車美仕 (KMX) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 CarMax Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到 2022 財年第四季度 CarMax 收益發布電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. David Lowenstein, AVP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者，投資者關係副總裁 David Lowenstein 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Jess. Good morning. Thank you for joining our Fiscal 2022 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. I'm here today with Bill Nash, our President and CEO; Enrique Mayor-Mora, our Senior Vice President and CFO; and Jon Daniel, our Senior Vice President, CarMax Auto Finance Operations.

謝謝你，傑斯。早上好。感謝您參加我們的 2022 財年第四季度收益電話會議。今天我和我們的總裁兼首席執行官比爾·納什（Bill Nash）一起來到這裡； Enrique Mayor-Mora，我們的高級副總裁兼首席財務官；我們的 CarMax 汽車金融業務高級副總裁 Jon Daniel。

Let me remind you, our statements today regarding the company's future business plans, prospects and financial performance are forward-looking statements we make pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current knowledge and assumptions about future events that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. In providing projections and other forward-looking statements, the company disclaims any intent or obligation to update them.

讓我提醒您，我們今天關於公司未來業務計劃、前景和財務業績的陳述是我們根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款做出的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於管理層目前的知識以及對涉及風險和不確定性的未來事件的假設，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與我們的預期產生重大差異。在提供預測和其他前瞻性陳述時，公司不承擔任何更新它們的意圖或義務。

For additional information on important factors that could affect these expectations, please see the company's Form 8-K issued this morning in its annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended February 28, 2021, filed with the SEC. Should you have any follow-up questions after the call, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations department at (804) 747-0422, extension 7865.

有關可能影響這些預期的重要因素的更多信息，請參閱該公司今天上午在其向 SEC 提交的截至 2021 年 2 月 28 日的財政年度 10-K 表格年度報告中發布的 8-K 表格。如果您在通話後有任何後續問題，請隨時致電 (804) 747-0422，分機 7865 聯繫我們的投資者關係部。

Lastly, let me thank you in advance for asking only one question and getting back in the queue for more follow-ups. Bill?

最後，讓我提前感謝您只提出一個問題並重新排在隊列中以進行更多跟進。賬單？

Great. Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. For the fourth quarter of FY '22, our diversified business model delivered total sales of $7.7 billion, up 49% compared with last year's fourth quarter, driven by growth in average selling prices and wholesale volume gains partially offset by a decline in used units sold. Net earnings was $159.8 million for the fourth quarter and $1.2 billion for the fiscal year. Fourth quarter net earnings per diluted share was $0.98, down 23% from a year ago.

偉大的。謝謝你，大衛。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。在 22 財年第四季度，我們多元化的商業模式實現了 77 億美元的總銷售額，與去年第四季度相比增長了 49%，這主要得益於平均售價的增長和批發量的增長，部分抵消了二手銷量的下降.第四季度淨利潤為 1.598 億美元，本財年為 12 億美元。第四季度每股攤薄淨收益為 0.98 美元，同比下降 23%。

During our call in December, we shared that we were pleased with our sales performance at the start of the fourth quarter. However, we began to see pressure after the holidays that continued through the end of the quarter.

在 12 月的電話會議中，我們分享了我們對第四季度初的銷售業績感到滿意。然而，在持續到本季度末的假期之後，我們開始看到壓力。

In our retail business, total unit sales in the fourth quarter declined 5.2% and used unit comps were down 6.5% versus the fourth quarter last year. We believe several macro factors weighed on market-wide used car sales including consumer confidence, vehicle affordability, the Omicron COVID surge and lapping stimulus benefits paid in the prior year period.

在我們的零售業務中，與去年第四季度相比，第四季度的總單位銷售額下降了 5.2%，二手單位組合下降了 6.5%。我們認為，有幾個宏觀因素影響了整個市場的二手車銷售，包括消費者信心、車輛負擔能力、Omicron COVID 激增以及去年支付的研磨刺激福利。

While the fourth quarter used market was challenging, we are extremely proud of our accomplishments for fiscal 2022, and we believe we are well positioned for continued long-term success across our retail and wholesale business and CarMax Auto Finance. Our full year results reflect significant growth in sales, market share and earnings as well as a solid progress on our strategic initiatives. In fact, our retail market share growth this past year was the highest it has been during my tenure as CEO and is a reflection of our focus on delivering the most customer-centric experience in the industry.

儘管第四季度二手市場充滿挑戰，但我們為 2022 財年的成就感到非常自豪，我們相信我們已做好準備，在零售和批發業務以及 CarMax 汽車金融方面取得持續的長期成功。我們的全年業績反映了銷售額、市場份額和收益的顯著增長，以及我們的戰略舉措取得的堅實進展。事實上，我們過去一年的零售市場份額增長是我擔任首席執行官期間最高的一年，這反映了我們專注於提供業內最以客戶為中心的體驗。

Our market share data indicates that our nationwide share of 0 to 10-year-old vehicles grew 13% from 3.5% in calendar 2020 to 4.0% in 2021. Despite posting a decline in sales during our fiscal fourth quarter, comparing our results to published used vehicle SAAR data suggest that we continue to take share during the quarter. We believe we are well positioned to deliver profitable market share gains in any environment.

我們的市場份額數據表明，我們在全國范圍內 0 至 10 年車齡的汽車的份額從 2020 年的 3.5% 增長到 2021 年的 4.0%，增長了 13%。儘管我們在第四財季的銷售額有所下降，但將我們的結果與公佈的結果進行比較二手車 SAAR 數據表明我們在本季度繼續佔據份額。我們相信我們有能力在任何環境中實現可盈利的市場份額增長。

Across our retail and wholesale channels, we sold approximately 343,000 cars in total during the fourth quarter, up a 11% versus last year's period. For the fiscal year, we sold approximately 1.6 million retail and wholesale cars combined, up 38% year-over-year. We continue to be the nation's largest buyer of vehicles from consumers. We bought approximately 324,000 cars from consumers during the quarter, up 69% versus last year's period. For the fiscal year, we bought approximately 1.4 million cars from consumers, up 95% year-over-year. Self-sufficiency continued to be strong during the fourth quarter, remaining above 70%.

在我們的零售和批發渠道中，我們在第四季度共售出約 343,000 輛汽車，比去年同期增長 11%。本財年，我們共售出約 160 萬輛零售和批發汽車，同比增長 38%。我們仍然是美國最大的汽車消費者購買者。本季度我們從消費者那裡購買了大約 324,000 輛汽車，比去年同期增長 69%。在本財年，我們從消費者那裡購買了大約 140 萬輛汽車，同比增長 95%。自給自足在第四季度繼續保持強勁，保持在 70% 以上。

We reported fourth quarter retail gross profit per used unit of $2,195, up $109 per unit versus the prior year period. With used car prices remaining elevated, we chose to pass along some of our self-efficiency acquisition cost savings to consumers via lower prices. We believe we struck the right balance between covering inflationary costs, maintaining margin and keeping our vehicles more affordable. Our approach reflects our continuation of our commitment to doing what's right for the customer, which ultimately drives the growth of our business.

我們報告第四季度每使用單位的零售毛利潤為 2,195 美元，比去年同期增加 109 美元。在二手車價格持續高企的情況下，我們選擇通過更低的價格將我們節省的部分自效率購置成本轉嫁給消費者。我們相信，我們在支付通脹成本、保持利潤率和讓我們的車輛更實惠之間取得了適當的平衡。我們的方法反映了我們繼續致力於為客戶做正確的事情，這最終推動了我們業務的增長。

Wholesale unit sales were up 43.8% from the fourth quarter last year, and gross profit per unit was $1,191 compared to $990 a year ago. The strength in wholesale units was primarily driven by the ongoing success of our instant online appraisal offering. Wholesale valuations remained historically high during the quarter, which supported margin relative to the fourth quarter last year.

批發單位銷售額比去年第四季度增長 43.8%，每單位毛利潤為 1,191 美元，而去年同期為 990 美元。批發部門的實力主要是由我們即時在線評估產品的持續成功推動的。本季度批發估值仍處於歷史高位，與去年第四季度相比，這支撐了利潤率。

CarMax Auto Finance or CAF delivered income of $194 million, up from $188 million during the same period last year. In a few minutes, Jon will provide more detail on customer financing and CAF contributions, but at this point, I'd like to turn the call over to Enrique, who will provide more information on our fourth quarter financial performance. Enrique?

CarMax Auto Finance 或 CAF 的收入為 1.94 億美元，高於去年同期的 1.88 億美元。幾分鐘後，Jon 將提供有關客戶融資和 CAF 貢獻的更多詳細信息，但在這一點上，我想將電話轉給 Enrique，他將提供有關我們第四季度財務業績的更多信息。恩里克?

Thanks, Bill, and Good morning, everyone. Total gross profit was $711 million, up 11% from last year's fourth quarter. This increase was driven primarily by wholesale vehicle margin of $177 million, which was up 73%. The continued growth of the wholesale business is providing us with a strong gross profit lever. Used vehicle margin of $427 million was relatively flat over last year's fourth quarter, with the decrease in units largely offset by an increase in margin per unit.

謝謝，比爾，大家早上好。總毛利潤為 7.11 億美元，比去年第四季度增長 11%。這一增長主要是由 1.77 億美元的批發汽車利潤率推動的，增長了 73%。批發業務的持續增長為我們提供了強大的毛利潤槓桿。與去年第四季度相比，二手車利潤率為 4.27 億美元，相對持平，單位數量的下降在很大程度上被單位利潤的增加所抵消。

Other gross profit was $107 million, down 4% from last year's fourth quarter. This decrease reflected a $33 million decline in service profit, primarily due to the deleverage driven by the reduction in sales and the staffing and efficiency impacts from the Omicron COVID surge in the fourth quarter. Our intent continues to be to operate service-as-a-profit center, which from quarter-to-quarter can be impacted by sales trends and staffing disruptions.

其他毛利潤為 1.07 億美元，比去年第四季度下降 4%。這一下降反映了服務利潤下降了 3300 萬美元，這主要是由於第四季度銷售額下降以及 Omicron COVID 激增對人員配備和效率的影響所推動的去槓桿化。我們的意圖仍然是運營服務即利潤中心，該中心每季度都會受到銷售趨勢和人員中斷的影響。

Partially offsetting this decline was favorability in EPP and third-party finance fees as well as $20 million of margin contribution from Edmunds. EPP grew by $6.3 million or 5% year-over-year for the quarter, with penetration stable at approximately 60%. This favorability was driven by an $11 million year-over-year net benefit from the recognition of profit sharing revenues and adjustments to our cancellation reserves.

部分抵消了這一下降的是 EPP 和第三方融資費用以及 Edmunds 提供的 2000 萬美元的保證金貢獻。本季度 EPP 同比增長 630 萬美元或 5%，滲透率穩定在 60% 左右。這種有利因素是由於確認利潤分成收入和我們的取消準備金調整帶來的 1100 萬美元的同比淨收益。

Recall from our second quarter call in September, one of our providers implemented a timing shift in their performance period for profit sharing revenues. All of our providers now utilize the same timing, which aligns recognition as applicable to our fourth quarter.

回想一下我們在 9 月份的第二季度電話會議，我們的一家供應商在其業績期間實施了時間轉移，以獲取利潤分享收入。我們所有的供應商現在都使用相同的時間，這與我們第四季度的認可一致。

Third-party finance fees improved by $4.7 million with income of $1.8 million, compared to a cost of $2.9 million last year. This improvement was driven by lower Tier 3 volume compared with last year's fourth quarter.

第三方財務費用增加了 470 萬美元，收入為 180 萬美元，而去年的成本為 290 萬美元。與去年第四季度相比，Tier 3 交易量較低，推動了這一改善。

On the SG&A front, expenses for the fourth quarter increased to $621 million, up 23% from the prior year's quarter due to continued investment in our strategic initiatives and in marketing, the consolidation of Edmunds and growth costs related to the increase in appraisal buys, new stores and customer support at our Customer Experience Centers, or CECs. SG&A as a percent of gross profit deleveraged to 87.3% from 79% during the fourth quarter last year. This deleverage was primarily due to the decline in sales that occurred in the quarter.

在 SG&A 方面，由於對我們的戰略計劃和市場營銷的持續投資、Edmunds 的整合以及與評估購買增加相關的增長成本，第四季度的支出增加到 6.21 億美元，比去年同期增長 23%，在我們的客戶體驗中心或 CEC 開設新店並提供客戶支持。 SG&A 佔毛利潤的百分比從去年第四季度的 79% 下降至 87.3%。這種去槓桿化主要是由於本季度發生的銷售額下降。

The increase in SG&A dollars over last year was mainly due to 3 factors. First, a $43 million increase in total compensation and benefits driven by our continued strong ramp in staffing, including proactive staffing in anticipation of tax season and wage increases. Additionally, we had a $16 million increase in annual bonus-related compensation plus the inclusion of Edmunds' payroll this quarter versus a year ago. Partially offsetting this increase was a $42 million decrease in stock-based compensation.

SG&A 美元比去年增加主要是由於 3 個因素。首先，由於我們的人員配置持續強勁增長，包括預期稅收季節和工資增長的積極人員配置，總薪酬和福利增加了 4300 萬美元。此外，與一年前相比，本季度的年度獎金相關薪酬加上埃德蒙茲的工資單增加了 1600 萬美元。部分抵消這一增長的是基於股票的薪酬減少了 4200 萬美元。

Second, a $40 million increase in other overhead. The primary drivers of this increase include investments to advance our technology platforms and strategic initiatives as well as growth-related costs.

其次，其他管理費用增加了 4000 萬美元。這一增長的主要驅動力包括投資以推進我們的技術平台和戰略計劃以及與增長相關的成本。

Third, a $19 million increase in advertising expense through our ongoing plan to drive customer acquisition and amplify the CarMax brand by continuing to build awareness of our omnichannel offerings.

第三，通過我們持續提高全渠道產品知名度來推動客戶獲取和擴大 CarMax 品牌的計劃，廣告費用增加了 1900 萬美元。

For the full year, SG&A as a percent of gross profit was 70.7%, leveraging approximately 1 point over last year's percentage of 71.6%. Our approach to SG&A and costs heading into next year remains consistent. We will continue to invest in our business. At the same time, we remain committed to ensuring that we are efficient and effective in our spend, and we continue to target areas of focus that we expect will deliver results over time.

全年，SG&A 佔毛利潤的百分比為 70.7%，比去年的 71.6% 高出約 1 個百分點。我們對 SG&A 和進入明年的成本的方法保持一致。我們將繼續投資於我們的業務。與此同時，我們仍然致力於確保我們的支出高效且有效，並且我們將繼續瞄准我們期望隨著時間的推移會取得成果的重點領域。

We expect to require an increase beyond the 5% to 8% range of gross profit growth to lever in FY '23. This is largely driven by the timing of strategic investments and growth-related costs as well as heightened inflationary pressures. While we expect to remain in investment mode over the next few years, we expect our leverage point to go back down after FY '23. Our capital allocation philosophy remains consistent. We will continue to invest in our core business, consider new growth opportunities through investments, partnerships or acquisitions and return excess capital to our shareholders.

我們預計需要增加超過 5% 至 8% 的毛利潤增長范圍才能在 23 財年發揮槓桿作用。這主要受戰略投資時機和增長相關成本以及通脹壓力加劇的驅動。雖然我們預計未來幾年仍將保持投資模式，但我們預計我們的槓桿點將在 23 財年之後回落。我們的資本配置理念始終如一。我們將繼續投資於我們的核心業務，通過投資、合作或收購考慮新的增長機會，並將多餘的資本返還給我們的股東。

In regard to our share repurchase program, we repurchased approximately 872,000 shares in the quarter for approximately $102 million. For the full year, we repurchased approximately 4.5 million shares for $561.6 million, and as of March 31, 2022, we had $721.7 million of authorizations remaining. As communicated today, our Board of Directors has expanded our share repurchase authority by $2 billion with no expiration time line. The Board's authorization reflects CarMax's ongoing commitment to long-term shareholder value creation through growth and return of capital.

關於我們的股票回購計劃，我們在本季度以約 1.02 億美元回購了約 872,000 股股票。全年，我們以 5.616 億美元的價格回購了約 450 萬股股票，截至 2022 年 3 月 31 日，我們還剩下 7.217 億美元的授權。正如今天所傳達的，我們的董事會已將我們的股票回購權限擴大了 20 億美元，沒有到期期限。董事會的授權反映了 CarMax 通過增長和資本回報創造長期股東價值的持續承諾。

For capital expenditures, we anticipate approximately $500 million in FY '23. This increase in spend is driven by long-term growth capacity initiatives for auction, sales and production facilities in addition to continued investments in technology. In FY '23, we plan to open 10 new locations, including our first 3 stores in the New York City metro market. Our extensive nationwide footprint and logistics network continue to be a competitive advantage for CarMax, and we remain committed to an appropriate level of investment on these differentiated assets.

對於資本支出，我們預計 23 財年約為 5 億美元。除了對技術的持續投資外，這種支出的增長還受到拍賣、銷售和生產設施的長期增長能力計劃的推動。在 23 財年，我們計劃開設 10 個新地點，包括我們在紐約市地鐵市場的前 3 家門店。我們廣泛的全國足跡和物流網絡繼續成為 CarMax 的競爭優勢，我們仍然致力於對這些差異化資產進行適當的投資。

Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Jon.

現在，我想把電話轉給喬恩。

Thanks, Enrique, and Good morning, everyone. Our CarMax Auto Finance business delivered strong results once again. For the fourth quarter, CAF's penetration net of 3-day payoffs was 41% compared with 43.5% last year. Tier 2 increased to 23.7% of used unit sales compared with 21% last year, and Tier 3 accounted for 6.7% of sales compared with 9.5% a year ago. Year-over-year reduction in CAF's penetration is attributed to a larger percentage of customers coming in with outside financing.

謝謝，恩里克，大家早上好。我們的 CarMax 汽車金融業務再次取得強勁業績。第四季度，CAF 的 3 天收益淨滲透率為 41%，而去年為 43.5%。第 2 級從去年的 21% 增加到 23.7%，第 3 級佔銷售的 6.7%，而一年前為 9.5%。 CAF 滲透率的同比下降歸因於更大比例的客戶通過外部融資進入。

Our Tier 2 partners continue to provide highly competitive credit offers as they compete for additional volume within the CarMax channel. These strong offers, along with the decrease in conversion in the lower portion of the credit spectrum driven by higher average selling prices and corresponding monthly payments, contributed to the swap and penetration between Tiers 2 and 3.

我們的 2 級合作夥伴繼續提供極具競爭力的信貸優惠，因為他們在 CarMax 渠道內競爭額外的銷量。這些強勁的報價，以及由較高的平均售價和相應的每月付款驅動的較低部分信貸範圍的轉換減少，促成了第 2 層和第 3 層之間的互換和滲透。

During this year's fourth quarter, CAF's net loans originated was nearly $2.1 billion. The weighted average contract rate charged to new customers was 8.2%, down from 8.5% a year ago and 8.3% in the third quarter. The difference in APR is primarily a result of the credit mix of customers booking with CAF.

今年第四季度，CAF 的淨貸款來源接近 21 億美元。向新客戶收取的加權平均合同費率為 8.2%，低於去年同期的 8.5% 和第三季度的 8.3%。 APR 的差異主要是客戶通過 CAF 預訂的信用組合的結果。

CAF income for the quarter was $194 million, an increase of 3% or $6 million from the same period last year. Total interest margin increased $64 million, driven by $42 million in higher interest and fee income from our continued growth in receivables and $22 million in lower interest expense from the past ABS deals that continue to provide value over time. This improvement in CAF's margin and the growth in average managed receivables more than offset a substantial increase in the provision for loan losses, which was a more normalized $54.4 million in the current year's fourth quarter versus $4.6 million in the prior year's fourth quarter.

本季度 CAF 收入為 1.94 億美元，比去年同期增長 3% 或 600 萬美元。總息差增加了 6400 萬美元，原因是我們的應收賬款持續增長帶來了 4200 萬美元的利息和費用收入增加，以及過去 ABS 交易隨著時間的推移繼續提供價值而降低了 2200 萬美元的利息支出。 CAF 利潤率的提高和平均管理應收賬款的增長抵消了貸款損失準備金的大幅增加，與去年第四季度的 460 萬美元相比，今年第四季度的貸款損失準備金更正常化為 5440 萬美元。

In the prior year's fourth quarter, the provision for loan losses benefited from the continued reduction in the reserve that was established at the start of the COVID pandemic. The current quarter's provision of $54 million resulted in an ending reserve balance of $433 million or 2.77% of managed receivables. This is largely consistent with the 2.75% at the end of the third quarter and includes a 3 basis point adjustment for additional Tier 2 and Tier 3 volume originated by CAF.

在上一年的第四季度，貸款損失準備金受益於 COVID 大流行開始時建立的準備金的持續減少。本季度撥備 5400 萬美元導致期末準備金餘額為 4.33 億美元，佔管理應收賬款的 2.77%。這與第三季度末的 2.75% 基本一致，其中包括對 CAF 發起的額外二級和三級交易量的 3 個基點調整。

I also want to take the opportunity to highlight a few of the accomplishments made since our last call regarding our online finance experience. As a reminder, nearly 2/3 of our customers begin their financing process on carmax.com, applying for credit on any vehicle in our inventory or simply a requested dollar amount. Our unique finance-based shopping engine, available to most of our customers, allows for multiple lenders to decision a single customer or co-applicants on our entire inventory to provide a full suite of personalized decisions available at the consumer's fingertips. This tool is incorporated into the search page within carmax.com, allowing the user to sort and filter not only on the vehicle's characteristics, but also on important finance terms such as monthly payment and down payment.

我還想藉此機會強調自上次電話會議以來關於我們的在線金融體驗所取得的一些成就。提醒一下，我們近 2/3 的客戶在 carmax.com 上開始他們的融資流程，為我們庫存中的任何車輛申請信貸，或者只是申請美元金額。我們獨特的基於財務的購物引擎可供我們的大多數客戶使用，它允許多個貸方決定我們整個庫存的單個客戶或共同申請人，以提供一整套個性化的決策，消費者觸手可及。該工具被整合到 carmax.com 的搜索頁面中，使用戶不僅可以根據車輛的特性，還可以根據每月付款和首付等重要財務條款進行排序和過濾。

During the month of March, we further enhanced this experience and are now testing a no-impact-to-your-credit-score feature, along with a streamlined application process that provides real-time credit decisions on our full inventory. We believe that our differentiated multi-lender platform, coupled with these and additional enhancements that are on horizon, will further strengthen our digital shopping experience.

在 3 月份，我們進一步增強了這種體驗，現在正在測試一個不會影響您的信用評分的功能，以及一個簡化的申請流程，該流程可以為我們的全部庫存提供實時信用決策。我們相信，我們差異化的多貸方平台，加上這些和即將推出的其他增強功能，將進一步加強我們的數字購物體驗。

Now, I'll turn the call back over to Bill.

現在，我將把電話轉回給比爾。

Great. Thank you, Jon. Thank you, Enrique. As I mentioned earlier in this call, I am very proud of how we performed in fiscal 2022. We bought and sold more vehicles than ever before through our retail and wholesale platforms. We've continued to innovate, to aggressively invest in core areas of our business and to pursue new growth opportunities. As a result of these efforts, we've achieved double-digit year-over-year growth in our market share, and we believe we are well positioned to take even more share. We've continued to build out new and enhanced capabilities, and as those capabilities have come to market, we've continued to see positive returns.

偉大的。謝謝你，喬恩。謝謝你，恩里克。正如我在本次電話會議前面提到的，我對我們在 2022 財年的表現感到非常自豪。我們通過零售和批發平台買賣的車輛比以往任何時候都多。我們不斷創新，積極投資於我們業務的核心領域，並尋求新的增長機會。由於這些努力，我們的市場份額實現了兩位數的同比增長，我們相信我們有能力獲得更多份額。我們繼續建立新的和增強的能力，隨著這些能力進入市場，我們繼續看到積極的回報。

Some highlights from this year that will have a lasting impact are, first, enabling online self-progression capabilities, currently available to approximately 90% of our customers with full availability for every customer anticipated by the end of this first quarter. Next, leveraging our online instant appraisal offering to buy a record number of cars directly from consumers, which enable us to nearly double our self-sufficiency as we drive -- as well as drive sustainable wholesale unit growth. Also, transitioning CAF's legacy auto loan receivable servicing system to brand-new technology, which provides CAF a modernized foundation for growth and allows us to enhance our customer experience.

今年將產生持久影響的一些亮點是，首先，啟用在線自我進步功能，目前大約 90% 的客戶可以使用，預計到第一季度末，每位客戶都可以完全使用。接下來，利用我們的在線即時評估服務直接從消費者那裡購買創紀錄數量的汽車，這使我們能夠在駕駛時將自給自足的能力提高近一倍，並推動可持續的批發單位增長。此外，將 CAF 的傳統汽車貸款應收賬款服務系統轉換為全新的技術，為 CAF 提供現代化的增長基礎，並使我們能夠增強客戶體驗。

And finally, rolling out the finance-based shopping capabilities that Jon just described. Our e-commerce engine, combined with our unparalleled nationwide physical footprint, is a key value to our customers and helps us provide what we believe is the best experience in the used car industry. Our ability to offer seamless integration across digital and physical transactions gives us access to the largest total addressable market and is a key differentiator, one that we will continue to enhance.

最後，推出 Jon 剛剛描述的基於金融的購物功能。我們的電子商務引擎與我們無與倫比的全國實體足跡相結合，對我們的客戶來說是一個關鍵價值，並幫助我們提供我們認為是二手車行業的最佳體驗。我們提供跨數字和物理交易無縫集成的能力使我們能夠進入最大的潛在市場，這是一個關鍵的差異化因素，我們將繼續加強這一差異化。

In regard to our fourth quarter online metrics, approximately 11% of retail unit sales were online, up from prior year's quarter of 5%. Our wholesale auctions remain virtual, so 100% of wholesale sales, which represents 23% of total revenue, are considered online transactions. Total revenue resulting from online transactions was approximately 31%. This is up from 17% in last year's fourth quarter. Approximately 55% of retail unit sales were omni sales this quarter, up from 51% in the prior year's quarter.

關於我們第四季度的在線指標，大約 11% 的零售單位銷售額來自在線，高於去年同期的 5%。我們的批發拍賣仍然是虛擬的，因此 100% 的批發銷售（佔總收入的 23%）被視為在線交易。在線交易產生的總收入約為 31%。這高於去年第四季度的 17%。本季度約有 55% 的零售單位銷售額為全方位銷售，高於去年同期的 51%。

In the fourth quarter, we bought approximately 162,000 vehicles from customers through our online instant appraisal. That represents about half of our total buys from consumers. This fiscal year, we bought approximately 707,000 cars through this channel, again, representing roughly half of our total buys from consumers. Going forward, we will continue to evolve our online and in-store capabilities to enable a more seamless experience for our associates and customers.

第四季度，我們通過在線即時評估從客戶那裡購買了大約 162,000 輛汽車。這約占我們從消費者那裡購買的總購買量的一半。本財年，我們通過這個渠道購買了大約 707,000 輛汽車，再次占我們從消費者那裡購買的總量的大約一半。展望未來，我們將繼續發展我們的在線和店內功能，為我們的員工和客戶提供更加無縫的體驗。

I'd like to highlight 4 key areas of focus for FY '23. First, as Jon mentioned earlier, we're deploying a more sophisticated version of our finance-based shopping capability that enables real-time decisions and offers our customers the ability to prequalify for a loan with no impact to their credit score. Second, adding self-service capabilities to enhance in-store interactions, including appraisals and express pickups. Third, growing vehicle acquisition through attracting new customers and pursuing partnerships as we expand our appraisal offering to dealers and other businesses. And finally, continuing to leverage data science, automation and AI to improve efficiencies and effectiveness across our buying organization, business offices and CECs.

我想強調 23 財年的 4 個重點領域。首先，正如 Jon 之前提到的，我們正在部署基於金融的購物功能的更複雜版本，該功能支持實時決策，並為我們的客戶提供貸款資格預審的能力，而不會影響他們的信用評分。其次，增加自助服務能力，增強店內互動，包括評估和快遞取貨。第三，通過吸引新客戶和尋求合作夥伴關係來增加車輛採購，因為我們將評估服務擴展到經銷商和其他業務。最後，繼續利用數據科學、自動化和人工智能來提高我們採購組織、業務辦公室和 CEC 的效率和效力。

Again, we're very proud of the strong results for fiscal '22 as they are in large part due to our relentless focus to provide our customers the best experience in the industry. We are in a strong position moving forward, and we'll continue to invest and innovate to achieve profitable market share growth.

同樣，我們對 22 財年的強勁業績感到非常自豪，因為它們在很大程度上歸功於我們不懈地專注於為我們的客戶提供業內最佳體驗。我們在前進中處於有利地位，我們將繼續投資和創新以實現可盈利的市場份額增長。

During our Analyst Day last May, we announced long-term targets of achieving 2 million combined retail and wholesale units sold and $33 billion of revenue in FY '26, up from $1.2 million and $19 billion, respectively, during FY '21. Though we don't anticipate updating our targets annually, our strong performance in FY '22 has given us a new perspective on these targets that we believe is appropriate to share at this time. We're revising our FY '26 targets to reflect a range of 2 million to 2.4 million combined units with revenue between $33 billion and $45 billion. These ranges reflect the macro factors reported earlier that could result in ongoing volatility in consumer demand and vehicle pricing.

在去年 5 月的分析師日期間，我們宣布了在 26 財年實現 200 萬個零售和批發總銷量和 330 億美元收入的長期目標，高於 21 財年的 120 萬美元和 190 億美元。雖然我們預計不會每年更新我們的目標，但我們在 22 財年的強勁表現讓我們對這些目標有了新的看法，我們認為這些目標在這個時候是適合分享的。我們正在修改我們的 26 財年目標，以反映 200 萬至 240 萬個組合單位的範圍，收入在 330 億美元至 450 億美元之間。這些範圍反映了之前報告的可能導致消費者需求和車輛價格持續波動的宏觀因素。

In regard to market share, I'm excited for the future and confident that we will expand it beyond 5% by the end of calendar 2025.

關於市場份額，我對未來感到興奮，並相信我們將在 2025 年年底將其擴大到 5% 以上。

Last, but most importantly, I want to thank all of our associates for the work that they do. They are truly the keys to our success. Just yesterday, Fortune Magazine named CarMax as one of its 100 Best Companies to work for, for the 18th year in a row. I'm incredibly proud of this recognition as it is due to our associates' commitment to supporting each other, our customers and our communities every day. I want to thank and congratulate all of our associates.

最後，但最重要的是，我要感謝我們所有的員工所做的工作。它們確實是我們成功的關鍵。就在昨天，《財富》雜誌連續第 18 年將 CarMax 評為最適合工作的 100 家公司之一。我為這一認可感到無比自豪，因為這是因為我們的員工每天都致力於相互支持、支持我們的客戶和我們的社區。我要感謝並祝賀我們所有的同事。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Craig Kennison with Baird.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Craig Kennison 和 Baird。

I guess I'm curious about the online instant appraisal tool. Just a number of questions about that. How would you assess your competitive positioning and the competitive landscape in that market? How are you different? Are you putting enough marketing spend behind that effort while you have this competitive advantage?

我想我對在線即時評估工具很好奇。只是一些關於那個的問題。您如何評估您在該市場的競爭定位和競爭格局？你有什麼不同？在擁有這種競爭優勢的同時，您是否投入了足夠的營銷費用？

And then Bill, I think you mentioned plans for fiscal 2023 to roll this out to other dealers. Maybe you could shed some light on that?

然後比爾，我想你提到了 2023 財年將其推廣到其他經銷商的計劃。也許您可以對此有所了解？

Sure. Craig, there's a lot in that question. So first of all, I feel really great about our IO success. I think it's really been so successful because of a bunch of reasons. One, I think it's really the experience and the ease of use of the product. I think it also has the backing and the brand recognition of CarMax, and I mean, let's not forget, this is what we do. We've been buying cars from consumers since 1993. We have started advertising, obviously, for it.

當然。克雷格，這個問題有很多。所以首先，我對我們的 IO 成功感到非常高興。我認為它之所以如此成功，有很多原因。一，我覺得真的是產品的體驗和易用性。我認為它也有 CarMax 的支持和品牌認知度，我的意思是，我們不要忘記，這就是我們所做的。自 1993 年以來，我們一直在向消費者購買汽車。顯然，我們已經開始為此做廣告。

If I look at the fourth quarter and think about our advertising spend, we break it down between kind of brand awareness and acquisition awareness. I would tell you the acquisition awareness, we spent a little bit more on vehicle acquisition awareness this past quarter than we have in previous quarters, so we feel good about the advertising. Now I think, obviously, I think everybody in the marketplace is benefiting a little bit from higher valuations, but I think that's the minority of the bump that we've seen. So we're excited about that.

如果我查看第四季度並考慮我們的廣告支出，我們會將其分為品牌意識和收購意識。我會告訴你收購意識，上個季度我們在車輛收購意識上的花費比前幾個季度多一點，所以我們對廣告感覺很好。現在我認為，顯然，我認為市場上的每個人都從更高的估值中受益，但我認為這只是我們所看到的少數情況。所以我們對此感到興奮。

As far as my comments earlier, yes, look, first of all, we're going to continue to improve that experience for our consumers. But we're also -- we've been testing and we'll continue to roll this out to make it available to other dealers. It's an easy way to get rid of inventory that they're looking to get rid of as well as we'll look for other partnerships where we can leverage this.

就我之前的評論而言，是的，看，首先，我們將繼續為我們的消費者改善這種體驗。但我們也 - 我們一直在測試，我們將繼續推出它以使其可供其他經銷商使用。這是擺脫他們希望擺脫的庫存的一種簡單方法，我們將尋找可以利用這一點的其他合作夥伴。

Our next question comes from Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自 Sharon Zackfia 和 William Blair。

I'm sure everyone is interested in kind of how you can pivot in the current consumer environment, particularly with used car prices where they are. And you talked a little bit about kind of passing on some better prices to consumers in this quarter, but I'm wondering; first, I guess, if you have any kind of additional insight on how much stimulus might have benefited you in the year ago period, both in the fourth quarter and in March now that you've lapped out? If there was any distinct Omicron impact that was isolated to the fourth quarter? I think that would be helpful to know.

我敢肯定，每個人都對如何在當前的消費環境中進行調整感興趣，尤其是在二手車價格所處的位置。你談到了在本季度向消費者傳遞一些更好的價格，但我想知道；首先，我想，如果你對去年第四季度和三月份的刺激措施可能使你受益多少有任何額外的見解，因為你已經結束了？如果在第四季度有任何明顯的 Omicron 影響？我認為這會有所幫助。

And then just given where gas prices are and used car prices, are you seeing any kind of falloff in demand for SUVs? How are you pivoting for that? And then are you shifting average age of your inventory somewhat older to try to make the price points more affordable? I know there's a lot there, but I think it's important to kind of cover all of that, sorry. It's like a 12-part, one-part question.

然後考慮到汽油價格和二手車價格，您是否看到對 SUV 的需求有任何下降？你是如何轉向的？然後，您是否正在改變庫存的平均年齡，以試圖使價格點更實惠？我知道那裡有很多，但我認為涵蓋所有這些很重要，抱歉。這就像一個由 12 部分組成的問題。

Yes. That's a creative way to get like 14 questions into the first one. But look, I'm happy to take all of them. So let me start, first of all, just on your -- the last 2, the gas prices. Look, for the quarter, we really didn't see much of an impact on gas prices as far as a shift. If I look at gas guzzlers from a sales standpoint, very similar year-over-year. So I do think that's an area that we need to continue to monitor as we go forward. We have seen an uptick, for example, in things like EV searches, and Edmunds has seen that as well. But we've certainly navigated that before and been very successful as consumers want something different, we're right there for them. So I'm really not worried about that, and we'll be able to pivot on that.

是的。這是一種將 14 個問題納入第一個問題的創造性方法。但是看，我很高興把它們都拿走。所以讓我開始，首先，就你的 - 最後兩個，汽油價格。看，就本季度而言，就轉變而言，我們真的沒有看到對天然氣價格的太大影響。如果我從銷售的角度來看耗油量大的人，每年的情況非常相似。因此，我確實認為這是我們在前進過程中需要繼續監控的領域。例如，在 EV 搜索等方面，我們已經看到了上升趨勢，Edmunds 也看到了這一點。但我們之前肯定已經駕馭了這一點並且非常成功，因為消費者想要不同的東西，我們就在那里為他們服務。所以我真的不擔心這一點，我們將能夠以此為中心。

Your question on average age of vehicles. We did -- from a retail standpoint, we did see a shift to a little bit older car, which obviously is a little bit cheaper. I think the mix, if I'm looking at 0 to, let's say, 0 to 4 year-over-year, I think there was about 10 points which changed from that bucket into the little bit higher, maybe the 5 to 7 bucket. So we have seen a little bit of shift there. And again, the beauty of our business is, as we see customers looking for different types of inventory, we make sure we get that inventory out there. So we feel good about that.

您關於車輛平均年齡的問題。我們做到了——從零售的角度來看，我們確實看到了轉向更舊的汽車，這顯然更便宜一些。我認為混合，如果我看 0 到，比方說，0 到 4 年同比，我認為大約有 10 個點從那個桶變成了一點點，也許是 5 到 7 桶.所以我們在那裡看到了一些變化。再說一次，我們業務的美妙之處在於，當我們看到客戶在尋找不同類型的庫存時，我們會確保將這些庫存放在那裡。所以我們對此感覺很好。

As far as just commentary around the comps, look, I highlighted a whole bunch of different things that are macro factors that I think are weighing on the overall used car industry. If I had to rank in order of magnitude, and again, this is -- it's hard to exactly quantify each one. But I would probably say that the high prices are at the top of the list, followed by the COVID surge, and we did see a COVID surge in January. And then I think coming out of the COVID surge, I think it kind of transitioned into this whole lower consumer confidence. And then I also think the lapping of the federal stimulus. There was some stimulus came out last December, January time frame, primarily more in January, and then there was even more stimulus coming out in March. So I think that certainly weighed in on the quarter. And I think it's also probably just adding to the softness as we look into the first quarter as well.

至於只是對比賽的評論，看，我強調了一大堆不同的事情，這些都是我認為正在影響整個二手車行業的宏觀因素。如果我必須按數量級進行排名，那麼這就是 - 很難準確量化每一個。但我可能會說，高價位居榜首，其次是 COVID 激增，我們確實在 1 月份看到了 COVID 激增。然後我認為從 COVID 激增中走出來，我認為它有點轉變為整個較低的消費者信心。然後我也想到了聯邦刺激計劃。去年 12 月出台了一些刺激措施，1 月份的時間框架，主要是在 1 月，然後在 3 月出台了更多的刺激措施。所以我認為這肯定影響了本季度。而且我認為這也可能只是增加了我們對第一季度的柔軟度。

How did I do? Did I get all your questions?

我是怎麼做的？我得到你所有的問題了嗎？

Yes, I think so.

是的，我想是這樣。

Our next question comes from Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rajat Gupta。

Great. Maybe just on the SG&A run rate, the $130 million in overhead cost, is that kind of like a good baseline to assume for that particular line item going forward? I'm just curious how does that toggle with any changes on the volume side, given things are a little weaker in the near term?

偉大的。也許僅就 SG&A 的運行率而言，1.3 億美元的間接成本，對於未來的特定項目來說，這是否是一個很好的基準？我只是很好奇，鑑於近期情況稍弱，這種情況如何隨著成交量方面的任何變化而切換？

And then maybe if you could comment on CAF, given like the somewhat worsening affordability environment. How confident are you in terms of being able to pass through any benchmark rate increases or widening in ABS market? How confident are you in terms of being able to pass that through to the consumer in this kind of environment? And if you're not able to do that, how should we think about the implications to the gas business?

然後也許你可以對 CAF 發表評論，考慮到可負擔性環境有所惡化。您對能夠通過任何基準利率上調或 ABS 市場擴大的信心有多大？在這種環境下，您對能夠將其傳遞給消費者的信心有多大？如果你不能做到這一點，我們應該如何考慮對天然氣業務的影響？

Yes. I'll let Enrique talk about the SG&A. And then the CAF business, we'll let Jon answer that, so.

是的。我會讓 Enrique 談談 SG&A。然後是 CAF 業務，我們會讓 Jon 回答這個問題。

Yes. So I'll try and make sure I understood your question. Are you talking specifically about other overhead or just over SG&A as a whole?

是的。所以我會盡力確保我理解你的問題。您是在專門談論其他開銷還是在整個 SG&A 上？

Other overhead.

其他開銷。

Yes. So other overhead this quarter really was it's a continuation of our investment in our technology spend and also costs related to growth. So you got to keep in mind the tremendous amount of cars that we're buying through the A Lane, through the Appraisal Lane as well as an increase in our wholesale business. So I would say that was certainly up this quarter. I would expect it to continue to be up.

是的。因此，本季度的其他開銷確實是我們對技術支出以及與增長相關的成本投資的延續。因此，您必須記住我們通過 A 巷、評估巷購買的大量汽車以及我們批發業務的增長。所以我會說這個季度肯定會上升。我希望它會繼續上漲。

I think taking a step back, though, and taking a look at overall SG&A and all its components. Heading into next year, we do expect, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks to you to needing an excess of the 5% to 8% growth in gross profit in order to lever, and that really has to do with the timing of our investments this year. We were successful in staffing the business up. As you recall at the beginning of the year, we had some staffing challenges and we ramped up that staffing throughout the year, and that will comp into next year. So really, when we look at that higher and 5% to 8% gross profit for next year, it's driven primarily by that timing of that staffing investments that we need to continue to grow this business.

不過，我想退後一步，看看整體 SG&A 及其所有組成部分。進入明年，我們確實預計，正如我在準備好的講話中提到的那樣，毛利潤需要超過 5% 到 8% 的增長才能發揮槓桿作用，這實際上與我們的投資時機有關今年。我們成功地為企業配備了人員。正如您在今年年初所記得的那樣，我們遇到了一些人員配備方面的挑戰，我們全年都在增加人員配備，這將在明年進行。所以真的，當我們看到明年更高的毛利潤和 5% 到 8% 的毛利潤時，這主要是由我們需要繼續發展這項業務的人員配置投資的時機所驅動的。

Yes. Rajat, I can take the affordability question. Appreciate that question. Yes, I think we've mentioned before in the kind of the non-CAF customer, the lower credit spectrum customer, certainly, we feel affordability has maybe often priced them out of the market. You can see that probably reflected in our Tier 3 percentage of sales. But if you look at the CAF customer, I think there's impact there as well. If I look at kind of the micro aspect here, customer last year was coming in purchasing a $20,000 car, maybe putting $1,000 down. Now they're coming in and they're financing $19,000 in that case, they're coming in and they're borrowing $28,000 and they -- if they saw that same $1,000 down, they're asking for $27,000. CAF has a decision to make, as all lenders do, are they going to let that person borrow that much more money? So there is an affordability question there.

是的。 Rajat，我可以接受負擔能力的問題。欣賞這個問題。是的，我認為我們之前在非 CAF 客戶中提到過，信用等級較低的客戶，當然，我們認為負擔能力可能經常將他們排除在市場之外。您可以看到這可能反映在我們的第 3 層銷售額百分比中。但如果你看看 CAF 客戶，我認為那裡也有影響。如果我看一下這裡的微觀方面，去年的客戶來購買一輛 20,000 美元的汽車，可能會降低 1,000 美元。現在他們進來了，在這種情況下他們融資了 19,000 美元，他們進來了，他們藉了 28,000 美元，如果他們看到同樣的 1,000 美元，他們要求 27,000 美元。 CAF 有一個決定，就像所有貸方一樣，他們會讓那個人借更多的錢嗎？所以那裡有一個負擔能力的問題。

I think what we're seeing is, in the case of CAF, and it will speak to our penetration this quarter, CAF was not necessarily just allowing someone to borrow that $27,000. Potentially, their income didn't increase at the same level as their requested amount. So there are other lenders out there that maybe were willing to provide that larger dollar amount, so that did affect our penetration.

我認為我們所看到的是，就 CAF 而言，它將說明我們本季度的滲透率，CAF 不一定只是允許某人借入 27,000 美元。潛在地，他們的收入沒有按照他們要求的數額增加。因此，還有其他貸方可能願意提供更大的金額，這確實影響了我們的滲透率。

People are taking longer terms out there. Right now, you see a much higher prevalence of used car loans higher than 72 months. It's -- it's clear, it's marked year-over-year. CAF actually does not provide a loan greater than 72 months, even that people are trying to manage that affordability through term. That may or may not be the right decision for them, but CAF is exacerbating that. So I think there's a couple of things that affected penetration and are clear impacts of affordability for the customer.

人們在那裡接受更長的期限。現在，您會看到高於 72 個月的二手車貸款流行率要高得多。這是 - 很明顯，它是逐年標記的。 CAF 實際上不提供超過 72 個月的貸款，即使人們正試圖通過期限來管理這種負擔能力。這對他們來說可能是也可能不是正確的決定，但 CAF 正在加劇這種情況。所以我認為有幾件事影響了滲透率，並且對客戶的負擔能力產生了明顯的影響。

The last thing to your point on rates. We clearly have seen a signaling that rates are going to go up. They've gone up initially. They're going to probably continue to go up this year. The back half of this quarter, CAF actually did do some price testing up. We've often shared where we will price test down or up randomly. We did a movement up this quarter. We did see that clearly impact our penetration, but we think it's the right thing to do as we manage our margin. We think as prices go up, we will continue to do that testing, and we think other lenders will follow in kind or be compressed. So we will pass that along as we see fit. We want to remain highly competitive in the marketplace, but yes, we want to make sure that we're managing margin as well.

關於利率的最後一件事。我們清楚地看到了利率將上漲的信號。他們最初上漲了。今年他們可能會繼續上漲。本季度後半段，CAF 確實做了一些價格測試。我們經常分享我們將隨機降低或提高價格測試的地方。我們在本季度進行了一次上漲。我們確實看到這明顯影響了我們的滲透率，但我們認為這是我們管理利潤率的正確做法。我們認為隨著價格上漲，我們將繼續進行測試，我們認為其他貸方將跟進或被壓縮。所以我們會在我們認為合適的時候傳遞它。我們希望在市場上保持高度競爭力，但是是的，我們希望確保我們也在管理利潤。

Rajat, and just to expand a little bit on that SG&A. I think it's important to remember as well that we're focused on capturing the opportunities in our transforming and fragmented industry, right? So whether it's the right time to invest for us, and whether it's periods of strong industry performance or more challenged industry performance like we faced in the fourth quarter, our goal is to take profitable market share, which as Bill talked about in his prepared remarks, we do believe in the fourth quarter despite sales being down, that we still have market share in our segment. And again, that is our objective as we continue to move forward, which means we're going to continue to invest. It's just a huge opportunity for us, and that's where we're going to continue.

Rajat，只是稍微擴展一下 SG&A。我認為同樣重要的是要記住，我們專注於在轉型和分散的行業中抓住機會，對吧？因此，無論是投資我們的正確時機，還是行業表現強勁的時期，還是像第四季度面臨的更具挑戰性的行業表現，我們的目標是獲得可盈利的市場份額，正如比爾在準備好的講話中所說的那樣，我們確實相信第四季度儘管銷售額下降，但我們仍然在我們的細分市場佔有市場份額。同樣，這是我們繼續前進的目標，這意味著我們將繼續投資。這對我們來說只是一個巨大的機會，這就是我們將繼續的地方。

We'll take our next question from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

我們將向奧本海默的布萊恩·內格爾提出下一個問題。

This is William Dossett on for Brian Nagel. So the question that we wanted to ask was on the nature of the deceleration in the used car business from fiscal Q3 to fiscal Q4. You spoke about the factors previously. How should we think about the factor of declining consumer confidence? When did it come about in Q4? And how should we consider this dynamic into fiscal Q3?

這是威廉·多塞特（William Dossett）為布萊恩·內格爾（Brian Nagel）所做的。所以我們想問的問題是二手車業務從第三季度到第四季度減速的性質。您之前談到了這些因素。我們應該如何看待消費者信心下降的因素？什麼時候出現在第四季度？我們應該如何將這種動態考慮到第三財季？

Yes. I think, as I said earlier, consumer confidence was obviously one of the factors. I think we actually -- right after we saw the COVID surge, I think as we're kind of transitioning out of that, we started to see kind of just lack of consumer confidence. And I think that's a very similar situation that we're in right now, just for the reasons that we've talked about. From an affordability standpoint, you've got interest rates going up. Inflation, you've got the Ukraine-Russia war. There's just a lot weighing on the consumer right now.

是的。我認為，正如我之前所說，消費者信心顯然是因素之一。我認為我們實際上——就在我們看到 COVID 激增之後，我認為隨著我們正在擺脫這種情況，我們開始看到消費者缺乏信心。而且我認為這與我們現在所處的情況非常相似，只是出於我們已經討論過的原因。從負擔能力的角度來看，利率上升了。通貨膨脹，你有烏克蘭 - 俄羅斯戰爭。現在對消費者的壓力很大。

So as far as when that turns around, I don't know. But again, I think to Enrique's point earlier, I mean, we're going to continue to manage this. We've managed through cycles like this before, and we think we're in a position to do it in a way that we can continue to gain market share.

所以至於什麼時候轉，我不知道。但同樣，我認為恩里克之前的觀點，我的意思是，我們將繼續管理這個問題。我們以前曾經歷過這樣的周期，我們認為我們能夠以能夠繼續獲得市場份額的方式做到這一點。

We'll go next to John Healy with Northcoast Research.

我們將與 Northcoast Research 一起前往 John Healy。

Great. Bill, I just wanted to ask kind of a big picture question. You're talking about affordability kind of being a headwind to the business, which makes sense, which makes us all kind of realize that with higher rates, maybe values need to come lower.

偉大的。比爾，我只是想問一個大問題。你說的是負擔能力對業務來說是一種逆風，這是有道理的，這讓我們都意識到，隨著利率的提高，價值可能需要降低。

So maybe you can give us your thoughts in terms of the relationship between unit and ASP, and maybe how you think ASPs and the used car market kind of maybe fluctuate over the next 6 to 12 months? And with that, is there still a lot of confidence that you guys are going to protect GP potentially at the expense of same-store sales? And is the $2,100 GP kind of benchmark, in your view, achievable even in a kind of softening used car market where maybe values and what you have in inventory maybe are pressured a little bit?

因此，也許您可以就單位和 ASP 之間的關係給我們您的想法，也許您認為 ASP 和二手車市場在未來 6 到 12 個月內可能會如何波動？有了這個，你們是否仍然很有信心以犧牲同店銷售為代價來保護 GP？在你看來，2,100 美元 GP 的基準是否可以實現，即使在二手車市場疲軟的情況下，價值和你的庫存可能會受到一點壓力？

Yes, John, thanks for the question. First of all, the affordability, while you're right, it's a headwind for retail, it's actually good for wholesale, as you saw our wholesale margins. And I think that's one of the benefits of having the diversified business because as you saw, our GPU for wholesale was up.

是的，約翰，謝謝你的問題。首先，負擔能力，雖然你是對的，但它對零售業不利，實際上對批發業有利，因為你看到了我們的批發利潤。而且我認為這是擁有多元化業務的好處之一，因為正如您所見，我們的批發 GPU 已經上漲。

I think the unit ASP, if you'd ask me, probably 3 or 4 months ago, I would have said I was hoping later this year, we'll see some relief. I'm just not sure. Especially given the war in Ukraine and Russia, I'm not sure new car supply is going to come around later this year, that's to be determined. I think that's a big factor that will help mitigate just some of the overall price inflation in both new and used cars.

我認為單位 ASP，如果你問我，可能是 3 或 4 個月前，我會說我希望今年晚些時候，我們會看到一些緩解。我只是不確定。特別是考慮到烏克蘭和俄羅斯的戰爭，我不確定今年晚些時候新車供應是否會出現，這是有待確定的。我認為這是一個重要因素，有助於緩解新車和二手車的整體價格通脹。

But what I will tell you is, though, to your question about GPU, I think that we're in a great spot. I mean, if you look at the benefit we've got with self-sufficiency, and I talked a little bit about that, we -- everybody is seeing inflationary pressure as well. The nice thing is we have a lever that's offsetting those inflationary pressures. So if you didn't have a lever offsetting inflationary pressures, that's obviously going to be either cutting into your margin or it's going to be raising your average selling prices. And then we still have benefit left over beyond that to pass along to the retail consumers. And I think our self-sufficiency benefits are still kind of maturing. I think there's more potential there in how we manage that and how we do our offers, that kind of thing.

但是我要告訴你的是，關於你關於 GPU 的問題，我認為我們處於一個很好的位置。我的意思是，如果你看看我們自給自足的好處，我談了一點，我們——每個人都看到了通脹壓力。好消息是我們有一個可以抵消這些通脹壓力的槓桿。因此，如果你沒有抵消通脹壓力的槓桿，那顯然要么會削減你的利潤，要么會提高你的平均售價。除此之外，我們還有剩餘的利益可以傳遞給零售消費者。而且我認為我們的自給自足的好處仍然有點成熟。我認為在我們如何管理它以及我們如何提供我們的報價等方面有更大的潛力。

So as I think about the future, even if you get into a depreciating environment, which we've shown over time in a depreciating environment, we're still able to maintain very consistent GPUs. I think with self-sufficiency, I think, with our diversified business, with the CAF profit that can be generated, wholesale -- additional wholesale profit that can be generated, I think we can maintain very good margins per unit as well as having great retail front prices. So I think we're well positioned for however the market that it's going forward.

所以當我考慮未來時，即使你進入一個貶值的環境，我們已經在貶值的環境中隨著時間的推移展示了這一點，我們仍然能夠保持非常一致的 GPU。我認為，在自給自足的情況下，我認為，憑藉我們多元化的業務，可以產生的 CAF 利潤，批發 - 可以產生的額外批發利潤，我認為我們可以保持非常好的每單位利潤率以及零售正面價格。所以我認為我們已經為未來的市場做好了準備。

We'll go next to Daniel Imbro with Stephens.

我們將和斯蒂芬斯一起去丹尼爾·因布羅旁邊。

Wanted to ask, one, just on the tax refund season. I mean, I think they started earlier this year and total dollars paid are actually up. Enrique, I think you mentioned you hired proactively ahead of tax season. So I'm curious, did you guys see the expected pickup maybe in transit as those got paid out? And have the trends you've seen as tax refunds got paid out changed your opinion of the underlying health of the consumer kind of as you look for the rest of fiscal '23 ahead of us?

想問問，一，剛到退稅季。我的意思是，我認為他們從今年早些時候開始，支付的總金額實際上已經增加了。恩里克，我想你提到過你在報稅季之前主動招聘。所以我很好奇，你們有沒有看到預期的皮卡可能在運輸途中，因為那些已經付清了？當您在尋找 23 財年的剩餘時間時，您看到的退稅趨勢是否改變了您對消費者潛在健康狀況的看法？

Yes. Daniel, I think when I look at the tax season this year, I think it's very representative of what we saw last year. Now remember, last year, it was a late tax season in comparison to what we normally see. So this year was -- timing wise it was very similar last year. I do think the refunds are a little bit higher this year versus last year. But I think the other complicating factor that you don't have this year that you had last year was the stimulus that was paid out in January and March, so it's really hard to decouple all that.

是的。丹尼爾，我認為當我看今年的稅收季節時，我認為它非常具有我們去年看到的代表性。現在請記住，與我們通常看到的情況相比，去年是一個較晚的稅收季節。所以今年是 - 時間方面與去年非常相似。我確實認為今年的退款比去年要高一些。但我認為今年沒有去年的另一個複雜因素是一月和三月支付的刺激措施，因此很難將這一切脫鉤。

I would just go back to my comments on the consumer confidence earlier, which is -- which, I think, is -- regardless of the kind of the tax season, I just think the consumer isn't in a strong position as they were a year ago.

我只想回到我早些時候對消費者信心的評論，這是 - 我認為是 - 無論稅收季節如何，我只是認為消費者並沒有像以前那樣處於強勢地位一年前。

We'll go next to Michael Montani with Evercore ISI.

我們將與 Evercore ISI 一起前往 Michael Montani。

I wanted to ask, if I could, on the capacity front, if you could just bring us up to speed now in terms of some of the incremental hires that you were looking to do and the ability to recondition the vehicles in light of some COVID disruptions, et cetera? Do you feel that you all are kind of appropriately staffed now, able to get kind of the full recon work through that you would have hoped for? So that was kind of the first question.

我想問一下，如果可以的話，在容量方面，您是否可以讓我們現在就您希望做的一些增量招聘以及根據某些 COVID 對車輛進行翻新的能力來加快速度中斷，等等？你覺得你們現在都配備了適當的人員，能夠完成你所希望的全面偵察工作嗎？所以這是第一個問題。

Yes. So we feel great about both our capacity, production capacity and our staffing at this point. Pretty much the whole year, first, second, third quarters, I talked about trying to get staffing ramped up, I talked about lower inventory. And coming out of the third quarter, I had made comments, look, we're well on our way to getting inventory to where we need to be.

是的。因此，我們目前對我們的產能、生產能力和人員配備都感到非常滿意。幾乎整整一年，第一，第二，第三季度，我都談到了試圖增加人員配備，我談到了降低庫存。從第三季度開始，我發表了評論，看，我們正在將庫存送到我們需要的地方。

I don't think inventory was necessarily a big topic for the fourth quarter. When I look at our inventory levels, I always look at it on a kind of a per average store, and I've always seen historically, on average, it's about 320. We're not quite at the 320. But I would tell you, I don't think it was a big story. I do feel like we've got the capacity we need. We obviously can -- right, currently, we have -- we can build more than 1 million cars a year.

我認為庫存不一定是第四季度的一個大話題。當我查看我們的庫存水平時，我總是以平均每家商店的數量來看待它，而且我從歷史上一直看到，平均而言，它大約是 320。我們還沒有達到 320。但我會告訴你，我不認為這是一個大故事。我確實覺得我們已經擁有了我們需要的能力。我們顯然可以——對，目前，我們有——我們每年可以生產超過 100 萬輛汽車。

And the capital expenditures that Enrique talked about earlier, that's all part of our natural planning process. As we look out to the future, we already have some production facilities we're working on, but these are additional production facilities as well as just given the success of our wholesale business, we want to make sure that we can accommodate all the space. So really, it's just us doing business as we normally do it.

恩里克之前談到的資本支出，都是我們自然規劃過程的一部分。展望未來，我們已經擁有一些正在建設的生產設施，但這些都是額外的生產設施，鑑於我們批發業務的成功，我們希望確保我們能夠容納所有空間.所以真的，這只是我們像往常一樣做生意。

Yes. From a CapEx perspective, we're really just matching our capacity to the longer-term demand. And like Bill said, it's just natural kind of steps we're taking, just being very thoughtful in our approach to capacity expansion to make sure that over time, we can meet the longer-term targets that we've set out there.

是的。從資本支出的角度來看，我們實際上只是將我們的產能與長期需求相匹配。就像比爾說的那樣，我們正在採取自然的步驟，只是在我們的產能擴張方法上非常周到，以確保隨著時間的推移，我們能夠實現我們在那裡設定的長期目標。

Yes. I think the only difference in the capital expenditures, which Enrique has called out on a couple of different calls now, is just the stepped-up investment in technology. Just it's a bigger percent of our overall CapEx spend.

是的。我認為資本支出的唯一區別，恩里克現在已經在幾個不同的電話中呼籲，只是加大了對技術的投資。只是它占我們整體資本支出的更大百分比。

Yes, it's actually fairly interesting. And I talked about this in Analyst Day, but if you go back a few years, about 15% of our CapEx spend was on technology. And now that we've been transforming our business, as we look to this year and next year, we're looking at about 30% of our overall CapEx spend is related to technology. So certainly, not in the direction of becoming omnichannel retailer.

是的，它實際上相當有趣。我在分析師日談到了這一點，但如果你回到幾年前，我們大約 15% 的資本支出用於技術。現在我們一直在改變我們的業務，展望今年和明年，我們預計總資本支出中約有 30% 與技術相關。因此，當然，不會朝著成為全渠道零售商的方向發展。

And then one of your major competitors did an acquisition in the wholesale channel recently. And I guess what I wanted to do is build on the comment you just made. So do you feel that given the step-up in CapEx spend towards tech, and then given some of the alternative profit opportunities you have, do you think that there's enough in-house? Or is there potentially an opportunity set to kind of bolster the core capabilities inorganically?

然後你的一個主要競爭對手最近在批發渠道進行了收購。我想我想做的是建立在你剛剛發表的評論的基礎上。那麼，您是否認為鑑於資本支出對技術的支出增加，以及您擁有的一些替代盈利機會，您認為內部是否有足夠的資金？或者是否有潛在的機會以無機方式增強核心能力？

Are you talking about from a production capacity?

你是從生產能力上說的嗎？

I think one is just on the wholesale business, right? You guys have done a great job this past year there. Is there an opportunity to potentially grow that platform even faster inorganically? And then also as it relates to the tech side, given the stepped-up investment in CapEx, is that kind of adequate? Or potentially, is there some inorganic capabilities that you might be targeting as well?

我認為一個只是批發業務，對吧？在過去的一年裡，你們在那裡做得很好。是否有機會在無機上更快地發展該平台？然後還涉及到技術方面，考慮到對資本支出的加大投資，這種情況是否足夠？或者潛在地，您是否也可能針對某些無機功能？

Yes. No, look, we feel great about the auction business. As you know, we continue to run that 100% virtual right now. When you think about the CapEx, your auction expense is a lot less than your overall production expense. Because production, you're building out facilities, they're expensive. Auctions, you just essentially need space at this point. I mean, there is some build out on some larger auction facilities, but -- to hold this inventory. But we feel great about the plans and are very comfortable with how we've been operating, and the fact that we can continue to grow the wholesale business, really, at a quicker pace than just kind of along with the normal growth that it sees when it's growing as we sell more retail cars.

是的。不，看，我們對拍賣業務感覺很好。如您所知，我們現在繼續運行 100% 虛擬化。當您考慮資本支出時，您的拍賣費用遠低於您的整體生產費用。因為生產，你正在建造設施，它們很昂貴。拍賣，此時您基本上只需要空間。我的意思是，在一些更大的拍賣設施上進行了一些擴建，但是 - 持有這個庫存。但我們對這些計劃感到非常滿意，並且對我們的運營方式以及我們可以繼續發展批發業務這一事實感到非常滿意，實際上，以比它看到的正常增長更快的速度當它隨著我們銷售更多零售汽車而增長時。

We'll go next to Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

我們將與 Wedbush Securities 一起前往 Seth Basham。

There's been a fair amount of talk about market share on this call. And I know you don't measure market share on a quarterly basis, but in the fiscal fourth quarter, according to Cox data, used vehicle retail, saw a decline, 4%. Your unit sales on a retail basis declined more than that, so you would have lost market share. Can you please give us some sense as to, is that because you're protecting GPU? Or are there other reasons why you might have lost market share in quarter?

在這次電話會議上有相當多的關於市場份額的討論。而且我知道您沒有按季度衡量市場份額，但根據考克斯的數據，在第四財季，二手車零售量下降了 4%。您的零售單位銷售額下降幅度更大，因此您將失去市場份額。你能給我們一些感覺嗎，是因為你在保護GPU嗎？或者還有其他原因可能導致您在本季度失去市場份額？

Yes. Seth, when we look at market share and even in the fourth quarter, we had great market share growth, and we go off of (inaudible) data, which is title data. The reason we only look on an annual basis is because it was really like a 2- to 3-month lag there. So we are very confident that we gained not only market share for the whole year, but we gained it for the fourth quarter. And as my comment said earlier, we feel really, really good about market share gains in the first quarter despite what's going on in the macro factors. And when I look at the market share, it doesn't matter if you break it down 0 to 4-year-old cars, 5 to 7, 8 to 10, we got double-digit growth in all those buckets. So we feel great about it.

是的。賽斯，當我們查看市場份額時，甚至在第四季度，我們的市場份額都有很大的增長，而且我們不再使用（聽不清）數據，即標題數據。我們只看每年一次的原因是因為那裡真的有 2 到 3 個月的延遲。因此，我們非常有信心，我們不僅獲得了全年的市場份額，而且在第四季度也獲得了市場份額。正如我之前的評論所說，儘管宏觀因素發生了變化，但我們對第一季度的市場份額增長感到非常非常好。當我看市場份額時，不管你把它分解為 0 到 4 年、5 到 7 年、8 到 10 年的汽車，我們在所有這些桶中都獲得了兩位數的增長。所以我們對此感覺很好。

And the other thing I'd point out is that market share growth is primarily -- it's coming through comps. It's not like we've opened a whole bunch of new markets, and that's what's driving the market share, which, again, we're excited about.

我要指出的另一件事是，市場份額的增長主要是通過補償來實現的。這並不是說我們開闢了一大堆新市場，這就是推動市場份額的原因，我們對此再次感到興奮。

Got it. Okay. And then just a follow-up on the CAF business, if you don't mind. Your loan loss provision was in a normal range, I guess, you planned it, Jon. And as you think about the credit environment now and then going forward, we have seen deterioration. But from your perspective, you don't expect any further deterioration, so there's no need to further increase your loan losses going forward?

知道了。好的。如果你不介意的話，然後只是對 CAF 業務的跟進。你的貸款損失準備金在正常範圍內，我猜是你計劃好的，喬恩。當你不時考慮未來的信貸環境時，我們看到了惡化。但是從您的角度來看，您預計不會進一步惡化，因此您沒有必要進一步增加您的貸款損失嗎？

Yes, fair comments, Seth. Yes. No, I would say just point to our reserve-to-receivable ratio steady from last quarter to this quarter. We mentioned we felt like we've kind of returned to pre-pandemic levels. We think we're there. We feel really good about our reserve right now, and we have a good handle on the business. So if all things perform as we expect, really, the focal point on the future provision will be on the new originations. And then obviously, there's a mix of Tier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3 and the volume we originate, but I think we're pretty steady and in a good spot.

是的，公平的評論，賽斯。是的。不，我只想指出我們的準備金與應收賬款比率從上個季度到本季度保持穩定。我們提到我們覺得我們已經恢復到大流行前的水平。我們認為我們在那裡。我們現在對我們的儲備感覺非常好，並且我們對業務有很好的處理。因此，如果所有事情都按照我們的預期進行，那麼未來條款的重點將放在新的起源上。然後很明顯，有第 1 層、第 2 層、第 3 層和我們發起的數量的混合，但我認為我們非常穩定並且處於一個很好的位置。

We'll move next to Chris Bottiglieri of BNP Paribas.

我們將移到法國巴黎銀行的克里斯·博蒂格列裡旁邊。

So first question is on the EPP, obviously, that kind of true up given the change in accrual status. How do we think that for next year? Should we just take like a 4 quarter average and that's kind of like the new run rate? Or is it going to be kind of like this year where it's Q4 weighted on EPP?

因此，第一個問題是關於 EPP，顯然，鑑於應計狀態的變化，這種情況是正確的。我們如何看待明年？我們是否應該只取 4 個季度的平均值，這有點像新的運行率？還是會像今年一樣，在第四季度對 EPP 進行加權？

Yes. I think there are different considerations in EPP, right? There is the kind of the core business, which is driven by sales and an attach rate from our ESP and EPP products. And then there's the year-end profit sharing that we have with our partners. So I think on the prior year, I think it's growing our business, growing our penetration, that will continue to grow. And then the consideration in the fourth quarter this year was that we had more profit sharing revenue than we did last year in the fourth quarter. This time profit sharing was higher. And so given the timing of when we recognize that, if you recall, last year, we actually had one of our partners in profit sharing revenue that was in the second quarter, they were recognized on a quarterly basis. They have moved in fiscal year '22 to an annual basis, so now all of our recognition of profit sharing is in the fourth quarter, which is why we saw a little bit higher this year of profit sharing in the fourth quarter.

是的。我認為EPP有不同的考慮，對吧？有一種核心業務，由我們的 ESP 和 EPP 產品的銷售和附加率驅動。然後是我們與合作夥伴的年終利潤分享。所以我認為在前一年，我認為我們的業務正在增長，我們的滲透率也在增長，這將繼續增長。然後今年第四季度的考慮是我們的利潤分享收入比去年第四季度的要多。這一次的利潤分成更高。因此，考慮到我們認識到這一點的時間，如果你還記得，去年，我們實際上有一個合作夥伴在第二季度獲得利潤分享收入，他們是按季度確認的。他們已在 22 財年轉為按年度計算，所以現在我們對利潤分享的所有認可都在第四季度，這就是為什麼我們在第四季度看到今年的利潤分享略高的原因。

But taking a look at our business, again, if you take a look at the core sales, you take a look at EPP attachment rates, which has been going really well. We're stable at about 60%, and we would expect that to continue moving forward as well.

但是再看看我們的業務，如果你看看核心銷售額，你就會看看 EPP 附加率，它一直非常好。我們穩定在 60% 左右，我們預計這也將繼續向前發展。

Yes. The only other thing I would add to that, Chris, is our goal isn't to generate a bunch of profit sharing. I mean, we want to have these things priced fairly for the consumer. We had some profit sharing, just -- I think it was more driven by people just lack of driving, things like that. But our goal is not to necessarily drive a big revenue recognition at the end of the year.

是的。克里斯，我唯一要補充的另一件事是，我們的目標不是產生大量利潤分享。我的意思是，我們希望為消費者公平定價這些東西。我們有一些利潤分享，只是 - 我認為這更多是由缺乏駕駛的人驅動的，諸如此類。但我們的目標不一定是在年底推動大的收入確認。

Got you. Kind of a bigger picture question on customer sourcing. So you talked about the instant appraisal business and growth in customer sourcing, I know it's difficult to tease out. But based on like the age profile of the vehicle that you're buying from those, how much of this is incremental purchases do you think would have come from a private party market as a statement of TAM versus do you think you're coming from other dealers, like indirectly, the cars that would have gone to auction or would have been traded in retail? Is there a way to make sense internally for what -- like how much of the payment growing versus taking share?

得到你。關於客戶採購的一個更大的問題。所以你談到了即時評估業務和客戶採購的增長，我知道很難梳理出來。但是根據您從這些車輛購買的車輛的年齡概況，您認為其中有多少是增量購買，作為 TAM 的聲明，您認為來自私人市場，而不是您認為您來自其他經銷商，比如間接地，將拍賣或零售交易的汽車？有沒有辦法在內部解釋什麼——比如支付增長與分享的比例？

And lastly, just a perspective on buyer rates, like once you appraise a car, what's the buy rate like today versus where it was pre-COVID?

最後，只是對買家率的看法，比如一旦你評估了一輛汽車，今天的購買率與 COVID 之前的購買率是多少？

Okay. So Chris, just on kind of incremental share, we're in the process of developing kind of a buy share that looks at vehicles that originally were with the consumer. The last person that they were was essentially with the consumer, and so we're working on a metric there. We feel great about -- we've certainly increased that buy share. We know that, and now we're just trying to be able to quantify it more. So that's something we're looking at. But we certainly are comfortable that the bulk of this are coming from other consumers.

好的。因此，克里斯，就增量份額而言，我們正在開發一種購買份額，該份額著眼於最初與消費者一起使用的車輛。他們最後一個人基本上是與消費者在一起的，所以我們正在那裡制定一個指標。我們感覺很好——我們當然增加了購買份額。我們知道這一點，現在我們只是試圖能夠更多地量化它。這就是我們正在研究的東西。但我們當然很滿意，其中大部分來自其他消費者。

As far as the buy rate, historically, the way we talked about buy rate before instant offer was how many people come into the store and ended up getting an appraisal, and then what did we -- what percent of those cars did we actually buy. Then we added the instant online appraisal, and the way we buy -- we measure buy rate now is you take -- because we're issuing probably a couple to 3 million instant offers in a quarter, and there's a lot of folks who just kind of shop in to see what their vehicle's worth. So the way we calculate buy rate now is on the instant offers when they show up at the store, how much of those actually convert in addition to the traditional way that we looked at it. And we're in the 40% on buy rate. If you look at it the more traditional way that we used to look at it, it's probably in the low 30-ish -- 30-ish percent. So hopefully, that's the color that you needed.

至於購買率，從歷史上看，我們在即時報價之前談論購買率的方式是有多少人進入商店並最終得到評估，然後我們做了什麼——我們實際購買了這些汽車的百分比.然後我們添加了即時在線評估，我們購買的方式——我們現在衡量購買率是你採取的——因為我們在一個季度內可能會發出幾到 300 萬個即時報價，而且有很多人只是進店看看他們的車值多少錢。因此，我們現在計算購買率的方式是在他們出現在商店時的即時報價，除了我們查看它的傳統方式之外，其中有多少實際轉換。我們的買入率是 40%。如果您以我們過去看待它的更傳統的方式來看待它，它可能處於 30-ish-30-ish 的低百分比。所以希望這就是你需要的顏色。

Yes, far more complex. I appreciate it. That's helpful.

是的，要復雜得多。我很感激。這很有幫助。

We'll go next to David Whiston at Morningstar.

我們會去晨星的大衛惠斯頓旁邊。

On CAF penetration, more 3-day payoffs. If you were to say fiscal '17 or so, it is down, and I'm just curious. It looks like, obviously, Tier 2 is taking more business. And is that just an intentional thing on your part? Or is there something else driving the decline? And then by roughly mid-decade, where do you want your penetration, either gross or net, to be?

在 CAF 滲透方面，更多的 3 天收益。如果你說 '17 財政年度左右，它已經下降了，我只是好奇。看起來，顯然，第 2 層正在接受更多業務。這只是你故意的嗎？還是有其他原因導致下降？然後到大約 10 年中期，你希望你的滲透率在哪裡，無論是總滲透率還是淨滲透率？

Yes. I appreciate the question, David. Yes, I mentioned in our earlier comments around affordability, let's just talk about penetration and appreciate you going back to pre-pandemic levels. Historically, Q4 is not going to be one of the highest CAF penetration quarters, obviously being wedged up against tax time. But that being said, it is down, we are losing penetration to outside financing.

是的。我很欣賞這個問題，大衛。是的，我在之前關於可負擔性的評論中提到過，讓我們只談談滲透率，並感謝您回到大流行前的水平。從歷史上看，第四季度不會成為 CAF 滲透率最高的季度之一，顯然與稅收時間相衝突。但話雖如此，它已經下降，我們正在失去對外部融資的滲透。

I mentioned previously, we really believe this is an affordability aspect. People are coming in looking to borrow more money given the ASPs that are out there. As a lender, we have a decision to make, which is, are we going to ask for more money down? We're going to let them borrow that full amount? In some cases, we are not letting them borrow that full amount that they're asking for given the higher ASP, and perhaps there's another lender externally that's willing to provide that full amount, even though the income maybe not have gone up at the same level. So we think we're losing in that case.

我之前提到過，我們真的相信這是一個負擔能力方面。鑑於那裡的 ASP，人們正在尋求借更多的錢。作為貸方，我們需要做出決定，即我們是否要要求更多的首付？我們打算讓他們藉那麼多錢嗎？在某些情況下，鑑於 ASP 較高，我們不會讓他們藉入他們所要求的全部金額，並且可能有另一個外部貸方願意提供全部金額，即使收入可能沒有同時增加等級。所以我們認為我們在這種情況下輸了。

I also mentioned around the longer terms. People are clearly managing affordability to extending that term. That is far more impactful to lowering the monthly payment than any rate adjustment. So we do not provide a greater than a 72-month term on a used loan right now, CAF does not, actually impacted CarMax. None of our lenders do. So we think there are people out there that are absolutely providing that. That's been shown in the data. So I think those 2 things are contributing to penetration.

我還提到了更長的期限。人們顯然正在管理延長該期限的負擔能力。與任何費率調整相比，這對降低每月付款的影響要大得多。因此，我們現在不提供超過 72 個月的已用貸款期限，CAF 實際上並沒有影響 CarMax。我們的貸方都沒有。所以我們認為那裡有絕對提供這一點的人。這已在數據中顯示出來。所以我認為這兩件事有助於滲透。

I also mentioned we did price testing up which, again, trying to be in line with where interest rates are headed to manage our margins. So we did see some impacts there. So I think that's what's changing the actual penetration for this quarter.

我還提到我們進行了價格測試，再次嘗試與利率走向一致以管理我們的利潤。所以我們確實在那裡看到了一些影響。所以我認為這就是改變本季度實際滲透率的原因。

To your question of where do we want it to be, I think we probably think more about it as we want to be highly competitive. There are ebbs and flows all the time based on what external folks do, but we want to remain highly competitive and provide our higher-end customers an opportunity to finance internally. But that's what we love about our platform. You can do a 3-day payoff. We do have other lenders to pick up that, but we don't want to extend the full amount, and we can still sell the car in CarMax. So I don't think we're targeting a penetration, and I would expect it to ebb and flow over time, especially as prices come down.

對於您關於我們希望它在哪裡的問題，我認為我們可能會更多地考慮它，因為我們希望具有高度競爭力。外部人員所做的事情總是有起有落，但我們希望保持高度競爭力，並為我們的高端客戶提供內部融資的機會。但這就是我們喜歡我們的平台的原因。您可以進行 3 天的付款。我們確實有其他貸方可以領取，但我們不想延長全部金額，我們仍然可以在 CarMax 中出售汽車。所以我不認為我們的目標是滲透，我預計它會隨著時間的推移而起起落落，尤其是在價格下降的情況下。

I think approaching our CAF business that way is really what leads us to have a really strong portfolio of receivables out there and a really strong and consistent performing business in CAF.

我認為以這種方式處理我們的 CAF 業務確實是導致我們在 CAF 中擁有非常強大的應收賬款組合以及非常強大且始終如一的業績業務的原因。

Well, and I think it's also the reason that you want to have also other lenders so that if we keep our portfolio in paper very, very consistent, having other lenders there in CarMax's camp is a great thing.

好吧，我認為這也是您希望擁有其他貸方的原因，因此，如果我們將我們的投資組合保持非常非常一致，那麼在 CarMax 陣營中擁有其他貸方是一件好事。

And let me just clarify something you said. Did you say not only capital, so the Tier 2 and Tier 3 partners do not do over 72 months?

讓我澄清一下你所說的。你說不光是資本，所以Tier 2 和Tier 3 合夥人不做超過72 個月？

Right now in the CarMax stores or in the CarMax business, we do not offer a used loan greater than 72 months. It's something that we may or may not consider in the future. But right now, that is not what we're doing across CAF or our other lenders.

目前在 CarMax 商店或 CarMax 業務中，我們不提供超過 72 個月的二手貸款。這是我們將來可能會或可能不會考慮的事情。但現在，這不是我們在 CAF 或其他貸方所做的事情。

Okay. And do you think, inevitably, you're going to have to go over 72?

好的。你認為，不可避免地，你將不得不超過 72 歲嗎？

We have chosen not to. Again, we're trying to make the right decision for the customer. We're not necessarily convinced that 84 months is best on a used car, so we'll see what the market dictates. And we obviously know that prices are increasing and terms are increasing, but we also expect prices to probably normalize as well, and it might not be necessary. But again, we want to make the best decision for the customer, and we feel like we're still able to sell vehicles without providing that today.

我們選擇不這樣做。同樣，我們正在努力為客戶做出正確的決定。我們不一定相信 84 個月對二手車來說是最好的，所以我們將看看市場的規定。我們顯然知道價格在上漲，條款也在增加，但我們也預計價格也可能會正常化，這可能沒有必要。但同樣，我們想為客戶做出最好的決定，我們覺得我們今天仍然能夠在不提供這些的情況下銷售車輛。

Next, we'll go to Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

接下來，我們將和威廉布萊爾一起去莎朗扎克菲亞。

I just had a quick follow-up. I know that you have planned more investments in marketing, but CAC really floated up in the fourth quarter. I think it ended up at around [$350] for the full year. Is $350 like a right run rate? And I'm wondering how you think about the guardrails around marketing in an environment where the consumer just may be incredibly distracted?

我只是快速跟進。我知道您計劃在營銷方面進行更多投資，但 CAC 確實在第四季度浮出水面。我認為全年的最終價格約為 [350 美元]。 350 美元是合適的運行率嗎？而且我想知道在消費者可能會非常分心的環境中，您如何看待圍繞營銷的護欄？

Yes. No, great question, Sharon. And look, if I think back on kind of pre-pandemic, if I look at our overall advertising spend, we're spending -- as we said we would -- we said we're going to spend more. We're spending about 70% more than pre-pandemic, which, if you look at it on a unit basis, it's probably about a 55% or so increase on a per unit basis.

是的。不，很好的問題，莎倫。看看，如果我回想一下大流行前的情況，如果我看看我們的整體廣告支出，我們正在支出——正如我們所說的那樣——我們說我們會花更多的錢。我們的支出比大流行前高出約 70%，如果您以單位為單位來看，則可能每單位增加約 55% 左右。

I think we kind of came right in the range of where we talked about being this year. We started out this year in that [mid-$300] per unit. And I would tell you, I think we're at a point where there are certain things we want to make sure that we advertise and get out there, especially as we have new functionality. And I can't see us necessarily taking a step back on our advertising.

我認為我們在今年談論的範圍內有點正確。我們今年開始時每單位 [mid-300 美元]。我會告訴你，我認為我們正處於某個階段，我們希望確保我們做廣告並走出去，特別是當我們有新功能時。而且我認為我們不一定會在廣告上退後一步。

Now to your question, do you continue to step up? That's where we'll figure out what's going on in the dynamics, where is the consumer right now, to figure out if we go beyond that. But I think a good way to think about it is the spend on a per unit basis this year will be similar to what it was for last year.

現在回答你的問題，你會繼續加強嗎？在那裡，我們將弄清楚動態中發生了什麼，消費者現在在哪裡，以確定我們是否超越了這一點。但我認為考慮這一點的一個好方法是，今年的單位支出將與去年相似。

We'll go next to Daniel Imbro with Stephens.

我們將和斯蒂芬斯一起去丹尼爾·因布羅旁邊。

I just want to follow up on the instant offer with consumers. Right now, consumers having positive equity in their cars. I would think that makes it easier to buy from them just because they're making money on each one. But as we return to negative equity in vehicles over the coming years, do you think that will make it harder for you guys to customer source? Or how do you anticipate that impacting your ability to source and kind of have success with instant offer as we return to negative equity? Can you just roll that into financing, or how do you handle that?

我只想跟進消費者的即時報價。現在，消費者在他們的汽車中擁有正資產。我認為這使得從他們那裡購買更容易，因為他們每一個都賺錢。但是隨著我們在未來幾年內回歸車輛負資產，你認為這會讓你們更難找到客戶來源嗎？或者，當我們返回負資產時，您如何預期這會影響您的採購能力並通過即時報價取得成功？您可以將其轉入融資，或者您如何處理？

Yes. So Daniel, I mean, surprisingly, there's still folks that have negative equity out there today, albeit it's down just because the prices are up high. But that's an environment that we have lived in for the last almost 30 years. We have consumers coming in with negative equity. Now you've got, obviously, this price appreciation. Is there a risk down the road? That some customers, it may be harder for them because they can't come up with a big enough down payment or whatever.

是的。所以丹尼爾，我的意思是，令人驚訝的是，今天仍然有人持有負資產，儘管只是因為價格上漲而下跌。但這是我們過去近 30 年來一直生活的環境。我們有消費者帶著負資產進入。現在你顯然已經得到了這種價格升值。路上有風險嗎？一些客戶，這對他們來說可能更難，因為他們無法拿出足夠大的首付或其他任何東西。

But again, the way I think about it is -- and Jon talked a little bit about this. If you look at loan-to-value, loan-to-values have actually gone down. People are putting more down payments down. So I think that's a good sign. I think the other thing is all these customers that are buying today, it's not like they're going to all decide to trade in a year from now or 2 years from now or 3 years from now. They're going to be sprinkled throughout time, and we'll manage the business just like we have in the past with other customers that have negative equity. So we feel like we'll be able to manage it both from a sales standpoint, but also to your point, on the buy standpoint as well.

但同樣，我的想法是——喬恩談到了這一點。如果你看一下貸款價值比，貸款價值比實際上已經下降了。人們正在降低更多的首付。所以我認為這是一個好兆頭。我認為另一件事是所有這些今天購買的客戶，並不是說他們都會決定在一年後、兩年後或三年後進行交易。它們會隨著時間的推移而散佈，我們將像過去與其他擁有負資產的客戶一樣管理業務。所以我們覺得我們既可以從銷售的角度來管理它，也可以從購買的角度來管理它。

And we don't have any further questions at this time. I'll hand the call back to Bill for any closing remarks.

我們目前沒有任何進一步的問題。我會把電話轉回給比爾，讓他做結案陳詞。

Great. Thank you, Jess. Well, I want to thank all of you for joining the call today and your questions and your support. I look back, FY '22 was a great year, it's great sales, it's great earnings, it's great market share. We've been making investments and those investments are paying off, and we're really excited about the opportunities ahead of us as we continue to be that positive and disruptive force within the used car industry. And again, I want to thank all of our associates because they are the reason for our success. Appreciate everything that they do on a daily basis, and we will talk again next quarter. Thank you, again, for your time.

偉大的。謝謝你，傑斯。好吧，我要感謝大家今天加入電話會議以及您的問題和支持。回首過去，22 財年是偉大的一年，銷售量大，收益大，市場份額大。我們一直在進行投資，這些投資正在獲得回報，我們對我們面前的機會感到非常興奮，因為我們將繼續成為二手車行業的積極和顛覆性力量。再次，我要感謝我們所有的同事，因為他們是我們成功的原因。欣賞他們每天所做的一切，我們將在下個季度再次討論。再次感謝您的寶貴時間。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2022 CarMax Earnings Release Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，2022 財年第四季度 CarMax 收益發布電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。