Laureate Education Inc (LAUR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Laureate Education first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Adam Morse, Senior Vice President of Finance. Please go ahead.

大家好，感謝大家的支持。歡迎參加勞瑞德教育 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人，財務高級副總裁亞當莫爾斯 (Adam Morse)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us on today's call to discuss Laureate Education's first-quarter 2025 results. Joining me on the call today are Eilif Serck-Hanssen, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rick Buskirk, Chief Financial Officer.

早安，感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論勞瑞德教育 2025 年第一季的表現。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Eilif Serck-Hanssen；以及財務長 Rick Buskirk。

Our earnings press release is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at laureate.net. We've also posted a supplementary presentation to the website, which we will be referring to during today's call. The call is being webcast, and a complete recording will be available after the call.

我們的收益新聞稿可在我們網站 laureate.net 的投資者關係部分查閱。我們還在網站上發布了補充演示文稿，我們將在今天的電話會議中參考它。這次電話會議正在進行網路直播，會議結束後將提供完整的錄音。

I'd like to remind you that some of the information we are providing today, including but not limited to our financial and operational guidance, constitutes forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable U.S. securities laws. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may change at any time, and therefore, our actual results may differ materially from those we expected.

我想提醒您，我們今天提供的一些信息，包括但不限於我們的財務和營運指南，構成適用美國證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述受隨時可能變化的風險和不確定性的影響，因此我們的實際結果可能與預期的結果有重大差異。

Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations are disclosed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, our 10-Q filed earlier this morning as well as other filings made with the SEC. In addition, all forward-looking statements are based on current expectations as of the date of this conference call and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表年度報告、今天早上提交的 10-Q 表以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中披露了可能導致實際結果與我們的預期存在重大差異的重要因素。此外，所有前瞻性陳述均基於本次電話會議之日的當前預期，我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Additionally, non-GAAP measures that we discuss, including and among others, Adjusted EBITDA and its related margin, Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Earnings per Share, total debt, net of cash, and Free Cash Flow are also detailed and reconciled to their GAAP counterparts in our press release or supplementary presentation.

此外，我們討論的非 GAAP 指標（包括調整後 EBITDA 及其相關利潤率、調整後淨收入和調整後每股收益、總債務、現金淨額和自由現金流等）也在我們的新聞稿或補充報告中進行了詳細說明，並與 GAAP 指標進行了協調。

Let me now turn the call over to Eilif.

現在讓我把電話轉給艾利夫。

Thank you, Adam, and good morning, everyone. 2025 is off to a good start, and we are encouraged by the solid results from our recently completed intake cycles, which included Peru's primary intake, and a smaller secondary intake for Mexico. Enrollment results came in line with our expectations for both markets, with year-over-year new enrollment growth of 8% for Mexico and 6% in Peru through the completion of the intake cycles by middle of April.

謝謝你，亞當，大家早安。 2025 年開局良好，我們最近完成的招生週期取得了堅實的成果，這令我們感到鼓舞，其中包括秘魯的初次招生和墨西哥較小規模的二次招生。入學結果符合我們對這兩個市場的預期，截至 4 月中旬招生週期結束，墨西哥的新生入學人數較去年同期成長 8%，秘魯的新生入學人數較去年同期成長 6%。

With the intake now finalized, we have good visibility into the remainder of the year, and we are tightening the range of our full-year guidance, effectively raising the midpoint for Total Enrollments, Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. The result from this intake cycle further validates the resiliency of our business model.

隨著招生工作的最終完成，我們對今年剩餘時間的前景有了很好的了解，我們正在收緊全年指導範圍，有效提高總入學人數、收入和調整後 EBITDA 的中點。這次招生週期的結果進一步驗證了我們商業模式的彈性。

Our historical performance demonstrates that our business model is loosely correlated with economic cycles. During more robust economic times and periods of GDP growth, we benefit from both strong volume growth and pricing power.

我們的歷史表現表明，我們的商業模式與經濟週期的相關性較低。在經濟更加強勁和 GDP 成長的時期，我們受益於強勁的銷售成長和定價能力。

In slower and more uncertain economic times, as we are currently experiencing, our business model has consistently proven to be resilient as families tend to prioritize education over other forms of discretionary spending. This is due to the strong wage premium from having a higher education degree, the affordability of our programs, and the strong return on the educational investment we deliver to our students. This resiliency was also demonstrated during the global financial crisis in 2008 to 2010, the COVID-19 pandemic and even more recently during the 2023 recession in Peru.

在當前經濟放緩和不確定性加劇的時期，正如我們目前所經歷的，我們的商業模式始終被證明具有韌性，因為家庭往往優先考慮教育，而不是其他形式的可自由支配的開支。這是因為擁有高等教育學位可以帶來豐厚的薪資溢價、我們的課程價格實惠，以及我們為學生提供的教育投資帶來豐厚的回報。這種韌性在 2008 年至 2010 年全球金融危機、新冠疫情以及最近的 2023 年秘魯經濟衰退期間也得到了體現。

For that reason, we remain confident in the growing demand for quality higher education in both Mexico and Peru. With our leading brands and strong digital capabilities, we feel very well positioned to capitalize on these secular growth trends in our markets.

因此，我們對墨西哥和秘魯對優質高等教育的需求不斷增長充滿信心。憑藉我們領先的品牌和強大的數位能力，我們感到自己完全有能力利用市場中的這些長期成長趨勢。

In the near term, from a macro perspective, we continue to closely monitor political and external developments in both markets, particularly as U.S.-Mexico trade discussions evolve. Although GDP growth and foreign direct investment have recently slowed, we remain cautiously optimistic given Mexico's strategic position as the U.S. seeks to reduce its reliance on China.

短期內，從宏觀角度來看，我們將繼續密切關注兩個市場的政治和外部發展，特別是美墨貿易談判的進展。儘管國內生產毛額成長和外國直接投資最近有所放緩，但考慮到墨西哥在美國尋求減少對中國的依賴之際的戰略地位，我們仍然保持謹慎樂觀的態度。

While recent trade tensions have introduced some uncertainty, Mexico's strong economic ties to the U.S., its sound fiscal discipline and more dovish monetary policy set the stage for solid foundation for growth in the coming years. In Peru, the recovery from the mid-2023 recession continues to gain traction with GDP growth projected at approximately 3% for 2025.

儘管最近的貿易緊張局勢帶來了一些不確定性，但墨西哥與美國的緊密經濟聯繫、健​​全的財政紀律和更為溫和的貨幣政策為未來幾年的成長奠定了堅實的基礎。秘魯從 2023 年中期經濟衰退中復甦的勢頭持續增強，預計 2025 年 GDP 成長率約為 3%。

Peru is less affected by U.S. tariff policies, and it has a favorable macro backdrop due to low interest rates, stable inflation, and a currency that is correlated with U.S. dollar-denominated commodity prices, such as copper, gold and agricultural products. While the current macroeconomic backdrop in both Mexico and Peru remains largely stable, we do anticipate continued volatility in the coming months and recognize that evolving global trade dynamics may introduce near-term pressures on GDP growth and foreign exchange rates across both markets.

秘魯受美國關稅政策的影響較小，且由於利率低、通膨穩定，且貨幣與美元計價的銅、黃金和農產品等大宗商品價格掛鉤，宏觀經濟背景有利。儘管墨西哥和秘魯目前的宏觀經濟背景基本上保持穩定，但我們預計未來幾個月仍將持續波動，並認識到不斷變化的全球貿易動態可能會對兩個市場的 GDP 成長和外匯匯率帶來短期壓力。

As a reminder, our businesses are local businesses with revenues and expenses naturally matched within each market. While this insulates us from any material foreign currency transaction risk, we do face translation impacts as a U.S. dollar reporting company.

提醒一下，我們的業務是本地業務，每個市場的收入和支出自然匹配。雖然這使我們免受任何重大外匯交易風險，但作為一家以美元報告的公司，我們確實面臨翻譯的影響。

At Laureate, our mission is to deliver affordable, high-quality education to prepare students for successful careers and lifelong achievements while building pride, trust, and respect in our communities. For more than 25 years, we have honored that mission and positively influenced millions of lives by broadened access to quality higher education.

在 Laureate，我們的使命是提供價格合理、高品質的教育，為學生的成功職業和終身成就做好準備，同時在我們的社區中建立自豪感、信任和尊重。25 年來，我們始終履行這項使命，透過擴大優質高等教育的覆蓋面，對數百萬人的生活產生了積極影響。

My sincere gratitude goes out to all faculty and staff who have played a significant role in our success. The impact we have had on society is profound, and we measure that in many ways, including access to education, student outcomes and affordability and quality of our offerings. We also take tremendous pride in tracking the magnitude of our institutions' support to our local communities through free or low-cost health services and volunteering hours. In early April, we published our 2024 Impact Report, and I encourage you to visit our website and download a copy to learn more about the impact and the outstanding work of our students, faculty, and institutions throughout the communities in Mexico and Peru.

我向所有為我們的成功做出重要貢獻的教職員工表示誠摯的謝意。我們對社會的影響是深遠的，我們透過多種方式來衡量，包括教育機會、學生成果以及教育的可負擔性和品質。我們也非常自豪地追蹤我們的機構透過免費或低成本的醫療服務和志願服務對當地社區的支持。4 月初，我們發布了 2024 年影響力報告，我鼓勵您訪問我們的網站並下載一份副本，以進一步了解我們在墨西哥和秘魯社區的學生、教師和機構的影響和傑出工作。

Just to touch on a few highlights: Our four institutions are all five-star rated by QS Stars, the highest rating attainable in the categories of employability, inclusiveness, online learning and social impact. 47% of our students are first-generation university goers. By expanding access to higher education, we turn ambition into opportunity, enabling these students to surpass their parents' economic status and create lasting change for their families and communities.

僅舉幾個亮點：我們的四所院校均獲得了 QS 星級評定的五星級，這是就業能力、包容性、在線學習和社會影響力類別中可獲得的最高評級。我們 47% 的學生是第一代大學生。透過擴大接受高等教育的機會，我們將抱負轉化為機遇，使這些學生能夠超越其父母的經濟地位，為他們的家庭和社區帶來持久的變化。

And 9 out of 10 of our job-seeking graduates are employed within 12 months of graduation. Our academic programs emphasize health sciences, STEM and business disciplines, careers where there are large and growing demand by employers. I'm very honored to be part of an organization which cares so deeply about expanding the middle classes in Mexico and Peru by providing quality higher education at affordable prices.

我們每 10 名求職畢業生中就有 9 名在畢業後 12 個月內找到工作。我們的學術課程強調健康科學、STEM 和商業學科，這些職業受到雇主的大量且不斷增長的需求。我很榮幸能成為一個組織的一員，該組織非常關心透過以可負擔的價格提供優質的高等教育來擴大墨西哥和秘魯的中產階級。

This concludes my prepared remarks, and I will now turn the call over to Rick Buskirk for a more detailed financial overview of our first quarter performance as well as further details on our 2025 full-year outlook. Rick.

我的準備好的演講到此結束，現在我將把電話交給 Rick Buskirk，讓他提供有關我們第一季度業績的更詳細的財務概述以及有關我們 2025 年全年展望的更多詳細信息。瑞克。

Thank you, Eilif. Before I discuss our financial performance for the quarter, let me provide a few important reminders on seasonality. First, campus-based higher education is a seasonal business. The first and third quarters represent our two largest intake periods. The two intake periods account for approximately 80% of our total new enrollment activity for the year.

謝謝你，艾利夫。在討論本季的財務表現之前，請容許我先就季節性提供一些重要的提醒。首先，校園高等教育是一個季節性的業務。第一季和第三季是我們最大的兩個吸收期。這兩個招生期約占我們全年新生招生總數的 80%。

From a P&L perspective, both are seasonally low periods as classes are out of session for most of those months. In contrast, the second and fourth quarters are not large enrollment intake periods, but generate higher Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA for the year.

從損益角度來看，這兩個月都是季節性低迷期，因為大部分月份都沒有開課。相較之下，第二季和第四季並不是招生量較大的時期，但卻為全年帶來了更高的收入和調整後 EBITDA。

In addition, the timing of the start of our classes can shift year-over-year depending on various factors such as when public universities begin classes or when holidays occur. This, in turn, affects the timing of enrollments and Revenue recognition and quarter-over-quarter comparability.

此外，我們的開課時間可能會逐年變化，這取決於各種因素，例如公立大學的課程時間或假期時間。這反過來又影響了入學時間和收入確認以及季度間的可比性。

In 2025, the beginning of classes, particularly in Peru, started later versus 2024, extending the enrollment cycle into mid-April and beyond the first quarter cutoff. As a result, approximately $26 million of Revenue and $23 million in Adjusted EBITDA will shift from the first quarter to the second half of the year. As I review our operating results for the first quarter, I will provide additional color on these timing-related impacts and discuss enrollments in context of the cycle's completion through mid-April.

2025 年，尤其是在秘魯，開學時間比 2024 年晚，招生週期延長至 4 月中旬，甚至超過第一季的截止日期。因此，約 2,600 萬美元的收入和 2,300 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 將從第一季轉移到下半年。當我回顧第一季的經營業績時，我將對這些與時間相關的影響提供更多說明，並在 4 月中旬週期完成的背景下討論入學情況。

Let me now move to the operating and financial performance for the first quarter, starting on page 11. Enrollment results and associated pricing for the cycle were in line with our expectations in both markets. Adjusted for timing of semester starts, new and total enrollment volumes increased 7% and 6%, respectively.

現在讓我從第 11 頁開始介紹第一季的營運和財務表現。此週期的招生結果和相關定價符合我們對這兩個市場的預期。根據學期開始時間進行調整後，新生入學人數和總入學人數分別增加了 7％ 和 6％。

These growth rates represent completion of the intake cycles as compared to the corresponding intake period in the prior year. Revenue in the seasonally low first quarter was $236 million and adjusted EBITDA was $5 million. Both metrics were ahead of the guidance provided three months ago.

這些成長率代表與前一年相應入學期相比入學週期的完成。第一季營收為 2.36 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 500 萬美元，屬於季節性低潮。這兩項指標均高於三個月前提供的指引。

On an organic constant currency basis and adjusted for the academic calendar shift discussed earlier, Revenue for the first quarter was up 10% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 132%, albeit from a small base. First quarter Net Loss was $20 million, resulting in a Loss Per Share of $0.13.

以有機固定匯率計算並根據前面討論過的學術日曆變化進行調整，第一季的收入同比增長 10%，調整後的 EBITDA 增長 132%，儘管基數較小。第一季淨虧損為 2,000 萬美元，每股虧損 0.13 美元。

First quarter Adjusted Net Loss was $17 million and Adjusted Loss Per Share was $0.11. Let me now provide some additional color on the performance of Mexico and Peru, starting with page 13. Please note that all comparisons versus the prior year quarter are on an organic and constant currency basis. Let's start with Mexico.

第一季調整後淨虧損為 1,700 萬美元，調整後每股虧損為 0.11 美元。現在讓我從第 13 頁開始，對墨西哥和秘魯的表現提供一些額外的資訊。請注意，與去年同期相比的所有比較均基於有機和恆定貨幣。讓我們從墨西哥開始。

The first quarter represents a smaller secondary intake, their large intake occurs each September and follows the Northern Hemisphere calendar. Mexico's new enrollments increased 8% versus the comparable intake cycle period in prior year, led by strong growth in working adult-focused fully online programs. Total enrollments were up 7% for the cycle. Pricing for the intake was in line with our cost of inflation for traditional face-to-face offerings. In our fully online product, we prioritized higher volume growth and kept pricing relatively flat. Adjusted for timing of the academic calendar, Mexico's Revenue for the first quarter increased by 11% compared to the prior year period due to volume growth and Adjusted EBITDA was up 22%, led by productivity gains and Revenue flow-through.

第一季的中學招生數量較少，而大規模招生則在每年九月進行，遵循北半球日曆。與去年同期相比，墨西哥的新生入學人數增加了 8%，這主要得益於以成人為中心的全線上課程的強勁增長。本週期總入學人數增加了 7%。攝取量定價與我們傳統面對面服務的通貨膨脹成本一致。在我們的全線上產品中，我們優先考慮更高的銷售成長並保持相對穩定的價格。在根據學術日曆的時間調整後，由於銷售增長，墨西哥第一季的收入與去年同期相比增長了 11%，而調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 22%，這主要得益於生產力的提高和收入的流轉。

Let's now transition to Peru on slide 14. The first quarter represents the primary intake for Peru as they are a Southern Hemisphere institution. For the first quarter, new and total enrollments came in line with our expectations, underscoring a more favorable operating environment as Peru moves beyond last year's recession. Peru's new enrollments increased 6% versus last year's comparable intake, led by strong growth in young students in our premium brand and working adult-focused fully online programs. Total enrollments were up 5% for the cycle.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 14 上的秘魯。第一季代表秘魯的主要招生數量，因為秘魯是南半球的機構。第一季度，新入學人數和總入學人數符合我們的預期，顯示秘魯已擺脫去年的經濟衰退，經營環境更有利。與去年同期相比，秘魯的新生入學人數增加了 6%，這主要得益於我們高端品牌和以成人為中心的全線上課程的年輕學生人數的強勁增長。本週期的總入學人數增加了 5%。

Pricing for our traditional face-to-face product during the intake was in line with inflation. We do expect a mix effect as we grew fully online programs faster than our face-to-face offerings. Adjusted for timing of the academic calendar, Peru's Revenue for the seasonally low first quarter increased by 5% versus the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, adjusted for timing of the academic calendar was down $2 million compared to the prior year period due to seasonality. The first quarter in Peru is a largely out-of-session summer period with limited revenue recognition while we still incur fixed expenses as well as investments for growth.

我們傳統面對面產品的定價在接收期間與通貨膨脹保持一致。我們確實預計會出現混合效應，因為我們的完全線上課程的成長速度比面對面課程的成長速度要快。根據學術日曆的時間進行調整，秘魯季節性低迷的第一季的收入比去年同期增長了 5%。由於季節性因素，本季調整後的 EBITDA（根據學術日曆時間進行調整）與去年同期相比下降了 200 萬美元。秘魯第一季基本上處於夏季休會期，收入確認有限，但我們仍有固定支出以及成長投資。

Let me now briefly discuss our balance sheet position. Laureate ended March with $110 million in cash and $115 million in gross debt for a net debt position of $5 million. Our balance sheet remains strong. During the quarter, we repurchased $42 million of stock and at quarter end, had $56 million remaining under our stock repurchase authorization. Supported by a strong balance sheet and our cash accretive business model, we remain committed to continuing to return excess capital to shareholders.

現在讓我簡單討論一下我們的資產負債表狀況。截至 3 月底，Laureate 的現金餘額為 1.1 億美元，總債務為 1.15 億美元，淨債務為 500 萬美元。我們的資產負債表依然強勁。在本季度，我們回購了價值 4,200 萬美元的股票，截至季度末，我們的股票回購授權餘額為 5,600 萬美元。在強勁的資產負債表和現金增值業務模式的支持下，我們仍致力於繼續向股東返還多餘的資本。

Moving on to our outlook for 2025, starting on page 18. As referenced earlier by Eilif, with the first intake now finalized and increased visibility into the year, we are tightening our full year 2025 guidance range by increasing the low end of the operational range and flowing through the FX benefit realized in the first quarter. The resulting impact to our 2025 guidance midpoint expectations are a 1,000 student increase in total enrollments, $10 million increase in Revenues and approximately $5 million increase in adjusted EBITDA.

從第 18 頁開始，我們繼續討論 2025 年的展望。正如 Eilif 之前提到的，隨著第一批學員的最終確定和今年的可見性提高，我們正在透過提高營運範圍的低端和利用第一季度實現的外匯收益來收緊 2025 年全年指導範圍。這對我們的 2025 年指導中期預期產生的影響是，總入學人數增加 1,000 名學生，收入增加 1,000 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 增加約 500 萬美元。

I also want to remind you that in addition to the approximately $26 million shift in Revenue and related profitability from Q1 to the second half of the year due to academic calendar timing, there are two additional factors to be aware of in our 2025 outlook. First, our campus consolidations in Mexico are progressing well.

我還想提醒您，除了由於學術日曆時間表導致第一季到下半年收入和相關盈利能力發生約 2600 萬美元的變化外，我們在 2025 年展望中還有兩個需要注意的因素。首先，我們在墨西哥的校園合併工作進展順利。

As a result of those activities, we do expect a one-time Revenue loss in 2025 of approximately $8 million. However, our more streamlined campus footprint will continue to allow us to be more efficient. We have continued to raise margins in Mexico, and you will see that reflected in our strong consolidated margin growth expectations for 2025.

由於這些活動，我們預計 2025 年一次性收入損失約為 800 萬美元。然而，我們更精簡的校園佈局將繼續使我們更有效率。我們持續提高墨西哥的利潤率，您將看到這反映在我們對 2025 年強勁的綜合利潤率成長預期中。

Second, with the significance of the movement in the Mexican peso, we do expect our reported Revenues in 2025 to be flat to slightly up versus 2024.However, given local currency revenue growth, margin momentum in the business and a stable Peruvian sol, we still expect to deliver growth in both U.S. dollar reported Adjusted EBITDA and cash flow based on guided exchange rates.

其次，考慮到墨西哥比索走勢的重要性，我們確實預期 2025 年的報告收入將與 2024 年持平或略有上升。然而，考慮到當地貨幣收入的成長、業務利潤率的勢頭以及穩定的秘魯索爾，我們仍然預計，基於指導匯率，美元報告的調整後 EBITDA 和現金流都將實現成長。

While we do note that we have seen a very recent improvement in the strength of the Mexican peso, we are maintaining a 20.50 peso to dollar rate in our guidance as was used in our February guidance for the remainder of the year given overall volatility. As a reminder, as a local business, our revenues and expenses are naturally hedged within each market. While we anticipate continued FX volatility, the main impact to our business will be limited to U.S. dollar translation.

雖然我們確實注意到墨西哥比索的強勢最近有所改善，但考慮到整體波動性，我們仍將比索兌美元的匯率維持在 20.50 的指導水平，這與我們在 2 月份的指導水平相同，並將在今年剩餘時間內保持這一水平。提醒一下，作為本地企業，我們的收入和支出在每個市場內都是自然對沖的。雖然我們預計外匯波動將持續，但對我們業務的主要影響將僅限於美元匯率。

We now expect our full-year 2025 results to be as follows: Total enrollments to be in the range of 491,000 to 495,000 students, reflecting growth of 4% to 5% versus 2024. Revenue to be in the range of $1.560 billion to $1.575 billion, reflecting flat performance to growth of 1% on an as-reported basis and growth of 6% to 7% on an organic constant currency basis versus 2024 or 7% to 8%, excluding the impact from campus consolidations in Mexico.

我們現在預計 2025 年全年業績如下：總入學人數將在 491,000 至 495,000 名學生之間，與 2024 年相比增長 4% 至 5%。營收將在 15.60 億美元至 15.75 億美元之間，反映業績持平至按報告基礎增長 1%，以有機固定匯率計算較 2024 年增長 6% 至 7%，或 7% 至 8%，不包括墨西哥校園合併的影響。

Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $473 million to $480 million, reflecting growth of 5% to 7% on an as-reported basis and 11% to 13% on an organic constant currency basis versus 2024. This would result in an increase in Adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 150 basis points at the midpoint of our guidance. We anticipate further margin expansion to be driven by operating leverage from revenue growth, our campus consolidations in Mexico and lower corporate expenses.

調整後的 EBITDA 將在 4.73 億美元至 4.8 億美元之間，與 2024 年相比，按報告基礎計算增長 5% 至 7%，以有機固定匯率計算增長 11% 至 13%。這將導致調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在我們指導的中點增加約 150 個基點。我們預計，利潤率的進一步擴大將受到收入成長、墨西哥園區合併以及企業費用降低帶來的經營槓桿的推動。

Lastly, for 2025, we expect Adjusted EBITDA to Unlevered Free Cash Flow Conversion of approximately 50% on a reported basis. This implies strong double-digit year-over-year growth in U.S. dollar reported cash flows. Now turning to our second quarter guidance. For the second quarter of 2025, we expect Revenue between $499 million and $504 million, Adjusted EBITDA between $191 million to $194 million.

最後，對於 2025 年，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 與無槓桿自由現金流轉換率將在報告基礎上約為 50%。這意味著美元報告的現金流將實現強勁的兩位數年增長。現在談談我們的第二季指引。對於 2025 年第二季度，我們預計營收在 4.99 億美元至 5.04 億美元之間，調整後 EBITDA 在 1.91 億美元至 1.94 億美元之間。

That concludes my prepared remarks. Eilif, I'm handing it back to you for closing comments.

我的準備好的發言到此結束。Eilif，我將其交還給您，請您發表最後評論。

Thank you, Rick. Let me close by saying that market dynamics remain favorable in Mexico and Peru, even with a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty. Both markets are attractive with significant growth opportunities. Participation rates in higher education are growing and still well below developed markets, and the private sector plays a critical role by providing over half of the total seat capacity in both markets on a combined basis.

謝謝你，里克。最後，我想說，儘管宏觀經濟存在不確定性，但墨西哥和秘魯的市場動態仍然良好。這兩個市場都極具吸引力，擁有巨大的成長機會。高等教育的參與率正在成長，但仍遠低於已開發市場，私營部門發揮關鍵作用，提供了兩個市場合計超過一半的總座位容量。

With our strong balance sheet, best-in-class universities and resilient business model, we are confident in our continued ability to grow faster than the overall market and deliver great value to our shareholders. Operator, that concludes our prepared remarks, and we're now happy to take any questions from the participants.

憑藉我們強大的資產負債表、一流的大學和有韌性的商業模式，我們有信心繼續以高於整體市場的速度成長，並為股東創造巨大價值。接線員，我們的準備好的演講到此結束，現在我們很高興回答與會者的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）Jeff Silber，BMO 資本市場。

Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. Eilif, in your prepared remarks, you talked about the uncertain environment and the backdrop of the fact that your business tends to be resilient. But I'm just curious, are you seeing any hesitancy from potential students given what's going on? And I'm specifically interested in Mexico in terms of the upcoming fall intake period.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。艾利夫，在您準備好的發言中，您談到了不確定的環境以及您的業務趨於彈性的背景。但我只是好奇，考慮到目前的情況，你是否看到潛在學生有任何猶豫？我對即將到來的秋季入學期的墨西哥特別感興趣。

Thanks, Jeff. We've just completed our secondary intake, which is largely a working adult student profile. And that student, by definition, is less dependent on household income because it is funded by being a working professional. So, we saw very robust demand during this intake. We do expect the primary intake in the third quarter to mirror more the intake of last year in the same time, which was 4% to 5%.

謝謝，傑夫。我們剛完成了中學招生，主要招生對像是成年在職學生。從定義上來說，學生對家庭收入的依賴程度較低，因為其收入來自職業工作者。因此，我們看到了這次招生期間非常強勁的需求。我們確實預計第三季的初等招生人數將與去年同期的招生人數持平，即 4% 至 5%。

So we will see how it goes. It's way too early to give any specific guidance, but we are assuming this similar economic environment for this intake as we saw at the end of last year when the slowdown in the economy had already started in Mexico.

我們將拭目以待。現在給予任何具體指引還為時過早，但我們假設這次移民的經濟環境與去年年底墨西哥經濟開始放緩時的情況類似。

Mauricio Cepeda, Morgan Stanley.

莫里西奧·塞佩達，摩根士丹利。

I have two questions. The first one about the intake, again, sorry for insisting on that. So, I understand there was kind of a time shift between '24 and '25 in terms of which was the intake cycle. But judging from the numbers in the release, it seems that there was a lot of intake that happened in April for that growth to happen. So, is this the right interpretation?

我有兩個問題。第一個問題是關於攝取量，再次抱歉我堅持這一點。因此，我理解在攝取週期方面，24 年和 25 年之間存在某種時間轉變。但從發布的數字來看，4月的入境人數眾多，導致了這種成長。那麼，這是正確的解釋嗎？

Or is any other kind of normalization you made with the numbers to try to compare apple-to-apples in respect to the intake cycle? And the second question is a little bit about FX. So I understand that you were using the FX from Q1 in this guidance, let's say, republishing, but it would give naturally a room in terms of FX because the FX is more favorable to you now. Why the decision to use the past FX rather than the guidance publication date FX?

或者您是否對這些數字進行了其他類型的標準化，以嘗試在攝取週期內進行同類比較？第二個問題與 FX 有關。因此，我理解您在本指南中使用了第一季的外匯，例如重新發布，但它自然會在外匯方面留下空間，因為現在的外匯對您更有利。為什麼決定使用過去的 FX 而不是指導發布日期的 FX？

Mauricio, I'm happy to take the first on that -- both those questions. Let's start first with the enrollment intake. So, normalized for the academic calendar change, we are up 7% new enrollments, 8% in Mexico and 6% in Peru. We -- that 8% in -- if we deconstruct that by market, we actually closed our intake cycle in Mexico in Q1. So, you will see not only on a reported basis, but also on a normalized basis is the same of 8% intake for the quarter.

毛里西奧，我很高興首先回答這兩個問題。我們先從招生情況開始吧。因此，根據學術日曆變化進行標準化，我們的新生入學人數增加了 7%，其中墨西哥增加了 8%，秘魯增加了 6%。如果我們按市場來分析的話，我們實際上在第一季就結束了在墨西哥的攝取週期。因此，您不僅會看到報告的基礎上，而且看到標準化的基礎上本季的攝取量也是 8%。

The shift happened in Peru, where the academic calendar started two weeks later, and that's where the normalization occurs. And it's simply that, just the delay of two weeks of our academic calendar enrollment start in Peru, which takes Peru from a reported basis that you will see in the guided presentation of negative 9% to an adjustment for those two weeks of 6%. There's no other normalizations other than the two weeks of deferral on the enrollment intake for the quarter. I'll pause there and see if that answers your question.

這一轉變發生在秘魯，那裡的學年開始時間晚了兩週，這也是正常化發生的地方。簡單來說，秘魯的學術日曆入學時間僅推遲了兩週，這使得秘魯的學費從指導介紹中報告的負 9% 調整為這兩週的 6%。除了本季的入學人數推遲兩週外，沒有其他正常化措施。我會暫停一下，看看是否回答了你的問題。

Yes, yes. So if I understood, the point is that the beginning of the cycle was later, right? It's not that you are adding up the April intake to compose the begin to end intake for each year, right? You're judging --

是的，是的。所以如果我理解正確的話，重點是週期的開始時間較晚，對嗎？並不是說您要把每年四月份的招生人數加起來，來計算出從年初到年末的招生人數，對嗎？你在評判--

Think about it this way, instead of having the main -- the first semester start in late March, it now started in the second week of April. And that more aligns to market needs or market norms in the market.

這樣想想，第一學期的主要課程不是在三月下旬開始，而是在四月的第二週開始。這更符合市場需求或市場規範。

And your second question on FX, to your point, we guided at a 20.50 rate of the peso to the dollar in February. We do acknowledge that the peso has been volatile and has come down in the most recent 10 days trading days to as low as around 19.50, 19.60.

關於外匯的第二個問題，正如您所說，2 月我們預計比索兌美元匯率為 20.50。我們確實承認比索一直在波動，在最近 10 個交易日內跌至 19.50、19.60 左右。

But given the fact that there's a tremendous amount of volatility in FX in that market, we saw it prudent to maintain that 20.50 as again, as recent as about 10 trading days ago, it was at 20.50. So that was our approach, which is not what we typically do, to your point, we usually guide as spot at the moment, but we are not in typical environment in terms of FX volatility.

但考慮到該市場外匯波動性巨大，我們認為維持 20.50 是明智之舉，因為就在大約 10 個交易日前，該匯率仍處於 20.50 水準。這就是我們的方法，這不是我們通常的做法，正如你所說，我們目前通常以現貨為指導，但就外匯波動而言，我們並不處於典型的環境中。

(Operator Instructions) Yan Cesquim, BTG Pactual.

（操作員指示） Yan Cesquim，BTG Pactual。

Good morning, Eilif, Rick. Good morning, everyone. I have two quick questions here. The first one is regarding the advance of fully digital courses. Could you please give us more color on the breakdown and development of fully digital courses in this first intake cycle? That's the first one.

早安，艾利夫、瑞克。大家早安。我這裡有兩個簡單的問題。第一個是關於全數位化課程的推進。您能否向我們詳細介紹第一輪招生中全數位化課程的細分和發展？這是第一個。

And the second is regarding capital allocation that you repurchased, $42 million in this first quarter, still holding some room until the end of the existing buyback program. So, should we expect similar capital allocation in the following quarters? Is that space for even bolder annualized payout going forward this year? That's the two questions here.

第二是關於您回購的資本配置，第一季回購了 4,200 萬美元，在現有回購計畫結束前仍有一定的空間。那麼，我們是否應該預期接下來的幾季會出現類似的資本配置？今年是否有更大空間實現年度派息？這就是這裡的兩個問題。

Great. Well, the digital or fully online courses are growing at a very robust rate, double digit in both markets. It's growing faster than our on-campus face-to-face hybrid delivery. And for us, digital education or fully online education is really the way that we are penetrating the working adult market. So, we're the absolute leader in both Mexico and Peru when it comes to quality digital education, and we are market leaders when it comes to innovating and launching new programs.

偉大的。嗯，數位或完全線上課程正在以非常強勁的速度成長，兩個市場都達到了兩位數的成長。它的成長速度比我們校園內的面對面混合授課更快。對我們來說，數位化教育或完全線上教育是我們真正滲透成人勞動市場的方式。因此，在優質數位教育方面，我們在墨西哥和秘魯都處於絕對領先地位，在創新和推出新項目方面，我們也是市場領導者。

So we are growing very robustly. We have about 100,000 students, or about 20% of our student population enrolled in fully online digital learning. And I said we're growing at a much faster clip than face to face, about three to four times the momentum.

因此，我們的成長非常強勁。我們有大約 10 萬名學生，約佔學生總數的 20%，參加完全線上數位化學習。我說我們的成長速度比面對面交流快得多，大約是面對面交流的三到四倍。

The other thing I can share with you on digital learning is that we are further along in Mexico than we are in Peru, but we are very encouraged with the momentum in both markets. I'll pause there before going to capital allocation. Did that address your question, Yan?

關於數位化學習，我可以與大家分享的另一件事是，我們在墨西哥的進展比在秘魯的進展更進一步，但我們對這兩個市場的發展勢頭感到非常鼓舞。在討論資本配置之前，我會在這裡暫停一下。這回答了你的問題嗎，Yan？

Yes, that's the question.

是的，這就是問題所在。

Perfect. And vis-a-vis capital allocation, we are committed to return all excess cash to our shareholders after what we have allocated and guided vis-a-vis CapEx to support growth in the business. And that means that 50% of our EBITDA would convert into free cash flow, and that is the amount that we are planning to return to shareholders, and we have a $100 million program that we are -- at the end of the first quarter, we were essentially halfway through. And so we will continue that program and discuss with our Board appropriate actions when that program has been exhausted.

完美的。就資本配置而言，我們承諾在分配和指導資本支出以支持業務成長後，將所有多餘的現金回饋給股東。這意味著我們的 50% EBITDA 將轉化為自由現金流，這也是我們計劃返還給股東的金額，我們有一個 1 億美元的計劃——在第一季末，我們基本上已經完成了一半。因此，我們將繼續該計劃，並在該計劃用盡後與董事會討論適當的行動。

Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session and today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝。問答環節和今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。

Thank you all.

謝謝大家。