LendingClub Corp (LC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone. Thank you for attending today's LendingClub fourth-quarter 2023 earnings conference call. My name is Sierra, and I will be your moderator today. (Operator Instructions)

大家好。感謝您參加今天的 LendingClub 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫 Sierra，今天我將擔任你們的主持人。（操作員說明）

I would like to pass the conference over to our host, Artem Nalivayko, Head of Investor Relations.

我想將會議交給我們的東道主投資者關係主管 Artem Nalivayko。

Thank you and good afternoon. Welcome to LendingClub's fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings conference call. Joining me today to talk about our results are Scott Sanborn, CEO, and Drew LaBenne, CFO. You can find the presentation accompanying our earnings release on the Investor Relations section of our website.

謝謝你，下午好。歡迎參加 LendingClub 的第四季和 2023 年全年財報電話會議。今天與我一起談論我們業績的是執行長 Scott Sanborn 和財務長德魯·拉本尼 (Drew LaBenne)。您可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到我們收益發布隨附的簡報。

On the call, in addition to questions from analysts, we will also be answering some of the questions that were submitted for consideration via email. Our remarks today will include forward-looking statements, including with respect to our competitive advantages and strategy, macroeconomic conditions and outlook, platform volume, future products and services, and future business and financial performance.

在電話會議上，除了分析師提出的問題外，我們還將回答透過電子郵件提交供考慮的一些問題。我們今天的言論將包括前瞻性陳述，包括我們的競爭優勢和策略、宏觀經濟狀況和前景、平台數量、未來產品和服務以及未來業務和財務表現。

Our actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause these results to differ materially are described in today's press release and presentation. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on current expectations and assumptions, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events.

我們的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述預期的結果有重大差異。今天的新聞稿和簡報中描述了可能導致這些結果出現重大差異的因素。我們在本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於當前的預期和假設，我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些陳述的義務。

Our remarks also include non-GAAP measures relating to our performance, including tangible book value per share, pre-provision net revenue, and risk adjusted revenue. You can find more information on our use of non-GAAP measures and a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in today's earnings release and presentation.

我們的評論還包括與我們績效相關的非公認會計原則衡量標準，包括每股有形帳面價值、撥備前淨收入和風險調整後收入。您可以在今天的收益發布和演示中找到有關我們使用非公認會計準則衡量標準的更多信息，以及與最直接可比的公認會計準則衡量標準的調節。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

現在我想把電話轉給史考特。

All right. Thank you, Artem. Welcome, everyone. We're pleased with how we closed out the year, delivering an 8% increase in originations quarter on quarter, supported by a 21% increase in marketplace loans. This growth in originations, which is our first since the Fed began rapidly increasing rates, was driven by marketplace demand for our new structured certificates program. These results are a clear indication that our strategy is working and that we're finding equilibrium in this current high rate environment.

好的。謝謝你，阿爾喬姆。歡迎大家。我們對今年的收官情況感到滿意，在市場貸款成長 21% 的支持下，發起量較上季成長 8%。這是自聯準會開始快速升息以來我們的首次成長，是由市場對我們新的結構化證書計劃的需求所推動的。這些結果清楚地表明我們的策略正在發揮作用，並且我們正在當前的高利率環境中找到平衡。

Pre-provision net revenue was $56 million, thanks to disciplined expense management. And importantly, we delivered another quarter of profitability, doubling net income quarter over quarter to $10 million.

由於嚴格的費用管理，撥備前淨收入為 5,600 萬美元。重要的是，我們又實現了一個季度的盈利，淨利潤環比翻了一番，達到 1000 萬美元。

Turning to credit on page 8 of our earnings presentation, you'll see that we've delivered three years of lower delinquencies compared to our competitive set. Of note, the most recent data point shows roughly 40% lower delinquencies across all prime FICO segments, which is key to us delivering strong returns for ourselves and our marketplace investors.

轉向我們收益報告第 8 頁的信用，您會發現與我們的競爭對手相比，我們三年來的拖欠率較低。值得注意的是，最新的數據點顯示，所有主要 FICO 細分市場的拖欠率降低了約 40%，這是我們為自己和市場投資者帶來豐厚回報的關鍵。

These results are a testament to the talent of our team, the capabilities of our platform, and our strong data advantage derived from over $90 billion in originations issued through multiple credit environments over the past 16 years. Our current originations are focused on prime consumers with loans coming onto our balance sheet having a weighted average FICO of around 750.

這些結果證明了我們團隊的才華、平台的能力以及我們強大的數據優勢，這些優勢源自於過去 16 年透過多種信貸環境發行的超過 900 億美元的資金。我們目前的業務重點是優質消費者，我們的資產負債表上的貸款加權平均 FICO 約為 750。

Stepping back, we're only a few days away from celebrating the third anniversary of acquiring our national bank charter. We have worked diligently to address and satisfy the requirements of the operating agreement we entered into as a new bank, and we believe we're well positioned to move forward, which will be an important milestone in our evolution and maturation.

退一步來說，我們距離慶祝獲得國家銀行執照三週年只有幾天的時間了。我們一直在努力解決和滿足我們作為新銀行簽訂的營運協議的要求，我們相信我們已經做好了向前邁進的準備，這將是我們發展和成熟過程中的一個重要里程碑。

Since acquiring the bank, we have fundamentally transformed our business and financial profile. We took over the origination of our own loans, introduced and scaled a full set of award-winning banking services, evolved our mobile technology foundation, introduce new bank-enabled structures to enhance the marketplace, built a resilient balance sheet and corresponding income stream, and have remained durably profitable.

自從收購該銀行以來，我們從根本上改變了我們的業務和財務狀況。我們接管了自己的貸款發放，推出並擴展了全套屢獲殊榮的銀行服務，發展了我們的行動技術基礎，引入了新的銀行支援結構以增強市場，建立了有彈性的資產負債表和相應的收入流，並保持持續獲利。

For perspective, in the last three years, we have tripled the size of our balance sheet to almost $9 billion at yearend, nearly quadrupled our deposit base to $7.4 billion at yearend, with 87% of those deposits fully FDIC-insured more than tripled quarterly net interest income, a recurring and resilient revenue stream, and nearly doubled our tangible book value per share to $10.54 as we exited the year.

從長遠來看，在過去三年中，我們的資產負債表規模擴大了兩倍，年底達到近90 億美元，存款基礎幾乎翻了兩番，年底達到74 億美元，其中87% 的存款由FDIC完全承保，季度增長兩倍多淨利息收入、經常性且有彈性的收入流，以及我們年底時每股有形賬面價值幾乎翻了一番，達到 10.54 美元。

We have also made progress towards a differentiated, multiproduct, mobile-first membership experience. Following the Radius acquisition, we began building the systems and technical infrastructure necessary to take deposits at scale and support a national digital platform, a process that took some time but enabled us to build our balance sheet, sustained profitability, and enable future mobile experiences.

我們也在差異化、多產品、行動優先的會員體驗方面取得了進展。收購Radius 後，我們開始建立大規模吸收存款和支援國家數位平台所需的系統和技術基礎設施，這一過程花費了一些時間，但使我們能夠建立資產負債表、持續盈利並實現未來的行動體驗。

In December, we introduced mobile loan servicing through the app, giving our borrowers the ability to make payments, view progress, change due dates, and more. While we are in beta and have not yet promoted the existence of the app to our loan customers, 20% of our visits from recent personal loan customers are coming through the app. And these users are visiting us at a higher frequency, which bodes well for driving future engagement.

12 月，我們透過該應用程式推出了行動貸款服務，使借款人能夠進行付款、查看進度、更改到期日等。雖然我們還處於測試階段，尚未向貸款客戶推廣該應用程序，但近期個人貸款客戶的訪問中有 20% 是透過該應用程式進行的。這些用戶造訪我們的頻率更高，這對推動未來的參與度來說是個好兆頭。

We have also launched the first phase of what will ultimately be a comprehensive debt monitoring and management tool. While in early stages, this will ultimately give members a way to track, prioritize, and optimize debt payments using new information and tools. While the recent reduction in force has us proceeding with application development at a more measured pace than we'd like, we continue to make progress, and we'll provide updates as appropriate.

我們也啟動了最終將成為全面債務監控和管理工具的第一階段。雖然處於早期階段，但這最終將為會員提供一種使用新資訊和工具來追蹤、確定優先順序和優化債務支付的方法。雖然最近的人員減少使我們以比我們希望的更快的速度進行應用程式開發，但我們仍在繼續取得進展，並且我們將酌情提供更新。

At the same time, we've been preparing our personal loans franchise to meet the historic refinance opportunity ahead by further improving and differentiating LendingClub with two experiences unique to us. We're currently testing and reading credit performance on the first generation of a line of credit product that allows approved members to easily sweep accumulated credit card balances into fully amortizing payment plans. We'll be gaining important insight that will benefit us in developing future revolving products down the road.

同時，我們一直在準備我們的個人貸款特許經營權，以透過我們獨有的兩種體驗進一步改進和差異化 LendingClub，以迎接未來的歷史性再融資機會。我們目前正在測試和讀取第一代信用額度產品的信用表現，該產品允許獲得批准的會員輕鬆地將累積的信用卡餘額轉入完全攤銷付款計劃。我們將獲得重要的見解，這將有利於我們今後開發未來的旋轉產品。

We also recently launched the option for qualified members to top-up an existing personal loan. For example, to manage newly accumulated debt, members can easily secure additional funds while maintaining one single payment and LendingClub earns an origination fee on the incremental loan amount. Together, these efforts are further differentiating our personal loans franchise and creating a powerful entry point into our broader LendingClub offerings.

我們最近也為合格會員推出了為現有個人貸款充值的選項。例如，為了管理新累積的債務，會員可以輕鬆獲得額外資金，同時維持一次付款，LendingClub 可以根據增量貸款金額賺取啟動費用。這些努力共同進一步使我們的個人貸款業務脫穎而出，並為我們更廣泛的 LendingClub 產品創造了一個強大的切入點。

In closing, I'm proud of how we continue to effectively execute in a challenging environment. We are quickly and successfully innovating to meet evolving opportunities. We continue to outperform on credit, and we remain consistently profitable. Importantly, we also continue to produce real value for our members, saving them on their cost of credit, improving their credit profile, and helping them earn more on what they save.

最後，我對我們如何在充滿挑戰的環境中繼續有效執行感到自豪。我們正在快速、成功地進行創新，以滿足不斷變化的機會。我們在信貸方面繼續跑贏大盤，並且保持持續盈利。重要的是，我們也繼續為我們的會員創造真正的價值，節省他們的信貸成本，改善他們的信用狀況，並幫助他們從節省的資金中賺取更多收入。

For that, I want to thank our employees who have remained focused and innovative throughout a turbulent year. I look forward to working together in the year ahead to capture the historic opportunity in front of us.

為此，我要感謝我們的員工，他們在動盪的一年中始終保持專注和創新。我期待著在新的一年共同努力，抓住我們面前的歷史性機會。

Hello, everyone. I'll walk you through the details of our results in the fourth quarter, starting with originations. We originated over $1.6 billion compared to $1.5 billion in the prior quarter and $2.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022. As Scott discussed, our quarterly increase in originations was on the back of our very successful structured certificate program, which was approximately $1 billion of the total originations in the quarter.

大家好。我將向您詳細介紹我們第四季的業績，從起源開始。我們的初始資金超過 16 億美元，而上一季為 15 億美元，2022 年第四季為 25 億美元。正如 Scott 所討論的，我們的季度發起量增長得益於我們非常成功的結構化證書計劃，該計劃佔本季度發起總額的約 10 億美元。

We also sold $350 million of whole loans sold through the marketplace. On our balance sheet, we accumulated $100 million into held for sale for our extended seasoning program to meet future investor demand for seasoned loans, and we retained $200 million in our held for investment portfolio. We've added a new slide on page 10 of our presentation to illustrate the relative economics of the four primary programs we have at our disposal to sell or retain loans.

我們還透過市場出售了 3.5 億美元的全部貸款。在我們的資產負債表上，我們累積了 1 億美元用於延長老化計畫的待售資產，以滿足未來投資者對老化貸款的需求，並在持有投資組合中保留了 2 億美元。我們在簡報的第 10 頁新增了一張新投影片，以說明我們可以用來出售或保留貸款的四個主要計劃的相對經濟性。

Being a marketplace bank and having these disposition channels allows us to balance in-period earnings with lifetime value. We will flex between these programs depending on the market environment and our capital allocation goals. Whole loan sales and structured certificates allow us to take more upfront economics and operate in a capital-light manner, which is credit risk remote and comes without required upfront credit reserves. Loans that we hold on the balance sheet, provide the strongest lifetime returns, but also cause P&L and capital impacts upfront.

作為一家市場銀行並擁有這些處置管道，我們可以平衡期內收益與終身價值。我們將根據市場環境和我們的資本配置目標在這些計劃之間進行靈活調整。整體貸款銷售和結構化證書使我們能夠採取更多的前期經濟措施並以輕資本方式運營，這種方式可以降低信用風險，並且無需預先準備信貸儲備。我們在資產負債表上持有的貸款提供了最強勁的終身回報，但也會預先造成損益和資本影響。

On page 11 of the earnings presentation, you will see the mix of the assets we put on balance sheet from the programs on the prior page. In Q4, we further remix the balance sheet towards structured certificates, given the strong in-period economics and investor interest in the program. In Q1, we plan to continue adding the senior security from the structured program to our balance sheet and also increased the amount of whole loans we retained through both HFI and extended season.

在收益簡報的第 11 頁上，您將看到我們從上一頁的項目放入資產負債表的資產組合。鑑於強勁的同期經濟狀況和投資者對該計劃的興趣，第四季度，我們進一步將資產負債表重新調整為結構性證書。在第一季度，我們計劃繼續將結構化計劃中的優先擔保添加到我們的資產負債表中，並增加我們透過 HFI 和延長季節保留的全部貸款金額。

Extended seasoning allows us to add whole loans to the balance sheet and earn a strong yield while seasoning for investors with the goal of generating higher sales prices over time. While we're just beginning to build up inventory, the program has been off to a great start. As a reminder, we completed a sale of approximately $200 million in the third quarter and have just completed another $100 million transaction where we sold extended seasoning loans through into our structured certificate program for the first time with the sale price above our carrying value.

延長調味使我們能夠將全部貸款添加到資產負債表中，並獲得強勁的收益，同時為投資者提供調味，目標是隨著時間的推移產生更高的銷售價格。雖然我們剛開始建立庫存，但該計劃已經有了一個良好的開端。提醒一下，我們在第三季完成了約2 億美元的銷售，並且剛剛完成了另一筆1 億美元的交易，其中我們首次將延長調味品貸款出售到我們的結構化證書計劃中，銷售價格高於我們的帳面價值。

As we continue to grow and remix the balance sheet, we expect to achieve stability in net interest income, albeit at a lower net interest margin. On slide 12, you can see that our net interest margin was 6.4% compared to 6.9% in the prior quarter and 7.8% in the prior year. This change reflects the combination of our growth in securities from the structured certificate program and higher funding costs as we grow our deposit balances in the period.

隨著我們繼續擴大和重組資產負債表，我們預計淨利息收入將實現穩定，儘管淨利差較低。在投影片 12 上，您可以看到我們的淨利差為 6.4%，而上一季為 6.9%，上年為 7.8%。這項變更反映了我們來自結構化證書計劃的證券增長以及我們在此期間存款餘額增長帶來的更高的融資成本。

We have recently increased the rate on our high-yield savings deposit product as we plan to continue balance sheet expansion in 2024. High-yield savings is our most effective outlet to do so while also retaining more flexibility to reprice those deposits, should the Fed start to lower rates. Overall, we expect a larger balance sheet to offset lower margins as we move through the year and keep net interest income relatively stable in 2024 with upside should the Fed start to ease.

由於我們計劃在 2024 年繼續擴大資產負債表，我們最近提高了高收益儲蓄存款產品的利率。高收益儲蓄是我們這樣做的最有效的出路，同時如果聯準會開始降低利率，也可以保留對這些存款重新定價的更大靈活性。總體而言，我們預計今年規模更大的資產負債表將抵消利潤率下降的影響，並在 2024 年保持淨利息收入相對穩定，如果聯準會開始放鬆政策，淨利息收入將有上行空間。

Now let's move on to pre-provision net revenue or PPNR. PPNR was $56 billion for the quarter, which came in stronger than we expected, largely due to outperformance on expenses. Let's jump into the two components of PPNR starting with revenue where you can see the detail on page 13 of our presentation. Total revenue for the quarter was $186 million compared to $201 million in the prior quarter and $263 million in the same quarter of the prior year.

現在讓我們繼續討論預撥淨收入或 PPNR。本季 PPNR 為 560 億美元，強於我們的預期，這主要是由於支出表現優異。讓我們從收入開始進入 PPNR 的兩個組成部分，您可以在我們簡報的第 13 頁上看到詳細資訊。本季總營收為 1.86 億美元，上一季總營收為 2.01 億美元，去年同期總營收為 2.63 億美元。

Let me break revenue down into the two components starting with non-interest income. Non-interest income was $54 million in the quarter, down from $64 million in the prior quarter. The change in non-interest income was primarily driven by the non-recurrence of the $10 million third quarter revenue benefit that I mentioned last quarter.

讓我將收入分解為兩個組成部分，首先是非利息收入。本季非利息收入為 5,400 萬美元，低於上一季的 6,400 萬美元。非利息收入的變化主要是由於我上個季度提到的第三季 1000 萬美元收入收益不再重複所致。

There are some other moving pieces that includes higher sold loan volumes, generating higher transaction fees, offset by a $5 million decrease quarter over quarter in the value of our servicing asset, primarily due to higher quality loan mix, and slightly lower loan sales prices due to a mix shift away from banks, partially offset by higher pricing asset managers.

還有其他一些變化，包括已售貸款量增加，產生更高的交易費用，但我們的服務資產價值環比減少500 萬美元，這主要是由於更高質量的貸款組合以及由於貸款銷售價格略有下降而抵銷的。向銀行的混合轉變，部分被資產管理公司定價較高所抵銷。

On to net interest income, which was $131 million in the quarter compared to $137 million in the prior quarter and $135 million in the same quarter of the prior year. The change in net interest income was primarily driven by the shift toward a lower risk securities portfolio in Q4, which has a correspondingly lower net interest margin.

關於淨利息收入，本季為 1.31 億美元，而上一季為 1.37 億美元，去年同期為 1.35 億美元。淨利息收入的變化主要是由於第四季度轉向較低風險的證券投資組合所致，該投資組合的淨利差相應較低。

At the bottom of the page, you will notice we are highlighting risk-adjusted revenue this quarter. Risk-adjusted revenue is total revenue less provision for credit losses. This measure increased from $136 million in the prior quarter to $144 million this quarter, which was the result of lower day one CECL provision and a growing structured certificate program. We believe this is a useful metric that illustrates the lower risk nature of the assets put on the balance sheet this quarter.

在頁面底部，您會注意到我們突出顯示了本季風險調整後的收入。風險調整收入是總收入減去信用損失撥備。這項指標從上一季的 1.36 億美元增加到本季的 1.44 億美元，這是第一天 CECL 撥款減少和結構化證書計畫不斷增長的結果。我們認為這是一個有用的指標，可以說明本季資產負債表上資產的較低風險性質。

Now please turn to slide 14 of our earnings presentation, which refers to the second component of PPNR non-interest expense, which is what drove our outperformance for the quarter. Non-interest expense was $130 million in the quarter compared to $128 million in the prior quarter and $180 million in the same quarter last year.

現在請翻到我們收益簡報的幻燈片 14，其中提到了 PPNR 非利息支出的第二個組成部分，這是推動我們本季表現優異的原因。本季非利息支出為 1.3 億美元，上一季為 1.28 億美元，去年同期為 1.8 億美元。

Last quarter, we provided guidance on non-interest expense, excluding marketing of $115 million to $120 million. Results came in better than we expected at $107 million as a result of expense discipline on staffing and other third party expenses. Marketing remains very efficient with total spend of $23 million compared to $20 million in the previous quarter, primarily driven by higher origination volumes and deposit growth in this period.

上季度，我們提供了非利息支出指導，不包括 1.15 億至 1.2 億美元的行銷費用。由於人員配置和其他第三方費用的支出紀律，結果優於我們的預期，達到 1.07 億美元。行銷仍然非常高效，總支出為 2,300 萬美元，而上一季為 2,000 萬美元，這主要是由於這段時期的發起量和存款成長所致。

Now let's turn to provision. On page 15, you'll see provision for credit losses was $42 million for the quarter compared to $64 million in the prior quarter and $62 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. The sequential change was the result of lower day one CECL due to fewer held for investment loans retained in the quarter and lower incremental provision on older vintages.

現在讓我們轉向供應。在第 15 頁，您會看到本季的信貸損失撥備為 4,200 萬美元，而上一季為 6,400 萬美元，2022 年第四季為 6,200 萬美元。連續變化是第一天 CECL 較低的結果，因為本季保留的投資貸款減少，以及較舊年份的增量撥備減少。

On page 16 of our earnings presentation, we have added our lifetime loss expectations for the 2023 vintage. We're seeing stable early month delinquency performance. However, given its longer remaining life and the potential for economic uncertainty, we have applied a higher qualitative reserve to the 2023 vintage. If we normalize for qualitative reserves, the 2023 vintage would show lower lifetime loss estimates compared to 2022. The marginal ROEs remain strong for all vintages.

在我們的收益報告第 16 頁上，我們新增了 2023 年的終身損失預期。我們看到月初的拖欠表現穩定。然而，考慮到其較長的剩餘壽命和潛在的經濟不確定性，我們對 2023 年份的葡萄酒進行了更高的品質儲備。如果我們將定性儲量標準化，2023 年年份的壽命損失估計值將低於 2022 年。所有年份的邊際淨值報酬率都保持強勁。

On the bottom of page 16, we show the allowance for future net charge-offs by vintage. In an effort to improve the disclosure, we are now showing this loss coverage, excluding the recovery asset. The recovery asset is the present value of future recovery previously charged-off loans and not related to loss coverage on outstanding balances. This is netted against the allowance on the face of the balance sheet.

在第 16 頁的底部，我們按年份顯示了未來淨沖銷的準備金。為了改善揭露，我們現在顯示此損失覆蓋範圍，不包括恢復資產。回收資產是先前沖銷的貸款的未來回收的現值，與未償餘額的損失覆蓋無關。這是從資產負債表上的備抵中扣除的。

And on page 17, we have added an illustrative example of the credit lifecycle of a single hypothetical vintage. It is important to note that the dollar charge-offs peak at approximately 18 months after the vintages issue. For reference, our held for investment portfolio is approximately 15 months old. Given the age of our HFI portfolio and how underlying vintages mature, we expect dollar net charge-offs to peak on our portfolio in the coming quarters and to begin to decline from there.

在第 17 頁，我們新增了單一假設年份的信用生命週期的說明範例。值得注意的是，美元沖銷在年份發行後約 18 個月達到高峰。作為參考，我們持有的投資組合大約有 15 個月的歷史。考慮到我們的 HFI 投資組合的年齡以及基礎年份的成熟程度，我們預計我們的投資組合的美元淨沖銷將在未來幾季達到峰值，並從那時開始下降。

As a reminder, we have already taken an upfront CECL provision for future net charge-offs on a discounted basis, which is reflected in our portfolio allowance. Due to this timing dynamic, we expect to lower in-period CECL provisions compared to net charge-offs in the coming quarters and our in-period net charge-off rate will continue to increase as the portfolio ages, but on lower outstanding balances. These trends may also reverse if we increase HFI loan retention, which has the impact of decreasing the average age of the portfolio.

提醒一下，我們已經在折扣的基礎上為未來的淨沖銷預付了 CECL 準備金，這反映在我們的投資組合準備金中。由於這種時間動態，我們預計未來幾季的期內 CECL 準備金將低於淨沖銷，並且隨著投資組合的老化，我們的期內淨沖銷率將繼續增加，但未償餘額較低。如果我們提高 HFI 貸款保留率，這些趨勢也可能會逆轉，這會降低投資組合的平均年齡。

Now let's move to taxes. Taxes in the quarter were $3.5 million or 26% of pretax income. As I mentioned before, we will have some variability in the effective tax rate from quarter to quarter. For the year, our effective tax rate was 28.7%, roughly in line with our long-term expectation of 27%.

現在讓我們轉向稅收。該季度的稅金為 350 萬美元，佔稅前收入的 26%。正如我之前提到的，每季的有效稅率都會有一些變化。今年，我們的有效稅率為28.7%，大致符合我們27%的長期預期。

Now let's move on to guidance. For the first quarter, we anticipate holding originations roughly in line with Q4 in a range of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion at similar loan sale pricing. We expect PPNR to range from $30 million to $40 million, reflecting the growth and repositioning of our balance sheet to lower risk structured certificates, resulting in lower net interest income.

現在讓我們繼續指導。對於第一季度，我們預計以類似的貸款銷售定價，持有的貸款金額將在 15 億至 17 億美元之間，與第四季度大致一致。我們預計 PPNR 範圍為 3,000 萬美元至 4,000 萬美元，反映了我們資產負債表的成長和重新定位，以降低風險結構性證書，從而導致淨利息收入降低。

With the corresponding lower provision for loan losses, we plan to continue deliver to deliver positive net income for the quarter. Beyond Q1 and until the rate environment improves materially, we expect originations revenue and PPNR to stabilize at or near the ranges given in our Q1 earnings guidance. Of course, this also assumes that the economy remains on stable footing throughout 2024.

由於貸款損失撥備相應降低，我們計劃繼續實現本季的正淨利潤。在第一季之後，直到利率環境實質改善之前，我們預計發起收入和 PPNR 將穩定在或接近我們第一季獲利指引中給出的範圍。當然，這也假設經濟在 2024 年全年保持穩定。

As we showed earlier in the presentation, our balance sheet remains strong with ample liquidity and capital to allow for growth in 2024. Given the strong marginal lead ROEs that we generate through our loan production, we will continually look to deploy this liquidity, capital, and any excess earnings into retaining production to improve future returns for shareholders.

正如我們在前面的演示中所展示的，我們的資產負債表依然強勁，流動性和資本充足，可以實現 2024 年的成長。鑑於我們透過貸款生產產生的強勁邊際領先股本回報率，我們將繼續尋求將這些流動性、資本和任何超額收益用於保留生產，以提高股東的未來回報。

With that, we'll open it up for Q&A.

這樣，我們將開放它進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Brad Capuzzi, Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）Brad Capuzzi、Piper Sandler。

Hi, team. Just wanted to touch on I know you're growing the structure certificate program, just your thoughts between holding loans, same loan, and then this program, especially with the capacity to hold more loans on balance sheet. Your retention ratio has come down considerably over the past year. Do you think there's potential maybe to start holding more loans and it could be potentially more strategic longer term? And I know the dynamic that plays out with a day one CECL provisioning but wanted to just hear your thoughts there?

大家好。只是想談談我知道您正在發展結構證書計劃，只是您在持有貸款、相同貸款和該計劃之間的想法，特別是有能力在資產負債表上持有更多貸款。在過去的一年裡，您的保留率大幅下降。您認為是否有可能開始持有更多貸款，並且長期來看可能更具戰略意義？我知道第一天 CECL 配置的動態，但想聽聽您的想法？

Yeah. Hey. Brad, it's Drew. Thanks for the question. I'd say, yes, we do plan on holding a higher percentage of our originations in whole loan form either through HFI or through extended seasoning. If you look at page 11 of the presentation, we indicated that in our -- softly for Q1, saying that we expect our mix of structured certificate A notes going on the balance sheet to be about 60% and whole loans to be about 40%. So that is a focus for us to get back to increase holds of whole loans on the balance sheet.

是的。嘿。布拉德，我是德魯。謝謝你的提問。我想說，是的，我們確實計劃透過 HFI 或延長期限以整體貸款形式持有更高比例的貸款。如果你看一下簡報的第 11 頁，我們會在第一季溫和地表示，我們預計資產負債表上的結構性 A 類證書票據組合將佔 60% 左右，全部貸款將佔 40% 左右。因此，這是我們重新增加資產負債表上全部貸款持有量的重點。

Got you. Thank you. And then just one follow-up. Is there -- your CET1 ratio is now at 17.9%. I believe you guys are around 11%. Is there any thoughts on potentially redeploying this capital?

明白你了。謝謝。然後只有一個後續行動。有沒有——你的CET1比率現在是17.9%。我相信你們大概是11%左右。是否有可能重新部署這筆資金的想法？

Yeah. So I think the 11% you are referencing that was our Tier 1 leverage ratio constraint under the operating agreement in, yeah, CET1 pro down 18% on a consolidated basis. So yeah, we have ample capital and liquidity for growth in the future. And yeah, I think we will use that capital definitely to grow the balance sheet going forward.

是的。因此，我認為您提到的 11% 是營運協議下我們的一級槓桿率限制，是的，CET1 pro 在合併基礎上下降了 18%。所以，是的，我們有充足的資本和流動性來實現未來的成長。是的，我認為我們肯定會利用這筆資金來擴大未來的資產負債表。

Awesome. Thanks for taking the question.

驚人的。感謝您提出問題。

Giuliano Bologna, Compass Point.

朱利亞諾·博洛尼亞，指南針點。

Hi. Congrats on the results this quarter. One thing I was curious about was thinking about your ability to expand these seasoning program growing forward. I realize it's tough to predict. But I'd be curious to know how much visibility you have over the next few quarters around demand and just where do you think that could go?

你好。恭喜本季的業績。我很好奇的一件事是考慮您未來擴展這些調味計劃的能力。我意識到這很難預測。但我很想知道您對未來幾季的需求有多少了解，以及您認為這會走向何方？

Yeah. I mean, I think the extended seasoning program, which we just started about a quarter ago now is off to a great success. As we mentioned, we sold $200 million out of that early on. And then we sold another $100 million, which closed in January that went directly into a structured certificate program. That was the first time we actually had a combination of the two programs.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們大約一個季度前剛開始的延長調味計劃現在已經取得了巨大成功。正如我們所提到的，我們很早就賣掉了其中的 2 億美元。然後我們又出售了 1 億美元，該項目於 1 月完成，直接進入結構化證書計劃。這是我們第一次真正將這兩個項目結合起來。

And I think that encourages us quite a bit that we should be seasoning more loans and keeping more inventory available for sale either whole loan or through the structured certificate program. So that -- so long way of saying we are bullish on the program within reason, and it will definitely be growing it over the coming quarters.

我認為這極大地鼓勵了我們，我們應該提供更多貸款，並保持更多庫存可供出售，無論是整個貸款還是透過結構化證書計劃。因此，這麼長的說法是我們在合理範圍內看好該計劃，並且它肯定會在未來幾季不斷增長。

That's very helpful. But then I think you have the operating agreement income expires next month if I'm not mistaken. I'd be curious if there's any thought process around being a little more strategic with your capital because you're trading at a discount sample book value and you have a, yeah, fairly robust capital at this point. I'm curious how you think about you deploying capital outside of the -- for capital return or any other initiatives?

這非常有幫助。但如果我沒記錯的話，我認為你的營運協議收入下個月到期。我很好奇是否有任何思考過程可以使您的資本更具策略性，因為您以折扣樣本帳面價值進行交易，並且您目前擁有相當強勁的資本。我很好奇您如何看待在資本回報或任何其他舉措之外部署資本？

Yeah. Hey, Giuliano. This is Scott. So our -- the three year term is actually coming up on Friday. And as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we feel we've done everything we can to position the company well and meet our obligations under that. So assuming we exit, which again, is at the discretion of the regulators, and we'll share that news 9hen and if we get it, that does allow us to think a little bit differently about capital, both leverage ratios as opposed to being dictated upfront would be the results of our own stress tests as well as other ways to deploy capital. So it'll give us some new tools in the toolkit, which we look forward to engaging on and discussing with the Board.

是的。嘿，朱利亞諾。這是斯科特。因此，我們的三年任期實際上將於週五到期。正如我在準備好的發言中所提到的，我們認為我們已盡一切努力為公司做好定位並履行我們的義務。因此，假設我們退出，這又是由監管機構決定的，我們將在 9hen 分享這個消息，如果我們得到它，這確實讓我們對資本有一點不同的思考，無論是槓桿率還是槓桿率。預先規定的將是我們自己的壓力測試的結果以及部署資本的其他方式。因此，它將為我們提供工具包中的一些新工具，我們期待與董事會進行接觸和討論。

That's very helpful. And then maybe one last one, and hopefully, I'm not asking something that came up my prepared remarks. I'm curious roughly where these extended seasonings and loans are being marked or gives us about what the discount rate is or the implied yield on the execution side in the fourth quarter and where that could trend?

這非常有幫助。也許還有最後一個，希望我問的不是我準備好的發言中的內容。我很好奇這些延長的調味料和貸款在哪裡被標記，或者讓我們知道貼現率是多少，或者第四季度執行方面的隱含收益率以及趨勢是什麼？

Yeah. So loans that are in the extended seasoning program at the end of the quarter were at $96.75 million in terms of price. So a little higher than where we were last quarter, where I think they were $96.5 million last quarter. So some slight improvement that was based on the execution, the price of execution on the $100 million that we sold. And then -- sorry, what was the second part of the question?

是的。因此，截至本季末，延長期限計劃中的貸款價格為 9,675 萬美元。所以略高於上個季度的水平，我認為上個季度的銷售額為 9,650 萬美元。因此，一些細微的改進是基於執行、我們出售的 1 億美元的執行價格。然後——抱歉，問題的第二部分是什麼？

The discount rate.

折扣率。

Oh, discount rate. Yeah, discount rate, we're using is 9%, which is down from 9.6% in Q3.

哦，折扣率。是的，我們使用的折扣率為 9%，低於第三季的 9.6%。

That's very helpful. Thank you so very much and I'll jump back in the queue.

這非常有幫助。非常感謝您，我會插回隊列中。

Bill Ryan, Seaport Research Partners.

比爾·瑞安，海港研究合作夥伴。

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. First, just following up on a little bit more detail. The trend in the fair value marks on your loan sold, if I had it correct, it looked like it was about minus 3.75%, minus 3.8% this quarter, a little bit worse than last quarter, but obviously the dynamics are changing. Interest rates are declining, or benchmark interest rates and I think you fully priced in terms of your yields. Are you starting to see some alleviation in that the fair value marks might actually start getting better from here?

嗨，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。首先，只是跟進更多細節。出售貸款的公允價值標記的趨勢，如果我沒猜錯的話，看起來約為-3.75%，本季度為-3.8%，比上季度差一點，但顯然動態正在發生變化。利率或基準利率正在下降，我認為您已完全根據收益率進行定價。您是否開始看到一些緩解，因為公允價值標記實際上可能從這裡開始變得更好？

Yeah. Hey, Bill. Prices in the fourth quarter came in in line with our expectations. And under the covers, it's hard to see in that surface number. But under the covers what's happening is we are getting a recovery in the asset manager pricing together with the move down in the forward curve. But that's being offset by mix shift to more asset managers away from banks who typically paid a higher price.

是的。嘿，比爾。第四季的價格符合我們的預期。而在幕後，很難從表面數字中看到。但在幕後，我們正在看到資產管理公司定價的復甦以及遠期曲線的下降。但這種情況被更多資產管理公司的混合轉型所抵消，這些資產管理公司通常會支付更高的價格。

So that's sort of what we saw under the covers in Q4. Further movement from here, I'd say we expect the mix to be pretty stable. So further movement from here is likely going to be due to external factors, which would either be further movement in the forward curve that which could be both up or down, or people taking a more optimistic or pessimistic view on the outlook in terms of how they're stressing credit losses and returns. But otherwise, those things being equal, we feel like we're at a predictable place there.

這就是我們在第四季看到的情況。從這裡開始進一步的變化，我想說我們預計混合會相當穩定。因此，從這裡開始的進一步走勢可能是由於外部因素，這可能是遠期曲線的進一步走勢，可能向上或向下，或者人們對前景採取更樂觀或悲觀的看法他們強調信用損失和回報。但除此之外，在這些條件相同的情況下，我們感覺自己處於一個可預測的位置。

Okay. And just one follow-up on the provision $42 million approximately for the quarter. Going back to Q3, I believe there was a $10 million adjustment for 2021, $10 million for 2022. Looking at it, there's obviously some adjustments in the current quarter it looks like, but you've -- I think you've kind of articulated they were a little bit lower than what they were last period. But was there something for 2023 as well based on your prepared remarks?

好的。僅就本季約 4200 萬美元的撥款進行了後續行動。回到第三季度，我認為 2021 年調整了 1000 萬美元，2022 年調整了 1000 萬美元。看看它，本季度顯然有一些調整，但我認為你已經明確表示它們比上一季的水平要低一些。但根據您準備好的發言，2023 年是否也有一些事情？

A little bit of true-up in '23 as well as we are coming out of the quarter. But I would say pretty modest across the quarters and where we ended up. On the '23 vintage on page 16, we obviously gave the lifetime loss -- our current estimate of lifetime losses, which I'll just say it again, it's when you look at the '22 vintage, you'll see 8.9%. When you look at the '23 vintage, you also see 8.9%. But there is a lot more qualitative that is contained in the '23 vintage given it has a longer remaining life than the '22 vintage.

23 年我們已經完成了一些調整，本季也即將結束。但我想說的是，各個季度以及我們最終的結果都相當溫和。在第 16 頁的 23 年份，我們顯然給出了終生損失——我們目前對終生損失的估計，我再說一遍，當你看 22 年份時，你會看到 8.9%。當您查看 23 年年份時，您還會看到 8.9%。但 23 年份酒包含的品質要高得多，因為它的剩餘壽命比 22 年份酒更長。

Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

好的。感謝您回答我的問題。

Reggie Smith, J.P. Morgan.

雷吉史密斯，摩根大通。

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I guess kind of follow-up on the last point. I'm just curious how the '23 vintage has performed, I guess, today and how does that compare to '22? Is it better? Or it sounds like you factored in a little heavier a macro overlay, so I'm just curious if you're actually seeing better performance thus far and you just kind of cutting it looking ahead.

大家好。感謝您提出問題。我想這是最後一點的後續。我只是好奇 23 年份酒今天的表現如何，與 22 年份相比如何？好點嗎？或者聽起來你考慮了更重的巨集覆蓋，所以我很好奇到目前為止你是否真的看到了更好的性能，並且你只是在展望未來。

Yeah. So Reggie, you can at least see one of the new slides we put together in the material, I think it's page 8, gives a view into the nine month on book, at which point, we have a pretty good sense of how a vintage is going to perform and gives you the quarterly view of all of our vintages.

是的。所以，雷吉，你至少可以看到我們在材料中放在一起的一張新幻燈片，我認為它是第8 頁，可以看到書上的九個月，在這一點上，我們很好地了解了年份如何將執行並為您提供我們所有年份的季度視圖。

So what you see is we're seeing kind of stable picking up performance element on book nine, but the '23 vintages coming with a with a higher coupon. So overall, we feel pretty good about that. And as Drew just mentioned, we expect the kind of model output, if you would, ex-qualitative overlay for the '23 vintage would have a lower lifetime loss, but we do have qualitative reserves on top of that, given there's just more time left to go and there's more uncertainty. We can debate where unemployment is going, but it's a likely not staying where it is today. So that's kind of factored into those reserves.

所以你看到的是，我們在第九本書中看到了某種穩定的性能元素，但'23年份的優惠券更高。總的來說，我們對此感覺很好。正如Drew 剛才提到的，我們期望模型輸出的類型，如果你願意的話，23 年份的前定性覆蓋將具有較低的壽命損失，但除此之外我們確實有定性儲備，因為還有更多的時間剩下的事情還有更多的不確定性。我們可以討論失業率的走向，但很可能不會停留在今天的水平。因此，這已納入這些儲備中。

And then if I could sneak two more in. One, just on where losses came in, I guess versus your own internal expectations for the quarter. And then a follow-up to -- I think you guys talked about two different programs like a suite program for personal loans and like a top-up. Like how soon could those be rolled out and what would that look like in terms of, and I guess appetite for those products?

如果我能再偷偷溜進去兩個就好了。第一，我猜想與您對本季的內部預期相比，損失發生在哪裡。然後是後續行動——我想你們談到了兩個不同的計劃，例如個人貸款套件計劃和充值計劃。例如這些產品多久可以推出，這會是什麼樣子，我猜對這些產品的興趣是什麼？

Yeah, I'll maybe take the first one, which is a top-up. So that is -- I'll explain again the feature. It's basically we have -- as we've stated before, roughly half of our volume comes from repeat members. A subset of those members have paid off their first loan, or back for a second.

是的，我可能會選擇第一個，這是充值的。這就是——我將再次解釋該功能。基本上，正如我們之前所說，我們的銷量大約有一半來自回頭客。這些成員中的一部分已經還清了第一筆貸款，或者還清了第二筆貸款。

And some maybe we initially approved for a certain amount, they took less, or since they got their first loan, they've had some life event happen, whatever it is and need additional capital. That and -- in kind of prior to this feature called top-up, that would effectively be a second loan with a second payment date, and the different pricing across the two loans, all the rest.

有些人可能最初是我們批准了一定金額，但他們拿的較少，或者自從他們獲得第一筆貸款以來，他們發生了一些生活事件，無論是什麼，需要額外的資金。在這種稱為充值的功能之前，這實際上是具有第二個付款日期的第二筆貸款，以及兩筆貸款的不同定價，等等。

So all this is to the consumer, it just feels like -- it feels almost like I'm drawing down on the same line. I keep one loan, one payment date, have a single rate. So we -- that's live now. We're basically testing and working our way through the experience.

所以這一切對消費者來說，感覺就像是——感覺幾乎就像我在同一條線上畫畫。我保留一筆貸款、一個付款日期、單一利率。所以我們——現在已經上線了。我們基本上正在測試並透過我們的經驗進行工作。

But we know this is a feature that people are going to appreciate because we know how they use the product. So we expect that this it will be an important value-add on the -- to the kind of mix today. It comes at a similar kind of profile and all that for us. But for the customer, there's a real convenience benefit here.

但我們知道這是人們會欣賞的功能，因為我們知道他們如何使用該產品。因此，我們預計這將成為當今這種組合的重要增值。對我們來說，它具有類似的配置文件和所有這些。但對客戶來說，這裡確實帶來了便利。

On clean suite, that is effectively it will behave to the consumer like an installment line. What's different about it is they know the offer as they're waiting for them. So as we're moving to, as we mentioned on the call, more mobile engagement and more interaction, the ability to -- if you fast forward for us, call it towards the end of this year when we're able to show you, here's your credit card debt, looks like you've built some up, you've got an open offer for you waiting to sweep that credit card balance into what will feel like an installment loan. That's how all those things will come together.

在乾淨的套件上，這實際上對消費者來說就像分期付款線一樣。不同之處在於，他們在等待時就知道報價。因此，正如我們在電話中提到的，我們正在轉向更多的行動參與和更多的互動，如果您快轉的話，我們將在今年年底向您展示，屆時我們將能夠向您展示更多的行動參與和互動能力，這是你的信用卡債務，看起來你已經累積了一些，你有一個公開報價等待你將信用卡餘額轉為分期貸款。這就是所有這些事情將如何結合在一起的方式。

So right now, we're just, again, it's a revolving platform that's new to us. So that was a big lift to put that in and the credit will work differently because it's an open line that's permanently available. So we're going to be running that at pretty low volumes for most of this year to get ready to go. So that when the integrated experience is available, this will be part of that full experience. And this revolve product has other -- our ability to work in our revolve platform will have other future product applications for us.

所以現在，我們再次發現，這對我們來說是一個全新的旋轉平台。因此，這是一個很大的提升，而且信貸的運作方式也會有所不同，因為它是一條永久可用的開放線路。因此，我們將在今年的大部分時間以相當低的數量運行，以做好準備。因此，當整合體驗可用時，這將成為完整體驗的一部分。這款旋轉產品還有其他功能——我們在旋轉平台上工作的能力將為我們帶來其他未來的產品應用。

Hey, Reg. You'd also asked about losses and how they came in at the beginning. And it's net charge-offs came in pretty much where we expected them to come in the period. We did have a little more provision on some of the earlier vintages as we discussed, but the charge-offs are pretty much where we expected them.

嘿，雷格。您也詢問了損失以及損失一開始是如何產生的。其淨沖銷幾乎與我們在此期間的預期相同。正如我們所討論的，我們確實對一些早期年份提供了更多的準備金，但沖銷幾乎與我們預期的一樣。

Perfect. Thank you, guys.

完美的。感謝你們。

David Chiaverini, Wedbush Securities.

大衛‧基亞維里尼 (David Chiaverini)，韋德布希證券公司 (Wedbush Securities)。

Hi. Thanks for taking the questions. So the first one, I think I heard you say that the first quarter guidance is representative of what to expect for the remainder of the year. I guess first, can you confirm that? And then the follow-up is, does that contemplate relief on the capital ratio front?

你好。感謝您提出問題。所以第一個問題，我想我聽到你說第一季的指導代表了今年剩餘時間的預期。我想首先，你能確認一下嗎？接下來的問題是，這是否考慮在資本比率方面放鬆？

Yeah, so David, what we meant by that comment was the first-quarter guidance, we believe we can maintain roughly those same ranges going through the rest of the year if the environment doesn't change, right? No negative economic backdrop, no changes in the interest rate environment. So it's more of a -- we believe we've stabilized from here where PPNR in originations should be without some of the other external factors that could benefit us or harm us in one direction or the other. So I wouldn't take it as full-year guidance. It's more of just a Q1 levels are sustainable going forward without any major changes.

是的，大衛，我們所說的評論是指第一季的指導，我們相信，如果環境不發生變化，我們可以在今年剩餘時間保持大致相同的範圍，對嗎？沒有負面的經濟背景，沒有利率環境的變化。因此，我們相信我們已經從這裡穩定下來，起源中的 PPNR 應該沒有其他一些可能在一個方向或另一個方向對我們有利或傷害我們的外部因素。所以我不會將其視為全年指導。這更多的是第一季的水平是可持續的，沒有任何重大變化。

Got it. So it could be a benefit if you do get relief on the capital front.

知道了。因此，如果你確實在資本方面得到緩解，這可能是一個好處。

And then on the capital front, yes, I think the if we exit the operating agreement, then we will have more latitude to dictate where our capital levels should run at. I wouldn't expect us to come sprinting out of the gate in a wild fashion, but certainly the constraints that were there before are not the constraints now.

然後在資本方面，是的，我認為如果我們退出營運協議，那麼我們將有更多的自由度來決定我們的資本水準應該在哪裡運作。我不希望我們以狂野的方式衝出大門，但可以肯定的是，以前的限制不再是現在的限制。

Got it. And I'll ask a similar question on the interest rate backdrop. If we do get, say six Fed cuts versus a couple of Fed cuts, in what environment does LendingClub perform better in?

知道了。我會就利率背景提出類似的問題。如果我們確實得到了，例如聯準會六次降息與聯準會兩次降息，LendingClub 在什麼環境下表現更好？

Yeah, maybe -- let me start. So there's a couple of ways to think about the impact of rates on the business. And there's a couple of different rates that impact us. So versus the forward curve, the expectation of future rates when that moves, pricing to asset managers moves, right, because their funding costs come down. So you saw -- we saw that in Q4. We got a little upward drift in Q1 as well. So expectations of rates coming down will move asset manager prices up. Now at the levels that we're talking about right now that's a kind of a modest tailwind.

是的，也許——讓我開始吧。因此，有幾種方法可以考慮利率對業務的影響。有幾種不同的費率會影響我們。因此，與遠期曲線相比，當未來利率發生變化時，資產管理者的定價就會發生變化，因為他們的融資成本下降了。所以你看到了——我們在第四季度看到了這一點。我們在第一季也出現了一些向上的漂移。因此，利率下降的預期將推高資產管理公司的價格。現在，按照我們現在談論的水平，這是一種適度的順風。

The other thing -- the other rate in change that affects the business is the Fed actually moving, which should affect our cost of funds. Now depending on, again, how a 25 basis point move especially given that we are growing the balance sheet and needing to actually add deposits, isn't going to -- we're likely going to lag that. But a material move as long as it's not coming with some -- a downside on the employment outlook would be good, right? A move downward of size would be something we'd pick up. You'd see that in our NIM.

另一件事——影響業務的另一個變化率是聯準會的實際變動，這應該會影響我們的資金成本。現在，再次取決於 25 個基點的變動，特別是考慮到我們正在擴大資產負債表並需要實際增加存款，這不會——我們很可能會落後。但只要不帶來就業前景的負面影響，重大措施就很好，對吧？我們會選擇縮小規模。您會在我們的 NIM 中看到這一點。

And also a meaningful move down, I think, would create more capacity from banks, which could create a bit of a step change in pricing, right, which is if we can bring back at scale that fundamentally higher priced a better buyer for the same assets, that would be potential for a step change.

我認為，有意義的下降將為銀行創造更多的能力，這可能會在定價方面產生一些階躍變化，對吧，如果我們能夠大規模恢復價格從根本上更高的價格，那麼同樣的買家會更好資產，這將有可能發生階躍變化。

So that's how I would think about it. Small changes in expectations will be modest tailwind in prices, more meaningful changes in the Fed actually moving would affect NIM and potentially the buyer base or bigger changes in prices.

這就是我的想法。預期的微小變化將是價格的溫和推動力，而聯準會實際行動的更有意義的變化將影響淨利差，並可能影響買家基礎或價格的更大變化。

Great. Thanks for that. And last one for me is on expenses you had, and you alluded to it earlier about how you gave the expense guide excluding marketing for the fourth quarter. And maybe I missed it in your prepared remarks but are you able to give a range for the first quarter as to parameters on the expense front?

偉大的。感謝那。對我來說，最後一個是關於您的費用，您之前提到如何提供第四季度不包括行銷的費用指南。也許我在您準備好的發言中錯過了這一點，但您能否給出第一季費用方面參數的範圍？

Yeah, I think we'll probably see slight seasonal increases in expenses, but very modest as we go into Q1 and the first half of '24.

是的，我認為我們可能會看到支出略有季節性增長，但隨著進入第一季和 24 年上半年，增長幅度非常小。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Michael Perito, KBW.

邁克爾·佩里托，KBW。

Hey. Good afternoon, guys. Thanks. Only question I have left is just kind of leading of -- dovetailing off that expense question. Appreciated the kind of -- I know it's not guide, Drew, but the kind of financial outlook for the remainder of the year. Just trying to think about if the revenue environment does improve, where do the expenses follow on that?

嘿。下午好，夥計們。謝謝。我剩下的唯一問題就是與費用問題相吻合。德魯，我知道這不是指南，而是今年剩餘時間的財務前景。只是想想，如果收入環境確實改善，那麼支出會跟著來嗎？

And, Scott, in your prepared remarks. I mean, you mentioned a couple of places how you're investing maybe not the pace as you once were, but just trying to figure out what -- how those two will be linked moving forward.

史考特，在你準備好的發言中。我的意思是，你提到了幾個地方，你的投資方式可能不像以前那樣，但只是想弄清楚這兩者將如何向前發展聯繫起來。

I mean, obviously, I'm sure you guys want to be generating some operating leverage, but I imagine in a better revenue environment, there's a better pace of investment as well. So just a comment there.

我的意思是，顯然，我確信你們希望產生一些營運槓桿，但我想在更好的收入環境中，投資也會更快。所以只是在那裡發表評論。

Yeah, I mean, I think the first priority is going to be building up the balance sheet, right? As we've talked about before, we were on a transition from primarily fee-based model towards shifting towards more revenue coming off the balance sheet. That was interrupted, or the pace of that was interrupted when the rate environment suddenly shifted. We'd like to get back to that because that builds a more resilient, predictable business. So that's going to be priority number one.

是的，我的意思是，我認為首要任務是建立資產負債表，對嗎？正如我們之前談到的，我們正在從主要基於費用的模式轉向資產負債表上更多的收入。這種情況被打斷了，或者說當利率環境突然改變時，這種情況的節奏被打斷了。我們想回到這個主題，因為這會建立一個更有彈性、更可預測的業務。所以這將是第一要務。

As I think we mentioned before that as difficult as some of those personnel decisions are, there's a certain amount of just leaner operating discipline and realignment of the org that we will be holding on to. We have also -- we are also in the process of shifting some of our developments to lower-cost locations, which will be a place we can grow from at a lower cost than what we've historically had.

正如我認為我們之前提到的，儘管其中一些人事決策很困難，但我們將堅持一定程度的精簡營運紀律和組織重組。我們也正在將一些開發項目轉移到成本較低的地點，這將是我們能夠以比歷史上更低的成本實現成長的地方。

But if you think about our investments, I'd say first and foremost is going to be the balance sheet. And then when it comes to the development and the product roadmap, it's going to be -- we're going to look to do that at a lower cost than what we've done in the past.

但如果你考慮我們的投資，我想說首先也是最重要的是資產負債表。然後，當涉及開發和產品路線圖時，我們將尋求以比過去更低的成本來做到這一點。

That's helpful, Scott. Thanks. And just -- I wanted to make sure I heard something right and just ask and if you guys said it and, Drew, I can just check the transcript, but the discount rate on the personal loans, I think you mentioned it went down to 9% from 9.6%. Was that driven by execution of recent transactions, or were there other kind of rate changes? Just again, if you're repeating yourself, I apologize. But if you could just spend a second on that as well, that would be great.

這很有幫助，斯科特。謝謝。只是 - 我想確保我聽到的是正確的話，然後問一下，如果你們這麼說，德魯，我可以檢查筆錄，但個人貸款的折扣率，我想你提到過它下降到從9.6% 增至9%。這是由最近交易的執行所驅動的，還是有其他類型的利率變化？再說一次，如果你重複的話，我深感抱歉。但如果你也能花一點時間在這上面，那就太好了。

Yeah. It's a bit of a combination of the two, but I would say mostly driven by the rate environment, right? So the two-year point, which is probably the closest point to where we would index as our base rate, it was down pretty meaningfully from Q3 and Q4 and that drove most of the discount rate decrease.

是的。這有點是兩者的結合，但我想說主要是由利率環境驅動的，對吧？因此，兩年期的點，這可能是最接近我們將指數作為基準利率的點，它比第三季和第四季大幅下降，這推動了大部分貼現率的下降。

Helpful. Thank you.

有幫助。謝謝。

Thank you all for your questions. There are no questions waiting at this time. So I'll pass the conference back over to Artem Nalivayko.

謝謝大家的提問。目前沒有問題等待。因此，我將把會議轉交給 Artem Nalivayko。

All right. Thank you, Sierra. So we'd be able to take e-mail questions at this point on the call, but I believe we've already addressed the questions that have been submitted in our prepared remarks and the Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，塞拉。因此，我們現在可以在電話會議上透過電子郵件提出問題，但我相信我們已經解決了在準備好的評論和問答中提交的問題。

So with that, we will wrap up our fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings conference call. Thank you all for joining. And if you have any questions, please feel free to email ir@lendingclub.com. Thank you.

至此，我們將結束 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。感謝大家的加入。如果您有任何疑問，請隨時發送電子郵件至 ir@lendingclub.com。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。