Kaspi.kz AO (KSPI) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

First quarter 2025 financial results. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand you over to David Ferguson, Head of Investor Relations at Kaspi.kz to begin. David, please go ahead.

2025 年第一季財務業績。（操作員指示）現在我將把您交給 Kaspi.kz 投資者關係主管 David Ferguson 來開始。大衛，請繼續。

Great. Thank you, Maxine. Good afternoon, good morning to everyone. Thanks a lot for joining us for our first quarter 2025 financial results. I'm David Ferguson. I'm joined, as usual, by Mikheil Lomtadze, our CEO and Co-Founder; Yuri Didenko and Tengiz Mosidze, our deputy CFOs -- deputy CEOs, sorry.

偉大的。謝謝你，馬克辛。大家下午好，早安。非常感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第一季財務表現發表會。我是大衛·弗格森。像往常一樣，我們的首席執行官兼聯合創始人 Mikheil Lomtadze 也與我一起出席；尤里·迪登科 (Yuri Didenko) 和滕吉茲·莫西澤 (Tengiz Mosidze)，我們的副首席財務官——副首席執行官，抱歉。

So Mikheil will take you through the strategic update. I'll run you through the operational performance in the first quarter. I'll do that quickly and then spend a bit more time on the guidance for the remainder of the year. There's a couple of moving parts to discuss, and then we'll open up the call for Q&A. So on that note, I'll hand it over to Mikheil.

因此，米哈伊爾將帶您了解策略更新。我將向大家介紹第一季的營運表現。我很快就會完成這項工作，然後再花一點時間來指導今年剩餘的時間。有幾個活動部分需要討論，然後我們將開始問答環節。因此，我將把發言權交給米哈伊爾。

Mikheil, over to you. Thank you.

米哈伊爾，交給你了。謝謝。

Hello, everyone. So let's just go through our first Q performance. In general, we had a good first Q. The company itself is performing at the levels which we expected broadly within our expectations. The payments -- the continued the strong growth revenues plus 16%, net income, 21%.

大家好。那麼讓我們先來回顧一下我們的第一次 Q 表演。總體而言，我們的第一個季度表現良好。公司本身的表現達到了我們預期的水平，基本上在我們的預期之內。付款－持續保持強勁成長，收入增加 16%，淨收入增加 21%。

In the marketplace in the first grew 20% year-over-year, and the revenue, 33%, net income, 19%. And the fintech origination volumes grew 17%, 18% revenue, 8% net income -- the monthly transactions have been strong, and we continue to have a very engaged consumer base and the revenue plus 21% net income plus 16%.

第一季市場年增20%，營收成長33%，淨利成長19%。金融科技發起量成長了 17%，營收成長了 18%，淨收入成長了 8%——月度交易量一直很強勁，我們繼續擁有非常活躍的消費者基礎，收入成長了 21%，淨收入成長了 16%。

The overall the company's underlying performance is broadly within our expectations. It could have been better on the GMV side. There was requirements to register smartphones, which was introduced in Kazakhstan and that had a quite significant temporary impact on the demand for smartphones.

整體而言，該公司的基本表現大致符合我們的預期。GMV 方面本來可以做得更好。哈薩克推出了智慧型手機註冊要求，這對智慧型手機需求產生了相當大的暫時影響。

And then on the FinTech side, we see the continuous high interest rate environment which, again, will continue probably through this year. And we are here also introducing higher interest new deposit products, which I will talk a bit as well.

在金融科技方面，我們看到持續的高利率環境，而這種環境可能還會持續到今年。我們在這裡也推出了更高利息的新存款產品，我也會談談。

So next slide, David, please. So the gross e-grocery, this is the business which we have started one of -- the fastest-growing business in our e-commerce. We continue scaling fast and expect to continue strong growth through the year. The active consumers reached almost [EUR1 million]. The GMV 64% up year-over-year and then the purchases are 66%, up year-over-year with a 3.3 million purchases in the first Q.

大衛，請看下一張投影片。因此，電子雜貨總額是我們開展的業務之一，也是電子商務中成長最快的業務。我們將繼續快速擴張，並預計全年將繼續強勁成長。活躍消費者幾乎達到[100萬歐元]。GMV 年增 64%，購買量年增 66%，第一季購買量達 330 萬筆。

As you know, we are operating in the three cities, three largest cities now. And we are planning to enter another two cities. So the team continues to execute on the grocery and you see that average ticket is very good, stable.

如您所知，我們目前在三個城市，三個最大的城市開展業務。我們也計劃進入另外兩個城市。因此，團隊繼續執行雜貨業務，您會發現平均票價非常好，穩定。

And yes, we just continue scaling across the country with the -- simultaneously, as you know, Kaspi is very good at continuously good from an operational side, but also scale, and we are entering the new cities to support the growth, and we expect e-Grocery to continue scaling fast through the year.

是的，我們只是繼續在全國範圍內擴大規模——同時，正如你所知，Kaspi 非常擅長在運營方面持續保持良好勢頭，而且規模也很大，我們正在進入新的城市來支持增長，我們預計電子雜貨業務將在今年繼續快速擴張。

New term deposits that we have launched for consumers. Those deposits are aiming at a higher interest rate. Our interest rate environment has been basically due to all sorts of factors which have nothing to do with Kaspi itself. We are in the high interest environment and there is a demand for deposits, which, on the one hand, have high interest. On the other hand, those deposits are for sort of savings, where you can top up deposit basically anytime, but the term of deposit is actually fixed to the three months or six months.

我們為消費者推出的新定期存款。這些存款的目標是更高的利率。我們的利率環境基本上是由各種與 Kaspi 本身無關的因素造成的。我們處在高利率的環境下，有存款的需求，而存款一方面有高利息。另一方面，這些存款是一種儲蓄，您基本上可以隨時充值，但存款期限實際上固定為三個月或六個月。

The deposits itself have been very successful in the market. As you can see, we went from basically nothing to 84,000 consumers and almost KZT379 billion of those deposits. So they are growing fast. There is a demand for those deposits. And therefore, this product has been quite successful, and we will be -- as you know, the strategy we have always said historically is those are the best consumers that are saving with you.

存款本身在市場上非常成功。如您所見，我們從一無所有發展到擁有 84,000 名消費者和近 3790 億堅戈存款。所以它們發展得很快。這些存款是有需求的。因此，這款產品非常成功，而且我們——正如您所知，我們一直以來的策略是，與您一起省錢的才是最好的消費者。

And in the future, they are making purchases through all our other services and therefore, investing into the -- acquiring the consumer deposits and the consumers with deposits have been part of our historical strategy always.

將來，他們會透過我們所有其他服務進行購買，因此，投資獲取消費者存款和擁有存款的消費者一直是我們歷史策略的一部分。

Again, in the future, interest rates will go down, and therefore, there is additional opportunity for the profitability. At this stage, we are in the high interest environment. Therefore, we're taking advantage of this as well.

同樣，未來利率將會下降，因此，獲利的機會也會更多。現階段，我們處於高利率環境。因此，我們也利用了這一點。

We have been going through the different deposit terms upgrades. So this is just a bit of a time line for you guys to understand. So for example, we did reduce the deposit in February of '24, from 14% to 15%. But then in '25, we do have a high interest environment. So we have introduced six month maturity deposits at 17%. Then we have increased the rate on all our current deposits from 14% to 15%. And then we introduced the three month maturity deposit at 18% interest rate.

我們一直在研究不同的存款條款升級。這只是一條供大家了解的時間軸。例如，我們確實在 24 年 2 月將存款從 14% 降低到了 15%。但在 25 年，我們確實處於高利率環境。因此，我們推出了利率為 17% 的六個月到期存款。然後我們將所有活期存款的利率從 14% 提高到 15%。然後我們推出了三個月期限的存款，利率為 18%。

The way that we work with our consumers, for example, when we introduce -- when we increase the rate of the existing deposit from 14% to 15%, we reprice our entire portfolio. So that's the way our products work, and we have been doing this consistently for as long as we had basically deposit products. So that's something you should keep in mind. As soon as we increase the interest rate, we reprice our entire portfolio. So when we went from 14% to 15%, we, therefore, repriced the existing portfolio of our Kaspi deposit. And now the fastest-growing deposits are the ones which offer the higher interest rate of 18% and 17%.

例如，當我們引入——當我們將現有存款利率從 14% 提高到 15% 時，我們會重新定價我們的整個投資組合。這就是我們的產品的工作方式，自從我們有存款產品以來，我們就一直在這樣做。所以這是你應該記住的事情。一旦我們提高利率，我們就會重新定價整個投資組合。因此，當我們從 14% 提高到 15% 時，我們重新定價了 Kaspi 存款的現有組合。目前成長最快的是那些提供18%和17%較高利率的存款。

A couple of other things. We have raised Eurobonds. This is our first Eurobond, which we have successfully raised EUR650 million at 6.250% which is due in 2030. Again, this was for us an opportunity to build a track record with fixed income investors, and this is the first Eurobond we have done.

還有幾件事。我們已經發行了歐洲債券。這是我們的第一筆歐洲債券，我們成功籌集了 6.5 億歐元，利率為 6.250%，將於 2030 年到期。再次，這對我們來說是一個與固定收益投資者建立業績記錄的機會，這是我們發行的第一筆歐洲債券。

And yes, considering our strategy for international expansion and investments in Turkiye more specifically, it's good to be in a position of the financial strength. So that's good to build a track record, but also specifically that transaction was successful in our Eurobond fundraising.

是的，考慮到我們的國際擴張策略以及在土耳其的投資策略，擁有雄厚的財務實力是件好事。因此，這對於建立業績記錄是件好事，而且具體來說，該交易在我們的歐洲債券融資中取得了成功。

We have also signed the agreement to acquire Rabobank. And this is a fully licensed bank, which doesn't really have any customers and doesn't have a branch network. And this enables us to continue developing a fintech product in Turkiye. And also our initial plan is that we will invest roughly around $300 million in 2025 to fund our fintech strategy in Turkiye.

我們也簽署了收購荷蘭合作銀行的協議。這是一家擁有完全執照的銀行，但實際上沒有任何客戶，也沒有分行網路。這使我們能夠繼續在土耳其開發金融科技產品。我們的初步計劃是，到 2025 年我們將投資約 3 億美元來資助我們在土耳其的金融科技策略。

So David, back to you just to go through the platforms.

那麼，大衛，回到你這裡，只是為了介紹平台。

Yes, sure. So thank you, Mikheil. So firstly, on the payments platform pretty straightforward. Decent volume growth of 17% year-on-year, faster TPV growth, up 23% year-on-year. That is a function of higher ticket size, higher inflation, all three of the core payment products are contributing to that, Kaspi Pay, bill payments and B2B payments.

是的，當然。所以謝謝你，米哈伊爾。首先，支付平台非常簡單。銷量較去年同期成長17%，成長較快，TPV較去年同期成長23%。這是由於票面金額增加、通貨膨脹率上升所致，三種核心支付產品（Kaspi Pay、帳單支付和 B2B 支付）都對此做出了貢獻。

With B2B payments, growing and expected to continue growing at a faster rate than overall TPV. Take rate moves down to 1.13%, that is consistent with the trend over the last 12 months to 18 months and is simply a function of mix change, namely B2B payments and Kaspi Pay QR growing in share within the mix.

隨著 B2B 支付的成長，預計將繼續以比整體 TPV 更快的速度成長。接受率降至 1.13%，這與過去 12 個月至 18 個月的趨勢一致，僅僅是組合變化的函數，即 B2B 支付和 Kaspi Pay QR 在組合中的份額不斷增長。

In terms of the financials, TPV growth with some yield compression results in 16% revenue growth versus 23% TPV growth. There is a slower revenue growth on interest balances. Average current account balances increased 8% year-on-year.

從財務角度來看，TPV 成長加上一定的收益壓縮，導致營收成長 16%，而 TPV 成長 23%。利息餘額的收入成長較慢。平均經常帳餘額較去年同期成長8%。

But overall, 16% is decent. And then as you've consistently seen with payments business, the combination of tight cost control and its inherent operational gearing ensures that strong top line drops through at a faster rate to the bottom line, 21% bottom line growth. Outlook for payments, highly predictable, healthy and unchanged versus when we updated the market at the end of February.

但總體而言，16% 還是不錯的。然後，正如您在支付業務中一直看到的那樣，嚴格的成本控制和其固有的營運槓桿相結合，確保了強勁的營收以更快的速度下降到底線，即 21% 的底線成長。與我們在二月底更新市場時相比，支付前景高度可預測、健康且沒有變化。

Moving on to marketplace. Marketplace remains the fastest-growing top line platform. GMV growth up 20% year-on-year in the first quarter, supported by purchases up over 36% year-on-year, e-Commerce and e-Grocery particularly playing the part. But actually, again, just like with payments, all three services, e-Commerce, m-Commerce and Travel are contributing to growth.

進入市場。市場仍然是成長最快的頂級平台。第一季 GMV 年成長 20%，這得益於購買量年增超過 36%，其中電子商務和電子雜貨發揮了尤為重要的作用。但實際上，就像支付一樣，電子商務、行動商務和旅遊這三種服務都在促進成長。

Take rate moves up, a continuation also of a theme you've seen over the last couple of years, driven by value-added services. Take rate accretion will ensure fast GMV growth drops through to the revenue at a faster rate.

利率上升，這也是過去幾年來我們看到的一個主題的延續，由增值服務推動。收取率的增加將確保快速的 GMV 成長以更快的速度轉化為收入。

Specifically on e-Commerce. e-Commerce increased -- e-Commerce GMV increased 23% year-on-year on the back of purchases, up 97% year-on-year. Grocery, the main driver of that growth, that high number of growth in purchases.

特別是電子商務。電商成長－受購買力推動，電商GMV年增23%，較去年同期成長97%。食品雜貨是這項成長的主要驅動力，購買量大幅成長。

As Mikheil talked about, however, in March of the year, the Kazakh government introduced requirements around the registration for smartphones imported into the country. A number of reasons for this, but one being to ensure the correct duties are paid by importers and merchants and what that meant is a sharp increase in prices on smartphones countrywide at a falloff in demand in the final month of the quarter.

然而，正如米哈伊爾所說，今年 3 月，哈薩克政府推出了對進口到該國的智慧型手機進行登記的要求。造成這種情況的原因有很多，但其中之一是為了確保進口商和商家繳納正確的關稅，這意味著全國範圍內的智慧型手機價格大幅上漲，而本季的最後一個月需求則下降。

Smartphones are an important GMV category for e-Commerce. They account for around 18% of e-Commerce. And we estimate the impact of the fall off in demand in March knocked around 7 percentage points of growth, so that 23% GMV growth would have been around 30%. You can expect this to remain a theme in the second quarter of the year. But the good news is that this will be temporary. Once this has sort of worked through, demand for smartphones in Kazakhstan is not going to change. And actually, it's perfectly possible, you see some catch-up effect in the second half of the year.

智慧型手機是電子商務的重要GMV類別。它們佔電子商務的18%左右。我們估計，3 月需求下降的影響使成長率下降了約 7 個百分點，因此 23% 的 GMV 成長率應為 30% 左右。您可以預期這仍將是今年第二季的主題。但好消息是這只是暫時的。一旦這項措施得以實施，哈薩克對智慧型手機的需求就不會改變。事實上，這是完全有可能的，你會在下半年看到一些追趕效應。

Moving on to m-Commerce. m-Commerce also delivered a decent growth, GMV up 17%. Take rate accretion in m-Commerce is less than for e-Commerce. E-Commerce is the beneficiary of value-add, it is the main beneficiary of value-added services, advertising delivery and classifieds. So e-Commerce take rate moved up to 12.5%, 140 bps and m-Commerce take rate moved up 20 bps. m-Commerce growth also impacted by the slowdown in smartphone sales in March, but to a much lesser extent than e-Commerce.

轉向移動商務。行動商務也實現了可觀的成長，GMV 成長了 17%。行動商務的接受率增幅低於電子商務。電子商務是增值的受益者，它的主要受益者是增值服務、廣告投放和分類廣告。因此，電子商務的接受率上升至 12.5%，即 140 個基點，而行動商務的接受率上升了 20 個基點。 3 月份，行動商務的成長也受到了智慧型手機銷售放緩的影響，但影響程度遠低於電子商務。

Kaspi Travel continues to deliver good, healthy results. GMV up 22%. Strong growth across the Board, but again, Tours do it, which we introduced around 12 to 18 months ago, delivering really decent GMV performance and now up to 11% of Travel GMV from 0, just 18 months ago and driving the increase in take rate here. So take rate moves up to 5.3% from 4.5%. Further innovations planned in Travel over the course of the year.

Kaspi Travel 繼續帶來良好、健康的表現。GMV成長22%。各方面都實現了強勁增長，但更重要的是，我們在大約 12 到 18 個月前推出的旅遊業務，帶來了非常不錯的 GMV 表現，現在旅遊 GMV 的佔比從 18 個月前的 0 上升到了 11%，並推動了這裡的接受率的增長。因此利率將從 4.5% 上調至 5.3%。今年我們計劃在旅遊領域進行進一步的創新。

In terms of the financials for marketplace, fast GMV growth, both with take rate expansion in all three platforms translates into faster revenue growth, up 33% year-on-year. That's versus the 20% GMV growth. Profit growth is lower, and that, again, is consistent with trends over the last two years is primarily a function of growth in e-Grocery.

從市場財務狀況來看，GMV 快速成長，三個平台的佣金率均提高，這意味著收入成長更快，較去年同期成長 33%。這與 20% 的 GMV 成長率形成對比。利潤成長較低，這與過去兩年的趨勢一致，主要是由於電子雜貨的成長。

The other point to call out here is that going forward, it is possible that some large ticket size discretionary transactions, which would be largely weighted towards e-commerce are impacted by broader macroeconomic uncertainty. So categories to call out would be categories like consumer electronics and cars. Keep in mind that a category like cars, one transaction makes a material contribution to GMV with a negligible contribution to the bottom line. We can come back to that later on.

這裡要指出的另一點是，展望未來，一些大額可自由支配的交易（主要集中在電子商務）可能會受到更廣泛的宏觀經濟不確定性的影響。因此，需要關注的類別是消費性電子產品和汽車等類別。請記住，對於汽車這樣的類別，一筆交易對 GMV 的貢獻很大，但對底線的貢獻卻微乎其微。我們稍後可以再討論這個問題。

Finally, moving on to the fintech platform. Decent marketplace growth translates into decent TFV origination. As has been the case over the last couple of years, the growth has been primarily being driven on the merchant side of the equation rather than on the consumer side of the equation. And again, that should be a theme that replicates, it continues to be seen going forward.

最後，轉向金融科技平台。良好的市場成長轉化為良好的 TFV 起源。正如過去幾年的情況一樣，成長主要由商家推動，而不是消費者推動。再說一次，這應該是一個重複的主題，它會繼續向前發展。

On the balance sheet side of things for the last 2.5 years, you've seen the loan portfolio grow at a faster rate than the deposit portfolio. That will now switch around the other way. The loan-to-deposit ratio is high. And just as you saw in 2022, we'll take advantage of a high interest rate environment to once again focus on growing the deposit base, as Mikheil talked about, the logic being more deposits will drive more future transactions and will give us more funding, which again will drive more future transactions on the marketplace business. Pricing trends in fintech stable year-on-year.

從過去 2.5 年的資產負債表來看，貸款組合的成長速度快於存款組合的成長速度。現在將轉換到另一種方式。貸存比較高。正如您在 2022 年看到的那樣，我們將利用高利率環境再次專注於擴大存款基礎，正如 Mikheil 談到的那樣，其邏輯是更多的存款將推動更多的未來交易，並為我們提供更多資金，這又將推動市場業務未來更多的交易。金融科技的定價趨勢較去年同期穩定。

Cost of risk in the quarter increased to 0.6% from 0.5%. The increase was primarily due to macro provisioning and that macro provisioning is related to the sharp increase in interest rates in the first quarter. Underlying credit trends remain unchanged. And for the year, we expect a cost of risk to remain stable. Therefore, cost of risk was a drag on fintech profitability in the first quarter. But over the course of the year, again, we expect stable trends.

本季風險成本從 0.5% 上升至 0.6%。這一成長主要源自於宏觀撥備，而宏觀撥備與第一季利率大幅上升有關。基本信貸趨勢維持不變。我們預計今年的風險成本將保持穩定。因此，風險成本拖累了第一季金融科技的獲利能力。但我們預計今年的趨勢將保持穩定。

The increase in the NPL ratio versus the end of the year is normal Q1 seasonality. Actually, if you look back on the last, the Q1 conference calls over the last couple of years, you'll see a similar pattern, Q1 NPLs move up and then they typically move down again in the second quarter related to seasonality.

不良貸款率較年底上升，屬於第一季正常的季節性現象。實際上，如果回顧過去幾年的第一季電話會議，你會看到類似的模式，第一季的不良貸款率上升，然後由於季節性因素，通常在第二季度再次下降。

So decent TFV growth over the last 18 months has translated into decent revenue growth of 18%. Higher cost of risk muted net income growth in the first quarter of 8%. But again, we expect cost of risk to be flat over the course of the year, although as Mikheil has talked about higher funding costs now will be a theme as we grow the absolute number of deposits and the cost of those deposits has increased materially.

因此，過去 18 個月 TFV 的良好成長轉化為 18% 的良好收入成長。風險成本上升導致第一季淨收入成長僅 8%。但是，我們再次預計風險成本在一年內將保持平穩，儘管正如米哈伊爾所說的那樣，隨著存款絕對數量的增加和這些存款成本的大幅增加，更高的融資成本現在將成為一個主題。

You should keep in mind that we came into this year with interest rates at 14% across the portfolio. And within a couple of months, the latest product has rates of 18%. That's a substantial increase in costs in a short period of time, but we see it again as an investment in the business, assuming we have successfully attracted deposits over the remainder of the year.

您應該記住，今年我們的投資組合利率為 14%。幾個月內，最新產品的利率就達到了 18%。在短時間內，這會導致成本大幅增加，但我們認為這再次是對業務的投資，前提是我們在今年剩餘時間內成功吸引存款。

Moving on to Hepsiburada, their first quarter results were published by the close of market on Thursday of last week. You can refer to their disclosures for a detailed update. On the revenue side of things, we just make the main call out would be the politically-driven consumer boycotts in March did materially impact GMV trends. That also meant that the company pulled back on its marketing, performance marketing initiatives, which again exasperated the revenue -- negative revenue momentum in the quarter.

再來談談 Hepsiburada，第一季業績於上週四收盤時公佈。您可以參考他們的披露以獲取詳細更新。在收入方面，我們主要要指出的是，3 月由政治因素引發的消費者抵制確實對 GMV 趨勢產生了重大影響。這也意味著該公司撤回了行銷和績效行銷計劃，這再次加劇了本季的收入——負面收入動能。

On the cost side of things, the combination, therefore, of negative operational gearing, number one, and growth in loan loss provisions, number two, resulted in a net loss of TRY355 million. Around 40% of that loss is coming from higher loan loss provisions. That is perfectly normal in the context of early-stage fintech products. You're testing your risk, you're experimenting with different risk models or higher provisioning is a normal consequence of that, number one.

因此，從成本方面來看，首先是負營運負債率，其次是貸款損失準備金的成長，這兩個因素的結合導致了 3.55 億土耳其里拉的淨虧損。其中約40%的損失來自更高的貸款損失準備金。對於早期金融科技產品來說，這是完全正常的。首先，您正在測試您的風險，您正在嘗試不同的風險模型，或者更高的撥備是正常的結果。

And number two, just to avoid sort of any confusion here, these sort of loan products should not be confused with what Kaspi is doing with its bank acquisition in Turkey. This relates to product initiatives that were started in Hepsiburada last year and have been part of its strategy over the last couple of years.

第二，為了避免任何混淆，這些貸款產品不應與 Kaspi 在土耳其的銀行收購混淆。這與去年在 Hepsiburada 啟動的產品計劃有關，並已成為過去幾年其策略的一部分。

So for Kaspi, despite the impact of lower smartphone sales in March, and despite higher macro provisioning in the first quarter. The first quarter results were broadly where we expected them to be. Revenue up 21%, net income up 16% year-on-year. If you ex out the impact of the macro provisioning, net income would have been up around 19% year-on-year. These numbers exclude Turkey.

因此，對於 Kaspi 而言，儘管 3 月份智慧型手機銷量下降造成了影響，並且第一季宏觀撥備有所增加。第一季的業績基本上符合我們的預期。營業收入較去年同期成長21%，淨利年增16%。若剔除宏觀撥備的影響，淨收入將年增19%左右。這些數字不包括土耳其。

Including Turkey, revenue increased to KZT834 billion. Net income loss was -- net income was KZT254 billion profit. The loss from Turkey was equivalent to KZT6 billion, around sort of 2% dilution. So a small negative impact from Turkey and particularly small in the context of Kaspi and relative to the long-term opportunity that Turkey offers.

包括土耳其在內，收入增加至8,340億堅戈。淨收入虧損為－淨收入為利潤2,540億堅戈。土耳其的損失相當於 60 億堅戈，約佔 2% 的稀釋。因此，土耳其的負面影響很小，尤其是在卡斯皮危機的背景下，以及相對於土耳其提供的長期機會而言，這種影響尤其小。

So moving on to the guidance. GMV growth moves to [15%] to 20% from 25% to 30% previously. So number one, that is a function of the new rules for imported smartphones, it meant higher prices in the short term and temporarily lower demand. But again, this should be a short-term effect that should work itself out in the second half of the year and into the following year.

接下來是指導。GMV 成長率從先前的 25% 至 30% 調整為 [15%] 至 20%。首先，這是進口智慧型手機新規的功能，這意味著短期內價格上漲，需求暫時下降。但同樣，這應該是短期影響，應該會在今年下半年和明年顯現出來。

Secondly, increased macro uncertainty and the potential for that to impact higher ticket verticals. I gave the example of cars, average ticket size for one car transaction, $10,000 versus average ticket size for an e-commerce transaction, $30.

其次，宏觀不確定性增加，並有可能對高票價垂直行業產生影響。我舉了汽車的例子，一輛汽車交易的平均票價為 10,000 美元，而電子商務交易的平均票價為 30 美元。

So you can see there how that vertical could have a disproportionate impact on GMV, but almost no impact on the bottom line. That change in outlook should not be confused with the change in outlook for the core 3P marketplace business beyond the point we've made on smartphones. TPV outlook unchanged, TFV growth of around 15% at the lower end of the range, given previously of 15% to 20%. And again, that just reflects slower marketplace growth.

所以你可以看到，該垂直行業可能對 GMV 產生不成比例的影響，但對底線幾乎沒有影響。這種觀點的改變不應與我們在智慧型手機領域之外的核心 3P 市場業務的觀點的改變相混淆。TPV 前景保持不變，TFV 成長率處於範圍低端，約 15%，先前預計為 15% 至 20%。再次強調，這只是反映出市場成長放緩。

There's a couple of other factors to point out. Number one, higher interest rates. We talked about it before. That in itself is probably the sort of biggest drag on earnings. But again, just to reiterate, whilst that is a headwind in the near term, interest rates in Kazakhstan are extremely high. And over the medium term, that should turn into an important tailwind for the business, number one.

還有一些其他因素需要指出。第一，更高的利率。我們之前討論過這個。這本身可能就是對獲利的最大拖累。但再次重申，雖然這在短期內是一個阻力，但哈薩克的利率非常高。從中期來看，這應該會成為業務發展的重要順風，這是第一點。

Number two, we expect the Kazakh government to introduce a 10% tax on revenue from investments, primarily in government securities. We expect this to be applied to interest revenue for the whole of 2025 at 10%, number one; and number two, we expect the government to increase National Bank reserves from the summer of this year.

第二，我們預期哈薩克政府將對投資收入徵收 10% 的稅，主要針對政府證券。我們預計這將應用於2025年全年的利息收入，成長率為10%，位居第一；第二，我們預計政府將從今年夏天開始增加國家銀行儲備。

Both of these two factors are still to be confirmed, but we think there is a high probability and hence, we include them in our guidance today. The combined effect of those two factors will be around sort of approximately 200 bps of net income this year. So there's a number of moving parts. The question is, is the guidance conservative? Well, we try to definitely reflect these different scenarios in the updated guidance to the best extent that we can.

這兩個因素仍有待確認，但我們認為可能性很高，因此我們將它們納入今天的指導中。這兩個因素的綜合影響將使今年的淨收入下降約 200 個基點。因此，存在許多活動部件。問題是，該指導意見是否保守？好吧，我們盡力在更新後的指南中明確反映這些不同的情況。

On that note, we will open the call up to Q&A.

關於這一點，我們將開始電話問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Ygal Arounian.

伊加爾·阿魯尼安。

Hey, guys, good morning, good afternoon. Ygal Arounian from Citi. Maybe just on the macro because I have a couple of factors. If you could expand on the macro uncertainty in Kazakhstan. Is that driven just by the higher interest rates? Or are there more things you're seeing there? If you could help us kind of understand the framework of what's going on there?

嘿，大家早上好，下午好。花旗銀行的 Ygal Arounian。也許只是從宏觀角度來看，因為我有幾個因素。如果您可以詳細說明哈薩克的宏觀不確定性。這只是由於利率上升所致嗎？或者你在那裡看到了更多的東西？您能否幫助我們了解那裡發生的事情的框架？

And then in Turkey to with the boycotts, has that changed your -- I know it's not going to change your long-term outlook, but your near-term outlook for the integration, your expectations around what you can do in Turkey. Would love to kind of get a sense on that level? Thanks.

那麼在土耳其發生的抵制是否改變了你的——我知道這不會改變你的長期前景，但會改變你對一體化的近期前景，以及你對在土耳其能做什麼的期望。很想了解這個層面嗎？謝謝。

All right, Ygal. Thanks for your question. So on macro, I guess, there's a couple of things you could sort of point to, but I think let's just keep it simple. Lower oil price can translate into slower GDP growth, number one. Volatility in commodity prices can translate into currency volatility and increased uncertainty number two.

好的，伊加爾。謝謝你的提問。因此，從宏觀角度來看，我想，您可以指出幾件事，但我認為我們還是簡單一點。首先，油價下跌可能導致 GDP 成長放緩。大宗商品價格的波動可能轉化為貨幣波動和不確定性的增加。

Again, I wouldn't overexaggerate this. I mentioned earlier, we expect payment trends to be resilient throughout the year. Payment trends are indicative of spending in the economy, but some high-ticket discretionary transactions, which would be weighted to marketplace and could disproportionately impact GMV could be impacted to some extent. And we're choosing to take a conservative approach.

再次強調，我不會過度誇大這一點。我之前提到過，我們預計全年支付趨勢將保持彈性。支付趨勢可以反映經濟支出情況，但一些高價位的可自由支配交易可能會受到一定程度的影響，這些交易會對市場產生影響，並可能對 GMV 產生不成比例的影響。我們選擇採取保守的方法。

The third area, currency weakness translates into inflation and higher interest rates, which we've talked about, and that is a pressure on earnings in the near term. So there are a number of different moving parts. They create some more uncertainty at the margin. We're taking a conservative approach. But again, overall, the outlook for this year remains robust and decent.

第三個領域，貨幣疲軟轉化為通貨膨脹和更高的利率，我們已經討論過了，這將對短期獲利造成壓力。因此，存在許多不同的活動部件。它們在邊緣上創造了更多的不確定性。我們採取保守的態度。但整體而言，今年的前景依然強勁且良好。

On Turkey, simple answer for me is no. But I know have Mikheil has anything to add to that.

關於土耳其，我的答案很簡單，那就是「不」。但我知道米哈伊爾對此還有什麼補充。

Yes. I mean in terms of our plants, we has -- doesn't have any impact? Again, whoever has been -- who has been following the Kaspi and the way we sort of work, I think it's all about quality of the product, quality of the consumer and the merchant experience and that's what is important for the long-term success. It's -- again, it's not about competition. It's not -- it's really about delivering the super quality products and the services to our customers. And that has been our most important strategic priority always in our operation. So that remains our focus.

是的。我的意思是，就我們的工廠而言，我們沒有任何影響嗎？再說一次，無論是誰——誰一直在關注 Kaspi 以及我們的工作方式，我認為一切都與產品品質、消費者品質和商家體驗有關，而這些對於長期成功至關重要。再說一遍，這與競爭無關。事實並非如此——這實際上是為了向我們的客戶提供優質的產品和服務。這始終是我們營運中最重要的策略重點。所以這仍然是我們的重點。

Okay. And just a follow-up then on Turkey and the Rabobank acquisition, you talk about a little bit more of the early steps there and building out the fintech platform, how much progress have you made? Maybe an update on time line products as you roll that out. Thank you so much.

好的。那麼，關於土耳其和荷蘭合作銀行收購案的後續問題，您能否談談那裡的早期步驟以及金融科技平台的構建，您取得了多少進展？當您推出產品時，可能會對時間軸產品進行更新。太感謝了。

Well, at this stage, we are still in the process of getting the approval for the acquisition. So that will happen probably sometime in the second half of the year. And -- and therefore, that's basically the most important immediate step for us to put in a simple words, a license to launch the products on the market.

嗯，目前，我們仍在獲得收購批准的過程中。所以這大概會在今年下半年的某個時候發生。因此，這基本上是我們最重要的直接步驟，用簡單的話來說，就是頒發在市場上推出產品的許可證。

We do see a lot of opportunities in the digital and online services. So as soon as we have approval in, then we will start -- yes, we'll start introducing some of the fintech products on to the market in Turkiye, but we're really excited about the things that we could do and how we can take fintech and financial services to another level.

我們確實在數位和線上服務領域看到了很多機會。因此，一旦我們獲得批准，我們就會開始——是的，我們將開始向土耳其市場推出一些金融科技產品，但我們對我們可以做的事情以及如何將金融科技和金融服務提升到另一個層次感到非常興奮。

Great. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Darrin Peller, Wolfe Research.

達林·佩勒（Darrin Peller），沃爾夫研究公司。

Alright. Thanks, guys. Can we just start off by going a little further into those onetime factors impacting guidance one more time. I mean I think the interest rate on securities, just -- is that a one year item? Just trying to figure out the timing of that. And even on the smartphone dynamic, if you can explain a little bit more of what exactly happened, how you estimate it's impacting your numbers? And then putting those aside, what you see as marketplace normalized growth right now, if you were to pull out some of the factors on the macro front that you're just referring to now. Thank you.

好吧。謝謝大家。我們能否先進一步探討影響指導的那些一次性因素。我的意思是，我認為證券的利率只是──這是一年期的項目嗎？只是想弄清楚那個時間。甚至在智慧型手機動態方面，您是否可以進一步解釋一下究竟發生了什麼，以及您認為這會對您的數據產生什麼影響？然後，拋開這些，如果您要提取您現在提到的宏觀方面的一些因素，那麼您現在看到的市場正常化成長是什麼。謝謝。

Yes, Darrin. So a couple of things. So all right, firstly, let's do the smartphone one. So this is a ruling that came into place in March. It relates to the import of all devices, smartphone devices into the country. The unique code within the device needs to be registered with the authorities. I mean this is actually quite common all around the world. There's different reasons for this security being, one, to ensure the relevant sort of import duties are paid. Number two, amongst other factors.

是的，達林。有幾件事。好的，首先，我們來做智慧型手機。這是三月生效的裁決。它涉及所有設備、智慧型手機設備的進口。設備內的唯一代碼需要向有關部門註冊。我的意思是這實際上在世界各地都很常見。採取這種安全措施的原因有很多，第一，是為了確保支付相關的進口關稅。第二，除其他因素外。

And what that has meant is that over across the country, the price of smartphones increased, number one, and demand temporarily fell off. You saw this quite dramatically in our numbers. In March, and you can expect that to continue in Q2.

這意味著，全國範圍內的智慧型手機價格上漲，而需求則暫時下降。你可以從我們的數據中非常清楚地看到這一點。在三月份，你可以預期這種情況將在第二季繼續下去。

It will work its way through relatively quickly. It's, I guess, a price adjustment, a short-term price adjustment to the margin, nothing hit to the market. Nothing has changed in Kazakhstan with regard to people's use of smartphones and so on.

它會相對較快地發揮作用。我猜，這只是價格調整，一次短期的利潤價格調整，不會對市場造成任何衝擊。哈薩克人民對智慧型手機的使用等方面並沒有任何改變。

So demand should normalize in the second half of the year, as I mentioned, there could also be some sort of catch-up effect there. You asked about normalized rate. Well, I mean I would take the normalized rate. You asked how we can quantify it. Well, we know the size of smartphones as a category within e-commerce.

因此，需求應該會在下半年恢復正常，正如我所提到的，也可能會出現某種追趕效應。您詢問的是標準化費率。嗯，我的意思是我會採取標準化利率。你問我們如何量化它。我們知道，智慧型手機作為電子商務的一個類別的規模。

I said it's about 18% of e-commerce. GMV, we saw the impact in March. So I'd say normalized e-commerce growth rate is around 30%. If you adjust for that factor versus the 20 -- I think, 3% that we reported in the quarter. So that's sort of one-off.

我說的是電子商務大概佔18%。GMV，我們在三月就看到了影響。所以我認為正常的電子商務成長率在30%左右。如果根據該因素進行調整，那麼與本季度我們報告的 20%（我認為是 3%）相比，這一數字是合理的。所以這只是一次性的。

I think the second is interest rates. I mean, that is actually the biggest sort of drag, higher interest rates. You saw that the Central Bank we came into, we sort of -- if you think about sort of six months to seven months ago, just as the trend globally, rates are expected to move down. Inflation started to wobble, Central Bank moved freights up in December and then, again, move them up sharply in March of this year, higher national bank rates to combat inflation, translate into higher deposit rates for us.

我認為第二個是利率。我的意思是，利率上升實際上是最大的拖累。您會看到，當我們進入中央銀行時，如果您回想一下六個月到七個月前的情況，就像全球趨勢一樣，利率預計會下降。通貨膨脹開始波動，央行在 12 月提高了利率，然後在今年 3 月再次大幅提高利率，提高國家銀行利率以對抗通貨膨脹，這對我們來說意味著更高的存款利率。

But again, whilst this isn't one-off, the good news here is that, well, I wouldn't want to speculate on whether interest rates have peaked, but they are incredibly high at the moment, and there is a material drag on earnings in the near term. It's not unreasonable over the medium term to think about rates normalizing, if you think back to sort of 2022 rates were sub-10%. So it's a big change in costs.

但是，雖然這不是一次性的，但好消息是，我不想猜測利率是否已經達到峰值，但目前的利率非常高，並且短期內對盈利產生實質性拖累。如果你回想一下 2022 年利率低於 10% 的情況，那麼從中期來看考慮利率正常化並不是不合理的。因此成本發生了巨大變化。

So what is for 2025, a headwind does have the potential to be a tailwind over the medium term, although the timing is difficult to predict. On the 10% tax that's likely to be introduced for liquidity revenue. No, that's not one-off. You should assume that, that stays in place going forward. It's not actually material for us.

那麼對於 2025 年來說，逆風確實有可能在中期內變成順風，儘管時間很難預測。關於可能對流動性收入徵收 10% 的稅。不，這不是一次性的。您應該假設這種情況會一直持續下去。這對我們來說其實並不重要。

There's other banks in Kazakhstan that have a much larger share of their P&L that comes from investment activities. We're a transaction-based business. But at the margin it makes an impact, same also for National Bank higher potential reserve requirements is not huge for us. But again, at the margin, it makes a difference. I talked about sort of those two factors knocking around 2% of growth. So there is a number of different moving parts. We tried to sort of put them all together here and reflect that in the guidance. And probably we've done that correctly.

哈薩克的其他銀行的損益中有很大一部分來自投資活動。我們是一家以交易為基礎的企業。但從邊際上來說，它會產生影響，同樣，對於國家銀行來說，更高的潛在準備金要求對我們來說並不大。但從邊際上看，這還是有差別的。我談到了影響 2% 左右成長的這兩個因素。因此存在許多不同的活動部件。我們嘗試將它們全部整合在一起，並在指導中反映出來。也許我們做得對。

Alright. That's very helpful, David. Mikheil, just a quick follow-up would be on the payment side. When I think of the underlying growth rate, and I see the B2B side, in particular, or bill payment, maybe just break down the key drivers you're seeing more versus less strength and right now affected by macro perhaps. But on the payment side of the business, if you were to break it down a little bit more on what you're seeing more granularly.

好吧。這非常有幫助，大衛。米哈伊爾，我想快速跟進一下付款方面的問題。當我考慮潛在的成長率時，我尤其會看到 B2B 方面或帳單支付，也許只是分解您所看到的更多而非更少的關鍵驅動因素，也許現在受到宏觀因素的影響。但在業務的支付方面，如果您對所看到的內容進行更細緻的細分。

Mikheil, that question is for you.

米哈伊爾，這個問題是問你的。

Yes, sure. I mean on the payment side, at this stage, I mean it's -- I mean our payments business is really all about enabling the flow of the money and the purchasing and the transactions and the payments. So from that perspective, that is -- there is less impact just because we are the drivers of the cashless transactions.

是的，當然。我的意思是，在支付方面，在現階段，我們的支付業務實際上就是實現資金流動、購買、交易和支付。因此從這個角度來看，因為我們是無現金交易的推動者，所以影響較小。

The B2B side, that's something which has been historically growing fast just because of a low penetration, but also the type of services that we launched when the payments can be processed between our merchants and distributors. So from that perspective, we feel like payments business is -- yes, it is in a good place and -- and also we constantly innovate around the payments as well as supporting the growth and B2B is really just one example of what we do.

B2B 方面，從歷史上看，它一直增長迅速，只是因為滲透率低，而且當我們的商家和分銷商之間可以處理付款時，我們推出了這種類型的服務。因此從這個角度來看，我們覺得支付業務——是的，它處於良好狀態——而且我們不斷圍繞支付進行創新並支持成長，B2B 實際上只是我們所做業務的一個例子。

Reggie Smith, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的雷吉史密斯。

Hey, thanks for taking my question. I had a follow-up on the mobile phone things to make sure that I'm understanding it correctly. So as I understand it, I guess, the government is cracking down on counterfeit phones, and like a quick search showed that or suggested that as much as half of the phones brought in to Kazakhstan or sold in Kazakhstan, where, I guess, believed to be counterfeit.

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。我對手機的事情進行了跟踪，以確保我理解正確。據我了解，政府正在嚴厲打擊假手機，快速搜尋顯示或表明，進口到哈薩克或在哈薩克銷售的手機中，有多達一半被認為是假冒的。

You talked about things improving in the back half. It sounds like it's a supply issue more so than the demand issue. Am I thinking about that correctly. Because if the issue is that there just aren't, I guess, legit phones coming in, like how does that correct in the back half of the year?

您談到了後半段情況的改善。聽起來這更多的是一個供應問題而不是需求問題。我這樣想對嗎？因為如果問題在於沒有合法的手機進入，那麼今年下半年該如何解決這個問題呢？

And then a second piece of that, was there any signaling prior to the announcement, that this could be coming down the pipe? And I guess, finally, is there anything else that is going on in Kazakhstan that could potentially be a thing or an issue for you guys from a regulatory perspective that we may not be talking about or thinking about today. When I say we, I mean, US investors. Thank you.

然後第二個問題是，在宣布之前是否有任何信號表明這可能會發生？最後，我想問一下，從監管角度來看，哈薩克還有哪些事情可能會對你們造成影響，而我們今天可能不會談論或考慮這些事情。當我說「我們」時，我指的是美國投資者。謝謝。

I mean, from my side, I wouldn't say it's a supply issue. Let's not sort of overcomplicate it. There's no reason why smartphones can't be imported to Kazakhstan. So it isn't a supply issue. If devices are being imported the correct way, it's just meant a certain increase in prices.

我的意思是，從我的角度來看，我不會說這是一個供應問題。我們不要把它想得太複雜。沒有理由不將智慧型手機進口到哈薩克。所以這不是供應問題。如果設備以正確的方式進口，那就意味著價格會有一定的上漲。

It means the duties are being paid. Actually, this is a good thing in the long run because you are again, just bringing more transactions into the formal economy, of which we are a beneficiary of. This is a blip that will work itself out in the next couple of months. But for any e-commerce business, whether you're in Kazakhstan or globally, in the US, I mean, smartphones are just an important e-commerce category. So any sort of change in demand is hard to escape from, but it will work itself out. Mikheil, anything else on the coming down the pipe that we need to be aware of?

這意味著關稅正在繳納。事實上，從長遠來看這是一件好事，因為你又將更多的交易帶入正規經濟，而我們是其中的受益者。這是一個暫時現象，將在未來幾個月內解決。但對於任何電子商務企業來說，無論你是在哈薩克還是在全球，在美國，智慧型手機都是一個重要的電子商務類別。因此，任何形式的需求變化都難以避免，但它會自行解決。米哈伊爾，還有其他事情需要我們注意嗎？

Well, I mean, we did mention about 10% tax on revenue from government securities. So at the moment, the tax is 0, which is unusual for many other markets. So as part of the new tax code discussions, the new tax of around 10% on revenue for government securities will be introduced, at least we think that it will be introduced.

嗯，我的意思是，我們確實提到了對政府證券收入徵收 10% 的稅。因此，目前的稅率為 0，這對於許多其他市場來說是不尋常的。因此，作為新稅法討論的一部分，將對政府證券收入徵收約 10% 的新稅，至少我們認為會引入此稅種。

And yes, I mean, nothing really else comes to my mind. I think we did discuss on the previous call that the bank tax also being discussed as part of the new tax code that the income tax will be raised from 20% to 25%. And the banking is one of the businesses that we have. So yes. I don't know, I don't think there is anything else at this stage that we believe or we think might have an impact.

是的，我的意思是，我真的沒有想到其他任何事情。我認為我們在之前的電話會議中確實討論過，銀行稅也是新稅法的一部分，所得稅將從 20% 提高到 25%。銀行業務是我們的業務之一。是的。我不知道，我認為現階段沒有其他事情我們認為或認為可能會產生影響。

Got it. That makes sense. And then I guess just to follow up on the mobile phone. And maybe I'm thinking about this wrong. I guess previously, there was a large supply of cheaper mobile phones due to counterfeiting or whatever. And that supply is going to go away. And so now people are going to have to buy legitimate phones that may be more expensive. Is that the right way to think about it? Or have I oversimplified it? Or am I missing something?

知道了。這很有道理。然後我想只需透過手機進行跟進。也許我的想法是錯的。我猜以前，由於假冒或其他原因，廉價手機的供應量很大。而這種供應將會消失。因此現在人們將不得不購買可能更昂貴的正品手機。這是正確的思考方式嗎？或者我是否把它過於簡單化了？或者我遺漏了什麼？

That's the correct way to think about it.

這才是正確的思考方式。

Yes, we estimate that the price for mobile phones will go up.

是的，我們估計手機價格會上漲。

Yes. It's perfect. Thank you.

是的。太完美了。謝謝。

James Friedman.

詹姆斯‧弗里德曼。

Hi, good evening. It's Jamie Friedman at Susquehanna. In terms of the Rabobank acquisition and the overall banking strategy in Turkey, Mikheil, I'm just wondering how you would compare the opportunity there relative to Kazakhstan. How the strategy may be different as you go to market there versus in your home country and what the $300 million investment is targeted to achieve to get you standing up there?

嗨，晚上好。我是薩斯奎漢納的傑米·弗里德曼。關於荷蘭合作銀行的收購以及土耳其的整體銀行業策略，米哈伊爾，我只是想知道您如何比較土耳其與哈薩克斯坦之間的機會。當您進入那裡的市場和進入您的祖國的市場時，策略會有什麼不同？您投資 3 億美元的目的是什麼，讓您在當地立足？

Okay. Well, I mean, we will be discussing the details in a due course. And the one thing I can mention that the investment itself should the transaction be improved, this combination of the funding the product development, but also the capital, which any license bank needs a minimum capital to operate. So all those things will just give us an opportunity to innovate around the financial services. I wouldn't expect anything or major introduction of the new sort of services this year.

好的。嗯，我的意思是，我們將在適當的時候討論細節。我可以提到的一件事是，投資本身應該改善交易，這種組合不僅為產品開發提供資金，而且還需要資本，任何持牌銀行都需要最低資本才能運作。所以所有這些事情都會給我們提供圍繞金融服務進行創新的機會。我不會期待今年會推出任何新服務或重大新服務。

The approval only itself will take us into the second half and when you think about the financial services, in general, it's important to have a very high-quality product from the very beginning because that's what builds up the loyalty, and therefore, we will be looking to launch not -- I mean, not launch, but basically just do -- we have already, I think, the world-class financial products in our mobile application. So those are the things we'll look to launch.

僅批准本身就會將我們帶入下半場，當你考慮金融服務時，總的來說，從一開始就擁有非常高質量的產品非常重要，因為這是建立忠誠度的關鍵，因此，我們將尋求推出——我的意思是，不是推出，而是基本上只是做——我認為，我們已經在我們的移動應用程序中擁有世界一流的金融產品。這些就是我們希望推出的產品。

But I don't expect anything sort of a major to happen this year because we need to complete acquisition first, gets approval and then set up everything right for the long-term success. So we are not in -- we never hurry to launch things. We want to make sure we get them right and perfect, especially in financial services. And in the lending business, it's equally important to get paid back when you originate. So originating, you either build asset or you build a liability.

但我並不期望今年發生任何重大事件，因為我們需要先完成收購，獲得批准，然後為長期成功做好一切準備。所以我們不會——我們從不急於推出新產品。我們希望確保我們做得正確且完美，特別是在金融服務領域。在貸款業務中，在發放貸款時獲得償還同樣重要。因此，最初，你要麼建立資產，要麼建立負債。

So in our case, you need to build the whole process to make sure that the product is a very high-quality, like Kaspi has, but also the cost of risk, which we have historically around 2%, which is the world class, is really the important metrics for any lending operation.

因此，在我們的案例中，您需要建立整個流程以確保產品品質非常高，就像 Kaspi 一樣，而且風險成本也很高，我們歷史上的風險成本約為 2%，這是世界一流的，這對任何貸款業務來說都是非常重要的指標。

Okay. Thank you for that. And then my follow-up is with regard to the relative growth of 1P versus 3P. So in terms of what is embedded in the assumption for the guidance, David, I think you alluded to this in your prepared remarks. Yes, how should we be thinking about that because that can have an impact on take rates, obviously, and margin. 1P versus 3P assumptions as we travel through the cadence of the year? Thank you.

好的。謝謝你。然後我的後續問題是關於 1P 與 3P 的相對成長。因此，就指導假設中所包含的內容而言，大衛，我認為您在準備好的發言中提到了這一點。是的，我們應該如何考慮這個問題，因為這顯然會對接受率和利潤產生影響。隨著我們度過這一年的節奏，1P 與 3P 假設如何？謝謝。

Well, 1P is really just grocery and to a much lesser extent 1P cars. So 1P grocery, actually, we pulled it out in the first quarter. You saw very, very strong growth. And I think you can expect it to continue to post numbers not dissimilar to what you've seen in the first quarter, which is fast and is faster than the 3P business in response to Darren's question, we talked about 3P business normalized rate of growth in the first quarter, around 30% versus e-Grocery growing north of 50%.

嗯，1P 實際上只是雜貨，1P 的程度要小得多，汽車也很少。因此，實際上，我們在第一季就將 1P 雜貨撤了出去。您看到了非常非常強勁的成長。我認為你可以預期它將繼續發布與第一季類似的數字，這個數字很快，比 3P 業務更快，在回答 Darren 的問題時，我們談到了第一季 3P 業務的正常化增長率，約為 30%，而電子雜貨的增長率則超過 50%。

The one sort of to flag -- again, let's not overexaggerate it because in practice, it's non-core, is 1P cars. 1 and 3P cars, but where it makes a difference to GMV. Again, I made a point sort of a $10,000 transaction versus a $50 or $30 transaction, but the bottom line impact from that is very -- is not material. So don't confuse the GMV downgrade with an equivalent bottom-line downgrade, you'll get to the wrong answer, if you do. Does that answer the question?

需要標記的一種——再說一次，我們不要過度誇大它，因為在實踐中，它不是核心，是 1P 汽車。 1 和 3P 汽車，但它對 GMV 有影響。再次，我強調了 10,000 美元的交易與 50 美元或 30 美元的交易的區別，但其最終影響並不大。因此，不要將 GMV 降級與同等底線降級混淆，否則您將得到錯誤的答案。這回答了問題嗎？

Yes, perfect. Thank you, David.

是的，完美。謝謝你，大衛。

Niraj (inaudible)

尼拉傑（聽不清楚）

Niraj, can you hear us?

Niraj，妳聽得到我們說話嗎？

Sorry, David. I'll follow up with you guys afterwards. Apologies.

抱歉，大衛。之後我會跟進你們的情況。抱歉。

You want to ask your question? I think we've lost him. Let's go to the next question, please.

你想問你的問題嗎？我想我們已經失去他了。請讓我們進入下一個問題。

Gabor Kemeny.

加博爾·凱梅尼。

Hi, David. This is Gabor from Autonomous. Firstly, on funding. Can you help us scale how much is more to come in terms of the increase in funding costs from higher deposit rates and possibly the change in the mix. So what do you pay on the back book? And where do you see your incremental costs overall?

你好，大衛。我是 Autonomous 的 Gabor。第一，關於資金。您能否幫我們估算一下，存款利率提高以及組合變動可能帶來的融資成本增加幅度是多少？那你在後面的書付了多少錢？您認為整體而言您的增量成本是多少？

Secondly, on the pricing of your lending products, have you made changes there? I mean, I seem to recall you were basing -- pricing the buy now, pay later in the mid-teens interest rates, presumably, you would consider making changes when you incremental deposit cost is in the high teens? And just finally, on the Turkish lending products, Hepsi is experimenting with, how comfortable are you with them, introducing your new lending products, when you are about to scale up the fintech offering with the different franchise? Thank you.

第二，你們的貸款產品的定價有沒有什麼改變？我的意思是，我似乎記得您當時是以先買後付的利率來定價的，大概當您的增量存款成本達到十幾歲的時候，您會考慮做出改變嗎？最後，關於 Hepsi 正在試驗的土耳其貸款產品，當您準備透過不同的特許經營擴大金融科技服務時，您對推出新的貸款產品感覺如何？謝謝。

So Gabor. No change to pricing. Gross yield was flat year-on-year, 26%, number one. Number two, increase in percentage cost of funding for the year annualized between 100 bps to 150 bps. Number three, just keep in mind that with a banking -- banking license, you can do things at a different scale. You can have deposit functionality.

所以 Gabor。價格沒有變動。毛收益率與去年同期持平，為26%，排名第一。第二，年度融資成本百分比增加 100 至 150 個基點。第三，請記住，有了銀行執照，你就可以做不同規模的事。您可以擁有存款功能。

If you have deposit functionality, the rationale is, people who save with you, will spend with you, number one. Number two, you can use that to fund more lending, which drives more transaction on your marketplace, exactly the sort of thesis behind Kaspi marketplace in Kazakhstan. So you can do that at a much bigger scale over time. And Hepsi doesn't have anything like that at scale currently, all initiatives are just early in stage, but logical to do.

如果您有存款功能，那麼理由就是，在您這裡存錢的人會在您這裡消費，這是第一點。第二，你可以用它來資助更多的貸款，從而推動你的市場上的更多交易，這正是哈薩克 Kaspi 市場背後的論點。因此，隨著時間的推移，你可以以更大的規模來實現這一目標。目前，Hepsi 還沒有大規模的此類計劃，所有計劃都還處於早期階段，但合乎邏輯。

Thank you, David, all fair points. Just one small follow-up. The 100 basis points to 150 basis points, that was the blended average increase in funding costs you expect this year or something different, please?

謝謝你，大衛，所有觀點都很公正。只需一個小小的後續行動。100 個基點到 150 個基點，這是您預計今年融資成本的混合平均增幅，還是其他什麼？

Correct.

正確的。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Maxine, I think we are ready for the next, please.

馬克辛，我想我們已經準備好進行下一步了。

Can Demir.

德米爾可以。

Yes. Good afternoon. This is John with Wood & Co. Thank you very much for the opportunity. So I have a couple of questions. So on Rabo, I think it was acquired through the Kazakh entity and not through Hepsiburada, as far as I understand it. And I was wondering why you didn't acquire it through Hepsiburada, when this bank will work pretty closely with Kaspi. So that's the first question.

是的。午安.我是 Wood & Co. 的約翰。非常感謝您給我這個機會。我有幾個問題。因此，就 Rabo 而言，我認為它是透過哈薩克實體收購的，而不是透過 Hepsiburada 收購的，據我所知。我很好奇為什麼你們不透過 Hepsiburada 來收購它，因為這家銀行將與 Kaspi 密切合作。這是第一個問題。

The second question is how do you plan to get out of this boycott-driven drag in Turkey? Is it marketing? Is it PR? Are there any plans around it? And the third question is on your cost of risk and asset quality. So -- the cost of risk is, I think, exceptionally low in Kazakhstan, which is good news. But how is it possible that it's not affected by the macro outlook at all when the macro outlook affects GMV and other things. So I was just curious about them. Thank you very much.

第二個問題是，您打算如何擺脫土耳其抵制行動所引發的困境？這是行銷嗎？這是公關嗎？有什麼相關計劃嗎？第三個問題是關於你們的風險成本和資產品質。所以，我認為哈薩克的風險成本非常低，這是個好消息。但當宏觀前景影響 GMV 和其他因素時，它怎麼可能完全不受宏觀前景的影響呢？所以我只是對他們感到好奇。非常感謝。

Can't remember what the first question was.

不記得第一個問題是什麼。

The first question is Rabo was acquired through the Kazakh entity.

第一個問題是 Rabo 是透過哈薩克實體收購的。

Thanks. In simple answer, Hepsi doesn't have the money to acquire and subsequently invest. Kaspi has the money. So simply it's impossible for the Hepsi the entity to fund that transaction. That's the answer to number one. Number -- in the absence of a capital injection into Hepsi, number one.

謝謝。簡單來說，Hepsi 沒有資金進行收購和隨後的投資。卡斯皮有錢。因此，Hepsi 實體根本不可能為該交易提供資金。這就是第一個問題的答案。數字——在沒有向 Hepsi 注資的情況下，第一。

Number two, the boycott, that's probably a question that is better directed towards the Hepsi management team. We wouldn't speak on their behalf. They will update in due course on trading in Q2. And I think the results will answer that question.

第二，關於抵制，這個問題最好直接問 Hepsi 管理團隊。我們不會代表他們發言。他們將適時更新第二季的交易情況。我認為結果將回答這個問題。

Number three, what you need to keep in mind is that the trade-off is not just cost of risk in isolation, it's cost of risk versus volume, so you can manage cost of risk stable by turning down volume or you can accept a higher cost of risk with more volume. So whereas you're looking at cost of risk as the variable, I look at it the other way and look at volume is the variable.

第三，你需要記住的是，權衡不僅僅是孤立的風險成本，而是風險成本與交易量之間的權衡，因此你可以透過降低交易量來穩定風險成本，或者你可以透過增加交易量來接受更高的風險成本。因此，雖然您將風險成本視為變量，但我從另一個角度看待它，並將交易量視為變量。

Okay. And on the first question, so I mean, why wasn't it possible to inject capital into Hepsi? Because I mean, it doesn't look that smooth to me when Rabo will work super closely with Hepsi, but Hepsi has minorities, right? I mean, isn't that a problematic structure slightly?

好的。關於第一個問題，我的意思是，為什麼不能向 Hepsi 注資？因為我的意思是，當 Rabo 與 Hepsi 密切合作時，對我來說看起來並不那麼順利，但 Hepsi 有少數族裔，對吧？我的意思是，這不是有點問題的結構嗎？

No. So in terms of simplicity, this is the sort of simplest way to progress this transaction in the near term, number one. In the medium-term, arrangements can be structured in lots of different ways. But again, you're getting -- you're probably jumping the gun a little bit. Let's just complete this transaction. It's subject to regulatory approval expected in the second half of the year, and then we'll be in a better position to talk in more detail about how we address the point that you fairly raised.

不。因此，從簡單性的角度來說，這是短期內推進這筆交易的最簡單的方法，第一。從中期來看，可以用多種不同的方式來安排。但是，你又一次——你可能有點操之過急了。我們先完成這筆交易吧。預計該計劃將於今年下半年獲得監管部門的批准，屆時我們將能夠更詳細地討論如何解決您提出的問題。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Salman Ali.

薩爾曼·阿里。

Good evening. I am from Fountainhead Partnership. My question, again, comes back to the deposit cost. Two questions related to it. One is that how does your 18% compared with the deposit rates being offered by other banks? And second is that if the Central Bank is planning to increase the reserve requirements. Do you expect another amount of increase in deposit cost as other banks try to manage their liquidity? Thank you.

晚安.我來自 Fountainhead Partnership。我的問題又回到了押金成本。與此相關的兩個問題。一是你們的18%存款利率與其他銀行的存款利率相比如何？第二，看看央行是否打算提高存款準備率。隨著其他銀行試圖管理其流動性，您是否預期存款成本會再次增加？謝謝。

Do you want to talk about the attractiveness of the deposit product, Mikheil?

米哈伊爾，你想談談存款產品的吸引力嗎？

Yes, of course. I mean, in general, our strategy has been always to be -- to have attractive products for our consumers, but would be highest interest rate on the market. And again, our deposit is a bit different from many others because it's a mobile application, consumer experience is better. The process is better and the product itself, it's probably better. So I would say that our interest rate is on the comparable sort of term deposits, the low end. That's number one.

是的當然。我的意思是，總的來說，我們的策略一直是——為我們的消費者提供有吸引力的產品，但同時提供市場上最高的利率。再次強調，我們的存款與其他存款略有不同，因為它是一個行動應用程序，消費者體驗更好。流程更好，產品本身可能也更好。所以我想說我們的利率處於同類定期存款的低端。這是第一點。

Number two, in terms of the National Bank reserve requirements. I mean that's -- the impact that it has on the -- potential impact it has on the net income. It's because the additional National Bank reserves, as they have been discussed currently, they will be interest fee with the National Bank. So that's where the impact really comes on the bottom line.

第二，關於國家銀行儲備要求。我的意思是，這是它對淨收入的潛在影響。這是因為，正如目前正在討論的那樣，額外的國家銀行儲備將向國家銀行收取利息費用。所以這才是真正對底線產生影響的地方。

So it's not really a liquidity issue and I don't think it's a liquidity issue for most of the banks, I would assume so. But not in our case, definitely. But it's just -- this is why we have it in the net income section because if it's an interest-free balances with National Bank, obviously, we don't have interest revenue associated with this.

所以這實際上不是一個流動性問題，而且我認為對大多數銀行來說這也不是一個流動性問題，我是這麼認為的。但在我們的情況下絕對不是這樣。但這只是——這就是為什麼我們將其放在淨收入部分，因為如果它是國家銀行的無息餘額，顯然，我們沒有與此相關的利息收入。

Does that answer the question?

這回答了問題嗎？

Yes. Thank you. I'm just wondering what is the system LDR, like you are at 97%. So do you know what is the system LDR and does it mean it will squeeze other banks?

是的。謝謝。我只是想知道系統 LDR 是多少，就像你的是 97% 一樣。那你知道系統性LDR是什麼嗎？這是否意味著它會擠壓其他銀行？

I can't really help you with other banks. We're really focused on our business and this is what we care about. Historically, we had anywhere from 80% to pretty much close to 100% loan-to-deposit ratio. So it's -- in our case, we're good.

我無法真正幫助您了解其他銀行的情況。我們真正專注於我們的業務，這是我們關心的事情。從歷史上看，我們的貸存比率在 80% 到接近 100% 之間。所以——就我們的情況而言，我們很好。

Thank you very much. Really appreciate it.

非常感謝。真的很感激。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So Maxine, maybe in the interest of time, we can take the final question, please.

那麼 Maxine，也許為了節省時間，我們可以回答最後一個問題。

Ronak Gadhia.

羅納德·加迪亞。

Hi, good afternoon. This is Ronak from (inaudible). Just a quick one on your take rate on payments. We've seen a pretty significant -- a consistent decline over the last two quarters or three quarters, whereas if I look at the TPV breakdown, that hasn't the contribution hasn't changed much. So if you could just talk about what's driving the reduction in take rate and where we should expect that to normalize. Thank you.

嗨，下午好。我是 Ronak，來自（聽不清楚）。我只想簡單問一下你們的付款利率。我們看到了一個相當明顯的趨勢——過去兩個季度或三個季度持續下降，而如果我看一下 TPV 的細分，那麼貢獻並沒有太大變化。因此，您能否談談導致接受率下降的原因以及我們應該如何預期這種下降會正常化。謝謝。

I wouldn't say it's a dramatic change. I'd say it's a gradual change. But if you think about it, the Kaspi Pay is 95 bps, B2B is less than that. Than just mechanically if they grow slightly faster than you will just see gradual attrition and I think you should expect that to continue for a period of time. And that is the expense, which you can't really see in that chart, things like interchange on the legacy card product, which would have been a higher take rate business.

我不會說這是一個巨大的改變。我想說這是一個漸進的改變。但如果你仔細想想，Kaspi Pay 是 95 個基點，B2B 還不到這個數字。如果它們的成長速度比機械速度稍快，你會看到逐漸的損耗，我認為你應該預料到這種情況會持續一段時間。這就是費用，你在圖表中看不出來，例如傳統卡產品的交換費，這本來是一個更高收費的業務。

So your base case going forward should be ongoing gradual attrition in take rate, but it's not substantial. I guess over time, as growth moderates, then so also will -- there'll be also a moderation in take rate dilution as well.

因此，未來的基本情況應該是接受率持續逐漸下降，但幅度並不大。我想，隨著時間的推移，隨著成長放緩，接受率稀釋也會隨之減緩。

Yes. And just to again mention if you look at the track record and the last several years, whatever, our -- the fastest-growing transactions are the Kaspi Pay transaction, 0.95% take rate. So we have always said that as this business becomes bigger, the take rate basically will be gradually moving towards 0.95%.

是的。再次提醒一下，如果你看一下過去幾年的業績記錄，你會發現，我們成長最快的交易是 Kaspi Pay 交易，收取率為 0.95%。因此，我們一直說，隨著這項業務的規模不斷擴大，佣金率基本上將逐步向 0.95% 靠攏。

And exactly for that reason, I think two calls before this one, we have introduced to give a bit more details before we would say like 1.2% take rate, then we said we started to say two digits, like [1.15%] or [1.19%], just so that you can guys track, but this strategy and the trend has not changed. So in the medium term, it will be going towards the lowest take rate business, which is growing the fast, which is the 0.95% take rate.

正是因為這個原因，我想在這次電話會議之前的兩次電話會議上，我們已經介紹了一些更詳細的細節，然後我們才會說 1.2% 的接受率，然後我們開始說兩位數，比如 [1.15%] 或 [1.19%]，這樣你們就可以跟踪，但這種策略和趨勢沒有改變。因此從中期來看，它將走向最低收費率業務，該業務成長最快，即 0.95% 的收費率。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alright. So I think we're going to wrap things up. Apologies if we haven't got to your question, please. We're happy to follow up separately, but we need to move to another meeting now. So thanks a lot for your time today. Thanks, everyone, for your questions. Keep in touch, let us know if you have any follow-up, and we'll speak to you all soon. Thanks a lot, everyone.

好吧。所以我想我們應該結束這件事了。如果我們沒有回答您的問題，請見諒。我們很高興單獨跟進，但現在我們需要轉到另一個會議。非常感謝您今天抽出時間。謝謝大家的提問。保持聯繫，如果您有任何後續事宜請告知我們，我們將盡快與您聯繫。謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's webinar. You may now disconnect from the call.

謝謝大家。今天的網路研討會到此結束。現在您可以掛斷通話了。