Kinetik Holdings Inc (KNTK) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. Thank you for attending today's Kinetik first quarter 2025 results conference call. My name is Tamia, and I will be your moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) I would now have to pass the conference over to your host, Alex Durkee with Kinetik. You may proceed.

    早安.感謝您參加今天的 Kinetik 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。我叫 Tamia,我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。(操作員指示)現在我必須將會議交給主持人,Kinetik 的 Alex Durkee。您可以繼續。

  • Alex Durkee - Director of Investor Relations

    Alex Durkee - Director of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Kinetik's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Our speakers today are Jamie Welch, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Trevor Howard, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for this morning's call.

    謝謝。早安,歡迎參加 Kinetik 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的演講者是總裁兼執行長 Jamie Welch 和高級副總裁兼財務長 Trevor Howard。我們高階管理團隊的其他成員也出席了今天上午的電話會議。

  • The press release we issued yesterday, the slide presentation, and access to the webcast for today's call are available at www.kinetik.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including the question-and-answer section, will provide forward-looking statements. An actual result could differ from what is described in these statements.

    我們昨天發布的新聞稿、幻燈片演示以及今天電話會議的網路直播均可在 www.kinetik.com 上取得。在開始之前,我想提醒各位聽眾,我們的發言(包括問答環節)將包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些聲明中所述的結果不同。

  • These statements are not guarantee of the future performance and involve a number of risks and assumptions. We may also provide certain performance measures that do not conform to US GAAP. We've provided schedules that reconcile these non-GAAP measures as part of our earnings press release. After our prepared remarks, we will open the call to Q&A. With that, I will turn the call over to Jamie.

    這些聲明並不能保證未來的表現,並涉及許多風險和假設。我們也可能提供某些不符合美國公認會計準則的績效衡量標準。作為收益新聞稿的一部分,我們提供了協調這些非 GAAP 指標的時間表。在我們準備好發言之後,我們將開始問答環節。說完這些,我會把電話轉給傑米。

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Alex. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call. 2025 is off to an eventful start. Kinetik reported solid first quarter results that exceeded internal expectations. We made strong progress on the strategic projects in our short cycle backlog, and we're excited to increase capital returns to shareholders via our $500 million share repurchase program announced yesterday.

    謝謝你,亞歷克斯。大家早安。感謝您參加我們的電話會議。 2025 年將迎來多事之秋。Kinetik 公佈第一季業績穩健,超乎內部預期。我們在短週期積壓的策略項目上取得了重大進展,我們很高興透過昨天宣布的 5 億美元股票回購計畫增加股東的資本回報。

  • These accomplishments are despite the elevated volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty that have prevailed since the beginning of the year.

    儘管自今年年初以來宏觀經濟波動性和不確定性加劇,我們仍然取得了這些成就。

  • The first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $250 million grew 7% year over year, driven by processed gas volume growth and margin expansion in our midstream logistics segment, which Trevor will cover in more detail shortly.

    第一季調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.5 億美元,較去年同期成長 7%,這得益於加工天然氣量的成長和中游物流部門利潤率的擴大,Trevor 將很快對此進行詳細介紹。

  • In the quarter we made substantial progress across our strategic projects. We completed connections of the inlet and sales pipelines at Kings Landing, and we remain on track to start commissioning activities in six weeks. As part of the inlet pipeline connections at Kings Landing, the northern stretch of the ECCC pipeline that connects our Eddy County project to the Kings Landing Complex is almost complete, which is critical as this will allow us to begin flowing volumes from the Carlsbad area to Kings Landing for processing upon startup.

    本季度,我們的戰略項目取得了實質進展。我們完成了 Kings Landing 入口和銷售管道的連接,並將在六週內開始調試活動。作為 Kings Landing 入口管道連接的一部分,連接我們的 Eddy County 項目和 Kings Landing 綜合設施的 ECCC 管道北段已接近完工,這至關重要,因為這將使我們能夠在啟動後開始從卡爾斯巴德地區輸送大量流體到 Kings Landing 進行處理。

  • Also, we have much of the integration of the Barilla Draw assets behind us since closing the transaction in mid-January. Starting in April, one of the existing processing dedications expired and rolled to Kinetik, and we began processing a portion of the gathered gas from that point. We've been really excited about this acquisition, and so far we're seeing very positive results.

    此外,自 1 月中旬完成交易以來,我們已經完成了大部分 Barilla Draw 資產的整合工作。從四月開始,其中一項現有的處理專項服務到期並轉至 Kinetik,從那時起我們開始處理一部分收集到的天然氣。我們對此次收購感到非常興奮,到目前為止,我們看到了非常積極的成果。

  • Kinetik is levered to one of the most prolific oil producing basins in the world. Innovation and R&D over the past 10 years has only driven producers break even costs lower. Now while the Permian is not insulated from macroeconomic and commodity price headwinds, in our view it is the best location to weather challenging times, and so we remain bullish on the Permian's resiliency.

    Kinetik 位於世界上最多產油的盆地之一。過去 10 年的創新和研發只會降低生產商的損益平衡成本。現在,雖然二疊紀盆地未能免受宏觀經濟和大宗商品價格逆風的影響,但我們認為,它是度過艱難時期的最佳地點,因此我們仍然看好二疊紀盆地的彈性。

  • Even in down cycles, we saw associated gas growth due to rising gas to oil ratios. For example, Permian gas grew over 2 billion cubic feet per day for 1 million barrels per day of crude oil growth in 2018.

    即使在經濟下行週期,我們也看到由於氣油比上升導致相關天然氣產量成長。例如,2018 年二疊紀天然氣產量每天增加 20 億多立方英尺,而原油產量每天增加 100 萬桶。

  • Whereas today Permian crude is expected to grow only 200,000 to 300,000 barrels per day, a quarter of 2018 levels at the midpoint, while associated gas growth is expected to remain above 2 billion cubic feet per day. Even if Permian crude production were to stay flat, we still anticipate over 1 billion cubic feet per day or low to mid-single digits of gas growth per year. As a pure play Permian midstream company with a focus on natural gas, we are poised to capitalize on this opportunity.

    而目前二疊紀原油產量預計僅增加 20 萬至 30 萬桶/日,相當於 2018 年中期產量的四分之一,而伴生天然氣產量預計仍將維持在 20 億立方英尺/日以上。即使二疊紀原油產量保持不變,我們仍然預計日產量將超過 10 億立方英尺,或每年天然氣產量將以低至中等個位數增長。作為一家專注於天然氣的二疊紀中游公司,我們已準備好利用這個機會。

  • First and foremost, our top priority is to provide flow assurance and operational reliability to our producer customers. We have a proven track record of scaling our growth and asset footprint based on our customers' needs, evidenced by our organic and inorganic expansion into New Mexico last year.

    首先,我們的首要任務是為我們的生產商客戶提供流量保證和營運可靠性。我們擁有根據客戶需求擴大成長和資產足跡的成功經驗,去年我們在新墨西哥州的有機和無機擴張就證明了這一點。

  • Our acquisition of Barilla Draw in the first quarter of this year, and our previously announced new large scale infrastructure projects that will increase resource extraction and drive material cost savings.

    我們在今年第一季收購了 Barilla Draw,並且我們之前宣布了新的大型基礎設施項目,這些項目將增加資源開採並推動材料成本節約。

  • Importantly, we will take a measured approach to future spend. While we still have the utmost conviction in an expansion at Kings Landing and the behind the meter power generation opportunity in Reeves County, Texas, we have the flexibility to be prudent and patient on the timing for final investment decisions.

    重要的是,我們將對未來的支出採取審慎的態度。雖然我們仍然對金斯蘭丁的擴建和德克薩斯州里夫斯縣的用戶側發電機將充滿信心,但我們也可以靈活地對最終投資決策的時機保持謹慎和耐心。

  • Now before I turn the call over to Trevor, I want to reiterate the steps we've taken over the past few years that have positioned Kinetik with a multi-year industry-leading earnings growth outlook, strong free cash flow profile, and substantial financial flexibility.

    現在,在我將電話轉給 Trevor 之前,我想重申一下過去幾年我們採取的措施,這些措施使 Kinetik 擁有多年行業領先的盈利增長前景、強勁的自由現金流狀況和相當大的財務靈活性。

  • We have grown our asset footprint alongside some of the best producers in the Delaware Basin, enabling their significant multi-year development plans.

    我們與特拉華盆地的一些最佳生產商一起擴大了我們的資產足跡,為他們實現重要的多年期發展計劃提供了支持。

  • We maintain a limited short cycle project backlog with very high underwriting standards. In fact, we have less than $50 million of committed growth capital in 2026. Everything else is discretionary and flexible in the event that the macro economy deteriorates significantly.

    我們保持有限的短週期項目積壓,並具有非常高的承保標準。事實上,到 2026 年,我們承諾的成長資本將不到 5,000 萬美元。如果宏觀經濟嚴重惡化,其他一切都是可自由支配和靈活的。

  • We high graded our contracts with fee-based and/or take or pay structures, providing strong visibility to our growth outlook. We prioritize the leveraging, achieving a leverage ratio under our 3.5 times target, and we remain focused on what is within our control, applying a high level of scrutiny across all spend categories.

    我們對基於費用和/或照付不議結構的合約給予了高度評價,為我們的成長前景提供了強大的可視性。我們優先考慮槓桿作用,實現低於 3.5 倍目標的槓桿率,並且我們仍然專注於我們能夠控制的範圍,對所有支出類別進行嚴格審查。

  • This positioning gave our board and management the conviction that now was the right time to increase our share repurchase program up to $500 million. Further underpinning our team's belief in Kinetik's value proposition, senior management will receive a material percentage of this year's remaining salary in Kinetik common stock, including myself, at 100%.

    這項定位使我們的董事會和管理層確信,現在是將股票回購計畫增加至 5 億美元的最佳時機。為了進一步鞏固我們團隊對 Kinetik 價值主張的信念,高階主管(包括我自己)將獲得今年剩餘薪水的很大一部分(以 Kinetik 普通股形式),100%。

  • While we're taking a bit of a wait and see approach, our goal is to be as transparent as possible with our expectations today and over the coming months. With that, I'll turn the call over to Trevor to discuss first quarter results and 2025 expectations in more detail.

    雖然我們採取了觀望態度,但我們的目標是盡可能透明地公開我們今天和未來幾個月的預期。接下來,我將把電話轉給特雷弗,更詳細地討論第一季的業績和 2025 年的預期。

  • Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thanks, Jamie. In the first quarter, we reported adjusted EBITDA of $250 million. We generated distributable cash flow of $157 million and free cash flow was $120 million.

    謝謝,傑米。第一季度,我們報告的調整後 EBITDA 為 2.5 億美元。我們產生了 1.57 億美元的可分配現金流,自由現金流為 1.2 億美元。

  • Looking at our segment results, our midstream logistics segment generated an adjusted EBITDA of $159 million in the quarter, up 11% year over year on increased processed gas volumes and margin expansion from our northern Delaware assets. Processed gas volumes were up sequentially, largely driven by the return to production at Alpine High.

    從各部門業績來看,我們的中游物流部門本季的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.59 億美元,年增 11%,這得益於天然氣加工量增加以及北特拉華州資產利潤率的提高。天然氣加工量較上季上升,主要由於 Alpine High 恢復生產。

  • There were fleeting curtailments at Alpine High in late March, which coincided with several days of depressed natural gas prices at the Waha Hub. Those volumes have returned and Waha natural gas prices have been surprisingly positive so far through this typical maintenance period of April and May.

    3 月底,Alpine High 出現了短暫的減產,與此同時,Waha Hub 的天然氣價格連續幾天處於低迷狀態。目前,天然氣產量已經恢復,而 4 月和 5 月這一典型的維護期內,Waha 天然氣價格迄今為止一直出人意料地保持正增長。

  • Also recall that we are now insulated from the lost gross margin impacts experienced in the fourth quarter of last year with additional transportation capacity to the Gulf Coast that started in March.

    還記得,由於從三月開始墨西哥灣沿岸運輸能力的增加,我們現在已免受去年第四季毛利率損失的影響。

  • Now shifting to our pipeline transportation segment, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $94 million down 2% year over year, driven by no contributions from Gulf Coast Express following the sale of our equity interest in the second quarter of 2024. This was mostly offset by an increased contribution in EPIC Crude year over year from our additional 12.5% ownership of the pipe.

    現在轉向我們的管道運輸部門,我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 9,400 萬美元,年減 2%,這是由於 2024 年第二季出售我們的股權後,Gulf Coast Express 沒有做出任何貢獻。這大部分被我們因額外持有 12.5% 的管道所有權而導致的 EPIC 原油貢獻同比增加所抵消。

  • Total capital expenditures for the quarter were $78 million and in March we issued an additional $250 million of our existing sustainability linked senior notes due 2028. And last month we renewed our accounts receivable securitization facility for another year and increased the facility size to $250 million.

    本季總資本支出為 7,800 萬美元,3 月我們又發行了 2.5 億美元現有永續發展掛鉤優先票據,到期日為 2028 年。上個月,我們將應收帳款證券化工具續約一年,並將工具規模增加至 2.5 億美元。

  • Our leverage ratio for our credit agreement stands at 3.4 times. On a full year basis, we are affirming adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.09 billion to $1.15 billion in capital guidance of $450 million to $540 million that were issued at the end of February.

    我們的信貸協議槓桿率為3.4倍。從全年來看,我們確認 2 月底發布的調整後 EBITDA 指引為 10.9 億美元至 11.5 億美元,資本指引為 4.5 億美元至 5.4 億美元。

  • We expect a meaningful acceleration and adjusted EBITDA growth during the second half of the year. We expect to reach annualized adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.2 billion in the fourth quarter, inclusive of the commissioning of Kings Landing and the subsequent unlocking of over 100 million cubic feet per day of currently curtailed volumes, as well as our customers' current development plans.

    我們預計今年下半年將出現顯著加速和調整後 EBITDA 成長。我們預計第四季度的年化調整後 EBITDA 將達到約 12 億美元,其中包括 Kings Landing 的投入使用以及隨後每天釋放超過 1 億立方英尺的目前受限的產量,以及我們客戶當前的開發計劃。

  • Additionally, we expect increasing contributions from Barilla Draw, the Eddy County Project, and our Lee County agreement as the year progresses.

    此外,我們預計隨著時間的推移,Barilla Draw、Eddy County 計畫和 Lee County 協議的貢獻將會增加。

  • Since Liberation Day, we have seen energy commodity futures decline and are lower than our guidance price tag. Approximately 83% of our 2025 expected gross profit is sourced from fixed fee agreements, and as of today, we have only 3% of total gross profit that is unhedged and directly tied to commodity prices.

    自解放日以來,我們看到能源商品期貨價格下跌,低於我們的指導價格。我們 2025 年預期毛利的約 83% 來自固定費用協議,截至今天,我們只有 3% 的總毛利未經對沖且直接與商品價格掛鉤。

  • The price that used to set the 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance assumes market forward pricing as of February 20. Marking to market the current strip pricing, we estimate an approximately $20 million headwind to adjusted EBITDA for the full year.

    用於設定 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 指引的價格假設了截至 2 月 20 日的市場遠期定價。根據目前的市場價格,我們估計全年調整後的 EBITDA 將面臨約 2000 萬美元的不利影響。

  • We are also beginning to see the indirect impacts of a lower commodity price environment. As we receive updated development schedules from some of our customers, several well pads that were scheduled to turn in line in the fourth quarter are being pushed into 2026, indicating a possible slowdown in activity towards the end of the year. This led us to adjust our full year gaps process volume growth assumption from approximately 20% to high-teens growth.

    我們也開始看到大宗商品價格下跌環境的間接影響。隨著我們從一些客戶那裡收到更新的開發計劃,原定於第四季度投入使用的幾個井場被推遲到 2026 年,這表明年底活動可能會放緩。這導致我們將全年差距處理量成長假設從約 20% 調整為高位數成長。

  • Turning to capital guidance, our team has made substantial progress on the Kings Landing construction and remains on track to start commissioning in the next six weeks. With that in mind, our CapEx this year is first half weighted and represents approximately 65% of 2025 capital.

    談到資本指導,我們的團隊在 Kings Landing 建設方面取得了實質進展,並有望在未來六週內開始投入使用。考慮到這一點,我們今年的資本支出是上半年加權的,約佔 2025 年資本的 65%。

  • As we look to the second half of the year, we have some carryover spend into July for Kings Landing, and construction commences at ECCC in the third quarter, with total spend tapering off in the fourth quarter. Our major announced capital projects, including the Kings Landing complex, the Eddy County Project, and ECCC pipeline, are largely insulated from any changes to tariff rates. Despite all of these impacts, we expect to be within our 2025 adjusted EBITDA and our capital guidance ranges.

    展望下半年,我們在 Kings Landing 的一些支出已結轉到 7 月份,ECCC 的建設將於第三季度開始,總支出將在第四季度逐漸減少。我們宣布的主要資本項目,包括 Kings Landing 綜合設施、Eddy County 項目和 ECCC 管道,基本上不受關稅稅率變化的影響。儘管存在所有這些影響,我們預計 2025 年調整後的 EBITDA 和資本指導範圍仍將維持在正常範圍內。

  • The first four months of this year have been quite dynamic. Kinetik has delivered solid first quarter results, demonstrated strong execution across our strategic project backlog, and taken significant steps to advance our finance-related objectives. I am proud of how our teams have remained incredibly focused despite the noise in the market.

    今年前四個月相當活躍。Kinetik 在第一季取得了穩健的業績,在我們策略性專案積壓中展現了強大的執行力,並採取了重要措施來推進我們的財務相關目標。儘管市場充滿噪音,我們的團隊仍能保持高度專注,我對此感到自豪。

  • As we look ahead, Kinetik is well-positioned to navigate this uncertainty. We have done it before. Since the merger in early 2022, we have continued to strengthen our business and enhance our financial flexibility, laying the foundation for a robust multi-year growth outlook and providing our Board with the confidence to authorize our $500 million share repurchase program that we announced yesterday.

    展望未來,Kinetik 已做好準備應對這種不確定性。我們以前也做過。自 2022 年初合併以來,我們不斷加強業務並增強財務靈活性,為強勁的多年增長前景奠定了基礎,並為董事會提供了信心,批准我們昨天宣布的 5 億美元股票回購計劃。

  • We have strong conviction in Kinetik's value proposition and are excited to accelerate capital returns to our shareholders in a more meaningful way. And with that we can open up the line for Q&A.

    我們對 Kinetik 的價值主張堅信不疑,並很高興以更有意義的方式加速向股東提供資本回報。這樣我們就可以開通問答專線了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Spiro Dounis, Citi

    花旗銀行 Spiro Dounis

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • First question, wanted to go to the long term growth if we could. Jamie, you've had a lot thrown at you early in the year like everybody else, so surprised you were able to sort of maintain that that 10% growth cager through 2030 or sorry 2029. So just want the level set there and make sure I understand, what are the drivers behind that? Sounds like gas growth is still something you see even in a flat crude environment. We want to make sure I understand all the pieces there.

    第一個問題,如果可以的話,我們希望實現長期成長。傑米,像其他人一樣,您在今年年初也遇到了很多困難,所以很驚訝您能夠將 10% 的增長率保持到 2030 年,或者更準確地說是 2029 年。因此,我只想在那裡設置級別並確保我理解,這背後的驅動因素是什麼?聽起來即使在原油價格平穩的環境下,你仍然可以看到天然氣產量的成長。我們想確保我理解其中的所有內容。

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So as far as the overall sequential growth and you know the base business supporting a 10% compound annual growth over the next five years, so much of it is driven -- let's start immediately, yeah, relative to [971 actual last year, 1120 obviously to the midpoint]. This year, as everyone knows going forward, I think you know consensus around [1.25] I think for next year. We still have in the immediate, yeah, 13%, 15% growth year on year.

    因此,就整體連續成長而言,你知道,基礎業務在未來五年內將實現 10% 的複合年增長率,其中很大一部分是由…驅動的,是的,相對於…[去年實際為 971 人,中間值顯然為 1120 人]。眾所周知,今年的前景將會一片大好,我想大家對明年的預期是 [1.25] 左右。是的,我們的銷售額仍保持著 13% 到 15% 的年成長。

  • Going out as we think about this, what drives so much of this is you know, we've got some fundamental contractual reset that provide tremendous inherent intrinsic value for this company without any capital. You have step ups under existing based contracts. We have Barilla Draw that we will get all of the processing starting and beginning of 2028. And we probably have I think the you know one of the most exciting acreage positions for the folks at Permian Resources where obviously there's a lot of growth in New Mexico.

    當我們思考這個問題時,我們發現,推動這一進程的很大一部分原因是,我們已經進行了一些基本的合約重置,這些重置為該公司在沒有任何資本的情況下提供了巨大的內在價值。您可根據現有的合約獲得進一步的提升。我們有 Barilla Draw,我們將從 2028 年開始完成所有的處理工作。我認為,對於二疊紀資源公司的人來說,我們可能擁有最令人興奮的土地位置之一,顯然新墨西哥州的成長潛力很大。

  • And so we look at that and we just -- we look at our overall base business, you know, same store sales relatively you know I would say modest growth on the Texas side and then New Mexico will continue to see pretty attractive growth.

    因此,我們看一下這一點,我們只是 - 我們看一下我們的整體基礎業務,你知道,同店銷售額相對較高,我想說德克薩斯州方面會適度增長,然後新墨西哥州將繼續看到相當可觀的增長。

  • What we told you all is you know we're looking at obviously either we're going to do a power generation project or we potentially will in fact procure compression and then reduce the amount of lease compression that we have. That has a direct immediate OpEx benefit, not something you leg into, but something you see immediately.

    我們告訴大家的是,我們正在考慮要么開展發電項目,要么實際上採購壓縮設備,然後減少我們擁有的租賃壓縮設備的數量。這會帶來直接的營運支出效益,雖然不是你能承受的,但可以立即看到。

  • So it's those factors collectively that really set you up for that growth and obviously part of that you know as we said with New Mexico is the prospect and. And likelihood that we will FYD Kings Landing too, which I think you know, as we've said, we have very, you know, I think strong conviction on.

    因此,正是這些因素共同作用,才真正為這種成長奠定了基礎,顯然,正如我們在談到新墨西哥州時所說,其中一部分就是前景。而且我們也有可能會在國王登陸時採取 FYD 行動,我想,正如我們所說的那樣,我們對此非常有信心。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Got it. Helpful. Second question, just going to capital allocation, I don't think any big decisions have been made yet, you know, sounds like you're being flexible here, but certainly noticing a pretty big pivot now obviously maybe a little bit away from organic growth towards buybacks. And I think you mentioned opportunities.

    知道了。很有幫助。第二個問題,僅就資本配置而言,我認為尚未做出任何重大決定,您知道,聽起來您在這裡很靈活,但肯定注意到現在有一個相當大的轉變,顯然可能有點偏離有機增長轉向回購。我認為您提到了機會。

  • But I mean that sounds like M&A. So I guess one is you're thinking about the buyback and how you deploy that. Maybe walk us through the mechanism for how much you sort of buy back in any given quarter and am I right in reading through on the opportunity side that maybe some assets drop loose here in this environment and you'd be ready to pick those up?

    但我的意思是這聽起來像是併購。所以我猜你正在考慮回購以及如何部署它。也許您可以向我們介紹一下您在特定季度回購多少資產的機制,我是否正確地從機會方面解讀出,也許在這種環境下某些資產會下跌,而您已準備好買入這些資產?

  • Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • This is Trevor. Thanks for the question. I think you characterized it correctly there at the very end, which is we're going to be flexible. We're going to be opportunistic and to the extent that we see value on the bolt on and the M&A side, then we will deploy the balance sheet and allocate capital there. But as it stands today and where we're at, we see and the Board sees tremendous value.

    這是特雷弗。謝謝你的提問。我認為你最後的描述非常正確,那就是我們將保持靈活性。我們將抓住機會,只要我們看到附加功能和併購方面的價值,我們就會部署資產負債表並在那裡分配資本。但就目前的情況和我們所處的情況而言,我們和董事會都看到了巨大的價值。

  • On our share price, we've worked really hard to get the business in the position that we're at today. I point you to page 9 of our investor relations slides. There's no changes to our finance related objectives. We're very cognizant of our leverage target like I had mentioned earlier, we worked really hard over the last three years to get the balance sheet to where we are today.

    就我們的股價而言,我們付出了巨大的努力才使公司達到了今天的地位。請看我們投資人關係投影片的第 9 頁。我們的財務相關目標沒有改變。正如我之前提到的,我們非常清楚我們的槓桿目標,過去三年我們非常努力地將資產負債表達到今天的水平。

  • We're still focused on investment grade ratings and we're still looking to deploy capital both inorganically, organically. But again, we're going to be opportunistic here and we see great value with where our current share price is and that was -- that gave the addiction to increase the share repurchase program from 100 to 500 in order to maintain flexibility as we navigate what are currently choppy markets in a choppy environment.

    我們仍然關注投資級評級,並且仍然尋求以無機和有機的方式部署資本。但是,我們再次強調,我們將抓住機會,我們認為當前股價具有巨大的價值,這讓我們有動力將股票回購計劃從 100 股增加到 500 股,以便在我們應對當前動蕩的市場環境時保持靈活性。

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Maybe I'll just jump on that. Yeah. Trevor describes as his great value. I describe it as incredible frustration, the stock price. I mean, think of it this way. Annualized first quarter is $1 billion of EBITDA, fourth quarter two quarters away, annualized EBITDA will be 1.2. Last time I checked with a calculator that is 20% growth in less than six months.

    也許我會立即採取行動。是的。特雷弗 (Trevor) 形容他的價值很高。我將其描述為令人難以置信的沮喪,股票價格。我的意思是,這樣想。第一季年化EBITDA為10億美元,兩季後的第四季度,年化EBITDA將達1.2億美元。上次我用計算機算了一下,不到六個月就成長了20%。

  • Go show me somewhere else that you can see that on top of almost an 8% yield and 3% to 5% guarantee growth and the dividend going forward with a 3.4 times I think on a credit agreement basis right now unadjusted just under 3.8. This is -- I mean this was a unanimous view from the Board, which was there is no way this stock sits with A4 in front of it and what if it does, then you just go for it.

    去別處看看,除了近8%的收益率、3%到5%的保證增長率,以及未來股息,我認為按信用協議計算,股息收益率為3.4倍,目前未經調整的股息收益率略低於3.8倍之外,你還能看到什麼呢?這是──我的意思是,這是董事會的一致意見,那就是這隻股票不可能被A4紙壓著,如果真的被壓著,那就買吧。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeremy Tonet, J.P. Morgan.

    摩根大通的傑里米·托內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Appreciate the vigor in the last response there. Just wanted to follow up a little bit more on the buybacks as it relates to how the pace could unfold here. Do you need to wait for kind of free cash flow generation to develop more or just the leverage is kind of low as what you were saying? Just wondering is this something that you guys can affect in the very you know -- in the near term given where the share price is as you move the forward handle?

    感謝最後回覆的活力。我只是想進一步跟進一下回購的情況,因為它與這裡的進展速度有關。您是否需要等待自由現金流產生進一步發展,或者只是等待槓桿率像您所說的那樣低?我只是想知道,考慮到隨著前進手柄的移動,股價在短期內處於什麼位置,這是否是你們能夠影響的事情?

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So and I appreciate the commentary on the vigor, although to be honest, I would tell you I'm just warming. If you wanted to really get my viewpoint in the context of how I sort of feel about where the stock is, I think from our vantage point, there's two -- there's probably the most salient point to think about cash flow.

    是的。因此,我很欣賞對活力的評論,儘管說實話,我會告訴你我只是在熱身。如果您真的想了解我對股票現狀的看法,我認為從我們的角度來看,有兩個方面——最突出的一點可能是考慮現金流。

  • You're seven weeks away from being 65% completed on your capital program for this year that you're literally on the backside. And you've only got $50 million committed through -- in 2026 and you've got this massive inflection between 1Q and 2Q, as I just pointed out in the context of just looking at that annualized first quarter versus fourth quarter EBITDA.

    距離今年資本計畫的 65% 完成還有七週的時間,但您已經快要到達終點了。而到 2026 年,您只承諾了 5000 萬美元,而且在第一季度和第二季度之間出現了巨大的變化,正如我剛才在查看第一季與第四季度年化 EBITDA 時指出的那樣。

  • So the short answer is yes, we can. I think we are well-equipped and able to actively engage in the program and we will be opportunistic and we will look to obviously maximize value for all of our shareholders. You know, I think as we sort of think about it, we trade it in, sort of the toothpick for the torpedo bet. All right, just in the context of the size of the program and how we're going to think about it. So I think we're going to be much more on the front foot, not the back foot.

    所以簡短的回答是,是的,我們可以。我認為我們已做好充分準備並能夠積極參與該計劃,我們將抓住機會,並尋求為所有股東實現價值最大化。你知道,我認為當我們考慮這個問題時,我們會用牙籤來交換魚雷的賭注。好的,僅就程序的規模以及我們如何考慮它而言。所以我認為我們將更多地採取主動,而不是被動。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you for that torpedo incoming. And just rounding out, I guess the capital allocation side, how you think about, you know, hurdles in this environment you look at KL2 and just what are the growth opportunities might have in front of you at this point? And wondering if you could just. Give us a little bit more thought there.

    知道了。這非常有幫助。感謝那枚魚雷的來襲。最後,我想從資本配置方面來說,您如何看待這種環境下的障礙?您來看看 KL2,目前您面前可能有哪些成長機會?想知道你是否可以。請給我們多考慮一下。

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Look, I think as Trevor pointed out, there's lots of opportunities. In a sort of uncertain world, there is always, you know, never pass up the opportunity to find really valuable opportunities when you've got uncertainty in front of you.

    看,我認為正如特雷弗所指出的那樣,有很多機會。在這個充滿不確定性的世界裡,當你面臨不確定性時,永遠不要錯過尋找真正有價值的機會。

  • And I think our viewpoint is everything is, we already had a pretty high underwriting standard for pretty much every transaction that we've done. You can just go back to our track record. I think, yeah, we would say we stand very proud of everything we've done including most recently Barilla Draw which has been a really exceptional start for that asset.

    我認為我們的觀點是,對於我們所做的幾乎每筆交易,我們已經有相當高的核保標準。您可以回顧一下我們的業績記錄。是的,我想,我們會說我們對我們所做的一切感到非常自豪,包括最近的 Barilla Draw,這對該資產來說是一個非常出色的開端。

  • We've now just put an even higher threshold than hurdle on it because we want to be ironclad certain in the context of the conviction we have and the underwriting commercial support for any transaction that we do. So we are going to really probe deeply on our level of conviction and then talk about it with the board. So we're very much open for business, but we're really, really going to pull apart every opportunity to make sure that we feel with absolute conviction that this is the right thing to do.

    我們現在設置的門檻比障礙還要高,因為我們希望在我們所擁有的信念和我們所做的任何交易的承銷商業支持方面做到絕對確定。因此,我們將深入探討我們的信念水平,然後與董事會討論。因此,我們非常願意開展業務,但我們會真正抓住每一個機會,以確保我們絕對相信這是正確的做法。

  • Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Jeremy, this is Trevor. One other thing that I would say is I don't want you to read into the share repurchase program increasing as a means or as a read through that the organic opportunity set is drying up. That is not the case at all as we plan for five years out, there are assets that are on the board that could make sense for them to be owned by Kinetik to the extent that we can get there on value, but with where we trade right now, this is, you know, inside of where we've seen Permian assets trade over the last 12 months.

    傑里米,這是特雷弗。我想說的另一件事是,我不希望你把股票回購計畫的增加解讀為一種手段,或解讀為有機機會正在枯竭。事實並非如此,因為我們計劃在未來五年內,董事會中的一些資產如果由 Kinetik 擁有,那麼在我們能夠實現價值的範圍內是合理的,但就我們目前的交易情況而言,您知道,這是我們在過去 12 個月中看到的 Permian 資產交易情況。

  • And so as we think about allocating capital and how we think about the repurchase, the repurchase very much is an acquisition and of itself, it's an acquisition of ourselves. And so we see a very deep bench of opportunities all around our entire system, both in Delaware South and Delaware North going forward.

    因此,當我們考慮分配資本以及如何考慮回購時,回購本身就是一種收購,也是對我們自己的收購。因此,我們看到整個系統(包括特拉華州南部和特拉華州北部)都存在著非常豐富的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Mackay, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的約翰·麥凱。

  • John Mackay - Analyst

    John Mackay - Analyst

  • Just you touched on this a lot, but I'd be curious to hear a little bit more just on your overall read on the macro review. We've obviously seen some activity cuts. I guess I'd just be curious to hear your view, do you think we're going to see more from here? And when we're thinking about your ability to pare down the CapEx, I guess. What would you be looking for on the macro front to say you know what we really do need to go to that $50 million next year?

    您多次談到這一點,但我很想聽聽您對宏觀評論的整體看法。我們顯然已經看到一些活動的減少。我想我只是想好奇地聽聽你的看法,你認為我們會從這裡看到更多嗎?我想,當我們考慮您削減資本支出的能力時。您會在宏觀層面尋找什麼來告訴我們明年我們真正需要多少資金才能達到 5,000 萬美元?

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • John, it's Jamie. So thanks for the question. I think look, right now there's just so much uncertainty in this world. Personally, I like the reference to the traffic light that I heard one of our large customers Diamondback talk about in the context of red, yellow, green.

    約翰,我是傑米。感謝您的提問。我認為,現在這個世界上存在著太多的不確定性。就我個人而言,我很喜歡聽到我們的一位大客戶 Diamondback 在紅、黃、綠的背景下談論交通號誌。

  • I think if we start to see further declines, right, you can -- as everyone's starting to see you can see some actual either turn in line cuts where production remains pretty much within guidance because you've had outperformance, you might see some rigs slow down, but you know you're going to start seeing that manifest itself if we continue at this pace going into 2026. What does that mean for us?

    我認為,如果我們開始看到進一步的下降,對吧,正如每個人都開始看到的那樣,你可以看到一些實際的生產線削減,產量仍然基本在指導範圍內,因為你的表現優異,你可能會看到一些鑽機速度放緩,但你知道,如果我們以這種速度繼續到 2026 年,你就會開始看到這種情況的顯現。這對我們意味著什麼?

  • It's going to be very much customer specific. It's hard to give a broad brush. There may be certain customers, like one of our largest PR, they've not put down any risks. They've put out their earnings. They're effectively -- they're slightly trimming their turn in line for. But their guidance on the crude side is hitting the mark because they've had great outperformance.

    這將非常針對客戶。很難做出概括性的概括。可能有些客戶,例如我們最大的公關公司之一,他們還沒有承擔任何風險。他們已經公佈了自己的收入。他們實際上正在稍微縮短排隊時間。但他們在原油方面的指導是達到了目標,因為他們的表現非常出色。

  • And look, we should know because obviously we deal with them on both the crude and the ore side -- sorry, the crude and gas side. So I do think it's going to be, you know it won't be one-size-fits-all. I think it will be very much customer specific and area and location specific.

    我們應該知道,因為顯然我們在原油和礦石方面都與他們打交道——抱歉,是原油和天然氣方面。所以我確實認為它不會是一刀切的。我認為這將很大程度上取決於客戶、地區和位置。

  • And I think we're just going to have to navigate our way through whatever that looks like at the time as to whether it's a $50 million program or it's slightly more. You know, obviously the important part of the $50 million, particularly as I referenced PR, ECCC and that Eddy County acreage, they are synonymous, they literally are, they are synergistic to one another.

    我認為我們必須根據當時的情況來確定這個項目的規模是 5000 萬美元還是略多一些。您知道,顯然 5000 萬美元中的重要部分,特別是當我提到 PR、ECCC 和 Eddy County 土地時,它們是同義詞,它們實際上是同義詞,它們相互協同作用。

  • And therefore, the evacuation over and above, the volume we can take at Kings Landing is all about getting it down ECCC and allowing us to bring it down South. So that's a very important piece of the overall system profile and how we think about Matt continuing to grow our top line. Trevor or Kris, I don't know if you guys have anything else to add.

    因此,除了國王登陸站所能接收的數量之外,我們所做的撤離工作就是將其運送到 ECCC 並允許我們將其運送到南方。所以這是整個系統概況中非常重要的一部分,也是我們如何看待馬特繼續增加我們的收入。特雷弗 (Trevor) 或克里斯 (Kris),我不知道你們是否還有其他要補充的。

  • Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, look, we're a midstream service provider and we're going to be responsive to our customers’ needs. We're going to be very mindful of that -- we're very mindful of the environment that we're in right now, as Jamie described it. We're seeing yellow lights, not red lights by any means.

    是的,我們是一家中游服務供應商,我們將回應客戶的需求。我們會非常注意這一點——我們非常注意我們現在所處的環境,正如傑米所描述的那樣。我們看到的是黃燈,而不是紅燈。

  • So we are proceeding with caution with the two large infrastructure projects that we've talked about in the past with an expansion of processing capacity across our system with the new cryo and a power -- and a behind the meter power generation project.

    因此,我們正在謹慎地推進我們過去談到的兩個大型基礎設施項目,透過新的低溫和電力以及電錶後發電項目來擴大我們系統的處理能力。

  • As we look at our updated and five year forecast from recently provided drill schedules from our customers, we still see a strong need for both. But that said, as we stand today, we are proceeding with caution with respect to you know large multi-year projects that are several hundred millions of dollars.

    當我們根據客戶最近提供的鑽井計劃查看更新後的五年預測時,我們仍然看到兩者都有強烈的需求。但話雖如此,就我們今天的立場而言,我們對耗資數億美元的大型多年期專案持謹慎態度。

  • But we're going to be responsive to our customers’ needs. A substantial portion of 2026 capital involves new compressor stations, new well connects and pipeline lines and looping. That's very short cycle capital. And so as we navigate through 2025 and plan for 2026, again we're going to be responsive to our customers are telling us.

    但我們會積極回應客戶的需求。2026 年資本的很大一部分涉及新的壓縮機站、新的井連接以及管道線路和環路。這是非常短週期的資本。因此,當我們展望 2025 年並規劃 2026 年時,我們將再次回應客戶的要求。

  • Kris Kindrick - Senior Vice President, Commercial

    Kris Kindrick - Senior Vice President, Commercial

  • And John, this is Kris, as Trevor pointed out a few moments ago. So there really hasn't been a slowdown in their organic opportunities with our customers either this year. You know, we announced a new deal in Reeves County with a private customer. In New Mexico, right now we're chasing a number of opportunities. So from that standpoint, we still see growth opportunities even in this environment. So again, great opportunities ahead of us.

    約翰,這是克里斯,正如特雷弗剛才指出的那樣。因此,今年我們與客戶的有機合作機會確實沒有減少。您知道,我們宣布與里夫斯縣的一位私人客戶達成了一項新交易。在新墨西哥州,我們現在正在尋找許多機會。因此從這個角度來看,即使在這種環境下,我們仍然看到成長機會。所以,我們面前又有巨大的機會。

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Kris, that's a great point. Yeah, I'm sure someone's probably going to ask us about the new JMP contract we did. I mean, from my lens that hits the trifecta. Reputable producer, very active in New Mexico. But the trifecta hit is gassy part of the of the basin on us there is it's short cycle capital, meaning that in the next several months we'll be getting production in minimal capital.

    克里斯,你的觀點非常好。是的,我確信有人可能會問我們有關我們簽訂的新 JMP 合約的問題。我的意思是,從我的角度來看,這是三連勝。信譽良好的生產商,在新墨西哥州非常活躍。但三重打擊是盆地中富含氣體的部分,對我們來說,這是短週期資本,這意味著在接下來的幾個月裡,我們將以最少的資本進行生產。

  • That's like a dream come true when you're a midstream company. So that sort of opportunity which is out there is really exciting. And I think we should, you know, the commercial team is continuing to do a really good job of finding those types of opportunities and leveraging what we've built over the past 12 years.

    對一家中游公司來說,這就像是夢想成真了。所以,這種機會確實令人興奮。我認為我們應該,你知道,商業團隊正在繼續努力尋找這類機會,並利用我們在過去 12 年所建立的成果。

  • John Mackay - Analyst

    John Mackay - Analyst

  • That's really good color. Appreciate all that. Second one for me, you guys have done a great job of kind of hedging out the commodity exposure this year. You just talked about looking forward, there's a ton of growth in the business that's already really baked in. Should that 83% fee based, should that kind of hold going forward? Is that going to increase, decrease? Maybe just frame up the kind of longer term view on that side.

    這顏色真好看。感謝這一切。對我來說,第二個原因是,今年你們在對沖商品風險方面做得很好。您剛才談到展望未來,業務將大幅成長,而且這項成長已經真正實現。如果以 83% 的費用為基礎,這種模式是否應該繼續保持?這會增加還是減少?也許只是從那個角度建構一個長期的觀點。

  • Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, there are some puts and takes to it. We have a pretty strong growth from the customers that we acquired in the Durango acquisition, which had a little bit more of a commodity weight to it relative to just the legacy Delaware South system, but we do see strong growth across Delaware South as well.

    是的,這其中存在著一些矛盾。我們在杜蘭戈收購中獲得的客戶實現了相當強勁的增長,相對於傳統的特拉華南部系統而言,杜蘭戈的商品權重略高一些,但我們也看到整個特拉華南部都實現了強勁的增長。

  • And then also the new Eddy County project, which are largely fee-based contracts. And so as we think about going forward, I would say mid-80s is the appropriate way to think about Kinetik's fixed fee composition. And about 15% is directly sourced from commodity prices.

    還有新的埃迪縣項目,這些項目主要是基於費用的合約。因此,當我們考慮未來時,我認為 80 年代中期是思考 Kinetik 固定費用構成的適當方式。其中約15%直接來自商品價格。

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Maybe just a little bit, yeah.

    可能只是一點點,是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Blum, Wells Fargo.

    麥可布魯姆,富國銀行。

  • Michael Blum - Analyst

    Michael Blum - Analyst

  • So given the comments on the producer activity in the back half of the year and just all the conversation you've had so far, would you say at this point you're trending towards the lower end of guidance or is that not the right way to look at it?

    那麼,考慮到對下半年生產商活動的評論以及您迄今為止的所有對話,您是否會說目前您正趨向於指導的低端,或者這不是正確的看待方式?

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Michael, I'm really, really glad you asked, somebody asked this question. We gave you all this detail. Obviously, we talked about the $20 million of commodity headwinds if you just basically mark to market. So very directly, it would be below the midpoint.

    邁克爾,我真的很高興你問了這個問題,有人問了這個問題。我們向您提供了所有這些細節。顯然,如果只是以市價計價,我們討論的是 2000 萬美元的商品逆風。因此,很直接地,它會低於中點。

  • We're in the range, but we are below the midpoint. But we wanted to give more detail because we just realized with every passing day, with the amount of announcements that it would be tone deaf to just say to put yourself in a bubble and say, oh, everything's fine.

    我們處於範圍內,但低於中點。但我們想提供更多細節,因為我們意識到,隨著每一天的過去,隨著公告數量的增加,如果只是說把自己置於泡沫之中,然後說,哦,一切都很好,那就太不合時宜了。

  • We moved stuff off from the fourth quarter. We looked at it, we've risked things, we've really, really spent a long time refreshing our overall forecast from February to today, engaged in lots of conversations with our customers because for us it's about capital spending. It's about setting compression. It goes into so many facets of our business that we need to know and our stakeholders need to be aware.

    我們從第四季開始就把一些事情轉移了。我們研究了這個問題,冒了風險,我們真的花了很長時間來更新從二月到今天的總體預測,並與我們的客戶進行了大量對話,因為對我們來說,這關乎資本支出。這是關於設定壓縮。它涉及到我們業務的許多方面,我們需要了解,我們的利害關係人也需要意識到。

  • Michael Blum - Analyst

    Michael Blum - Analyst

  • (technical difficulty)

    (技術難度)

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Michael if I can stop you there and you can hear me, it sounds like you've gone to -- you've become automated and it's very hard to understand. So maybe it's -- you want to try again because we did not pick up that last question.

    邁克爾,如果我能打斷你並且你能聽到我的話,聽起來你已經——你已經變得自動化了,這很難理解。所以也許是——你想再試一次,因為我們沒有回答最後一個問題。

  • Not really. Operator, do you hear?

    並不真地。接線員,你聽到了嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yes, it's coming through a bit choppy. Michael, could you please just press star 2, we'll allow you to requeue and then we'll see if your line is coming through a bit clear.

    是的,有點不順暢。邁克爾,請您按星號 2,我們會允許您重新排隊,然後我們會看看您的線路是否暢通。

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So why don't we take the next question?

    那我們為什麼不討論下一個問題呢?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • [Brandon Bingham, Deutsche Bank].

    [布蘭登·賓厄姆,德意志銀行]。

  • Brandon Bingham - Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking the questions. Just want to quickly go back and ask for the umpteenth time here about the multi-year outlook. But maybe just coming at it from a different angle. If you could help us better understand, maybe some of the sensitivity within that multiyear growth outlook to basin level growth or maybe asked in a different way, to what extent is the growth outlined for the multi-year outlook dependent upon basin level growth?

    你好,謝謝你回答這個問題。只是想快速回去並在這裡無數次詢問有關多年展望的問題。但也許只是從不同的角度來看它。如果您能幫助我們更好地理解,也許是多年期增長展望對流域水平增長的一些敏感性,或者換一種方式問,多年期展望所概述的增長在多大程度上依賴於流域水平增長?

  • And just you did a good job explaining a lot of the insulating factors that you have, the low hanging fruit, but if you could kind of maybe just speak more to the broader volumes trajectory as well that would be helpful.

    您很好地解釋了許多絕緣因素,這些因素都是唾手可得的,但如果您也可以多談談更廣泛的交易量軌跡,那將會很有幫助。

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure, Trevor, I think is probably the expert on this. But I do want to just make sure that we frame it for everybody. We look at this on what we'll call the base contract list that we have today with the and therefore the activity on the acreage that we have today. The only addition becomes Kings Landing and how that then thinks feeds into that from an overall production growth standpoint. But Trev, you want to --

    當然,我認為特雷弗可能是這方面的專家。但我確實想確保我們能為每個人建造它。我們根據今天所擁有的所謂基本合約清單來看待這個問題,因此也根據我們今天所擁有的土地上的活動來看待這個問題。唯一增加的是君臨城,以及從整體生產成長的角度來看,它如何融入其中。但是 Trev,你想--

  • Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, absolutely. The way that I would think about it is, as Jamie had pointed out earlier in his comments that our five year forecast and the -- excuse me, the 10% compound annual adjusted EBITDA CAGR only contemplates one cryo expansion over the next several years.

    是的,絕對是如此。我對此的看法是,正如 Jamie 之前在評論中指出的那樣,我們的五年預測和——對不起,10% 的複合年調整後 EBITDA CAGR 僅考慮在未來幾年內進行一次低溫擴張。

  • As we think about what we're seeing with our customers that are contracted today and their long term development plans as well as the organic opportunity set up there, we have very strong conviction that we're going to hit that target and we're going to exceed that target.

    當我們思考今天與客戶簽約的情況、他們的長期發展計劃以及在那裡建立的有機機會時,我們堅信我們將達到並超越這個目標。

  • We are a pro forma Kings Landing coming online. We are a 2.4 Bcf a day system. And so really the way to think about it is we're going from 2.4 to 2.6 Bcf a day by 2029. That is what's comprised in the 10% annual EBITDA CAGR.

    我們是即將上線的 Kings Landing。我們的系統每天可產出 24 億立方英尺。所以實際上我們應該這樣想:到 2029 年,我們的每日平均排放量將從 24 億立方英尺增加到 26 億立方英尺。這就是 10% 年 EBITDA CAGR 所包含的內容。

  • Brandon Bingham - Analyst

    Brandon Bingham - Analyst

  • Awesome, very helpful. And then maybe just quickly going over to the EPIC side, your partner kind of had some commentary that some might have found a little shocking in its letter to shareholders. Just I know that there hasn't been a lot of discussion around the expansion, but if you have any just broader updates on EPIC Crude and potential expansions in light of the commentary.

    太棒了,非常有幫助。然後也許只是快速轉到 EPIC 方面,您的合作夥伴在致股東的信中發表了一些評論,有些人可能會覺得有些震驚。我只是知道關於擴展的討論並不多,但如果您有任何關於 EPIC Crude 的更廣泛的更新以及根據評論的潛在擴展,請告知我們。

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Look, I think on EPIC Crude, the business continues to perform and execute very well. We are very mindful and remain very mindful of the compelling nature of our potential expansion. As you may know, yeah, with obviously the pro forma Double Eagle acquisition, Diamondback has an option for up to a third of any expansion that gets done.

    看起來,我認為 EPIC Crude 的業務繼續表現良好。我們非常清楚並且將繼續清楚我們潛在擴張的強制性性質。是的,如您所知,顯然透過形式上的 Double Eagle 收購,Diamondback 可以選擇完成任何擴展的三分之一。

  • So that's obviously with that amount of volume they control, obviously, that obviously hopefully significantly helps contribute to getting it done. It's a question of when and not if. And I think obviously right now just given the prudency and that we see out there, it's the timing is not ideal to be thinking about that potentially particular expansion and we will see over the passage of the remaining several months and to the balance of this year when and if that changes.

    因此,顯然,他們控制的數量顯然有助於顯著地完成任務。這是一個何時發生而不是是否發生的問題。我認為,顯然,就目前的謹慎態度以及我們所看到的情況而言,現在考慮這種潛在的特定擴張的時機並不理想,我們將在接下來的幾個月以及今年餘下的時間裡看到這種情況是否會發生改變。

  • Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • The other thing that I would add is, is that we still -- we view the Delaware as earlier in its maturation phase than the Midland. And so as we think about Delaware crude volumes over the next 5 years and 10 years relative to the Midland, we skew bullish to the Delaware and those incremental barrels, the preferred market for those barrels is Corpus and that has not changed in light of everything that has happened in the last two months.

    我想補充的另一件事是,我們仍然認為特拉華州的成熟階段比米德蘭州的成熟階段更早。因此,當我們考慮未來 5 年和 10 年特拉華州的原油產量相對於米德蘭的產量時,我們傾向於看好特拉華州和那些增量原油,這些原油的首選市場是科珀斯克里斯蒂,而考慮到過去兩個月發生的一切,這一點並沒有改變。

  • Corpus has remained sold out for a fair amount of time. Now that is still again the preferred route, and so we still see strong merits to an expansion. I would say Brandon and probably remiss in not saying it that you know May will be the first month that we start getting distributions for shareholders. So that's actually from a financial standpoint. The business has really done a good job, turn the corner, and it's on really strong footing.

    Corpus 的銷售情況已經持續了相當長一段時間。現在這仍然是首選路線,因此我們仍然認為擴張具有很大的優點。我想說的是布蘭登,我可能疏忽了沒有說出來,你知道五月將是我們開始為股東分配的第一個月。這實際上是從財務角度來看的。這項業務確實做得很好,已經走出了困境,並且基礎非常牢固。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Theresa Chen, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • I will take the bait on that new JMP agreement with the private producer in Reeves County. Can you talk about what kind of bulking metric or EBITDA step up that's going to bring?

    我將接受與里夫斯縣私人生產商達成的新的 JMP 協議。您能談談這將帶來什麼樣的成長指標或 EBITDA 提升嗎?

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I'm looking at Kris and Trevor. They're closer to it than I am.

    我正在看著克里斯和特雷弗。他們比我更接近它。

  • Kris Kindrick - Senior Vice President, Commercial

    Kris Kindrick - Senior Vice President, Commercial

  • Theresa, this is Kris. You know, we added this producer down in Texas, we do business with them today in New Mexico. As Jamie said, initial developments going to commence this year with a few wells with opportunities for more in the future.

    特蕾莎,這是克里斯。你知道,我們在德克薩斯州增加了這家生產商,今天我們在新墨西哥州與他們做生意。正如傑米所說,今年將開始初步開發幾口井,未來還有機會開發更多井。

  • So I think as Jamie alluded to, it's a gassy area. We hesitate on how much we want to guide on EBITDA, but it's south. It's not a lot of capital, it's sub-$5 million kind of on a run rate basis. But to Jamie's point, when you look at the capital needed to build and pursue that project, it was quite minimal, but we see a lot of growth with the acreage that we are getting down there. And so we are excited about adding that project.

    所以我認為正如傑米所提到的,這是一個充滿氣體的地區。我們對於 EBITDA 的指導金額猶豫不決,但答案是肯定的。這不是很多資本,以運行率計算,不到 500 萬美元。但正如傑米所說,當你看到建造和實施該項目所需的資金時,你會發現它非常少,但我們看到我們在那裡獲得的土地面積有了很大的增長。因此我們很高興能夠添加該項目。

  • Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Got it. And on the direct commodity exposure front, appreciate the $20 million mark to market illustrative data point for 2025. Looking to 2026, how hedged or insulated are you from commodity exposure at that point?

    知道了。在直接商品風險方面,我們讚賞 2025 年 2,000 萬美元的市價說明性數據點。展望 2026 年,屆時您對大宗商品風險的避險或保護程度為何?

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • We have, as you know, Theresa and we've said this, you know, we've had a literally multiyear program heavily weighted in the front and literally it is more tailored as you get out, further out you go from a time timeline standpoint.

    正如你所知,特蕾莎,我們已經說過了,你知道,我們有一個實際上多年的計劃,在前面佔了很大的比重,從時間線的角度來看,隨著你走得更遠,它實際上會變得更加量身定制。

  • So we've got good hedges in place for -- through the first half of into next year and then obviously it starts to decline more. So I think we still feel pretty good about what we've got and our ability to continue to add where we see opportunities.

    因此,我們已經做好了對沖準備——從上半年到明年,顯然它會開始進一步下降。因此我認為,我們對於自己所擁有的一切以及在看到機會時繼續拓展的能力仍然感到非常滿意。

  • Now the curve has become very flat. So that's kind of where we wanted just to look at it because there was so much noise in the marketplace. So we'll go look out and we're looking to continue to add to our overall hedging profile as we get out into that back end of '26.

    現在曲線已經變得非常平坦。所以我們只是想看看它,因為市場上有太多的噪音。因此,我們會保持警惕,並希望在進入 26 年末時繼續增加我們的整體對沖配置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Mosca, Mizuho Securities.

    瑞穗證券的羅伯特莫斯卡。

  • Robert Mosca - Analyst

    Robert Mosca - Analyst

  • So first one from me, circling back to the buyback authorization, just wondering how you approached that being mindful of the float. I think you have a lot of expiration approaching here in the next few months. So just wondering how you plan to navigate that.

    因此,我首先要問的是回購授權問題,我只是想知道您是如何在考慮流通股的情況下處理這個問題的。我認為在接下來的幾個月裡有很多債券即將到期。所以只是想知道您打算如何解決這個問題。

  • Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. Thanks for the question, Rob. First and foremost, I just wanted to point out that we are not speculating on what our sponsors are going to do. Really, the share repurchase program is just driven by our conviction and our earnings and strong free cash flow potential and the opportunity we see to create value for our shareholders, given where the stock has traded today.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,羅布。首先,我只想指出,我們不會猜測我們的贊助商會做什麼。實際上,股票回購計劃只是由我們的信念、收益、強勁的自由現金流潛力以及我們看到的為股東創造價值的機會(考慮到今天的股票交易情況)所驅動。

  • Since being public, we have increased the flow by over 5 times, so there's sufficient amount of float today to execute on the existing program. But to the extent that down the road if we are able to participate in a more bilateral trade, then that's something that if we see value, we're willing to entertain. But that said, the repurchase program how we think about it is just what's within our control and what's within our control is open market purchases.

    自上市以來,我們的流量增加了 5 倍多,因此今天有足夠的浮動資金來執行現有計劃。但如果我們將來能夠參與更雙邊的貿易,並且我們認為這有價值,我們願意接受。但話雖如此,我們所認為的回購計畫只是我們能掌控的,而我們所能控制的就是公開市場購買。

  • Robert Mosca - Analyst

    Robert Mosca - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks for that color, Trevor. And maybe for my follow-up, I think there's an expectation that Kinetik should realize some cost savings on the NGL pipeline side. Does that outlook maybe provide even more of an offset if you do enter a lower growth environment when it comes to signing new NGL contracts? Just wondering how we should think about that.

    知道了。謝謝你的顏色,特雷弗。也許在我的後續行動中,我認為人們期望 Kinetik 能夠在 NGL 管道方面實現一些成本節約。如果在簽署新的 NGL 合約時確實進入了較低的成長環境,這種前景是否可能會提供更多的抵銷作用?只是想知道我們應該如何看待這個問題。

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Look, I think on the -- I mean the short answer is it absolutely does. As you know, we have a number of contracts that roll off. We have a couple that roll off next year. We have a contract that rolled off in '27. We have a contract that rolls off in '28.

    是的。瞧,我認為——我的意思是簡短的回答是絕對如此。如您所知,我們有許多合約即將到期。我們有幾個將於明年推出。我們有一份於 27 年到期的合約。我們有一份將於 28 年到期的合約。

  • And when I say a contract, these are all NGL contracts. They are all well above market price today and obviously they provide a lot of overall economic benefit to the company going forward. So yes, even in a world that is more tempered as far as growth and production profile going forward, there's still a significant embedded value with respect to those contracts and those roll offs.

    當我說合約時,這些都是 NGL 合約。它們的價格都遠高於目前的市場價格,而且顯然為公司未來帶來了巨大的整體經濟效益。所以,是的,即使在未來的成長和生產狀況更加緩和的世界中,這些合約和這些訂單仍然具有顯著的內在價值。

  • There are the other thing that I would add is that if you go back to the comments that I made earlier about how we think about our processing capacity step ups over the 2024 to 2029 period and then you triangulate that with the finance related objectives of a 10% compound annual adjusted EBITDA CAGR through that period of time, it's pretty clear that earnings are growing more quickly than processing capacity expansions.

    我還想補充一點,如果你回顧我之前關於我們如何看待 2024 年至 2029 年期間加工能力提升的評論,然後將其與 10% 複合年調整後 EBITDA CAGR 的財務相關目標進行三角測量,那麼很明顯,收益增長速度快於加工能力擴張速度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Keith Stanley, Wolfe Research.

    基斯‧史丹利(Keith Stanley),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Keith Stanley - Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Maybe I could start on the second quarter if I could be more specific. The release says $1 billion rounded of EBITDA in the first half of the year and one could read that as EBITDA is pretty flat in Q2 at 250 again, is that the right read and growth is really kind of entirely in the second-half of the year. Or is it fair to assume some growth out of winter for this quarter?

    嗨,早安。如果我可以更具體的話,也許我可以從第二季開始。新聞稿稱,今年上半年的 EBITDA 約為 10 億美元,而人們可以理解,由於 EBITDA 在第二季度再次持平於 250,所以這是正確的解讀,成長實際上完全發生在下半年。或者可以合理地假設本季冬季會出現一些增長嗎?

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Keith, I think that's your analysis on the point is I think pretty much the case, right? It's pretty flat until you get Kings Landing starting online. You have a little bit on Barilla Draw, but again you know it's puts and takes again swings around about.

    基思,我想這就是你對這一點的分析,我認為情況基本上如此,對嗎?在 Kings Landing 上線之前,遊戲體驗一直比較平淡。您對 Barilla Draw 有一點了解,但您知道它又是擺放和取用,左右搖擺。

  • But you are right in the context of the real step change happens when Kings Landing comes on and you take, you know that 110 whatever it is, plus of curtail volume and constrained volume and basically start process. So that obviously is where you really start to see a significant increase in your overall economic profile.

    但您說得對,在真正的階躍變化發生的背景下,當君臨城上映時,您採取了 110 不管它是什麼,加上削減音量和限制音量,基本上就開始了這個過程。所以這顯然是你真正開始看到整體經濟狀況顯著改善的時候。

  • Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • With Kings Landing coming online too, you also have the margins step up on the currently gathered Eddy County project volumes.

    隨著 Kings Landing 計畫的上線,您目前收集的 Eddy County 計畫量的利潤也會隨之增加。

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, exactly because they are right now, they're just gathered, right? They're not processed.

    是啊,就是因為他們現在才聚集在一起,對吧?它們尚未經過處理。

  • Keith Stanley - Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. Second question. So you talked earlier about having the ability to do it all, pursue growth in M&A if it's out there and makes sense, achieve ID ratings and now potentially meaningful buybacks as well. How do you think about some of the non-operated pipeline assets as part of that equation because in the past the company has been willing to sell assets like GCX as a source of funds. Is that an option that's on the table as you're looking to kind of do all the pieces of the puzzle?

    知道了。這很有幫助。第二個問題。所以您之前談到了有能力做到這一切,如果存在並且有意義的話,追求併購的成長,獲得 ID 評級,現在也可能進行有意義的回購。您如何看待部分未營運的管道資產作為該等式的一部分,因為過去該公司一直願意出售 GCX 等資產作為資金來源。當您想要解決所有難題時,這是一個可以考慮的選項嗎?

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I would say yes. We are always open for business if we see compelling value. There are some within the three of the three EMIs that I would say are less strategic maybe in the context than others. But I definitely think we are open to maximizing value and redeploying proceeds into highly constructive, compelling value opportunities. That includes buying back our stock.

    我會說是的。如果我們看到引人注目的價值,我們就會隨時開展業務。我想說,在這三種 EMI 中,有些 EMI 在特定背景下可能不如其他 EMI 具有策略性。但我確實認為,我們願意實現價值最大化,並將收益重新部署到極具建設性、引人注目的價值機會。其中包括回購我們的股票。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Gupta, UBS.

    瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • I wanted to understand it's been about like almost four or five months since you acquired those assets from Permian Resources. So are the Barilla Draw assets actually meeting your expectations, exceeding expectations? If you could help us understand that a little better.

    我想了解一下,自從你們從 Permian Resources 收購這些資產以來,已經過了大約四到五個月的時間。那麼 Barilla Draw 資產是否真的符合您的預期,甚至超出了您的預期?如果您能幫助我們更好地理解這一點。

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • The Barilla Draw acquisition has been a fantastic acquisition. It has exceeded our expectations, lots of activity coming on. Again, we've just started processing some of the volume, but we really start -- we see a step change in the amount of what happens on that particular asset position at the beginning of 2028, when another existing processing dedication terminates.

    對 Barilla Draw 的收購是一次非常棒的收購。它已經超出了我們的預期,許多活動即將進行。再說一次,我們剛開始處理部分數量,但我們確實開始了——當另一個現有的處理專用終止時,我們會看到在 2028 年初該特定資產頭寸上發生的數量發生階躍變化。

  • But it is -- there's been a lot of activity. It's a really exciting acreage position for Permian Resources, one that they've putting a lot of capital behind. There's a lot of turn in line activity that remains already. We've seen a large well pad. We've got another very large well pad slated for the second-half of this year. So I think we're really, really excited by what we've seen.

    但確實——已經有很多活動了。對於 Permian Resources 來說,這是一個非常令人興奮的區塊,他們為此投入了大量資金。還有很多轉彎線活動尚未完成。我們看到了一個很大的井場。我們計劃在今年下半年建造另一個非常大的井場。所以我認為我們對所看到的一切感到非常非常興奮。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Perfect. My quick follow-up here is and I understand you haven't FYD the behind the meter power solutions yet, but in terms of the discussions and demand out there, what are you seeing in terms of companies coming in or customers coming in with the need for behind the meter power solutions and how can that play in the hands of Kinetik?

    完美的。我的快速跟進是,我知道您還沒有 FYD 電錶後電力解決方案,但就目前的討論和需求而言,您看到有多少公司或客戶需要電錶後電力解決方案,以及 Kinetik 可以如何利用這些解決方案?

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. So just to frame the power generation opportunity, we have a couple of partners that we've been talking to. It's not more expensive than that. They all have relatively concentrated needs for electric power from a geographical low position standpoint, which maps very nicely to our needs.

    當然。因此,為了掌握發電機會,我們已經與一些合作夥伴進行了洽談。沒有比這更貴的。從地理位置較低的角度來看,它們對電力的需求都相對集中,這與我們的需求非常吻合。

  • So there's a lot of synergies by pooling our resources together, co-owning an asset, and taking our proportionate level of electricity. So we continue to see, we think this is really, I would say this is the beta test for this project and how we think about power going forward.

    因此,透過集中我們的資源、共同擁有資產並按比例分配電力,可以產生許多協同效應。所以我們繼續觀察,我們認為這真的是,我想說這是這個專案的 beta 測試,以及我們如何看待未來的電力。

  • And if this works as we anticipate it will, there is certainly opportunity to with at least one of these potential joint venture partners to do this again in New Mexico. So that's definitely I think we're really excited by what we can do here and we just think it is -- again it is very -- it's just smart business, right. This is optimizing your cost of goods.

    如果一切順利,我們肯定有機會與至少一位潛在的合資夥伴在新墨西哥州再次進行此類合作。所以我認為我們對我們能在這裡做的事情感到非常興奮,我們只是認為這是——再說一次——這只是聰明的生意,對吧。這正在優化您的商品成本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. There are currently no more questions queued, so I'll pass it back over to Jamie for your closing remarks.

    謝謝。目前沒有其他問題,因此我將把問題交還給 Jamie,請他作最後發言。

  • Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you very much, everybody. We'll see probably many of you at the EIC in the next few weeks and until then signing off.

    非常感謝大家。我們可能會在接下來的幾週內在 EIC 見到你們中的許多人,直到那時才簽字。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。