Laureate Education Inc (LAUR) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the fiscal year 2025 Laureate Education Inc earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions).

    您好,感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加 Laureate Education Inc 2025 財年財報電話會議。(操作說明)

  • Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Adam Morse, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

    請注意,今天的會議正在錄影。現在我謹將會議交給今天的第一位發言人,財務高級副總裁亞當·莫爾斯。請繼續。

  • Adam Morse - Senior Vice President of Finance

    Adam Morse - Senior Vice President of Finance

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us on today's call to discuss Laureate Education's fourth quarter and year end 2025 results. Joining me on the call today are Eilif Serck-Hanssen, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rick Buskirk, Chief Financial Officer.

    早安,感謝各位參加今天的電話會議,共同討論 Laureate Education 2025 年第四季和全年業績。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Eilif Serck-Hanssen 和財務長 Rick Buskirk。

  • Our earnings press release is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at laureate.net. We have also posted a supplementary presentation to the website, which we will be referring to during today's call. The call is being webcast and a complete recording will be available after the call.

    我們的獲利新聞稿已發佈在公司網站laureate.net的投資者關係欄位中。我們還在網站上發布了補充演示文稿,我們將在今天的電話會議上提及該演示文稿。本次通話將進行網路直播,通話結束後將提供完整錄音。

  • I would like to remind you that some of the information we are providing today, including, but not limited to, our financial and operational guidance, constitutes forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable US securities laws.

    我想提醒各位,我們今天提供的一些信息,包括但不限於我們的財務和運營指導,構成適用美國證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。

  • Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may change at any time, and therefore, our actual results may differ materially from those we expected. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations are disclosed in our annual report on Form 10-K filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission earlier this morning as well as other filings made with the SEC.

    前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響,這些因素可能隨時發生變化,因此,我們的實際結果可能與預期結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異的重要因素已在今天早些時候向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格年度報告以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中披露。

  • In addition, all forward-looking statements are based on current expectations as of the date of this conference call, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

    此外,所有前瞻性陳述均基於截至本次電話會議之日的當前預期,我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

  • Additionally, non-GAAP measures that we discuss, including and among others, adjusted EBITDA and its related margin, adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share, total cash and equivalents, net of total debt and free cash flow are also detailed and reconciled to their GAAP counterparts in our press release or supplementary presentation. Let me now turn the call over to Eilif.

    此外,我們討論的非GAAP指標,包括但不限於調整後的EBITDA及其相關利潤率、調整後的淨收入和調整後的每股收益、扣除總債務後的現金及等價物總額和自由現金流,也在我們的新聞稿或補充演示文稿中詳細列出並與相應的GAAP指標進行了核對。現在我把電話交給埃利夫。

  • Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Adam, and good morning, everyone. Laureate delivered another strong year of performance in 2025 with sustained revenue growth and expanding margins. Full year revenue reached $1.7 billion, and adjusted EBITDA was $519 million, both exceeding the guidance we provided last October.

    謝謝你,亞當,大家早安。2025年,Laureate再次取得強勁業績,營收持續成長,利潤率不斷擴大。全年營收達到 17 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 5.19 億美元,均超過了我們去年 10 月給出的預期。

  • Throughout 2025, we continue to execute on both our growth agenda and our productivity initiatives, which resulted in top line growth of 9% and a historical high margin of 30.5% for the full year. We maintained strong financial discipline throughout the year and closed 2025 with a net cash position.

    2025 年全年,我們持續推動成長計畫和生產力提升計劃,最終實現了全年營收成長 9%,利潤率達到歷史新高 30.5%。我們全年保持了嚴格的財務紀律,並在 2025 年結束時實現了淨現金頭寸。

  • Our cash accretive business model enabled us to return $217 million of capital to shareholders last year through our stock repurchase program. We remain well positioned to continue to invest in future growth and innovation while maintaining our commitment to returning excess capital to shareholders.

    我們以現金增值為導向的商業模式,使我們能夠透過股票回購計劃,在去年向股東返還 2.17 億美元的資本。我們仍處於有利地位,能夠繼續投資於未來的成長和創新,同時堅持將盈餘資本返還給股東的承諾。

  • Today, we are also pleased to announce that our Board of Directors has authorized an additional $150 million increase to our stock repurchase program, underscoring our focus on long-term value creation for shareholders. With nearly 500,000 students across Mexico and Peru, we have proven that excellence and scale can go hand-in-hand.

    今天,我們也欣然宣布,董事會已批准將股票回購計畫的資金增加 1.5 億美元,凸顯了我們對為股東創造長期價值的重視。我們在墨西哥和秘魯擁有近 50 萬名學生,證明卓越與規模可以並行不悖。

  • The scale that we have achieved provides significant competitive advantages in terms of our ability to invest in growth, innovation and academic excellence.

    我們所取得的規模為我們在投資成長、創新和學術卓越方面提供了顯著的競爭優勢。

  • In 2025, we continue to strengthen our academic offerings and made further investments in our campus networks, including the opening of two new campuses for our value brands, one in Monterrey, Mexico and one in Lima's Ate District. Both projects opened on time and on budget, and they performed as expected during their first year of ramp.

    2025 年,我們將繼續加強學術課程建設,並進一步投資校園網絡,包括為我們的價值品牌開設兩個新校區,一個位於墨西哥蒙特雷,另一個位於利馬的 Ate 區。這兩個項目均按時按預算完工,並在第一年的營運初期表現符合預期。

  • We also made further investments in our Health Sciences portfolio last year, including the opening of a new medical school and a new veterinary school. Health Science programs remain a key focus for our institutions given the long-term demand and workforce needs for graduates in that field of study.

    去年,我們也對健康科學領域進行了進一步投資,包括開設一所新的醫學院和一所新的獸醫學院。鑑於該領域畢業生的長期需求和就業需求,健康科學課程仍然是我們院校的重點發展方向。

  • Laureate also continues to lead the way in innovation, both inside and outside the classroom. The significant investments we have made in online capabilities position us as the leader in online education in both markets. We now serve more than 100,000 students in our fully online programs focused on working adults.

    勞瑞德教育集團在課堂內外都持續引領創新潮流。我們在線上能力方面的大量投資使我們成為這兩個市場線上教育領域的領導者。我們現在為超過 10 萬名學生提供完全線上的課程,這些課程主要針對在職成年人。

  • Within our back office, our innovation capabilities have been acknowledged by industry leaders such as Google, who recently recognized Laureate Mexico as the most advanced company in digital marketing maturity across all industries in Spanish-speaking Latin America.

    在我們的後台部門,我們的創新能力得到了谷歌等行業領導者的認可,谷歌最近將 Laureate Mexico 評為拉丁美洲西班牙語地區所有行業中數位行銷成熟度最高的公司。

  • These types of recognitions highlight Laureate's deep digital expertise, which in turn has put us at a significant competitive advantage when it comes to embedding AI tools into our student life cycle journey our investments, combined with innovation mindset continue to drive improvements in our academic quality and student outcomes. Throughout the network, our institutions continue to be recognized as leaders in the sector.

    這些類型的認可凸顯了 Laureate 在數位領域的深厚專業知識,這反過來又使我們在將人工智慧工具融入學生生命週期旅程方面擁有顯著的競爭優勢。我們的投資,加上創新思維,將持續推動學術品質和學生成就的提升。在整個網路中,我們的機構繼續被公認為該領域的領導者。

  • We are pleased to share the latest results from QS Stars, one of the world's leading independent university ranking and ratings organizations. For the third consecutive year, all our universities in Mexico and Peru have achieved five-star rating, the highest rating attainable in employability, online learning and social impact our institutions also received strong market recognition for academic excellence and brand leadership.

    我們很高興與大家分享來自 QS Stars 的最新結果,QS Stars 是世界領先的獨立大學排名和評級機構之一。連續第三年,我們在墨西哥和秘魯的所有大學都獲得了五星級評級,這是就業能力、線上學習和社會影響方面可獲得的最高評級。我們的院校也因其卓越的學術成就和品牌領導而獲得了強大的市場認可。

  • A few examples from this past year include, in Peru, UPC ranked the number one education brand for the fifth consecutive year by MERCO and received a five-star global university rating by QS Stars. In Mexico, UVM was ranked the second-best private university by Reader's Digest 2025 ranking, second only to Tec de Monterrey.

    過去一年的一些例子包括:在秘魯,UPC 連續第五年被 MERCO 評為排名第一的教育品牌,並獲得了 QS Stars 五星級全球大學評級。在墨西哥,佛蒙特大學在《讀者文摘》2025 年的排名中位列第二,成為第二好的私立大學,僅次於蒙特雷科技大學。

  • Our value brands in both markets, UPN in Peru and UNITEC in Mexico, were ranked in the top 10 in their respective countries by the same ranking agencies. I extend my deepest gratitude to our faculty and staff for their commitment to academic excellence and congratulate them on these outstanding recognitions. Looking ahead, we remain confident that the demand for quality higher education in both Mexico and Peru will continue to increase.

    我們在秘魯和墨西哥的超值品牌 UPN 和 UNITEC 均被同一排名機構評為各自國家前 10 名。我謹向我們全體教職員工致以最深切的感謝,感謝他們為追求卓越學術所做的貢獻,並祝賀他們獲得這些傑出的榮譽。展望未來,我們仍然相信墨西哥和秘魯對優質高等教育的需求將持續成長。

  • This demand is fueled by rising participation rate, strong wage premiums for graduates and the affordability of our programs. Additionally, the private sector, which accounts for over 55% of the combined university seats in the two countries, plays a critical role in the market due to limited public resources.

    參與率不斷上升、畢業生薪資溢價高以及我們課程價格合理,都推動了這項需求。此外,由於公共資源有限,私營部門在市場中發揮至關重要的作用,其在兩國大學學位總數中佔超過 55%。

  • For 2026, our guidance called for US dollar reported revenue growth of 11% to 12%, of which approximately 5 points is attributable to the more favorable FX environment. Further, we expect 50 basis points of margin expansion during 2026, reflecting continued operating leverage from growth initiatives despite some incremental costs associated with the opening of new campus locations.

    我們對 2026 年的預測是,以美元計價的收入成長 11% 至 12%,其中約 5 個百分點歸因於更有利的外匯環境。此外,我們預計 2026 年利潤率將擴大 50 個基點,這反映出儘管開設新校區會帶來一些額外成本,但成長措施仍能持續發揮營運槓桿作用。

  • We see sustained growth opportunities in both markets, including building additional new campuses for our value brands in new cities and site locations over the next five-year period and have already begun to procure land for some of these new sites.

    我們看到這兩個市場都有持續的成長機會,包括在未來五年內在新的城市和地點為我們的價值品牌建立更多的新園區,並且已經開始為其中一些新地點購買土地。

  • Additionally, we are expanding our addressable market through continued AI-enabled investments in digital education with a significant focus on fully online segment for working adults. Many of our AI tools that we have developed for the online portfolio are also being deployed to our face-to-face students and short course upskilling efforts.

    此外,我們正在透過持續投資人工智慧賦能的數位教育來擴大我們的目標市場,尤其專注於在職成年人的全線上教育領域。我們為線上作品集開發的許多人工智慧工具也正在部署到我們的面授學生和短期課程技能提升工作。

  • From a macroeconomic perspective, we expect Mexico's GDP growth for 2026 to be relatively modest, albeit slightly better than 2025. The key upcoming event to watch is the USMCA trade negotiations. President Sheinbaum's pragmatic approach to managing the US, Mexico relationship has helped maintain a constructive tone as discussions are being kicked off.

    從宏觀經濟角度來看,我們預計墨西哥 2026 年的 GDP 成長將相對溫和,儘管會比 2025 年略好。即將到來的最值得關注的事件是美墨加協定貿易談判。辛鮑姆總統務實的美國-墨西哥關係管理方式,有助於在討論啟動之際保持建設性的氛圍。

  • Many economists anticipate a favorable outcome and are projecting an increase in economic activity for Mexico starting in the second half of 2026, setting the stage for a more robust GDP growth in 2027. In Peru, the economy continues to perform solidly with strong domestic demand and a favorable macro environment.

    許多經濟學家預計結果將十分有利,並預測墨西哥的經濟活動將從 2026 年下半年開始增加,為 2027 年更強勁的 GDP 成長奠定基礎。在秘魯,強勁的內需和良好的宏觀環境推動下,經濟持續保持穩健成長。

  • Supportive monetary conditions, strong commodity prices and new mining projects should continue to underpin strong economic activity throughout the year, even against the backdrop of a presidential election.

    即使在總統選舉的背景下,有利的貨幣環境、強勁的大宗商品價格和新的礦業項目也應繼續支撐全年強勁的經濟活動。

  • From a supply and demand perspective in Peru, we continue to rapidly scale our fully online offerings but are somewhat capacity constrained in our face-to-face campus operations. We expect that to be alleviated following the launch of our second new campus that opens in March of 2027 in South Lima with additional new campus projects beyond that already in the pipeline.

    從秘魯的供需情況來看,我們持續快速擴大完全線上課程的規模,但在面對面的校園運作方面,我們的產能受到一定限制。我們預計,隨著我們在南利馬的第二個新校區於 2027 年 3 月開放,這種情況將會得到緩解,此外,還有其他新校區項目正在籌備中。

  • That concludes my prepared remarks, and I will now turn the call over to Rick Buskirk for a more comprehensive financial overview of the fourth quarter and full year 2025 performance as well as further details on our 2026 outlook. Rick.

    我的演講到此結束,現在我將把電話交給里克·巴斯克,讓他對 2025 年第四季和全年業績進行更全面的財務概述,並進一步介紹我們 2026 年的展望。里克。

  • Richard Buskirk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Richard Buskirk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you, Eilif. Before I discuss our financial performance for the quarter, let me provide a few important reminders on seasonality.

    謝謝你,埃利夫。在討論本季財務表現之前,我想先就季節性問題做幾點重要的提醒。

  • Campus-based higher education is a seasonal business. Although the fourth quarter is not a large intake period, it represents a strong earnings quarter for the company as classes are in session for much of the period.

    校園高等教育是一個季節性行業。雖然第四季不是招生高峰期,但由於大部分時間都在上課,因此對公司而言,這是一個盈利強勁的季度。

  • In addition, the timing of the start of our classes can shift year-over-year depending on various factors such as when public universities begin classes or when holidays occur.

    此外,我們的課程開始時間每年都會有所不同,這取決於各種因素,例如公立大學何時開學或假期何時到來。

  • This, in turn, affects the timing of enrollments and revenue recognition and quarter-over-quarter comparability. In 2025, the beginning of classes, particularly in Peru, started later versus 2024, extending the enrollment cycle into mid-April and beyond the first quarter cutoff.

    這反過來又會影響招生時間和收入確認時間以及季度間的可比較性。2025 年,開學時間(尤其是在秘魯)比 2024 年晚,導致入學週期延長至 4 月中旬,甚至超過了第一季的截止日期。

  • As a result, we had an intra-year shift in timing that resulted in approximately $25 million of revenue and $21 million in adjusted EBITDA to be shifted from earlier in the year to the fourth quarter.

    因此,我們進行了年內時間調整,導致約 2500 萬美元的收入和 2100 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 從年初轉移到第四季度。

  • Let's start with Pages 11 and 12 of the supplementary presentation, which highlights our operating and financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $541 million and adjusted EBITDA was $204 million.

    讓我們從補充簡報的第 11 頁和第 12 頁開始,其中重點介紹了我們第四季度和全年的營運和財務表現。第四季營收為 5.41 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 2.04 億美元。

  • Both metrics were ahead of the guidance we provided three months ago, aided primarily by improved currency rates. On an organic constant currency basis and adjusted for the academic calendar shift discussed earlier, revenue in the fourth quarter was up 10% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA increased by 14% fourth quarter net income was $172 million, resulting in earnings per share of $1.17 per share on a reported basis.

    這兩項指標均優於我們三個月前所給的預期,主要得益於匯率的改善。以有機固定匯率計算,並根據前面討論過的學年日曆調整進行調整後,第四季度收入同比增長 10%,調整後的 EBITDA 增長 14%,第四季度淨收入為 1.72 億美元,按報告基準計算,每股收益為 1.17 美元。

  • Fourth quarter adjusted net income was $112 million, and adjusted earnings per share was $0.76 per share, an increase of 46% as compared to the fourth quarter of prior year.

    第四季調整後淨利為 1.12 億美元,調整後每股收益為 0.76 美元,比上年同期成長 46%。

  • Now moving to full year results. For 2025, new enrollments increased 8% versus prior year, and total enrollments were up 5%. Full year revenue was $1.702 billion and adjusted EBITDA was $519 million. This resulted in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.5%, which is a new historic high for Laureate.

    現在來看全年業績。2025 年,新生入學人數比前一年增加了 8%,總入學人數增加了 5%。全年營收為17.02億美元,調整後EBITDA為5.19億美元。這使得 Laureate 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率達到 30.5%,創下歷史新高。

  • On an organic constant currency basis, revenue for the year increased by 8% and adjusted EBITDA was up 13%, resulting in a 131 basis points improvement in margins, led by a 164 basis points increase in Mexico.

    以有機成長固定匯率計算,本年度營收成長 8%,調整後 EBITDA 成長 13%,利潤率提高了 131 個基點,其中墨西哥的利潤率提高了 164 個基點。

  • Our continued focus on productivity is yielding strong results. Full year 2025 net income was $284 million, resulting in earnings per share of $1.89 per share on a reported basis.

    我們持續專注於生產力提升,並已取得顯著成效。2025 年全年淨收入為 2.84 億美元,以報告基準計算,每股收益為 1.89 美元。

  • Adjusted net income was $256 million and adjusted earnings per share was $1.72 per share, an increase of 22% as compared to prior year. Let me now provide some additional color on the performance of Mexico and Peru, starting with Page 14. Please note that all comparisons versus prior year are on an organic and constant currency basis.

    經調整後的淨收入為 2.56 億美元,經調整後的每股收益為 1.72 美元,比上年增長 22%。現在讓我從第 14 頁開始,對墨西哥和秘魯的表現進行一些補充說明。請注意,所有與去年同期相比的數據均以實際成長率和固定匯率為基礎。

  • Let's start with Mexico. New enrollments increased 5% for the year, led by growth in fully online programs focused on working adults across both our premium and value brands. Total enrollments in 2025 increased 4% compared to the prior year or 5% same store.

    我們先從墨西哥說起。今年新入學人數增加了 5%,這主要得益於我們面向在職成年人的全線上課程的成長,這些課程涵蓋了我們的高端品牌和經濟型品牌。2025 年的總入學人數比前一年增加 4%,同店入學人數增加 5%。

  • As Eilif referenced earlier, Mexico's macroeconomic environment has recently been characterized by slower growth. Our results underscore the resilience of our operating model and the value proposition we offer to students and their families.

    正如埃利夫之前提到的,墨西哥的宏觀經濟環境近期的特徵是成長放緩。我們的成果凸顯了我們營運模式的韌性以及我們為學生及其家庭提供的價值主張。

  • Mexico's revenue for the fourth quarter increased 12% compared to the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was up 10% year-over-year. For full year 2025, revenue growth of 9% was driven by a 6% increase in average total enrollments and 3% of price, mix.

    墨西哥第四季的營收比去年同期成長了 12%。第四季調整後 EBITDA 年成長 10%。2025 年全年,營收成長 9%,主要得益於平均總入學人數成長 6% 和價格組合成長 3%。

  • Overall, pricing for the year was in line with our cost of inflation for our traditional face-to-face students. Adjusted EBITDA increased 17% in 2025 versus the prior year period, expanding Mexico's margins by 164 basis points to 26.1%, driven by strong operating leverage from revenue growth and productivity gains.

    整體而言,本年度的定價與我們傳統面授學生的通貨膨脹成本相符。2025 年調整後 EBITDA 比上年同期成長 17%,墨西哥的利潤率提高了 164 個基點,達到 26.1%,這主要得益於營收成長和生產力提高帶來的強勁經營槓桿效應。

  • Let's now transition to Peru on Slide 15. New enrollments increased 13% for the year, driven by double-digit growth in our fully online programs that serve working adults as we continue to scale in that segment. Total enrollments for the year increased by 7% compared to the prior year.

    現在讓我們轉到第 15 張投影片,看看秘魯的情況。今年新入學人數增加了 13%,這主要得益於我們面向在職成年人的全線上課程實現了兩位數的成長,我們在該領域的規模也在不斷擴大。與前一年相比,本年度總入學人數增加了7%。

  • Revenue growth for the fourth quarter was 22% and adjusted EBITDA increased 49% year-over-year, primarily due to the timing of the academic calendar I referenced earlier. When adjusted for the timing of the academic calendar, fourth quarter revenue increased 8%, while adjusted EBITDA was up 16%.

    第四季營收成長22%,調整後EBITDA年增49%,這主要是由於我前面提到的學年安排所致。經調整學年安排後,第四季營收成長 8%,調整後 EBITDA 成長 16%。

  • For full year 2025, revenue in Peru increased 7% year-over-year, driven by a 6% increase in average total enrollments. Overall, pricing was in line with our cost of inflation for traditional face-to-face students. We are seeing a price, mix impact on average revenue per student due to the higher growth rate of our fully online programs, which are offered at a lower price point.

    2025 年全年,秘魯的收入年增 7%,這主要得益於平均總入學人數增加 6%。整體而言,定價與我們傳統面授學生的成本通膨率相符。由於我們完全線上課程的成長率較高,且價格較低,因此我們看到價格和課程組合對每位學生的平均收入產生了影響。

  • We expect that mix impact to continue in 2026 as we scale up our online segment in Peru. Adjusted EBITDA increased 9% versus the prior year with a margin expansion of 54 basis points.

    我們預計,隨著我們在秘魯擴大線上業務規模,這種組合效應將在 2026 年繼續存在。調整後的 EBITDA 比上年成長 9%,利潤率擴大 54 個基點。

  • Let me now briefly turn to our balance sheet. Laureate ended the year with $147 million in cash and $129 million in gross debt for a net cash position of $18 million. During 2025, we repurchased $217 million of common stock under our existing authorization.

    現在讓我簡要地看一下我們的資產負債表。Laureate 公司年底現金餘額為 1.47 億美元,總負債為 1.29 億美元,淨現金部位為 1,800 萬美元。2025 年,我們根據現有授權回購了價值 2.17 億美元的普通股。

  • Since 2019, total capital returned to shareholders has exceeded $3 billion through share purchases, cash distributions and cash dividends. Today, we announced that our Board has authorized a $150 million increase to our share repurchase program.

    自 2019 年以來,透過股票回購、現金分紅和現金股息,返還給股東的總資本已超過 30 億美元。今天,我們宣布董事會已批准將股票回購計畫增加 1.5 億美元。

  • This authorization is supported by our strong balance sheet, cash accretive business model and disciplined capital allocation. As a result of this upsizing, a total of $181 million is available under the current authorization as of year-end 2025.

    這項授權得益於我們強勁的資產負債表、現金增值型商業模式和嚴謹的資本配置。由於此次擴容,截至 2025 年底,在現有授權下共有 1.81 億美元可用。

  • We expect to continue returning excess capital to shareholders in 2026. Let's now transition to our discussion on guidance. We remain excited about the growth opportunities in Mexico and Peru and expect continued operating momentum in both markets during 2026.

    我們預計將在 2026 年繼續向股東返還超額資本。現在我們來討論一下指導問題。我們仍然對墨西哥和秘魯的成長機會感到興奮,並預計在 2026 年這兩個市場將繼續保持營運勢頭。

  • A little context by market before getting into the ranges, reiterating some of what Eilif discussed earlier. In Mexico, the macroeconomic conditions are expected to remain soft for much of 2026, aligned with the operating environment in 2025.

    在深入探討價格區間之前,先簡單介紹一下市場背景,並重申一下 Eilif 之前討論過的一些內容。預計墨西哥的宏觀經濟狀況在 2026 年的大部分時間裡仍將保持疲軟,與 2025 年的經營環境一致。

  • We expect improved conditions in the second half of the year and as we head into 2027 following the conclusion of the renegotiated USMCA agreement.

    我們預計,隨著重新談判的美墨加協定的完成,下半年以及進入 2027 年,情況將會好轉。

  • In Peru, we intend to continue to rapidly scale our fully online offerings. As we are in the process of building incremental face-to-face capacity with our series of planned new campus launches, strong fully online growth is expected to continue to create a price, mix impact on average revenue per student.

    在秘魯,我們計劃繼續快速擴大我們的全線上服務規模。隨著我們計劃推出一系列新校區,逐步增加面對面授課能力,預計強勁的純線上教學成長將繼續對每位學生的平均收入產生價格和組合方面的影響。

  • Lastly, we are operating in an FX environment where the Mexican peso and the Peruvian sol have appreciated significantly against the US dollar versus the same time last year. This FX environment is currently expected to create some favorable foreign currency translation effects for us as we start the year.

    最後,我們目前所處的匯率環境是,墨西哥比索和秘魯索爾兌美元匯率較去年同期大幅升值。預計當前的外匯環境將在年初為我們帶來一些有利的外匯折算效應。

  • With that context, let me now move to our guidance ranges. Based on our assumed FX rates, we expect full year 2026 results to be as follows, total enrollments to be in the range of 516,000 to 521,000 students, reflecting growth of 4% to 5% versus 2025, revenues to be in the range of $1.890 billion to $1.905 billion, reflecting growth of 11% to 12% on an as-reported basis and 6% to 7% on an organic constant currency basis versus 2025.

    有了以上背景,現在讓我來談談我們的指導範圍。根據我們假設的匯率,我們預計 2026 年全年業績如下:總入學人數將在 516,000 至 521,000 名學生之間,比 2025 年增長 4% 至 5%;收入將在 18.9 億美元至 19.05 億美元之間,按基準增長 11% 至 19.05 億美元之間,按基準增長 11% 報告按固定增長率(按固定增長率 6% 至 6% 增長率7%。

  • Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $583 million to $593 million, reflecting growth of 12% to 14% on an as-reported basis and 7% to 9% on an organic constant currency basis versus 2025. This would result in an increase in adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 50 basis points at the midpoint of our guidance on a reported basis.

    調整後 EBITDA 將在 5.83 億美元至 5.93 億美元之間,按報告基準計算增長 12% 至 14%,以有機固定匯率計算增長 7% 至 9%(與 2025 年相比)。按報告基準計算,這將使調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率提高約 50 個基點(以我們指導值的中點計算)。

  • For 2026, we expect adjusted EBITDA to unlevered free cash flow conversion of approximately 50% on a reported basis, supporting our continued emphasis on return of capital to shareholders. Lastly, today, we are introducing adjusted earnings per share guidance for 2026 with adjusted earnings per share to be expected to be in the range of $1.95 to $2.03 per share, reflecting growth of 13% to 18% versus 2025 on a reported basis. This non-GAAP measure is intended to provide greater transparency into our underlying profitability and improve comparability across periods.

    2026 年,我們預期調整後的 EBITDA 與未槓桿自由現金流的轉換率(以報告基準計算)約為 50%,這支持了我們繼續重視向股東返還資本的做法。最後,今天,我們發布了 2026 年調整後每股收益預期,預計調整後每股收益將在 1.95 美元至 2.03 美元之間,與 2025 年相比,按報告基準計算增長 13% 至 18%。這項非GAAP指標旨在提高我們潛在獲利能力的透明度,並提高不同時期之間的可比較性。

  • Now turning to our first quarter guidance. As a reminder, Q1 is a seasonally low quarter as classes are largely out of session in January and much of February. In addition, in terms of the seasonality for 2026, we will have some intra-year calendar timing as outlined on Slide 22 of our presentation.

    現在來看我們第一季的業績預期。提醒一下,第一季是季節性淡季,因為1月和2月大部分時間學校都放假。此外,就 2026 年的季節性而言,我們將有一些年內日曆時間安排,如我們在簡報第 22 頁中所概述的。

  • For the first quarter specifically, approximately $9 million of revenue and related profitability is expected to shift out of the first quarter to later in the year. With that context, for the first quarter of 2026, we expect revenue between $261 million and $265 million and adjusted EBITDA between negative $20 million to negative $17 million, reflecting growth in fixed costs and investments in our new campuses during a largely out-of-session period. That concludes my prepared remarks. Eilif, I'm handing it back to you for closing comments.

    具體到第一季度,預計約有 900 萬美元的收入和相關利潤將從第一季轉移到今年稍後。基於此背景,我們預計 2026 年第一季的收入將在 -2000 萬美元至 -1700 萬美元之間,這反映了固定成本的增長以及在大部分非學期期間對新校區的投資。我的發言稿到此結束。艾利夫,現在把發言權交還給你,請你做總結發言。

  • Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Rick. 2025 was another strong year for Laureate, in which we continue to deliver on our commitments through disciplined execution, focused growth and innovation investments and sustained operational excellence. We see attractive growth opportunities across Mexico and Peru in the years to come and remain committed to executing on our growth agenda.

    謝謝你,里克。 2025年對Laureate來說又是強勁的一年,我們透過嚴謹的執行、專注的成長和創新投資以及持續的卓越運營,繼續履行我們的承諾。我們看到未來幾年墨西哥和秘魯蘊藏著巨大的成長機遇,並將繼續致力於執行我們的成長計畫。

  • As an established emerging market company with developed market governance, we look forward to another year of value creation for all stakeholders in 2026, guided by our mission to expand access to high quality, affordable higher education and to positively impact the students and communities we serve operator, that concludes our prepared remarks, and we're now happy to take any questions from the participants.

    作為一家擁有成熟市場治理的新興市場公司,我們期待在 2026 年繼續為所有利益相關者創造價值,秉承我們的使命,擴大高品質、負擔得起的高等教育的普及範圍,並對我們服務的學生和社區產生積極影響。以上是我們準備好的發言,現在我們很樂意接受與會者的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions).

    (操作說明)

  • Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

    Jeff Silber,BMO資本市場。

  • Jeffrey Silber - Analyst

    Jeffrey Silber - Analyst

  • Thank you so much. You mentioned in your prepared remarks potential new campus openings. And I'm just curious, one, how far in advance do you have to make that decision in order to make sure that you've got the capacity? And two, how do you decide whether you're going to create your own versus potentially buying a campus that already exists?

    太感謝了。您在準備好的演講稿中提到了可能開設新校區的問題。我很好奇,第一,為了確保有足夠的產能,你需要提前多久做出決定?其次,如何決定要創建自己的校園,還是購買現有的校園?

  • Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Jeff, good morning, this is Eilif. In terms of timing, it takes about 18 to 24 months to launch a new campus, and that includes the time to find the land, get the licenses, the permits, the zoning, build the campus and then launch first in date. In terms of buy versus build, it really is an IRR question.

    傑夫,早安,我是埃利夫。從時間上看,啟動新校區大約需要 18 到 24 個月,這包括尋找土地、獲得許可證、執照、分區、建造校區以及按日期啟動的時間。從購買還是自建的角度來看,這實際上是一個內部收益率(IRR)的問題。

  • Typically, we have been building, then we get it exactly to the stack. It takes a little longer to ramp versus buying. But typically, it's more economical for us to just build the campus. We have the playbook and then we get the operating model just the way that we want it.

    通常情況下,我們會先構建,然後將其精確地應用到堆疊中。與購買相比,逐步增加投入需要更長的時間。但通常情況下,對我們來說,直接建造校園更經濟。我們有了行動方案,然後我們就能按照我們想要的方式建立營運模式。

  • Jeffrey Silber - Analyst

    Jeffrey Silber - Analyst

  • Okay, that's helpful. And then also, you talked about AI and how you're using it in your business. The market is very jittery these days about AI disruption. Do you see any parts of your business that might be at risk from AI disruption?

    好的,這很有幫助。此外,您還談到了人工智慧以及您如何在業務中使用它。目前市場對人工智慧帶來的顛覆性影響感到非常不安。您認為貴公司哪些業務環節可能會受到人工智慧顛覆性影響?

  • Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think AI is going to be our friend. AI is going to improve retention. It is going to improve the learning outcomes. It is going to continue for us to expand the quality access to quality education in the markets where we are serving.

    我認為人工智慧將會成為我們的朋友。人工智慧將提高用戶留存率。這將有助於提高學習效果。我們將繼續努力,在我們服務的市場中擴大優質教育的普及範圍。

  • And I think the focus for us is to make sure that we are launching the programs for where tomorrow's jobs reside. And I think that is the number one priority for us. And then that's followed closely by making sure that we are leveraging AI to continue to improve outcomes and reduce cost of education.

    我認為我們的重點是確保我們推出的項目能夠滿足未來就業的需求。我認為這是我們的首要任務。接下來,我們要確保利用人工智慧不斷改善教育成果並降低教育成本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Marcelo Santos, JPMorgan.

    馬塞洛桑托斯,摩根大通。

  • Marcelo Santos - Analyst

    Marcelo Santos - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning to all. Thanks for taking my questions. I have also two. The first question is on the guidance for 2026 in terms of FX-neutral revenue growth, it implies some deceleration versus what was presented in 2025 could you just please comment what the sources are, the ups and downs that lead to this slight deceleration in the FX neutral. That's the first question.

    大家早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。我也有兩個。第一個問題是關於 2026 年按匯率中性計算的收入成長指引,這意味著與 2025 年的指引相比有所放緩。請問您能否解釋一下導致匯率中性計算收入略微放緩的依據是什麼,以及哪些因素導致了這種放緩?這是第一個問題。

  • And the second question is just asking about the expansion of distance learning in Peru. I wanted to ask about the market. Are you noticing a ticket discipline in the market? Or are you noticing like the other players who are launching being more aggressive? Just wanted your comment to see how the market is developing with this new technology. Thank you.

    第二個問題只是詢問秘魯遠距教育的擴展。我想了解一下市場狀況。您是否注意到市場上的票價管理規範?或者,你是否像其他新玩家一樣,注意到自己變得更加激進?我只是想聽聽您的意見,看看這項新技術對市場發展有何影響。謝謝。

  • Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great. Rick, do you want to take the guidance. And I'll take the online.

    偉大的。瑞克,你想接受指導嗎?我選擇線上課程。

  • Richard Buskirk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Richard Buskirk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Sure. Marcelo, good morning, just to start off, we have shown a consistent ability to continue, as you know, to grow the business in both strong economic times as well as softer macroeconomic times, showing the resiliency of our business model and our ability to expand margins.

    當然。馬塞洛,早安。首先,如您所知,我們已經展現出持續成長業務的能力,無論是在經濟強勁時期還是宏觀經濟疲軟時期,這都體現了我們商業模式的韌性以及我們擴大利潤率的能力。

  • Specific to 2026, in Mexico, as we noted in our opening remarks, the softer macroeconomic conditions are impacting our outlook. And as a reminder, the primary intake last September for Mexico was up 2% reported, 4% same store, excluding closures for new enrollments and 4% for total enrollments.

    具體到 2026 年,正如我們在開場白中提到的,墨西哥的宏觀經濟狀況疲軟正在影響我們的展望。提醒一下,去年 9 月墨西哥的初次入學人數報告增加了 2%,同店入學人數增加了 4%(不包括因關店而導致的入學人數減少),總入學人數增加了 4%。

  • The results from that intake carry much of our volume for 2026 in Mexico until we hit the primary intake again in Q3 in the fall. So we do expect macro conditions to be better in the second half of the year following the conclusion of USMCA. That may benefit this year's primary intake, but it happens later in the year and be felt more in 2027.

    這次進口的結果將決定我們在 2026 年墨西哥的進口量,直到秋季第三季我們再次迎來主要進口。因此,我們預期隨著美墨加協定的達成,下半年宏觀經濟狀況將會改善。這或許對今年的主要攝取量有利,但這種情況會在今年稍後發生,並且會在 2027 年感受到更大的影響。

  • So that's Mexico in Peru, though the macroeconomic backdrop is stronger, we've been very successful historically of filling up capacity in that market and are more capacity constrained. And as a result, we're addressing that through a series of new campus launches, including one in which we'll launch in March of next year.

    所以,這就是墨西哥在秘魯的情況,儘管宏觀經濟背景更強,但我們在歷史上一直非常成功地填滿了該市場的產能,現在產能更加受限。因此,我們正在透過一系列新校區的啟動來解決這個問題,其中包括明年三月即將啟動的新校區。

  • So those two factors are creating a slight deceleration year-over-year, but we're still very, very encouraged about it. And on top of that, we're expanding, as you saw, margins by 50 basis points. That 50 basis points margin expansion is including the netting effect of investments in these new campuses, which creates an offset around 25 basis points.

    因此,這兩個因素導致同比增速略有放緩,但我們仍然對此感到非常非常鼓舞。除此之外,正如你所看到的,我們的利潤率還將提高 50 個基點。這 50 個基點的利潤率擴張包含了對這些新校區投資的淨效應,這造成了約 25 個基點的抵銷。

  • So we're absorbing that 25 basis points within the 50 basis points margin expansion. So again, a little deceleration, but we feel great about this business and our ability to grow in good economic times and slower economic times, and that's some more clarity for you. I'll pause there and see if you have any more questions.

    因此,我們在 50 個基點的利潤率擴張中吸收了這 25 個基點。所以,成長速度略有放緩,但我們對這項業務以及我們在經濟繁榮時期和經濟衰退時期的成長能力都充滿信心,這應該能讓你們更清楚地了解情況。我先停一下,看看你還有沒有其他問題。

  • Marcelo Santos - Analyst

    Marcelo Santos - Analyst

  • And my next question is on guidance.

    我的下一個問題是關於指導方面的。

  • Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Great, your second question was on online or distance learning in Peru. That is accelerating really, really well for us. The market is very receptive to the innovative product portfolio that we have launched over the last couple of years. We are growing robustly in that market.

    太好了,你的第二個問題是關於秘魯的線上或遠距教育。這對我們來說進展得非常順利。市場對我們近兩年推出的創新產品組合反應熱烈。我們在該市場實現了強勁成長。

  • And as I think I've mentioned before, it is a product that is designed for the working adult consumer. So it is very distinct and separate for the face-to-face undergraduate programs that we are selling to young students, high school leavers.

    正如我之前提到的,這是一款專為成年上班族消費者設計的產品。因此,對於我們面向年輕學生、高中畢業生的面對面本科課程而言,它是非常獨特且獨立的。

  • And for that reason, there's very little cannibalization between these two product offerings. In terms of pricing, we have done our price volume elasticity studies.

    正因如此,這兩款產品之間的市場蠶食現象非常少。在定價方面,我們已經進行了價格-銷售彈性研究。

  • And so we have been a little bit more cautious in taking pricing increases in the working adult segment in favor of rapid growth in that market. So ARPS are flattish in the online segment, but the growth is very robust.

    因此,為了追求在職成年人市場的快速成長,我們在漲價方面一直比較謹慎。因此,線上領域的平均每筆交易金額 (ARPS) 較為平穩,但成長勢頭非常強勁。

  • Marcelo Santos - Analyst

    Marcelo Santos - Analyst

  • Okay, very clear. Thank you both for the answers.

    好的,非常清楚。謝謝兩位的解答。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lucas Nagano, Morgan Stanley.

    盧卡斯·納加諾,摩根士丹利。

  • Lucas Nagano - Analyst

    Lucas Nagano - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, Ali, Rick, and Adam. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is related to the adjusted EPS guidance. So the question is below the EBITDA line, there is any implied change material change in your assumptions versus 2025, either in capital structure or taxes.

    嘿,早上好,阿里、瑞克和亞當。謝謝您回答我的問題。第一個問題與調整後的每股盈餘預期有關。所以問題在於 EBITDA 線以下,與 2025 年相比,您的假設是否存在任何隱含的重大變化,無論是資本結構還是稅收。

  • And the second question is about the capacity constraint in Peru. To what extent should it affect new enrollments and price/mix this year based on what you said these drivers should be addressed next year with the new campuses. Thank you.

    第二個問題是關於秘魯的產能限制。根據您所說的,這些因素應該在明年透過新校區的建設來解決,那麼今年這些因素應該在多大程度上影響新生入學人數和價格/產品組合?謝謝。

  • Richard Buskirk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Richard Buskirk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, sure. And in terms of our adjusted EPS guidance, we're happy to provide that. Number one, it's an important metric for us as we continue to move forward. It's a high-quality company. Relative to last year, I think you'll see a small increase in G&A as we bring new campuses online.

    當然可以。至於我們調整後的每股盈餘預期,我們很樂意提供。首先,這是我們繼續前進過程中一個重要的衡量指標。這是一家高品質的公司。與去年相比,隨著新校區的上線,我認為管理費用會略有增加。

  • I think you will also see that taxes should be generally in line, slightly improved. And then lastly, you'll see a little bit higher interest income because of the funding of our new campuses in Peru.

    我認為您也會發現稅收總體上應該保持正常水平,甚至略有改善。最後,由於我們在秘魯新建校區的資金投入,您會看到利息收入略有增加。

  • Lucas Nagano - Analyst

    Lucas Nagano - Analyst

  • Perfect, very clear.

    完美,非常清晰。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • As a reminder to ask a question? Oh. I'm sorry?

    提醒自己提問?哦,你說什麼?

  • Richard Buskirk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Richard Buskirk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Sorry, I think in your second question was related to.

    抱歉,我覺得你的第二個問題與此有關。

  • Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Second question on capacity constraints. We are running higher utilization in Mexico than in Peru. The same store has a little bit more restrictions it's not material at this point, but it's one of the reasons why we're adding more capacity with new campus launches still in Lima for our value brand as well as adding more classrooms to existing campuses in Peru.

    關於產能限制的第二個問題。我們在墨西哥的產能利用率比秘魯高。同一家商店的限制稍微多一些,目前來說這並不重要,但這正是我們為利馬的超值品牌增加新校區容量,以及在秘魯現有校區增加更多教室的原因之一。

  • Richard Buskirk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Richard Buskirk - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And Lucas, just to follow on to what Eilif said, I think you saw very strong fully online growth last year in Peru. As a result, we had 7% volume growth, 7% revenue growth. If you look at average enrollment, it was 6%.

    盧卡斯,我接著艾利夫剛才說的,我認為去年秘魯的線上業務成長非常強勁。因此,我們的銷量成長了 7%,營收成長了 7%。如果看平均入學率,是 6%。

  • So it's about 1% price, mix. I think you'll see a big impact of price, mix this year as well in Peru as we continue to really provide some leadership position in the fully online segment and go after that pattern should recur in 2026.

    所以價格和混合比例大約是 1%。我認為今年秘魯的價格和產品組合也會受到很大影響,因為我們將繼續在全線上領域保持領先地位,並力爭在 2026 年重現這一模式。

  • Lucas Nagano - Analyst

    Lucas Nagano - Analyst

  • Okay, very clear, thank you.

    好的,非常清楚,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Eduardo Resende, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的 Eduardo Resende。

  • Eduardo Resende - Analyst

    Eduardo Resende - Analyst

  • Good morning, thanks for the opportunity. I got just one question from my side. Talking about the softer economic activity expected in Peru this year, especially with discussions regarding USMCA, do you see any risk of this potentially impacting the company's ongoing investment plans in the country and how do you see tuitions evolving the scenario and your capacity to pass through the costs in Mexico this year? So that's all from my side. Thank you.

    早安,謝謝您給我這個機會。我這邊只有一個問題。談到今年秘魯經濟活動預計放緩,尤其是在有關美墨加協定的討論中,您認為這是否有可能影響公司在該國的持續投資計畫?您認為學費將如何影響這個局面?今年在墨西哥是否有能力將成本轉嫁給消費者?我這邊就介紹到這裡。謝謝。

  • Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Eilif Serck-Hanssen - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Eduardo. So the softer economic conditions in Mexico is really a continuation of what we have seen since the second half of 2024. And it was driven by some uncertainties following the election, the uncertainty around tariffs and the trade situation between Mexico and the United States.

    謝謝你,愛德華多。因此,墨西哥疲軟的經濟狀況實際上是自 2024 年下半年以來我們所看到的狀況的延續。而這主要是由於選舉後的一些不確定因素,例如關稅的不確定性以及墨西哥和美國之間的貿易狀況。

  • And so that softer GDP production in 2025, it was below 1%. In 2026, it's expected to be somewhere between 1.4%, 1.5% GDP.

    因此,2025 年的 GDP 產量將低於 1%。預計到 2026 年,這一比例將在 GDP 的 1.4% 到 1.5% 之間。

  • And then the expectation is that post USMCA, there will be an uptick in direct foreign investment again into Mexico as we saw in 2023, that is going to then drive GDP growth up into the 2 percentage to 3 percentage point range.

    然後,人們預期在美墨加協定生效後,墨西哥的外國直接投資將再次像2023年那樣增加,這將推動GDP成長至2%至3個百分點的範圍內。

  • So how I would describe 2026 is a continuation of 2025 was slightly lower. And during 2025, we saw volume production of 3% to 4% growth, and we saw pricing consistent with inflation.

    所以,我對 2026 年的描述是:它是 2025 年的延續,但略低。2025 年,我們預計產量將成長 3% 至 4%,價格將與通貨膨脹保持一致。

  • And it is that kind of momentum that I expect continuing into 2026 with potentially some upside in the second half of 2026 when there's clarity on USMCA and hence, the level of private investment in the country.

    我預計這種勢頭將持續到 2026 年,在 2026 年下半年可能會有一些上漲空間,屆時美墨加協定 (USMCA) 的前景將更加明朗,從而也能夠反映出該國的私人投資水平。

  • Eduardo Resende - Analyst

    Eduardo Resende - Analyst

  • Super clear, thank you.

    非常清楚,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And I am showing no further questions. I thank you for all participating on today's conference call. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

    我不會再提其他問題了。感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。