Lion Electric Co (LEV) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone. Good morning, and welcome to the Lion Electric's first quarter 2022 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Isabelle Adjahi, Vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainable Development. Please go ahead, Ms. Adjahi.

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Lion’s first quarter 2022 results conference call (foreign language).

I am here with Marc Bedard, our CEO-Founder; and Nicolas Brunet, our EVP and CFO. Please note that our discussion will include estimates and other forward-looking information which could differ from the future. We invite you to review the cautionary language in yesterday's earnings release and (inaudible) regarding the various factors, assumptions and risks that could cause our actual results to differ.

With that, let me turn it over to Marc to begin. Marc?

Thank you, Isabelle and good morning, everyone. In a few days on the 7th, it will be exactly 1 year since we became a public company. From our first day of trading on the New York and Toronto stock exchanges each one of us at Lion has brought their very best foot forward to deliver on our growth strategy, which resulted in our Q1 22 performance. Today, I am pleased to report that first, despited the challenging supply chain environment, we continued to see significant improvements which translated into an accelerated pace of vehicle deliveries and resulted in us achieving a record number of quarterly vehicle deliveries. We expect continued gradual improvements in vehicle in vehicle deliveries over the coming quarters.

Second, we are accelerating CapEx investments and remain on track to start manufacturing U.S. built vehicles and Lion batteries in the second half of this year.

And third, the movement toward transport electrification continues to gain strong momentum as demonstrated by unprecedented government funding packages announced in the US and Canada, including the announcement last week of the first $500 million in funding under the EPA’s $5 billion clean school bus program. Lion is uniquely positioned to benefit from these fund packages.

I will now discuss those 3 elements before passing it on to Nicolas who will discuss our financial results for the quarter.

And please note, that I will also at times refer to specific pages in the deck. First we are pleased to report that in Q1, we continued our growth and achieved a record number of quarterly vehicle deliveries. 84 vehicles were delivered – 72 buses and 12 trucks as compared to 24 in Q1 of last year. With the supply chain improvements we have been able to achieve over the last 2 quarters, we are confident that the cadence of production and therefore the number of deliveries should gradually improve over the rest of the year.

Let me now spend a minute on our supply chain, a key element of our growth strategy. As you all know, we are fortunate to have a very robust supply chain tailored to our electric vehicles in which we have been operating for years, and this has been a key element in Lion maintaining a decent level of production despite the perfect storm we went through.

We continue to build our inventory for critical components, such as motors and batteries as these usually require longer lead time and are less subject to supplier redundancy. With more than 3000 batteries and 500 motors in inventory and more orders coming in at attractive prices for the remainder of the year, we are significantly reducing the potential risk of manufacturing delays. Considering the current environment, we believe this to be the right approach to de-risk our ramp up in vehicle production and deliveries, even if have to carry this inventory on our balance sheet.

With respect to the other components, although the supply chain is still quite fragile, we are seeing clear signs of improvement. Lead time for the delivery of most components, although still longer than usual, is now stable.

As one of our objectives is to continue to improve our supply chain for both the short and long term, we continue to focus on multi-sourcing to ensure we have different options for the majority of our parts. Today, we source from over 500 suppliers, most of them being in North America, in line with our strategy to develop a strong local EV supply chain.

As supply chain management is a key pillar in our growth strategy, we are please to have hired Dr. Jud Kenney as Senior Vice President of Procurement and Supply Chain. A longtime executive of Alstom, Bombardier Transportation and Pratt & Whitney, Jud has as more than 20 years’ experience in supply chain management. Jud is leading the development and implementation of best practices across our supply chain, as we focus on ramping up production while lowering unit cost. With respect to orders, our [PO] amounts to 2,422 vehicles consisting of 286 trucks and 2,136 buses. The represents a total order value of $600 million, and about 40% of these vehicles are deliverable in 2022.

We are very pleased by the continued strength of the school bus market, where the transition to EV is happening faster than expected. As you saw by our recent announcements, we are seeing more repeat and larger orders from our customers as they transition from initial orders to larger scale orders of electric stations. Order momentum in school buses in Canada is clearly supported by strong legislative tailwinds which I will discuss in a minute. We expect to experience an even bigger impact in the United States, especially now that the specifics of the initial funding under the EPA’s $5 billion Clean School Bus program became available last week. I will discuss this in greater detail but clearly, the funding available for electric school buses under this $5 billion program should expedite school bus electrification in the US, and our product offering is perfectly suited to this program.

In the truck market, we continue to have promising dialogue with potential customers as our electric truck are becoming more and more available. Large fleets are testing our vehicles and visiting our plants, which we are confident will translate into tangible orders.

We also like the momentum we are experiencing with truck outfitters as demonstrated by recent announcements with industrial leaders, such as Morgan Truck Body, Thermo King, Knapheide, CM Truck Beds and Transit. Similar to what we have done with Demers for the electric ambulance. These partnerships demonstrate the flexibility of our class 5 to class 8 purpose-built electric trucks that can easily adapt to any application. Outfitter partnerships fit perfectly in our channel sales model, where we can leverage the existing relationships and volumes at established outfitters to accelerate our market penetration.

Speaking of the class A truck, we will soon finalize and start the testing of our Lion [8T] with an objective to deliver customer units by the end of the year. Based on our current discussions with customers, we expect a very high demand for this vehicle, considering our estimate that 45% of the Class A tractor-trailer trucks in North America are currently operating under the urban range we offer.

Now, turning to our 2 new manufacturing facilities. Pictures of the Joliet plant and the Lion campus are available on Slides 8 and 9 of the deck. As you can see, we continue to make great progress at both locations. In Joliet, we have started receiving and installing equipment for the school bus production line, such as overhead cranes, while we are finalizing the construction of the interior of the building.

We are on track to start commercial production of buses in the second half of this year, which will enable us to keep up with the increased demand for our electric school buses. Equipment for truck production will be received later during the year, and production should start late this year, early next year. We remain fully focused on setting up our working stations for our buses, trucks, and chassis and continue to build our local team. As of today, about 25 plant managers and supervisors have already been hired, and we are also very active in the recruitment of our manufacturing employees. We expect a total workforce of about 500 employees in Joliet by the end of the year.

Let’s now come to the Lion campus, for which pictures are available on slide 9 of the Q1 deck. As of today, as you can see, we have fully completed the steel structure for the battery plant building, and approximately 40% of the building shell has been mounted. We have also poured most of the foundation for the Innovation Center and we'll now start mounting the steel structure.

In parallel to the construction of our battery plant, we have substantially completed the development of our proprietary battery modules and battery packs. The assembly line production of our batteries is also advancing on schedule. Our prototype module line has been installed at JR Automation's facility in Michigan and we are pleased to announce that we have produced our first prototype battery pack, which is currently being tested, an exercise we will, of course, repeat many times during the next few months. You can see a picture of this prototype pack on page 9 of the Q1 deck. Simultaneously, we are testing our commercial production line, which will first be installed and commissioned at JR Automation facility, and then transferred to our own battery plant. The start of battery production in Mirabel is planned for the second half of this year.

Let me now spend a minute on our existing manufacturing plants near Montreal. As you know, as we continue to progress on vehicle development, as well as on our Joliet plant and Lion campus, which I just discussed, we are also ramping up production at our 2 existing sites near Montreal. I am very pleased with the progress we're making on this front and despite the supply chain crisis we are facing, we expect production and vehicle deliveries to continue to increase over the coming quarters. We are in fact, investing millions of dollars to increase our production cadence as you can see in our cut of goods sold in our Q1 financial statements. While these investments obviously impact our short term gross margin and overall profitability, including in Q1, we are very confident that these investments will pay off in the near future as we continue to ramp up production to deliver on our growing order book.

Let’s now discuss the strong tailwinds we are seeing in the movement toward fleet electrification. More than ever, we can that wind of electrification is blowing at full speed as demonstrated by numerous announcements of highly attractive funding programs and legislation supporting transport electrification. Let me touch on a few examples starting in the United States. First, details of the first round of funding under the EPA's $5 billion Clean School Bus program were released last week. Under this program, priority districts can receive up to $375,000 in funding per electric school bus, which can represent up to 100% of our all-electric school bus price, while other eligible districts can receive up to $250,000 per electric bus, thus largely aligning the price of our electric bus to that of a conventional one. This is excellent use for Lion.

Given our leadership in the industry, our first-mover advantage, our close relationships with the largest operator and school districts and, of course, our upcoming Joliet plant, where we will manufacture made in America electric vehicles starting in the second half of this year. No other OEM is better positioned than Lion to assist school bus operators and school districts in leveraging this unprecedented 5 billion funding package.

Also, in addition to last year’s announcement by the city of New York that it will electrify 100% of its school bus fleet by 2035, New York governor Hochul recently announced that the state of New York will look to follow the same path and commit $1 billion to support EV adoption and infrastructure. The objective is for the 50,000 school buses on the road in the state to be zero-emission by 2035, with the requirement that all new school bus purchases be electric starting in 2027. In the same breath, Boston's mayor also announced a plan to replace over 700 school buses with electric alternatives by 2030.

I would also like to highlight our recently announced MOU with the U.S. Department of Energy to accelerate the use of electric vehicles such as ours to help balance the renewable power grid through vehicle-to-everything technology. We have been involved with several V2G projects throughout the years and are very proud to be the only school bus manufacturer to be asked to take part in this key project.

The final point on the U.S. market. We are pleased to announce that in March we submitted our first application for credits under the Advanced Clean Truck program in the United States. The Advanced Clean Truck program is a credit and deficit program which requires the sale of zero-emission or near-zero-emission medium and heavy-duty trucks. As a dedicated zero-emission medium and heavy-duty trucks manufacturer, we were eligible to start earning credits under the program with our 2021 models. We will be able to monetize the credits that we earn under this program by selling them to manufacturers in deficit.

Several states in the United States have already adopted the ACT rule and currently include California, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, New York and Massachusetts. As more states adopt the ACT rule and we continue to grow our production and sales, these credits have the potential to represent a significant source of revenue for Lion.

In Canada the recently announced budgets at both the federal and provincial levels also allocated significant amounts to EV adoption. The Canadian Federal Government committed to investing $547.5 million over the next 4 years to launch a new purchase incentive program for medium and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles. While Quebec [bona fide]its (inaudible) Model Trucking program and is now allocating up to $175,000 per electric truck. There is also a [15%] [bonification]for made-in-Quebec trucks, which brings the maximum grant amount to over $200,000, in the case of our Lion trucks.

Still in Canada, British Columbia expanded its LCFS program in January to enable owners of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure to also earn LCFS credits.

LCFS credits earned by operating Lion trucks and school buses can represent a very material source of revenue for our customers that could significantly improve the TCO advantage of our vehicles related to the diesel ones.

Speaking of which, the current environment and upward pressure on crude oil prices are clearly favoring the switch the electric vehicles. As you can see on page 11 of our deck, increasing the price of diesel fuel from $3.50 per gallon, the price we previously used in our TCO calculations, to $5 per gallon increases the estimated TCO benefits of our Lion6 to 35% and reduces the payback period to 5 years. Said differently, our Lion6 truck allows customers to add a significant amount on the total cost of ownership of the vehicle, even without taking into account the various subsidies that are available today. With that, let me now turn the call over to Nicolas, who will comment on our financial results.

Thank you, Marc. Before we jump into Q&A, let me give you a quick overview of Q1 2022 results. We were pleased with our Q1 2022 performance as we posted record quarterly vehicle deliveries in the history of our company with 84 vehicle deliveries. We posted revenues of $22.6 million in Q1, up $16.4 million as compared to $6.2 million last year. And were pleased to deliver 84 vehicles, that’s 72 buses and 12, trucks, a significant increase as compared to the 24 vehicles delivered in the same period last year.

80 of the Q1 2022 deliveries took place in Canada and 4 in the United States. Of note, the school bus unit mix for the quarter, as well as discounted pricing on certain trucks that were sold in the context of new product launch pricing impacted the average selling price per unit. Q1 2022 revenue generated from sales of Lion Energy and aftermarket parts were higher than in Q1 2021, but slightly lower than in Q4 2021. Our gross loss amounted to $0.9 million as compared to $1.8 million in Q1 2021. Costs of goods sold include multimillion dollar investments aimed at continuing to ramp up production. Said differently, COGS include costs that do not yet contribute to the top line.

Gross margin was also impacted by lower average selling prices per vehicle compared to Q4 2021, driven by specific unit mix for the quarter. Although we are pleased with Q1 deliveries in the current circumstances, the number of units delivered remains significantly below what we believe we can achieve with our current resources and manufacturing ramp-up investment. We however remained very encouraged by the unit-level economics and taking all this into consideration, we firmly believe that, in the long run, the Lion model scales very well and can generate attractive gross margin as we produce and sell more vehicles and expand on our vertical integration strategy such as the Lion batteries at our own battery plant.

Continuing with administrative expenses, they amounted to $11 million, including $2.8 million in noncash share-based compensation, an increase of $4.7 million as compared to $6.3 million in Q1 2021 and a modest increase as compared to Q4 2021, excluding share-based compensation. This was mainly the result of an increase in expenses reflecting Lion’s status as a public company and the expansion of Lion's head office capabilities in anticipation of an expected increase in business activity.

Selling expenses amounted to $5.4 million, including $1 million in noncash share-based compensation, an increase $1 million as compared to $4.4 million last year. The increase was primarily due to Lion expanding its sales force in anticipation of the ramp up of production capacity and increase in expenses as a result of the opening and operation of new experience centers.

Now turning to adjusted EBITDA which was negative $11.3 million for Q1. EBITDA for the quarter was impacted by the gross margin and, to a far lesser extent, by a small sequential increase in SG&A.

Let’s now discuss cash flow. Cash flow from operations for Q1 was negative $34 million inclusive of $21 million of changes in working capital as we continue to invest in working capital, specifically inventory, and prepare for a continued increase in production. We also invested $15 million in R&D and $35 in CapEx. Those amounts include $14 million for the Joliet plant and $17 million for the Lion campus.

We expect CapEx to continue to increase in the coming quarters as we progress with the construction of both plant. Last but not least, let me speak to select balance sheet items and liquidity.

First, we ended Q1 with $155 million in cash in addition to untapped government loan facilities for approximately $80 million for the Lion campus, 30% of which is forgivable. We also have access to committed revolving credit facility in the maximum principle about of $200 million. Altogether, we have access to liquidity of up to $435 million. In terms of the capital needs for our projects, we estimate a remaining $280 million to be spent on our 2 growth projects in order to reach full completion of both the Innovation Center and the Joliet plant.

In conclusion, we believe that we have a solid balance sheet, which provides us with significant runway and flexibility as we continue to focus on achieving our growth projects and ramping up our production. That said, we will remain very focused on the management of our cash resources. We will be very vigilant and always assess our options in regards to sources of capital.

The last point I would like to make is that as construction of the Lion campus is advancing, we have retained financial advisers to explore a sale, lease back of the battery plant building. Should we close this transaction, we expect the capital outlay for the construction of the building to decrease. With this, I will turn the call back to Marc.

Thanks, Nicolas. Before we open the lines for questions, let me mention again that we expect production and deliveries to continue to increase throughout the rest of the year. Also, we remain on track to start manufacturing U.S. built vehicles and Lion batteries in the second half of this year. And finally, we are uniquely positioned to benefit from unprecedented government funding in both the U.S. and Canada, and this should have a major impact on our already growing PO book. As you can see, we are more ready than anyone else to maintain and grow our leadership position in the EV market. Thanks.

Operator, we will now open the line for questions. I just want participants to know that we would appreciated if you limit to 2 the number of questions asked so that we – you can allow others to ask their questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Our first question is from Benoit Poirier from Desjardins.

In your presentation, you note some improvement in the supply chain. Could you provide some color about your vehicle ramp up (inaudible) and expectations for the Q2 and the full year. You mention about 40% of your backlog is deliverable in 2022. Should we assume about 900-1000 deliveries for the full year?

Yes, we're – we're glad. You know we did 84 – 84 deliveries in Q1 of this year. And as you just said, I mean, we're expecting, you know, that same kind of growth for the second quarter and we're seeing growth for the rest of the year. So big difference, you know, on the supply chain with what we saw in the – in the past is – is basically longer lead times.

So longer lead times. I said about 2 months, you know, in our last – in our, in our last call. And now we're saying, you know, it’s between 2 and 3 months and,, obviously, this is reflecting also in our -- the investment we're making in the inventory, you know, on the – on the balance sheet.

What is becoming a lot better though, is that, you know, the kind of crisis that we were seeing on a regular basis seems to disappear right now.

So it seems that you know, with the close dialogue we have with all the supplier, we can work with them and basically make sure, you know, that we will have all the components on the time needed and they matter. So that being said, though. everything is not being resolved. So we see that, you know, until the end of the year and probably, you know starting 2023 as well. I mean, those supply chain challenges will remain, but obviously they are becoming less and less an impact to our operations. So that’s – that’s very good news to ramp up.

So you know, I will not comment on the number of deliveries we will be making for the – for the whole year. But it’s looking very good and we see that Q2 will be better than Q1 and we're expecting, you know, that same kind of growth for the remainder of the year as well.

Okay. And looking at your gross margin, Nicolas, it's been negative in the quarter, although you mentioned color about higher overheads and fixed costs and also launch prices that were made. How should we be thinking about your growth margin going forward?

Benoit, yes, before I you know, pass it to – to Nick, maybe just one comment from me. What we're very pleased to see right now is the good – very good material margin that we have. So we have a very healthy material margin and that’s probably you know, the beginning when you want to show a good gross margin in your financial statements, right? And we've been seeing you know, information from companies we're competing with, and we saw at some point, you know, that their bill of materials were like higher that their selling prices and that's simply not the case at Lion so it's a sustainable healthy material margin that we're having right now, and yes, we made millions of dollars of investment in -- in basically in our labor and in our overhead as well. And so when we’re saying labor, we're, speaking, you know, like direct labor. We have the people to do 2/3 of our 2,500 units manufacturing capacity we have right now in – in Montreal.

So obviously that’s a major investment when you're -- when you're making like, you know, 80 – 85 units in the – or 84 units in a quarter. So major investment in labor, but also a major investment on everything else. Like you know, we do have the equipment for the 2500 units. We do have the space as well and we do have all the indirect costs as well and all the indirect labor.

So the team of people is there and ready to do those 2,500 units right now. And when we're saying we're making millions of investments in our -- in our manufacturing capacity and this is obviously hitting, you know, the gross margin, we'll in Q1, but that’s going to keep you know, hitting the gross margin for the next quarters as well. That’s exactly what we mean. So, Nick if you want to add anything?

No. I think you covered it well, Marc. The only thing I’d reiterate is what's important to our cost hitting P&L today that are not contributing to the top line as Marc detailed and, of most importance, is that the model scales well. The economic model scales well. The unit-level economics are, we believe, very attractive and as we continue to grow, we expect to see significant improvement in those margins over time.

Our next question is from Jed Dorsheimer from Canaccord Genuity.

My two are related. The first is ASPs look like they're coming down. And I'm wondering why that is given how favorable the subsidy situation is for your – your products and do you see that stabilizing? And then I have one follow up.

Yes, maybe I could take those and I'll speak to you. The ASP is really a factor of unit mix for the quarter. So it really is, you know, there was certainly decrease for the given mix that we sold for the year, but it’s a matter of, you know, mix versus the previous quarter. There is the -- we highlighted in the quarter there's a slight decrease as well just on a sequential basis in terms of the Lion Energy and parts sales which probably makes the implied ASP difference higher than it actual, but bottom line, it’s a unit – it’s a matter of unit mix. I’d also say, and I want to come back to the point that the incremental margin or material margin on each of these sales for the unit mix was also very healthy and so do expect something similar in terms of unit mix for the coming quarter but, again, it scales well from a gross margin standpoint.

Got it. So suffice to say, particular on the buses with such a – with up to 100% subsidized, there will be a stable ASP in that, and I do have – you know, and then my follow up question is related to the schedule of the warrant conversion from Amazon. Is that on a regimented basis. And I ask this because there was another -- there’s another company I cover that had a similar mechanism, and Amazon was the company there. And given the subsidies combined with the warrants, it almost seems like they're getting, ostensibly, a free vehicle, so why wouldn't a forced conversion occur of that sooner, which would help your cash needs too.

Yes, the terms of the warrants with Amazon is that if you recall, they have access to 35 million share of warrants of Lion's when fully vested. 5 million of that is vested and the remaining 30, in order to vest, it's related to spend. In order for the whole 30 million shares to vest, they would need to spend $1.1 billion on our -- on our products and it sort of vests as they spend essentially. Look, we're -- we obviously agreed that it’s an attractive proposition in so many ways and we're -- but that said, you know, our disclosure around Amazon will be around big orders if and when they happen and warrant vesting and so I'll leave it at that as it relates to the potential.

Our next question is from Brian Johnson from Barclays.

Two related questions. It got lost on most investors that battery mineral prices are spiking and some manufacturers are beginning to slow those the cost. So I think 2 questions, kind of 1, have you seen any impact -- well, one is, you know, given you quoted on trucks and buses, is there risk to the unit economics -- and thank you for the comments earlier on that -- as the -- if minerals stay where they are, are you well covered at least on the order book for pricing. And then 2, given not just battery costs but a lot of other materials are inflating. Given your long backlog, how are you working with your customers on price or price bands or price indexing going forward?

Yes. Couple of things, Brian, in particular, first on the batteries. And you'll recall that we have over 3,000 BMW batteries on the -- the -- in inventory today and we have significant orders coming through the rest of the year. Those are part of a purchase commitment that was made a certain while ago and, certainly prior to the spikes in pricing. So we feel that the pricing we have on batteries is quite attractive relative to what else we're seeing currently, and covers us very well for a big chunk of the order book.

It’s also important to keep in mind that we are working eventually to transition most of our own batteries. And despite the increase in materials which translates, of course, in higher sale prices, just the benefits of vertical integration and also of, you know, paying margins to third parties at the pack level are such that we view in the coming years an important decrease in the cost of our batteries.

Now as it relates to inflation on the rest of the bill of materials, so far, I mean, there is obviously inflationary pressure; so far, it’s been well contained in great part because we have overstocked a number of supplies. At the same time, we're seeing inflationary pressure, we're also working on a cost-out program that’s related to scale up; it’s related to design and certain elements. And so those 2 are -- you know, are mitigating each other significantly. We -- our intention obviously, is to continue to bring the cost of the vehicle down and in the long term, bring vehicle pricing down, but to be very clear should -- should the inflationary pressure be such that it requires an increase of our vehicle prices in line with inflation, there’s nothing that prevents us from doing that.

Our next question is from Rupert Merer from National Bank.

With some stability in the supply chain now, are there any specific bottlenecks for production you can identify or -- or do you still have many issues in flux? And related to that, is it possible with -- with some improvements in supply chain, you could see a step change to production rather than the more kind of gradual or -- or steady improvement?

Yes, well, Rupert, that’s a good question, and obviously, you know, we're trying to deliver as fast as possible on those orders, I mean, as customers are requesting them, which is great. Well, it needs to be -- you know, it needs to be kind of gradual. You cannot just, you know, turn the switch on and, you know, like just triple the -- you know, the number of units you can -- you can manufacture. I mean it’s a supply chain of over 500 suppliers and the less critical components are, let's say, as critical as the critical like the EV components such as batteries and motors and all of that. So we have an approach where, you know, we built the foundation, we built everything. And from month to month, we are increasing the manufacturing pace to be at a very high level before long. So no, it’s not easy like to do, like in major steps all of a sudden – all of a sudden, I’m sorry. But you know, the kind of gradual but, when we're gradual, it could be kind of a very, you know, speedy increase as well.

And this is what we're shooting for. As I said earlier, I mean, we see that Q2 we're expecting you know, that same kind of growth that we saw in Q1 but then obviously we're shooting for Q3 and Q4 to grow at -- at the much you know, higher -- higher pace if possible.

All right. Great. And then another dynamic here, if I look at the -- the difference between orders and deliveries in the U.S. and Canada, we had deliveries for U.S. down a bit this quarter. Can you -- can you talk about this dynamic and maybe how much of your order book in the U.S.? How important is this for your product to be made in the U.S. to get U.S. sales? And could we see a step change in -- in your U.S. business as Joliet picks up?

Yes. Rupert let me – yes, let me start on this one. When the Biden government came into -- you know, into power, basically everybody was expecting you know, there were subsidies that, you know, that they just announced last week. And it seems like the market was kind of on a hold for about a year. So there was, I mean, getting the orders in the last year, I mean, was quite challenging on the U.S. side because everybody was expecting the, you know, this $500 billion deployment, I mean, to take -- to happen. So the news that happened last week with this $500 [million] which is you know, like the first tranche is great. And so this $5 billion is going to be deployed over the next few years and this is a great news.

And now we see that this momentum is going back. And as you know, we're the clear leader in electric school buses in North America and then you know, right now I mean obviously, you know, we're in -- we're in the middle of a dialogue with the largest operator and also with the school districts to capture you know, as much as possible of this $500 million.

So we will see, in my opinion, obviously you know, the orders from U.S. operators really increase going forward. So that was a great, great news last week that we've been waiting, waiting for a long, long time. That means that, though, on the Canadian side, it's still going very well. I mean, you know, the ZETF is taking place right now. So this is -- we see a lot of momentum that continues in sight still. So it seems like the school bus market, as I was saying earlier this morning, is kind of -- the electric school bus, you know, is kind of going even faster, you know, than what we were expecting on the truck side. Well, the truck side in general, not only in the U.S. but has been slower than -- than expected. It seems, I mean, that probably within the last year or maybe within the 18 months as well,

the market was kind of focused on something else. So those truck operators, let's say the last month, for example, they were having you know, great results. They were -- they have been very busy, but at the same, the whole world you know, was focused with those crises. You know, the crises with COVID and then you know, the supply chain crisis, obviously, that was partly coming from that. And you know, the war kicked in right after. So the truck market was very, it seems focused on something else. And now we're seeing very good signs in the dialogues we're having you know, with the truck operators that this is coming back. So it’s been slower than expected. But keep in mind, that the truck market is ten times bigger than the bus market.

And the U.S. market is ten times bigger than the Canadian market. So with everything I’m saying, we're seeing that the U.S. market, I think, you know, is going to be very promising either for the trucks and also for both, you know, for the -- for the buses as well. And it seems that, you know, finally the truck market is catching up, right now, which is great.

And then, you know, the last part of your question was about the made-in-America buses and trucks. Well, honestly I think that’s going to help. I think that’s really going to help. I mean you -- I know we've been thinking like this you know, for a while also you know, in the discussions we have. And we feel the same way that you know, we -- I mean, this is really going to expedite ourselves on the -- on the U.S. side. And the good news is that you know, we will be starting this very shortly, second half of this year we're starting with the buses and then we'll follow up with the trucks. So to your point, we feel that this is going to be like a stepping stone for us on the U.S. side without a doubt.

Our next question is from Mark Neville from Scotiabank.

Maybe just first on the backlog. When you say 40% are deliverable in 2022, what exactly does that mean? And I guess my question is, if the chunk of those deliveries slip into 2023, is there any penalty or risk to Lion?

Yes, the 40% deliverables, that means that, you know, the customers, I mean, they want them. They would like them in 2022 so which is the good news because we do have the orders and as per our agreement, you know, they could take them in 2022. So this is what it means. So they are basically requesting those products. We're having very good close dialogues with all of our customers. They do understand, you know, the challenges we're going through with the supply chain, obviously.

And to your -- to your point, I mean, is there any orders we can lose? If there are any, they are very minor. There are some dates, you know, with some of the subsidies but you know, it’s kind of – it’s kind of minor, so I will say, you know, we don't want to lose any orders, but I will say you know, it’s not material. Is there any penalties? Nothing I’m aware of. There’s no penalties, Mark.

Okay. Maybe on the CapEx. I think you said $280 million is the rest to complete your 2 projects. Is my math right that roughly $165 million is this year?

It's a little bit over $180 million would be this year, Mark.

Okay. And in terms of the government support that you're getting for Lion campus, the $80 million. I'm just curious, how exactly does that work? Is that fully available now, is it sort of based on the number of people you hire? I’m just sort of curious how sort of broad strokes, how you get access to that money?

Yes, broad strokes as it’s related to the spend of the Innovation Center. Well, yes, not the Innovation Center, excuse me, the Lion campus altogether. It’s a little more complicated than, than just that, but -- but by and large, it's margining on that spend, if you will. And the 2 agreements are different, but some of them are limited in the number of draws we can make. And so we do expect the first draw to occur in Q2, and it’s going to be gradual as we spend on the project, the project being the campus.

Our next question is from Michael Glen from Raymond James.

Just to start circling to the EPA program that's in place. Is there a made in the USA aspect to this program with the school buses?

It's our understanding that there will be. In any case for us, it will be so the intention is to build everything that we sell out of this program out of the Joliet plant.

Does that have any potential implications for the battery modules as well going over the border?

No, we don't believe that. In fact, we think we're in a unique spot here because we control what goes into the battery plant. We need the cells. We source the cells. We produce the battery. We don’t see many -- well, we don’t see any school bus OEM’s out there that are doing that. Obviously, there isn't right now a source of local cells but, put it this way, we think our battery will be the most North American there is certainly and can be -- you know, can be also built eventually with U.S.-sourced cells when those are available.

Okay and then on the $200 million facility what -- can you describe the covenants or the -- any sort of usage dynamic we should think about with respect to that $200 million facility?

Yes. It’s an -- it’s an -- call it an ABL facility. It really is meant to scale up with working capital based on inventory, based on receivables. There are no significant -- or no financial covenants until there’s a spring when the facility is close to being either full margin or fully used so it does provide not only attractive pricing but quite a bit of flexibility, and it’s -- you know, it’s well-suited to our model which is still working capital intensive and so we certainly like the instrument.

Our next question is from Jonathan Lamers from BMO Capital Markets.

Marc, on the truck outfitter partnerships that have been announced recently, how are you thinking about the development timelines for those and when could we see more trucks on offer, you know, potentially supporting stronger orders?

Yes, well, this is happening right now, Jonathan, I mean, as -- when we made the announcement, I mean, we had our truck with outfitters equipment installed on top of that. So we're talking about, you know, Morgan, Thermo King, Knapheide, CM Truck Beds, and with Transit as well. So we have those 5 truck outfitters, and the -- the equipment is you know, working very well with our trucks. And those were, with the Lions6, but there could be some usage you know, on the Lions – on the Lion8 as well. And also just a reminder, Jonathan, that you know, same thing is happening with the [refuse] truck as well. So the refuse truck, the first ones will be delivered very shortly. And the same thing. I mean, we've been working for years to make sure that the batteries are installed in way that outfitters could install their equipment without adding you know, to modify what they are -- what they are doing. So it’s almost a plug and play for them because of all the work that's being done within the last years. And I think you know, this is something that -- well, obviously that’s a major benefit of the purpose build.

The electric trucks we've -- we are doing but this is a major advantage that those outfitters are enjoying right now.

Thanks. And in the context of the new EPA funding to school district customers which is quite positive, would you have an update on Lion’s market share in the zero-emissions school bus market for 2021?

Yes, but, look, by our estimates, we're the number one player in the electric space. We look at registration, and we’d be, let’s say by a certain margin the largest player. We've been selling, as you know, on both sides of the border and feel that we're in a good position from a product, from a credibility Salesforce standpoint in order to (inaudible).

Our next question is from Nauman Satti from Laurentian Bank.

I think you mentioned that if there is a ramp-up, it’s going to be a gradual one. I’m just wondering if -- if let’s say the supply chain issues subside, you're not there. How long would it take you to sort of get to that 2/3 of the capacity? Is it like 5 months, 6 months? Or is it a longer period for you to ramp that up?

Yes, well that’s a good -- that’s a good question, Nauman. So with all the supply chain, you know, challenges, it will take -- it will take you know, a few months to run that up because you know, we do have the people, which is, you know, all these are a major challenge for most of the -- for most manufacturing companies. We do have 2/3 of the people right now, and also we do have the manufacturing equipment. So we do have the manufacturing capacity to do this as we speak. And the only reason we're not able to do that right now is because of the supply chain issues.

So if it was not you know, because of the supply chain issues, it will be in a few months.

Okay. No, that’s fair. And maybe just a second one. Can you provide some additional sort of color about -- around your potential vehicle sales pipeline right now and how that's faring this last quarter?

Yes, can you repeat the question? Vehicle sales, line?

Pipeline.

Pipeline?

Yes.

Yes, look maybe I'll pick this one up. And there’s a bit of feedback on your line, Nauman. But we -- look, we're very pleased with the dialogue with the truck companies as we mentioned.We look forward to this converting into purchase orders and we talked about the strong momentum in the school bus space with the ZETF, with the EPA program among just the -- you know, some of the very attractive programs that are out there.

What we report though is really just the purchase order book and we aim to be very disciplined about how we go about this so we're not going to comment on specific numbers as it relates to the you know, the selling activities and the pipeline, but we'll say we feel very good and see strong momentum.

We have our last question from Benoit as a follow-up.

So could you maybe provide color about the potential behind the sale of zero emission, what it could represent over the next 2 or 3 years?

Are you talking about credits specifically, Ben?

Yes, yes, yes. Exactly. Exactly.

Yes. Yes. So under the Advanced Clean Truck program -- as a reminder, this is a program where a number of states have, I think it was 16, which had signed an MOU to follow suit, to follow California’s leadership around making zero-emissions, setting specific ratios of zero-emissions vehicle sales including medium and heavy duty throughout the years leading to specific objectives in 2035 and 2040 and under which there would be a credit and fine system whereby, if you don't meet these ratios, you need to pay a fine or purchase a credit. And then if you exceed those ratios, i.e. if you sell more EVs than is required to, and I'm talking about the OEM’s here, then you would get a credit and you could sell those credits.

Now, these specific ratios don’t kick in before 2024 but the accumulation of credits have started. We have sold a little bit over 40 vehicles in those given states last year, and we are in the process of qualifying those sales. And so we're very early in this process, but it’s obviously very encouraging for us that we're already accumulating those credits.

We don’t have a good sense of the market price of those credits just yet so I won't provide a specific estimate. But as you know, other EV OEM’s have done very well with those credits. They can be a very attractive source of revenue and I’d say revenue and margins because they don’t come with any extra costs for us. It’s really credits we get for doing what we're already doing. And all of our vehicle sales will pretty much qualify because we just sell EV’s. And so it’s got an interesting potential, very interesting potential but we're just at the beginning for now.

That’s great color. And obviously, when we look on the financial standpoint, you mentioned great color about your available liquidity and CapEx and I’m just wondering about the inventory bills. How should we be thinking with respect to the potential inventory bill for 2022 and how the booking activity is important with respect to cash advance to offset the increase in working capital?

Yes. They're good questions. You will have seen a reduction in the amount that we invested in working capital in the last quarter. Obviously, the objective is to sort of grow into our working cap requirement, if you will. You know, it’s said differently to have working cap investments yield a lesser and lesser proportion of sales over time. That said, I mentioned earlier that we need in the current environment to stock, let’s say, overstock on batteries and, in some cases on motors and other critical components. So we do expect some variability going forward in the working capital needs. We do expect to continue to invest in working capital.

And to your last question, we don't depend on customer advances to fund our activities. I mean there are generally no advances in the school bus space. And there could be some in some circumstances in the trucks but it’s not a financing tool for us.

Well, thanks. And that’s all the time we have for today as we have a longstanding commitment. So thank to everyone for joining the call. We look forward to continuing the discussion and feel free to contact me for any follow up questions you may have. You have a nice day. Thanks.

Thank you, everyone for joining today’s call. You may now disconnect your lines and have a lovely day.