LendingClub Corp (LC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. Thank you for attending today's LendingClub fourth quarter '24 earnings conference call. My name is Cole and I'll be the moderator for today's call. (Moderator Instructions)

午安.感謝您參加今天的 LendingClub 24 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫科爾，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。（主持人說明）

I'd like to pass it over to Artem Nalivayko. Please go ahead.

我想把它交給 Artem Nalivayko。請繼續。

Thank you and good afternoon. Welcome to LendingClub's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. Joining me today to talk about our results are Scott Sanborn, CEO; and Drew LaBenne, CFO. You can find the presentation accompanying our earnings release on the Investors Relations section of our website. On the call, in addition to questions from analysts, we will also be answering some of the questions that were submitted for consideration via email.

謝謝您，下午好。歡迎參加 LendingClub 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天與我一起討論我們的業績的是執行長 Scott Sanborn；以及財務長 Drew LaBenne。您可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到隨我們的收益報告一起發布的簡報。在電話會議上，除了分析師的問題之外，我們還將回答一些透過電子郵件提交審議的問題。

Our remarks today will include forward-looking statements, including with respect to our competitive advantages and strategy, macroeconomic conditions, platform volume and pricing, future products and services, and future business and financial performance. Our actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements.

我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，包括有關我們的競爭優勢和策略、宏觀經濟條件、平台數量和定價、未來產品和服務以及未來業務和財務表現。我們的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述所預期的結果有重大差異。

Factors that could cause these results to differ materially are described in today's press release and earnings presentation. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on current expectations and assumptions, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events.

今天的新聞稿和收益報告中描述了可能導致這些結果發生重大差異的因素。我們在本次電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於當前的預期和假設，我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些陳述的義務。

Our remarks today also include non-GAAP measures relating to our performance, including tangible book value per common share and pre-provision net revenue and return on tangible common equity. You can find more information on our use of non-GAAP measures and a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in today's earnings release and presentation.

我們今天的發言還包括與我們的績效相關的非公認會計準則指標，包括每股普通股有形帳面價值、撥備前淨收入和有形普通股權益回報率。您可以在今天的收益報告和介紹中找到有關我們使用非 GAAP 指標以及與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調整的更多資訊。

And now, I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

現在，我想將電話轉給史考特。

Hey, thank you, Artem. Welcome everyone. We feel great about how we executed the year andhow we've positioned the company both strategically and financially. In the fourth quarter, originations were up 13% year-on-year, pre-provision net revenue was up 34%, and total net revenue came in at a high for the year, up 17% to $217 million.

嘿，謝謝你，Artem。歡迎大家。我們對這一年的業績表現以及公司在策略和財務上的定位感到非常滿意。第四季，貸款發放量年增13%，撥備前淨收入成長34%，總淨收入創年新高，成長17%，至2.17億美元。

Stepping back and looking at the year in total, I'm extremely pleased with what we accomplished. We successfully exited our new bank operating agreement on time to become one of the first fintech banks to do so. Our product innovation enabled us to grow originations while maintaining industry-leading marketing efficiency.

回顧這一年，我對我們所取得的成就感到非常高興。我們按時成功退出新的銀行營運協議，成為首批這樣做的金融科技銀行之一。我們的產品創新使我們能夠增加發起量，同時保持業界領先的行銷效率。

We maintained our credit outperformance with delinquencies more than 40% better than our competitive set. Our consistent, compelling asset performance drove consecutive quarterly increases in loan sales prices. We grew our balance sheet by 20% compared to the US Bank average of 3% to 4%.

我們的信用表現依然優異，拖欠率比競爭對手低 40% 以上。我們持續、強勁的資產表現推動貸款銷售價格連續幾季上漲。我們的資產負債表成長了 20%，而美國銀行的平均成長率為 3% 至 4%。

We increased our deposit base by 24%, fueled by the launch of our award-winning LevelUp Savings product. And we advanced our strategy, driving adoption of our mobile app to improve engagement and member lifetime value.

由於我們屢獲殊榮的 LevelUp 儲蓄產品的推出，我們的存款基礎增加了 24%。我們改進了我們的策略，推動行動應用程式的採用，以提高參與度和會員終身價值。

We are looking forward to continuing our momentum in the year ahead as we build on our strong foundation. Critical to our foundation is credit, where our data advantage, flexible technology platform, and disciplined risk management are enabling compelling returns for both us and our marketplace investors.

我們期待在新的一年裡繼續保持良好勢頭，鞏固我們堅實的基礎。信貸對我們的基礎至關重要，我們的數據優勢、靈活的技術平台和嚴格的風險管理為我們和我們的市場投資者帶來了可觀的回報。

These attractive returns, combined with our product innovation and status as a nationally chartered bank, have supported steady growth in marketplace investor demand. The result is four consecutive quarters of increasing loan sales prices, up by 170 basis points year-on-year.

這些誘人的回報，加上我們的產品創新和國家特許銀行的地位，支持了市場投資者需求的穩定成長。結果是貸款銷售價格連續四個季度上漲，年比上漲了 170 個基點。

And marketplace loan demand is increasingly coming from banks who purchased roughly onethird of our volume in Q4, up from less than 5% when we entered the year. We continue to work on growing this percentage, and we have a healthy pipeline of bank demand that we expect to materialize over the course of 2025.

市場貸款需求越來越多來自銀行，它們在第四季度購買了我們約三分之一的貸款，而今年初這一比例還不到 5%。我們將繼續致力於提高這一比例，並且我們擁有健康的銀行需求管道，預計這些需求將在 2025 年實現。

Demand from private credit, which represented the majority of our loan sales in 2024, is also growing. These loan investors have been drawn to the consistent returns and seamless access provided by our structured certificate program, where we've now crossed $4 billion in total originations. To build on that success, we're now working with a major rating agency towards an investment grade rating for the senior security.

私人信貸的需求也在成長，2024 年私人信貸占我們貸款銷售額的大部分。這些貸款投資者被我們的結構化證書計劃提供的穩定回報和無縫訪問所吸引，目前我們的總貸款發放已超過 40 億美元。為了鞏固這一成功，我們目前正與一家大型評級機構合作，爭取對優先證券進行投資等級評級。

This rating will open the program to investors who require a rated product, including insurance companies who collectively hold over $8.5 trillion in assets. We're currently expected to close our first rated transaction directly with an insurer in the first quarter, with a spread roughly 30 basis points tighter than our typical structured transaction.

該評級將向需要評級產品的投資者開放該計劃，其中包括總計持有超過 8.5 兆美元資產的保險公司。我們目前預計將在第一季與一家保險公司直接完成第一筆評級交易，利差比我們典型的結構化交易低約 30 個基點。

Continued improvement in loan sales pricing will, over time, support the economics of expanding back into a broader set of marketing channels to further grow originations. Based on our trajectory, we plan to begin testing our way back into currently dormant marketing channels as we exit Q1 and enter our more favorable seasonal period.

隨著時間的推移，貸款銷售定價的持續改善將支持擴大到更廣泛的行銷管道的經濟效益，進一步增加貸款發放量。根據我們的發展軌跡，我們計劃在第一季結束後進入更有利的季節性時期，開始測試重新進入目前處於休眠狀態的行銷管道。

We are eager to accelerate our growth as we move through the year. As I've said before, credit card balances and interest rates are at historic highs, and those increases have translated to higher costs for our members. For reference, our members are now paying over $180 more per month than they were paying just a few years ago, which is an increase of more than 30%.

我們渴望在新的一年加速我們的成長。正如我之前所說，信用卡餘額和利率處於歷史最高水平，而這些成長意味著我們會員的成本增加。作為參考，我們的會員現在每月支付的費用比幾年前多出 180 多美元，增幅超過 30%。

That increased expense represents a huge savings opportunity that LendingClub is uniquely well positioned to deliver. Our value proposition is quite compelling. Not only do our members save when they consolidate credit card debt through LendingClub, they also increase their credit score, an average of 48 points.

增加的開支意味著巨大的節約機會，而 LendingClub 則具有獨特的優勢來提供這種機會。我們的價值主張非常引人注目。我們的會員透過 LendingClub 整合信用卡債務不僅可以節省開支，還可以提高他們的信用評分，平均提高 48 分。

In addition to providing savings, our ability to tailor our experience to members' needs amplifies our value proposition and helps fuel our success. For example, we launched TopUp a year ago to give borrowers an easy way to consolidate their existing loan balance with new borrowing while maintaining one monthly payment.

除了提供節省之外，我們還能夠根據會員的需求量身定制我們的體驗，這擴大了我們的價值主張並有助於推動我們的成功。例如，我們一年前推出了 TopUp，讓借款人可以輕鬆地將現有貸款餘額與新借款合併，同時維持每月一筆還款。

The early results have been outstanding with an approximate 80% lift in issuance dollars per member compared to offering a repeat personal loan and a net promoter score of 82. Innovations like TopUp give us a competitive edge that flows through to our marketing efficiency.

早期結果非常出色，與提供重複個人貸款相比，每位會員的發行金額增加了約 80%，淨推薦值達到 82。TopUp 之類的創新為我們提供了競爭優勢，從而提高了我們的行銷效率。

After efficiently acquiring satisfied members, the second step of our strategy is to engage them through our mobile app. We began marketing the app to loan customers six months ago, and our early results confirmed that app users engage more frequently and demonstrate a higher propensity to take another product versus web-only members.

在有效獲得滿意的會員後，我們策略的第二步是透過我們的行動應用程式吸引他們。我們六個月前開始向貸款客戶推銷這款應用程序，早期結果證實，與僅限網路的會員相比，應用程式用戶的參與頻率更高，且更傾向於購買其他產品。

Therefore, we plan to enhance the functionality of the app over the coming year with new high engagement experiences and features. This includes DebtIQ, our debt monitoring and management tool, which will help members stay on top of their debt and further highlight the urgency and value of refinancing their credit card debt.

因此，我們計劃在未來一年透過新的高參與度體驗和功能增強應用程式的功能。其中包括我們的債務監控和管理工具 DebtIQ，它將幫助會員掌握自己的債務，並進一步強調再融資信用卡債務的緊迫性和價值。

Even in its current early stage, DebtIQ is driving a nearly 50% increase in member engagement and a 25% increase in loan issuance for enrolled members. Our efforts on DebtIQ will be accelerated by last quarter's acquisition of Tally's award-winning debt management technology. We plan to release an enhanced version of DebtIQ with new features like credit card linking, automated payments, and contextual offers as we enter the third quarter.

即使目前還處於早期階段，DebtIQ 也推動會員參與度提高了近 50%，註冊會員的貸款發放量提高了 25%。我們上個季度收購了 Tally 屢獲殊榮的債務管理技術，這將加速我們在 DebtIQ 的努力。我們計劃在第三季發布增強型 DebtIQ 版本，其中包含信用卡連結、自動支付和情境優惠等新功能。

Looking ahead, with marketplace demand growing, loan sales prices improving, our marketing engine restarting, and investor and consumer innovations taking hold, we have ambitious plans as we move through the year, which the team and I are excited to deliver. That includes accelerating our origination's growth, increasing mobile app adoption and user engagement, continuing to innovate on our product roadmap, and improving shareholder returns.

展望未來，隨著市場需求的成長、貸款銷售價格的提高、我們的行銷引擎的重新啟動以及投資者和消費者創新的紮根，我們在今年制定了雄心勃勃的計劃，我和團隊都很高興能夠實現這些計劃。其中包括加速我們發起的成長、增加行動應用程式的採用和用戶參與度、繼續創新我們的產品路線圖以及提高股東回報。

In closing, I'm extremely proud of what LendingClub has been able to accomplish, and for that I'd like to thank the entire team who's made it happen. So, Drew, I'll turn it over to you to go through the results in detail.

最後，我對 LendingClub 所取得的成就感到非常自豪，為此，我要感謝使這一目標成為現實的整個團隊。所以，德魯，我會把詳細結果交給你。

Thanks Scott. I just want to add that. I'm also proud of the LendingClub team and what we were able to accomplish this year. Our investments of time, energy, and resources have put us in a great position from which to grow as we move through 2025. With that, let's go into the details of our financial results, starting with originations.

謝謝斯科特。我只是想補充這一點。我也為 LendingClub 團隊以及我們今年所取得的成就感到自豪。我們投入的時間、精力和資源，使我們在 2025 年擁有良好的發展條件。下面，讓我們從起源開始，詳細了解我們的財務結果。

We originated over $1.8 billion in the quarter, which was a 13% increase year-over-year. Originations were driven by continued product innovation while maintaining tight underwriting standards and industry-leading marketing efficiency. If you turn to page 12 of our earnings presentation, you can see the originations breakdown across the four funding programs.

本季我們的貸款金額超過 18 億美元，年增 13%。在維持嚴格的承保標準和業界領先的行銷效率的同時，持續的產品創新推動了保險業務的發展。如果您翻到我們的收益報告第 12 頁，您可以看到四個融資計劃的發起細目。

You will note that this quarter, the disposition mix shifted as the return of banks allowed us to sell more whole loans at better economics. This is an encouraging development and was complemented by a separate $400 million sale from our extended seasoning portfolio at the beginning of the quarter. Our improving marketplace economics further enabled us to reinvest and retain more of our high-yielding, held-for-investment loans as we entered 2025.

您會注意到，本季度，由於銀行的回歸使我們能夠以更好的經濟條件出售更多的整體貸款，因此處置組合發生了變化。這是一個令人鼓舞的發展，本季度初我們又從擴展的調味品組合中單獨出售了 4 億美元。當我們進入 2025 年時，不斷改善的市場經濟進一步使我們能夠再投資並保留更多高收益的投資貸款。

Now let's move on to pre-provision net revenue, or PPNR, which is total net revenue less noninterest expenses. PPNR was $74 million for the quarter, up 34% from $56 million last year, and came in above our guidance range of $60 million to $70 million. These results were driven by strong execution and improved loan sale pricing, as well as a few unique items that I'll call out as I break down revenue and expenses.

現在讓我們討論撥備前淨收入，即PPNR，即總淨收入減去非利息支出。本季的 PPNR 為 7,400 萬美元，比去年的 5,600 萬美元成長 34%，高於我們 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元的指導範圍。這些結果是由強勁的執行力和改善的貸款銷售定價以及我在細分收入和支出時提到的一些獨特項目所推動的。

As shown on page 13, total revenue for the quarter was $217 million, up 17% from $186 million in the same quarter of the prior year. Revenue benefited from the previously mentioned $400 million loan sale as well as favorable marks at the end of the quarter due to higher sales prices.

如第 13 頁所示，本季總營收為 2.17 億美元，較去年同期的 1.86 億美元成長 17%。收入受益於前面提到的 4 億美元貸款銷售，以及由於銷售價格上漲而在本季末取得的良好業績。

Now, let's go into the two components of revenue, starting with non-interest income. Noninterest income was $75 million in the quarter, up 38% from $54 million in the same quarter of the prior year. This increase was driven by loan sales prices which have improved each of the last four quarters. This price improvement was seen in both structured certificates as well as whole loans as banks returned to the platform.

現在，讓我們來了解一下收入的兩個組成部分，首先是非利息收入。本季非利息收入為 7,500 萬美元，較去年同期的 5,400 萬美元成長 38%。這一增長是由貸款銷售價格推動的，貸款銷售價格在過去四個季度都有所上漲。隨著銀行重返該平台，結構化證書和整體貸款的價格均有所改善。

Now, let's move on to net interest income, which was $142 million in the quarter, up 8% from $131 million in the same quarter last year. The increase was primarily driven by growth in our interest earning assets from our Structured Certificates program as well as the $1.3 billion loan portfolio purchase in the third quarter.

現在，讓我們來看看淨利息收入，本季淨利息收入為 1.42 億美元，較去年同期的 1.31 億美元成長 8%。這一增長主要得益於我們的結構化證書計劃產生的生息資產的增長，以及第三季度 13 億美元的貸款組合購買。

On slide 14, you can see our net interest margin was down slightly this quarter at 5.42% as expected. We believe this will represent the low point of our net interest margin over the coming quarters. The main driver of the sequential change was a higher mix of cash after we executed the $400 million extended seasoning sale. It's worth noting we saw substantial improvement in our funding costs during the quarter, driven by lowering our deposit rates in reaction to Fed cuts and the planned exit of our highest cost commercial deposit customer, which will lead to further funding cost improvements in Q1.

在投影片 14 上，您可以看到本季我們的淨利差略有下降，至 5.42%，符合預期。我們相信這將成為未來幾季淨利差的最低點。在我們執行了 4 億美元的延長調味銷售之後，連續變化的主要驅動力是現金組合的增加。值得注意的是，本季我們的融資成本大幅改善，這得益於聯準會降息所導致的存款利率下調，以及我們計劃退出成本最高的商業存款客戶，這將導致第一季的融資成本進一步改善。

Now, please turn to page 15 of our presentation, which refers to the second component of PPNR, non-interest expense. As I had indicated last quarter, our expense space did increase coming in at $143 million. The primary step-up of expenses was in the depreciation line driven by a $4.4 million pre-tax impairment of internally developed software. This was the result of our Tally Technology purchase, which made some of our internal development work no longer fit for purpose.

現在，請翻到我們簡報的第 15 頁，其中涉及 PPNR 的第二個組成部分，即非利息費用。正如我在上個季度指出的那樣，我們的支出空間確實增加了，達到 1.43 億美元。費用的增加主要是由於折舊費用增加，這歸因於內部開發軟體 440 萬美元的稅前減損。這是我們收購Tally Technology的結果，這使得我們一些內部開發的工作不再適合用途。

We were able to keep our marketing spend flat year over year despite higher origination volumes due to two items. First, the stronger customer response to our LevelUp Savings product allowed us to be more efficient in bringing in new customers. Second, we had higher deferral of marketing spend as we retained more healthcare investment loans in the period. In the first quarter, we do expect marketing expenses will move up to support the expansion of acquisition channels in future quarters.

由於兩項因素，儘管發起量增加，但我們仍能維持行銷支出較去年同期持平。首先，客戶對我們的 LevelUp Savings 產品的強烈反應使我們能夠更有效地吸引新客戶。其次，由於我們在此期間保留了更多的醫療投資貸款，因此我們更推遲了行銷支出。在第一季度，我們確實預期行銷費用將會上升，以支持未來幾季收購管道的擴張。

Now, let's turn to provision on page 16. Provision for credit losses was $63 million during the quarter compared to $42 million in the same quarter of the prior year. The increase was primarily due to higher day one CECL, as we stepped up our retention of held for investment loans to $605 million. Provision was also higher due to two smaller items.

現在，讓我們翻到第 16 頁的規定。本季信貸損失準備金為 6,300 萬美元，去年同期為 4,200 萬美元。成長的主要原因是第一天 CECL 較高，因為我們將持有的投資貸款保留額提高至 6.05 億美元。由於有兩件較小的物品，撥備金也較高。

First, we took an additional reserve for the remainder of the office property in our legacy commercial real estate portfolio that we first discussed on the second quarter earnings call. That loan is now fully reserved. Separately, we increased our economic qualitative reserves based on a modest increase in Moody's projection for future unemployment insurance claims.

首先，我們為我們在第二季財報電話會議上首次討論過的傳統商業房地產投資組合中剩餘的辦公物業提取了額外儲備。該筆貸款目前已全額保留。另外，根據穆迪對未來失業保險索賠的預測略有增加，我們增加了經濟定性儲備。

Taking a step back, overall credit continues to perform well as evidenced by our net charge-offs on our held for investment portfolio, improving to $46 million from $83 million in the same quarter of the prior year. The net charge-off ratio was 4.5% in the quarter, down from 6.6% in the same quarter last year.

回顧一下，整體信貸持續表現良好，這從我們持有的投資組合的淨沖銷額可以看出，從去年同期的 8,300 萬美元提高到 4,600 萬美元。本季淨核銷率為 4.5%，低於去年同期的 6.6%。

The net charge-off rate benefited from higher recoveries due to proceeds from a larger-than-usual sale of previously charged off loans. Without this benefit, the net charge-off rate would have been 4.9%. Net income for the quarter was $9.7 million, which includes the $3.2 million post-tax, non-cash software impairment I mentioned earlier.

淨核銷率受益於較高的回收率，因為出售先前核銷的貸款所得收益高於平常。如果沒有這項福利，淨沖銷率將達到 4.9%。本季淨收入為 970 萬美元，其中包括我之前提到的 320 萬美元稅後非現金軟體減損。

Now, let's move on to guidance, which assumes stable employment and inflation and one Fed rate cut in the second half of the year. We will continue to use quarterly guidance to inform near-term expectations. We are also providing a view into our Q4 2025 exit rate to give you a better sense of our expected growth and earnings trajectory as we enter 2026.

現在，讓我們來看看指導意見，該意見假設就業和通膨穩定，聯準會在下半年降息一次。我們將繼續使用季度指引來告知近期預期。我們還提供了 2025 年第四季的退出率預測，以便您更了解我們進入 2026 年時的預期成長和獲利軌跡。

For the first quarter, we anticipate originations of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion, up 12% year-on-year at the midpoint. We are gaining confidence that the sustained sales price improvements in the marketplace will allow us to open up additional paid marketing channels as we enter the seasonally favorable second and third quarters.

我們預計第一季的貸款發放將達到 18 億至 19 億美元，年比中位數成長 12%。我們越來越有信心，在進入季節性有利的第二季和第三季時，市場持續的銷售價格改善將使我們能夠開闢更多的付費行銷管道。

We expect to be able to continue growing loan volumes as we move through the year and plan to exit the fourth quarter at or above $2.3 billion in quarterly originations or roughly 25% above our current levels. We expect PPNR in the range of $60 million to $70 million in the first quarter, up 34% year-over-year at the midpoint, reflecting the increase in paid marketing to support an acceleration of growth in future quarters.

我們預計，隨著時間的推移，貸款量將繼續增長，並計劃在第四季度結束時，季度貸款發放量達到或超過 23 億美元，或比目前水準高出約 25%。我們預計第一季的 PPNR 在 6,000 萬美元至 7,000 萬美元之間，中位數年增 34%，這反映了付費行銷的增加以支持未來幾季的加速成長。

We plan to continue delivering positive net income in the first quarter with gradual improvement in earnings and return on tangible common equity or ROTCE as we move through the year. Our goal is to exit with an 8% ROTCE in the fourth quarter. All in all, we had a great 2024 and are positioned to build on the momentum as we enter 2025.

我們計劃在第一季繼續實現正的淨收入，並且隨著全年的推進，收益和有形普通股權益回報率（ROTCE）將逐步提高。我們的目標是在第四季以 8% 的 ROTCE 退出。總而言之，我們度過了美好的 2024 年，並準備在邁入 2025 年時繼續保持這一良好勢頭。

Let me, turn it back over to Scott for some parting thoughts.

讓我把話題轉回給史考特，讓他談談我的臨別感想。

Thanks, Drew. Before we close, I'd just like to take a minute to acknowledge the devastating fires in Los Angeles. We have activated plans to support our customers in the area, and our thoughts are with our members, employees, family, friends, and colleagues who've been affected. I'd also like to thank the many firefighters, aid workers, and other first responders for their heroic and tireless efforts.

謝謝，德魯。在我們結束之前，我想花一點時間來了解洛杉磯發生的毀滅性火災。我們已經啟動計劃來支持該地區的客戶，我們的心與受到影響的會員、員工、家人、朋友和同事同在。我還要感謝眾多消防員、救援人員和其他急救人員的英勇和不懈努力。

With that. I will turn it over to questions.

就這樣。我將把它轉交給提問者。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Vincent Caintic, BTIG.

文森特凱恩蒂克（Vincent Caintic），BTIG。

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a question first on the first quarter volume guidance. I'm just curious, seeing it flat quarter-over-quarter, if you can maybe talk about why that is versus the growth that you've been experiencing recently. And then if you could help us understand sort of what pricing you're contemplating over the course of 2025 and how sort of the change in interest rate expectations, especially in the longer end of the curve, might affect pricing and volume? Thank you.

嘿，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。首先問一下關於第一季銷售預期的問題。我只是很好奇，看到它與上一季持平，您是否可以談談為什麼會出現這種情況，而不是您最近經歷的增長。然後，如果您可以幫助我們了解您在 2025 年期間考慮的定價，以及利率預期的變化（特別是曲線較長的一端）將如何影響定價和交易量？謝謝。

Hey, Vincent, it’s Scott. I'll start with on volume. I think we signaled last quarter Q4, Q1 are typically our most challenging seasonal quarters in terms of customer response and kind of overall interest. I think if you look at our past pattern, it's pretty typical to see originations roughly in line Q4 to Q1. I think that was actually the case last year as well.

嘿，文森特，我是斯科特。我先從音量開始。我認為我們在上個季度第四季就表示，從客戶反應和整體興趣來看，第一季通常是我們最具挑戰性的季節性季度。我認為，如果你看我們過去的模式，你會發現起源大致與第四季和第一季一致是很典型的。我認為去年的情況實際上也是如此。

And the big driver for us, we're planning on maintaining discipline on credit. The big driver for us is going to be reactivating marketing channels, which we're really better off doing, especially given that response models, creative testing, all that. We've got to redo all that work. Doing it in these quarters is going to be more expensive than doing it in our more seasonably kind of beneficial quarter.

對我們來說，最大的動力是我們計劃保持信貸紀律。對我們來說，最大的驅動力就是重新啟動行銷管道，我們確實最好這樣做，特別是考慮到回應模型、創意測試等等。我們必須重新做所有的工作。在這些季度進行此項工作將比在我們更具季節性利潤的季度進行此項工作更加昂貴。

So the goal would be to really start testing our way. We'll actually start to turn those things on as we exit the quarter so that we can work through them in Q2 and build from there. In terms of pricing, Drew, you want to take that one?

所以我們的目標是真正開始測試我們的方法。實際上，我們將在本季結束時開始啟動這些事情，以便我們可以在第二季解決這些問題並從那裡開始。就定價而言，德魯，你想選那個嗎？

Yeah. In terms of, Vincent, I assume you're talking about sales prices. In terms of sales prices, even without the Fed doing further rate cuts throughout the year or maybe later in the year, we expect we'll still be able to raise sales prices as we've done over the last four quarters. I think the pace of that will depend on the mix of buyers and a little bit on the rate environment, but we continue to make traction in that space. And feel great about the performance of the loans we’re originating and selling, and that the buyers of all types have been very active, so we're encouraged by what we're seeing.

是的。就文森特而言，我認為你談論的是銷售價格。就銷售價格而言，即使聯準會今年全年或今年稍晚不進一步降息，我們預計仍能像過去四個季度那樣提高銷售價格。我認為這一進程的速度將取決於買家的組合以及利率環境，但我們將繼續在這一領域取得進展。我們對我們發放和銷售的貸款的表現感到非常滿意，各類買家都非常活躍，因此我們對所看到的情況感到鼓舞。

Yeah. and just to maybe touch on what we said in the prepared remarks, there's banks which, up to about a third of our volume in Q4, and we feel good about the pipeline. Again, I think we've said this before, exactly nailing down the end timeline of bank due diligence can be difficult. So, in the meanwhile, we've got other ways to get prices up, and that includes the rated product that we talked about on the calls, another way to drive an increase in prices without any help from the Fed.

是的。也許可以談談我們在準備好的評論中提到的內容，銀行在第四季度的交易量占我們交易量的三分之一左右，我們對這一管道感到滿意。再說一次，我想我們之前已經說過了，要準確確定銀行盡職調查的結束時間表可能很困難。因此，與此同時，我們還有其他方法來提高價格，其中包括我們在電話會議上談到的評級產品，這是在沒有美聯儲任何幫助的情況下推動價格上漲的另一種方法。

Okay, great. Thank you for that. And then focusing a bit more long-term. So it was helpful to see for your guidance for fourth quarter 2025 and the volume growth right there. I guess when we think long-term about the volume and the ROE, in the past, like in 2019, we've seen $3 billion per quarter run rates, and that was just in the marketplace, loan volume. And then in ROEs, I think your marginal ROEs in the 20% plus range. I'm just wondering what we should think about long term in terms of both that sort of volume and ROE metrics and what does it take to get to maybe that long, mature run rate? Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝你。然後將焦點更加集中在長期目標上。因此，了解您對 2025 年第四季的指導以及當時的銷售成長很有幫助。我想，當我們從長期考慮貸款量和 ROE 時，在過去，例如在 2019 年，我們看到每季的貸款利率為 30 億美元，而這還只是市場上的貸款量。然後在 ROE 方面，我認為您的邊際 ROE 在 20% 以上的範圍內。我只是想知道，從長期來看，我們應該如何考慮這種數量和 ROE 指標，以及如何達到這種長期、成熟的運作率？謝謝。

Yeah, so I'll take first volume. If you look over the past five plus years, you can see that we've routinely been at, call it, $3 billion to $4 billion a quarter in issuance. Given some of the data we've shared on the size of the TAM and the amount of savings we can provide, we don't see why we can't get back there and eventually beyond, even with, let's call it a tighter credit box. I think the question on timing of the when will be one of the reasons we thought about the guide this year, the reason we split it into kind of Q1 versus Q4 exit is, as I mentioned, we haven't really dropped direct mail in a couple of years.

是的，所以我將選擇第一卷。如果回顧過去五年多的時間，你會發現我們每季的發行量通常都達到 30 億到 40 億美元。鑑於我們分享的關於 TAM 規模和我們可以提供的節省金額的一些數據，我們認為即使信貸收緊，我們也可以回到那裡並最終超越那裡盒子。我認為時間問題將是我們今年考慮指南的原因之一，我們將其分為第一季和第四季度退出的原因，正如我所提到的，我們還沒有真正放棄直接郵寄幾年。

We haven't been active in paid search, digital advertising, and the pace at which those response models get tuned, we find the right creative, we tune the user experience. It's hard to predict that exactly. We're confident that we'll get it done over the course of the next couple of quarters. And our intent and belief is we'll continue to grow from there. That's our exit rate is not our destination in either volume or ROTCE. If you want to.

我們在付費搜尋、數位廣告方面並不活躍，而且這些回應模型的調整速度也不快，我們找到了正確的創意，我們調整了用戶體驗。很難準確預測這一點。我們有信心在接下來的幾個季度內完成這一目標。我們的意圖和信念是，我們將繼續成長。這意味著，無論是從數量還是 ROTCE 來看，我們的退出率都不是我們的目標。如果你想。

Yeah, I was going to make that same point. I mean, as we're giving the exit rate ROTCE for 2025 greater than 8%, that's not meant to be our destination. 2025 is a year where we're improving performance and passing through to 2026 and beyond. So, we still haven't given obviously the long-term guidance on where we expect to be, but we would expect the end of 2025 to be a stepping stone to further improvement.

是的，我正要表達同樣的觀點。我的意思是，由於我們給出的 2025 年 ROTCE 退出率超過 8%，所以這並不意味著這就是我們的目標。 2025 年是我們提升績效並邁向 2026 年及更遠的一年。因此，我們顯然還沒有給出預期的長期指導，但我們預計 2025 年底將成為進一步改善的墊腳石。

Yeah and one other comment Drew mentioned, we're assuming one rate cut which comes in the back half of the year, so there's no real material benefit in our results from that this year. Should the tone change there and things shift in the other direction, that will obviously be constructive. So the guide we're giving really doesn't assume much benefit from the broader rate environment within the year.

是的，德魯提到的另一條評論是，我們假設一次降息將在今年下半年發生，因此今年我們的業績不會因此而產生實際實質利益。如果那裡的基調發生改變並且事情朝著另一個方向發展，那顯然是具有建設性的。因此，我們給出的指南實際上並沒有假設今年更廣泛的利率環境會帶來多大好處。

Great, very helpful. Thank you.

非常好，非常有幫助。謝謝。

Brad Capuzzi, Piper Sandler.

布拉德·卡普齊、派珀·桑德勒。

Hi guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just given the higher origination outlook, has there been any change regarding loan performance between different cohorts of consumers between prime, near prime, and from the lower end consumers?

嗨，大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。鑑於更高的發放前景，優質、近優質和低端消費者之間的不同消費者群體的貸款表現是否發生了變化？

Yeah, So, based on what you can see in some of the presentation materials, we're continuing to see quite stable performance across the board, similar to what I think you hear from lenders across multiple categories. I'd say stable but elevated is the right way of thinking about it. The degree of active management that's required, let's call it today versus maybe a year ago is certainly lower, but it's not static. We continue to, on the margins, tweak here and there.

是的，根據您在一些演示材料中看到的情況，我們繼續看到各方面表現都相當穩定，類似於我認為您從多個類別的貸方那裡聽到的情況。我認為穩定但提升是正確的思考方式。今天所需的主動管理程度與一年前相比肯定較低，但並不是一成不變的。我們繼續在邊緣處進行一些調整。

Things are pretty much coming in in line with our expectations. I'd say maybe a bit of a brighter spot at the bottom end of the spectrum, call it in that near prime space where we're seeing outperformance. I'd hesitate to say to conclude that that's maybe broader and due to the consumer versus potentially our own underwriting there, a little difficult to parse those two out, but we're seeing performance consistent with our expectations across the board and some outperformance down there.

事情基本上符合我們的預期。我想說，也許在光譜的底端會有一個稍微明亮一點的地方，稱之為接近黃金空間，我們看到了優異的表現。我不太願意說這個結論可能更廣泛，而且由於消費者與我們自己的承保有關，很難將這兩者區分開來，但我們看到的表現與我們的預期一致，而且有些表現優於預期那裡。

Thanks. And then just in terms of your decision to hold more loans on balance sheet, especially as loan sale pricing improves, coming from bank buyers especially. Can you just talk about your pacing there throughout 2025? And then since we're about a year out from the bank operating agreement expiring, is there any updates to your capital deployment strategy going forward?

謝謝。然後就您決定在資產負債表上持有更多貸款而言，特別是當貸款銷售定價改善時，尤其是來自銀行買家的貸款。您能談談您在 2025 年的步伐嗎？然後，由於距離銀行營運協議到期還有大約一年的時間，您未來的資本配置策略有什麼更新嗎？

Yeah, so we held $605 million this quarter in terms of loans we put on balance sheet into held for investment. I think we will look to retain in the similar amounts of loans on the balance sheet. But one of the areas we want to increase the amount of hold is in the held for sale portfolio.

是的，本季我們持有 6.05 億美元的貸款，這些貸款已列入資產負債表，用於投資。我認為我們將尋求在資產負債表上保留類似金額的貸款。但我們希望增加持有量的領域之一是持有待售的投資組合。

We sold, obviously as we mentioned a couple of times on the call already, we sold $400 million out of there, and we're going to look to replenish some of the inventory in the held for-sale portfolio because we think we'll continue to see demand there. We'll also maintain a healthy level of HFI as we go through the year. May not quite be at the $600 million level each quarter, but we'll continue to hold an HFI as well. And obviously price and demand will drive some of that decision making quarter to quarter

我們賣掉了，顯然，正如我們在電話會議上幾次提到的那樣，我們賣出了 4 億美元，我們將尋求補充持有的待售投資組合中的一些庫存，因為我們認為我們會繼續看到那裡的需求。我們也將在今年保持健康的 HFI 水平。每個季度可能不會達到 6 億美元的水平，但我們也會繼續保持 HFI。顯然，價格和需求將推動每季的部分決策

I’d say, in general, operating conditions in the marketplace have improved quite significantly. I'm sure you're looking at capital markets activities even outside of us. So intent is to lean into that this year. The held for sale -- the building of that portfolio and that strategy has been very successful and we want to make sure we have inventory available because what we're seeing is that large buyers, like the capability to get started with a decent size upfront and then can move to an ongoing purchase to maintain their portfolio size. So the plan is to facilitate that.

我想說，整體來說，市場經營狀況已經有了相當顯著的改善。我確信你們甚至也在關注我們之外的資本市場活動。因此，今年的目標是實現這一點。持有待售資產——該投資組合的構建和該策略非常成功，我們希望確保我們有庫存，因為我們看到的是，大買家喜歡以相當大的預付款開始交易的能力然後可以轉向持續購買以維持其投資組合規模。所以該計劃就是為了促進這一點。

Thanks. I appreciate you taking my questions.

謝謝。感謝您回答我的問題。

Tim Switzer, KBW.

提姆‧斯威策，KBW。

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. There's a very nice decrease on the deposit costs this quarter. Can you talk about what has been the customer response and what are your expectations on managing deposit costs going forward and if you're able to maybe quantify at all the planned exit of your commercial deposit customer, that would be really helpful.

嘿，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。本季的存款成本大幅下降。您能否談談客戶的反應如何以及您對未來管理存款成本的期望，如果您能夠量化所有商業存款客戶的計劃退出，那將非常有幫助。

Yeah, so we had a few factors which I outlined on the call. The first one you just mentioned was this large commercial customer that had been with us for many years and contractually we were paying just above Fed funds on that deposit. And in the fourth quarter that contract was up and so we were able to exit off that deposit which was really the last of our sort of large legacy relationships. So that's going to have more carry-forward benefit as we go into Q1.

是的，我們有幾個因素，我在電話中概述了這些因素。您剛才提到的第一個客戶是與我們合作多年的大型商業客戶，根據合同，我們支付的存款金額略高於聯邦基金。在第四季度，該合約到期了，因此我們可以退出這筆押金，這實際上是我們最後的大型遺留關係。因此，當我們進入第一季時，這將帶來更多的結轉效益。

As you look at sort of the liquid deposits or the non-CD deposits, we were able to effectively reprice about an 80% beta compared to the Fed lowering rates this quarter. I don't know that we'll continue at quite that pace going forward, but I think what was also encouraging was the competitive dynamic in the market around deposit pricing was very rational, I'd say, I guess, and I think many competitors also moved, allowing us to keep our deposit costs moving down more in line with Fed funds as it happened. And do you want to talk about level of savings?

當您查看流動存款或非 CD 存款時，與聯準會本季降低利率相比，我們能夠有效地重新定價約 80% 的貝塔係數。我不知道我們未來是否會繼續保持這樣的速度，但我認為同樣令人鼓舞的是，圍繞存款定價的市場競爭動態非常理性，我想說，我認為很多競爭對手也採取了行動，使我們能夠保持存款成本的下降，與聯邦基金的下降保持同步。您想談談儲蓄水平嗎？

Yeah, yeah, so just, we launched that product in August. We were able to bring in $1.2 billion in total deposit, so very, very successful. We've won multiple awards for that experience. And savings behavior, we're seeing there, in line with the brand promise where we're trying to reward people for engaging in good financial behavior. So, you get our best rate if you are adding to your savings account every month. And what we're seeing is more than 70% of our customers are doing that.

是的，是的，我們在八月推出了該產品。我們總共獲得了 12 億美元的存款，因此非常非常成功。我們憑藉著這段經歷贏得了多個獎項。我們觀察到的儲蓄行為符合品牌承諾，即我們試圖獎勵有良好財務行為的人。因此，如果您每月向儲蓄帳戶存錢，您將獲得我們的最優惠利率。我們發現超過 70% 的客戶都這樣做。

So, I think it's both a good product for the customer and has been successful for us. So -- and it gives us another tool in the toolkit to manage as rates are coming down. So we're pretty pleased with the response. I think Drew mentioned, in fact, customer response to the product was so high that we were able to actually save on some of our marketing expenses because the response and efficiency was really strong.

所以，我認為這對客戶來說是一個好產品，對我們來說也是一個成功。所以——它為我們提供了另一種在利率下降時進行管理的工具。因此，我們對反饋非常滿意。我記得德魯提到過，事實上，客戶對產品的反應非常強烈，由於反應和效率非常高，我們實際上能夠節省一些行銷費用。

Okay, got it. Thank you. And I had a follow-up on your comment about your held for investment loans potentially not going over the $600 million mark. Again, was that a comment just for Q1 or for the rest of 2025? And if so, why not increase your HFI loans as you have an opportunity to continue increasing originations overall and profitability?

好的，明白了。謝謝。我跟進了您關於持有的投資貸款可能不會超過 6 億美元大關的評論。再說一遍，這僅針對第一季的評論，還是針對 2025 年剩餘時間的評論？如果是這樣，為什麼不增加您的 HFI 貸款，因為您有機會繼續增加整體發放量和盈利能力？

Yeah, listen, I think first of all, we'll take it quarter by quarter and see how things play out to determine exactly where we end up. That's first and foremost. I don't see us being down as low as we were at the beginning of this year. But I think, at least as we look into Q1, we'll probably be a little bit under where we were in Q4, but at the same time, we'll be building up some of the held-for-sale portfolio, so that we have more inventory available to sell as the buyers keep coming back and prices are moving up.

是的，聽著，我認為首先，我們會逐一進行，看看情況如何發展，以確定我們最終的具體結果。這是首要的。我認為我們的狀況不會像今年年初那樣低迷。但我認為，至少從第一季來看，我們的業績可能會比第四季略低一些，但同時，我們將建立一些持有待售的投資組合，因此隨著買家不斷回歸且價格上漲，我們有更多的庫存可供銷售。

Yeah, the total balance sheet will be growing. Division between the senior note, the held for sale portfolio, and the held for investment portfolio might change based on different market conditions.

是的，總資產債務表將會成長。優先票據、持有待售組合及持有待投資組合之間的劃分可能會根據不同的市場情況而改變。

Okay. Got it. Thank you, guys.

好的。知道了。謝謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Giuliano Bologna, Compass.

朱利亞諾·博洛尼亞，指南針。

Oh, good afternoon in the quarter, Maybe digging into the guidance and the outlook, I have a couple of questions around that. And one thing I'd be curious is thinking about seasonality. First quarter is usually the weakest, fourth quarter is usually the second weakest, and 2Q, 3Q are the strongest. When we think about the $2.3 billion plus for the fourth quarter, should we think about that having any kind of normal seasonal impact from the kind of the 3Q to 4Q role or should it be kind of around throughout the throughout the years what you're implying with the guidance and what's implied in the fourth quarter at this point?

哦，本季下午好，也許深入探討指導和展望，我對此有幾個問題。我很好奇的一件事是對季節性的思考。第一季通常最弱，第四季通常第二弱，而第二季和第三季最強。當我們考慮第四季度的 23 億美元以上時，我們是否應該考慮從第三季度到第四季度的任何正常的季節性影響，或者它應該在整個年度中都存在影響？目前第四季又暗示了什麼？

Yeah. So if you know, again, if you think about just about seasonality and strip out any actions we may be taking where things were doing to drive growth, let's say what we typically do is we push our way into new partnerships, new channels, test new products and experiences, grow the volume in Q2 and Q3, and then try to basically hold it there, Q4 and Q1.

是的。因此，如果你再想想季節性，去掉我們可能採取的任何行動，比如說推動成長，我們通常會做的是開拓新的合作夥伴關係、新的通路、測試新產品和新體驗，在第二季度和第三季增加銷量，然後嘗試基本上保持在那裡，即第四季度和第一季。

So roughly in line, this past Q4, just due to where some of the holidays fell right, both Christmas and New Year's fallen, and kind of hitting a bit in the middle of the week, say the seasonality there is a little stronger than typical years. But, say, the general rule ramp-up Q2 and Q3, try to hold roughly flat. And by roughly, I mean, if there's 2%, 3% down, that's us counteracting, maybe an inherent 4% or 5% seasonal pressure that we typically see.

因此，大致而言，在剛剛過去的第四季度，由於一些假期恰逢其時，例如聖誕節和新年，並且恰逢一周的中間，因此季節性比往常要強烈一些年。但是，一般規則是增加 Q2 和 Q3，盡量保持大致平穩。大致來說，如果下降 2% 或 3%，那麼我們就可以抵消我們通常會看到的固有 4% 或 5% 的季節性壓力。

That's helpful. And there's an earlier question about some historical trends getting into the $3 billion to $4 billion quarterly run rate. I'd be curious when you think about rolling out the new programs or the new kind of re-engaging in dormant marketing programs.

這很有幫助。之前有一個問題，涉及 30 億至 40 億美元季度運行率的一些歷史趨勢。當您考慮推出新計劃或以新方式重新啟動休眠的行銷計劃時，我會感到好奇。

I'm curious what your typical turnaround time is to get a sense of what the response rate is and if you have any kind of enhanced or beneficial kind of response rates from that, how does the funding capacity look? Can you execute and push through the incremental volume to loan buyers? Do you have private credit buyers, banks, or structure (ph) product, or have a structured buyers that could step in and fill that void if you had incremental volume that was within your credit box and that you could originate.

我很好奇，您的典型週轉時間是多長，以了解回應率是多少，以及您是否有任何增強的或有益的回應率，資金能力如何？您能否執行並將增量推向貸款購買者？您是否有私人信貸買家、銀行或結構化 (ph) 產品，或者是否有結構化買家可以介入並填補這一空白（如果您擁有在您的信貸範圍內並且可以發起的增量）。

Yeah, I mean, so one I'd say we're not starting from scratch. We've been active in these channels for most of our history. So we have some sense of the range of outcomes. Getting to the range we like best, which is highly optimized and what will take some time. In terms of marketplace demand, yeah, I mean, what's really evolved over the last couple of quarters is what we think of as what's called our fill rate, meaning are we selling everything we can produce, or is there more demand than we're producing?

是的，我想說的是，我們並不是從零開始。我們大部分時間都活躍於這些管道。因此我們對結果的範圍有一定的了解。要達到我們最喜歡的範圍，這是高度優化的，但需要一些時間。就市場需求而言，是的，我的意思是，過去幾季真正改變的是我們所認為的供應率，這意味著我們是否銷售了我們能生產的所有產品，或者需求是否超出了我們的預期。

That's really started to shift really markedly in Q4, and we expect to continue in Q1, which is we have more purchase capacity, which is why we're saying, hey, it's time to turn on the marketing and increase our production. So we're not concerned about our ability to sell the loans that we produce.

這種狀況在第四季度確實開始發生明顯轉變，我們預計這種狀況將在第一季度繼續，也就是說我們擁有更多的購買能力，這就是為什麼我們說，嘿，現在是時候加大行銷力度並增加產量了。因此，我們並不擔心我們出售所發放貸款的能力。

And then maybe one last on the marketing expenses and kind of the percentage of volume. There's obviously some benefit to more HFI loans. And it kind of seems like you might be pushing a little bit more into the HFS book and some other channels as you grow based on some liability kind of $600-ish million HFI commentary. How should we think about that? Where your marketing should go as percentage of volume? Just thinking about that as you reopen some of the channels and push further into some of those newer channels at this point.

最後再談談行銷費用和銷售百分比。顯然，增加 HFI 貸款會帶來一些好處。而且根據某種負債約 6 億美元的 HFI 評論，隨著業務的成長，您似乎可能會將更多的精力投入 HFS 書籍和其他一些管道。我們該如何思考這個問題？您的行銷量應佔多少百分比？當您重新開放某些管道並進一步推進某些較新的管道時，只需考慮這一點。

Yeah, I mean, we're clearly in our most efficient channels right now, right? So as we grow, we're going to have a little bit of increase in the level of marketing expense, the kind of marketing expense rate or the CAC, if you will, as we bring in those accounts. Also, if we shift more volume to HFS, I think what you're identifying is we won't defer the marketing expense.

是的，我的意思是，我們現在顯然處於最有效的管道，對吧？因此，隨著我們的發展，隨著我們引入這些帳戶，我們的行銷費用水準、行銷費用率或 CAC（如果你願意的話）將會略有增加。此外，如果我們將更多的產量轉移到 HFS，我想您會確認我們不會推遲行銷費用。

But as a reminder, we'll also get to recognize the origination fee upfront, not defer that as well. And so that's a positive trade in the immediate P&L when we make that shift. So I think over time, you can look back at our history and you can see what our marketing efficiency look like at higher volumes and we would expect it to be similar trajectory as we grow but we'll always be looking to see if we can improve upon that as we move forward.

但提醒一下，我們還要提前確認發起費，而不是延遲支付。因此，當我們進行這種轉變時，這對於即時損益而言是一筆正面的交易。因此，我認為隨著時間的推移，你可以回顧我們的歷史，你可以看到我們的行銷效率在更高的數量下是什麼樣的，我們預計隨著我們的發展，它會有類似的軌跡，但我們會一直在尋找，看看我們是否能夠隨著我們繼續前進，我們會不斷改進。

That's very helpful. I appreciate the time and I will jump back in the queue.

這非常有幫助。我很感謝您的時間，我會重新回到隊列中。

Bill Ryan, Seaport Research Partners.

比爾‧瑞安（Bill Ryan），海港研究夥伴。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. First, on the PPNR guide for Q1, you talked about $60 million to $70 million. It's a little bit below consensus $73 million, and the $74 million you reported in the fourth quarter. And you also called out a couple of special expense items in the fourth quarter. So as we think about the Q1 number of $60 million to $70 million, what are the key drivers of it being a little bit lower relative to Q4? Just sort of like expense driven or some of the revenue expectations if you could kind of talk about that a little bit.

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。首先，在 Q1 的 PPNR 指南中，您談到了 6000 萬到 7000 萬美元。該數字略低於普遍預期的 7,300 萬美元以及第四季度報告的 7,400 萬美元。您也提到了第四季的幾項特殊開支項目。那麼，當我們考慮第一季的 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元的數字時，相對於第四季度，該數字略低的主要原因是什麼？有點像是費用驅動或一些收入預期，如果您可以稍微談一下的話。

Yeah, h. I think probably the most relevant piece is going to be an increase in marketing spend which will happen both probably deposit levels marketing spending deposits getting back to normal levels in Q1, but also the ramp in the channels that will begin. As we go throughout Q1, we will have a higher level of marketing spend coming through as well.

是啊，h。我認為最相關的部分可能是行銷支出的增加，這不僅可能使存款水平、行銷支出、存款在第一季恢復正常水平，而且也將開始增加管道。隨著第一季的到來，我們的行銷支出也將增加。

That's probably the biggest factor that will change in PPNR as we go quarter to quarter. We do expect revenue to go up a little bit, but we had some benefits from the $400 million sale and portfolio marks that we're not assuming repeat as we go into Q1 as well. So, we expect revenue flat to up, but we won't have those benefits that we had in Q4 coming through.

這可能是 PPNR 每個季度都會發生變化的最大因素。我們確實預計收入會略有增加，但是 4 億美元的銷售額和投資組合為我們帶來了一些好處，我們預計在進入第一季時這些好處不會重複出現。因此，我們預期收入將持平或上升，但我們不會獲得第四季所獲得的收益。

Okay. And just to follow up on the competition, obviously people on the call watch some of the competitors and what's going on. How would you describe the competitive landscape? Is it getting quite a bit more aggressive or is there plenty of origination volume potential for everybody out there?

好的。為了追蹤比賽情況，顯然通話中的人員會觀察一些競爭對手的情況以及他們正在發生的事情。您如何描述競爭格局？它是否變得更具侵略性，或者是否對每個人來說都有足夠的發起潛力？

Yeah. No, We haven't really seen any shift in the competitive landscape. I'd say, as I said before, this market has always been competitive, and it continues to be so. We talked a little bit about deposit rates, and we were at roughly an 80% beta on the way up. We expect to be at roughly an 80% beta on the way down. If you look at coupons which is one measure of loan coupons which is one measure of competitive activity, we were at roughly a 60% beta on the way up, and we expect to be similar on the way down, and it hasn't moved that much yet.

是的。不，我們實際上沒有看到競爭格局有任何變化。我想說，正如我之前所說，這個市場一直競爭激烈，而且現在仍然如此。我們討論了一下存款利率，我們的利率上升到了大約 80% 的貝塔值。我們預計下降過程中的測試版本將達到約 80%。如果你看一下優惠券，這是衡量貸款優惠券的一種指標，也是衡量競爭活動的一種指標，我們在上漲過程中的貝塔係數大約為60%，我們預計在下跌過程中貝塔係數也會類似，而且它沒有移動還沒有那麼多。

I think our exit rate was maybe somewhere between 10 and 30 basis points on coupons as we exited the quarter. So not seeing a ton of change there. For us, something we haven't talked about, but if you look at what Drew mentioned, we're in our most efficient channels. And what we've been really focused on since the rate environment shifted is getting more and more efficient and productive in those channels.

我認為，當我們結束本季度時，我們的退出率可能在息票的 10 到 30 個基點之間。因此那裡沒有看到太多的變化。對我們來說，我們還沒有談論過這個，但如果你看看德魯提到的，我們正處於最有效的管道中。自從利率環境改變以來，我們真正關注的是這些管道變得越來越有效率、越來越有成效。

And so like -- you look at our conversion rate on some of the leading aggregators, we converted roughly twice the rate as anybody else, right? So our ability to go from an offer all the way through to a converted loan, and we haven't seen any meaningful change in that. It's really going to just be a question of, as I mentioned, lighting up some additional channels to really drive that volume through. The borrower demand is there and I'd say borrower demand is there and we feel quite confident about our ability to convert it.

所以就像——你看看我們在一些領先的聚合器上的轉換率，我們的轉換率大約是其他任何人的兩倍，對嗎？因此，我們的能力可以從報價一直轉換到轉換貸款，而且我們還沒有看到其中有任何有意義的變化。正如我所提到的那樣，這實際上只是一個問題，即點亮一些額外的管道來真正推動這一音量。借款人的需求是存在的，我想說借款人的需求是存在的，我們對轉化它的能力非常有信心。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

John Hecht, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的約翰‧赫克特 (John Hecht)。

Hello. Congratulations and thanks very much for taking my questions. I guess the first one's more of an extension to some of the discussion points and that is that you guys have a lot of programs for funding now, whether it's the securities program or holding loans on the balance sheet or extended aging. And I know over time you've talked about you know going after the one or using the one that's probably the most -- highest from a return perspective at the time.

你好。恭喜您，非常感謝您回答我的問題。我想第一個問題更多的是對一些討論要點的延伸，那就是你們現在有很多融資計劃，無論是證券計劃還是資產負債表上的持有貸款或延長時效。而且我知道，隨著時間的推移，您一直在談論追求那個或使用當時從回報角度來看可能最高的。

But there's a lot of different, I guess, factors to consider now because some markets might have more favorable pricing dynamics for you guys or economic dynamics, but some are a little bit more reliable over the intermediate term. So, I guess the question is just other than some of the primary focus on return on capital, what are some other secondary factors that you guys prioritize in terms of allocating against the different funding channels?

但我想，現在需要考慮很多不同的因素，因為有些市場可能對你們有更有利的定價動態或經濟動態，但有些市場在中期會更可靠一些。所以，我想問題是，除了主要關注資本報酬率之外，在針對不同融資管道進行分配方面，你們還優先考慮哪些次要因素？

Yeah, so maybe I'll start and Drew, feel free to jump in. So, as we mentioned in the past, our belief is our ability to deliver consistency and size is generally rewarded in terms of both price and predictability. We are not, in general, locking in a lot of longer term large deals like you're reading about elsewhere because we believe the price we have seen and believe will continue the price trajectory is up.

是的，也許我會開始，然後德魯，請隨意加入。因此，正如我們過去提到的那樣，我們相信我們提供一致性和規模的能力通常會在價格和可預測性方面獲得回報。總體而言，我們不會鎖定大量長期大額交易，就像您在其他地方讀到的那樣，因為我們相信我們已經看到的價格，並且相信價格軌跡將繼續上漲。

And what we're seeing is, if the bank buyers or great buyers of fine paper, as they come back, we're going to sell more whole loans. You saw that. You can see in our presentation, you'll see that the mix of whole loans went up because banks are buying whole loans and therefore, and they're buying at better pricing. So we'll move there.

我們看到的是，如果銀行買家或優質票據的大買家回歸，我們就會出售更多的整筆貸款。你看到了。您可以在我們的演示中看到，整體貸款組合有所上升，因為銀行正在購買整體貸款，因此，他們以更優惠的價格購買。所以我們就搬到那裡去。

When it comes to the certificates, there's a way to get those prices up too, which is the rated product. So we are being deliberate in how we evolve the mix and also drive within the static mix price increases. And it's our expectation that over the course of 2025, we're going to be able to continue to drive that lift in pricing, which will, again, allow us to feed more into marketing to drive faster top line growth.

說到證書，還有一種方法可以提高這些價格，那就是評級產品。因此，我們正在認真考慮如何改進組合，並推動靜態組合價格上漲。我們預計，到 2025 年，我們將能夠繼續提高價格，這將再次使我們能夠在行銷方面投入更多資金，從而推動更快的營收成長。

Yeah. Okay. And then follow up question, I mean, Scott, you did, I did hear you say, I think you even said all parts of the balance sheet, all buckets should grow this year. But I'm wondering, considering your capital and your goals with respect to capital levels and the ability to use a secondary marketplace, what do you think, what's kind of balance sheet growth that you think, but is there a range of growth that you're striving for just for kind of modeling purposes?

是的。好的。然後是後續問題，我的意思是，斯科特，你確實，我確實聽到你說，我認為你甚至說過資產負債表的所有部分，所有的桶今年都應該增長。但我想知道，考慮到你的資本和你在資本水平方面的目標，以及利用二級市場的能力，你認為資產負債表增長是什麼樣的，但你認為增長的範圍是多少？ ' 只是為了某種建模目的而努力？

Yeah. this year we obviously experienced, actually the last several years since we bought the bank, we've experienced pretty robust balance sheet growth. We expect to grow above the industry again this year in terms of balance sheet growth. Probably not quite at the levels that we grew balance sheet in previous years, but we're still expecting robust growth compared to the industry. As far as capital, we still have excess capital at the holding company that we can deploy down to the bank. So capital at this point isn't a constraint. We're not viewing it as a constraint to our growth.

是的。今年我們顯然經歷了，實際上自從我們收購這家銀行以來的過去幾年，我們的資產負債表經歷了相當強勁的成長。我們預計今年資產負債表成長將再次高於該行業。可能還沒有達到前幾年資產負債表成長的水平，但與行業相比，我們仍然預計會有強勁的成長。就資本而言，我們控股公司仍有剩餘資本可以分配給銀行。因此，目前資本並不是限制因素。我們並不認為這是我們發展的限制因素。

Okay, super helpful. Thanks guys.

好的，非常有幫助。謝謝大家。

Reggie Smith, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的雷吉史密斯。

Hey guys, I'm kind of piecing together the storyline here. It sounds like you guys have shifted or had historically shifted away from direct mail and I guess paid search and focus more on the aggregated sites. My question, one, is that correct?

嘿夥計們，我在這裡把故事情節拼湊起來。聽起來你們已經或曾經放棄過直接郵寄和付費搜索，而更加重視聚合網站。我的問題是：第一，這是正確的嗎？

But then two, as you move to direct mail and paid search, what are some of the trade-offs? How does it change the applicant pool, maybe how price-sensitive they are? Are there any changes there as you kind of shift over?

但是第二，當你轉向直接郵寄和付費搜尋時，需要權衡哪些因素呢？它如何改變申請者群體，也許他們對價格有多敏感？當你轉變的時候，那裡會發生一些變化嗎？

And then how are you guys thinking about turned down service? So I would imagine as you kind of expand your marketing aperture you'll probably get people in here where there's a higher rejection rate. Is there a way to monetize those rejections. And then I have a follow-up. Thank you.

那你們對於拒絕服務有什麼看法呢？因此，我可以想像，隨著你擴大行銷範圍，你可能會吸引到拒絕率更高的人。有沒有辦法將這些拒絕貨幣化？然後我有一個後續問題。謝謝。

Yeah. So Reggie on the channels, what I'd say is, when the rate environment shifted and loan pricing went from, par to 101 down to, call it 96.5, unit margin went way down, which meant ability to afford more expensive marketing channels came down. And there's some other aspects when you use pre-screen channels, direct mail is an example. You have an obligation to provide credit.

是的。關於管道，我想說的是，當利率環境發生變化，貸款定價從票面利率 101 降至 96.5 時，單位利潤率就會大幅下降，這意味著負擔更昂貴的營銷管道的能力。當您使用預先篩選管道時，還存在一些其他方面，例如直效郵件。您有義務提供信貸。

So if you're in an environment where there's some funding uncertainty and you have an obligation to provide credit, you got to be thoughtful about that. So we kind of retrenched to our most efficient channels that included aggregators amongst others, other partnerships, and those are our own channels, our mobile app, our existing customer base, and that's how we -- how and why we invested in the lending mobile app as well as the top-up program to drive that repeat business as well.

因此，如果您處在資金不確定的環境中，而您有義務提供信貸，那麼您就必須深思熟慮。因此，我們縮減了最有效的管道，其中包括聚合器和其他合作夥伴，這些都是我們自己的管道、我們的行動應用程式、我們現有的客戶群，這就是我們投資行動貸款的方式和原因。

We go back into the other channel, it doesn't change our credit box. We roughly maintain 50% new to 50% repeat on a monthly basis. We'll still be we'll maintain the same kind of credit criteria, but different channels can appeal to different audiences and your point is accurate that there are some different price sensitivities in different channels. For example, when you're in a comparison shopping site versus you're giving independent offers.

我們回到另一個頻道，它不會改變我們的信用箱。我們每個月大概維持 50% 的新內容和 50% 的重複內容。我們仍將維持相同的信用標準，但不同的管道可以吸引不同的受眾，你的觀點是正確的，不同的管道有不同的價格敏感度。例如，當您在比較購物網站上時，您會給予獨立報價。

So all of that is factored into our pricing strategy and our return strategy. We wouldn't expect to see any kind of meaningful shift in the returns we're delivering to investors or to ourselves because all that's factored into how we go after all of those categories. And yeah, I think to your next question is, when we think about maintaining a pretty strong discipline on credit, is there opportunity to open that up to people to do second looks, the answer to that is absolutely and that can feed into our growth as we go through the year

所有這些都考慮到了我們的定價策略和回報策略。我們不會期望看到我們向投資者或我們自己提供的回報發生任何有意義的變化，因為所有這些都已考慮到我們如何追求所有這些類別。是的，我想你的下一個問題是，當我們考慮保持相當嚴格的信貸紀律時，是否有機會向人們開放這一點，進行第二次審視，答案是肯定的，這可以促進我們的增長。隨著我們度過這一年

Yeah. On that last point, has that opportunity improved incrementally in the last few months? It sounds like one of your competitors is kind of leaning into that. And I was just curious if that opportunity was there for you guys as well?

是的。關於最後一點，過去幾個月這種機會是否逐漸改善？聽起來你的某個競爭對手有點傾向此。我只是好奇你們是否也有這樣的機會？

I would say the more volume we're generating top of funnel, the more there is, as long as assuming a steady credit box, the more there is available at the bottom of the funnel. So as we move into the latter part of the year, we would expect that opportunity to improve.

我想說，我們在漏斗頂部產生的數量越多，可用的量就越多，只要假設信用箱穩定，漏斗底部可用的量就越多。因此，隨著進入今年下半年，我們預計這個機會將會改善。

Got it. And then last question from me. I believe you guys talked about getting some of these structured securities rated. And I want to make sure I understand that correctly. This would be the senior tranche would get a rating. And so you could essentially sell both buckets, the senior supported tranche, as well as the more equity-based tranche, where today you're only selling the equity tranche to someone else. Is that the right way to think about it?

知道了。這是我的最後一個問題。我相信你們討論過對一些結構性證券進行評級。我想確保我理解得正確。這將是獲得評級的高級部分。因此，你基本上可以同時出售這兩個部分，即優先支援部分，以及基於股權的部分，而今天你只將股權部分出售給其他人。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

I would say the more volume we're generating top of funnel, the more there is as long as, assuming a steady credit box, the more there is available at the bottom of the funnel. So as we move into the latter part of the year, we would expect that opportunity to improve.

我想說的是，我們在漏斗頂部產生的量越多，只要假設信用箱穩定，漏斗底部的可用量就越多。因此，隨著進入今年下半年，我們預計這個機會將會改善。

Got it. And then, last question for me, I believe you guys talked about getting some of these structured securities rated and I want to make sure I understand that correctly. This would be the senior tranche would get a rating. And so you could essentially sell both buckets, the senior supported tranche a as well as the more equity based tranche where today you're only selling the equity tranche to someone else. Is that the right way to think about it?

知道了。然後，對我來說最後一個問題，我相信你們討論過對一些結構化證券進行評級，我想確保我理解正確。這將是獲得評級的高級部分。因此，您基本上可以同時出售這兩個部分，即優先支援的部分以及基於股權的部分，而今天您只將股權部分出售給其他人。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

That's, that's correct. Yes, the senior security, the senior tranche, it can be sold now, but getting a rating on it gets you a tighter spread, opens the pool of buyers, such as insurance, as we said on the call. So it's a more economically attractive way to do the same transaction. And it's not a small fee to have gotten, or to almost be on the verge of getting this rating from a major. So we're pretty excited about it, and it opens up some different avenues and potentially better pricing for structured certificates going forward.

是的，沒錯。是的，高級證券，高級部分，現在可以出售，但獲得評級可以獲得更小的利差，打開買家池，例如保險公司，就像我們在電話會議上說的那樣。因此，這是一種進行相同交易的更具經濟吸引力的方式。對於獲得或即將獲得專業機構的這項評級而言，這筆費用可不是小數目。因此，我們對此感到非常興奮，它為未來結構化證書開闢了一些不同的途徑，並可能帶來更好的定價。

Yeah, it feels like I might be getting ahead of myself that, there is a lot more funding available to you, a lot more optionality that may not be fully appreciated by the market.

是的，感覺我可能有些想當然了，你可以獲得更多的資金，還有更多的可選性，但市場可能還沒有完全意識到。

I think the funding markets are very active right now. We talked a lot about the banks coming back because that is something we have all been very focused on. But I would say if you just look at private credit, asset managers, insurance who sometimes comes through private credit, all very active. There is a lot of liquidity in the market looking for a home. So we're excited about how that space will perform in 2025.

我認為現在融資市場非常活躍。我們討論了很多有關銀行復甦的話題，因為這是我們一直非常關注的事情。但我想說，如果你只看私人信貸，資產管理者、有時透過私人信貸進行的保險公司都非常活躍。市場上有大量流動性資產在尋求歸宿。因此，我們對該領域在 2025 年的表現感到非常興奮。

Again, that, Reggie, that is informing, trying to optimize to get the best possible price, but that's also informing our strategy as we think about how we go forward, right? The ability to sell the aid and let those spreads get tighter, as well as the opportunity for us to build the HFS portfolio. If we're selling it in slugs of $400 million, we need to have that available to these potential buyers.

再說一次，雷吉，那是在告知，試圖優化以獲得盡可能好的價格，但這也是在我們思考如何前進時告知我們的策略，對吧？出售援助並讓利差縮小的能力，以及我們建立 HFS 投資組合的機會。如果我們以 4 億美元的價格出售，我們需要將這些錢提供給這些潛在買家。

Yeah, and I guess you guys made the point that 2.3 for 4Q ‘25 is kind of your minimum. It could very well be stronger than that if some things fall in line.

是的，我想你們已經指出 2025 年第四季的 2.3 是最低標準。如果某些事情順利的話，它可能會比這更強大。

Yeah, I'd say we are very confident in that number. And as we go through the course of the year and see how the competitive environment plays out and how our execution is rolling through, obviously we can give an update, but we're confident in that number. And again, we're confident in that number as being on the way to something larger than that.

是的，我想說我們對這個數字非常有信心。隨著我們回顧這一年，了解競爭環境如何發展，以及我們的執行情況如何，我們顯然可以提供更新信息，但我們對這個數字充滿信心。我們再次堅信，這數字將會進一步擴大。

Sounds good. Congrats guys.

聽起來不錯。恭喜你們。

Okay. Thanks Regi.

好的。謝謝 Regi。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Artem Nalivayko for some questions submitted via email.

現在，我想將電話轉給 Artem Nalivayko，以回答透過電子郵件提交的一些問題。

All right. Thank you, Cole. So, Scott and Drew, we have a few questions here that were submitted via email. The first question is so the LendingClub name was appropriate when the company was primarily a peer to peer lending platform. This is no longer the case as your full fledged Neobank has management given any consideration to changing the name of the company to something more descriptive.

好的。謝謝你，科爾。因此，斯科特和德魯，我們這裡有幾個透過電子郵件提交的問題。第一個問題是，當該公司主要是一個點對點借貸平台時，LendingClub 這個名字是否合適。現在情況不再如此，因為您成熟的 Neobank 管理層已經考慮將公司名稱更改為更具描述性的名稱。

Love this question. It's a great question and a great observation. So obviously when all we were doing was lending and that lending was initially powered by retail investors, the name really worked. It does not reflect the scope of our ambition or even frankly our evolving product mix. So it is very top of mind for management.

喜歡這個問題。這是一個很好的問題，也是一個很好的觀察。因此顯然，當我們所做的只是藉貸，而藉貸最初是由散戶投資者推動的時，這個名字確實很管用。它並不反映我們的抱負範圍，甚至坦率地說也不反映我們不斷發展的產品組合。因此，這是管理階層最關心的問題。

We actually do have in our budget this year to be doing some work and research on what's the current perception of the brand and how might a rebranding influence that consumer perception. So, no decisions made yet, but it is very top of mind. If we think about the year ahead as we get DebtIQ into the market, we do anticipate having a checking experience specifically for our borrowers that we'll be marketing as we exit the year next year. The name is limiting in its current form, so it's definitely top of mind for us.

事實上，我們今年的預算中確實有一些工作和研究，用於了解品牌當前的認知度以及品牌重塑將如何影響消費者的認知度。所以，還沒有做出決定，但這是最重要的。如果我們考慮未來一年將 DebtIQ 推向市場的情況，我們確實期待為我們的借款人提供專門的支票體驗，我們將在明年年底進行行銷。這個名字在目前的形式下是有限制的，所以它絕對是我們最先考慮的。

All right. Great. Thanks Scott. So here's the second question. Have you considered acquiring any entities to grow your 5 million member base further?

好的。偉大的。謝謝斯科特。這是第二個問題。您是否考慮過收購任何實體來進一步擴大您的 500 萬會員基礎？

I guess I'll start. Maybe, Drew, you can finish this. The rate environment has certainly rippled through FinTech broadly and definitely through LendTech within FinTech. So there are numerous opportunities available. And we are absolutely open to enhancing our capabilities, accelerating our roadmap. The Tally acquisition we announced last quarter is an example of that. But we will remain pretty disciplined on the hurdles that that needs to clear. Tally is an example. We were building that capability ourselves. So our ability to acquire it at a fraction of the cost that it was going to cost us to build was a pretty easy decision. I don't know if Drew, anything you'd add there?

我想我應該開始了。也許，德魯，你可以完成它。利率環境無疑對金融科技產生了廣泛影響，並且肯定會透過金融科技中的貸款科技產生影響。因此，存在著無數的機會。我們絕對願意增強我們的能力，加速我們的發展路線圖。我們在上個季度宣布的收購Tally就是一個例子。但我們仍將嚴格遵守需要清除的障礙。Tally 就是一個例子。我們正在自己建構這種能力。因此，我們能夠以建造成本的一小部分來獲得它，這是一個非常容易的決定。我不知道德魯，你還有什麼要補充嗎？

I would add just that, as we're looking at it, doing any acquisitions, we're obviously very conscious of using our shareholders' capital wisely and appropriately and making sure if we ever do any type of M&A, that we're generating an appropriate return for shareholders while we're doing that. And obviously thus far, we've been extremely disciplined on that dimension.

我想補充的是，當我們考慮進行任何收購時，我們顯然非常清楚要明智和適當地使用股東資本，並確保如果我們進行任何類型的併購，我們都在產生我們在這樣做的同時，也為股東帶來了適當的回報。顯然，到目前為止，我們在這方面一直非常嚴謹。

Okay. Thank you both. I think that's all the time we have. So with that, we'll wrap up our fourth quarter earnings conference call. Thank you for joining us today. And if you have any questions, please email us at Ir@LendingClub.com.

好的。謝謝你們兩位。我想這就是我們所擁有的全部時間了。至此，我們將結束第四季財報電話會議。感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有任何疑問，請發送電子郵件至 Ir@LendingClub.com。