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Operator
Operator
Good morning. Thank you for attending today's Kinetik third-quarter 2024 results conference call. My name is Makayia, and I'll be the moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions)
早安.感謝您參加今天的 Kinetik 2024 年第三季業績電話會議。我叫 Makayia,我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。(操作員指令)
I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Alex Durkee. Alex, you may proceed.
現在我想將會議交給主持人亞歷克斯·德基 (Alex Durkee)。亞歷克斯,你可以繼續了。
Alex Durkee - Director of Investor Relations
Alex Durkee - Director of Investor Relations
Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Kinetik's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Our speakers today are Jamie Welch, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Trevor Howard, Chief Financial Officer. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for this morning's call. The press release we issued yesterday, the slide presentation, and access to the webcast for today's call are available at www.kinetik.com.
謝謝。早安,歡迎參加 Kinetik 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的演講者是總裁兼執行長 Jamie Welch 和財務長 Trevor Howard。我們高階管理團隊的其他成員也出席了今天上午的電話會議。我們昨天發布的新聞稿、幻燈片演示以及今天電話會議的網路直播可以在www.kinetik.com上找到。
Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including the question-and-answer section, will provide forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ from what is described in these statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve a number of risks and assumptions.
在我們開始之前,我想提醒所有聽眾,我們的評論,包括問答部分,將提供前瞻性陳述,實際結果可能與這些陳述中描述的不同。這些聲明並不能保證未來的表現,並涉及許多風險和假設。
We may also provide certain performance measures that do not conform to US GAAP. We've provided schedules that reconcile these non-GAAP measures as part of our earnings press release. After our prepared remarks, we will open the call to Q&A.
我們也可能提供某些不符合美國公認會計準則的績效指標。我們在收益新聞稿中提供了協調這些非公認會計準則指標的時間表。在我們準備好發言後,我們將開始問答環節。
With that, I will turn the call over to Jamie.
說完這些,我會把電話轉給傑米。
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Alex. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today. We have a lot to get through, so let's get started. Yesterday, we reported our third quarter results. We logged Kinetik's single best quarter as a public company in terms of adjusted EBITDA, which was an increase of 23% year-over-year.
謝謝你,亞歷克斯。大家早安。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。我們有很多事情要做,所以讓我們開始吧。昨天,我們報告了第三季的業績。我們記錄了 Kinetik 作為上市公司在調整後 EBITDA 方面表現最好的一個季度,年增 23%。
We also processed gas volumes of 1.71 billion cubic feet per day, representing 15% growth year-over-year. As many of you are aware, negative gas prices persisted at the Waha Hub with the gas daily price averaging negative $1 per Mcf for the quarter. So the outperformance that we achieved is even more impressive when you take into account the nearly 170 million cubic feet per day of wellhead gas volume curtailed on our system due to pricing.
我們每天也處理 17.1 億立方英尺的天然氣,年增 15%。大家可能都知道,瓦哈樞紐的天然氣價格持續為負值,本季的日平均天然氣價格為每千立方英尺負 1 美元。因此,如果考慮到由於定價原因我們系統每天減少近 1.7 億立方英尺的井口天然氣量,我們取得的優異成績就更加令人印象深刻。
In September, we partnered with Diamondback Energy to acquire an additional equity interest in EPIC Crude, bringing Kinetik's total ownership to 27.5%. This was the much needed first step in a series of transactions to support continued growth and strengthen the financial profile of the pipeline. Diamondback has now committed approximately 33% of the overall capacity of the pipeline on a firm long-term basis.
9 月,我們與 Diamondback Energy 合作收購了 EPIC Crude 的額外股權,使 Kinetik 的總持股達到 27.5%。這是支持持續增長和加強管道財務狀況的一系列交易中急需的第一步。目前,Diamondback 已承諾長期承接該管道約 33% 的總產能。
Kinetik itself is also now finalizing a long-term transport agreement with EPIC. With these actions, EPIC Crude received a multi-notch upgrade from the credit rating agencies. And in early October, EPIC refinanced its Term Loan B, which significantly reduced its annual interest expense and positions the business to begin distributions to partners in early 2025.
Kinetik 本身目前也正在與 EPIC 敲定一項長期運輸協議。透過這些舉措,EPIC Crude 的評級從信用評級機構獲得了多個等級的升級。10 月初,EPIC 對其定期貸款 B 進行了再融資,這大大降低了其年度利息支出,並使其能夠在 2025 年初開始向合作夥伴分配利潤。
Also at the beginning of September, we received MRV plan approval from the EPA. The approved MRV plan covers three acid gas injection wells at our Maljamar and Dagger Draw processing facilities and enables Kinetik to economically benefit from the CO2 that we are currently capturing and sequestering on our system through 45Q credits.
同樣在九月初,我們收到了環保署的 MRV 計畫批准。已批准的 MRV 計劃涵蓋了我們 Maljamar 和 Dagger Draw 加工廠的三個酸性氣體注入井,並使 Kinetik 能夠從我們目前透過 45Q 信用在我們的系統中捕獲和封存的二氧化碳中獲得經濟利益。
This is only the fourth plan approved in the state of New Mexico. This is a significant step on our sustainability mission to continue decarbonizing our footprint. We are working to fully quantify the economic benefit, which we expect to recognize beginning in 2025. We have also started our MRV plans at our Diamond Cryo and Kings Landing processing complexes.
這只是新墨西哥州批准的第四個計劃。這是我們持續減少碳足跡的永續發展使命的重要一步。我們正在努力全面量化經濟效益,預計從 2025 年開始實現。我們也在 Diamond Cryo 和 Kings Landing 加工廠啟動了 MRV 計劃。
Construction has been progressing on our capital projects in Lea and Eddy Counties, New Mexico. Last quarter, we announced an amendment to an existing agreement in Lea County with one of our largest customers. The build-out to facilitate the MVC step-up and treating services is complete and the amended agreement commenced November 1.
我們在新墨西哥州利縣和艾迪縣的資本項目建設正在穩步推進。上個季度,我們宣布與我們最大的客戶之一在利縣簽訂的現有協議進行修訂。為促進 MVC 升級和處理服務而進行的建設已經完成,修訂後的協議於 11 月 1 日開始生效。
Our operations team remains highly focused on the construction of Kings Landing Cryo 1, and we're on track to commence operations in the second quarter of next year. We have 100 million cubic feet per day curtailed on our northern system as well as significant DUC inventory. So the in-service of Kingsland and Cryo 1 is critical for our customers in the region.
我們的營運團隊仍然高度專注於 Kings Landing Cryo 1 的建設,我們計劃在明年第二季開始營運。我們的北部系統每天有 1 億立方英尺的天然氣被削減,並且有大量的 DUC 庫存。因此,Kingsland 和 Cryo 1 的投入使用對於我們該地區的客戶來說至關重要。
We're also announcing today that we will connect the west side of our system with a large diameter, high-pressure, rich gas pipeline between Eddy County, New Mexico and Culberson County, Texas. This pipeline, which is expected in service in the first quarter of 2026, will leverage and optimize our available processing capacity and provide tremendous flexibility to move significant sweet gas volumes south, freeing up treating and processing space on the Durango system north for higher-margin sour gas.
我們今天也宣布,我們將在新墨西哥州埃迪縣和德克薩斯州卡爾伯森縣之間建立一條大直徑、高壓、富氣管道,連接我們系統的西側。該管道預計於 2026 年第一季投入使用,它將利用和優化我們現有的處理能力,並提供極大的靈活性,將大量酸性天然氣向南運輸,從而釋放杜蘭戈系統北部的處理和加工空間,以用於利潤更高的酸性天然氣。
The announcement represents a change in scope where we were initially contemplating a plant relocation to one of our Delaware North processing sites. Now that we fully understand the gas quality specs of existing PDP and new development on our northern system, this new pipeline is a far better solution across all aspects, operations, commercial, and financial.
該公告表明範圍發生了變化,我們最初正在考慮將工廠遷至特拉華北部加工廠之一。現在我們已充分了解現有PDP和北部系統新開發項目的天然氣品質規格,這條新管道在營運、商業和財務等各個方面都是更好的解決方案。
Starting with operations. The new pipeline will initially increase Delaware North access to processing capacity by 150 million cubic feet per day versus the originally contemplated 60 million cubic feet per day increase with the plant relocation.
從營運開始。新管道最初將使特拉華北部的處理能力增加 1.5 億立方英尺/天,而工廠遷移後最初預計的處理能力將增加 6,000 萬立方英尺/天。
On the commercial side, not only can we access more processing capacity for Delaware North, but this solution allows us to move lower-margin sweet gas south and replace those volumes with higher-margin sour gas.
從商業方面來看,我們不僅有能力提升特拉華州北部地區的加工能力,而且該解決方案還能讓我們將利潤較低的甜氣運往南部,以良好較高的酸性氣體替代。
On the financial side, the new pipeline does not represent an increase in CapEx. The new connector pipeline has already been underwritten and supported by our announced Eddy County gathering and processing project. Today's announcement is the first step of several that unlock significant value for our shareholders and customers.
從財務方面來看,新管道並不代表資本支出的增加。新的連接管道已經得到我們宣布的埃迪縣收集和處理項目的承保和支持。今天的公告是為我們的股東和客戶釋放重大價值的一系列舉措的第一步。
When announcing the Durango acquisition earlier this year, we said that connecting our North and South systems was a highly important strategic objective for the company. Today, I'm exceptionally proud of our team and excited for our customers with this new pipeline announcement.
今年稍早宣布收購 Durango 時,我們表示,連結我們的南北系統是公司非常重要的策略目標。今天,我對我們的團隊感到無比自豪,並對我們的客戶宣布這一新的管道感到興奮。
Our commercial team has also been very active with current and prospective customers up north to commercialize the build-out and expansion of the Kings Landing processing complex with Cryo 2, following our decision to purchase long lead critical path components.
在我們決定購買長週期關鍵路徑組件之後,我們的商業團隊也一直積極與北方現有和潛在客戶合作,利用 Cryo 2 實現 Kings Landing 加工廠的建設和擴建的商業化。
Given the need for additional processing capacity in the region, supported by exceptional reservoir quality and producers' well economics, we plan to take FID on Kings Landing 2 as soon as possible to enable producers to further develop the resource in that area.
鑑於該地區需要額外的加工能力,加上卓越的儲層品質和生產商油井經濟性的支持,我們計劃盡快對 Kings Landing 2 做出最終投資決定,以使生產商能夠進一步開發該地區的資源。
Each successive quarter this year, we have demonstrated outstanding performance and cost discipline, which gives us the confidence to tighten our capital expenditures guidance range and again raise our adjusted EBITDA guidance to now $970 million to $1 billion, with an internal goal to achieve at least the top end of this revised EBITDA range.
今年每個季度,我們都展現了出色的業績和成本控制能力,這使我們有信心收緊資本支出指導範圍,並再次將調整後的 EBITDA 指導值提高至目前的 9.7 億美元至 10 億美元,內部目標是至少達到這一修訂後的 EBITDA 範圍的最高值。
Annualized third quarter adjusted EBITDA actually puts us above our objective. So what was once a medium-term EBITDA target is now within immediate reach, and I'm incredibly proud of what our team has accomplished so far this year to make this a reality.
第三季調整後的年化 EBITDA 實際上使我們超越了目標。因此,曾經的中期 EBITDA 目標現在已觸手可及,我為我們的團隊今年迄今為實現這一目標所取得的成就感到無比自豪。
2024 also marks a year of strong execution on our capital allocation framework with achievement of our leverage target, pursuit of strategic and accretive growth projects and likely our adjusted EBITDA target of $1 billion. Our performance year-to-date and increased confidence in QinetiQ's outlook underscored the Board of Directors' decision to raise the quarterly cash dividend to $3.12 on an annualized basis.
2024 年也是我們資本配置架構強勁執行的一年,我們實現了槓桿目標、追求策略性和增值性成長項目,並且可能實現 10 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 目標。我們今年迄今的業績以及對 QinetiQ 前景的信心增強,強調了董事會決定將季度現金股息提高至年度 3.12 美元。
Looking ahead, we remain committed to a balanced capital allocation approach that provides both flexibility for organic and inorganic growth opportunities as well as continued acceleration of returns to shareholders through annual ratable dividend growth and opportunistic share repurchases.
展望未來,我們將繼續致力於均衡的資本配置方式,為有機和無機成長機會提供靈活性,並透過年度按比例股息成長和機會性股票回購持續加速股東回報。
So with all of that, I'd now like to hand the call over to Trevor to discuss the financial results and revised guidance in more detail.
因此,現在我想將電話交給 Trevor,以更詳細地討論財務結果和修訂後的指引。
Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Thanks, Jamie. In the third quarter, we reported adjusted EBITDA of $266 million. For the quarter, we generated distributable cash flow of $184 million and free cash flow was $165 million, increasing more than threefold year-over-year.
謝謝,傑米。第三季度,我們報告的調整後 EBITDA 為 2.66 億美元。本季度,我們產生的可分配現金流為 1.84 億美元,自由現金流為 1.65 億美元,較去年同期成長三倍多。
Looking at our segment results, our midstream logistics segment generated an adjusted EBITDA of $174 million in the quarter, up 24% year-over-year, largely driven by a full quarter of contributions from our assets in New Mexico as well as strong performance across our Texas assets. Following substantial maintenance overhauls at several Delaware South trains in the spring, we have seen our cryos perform exceptionally well, contributing to our bottom-line outperformance.
縱觀我們的分部業績,我們的中游物流部門本季的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.74 億美元,同比增長 24%,這主要得益於我們在新墨西哥州的資產整整一個季度的貢獻,以及我們德克薩斯州資產的強勁表現。在春季對特拉華南鐵路的幾列列車進行大規模維護檢修之後,我們發現我們的低溫製冷機表現非常出色,有助於我們實現更高的利潤。
Average gas process volumes were 1.71 billion cubic feet per day across the system. Growth in volumes was driven by our first quarter of our New Mexico processing plants, which are operating at full capacity and volumes in Texas were sequentially flat despite wellhead volume curtailments increasing approximately 30 million cubic feet per day over the same time period.
整個系統的平均天然氣處理量為每天17.1億立方英尺。產量成長主要得益於我們第一季新墨西哥州加工廠的滿載運轉,儘管在同一時期井口產量減少增加了約 3000 萬立方英尺/天,但德克薩斯州的產量仍環比持平。
Shifting to our pipeline transportation segment, we generated an adjusted EBITDA of $96 million, up 22% year-over-year. This year-over-year increase was driven by contributions from the PHP expansion and Delaware Link and our increased ownership in EPIC Crude. Shin Oak experienced volume growth and margin expansion in the quarter, while PHP posted stronger marketing margins and low fuel costs due to low Waha natural gas prices.
轉向我們的管道運輸部門,我們實現了 9,600 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA,年增 22%。這一同比增長主要得益於 PHP 擴張和 Delaware Link 的貢獻以及我們對 EPIC Crude 的持股增加。Shin Oak 本季實現了銷售成長和利潤擴大,而由於 Waha 天然氣價格較低,PHP 實現了更高的行銷利潤率和較低的燃料成本。
Total capital expenditures for the quarter were $59 million. Our leverage ratio per our credit agreement stands at 3.2 times below our target leverage of 3.5 times. In September, we received $30 million cash from an affiliate of ArcLight Capital Partners following the FID on the GCX expansion project, which we used towards debt repayment in the quarter.
本季總資本支出為 5,900 萬美元。我們根據信貸協議規定的槓桿率為 3.2 倍,低於目標槓桿率 3.5 倍。9 月份,在 GCX 擴建項目最終投資決定之後,我們從 ArcLight Capital Partners 的一家附屬公司獲得了 3000 萬美元現金,我們用這筆錢來償還本季度的債務。
As Jamie mentioned, we are revising upwards our 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance. We now estimate full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $970 million to $1 billion, a 3% increase at the midpoint versus the previous guidance range and year-over-year growth that approaches 20%.
正如 Jamie 所提到的,我們正在上調 2024 年調整後的 EBITDA 指引。我們現在預計 2024 年全年調整後 EBITDA 在 9.7 億美元至 10 億美元之間,比之前的指導範圍中位數增長 3%,同比增長接近 20%。
In our midstream logistics segment, we continue to expect year-over-year processed gas volume growth in the high teens. The Lea County MVC step-up and margin expansion for gathering, treating, and processing services commenced this month, and we anticipate the start-up of gathering services at our Eddy County project in December.
在我們的中游物流領域,我們持續預期天然氣加工量年增率將達到百分之十幾。本月,Lea County MVC 的收集、處理和加工服務的升級和利潤擴大已開始,我們預計 Eddy County 計畫的收集服務將於 12 月啟動。
Additionally, following the in-service of Matterhorn in the third quarter, we have seen some pricing relief at Waha, albeit brief, and we expect a return of curtailed volumes from Alpine High later this quarter following the completion of routine scheduled maintenance at the Permian residue gas pipelines. As a reminder, our equity residue gas volumes are priced at the Houston Ship Channel hub.
此外,在第三季馬特洪峰 (Matterhorn) 投入使用後,我們看到瓦哈 (Waha) 的價格有所回落,儘管幅度很短暫,並且我們預計,在二疊紀殘餘天然氣管道完成例行維護後,本季度晚些時候阿爾卑斯高地 (Alpine High) 的減產量將恢復。提醒一下,我們的權益殘餘氣體量是以休士頓航道樞紐定價的。
On the hedging side, we are 75% hedged on our remaining 2024 expected gross profit, and for calendar year 2025, we have hedged approximately 65% across our exposures. Our pipeline transportation segment reflects the year-over-year benefit from the PHP expansion in Delaware Link and now the increased ownership in Epic Crude.
在對沖方面,我們對 2024 年剩餘的預期毛利進行了 75% 的對沖,而對於 2025 日曆年,我們對所有風險敞口進行了約 65% 的對沖。我們的管線運輸部門反映了 Delaware Link 的 PHP 擴張以及現在 Epic Crude 所有權的增加所帶來的年比收益。
Turning to our capital expenditures guidance, we fine-tuned our range to $270 million to $290 million for the full year. We have continued our strong track record of maintaining cost discipline, which gave us the confidence to tighten the range.
談到我們的資本支出指引,我們將全年範圍微調至 2.7 億美元至 2.9 億美元。我們繼續保持了維持成本紀律的良好記錄,這使我們有信心縮小範圍。
Our full year estimate continues to reflect capital needs for the construction of Kings Landing 1, the new Eddy to Culberson County pipeline, pre-FID work for an expansion at Kings Landing, including an associated acid gas injection well. The growth projects in Eddy and Lea Counties, integration efforts and growth and maintenance CapEx associated with the existing Texas and New Mexico systems.
我們的全年預測繼續反映出 Kings Landing 1 建設的資本需求、新的 Eddy 至 Culberson County 管道,以及 Kings Landing 擴建的 FID 前工作,包括相關的酸性氣體注入井。埃迪縣和利亞縣的成長項目、整合工作以及與現有德州和新墨西哥州系統相關的成長和維護資本支出。
Like Jamie, I'm impressed by our team's dedication and focus on execution as we strive to hit our $1 billion adjusted EBITDA goal. We continue to deliver on our commitment to maximizing shareholder value. We look forward to sharing what next year has in store for Kinetik when we issue full year 2025 financial guidance with our fourth quarter earnings in February.
就像 Jamie 一樣,我們在努力實現 10 億美元調整後 EBITDA 目標的過程中,團隊的奉獻精神和對執行的關注給我留下了深刻的印象。我們將繼續履行最大化股東價值的承諾。我們期待在 2 月發布 2025 年全年財務指引和第四季收益時,與大家分享 Kinetik 明年的計畫。
And with that, I would like to open the line for Q&A.
現在,我想開始問答環節。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Neel Mitra, Bank of America.
(操作員指示) Neel Mitra,美國銀行。
Neel Mitra - Analyst
Neel Mitra - Analyst
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. It seems like you're doing a lot more with sour gas treating as well as CO2 treating and then some sequestration that would all add to margin. How should we think about when we think about the G&P fees, how each of those components adds to the fee you're getting and maybe the knock-on effect, if that's allowing you to compete for upcoming acreage dedications that are expiring off of other producer systems?
你好。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。看起來你們在酸性氣體處理和二氧化碳處理方面做了更多工作,然後進行了一些封存,這些都會增加利潤。當我們考慮 G&P 費用時,我們應該如何思考,這些組成部分如何影響您所獲得的費用,以及可能產生的連鎖反應,如果這允許您競爭其他生產者係統中即將到期的土地使用權?
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Neel, its Jamie. I'll start. I'm sure Trevor or Chris Kendrick will jump in, too. Yes. As we've talked about before, both when we announced the Durango transaction back in May and then obviously in the second quarter, and I think all the intervening period with all the interactions that we've had with investors, there's a material difference between what we see as the average -- I would say, the average gross fee on the southern end of our system to the Delaware South, if you will, versus the overall rates that we see Delaware North.
尼爾,我是傑米。我先開始。我確信 Trevor 或 Chris Kendrick 也會加入。是的。正如我們之前談到的,無論是在我們 5 月宣布 Durango 交易時,還是在第二季度,我認為在我們與投資者進行的所有互動期間,我們所看到的平均水平之間存在實質性差異——我想說,我們的系統南端到特拉華州南部的平均總費用與我們看到的特拉華州北部的總體費率之間存在實質性差異。
So if the distinction is $1, $1.10, low pressure all the way through, right? So you've got to make it apples-to-apples, not a high-pressure deal, but low pressure all the way through on the processing side with your typical fixed recoveries and whatever else as far as the incremental margin capture. The distinction between that and what we advertised and said around Durango was average margins almost $1.80. So that will give you a sense.
因此,如果差價是 1 美元、1.10 美元,那麼壓力就會一直很小,對嗎?因此,您必須使其公平對待,而不是高壓交易,而是在整個處理方面採用低壓,並採用典型的固定回收率以及其他任何有關增量利潤獲取的方法。這與我們在杜蘭戈宣傳和所說的內容的區別是平均利潤率接近 1.80 美元。這樣你就會有種感覺。
Everything is a stair step, gas that doesn't hit the typical suite of a quality spec of maybe 4 ppm, maybe very low inerts. It's -- as you ramp up and you go 10, 20, 50, 100 parts and then you go all the way up into the most extreme sour and you can have thousands of parts per million, then you obviously are just increasing the overall rate structure.
一切都是階梯式的,氣體沒有達到典型的 4 ppm 質量規格,或許是惰性氣體,品質很低。這是 — — 隨著你逐漸增加,達到 10、20、50、100 個部分,然後一路上升到最極端的酸性,你可以得到每百萬分之幾千,那麼你顯然只是增加了整體費率結構。
So it's a sort of stair-step approach. Hopefully, that gives you a sense of the distinction. But it's -- you provide a lot more services on the sour gas side, and that's whether you're using your acid gas injection wells, which we have three. That obviously provides both incremental OpEx, but obviously incremental margin for us.
這是一種階梯式的方法。希望這能讓您感受到其中的差異。但是,您在酸性氣體方面提供更多的服務,那就是無論您是否使用酸性氣體注入井,我們有三個。這顯然為我們提供了增量營運成本,但顯然也提供了增量利潤。
Neel Mitra - Analyst
Neel Mitra - Analyst
Perfect. Second question, you've made a lot of progress with your partners on Epic. It seems like, first, you probably want to maybe extend some of those contracts. From my understanding, some of them are still on spot rates or short-term contracts. But what would we need to see in order for you to open season an expansion? And if you were to do so, what would be the timing of it if we were to get through some of those steps?
完美的。第二個問題,您與 Epic 的合作夥伴已經取得了很大進展。首先,看起來您可能想要延長其中一些合約。據我了解,其中一些仍然採用現貨價格或短期合約。但是,為了讓你開啟一個擴張的賽季,我們需要看到什麼呢?如果您要這麼做,如果我們要完成其中一些步驟,那麼時間安排是怎樣的?
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So I think as far as on the Epic expansion, it's a topic that comes up all the time, both with the partners and with the management team. You're right, there are a series of there are some -- the contract portfolio is both some long term, some medium term and some shorter term almost buy sells. That changes, obviously fairly dramatically with the new very long-dated, very large contract or contracts from Diamondback, right, for one-third of the capacity of the pipe today.
因此,我認為就 Epic 擴張而言,這是一個合作夥伴和管理團隊一直在討論的議題。你說得對,有一系列的──合約組合既有長期的,也有中期的,還有短期的,幾乎都是買賣。隨著 Diamondback 簽訂新的非常長期、非常大的合同,這種情況顯然發生了相當大的變化,這些合約佔了目前管道容量的三分之一。
We ourselves are going to take a very -- a modest amount of transport space on that pipeline, which will obviously be advantageous for our crude gathering customers. So I think what it requires is you will see the decision to expand manifest itself in the MEH diff and the amount of commercial success to replace the shorter-term buy sells with, again, medium and longer-term firm contracts because buy-sells will always be there.
我們自己將在該管道上佔用非常少量的運輸空間,這顯然對我們的原油收集客戶有利。因此,我認為它需要的是,你會看到擴張的決定體現在 MEH 差異和商業成功的數量中,以中長期固定合約取代短期買賣,因為買賣永遠存在。
They are typically the domain of the marketers, of which there are many, the Mcuriers, the gunvores, the trappis, et cetera. They will always want available access, particularly available access to an export market, and obviously, Corpus is ideally situated for many different reasons to do so.
它們通常是行銷人員的領域,其中有很多,如 Mcuriers、gunvores、trappis 等等。他們總是希望獲得市場准入,尤其是出口市場的准入,而 Corpus 顯然因多種原因而具有理想的地理位置。
Even more so now, I think they're actually finishing the Phase 2 of the dredging with the board of Corpus Christi right now, which will obviously be ideal as it relates to overall drafts and therefore, what we can actually load and unload the size of vessels that we can get in. So I do think, it's not a question of if on the expansion.
更重要的是,我認為現在他們實際上正在與科珀斯克里斯蒂委員會一起完成疏浚的第二階段,這顯然是理想的,因為它與整體吃水有關,因此,我們實際上可以裝卸我們可以進入的船隻的大小。所以我確實認為,這不是一個是否擴張的問題。
It's a question of when because it's very clear that I think this is the pipeline best positioned, and I think the only remaining pipeline positioned to expand, relative to the other pipes out of the Permian on the crude side.
這是一個時間問題,因為很明顯我認為這是最佳定位的管道,而且我認為相對於二疊紀原油方面的其他管道,這是唯一剩下的定位可以擴展的管道。
Neel Mitra - Analyst
Neel Mitra - Analyst
Perfect. Thank you for the time. Appreciate all the answers.
完美的。感謝您抽出時間。感謝所有答案。
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No problem, Neel. Thank you.
沒問題,尼爾。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Michael Blum, Wells Fargo.
富國銀行的麥可布魯姆。
Michael Blum - Analyst
Michael Blum - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Can you expand a little -- can you just expand on the factors that drove the outperformance this quarter? How much of that beat was marketing on the Waha spreads or other factors and how sustainable that is into 2025?
謝謝。大家早安。您能否稍微詳細說明一下—您能否詳細說明一下推動本季業績優異的因素?這種超出預期的表現有多少是來自 Waha 利差行銷或其他因素,以及這種表現在 2025 年的可持續性如何?
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So look, it's a really interesting question. I'll sort of break it down into the following. If you recall back when we did the very first call for the year for our year-end 2023 results and our guidance that we initiated for 2024, we talked a lot about the increase in maintenance capital that we were actually spending for this current year.
所以看,這是一個非常有趣的問題。我將把它分解成以下幾部分。如果您還記得,當我們第一次召開 2023 年年終業績電話會議以及為 2024 年制定的指導方針時,我們談論了很多關於我們今年實際支出的維護資本增加的問題。
In large part, it was both related to compressor top end, so overhauls as well as changing out Mulsive beds, which are really almost like those silica beads that you find when you get any package, whether it's from Amazon or anything else. It's basically -- it's like an absorption of drying agent. So we changed those out in the context, I think, of diamond Matt walls on. I think it was the first time since those trains had gone in service.
在很大程度上,這都與壓縮機頂端有關,因此需要大修以及更換 Mulsive 床,它們實際上幾乎就像您在收到任何包裹時發現的那些矽珠,無論是來自亞馬遜還是其他任何東西。它基本上——就像乾燥劑的吸收。因此,我認為,我們在鑽石啞光牆的背景下改變了這些。我認為這是這些列車投入運作以來的第一次。
The overall performance on recoveries across the system as a result of the multer bed change-outs has been exceptional. We operate a business with a contract portfolio that has fixed recoveries, whether you're in rejection or in recovery. And therefore, the outperformance drops to our bottom line.
由於多張床的更換,整個系統的整體恢復表現非常出色。我們經營的業務具有合約組合,具有固定的恢復時間,無論您是被拒絕還是恢復。因此,優異表現會下降至我們的底線。
And I can just say the operations guys have really done an exceptional job. And that was a -- I would say, just given the size of the 2 Bcf a day and the multi complexes that you're dealing with, that outperformance is a meaningful contributor.
我只能說,營運人員確實做得非常出色。那是 — — 我想說,考慮到每天 20 億立方英尺的規模和你正在處理的多種綜合體,這種優異的表現是一個有意義的貢獻者。
Yes. We have open space. We always said this, we had open space on PHP. In large part, we took incremental space on the expansion that obviously, over time, as our customers increase production, that space would obviously get filled up because our first need and first call for that service is to provide that option for our customers. We benefited in the first part of this year because of the very large spreads.
是的。我們有開放空間。我們總是這麼說,我們在 PHP 上有開放空間。在很大程度上,我們在擴展上佔用了增量空間,顯然,隨著時間的推移,隨著我們的客戶增加產量,該空間顯然會被填滿,因為我們對該服務的首要需求和首要要求是為我們的客戶提供該選項。由於利差非常大,我們在今年上半年受益匪淺。
However, don't lose sight of this. We will always have PHP space, and when Waha goes really, really negative, between Matt and Anne and Chris Kendrick and the commercial team, we run our plants in full recovery because you basically change the ethane from being in the natural gas stream into the NGL stream.
然而,不要忽視這一點。我們將始終擁有 PHP 空間,當 Waha 變得非常非常負面時,在 Matt 和 Anne 以及 Chris Kendrick 和商業團隊之間,我們將完全恢復運行我們的工廠,因為您基本上將乙烷從天然氣流轉變為 NGL 流。
If that creates incremental space because we own this PHP space, this is all ours between what Chris Evans and Anne and Chris Kendrick and Tyler and Trevor and Ross, they all do is we look to optimize that space. We look at this multiple times a day. We look on a predictive basis. We look on a then current day basis. We are always looking to optimize it, working in conjunction with operations.
如果這創造了增量空間,因為我們擁有這個 PHP 空間,這都是我們的,Chris Evans、Anne、Chris Kendrick、Tyler、Trevor 和 Ross 之間,他們所做的就是我們希望優化這個空間。我們每天都會看這個問題好幾次。我們以預測為基礎來看。我們以當時的現狀為基礎來看。我們始終致力於優化它,並與營運部門合作。
So I don't think it's correct to maybe suggest that this is some sort of onetime benefit. At the end of the day, we'll create this optimization. And that's part of the overall portfolio just given the size of our business, and that will continue. It may not be as pronounced at certain times versus others, but it will always be there.
因此,我認為認為這只是某種一次性福利是不對的。最終,我們將實現這項優化。考慮到我們的業務規模,這只是整體投資組合的一部分,而且這種情況將會持續下去。在某些時候,它可能不像其他時候那麼明顯,但它將永遠存在。
So I do think that they are certainly two of your contributors. OpEx was an exceptional performance. I think we obviously had the benefit also of one quarter of Durango, so that obviously helped and then obviously, on the pipeline transportation side, we had multitude.
因此我確實認為他們確實是您的兩位貢獻者。OpEx 的表現十分優異。我認為我們顯然也受益於杜蘭戈的四分之一,所以這顯然有幫助,然後顯然,在管道運輸方面,我們擁有許多優勢。
When everyone is running in recovery because you have negative Waha, well, Shin Oak is running literally at, I would say, probably above capacity. I mean there is -- literally, it is running so full, it's almost going to burst, not literally, don't take that figuratively, but just in the context of just it's running completely full.
當每個人都在恢復中運行時,因為你有負面的 Waha,那麼,Shin Oak 的運行速度實際上,我想說,可能超出了容量。我的意思是——確實,它運行得太滿,幾乎要爆炸了,不是字面意思,不要從比喻的角度去理解,而是在它完全滿載運行的背景下。
Then in the context of PHP, where it from a fuel standpoint, and Chris Kendrick can tell you this, from a fuel standpoint, it prices at Waha. So if Waha is incredibly negative, your fuel cost, when you think about your rate plus fuel to the pipeline is lower. So you have great outperformance, and then obviously, at the back end, we had the increase in our EPIC crude.
然後在 PHP 的背景下,從燃料的角度來看,Chris Kendrick 可以告訴你,從燃料的角度來看,它的價格是 Waha。因此,如果 Waha 非常為負,那麼當您考慮您的費率加上管道燃料時,您的燃料成本就會較低。因此,您擁有出色的表現,然後顯然,在後端,我們的 EPIC 原油價格有所上漲。
So I want to say it's a multitude of factors. It's not just one, but this is the benefit of having a risk really diversified business where there are so many compensating factors that things can look better -- we can optimize our system as we see conditions present themselves.
所以我想說,這是一個有很多因素造成的。這不只是其中之一,但這是擁有風險真正多樣化業務的好處,因為其中存在許多補償因素,可以使情況變得更好——我們可以根據情況的出現來優化我們的系統。
Michael Blum - Analyst
Michael Blum - Analyst
Perfect. Thanks for that. Maybe I know you're not giving '25 guidance today, but maybe you could just speak to the trajectory of CapEx for next year? What is that going to look like and maybe some of the building blocks to get there? Thanks.
完美的。謝謝。也許我知道您今天不會提供 25 年的指導,但也許您可以談談明年的資本支出趨勢?它將是什麼樣子以及實現它所需的一些基本要素是什麼?謝謝。
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So I think, Michael, as I think we've talked to you and talked to other analysts and investors. We have said, look, think about it from a -- if you're going to think about an overall range, $250 million to $400 million, that sort of range. And we said, look, as you think about next year, you'd be the upper end of that range.
所以我認為,邁克爾,我們已經和你談過了,也和其他分析師和投資者談過了。我們說過,看,想想看──如果你要考慮一個總體範圍,2.5 億美元到 4 億美元,就是這個範圍。我們說,看,當你想到明年時,你就會處於該範圍的上限。
That may also be the case depending upon the timing on Kings Landing as well into '26, that's Kingslanding 2, right? So this is the pre-FID work, long lead critical path items that we've done. And our viewpoint is, I think on the EBITDA, look, I think we've said very consistently, we're almost to the midpoint, 20% year-on-year increase.
這也可能是取決於《君臨》的時間安排,以及 '26 年,那是《君臨 2》,對嗎?這是我們完成的 FID 前的工作以及長期關鍵路徑專案。我們的觀點是,就 EBITDA 而言,我認為我們一直非常一致地表示,我們幾乎達到了中間點,即同比增長 20%。
We've said this is a business that between '25 and '27 on a compound annual growth rate should be 10%, 12%-plus. That's how you think about it, and that's without, as Trevor would tell me, breaking a sweat, and he's a good runner. So he doesn't sweat that much.
我們說過,這個業務在25年至27年之間的複合年增長率應該會達到10%到12%以上。這就是你的想法,正如特雷弗告訴我的,他沒有流汗,而且他是個優秀的跑者。所以他出汗不那麼多。
So it's I really do think that it's a context of the business is really, really designed for a tremendous inflection in growth from here on out. So you've got that top line growth, and I think we continue to have the very focused cost discipline on the capital side.
所以我確實認為,從現在起,這種業務環境確實是為了實現巨大的成長而設計的。因此,您獲得了營收成長,我認為我們將繼續在資本方面嚴格控製成本。
Michael Blum - Analyst
Michael Blum - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No problem.
沒問題。
Operator
Operator
Jacqueline Koletas, Goldman Sachs.
高盛的傑奎琳·科萊塔斯(Jacqueline Koletas)。
Jacqueline Koletas - Analyst
Jacqueline Koletas - Analyst
Hi. Good morning. Thank you so much for taking my questions. First, I just want to start on the pipeline connector. So is there optionality to expand that beyond the 150 Mcf a day announced? And how has future connectivity impacted commercial conversations from here? And beyond that pipeline connector, are there other connections that you can build or potentially buy from here to further connect the North and South Delaware systems?
你好。早安.非常感謝您回答我的問題。首先,我只想從管道連接器開始。那麼,除了宣布的每天 1.5 億立方英尺以外,還有沒有其他選擇?未來的連結性將如何影響現在的商業對話?除了管道連接器之外,還有其他連接可以建造或從這裡購買,以進一步連接北特拉華系統和南特拉華系統嗎?
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. Jackie, you get the price. Don't keep going on because you got a lot -- there's a lot. There's a lot in there that you've just gone through in your 60 seconds. So let me start at the top. (laughter)
好的。傑基,你明白價格了。不要繼續下去,因為你已經擁有很多——還有很多。這裡面有很多內容是你在這 60 秒內經歷的。那麼讓我從頭開始。(笑聲)
On the connector side, greater than 150 that we can basically get on the Eddy County. But that can grow, which is the question you asked, we can increase that with additional boost compression at the Sierra Grande site to have that in excess of between 260 million and 300 million cubic feet a day drawing or draining out of Eddy County, that's a big deal.
在連接器方面,我們基本上可以在 Eddy County 上獲得超過 150 個。但這個數字可能會成長,這就是您所問的問題,我們可以透過在 Sierra Grande 站點增加增壓壓縮來增加這個數字,使每天從 Eddy County 抽取或排出的水量超過 2.6 億至 3 億立方英尺,這可是件大事。
I got to say, I know that this may have surprised people. We've been talking about the desire to connect Durango, the north to the south and creating that super system. And I really do think between the overall team here did a phenomenal job, engineering, ops, construction to come up with a plan that said, rather than move that idle 60-day cryo, why don't we do this? It's going to cost the same. You've already budgeted for it, it's already in your numbers in the Eddy County project. And it actually creates the connectivity.
我得說,我知道這可能會讓人們感到驚訝。我們一直在談論連接杜蘭戈、南北並創建超級系統的願望。我確實認為這裡的整個團隊做得非常出色,工程、運營、施工製定了一項計劃,即,與其移動閒置的 60 天低溫儲存庫,我們為什麼不這樣做呢?其成本是一樣的。您已經為其編入了預算,它已經包含在 Eddy County 項目的數字中了。它確實創建了連接。
And so when these guys go and talk to newborns -- all these other customers we've got in the north, and we say, Bingo, not only capital investment, but we now can take incremental volumes, that they're not on the massively sour side, but there's obviously some flexibility that we have. That's really array of sunshine for them in the context of their development plans because for so long, they've been capital starved with no egress, right? No midstream egress.
因此,當這些人去與新生兒交談時——我們在北方的所有其他客戶,我們說,Bingo,不僅是資本投資,而且我們現在可以增加數量,它們並不是非常糟糕,但顯然我們擁有一些靈活性。這對他們的發展計畫來說真是一片陽光,因為長期以來,他們一直缺乏資金,沒有出路,對嗎?沒有中途出口。
So I feel like this proposition, we knocked down the first of the big pillars, which was connect on the West, done. This is what this does. It's a massive game changer for this company. It's a massive game changer for our customers, and it really puts us in a position now to emphasize, okay, on the Lea County side, much more sour gas, as we know, where are the connections? How do we think about it? We said we would analyze connecting on the basis of new commercial opportunities.
所以我覺得這個提議,我們推倒了第一個大支柱,也就是連結西方,就完成了。這就是它的作用。這對這家公司來說是一個巨大的改變。這對我們的客戶來說是一個巨大的改變,現在我們確實需要強調的是,在 Lea 縣這邊,酸性氣體更多,但我們知道,這些連接在哪裡?我們該如何看待這個問題?我們說過,我們會根據新的商業機會來分析連結。
So we're keeping -- basically, we are continuing hard at work to finalize commercial opportunities that will ultimately result in us connecting on the Lea County side. So that would be on the East, and then you will have your super system. And that will be unique. It will be unique amongst our peers. And I think it will really provide us so much flexibility for optimization that really will position us, I think, tremendously going forward in the future.
因此,我們將繼續—基本上,繼續努力工作,敲定商業機會,最終實現我們在 Lea 縣的聯繫。所以那將在東部,然後你將擁有你的超級系統。這將是獨一無二的。它在我們的同行中是獨一無二的。我認為它確實為我們提供了許多優化的靈活性,這將使我們在未來的發展中佔據極大的優勢。
Chris Kendrick - Senior Vice President of Commercial
Chris Kendrick - Senior Vice President of Commercial
And Jackie, this is Chris. I think one other thing we didn't hit on is we expect Kings Landing to fill up pretty quickly. So we wanted to make sure we had an outlet for our customers as they continue to grow. This pipeline is that answer because we can get it on quickly.
傑基,這是克里斯。我認為我們沒有想到的另一件事是,我們預計君臨城很快就會擠滿人。因此,我們希望確保在客戶不斷成長的過程中,為他們提供銷售管道。這個管道就是答案,因為我們可以快速地完成它。
And second, this goes through an area where we're going to see significant gas growth over the next five years. So we think there's additional commercial upside where this pipeline will traverse. So strategically, it makes a lot of sense for Kinetik, and so we're excited to provide this outlet to connect the systems.
其次,未來五年內我們將看到該地區天然氣產量顯著成長。因此我們認為該管道穿越的地方將具有額外的商業價值。因此從戰略上來說,這對 Kinetik 來說非常有意義,因此我們很高興提供這個出口來連接系統。
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And it would be fair to say, as I look at Chris and the team, what goes into Durango is a mix of sweet and sour. You have both. So what you've really done here is you have the combined elements. This gives you the opportunity to separate them to free up sour gas treating and processing, which is much more complicated.
可以公平地說,當我看著克里斯和他的團隊時,杜蘭戈是甜蜜與酸澀的混合體。你們都有。所以你在這裡真正做的是將各個元素結合在一起。這使您有機會將它們分離,從而省去酸性氣體的處理和加工,這要複雜得多。
And it's not a case that anybody can basically go and treat and process sour gas if you don't have the right infrastructure. And you can obviously permit and build the right infrastructure, but it takes time. And you probably heard that in the context of whether it was Jim Teague talking about Pinon, multiple years to get this done.
如果沒有適當的基礎設施,並不是任何人都可以去處理和加工酸性氣體。顯然,您可以允許並建立正確的基礎設施,但這需要時間。您可能聽說過,Jim Teague 是否在談論 Pinon 時提到,需要花費數年時間才能完成這項工作。
So what we looked at our business when we said, hey, look, there's a bunch of sweet here. If we could separate that suite through Eddy County down into Culberson and bring it south, we leave more sour gas treating and processing up in the Durango system, which is, as I said, the more complicated, it's higher margin in the context of all the services that we have to provide, it really is a tremendous value proposition for the company.
所以當我們說,嘿,看,這裡有一堆甜蜜的東西時,我們看待我們的業務的方式是什麼。如果我們可以將這套設備通過埃迪縣分離到卡爾伯森並將其向南輸送,那麼我們會在杜蘭戈系統中留下更多的酸性氣體處理和加工,正如我所說的,這更複雜,在我們必須提供的所有服務的背景下,它的利潤更高,這對公司來說真的是一個巨大的價值主張。
Jacqueline Koletas - Analyst
Jacqueline Koletas - Analyst
Thank you. I appreciate the color there. And then just pivoting a little bit, you talked about it a little bit before an amendment mentioned some hedging in the year into '25. But you're able to benefit on open PHP capacity again and some benefits on continued Waha softness. What is your view on the commodity price environment for the fourth quarter and '25? And how quickly do you expect pricing to recover? And on those commodity swings, what is your timing expectations for the return of those Alpine High volumes?
謝謝。我很欣賞那裡的色彩。然後稍微轉變一下,在修正案提到在 25 年進行一些對沖之前,您已經稍微談論過這一點。但是您可以再次受益於開放的 PHP 容量以及持續的 Waha 柔軟度的一些好處。您對第四季和2025年的商品價格環境有何看法?您預計價格多久會恢復?針對這些商品波動,您對 Alpine High 產量回歸的時間預期是怎樣的?
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. So you referenced fourth quarter '25. I think you meant fourth quarter '24, just to confirm.
好的。所以你提到了25年第四季。我想你的意思是 24 年第四季度,只是為了確認。
Jacqueline Koletas - Analyst
Jacqueline Koletas - Analyst
Yes, sorry, fourth quarter '24.
是的,抱歉,24年第四季。
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. That's no problem. We just wanted to check as opposed to being -- giving you a prognostication as to what it might be a year out from now. So the short answer is cash today for Waha is negative $0.95. Hey, welcome to the third quarter again, it's same old, same old. Interestingly enough, December is $1.20 right now, positive, Positive, $1.20. That's more than enough to bring the Alpine High volumes back on.
是的。那沒問題。我們只是想檢查一下,而不是預測一年後的情況。因此,簡短的回答是,Waha 今日的現金為負 0.95 美元。嘿,歡迎再次來到第三季,還是老樣子。有趣的是,12 月的價格現在是 1.20 美元,正數,正數,1.20 美元。這足以讓 Alpine High 的音量重新恢復。
You can listen to the Alpine, I'm sure the Apache call in a couple of hours or 1.5 hours or whatever it is, but that's more than enough. This is all PDP, right? There's no new development in the context of Alpine High at this point.
您可以收聽阿爾卑斯山的聲音,我相信阿帕奇號的呼叫會在幾個小時或一個半小時後或其他時間進行,但這已經足夠了。這都是 PDP 吧?目前,阿爾卑斯高中的情況尚無新進展。
So I think our viewpoint is the basin is tight. So let's frame what tight means. We're going through some maintenance on PHP through 19 to 20, I'm looking at Kindrick. Matterhorn is full, like 2 Bcf a day, and we have negative Waha prices. What does that tell the audience about how tight this basin is? The overall lower decline curves, the increasing GORs that we're seeing, this gas needs egress.
所以我認為我們的觀點是盆地是緊密的。那麼讓我們來定義一下「緊張」的意思。我們將在 19 到 20 期間對 PHP 進行一些維護,我正在關注 Kindrick。馬特洪峰已滿,每天約有 20 億立方英尺,而我們的 Waha 價格為負。這告訴觀眾這個盆子有多緊?我們看到整體下降曲線越來越低,氣化率越來越高,這意味著氣體需要排出。
And so I think Waha is going to remain challenged. Yes, you've got Blackcomb. You've got the GCX expansion. Maybe the transfer team get over the finish line with Warrior Run. All of this is going to be needed just given the continued growth that we see on the gas side.
因此我認為 Waha 仍將面臨挑戰。是的,你到了 Blackcomb。您已獲得 GCX 擴充。也許轉會隊伍會憑藉「勇士奔跑」跨越終點線。鑑於我們看到的天然氣方面的持續增長,所有這些都是必要的。
The net beneficiaries, of course, in a weaker gas price environment on a hub basis are the integrated NGL players because everyone is running in full recovery as much as you can and trying to evacuate the ethane in the form of their NGLs.
當然,在天然氣價格較弱的環境中,淨受益者是綜合 NGL 參與者,因為每個人都在盡可能地全面恢復,並試圖以 NGL 的形式排出乙烷。
So I think our viewpoint is, look, we -- in our updated guidance, we said, look, it would be December, you'd start to see the return of the Alpine High volumes. I think our viewpoint is that gas prices will bounce around. I do think we'll see some positive Waha pricing. It's not. It's still a pretty big dip. I'm looking at Annie relative to ship and hub. It's crazy, like $1.20, $1.25. So there's plenty of money from the optimization standpoint to be made.
所以我認為我們的觀點是,看,我們 - 在我們更新的指導中,我們說,看,到 12 月,你就會開始看到 Alpine High 產量的回升。我認為我們的觀點是天然氣價格將會波動。我確實認為我們會看到一些積極的 Waha 定價。它不是。這仍然是一個相當大的下降。我正在觀察安妮相對於船舶和樞紐的位置。這太瘋狂了,例如 1.20 美元、1.25 美元。因此,從優化的角度來看,可以賺很多錢。
And as I said, that's what the team does, like we optimize this business every day working with the ops guys to come up with the right formula. So I think our viewpoint is, look, we're just going to we're just going to continue this trajectory. I think crude is going to remain pretty much range bound, $70. $70 in a cost environment that is controlled is still a good day for, I would say, almost universally for all of our producers.
正如我所說,這就是團隊所做的事情,例如我們每天都在與營運人員一起優化這項業務,以找到正確的解決方案。所以我認為我們的觀點是,看,我們只是要繼續這個軌跡。我認為原油價格仍將維持在 70 美元的區間波動。我想說,在成本可控的環境下,70 美元對我們幾乎所有生產商來說仍然是一個好日子。
Look at the efficiencies they continue to drive, look at the reductions in D&C costs. If they can get their overall LOE down and keep that managed, $70 as far as the WTI price, I think, is a good day at the office for them. So we feel pretty jazzed up by what's going on around us and particularly as it relates to not just right now for '24, but as we look out into '25 and beyond.
看看他們繼續推動的效率,看看 D&C 成本的降低。如果他們能夠降低整體 LOE 並保持可控,我認為,就 WTI 價格而言,70 美元對他們來說是一個好日子。因此,我們對周遭發生的事情感到非常興奮,尤其是因為它不僅與現在的2024年有關,而且與我們展望2025年及以後有關。
Jacqueline Koletas - Analyst
Jacqueline Koletas - Analyst
Great. That's it for me. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.\
偉大的。對我來說就是這樣了。太感謝了。非常感謝。
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No problem.
沒問題。
Operator
Operator
Burke Sansiviero, Wolfe Research.
伯克桑西維羅(Burke Sansiviero),沃爾夫研究公司。
Burke Sansiviero - Analyst
Burke Sansiviero - Analyst
Thanks for taking my questions. Just firstly, any impressions you have on the potential setback rules being considered in New Mexico and sort of how you're thinking about potential impacts for the Durango assets?
感謝您回答我的問題。首先,您對新墨西哥州正在考慮的潛在挫折規則有何看法,以及您如何看待它對杜蘭戈資產的潛在影響?
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I am so glad you asked this question because there is so much misinformation out there. So look, I saw this Reuters article, much like I'm sure many of you, I think everyone believed that this was some proposed legislation. That's not it at all. This is all about the New Mexico Legislative Finance Committee undertaking an economic study, an economic study, impact to the state regarding the cost of potential setbacks and the impact that would have on the state's revenue.
我很高興你問了這個問題,因為外面有很多錯誤訊息。所以看,我看到了這篇路透社的文章,就像我相信你們中的許多人一樣,我想每個人都相信這是某項擬議的立法。根本不是那樣。這是新墨西哥州立法財政委員會進行的一項經濟研究,該研究對該州的潛在挫折成本及其對州收入的影響。
So let's frame that for a second. The LSC study is the first time on record that publicly everyone's addressed there is a true legitimate real significant cost of potential setbacks. Look, our view is, unlike in other states where you've seen discussions on setbacks, there are a multitude of factors here that says it's different here, and here's why.
讓我們暫時這樣構思一下。LSC 的研究首次有記錄地表明,每個人都公開指出,潛在挫折確實會帶來合法、實際且重大的成本。我們的觀點是,與其他州討論挫折的情況不同,這裡有許多因素導致情況不同,原因如下。
Oil and gas sector represents as far as percentage to the overall state coffers budget, 50%. Oil and gas is the largest single employer in the state of New Mexico. The incomes for oil and gas workers is more than 2 times the state average median income for workers.
石油和天然氣產業佔整個國庫預算的 50%。石油和天然氣是新墨西哥州最大的單一雇主。石油和天然氣工人的收入是該州工人平均收入中位數的兩倍多。
New Mexico, unlike in other states, where you can have -- citizens can get a number of signatures and then get something basically across the line in the context of modifying state constitution. You do not have that legislative process at all in New Mexico. So groups of citizens that have a mechanism where they gather all these signatures to change the state's constitution does not exist in New Mexico.
新墨西哥州與其他州不同,在其他州,公民可以獲得一定數量的簽名,然後在修改州憲法的背景下獲得一些基本的東西。新墨西哥州根本沒有這樣的立法程序。因此,新墨西哥州並不存在能夠收集所有簽名來修改州憲法的公民團體。
It is clear in all the conversations that we've had and particularly now with the White House administration changing effective in January, the Democratic leadership and the governor will not support setback legislation. There is virtually no path to any bill, even if it eventuated. And as I said, right now, it is a study.
在我們進行的所有對話中,特別是現在白宮政府將於明年 1 月更換,很明顯,民主黨領導層和州長不會支持挫折立法。即使最終得以通過,幾乎不可能有任何法案。正如我所說,現在,這是一項研究。
And so our viewpoint, along with Permian Resources, EOG, Oxy, Conoco, and all of the other large oil and gas producers is we really think that this is just misinformation. I could say fake news, but it's in the context of how it's positioned. But it is a study, and it's the first time people got to see, and it has shocked a lot of politicians and regulators as to the potential impact that such a -- any type of framework could have on their overall state budgets and their overall finances.
因此,我們以及 Permian Resources、EOG、Oxy、Conoco 和所有其他大型石油和天然氣生產商的觀點是,我們確實認為這只是錯誤訊息。我可以說這是假新聞,但這取決於它的定位背景。但這只是一項研究,也是人們第一次看到它,它讓許多政客和監管者感到震驚,因為他們擔心這樣的任何類型的框架都可能對他們的整體國家預算和整體財政產生影響。
So hopefully, Burke, that answers the question. But I think, look, I listened to Tom Jordan last week at Caterra. He did a great job. I think we feel like this is not a story.
所以伯克,希望這能回答這個問題。但我想,看,我上週在 Caterra 聽過湯姆喬丹的演講。他幹得非常好。我想我們覺得這不是一個故事。
Burke Sansiviero - Analyst
Burke Sansiviero - Analyst
Thanks for that. Just for my follow-up, understanding that the dividend marks a positive inflection point for the company, how should we think about further dividend growth given 2025 is shaping out to be a higher CapEx year?
謝謝。只是為了後續的問題,我了解到股息標誌著公司的積極轉折點,考慮到 2025 年將成為資本支出更高的一年,我們應該如何看待進一步的股息成長?
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Look, I think our viewpoint is that, as we said in the prepared remarks, our capital allocation will be balanced, annual ratable dividend growth. So this was in the third quarter of November. Do you think about it towards this time next year, you shouldn't think about it earlier than that in the context of you're right, we're going to have a larger capital budget.
看,我認為我們的觀點是,正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣,我們的資本配置將是平衡的,每年按比例增長的股息。這是十一月第三季的情況。您是否會在明年這個時候考慮這個問題? 您不應該在那之前考慮這個問題,因為您是對的,我們將有更大的資本預算。
We're going to have great growth on the EBITDA side. But I do think that when we say annual ratable, Trevor is a man of his words. He means what he says, its annual ratable, and we will continue to grow it on a thoughtful, methodical basis.
我們的 EBITDA 方面將大幅成長。但我確實認為,當我們說到年度應稅收入時,特雷弗是一個言而有信的人。他說到做到,這是年度應稅收入,我們將繼續在深思熟慮、有條不紊的基礎上發展它。
Burke Sansiviero - Analyst
Burke Sansiviero - Analyst
Thanks for the time.
感謝您的時間。
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No problem.
沒問題。
Operator
Operator
Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.
摩根大通的傑里米·托內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Good morning, guys. This is [Bob Meddy] on for Jeremy. First one, I just had a clarifying question. I believe it was 170 million cubic feet per day curtailed in 3Q. And I think I might have heard 100 curtailed as of now, but I just wanted to clarify whether those volumes have returned or not.
大家早安。這是 [Bob Meddy] 為 Jeremy 主持的。首先,我只想澄清一個問題。我認為第三季每天的減產量是1.7億立方英尺。我認為到目前為止我可能已經聽說了 100 個被削減的消息,但我只是想澄清這些數量是否已經恢復。
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, I think you were hearing that. We said 100 million cubic feet per day curtailed on Durango. It's where we started. We said, listen, we had 100 million cubic feet a day when we first announced the transaction, it's still there. We had a growing DUC inventory. It's still there. That's what we were talking about in the context of the reason that Kings Landing 1 needs to be on and in service as quickly as it can.
不,我想你聽到了。我們說杜蘭戈每天的供水量減少 1 億立方英尺。這就是我們的起點。我們說,聽著,當我們第一次宣布交易時,我們每天的產量是 1 億立方英尺,現在仍然有這個數量。我們的 DUC 庫存不斷增加。它還在那裡。這就是我們在討論君臨城1號需要盡快投入使用的原因時所說的話。
Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yeah. Those aren't price-related shut-ins. We refer to them as shut-ins, not necessarily curtailments. They're not price related. It is associated with the lack of processing capacity at Delaware North.
是的。這些都不是與價格相關的兩難。我們稱之為“禁閉”,而不一定是“限制”。它們與價格無關。這與特拉華北部缺乏加工能力有關。
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, because it's full, right? I mean we run full every day on Durango.
是啊,因為滿了,對吧?我的意思是我們每天都在杜蘭戈滿載運行。
Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Trevor Howard - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Whereas the 170 million that we referred to refers to price-related curtailments generally in Delaware -- predominantly in Delaware South. And just to highlight, that is wellhead and that is a gross number. So it's a bit different than a number that is reported by one of our other customers.
而我們提到的 1.7 億美元指的是特拉華州普遍存在的價格相關削減——主要是特拉華州南部。需要強調的是,這是井口數字,而且是總數。因此,它與我們其他客戶報告的數字略有不同。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Perfect. Thank you. And then switching gears, just given some of the industry consolidation, I wanted to see updated thoughts that you guys have on Kinetiks' role against this landscape.
完美的。謝謝。然後換個話題,考慮到一些產業整合,我想看看你們對 Kinetiks 在此情況下的作用的最新看法。
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We swim with the largest fishes around, and we're not that big. So look, consolidation is -- it's going to continue. We all know that it's going to continue in the upstream space. It's going to continue in the midstream space. And I think we realize that our overall destiny in future is not necessarily for ours to control.
我們與周圍最大的魚一起游泳,但我們並沒有那麼大。所以看,整合將會持續下去。我們都知道它將在上游領域繼續發展。它將繼續在中游空間中發展。我想我們意識到我們未來的整體命運不一定由我們自己掌控。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Understood. Thank you.
明白了。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
There are currently no questions registered. (Operator Instructions) There are no additional questions waiting at this time. I'd like to pass the conference back over to our management team for any further remarks.
目前還沒有登記任何問題。(操作員指示)目前沒有其他問題。我想將會議交還給我們的管理團隊,以便他們可以發表進一步的評論。
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jamie Welch - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, everyone, for your time this morning. I know it's a busy time with everyone reporting, so I appreciate it. We'll see you shortly with the various tour dates that are coming up and the various conferences to go to year-end, and we look forward to continue our discussions. Thanks. Bye-bye.
感謝大家今天上午抽出時間。我知道現在每個人都在忙著報道,所以我很感激。我們很快就會與您見面,了解即將到來的各種巡迴日期和年底的各種會議,我們期待繼續我們的討論。謝謝。再見。
Operator
Operator
Thank you all. That concludes today's conference call. We appreciate your participation. We hope you all have a wonderful day, and you may now disconnect your lines.
謝謝大家。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。我們希望你們都能度過美好的一天,現在你們可以斷開連結了。