LendingClub Corp (LC) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to the LendingClub Q4 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的到來，歡迎參加 LendingClub 2025 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

I will now hand the conference over to Artem Nalivayko, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係主管阿爾喬姆·納利瓦伊科。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon. Welcome to LendingClub's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. Joining me today to talk about our results are Scott Sanborn, CEO; and Drew LaBenne, CFO. You can find the presentation accompanying our earnings release on the Investor Relations section of our website.

謝謝，下午好。歡迎參加 LendingClub 2025 年第四季及全年業績電話會議。今天和我一起討論我們業績的有執行長 Scott Sanborn 和財務長 Drew LaBenne。您可以在我們網站的投資者關係版塊找到隨附的獲利報告簡報。

On the call, in addition to questions from analysts, we will also be answering some of the questions that were submitted for consideration via e-mail or through the Safe Technologies platform. Our remarks today will include forward-looking statements, including with respect to our competitive advantages, demand for our loans and marketplace products and future business and financial performance.

在電話會議上，除了回答分析師提出的問題外，我們還將回答一些透過電子郵件或 Safe Technologies 平台提交的問題。我們今天的演講將包含前瞻性陳述，包括關於我們的競爭優勢、對我們貸款和市場產品的需求以及未來業務和財務表現的陳述。

Our actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause these results to differ materially are described in today's press release and earnings presentation. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on current expectations and assumptions, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events.

我們的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性聲明中所設想的結果有重大差異。可能導致這些結果與實際結果有重大差異的因素已在今天的新聞稿和收益報告中進行了描述。我們在本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於目前的預期和假設，我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些陳述的義務。

Our remarks also include non-GAAP measures relating to our performance, including tangible book value per common share, pre-provision net revenue and return on tangible common equity. You can find more information on our use of non-GAAP measures and a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in today's earnings release and presentation. Finally, please note all financial comparisons in today's prepared remarks are to the prior year period unless otherwise noted.

我們的評論還包括與公司績效相關的非GAAP指標，包括每股普通股有形帳面價值、撥備前淨收入和有形普通股權益回報率。您可以在今天的收益發布和簡報中找到更多關於我們使用非GAAP指標的資訊以及與最直接可比較的GAAP指標的調節表。最後，請注意，除非另有說明，今天準備好的發言稿中的所有財務比較均與去年同期相比。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

現在我想把電話交給史考特。

All right. Thank you, Artem. Welcome, everyone. We had a strong close to what was one of the best years in LendingClub's history. Our results are validating our strategy and demonstrating our commitment to deliver a combination of growth profitability and shareholder returns.

好的。謝謝你，阿爾喬姆。歡迎各位。我們為 LendingClub 歷史上最好的一年之一畫上了圓滿的句號。我們的業績驗證了我們的策略，並證明了我們致力於實現成長、獲利和股東回報的決心。

In the quarter, we grew originations 40% year-on-year to $2.6 billion, with all product lines contributing to the growth. We also more than tripled to return on tangible common equity to almost 12%. For the full year, we grew originations by 33% to nearly $10 billion and more than doubled earnings per share. And we are looking forward to building on our success.

本季度，我們的貸款發放額年增 40%，達到 26 億美元，所有產品線都為成長做出了貢獻。我們的有形普通股股東權益報酬率也成長了兩倍多，接近 12%。全年來看，我們的貸款發放量成長了 33%，達到近 100 億美元，每股盈餘翻了一番多。我們期待在現有成功的基礎上再創佳績。

Our substantial originations growth was driven by continued product innovation and marketing expansion, while also supported by improved marketplace pricing and sustained credit outperformance. Our discipline, combined with our advanced underwriting capabilities, delivered 40% to 50% better credit performance versus our competitive set, and we're seeing stable performance and consistency in our borrowers' behavior.

我們業務的大幅成長得益於持續的產品創新和市場拓展，同時也得益於市場定價的改善和信用績效的持續優異。我們的嚴謹作風，加上我們先進的核保能力，使我們的信貸表現比競爭對手提高了 40% 到 50%，而且我們看到借款人的行為表現穩定且一致。

Strong credit performance continues to support low investor demand, with marketplace revenue increasing 36% year-on-year, driven by higher marketplace volumes and loan sales pricing improving back towards our historical range. We introduced a rated structured certificate product in 2025 designed to meet the needs of insurance capital. Insurance investors have a cost of funds and a risk appetite similar to banks. And so growth in this segment should further support the marketplace.

強勁的信貸表現持續支撐著低迷的投資者需求，市場收入年增 36%，這主要得益於市場交易量的增加以及貸款銷售價格回升至歷史水準。我們於 2025 年推出了評級結構化憑證產品，旨在滿足保險資本的需求。保險投資者的資金成本和風險承受能力與銀行類似。因此，該領域的成長應該會進一步支撐市場。

In Q4, we initiated our first direct forward flow agreement with a top US insurance company, which is a nice addition to the previously announced agreements with BlackRock and Blue Owl. Investors remain selective about who they choose as partners. Our depth of credit data, performance history and stability as a bank positions LendingClub as a counterparty of choice.

第四季度，我們與一家美國頂級保險公司啟動了首個直接遠期合約，這是對先前宣布的與貝萊德和藍貓頭鷹的合約的良好補充。投資者在選擇合作夥伴時仍然非常謹慎。LendingClub 擁有深厚的信貸數據、良好的業績記錄和穩定的銀行運營，使其成為理想的交易對手方。

Turning to our bank. Our balance sheet is continuing to grow with our loan portfolio driving net interest income up 14% year-over-year. Our funding is supported by our award-winning deposit products that deliver real value to customers, while also driving ongoing engagement with LendingClub, supporting efficient revenue growth over the long term. LevelUp Savings, which rewards good savings behavior is growing by double digits and driving 20% to 30% more log-ins per month than our legacy savings product.

求助於我們的銀行。我們的資產負債表持續成長，貸款組合推動淨利息收入年增 14%。我們的資金來源包括屢獲殊榮的存款產品，這些產品為客戶帶來真正的價值，同時也推動了與 LendingClub 的持續互動，從而支持長期高效的收入成長。LevelUp Savings 獎勵良好的儲蓄行為，其成長率達到兩位數，每月登入量比我們傳統的儲蓄產品高出 20% 到 30%。

Personal loan borrowers account for over 15% of new accounts and borrowers who have paid off their loans are using the product to build a financial cushion, accumulating average balances of over $15,000. Our more recently launched LevelUp Checking is also growing by double digits, with 60% of new accounts coming from personal loan borrowers, 84% of whom say they are now more likely to consider a LendingClub loan in the future. This virtuous cycle is exactly how our engagement model is designed to work.

個人貸款借款人佔新帳戶的 15% 以上，而已經還清貸款的借款人正在使用該產品來建立財務緩衝，平均金額超過 15,000 美元。我們最近推出的 LevelUp Checking 帳戶也實現了兩位數的成長，其中 60% 的新帳戶來自個人貸款借款人，84% 的借款人表示，他們現在更有可能在未來考慮 LendingClub 貸款。這種良性循環正是我們合作模式的設計初衷。

Importantly, we entered 2026 in a great position with multiple competitive strengths. First is our unmatched underwriting advantage enabled by proprietary models and informed by over 150 billion cells of data. Second, are our products that attract members for life by delivering instant meaningful value. Third, our experiences that keep members coming back. Fourth, is our agile scalable technology foundation, which is engineered for innovation.

重要的是，我們以多項競爭優勢進入了 2026 年，處於非常有利的地位。首先，我們擁有無可比擬的承保優勢，這得益於我們專有的模型，並基於超過 1500 億個資料單元。其次，我們的產品能夠透過提供即時的、有意義的價值來吸引終身會員。第三，我們的體驗讓會員不斷回頭。第四，是我們敏捷可擴展的技術基礎，它是為創新而設計的。

And fifth, is our digital marketplace bank business model that combines the speed of a fintech and the resiliency of a bank. The best of both worlds.

第五，我們的數位市場銀行商業模式結合了金融科技公司的速度和銀行的韌性。兩全其美。

These competitive strengths are driving success in our core personal loan debt consolidation use case and have applications far beyond opening additional vectors for growth. Our significant advantages in funding reliability, underwriting and user experience are allowing us to win over the competition and expand our major purchase finance business.

這些競爭優勢正在推動我們在核心個人貸款債務整合用例中取得成功，並且其應用範圍遠遠超出開闢其他成長途徑。我們在資金可靠性、核保和用戶體驗方面擁有顯著優勢，這使我們能夠戰勝競爭對手，並擴大我們的大宗採購融資業務。

Building on this momentum, last quarter, we shared our planned entry into the $0.5 trillion home improvement financing market, an industry that aligns well with our capabilities. With our acquisition of foundational technology, hiring of leadership in key talent and our first distribution partnership signed, we are well positioned for growth over the medium term. We are currently integrating the acquired code base and remain on track to launch the partnership midyear. Our announced entry has also generated substantial inbound interest from additional partners presenting potential opportunities to strengthen our trajectory.

憑藉這一勢頭，上個季度，我們宣布計劃進軍規模達 0.5 兆美元的家庭裝修融資市場，該行業與我們的能力非常契合。隨著我們收購了基礎技術、聘請了關鍵人才領導層以及簽署了首個分銷合作夥伴關係，我們已為中期內的成長做好了充分準備。我們目前正在整合收購的程式碼庫，並將繼續按計畫在年中啟動合作。我們宣布的入局計畫也引起了其他合作夥伴的濃厚興趣，這為我們加強發展軌跡提供了潛在機會。

We're excited about the year ahead and expect our marketing investments to continue scaling, credit performance to remain best-in-class and operating discipline and AI-driven efficiencies to help expand margins. We're also excited to launch our new brand later in the year to better reflect the scale of our ambition.

我們對未來一年充滿期待，並期望行銷投資繼續擴大規模，信貸表現保持一流水平，營運紀律和人工智慧驅動的效率將有助於擴大利潤率。我們也很高興能在今年稍後推出我們的新品牌，以更好地體現我們宏大的雄心壯志。

Before I turn it over to Drew, I want to take a moment to thank Hans Morris, who will be stepping down from our Board in March after 13 years of extraordinary contributions. Hans has been instrumental to me and to LendingClub from early investor to long-serving Board Chair. and its impact on the company is difficult to overstate. I am deeply grateful for his leadership and support. We are very fortunate that Tim Mayopoulos, who's been a high-impact member of the LendingClub Board for nearly a decade and who brings extensive experience in banking and fintech will be assuming the role of Chairman.

在將發言權交給德魯之前，我想藉此機會感謝漢斯·莫里斯，他將在3月份卸任董事會職務，此前他為董事會做出了13年的卓越貢獻。從早期投資者到長期擔任董事會主席，漢斯對我以及 LendingClub 都起到了至關重要的作用，他對公司的影響怎麼強調都不為過。我由衷感謝他的領導和支持。我們非常榮幸地宣布，蒂姆·馬約普洛斯 (Tim Mayopoulos) 將擔任 LendingClub 董事會主席一職。蒂姆·馬約普洛斯在 LendingClub 董事會中擔任重要成員近十年，在銀行業和金融科技領域擁有豐富的經驗。

With that, Drew, I'll turn it over to you.

德魯，那我就把麥克風交給你了。

Thanks, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. Scott already covered the high-level results that made 2025 a fantastic year. So let's get into the details of our fourth quarter.

謝謝你，斯科特，大家下午好。斯科特已經介紹了使 2025 年成為輝煌一年的重大成果。那麼，讓我們詳細了解一下第四季度的情況。

Turning to Page 10 of our earnings presentation. Loan originations grew by 40% to $2.6 billion. Fireware demand remains strong as the value we are providing continues to be compelling. Loan investor demand also remained strong as Marketplace loan sales prices continued to increase in the quarter. Our credit performance sets us apart from our competitive set and is one of the reasons we have been able to sell these loans without any need to provide credit enhancements.

請翻到我們獲利報告的第10頁。貸款發放金額成長了40%，達到26億美元。由於我們提供的價值持續具有吸引力，因此對消防器材的需求仍然強勁。隨著市場貸款銷售價格在本季持續上漲，貸款投資者的需求也依然強勁。我們的信貸表現使我們從競爭對手中脫穎而出，這也是我們能夠在無需提供任何信貸增級措施的情況下出售這些貸款的原因之一。

Leveraging one of the benefits of being a bank, we grew our held-for-sale extended seasoning portfolio to $1.8 billion consistent with our strategy to expand our balance sheet, while maintaining an inventory of seasoned loans for our marketplace buyers. We also retained nearly $500 million of loans in our held-for-investment portfolio.

利用作為銀行的優勢之一，我們將待售的長期穩定貸款組合擴大到 18 億美元，這符合我們擴大資產負債表的策略，同時為我們的市場買家保持一定數量的成熟貸款。我們在持有待投資組合中還保留了近 5 億美元的貸款。

Now let's turn to the two components of revenue on Page 11. Noninterest income grew 38% to $103 million benefiting from higher marketplace sales volumes, improved loan sales prices and continued strong credit performance. Net interest income increased 14% to $163 million, another all-time high, supported by a larger portfolio of interest-earning assets and continued funding cost optimization.

現在讓我們來看看第 11 頁上的收入的兩個組成部分。受益於更高的市場銷售額、更高的貸款銷售價格和持續強勁的信貸表現，非利息收入成長了 38%，達到 1.03 億美元。淨利息收入成長 14% 至 1.63 億美元，再創新高，這得益於生息資產組合的擴大和持續的融資成本優化。

Turning now to Page 12. Our net interest margin came in at 6% and up 56 basis points over the prior year. I'll note, we retain higher cash balances to enable accelerated growth in 2026, which resulted in a sequential decline in net interest margin. With cash balances have been flat, net interest margin would have been 17 basis points higher and nearly flat to the prior quarter. We expect the deployment of this liquidity to be supportive of net interest margin as we grow the loan portfolio in line with what we shared at Investor Day.

現在翻到第12頁。我們的淨利差為 6%，較上年同期成長 56 個基點。需要指出的是，我們保留了較高的現金餘額，以便在 2026 年實現加速成長，這導致淨利差環比下降。由於現金餘額保持不變，淨利差將比上一季高出 17 個基點，與上一季基本持平。我們預計，隨著我們按照投資者日上公佈的內容擴大貸款組合，這筆流動性的部署將有助於提高淨利差。

On balance sheet funding, we ended the quarter at $9.8 billion in deposits, which was an increase of 8% compared to the prior year and we continue to see healthy deposit trends across our product offerings.

在資產負債表融資方面，本季末存款額為 98 億美元，比去年同期成長 8%，我們繼續看到我們所有產品組合的存款趨勢保持健康。

Turning to expenses on Page 13. Noninterest expense was $169 million, up 19% year-over-year. The majority of the sequential and year-over-year rise was due to planned higher marketing spend as we continue to invest in paid channels to unlock future growth.

請參閱第 13 頁的費用部分。非利息支出為 1.69 億美元，年增 19%。環比和同比的大部分成長是由於我們計劃增加行銷支出，因為我們將繼續投資付費管道以釋放未來的成長潛力。

Now let's move on to credit where performance remains excellent. We continue to outperform the industry with delinquency and charge-off metrics well below our competitive set. Provision for credit losses was $47 million, reflecting disciplined underwriting and stable consumer credit performance. I'd note this quarter, a higher percentage of our held for investment loans were from our major purchase finance business, which is a longer duration asset and therefore, carries a higher day 1 provision.

現在我們來看看信貸，這方面的表現依然非常出色。我們的拖欠率和壞帳率指標遠低於競爭對手，持續優於產業平均。信貸損失準備金為 4700 萬美元，反映了嚴格的承保和穩定的消費信貸表現。我想指出的是，本季我們持有的投資貸款中，來自我們主要採購融資業務的比例更高，這是一項期限較長的資產，因此，第一天的撥備也更高。

In terms of net charge-off ratio, we experienced strong performance across all our vintages, and we were down 80 basis points over the prior year. As we discussed on the last call, we saw the expected sequential increase as more recent vintages mature.

就淨沖銷率而言，我們所有年份的債券都表現強勁，比前一年下降了 80 個基點。正如我們在上次電話會議中討論的那樣，隨著更多新年份葡萄酒的成熟，我們看到了預期的連續增長。

On Page 14, our expectation for lifetime losses on our held for investment portfolio under CECL are also stable to improving across all annual vintages, including 2025, which contains a higher level of qualitative reserves. Going forward, given the stability of these metrics, and are moved to fair value option for all new loan originations, we are no longer going to be updating this slide on a quarterly basis.

在第 14 頁，我們對根據 CECL 計算的持有投資組合的終身損失的預期在所有年度（包括 2025 年）也保持穩定或有所改善，因為 2025 年的定性儲備水平更高。展望未來，鑑於這些指標的穩定性，並且所有新貸款發放均採用公允價值選擇權，我們將不再按季度更新此投影片。

Turning to the balance sheet. Total assets grew to $11.6 billion up 9% year-over-year. Our balance sheet remains a competitive strength, allowing us to generate recurring revenue through retained loans, while maintaining the flexibility to scale up marketplace volume as loan investor demand grows. We ended the quarter well capitalized with strong liquidity and positioned to fund future growth.

接下來看一下資產負債表。總資產成長至 116 億美元，年增 9%。我們的資產負債表仍然是我們的競爭優勢，使我們能夠透過留存貸款產生經常性收入，同時保持靈活性，隨著貸款投資者需求的成長擴大市場規模。本季末，我們資金充足，流動性強，為未來的成長做好了資金準備。

I'd like to provide a brief update on the $100 million share repurchase and acquisition program we announced in November. In Q4, we deployed approximately $12 million at an average share price of $17.65 and expect to continue to deploy additional excess capital through the program to support our shareholders.

我想簡要介紹一下我們在 11 月宣布的 1 億美元股票回購和收購計劃的最新進展。第四季度，我們以平均每股 17.65 美元的價格投入了約 1,200 萬美元，並預計將繼續透過該計劃投入額外的超額資本來支持我們的股東。

Moving to Page 15. Net income before taxes of $50 million more than quadrupled compared to a year ago. Taxes for the quarter were $8.5 million, reflecting an effective tax rate of 16.9% and included a nonrecurring benefit from research and development tax credits. There were also some beneficial changes to California and Massachusetts Tax Law in the quarter. As a result, we expect a normalized effective tax rate of approximately 24% going forward, with some potential for variability due to the valuation of stock grants and other factors.

轉到第15頁。稅前淨收入為 5,000 萬美元，比上年同期成長超過四倍。本季稅款為 850 萬美元，實際稅率為 16.9%，其中包括研發稅收抵免帶來的非經常性收益。本季加州和麻州的稅法也出現了一些有利的變化。因此，我們預計未來正常化有效稅率約為 24%，但由於股票授予的估值和其他因素，可能會出現一些波動。

All of this translated to diluted earnings per share of $0.35 and tangible book value per share of $12.30. Our ROTCE of 11.9% came in above the high end of our guidance range. For the full year, we earned $136 million with diluted earnings per share of $1.16 and ROTCE of 10.2%.

所有這些轉化為每股攤薄收益0.35美元和每股有形帳面價值12.30美元。我們的ROTCE為11.9%，高於我們預期範圍的上限。全年獲利 1.36 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 1.16 美元，ROTCE 為 10.2%。

Now let's turn to our outlook. Looking ahead, we remain encouraged by the underlying fundamentals of our business and our guidance assumes a healthy economy with stable macroeconomic conditions throughout the year. Before I get into the guide, I'd like to spend a few minutes on our move to fair value option. As we discussed at Investor Day, this change is about simplifying our financials by better aligning the timing of revenue recognition and losses, and creating a consistent accounting framework across our marketplace and bank businesses.

現在讓我們來看看前景。展望未來，我們對公司業務的基本面依然充滿信心，我們的業績指引基於全年經濟健康發展和宏觀經濟環境穩定的假設。在正式開始講解之前，我想花幾分鐘時間談談我們轉向公允價值的選擇。正如我們在投資者日上所討論的那樣，這項變更旨在透過更好地協調收入確認和損失確認的時間，簡化我們的財務狀況，並在我們的市場和銀行業務中創建一個一致的會計框架。

As you can see on Page 18, over time, we expect this to result in a higher rate of return on invested capital by removing the front-loaded CECL impact we currently experience as we grow held for investment loans. We recognize that many of you have questions around how this change flows through the financials. So we've added a new section to this earnings presentation to walk through the mechanics in detail. This includes how fair value is established debt origination, how revenue and credit flow through the P&L after day 1, and how fair value adjustments will show up in noninterest income.

如您在第 18 頁所見，隨著時間的推移，我們預計這將透過消除我們目前在持有投資貸款成長過程中所經歷的前期 CECL 影響，帶來更高的投資資本回報率。我們了解到，許多人對這項變化如何體現在財務方面有疑問。因此，我們在本次收益報告中新增了一個章節，詳細講解相關機制。這包括如何確定債務發放的公允價值，收入和信貸在第一天之後如何流經損益表，以及公允價值調整將如何在非利息收入中體現。

To make this tangible, Page 21 provides an illustrative single vintage example showing both day 1 and day 2 economics. And Page 22 shows the select financial measures of our current fair value portfolio over the last 2 quarters. As onetime support to help with first quarter modeling, we are also providing estimates for both fair value adjustments and credit provisioning.

為了使這一點更具體，第 21 頁提供了一個單一年份的示例性例子，展示了第一天和第二天的經濟狀況。第 22 頁顯示了我們目前公允價值投資組合在過去兩個季度的部分財務指標。作為一次性支持，以幫助進行第一季建模，我們還提供了公允價值調整和信貸撥備的估計值。

We expect total fair value adjustments in the first quarter to be roughly double fourth quarter 2025 levels due to 3 factors: First, there is more volume receiving a day 1 fair value adjustment as we are transitioning 100% of all new held-for-investment originations to fair value option. Second, loans from the major purchase finance business have a longer duration and a higher discount rate, which will mean a higher day 1 fair value adjustment.

我們預計第一季的總公允價值調整額將約為 2025 年第四季水準的兩倍，原因有三：首先，由於我們將所有新持有的投資性貸款全部過渡到公允價值選項，因此第一天進行公允價值調整的貸款量更大。其次，來自大宗採購融資業務的貸款期限較長，折現率較高，這意味著第一天的公允價值調整幅度會更大。

Third, day 2 fair value adjustments will also be larger due to a higher average balance of loans carried under fair value during the quarter. Separately, moving to fair value option means there will be no day 1 provision for loan losses on new originations. We will still have CECL expense from the remaining legacy portfolio, which we currently estimate at approximately $10 million for the quarter, subject to quarterly variability.

第三，由於本季以公允價值計量的貸款平均餘額較高，因此隔天的公允價值調整幅度也會更大。另外，採用公允價值選擇權意味著新發放貸款的第一天將不會計提貸款損失準備金。我們仍將面臨剩餘遺留資產組合的 CECL 支出，目前估計本季約為 1,000 萬美元，但會根據季度情況有所波動。

Further, we will no longer defer loan origination fee revenue nor marketing expense for held for investment loans, which means both line items should increase from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, independent of any changes in origination volume. For Q1 2026, we expect to deliver loan originations of $2.55 billion to $2.65 billion representing 28% to 33% year-over-year growth, additional investments in marketing to fuel 2026 growth.

此外，我們將不再遞延投資貸款的貸款發放費收入和行銷費用，這意味著從 2025 年第四季到 2026 年第一季度，這兩個項目都應該增加，而與貸款發放量的任何變化無關。預計 2026 年第一季貸款發放將達到 25.5 億美元至 26.5 億美元，年增 28% 至 33%，並加大行銷投入以推動 2026 年的成長。

For the full year 2026, we expect originations of $11.6 billion to $12.6 billion, up 21% to 31% year-over-year. On earnings for Q1 2026, we expect to deliver diluted earnings per share of $0.34 to $0.39, a 240% to 290% increase year-over-year. For the full year we expect to deliver $1.65 to $1.80 earnings per share. Consistent with the 13% to 15% near-term ROTCE target we shared at Investor Day, and up 42% to 55% year-over-year.

預計 2026 年全年貸款發放將達到 116 億美元至 126 億美元，年增 21% 至 31%。對於 2026 年第一季的收益，我們預計稀釋後每股收益為 0.34 美元至 0.39 美元，年增 240% 至 290%。我們預計全年每股收益為 1.65 美元至 1.80 美元。與我們在投資者日上分享的近期 ROTCE 目標 13% 至 15% 一致，年增 42% 至 55%。

With that, we'll open it up for Q&A.

接下來，我們將進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Tim Switzer, KBW.

提姆‧斯威策，KBW。

So the first one I have is on the expense trajectory here. There is a little bit of an increase across several line items this quarter. The comp line was flattish, but then marketing was up quite a bit. Equipment went higher. Other expenses seemed a little bit elevated.

所以我首先要討論的是這裡的支出軌跡。本季多個項目均略有成長。同店銷售額基本持平，但行銷支出卻大幅成長。設備升得更高了。其他開支似乎略高。

Is this kind of just some weird one-offs or is this indicative of a little bit higher investment costs you guys are putting in the company right now as you look to ramp up?

這只是個別奇怪的個案，還是表示你們為了擴大規模，目前正在對公司進行更高的投資？

Yes. So I'd say, first of all, I think marketing spend was the obvious one that increased quarter-over-quarter. That was, I think, the vast majority of the increase. And as we've signaled last quarter and Investor Day, we're continuing to invest in ramping our marketing channels, improving our capabilities, improving our modeling. And really, a lot of this investment is to help 2026 performance. And so you can probably expect us to continue more of that as we go forward into Q1 as well.

是的。所以，首先，我認為行銷支出是明顯較上季成長的一項。我認為，這就是成長的絕大部分。正如我們在上個季度和投資者日上所表明的那樣，我們將繼續投資擴大行銷管道、提高能力、改進模型。實際上，這筆投資很大程度上是為了幫助實現 2026 年的業績目標。因此，您可以預期，我們在第一季也會繼續採取更多此類措施。

The other expenses, I'd say, were largely noise in the quarter, for the most part, even having an Investor Day cost a little bit of money. So you got to factor that in. But in all seriousness, I think as we go into Q1, other investments, we'll expect to make would be ramping up our investment in people for the growth in the home improvement business. And then as we're looking to do the rebrand in the first half of 2026, there will be some expenses related to that as well. And all of that is included in the guide.

我認為其他費用在很大程度上都是本季的干擾因素，就連舉辦投資者日也花了一些錢。所以你必須把這一點考慮進去。但說真的，我認為進入第一季後，我們預計會加大對人才的投資，以促進家居裝飾業務的成長。此外，由於我們計劃在 2026 年上半年進行品牌重塑，因此也會產生一些相關費用。所有這些內容都包含在指南中。

Let's say, investment, just to be clear, investment in the first half of '26 rolled down the back half of '26.

假設投資，為了說清楚，2026 年上半年的投資延續到了 2026 年下半年。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. So you're saying the investment cost should start to moderate into the second half of the year?

好的。所以你的意思是說，投資成本應該會在下半年開始趨於緩和？

I'd say when we're through the transition, that's right. So we're not being specific on the timing of that yet, but we're obviously starting the work now.

我認為，當我們度過過渡期之後，那就是事實。所以，我們目前還沒有具體確定時間，但顯然我們現在已經開始著手這項工作了。

Okay. And your comment on marketing, like, is the marketing required for targeted originations, is that higher than what you were maybe previously expecting? Or like what's the efficiency looking like so far?

好的。您對行銷的看法是，針對特定客戶群進行行銷所需的投入是否高於您先前預期的投入？或者說，目前的效率如何？

Now -- a reminder, if you just go back and what we talked about in Investor Day. So one, all of our product categories were growing last year, and we're expecting future growth this year. Not all of them are marketing driven in terms of their originations. So the SBA program and our purchase finance, those are driven by different dynamics as same with home improvement.

現在——提醒一下，如果你回顧一下我們在投資者日上討論的內容。首先，去年我們所有產品類別都實現了成長，我們預計今年也將繼續成長。並非所有產品的起源都是由行銷驅動的。所以，SBA計畫和我們的購屋融資，以及房屋裝修，都是由不同的因素驅動的。

But specific to PL, there's really three areas that we're pushing on for growth. One is product innovation. We talked about how top-up has successfully driven increases in take rate and higher originations. We have more ideas in the pipeline around the product innovation. There's funnel efficiency as magic, as our experience feels, there are still evolution possible to make it faster and more frictionless and that will be a growth driver. And then the third is marketing.

但具體到PL，我們主要在三個方面著力推動成長。一是產品創新。我們討論了追加貸款如何成功地推動了貸款發放率的提高和貸款發放量的增加。我們還有更多關於產品創新的想法正在醞釀中。漏斗效率就像魔法一樣，正如我們的經驗所表明的那樣，還有改進的空間，使其更快、更順暢，這將成為成長的驅動力。第三點是行銷。

And there we shared, we're still -- there are certain things that are quite robust and I'd say, close to very mature, like our partnership program. And I think we're getting there on direct mail and we're well on our way with paid search, but there are other areas that we're still quite early innings at having the right data models, the right attribution and that's paid social, display, connected TV. And I would say those are future growth vectors for us. They're one of many drivers of origination growth.

我們分享了，我們仍然——有些事情相當穩健，而且我認為，接近非常成熟，例如我們的合作計劃。我認為我們在直郵方面正在取得進展，付費搜尋方面也進展順利，但在其他一些領域，例如付費社交、展示廣告和聯網電視，我們仍然處於起步階段，需要建立正確的數據模型和歸因方法。我認為這些是我們未來的成長點。它們是推動貸款發放成長的眾多因素之一。

And I think we gave at Investor Day that over the medium term, we think there's a couple of billion dollars worth of originations to come from those added channels. What you're seeing us do now is normally for -- Tim, you've been following the business for a while. We normally don't push on new initiatives like this in Q4 and Q1. We usually wait till Q2 and Q3, because they were seasonally just a lot more forgiving and favorable. But given the momentum in the business, we're pulling those in to Q4 and Q1, which means there are going to be test programs and I would call this R&D spend.

我認為我們在投資者日上已經表明，從中長期來看，我們認為這些新增管道將帶來數十億美元的貸款發放。你現在看到的我們所做的，通常是為了——蒂姆，你關注這個行業已經有一段時間了。我們通常不會在第四季和第一季大力推進此類新措施。我們通常會等到第二季和第三季度，因為這兩個季度的季節性因素相對容易緩解，也更有利。但鑑於業務發展勢頭，我們將這些項目推遲到第四季度和第一季度，這意味著將會有一些測試項目，我將稱之為研發支出。

They're always less efficient because it's a learning agenda as opposed to a volume agenda. We're not driving much volume through it, but we are spending dollars. It'll be even less efficient when we pull them into less seasonably favorable quarters because response rates and all that are lower. But we think the trade-off is worth it because it sets us up for sustained growth later in the year and in the years beyond.

它們的效率總是較低，因為它們是以學習為導向，而不是以產量為導向。雖然我們透過這項業務實現了不大的交易量，但我們確實在花錢。如果將它們安排在季節性不太有利的季度，效率會更低，因為回應率等因素都會降低。但我們認為這種權衡是值得的，因為它為我們今年晚些時候以及未來幾年的持續成長奠定了基礎。

Okay. Got it. That was all really helpful. One last question, and then I'll jump back in the queue. At the Investor Day, your slide deck kind of indicated you're looking for a lower efficiency rate over time relative to '25, I think close to a 55% to 60% range.

好的。知道了。這些都很有幫助。最後一個問題，問完我就重新排隊。在投資者日上，你的幻燈片似乎表明，你希望隨著時間的推移，效率率相對於 2025 年有所下降，我認為接近 55% 到 60% 的區間。

But given all the 2026 kind of transition year, the accounting is changing a little bit. Is the efficiency ratio moving up in '26 and then it starts to move back down as we get past the impact of the accounting and you guys start to get better scale?

但考慮到 2026 年是過渡年，會計​​處理方式也略有變動。2026 年效率比率是否上升，然後隨著會計影響的消除和你們規模的擴大，效率比率是否開始下降？

That's -- yes, you're precisely right. So if you think about this transition from CECL to fair value early in '26 or now basically in the first quarter, there's a bit of a tailwind that's created, and we're using some of that tailwind to do these investments that we were just talking about, right, reinvesting because once that tailwind fades, we want to make sure we continue to have momentum in growth, top line and bottom line going forward.

沒錯，你說得完全正確。所以，如果你考慮到 2026 年初（或現在基本上是第一季）從 CECL 過渡到公允價值，就會發現這帶來了一些順風，而我們正在利用這股順風進行我們剛才提到的這些投資，對吧，也就是再投資，因為一旦這股順風消失，我們希望確保我們能夠繼續保持增長勢頭，實現營收和利潤的持續增長。

So we're using first part of the year to make those investments to accelerate the back half of the year. Once you get through 2026, that comparison point that impacts efficiency ratio in PPNR basically is gone and then your year-over-year comps will normalize at that point. But what's really important to note is you have these dynamics going on. But what we're getting is more pull-through by making this move, right? So even though you're having some of these impacts on revenue and expenses, what you're pulling through to the bottom line 2because of the offset and provision is higher.

因此，我們利用上半年時間進行這些投資，以加速下半年的發展。一旦過了 2026 年，影響 PPNR 效率比率的比較點基本上就消失了，屆時您的同比數據將恢復正常。但真正需要注意的是，這裡存在著這些動態變化。但我們透過這項措施獲得的是更大的推動力，對吧？因此，即使這些因素對收入和支出產生了一些影響，但由於抵銷和準備金，最終到達的利潤還是更高的。

Vincent Caintic, BTIG.

Vincent Caintic，BTIG。

Thanks for all the detail on the accounting change. So I do want to focus on that -- I understood that very helpful slide, with Slide 21. So are these key drivers sort of the discount rate, 7%. Is that sort of what we should be thinking about going forward? I think in the prepared remarks, you kind of talked a bit about the large -- the major purchase finance and other things having higher discount rates and higher duration.

感謝您提供關於會計變更的詳細資訊。所以我想重點談談這一點——我理解了第 21 張幻燈片，它非常有幫助。所以這些關鍵驅動因素是折現率，7%嗎？這是否是我們今後該考慮的方向？我認為在事先準備好的發言稿中，您稍微談到了大宗採購融資和其他一些具有更高折現率和更長期限的事項。

So as you launch new products, I'm wondering how these assumptions will evolve. And if you can give us like how we should think about the duration of these other products and the discount rates of these other products and coupons as well? That would be very helpful.

所以，隨著你們推出新產品，我想知道這些假設將如何演變。如果您能告訴我們應該如何考慮其他產品的持續時間、折扣率以及優惠券等因素，那就太好了？那將非常有幫助。

Yes. Great. I mean there's only a certain level of detail we're going to give just for competitive reasons, but it's a great question. And first thing I'd say is just -- it's right down there, but this is illustrative of one vintage coming in. So the 7.3% discount rate in this illustration, we're actually at 7.1% discount rate for the quarter. So we're a little lower than this illustration.

是的。偉大的。我的意思是，出於競爭原因，我們只能透露一定程度的細節，但這的確是一個很好的問題。首先我想說的是——它就在下面，但這可以說明一個年份的葡萄酒是如何釀造出來的。因此，圖中所示的 7.3% 的折現率，實際上本季的折現率為 7.1%。所以我們現在的海拔比圖中所示的要低一些。

But how that discount rate will move, if everything else remains equal, it will depend on the mix of loans that we're putting into fair value. And so some of the businesses like major purchase finance that have longer duration and their less developed secondary market or marketplace are going to have a higher discount rate. Not necessarily all of that is true for home improvement, where there's a very developed secondary market and marketplace, but it also is longer duration. So net-net, you'll have some offsetting effects on an asset class like that.

但是，如果其他條件保持不變，折現率將如何變動，將取決於我們納入公允價值評估的貸款組合。因此，有些業務，例如大宗採購融資，由於期限較長且其二級市場或交易市場發展程度較低，其折現率將會較高。對於家居裝修來說，這些說法未必完全正確，因為家居裝修的二手市場和交易市場非常發達，而且持續時間也更長。所以總的來說，你會對這類資產類別產生一些抵銷作用。

But over time, it's going to depend on what the mix within our held for sale portfolio looks like, but you can expect that we're probably adding more diversification of those other product types coming into the portfolio.

但隨著時間的推移，這取決於我們持有待售資產組合的組成，但您可以預期，我們可能會增加更多其他產品類型的多元化，並將這些產品納入投資組合。

That's helpful. And then I guess relatedly, now that the accounting is sort of making the market -- the held for investment loans look similar to the marketplace loans, at least from your income statement and balance sheet now, like your thoughts on the mix between what you will sell, what you will sell? what maybe you will season and then sell versus what you'd retain on the balance sheet?

那很有幫助。然後，我想，與此相關的是，現在會計處理方式讓市場——持有用於投資的貸款看起來與市場貸款類似，至少從你們現在的損益表和資產負債表來看是這樣，你們對你們將要出售的貸款和將要出售的貸款之間的組合有什麼想法？哪些食材可能會經過調味後出售，哪些食材會保留在資產負債表上？

Yes. Yes. Interesting, and I'm glad you asked because there's another point I want to make as well. So we will continue to have an inventory of held-for-sale loans. As we've said before, we found that program to be very helpful to onboard new investors and to make opportunistic sales and maybe better prices than we would otherwise get.

是的。是的。很有意思，很高興你問了這個問題，因為我還有另一點想說。因此，我們將繼續持有待售貸款的庫存。正如我們之前所說，我們發現該計劃對於吸引新投資者、抓​​住機會進行銷售以及獲得比我們通常更好的價格都非常有幫助。

There's actually one new development in CECL accounting this quarter, which could be beneficial, not for us, but for potential bank buyers. So I think one of the reasons that the bank pipeline has been slow to evolve is banks having to take that upfront CECL charge and sometimes it's difficult to get over that hump before you start building a portfolio of purchased LendingClub loans.

本季 CECL 會計準則實際上出現了一項新進展，這可能對潛在的銀行買家有利，但對我們來說可能不是。所以我認為銀行貸款管道發展緩慢的原因之一是銀行必須預先支付 CECL 費用，而有時在開始建立購買的 LendingClub 貸款組合之前，很難克服這個障礙。

Under the new CECL guidance, if you buy loan CECL more than 90 days, you no longer have that upfront impact as you would if you were originating loans or buying newly originated loans. So I'm not saying this is an immediate unlock in the bank pipeline is about to explode open. But I think net-net, it will be a positive for bank investors that are considering purchasing from us. So for the reasons I mentioned before and for that reason, we'll continue to hold a held-for-sale portfolio available for sale.

根據新的 CECL 指導原則，如果您購買的貸款 CECL 超過 90 天，您將不再像發放貸款或購買新發放的貸款那樣受到前期影響。所以我並不是說銀行的資金管道即將立即全面開放。但我認為總的來說，這對正在考慮從我們這裡購買股票的銀行投資者來說將是一個好消息。因此，基於我之前提到的原因，我們將繼續持有待售資產組合以供出售。

Yes. Do you want to talk a little bit about the other part of the question, which was now that they look the same in-period aspirations for balance sheet growth. We gave some targets at Investor Day.

是的。你想稍微談談問題的另一部分嗎？那就是，他們現在看起來對資產負債表成長有著相同的期中目標。我們在投資者日上給了一些目標。

Yes, I mean I think in terms of balance sheet growth and aspirations, nothing has changed from Investor Day regarding that. As far as our mix going forward in terms of structured certificate securities and I'll just call it whole loans, which would be held for investment loans and held for sale. We'd say that, that distribution that we're at today probably roughly holds as we go forward in terms of our forecast.

是的，我的意思是，就資產負債表成長和目標而言，我認為自投資者日以來，這方面沒有任何變化。至於我們未來在結構化證券方面的組合，我姑且稱之為整體貸款，這些貸款將用於投資貸款和出售。我們認為，就我們的預測而言，目前這種分佈在未來可能會大致保持不變。

John Hecht, Jefferies.

約翰‧赫克特，傑富瑞集團。

Just one question I have is just on the fair value adjustment. You give the discount rate. Is there some way we can take that and decipher what the kind of annualized loss rate might be, I guess, in your primary product?

我只有一個問題，是關於公允價值調整的。你給出折扣率。我們能否以某種方式推斷出貴公司主要產品的年化損失率大概是多少？

I don't know that you can exactly get to that. What we are going to do next -- starting next year, is we'll update our disclosures to include the charge off, much like we do today just for the CECL portfolio. We'll start to do that for the CECL, the runoff CECL portfolio and the held-for-sale portfolio combined. But currently, under our platform mix, we're still in that 4.5% to 5% loss rate estimate on an ANCL basis. And then as we add new products, we think they have similar profiles. But obviously, we might move around or mix that could have some minor adjustments to those numbers.

我不知道你是否能完全達到那個目的。接下來，從明年開始，我們將更新披露信息，將沖銷納入其中，就像我們今天對 CECL 投資組合所做的那樣。我們將開始對 CECL、CECL 清算組合和持有待售組合進行合併計算。但目前，根據我們的平台組合，以 ANCL 計算，我們的損失率估計仍在 4.5% 到 5% 之間。然後，隨著我們不斷推出新產品，我們認為它們具有相似的特性。但顯然，我們可能會進行一些調整或混合，這可能會對這些數字進行一些細微的調整。

Okay. But the general tenor of the credit is consistent with what you've been underwriting for the last several quarters?

好的。但該信貸的整體基調與您過去幾季承銷的信貸類型一致嗎？

Yes. No major pivots.

是的。沒有重大轉型。

Yes. If you just think about -- John, what we're doing is we're taking the capabilities, but I think we've demonstrated that we're quite good at appropriately assessing the risk pricing the risk and delivering value through the cycle from -- all the way through servicing, we're just applying it to different categories, but it is the same core skill set. So different channels have slightly different SKUs, but the overall return profile coupons and all that are pretty similar, like purchase finance as an example has a higher average FICO score, but the actual ROEs on that we expect to be similar and in line and home improvement obviously has homeowners, SKUs, heavily homeowners and slightly higher coupon.

是的。約翰，你想想，我們正在做的就是利用這些能力，但我認為我們已經證明，我們非常擅長適當地評估風險、對風險進行定價，並在整個週期內（從頭到尾到售後服務）提供價值，我們只是將其應用於不同的類別，但核心技能是相同的。因此，不同的管道的 SKU 略有不同，但總體而言，退貨情況、優惠券等都非常相似。例如，購買融資的平均 FICO 評分較高，但我們預期其實際 ROE 將相似且一致。而家裝顯然面向房主，SKU 也主要面向房主，且優惠券金額略高。

Okay. And then just so I'm clear, the revenue yield on the loans is going to be more akin to the discount rate. So the net interest margin will be reflective of that lower yield, but the offset from the upfront fair value mark is bigger than that. Is that an accurate description?

好的。最後，為了確保我理解正確，貸款的收益率將更接近貼現率。因此，淨利差將反映出較低的收益率，但與預付公允價值的抵銷效果比這更大。這樣的描述準確嗎？

The coupon in the NIM in the net interest margin table will be higher than the discount rate. Where the offset will be is in those fair value adjustments downward. So what you need to do is take the component of interest income offset with the component -- the fair value adjustments from noninterest income, and that will get you the revenue yield equal to the discount rate.

淨利差表中的票息將高於貼現率。抵銷點將位於這些公允價值向下調整。所以你要做的就是將利息收入部分與非利息收入的公允價值調整部分相抵消，這樣就能得到等於折現率的收益率。

Okay. And then from that, you also subtract charge-offs in the fair value marks. Is that correct?

好的。然後，也要從公允價值標記中減去沖銷金額。是這樣嗎？

Those are included in those adjustments.

這些都包含在調整方案中。

Okay. And then final question is, it seems like a fairly good environment from the perspective of relatively stable credit. I think the macro expectations are reasonably constructive too. And then there's a lot of capital in the markets. Maybe could you guys describe your thoughts on the operating market and the competitive environment within your subset of products?

好的。最後一個問題是，從相對穩定的信貸角度來看，這似乎是一個相當不錯的環境。我認為宏觀預期也相當具有建設性。而且市場上還有大量資金。你們能否談談對你們產品細分市場營運和競爭環境的看法？

Well, I'll start with the marketplace, and Scott can cover credit dynamics and competition. The marketplace is very healthy. There is a -- as you said, there is a lot of capital out there to be deployed very active environment, where the insurance capital that we're now starting to sell loans to and having more conversations, we think it has been a great addition to our marketplace customers that we are working with now. And as I mentioned, the CECL, this change in CECL accounting, hopefully can give a little more tailwind to opening up some more banks as well.

好，我先從市場方面說起，史考特可以負責信貸動態和競爭方面的內容。市場狀況非常健康。正如你所說，市場上有大量資金可供部署，市場環境非常活躍。我們現在開始向保險資本出售貸款，並與他們進行更多對話，我們認為這對我們目前合作的市場客戶來說是一個很好的補充。正如我之前提到的，CECL，即 CECL 會計準則的這項變化，有望為更多銀行的開放帶來一些助力。

Yes. And on the competitive front, John, I'd say, I think we said this almost every call, this is a competitive market. It has always been a competitive market. Who we are competing with at any point in the cycle changes. This past quarter, we had a fairly aggressive, ambitious reasonably new entrant kind of pull out of the market similar to Marcus' arrival with much fanfare and then retraction.

是的。至於競爭方面，約翰，我想說，我們幾乎每次通話都會提到這一點，這是一個競爭激烈的市場。這是一個競爭激烈的市場。週期中每個階段我們的競爭對手都會改變。上個季度，我們經歷了一次相當激進、雄心勃勃的新進者式的市場撤退，類似於馬庫斯當初高調進軍市場，然後又迅速撤回。

So we have that, but that's offset by some of the direct fintech competition who are on balance being more aggressive given the availability of marketplace capital. So let's say no real change in our view of how that's affecting what we do. We feel very good about our ability to compete. I think we've shared multiple times, statistics, not only on the credit side, but also on our pull-through rate in our marketing and how we're able to convert the customers we want. So -- but we're just going to be very selective.

所以我們有這樣的情況，但這被一些直接的金融科技競爭對手所抵消，鑑於市場資本的可用性，這些競爭對手總體上更加積極進取。所以，假設我們對這件事如何影響我們工作的看法並沒有真正的改變。我們對自身的競爭力充滿信心。我認為我們已經多次分享了統計數據，不僅包括信貸方面的數據，還包括我們在行銷方面的轉換率，以及我們如何轉換我們想要的客戶。所以——但我們會非常謹慎地進行篩選。

And we agree. We're -- as you can see in our materials, our credit looks very stable, and that's because we're maintaining our discipline. It's not clear that we're seeing that across the full industry. So we'll be watching that.

我們同意。正如您在我們的資料中看到的，我們的信用狀況非常穩定，這是因為我們保持了自律。目前還不清楚這種情況是否在整個行業中普遍存在。所以我們會密切關注此事。

Kyle Joseph, Stephens. (Operator Instructions)

凱爾·約瑟夫，史蒂芬斯。（操作說明）

Sorry about that. Anyway, kind of piggybacking on John's question on macro, just looking at your DQ curves on Slide 9. Anything you'd say about kind of the K-shape economy and how you're thinking about 2026, we've been reading a lot about elevated tax refunds, but yes, just kind of a little bit deeper dive in terms of macro and how you're thinking about things.

抱歉。總之，算是藉用約翰關於宏觀的問題，我只是想看你投影片 9 上的 DQ 曲線。關於 K 型經濟以及您對 2026 年的看法，您有什麼想說的嗎？我們讀到了很多關於提高退稅額的報道，但是，是的，我們想更深入地探討一下宏觀經濟以及您是如何看待這些問題的。

Yes. So I think the most important thing is post the inflationary period a few years ago, we did move upmarket, upmarket in terms of income on market in terms of FICO. And as you can see there, we're seeing stable results. The customer we serve who we call the motivated middle, we think represent a lot of TAM for us, both immediately today but also over time as we evolve the use cases and credit products we serve at.

是的。所以我認為最重要的是，在幾年前的通貨膨脹時期之後，我們確實向高端市場邁進了一步，從收入和 FICO 信用評分來看，我們的市場地位都提升了。正如你所看到的，我們看到了穩定的結果。我們所服務的客戶群體，我們稱之為“積極進取的中產階級”，我們認為他們代表了我們很大的潛在市場，不僅在今天如此，而且隨著我們不斷發展應用案例和信貸產品，他們也會在未來繼續代表我們很大的潛在市場。

On tax refunds, we are expecting, right, or it is expected, it's not us that this will be a larger than usual year. that can have a positive effect on payment and a temporarily downward effect on loan demand, but all of that is factored into our guide.

關於退稅，我們預期（或預期，並非我們預測）今年的退稅額將高於往年。這可能會對還款產生積極影響，並暫時抑制貸款需求，但所有這些因素都已納入我們的指導方針中。

I got it. And then not asking you guys to speculate any more than weekend, but I think we'd be a little bit remiss if we didn't address the potential rate cap, obviously, given kind of your core product is on credit card refi, but just kind of want to get your initial thoughts and how you guys are thinking about everything that's out there.

我得到了它。我不想讓你們對週末發生的事情進行更多猜測，但考慮到你們的核心產品是信用卡再融資，如果我們不討論潛在的利率上限，那顯然就有點失職了。我們只是想了解你們的初步想法，以及你們對目前所有情況的看法。

Yes. I mean, obviously, there's not a lot of specifics on what -- how this could actually take shape, and what it could do. And I think there's, at the moment, not a lot of confidence that at least as initially articulated, anything like that would come through. Our view is there is an affordable alternative to credit cards available today, no government action required, and that's LendingClub. And we're already saving people 70 basis points off of the cards and no price control is needed.

是的。我的意思是，很顯然，目前還沒有太多關於這究竟會如何成形以及它能做什麼的具體細節。而我認為，目前大家對最初提出的方案能否最終實現並沒有太大信心。我們認為，如今有一種比信用卡更經濟實惠的替代方案，無需政府乾預，那就是 LendingClub。我們已經為用戶節省了 70 個基點的信用卡費用，而且無需價格管制。

David Scharf, Citizens Capital Markets.

David Scharf，Citizens Capital Markets。

Most have been addressed. So a couple of things I just wanted to ask if you could clarify. One, actually, just very near term. On the Q1 origination outlook, did I hear you correctly that the guide kind of factors in a larger-than-normal refund season in paydown cycle?

大部分問題都已解決。我有幾個問題想請教一下，能否請您解釋一下？實際上，只有一個，只是近期的一個。關於第一季貸款發放前景，我理解你的意思是，指南考慮到了還款週期中會出現比正常情況更大的退款期，對嗎？

Well, what I'd say is I think that's pretty difficult to factor in with any degree of specificity. But our experience has been that larger than normal refund seasons as I said, kind of flow through our business, as I indicated, which is customer payment rates are higher. So you see good DQ trends, but you can see maybe a different demand for credit temporarily. We wouldn't expect anything significant, but obviously, that will be difficult to really predict and we're not going to give intra-quarter guidance. And hard to measure the impact of that together with any other broader macro events going on. So we're very confident that we've got a lot of tools in the toolkit to deliver the outlook that we provided.

嗯，我想說的是，我認為這很難具體地考慮進去。但正如我所說，我們的經驗表明，比正常情況更大的退款季節會對我們的業務產生影響，正如我所指出的，那就是客戶的付款率會更高。所以你可以看到DQ的良好趨勢，但你也可能看到暫時的信貸需求有所不同。我們預計不會有任何重大變化，但顯然，這很難真正預測，我們也不會給出季度內業績指引。而且很難衡量這件事與其他更廣泛的宏觀事件結合起來的影響。因此，我們非常有信心，我們擁有許多工具來實現我們所描繪的前景。

Got it. Got it. Fair enough. And then just digging back to the fair value assumptions. It sounds like on the next quarter Q1 call, we'll get kind of the obviously, current period losses and charge-off rate embedded in that change in fair value line.

知道了。知道了。很公平。然後，我們再回過頭來探究公允價值假設。聽起來，在下一季（Q1）電話會議上，我們將看到很明顯的當期損失和沖銷率，這些都包含在公允價值變動項中。

Is it -- I think John may have asked this, but is it fair to assume that embedded in your earnings guidance is sort of a flattish year-over-year loss rate in that fair value mark? Or is there anything about the asset mix? There have been more -- so many references to larger purchase longer duration loans. Are there any nuances that might kind of raise the loss rate clearly due to the asset mix?

我想約翰可能問過這個問題，但是否可以合理地假設，你們的獲利預期中隱含著公允價值水準上年比虧損率較為平穩？或者，關於資產組合方面有什麼需要注意的地方嗎？還有更多——很多都提到了大額購買和長期貸款。資產組合方面是否存在某些細微差別，可能會顯著提高損失率？

No, I don't think so. I mean, I think we're obviously assuming a stable environment as we go through the year. We will have increase in duration because as our purchase finance -- the major purchase finance business is growing and doing well, and home improvement will come on. So duration will go up. But in terms of the ANCLs I'm not expecting a major shift in that.

不，我不這麼認為。我的意思是，顯然我們假設這一年將在一個穩定的環境下度過。由於我們的購置融資業務（主要購置融資業務）正在成長且發展良好，加上房屋裝修業務即將興起，因此融資期限將會延長。所以持續時間會延長。但就ANCL而言，我預計不會有重大變化。

Now I think if you look at the net charge-off rate, there's seasonality, there's vintages seasoning in there. There's a lot of portfolio mix. But in terms of the annual loss rates, we're not assuming a major change in those numbers.

現在我認為，如果你看淨沖銷率，你會發現其中有季節性因素，也存在年份因素。投資組合種類繁多。但就年度損失率而言，我們預計這些數字不會有重大變化。

Got it. And regarding the vintages, obviously, this is -- we're laying to rest the slide where you give the sort of components of provisioning and reserving for amortized cost accounting. Is there a way to translate that sort of most recent vintage macro layer, that 1%, 1.5% kind of conservative upfront provisioning. Does that translate into certain number of basis points of discount on a day 1 fair value mark going forward?

知道了。至於年份，顯然，我們正在結束關於攤銷成本會計中準備金和預留金組成部分的討論。有沒有辦法轉換那種最新的宏觀層面，那種 1%、1.5% 的保守預付準備？這是否意味著未來在第一天的公允價值基礎上會有一定數量的基點折扣？

Well, under fair value, we're not explicitly layering in qualitative reserves as we do under CECL. So it's a difference in methodology. Now if we see more stress coming through the portfolio, we may take that through the fair value marks in some manner. But we're not going to speculate on what's going to happen 2 years from now to the economy in terms of how we reserve, which I think has been personally one of the most frustrating parts of CECL accounting.

嗯，在公允價值法下，我們不像在 CECL 法下那樣明確地加入定性準備。所以這是方法論上的差異。如果我們看到投資組合面臨更大的壓力，我們可能會以某種方式透過公允價值來應對。但是，我們不會就兩年後的經濟狀況如何發展進行推測，也不會就此進行準備金的編制，我認為這一直是 CECL 會計中最令人沮喪的部分之一。

Yes. No, fair enough. I think you're the seventh company we cover that's adopted the fair value option. That's all I have.

是的。沒錯，說得有道理。我想你們是我們報道的第七家採用公允價值選擇權的公司。這就是我全部的財產了。

Giuliano Bologna, Compass Point. (Operator Instructions)

Giuliano Bologna，指南針點。（操作說明）

Congrats on another good quarter, and I appreciate all the new detail on the fair value disclosures. When I -- one thing that -- I don't know if that sell come up yet, but they wouldn't -- under fair value, there shouldn't be any more deferrals when it comes to marketing expenses. Is there a rough way to think about where your marketing expenses would be as a percentage of volume in the fourth quarter and third quarter, for example, just to get a rough sense of what your marketing cost would have translated to on a pro forma basis?

恭喜你們又一個季度業績出色，我很欣賞你們提供的有關公允價值揭露的所有新細節。當我——有一件事——我不知道那筆交易是否已經達成，但他們不會——按照公允價值計算，行銷費用方面不應該再有任何遞延。例如，有沒有一種粗略的方法，可以計算出您的行銷費用在第四季和第三季的銷售中所佔的百分比，以便大致了解您的行銷成本在預測基礎上會是多少？

Yes. I mean, I think it would have been higher, obviously. We haven't disclosed the number. I mean, I think the -- obviously, the offset to that is also higher origination fees, origination fees are no longer deferred and net-net. We're a net beneficiary of those two dynamics happening together, right? So I think if you're thinking about the marketing spend deferral, then probably got to think about the origination fee deferral as well.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，我認為實際數字會更高。我們尚未透露具體數字。我的意思是，我認為——顯然，抵消這一點的也是更高的貸款發放費，貸款發放費不再延期支付，總而言之。這兩種動態同時發生，我們無疑是淨受益者，對吧？所以我覺得，如果你在考慮推遲行銷支出，那麼可能也需要考慮延後貸款發放費用。

Got it. Yes. And I mean, obviously, the net impact is positive. So that's -- or significantly positive. When I think about the outlook for volumes for the -- or at least the guide for the year, it implies especially after 1Q that you kind of reaccelerated from a volume perspective that we'll probably be flat to up slightly in the first quarter, but then you'd see a pretty good reacceleration in volumes to hit kind of the midpoint of the origination volume guidance. Is that a good way to think of it that you should have a good step up in 2Q, 3Q?

知道了。是的。很明顯，最終結果是正面的。所以，這——或者說，是非常積極的。當我考慮今年的交易量前景時——或者至少是今年的交易量指引——這意味著，尤其是在第一季之後，從交易量的角度來看，交易量已經有所回升。我們可能會在第一季保持穩定或略有成長，但之後交易量將會出現相當不錯的回升，達到貸款發放量指引的中點。這樣理解是否可行，也就是第二季、第三季業績應該會有顯著提升？

That's correct. Yes. That's exactly right. And there's -- part of that is our normal seasonality. But obviously, we're -- we believe we're going to have more benefits beyond that from the newer business lines that we're launching and the investments in scaling marketing paying off.

沒錯。是的。完全正確。其中一部分是正常的季節性因素。但顯然，我們相信，隨著我們推出新的業務線以及在擴大行銷規模方面的投資獲得回報，我們將獲得更多好處。

That is very helpful. Yes. I appreciate all the enhanced disclosure, and I will jump back in the queue.

那很有幫助。是的。我很感謝所有更詳細的資訊披露，我會重新排隊等候。

Tim Switzer, KBW.

提姆‧斯威策，KBW。

One of the follow-up I had is just on AI, how -- I know you guys are using that quite a bit in the back office, but what areas that are a little bit more forward-facing is helping you with either growth or maybe getting a little bit better pricing or demand? I know you guys had like the cushion acquisition a few years ago, and I think you've mentioned it's helped speed up the dock verification process. as applications come through. But just wondering if you guys could update us on that.

我收到的後續問題之一就是關於人工智慧的，我知道你們在後台大量使用人工智慧，但是有哪些更面向未來的領域正在幫助你們實現成長，或獲得更好的定價或需求？我知道你們幾年前收購了緩衝墊，而且我想你們也提到過，這有助於加快碼頭驗證流程，並加快申請審批速度。只是想問你們能不能給我們更新這方面的狀況。

Yes. So I'd say at this point, is probably not a department in the company that is untouched in some way. I think we have over 60 initiatives underway across the company. And you're right, they range from operations efficiency, guiding agents on next best action, taking sort of diverting customer contact whatsoever to compliance, marketing material, generation, audit, testing and generation, obviously heavy, heavy, heavy use in the engineering group for food development, and streamlining our QA efforts.

是的。所以我覺得，目前公司裡可能沒有哪個部門能完全置身事外。我認為我們公司目前正在進行超過 60 項計劃。你說得對，它們涵蓋了營運效率、指導代理商採取最佳行動、盡可能避免與客戶接觸、合規性、行銷材料、生成、審核、測試和生成，顯然在食品開發工程團隊中被大量使用，以及簡化我們的品質保證工作。

On the growth side, you've hit a couple of areas that we're really focused on that. There's obviously longer pole in the tent, marketing and credit continued evolution of our efforts there, which we won't talk about too much because we view that as part of our secret sauce. But then within the customer experience, the cushion acquisition, including the team is really -- will be evolving the DebtIQ experience to bring more intelligence to evaluating people's transactions and history and helping recommend actions to customers that improve their financial position.

在成長方面，你提到的幾個領域正是我們目前重點關注的領域。顯然，還有更長遠的規劃，那就是行銷和信貸，我們在這方面的努力也在不斷發展，但我們不會過多談論，因為我們認為這是我們的秘訣之一。但就客戶體驗而言，緩衝收購（包括團隊）確實將發展 DebtIQ 體驗，以更聰明地評估人們的交易和歷史記錄，並幫助向客戶推薦改善其財務狀況的措施。

So -- and the one you mentioned, we put into test in Q4 and are expanding across the board is for the rare cases where we do need to require some kind of documentation that we can't get electronically using AI to both assess whether the documents are what we ask for, whether or not they are real and not fraudulent and then to extract that information, populate models and render a decision is all improving or reducing the friction in the funnel and improving our pull-through. So there's just a ton of things happening across the company.

所以——你提到的那個，我們在第四季度進行了測試，並且正在全面推廣，它適用於極少數需要提供某種我們無法通過電子方式獲取的文件的情況。使用人工智慧來評估文件是否符合我們的要求，是否真實且無欺詐，然後提取這些信息，填充模型並做出決定，所有這些都是為了改善或減少銷售漏斗中的摩擦，並提高我們的轉換率。公司裡現在發生了很多事。

Okay. Got it. And the last question I have it's a difficult one, but you guys -- the guide for this year is the 13% to 15% near-term ROTCE guide you gave. Can you kind of help us map out how we get to the 18% to 20% medium-term target over time. Like with this fair value accounting, is it a gradual steady build quarter-over-quarter as you guys continue to scale up? Or is there a point -- and I know it can -- this is very dependent on the pace of originations and the seasoning of the portfolio, was there a point where maybe the ROTCE increase starts to slow down as the portfolio gets larger and that day 2 impact on the fair value gets larger? Or am I thinking about that a little bit wrong?

好的。知道了。最後一個問題比較難，但各位——今年的指導方針是你們給出的 13% 到 15% 的近期 ROTCE 指導方針。您能否幫我們規劃一下，如何逐步達成18%到20%的中期目標？就像這種公允價值會計處理方式一樣，隨著你們不斷擴大規模，這種做法是否是一個季度間逐步穩定成長的過程？或者是否存在這樣一個點——我知道可能會出現這種情況——這很大程度上取決於貸款發放的速度和投資組合的成熟度，是否存在這樣一個點，隨著投資組合規模的擴大，ROTCE 的增長速度可能會開始放緩，並且第二天對公允價值的影響也會增大？還是我的想法有點偏差？

I think -- no. I mean I think it will be -- our goal would be a steady increase up towards those medium-term targets. The dynamics of moving from CECL to fair value, I will say by the time we're entering 2027, they are largely -- they should largely be behind us. And from there, we're doing growth through all the steps we laid out at Investor Day, mainly growing originations, growing margin expecting a little help from the Fed, obviously, but that's not the biggest component of that development.

我覺得——不。我的意思是，我認為會的——我們的目標是穩步提高，朝著中期目標邁進。從 CECL 到公允價值的轉變，我認為到 2027 年，這些轉變的動態變化應該基本上已經過去了。在此基礎上，我們將按照投資者日上製定的所有步驟實現增長，主要是增加貸款發放量，提高利潤率，當然，我們也期待美聯儲能提供一些幫助，但這並不是這一發展的最大組成部分。

Growing originations growing the balance sheet both are going to be accretive to the bottom line.

貸款發放量的成長和資產負債表的改善都將提升公司的獲利能力。

I guess another way to think about it is the impact to profitability is relatively steady as long as you continue to grow the balance sheet at 25%. So like if you're growing it with say, $4 billion of loans or if you're growing it at $7 billion of loans, that doesn't impact the profitability as long as you're still growing at a similar level. Is that the right way to think about it?

換個角度想，只要資產負債表繼續以 25% 的速度成長，對獲利能力的影響就相對穩定。所以，不管你是用 40 億美元的貸款來發展，還是用 70 億美元的貸款來發展，只要你的成長速度保持相似水平，就不會影響獲利能力。這種思考方式正確嗎？

Yes. I mean the only growth headwind that we used to have was CECL, right? And so with that gone, the growth -- we should have positive operating leverage from growth or maybe I should say, positive pull-through now from growth as we grow over these next 3 years. So -- but the keys are really -- grow the business lines. We have the expansion in the home improvement, growing originations, growing the balance sheet and then pulling it through to net income.

是的。我的意思是，我們過去唯一面臨的成長阻力就是 CECL，對吧？因此，隨著這些因素的消除，成長——我們應該從成長中獲得正的經營槓桿，或者我應該說，隨著未來 3 年的成長，成長應該會帶來正的拉動效應。所以——但關鍵在於——拓展業務線。我們在家居裝修領域實現了擴張，貸款發放量不斷增長，資產負債表也隨之擴大，最終轉化為淨利潤。

There are no further questions online. I will now turn the call back to Artem Nalivayko for retail investor questions.

網路上沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話轉回給 Artem Nalivayko，回答散戶投資者的問題。

All right. Thank you, Kevin. So Scott and Drew, we have a couple of questions here that were submitted by our retail investors via Safe Technologies and e-mail. So the first question is on the rebrand.

好的。謝謝你，凱文。Scott 和 Drew，我們這裡有一些問題，這些問題是由我們的散戶投資者透過 Safe Technologies 和電子郵件提交的。所以第一個問題是關於品牌重塑的。

The question is, once the name change has been made, what are the marketing plans that you have in place?

問題是，一旦更名完成，你們有哪些行銷計畫？

Yes. So just a reminder, what's the intent of the rebrand. The initial LendingClub brand really was tied to our pioneering model of peer-to-peer lending, which is obviously no longer part of the model. We're not a bank. We don't just do lending. We've launched multiple consumer-facing Savings products, and Checking of which the name LendingClub on your debit card is quite strange.

是的。所以再次提醒一下，這次品牌重塑的目的是什麼？最初的 LendingClub 品牌確實與我們開創性的點對點借貸模式緊密相連，但這種模式顯然已不再是該模式的一部分。我們不是銀行。我們不僅僅做貸款。我們推出了多款面向消費者的儲蓄產品，其中藉記卡上的 LendingClub 名稱確實很奇怪。

So the rebrand is really meant to capture the broader ambition of the company, what we do for our customers beyond just lending. So plan is to do that later this year. Our first focus -- there could be a question of like, what are we doing between now and then? We are mapping out the literally thousands of touch points we have with our customers across e-mail, mobile app, third-party sites, and call center and all the rest and making sure that we've got everything captured make sure our equity translates from the old brand to the new brand.

因此，此次品牌重塑的真正目的是為了體現公司更廣泛的願景，即我們除了貸款之外還能為客戶提供什麼。所以計劃是在今年稍後進行。我們首先要關注的是──可能會出現這樣的問題：從現在到那時，我們要做什麼？我們正在梳理與客戶在電子郵件、行動應用程式、第三方網站、呼叫中心等所有管道的數千個接觸點，確保所有資訊都被記錄下來，確保我們的品牌資產能夠從舊品牌過渡到新品牌。

And then, yes, we will be putting some weight behind the new brand. I wouldn't expect -- we're not going to go from being a highly data-driven efficient curve oriented direct response marketer to getting stadium rights in 2026. So you're not going to see a big step change in how we think about marketing. But this is absolutely the beginning of us moving further up the funnel, if you will, as our offering to consumers broadens and what we stand for broadens, the marketing tactics we can use can also get more broad. And so, we do expect over time that you'll be seeing us beyond these direct response channels just won't be immediate.

是的，我們會大力推廣這個新品牌。我不認為——我們不可能從一家高度數據驅動、高效、以曲線為導向的直接響應行銷公司，一躍成為 2026 年獲得體育場館推廣權的公司。所以，你不會看到我們在行銷理念上發生巨大的轉變。但這絕對是我們向漏斗頂端邁進一步的開始，隨著我們向消費者提供的產品和服務範圍擴大，我們所代表的理念也擴大，我們可以使用的營銷策略也會更加廣泛。因此，我們預計隨著時間的推移，您將會在這些直接回應管道之外看到我們，只是這不會立即發生。

Great. So the second question, saw a recent press release on a partnership with a company called Wonder. Can you please elaborate on that?

偉大的。第二個問題是，我看到最近一份關於與一家名為 Wonder 的公司建立合作關係的媒體稿。能詳細說明一下嗎？

Yes. So if you recall at Investor Day, we talked about how we're taking our capabilities in unsecured consumer and which is applied, our largest use case is debt consolidation, credit card refi, but those same capabilities apply to any way you can use a personal loan, which is to finance any large purchase. We've been seeing really great traction there. We think there's a real -- we feel a real need in the space, which is we've got the resilient stable funding of a bank, but we've got the customer experience and the speed and the interaction model of a fintech.

是的。所以，如果你還記得在投資者日上，我們談到了我們如何利用我們在無擔保消費領域的能力，以及這些能力是如何應用的。我們最大的應用案例是債務整合、信用卡再融資，但這些能力同樣適用於你可以使用個人貸款的任何方式，也就是為任何大額消費融資。我們在那方面取得了非常好的進展。我們認為這個領域確實存在——我們感受到了真正的需求，那就是我們擁有銀行穩健的資金實力，但我們擁有金融科技公司的客戶體驗、速度和互動模式。

So we've been gaining distribution and growing that business or kind of core verticals that we're in today, elective medical, dental, teeth implants, fertility, tutoring, few others. And we're expanding into others, ophthalmology, wellness. And we're testing some purchase verticals. So that's what that is. These are all -- these and other things, which -- some of which get announced and some of which we're just doing as part of our testing are all meant to assess consumer demand in incremental verticals that will diversify our use case, diversify our acquisition channels and provide future vectors for growth. So excited about it, seeing very solid traction in the business overall and are excited to keep growing.

因此，我們一直在拓展分銷管道，發展我們目前所處的核心垂直領域，包括擇期醫療、牙科、牙齒植入、生育、輔導等等。我們正在向其他領域拓展，例如眼科和健康領域。我們正在測試一些購買垂直領域。原來如此。這些——以及其他一些事情——其中一些會對外公佈，而另一些只是我們作為測試的一部分進行，所有這些都是為了評估消費者在增量垂直領域的需求，這將使我們的用例多樣化，使我們的獲取管道多樣化，並為未來的成長提供方向。對此我們感到非常興奮，看到公司整體業務發展勢頭非常強勁，並期待繼續發展壯大。

Perfect. And last question, just in terms of increasing shareholder value in the long term. How does leadership intend to drive shareholder value?

完美的。最後一個問題，就長期提高股東價值而言。領導階層打算如何提升股東價值？

All right. Well, always a great question, and thank you, retail investor for that. I'd say the number -- rather than me explaining it all again on this call, I'd say the number one thing investors to do is go watch our Investor Day that we did in November, because I think there is a lot of time dedicated to going through the strategy and how we expect it to evolve over the next several years. But citing what we accomplished in a lot of which we already covered on the call.

好的。嗯，這始終是一個很好的問題，感謝散戶的提問。與其讓我在這次電話會議上再次解釋，不如說投資者們最應該做的就是去觀看我們在 11 月份舉辦的投資者日活動，因為我認為活動上花了大量時間講解我們的戰略以及我們預計該戰略在未來幾年將如何發展。但請列舉我們所取得的成就，其中許多我們已經在電話會議上討論過了。

For the full year, we grew originations 33%. We grew revenue 27% and we grew diluted EPS by 158% year-over-year. So I think 2025 was a great year. And if you look at our guide for 2026, we're looking to obviously improve upon performance again as we go into this year. And then finally, we announced the share repurchase and acquisition program of $100 million, which we think is also beneficial to shareholders now and in the future.

全年來看，我們的貸款發放量增加了 33%。我們實現了營收成長 27%，稀釋後每股盈餘較去年同期成長 158%。所以我認為2025年是個很棒的年份。如果你看看我們 2026 年的規劃，你會發現我們顯然希望在今年再次提升業績。最後，我們宣布了1億美元的股票回購和收購計劃，我們認為這對股東現在和未來都有好處。

Right Thanks, Drew. All right. So with that, we'll wrap up our fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. Thank you all for joining us today. And if you have any questions, please e-mail us at ir@lendingclub.com. Thank you.

好的，謝謝，德魯。好的。至此，我們的2025年第四季及全年財報電話會議就結束了。感謝各位今天蒞臨。如有任何疑問，請發送電子郵件至ir@lendingclub.com。謝謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝各位的出席。