克羅格是美國的雜貨連鎖店。基於其上市戰略的成功,該公司有信心在今年餘下時間繼續提高業績指引。克羅格期待在 3 月份的第四季度財報電話會議上分享詳細的 2023 年指引。與此同時,該公司專注於與 Albertsons 的未決合併。預計這將降低客戶價格,投資於員工和商店,並改善客戶體驗。
燃料是克羅格整體價值主張的重要組成部分,公司的燃料獎勵計劃仍然是一個關鍵的差異化因素。第三季度,燃料獎勵參與度仍然很高,導致加侖銷量超過市場。
克羅格報告說,如果沒有該公司令人難以置信的員工,它的結果是不可能的。克羅格在對其員工進行投資方面有著長期的記錄,並致力於繼續這些投資,以確保公司仍然是首選雇主。克羅格是美國一家大型雜貨連鎖店。該公司在紐約證券交易所上市,股票代碼為 KR。按收入計算,克羅格是美國第二大雜貨連鎖店,僅次於沃爾瑪。該公司還是世界第三大零售商,僅次於沃爾瑪和亞馬遜。
Kroger 正在投資數字增長計劃,包括在新的和現有的地區擴展其 Kroger 交付網絡。該公司計劃提高價格以抵消明年的通貨膨脹成本。明年的通貨膨脹率預計為 2.5-3%,但克羅格今年提高了價格,因此他們仍將獲得一些通貨膨脹的好處。此外,克羅格正在投資在線雜貨等增長領域,這應該有助於其在未來繼續增長。
克羅格的首席執行官羅德尼麥克馬倫被問及他們對通貨膨脹的反應以及它如何影響他們的業務。他表示,雜貨價格在通貨膨脹方面最為頑固,如果這種情況持續下去,將為公司提高利潤率和擴大份額提供機會。 McMullen 隨後討論了公司的資本支出目標及其與增長模式的關係。他說,他們已將目標從 32 億美元提高到 35 億美元,他們認為這是實現長期增長的正確範圍。
McMullen 最後表示,他們希望在未來利用他們的送貨和取貨網絡。克羅格是美國最大的連鎖超市,2020 財年銷售額為 1324 億美元。該公司在 35 個州經營著近兩打旗幟下的 2,268 家食品店。由於通貨膨脹和 Express Scripts,克羅格預計 2020 年第四季度的銷售額將放緩。首席執行官羅德尼·麥克馬倫 (Rodney McMullen) 解釋說,減速的部分原因只是一年前的通脹循環。首席財務官 Gary Millerchip 補充說,第四季度初期的趨勢與第三季度的出色表現保持一致。影響第四季度銷售的另一個因素是較高的通貨膨脹率,預計這將對國內食品的整體同比增長產生一定影響。
預計 2023 年食品雜貨行業將更具競爭力,消費者面臨壓力,公司爭奪市場份額。 Albertsons 和 Safeway 之間的合併可能會分散人們對這場競爭的注意力,但預計不會持續很長時間。許多消費品零售商將在 2023 年受益於 LIFO 毛利率,這將使在通貨緊縮時期更容易進行價格投資。
克羅格是美國最大的連鎖超市,2020 財年銷售額為 1324 億美元。該公司在 35 個州經營著近兩打旗幟下的 2,268 家食品店。
由於通貨膨脹和 Express Scripts,克羅格預計 2020 年第四季度的銷售額將放緩。首席執行官羅德尼·麥克馬倫 (Rodney McMullen) 解釋說,減速的部分原因只是一年前的通脹循環。首席財務官 Gary Millerchip 補充說,第四季度初期的趨勢與第三季度的出色表現保持一致。影響第四季度銷售的另一個因素是較高的通貨膨脹率,預計這將對國內食品的整體同比增長產生一定影響。
預計 2023 年食品雜貨行業將更具競爭力,消費者面臨壓力,公司爭奪市場份額。 Albertsons 和 Safeway 之間的合併可能會分散人們對這場競爭的注意力,但預計不會持續很長時間。許多消費品零售商將在 2023 年受益於 LIFO 毛利率,這將使在通貨緊縮時期更容易進行價格投資。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Kroger Co. Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Nadia, and I'll be coordinating the call today. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.
早上好,歡迎來到克羅格公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。我叫 Nadia,今天我將負責協調電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,正在記錄此事件。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Rob Quast, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係高級總監 Rob Quast。請繼續。
Robinson C. Quast - Director of IR
Robinson C. Quast - Director of IR
Good morning. Thank you for joining us for Kroger's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. I am joined today by Kroger's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Rodney McMullen; and Chief Financial Officer, Gary Millerchip. Before we begin, I want to remind you that today's discussions will include forward-looking statements. We want to caution you that such statements are predictions, and actual events or results can differ materially. A detailed discussion of the many factors that we believe may have a material effect on our business on an ongoing basis is contained in our SEC filings.
早上好。感謝您加入我們參加 Kroger 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天,克羅格董事長兼首席執行官羅德尼·麥克馬倫 (Rodney McMullen) 加入了我的行列;和首席財務官 Gary Millerchip。在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,今天的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。我們想提醒您,此類陳述是預測,實際事件或結果可能存在重大差異。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細討論了我們認為可能對我們的業務持續產生重大影響的許多因素。
The Kroger Company assumes no obligation to update that information.
克羅格公司不承擔更新該信息的義務。
After our prepared remarks, we look forward to taking your questions. In order to cover a broad range of topics from as many of you as we can, we ask that you please limit yourself to 1 question and 1 follow-up question, if necessary.
在我們準備好的發言之後,我們期待著回答您的問題。為了盡可能多地涵蓋你們中廣泛的主題,我們要求你們將自己限制在 1 個問題和 1 個後續問題(如有必要)。
I will now turn the call over to Rodney.
我現在將把電話轉給羅德尼。
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We're pleased to announce another quarter of strong results. powered by our strategy of leading with fresh and accelerating with digital. Our associates continue to create a seamless customer experience, delivering fresh and affordable food anytime, anywhere with zero compromise on quality, selection or convenience.
謝謝你,羅布。大家早上好,感謝您今天加入我們。我們很高興地宣布又一個季度的強勁業績。由我們以新鮮引領和數字加速的戰略為動力。我們的員工繼續創造無縫的客戶體驗,隨時隨地提供新鮮且價格合理的食品,同時在質量、選擇或便利性方面做到零妥協。
Our associates' incredible dedication means we have momentum entering the fourth quarter and we are continuing to consistently deliver a full fresh and friendly experience for our customers throughout the busy holiday season. It is clear that inflation remains top of mind for our customers and for our company. We are laser focused on helping our customers by providing fresh and affordable food.
我們員工令人難以置信的奉獻精神意味著我們在進入第四季度時勢頭強勁,並且在整個繁忙的假期期間,我們將繼續始終如一地為我們的客戶提供全新而友好的體驗。很明顯,通貨膨脹仍然是我們客戶和我們公司最關心的問題。我們專注於通過提供新鮮且價格合理的食品來幫助我們的客戶。
Research shows cooking at home is still 3x to 4x less expensive than dining out. And we are seeing more customers engage with our brands as a way to stretch their food budgets without compromising on quality. During the quarter, we continue to see many of the same shopping trends we observed throughout the year.
研究表明,在家做飯的費用仍然比外出就餐便宜 3 到 4 倍。我們看到越來越多的顧客與我們的品牌互動,以此作為在不影響質量的情況下擴大食品預算的一種方式。在本季度,我們繼續看到許多與全年觀察到的相同的購物趨勢。
In addition to higher engagement with our brands products, Customers are downloading and redeeming digital coupons and continuing to showcase their cooking at home skills learned during the pandemic. Our breadth of choices, quality of fresh products and the value of our personalized promotions are helping customers navigate the current environment, and our customer-focused approach is working.
除了對我們品牌產品的更高參與度外,客戶還下載和兌換數字優惠券,並繼續展示他們在大流行期間學到的家庭烹飪技能。我們的選擇範圍、新鮮產品的質量和個性化促銷的價值正在幫助客戶駕馭當前環境,我們以客戶為中心的方法正在發揮作用。
We continue to see overall household growth and significant loyal household growth, which drives a meaningful portion of our sales volume. We are proud to serve as America's grocer, especially during the holiday season. As friends and family come together, we look forward to providing our customers the perfect ingredients to create cherished memories. At a time when 48% of customers have told us they plan to cut back on their Thanksgiving celebration due to inflation. We took action and made sure Thanksgiving was enjoyable and memorable for everyone. To do that, we introduced an easy guide for customers to build an affordable meal of our brand's products with all of the Thanksgiving favorites that a family could enjoy for as little as $5 a person. This is just one example of how we create amazing quality at a great price when it matters most to our customers.
我們繼續看到整體家庭增長和忠誠家庭的顯著增長,這推動了我們銷量的很大一部分。我們很自豪能成為美國的雜貨商,尤其是在節日期間。當朋友和家人聚在一起時,我們期待為我們的客戶提供完美的原料,以創造珍貴的回憶。當時有 48% 的顧客告訴我們,由於通貨膨脹,他們計劃減少感恩節慶祝活動。我們採取了行動,確保感恩節對每個人來說都是愉快而難忘的。為此,我們為顧客推出了一份簡單的指南,讓他們用我們品牌的產品製作一頓價格實惠的大餐,其中包含所有感恩節美食,一個家庭每人只需 5 美元即可享用。這只是我們如何在對客戶最重要的時候以實惠的價格創造出令人驚嘆的品質的一個例子。
We empower our customers to create lasting food memories by consistently executing against our go-to-market strategy, focused on Fresh, Our Brands, personalization and our seamless ecosystem. Fresh remains important in today's environment, and we are committed to bringing the freshest products to our customers' tables. Our Fresh for Everyone strategy is grounded in keeping products fresher, longer. Our end-to-end Fresh initiative is transforming these efforts. At the end of quarter 3, we have a total of 1,252 certified stores. At these locations, we see higher fresh sales and identical store sales. With these impressive results, we continue to roll out the initiative nationwide. As part of our end-to-end fresh initiative is our supply chain, where we continue to invest and enhance operations. We are improving productivity and maximizing our fleet by controlling more product movement across our network. Most importantly, we are using our data and science to maximize freshness for our customers.
我們通過始終如一地執行我們的上市戰略,專注於新鮮、我們的品牌、個性化和我們的無縫生態系統,使我們的客戶能夠創造持久的食物記憶。在當今環境中,新鮮仍然很重要,我們致力於將最新鮮的產品帶到客戶的餐桌上。我們的 Fresh for Everyone 戰略立足於讓產品更新鮮、更長久。我們的端到端 Fresh 計劃正在改變這些努力。截至第 3 季度末,我們共有 1,252 家獲得認證的商店。在這些地點,我們看到更高的生鮮銷售額和同店銷售額。有了這些令人印象深刻的成果,我們將繼續在全國范圍內推廣該計劃。作為我們端到端新計劃的一部分是我們的供應鏈,我們將繼續投資並加強運營。我們正在通過控制更多產品在我們網絡中的移動來提高生產力並最大化我們的車隊。最重要的是,我們正在使用我們的數據和科學來最大限度地為我們的客戶提供新鮮度。
Beyond our end-to-end Fresh program, we are bringing more Fresh products to our customers. During the quarter, Home Chef launched new plant-based ready-to-cook meals. They also collaborated with Kroger's in-house dieticians to launch our new simple and nutritious healthy meal kits. Home Chef continues to be an exceptional example of how Kroger's history of mergers help bring new and exciting capabilities to meet our customers' changing needs across the country.
除了端到端的 Fresh 計劃外,我們還為客戶帶來更多 Fresh 產品。本季度,Home Chef 推出了新的植物性即食餐點。他們還與 Kroger 的內部營養師合作推出了我們新的簡單且營養豐富的健康膳食套裝。 Home Chef 仍然是克羅格的合併歷史如何幫助帶來新的和令人興奮的能力以滿足全國客戶不斷變化的需求的傑出例子。
Turning to Our Brands. We delivered another strong quarter in Our Brands with identical sales growth that outpaced overall identical sales. This was led by our Kroger and Private Selection brands. Customers continue to engage with the Our Brands portfolio, which offers high-quality products at affordable prices. Our Brands products are loved by every member of the family, including the pets. This quarter, we saw tremendous growth in our pet food brands as families continue to treat their dogs and their cats. As you know, they're like a member of the family. We continue to expand and diversify Our Brands portfolio at every price point. After launching Smart Way as our opening price point brand last quarter, we introduced several new Smart Way products this quarter and plan to roll out additional products next quarter. These products are meeting the needs of our customers on a budget, and we've already seen 2 million households to purchase Smart Way products.
轉向我們的品牌。我們的品牌又一個強勁的季度實現了相同的銷售額增長,超過了整體相同的銷售額。這是由我們的 Kroger 和 Private Selection 品牌引領的。客戶繼續使用我們的品牌組合,以實惠的價格提供高質量的產品。我們的品牌產品深受每個家庭成員的喜愛,包括寵物。本季度,隨著家庭繼續對待他們的狗和貓,我們的寵物食品品牌出現了巨大增長。如您所知,他們就像家庭成員一樣。我們繼續在每個價位上擴展和多樣化我們的品牌組合。在上個季度推出 Smart Way 作為我們的開價品牌後,我們在本季度推出了幾款新的 Smart Way 產品,併計劃在下個季度推出更多產品。這些產品在預算範圍內滿足了客戶的需求,我們已經看到 200 萬家庭購買了 Smart Way 產品。
In regard to personalization, our customers are looking for opportunities to save on the products they love. Our loyalty programs and personalized promotions allow them to do just that. We continue to use our leading data science capabilities to develop unique customer insights and offer targeted promotions on the products we know they love. This strategy is driving digital engagement with digital coupon downloads, 32% higher than last year. We anticipate these interactions will continue through the holidays with customers expected to realize more than $200 million in savings from our highly personalized digital offers.
在個性化方面,我們的客戶正在尋找機會在他們喜歡的產品上節省開支。我們的忠誠度計劃和個性化促銷活動使他們能夠做到這一點。我們繼續使用我們領先的數據科學能力來開發獨特的客戶洞察力,並針對我們知道他們喜歡的產品提供有針對性的促銷活動。這一策略正在推動數字優惠券下載的數字互動,比去年高出 32%。我們預計這些互動將持續到整個假期,預計客戶將從我們高度個性化的數字產品中節省超過 2 億美元。
Moving on to Seamless. We're improving our Seamless experience that brings our customers fresh products anytime, anywhere with zero compromise on quality, selection or convenience. We saw back-to-back quarters of strong digital growth led by our delivery solutions. This quarter, we introduced app enhancements that make it easier for customers to engage with our savings and promotion. We launched our first in-app flash sales and enabled our customers to clip digital offers directly from their cart.
繼續無縫。我們正在改善我們的無縫體驗,隨時隨地為我們的客戶帶來新鮮的產品,同時在質量、選擇或便利性方面做到零妥協。在我們的交付解決方案的帶動下,我們連續幾個季度實現了強勁的數字增長。本季度,我們推出了應用程序增強功能,使客戶更容易參與我們的儲蓄和促銷活動。我們推出了我們的第一個應用程序內閃購,並使我們的客戶能夠直接從他們的購物車中剪輯數字優惠。
Improving the customer experience is always top of mind for us, and Kroger Pickup now offers 3-hour pickup lead times at all stores in our network, with as little as 1 hour lead time in some areas. We're investing in digital growth initiatives, including expanding our Kroger delivery network in new and existing geographies. We are also growing Boost, our one-of-the-kind membership program. This is the industry's most affordable membership program, and it is foundational to growing our delivery service. We are incredibly pleased with our customer response to Boost as we rolled out the program nationwide earlier this year.
改善客戶體驗始終是我們的首要任務,Kroger Pickup 現在在我們網絡中的所有商店提供 3 小時的提貨交貨時間,在某些地區甚至只有 1 小時的交貨時間。我們正在投資數字增長計劃,包括在新的和現有的地區擴展我們的 Kroger 交付網絡。我們還在發展 Boost,這是我們獨一無二的會員計劃。這是業內最實惠的會員計劃,也是我們發展送貨服務的基礎。我們對客戶對 Boost 的反應感到非常滿意,因為我們在今年早些時候在全國推出了該計劃。
We continue to invest in our associates as part of our long-term strategy. In addition to investing in average hourly rates this quarter, we enhanced the benefits available to our associates. We expanded the eligibility for our 401(k) plan participants to encourage earlier commitments to lifelong savings, and we took steps to continue supporting working parents by increasing family lead time and our company-sponsored benefit plans. We are excited to celebrate amazing associates this quarter, who were recognized for their outstanding work and commitment to our customers. We were the most recognized employer for Progressive Grocer's GenNext honorees, with 28 of our young leaders recognized for driving change and innovation, both within the organizations and communities they serve.
作為我們長期戰略的一部分,我們繼續投資於我們的員工。除了本季度的平均小時費率投資外,我們還提高了員工可獲得的福利。我們擴大了 401(k) 計劃參與者的資格,以鼓勵儘早做出終身儲蓄的承諾,並且我們採取措施通過增加家庭準備時間和我們公司贊助的福利計劃來繼續支持在職父母。我們很高興在本季度慶祝出色的員工,他們因出色的工作和對客戶的承諾而受到認可。我們是 Progressive Grocer 的 GenNext 獲獎者最受認可的雇主,我們的 28 位年輕領導者因在他們所服務的組織和社區內推動變革和創新而獲得認可。
Additionally, our KEPASA Hispanic and Latino Associate Resource Group was honored by the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce as the Employee Resource Group of the Year.
此外,我們的 Kepasa 西班牙裔和拉丁裔員工資源組被美國西班牙裔商會評為年度員工資源組。
In summary, we are building momentum as we close out the year. We are excited to surprise and delight our customers this holiday season with high-quality fresh products at affordable prices. allowing customers to serve on the items that matter most.
總而言之,在我們結束這一年時,我們正在建立勢頭。我們很高興能在這個假期以實惠的價格以優質的新鮮產品給我們的客戶帶來驚喜和愉悅。讓客戶服務於最重要的項目。
And with that, I'll turn it over to Gary to cover our financial results. Gary?
有了這個,我會把它交給加里來報導我們的財務結果。加里?
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Thanks, Rodney, and good morning, everyone. Kroger's relentless focus on delivering value for our customers was the foundation of our strong results in quarter 3. As Rodney mentioned earlier, our consistent execution of our go-to-market strategy is resonating the shoppers and driving increased customer loyalty. We were especially pleased with the balance achieved in our results this quarter as we continue to invest in our customers and associates, while also effectively managing costs to achieve solid earnings growth.
謝謝,羅德尼,大家早上好。 Kroger 對為客戶提供價值的不懈關注是我們在第三季度取得強勁業績的基礎。正如羅德尼之前提到的,我們始終如一地執行進入市場的戰略,這引起了購物者的共鳴,並推動了客戶忠誠度的提高。我們對本季度業績取得的平衡感到特別滿意,因為我們繼續投資於我們的客戶和員工,同時有效地管理成本以實現穩健的收益增長。
These results provide yet another proof point of the strength of our value creation model and our ability to operate successfully in different environments.
這些結果再次證明了我們價值創造模型的優勢以及我們在不同環境中成功運營的能力。
I'll now provide additional color on our third quarter results. Adjusted EPS was $0.88 for the quarter, an increase of 13% compared to the same quarter last year. This growth was driven by top line revenue and our disciplined approach to balancing investments with effective cost management.
我現在將為我們的第三季度業績提供更多顏色。本季度調整後每股收益為 0.88 美元,與去年同期相比增長 13%。這一增長是由頂線收入和我們用有效的成本管理平衡投資的嚴格方法推動的。
Identical sales without fuel grew 6.9%. Our Brands continue to resonate deeply with customers as sales grew 10.4%. The outstanding quality and value offered by these exclusive Kroger products is an important differentiator in our go-to-market strategy, and this is especially true during periods of high inflation. As we shared at our Investor Day in March, Our Brands products are margin accretive and represent a key pillar in our strategy to grow profitability while also delivering greater value for customers.
不含燃料的相同銷售額增長了 6.9%。隨著銷售額增長 10.4%,我們的品牌繼續與客戶產生深刻的共鳴。這些克羅格獨家產品所提供的卓越品質和價值是我們進入市場戰略的一個重要差異化因素,在高通脹時期尤其如此。正如我們在 3 月份的投資者日分享的那樣,我們的品牌產品可以增加利潤,是我們提高盈利能力同時為客戶創造更大價值的戰略的關鍵支柱。
Digital sales grew 10% during the quarter with delivery solutions leading the way, up 34% year-over-year. Delivery solutions includes the Kroger delivery network powered by Ocado delivery from our stores via Kroger and third-party platforms and our convenience offering, Kroger Delivery Now. Our industry-leading Net Promoter Scores in Kroger Delivery are driving new customer engagement and best-in-class retention rates.
本季度數字銷售額增長了 10%,交付解決方案處於領先地位,同比增長 34%。交付解決方案包括 Kroger 交付網絡,該網絡由 Ocado 提供支持,通過 Kroger 和第三方平台從我們的商店交付,以及我們的便利產品 Kroger Delivery Now。我們在 Kroger Delivery 中行業領先的淨推薦值正在推動新客戶參與度和一流的保留率。
Gross margin was 21.4% of sales for the quarter. The FIFO gross margin rate, excluding fuel, decreased 5 basis points compared to the same period last year. This result reflected our team's ability to effectively manage higher product cost inflation and shrink through strong sourcing practices while also helping customers manage their budgets and keeping prices competitive.
本季度毛利率為銷售額的 21.4%。不包括燃料的FIFO毛利率較去年同期下降5個基點。這一結果反映了我們團隊通過強大的採購實踐有效管理更高的產品成本膨脹和收縮的能力,同時還幫助客戶管理他們的預算並保持價格競爭力。
During the quarter, we recorded a LIFO charge of $152 million compared to $93 million in the prior year. This was primarily driven by higher product cost inflation in grocery. We still expect to see some moderation in inflation during our fourth quarter as we cycle higher inflation from a year ago.
本季度,我們記錄了 1.52 億美元的 LIFO 費用,而去年同期為 9300 萬美元。這主要是由於雜貨店產品成本上漲所致。我們仍然預計第四季度通脹會有所緩和,因為我們的通脹比一年前更高。
Kroger's operating general and administrative rates decreased 3 basis points, excluding fuel and adjustment items compared to the same period last year. The decrease in OG&A rate was driven by sales leverage and execution of cost-saving initiatives, partially offset by investments in our associates. We continue to identify opportunities to remove cost from our business without affecting the customer experience and are on track to deliver our fifth consecutive year of $1 billion in cost savings.
與去年同期相比,克羅格的運營一般費率和行政費率下降了 3 個基點,不包括燃料和調整項目。 OG&A 率的下降是由銷售槓桿和成本節約計劃的執行推動的,部分被我們對聯營公司的投資所抵消。我們繼續尋找在不影響客戶體驗的情況下降低業務成本的機會,並有望連續第五年實現 10 億美元的成本節約。
Kroger Health had another successful quarter, delivering higher-than-expected sales and profitability despite cycling the impact of higher COVID vaccine revenue from a year ago. We continue to see significant growth opportunities in health care, and our Kroger Health team remains committed to ensuring our customers obtain medically necessary prescriptions.
Kroger Health 又一個成功的季度,儘管受到一年前 COVID 疫苗收入增加的影響,但仍實現了高於預期的銷售額和盈利能力。我們繼續看到醫療保健領域的重大增長機會,我們的 Kroger Health 團隊仍然致力於確保我們的客戶獲得醫療上必要的處方。
Recently, we announced that we are terminating our Express Scripts agreement for commercial customers as of December 31. The Express Scripts contract would have required Kroger to fill our customers' prescriptions below our cost of operation, something we could not accept as we aim to keep our prices low for customers during this inflationary period. We expect this contract termination will reduce sales by about $100 million in Kroger's fiscal fourth quarter, impacting identical sales without fuel for the quarter by approximately 35 basis points. This decision is not expected to have an impact on operating profit or EPS.
最近,我們宣布從 12 月 31 日起終止我們針對商業客戶的 Express Scripts 協議。Express Scripts 合同要求 Kroger 以低於我們運營成本的價格開出客戶的處方,這是我們無法接受的,因為我們的目標是保持在這個通貨膨脹時期,我們對客戶的價格很低。我們預計此次合同終止將使克羅格第四財季的銷售額減少約 1 億美元,使本季度不含燃料的相同銷售額減少約 35 個基點。該決定預計不會對營業利潤或每股收益產生影響。
Included in our results for the quarter is an $85 million pretax charge related to the settlement of all opioid litigation claims with the State of New Mexico. This amount was excluded from our adjusted FIFO operating profit and adjusted EPS results to reflect the unique and nonrecurring nature of the charge. This settlement is not an admission of wrongdoing or liability by Kroger, and we will continue to vigorously defend against other claims and lawsuits related to opioids.
我們本季度的業績中包括與新墨西哥州所有阿片類藥物訴訟索賠相關的 8500 萬美元稅前費用。這筆金額不包括在我們調整後的 FIFO 營業利潤和調整後的每股收益結果中,以反映費用的獨特性和非經常性。本次和解並不是克羅格承認不當行為或承擔責任,我們將繼續積極抗辯與阿片類藥物相關的其他索賠和訴訟。
This settlement is based on a unique set of circumstances and facts related to New Mexico, and Kroger does not believe that the settlement amount or any other terms of our agreement with New Mexico can or should be extrapolated to any other opioid-related cases pending against Kroger. It is our view that this settlement is not a reliable proxy for the outcome of any other cases or the overall level of Kroger's exposure.
該和解基於與新墨西哥州相關的一系列獨特情況和事實,克羅格認為和解金額或我們與新墨西哥州達成的協議的任何其他條款不能或不應推論到任何其他未決的阿片類藥物相關案件克羅格。我們認為,這一和解不能可靠地代表任何其他案件的結果或 Kroger 的整體風險敞口水平。
Currently, Kroger has 2 active matters pending in West Virginia and Texas scheduled for trial in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Kroger continues to believe that the claims are without merit, and that it has strong defenses to these claims. Kroger is also differently situated from many of the other defendants in these cases. Our pharmacy operations have a much smaller footprint, both in terms of the size of the business, and market share with respect to opioids, and we are proud of the outstanding work performed by our associates in delivering critical care and services to our pharmacy customers.
目前,克羅格在西弗吉尼亞州和德克薩斯州有 2 項懸而未決的案件,計劃分別於 2023 年和 2024 年進行審判。克羅格仍然認為這些索賠沒有根據,並且對這些索賠有強有力的辯護。在這些案件中,克羅格與許多其他被告的處境也不同。我們的藥房業務在業務規模和阿片類藥物市場份額方面的足跡要小得多,我們為我們的員工在為我們的藥房客戶提供重症監護和服務方面所做的出色工作感到自豪。
Turning now to alternative profit businesses, which are a fast-growing and key part of our value creation model. The traffic and data generated by our supermarket business continues to create a flywheel effect for alternative profits and growth this quarter was again led by retail media. CPG brands are finding significant value in our unique ability to build custom audiences that draw on our data to deliver precisely measured return on investment.
現在轉向替代利潤業務,這是我們價值創造模型中快速增長的關鍵部分。我們的超市業務產生的流量和數據繼續為替代利潤創造飛輪效應,本季度的增長再次由零售媒體引領。 CPG 品牌在我們建立自定義受眾的獨特能力中發現了重要價值,這些受眾利用我們的數據來提供精確衡量的投資回報。
Last month, KPM added a new channel to its suite of retail media solutions, welcoming Snapchat into the portfolio. Advertisers are now able to use Kroger's proprietary capabilities to optimize Snapchat's immersive ad formats. We are constantly innovating to expand our reach, and KPM recently increased its programmatic advertising marketplace capabilities to include video and one of the fastest-growing digital media sectors, connected TV. These new frontiers will provide exciting future growth opportunities for KPN.
上個月,KPM 為其零售媒體解決方案套件添加了一個新渠道,歡迎 Snapchat 加入其產品組合。廣告商現在可以使用 Kroger 的專有功能來優化 Snapchat 的沉浸式廣告格式。我們不斷創新以擴大我們的影響力,KPM 最近增強了其程序化廣告市場功能,將視頻和增長最快的數字媒體領域之一的聯網電視包括在內。這些新領域將為 KPN 提供令人興奮的未來增長機會。
Fuel is an important part of our overall value proposition, and our fuel rewards program remains a key differentiator to help customers stretch their dollars during a period of high inflation. Fuel rewards engagement remained high during the third quarter and led to gallon sales, which outpaced the market. The average retail fuel price was $3.84 this quarter, versus $3.24 in the same quarter last year. And our cents per gallon fuel margin was $0.50 compared to $0.42 in the same quarter in 2021.
燃料是我們整體價值主張的重要組成部分,而我們的燃料獎勵計劃仍然是幫助客戶在高通脹時期延長開支的關鍵差異化因素。第三季度,燃料獎勵參與度仍然很高,導致加侖銷量超過市場。本季度平均零售燃油價格為 3.84 美元,而去年同期為 3.24 美元。我們的每加侖燃油利潤率為 0.50 美元,而 2021 年同期為 0.42 美元。
The results we reported today would not have been possible without our incredible associates who continue to do an outstanding job executing our strategy and delivering a full, fresh and friendly experience for our customers. We have a long track record of investing in our associates and are committed to continuing these investments to ensure Kroger remains an employer of choice. Building on $1.2 billion of incremental investments since 2018 we have raised our average hourly rates by over 5% so far in 2022.
如果沒有我們令人難以置信的員工繼續出色地執行我們的戰略並為我們的客戶提供完整、新鮮和友好的體驗,我們今天報告的結果是不可能的。我們在對我們的員工進行投資方面有著長期的記錄,並致力於繼續這些投資,以確保 Kroger 仍然是首選雇主。基於自 2018 年以來 12 億美元的增量投資,到 2022 年為止,我們已將平均時薪提高了 5% 以上。
During the third quarter, we ratified new labor agreements with the UFCW for associates in Columbus, Las Vegas, Chicago, Fort Wayne and pharmacists in Southern California, covering more than 28,000 associates. During the fourth quarter, we have also ratified new labor agreements for associates in Toledo and Nashville, as well as the Teamsters master agreement.
在第三季度,我們批准了與 UFCW 的新勞動協議,涉及哥倫布、拉斯維加斯、芝加哥、韋恩堡的員工和南加州的藥劑師,涵蓋 28,000 多名員工。在第四季度,我們還批准了托萊多和納什維爾員工的新勞動協議,以及 Teamsters 主協議。
Turning now to cash flow and liquidity. During the quarter, cash flow was affected by increased inventory balances. This was predominantly due to higher product cost inflation, particularly in grocery, in stocks improving to pre-pandemic levels and forward buying of inventory in pharmacy. We are comfortable that our current level and mix of inventory is appropriate to support our future sales expectations and would expect to see an improvement in working capital during the fourth quarter.
現在轉向現金流和流動性。本季度,現金流量受到存貨餘額增加的影響。這主要是由於產品成本通脹上升,尤其是在食品雜貨中,庫存提高到大流行前的水平,以及藥店庫存的遠期購買。我們很高興我們目前的庫存水平和組合適合支持我們未來的銷售預期,並且預計第四季度的營運資金會有所改善。
Regarding capital expenditures, we are committed to investing in the business to support our go-to-market strategy and continue to see many opportunities to drive future growth. As shared last quarter, various initiatives have been delayed due to supply constraints, and we now expect capital expenditures to be in the range of $3.2 billion to $3.4 billion in 2022.
關於資本支出,我們致力於投資業務以支持我們的上市戰略,並繼續看到許多推動未來增長的機會。正如上個季度所分享的那樣,由於供應限制,各種舉措被推遲,我們現在預計 2022 年的資本支出將在 32 億美元至 34 億美元之間。
The net effect of higher inventory and lower capital expenditures for the year is that we continue to expect to generate free cash flow of $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion in 2022.
今年庫存增加和資本支出減少的淨影響是,我們繼續預計 2022 年將產生 23 億至 25 億美元的自由現金流。
In closing, I'd like to share additional color on our outlook for the remainder of the year. The Kroger team's consistent execution of our go-to-market strategy continues to build momentum in our business and gives us the confidence to again raise our full year guidance. We now expect full year identical sales without fuel of 5.1% to 5.3%, adjusted FIFO operating profit of $4.8 billion to $4.9 billion and adjusted net earnings per diluted share of $4.05 to $4.15, representing growth of 10% to 13% over 2021.
最後,我想分享一下我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。克羅格團隊始終如一地執行我們的上市戰略,繼續為我們的業務創造動力,並讓我們有信心再次提高全年業績指引。我們現在預計,不含燃料的全年相同銷售額為 5.1% 至 5.3%,調整後的 FIFO 營業利潤為 48 億美元至 49 億美元,調整後的攤薄後每股淨收益為 4.05 美元至 4.15 美元,比 2021 年增長 10% 至 13%。
This guidance assumes a LIFO charge of approximately $500 million for the full year, which represents a $300 million headwind over the 2021 LIFO charge. Our third quarter and year-to-date results highlight the strength of Kroger's value creation model, which has proven to be resilient in different operating environments. Looking ahead, we remain confident in our ability to deliver attractive and sustainable total shareholder returns, and we look forward to sharing detailed 2023 guidance during our fourth quarter earnings call in March.
本指南假設全年後進先出法費用約為 5 億美元,這比 2021 年後進先出法費用高出 3 億美元。我們的第三季度和年初至今的業績凸顯了 Kroger 價值創造模式的優勢,該模式已被證明在不同的運營環境中具有彈性。展望未來,我們仍然相信我們有能力提供有吸引力和可持續的股東總回報,我們期待在 3 月份的第四季度財報電話會議上分享詳細的 2023 年指引。
And now I'll turn it back to Rodney.
現在我會把它轉回羅德尼。
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Thanks, Gary. The results we've shared with you today are a testament to our business model strength and agility to support our customers in all economic environments. This is made possible because of the hard work and dedication of our incredible associates. Before we open the floor to your questions, let me provide a brief update on our pending merger with Albertsons. As you may know, I had the opportunity and Vivek did as well to testify before the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on antitrust, competition policy and consumer rights this week. I shared with the senators that our merger will lower prices for customers starting day 1, continued investments in our associates and stores and customer experience and do even more in our communities than either company can do alone. We believe this merger will allow us to fulfill these commitments to our customers, our associates and our communities well into the future.
謝謝,加里。我們今天與您分享的結果證明了我們在所有經濟環境中為客戶提供支持的商業模式實力和敏捷性。由於我們令人難以置信的員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神,這成為可能。在我們開始回答您的問題之前,讓我簡要介紹一下我們與 Albertsons 即將進行的合併的最新情況。如您所知,本週我有機會和 Vivek 一起在參議院司法小組委員會就反壟斷、競爭政策和消費者權益問題作證。我與參議員們分享,我們的合併將從第一天開始為客戶降低價格,繼續投資於我們的員工和商店以及客戶體驗,並在我們的社區中做的事情比任何一家公司單獨做的都多。我們相信,此次合併將使我們能夠在未來很長一段時間內履行對客戶、員工和社區的這些承諾。
We are making early progress on our integration planning as expected and we continue to engage with all of our stakeholders and regulators. We are advancing our road map to close the transaction in early 2024. We look forward to working with the regulators as they review the transaction and do not have a substantial update at this time. We would ask that you focus your questions on our quarterly performance and our progress on our strategy.
我們正按預期在整合規劃方面取得早期進展,我們將繼續與所有利益相關者和監管機構進行接觸。我們正在推進我們的路線圖,以在 2024 年初完成交易。我們期待與監管機構合作,因為他們正在審查交易,目前沒有實質性更新。我們會要求您將問題集中在我們的季度業績和我們的戰略進展上。
With that, Gary and I look forward to taking your questions.
有了這個,加里和我期待著回答你的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And our first question today go to Michael Montani of Evercore ISI.
(操作員說明)我們今天的第一個問題是 Evercore ISI 的 Michael Montani。
Michael David Montani - MD
Michael David Montani - MD
Just wanted to follow up on 2 fronts. One was into the fourth quarter guide, it appears that ID sales could be up around 4%. I just wanted to understand the deceleration there. Was that predominantly inflation and/or the Express Scripts? Or is there anything else to note? Can you share any start to the quarter information? And then I had a follow-up.
只想在兩個方面跟進。一個是進入第四季度指南,似乎 ID 銷售額可能增長 4% 左右。我只是想了解那裡的減速。那主要是通貨膨脹和/或 Express Scripts 嗎?或者還有什麼需要注意的嗎?您可以分享本季度開始的任何信息嗎?然後我進行了跟進。
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Yes. I'll start and let Gary finish it. Part of it is just cycling inflation from a year ago. We are beginning to now cycle the higher inflation a year ago. Gary, with that, I'll let you get into a little bit more asset specific.
是的。我會開始,讓加里完成它。部分原因只是一年前的循環通貨膨脹。我們現在開始循環一年前的高通脹。加里,有了這個,我會讓你更深入地了解資產。
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Thanks, Rodney. And maybe just to confirm, so the trend in the early part of the fourth quarter has continued consistent with how we're performing in the fourth quarter -- I'm sorry, is continued consistent with outperformance in the third quarter. Michael, as to one part of your question there.
謝謝,羅德尼。也許只是為了確認,所以第四季度初期的趨勢與我們在第四季度的表現繼續保持一致——對不起,與第三季度的表現保持一致。邁克爾,關於你問題的一部分。
I think the other piece is, Michael, yes, I think you captured them well is, as Rodney mentioned, we do believe this recycle higher inflation in the final quarter of 2021. We expect that to have some impact on the overall year-over-year growth in food at home during the fourth quarter. And obviously, we'll all see how that plays out.
我認為另一點是,邁克爾,是的,我認為你很好地抓住了他們,正如羅德尼提到的那樣,我們確實相信這種循環會在 2021 年最後一個季度導致更高的通脹。我們預計這將對全年的整體產生一些影響第四季度家庭食品的同比增長。顯然,我們都會看到結果如何。
And then secondly, we have factored in the impact of the ESI, the Express Scripts contract termination as well for January. So overall, I think if you kind of take our full year guidance, we'd be guiding between 4% and 5% IDs for the final quarter of the year.
其次,我們已經考慮了 ESI、Express Scripts 合同終止以及 1 月份的影響。所以總的來說,我認為如果你接受我們的全年指導,我們將在今年最後一個季度指導 4% 到 5% 的 ID。
Michael David Montani - MD
Michael David Montani - MD
Got it. And then just a follow-up on the margin implications. It looks like those could be flat to down slightly in the fourth quarter. So I just want to understand how do you see the competitive environment evolving? And then any cost initiatives that you could share with us there?
知道了。然後只是對保證金影響的跟進。看起來這些在第四季度可能持平或略有下降。所以我只想了解您如何看待競爭環境的演變?然後您可以在那裡與我們分享任何成本計劃嗎?
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Relative to the competitive environment, we continue to see it pretty similar to how it's been throughout the year. all retailers are doing everything they can to minimize the impact on inflation to customers the best you can do. And we obviously would use our personalized and promotions that are directly focused on individual households because of things we know they love to try to help people stretch their budget. We're also, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, seeing customers continuing to move to our brands. And in the past, what we find is when customers move to Our Brands, that's very, very sticky because the high quality of the product and the satisfaction there. So what we find is even when things are getting normalized, Our Brands come out of that at a higher penetration level than going in, which is long term good for our business as well. With that, Gary, I'll let you get into.
相對於競爭環境,我們繼續看到它與全年的情況非常相似。所有零售商都在竭盡所能,盡最大努力將通貨膨脹對客戶的影響降到最低。而且我們顯然會使用直接針對個別家庭的個性化和促銷活動,因為我們知道他們喜歡嘗試幫助人們擴大預算。正如我在準備好的評論中提到的,我們也看到客戶繼續轉向我們的品牌。在過去,我們發現當客戶轉向我們的品牌時,這種粘性非常非常大,因為產品質量高,滿意度高。因此,我們發現即使事情變得正常化,我們的品牌也比進入時的滲透率更高,這對我們的業務也有長期好處。有了這個,加里,我會讓你進入。
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Yes. Thanks, Rodney. Just a couple of bits of extra color, Michael, on the fourth quarter for you. As you probably gathered from the guidance, it would be a lowest quarter for year-over-year growth in what we shared for EPS. I think a few things to bear in mind there. First of all, we'll be cycling the strongest quarter from last year. Last year's EPS growth in Q4 '21 was the highest growth that we had during the year. So we're cycling higher growth from prior year. We'd assume fuel margins will be flat during the fourth quarter. So no real headwind or tailwind there, where, as you know, fuel has been a tailwind for us in the last couple of quarters.
是的。謝謝,羅德尼。邁克爾,在第四節為您提供一些額外的顏色。正如您可能從指導中了解到的那樣,這將是我們分享的 EPS 同比增長最低的一個季度。我認為有幾件事要牢記在那裡。首先,我們將回顧去年最強勁的季度。去年第四季度 21 年的每股收益增長是我們在這一年中的最高增長。因此,我們正在循環比前一年更高的增長。我們假設第四季度燃料利潤率將持平。所以那裡沒有真正的逆風或順風,正如你所知,在過去幾個季度裡,燃料一直是我們的順風。
And of course, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, year-over-year, LIFO will be around $100 million headwind in the fourth quarter of EPS because you may recall again that LIFO was only $20 million last fourth quarter. when we finalize the calculations. So that would be factors to bear in mind when you think about our EPS guidance. The only other thing I might mention is that you've heard me talk about on this call in previous quarters that when you look at our rolling 4 quarter sort of gross margin investment, somewhere between 10 and 20 basis points and OG&A leverage of 10, 20 basis points similarly to keep the business in balance. I would say that because we're cycling Q4 last year gross margin was relatively flat, and OG&A was relatively flat. So I would say you should probably expect our gross margin investment will be a little bit north of the 10 to 20 basis points in Q4, but our OG&A leverage should also be north of that 10 to 20 basis points as well.
當然,正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,與去年同期相比,後進先出法在第四季度的每股收益將面臨約 1 億美元的逆風,因為你可能會再次回想起上個第四季度後進先出法只有 2000 萬美元。當我們完成計算時。因此,當您考慮我們的 EPS 指南時,要牢記這些因素。我唯一可能提到的另一件事是,你聽我在前幾個季度的電話會議上談到,當你查看我們滾動的第 4 季度毛利率投資時,大約在 10 到 20 個基點之間,OG&A 槓桿為 10, 20 個基點類似地保持業務平衡。我會這麼說,因為我們去年第四季度的毛利率相對持平,而 OG&A 也相對持平。所以我想說你可能應該預計我們的毛利率投資將在第四季度略高於 10 到 20 個基點,但我們的 OG&A 槓桿率也應該高於 10 到 20 個基點。
Operator
Operator
And the next question goes to Chuck Cerankosky of Northcoast Research.
下一個問題交給 Northcoast Research 的 Chuck Cerankosky。
Charles Edward Cerankosky - MD of Research, Equity Research Analyst & Principal
Charles Edward Cerankosky - MD of Research, Equity Research Analyst & Principal
Nice quarter. If you could talk a little bit about which categories did worse than inflation in terms of unit growth in which we're stronger on managing a lot of that was in the general merchandise. And also, Gary, could you comment on why identical sales growth, ex fuel was better than total sales growth ex-fuel?
不錯的季度。如果你能談談哪些類別在單位增長方面比通貨膨脹更糟糕,我們在管理其中大部分是在一般商品方面更強大。另外,加里,你能否評論一下為什麼相同的銷售增長(不含燃料)優於總銷售增長(不含燃料)?
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Yes. In terms of the categories, the one you identified definitely would be the weaker category in terms of general merchandise. And that would be true at the Fred Meyer division, it would also be true across the rest of the organization as well. We continue to do well in those categories relative to the market. Our teams have done a great job of making sure they've been managing inventories relative to where the expectations themselves.
是的。就品類而言,你確定的肯定是百貨方面較弱的品類。這在 Fred Meyer 部門是正確的,在組織的其他部門也是如此。相對於市場,我們在這些類別中繼續做得很好。我們的團隊在確保他們一直在根據預期本身管理庫存方面做得很好。
The other categories that would be weaker than the total would be categories where we continue to have supply chain disruptions. Gary and I both mentioned, overall supply chain is getting better, but we still have categories like cat food, dog food, baby formula some of those types of cold remedies, some of those areas continue to have some supply chain issues as well. With the identicals, Gary, go on.
其他比總數弱的類別將是我們繼續有供應鏈中斷的類別。加里和我都提到,整體供應鏈正在變得更好,但我們仍然有貓糧、狗糧、嬰兒配方奶粉等類別的感冒藥,其中一些領域也繼續存在一些供應鏈問題。有了相同的東西,加里,繼續。
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Yes. Thanks, Rodney. Thanks for the question, Chuck. Yes, the biggest part of that, in fact, pretty much all of it, Chuck, would be -- you may recall at the start of the year, we shared that we've made the decision to stop dispensing certain drugs in our specialty pharmacy business because it didn't really tie to overall customer loyalty in our broader business, and it isn't profitable business for us. So we made that decision at the start of the year, and we adjust that out of our ID. So it's a like-for-like comparison, but it does create a disconnect between total sales and identical sales.
是的。謝謝,羅德尼。謝謝你的問題,查克。是的,其中最大的部分,事實上,幾乎所有的部分,查克,你可能還記得在今年年初,我們分享了我們已經決定停止分發我們專業的某些藥物藥房業務,因為它與我們更廣泛業務中的整體客戶忠誠度並沒有真正相關,而且對我們來說也不是有利可圖的業務。所以我們在年初做出了這個決定,並根據我們的 ID 進行了調整。所以這是一個同類比較,但它確實在總銷售額和相同銷售額之間造成了脫節。
One of those examples is actually helping gross margin as well as we're making those decisions to make sure we're optimizing the balance of the business.
其中一個例子實際上是在幫助毛利率,我們正在做出這些決定以確保我們正在優化業務平衡。
Operator
Operator
And the next question goes to Ed Kelly of Wells Fargo.
下一個問題交給富國銀行的埃德凱利。
Edward Joseph Kelly - Senior Analyst
Edward Joseph Kelly - Senior Analyst
Gary, I'd like to ask you about the dynamic between the LIFO charge and the FIFO gross margin going forward. There's -- the FIFO gross margin have been good. And this year, there's probably $0.50 a share or more, I guess, in the LIFO charge in terms of the headwind. I mean assuming inflation eases, you get much of that LIFO charge back.
加里,我想問你關於後進先出費用和未來先進先出毛利率之間的動態。有 - FIFO 毛利率一直很好。今年,我猜,就逆風而言,後進先出法的費用可能是每股 0.50 美元或更多。我的意思是假設通貨膨脹有所緩解,你會收回大部分後進先出費用。
Do we just add that back to earnings? Or is there a dynamic to consider when we think about the FIFO gross margin? Presumably, some of this probably still needs to be priced. I'm just kind of curious, is the FIFO gross margin performance that we've seen, can you sustain that when the LIFO charge eases next year?
我們只是把它加回收益中嗎?或者當我們考慮 FIFO 毛利率時是否有動態需要考慮?據推測,其中一些可能仍需要定價。我只是有點好奇,我們看到的 FIFO 毛利率表現,當 LIFO 費用明年減少時,你能維持嗎?
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Yes. Thanks for the question, Ed. I think as you heard as mentioned on the call, we probably won't get into a lot of detail around 2023 guidance because we'd rather put it into context of the full picture for next year. As you might imagine, there'll be a lot of moving parts as we sort of bridge to share that color with you when we get to March next year.
是的。謝謝你的問題,埃德。我認為正如您在電話會議上所聽到的那樣,我們可能不會在 2023 年的指導方針周圍談及很多細節,因為我們寧願將其置於明年的全貌背景中。正如您可能想像的那樣,明年 3 月時,我們會搭建橋樑與您分享這種顏色,因此會有很多活動部件。
I think overall, though, certainly, some of the elements that you talked about are going to be key factors when you think about what will be at play as you think about 2023, if I kind of talk more in general themes. I think overall, I would say we feel good to answer your question about gross margin that we are very focused on -- and I think are proven for our model, but there are levers that we can pull to manage costs and sourcing effectively to improve mix over time with some of the momentum in our brands and the opportunities continue to accelerate fresh performance and innovation.
不過,我認為總的來說,如果我在一般主題上多談一些,當你考慮 2023 年將要發生的事情時,你談到的一些元素肯定會成為關鍵因素。我想總的來說,我想說我們很高興回答你關於我們非常關注的毛利率的問題——我認為我們的模型已經證明了這一點,但我們可以利用一些槓桿來有效地管理成本和採購以改進隨著時間的推移與我們品牌的一些勢頭相結合,機會繼續加速新的表現和創新。
So there are a number of areas when we look at the balancing gross margin that we believe we would expect there to be longer-term stability and our ability to manage that. I think when you look specifically at the moving parts for next year, I think there's going to be a lot of factors that will come into play as you think about next year.
因此,當我們查看平衡毛利率時,有許多領域我們相信我們會期望有長期穩定性和我們管理它的能力。我認為,當你特別關註明年的活動部分時,我認為明年會有很多因素會發揮作用。
You're right in terms of if inflation normalizes and your numbers certainly correct around the $500 million impact this year, which would be a $300 million year-over-year headwind because last year's LIFO was also inflated as inflation started to rise in quarter 4 last year. If you remember, our LIFO charge is calculated at a very specific week of the year, even though we try and estimate it throughout the year.
如果通貨膨脹正常化並且你的數字肯定在今年 5 億美元左右的影響方面是正確的,這將是 3 億美元的同比逆風,因為隨著第四季度通貨膨脹開始上升,去年的 LIFO 也被誇大了去年。如果您還記得的話,我們的後進先出法費用是在一年中非常特定的一周計算的,儘管我們嘗試在全年進行估算。
So we would believe that as we'll get into guidance next year, obviously, when we share our earnings, and we're still sort of forming views around what we think will happen with inflation, but we're probably looking at most of the external views that you are and most of the analysts' reports that we can look at in the USDA, et cetera, would be in that sort of more of that 2.5% to 3-or-so percent inflation for next year. We'll obviously provide more color on what we believe, but that's sort of where most of the data that we see tend to be pointing towards.
所以我們相信,當我們明年進入指導時,很明顯,當我們分享我們的收益時,我們仍然在某種程度上圍繞我們認為通貨膨脹會發生什麼形成觀點,但我們可能正在關注大部分你的外部觀點以及我們在美國農業部等方面可以看到的大多數分析師報告,明年的通貨膨脹率將達到 2.5% 至 3% 左右。顯然,我們會為我們的信念提供更多色彩,但這是我們看到的大多數數據往往指向的地方。
Edward Joseph Kelly - Senior Analyst
Edward Joseph Kelly - Senior Analyst
Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. Fuel margins have been really strong. I mean there's been -- some of your peers in the industry have talked about that moderating next year? I'm just kind of curious as to whether you share that view and how we should be thinking about modeling that going forward?
好的。然後只是快速跟進。燃料利潤率非常高。我的意思是,你的一些業內同行已經討論過明年的緩和?我只是有點好奇你是否同意這種觀點,以及我們應該如何考慮未來的建模?
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Yes. I think again, I'll maybe just broaden it because again, I think it's a little bit dangerous to pick on one element of the model for next year. I do think that fuel margins have had obviously a very good run. And generally, I think margins are improving over time, but there is -- there has been in the last 2 years, some major volatility in shocks in the market. I think it's hard to see those being cycled. So you look at margins earlier in this year, and I think that's likely to be a headwind next year in looking at the fuel profitability.
是的。我再次考慮,我可能會擴大它,因為我認為明年選擇模型的一個元素有點危險。我確實認為燃料利潤率顯然非常好。總的來說,我認為利潤率會隨著時間的推移而提高,但在過去兩年中,市場震盪出現了一些重大波動。我認為很難看到那些被循環。所以你看看今年早些時候的利潤率,我認為這可能是明年查看燃料盈利能力的逆風。
But again, I think you mentioned LIFO, another example for us would be -- as you look at our incentive plan, obviously, we're having a very strong year versus our expectations, having raised our guidance every quarter. So you get to more of a normalized incentive plan next year, assuming the budgets kind of your expected payout.
但同樣,我認為你提到了後進先出法,對我們來說,另一個例子是——當你看我們的激勵計劃時,很明顯,我們今年的表現非常強勁,超出了我們的預期,每個季度都提高了我們的指導。因此,假設預算符合您的預期支出,明年您將獲得更多的標準化激勵計劃。
We continue to take costs out of our business and find new ways to improve leverage in the model. It has been 5 years, as you know, journey for us. We believe supply chain and alternative profits are potential tailwinds next year as we continue to improve efficiency in supply chain and all profit continues to grow.
我們繼續降低業務成本,並尋找新方法來提高模型的槓桿作用。如您所知,我們的旅程已經過去了 5 年。我們認為,隨著我們繼續提高供應鏈效率和所有利潤繼續增長,供應鍊和替代利潤是明年的潛在利好因素。
So I think there's a lot of moving parts. And again, rather than sort of trying to bridge you to how all those play out. I think that's going to be a balance of puts and takes. And obviously, we're looking forward to sharing a lot more color when we get to March next year.
所以我認為有很多活動部件。再一次,而不是試圖讓你了解所有這些是如何發揮作用的。我認為這將是放與取的平衡。顯然,我們期待在明年 3 月時分享更多顏色。
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Yes. I think when you look at Gary's points overall, it's one of the things that's so important about our overall business model because we do have a lot of moving parts, and we've invested a ton of work and effort our whole team has over the last several years to reinvent the business model and make sure the business model can be successful in every economic environment. And to me, Gary's point that he was sharing really highlight that as we look forward.
是的。我認為當你從整體上看加里的觀點時,這是對我們的整體商業模式非常重要的事情之一,因為我們確實有很多活動部件,而且我們整個團隊已經投入了大量的工作和努力持續數年重塑商業模式,並確保商業模式能夠在每一個經濟環境中取得成功。對我來說,加里 (Gary) 分享的觀點確實突出了我們的期待。
Operator
Operator
And the next question goes to Scott Mushkin of R5 Capital.
下一個問題是 R5 Capital 的 Scott Mushkin。
Scott Andrew Mushkin - Founder, Managing Partner, CEO & Director of Research
Scott Andrew Mushkin - Founder, Managing Partner, CEO & Director of Research
So the first thing I wanted to -- so the first thing I wanted to get some answers to a little bit is the market share, you guys market share. It seems to have stabilized, maybe even growing a little bit. Do you agree? And what do you think is leading to that?
所以我想做的第一件事 - 所以我想得到一些答案的第一件事是市場份額,你們的市場份額。它似乎已經穩定下來,甚至可能增長了一點。你同意嗎?你認為是什麼導致了這種情況?
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Yes. If you look at market share, the trends continue to improve, and we feel good about where we are, but we're not satisfied with where we are. We believe the work that we're doing on Fresh is a key part of driving that.
是的。如果你看一下市場份額,趨勢會繼續改善,我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意,但我們對自己所處的位置並不滿意。我們相信我們在 Fresh 上所做的工作是推動這一進程的關鍵部分。
And obviously, just the continued personalization and making sure that we have a customer experience for its household to household type relationship. And then Our Brands always shines when an economic environment gets a little tougher. So it's really those things working together.
顯然,只是持續的個性化,並確保我們擁有家庭對家庭類型關係的客戶體驗。然後,當經濟環境變得更加艱難時,我們的品牌總是大放異彩。所以這真的是這些東西一起工作。
And then our store teams continuing to do a good job of improving on friendliness. And I make that comment based on what customers tell us how we're doing, not just my opinion of how we're doing.
然後我們的商店團隊繼續做好改善友善的工作。我根據客戶告訴我們的情況做出評論,而不僅僅是我對我們的表現的看法。
Scott Andrew Mushkin - Founder, Managing Partner, CEO & Director of Research
Scott Andrew Mushkin - Founder, Managing Partner, CEO & Director of Research
Great. And then my second question is a little bit more short term. I mean we've heard some retailers, not necessarily in the food industry, but some retailers that the consumers behave or kind of changed somewhat abruptly as we work through the fall. I mean, is that something you guys have seen? And if yes, do you think it's started to leak into the competitive environment?
偉大的。然後我的第二個問題是更短期的。我的意思是,我們聽說過一些零售商,不一定是食品行業的零售商,但有些零售商表示,在我們整個秋季工作期間,消費者的行為或某種程度上發生了一些突然的變化。我的意思是,這是你們見過的東西嗎?如果是,您認為它是否開始滲透到競爭環境中?
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Yes. It's a great question, Scott. And when we talk to our customers, they're telling us they're changing. But so far, they're changing on purchases other than food. So it's -- they are still prioritizing food. It gets a little bit back to one of the comments I made. It's still 3x or 4x cheaper to eat at home versus going out to a restaurant and so many more people have learned how to cook.
是的。這是一個很好的問題,斯科特。當我們與客戶交談時,他們告訴我們他們正在改變。但到目前為止,他們正在改變購買食物以外的東西。所以它 - 他們仍然優先考慮食物。它有點回到我發表的評論之一。在家吃飯比去餐館吃飯便宜 3 倍或 4 倍,而且越來越多的人學會瞭如何做飯。
So if you look at the behavior changes other than the movement to our brands and being much more aggressive on downloading digital coupons and engaging with some of our promotional offers. That's really the only behavior we've seen in our business outside of the comment I made earlier on our general business, but that's a much smaller part of our business than many of our competitors.
因此,如果您查看行為變化,而不是轉向我們的品牌,並且更加積極地下載數字優惠券並參與我們的一些促銷活動。除了我之前對我們的一般業務所做的評論之外,這確實是我們在我們的業務中看到的唯一行為,但與我們的許多競爭對手相比,這在我們的業務中所佔的比例要小得多。
Scott Andrew Mushkin - Founder, Managing Partner, CEO & Director of Research
Scott Andrew Mushkin - Founder, Managing Partner, CEO & Director of Research
And the competitive environment, has it changed?
而競爭環境,是否發生了變化?
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
No. It's all -- as you know, it's any place you look across the country, you'll see it in different stages. And -- but overall, what we see is pretty similar to what -- how it's been.
不,這就是一切——正如你所知,它是你在全國任何地方看到的,你會在不同的階段看到它。而且——但總的來說,我們所看到的與——過去的情況非常相似。
Operator
Operator
And the next question goes to John Heinbockel of Guggenheim Partners.
下一個問題是 Guggenheim Partners 的 John Heinbockel。
John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst
John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst
So Rodney, I want to start with a big picture here. When do you guys think about -- because you've got the data, if you think about growth in households, right? So if you're going to comp, let's say, I don't know, 3% or 4% longer term, household growth would be what of that and comp growth with comp households would be what? How do you think about that? And then when you -- is there any way for you to dive into your penetration, right, with your deciles and where the biggest opportunity is?
所以羅德尼,我想從這裡的大局開始。你們什麼時候考慮——因為你們有數據,如果你們考慮家庭的增長,對嗎?因此,如果你要比較,比方說,我不知道,3% 或 4% 的長期增長,家庭增長會是什麼,而與家庭的比較增長會是什麼?你怎麼看?然後當你 - 有什麼方法可以讓你深入了解你的滲透率,正確的,你的十分之一以及最大的機會在哪裡?
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
I will start and then Gary, please add any color you want. But if you look long term, we always build our business model around 1% to 2% inflation. And if you -- as you know, any given year will be different than that. But longer term, we've always felt that, that's kind of where fundamental inflation will be. Obviously, over the last couple of years, it's been completely different than that.
我先開始,然後加里,請添加您想要的任何顏色。但如果你放眼長遠,我們總是圍繞 1% 到 2% 的通脹建立我們的商業模式。如果你——如你所知,任何給定的年份都會與那不同。但從長遠來看,我們一直認為,這就是基本通脹的地方。顯然,在過去的幾年裡,它已經完全不同了。
As I shared in my prepared remarks, our oil household growth was very strong this quarter, and it's been moving in the right direction. When customers first become a loyal household, what we find is, over time, we get a higher share of that household growth. And we really are seeing that what we define as our seamless experience where a customer can engage with us where we deliver, where they pick up in store and shop in store, it's that combination together that earns us the right.
正如我在準備好的發言中分享的那樣,本季度我們的石油家庭增長非常強勁,而且一直在朝著正確的方向發展。當客戶最初成為忠誠的家庭時,我們發現,隨著時間的推移,我們在家庭增長中所佔的份額更高。我們確實看到了我們定義的無縫體驗,客戶可以在我們送貨的地方與我們互動,他們在店裡提貨和在店裡購物,正是這種結合使我們贏得了權利。
So as our loyal household grows, we get a higher share and that should be a tailwind to our identical sales growth over time. And that was the reason that we talked about it, and it's something, internally, we spend a lot of energy on it. And I know, Gary, is there any other color that you think would be helpful for people to understand.
因此,隨著我們忠實家庭的增長,我們獲得了更高的份額,隨著時間的推移,這應該對我們相同的銷售增長起到推動作用。這就是我們談論它的原因,在內部,我們為此花費了大量精力。我知道,加里,你認為還有其他顏色有助於人們理解嗎?
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
I think you covered it well, Rodney. I guess the only couple of extra points, John, I would maybe add, I do think, as you know, our core strategy is to grow existing loyal customers and what was really pleasing in the quarter as we saw 2.5% growth in loyal customers. So we're seeing customers move through the loyalty curve, and that's always been carry the strategy to really deeply reward customers and grow that relationship.
我認為你講得很好,羅德尼。我想唯一的兩點額外的點,約翰,我可能會補充一點,我確實認為,如你所知,我們的核心戰略是增加現有的忠誠客戶,而本季度真正令人高興的是,我們看到忠誠客戶增長了 2.5% .因此,我們看到客戶在忠誠度曲線上移動,而這一直是真正深入獎勵客戶並發展這種關係的戰略。
I think what we're also seeing though is that as Rodney mentioned, we're building that Seamless capability with digital, we are starting to now attract a larger number of households too and the investments we're making in digital are creating that capacity to grow households as well.
我認為我們還看到的是,正如羅德尼提到的那樣,我們正在通過數字構建這種無縫的能力,我們現在也開始吸引更多的家庭,我們在數字領域的投資正在創造這種能力也可以增加家庭。
I think the one thing on the loyal house, as I would say, too, is what we saw during the quarter have seen the last couple of quarters is that maybe that more affluent customer that has shopped maybe a larger number of retailers before that's consolidated more of their trips and total basket with Kroger as they may not need to adjust their budget because of inflation, but they feel it's the sensible and responsible thing to do, and they see Kroger as a great place to get the right quality at a great value as well, and we're seeing that consolidation happen.
我認為忠誠之家的一件事,正如我要說的,也是我們在本季度看到的,在過去幾個季度中看到的是,也許更富裕的客戶在合併之前已經購買了更多的零售商他們與克羅格的旅行和總籃子更多,因為他們可能不需要因為通貨膨脹而調整預算,但他們認為這是明智和負責任的事情,他們認為克羅格是一個以高品質獲得正確質量的好地方價值也是如此,我們看到整合正在發生。
John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst
John Edward Heinbockel - Analyst
And just one more quick thing. Just conceptually, I know you don't want to talk about anything beyond this year, but right? You've raised the EBIT guide quite a bit right now you're up in the high 4s. When you look at '22, what was in there, maybe the good guys and the bad guys that kind of work against each other. I'm sort of wondering how sustainable is that new level of profitability? Again granted, the margin is not up as much as the dollars are. How do you think about that in terms of how representative of that performance is and what goes and comes next year off the P&L from this year?
還有一件快事。只是從概念上講,我知道你不想談論今年以後的任何事情,但是對嗎?您已經將 EBIT 指南提高了很多,現在您處於高 4 位。當你看 22 年的時候,裡面有什麼,也許好人和壞人會互相對抗。我有點想知道這種新的盈利水平有多可持續?再次承認,保證金沒有美元上漲那麼多。你如何看待這種表現的代表性以及明年損益表從今年開始發生的變化?
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
John, as you know, we manage our business on dollars. And for us, growing dollars is what creates a sustainable business model long term. And we always view that the better offer that we can be able to afford to give to our customers the more sustainable that is, and the only way we can do that is by managing our costs and continuing to find and identify areas of waste so that we can reduce that and fund that.
約翰,如你所知,我們用金錢來管理我們的業務。對我們來說,不斷增長的美元才能創造長期可持續的商業模式。我們始終認為,我們能夠為客戶提供更好的服務,即更具可持續性,而我們能夠做到這一點的唯一方法是管理我們的成本並繼續尋找和識別浪費領域,以便我們可以減少它並為其提供資金。
Fundamentally, as you look at Kroger, we still would have that same strategy and we'd still expect that over time because what we find is that really connects well with the customers. We -- that allows us the capacity to continue to invest in our associates and support our communities. And when we do those 3 things right, the shareholders benefit.
從根本上說,當你看 Kroger 時,我們仍然會採用相同的策略,並且我們仍然期望隨著時間的推移,因為我們發現它確實與客戶建立了良好的聯繫。我們——這使我們有能力繼續投資於我們的員工並支持我們的社區。當我們正確地做這三件事時,股東就會受益。
So I know broad picture, that's what we would do, the way we look at things. And obviously, with everything we do, we try to make sure we're doing it in a way that's sustainable long periods of time.
所以我知道大局,這就是我們會做的,我們看待事物的方式。顯然,對於我們所做的一切,我們都試圖確保我們以一種可持續的長期方式來做這件事。
Operator
Operator
And the next question goes to Kenneth B. Goldman of JP Morgan Chase.
下一個問題是 JP Morgan Chase 的 Kenneth B. Goldman。
Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst
Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst
It's important to list my little initial (inaudible) I'm just curious, the -- it's the second quarter in a row that you've lowered your CapEx guidance. I understand why you've been clear about that. And as Rob Moskow pointed out last quarter, you're not the only company to feel that pressure. I'm curious though, at what point is it reasonable for us to not be concerned, but sort of be aware of the potential impact on your growth from not being able to expand in a way that you'd like. I'm just curious how it affects anything in the near term, if at all?
重要的是列出我的小首字母(聽不清)我只是好奇,這是連續第二個季度你降低了你的資本支出指導。我明白你為什麼一直清楚這一點。正如 Rob Moskow 上個季度指出的那樣,您並不是唯一感受到這種壓力的公司。不過,我很好奇,在什麼時候我們不擔心是合理的,但要意識到無法以您喜歡的方式擴展對您的增長的潛在影響。我只是好奇它在短期內會如何影響任何事情,如果有的話?
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Yes. Thanks, Ken. For us, I don't think it's really something that we're concerned about. We obviously did have very ambitious plans for CapEx this year, playing some catch-up from last year. And we still believe the projects that we have on the horizon are going to be generating significant value for the company in the future and support our growth plans.
是的。謝謝,肯。對於我們來說,我認為這不是我們真正關心的事情。顯然,我們今年確實有非常雄心勃勃的資本支出計劃,與去年相比有所追趕。我們仍然相信,我們即將開展的項目將在未來為公司創造巨大價值,並支持我們的增長計劃。
But when we looked at the expectations for the rest of the year, there are a number of large projects, whether it's in supply chain or some of the stores, just where it's just taking longer to get them completed or there are some costs where it just makes sense to pause for a period of time and reintroduce when we believe that those costs will be more rational.
但是當我們查看今年剩餘時間的預期時,有許多大型項目,無論是在供應鏈中還是在一些商店中,只是需要更長的時間才能完成,或者需要一些成本當我們認為這些成本將更加合理時,暫停一段時間並重新引入是有意義的。
So from our perspective, we don't look at it as having a major impact on our growth model. As you know, we kind of historically were at sort of that $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion of CapEx spend a year. We've moved it up to $3.5 billion, being our sort of target range. And I would still say that's probably directionally where we'd want to be long term, to be pushing to the top end of our TSR model.
因此,從我們的角度來看,我們認為它不會對我們的增長模式產生重大影響。如您所知,從歷史上看,我們每年的資本支出支出約為 32 億至 33 億美元。我們已將其提高到 35 億美元,這是我們的目標範圍。而且我仍然會說,這可能是我們希望長期存在的方向,以推動我們的 TSR 模型的頂端。
So we do believe it's important to be investing in the business, and we can still see plenty of opportunities to support that growth, but we just thought it was based on how long it's taking with certain things to get projects completed with supply availability that we think it's going to be a -- some of those projects will now blend into 2023, but we don't have a concern today about it impacting our growth algorithm.
因此,我們確實相信對業務進行投資很重要,而且我們仍然可以看到很多機會來支持這種增長,但我們只是認為這是基於某些事情需要多長時間才能完成我們提供的供應可用性的項目認為這將是——其中一些項目現在將融入 2023 年,但我們今天並不擔心它會影響我們的增長算法。
Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst
Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst
Got it. And then Rodney, I very much respect your request for us not to ask about the transaction. I won't ask about it. But I am curious, is there a plan ahead to sort of have give updates to investors on a separate kind of form just because it's obviously such a big part of the story from here. I think people don't want a black hole or a vacuum of news. So I'm just curious what the plan is to kind of update investors on progress? Is it just you'll let us know during each quarter what's new and that's kind of it. And then we won't have any Q&A around that. I'm just trying to get a sense of that kind of news flow from here.
知道了。然後羅德尼,我非常尊重你要求我們不要詢問交易的請求。我不會問的。但我很好奇,是否有計劃提前以一種單獨的形式向投資者提供更新,因為這顯然是這裡故事的重要組成部分。我認為人們不想要黑洞或新聞真空。所以我很好奇計劃是什麼讓投資者了解最新進展?只是你會在每個季度讓我們知道什麼是新的,就是這樣。然後我們不會對此進行任何問答。我只是想從這裡了解一下那種新聞流。
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Yes, it's a great question, Ken. And it's something that we're going to obviously manage in a very transparent way. And we wanted to go ahead and include it in this quarter, just the context of what is new, and that's what we've shared.
是的,這是一個很好的問題,肯。這顯然是我們將以一種非常透明的方式進行管理的事情。我們希望繼續將其包含在本季度中,只是新內容的背景,這就是我們分享的內容。
If there was something material, we would share it between quarters. But in all likelihood in the foreseeable future updates would be on a quarterly basis. But if it was something material -- what we try to do on disclosure is if our roles were reversed, what is it that we think it would be helpful for someone to know, and that's what we always try to do. So -- and obviously, feel free to give us feedback when that doesn't feel right to you because we appreciate the feedback.
如果有什麼實質性的東西,我們會在各季度之間分享。但在可預見的未來,很可能每季度更新一次。但如果它是實質性的——我們在披露時嘗試做的是,如果我們的角色互換,我們認為讓某人知道的是什麼,這就是我們一直嘗試做的事情。所以 - 顯然,當您覺得不合適時,請隨時向我們提供反饋,因為我們感謝您的反饋。
Operator
Operator
And the next question goes to Michael Lasser of UBS.
下一個問題交給瑞銀的 Michael Lasser。
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
Rodney, why wouldn't the grocery sector being more competitive and see more price competition in 2023 given that the consumer is going to be under pressure there's going to be your competitors who are going to want to try and gain some share given the potential distraction from the uncertainty of the merger with Albertsons? Many consumable retailers will have this LIFO gross margin benefit into '23, and there's going to be disinflation where at times, it could be easier to make price investments in an environment of disinflation than it is when there is an inflation.
羅德尼,鑑於消費者將承受壓力,為什麼雜貨行業不會在 2023 年變得更具競爭力並看到更多的價格競爭,鑑於潛在的干擾,你的競爭對手將想要嘗試獲得一些份額與 Albertsons 合併的不確定性?許多消費品零售商將在 23 年獲得這種 LIFO 毛利率收益,並且有時會出現通貨緊縮,在通貨緊縮的環境中進行價格投資可能比通貨膨脹時更容易。
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Yes. It really gets back to overall. I think it's incredibly important to understand that we connect with the customer in multiple ways, and Fresh is a critical component of that. We fundamentally assume over time, the market is going to get more competitive. We've done that for 25 years. We'll continue to do that. And that's the reason why we put so much investment energy on personalizing experiences, supporting our associates in ways -- any way we can, pay, continue in education, even additional support on mental health and especially in today's environment.
是的。它真的回到了整體。我認為了解我們以多種方式與客戶聯繫非常重要,而 Fresh 是其中的關鍵組成部分。我們從根本上假設,隨著時間的推移,市場將變得更具競爭力。我們已經這樣做了 25 年。我們將繼續這樣做。這就是為什麼我們在個性化體驗上投入如此多的精力,以各種方式支持我們的員工——我們可以支付任何方式,繼續接受教育,甚至對心理健康提供額外支持,尤其是在當今的環境中。
And what we have found in every environment by supporting and connecting with the customer from a full fresh and friendly experience and then having good prices and very aggressive promotion and then personalizing the experience, we're able to support the customer.
我們在每個環境中都發現,通過從全新和友好的體驗中支持客戶並與客戶建立聯繫,然後提供優惠的價格和非常積極的促銷,然後個性化體驗,我們能夠為客戶提供支持。
One of the things that also supports gross margin as we continue to expect larger growth in our Fresh departments, which have higher margins in center store. And then when you look at our alternative profit businesses and some of those businesses have margins better than what the center store would be. So for us, it's -- you really have to look at all of those things together and look at those things over time, and we feel really good about the business model that we continue to develop and grow at our company.
其中一個因素也支持毛利率,因為我們繼續預計我們的新鮮部門會有更大的增長,這些部門在中心商店的利潤率更高。然後,當您查看我們的替代利潤業務時,其中一些業務的利潤率高於中心商店。所以對我們來說,它是 - 你真的必須一起看所有這些事情並隨著時間的推移看這些事情,我們對我們在公司繼續發展和發展的商業模式感到非常滿意。
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
Understood. And my follow-up question is on the outlook for inflation. What are you hearing right now from your vendor can be about their desire to raise prices into 2023. Gary, you said previously that there will be -- or some of the prognostications are for 2.5% to 3% food at home inflation next year.
明白了。我的後續問題是關於通貨膨脹的前景。你現在從你的供應商那裡聽到的可能是他們希望在 2023 年之前提高價格。加里,你之前說過會有——或者一些預測明年家庭食品通貨膨脹率將達到 2.5% 到 3%。
If you were to not raise another price from here, how much inflation benefit would Kroger experienced in 2023 just from the wraparound effect of what you've already raised this year? And then when you meant to 2.5% to 3%, would it be another 2.5% to 3% on top of that?
如果你不從這裡提高另一個價格,克羅格在 2023 年僅僅從你今年已經提高的價格的環繞效應中獲得多少通貨膨脹收益?然後當你打算 2.5% 到 3% 時,會不會是另外 2.5% 到 3%?
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Well, I'll make a couple of comments, and Gary, you can think about some of the specifics. If you look at in our fresh departments, clearly, inflation is slowing down in many categories. Chicken would be an example. You're starting to see that in some of the other categories as well. And I always make the comment high inflation solves high inflation because farmers produce more when their margins improve.
好吧,我會發表一些評論,加里,你可以考慮一些細節。如果你看看我們的新部門,很明顯,許多類別的通貨膨脹正在放緩。雞就是一個例子。您也開始在其他一些類別中看到這一點。我總是說高通脹解決了高通脹,因為農民在利潤率提高時生產更多。
If you look at on CPG companies themselves, right now, it's kind of mixed. Some CPG companies are willing -- much willing to have higher prices and give up growth. And what we find is when CPGs do that, our brand is so strong, we really gained share. And that helps the customers budget and it also improves the stickiness and the loyalty of that customer as well. So it's -- what do they always say, all short statements and economics are wrong. And I really think you have to look at all the moving parts. I don't know, Gary, anything else you want to add to Michael's inflation?
如果你看看 CPG 公司本身,現在,它有點複雜。一些 CPG 公司願意——非常願意提高價格並放棄增長。我們發現,當 CPG 這樣做時,我們的品牌非常強大,我們真的獲得了份額。這有助於客戶預算,也可以提高該客戶的粘性和忠誠度。所以它是——他們總是說什麼,所有簡短的陳述和經濟學都是錯誤的。而且我真的認為您必須查看所有活動部件。我不知道,加里,你還有什麼要補充邁克爾的通貨膨脹嗎?
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Yes, I think you covered it well, Rodney. I think Michael, as Rodney mentioned, we're seeing that Fresh is certainly starting to see some change in trajectory on inflation. So I think it is the grocery category that's the most stubborn if you like, in terms of where it's holding in inflation at the moment. And as Rodney said, I think from -- as we look forward from our perspective, if that were to continue without being sort of supported by true cost increases, then that creates an opportunity for us with our brands to improve margin and grow share over time. So I think that's the way we think about it in general.
是的,我認為你講得很好,羅德尼。我認為邁克爾,正如羅德尼提到的那樣,我們看到 Fresh 肯定開始看到通貨膨脹軌蹟的一些變化。所以我認為,如果你願意的話,雜貨類別是最頑固的,就目前它在通脹中所處的位置而言。正如羅德尼所說,我認為 - 從我們的角度來看,如果這種情況在沒有得到真正成本增加的支持的情況下繼續下去,那麼這就會為我們的品牌創造一個機會來提高利潤率並增加份額時間。所以我認為這就是我們總體上思考它的方式。
Operator
Operator
And the next question goes to Kelly Bania of BMO.
下一個問題是 BMO 的 Kelly Bania。
Kelly Ann Bania - Director & Senior Food Retailers Analyst
Kelly Ann Bania - Director & Senior Food Retailers Analyst
Kelly Bania from BMO. Just a couple of simple questions. I guess, as we think about the comp here or the IDs in the back half, can you just help us understand how much inflation drove the upside there versus tonnage or -- you talked quite a bit about your fresh initiative. Is it those stores? Just helping us understand where the upside is coming from?
來自 BMO 的 Kelly Bania。只是幾個簡單的問題。我想,當我們考慮這裡的 comp 或後半部分的 ID 時,您能否幫助我們了解通貨膨脹率相對於噸位的上漲幅度有多大,或者 - 您談到了很多關於您的新舉措。是那些店嗎?只是幫助我們了解上行空間從何而來?
And then on top of that, we often talk on the food service side of the industry about volume and tonnage, I guess, is the way you talk about it relative to 2019. And I'm just curious if you can help us understand where you are in terms of volume or tonnage, however you think about that relative to 2019 levels at this point?
然後最重要的是,我們經常在行業的食品服務方面談論體積和噸位,我想,這是你談論它相對於 2019 年的方式。我只是想知道你是否能幫助我們了解在哪裡你是在數量或噸位方面,但你認為相對於 2019 年的水平在這一點上?
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Gary, I'll let you talk about the -- a little color on the IDs and then on the foodservice after you finish Health. I share some things there.
加里,我會讓你談談——身份證上的一點顏色,然後在你完成健康後在餐飲服務上。我在那里分享一些東西。
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Okay. Great. Kelly, I think overall, we mentioned it in their prepared remarks somewhat as well. We've seen inflation starting to level. It's still obviously at very heightened levels. But if you look at the trend quarter-over-quarter, it really narrowed down to less than 1% increase in inflation in our Q3 versus our Q2.
好的。偉大的。凱利,我認為總的來說,我們也在他們準備好的評論中提到了它。我們已經看到通貨膨脹開始趨於平穩。它顯然仍然處於非常高的水平。但是,如果您按季度查看趨勢,就會發現第三季度的通貨膨脹率與第二季度相比確實下降了不到 1%。
So what we were pleased about was in that context, the continued momentum in our overall ID sales when we look at our Q3 performance versus our Q2, and I think a lot of that ties to some of the prepared remarks that Rodney also shared around household growth that we're seeing and really some of the defying more share of wallet from loyal customers and seeing lower customer growth. So that's the piece that I think we've been the most pleased around.
因此,我們感到高興的是在這種情況下,當我們查看第三季度與第二季度的表現時,我們整體 ID 銷售的持續勢頭,我認為這在很大程度上與羅德尼在家庭中分享的一些準備好的言論有關我們看到的增長實際上是一些挑戰來自忠誠客戶的更多錢包份額並且看到較低的客戶增長。所以這是我認為我們最滿意的部分。
And we continue to perform really well with winning that first large basket with customers. We continue to see strong momentum there. And even as customers have continued to adjust their behavior as they kind of wrestle with inflation and decide how to balance budgets, we've been really pleased with how our overall pinning that first basket has continued to maintain strong momentum.
我們繼續表現出色,贏得了客戶的第一個大籃子。我們繼續看到那裡的強勁勢頭。即使客戶在與通貨膨脹作鬥爭並決定如何平衡預算時繼續調整他們的行為,我們也對我們如何將第一個籃子的整體固定繼續保持強勁勢頭感到非常滿意。
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Yes. On foodservice, volume would actually be above where we would have been in 2019. For us, when we look at foodservice or food -- we are always -- I never know quite what to call it other than it's a great meal, easy to cook, easy to heat up, easy to assemble. It was the reason why strategically we merged with Home Chef because we thought Home Chef on its own had great trends and could continue to grow.
是的。在餐飲服務方面,銷量實際上會高於我們在 2019 年的水平。對我們來說,當我們關注餐飲服務或食物時——我們總是——我不知道該怎麼稱呼它,除了它是一頓美餐,容易烹飪,易於加熱,易於組裝。這就是我們在戰略上與 Home Chef 合併的原因,因為我們認為 Home Chef 本身俱有很大的趨勢並且可以繼續增長。
We also felt like their capabilities we could leverage back into Kroger to further improve our mill pit and a great restaurant quality meals would be an example. If you look at sushi, we're the largest sushi restaurant in the United States as an example. Obviously, we partner with a lot of third parties and local entrepreneurs on that, sandwiches and all those things.
我們還覺得我們可以將他們的能力重新利用到克羅格,以進一步改善我們的磨坊,而一流的餐廳品質餐點就是一個例子。如果您看一下壽司,例如我們是美國最大的壽司店。顯然,我們與許多第三方和當地企業家合作,三明治和所有這些東西。
So we see food service as an important component of our growth, not so much relative to 2023. But as you start looking out at, say, 2025 and beyond, and being -- having an amazing quality meal that's easy and leveraging our delivery network or pickup network is an important part of the growth as you look longer term.
因此,我們將餐飲服務視為我們增長的重要組成部分,而不是相對於 2023 年而言。但是當你開始著眼於 2025 年及以後,並成為 - 享用美味的優質餐點,輕鬆並利用我們的配送網絡從長遠來看,皮卡網絡是增長的重要組成部分。
Operator
Operator
Next question is Rupesh Parikh of Oppenheimer.
下一個問題是奧本海默的 Rupesh Parikh。
Rupesh Dhinoj Parikh - MD & Senior Analyst
Rupesh Dhinoj Parikh - MD & Senior Analyst
I just had one question just on OG&A leverage. So this quarter, there was minimal leverage on a very strong comp, and that appears to be driven by wage pressures. So as you look forward to next year, just any insight in terms of how you guys are thinking about wage crushers at this juncture and whether you think the OG&A leverage point could be lower?
我只有一個關於 OG&A 槓桿的問題。因此,本季度,一個非常強大的公司的槓桿作用很小,這似乎是由工資壓力驅動的。因此,當你期待明年時,就你們在這個節骨眼上如何看待工資壓榨者以及你是否認為 OG&A 槓桿點可能會降低而言,有什麼見解嗎?
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Yes. Rupesh, thanks for the question. Maybe just a little bit more color on Q3 and Q4 as well because I think there's a little bit more to the story there as well that's worth understanding. I would say that certainly, you're right, the -- we saw a lot of benefit from sales leverage and productivity improvements during the quarter.
是的。 Rupesh,謝謝你的提問。 Q3 和 Q4 的顏色可能也多了一點,因為我認為那裡的故事還有一些值得理解的地方。我肯定會說,你是對的——我們從本季度的銷售槓桿和生產率提高中看到了很多好處。
The team did a great job in really managing costs, considering the inflation that we're facing in some of those cost areas. We would have also had higher incentive plan costs year-over-year in quarter higher technology costs. We're investing in a number of areas that we're seeing growth in year-over-year. And some of that is maybe flipping from capital to operating expense because as you move more to cloud-based activity.
考慮到我們在某些成本領域面臨的通貨膨脹,該團隊在實際管理成本方面做得很好。在更高的技術成本季度,我們也會有更高的激勵計劃成本。我們正在投資一些我們看到同比增長的領域。其中一些可能會從資本支出轉向運營支出,因為隨著您更多地轉向基於雲的活動。
It just -- it does change the mix there as well. And we also invested, as we did in Q2 in some consultants and some advisory work to help build future momentum in the growth. So I would say the underlying improvement in productivity was stronger than the quarter would have suggested, and we feel good about the ability to leverage OG&A and fund the average hourly rate increases that we're seeing.
它只是 - 它確實也改變了那裡的混音。正如我們在第二季度所做的那樣,我們還投資了一些顧問和一些諮詢工作,以幫助建立未來的增長勢頭。所以我想說生產力的潛在改善比本季度所暗示的要強,我們對利用 OG&A 和為我們看到的平均小時費率增長提供資金的能力感到滿意。
In fact, as I mentioned earlier, the Q4 number as we're cycling a fairly flat OG&A rate in Q4, we would expect to be north of 20 basis points of leverage in the fourth quarter this year as we head into next year.
事實上,正如我之前提到的,由於我們在第四季度的 OG&A 利率相當平穩,因此我們預計在進入明年時,今年第四季度的槓桿率將超過 20 個基點。
Operator
Operator
And the next question is our final question to Robert S. Ohmes of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
下一個問題是我們向美銀美林的 Robert S. Ohmes 提出的最後一個問題。
Kendall Belinda Toscano - Research Analyst
Kendall Belinda Toscano - Research Analyst
This is Kendall Toscano on for Robbie. I just wanted to see if you could give any more color on how traffic looked during the quarter. What kind of trends you're seeing with items in the basket and number of trips to the store? And then, I guess, as you're expecting inflation to moderate a little bit in the fourth quarter, what you would expect on those items going forward?
這是羅比的肯德爾托斯卡諾。我只是想看看您是否可以對本季度的流量情況給出更多的顏色。您看到購物籃中的商品和前往商店的次數有什麼樣的趨勢?然後,我猜,由於您預計第四季度通脹會有所緩和,您對這些項目的未來預期是什麼?
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Yes. If you look at the overall trends in traffic, it continues to be improving. Obviously, the overall basket itself is heavily driven by inflation. But as I mentioned earlier, our trends on market share are moving in the right direction and continue to go in the right direction. In terms of the last part, I don't know, Gary, on inflation?
是的。如果您查看流量的總體趨勢,它會繼續改善。顯然,整體籃子本身在很大程度上受到通脹的驅動。但正如我之前提到的,我們的市場份額趨勢正在朝著正確的方向發展,並將繼續朝著正確的方向發展。關於最後一部分,加里,我不知道通貨膨脹?
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
Gary Millerchip - Senior VP & CFO
I think probably similar to what we shared earlier, I think overall, as we're looking at the way the customer is changing behavior, as Rodney mentioned, trips improving, generally fairly consistent, I would say, over the year, but we are seeing higher trips from those loyal shoppers that have traditionally shopped in many different retailers for different categories and now seeing that trip consolidate to Kroger. I think is an important trend that we've seen throughout the year and continue to accelerate in the third quarter.
我認為可能與我們之前分享的內容類似,我認為總體而言,因為我們正在研究客戶改變行為的方式,正如羅德尼提到的那樣,旅行正在改善,我會說,在過去的一年中,總體上相當一致,但我們是從那些傳統上在許多不同零售商處購買不同類別商品的忠實購物者看到更高的行程,現在看到該行程整合到克羅格。我認為這是我們全年看到的一個重要趨勢,並在第三季度繼續加速。
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
William Rodney McMullen - Chairman of the Board & CEO
Yes. Gary, I think that's a great point, and thanks for the questions. And for everyone, thank you for joining us today. As always, I always like to share a few comments directly with our associates listening in because so many of our associates take the time to do that, which we appreciate. This is the time of year we truly shine.
是的。加里,我認為這是一個很好的觀點,感謝您提出問題。對於每個人,感謝您今天加入我們。與往常一樣,我總是喜歡直接與傾聽的同事分享一些評論,因為我們的許多同事都花時間這樣做,我們對此表示讚賞。這是一年中我們真正閃耀的時刻。
Our special holiday film made clear. We create the opportunity for our customers to transform today's holiday moments into tomorrow's memories. We've had the pleasure to hear from countless associates former associates and customers about just how touching this film has been. I know I can't watch it without getting a tear in my eye. And just reminding all of us how special it is to share favorite meals with those we love most.
我們的特別假期電影清楚地表明了這一點。我們為客戶創造機會,將今天的假期時刻變成明天的回憶。我們很高興聽到無數同事、前同事和客戶講述這部電影的感人之處。我知道我不能不流淚看它。只是提醒我們所有人與我們最愛的人分享最喜歡的食物是多麼特別。
Thank you to our teams who put this together. Thank you for our teams who make the memories happen. It's a wonderful way to kick off the holiday season. As we all prepare together with our loved ones, I am so incredibly proud of our associates across the Kroger family of companies. We have accomplished so much this year. Thank you for the many ways you serve our communities and uplift our customers and each other. This concludes our call for today. We wish everyone a happy holiday season. Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and encourage you to stay safe. Thank you.
感謝我們的團隊將這些整合在一起。感謝我們的團隊,讓回憶成為現實。這是開啟假期的絕妙方式。當我們和我們所愛的人一起準備時,我為克羅格公司家族的員工感到無比自豪。今年我們取得了很多成就。感謝您以多種方式為我們的社區服務並提升我們的客戶和彼此。我們今天的呼籲到此結束。我們祝大家節日快樂。聖誕快樂,新年快樂,並鼓勵你保持安全。謝謝你。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This now concludes today's call. Thank you so much for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。