Liberty Global Ltd (LBTYK) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Liberty's Global Fourth Quarter 2022 Investor Call. This call and the associated webcast are the property of Liberty Global, and any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call or webcast in any form without the express written consent, Liberty Global is strictly prohibited.

早上好，女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 Liberty 2022 年第四季度全球投資者電話會議。此電話和相關網絡廣播是 Liberty Global 的財產，未經 Liberty Global 明確書面同意，嚴禁以任何形式重新分發、轉發或轉播此電話或網絡廣播。

(Operator Instructions) Today's formal presentation materials can be found under the Investor Relations section of Liberty Global's website at libertyglobal.com. After today's formal presentation, instructions will be given for a question-and-answer session. Page 2 of the slides details the company's safe harbor statement regarding forward-looking statements. Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including the company's expectations with respect to outlook and future growth prospects and other information and statements that are not historical fact.

（操作員說明）今天的正式演示材料可以在 Liberty Global 網站 libertyglobal.com 的投資者關係部分找到。在今天的正式演講之後，將進行問答環節的說明。幻燈片的第 2 頁詳細介紹了公司關於前瞻性陳述的安全港聲明。今天的演示文稿可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述，包括公司對前景和未來增長前景的預期以及非歷史事實的其他信息和陳述。

These forward-looking statements involve certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. The risks include those detailed in Liberty Global's filings with Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recent filed forms 10-K and 10-Q as amended. Liberty Global disclaims any obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements to reflect any change in its expectations or in the conditions of which any such statement is based.

這些前瞻性陳述涉及某些風險，可能導致實際結果與這些陳述明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。這些風險包括 Liberty Global 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳述的風險，包括其最近提交的經修訂的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格。 Liberty Global 不承擔更新任何這些前瞻性陳述以反映其預期或任何此類陳述所依據的條件的任何變化的義務。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mike Fries. You may now proceed.

我現在想把電話轉給 Mike Fries。你現在可以繼續了。

Okay. Welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining our year-end results call. I hope you're all doing well. As usual, we have some prepared remarks that Charlie and I will manage and then we'll get right to your questions. And for that, I'll bring in my key leaders who will be ready to respond as needed. We're working off slides as we usually do, and they contain quite a bit of good information this time.

好的。歡迎大家，並感謝您加入我們的年終業績電話會議。我希望你們一切都好。像往常一樣，我們有一些準備好的評論，查理和我將負責處理，然後我們將直接回答您的問題。為此，我將召集我的主要領導，他們將準備好根據需要做出回應。我們像往常一樣處理幻燈片，這次它們包含了很多有用的信息。

So we'll assume you've got those in front of you or you'll access them at some point. Just a warning, this is our year-end call, so there's a bit more information than usual, but bear with us, we'll try to keep it crisp. I'll begin on Slide 3 with some highlights for the quarter and the full year. And I have to start by saying that I'm extremely proud of my team in each of our operating businesses for how they executed through a challenging year. And just when we thought things were getting better, Europe was hit with a war in Ukraine, rising energy costs, record inflation and cost of living crisis that impacted customers really across the region.

因此，我們假設您已經將它們放在您面前，或者您將在某個時候訪問它們。只是一個警告，這是我們的年終電話會議，所以信息比平時多一點，但請耐心等待，我們會盡量保持清晰。我將從幻燈片 3 開始，介紹本季度和全年的一些亮點。我必須首先說，我為我們每個運營業務中的團隊感到非常自豪，因為他們在充滿挑戰的一年中表現出色。就在我們認為事情正在好轉的時候，歐洲遭受了烏克蘭戰爭、能源成本上升、創紀錄的通貨膨脹和生活成本危機的打擊，這些危機真正影響了整個地區的客戶。

But despite these headwinds, we hit or exceeded all 16 guidance metrics for our big FMC operating companies that we established a year ago, and we beat our forecast for distributable cash flow at the Liberty Global level by $100 million, and that's using guidance FX. So this is the third year in a row that we were faced with external uncertainty but still managed to deliver on our public targets.

但是，儘管存在這些不利因素，我們還是達到或超過了我們一年前成立的大型 FMC 運營公司的所有 16 項指導指標，並且我們在 Liberty Global 層面的可分配現金流超出了 1 億美元的預測，這是使用 FX 指導。因此，這是我們連續第三年面臨外部不確定性，但仍設法實現了我們的公共目標。

Second and perhaps not surprisingly, Q4 was a very strong quarter for us across the board. We delivered positive broadband and postpaid additions in every market, fueled by convergence offerings and Black Friday campaigns. And our largest operation, Virgin Media, O2 delivered their best financial result yet with a double-digit EBITDA growth figures supported by price adjustments, synergies and net adds.

其次，也許並不奇怪，第四季度對我們來說是一個非常強勁的季度。在融合產品和黑色星期五活動的推動下，我們在每個市場都提供了積極的寬帶和後付費服務。我們最大的運營商 Virgin Media、O2 在價格調整、協同效應和淨增加的支持下實現了兩位數的 EBITDA 增長數據，這是迄今為止最好的財務業績。

And then third, we continue to benefit from consistent and steady revenue growth in our 3 most important segments, which are B2B, broadband and mobile. And just as importantly, we're actively addressing headwinds in our B2C fixed businesses more broadly with smart network and product innovation, and I'll dig into both of these topics in a moment.

第三，我們繼續受益於 B2B、寬帶和移動這 3 個最重要的細分市場持續穩定的收入增長。同樣重要的是，我們正在通過智能網絡和產品創新更廣泛地積極應對 B2C 固定業務中的不利因素，稍後我將深入探討這兩個主題。

And then fourth, we've maintained a clear and consistent approach to capital allocation. In 2022, we bought back 40% more stock than we guided to, a total of $1.7 billion or 14% of the shares outstanding. And we're on track for at least another 10% this year. And in a few slides, I'll expand a bit on how we see our capital allocation framework going forward.

第四，我們一直保持清晰一致的資本配置方法。 2022 年，我們回購的股票比預期多 40%，總計 17 億美元，佔已發行股票的 14%。今年我們有望至少再增加 10%。在幾張幻燈片中，我將詳細介紹我們如何看待未來的資本配置框架。

And then finally, I'll let Charlie cover the details of our guidance, but I'll just highlight upfront that despite continued investment in fiber, 5G and digital, this year, we expect to generate another $1.6 billion in distributable cash flow in 2023. So a strong year for us operationally and financially. And as we'll discuss in a moment, we're well positioned to drive value for shareholders moving forward. Slide 4 is our standard schedule showing connectivity trends for our 4 large FMC telcos over the last 5 quarters. One quick observation is that for the first time in over 5 years, every market experienced positive broadband and postpaid mobile ads in the fourth quarter.

最後，我將讓 Charlie 詳細介紹我們的指導意見，但我只是預先強調，儘管我們在光纖、5G 和數字領域繼續投資，但今年我們預計 2023 年將再產生 16 億美元的可分配現金流. 所以對我們來說，在運營和財務上都是強勁的一年。正如我們稍後將要討論的那樣，我們已做好充分準備，為股東向前發展創造價值。幻燈片 4 是我們的標準時間表，顯示了過去 5 個季度我們 4 家大型 FMC 電信公司的連接趨勢。一個快速的觀察是，5 年來第一次，每個市場在第四季度都出現了積極的寬帶和後付費移動廣告。

The top left shows VMO2 which has delivered 3 straight quarters of sequential growth in both broadband and postpaid net adds despite intense competition and the cost of living pressures in the U.K. Broadband speed upgrades together with strong momentum from our Volt bundle, drove our best broadband quarter of the year. By the way, we outperformed BT again, and we garnered an even higher share of national gross adds than we did a year ago.

左上角顯示 VMO2，儘管競爭激烈，英國的生活成本壓力很大，但寬帶和後付費淨增加量連續 3 個季度連續增長寬帶速度升級加上我們 Volt 捆綁包的強勁勢頭，推動了我們最好的寬帶季度的一年。順便說一句，我們的表現再次超過英國電信，而且我們在全國總收入中的份額比一年前更高。

Q4 also saw strong pickup in postpaid net adds in what is always an important trading period for mobile. And the O2 brand continues to perform very well, especially at the top end of the market with sector-leading churn well below 1%. Now Sunrise in Switzerland also had a strong fourth quarter with 53,000 broadband and postpaid adds. Importantly, after 2 quarters of losses in Switzerland, we delivered positive broadband growth, helped by a strong Black Friday period, focus on 1 gigabit offers and a new Netflix bundle we put into the market. This was a particularly good performance given the continued higher churn we've experienced related to the UPC brand migration that we flagged really mid-year last year.

第 4 季度還看到了後付費淨增加的強勁回升，這對移動設備來說一直是一個重要的交易時期。 O2 品牌繼續表現出色，尤其是在高端市場，其客戶流失率遠低於 1%，處於行業領先地位。現在，瑞士的 Sunrise 第四季度也表現強勁，增加了 53,000 名寬帶和後付費用戶。重要的是，在瑞士經歷了兩個季度的虧損之後，我們在強勁的黑色星期五期間實現了正寬帶增長，專注於 1 千兆位產品和我們投放市場的新 Netflix 捆綁包。這是一個特別好的表現，因為我們經歷了與我們去年年中真正標記的 UPC 品牌遷移相關的持續更高的流失。

Now in postpaid, Sunrise delivered another strong quarter, with 34,000 adds supported by the Sunrise brand refresh and interestingly, our SwissSki sponsorship, which is off to a great start, now that the ski season is fully underway. After 9 quarters of broadband losses, Vodafone Ziggo delivered 7,000 net adds in Q4, in part supported by its Ziggo Sprinter and Black Friday campaigns. Look the Dutch market remains highly competitive with price and quality of service now becoming more important than fiber when you look at customer churn. Incidentally, KPN lost broadband subs in the quarter. VodafoneZiggo's 26,000 postpaid adds were negatively impacted by the loss of some corporate accounts, but were still higher than KPN in the quarter. It's also interesting that T-Mobile took some pricing in January, up 9%. And then finally, Telenet added 13,000 broadband and postpaid ads which was largely consistent with prior periods, and postpaid mobile ads were steady, supported by their bundles and it's really strong performance from the base brand. So solid execution across all of our markets in broadband and mobile.

現在在後付費中，Sunrise 又一個強勁的季度，Sunrise 品牌更新支持了 34,000 次增加，有趣的是，我們的 SwissSki 贊助有了一個良好的開端，現在滑雪季節已經全面展開。在經歷了 9 個季度的寬帶損失後，Vodafone Ziggo 在第四季度實現了 7,000 的淨增長，這在一定程度上得益於其 Ziggo Sprinter 和黑色星期五活動。看看荷蘭市場仍然競爭激烈，當您查看客戶流失時，價格和服務質量現在變得比光纖更重要。順便說一句，KPN 在本季度失去了寬帶用戶。 VodafoneZiggo 的 26,000 後付費增加受到部分公司賬戶流失的負面影響，但該季度仍高於 KPN。同樣有趣的是，T-Mobile 在 1 月份進行了一些定價，上漲了 9%。最後，Telenet 添加了 13,000 個寬帶和後付費廣告，這與之前的時期基本一致，後付費移動廣告在其捆綁包的支持下保持穩定，而且基本品牌的表現非常強勁。我們在寬帶和移動領域的所有市場都執行得如此穩固。

And Slide 5 is also becoming a standard chart for us, showing revenue growth across the 4 main FMC Opcos and then broken down by revenue segment. So there's 5 key takeaways here. First, if you look at the total revenue growth for each FMC Opco, you'll see that revenue remained resilient with broadly stable to positive trends across the group. As you move down the chart, however, you'll see that consumer fixed revenue as a whole is consistently negative from negative 1% and negative 4%. And that's impacted by losses in video and voice RGUs, something you're well aware of as well as pressure on ARPUs and mix during this cost of living crisis.

Slide 5 也正在成為我們的標準圖表，顯示 4 個主要 FMC Opcos 的收入增長，然後按收入細分。所以這裡有 5 個要點。首先，如果您查看每個 FMC Opco 的總收入增長，您會發現收入保持彈性，整個集團總體呈穩定到積極的趨勢。然而，當您向下移動圖表時，您會看到消費者固定收入作為一個整體一直是負數，從負 1% 到負 4%。這受到視頻和語音 RGU 損失的影響，你很清楚這一點，以及在這場生活成本危機期間 ARPU 和混合的壓力。

But interestingly, while we continue to lose video subs at a rate, 1/3 of what's happening in the U.S., video is now only about 15% of our revenue. I'll spend a moment on how we're addressing the headwinds in fixed on the next slide. Now embedded in this fixed B2C result are broadband revenues, which continue to grow, albeit modestly and will increasingly become a larger and larger part of the fixed consumer story in every market.

但有趣的是，雖然我們繼續以美國 1/3 的速度流失視頻訂閱者，但視頻現在僅占我們收入的 15% 左右。在下一張幻燈片中，我將花點時間討論我們如何解決不利因素。現在嵌入在固定 B2C 結果中的是寬帶收入，它繼續增長，儘管增長幅度不大，但將越來越成為每個市場固定消費者故事中越來越大的一部分。

And then third, revenue growth in consumer mobile is all green across the board, driven largely by service revenue, which is growing 2% to 4% across the group. This is a function of strong postpaid additions, of course, and price adjustments through the year. And then fourth, B2B remains a growth engine across all assets with revenue increasing 1.5% to 4% and significant upside as we expand our reach and market share.

第三，消費者移動業務的收入增長全面呈綠色，這主要是由服務收入推動的，整個集團的收入增長了 2% 至 4%。當然，這是強大的後付費增加和全年價格調整的結果。第四，B2B 仍然是所有資產的增長引擎，隨著我們擴大業務範圍和市場份額，收入增長 1.5% 至 4% 並有顯著上升空間。

And then finally, as the pie charts at the bottom make clear, we have a highly diverse and arguably defensive revenue mix with mobile, both B2C and B2B, now representing almost half of our turnover and B2B itself comprising 20% to 25% of revenue. Slide 6 dives a bit deeper into our fixed consumer business and how we're addressing some of the headwinds today. I'll start by showing fixed ARPU trends on the top left, which as you can see, have been relatively stable in Belgium and Holland even slightly up with both markets bidding down price rise as well and dealing with limited front-book, back-book dynamics.

最後，正如底部的餅圖所示，我們擁有高度多樣化且可以說具有防禦性的移動收入組合，包括 B2C 和 B2B，現在幾乎占我們營業額的一半，而 B2B 本身佔收入的 20% 至 25% .幻燈片 6 更深入地探討了我們的固定消費者業務，以及我們如何應對當今的一些不利因素。我將首先在左上角顯示固定的 ARPU 趨勢，如您所見，比利時和荷蘭的 ARPU 趨勢相對穩定，甚至略有上升，這兩個市場也在壓低價格上漲，並處理有限的前台、後台-圖書動態。

In the U.K., in Switzerland, however, we've seen around a 3% decline in fixed ARPU related partly to the fact that we start with fairly higher ARPUs in each market, and then that's compounded in the U.K. by declining video, voice and cost of living pressures. And then Switzerland, as we discussed, we're managing through a migration from UPC to Sunrise, which has impacted ARPU. So what are we doing here? First of all, we're taking price increases on fixed. You know that, around 14% in the U.K. and mid-single digit in Belgium and Holland, and those are outlined on the bottom left, you can see what we've done.

然而，在英國和瑞士，我們看到固定 ARPU 下降了約 3%，部分原因是我們從每個市場的 ARPU 開始時都相當高，然後在英國由於視頻、語音和生活成本壓力。然後是瑞士，正如我們所討論的那樣，我們正在管理從 UPC 到 Sunrise 的遷移，這影響了 ARPU。那麼我們在這裡做什麼？首先，我們將固定價格上漲。你知道，在英國大約有 14%，在比利時和荷蘭只有中個位數，這些在左下角有概述，你可以看到我們所做的。

Secondly, we're implementing a number of commercial initiatives that are critical here. By far, the most important is our broad convergence strategy, which, as we've demonstrated, helps improve churn, NPS and cross-sell opportunities. We've talked about it before in Holland. FMC households have, on average, 20 points higher NPS and 50% less churn. These are real theoretical benefits to the fixed base as we converge. We've also invested significant effort into integrating streaming apps into our video platforms. Netflix, for example, is bundled in just about every market, and we're increasingly able to add these subscriptions to our bill.

其次，我們正在實施一些在這里至關重要的商業計劃。到目前為止，最重要的是我們廣泛的融合戰略，正如我們所證明的那樣，它有助於改善客戶流失、NPS 和交叉銷售機會。我們之前在荷蘭談過這個。 FMC 家庭的 NPS 平均高出 20 個百分點，流失率降低 50%。當我們收斂時，這些對於固定基地來說是真正的理論上的好處。我們還投入了大量精力將流媒體應用程序集成到我們的視頻平台中。例如，Netflix 幾乎在每個市場都捆綁銷售，而且我們越來越能夠將這些訂閱添加到我們的賬單中。

We're also focused on rolling out all IP and at first video devices across our markets. In the U.K., for example, we're now adding video subscribers, not losing video subscribers actually adding video subscribers in January as a result of our StreamTV launch. And then our investments in digital are reducing friction and cost in the fixed consumer business. The tools we're rolling out are driving more online sales, reducing call center interactions, improving self-install rates and driving cross-sell opportunities.

我們還專注於在我們的市場推出所有 IP 和視頻設備。例如，在英國，我們現在正在增加視頻訂閱者，而不是失去視頻訂閱者，實際上，由於我們的 StreamTV 發布，我們在 1 月份增加了視頻訂閱者。然後我們在數字方面的投資正在減少固定消費者業務的摩擦和成本。我們推出的工具正在推動更多在線銷售、減少呼叫中心交互、提高自安裝率和推動交叉銷售機會。

And then finally, we're making good progress on new revenue streams. And these include things like home security or telehealth and energy. We've rolled out products just like this in most markets, and we intend to continue to take advantage of our customer relationships and digital platforms to widen our revenue lens and find new areas of growth. Certainly, a significant part of our plans to keep growing broadband and improving our fixed consumer business relates to our fixed network investment strategies in every market which we provide an update on in Slide 7.

最後，我們在新的收入來源方面取得了良好進展。這些包括家庭安全或遠程醫療和能源等。我們已經在大多數市場推出了這樣的產品，我們打算繼續利用我們的客戶關係和數字平台來擴大我們的收入範圍並尋找新的增長領域。當然，我們保持寬帶增長和改善固定消費者業務的計劃的很大一部分與我們在每個市場的固定網絡投資戰略有關，我們在幻燈片 7 中提供了更新。

It's also important to remind folks that we are the broadband leader today in Europe with over 31 million gigabit homes ready for service. And just as importantly, we have a clear path to 10 gigabit speeds in every market with mostly creative structures, really creative structures that will ensure we're optimizing CapEx intensity. So the chart on the bottom left shows you that by 2028, we'll be 70% fiber to the home across what will then be a 36 million home footprint. Now that excludes whole buy arrangements in markets like Switzerland and Ireland that add another 4 million fiber homes takes us to 40 million and brings that fiber percentage to 75%.

同樣重要的是要提醒人們，我們是當今歐洲的寬帶領導者，擁有超過 3100 萬個千兆位家庭已準備好提供服務。同樣重要的是，我們在每個市場都有一條通往 10 Gb 速度的清晰路徑，其中大部分具有創造性結構，真正具有創造性的結構將確保我們優化資本支出強度。所以左下角的圖表顯示，到 2028 年，我們將有 70% 的光纖到戶，屆時家庭足跡將達到 3600 萬。現在不包括瑞士和愛爾蘭等市場的整體購買安排，這些安排又增加了 400 萬戶光纖家庭，使我們達到 4000 萬，並使光纖百分比達到 75%。

So we could be as many as 40 million homes by 2028. That's good organic greenfield growth. And our plans to get there are summarized on the right. You're familiar with our approach in the U.K. We added or upgraded 1 million fiber homes in 2022, and that will accelerate by at least 50% in 2023. Again, most of that CapEx, especially the new build CapEx is being invested through our JV with Telefónica and InfraVia so off balance sheet. In Belgium, we've announced the deal with Fluvius, you're aware of that to build fiber across Flanders in a Netco-Servco structure that you close this summer.

因此，到 2028 年，我們可能擁有多達 4000 萬戶家庭。這是良好的有機綠地增長。右邊總結了我們實現目標的計劃。您熟悉我們在英國的方法。我們在 2022 年增加或升級了 100 萬個光纖家庭，到 2023 年將至少加速 50%。同樣，大部分資本支出，尤其是新建資本支出，都是通過我們的投資與 Telefónica 和 InfraVia 的合資企業因此不在資產負債表內。在比利時，我們宣布了與 Fluvius 的交易，你知道在今年夏天關閉的 Netco-Servco 結構中在法蘭德斯建造光纖。

And in the meantime, we've agreed a reciprocal wholesale access deal with Orange that ensures that Telenet is the undisputed leader in the North with 70% plus utilization and also capable of entering the South. We completed our 1 gig upgrade in Holland last year. And in Switzerland, as you know, we're going to use a hybrid approach with DOCSIS fiber and wholebuy. And then finally, Ireland will be our first market to launch wholesale services on our own fiber network in 2023 and that's after announcing a wholesale agreement with Vodafone. So we have a sound and we think efficient set of plans in every market to remain the speed and quality leader in fixed connectivity, and you should expect that we'll keep you posted on progress here every quarter.

與此同時，我們已經與 Orange 達成互惠批發接入協議，確保 Telenet 是北方無可爭議的領導者，利用率超過 70%，並且能夠進入南方。我們去年在荷蘭完成了我們的 1 gig 升級。在瑞士，如您所知，我們將使用 DOCSIS 光纖和 wholebuy 的混合方法。最後，愛爾蘭將成為我們在 2023 年在我們自己的光纖網絡上推出批發服務的第一個市場，這是在宣布與沃達丰達成批發協議之後。因此，我們有一套合理且我們認為在每個市場都有效的計劃，以保持固定連接速度和質量的領先地位，你應該期待我們每個季度都會在這裡向你通報進展情況。

Now moving to Slide 8. We decided to hit the valuation question head on this quarter. So if you back off and squint your eyes a little bit, this might look like a complicated slide, but it's really quite simple. The purpose here is to help decipher the valuation gap in our stock a bit and focusing on our FMC Opco. So one way to look at our current market valuation is to break it down into 3 parts as we've done on the left side of the chart.

現在轉到幻燈片 8。我們決定在本季度解決估值問題。所以如果你退後一步，稍微瞇起眼睛，這可能看起來像一張復雜的幻燈片，但它真的很簡單。這裡的目的是幫助破譯我們股票的估值差距，並關注我們的 FMC Opco。因此，查看我們當前市場估值的一種方法是將其分為 3 個部分，就像我們在圖表左側所做的那樣。

So assuming full value for our cash balance and our ventures portfolio, the implied valuation of our FMC Opcos at the $21 price level is roughly 5.5x EBITDA and around 13x operating free cash flow using our actual and reported figures for 2022. By the way, cash is cash, and our venture investments are conservatively marked. They're held in very tax efficient structures and we've already returned over $500 million to the parent. Interestingly, the free cash flow yield at $21 once you reduce the market cap by ventures and cash is well over 30%. Now moving to the middle of the slide, the analyst community has an average price target on our stock of $30. That implies a 40% premium to our current market price of $21 to running the same math and attributing all of that premium to the FMC telcos resulted in an EBITDA multiple of around 6.5 and an operating free cash flow multiple of about 14.5.

因此，假設我們的現金餘額和風險投資組合的全部價值，使用我們 2022 年的實際和報告數據，我們 FMC Opcos 在 21 美元價格水平下的隱含估值約為 5.5 倍 EBITDA 和約 13 倍運營自由現金流。順便說一下，現金就是現金，我們的風險投資是保守標記的。它們以非常節稅的結構持有，我們已經向母公司返還了超過 5 億美元。有趣的是，一旦你通過風險投資和現金降低市值，自由現金流收益率為 21 美元，遠遠超過 30%。現在轉到幻燈片的中間，分析師社區對我們股票的平均目標價為 30 美元。這意味著我們當前的市場價格 21 美元溢價 40% 以運行相同的數學並將所有溢價歸因於 FMC 電信公司導致 EBITDA 倍數約為 6.5 和運營自由現金流倍數約為 14.5。

By the way, our peer group trades between 6.5 and 7.5 and some as high as 8.5x EBITDA. The free cash flow yield at $30, by the way, is still compelling at around 15%. So while our peers would be really mid- to high single digits. And the analysts correctly cite in our view, a handful of narratives to support their price targets, right? And this includes things like telco sector tailwinds in Europe where we can now have pricing power. Market rationalization and mobile revenue growth and regulatory relief, and we agree with that. But their arguments also typically include 3 other drivers like the benefits we're realizing from a sub base that is now 50% converged, or the expectation of continued and on-target synergy realization in the U.K. and Switzerland and the inherent free cash flow profile of our businesses, especially given that we believe we're in a peak CapEx period right now.

順便說一句，我們的同行組交易在 6.5 到 7.5 之間，有些高達 8.5 倍 EBITDA。順便說一句，30 美元的自由現金流收益率仍保持在 15% 左右，極具吸引力。因此，雖然我們的同行真的是中高個位數。在我們看來，分析師正確地引用了一些支持其價格目標的敘述，對嗎？這包括歐洲電信行業的順風，我們現在可以在那裡擁有定價權。市場合理化、移動收入增長和監管放鬆，我們同意這一點。但他們的論點通常還包括其他 3 個驅動因素，例如我們從現在 50% 融合的子基地中實現的好處，或者在英國和瑞士實現持續和目標協同效應的預期以及固有的自由現金流狀況我們的業務，特別是考慮到我們認為我們現在正處於資本支出高峰期。

So I guess the message is that $30 doesn't seem like a big stretch to us. One of the reasons is that we don't believe analysts have captured all of the drivers that, in our view, support a premium market valuation. We don't specifically quantify what a premium market price looks like. Our lawyers wouldn't let us do that but we do identify the key elements that should support values well above our stock price and perhaps even twice the analyst price target. And those are summarized on the right-hand side of the slide. To begin with, we have been on the receiving end, as most of you know, of 6 private market transactions in the last 6 years where EBITDA multiples were as high as 12 and OFCF multiples exceeded 20.

所以我猜想傳達的信息是，30 美元對我們來說似乎不是一個很大的負擔。原因之一是我們不相信分析師已經掌握了我們認為支持溢價市場估值的所有驅動因素。我們沒有具體量化溢價市場價格是什麼樣的。我們的律師不會讓我們這樣做，但我們確實確定了應該支持遠高於我們股價甚至可能是分析師價格目標兩倍的價值的關鍵因素。這些總結在幻燈片的右側。首先，正如你們大多數人所知，我們在過去 6 年中接受了 6 筆私人市場交易，其中 EBITDA 倍數高達 12，OCFF 倍數超過 20。

Now admittedly, synergies did factor into some of those valuations, but these were subscale cable TV operations, not fully converged FMC champions. You can run your own numbers. But in today's environment, we believe 8 to 10x EBITDA and 18 to 20x operating free cash flow are not unrealistic multiples and are based -- if you look at historical transactions for high-quality FMC businesses in Europe. In addition, there are a handful of other value drivers that we believe would support a premium valuation that analysts don't cover. First, we've gone to great lengths to build true national champions that are shaping the market structure in every country we operate in. Secondly, we have embedded infrastructure upside in the form of towers as well as our fiber networks, that's not recognized. Third, we're only beginning to realize now the benefits from new revenue streams like security, gaming and telehealth, all of which we've launched.

現在不可否認，協同效應確實影響了其中一些估值，但這些都是小型有線電視業務，而不是完全融合的 FMC 冠軍。你可以運行你自己的數字。但在今天的環境中，我們認為 8 到 10 倍的 EBITDA 和 18 到 20 倍的運營自由現金流並不是不切實際的倍數，而且是基於——如果你看看歐洲高質量 FMC 企業的歷史交易。此外，我們認為還有一些其他價值驅動因素會支持分析師未涵蓋的溢價估值。首先，我們竭盡全力打造真正的全國冠軍，這些冠軍正在塑造我們開展業務的每個國家/地區的市場結構。其次，我們以塔的形式嵌入基礎設施以及我們的光纖網絡，這是不被認可的。第三，我們現在才剛剛開始意識到安全、遊戲和遠程醫療等新收入來源的好處，我們已經推出了所有這些。

And finally, we are arguably at peak CapEx levels this year, which will result obviously in even greater long-term cash conversion. We add to this equation, our unique approach to value creation that relies on agile capital allocation, the leveraged but derisked balance sheet and the commitment to buybacks, you've got a winning combination. So building on that last point about our levered equity model, Slide 9 digs a bit deeper into our capital allocation framework, and we know this differentiates us from our peers. It all begins with shareholder remuneration, which we show graphically on the left-hand side of the slide.

最後，我們可以說今年的資本支出處於峰值水平，這顯然會導致更大的長期現金轉換。我們在這個等式中添加了我們獨特的價值創造方法，該方法依賴於靈活的資本分配、槓桿化但風險降低的資產負債表以及回購承諾，您將獲得一個成功的組合。因此，在關於我們的槓桿股權模型的最後一點的基礎上，幻燈片 9 更深入地挖掘了我們的資本配置框架，我們知道這使我們有別於同行。這一切都始於股東薪酬，我們在幻燈片的左側以圖形方式顯示了這一點。

As you know, we've now retired over 50% of the shares in the last 6 years, averaging 11% per year. And in 2022, we exceeded our initial buyback authorization, as I mentioned, by 40%, buying 14% of the shares and returning all distributable cash flow, $1.7 billion to shareholders. Now for 2023, we remain committed to the 10% buyback floor again, and we are well underway there.

如您所知，在過去 6 年中，我們已經退役了 50% 以上的股份，平均每年退役 11%。到 2022 年，正如我提到的，我們超出了最初的回購授權 40%，購買了 14% 的股份，並將所有可分配現金流返還給股東，即 17 億美元。現在到 2023 年，我們再次致力於 10% 的回購底線，我們正在順利進行。

On the right-hand side, we try to put the buyback into context. If you look at our overall capital allocation framework, we have 3 principal sources of cash, right? Of course, we start with our existing cash balance at the corporate level of $3.4 billion and the modest interest we earn on that before investments. Then you add the $1.6 billion of distributable cash flow that we receive from our operating companies that we just guided to, which includes recaps. And then finally, we expect cash proceeds. That's the bottom line from the sale of venture investments in noncore assets over time. Now we're clearly a cash-generative business. So where do we invest that capital?

在右側，我們嘗試將回購置於上下文中。如果你看一下我們的整體資本配置框架，我們有 3 個主要的現金來源，對嗎？當然，我們從公司層面現有的 34 億美元現金餘額和投資前從中賺取的微薄利息開始。然後你加上我們從我們剛剛指導的運營公司收到的 16 億美元可分配現金流量，其中包括回顧。最後，我們期待現金收益。這是隨著時間的推移出售非核心資產風險投資的底線。現在我們顯然是一個現金生成業務。那麼我們在哪裡投資這些資本呢？

First, as you would expect, we do prioritize our networks. So our fiber and 5G investments are important to us at the company level. None of that PP&E is funded out of our cash balance since we generate free cash flow at the Opco level, but we mention it since it does impact the amount of distributable cash flow we receive and therefore, it is a capital allocation decision. And as I mentioned on the previous slide, we see ourselves right now at peak levels of capital intensity. By far, the largest use of cash is directed towards our buyback programs, where we've allocated over $12 billion since January '17, and we are committed to this strategy again this year. From time to time, we will allocate capital to our FMC opcos for strategic transactions that create value.

首先，如您所料，我們確實優先考慮我們的網絡。因此，我們的光纖和 5G 投資在公司層面對我們很重要。由於我們在 Opco 層面產生自由現金流，因此這些 PP&E 都沒有從我們的現金餘額中獲得資金，但我們提到它是因為它確實會影響我們收到的可分配現金流量，因此，這是一項資本配置決策。正如我在上一張幻燈片中提到的，我們現在看到自己處於資本密集度的最高水平。到目前為止，最大的現金用途是用於我們的回購計劃，自 17 年 1 月以來，我們已經在該計劃中分配了超過 120 億美元，今年我們將再次致力於這一戰略。我們會不時將資金分配給我們的 FMC opcos，用於創造價值的戰略交易。

A good example of this is the next fiber JV in the U.K. or even the acquisition of Sunrise. And then finally, we have been building a sizable portfolio of strategically aligned assets in tech, media and infrastructure. Now building on this last point of investing capital into strategically aligned assets, we thought it would make sense to provide a bit more background on our current portfolio of investments and how we intend to manage this part of our business going forward.

一個很好的例子是英國的下一個光纖合資企業，甚至是對 Sunrise 的收購。最後，我們一直在技術、媒體和基礎設施領域建立一個規模可觀的戰略資產組合。現在，基於將資本投資到戰略一致資產的最後一點，我們認為提供更多關於我們當前投資組合的背景以及我們打算如何管理我們未來這部分業務的背景是有意義的。

If you look at the top of Slide 10, on the left-hand side of my last slide, you'll see a familiar chart that breaks down the $3.1 billion ventures portfolio into principally tech content and infrastructure and then a few notes beneath that on how that value moved modestly in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, we're not coming up with these values on our own. We use a Big 4 accounting firm to provide an independent assessment of value on an annual basis. Then in the 3 boxes on the top right, we highlight some really important updates that we thought you should be aware of.

如果你看一下幻燈片 10 的頂部，在我上一張幻燈片的左側，你會看到一張熟悉的圖表，它將 31 億美元的風險投資組合分解為主要的技術內容和基礎設施，然後在其下方的一些註釋該價值在第四季度如何溫和變動。提醒一下，我們並不是自己提出這些價值觀的。我們聘請四大會計師事務所每年提供一次獨立的價值評估。然後在右上角的 3 個框中，我們突出顯示了一些我們認為您應該知道的非常重要的更新。

First, we have 60-plus investments in our tech portfolio. 5 of those investments, 5 companies today represent about 75% of the value. And we've listed them here for your reference. Three of these are companies that provide innovative cloud-based solutions, Plume you know well and Bitsight is a cybersecurity business. Our net investment in these 5 companies is about $100 million, and they are conservatively valued today at $700 million.

首先，我們對我們的技術組合進行了 60 多項投資。這些投資中有 5 家，即 5 家公司，如今約佔價值的 75%。我們將它們列在這裡供您參考。其中三個是提供創新的基於雲的解決方案的公司，您熟悉的 Plume 和 Bitsight 是一家網絡安全公司。我們對這 5 家公司的淨投資約為 1 億美元，今天的保守估值為 7 億美元。

Importantly, each of these companies is currently doing or planning to do business with our FMC opcos, and that's part of the flywheel we provide investee companies. And quite frankly, why our pipeline of deals is so robust. The bottom line is that our Tech Ventures team has an 8-year track record of making money in strategically aligned product service and technology companies and has already returned $500 million to the parent.

重要的是，這些公司中的每一個目前都在或計劃與我們的 FMC opcos 開展業務，這是我們為被投資公司提供的飛輪的一部分。坦率地說，為什麼我們的交易渠道如此強大。最重要的是，我們的 Tech Ventures 團隊擁有 8 年在戰略一致的產品服務和技術公司中賺錢的記錄，並且已經向母公司返還了 5 億美元。

Next, you'll also see our 3 largest infrastructure investments. AtlasEdge, our 50-50 JV with Digital Bridge, the Edge Connect data center business where we are a 5% shareholder with EQT. And the next 5 are the JV I have discussed already with Telefónica and InfraVia, that's going to build 5 million to 7 million fiber homes in the U.K. In each case here, we are using either existing opco assets or our strategic position in a market to create and benefit from these infrastructure platforms.

接下來，您還將看到我們的 3 大基礎設施投資。 AtlasEdge，我們與 Digital Bridge 的 50-50 合資企業，Edge Connect 數據中心業務，我們是 EQT 5% 的股東。接下來的 5 個是我已經與 Telefónica 和 InfraVia 討論過的合資企業，它將在英國建造 500 萬到 700 萬個光纖家庭。在每個案例中，我們都在利用現有的 opco 資產或我們在市場中的戰略地位來創建這些基礎設施平台並從中受益。

It's also important to point out that these figures do not include our tower assets in markets like the U.K. and NL, which we own through joint ventures. And then on the far right, we've provided just a few bullets on the announced Vodafone investment. I'm not sure there's much to add to what we've said publicly. We do think the stock is undervalued, and there are a handful of near-term catalysts that should be beneficial. We've also put in place a very clever structure, which minimize the amount of equity we had to put up while protecting our downside. By the way, there is no scenario where we would have to invest further capital beyond the relatively low cost of borrowing, which is partially offset by dividends.

同樣重要的是要指出，這些數字不包括我們通過合資企業在英國和荷蘭等市場擁有的塔式資產。然後在最右邊，我們只提供了一些關於已宣布的沃達丰投資的要點。我不確定我們公開發表的內容還有什麼要補充的。我們確實認為該股被低估了，並且有一些短期催化劑應該是有益的。我們還建立了一個非常聰明的結構，它最大限度地減少了我們必須投入的股本數量，同時保護了我們的不利因素。順便說一句，除了相對較低的借貸成本（部分被股息抵消）之外，沒有任何情況我們需要投入更多的資本。

We also intend to replenish that equity investment, as we said in the press release, with asset sales, and there are more than a handful that we're focused on presently. I suppose it's good to see that the Vodafone stock is up since our announcement. We don't take credit for that, but obviously, that's a positive. And then finally, on the bottom right, we provided a few points on how we see this part of our business evolving. And you'll see that the 3 main verticals, tech, content and infrastructure are targeting technology, services or platforms that are right up our alley as they say. We have expertise, history or unique synergies in each of these areas.

正如我們在新聞稿中所說，我們還打算通過資產出售來補充股權投資，我們目前關注的不只少數。我想很高興看到 Vodafone 的股票自我們宣布以來上漲。我們不會因此而受到讚揚，但顯然，這是積極的。最後，在右下角，我們提供了一些關於我們如何看待這部分業務發展的觀點。你會看到 3 個主要的垂直領域，技術、內容和基礎設施正在瞄準技術、服務或平台，正如他們所說的那樣。我們在這些領域中的每一個領域都擁有專業知識、歷史或獨特的協同作用。

We've added a fourth pillar that we simply call Financial, for lack of a better word, which captures existing and potential investments in the debt or equity of situations that we feel are strategic, distressed or provide a unique opportunity to put capital to work. Now, across the first 3 pillars, our investing principles are straightforward. We're looking for businesses that provide significant growth opportunities. This typically means businesses with scale, sector tailwinds and strategic benefits to both our opcos or perhaps other portfolio investments. We're also interested in companies built around new or disruptive innovation that either diversify or amplify our core businesses. And then lastly, we intend to be extremely disciplined here with exits and what we refer to as capital rotation.

我們添加了第四個支柱，我們簡稱為“財務”，因為找不到更好的詞了，它涵蓋了我們認為具有戰略意義、陷入困境或提供獨特機會讓資本發揮作用的現有和潛在債務或股權投資.現在，在前 3 個支柱中，我們的投資原則很簡單。我們正在尋找能夠提供顯著增長機會的企業。這通常意味著對我們的 opcos 或其他投資組合投資具有規模、行業順風和戰略利益的企業。我們也對圍繞新的或顛覆性創新建立的公司感興趣，這些創新要么使我們的核心業務多樣化，要么擴大我們的核心業務。最後，我們打算在退出和我們所說的資本輪換方面嚴格遵守紀律。

We've already begun to evaluate every position and believe there are more than a handful of assets that could be monetized both in the ventures group and outside the portfolio, like towers, for example. So those are the core building blocks of value creation. First, we're going to continue to drive growth and free cash flow in our FMC champions and optimize our ownership positions in these businesses over time. This may include capital investment in M&A or strategic growth in some of those markets. Also we'll be very flexible and agile about, as we've said in the past, listings or spins and things like that.

我們已經開始評估每一個職位，並相信在風險投資集團和投資組合之外，有很多資產可以貨幣化，例如塔樓。因此，這些是價值創造的核心組成部分。首先，我們將繼續推動 FMC 冠軍的增長和自由現金流，並隨著時間的推移優化我們在這些業務中的所有權地位。這可能包括對併購的資本投資或其中一些市場的戰略增長。此外，正如我們過去所說的那樣，我們將非常靈活和敏捷地處理列表或旋轉之類的事情。

Secondly, we're going to continue to put our capital to work in an efficient buyback program, as we've consistently done. And then third, we're going to remain opportunistic about investments that we feel are strategically aligned with our core mission and within our capability set. And this last one is not easy, right? But we've surely earned the credibility to work here, given our history of building, buying and exiting assets in our sector over time. I don't want to be on this call in 3 years' time, sitting on $3.5 billion of corporate cash and $6 billion of liquidity. I don't think you want that either. So we're focused on value creation first and foremost, and I think we're in a great position to do that. Charlie, over to you.

其次，我們將繼續把我們的資金投入到一個有效的回購計劃中，就像我們一直在做的那樣。第三，我們將對我們認為在戰略上與我們的核心使命和我們的能力範圍內一致的投資保持機會主義。最後一個並不容易，對吧？但鑑於我們長期以來在本行業建立、購買和退出資產的歷史，我們肯定贏得了在這里工作的信譽。我不想在 3 年後參加這個電話會議，坐擁 35 億美元的公司現金和 60 億美元的流動資金。我想你也不想要那個。因此，我們首先關注價值創造，我認為我們在這方面處於有利地位。查理，交給你了。

Thanks, Mike. On the next page, we've provided a summary of the revenue profile in our 4 key markets. 2022 saw stable revenues in 3 of our 4 markets and slight growth in Belgium despite the challenging macroeconomic environment. Fixed consumer revenue pressures across our markets were suffered by sensible price adjustments in Benelux and in the U.K., and we saw strong mobile and B2B growth across our portfolio. Virgin Media O2 delivered stable revenues in Q4 and across 2022 with continued pressures on fixed consumer ARPU and challenges in B2B being offset by strong mobile subscription revenue growth. Switzerland saw Q4 revenue growth decline as continued strong mobile growth was offset by weaker B2B wholesale revenues and continued pressure on the consumer ARPU mix as the business resets the pricing of its UPC customers in the migration to the Sunrise brand.

謝謝，邁克。在下一頁，我們提供了 4 個主要市場的收入概況摘要。儘管宏觀經濟環境充滿挑戰，但 2022 年我們在 4 個市場中的 3 個市場實現了穩定的收入，在比利時實現了小幅增長。由於比荷盧經濟聯盟和英國的合理價格調整，我們市場的固定消費者收入壓力受到影響，我們看到整個產品組合的移動和 B2B 增長強勁。 Virgin Media O2 在第四季度和整個 2022 年實現了穩定的收入，固定消費者 ARPU 的持續壓力和 B2B 的挑戰被強勁的移動訂閱收入增長所抵消。瑞士第四季度收入增長下滑，這是因為 B2B 批發收入疲軟以及消費者 ARPU 組合持續面臨壓力所抵消了持續強勁的移動增長，因為該企業在遷移到 Sunrise 品牌時重置了其 UPC 客戶的定價。

In the Netherlands, despite a strong net outperformance, we saw a slight decline in revenue growth due to weakness in the consumer fixed business, partially offset by price adjustments, which we implemented in July. We delivered mobile service revenue growth of 6.3% in Q4, which was supported by a mobile price adjustment in October. Belgium delivered Q4 revenue growth of 1.7% and 1.5% across 2022 as the mid-June price adjustment continue to support top line fixed ARPU growth in the second half of the year. The next slide sets out our adjusted EBITDA performance in the quarter. The standout performance in Q4 was delivered by Virgin Media O2, posting full year adjusted EBITDA growth of 6%.

在荷蘭，儘管淨表現強勁，但由於消費者固定業務疲軟，我們看到收入增長略有下降，部分被我們在 7 月份實施的價格調整所抵消。我們在第四季度實現了 6.3% 的移動服務收入增長，這得益於 10 月份的移動價格調整。比利時在 2022 年第四季度實現了 1.7% 和 1.5% 的收入增長，因為 6 月中旬的價格調整繼續支持下半年固定 ARPU 的收入增長。下一張幻燈片列出了本季度調整後的 EBITDA 業績。 Virgin Media O2 在第四季度表現出色，全年調整後 EBITDA 增長 6%。

In Q4, Virgin Media O2 delivered accelerated EBITDA growth of 10%, driven by synergies from the merger and the continued impact of price rises earlier in the year. This was despite $40 million of cost to capture, which hit the OpEx line this quarter versus the exceptional EBITDA growth in Q4, we do expect Q1 growth to be much more muted and this is impacted by the phasing of a delayed fixed price rise and tougher synergy comparative versus the prior year. Sunrise saw an EBITDA decline of 8.1% in Q4 as tailwinds from the MVNO synergies faded combined with a continued weaker fixed ARPU mix.

在第四季度，Virgin Media O2 實現了 10% 的 EBITDA 加速增長，這得益於合併產生的協同效應以及今年早些時候價格上漲的持續影響。儘管捕獲了 4000 萬美元的成本，與第四季度的異常 EBITDA 增長相比，本季度達到了 OpEx 線，但我們確實預計第一季度的增長將更加溫和，這是受到延遲的固定價格上漲階段和更嚴格的影響與上一年相比的協同效應。 Sunrise 在第四季度的 EBITDA 下降了 8.1%，這是因為來自 MVNO 協同效應的順風消退以及固定 ARPU 組合持續走弱。

This continues to be as a result of the rotational churn challenge associated with the UPC migration to the Sunrise brand. We expect headwinds from this migration to continue to impact EBITDA trends in 2023 and in particular, impact the Q1 numbers. Vodafone Ziggo saw a slight decline in EBITDA growth in Q4 driven by cost inflation headwinds, which offset the impact of price adjustments. We expect cost inflation headwinds, in particular, in energy to impact our 2023 outlook with an estimated EBITDA hit of over EUR 100 million from energy and wages.

這仍然是與 UPC 遷移到 Sunrise 品牌相關的輪流流失挑戰的結果。我們預計這種遷移帶來的不利因素將繼續影響 2023 年的 EBITDA 趨勢，尤其是影響第一季度的數據。 Vodafone Ziggo 第四季度的 EBITDA 增長在成本通脹逆風的推動下略有下降，這抵消了價格調整的影響。我們預計成本通脹逆風，尤其是能源領域，將影響我們 2023 年的前景，估計能源和工資對 EBITDA 的影響超過 1 億歐元。

Telenet reported EBITDA growth at around 5% for the second consecutive quarter, driven by price adjustments. The business anticipates ongoing headwinds from energy inflation as well as manage wage increases of 11%, which will hit from the start of 2023. The next slide provides a more detailed update on our energy costs. Before the Ukraine invasion, energy typically accounted for a low single-digit percentage of operating costs. And historically, our policy was to hedge those costs forward on a rolling 12-month basis. This hedging policy helped soften the impact of rising energy costs in our 2022 results and we were able to absorb the impact of the unhedged costs and still meet our EBITDA guidance in our opcos. However, in 2023, you will see a full impact of the increased energy costs resulting from the invasion.

Telenet 報告稱，在價格調整的推動下，EBITDA 連續第二個季度增長 5% 左右。該公司預計能源通脹將持續帶來阻力，並管理 11% 的工資增長，這將從 2023 年初開始實現。下一張幻燈片提供了我們能源成本的更詳細更新。在烏克蘭入侵之前，能源通常只佔運營成本的個位數百分比。從歷史上看，我們的政策是在滾動 12 個月的基礎上對沖這些成本。這種對沖政策有助於減輕能源成本上升對我們 2022 年業績的影響，我們能夠吸收未對沖成本的影響，並且仍然符合我們 opcos 的 EBITDA 指導。然而，在 2023 年，您將看到入侵導致能源成本增加的全面影響。

And as you can see from these slides, we have broadly hedged the energy costs in each of our markets for 2023, but this has been at significantly higher rates than 2021 and 2022. We've highlighted the impact on each of our markets. But if you were to add them all up and use today's dollar exchange rates, broadly, our 2021 energy cost of around $280 million increased to around $410 million in 2022 and will be around $600 million in 2023 representing a hit to free cash flow across our portfolio of around $330 million as a result of the invasion.

正如您從這些幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們已對 2023 年每個市場的能源成本進行了廣泛對沖，但這比 2021 年和 2022 年的利率要高得多。我們強調了對我們每個市場的影響。但是，如果將它們全部加起來並使用今天的美元匯率，從廣義上講，我們 2021 年的能源成本約為 2.8 億美元，到 2022 年增加到約 4.1 億美元，到 2023 年將達到約 6 億美元，這意味著我們整個公司的自由現金流受到打擊入侵造成約 3.3 億美元的投資組合。

So like everyone else, we don't know where energy prices will settle out. But in the meantime, we continue to execute our rolling 12-month hedging program and it starts over 2024 hedges, which thanks to recent price declines are at lower prices than we have locked in for 2023. We're also investigating longer-term fixed rate deals through PPA agreements. The next slide gives an update on our progress on the U.K. and Swiss synergies resulting from the O2 merger and Sunrise acquisition. We remain on track in both the U.K. and Switzerland with our overall synergy targets with a very strong finish to the year in the U.K.

所以和其他人一樣，我們不知道能源價格將在何處結算。但與此同時，我們繼續執行我們的 12 個月滾動對沖計劃，它從 2024 年的對沖開始，由於最近的價格下跌，價格低於我們鎖定的 2023 年的價格。我們還在調查長期固定通過 PPA 協議對交易進行定價。下一張幻燈片介紹了我們在 O2 合併和 Sunrise 收購所產生的英國和瑞士協同效應方面的最新進展。我們在英國和瑞士都保持在正軌上，我們的整體協同目標在英國以非常強勁的成績結束了這一年。

Now just to remind you, at Virgin Media O2, we expect to deliver GBP 6.2 billion of NPV synergies or an annualized run rate target of GBP 540 million from the O2 merger. In 2022, we comfortably delivered over 30% of our synergies in the first 18 months of the combined business and are on track to deliver the 50% by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, cost to capture peaked in 2022 with over GBP 300 million recorded out of the total GBP 700 million cost to capture envelope. Cost to capture are expected to roughly halve in 2023, falling to around GBP 150 million as investment in mobile capacity to support the MVNO migration took place in 2022.

現在提醒您，在 Virgin Media O2，我們預計 O2 合併將帶來 62 億英鎊的 NPV 協同效應或 5.4 億英鎊的年化運行率目標。到 2022 年，我們在合併後業務的前 18 個月輕鬆實現了超過 30% 的協同效應，並有望在 2023 年底實現 50%。與此同時，捕獲成本在 2022 年達到頂峰，錄得超過 3 億英鎊捕獲信封的總成本為 7 億英鎊。由於支持 MVNO 遷移的移動容量投資於 2022 年進行，預計捕獲成本將在 2023 年減半，降至約 1.5 億英鎊。

In 2023, trends are expected to benefit from the continued flow-through of MVNO synergies, along with the unlocking of further synergy streams, including labor and commercial. Moving to Switzerland. We reaffirm our target to deliver CHF 3.7 billion NPV of synergies and incur CHF 400 million of overall cost to capture. 2022 represents a peak year for cost to capture as approximately CHF 140 million of cost to capture supported the business and achieving nearly 50% of our synergy run rate target, including the early benefit of MVNO synergies supporting half 1 trends in 2022.

到 2023 年，趨勢預計將受益於 MVNO 協同效應的持續流動，以及進一步協同效應流的釋放，包括勞動力和商業。移居瑞士。我們重申我們的目標是實現 37 億瑞士法郎的協同效應淨現值，並產生 4 億瑞士法郎的總成本。 2022 年是捕獲成本的高峰年，因為約 1.4 億瑞士法郎的捕獲成本支持了業務並實現了我們協同效應運行率目標的近 50%，包括支持 2022 年 half 1 趨勢的 MVNO 協同效應的早期收益。

The business aims to deliver around 60% of the synergy run rate target by the end of 2023 with key focus areas being the buildup of the DSL migration and headcount synergies and delivery of these synergy projects will be supported by an expected CHF 50 million of cost to capture spend in 2023. Turning to capital allocation. Q4 saw a step up in capital intensity across our key operations as we expected and was consistent with our full year capital intensity guidance for the group. Moving to distributable cash flow. We achieved our distributable cash flow guidance for the year, delivering over $1.7 billion of full company distributable cash flow in 2022 based on the FX rates at the time of our 2022 guidance. On a reported basis, for the full year, distributable cash flow was around $1.6 billion, including $455 million of dividends from Virgin Media O2 along with $478 million coming from our share of the recapitalization of that company and $321 million from VodafoneZiggo.

該業務的目標是到 2023 年底實現約 60% 的協同運行率目標，重點領域是建立 DSL 遷移和員工協同效應，這些協同項目的交付將得到預計 5000 萬瑞士法郎成本的支持以獲取 2023 年的支出。轉向資本配置。正如我們預期的那樣，第四季度我們主要業務的資本密集度有所提高，這與我們對集團的全年資本密集度指導一致。轉向可分配現金流。我們實現了當年的可分配現金流量指導，根據我們 2022 年指導時的匯率，2022 年全公司可分配現金流量超過 17 億美元。根據報告，全年可分配現金流量約為 16 億美元，其中包括來自 Virgin Media O2 的 4.55 億美元股息以及來自我們在該公司資本重組中的份額的 4.78 億美元和來自 VodafoneZiggo 的 3.21 億美元。

Finally, our outlook for 2023. Now I appreciate there's a lot on this slide, but to help you understand our current view and the 2023 key financial drivers and ultimately, the free cash flow and cash flow distributions of our key assets, we've added our view on some of the drivers behind those assumptions. Starting with VMO2.

最後，我們對 2023 年的展望。現在我很感激這張幻燈片上有很多內容，但為了幫助您了解我們當前的觀點和 2023 年的主要財務驅動因素，以及最終我們主要資產的自由現金流和現金流分佈，我們已經添加了我們對這些假設背後的一些驅動因素的看法。從 VMO2 開始。

On an IFRS basis, we expect to achieve revenue growth, mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth supported by synergy execution and inflation-linked price rise adjustments with headwinds from inflationary pressures impacting our cost base, including energy. Now these numbers are excluding cost of capture for the year, where we expect OpEx and CapEx cost to capture of around GBP 150 million which is still within our multiyear expectation of GBP 700 million. We also guide to property and equipment additions of around GBP 2 billion benefited from Project lightly moving off balance sheet, but this is offset somewhat by the fiber upgrade accelerating and the 5G mobile investments. On cash distributions to shareholders, Virgin Media O2 is guiding to around GBP 1.8 billion to GBP 2 billion versus GBP 1.6 billion distributed in 2022.

在 IFRS 的基礎上，我們預計將實現收入增長、中等個位數的調整後 EBITDA 增長，這得益於協同效應執行和與通脹掛鉤的價格上漲調整，以及影響我們成本基礎（包括能源）的通脹壓力帶來的不利影響。現在這些數字不包括當年的捕獲成本，我們預計 OpEx 和 CapEx 成本將捕獲約 1.5 億英鎊，這仍在我們多年預期的 7 億英鎊之內。我們還指導大約 20 億英鎊的財產和設備增加受益於項目輕微地離開資產負債表，但這在一定程度上被光纖升級加速和 5G 移動投資所抵消。在向股東分配現金方面，Virgin Media O2 預計分配給 18 億至 20 億英鎊，而 2022 年分配的現金為 16 億英鎊。

Turning to Sunrise. We expect low single-digit revenue decline for the year, along with low to mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA decline, including cost to capture. As the business continues to navigate the impact of the UPC brand migration and lower tailwinds from the synergies in 2023. We guide some property and equipment additions as a percentage of sales to be around 15% to 17%, also including cost to capture. Cost to capture spend will drop this year, falling to around CHF 50 million, of which CHF 10 million is expected to be attributed to OpEx. VodafoneZiggo is guiding to an improved revenue profile supported by pricing actions and low to mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA decline as the business will be impacted by cost inflation headwinds of around EUR 100 million from energy and wages.

轉向日出。我們預計今年的收入將出現較低的個位數下降，以及調整後的 EBITDA 下降至中低個位數，包括捕獲成本。隨著業務繼續應對 UPC 品牌遷移的影響以及 2023 年協同效應的順風減弱。我們指導一些財產和設備增加佔銷售額的百分比在 15% 至 17% 左右，其中還包括捕獲成本。今年捕獲支出的成本將下降，降至 5000 萬瑞士法郎左右，其中 1000 萬瑞士法郎預計將歸因於運營支出。 VodafoneZiggo 正在指導改善收入狀況，這得益於定價行動和低至中個位數的調整後 EBITDA 下降，因為該業務將受到來自能源和工資的約 1 億歐元成本通脹逆風的影響。

Property and equipment additions as a percentage of sales is expected to be 21% to 23%. The Dutch JV is guiding to shareholder distributions of EUR 300 million to EUR 400 million of cash, which is impacted by higher cash taxes and a tougher EBITDA outlook. This is versus cash distributions of EUR 602 million in 2022. And finally, on an IFRS basis, Telenet are guiding to revenue growth of 1% to 2%, supported by price adjustments and broadly stable adjusted EBITDA impacted by wage and energy inflation headwinds. Property and equipment additions as a proportion of sales are expected to be around 26% with an adjusted free cash flow outlook of EUR 250 million for the year. This is lower versus the EUR 409 million delivered in 2022 as free cash flow will be impacted by higher CapEx on 5G fiber build.

物業和設備增加佔銷售額的百分比預計為 21% 至 23%。荷蘭合資企業正在指導股東分配 3 億至 4 億歐元的現金，這受到更高的現金稅和更嚴格的 EBITDA 前景的影響。這與 2022 年的 6.02 億歐元現金分配形成對比。最後，在 IFRS 的基礎上，Telenet 預計收入增長 1% 至 2%，這得益於價格調整以及受工資和能源通脹逆風影響的調整後 EBITDA 大體穩定。物業和設備增加佔銷售額的比例預計約為 26%，調整後的全年自由現金流前景為 2.5 億歐元。這低於 2022 年交付的 4.09 億歐元，因為自由現金流將受到 5G 光纖建設資本支出增加的影響。

And finally, on group distributable cash flow guidance, regarding to $1.6 billion of distributable cash flow in 2023 at guidance FX rates. We reiterate our commitment to buy back 10% of our shares outstanding in 2023.

最後，關於集團可分配現金流量指導，關於 2023 年按指導匯率計算的 16 億美元可分配現金流量。我們重申我們承諾在 2023 年回購 10% 的已發行股票。

And with that, operator, let's turn to questions.

有了這個，接線員，讓我們轉向問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Sam McHugh with Exane.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Sam McHugh 與 Exane 的對話。

I'm just trying to wrap my head around Slide 21 and the central cost update. It's kind of a 2-part question. The first bit is just, I see that there are some changes happening with the P&E allocations. Just to confirm, that's already captured in the opco guidance that you gave separately, for example, like the Switzerland OpEx charge shift, that's already in the Swiss guidance? And then secondly, how should we think about the cash burn in Central in 2023 relative to what looks like maybe EUR 200 million loss in 2022.

我只是想全神貫注於 Slide 21 和中央成本更新。這是一個由兩部分組成的問題。首先，我看到 P&E 分配發生了一些變化。只是確認一下，這已經包含在您單獨提供的 opco 指南中，例如瑞士的 OpEx 費用轉移，這已經在瑞士指南中了嗎？其次，相對於 2022 年可能損失 2 億歐元的情況，我們應該如何看待 2023 年 Central 的現金消耗。

Charlie?

查理？

Yes. Yes, I confirm just everyone understands what goes on, we do it sort of our joint venture as well as our wholly owned companies. We have what we call technical service agreements to really support the tech spend, which has been coming consistently down actually over the years. And so that's baked in at the opco level, we've actually got a renegotiation with one of them pending, but broadly speaking, it's all fully baked in. And then at the center, as you know, we've been running around this EUR 200 million time number. There is gives and takes on that, depending a little bit on how much money we spend on development and new areas, but I think you should assume it's going to be broadly consistent around that number for the upcoming years.

是的。是的，我確認只有每個人都明白髮生了什麼，我們在合資企業和全資公司中都這樣做。我們有所謂的技術服務協議來真正支持技術支出，這些年來實際上一直在下降。因此，這是在 opco 級別進行的，我們實際上已經與其中一個進行了重新談判，但從廣義上講，它已經完全融入其中。然後在中心，如你所知，我們一直在圍繞這個問題2億歐元的時間。在這方面有所取捨，這在一定程度上取決於我們在開發和新領域上花費了多少資金，但我認為你應該假設未來幾年這個數字將大致保持一致。

The next question comes from the line of James Ratcliffe with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 James Ratcliffe 與 Evercore 的對話。

Two, if I could, one sort of big picture and one more specific. You talked about you're seeing for converged customers, higher NPS scores, lower churn, et cetera. What's the comparison to that? Because I certainly imagine that somebody isn't happy with their broadband service, they're probably not going to add the mobile service as well. So can you talk about what sort of the comparison set for specific customers who do add on broadband, what you're seeing versus customers who don't know the convergence route. And second, just on the Vodafone investment. You're now a meaningful holder of a core partner of yours. Can you talk about anything that, that would facilitate or anything you would make more difficult or limit in terms of your relationships around the JVs in particular?

兩個，如果可以的話，一種是大局，另一種是更具體的。你談到了你看到的融合客戶、更高的 NPS 分數、更低的流失率等等。那有什麼可比的？因為我當然認為有人對他們的寬帶服務不滿意，所以他們可能也不會添加移動服務。那麼，您能否談談針對添加寬帶的特定客戶的什麼樣的比較集，以及您所看到的與不知道融合路線的客戶的比較。其次，就沃達丰投資而言。您現在是您核心合作夥伴的重要持有人。你能談談任何會促進或增加困難或限制你與合資企業的關係的事情嗎？

Listen, on the convergence figures, [Jeroen] is on the call, I can let him chime in a little bit, too. But in the case of Holland, which we cite regularly, I think we're simply comparing FMC converged customers to nonconverged customers. Now fair point, if that's one you're making, there could be some sort of self-selection there. If you are happy with us, then you're likely to buy more products, which means you become happier, whereas people who are not happy with us generally may not buy more products, in which case you might say, well, clearly, they're not having customers.

聽著，關於收斂數字，[Jeroen] 正在通話中，我也可以讓他插話一下。但就我們經常引用的荷蘭而言，我認為我們只是將 FMC 融合客戶與非融合客戶進行比較。現在說句公道話，如果那是你正在做的，那裡可能會有某種自我選擇。如果您對我們感到滿意，那麼您可能會購買更多產品，這意味著您會變得更快樂，而對我們不滿意的人通常可能不會購買更多產品，在這種情況下您可能會說，嗯，很明顯，他們沒有顧客。

At the same time, there's no other way to do it. I mean, you're either converged or you're not. And when you can drive 20 points of NPS and have your churn, that's a big enough gap, so to speak, to support the premise that convergence works. Now we can maybe endeavor to provide a bit more color and detail around that going forward, but that is the basic set of statistics. On the Vodafone stakes, we are good partners with Vodafone. We do business together, quite frankly, in 3 countries. We own a power network together through this Beacon arrangement in the U.K. We've just signed a wholesale deal to provide them fiber access in Ireland. And of course, we're partners in Holland. So our touch points with Vodafone are many. This may or may not change that dialogue. We'll see. It's certainly not the reason we did it -- direct reason we did it, but I think it doesn't hurt to have to ensure that our conversations with them going forward about all of these business arrangements are open and direct. That's really all I would say there.

同時，沒有其他方法可以做到這一點。我的意思是，你要么收斂，要么不收斂。當您可以推動 20 個 NPS 點並發生流失時，可以說，這是一個足夠大的差距來支持融合有效的前提。現在我們也許可以努力為未來提供更多的顏色和細節，但這是基本的統計數據集。在沃達丰股份上，我們是沃達丰的好夥伴。坦率地說，我們在 3 個國家一起做生意。我們通過英國的 Beacon 安排共同擁有一個電力網絡。我們剛剛簽署了一項批發協議，為他們提供愛爾蘭的光纖接入。當然，我們是荷蘭的合作夥伴。所以我們與沃達丰的接觸點很多。這可能會也可能不會改變對話。我們拭目以待。這當然不是我們這樣做的原因——我們這樣做的直接原因，但我認為必須確保我們與他們就所有這些業務安排進行的對話是公開和直接的，這並沒有什麼壞處。這就是我要說的全部內容。

The next question comes from the line of Maurice Patrick with Barclays.

下一個問題來自莫里斯·帕特里克與巴克萊銀行的合作。

Yes, if I could ask a question on the U.K. ARPU trends. I think the U.K. ARPU the fixed ARPU was down about 3% or so this quarter despite the 6.5% price increase you put through early in the year. Just curious to your thoughts in terms of how the next pricing increase lens. Obviously, you've communicated the increase. I wondered how much of that you thought would flow through into better ARPU and therefore, what's baked into your guidance would be helpful. And just linked to, if I can, be curious to know your thoughts around front book and back book pricing in the U.K., clearly, a lot of back book pricing increases, but the front book is still very promotional. Where do you think that's set to narrow?

是的，如果我可以問一個關於英國 ARPU 趨勢的問題。我認為英國的 ARPU 固定 ARPU 本季度下降了約 3% 左右，儘管你在今年年初將價格上漲了 6.5%。只是想知道您對下一個定價如何增加鏡頭的想法。顯然，您已經傳達了增加的信息。我想知道您認為其中有多少會轉化為更好的 ARPU，因此，您的指導中包含的內容會有所幫助。如果可以的話，我很想知道你對英國前書和後書定價的看法，很明顯，很多後書定價都增加了，但前書仍然很有促銷性。您認為縮小範圍在哪裡？

I'll take the first one, Lutz, you take the second one. I think on the pricing, I will say is that we anticipate our mobile and fixed pricing to behave -- the impact of that pricing to be similar to prior years. And we said in the past, I think, what we believe generally happens in fixed pricing, where we get roughly half of that, if not more, and mobile pricing a larger percentage. And so for sure, we expect to either do as good or better, it's a larger increase, that's certain, in which case you might argue, hey, it's going to be harder.

我拿第一個，Lutz，你拿第二個。我認為關於定價，我要說的是我們預計我們的移動和固定定價會表現 - 該定價的影響與往年相似。我認為我們過去曾說過，我們認為固定定價通常會發生這種情況，我們獲得了大約一半，甚至更多，而移動定價所佔比例更大。所以可以肯定的是，我們希望做得一樣好或更好，這是一個更大的增長，這是肯定的，在這種情況下你可能會爭辯說，嘿，它會更難。

On the other hand, we have a lot more tools in place to manage customers in this particular go around. And as you would have read in the -- going forward, we have put into the Ts and Cs of contracts in the fixed side of our business in RPI plus 3.9% moving forward. So now you'll know next year what that price rise is based on January's RPI. It won't be something we're making. It won't be a decision we're making on a discretionary basis, it will look like BTs. Lutz, do you want to handle the front book, back book question?

另一方面，我們有更多的工具來管理這個特定的客戶。正如您在未來所讀到的那樣，我們已經將 RPI 固定業務的合同 Ts 和 Cs 加上 3.9% 向前推進。所以現在你會知道明年價格上漲是基於 1 月份的 RPI。這不會是我們正在製作的東西。這不會是我們根據自由裁量權做出的決定，它看起來像 BT。 Lutz，你要處理前書，後書問題嗎？

Yes. Maybe the only thing I would add on the pricing is right, Mike said it, we have much more tools in place. So we are a month into it. And we know exactly how many customers of which cohorts have reacted in whatever way of form. And we also, therefore, understand exactly how much of the retained revenue we got. And we -- I won't disclose any number, but so far, we are fully on plan, right? The last year, you referred to that, there are 2 things, right? One thing is you do a general price increase and you get a certain reaction. And then second, during the entire year, customers have been optimizing their bill irrespective price rise because they don't want to keep using their landline or they want to get rid of mid-tier video content to simply optimize their bill.

是的。也許我唯一要添加的定價是正確的，邁克說，我們有更多的工具。所以我們已經一個月了。我們確切地知道哪些群體中有多少客戶以任何形式做出了反應。因此，我們也確切了解我們獲得了多少留存收入。我們——我不會透露任何數字，但到目前為止，我們完全按計劃進行，對嗎？去年，你提到過，有兩件事，對吧？一件事是你做了一個普遍的價格上漲，你得到了一定的反應。其次，在整個一年中，無論價格上漲如何，客戶都在優化他們的賬單，因為他們不想繼續使用他們的固定電話，或者他們想擺脫中端視頻內容來簡單地優化他們的賬單。

And therefore, you're right, last year, the net of the part have been negative. Now we are not giving a guidance for this year, but we are guiding an overall revenue growth and so we are much more confident on this piece of it as well. Front book, back book. So in general, you are right. This is the strategic challenge, right? So you see price increases now across most of the operators, but you still see high competition in the acquisition market. Now the way we are dealing with it in a positive way is twofold. One, we are not offering promotions on broadband. We're not following promotions of broadband around GBP 21, GBP 22 so we are staying more closer to GBP 30, leveraging our speed advantage. So the promotions you've seen from us the last 3 months are selling (inaudible). And therefore, we have less of a back book, front book issue.

因此，你是對的，去年，這部分的淨額是負的。現在我們沒有給出今年的指導，但我們正在指導整體收入增長，因此我們對這一部分也更有信心。前書，後書。所以總的來說，你是對的。這是戰略挑戰，對吧？所以你看到現在大多數運營商的價格都在上漲，但你仍然看到收購市場的激烈競爭。現在我們以積極的方式處理它的方式是雙重的。第一，我們不提供寬帶促銷。我們沒有關注 21 英鎊、22 英鎊左右的寬帶促銷，因此我們將更接近 30 英鎊，利用我們的速度優勢。因此，您在過去 3 個月從我們這裡看到的促銷活動正在銷售（聽不清）。因此，我們的後書、前書問題較少。

And the second thing is we are also -- with our digital capabilities, we now can test different ways of selling. So instead of an end of a promotion step-up, we are also offering within the minimum contract length that customers are paying half of it. But in the minimum contract length then they pay a higher price, so there's less of a churn. So there's a lot of optimization going on and stay tuned.

第二件事是我們也是——憑藉我們的數字能力，我們現在可以測試不同的銷售方式。因此，我們並沒有結束促銷升級，而是在客戶支付一半的最短合同期限內提供服務。但在最短合同期限內，他們支付的價格更高，因此流失率更低。所以有很多優化正在進行中，敬請期待。

The next question comes from the line of Robert Grindle with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Robert Grindle。

On the U.K. cable upgrade and new fiber JV 1.5 million new fiber homes for the combination in 2023 doesn't appear massive versus 1 million achieved in full year '22. Are you being cautious here? Perhaps it takes a while to get to run rate, and perhaps related to the question is the press as you're looking at out net acquisitions? Are you tilting away from build to buy? And how quickly can VMO2 sell off the new build once it's happened?

在英國電纜升級和新光纖合資企業中，2023 年 150 萬個新光纖家庭的組合似乎並不龐大，而 22 年全年實現了 100 萬個。你在這裡很謹慎嗎？也許需要一段時間才能達到運行率，也許與問題相關的是媒體，因為您正在關注淨收購？您是否正在從建造轉向購買？一旦新版本發生，VMO2 能多快賣掉它？

Yes. There's a handful of good questions there. And I think on the speed point, I would simply say that we've got until 2028. So this is not -- we've never given numbers or time frames that we believe would imply this is going to happen overnight. So we think it does take a bit of time to get the machine moving and the 50% uptick is reasonable, but could be exceeded. Let's see. It's a -- I'm not saying it's a marathon, but it's not a sprint either. We're hoping to have 80% of homes covered by fiber here by 2028. We think that is the right long-term strategy, but it's a long-term strategy. So we'll do it at the pace that makes sense for us.

是的。那裡有一些很好的問題。而且我認為在速度點上，我只想說我們已經到了 2028 年。所以這不是 - 我們從未給出我們認為暗示這將在一夜之間發生的數字或時間框架。所以我們認為讓機器運轉確實需要一些時間，50% 的漲幅是合理的，但可能會超過。讓我們來看看。這是——我不是說這是一場馬拉松，但也不是短跑。我們希望到 2028 年光纖覆蓋 80% 的家庭。我們認為這是正確的長期戰略，但這是一個長期戰略。因此，我們將按照對我們有意義的速度進行。

And as Lutz would say, we sit today with a 1 gig network that reaches 16 million homes, offering an average speed of 300 meg, which is 5 or 6x faster than the average British households received from other providers. So we're in a great position even while we build out. It's not as if we have to convert a network from copper to fiber or in some sort of other foot rates. Quite frankly, we are already leading the race, and so we're just fortifying the long-term position. Lutz, do you want to take the second part?

正如 Lutz 所說，我們今天擁有一個覆蓋 1600 萬個家庭的 1 gig 網絡，提供 300 兆的平均速度，比其他供應商提供的平均英國家庭速度快 5 或 6 倍。因此，即使我們擴建，我們也處於有利地位。這並不是說我們必須將網絡從銅纜轉換為光纖或以某種其他的費率計算。坦率地說，我們已經處於領先地位，所以我們只是在鞏固長期地位。 Lutz，你要拍第二部嗎？

Yes. Can you repeat the question, Robert. So what was it again?

是的。你能重複這個問題嗎，羅伯特。那又是什麼？

How long does it take VMO2 to sell off the new JV once homes are passed? And are you tilting more to buy than build in the JV homes?

一旦房屋通過，VMO2 需要多長時間才能出售新合資企業？您是否更願意購買而不是建造合資房屋？

Okay. So I mean the first one, we are, as you know, very experienced to get to the penetration on the Lightning network. With now nexfibre, there's no change there, right? Because Virgin Media O2 is building the network for nexfibre and Virgin Media is also the anchor tenant of it. So we are selling into it. And so you know that we are getting to a far higher penetration than any altnet got to. And you know also how quickly we ramp up. So don't expect any changes here in the future. So we plan exactly with the same.

好的。所以我的意思是第一個，如你所知，我們在閃電網絡的滲透方面非常有經驗。現在有了 nexfibre，那裡沒有變化，對嗎？因為 Virgin Media O2 正在為 nexfibre 建設網絡，而 Virgin Media 也是它的主要租戶。所以我們正在出售它。所以你知道我們的滲透率比任何 altnet 都要高得多。你也知道我們的發展速度有多快。所以不要指望這裡將來會發生任何變化。所以我們的計劃完全一樣。

And then obviously, Virgin Media O2 is not a shareholder of nexfibre. So this is more Liberty Global, Telefónica and InfraVia. But altnets are getting under stress. This is our perception. The reason is they don't get to the penetration, they need to. So according to our numbers, there is 7.6 million fiber homes in the U.K. from altnets, and the penetration is around 15%. And from a pure wholesale perspective, we all know you need 40% and cost of capitals are increasing. So opportunistically, we will look at it, and we will take the opportunities then as they come.

顯然，Virgin Media O2 不是 nexfibre 的股東。所以這更多是 Liberty Global、Telefónica 和 InfraVia。但替代網絡正面臨壓力。這是我們的認知。原因是他們沒有達到滲透，他們需要。因此，根據我們的數據，英國有 760 萬個光纖家庭來自替代網絡，普及率約為 15%。從純粹的批發角度來看，我們都知道您需要 40%，而且資金成本正在增加。所以機會主義，我們會看看它，然後我們會抓住機會。

The next question comes from the line of Luis Sanchez-Lecaroz with Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自 Luis Sanchez-Lecaroz 與 Crédit Suisse 的對話。

I wanted to follow up on the previous question and specifically, looking a little bit deeper on the 1.5 million for next year? And can you give us the split between upgrade and greenfield rollout. And then looking into the U.K. guidance, can you let us know if you are factoring in the construction revenues from the new fiber JV and the retail business that you would get from greenfield areas.

我想跟進上一個問題，具體來說，更深入地了解明年的 150 萬？你能告訴我們升級和全新推出之間的區別嗎？然後看看英國的指南，你能否讓我們知道你是否考慮了新光纖合資企業的建築收入和你將從綠地地區獲得的零售業務。

Yes. I mean I think, Luis, we've said the split is roughly 50-50. But I don't know -- and Charlie, this is a question for you, whether we identified the revenues from nexfibre or call them out, but there will be revenue, modest revenues, not material revenues.

是的。我的意思是，我認為，路易斯，我們已經說過分裂大約是 50-50。但我不知道 - 查理，這是你的問題，我們是否確定了來自 nexfibre 的收入或將其調出，但會有收入，適度的收入，而不是物質收入。

This is not a massive number, but there is some modest revenue baked into our numbers.

這不是一個龐大的數字，但我們的數字中包含了一些適度的收入。

Yes. Yes. So I mean, nexfibre, right, we are building the network for that we are getting paid. On the other hand side, we are selling the network. And for that, we are now paying wholesale revenue, right? So this is the changes in the P&L, I think we haven't disclosed any numbers, the split between expansion and upgrade. So -- and I think we don't want to do that. The only thing I'm saying is these are 2 completely different activities. Expanding, obviously, is much more heavy lifting, takes more work. And I think what we have said is that in '22, we have expanded faster than in '21. And in '23, we have the ambition to expand faster than in '22.

是的。是的。所以我的意思是，nexfibre，是的，我們正在建立我們獲得報酬的網絡。另一方面，我們正在銷售網絡。為此，我們現在支付批發收入，對嗎？所以這就是損益表的變化，我認為我們還沒有披露任何數字，即擴展和升級之間的差異。所以 - 我認為我們不想那樣做。我唯一要說的是，這是兩種完全不同的活動。顯然，擴張是一項繁重的工作，需要更多的工作。而且我認為我們所說的是，在 22 年，我們的擴張速度比 21 年快。在 23 年，我們有比 22 年更快擴張的雄心。

And on the upgrade, right, what we have to do, just to remind everybody is we have to pull fiber through our existing duct. This is much less of heavy lifting. We have also guided that we will -- we are spending around GBP 100 per homes passed. So which also explains that the work is significantly less. And I want to simply reiterate the point Mike has made earlier, right we first leverage our [4x] network as much as we can. And selling fiber to early doesn't have really a commercial benefit for us at that point in time. So we have time.

在升級中，我們必須做的是提醒大家，我們必須通過現有的管道拉光纖。這遠不是繁重的工作。我們還指導我們將——我們為每個經過的家庭花費大約 100 英鎊。所以這也解釋了工作量明顯減少了。我想簡單地重申 Mike 之前提出的觀點，我們首先要盡可能多地利用我們的 [4x] 網絡。在那個時候，提前銷售光纖對我們來說並沒有真正的商業利益。所以我們有時間。

The next question comes from the line of Polo Tang with UBS.

下一個問題來自 Polo Tang 與 UBS 的對話。

I have 2. The first one is on Switzerland. So a question for André. Can you talk through the competitive dynamics in the Swiss market? And maybe talk in a bit more detail about the issues that you're facing with the retirement of the UPC brand? And going forward, should we expect maybe a relatively stable broadband performance in terms of net adds for Switzerland, but maybe it's just a case of repricing taking its time to work its way through. Alternatively, where are the other moving parts that are driving the Swiss EBITDA declines in 2023? And the second question is really just about fiber wholesale in the U.K. So I appreciate that you're still in the process of upgrading your cable network to fiber but have you had any discussions with other communication providers about wholesaling on the VMO2 network. And do you think that this could be a meaningful revenue stream going forward? Alternatively, is the Equinox 2 pricing from Openreach now an unstoppable train meaning you have no chance.

我有 2 個。第一個是關於瑞士的。所以有一個問題要問 André。您能談談瑞士市場的競爭動態嗎？也許更詳細地談談您在 UPC 品牌停用時面臨的問題？展望未來，我們是否應該期望瑞士在淨增加方面的寬帶錶現可能相對穩定，但也許這只是重新定價的一個例子，需要時間來解決問題。或者，推動瑞士 EBITDA 在 2023 年下降的其他因素在哪裡？第二個問題實際上只是關於英國的光纖批發。所以我很欣賞你仍在將你的有線網絡升級到光纖的過程中，但你是否與其他通信提供商討論過 VMO2 網絡上的批發問題。你認為這可能是一個有意義的收入來源嗎？或者，Openreach 的 Equinox 2 定價現在是一列不可阻擋的火車，這意味著您沒有機會。

Well, let me take the second one first, and Andre, you can work up an answer to the first one. As I just mentioned, Polo, we're building a network, we think we'll reach 80% of the market. It's going to happen over an extended period of time. It's not happening tomorrow. And what any investor in a telecom market requires or would like to see some long-term certainty and a level playing field. Equinox 2, from our point of view, is unlikely to make a long-term impact on our plans. But in the short term, feels to us to be a bit desperate and premature by BT, reflecting, I would say, an overreaction to the market more broadly for whatever reason they felt that was necessary. On the other hand, we think Ofcom gets the larger picture here and is likely to look at Equinox 2 in a -- hopefully, a comprehensive way, and we look forward to the consultation process.

好吧，讓我先回答第二個問題，安德烈，你可以想出第一個問題的答案。正如我剛才提到的，Polo，我們正在建立一個網絡，我們認為我們將達到 80% 的市場份額。這將在很長一段時間內發生。這不會發生在明天。電信市場的任何投資者都需要或希望看到一些長期的確定性和公平的競爭環境。從我們的角度來看，Equinox 2 不太可能對我們的計劃產生長期影響。但在短期內，我們覺得 BT 有點絕望和過早，我想說，無論出於什麼原因，他們認為這是必要的，這反映了對市場更廣泛的過度反應。另一方面，我們認為 Ofcom 在這裡得到了更大的了解，並且可能會以一種——希望是全面的方式來看待 Equinox 2，我們期待著磋商過程。

But from our point of view, whether we are providing wholesale services tomorrow or next year or the year after, remember that in the upgrade of our fiber homes, which we announced some time ago, upgraded to 16 million homes. We did not say at that point in time that, that decision to spend GBP 100 per home was based upon the need to realize wholesale revenue. In fact, we said the exact opposite, which was we believe this makes sense relative to DOCSIS 4 regardless of wholesale revenue. That doesn't mean we don't have ambition. It just means to say that our economics are sound either way. Now the nexfibre JV clearly would love to expand wholesale revenue beyond Virgin Media O2 as its anchor tenant. And in that instance, that particular joint venture will make the argument it needs to make and pursue the strategic ambition it needs to pursue. So hopefully, that puts a little bit of context around how we see the market. This is a long-term process here. This isn't something that any 1 move by any 1 operator is going to derail in our opinion, and we remain committed. André?

但是從我們的角度來看，無論我們是在明天還是明年還是後年提供批發服務，請記住在我們前段時間宣布的光纖家庭升級中，升級到 1600 萬個家庭。當時我們並沒有說，每個家庭花費 100 英鎊的決定是基於實現批發收入的需要。事實上，我們說的恰恰相反，我們認為無論批發收入如何，這相對於 DOCSIS 4 都是有意義的。這並不意味著我們沒有野心。這只是說我們的經濟學無論哪種方式都是可靠的。現在 nexfibre JV 顯然希望將批發收入擴大到 Virgin Media O2 作為其主要租戶之外。在這種情況下，該特定合資企業將提出它需要提出的論點，並追求它需要追求的戰略雄心。因此，希望這能為我們如何看待市場提供一些背景信息。這是一個長期的過程。在我們看來，這不是任何 1 個運營商的任何 1 個舉動都會出軌的事情，我們仍然致力於此。安德烈？

Yes. In regards to competitive dynamics, I would say Q4 has seen a lot of liquidity in the market. Also seasonally, Black Friday was probably the biggest sales event in the last year. As such, we have also seen a very high level of promotional activity. We were benefiting from that from a customer perspective.

是的。關於競爭動態，我想說第四季度市場流動性很大。同樣是季節性的，黑色星期五可能是去年最大的銷售活動。因此，我們也看到了非常高水平的促銷活動。從客戶的角度來看，我們從中受益。

As you've seen and not only us, but also competitors gained quite a lot of new customers in the market, but the pricing levels or the discount levels on those promotions are not really sustainable and are also causing some of the pressure that we have with the migrations at customers that are looking at the front book prices and are migrated at back book prices, that is, of course, attention that is not making our life easy with all of the customers that we want to migrate over to the new Sunrise portfolio.

正如你所看到的，不僅是我們，還有競爭對手在市場上獲得了相當多的新客戶，但這些促銷活動的定價水平或折扣水平並不是真正可持續的，也給我們帶來了一些壓力隨著客戶的遷移，他們正在查看前面的預訂價格並以後面的預訂價格遷移，也就是說，當然，關注並沒有讓我們的生活變得輕鬆，我們想要遷移到新的 Sunrise 的所有客戶文件夾。

As a result of that, we have started already in Q1 to reduce our promotional aggressiveness mainly on the main brand. Our Flanker brand will not be addressed by that mainly because the Flanker brand has a different role and needs to play also the role of being more price aggressive. But on the main brand, we want to protect the back book better with lower promotional aggressiveness in particular, with promotions that do no longer offer a discount over the first contract term, but at maximum only half of the first contract terms so that customers get, again, used to actually pay the normal list price.

因此，我們已經在第一季度開始減少主要針對主要品牌的促銷力度。我們的 Flanker 品牌不會因此而受到影響，主要是因為 Flanker 品牌具有不同的作用，並且還需要發揮更具價格侵略性的作用。但在主要品牌上，我們希望通過降低促銷力度來更好地保護庫存，特別是在第一個合同期限內不再提供折扣的促銷活動，但最多只有第一個合同期限的一半，以便客戶獲得，再次，用於實際支付正常標價。

Now in terms of dynamics for next year, Clearly, the main driver for next year is those right pricing of the mainly fixed customers coming from UPC, that is roughly less than 1/3 of our total customers and not all of those customers will be necessarily a drag to ARPU and a drag to our revenues. But some of those are, if you think about it, I mean there are, of course, certain customers that are sitting on 1 or 2 products where we still have good opportunity to cross and upsell products provide more for same for example, or more for more, while there is a certain segment of customers that has already maxed out the product range and is sitting on an outpriced price point that no longer exists on the new front book.

現在就明年的動態而言，很明顯，明年的主要驅動力是來自 UPC 的主要固定客戶的正確定價，這大約不到我們總客戶的 1/3，而且並非所有這些客戶都會是必然會拖累 ARPU 並拖累我們的收入。但是其中一些是，如果你考慮一下，我的意思是，當然，某些客戶坐在 1 或 2 種產品上，我們仍然有很好的交叉和追加銷售產品的機會，例如，為相同的產品提供更多，或更多更多，雖然有一部分客戶已經用完了產品範圍，並且正坐在新的前台簿上不再存在的高價位上。

And in order to maintain those customer relations healthy and to continue working with them, we are doing this right pricing exercise. That's the main drag, I would say, also on the top line for next year. On top of that, I would say on the EBITDA guidance, we, of course, continue to actually prep the business to capture growth going forward. So we continue to actually do OpEx investments on the digital side.

為了保持這些客戶關係的健康並繼續與他們合作，我們正在進行這種正確的定價活動。我想說，這是主要的拖累，也是明年收入的主要拖累。最重要的是，我會在 EBITDA 指南中說，我們當然會繼續實際準備業務以捕捉未來的增長。因此，我們實際上繼續在數字方面進行運營支出投資。

We also do have some increase in OpEx that is coming from cloudification, things moving from CapEx to OpEx. And we have a number of other, I would say, marketing activities that for the first time, will hit full year range like, for example, the SwissSki sponsorship, which we only started in '22, but we'll see for the full extent only in '23. But the major driver, I would say, of the headache is really this right pricing in that relatively small fixed customer segment. All other growth engines. If you look at mobile, if you look at B2B, if you look at Flanker brand, maintain healthy but we are accelerating this exercise now to actually create a growth platform that we can start from going forward.

我們也確實有一些來自云化的運營支出增加，事情從資本支出轉移到運營支出。我想說的是，我們還有許多其他營銷活動將首次達到全年範圍，例如我們在 22 年才開始的 SwissSki 贊助，但我們會看到整個僅在 '23 中擴展。但我想說，令人頭疼的主要驅動因素確實是相對較小的固定客戶群的正確定價。所有其他增長引擎。如果你看看移動，如果你看看 B2B，如果你看看 Flanker 品牌，保持健康，但我們現在正在加速這項工作，以實際創建一個我們可以從前進開始的增長平台。

I'll just add that I have confidence in André and the team to manage through this. There is deep knowledge and understanding of the market, and this is a blip, not a change in direction. On the other hand, I would also point out that Charlie skipped over in his guidance slide the fact that Switzerland is guiding to $320 million to $350 million of free cash flow in 2023, which I'm going to guess here, André, I think it's up 30% to 40% over 2022. So despite the challenge is that André is working through at the revenue and customer level, which I'm sure we will get through, the business is generating significant free cash flow and on pace for the kinds of free cash flow results we had initially anticipated when we made the acquisition.

我只想補充一點，我對安德烈和團隊有信心渡過難關。對市場有深刻的了解和理解，這只是曇花一現，而不是方向的改變。另一方面，我還要指出，查理在他的指導幻燈片中跳過了瑞士 2023 年的自由現金流為 3.2 億至 3.5 億美元的事實，我在這裡猜測，安德烈，我認為它比 2022 年增長了 30% 到 40%。因此，儘管面臨挑戰是 André 正在努力解決收入和客戶層面的問題，我相信我們會克服這些挑戰，但該業務正在產生大量的自由現金流，並且正在朝著我們在進行收購時最初預期的各種自由現金流結果。

The next question comes from the line of Steve Malcolm with Redburn.

下一個問題來自 Steve Malcolm 與 Redburn 的對話。

And I'll go for 1.5 questions, 1 in the U.K., just a quick follow-up to an earlier question. First, just going back to the U.K. and the price moves look that you're enacting at the moment. I guess if I look at 2022, looking from the outside in, my perception would be that the fixed line price rises didn't learn probably quite as well as you'd hoped, and the mobile price rise maybe landed a bit better.

我將提出 1.5 個問題，其中 1 個在英國，只是對先前問題的快速跟進。首先，回到英國，價格走勢看起來就像你現在正在製定的那樣。我想如果我看看 2022 年，從外向內看，我的看法是固網價格上漲可能沒有你希望的那麼好，而移動價格上漲可能會好一點。

I don't know if that's right wrong but that's my impression. As you go into 2023, Lutz, you said you've got more tools at your disposal, but obviously, it's a very, very big price rise. So I guess the instinctive reaction would be that you're going to see more churn you're going to some more promotional activity.

我不知道這對不對，但這是我的印象。當你進入 2023 年時，Lutz，你說你有更多的工具可供使用，但顯然，這是一個非常非常大的價格上漲。所以我想本能的反應是你會看到更多的客戶流失，你會參加更多的促銷活動。

But could you just elaborate maybe on those actions that you can take to prevent that and give us sort of a bit more confidence that we don't see the ARPU reactions that we saw following the price rise last year, that would be great. And then just coming back to the point on Vodafone.

但是你能否詳細說明你可以採取哪些行動來防止這種情況發生，並讓我們更有信心，我們沒有看到去年價格上漲後我們看到的 ARPU 反應，那會很棒。然後回到沃達丰的話題。

Mike, you said the reason for the investment was not to sort of create more touch points of Vodafone was it exactly? Was it just because you thought the shares were cheap. And if that is the case, can you maybe give us some sort of guidelines as to what is sort of in and out your scope? Is it just sort of contiguous sector, telco, media, anything that you think is sort of opportunistic. Or does there have to be some kind of existing relationship for you to invest shareholders' money in stocks like Vodafone?

邁克，你說投資的原因不是為了創造更多沃達丰的接觸點，對嗎？是不是因為你認為股票便宜。如果是這樣的話，您能否就您的範圍內和範圍外的內容提供一些指導方針？它只是一種連續的部門，電信，媒體，任何你認為有點機會主義的東西。或者是否必須存在某種現有關係才能將股東的資金投資於沃達丰等股票？

Lutz, do you want to start with that?

Lutz，你想從那個開始嗎？

So I mean, your high-level observation is right for last year, but I think the reasons are a bit different. So if you park the price rise for a second, right? On the fixed side, customers are optimizing their bill because simply, right, the average ARPU is GBP 50. So if you want to optimize household spend, you look more at the fixed side at the mobile side. And so irrespective of price rise, customers are canceling their landline because they use their mobile and customers are optimizing and picking more of the video content they really need. This is what we have been seeing. On the mobile side, you don't see that. What you see on the mobile side, and that is they keep using their old phone for longer, right?

所以我的意思是，你去年的高層觀察是正確的，但我認為原因有點不同。因此，如果您將價格上漲暫停一秒鐘，對嗎？在固定方面，客戶正在優化他們的賬單，因為很簡單，平均 ARPU 是 50 英鎊。所以如果你想優化家庭支出，你更多地關注移動方面的固定方面。因此，無論價格上漲如何，客戶都在取消固定電話，因為他們使用手機，並且客戶正在優化和選擇更多他們真正需要的視頻內容。這就是我們一直看到的。在移動端，您看不到這一點。您在移動端看到的是，他們繼續使用舊手機的時間更長，對嗎？

So if you -- these are developments, there would have been happening with price drives or without price rise due to the cost and living crisis. Now price rise itself, and this is then the question, how do you define that? Last year, and I think this is what Mike said earlier on, if you would say, well, everything you take into account 2 months after customers have seen the first bill. Then you can say that also on the fixed side, we landed something like 50% of the price rise.

因此，如果你 - 這些是發展，那麼由於成本和生活危機，價格上漲或沒有價格上漲都會發生。現在價格上漲本身，這就是問題，你如何定義它？去年，我認為這就是 Mike 早些時候所說的，如果你會說，好吧，在客戶看到第一張賬單 2 個月後，你考慮的一切。然後你可以說，在固定方面，我們也實現了 50% 的價格上漲。

And on the mobile side, because it's only on airtime, not on hardware, the overall number of the price rise is much lower and it is embedded in the Ts and Cs. So you see barely very little, barely 0 or very little reaction to it. Now what does this mean for this year, right? And we are not guiding on fixed ARPU, but we have been -- we are doing a lot of things different. Number one, we are sending out the letters to customers over a period of 2 months and in a staggered approach. This is number one. That has 2 benefits. One, we always can ensure we have enough agents dealing with it, which weren't the case, 100% last year.

而在移動端，因為只是在通話時間上，而不是在硬件上，所以整體漲價的次數要少很多，而且是嵌入在Ts和Cs中。所以你幾乎看不到，幾乎看不到 0 或很少的反應。現在這對今年意味著什麼，對嗎？我們並沒有指導固定的 ARPU，但我們一直在做很多不同的事情。第一，我們將在 2 個月內以交錯的方式向客戶發送信件。這是第一。這有兩個好處。第一，我們總是可以確保我們有足夠的代理人來處理它，但情況並非如此，去年是 100%。

And second, we have really real-time data, so we can see how many customers are calling and what is the best possible retention for them in terms of customer and ARPU. And then we see within 24 hours delay, what is actually happening. And when you take this all into account, there's a lot of room for optimization. We can leverage convergence of fixed customers, we can sell mobile. We can sell in interesting content. We can sell in hardware. And I'm not disclosing anything, but so far, as I said early on, we are on plan with a fixed price rise. And on the mobile side, we have landed it also now, right? So it is communicated and out. And the reaction so far we have been seeing are not higher than a year ago. Hope that helps.

其次，我們有真正的實時數據，所以我們可以看到有多少客戶在打電話，以及在客戶和 ARPU 方面對他們來說最好的保留是什麼。然後我們會在延遲 24 小時內看到實際發生的情況。當您將所有這些都考慮在內時，就會有很大的優化空間。我們可以利用固定客戶的融合，我們可以銷售移動產品。我們可以出售有趣的內容。我們可以賣硬件。我沒有透露任何信息，但到目前為止，正如我早些時候所說，我們計劃固定提價。而在移動端，我們現在也落地了，對吧？所以它被傳達出來了。到目前為止，我們看到的反應並不比一年前高。希望有所幫助。

Yes, Vodafone, people -- we say publicly, yes, the stock seems undervalued to us. There's a lot of undervalued stocks out there, by the way. Ours included. And that's why we spent $1.7 billion last year buying it. But certainly, this one also looks undervalued with some near-term catalysts that should play out here, we think, in a positive way. And it was a relatively small investment if you look at the -- if you see through how we financed the position.

是的，沃達丰，人們——我們公開地說，是的，這隻股票對我們來說似乎被低估了。順便說一下，那裡有很多被低估的股票。我們的包括在內。這就是我們去年花費 17 億美元購買它的原因。但可以肯定的是，由於一些短期催化劑應該以積極的方式發揮作用，因此這一個看起來也被低估了。如果你看一下——如果你看透我們是如何為這個職位融資的，那麼這是一筆相對較小的投資。

Now we have a lot of touch points with Vodafone as I just mentioned, and I look forward to a very constructive dialogue with the current and future CEO, whoever that will be around all of those particular issues and if necessary, with the Board. So as I mentioned, we're not an activist here, but we certainly hope to be engaged in understanding of what their strategy is and to perhaps even influence that if it makes sense. But we're not doing this to create tension or stress. We're not trying to rattle the cages here. We thought it was an opportunistic transaction that was financed. We thought very effectively with relatively small amounts of capital we could put to risk in a stock that was at or near a 25-year low. So that's really the way to think about it. Are we going to do 10 more of these? No. No. But we will always be opportunistic in situations that we think are strategically and financially aligned. Go ahead.

正如我剛才提到的，現在我們與沃達丰有很多接觸點，我期待與現任和未來的首席執行官進行非常有建設性的對話，無論誰將圍繞所有這些特定問題，並在必要時與董事會進行對話。所以正如我提到的，我們不是這裡的積極分子，但我們當然希望參與了解他們的戰略是什麼，如果有意義的話甚至可能影響它。但我們這樣做並不是為了製造緊張或壓力。我們不想在這裡攪動籠子。我們認為這是一項獲得融資的機會主義交易。我們非常有效地認為，我們可以用相對較少的資金來冒險投資一隻處於或接近 25 年低點的股票。所以這才是真正的思考方式。我們要再做 10 個嗎？不，不。但在我們認為在戰略和財務上一致的情況下，我們總是會投機取巧。前進。

Sorry, I was just -- when you say catalyst, I mean, can you elaborate on what they may be.

抱歉，我只是 - 當你說催化劑時，我的意思是，你能詳細說明它們可能是什麼嗎？

I can't give you anything that hasn't been talked about 100 times publicly, U.K. mobile consolidation, rationalization, Spain and Italy, pending Vantage deal, towers in the U.K. and NL, a German strategy evolution, et cetera. I mean there's Africa, you just have to read the press. There's a handful for you right there. Rick, I don't know if we have time for 1 more or 6 minutes past. Shall I close it all.

我不能給你任何沒有被公開談論過 100 次的事情，英國的移動整合、合理化、西班牙和意大利、懸而未決的 Vantage 交易、英國和荷蘭的塔樓、德國的戰略演變等等。我的意思是有非洲，你只需要閱讀新聞。那裡有一把給你。 Rick，我不知道我們還有時間再講 1 分鐘還是 6 分鐘。我要把它全部關閉嗎？

let's take one more Mike and then shut it down.

讓我們再拿一個邁克，然後將其關閉。

All right. Thanks for hanging in. We'll take one more.

好的。感謝您的耐心等待。我們會再來一次。

We'll take the last question from Carl Murdock-Smith with Berenberg.

我們將與 Berenberg 一起回答 Carl Murdock-Smith 的最後一個問題。

Taking time for one last one. So I'll just ask one. I think Slide 9 is a very powerful one on the long-term buyback commitments over time. Obviously, you've committed to a floor of 10% of buyback this year. That commitment was first actually made 2.5 years ago at the Q2 2021 results and kind of I think that long-term commitment as also shown on Slide 9 is very, very important. Did you at all think about giving a longer-term buyback commitment rather than just committing to the 2023 buyback? And how should we be thinking about your ongoing commitments in future years?

花時間做最後一個。所以我只問一個。我認為幻燈片 9 在長期回購承諾方面非常強大。顯然，您已承諾今年回購的底限為 10%。這一承諾實際上是 2.5 年前在 2021 年第二季度的結果中做出的，我認為幻燈片 9 中也顯示的長期承諾非常非常重要。您是否考慮過做出更長期的回購承諾，而不是僅僅承諾 2023 年的回購？我們應該如何考慮您在未來幾年的持續承諾？

Yes. That's good question, Carl. I appreciate you asking that. We're not today providing any additional long-term guidance, but you don't have to do much reading between the lines to conclude based on everything I said in my remarks that we're committed to shareholder remuneration. So you should expect, over time, we'll continue to provide updates on that long-term strategy. And I think past is prologue. Hope that helps.

是的。這是個好問題，卡爾。我很感激你這麼問。我們今天不提供任何額外的長期指導，但您無需仔細閱讀字裡行間就可以根據我在評論中所說的一切得出我們致力於股東薪酬的結論。所以你應該期望，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續提供有關該長期戰略的更新。我認為過去是序幕。希望有所幫助。

You got it. Thanks, everybody, for hanging in. I appreciate you enduring the long remarks. If you're still on, we had a lot of info and a lot of talk about and a very strong '22, and I think all the building blocks in place for a strong '23 and most importantly, for value creation. So I appreciate your support, and we're always around for questions if you have any as a follow-up. Thanks, everyone.

你說對了。謝謝大家的耐心等待。我感謝你能忍受這麼長的評論。如果你還在繼續，我們有很多信息和很多討論，還有一個非常強大的 22 年，我認為所有的基石都已經到位，可以實現強大的 23 年，最重要的是，可以創造價值。因此，我感謝您的支持，如果您有任何後續行動，我們將隨時為您解答。感謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Liberty Global's Fourth Quarter 2022 Investor Call. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available in the Investor Relations section of Liberty Global's website. There, you can also find a copy of today's presentation material. Have a good day.

女士們，先生們，Liberty Global 2022 年第四季度投資者電話會議到此結束。提醒一下，Liberty Global 網站的投資者關係部分將提供通話重播。在那裡，您還可以找到一份今天的演示材料。祝你有美好的一天。