Lincoln Electric Holdings Inc (LECO) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Lincoln Electric 2025 third-quarter financial results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute and this call is being recorded. It's my pleasure to introduce your host, Amanda Butler, Vice President of Investor Relations and Communications. Thank you, and you may begin.

各位好，歡迎參加林肯電氣2025年第三季財務業績電話會議。所有線路均已靜音，本次通話正在錄音。我很榮幸向大家介紹主持人，投資人關係與傳播副總裁阿曼達‧巴特勒。謝謝，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Janice, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Lincoln Electric's third-quarter 2025 conference call. We released our financial results earlier today, and you can find our release and this call slide presentation at lincolnelectric.com in the Investor Relations section.

謝謝你，珍妮絲，大家早安。歡迎參加林肯電氣2025年第三季電話會議。我們今天早些時候發布了財務業績，您可以在 lincolnelectric.com 的投資者關係部分找到我們的新聞稿和本次電話會議的幻燈片簡報。

Joining me on the call today is Steve Hedlund, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; as well as Gabe Bruno, our Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we're happy to take your questions.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的有我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長史蒂夫·赫德倫，以及我們的財務長加布·布魯諾。在我們發言完畢後，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

But before we start our discussion, please note that certain statements made during this call may be forward-looking and actual results may differ materially from our expectations due to a number of risk factors and uncertainties, which are provided in our press release and in our SEC filings on Forms 10-K and 10-Q.

但在我們開始討論之前，請注意，本次電話會議中作出的某些陳述可能具有前瞻性，實際結果可能由於許多風險因素和不確定性而與我們的預期存在重大差異，這些風險因素和不確定性已在我們的新聞稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格文件中提供。

In addition, we discussed financial measures that do not conform to US GAAP. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measure is found in the financial tables in our earnings release, which, again, you can find on our Investor Relations website at lincolnelectric.com.

此外，我們也討論了不符合美國通用會計準則的財務指標。您可以在我們獲利報告的財務表格中找到非 GAAP 指標與最可比較 GAAP 指標的調整表，該表格同樣可以在我們的投資者關係網站 lincolnelectric.com 上找到。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Steve Hedlund. Steve?

接下來，我將把電話交給史蒂夫·赫德倫。史蒂夫？

Thank you, Amanda. Good morning, everyone. Turning to slide 3. We reported solid third-quarter results this morning. Sales increased 8%, driven by pricing, benefits from our M&A strategy, and resilient demand for short-cycle portions of our product portfolio in the Americas Welding and Harris Products Group segments.

謝謝你，阿曼達。各位早安。翻到第三張幻燈片。今天早上我們公佈了穩健的第三季業績。銷售額成長了 8%，這得益於定價策略、併購策略帶來的收益，以及美洲焊接和哈里斯產品集團部門對短週期產品組合的強勁需求。

While we are still navigating a period of challenged capital spending in our automation portfolio and sluggish demand in the EMEA region, our results demonstrate the strength of our operating model. We are effectively offsetting inflation and volume headwinds through commercial and operational agility.

儘管我們仍在努力應對自動化產品組合的資本支出挑戰以及歐洲、中東和非洲地區需求疲軟的時期，但我們的業績證明了我們營運模式的優勢。我們透過商業和營運的靈活性有效地抵消了通貨膨脹和銷售下滑帶來的不利影響。

We are achieving our targeted neutral price cost position and generated an incremental $8 million in permanent savings this quarter. This resulted in both higher gross profit and operating income margins, a 15% increase in our adjusted earnings per share performance, and record cash flow generation with 149% cash conversion.

我們實現了既定的中性價格成本目標，並在本季度實現了 800 萬美元的永久性額外節省。這使得毛利和營業收入率均有所提高，調整後每股收益成長了 15%，現金轉換率達到 149%，創下現金流紀錄。

Our strategic investments and operating model continue to compound earnings, are delivering top quartile ROIC performance, and are supporting a balanced capital allocation strategy that invests in long-term growth while returning cash to shareholders through the cycle.

我們的策略性投資和營運模式持續提升獲利能力，實現了前四分之一的投資回報率，並支持均衡的資本配置策略，該策略既投資於長期成長，又透過週期性波動向股東返還現金。

Let's turn to slide 4 to discuss organic sales performance in the third quarter and into October. Organic sales increased 5.6% on higher price and narrowing volume declines. Volumes reflected ongoing stabilization and the demand for our short-cycle consumables, most notably in Americas and the Harris Products Group segments, as well as in our North American industrial gas distribution channel.

讓我們翻到第 4 張投影片，討論第三季及 10 月份的有機銷售業績。受價格上漲和銷量下滑幅度收窄的影響，有機銷售額成長了5.6%。銷售量反映了持續的穩定以及對我們短週期消耗品的需求，尤其是在美洲和哈里斯產品集團部門，以及我們在北美的工業氣體分銷管道。

An encouraging area of improvement was the low-single-digit percent volume growth we achieved in welding equipment in the Americas, which has shown continued momentum in October. Our automation portfolio continues to be challenged from deferred capital spending in the automotive and heavy industry sectors.

令人鼓舞的是，我們在美洲的焊接設備銷量實現了個位數百分比的成長，並且在 10 月繼續保持了這一成長勢頭。由於汽車和重工業領域的資本支出推遲，我們的自動化產品組合持續面臨挑戰。

In the third quarter, we generated approximately $200 million in global automation sales. This was slightly below expectations and primarily due to project timing, which will be recognized in the fourth quarter. We were encouraged by a broad increase in automation order rates in late September and through October. If this trend continues, we expect fourth-quarter automation sales to be approximately 15% to 20% higher sequentially but still below last year's sales level.

第三季度，我們的全球自動化銷售額約為 2 億美元。這略低於預期，主要是由於專案進度安排，這將在第四季度得到體現。9 月下旬至 10 月期間，自動化訂單量普遍成長，這令我們倍感鼓舞。如果這一趨勢持續下去，我們預計第四季度自動化銷售額將比上一季成長約 15% 至 20%，但仍低於去年同期的銷售水準。

Looking at end-market organic sales trend, we continue to see three of our five end-markets, representing approximately 60% of revenue, achieving steady to higher organic sales growth in the quarter. While largely price driven, we did achieve volume growth across general industries, the HVAC sector, and in midstream energy.

從終端市場有機銷售趨勢來看，我們五個終端市場中的三個（約佔收入的 60%）在本季度繼續實現穩定或更高的有機銷售成長。雖然主要受價格因素驅動，但我們在一般工業、暖通空調產業和中游能源領域都實現了銷售成長。

Construction infrastructure organic sales were steady in the quarter from a high-single-digit percent increase in Americas, which was offset internationally. Heavy industries' organic sales trends improved on easier prior-year comparisons, price and higher customer production activity in construction and agricultural equipment, which we are encouraged to see.

本季建築基礎設施有機銷售額保持穩定，美洲地區實現了高個位數百分比的成長，但國際市場的成長抵消了這一成長。由於去年同期基數較低、價格上漲以及建築和農業設備客戶生產活動增加，重工業的有機銷售趨勢有所改善，我們對此感到鼓舞。

While automotive remained challenged due to slow capital spending, we are pleased to see consumable volume growth outpace domestic production rates in Americas. We are encouraged by the industry's latest October model launch survey that points to a reacceleration in new model launch plans through 2029.

儘管由於資本支出緩慢，汽車行業仍然面臨挑戰，但我們很高興地看到，美洲的消費品銷售成長速度超過了國內生產速度。我們對業內最新的 10 月車型發布調查感到鼓舞，該調查顯示，到 2029 年，新車型發布計劃將再次加速。

This aligns with an increase in long-cycle automation orders we closed in October. If this momentum continues, it's just an inflection to growth for auto capital spending in our business in early- to mid-2026.

這與我們在 10 月完成的長週期自動化訂單數量的增加相吻合。如果這種勢頭持續下去，那麼到 2026 年初至中期，我們業務的汽車資本支出將迎來成長的轉捩點。

To summarize, before passing the call to Gabe, we are in the final quarter of our five-year higher standard 2025 strategy. Our global team has done an outstanding job over five very dynamic years that have spanned a global pandemic and a global trade war. I am proud that our initiatives have delivered and we are on track to achieve most of our financial and sustainability targets.

總而言之，在將電話交給 Gabe 之前，我們正處於五年高標準 2025 策略的最後一個季度。在過去五年充滿變數的歲月裡，我們的全球團隊出色地完成了工作，這五年間我們經歷了全球疫情和全球貿易戰。我為我們各項舉措所取得的成效感到自豪，我們正朝著實現大部分財務和永續發展目標穩步邁進。

Since 2020, our strategy baseline year, our operating income margin has increased 500 basis points and has averaged 16% across that time frame, which is on target. Our earnings have more than doubled at a high-teens percent annual compounded growth rate, and we have generated over 165% in total shareholder returns through the third quarter. Our relentless focus on serving customers, driving innovation and continuous improvement, and winning together positions the company for superior performance in the next growth cycle.

自 2020 年（我們的策略基準年）以來，我們的營業利潤率提高了 500 個基點，在此期間平均達到 16%，符合目標。我們的收益以接近百分之十幾的年複合成長率翻了一番多，截至第三季末，我們已為股東創造了超過 165% 的總回報。我們始終堅持以服務客戶、推動創新和持續改進以及攜手共贏為核心，使公司在下一個成長週期中取得優異的業績。

And now I will pass the call to Gabe Bruno to cover third-quarter financials in more detail.

現在我將把電話交給 Gabe Bruno，讓他更詳細地介紹第三季的財務狀況。

Thank you, Steve. Moving to slide 5. Our third-quarter sales increased 7.9% to $1.061 billion from 7.8% higher price, a 1.7% benefit from acquisitions, and 60 basis points from favorable foreign exchange translation. These increases were partially offset by 2.2% lower volumes.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。切換到第5張投影片。第三季銷售額成長 7.9% 至 10.61 億美元，其中價格上漲 7.8%，收購帶來 1.7% 的成長，外匯匯率有利帶來 60 個基點的成長。這些成長被銷量下降 2.2% 部分抵消。

Gross profit dollars increased approximately 11% to $389 million, and gross profit margin expanded 90 basis points to 36.7%, a $2.5 million benefit from our savings actions, as well as diligent cost management and operational initiatives substantially offset the impact of lower volumes and a $5 million LIFO charge in the quarter. We expect a similar LIFO trend in the fourth quarter.

毛利增長約 11% 至 3.89 億美元，毛利率增長 90 個基點至 36.7%，節省成本的措施帶來了 250 萬美元的收益，而認真的成本管理和運營舉措也基本抵消了本季度銷量下降和 500 萬美元後進先出費用的影響。我們預期第四季也會出現類似的後進先出（LIFO）趨勢。

SG&A expense increased 11% or approximately $21 million versus the prior year, primarily from a challenging prior-year comparison due to lower employee costs. In the prior year, we had a decrease in variable costs associated with incentive compensation programs as well as an approximate $7 million adjustment to long-term performance-based incentive programs. The year-over-year increase was partially offset by a $6 million benefit from our permanent savings actions. SG&A expense as a percent of sales was 19.5%, in line sequentially.

銷售、一般及行政費用較上年增長 11%，約 2,100 萬美元，主要原因是去年同期員工成本較低，導致年比基數較高。上一年，與激勵性薪酬計畫相關的變動成本有所下降，同時對長期績效激勵計畫進行了約 700 萬美元的調整。年比增幅被我們永久性節約措施帶來的 600 萬美元收益部分抵消。銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的百分比為 19.5%，與上一季持平。

Reported operating income increased 21%. The year-over-year increase primarily reflects special item charges in the prior-year period. Excluding special items, adjusted operating income increased approximately 9% to $185 million. Our adjusted operating income margin increased 10 basis points to 17.4%, reflecting a 19% incremental margin.

報告顯示，營業收入成長了21%。與上年同期相比的成長主要反映了上年同期的特殊項目費用。剔除特殊項目後，調整後的營業收入成長約 9%，達到 1.85 億美元。經調整後的營業利潤率提高了 10 個基點，達到 17.4%，利潤率提高了 19%。

We reported an effective tax rate of 26.1%, which is 250 basis points higher versus prior year, primarily from an approximate $9 million special item tax expense from the election of provisions from the One Big Beautiful Act. This election also reduces tax payments by approximately $25 million per quarter, starting in the third quarter and through the first quarter of 2026. Excluding special items, our effective tax rate was 21.1%, which was a 250-basis-point improvement versus the prior year.

我們報告的實際稅率為26.1%，比上年高出250個基點，主要原因是根據《統一美好未來法案》（One Big Beautiful Act）的規定選擇適用相關條款而產生的約900萬美元的特殊項目稅項支出。此外，從第三季開始至2026年第一季度，該選擇還將使每季的稅款支出減少約2,500萬美元。除特殊項目外，我們的實際稅率為 21.1%，比前一年提高了 250 個基點。

We reported third-quarter diluted earnings per share of $2.21. On an adjusted basis, EPS increased 15% to $2.47. Our EPS results include a $0.07 benefit from share repurchases and a $0.01 unfavorable impact from foreign exchange translation.

我們公佈的第三季稀釋後每股收益為2.21美元。經調整後，每股收益成長15%至2.47美元。我們的每股盈餘結果包括股票回購帶來的0.07美元收益和外匯折算帶來的0.01美元不利影響。

Moving to our reportable segments on slide 6. Americas Welding sales increased approximately 9% driven by 9.6% higher price and a 1.4% contribution from our Vanair acquisition, which anniversaried August 1. Volume declines narrowed to approximately 2%.

接下來是第 6 頁的報告分部。美洲焊接業務的銷售額增長了約 9%，這主要得益於價格上漲 9.6% 以及我們收購 Vanair 帶來的 1.4% 的增長，該收購於 8 月 1 日完成。銷量降幅收窄至約 2%。

The increase in price reflects actions taken through the first half of the year to address rising input costs that fully matured in the third quarter. We anticipate price levels to hold sequentially in the fourth quarter. We will continue to monitor trade policy decisions and take appropriate actions as needed.

價格上漲反映了今年上半年為應對不斷上漲的投入成本而採取的措施，這些措施在第三季度完全顯現出來。我們預計第四季價格水準將與上一季持平。我們將繼續關注貿易政策決策，並根據需要採取適當行動。

Americas Welding segment's third-quarter adjusted EBIT increased 5% to $132 million. The adjusted EBIT margin declined 60 basis points to 18.2%, primarily due to the challenging prior-year comparison from lower employee costs related to incentive compensation programs previously discussed and lower automation volumes.

美洲焊接業務部門第三季調整後息稅前利潤成長 5% 至 1.32 億美元。經調整後的息稅前利潤率下降 60 個基點至 18.2%，主要原因是去年同期員工成本因先前討論過的激勵性薪酬計劃而降低，以及自動化量下降。

These factors offset the benefits of diligent cost management and $4 million in permanent savings. We expect Americas welding to continue to operate in the 18% to 19% EBIT margin range for the remainder of the year.

這些因素抵消了認真進行成本管理所帶來的好處以及400萬美元的永久性節省。我們預計美洲焊接業務在今年剩餘時間內將繼續維持 18% 至 19% 的息稅前利潤率。

Moving to slide 7. The International Welding segment sales increased 1.6% and is an approximate 4% benefit from our Alloy Steel acquisition and 2% favorable foreign exchange translation were partially offset by 4% lower volumes. Volume compression narrowed in the quarter on prior-year comparisons and growth pockets in Asia Pacific, including high-single-digit percent growth in China. The segment continued to navigate challenged European demand trends.

切換到第7張投影片。國際焊接業務部門銷售額成長 1.6%，其中約 4% 的成長得益於合金鋼收購，2% 的有利匯率變動被 4% 的銷售下降部分抵銷。與去年同期相比，本季銷量壓縮幅度有所收窄，亞太地區部分地區實現了成長，其中中國市場實現了接近兩位數的百分比成長。該業務板塊繼續應對充滿挑戰的歐洲需求趨勢。

Adjusted EBIT increased approximately 29% to $26 million. Margin increased 230 basis points to a more normalized rate of 11.3%, which reflects mix, seasonality, and $3 million of permanent savings. We expect International Welding's margin performance to continue to operate in the 11% to 12% range for the balance of the year.

調整後息稅前利潤成長約 29%，達到 2,600 萬美元。利潤率提高了 230 個基點，達到更正常的 11.3%，這反映了產品組合、季節性因素以及 300 萬美元的永久性節省。我們預計國際焊接公司今年剩餘時間的利潤率將繼續保持在 11% 至 12% 的範圍內。

Moving to the Harris Products Group on slide 8. Third-quarter sales increased 15% with 2% higher volumes and nearly 12% higher price. Volumes reflect HVAC sector strength this year and our expanded retail channel presence. We expect softening HVAC production in the fourth quarter. Price continued to increase on metal costs and price actions taken to mitigate rising input costs.

前往第 8 張投影片上的哈里斯產品集團。第三季銷售額成長15%，其中銷量成長2%，價格上漲近12%。銷量反映了今年暖通空調行業的強勁勢頭以及我們不斷擴大的零售通路業務。我們預計第四季暖通空調設備的產量將會下降。金屬成本持續上漲，同時為緩解投入成本上漲所採取的價格措施也推高了價格。

Adjusted EBIT increased approximately 28% to $28 million, and margin improved 190 basis points to a record 18.3% on volume growth, effective cost management, and strategic initiatives. The Harris segment is expected to operate in the 16% to [7%] range for the balance of the year due to seasonality and reduced HVAC production activity previously mentioned.

經調整後的息稅前利潤成長約 28% 至 2,800 萬美元，利潤率提高 190 個基點，達到創紀錄的 18.3%，這得益於銷售成長、有效的成本管理和策略性舉措。由於季節性因素和前面提到的HVAC生產活動減少，預計Harris部門在今年剩餘時間內的營運比例將在16%至7%之間。

Moving to slide 9. We generated record cash flows from operations in the quarter, aided by lower tax payments. Year-to-date cash flows have increased approximately 13% with a 119% cash conversion ratio. Average operating working capital improved 50 basis points to 18.6% versus the comparable prior-year period.

切換到第9張投影片。本季度，在稅收支出減少的推動下，我們實現了創紀錄的營運現金流。今年迄今的現金流成長了約 13%，現金轉換率為 119%。平均營運資本較上年同期改善 50 個基點，達到 18.6%。

Moving to slide 10. We are executing well on our capital allocation strategy. In the quarter, we invested $136 million in growth, reflecting CapEx investments in our final investment in Alloy Steel. Our adjusted return on invested capital increased to 22.2%.

切換到第10張投影片。我們的資本配置策略執行良好。本季度，我們投資了 1.36 億美元用於成長，這反映了我們在合金鋼最終投資中的資本支出。我們調整後的投資資本報酬率提高至 22.2%。

We also returned $94 million to shareholders through a combination of our dividend and $53 million in share repurchases. Looking ahead, we announced our 30th consecutive annual dividend payout rate increase, which is 5.3% starting early next year. We continue to expect superior shareholder returns through our strategic growth initiatives and our capital allocation strategy.

我們也透過分紅和5,300萬美元的股票回購，向股東返還了9,400萬美元。展望未來，我們宣布將連續第 30 年提高年度股利支付率，從明年年初開始，股利支付率將提高 5.3%。我們將繼續透過策略性成長舉措和資本配置策略，為股東帶來優異的回報。

Moving to slide 11 to discuss our operating assumptions for the year. We are maintaining our top line and margin assumptions given performance to date, order trends, effective cost management, and benefits from our savings programs.

接下來請看第 11 張投影片，討論我們今年的營運假設。鑑於目前的業績、訂單趨勢、有效的成本管理以及節約計畫帶來的收益，我們維持對營收和利潤率的預期。

We expect traditional seasonality in our sales performance as we move from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, with a modest sequential improvement in our operating income margin. We are increasing our interest expense assumption to a low $50 million range due to recent borrowings for the Alloy Steel transaction, and we are increasing our cash conversion range to above 100% to better align with performance.

我們預計，隨著第三季度過渡到第四季度，銷售業績將呈現傳統的季節性波動，營業利潤率將略有環比改善。由於最近為收購合金鋼公司而進行的借款，我們將利息支出假設提高到 5000 萬美元的較低水平，同時我們將現金轉換率提高到 100% 以上，以更好地與業績相匹配。

To wrap up, our manufacturing footprint and supply chain strategy have proven to be well positioned and resilient in this operating environment. Combined with diligent cost management and a focus on long-term growth, we will continue to effectively manage any headwinds and leverage opportunities to drive superior long-term value.

綜上所述，我們的生產佈局和供應鏈策略已證明在當前的營運環境下具有良好的定位和韌性。結合嚴格的成本管理和對長期成長的關注，我們將繼續有效應對任何不利因素，並利用各種機會創造卓越的長期價值。

And now, I would like to turn the call over for questions.

現在，我想把電話交給各位提問。

(Operator Instructions) Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

（操作說明）Angel Castillo，摩根士丹利。

This is Oliver joining on for Angel this morning. Thanks for taking my question. I guess, maybe, just to start, how -- curious as to how you're seeing demand trends unfold the first month into the quarter. Specifically around construction and infra, it sounds like that's actually gotten better just going off the slide. So any -- just curious if you can share some color there.

這是奧利佛今天早上和安吉爾一起主持節目。謝謝您回答我的問題。我想，或許可以先從您如何看待本季第一個月的需求趨勢展開情況說起。具體到建築和基礎設施領域，聽起來情況似乎確實有所改善。所以，任何——只是好奇你是否能分享一些細節。

Yeah. Just in general, Oliver, as we mentioned, we saw continued strength as we wrap up the third quarter and into this fourth quarter. We've been looking to strength out of our automation business, and we're starting to see an acceleration of orders that are broad based. And so while it's still pretty early in the quarter, we're optimistic that we're seeing strength progressing in capital investment.

是的。總的來說，正如我們之前提到的，奧利佛在第三節結束進入第四節後，表現依然強勁。我們一直期待自動化業務能夠強勁成長，目前已開始看到訂單量全面加速成長。雖然現在距離季度末還有一段時間，但我們對資本投資的成長勢頭持樂觀態度。

We're seeing in our core business in Americas segment as well. We're seeing some progressive trends as we wrapped up the third quarter and into the fourth quarter. The last thing I'd mention in terms of order trends, and we do expect, as I mentioned in my comments, to see some compression on the HVAC part of our business from the production levels expected to soften in this fourth quarter.

我們在美洲地區的核心業務中也看到了這種情況。隨著第三季度結束進入第四季度，我們看到了一些積極的趨勢。關於訂單趨勢，最後一點我想提的是，正如我之前提到的，由於預計第四季度生產水準將有所下降，我們暖通空調業務的訂單量預計會有所減少。

When we think about that, we think out about 10% to 15% of our business exposed. So while it's traditional seasonality within our Harris segment, we do expect incremental softness within the HVAC markets.

我們這樣想來，大概有 10% 到 15% 的業務會面臨風險。因此，雖然哈里斯業務板塊的季節性波動是傳統的，但我們預計暖通空調市場將出現逐步疲軟的局面。

And Oliver, just to add specifically on your question about construction, infrastructure, it's really a tale of two cities. We saw a lot of strength in the Americas Welding segment; more challenged in the International, overall up and positive, which is encouraging, but again, very regionally distinct.

奧利佛，關於你提出的建設和基礎設施問題，我還要補充一點，這真是兩個截然不同的世界。我們看到美洲焊接領域表現強勁；國際領域面臨更多挑戰，但總體而言呈上升趨勢，這令人鼓舞，但同樣，各地區的情況差異很大。

That's really helpful. And maybe just as a follow-up, in automation, it sounds like -- encouraging to see that order rate pick up. And that could potentially, if it trends throughout the rest of the quarter, it sounds like revenues will be higher sequentially. Curious as to like how that translates to margin just from an incremental perspective. I know there's some higher fixed costs there, but yeah, just curious if you can share some color as well.

這真的很有幫助。或許可以補充一點，在自動化方面，訂單率上升聽起來令人鼓舞。如果這一趨勢在本季剩餘時間內持續下去，那麼營收季比可能會成長。很好奇從增量角度來看，這會對利潤率產生怎樣的影響。我知道那裡有一些較高的固定成本，不過，我只是好奇你是否也能分享一些細節資訊。

Yeah. So the automation business does have a higher fixed costs, so higher incrementals and also higher decrementals, A lot of that business is a fairly long cycle project, right? So as we take orders, particularly on the automotive side, you'll start to see the revenue and margin impact of that increased activity next year, more so than fourth quarter.

是的。因此，自動化業務的固定成本較高，增量成本和減損成本也較高。很多這類業務都是週期較長的項目，對吧？因此，隨著我們接到訂單，尤其是在汽車領域，明年您將開始看到業務成長對營收和利潤率的影響，而且這種影響會比第四季更加明顯。

There are some short-cycle portions of the business in terms of co-bots and more pre-engineered systems. So we might see a little bit of an uptick sequentially from third quarter to fourth quarter on automation, but I think the big benefit from the renewed capital spending will come next year rather than fourth quarter.

就協作機器人和預製系統而言，業務中有一些週期較短的部分。因此，我們可能會看到自動化程度從第三季到第四季略有上升，但我認為重新增加資本支出帶來的最大好處將在明年而不是第四季到來。

Just to add, Oliver, when you look at short term, the mix of business within the Americas segment, as you know, 80% of our automation business is within the Americas segment. So while the incremental activity that Steve points to, we won't see realized into 2026, as we mentioned, the sequential improvement, we do expect between 15% to 20% improvement in the Q3 levels, which would provide a more improving mix in the margins within the automation segment.

奧利佛，我還要補充一點，從短期來看，美洲地區的業務組合，如你所知，我們80%的自動化業務都在美洲地區。因此，雖然史蒂夫指出的增量活動到 2026 年我們不會實現，但正如我們所提到的，我們預計第三季水準將有 15% 到 20% 的連續改善，這將使自動化領域的利潤率組合更加改善。

Bryan Blair, Oppenheimer.

布萊恩布萊爾，奧本海默。

It would be great to hear a little more on how your team is thinking about cycle positioning, and the potential for demand recovery and acceleration into 2026. I understand comps are relatively easy, that certainly influences optics. But the growth in consumables, that's certainly notable in the quarter.

很想多了解您的團隊是如何考慮週期定位的，以及在 2026 年需求復甦和加速的潛力。我知道比較容易進行對比測試，這肯定會對光學性能產生影響。但本季消費品的成長確實非常顯著。

Equipment grew for the first time, I believe, since the fourth quarter of '23. So there seems to be some real underlying momentum. Respecting that you haven't offered 2026 guidance, just any color on the puts and takes of the backdrop and your thoughts on the setup going into next year would be appreciated.

我認為，這是自 2023 年第四季以來設備首次成長。所以看來確實存在一些潛在的成長動能。鑑於您尚未提供 2026 年的指導意見，如果您能就背景方面的進展和您對於明年安排的想法提供一些信息，我們將不勝感激。

No, we're well positioned, as you know, as markets begin to expand. The question is when? When we think about consumables as being a key indicator for short-cycle activity, pretty positive with all the dynamics in the market to see some positive trends there. So we're well positioned for growth, although we need to see more consistency before we have more confidence in what an expansion could look like.

不，正如您所知，隨著市場開始擴張，我們已經做好了充分的準備。問題是何時？當我們把消耗品視為短期活動的關鍵指標時，考慮到市場的所有動態，看到一些正面的趨勢是相當樂觀的。因此，我們已經為成長做好了充分準備，儘管我們需要看到更穩定的發展，才能對擴張的前景更有信心。

On the automation equipment side -- and that's where we're seeing good activity -- with some consistency there, we do expect to see a posture to return to growth there. So it really is about being in a position to accelerate our performance with growth and we're well positioned. We've been shaping our model, but we want to see a little bit more consistency in the order activity before we point to a more consistent growth pattern in our business.

在自動化設備方面——這也是我們看到良好發展勢頭的領域——並且保持一定的穩定性，我們預計該領域將恢復成長。所以，關鍵在於我們能否透過成長來加速業績提升，而我們已經做好了充分的準備。我們一直在完善我們的模型，但我們希望在訂單活動方面看到更穩定的表現，然後再指出我們業務中出現了更穩定的成長模式。

Yeah, Bryan, as we've navigated through this part of the cycle, we've tried to be very thoughtful about how we can strengthen the business for the long term. We've talked about some of the controls we put on discretionary spending and looking for structural cost savings basically by changing how we get the work done so that we can become more efficient, more productive, get the cost reductions but not compromise our ability to capture demand in an up cycle.

是的，布萊恩，在我們經歷這個週期階段的過程中，我們一直在認真思考如何從長遠角度加強業務。我們已經討論過對可自由支配支出進行的一些控制，以及透過改變工作方式來尋求結構性成本節約，從而提高效率、提高生產力，降低成本，但又不損害我們在經濟上行週期中抓住需求的能力。

Understood. That's very helpful color. The broad acceleration in automation orders that -- that's certainly encouraging. And it's been multiple quarters of, I guess, wait-and-see posture from customers on that front. I'm just curious if you're hearing any consistent rationale for moving forward with what the orders now for the conversion of high levels of quoting activity to now solid order flow?

明白了。那是一個非常有用的顏色。自動化訂單的全面加速成長——這當然令人鼓舞。在過去的幾個季度裡，顧客們似乎都對此持觀望態度。我只是好奇，你是否聽到任何一致的理由，來支持將目前大量的報價活動轉化為穩定的訂單流？

And mentioning that it's broad acceleration, not just auto. We know that that's been pending and platform changeovers, et cetera, (inaudible) eventually be investment there. Just curious, auto and other sectors is, again, there's any consistency to customer rationale for now, moving forward after multiple quarters of being on pause.

而且需要說明的是，這是全面加速，而不僅僅是自動加速。我們知道這件事一直懸而未決，平台轉換等等，（聽不清楚）最終都會在那裡進行投資。我只是好奇，汽車和其他行業在經歷了幾個季度的停滯之後，目前在客戶需求方面是否還有任何一致性，能否繼續向前發展。

Yeah. I would add, Bryan, just it's broad based, as we mentioned, not just automotive. Although you did note that with program launches announced just in this month of October versus April, probably mid-teens overall uplift in activity. So that's pretty positive.

是的。布萊恩，我還要補充一點，正如我們之前提到的，它的基礎很廣泛，不僅限於汽車產業。雖然您也注意到，與四月相比，僅在十月就宣布了多個項目啟動，但整體活動量可能增長了十幾個百分點。所以這算是相當正面的訊號。

But it is broad-based. And we believe there are a key theme of how we introduce high-quality solutions within automation capabilities we offer do differentiate ourselves. And so our quoting activity is broad and very high still and seeing the progression of more commitment to capital is a good sign.

但它的基礎很廣泛。我們相信，我們提供的自動化能力中引入高品質解決方案的方式，是我們脫穎而出的關鍵。因此，我們的報價活動範圍廣泛且仍然非常活躍，看到更多資金投入是一個好兆頭。

Bryan, I'd also add that you saw [cat's] release yesterday, right? The heavy industry part of our portfolio starting to get more confidence in their future production rates, therefore, more willing to spend capital. That also has a trickle-down effect in the general industries. And I think we're also seeing this is maybe more anecdotal because we don't necessarily track it this way. But we are starting to see some investments as companies look to reshore or nearshore production.

布萊恩，我還想補充一點，你昨天也看到了[貓]的發布，對吧？我們投資組合中的重工業部分對未來的生產力越來越有信心，因此也更願意投入資金。這也會對其他行業產生連鎖反應。而且我認為，我們看到的這種情況可能更多是軼事性的，因為我們不一定以這種方式追蹤。但我們開始看到一些投資，因為企業正在尋求將生產遷回國內或遷至附近地區。

Saree Boroditsky, Jefferies.

Saree Boroditsky，傑弗里斯。

Pricing has obviously been very strong in Americas. I think when you started the year, you expected some demand destruction with higher pricing. So curious if you're seeing this or if it's been more inelastic.

美洲地區的定價顯然非常強勁。我認為年初的時候，你們就預料到價格上漲會導致需求下降。很好奇你是否也看到了這種情況，還是說市場彈性較小。

Yeah. I'd say, Saree, our initial concern, right, was that price on volume would fully offset each other. And I think we've seen demand, from a volume standpoint, be a little bit more resilient than that. So trailing -- the production and volume trailing, the increase in price and giving us a net increase in organics.

是的。薩裡，我想說，我們最初的擔憂是，價格和銷售之間的差異會完全抵消彼此的影響。我認為從銷售來看，需求比這更有韌性。因此，產量和銷售量下滑，價格上漲，導致有機產品淨成長。

I think what we're starting to see now is the volume not being less negative but actually starting to flip towards being positive. Now part of that is easier comps as we started to enter the slowdown this time last year. But I think there's general optimism amongst our customer base that we're starting to see the first innings of a turn in demand.

我認為我們現在開始看到的是，成交量不僅不再是負面情緒，而是開始轉向正面。部分原因是由於去年這個時候我們開始進入經濟放緩階段，所以比較基數較低。但我認為我們的客戶群普遍樂觀地認為，我們開始看到需求出現改善的跡象。

I appreciate that color. And I know you talked a little bit about 2026 volume recovery earlier. But just curious now that we're in our second year of volume decline, you saw some momentum, how you would expect to see a recovery? Would it be a slow recovery? Or would you see some strong growth coming out of the downturn?

我喜歡這個顏色。我知道你之前也談過 2026 年的銷售復甦情況。但我很好奇，既然我們已經連續兩年銷售下滑，你們也看到了一些復甦勢頭，你們預計銷量會如何回升？復甦過程會很緩慢嗎？還是您認為經濟低迷之後會出現強勁成長？

Well, it's always difficult for me to predict the trajectory of any expansion. But a couple of signs that I'd point to. Short cycle activities, we've already talked about in consumables. It begins a cycle of growth that leads into investment.

嗯，我總是很難預測任何擴張的軌跡。但我想指出以下幾點跡象。短週期活動，我們已經在消耗品部分討論過了。它開啟了一個成長循環，最終帶來投資。

So for example, when we see on our part of our business in the Americas where consumable volumes are improving on the automotive end market, that points to production, and then it leads to growth in capital investment. When we see how the industry stabilize and then we started to point to modest levels of activities and growth in different pockets of heavy industries, that's also a positive indicator.

例如，當我們在美洲的業務中看到汽車終端市場的消耗品銷售量有所改善時，這表示生產正在成長，進而帶動資本投資的成長。當我們看到產業趨於穩定，並且開始注意到重工業各領域出現了適度的活動和成長時，這也是一個正面的訊號。

We saw the same thing in general industries where consumable activity turned positive. So when you see persistent, consistent levels of industrial production activity, then we expect to see more accelerated capital investment. So starting to see that. We need to see a little bit more consistency there, but that does lead us into a more optimistic view of where the markets are trending.

我們在一般產業也看到了同樣的情況，消費活動也轉為正成長。因此，當工業生產活動持續穩定地維持高水準時，我們預期資本投資將會加速成長。開始明白了。我們需要看到市場更加穩定一些，但這確實讓我們對市場走向持更樂觀的態度。

Yeah. Saree, I'd expect to see a slow build of volume growth rather than an avalanche of everything suddenly breaking loose.

是的。紗麗，我預計銷量會緩慢增長，而不是突然出現爆發式增長。

Nathan Jones, Stifel.

Nathan Jones，Stifel。

I guess I'll start with a question on incremental margins. Currently, you're looking at volume declines and price increases driving organic growth. And obviously, you don't get any operating leverage on price, particularly, if it's offsetting increased costs, right? You get volume leverage of volume.

我想先問一個關於增量利潤率的問題。目前，銷量下降和價格上漲正在推動內生成長。顯然，如果價格上漲抵消了成本增加，你就無法獲得任何價格上的經營槓桿，對吧？你可以利用成交量槓桿效應。

So maybe some advice on how we should think about incremental margins as the growth is primarily driven by price as we head into, maybe, the first half of next year? And then that flips to maybe more volume-driven growth in the second half of next year. You talked about investments you made in throughput and being more efficient.

那麼，在明年上半年，隨著成長主要由價格驅動，我們該如何看待增量利潤率？或許可以給我們一些建議？然後，明年下半年可能會出現更多由銷售驅動的成長。你談到了你在提高產量和效率方面的投資。

Maybe does that change the -- we should expect lower incremental margins in the short term and maybe higher than historic incremental margins as volume improved from those investments? Just any color or commentary you can give us about how we should think about incremental margins?

這或許會改變我們預期的情況──短期內增量利潤率會降低，但隨著這些投資帶來的銷售成長，增量利潤率可能會高於歷史水準？您能否就我們應該如何看待增量利潤提供一些見解或評論？

Yeah. I would love to. When I think about our current environment where we have high-teens incremental margins and in a trajectory of what we're talking about with modest volume declines. In general, as you know, Nathan, when we see volumes approaching that mid-single digits, we're going to be in that mid-20s incremental margins.

是的。我很樂意。當我想到我們目前的狀況，利潤率只有十幾個百分點，而且銷量略有下降，但成長軌跡卻和我們所說的類似。內森，你知道，一般來說，當銷售量接近個位數中段時，我們的增量利潤率就會達到 20% 中段。

There is upside with automation. And as we continue to shape our International segment, which leads into upwards of 30s -- low- to mid-30s type incrementals. But you should see more accelerated incrementals as you see an acceleration of growth. Outside of that, you see more of what we've done today, so see if high-teens type of incrementals in this kind of environment.

自動化也有其優勢。隨著我們不斷塑造國際市場，這將帶來 30 歲以上人群——30 歲出頭到 30 歲中段的增量。但隨著成長速度的加快，你應該會看到更快速的增量成長。除此之外，你還可以看到我們今天所做的更多事情，看看在這種環境下，十​​幾千種類型的增量是否可行。

I guess my follow-up question will be on Europe. Your main competitor reported yesterday, a bit more bullish on the outlook for improved volume in Europe going into next year. Maybe just any commentary on your view of any inflection in European volume growth? Thanks for taking my questions.

我想我接下來的問題會是關於歐洲的。您的主要競爭對手昨天發布的報告對明年歐洲銷售成長前景更為樂觀。您能否就歐洲銷售成長的任何轉捩點發表一下看法？感謝您回答我的問題。

Yeah. Sure, Nathan. The commentary from the European governments about increasing defense spending and the like is encouraging. But at this point, it's still commentary. We're not seeing that translate into order intake for us. So I guess we would be cautiously optimistic that maybe Europe might get better, but we're not in any way counting on it. We're planning for it.

是的。當然可以，內森。歐洲各國政府對增加國防開支等的評論令人鼓舞。但就目前而言，這仍然只是評論。但我們並沒有看到這種情況轉化為實際的訂單量。所以我想我們應該謹慎樂觀地認為歐洲的情況可能會好轉，但我們絕不指望這種情況一定會發生。我們正在為此做準備。

[Mig] Dobre, Baird.

[Mig] Dobre，Baird。

First question, I guess two parts to it. So can we put a finer point maybe on the volumes that you expect in the fourth quarter in Americas? The short-cycle business is improving, but apparently, automation is going to be down again year-over-year, even though maybe better sequentially. So net-net, what should we be thinking in terms of volume?

第一個問題，我想可以分成兩個部分。那麼我們能否更具體地說明您對美洲地區第四季銷售的預期？短週期業務正在改善，但顯然自動化程度將比去年同期再次下降，儘管環比可能有所改善。那麼總的來說，從交易量的角度來看，我們該考慮什麼呢？

And I guess the second part of the question is in International. If I understood correctly, the way you're thinking about margin in the fourth quarter is really not all that different than what we've seen in Q3. Now I know the business does have a little bit of seasonality typically in the fourth quarter is usually better than the third. So I'm wondering, again, what might be different this time around?

我想問題的第二部分屬於國際範疇。如果我理解正確的話，你對第四季利潤率的思考方式與第三季我們看到的其實並沒有太大不同。我知道這個行業確實存在一些季節性因素，通常第四季比第三季好。所以我想知道，這次會有什麼不同呢？

Yeah. So Mig, I'll answer the international margin question first. So you're right, we do expect traditional seasonality in the fourth quarter, which is an uptick from third. And then on top of that, incremental sales from the acquisition we've made. So we mentioned operating within that 11% to 12% range. I expect us to probably be on the higher end of that range but still within that framework from an International segment standpoint.

是的。那麼，Mig，我先回答國際利潤率的問題。所以你說得對，我們預計第四季會出現傳統的季節性波動，比第三季有所成長。此外，還有我們收購帶來的增量銷售額。所以我們提到要將營運範圍控制在 11% 到 12% 之間。我預計我們的業績可能會處於該範圍的較高水平，但從國際市場的角度來看，仍然在這個框架之內。

On the Americas side, we do expect sequential, as you note, automation growth, but still probably low-double-digits behind the prior year as we had a record level of automation sales and margins in 2024's fourth quarter. So sequentially, I would think of the fourth quarter, as I've mentioned, to be seasonally justice. It'll be up 100, 200 basis points fourth quarter versus third quarter, all in with all the puts and takes.

正如您所指出的，在美洲地區，我們預計自動化業務將環比成長，但可能仍比前一年低兩位數成長，因為我們在 2024 年第四季實現了創紀錄的自動化銷售額和利潤率。所以，從季度來看，正如我之前提到的，我認為第四季是季節性的正常波動。考慮到所有因素，第四季比第三季預計上漲100到200個基點。

And we do expect improvement in the operating margin profile. I expect, as I mentioned, Americas to be in the higher end of that 18% to 19% range.

我們預計營業利潤率狀況將有所改善。正如我之前提到的，我預計美洲地區的這一比例將處於 18% 到 19% 區間的較高水平。

Okay. That's helpful. And then my second question, and you'll have to excuse my ignorance here on the accounting dynamics, but from a life of charges standpoint, is this something that we should be contemplating in 2026 as well? Or are we starting to lap some of these issues?

好的。那很有幫助。我的第二個問題是，請原諒我對會計方面的知識匱乏，但從費用生命週期的角度來看，這是否也是我們在 2026 年應該考慮的問題？或者我們開始在某些問題上落後了？

And you talked a little bit about incremental margins on a volume recovery, but I do know that there are some temporary cost takeouts, which, I guess, presumably revert as volumes increase. So what I may be asking for specific guidance on 2026, just level setting expectations here for the Americas segment in particular, is how people should be thinking about incrementals?

您剛才談到了銷售恢復帶來的利潤成長，但我知道有一些暫時的成本削減措施，我想，隨著銷售量的增加，這些措施大概會恢復原狀。因此，我可能想就 2026 年尋求一些具體指導，特別是針對美洲地區的預期，那就是人們應該如何看待增量？

Yes. So I would follow a more traditional incremental framework because I've mentioned in previous question, Mig. On LIFO, LIFO accounting gets reset every year. So we're pointing to the valuation of inventories and the cost related to that.

是的。所以我打算採用更傳統的增量框架，因為我在之前的問題中提到過，Mig。在後進先出法（LIFO）下，LIFO會計公司每年都會重置。所以我們關注的是庫存的估值以及與之相關的成本。

So we do expect, as I mentioned in my comments, to LIFO charges in fourth quarter to follow the same trending you've had in the last couple of quarters. Last year would be a credit. But I can't really speak to 2026, until we start seeing the inflationary trends and then with reset, what a LIFO accounting would look like.

正如我在評論中提到的，我們預計第四季度的後進先出法（LIFO）費用將延續過去幾季的趨勢。去年同期將計入貸方。但我無法預測 2026 年的情況，直到我們開始看到通膨趨勢，然後隨著重置，後進先出會計法會是什麼樣子。

On temporary cost savings, that's built into our model. So as volume improves, then we'll allow for temporary costs to come back into the business. But that's all part of our incremental framework that we have as a business.

關於暫時性的成本節約，這已經納入我們的模式了。隨著業務量的改善，我們將允許臨時成本重新回到業務中。但這只是我們公司逐步發展框架的一部分。

Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

史蒂夫·巴格爾，KeyBanc Capital Markets。

This is actually Christian Zyla on for Steve Barger. My first question is on your automation business. Kind of a long one. Last quarter, your comments implied automation to be down about mid-single digits year over year. Where did the underperformance come from? Maybe I missed it, was it all related to automotive CapEx?

實際上，這是克里斯蒂安·齊拉代替史蒂夫·巴格爾解說。我的第一個問題是關於你們的自動化業務。有點長。上個季度，你的評論暗示自動化程度比去年同期下降了約個位數百分比。業績不佳的原因是什麼？或許我錯過了什麼，是不是都跟汽車產業的資本支出有關？

And then with your comments about October activity in answer to one of your earlier questions, how are you thinking about the fourth quarter now? Is it stable from 2Q still a fair level? Or should we be thinking about 4Q in parts of '26 closer to 3Q level?

結合您之前回答的問題中提到的10月份的活動情況，您現在對第四季有何看法？第二季以來，這個水平是否穩定且仍然合理？或者我們應該考慮 2026 年第四季部分地區接近第三季的水平嗎？

Yeah. In terms of our sales mix, we did see the compression largely in automotive but also in heavy industries. So you've got that mix and the strengthening we pointed to, Chris, was broad-based. We had talked about a pacing after the second quarter that was more aligned with $215 million per quarter.

是的。從銷售結構來看，我們確實看到汽車產業以及重工業的銷售結構都出現了壓縮。所以，我們看到了這種組合，而且我們之前提到的加強措施，克里斯，是全面加強的。我們曾在第二季之後討論過，將成長調整為每季 2.15 億美元。

We were below that in the third quarter, just the timing of how we recognized the revenue. We're going to recoup that in a little bit more into the fourth quarter. So I would say we're a little bit ahead of where the pacing that we had talked about in the second quarter, but still implies a mid-single-digit decline for the full year.

第三季我們低於這個數字，只是我們確認收入的時間點不同而已。我們會在第四節比賽中稍微彌補一下這個差距。所以我認為我們目前的進度比第二季預期的要快一些，但這仍然意味著全年會出現個位數的下滑。

So -- and then that's the comments in terms of order activity really come into really more of a 2026 profile business. So we're trending just a little bit better than what we had communicated at the -- after the second-quarter call.

所以——然後，關於訂單活動的評論實際上更多地體現了 2026 年的業務概況。所以，我們的發展趨勢比我們在第二季財報電話會議後所傳達的情況略好。

Got it. That's great color. And then last question, just on your Harris business, your ability to get pricing has been incredible. The last six quarters have averaged high-single-digits. Is this primarily demand-driven pricing? Or how would you break down the pricing ability from demand tariffs and maybe some catch-up pricing? Do you think this dynamic continues into the next quarter and next year, presumably? Thank you.

知道了。顏色真好看。最後一個問題，關於您在哈里斯的業務，您獲取價格的能力令人難以置信。過去六個季度的平均降幅都在個位數高點。這是主要由需求驅動的定價嗎？或者，您會如何分解需求關稅和可能的追趕定價等定價能力？您認為這種趨勢會延續到下一季甚至明年嗎？謝謝。

Yes. In general, Chris, remember, Harris has good portion of the business that's tied to commodity silver and copper, and we have a mechanical pricing model that adjusts to changes in the markets, particularly in silver and copper. So the movement in pricing is largely reflective of changes in the commodities in the broader markets.

是的。克里斯，記住，哈里斯的大部分業務都與白銀和銅等大宗商品相關，我們採用機械定價模型來調整市場變化，特別是白銀和銅市場的變化。因此，價格變動很大程度上反映了更廣泛市場中大宗商品價格的變化。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back to Gabe Bruno, Chief Financial Officer, for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我謹將電話轉回給財務長加布·布魯諾，請他作總結發言。

I would like to thank everyone for joining us on the call today and for your continued interest in Lincoln Electric. We look forward to discussing the progression of our strategic initiatives in the future. Thank you very much.

感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議，也感謝大家一直以來對林肯電氣的關注。我們期待在未來探討我們策略舉措的進展。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our call for today. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，我們今天的演講到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。