Kemper Corp (KMPR) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Kemper's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Constantin and I will be your coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded for replay purposes.

女士們、先生們，下午好，歡迎參加 Kemper 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫康斯坦丁，今天我將擔任您的協調員。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議將會被錄音以供重播。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference call, Michael Marinaccio, Kemper's Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Mr. Marinaccio, you may begin.

現在，我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人，Kemper 公司企業發展和投資者關係副總裁 Michael Marinaccio。馬裡納西奧先生，您可以開始。

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Kemper's discussion of our second quarter 2025 results. This afternoon, you'll hear from Joe Lacher, Kemper's President and Chief Executive Officer; Brad Camden, Kemper's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Matt Hunton, Kemper's Executive Vice President and President of Kemper Auto.

謝謝。大家下午好，歡迎參加 Kemper 對我們 2025 年第二季業績的討論。今天下午，您將聽到 Kemper 總裁兼執行長 Joe Lacher、Kemper 執行副總裁兼財務長 Brad Camden 以及 Kemper 執行副總裁兼 Kemper Auto 總裁 Matt Hunton 的演講。

We'll make a few opening remarks to provide context around our second quarter results followed by a Q&A session. During the interactive portion of the call, our presenters will be joined by Chris Flint, Kemper's Executive Vice President and President of Kemper Life; Duane Sanders, Kemper's Executive Vice President and Chief Claims Officer for P&C; and John Boschelli, Kemper's Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer.

我們將做一些開場白來介紹我們第二季度的業績背景，然後進行問答環節。在電話會議的互動部分，我們的主持人將與 Kemper 執行副總裁兼 Kemper Life 總裁 Chris Flint、Kemper 執行副總裁兼 P&C 首席索賠官 Duane Sanders 以及 Kemper 執行副總裁兼首席投資官 John Boschelli 一起出席。

After the markets closed today, we issued our earnings release, filed our Form 10-Q with the SEC and published our earnings presentation and financial supplement. You can find these documents in the investors section of our website, kemper.com.

今天市場收盤後，我們發布了收益報告，向美國證券交易委員會提交了 10-Q 表，並公佈了收益報告和財務補充報告。您可以在我們網站 kemper.com 的投資者部分找到這些文件。

Our discussion today may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements include, but are not limited to, the company's outlook on its future results of operation and financial condition.

我們今天的討論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款所定義的前瞻性聲明。這些聲明包括但不限於公司對其未來經營業績和財務狀況的展望。

Our actual future results and financial condition may differ materially from these statements. For information on additional risks that may impact these forward-looking statements, please refer to our 2024 Form 10-K and our second quarter earnings release.

我們未來的實際結果和財務狀況可能與這些聲明有重大差異。有關可能影響這些前瞻性陳述的其他風險的信息，請參閱我們的 2024 年 10-K 表格和第二季度收益報告。

This afternoon's discussion also includes non-GAAP financial measures we believe are meaningful to investors. In our financial supplement, earnings presentation and the earnings release, we have defined and reconciled all non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP where required in accordance with SEC rules.

今天下午的討論還包括我們認為對投資者有意義的非公認會計準則財務指標。在我們的財務補充、收益報告和收益發布中，我們已根據美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 規則的要求，將所有非 GAAP 財務指標定義並協調至 GAAP。

You can find each of these documents in the investors section of our website, kemper.com. All comparative references will be the corresponding 2024 period, unless otherwise stated.

您可以在我們網站 kemper.com 的投資者專區找到這些文件。除非另有說明，所有比較參考均以 2024 年為準。

I will now turn the call over to Joe.

現在我將把電話轉給喬。

Thank you, Michael. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm pleased to report we delivered another quarter of strong underlying operating results. This was led by our Specialty Auto business, which once again produced a solid underlying combined ratio and meaningful year-over-year PIF growth.

謝謝你，麥可。大家下午好，感謝大家今天的參與。我很高興地報告，我們又一個季度取得了強勁的基本經營業績。這主要得益於我們的專業汽車業務，該業務再次實現了穩健的綜合比率和有意義的同比 PIF 成長。

Before we dig into the specifics of our results, I'd like to provide some context around the overall auto market competitiveness and more specifically, the specialty auto segment. I believe we're all aware that there's been a hard market for auto in general, over the first half of this year, there's been clear evidence that markets are softening in reverting to more normalized conditions.

在我們深入研究結果的具體細節之前，我想提供一些有關整體汽車市場競爭力，尤其是專業汽車領域的背景資訊。我相信我們都知道，今年上半年汽車市場總體上比較艱難，有明顯的證據表明，市場正在逐漸恢復正常狀態。

As most carriers see combined ratios recovering to more acceptable profitability levels, they're not taking major rate increases. In some cases, they're decreasing rates and increasing underwriting appetite to more aggressively compete for new business.

由於大多數承運商的綜合成本率已恢復至更可接受的盈利水平，因此他們不會大幅提高費率。在某些情況下，他們會降低費率並增加承保意願，以更積極地爭取新業務。

The result of the combination of reduced consumer shopping and more available options when they do shop. Accordingly, the high levels of growth seen by the strongest players are naturally normalizing to more traditional levels.

這是消費者購物減少和購物時可供選擇的選項增加相結合的結果。因此，實力最強的參與者所經歷的高水準成長自然會恢復到更傳統的水準。

Most of us in the industry think and talk about hard, normal and soft market conditions. These descriptions work overall for commercial lines as well as the standard and preferred personal auto market, but they don't really work for the specialty auto segment. As I stated in the past, within specialty auto, you generally see either a hard market or a more normalized market.

我們行業中的大多數人思考和談論的是硬市場條件、正常市場條件和軟市場條件。這些描述總體上適用於商業線以及標準和首選個人汽車市場，但它們並不適用於專業汽車領域。正如我過去所說，在專業汽車領域，你通常會看到一個艱難的市場或一個更規範的市場。

Overall, we don't typically experience a traditional soft market because of our segment's unique characteristics. First, there are many smaller competitors who only operate in a few local geographies. Second, the speed of loss development is typically faster than the standard market.

總體而言，由於我們細分市場的獨特特點，我們通常不會經歷傳統的疲軟市場。首先，有許多規模較小的競爭對手，僅在少數地方開展業務。其次，虧損擴大的速度通常比標準市場更快。

And third, customer policy lifetime tenures are much shorter than the standard market. The combination of these characteristics has several implications. You can't recover short-term irrational pricing over the lifetime of a customer.

第三，客戶保單的終身期限比標準市場短很多。這些特徵的組合具有多種意義。在客戶的整個生命週期內，你無法恢復短期不合理的定價。

Aggressive pricing is seen in results more rapidly and no single competitor can typically soften the overall market with irrationally aggressive activity. In specialty auto, we may experience short-term softness in select geographies but in general, it did not last long or impact the overall market.

激進的定價策略會更快地體現在業績中，並且沒有任何一個競爭對手能夠透過非理性的激進行為來削弱整個市場。在專業汽車領域，我們可能會在部分地區經歷短期疲軟，但總體而言，這種疲軟不會持續很長時間，也不會影響整體市場。

Recall our competitive advantages. We deliver a low-cost value proposition tailored to our unique customer needs. We bring a distinct scale advantage and a deep understanding of our market.

回想一下我們的競爭優勢。我們提供針對我們獨特客戶需求的低成本價值主張。我們擁有獨特的規模優勢和對市場的深刻理解。

This enables us to deliver leading differentiated product sophistication, claims effectiveness and ease of use. We are confident that our competitive advantages will continue to produce attractive long-term profitable growth in a more normal market environment.

這使我們能夠提供領先的差異化產品複雜性、索賠有效性和易用性。我們相信，在更正常的市場環境下，我們的競爭優勢將繼續產生具有吸引力的長期獲利成長。

With this as a backdrop, let's move to page 4 and jump into this quarter's financial results. We delivered a return on adjusted equity of 15%, adjusted book value per share growth of 14% year-over-year and an all-time high trailing 12 month operating cash flow of nearly $600 million.

以此為背景，讓我們翻到第 4 頁，看看本季的財務表現。我們實現了調整後股本回報率 15%、調整後每股帳面價值年增 14% 以及過去 12 個月營運現金流創歷史新高，接近 6 億美元。

Our core businesses continue to perform very well. Specialty Auto generated a 93.5% underlying combined ratio, while producing 8% year-over-year PIF growth and earned premium growth of 17%.

我們的核心業務繼續表現良好。Specialty Auto 的綜合成本率達到 93.5%，而 PIF 較去年同期成長 8%，保費收入成長 17%。

Our private passenger auto business produced an underlying combined ratio and year-over-year growth better than long-term norms, but with somewhat off the hard market highs. Our commercial auto business continued to perform well, and produced an underlying combined ratio of 90%, while growing PIF by 18%.

我們的私人乘用車業務的基本綜合比率和同比增長率均優於長期標準，但略低於市場高點。我們的商用汽車業務持續表現良好，基礎綜合成本率為 90%，而 PIF 成長了 18%。

Here, we reported adverse prior year development of approximately $19 million, which was driven by the general effect of social inflation. When viewed over a rolling four or eight quarter basis, this business consistently produces attractive combined ratios and growth and is a source of continued reliable strength.

在此，我們報告了去年約 1900 萬美元的不利發展，這是由社會通膨的普遍影響所致。從連續四個或八個季度來看，該業務持續產生具有吸引力的綜合比率和成長率，並成為持續可靠實力的來源。

The performance of our alternative investments negatively impacted both our Specialty Auto and Life segment. This quarter, we had some modest noise, which I generally categorize as consistent with the broad marketplace investments volatility.

我們的另類投資的表現對我們的專業汽車和人壽部門產生了負面影響。本季度，我們聽到了一些小噪音，我通常將其歸類為與廣泛的市場投資波動一致。

We continue to maintain a high-quality investment portfolio, and Brad will get into the specifics around this shortly. The business fundamentals underlying our Life segment remains stable. The business continued to produce a strong return on capital and distributable cash flows.

我們將繼續保持高品質的投資組合，布拉德很快就會詳細介紹這一點。我們人壽保險業務的基本面保持穩定。該業務繼續產生強勁的資本回報和可分配現金流。

Lastly, we continue to execute on our multi-quarter balance sheet strengthening. Last quarter, we retired $450 million of debt, bringing our debt-to-cap ratio near our long-term target and our cash flow from operations hit an all-time high.

最後，我們將繼續執行多季度資產負債表強化措施。上個季度，我們償還了 4.5 億美元的債務，使我們的債務與資本比率接近我們的長期目標，我們的經營現金流達到了歷史最高水平。

With a strong balance sheet and healthy liquidity, we've repurchased $80 million of common stock since April 1. Given our expectations around future growth and strong operating metrics, the Board approved an additional $500 million of repurchase authorization, bringing the total available to $550 million. Brad will discuss our financials and share repurchases in more detail.

憑藉強大的資產負債表和健康的流動性，自 4 月 1 日以來我們已經回購了價值 8,000 萬美元的普通股。鑑於我們對未來成長和強勁營運指標的預期，董事會批准了額外的 5 億美元回購授權，使可用總額達到 5.5 億美元。布拉德將更詳細地討論我們的財務狀況和股票回購。

Overall, we're pleased with our second quarter results. With that, I'll turn the call over to Brad.

總體而言，我們對第二季的業績感到滿意。說完這些，我會把電話轉給布萊德。

Thank you, Joe, and good afternoon to everyone. I'll begin with our financial results on page 5. For the quarter, we reported net income of $72.6 million or $1.12 per diluted share and adjusted consolidated net operating income of $84.1 million or $1.30 per diluted share.

謝謝你，喬，大家下午好。我將從第 5 頁開始介紹我們的財務結果。本季度，我們報告的淨收入為 7,260 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 1.12 美元，調整後合併淨營業收入為 8,410 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 1.30 美元。

These results led to an attractive return on adjusted equity of 14.9% and growth in adjusted book value per share of 14.3% year-over-year. As Joe discussed, our businesses continue to deliver strong underlying performance.

這些結果導致調整後股本回報率達到 14.9%，調整後每股帳面價值年增 14.3%。正如喬所討論的，我們的業務繼續保持強勁的基礎表現。

Specialty Auto produced strong growth in policies in force and earned premium and the Life continued to provide steady returns. Overall, our core businesses are performing well. But this quarter, our results were impacted by a few infrequent items.

專業汽車險有效保單數量和保費收入均實現強勁增長，而人壽險則繼續提供穩定的回報。總體而言，我們的核心業務表現良好。但本季度，我們的業績受到了一些不常見項目的影響。

First, Specialty Auto recorded $14 million in adverce prior year development driven by a $19 million reserve increase in our commercial vehicle business. This was primarily related to bodily injury losses. Second, volatility in our alternative investment portfolio pressured net investment income.

首先，由於商用車業務儲備金增加了 1,900 萬美元，Specialty Auto 去年的預付款增加了 1,400 萬美元。這主要與人身傷害損失有關。其次，我們的另類投資組合的波動對淨投資收益帶來壓力。

Let's turn to page 6 to discuss the investment portfolio in more detail. Quarterly net investment income totaled $96 million, coming in below expectations due to lower returns from alternative investments. Not surprisingly, performance in this asset class can be volatile.

讓我們翻到第 6 頁更詳細地討論投資組合。季度淨投資收入總計 9,600 萬美元，由於另類投資回報較低，低於預期。毫不奇怪，此類資產的表現可能會不穩定。

Valuation gains tend to align with marketplace deal activity, which slowed in the second quarter amid broader macroeconomic pressures. As market conditions stabilize, we expect alternative investment performance to improve in the coming quarters.

估值成長往往與市場交易活動保持一致，由於更廣泛的宏觀經濟壓力，第二季市場交易活動有所放緩。隨著市場狀況穩定，我們預計未來幾季另類投資績效將會改善。

The core portfolio, which excludes alternatives, continues to perform well, delivering $98 million of net investment income this quarter. Overall, we continue to maintain a high-quality, well-diversified investment portfolio.

不包括其他選擇的核心投資組合繼續表現良好，本季實現 9,800 萬美元的淨投資收益。總體而言，我們持續保持高品質、多元化的投資組合。

As the investment portfolio grows and as favorable new money rates, we anticipate net investment income to rebound in the second half of the year, averaging approximately $100 million to $105 million per quarter. Moving to page 7. Here, we highlight the strains of our balance sheet and significant financial flexibility.

隨著投資組合的成長和有利的新資金利率，我們預計淨投資收入將在下半年反彈，平均每季約為 1 億至 1.05 億美元。移至第 7 頁。在此，我們強調資產負債表的壓力和顯著的財務彈性。

We maintained $1.1 billion in available liquidity and continue to have well-capitalized insurance subsidiaries. Our debt-to-capital ratio stands at 22.7%, aligning closely with our long-term target. Notably, we generated $587 million in operating cash flow over the past year, marking an all-time high for the company.

我們維持了 11 億美元的可用流動資金，並繼續擁有資本充足的保險子公司。我們的負債資本比率為22.7％，與我們的長期目標非常一致。值得注意的是，我們在過去一年中創造了 5.87 億美元的營運現金流，創下了公司的歷史新高。

Given our strong financial position, let me remind you of our capital deployment priorities. First, we utilized capital to support organic growth. Next, we will fund inorganic opportunities to enhance our platform. And lastly, we will return excess capital to shareholders.

鑑於我們強大的財務狀況，請允許我提醒您我們的資本部署優先事項。首先，我們利用資本支持有機成長。接下來，我們將資助無機機會來增強我們的平台。最後，我們將把多餘的資本還給股東。

As Joe discussed earlier, the Specialty Auto segment is transitioning to a more normal marketplace with attractive and somewhat lower profitable growth opportunities. This evolving environment will require less capital to fund organic growth.

正如喬之前所討論的，專業汽車領域正在向更正常的市場轉型，具有吸引力但利潤率略低的成長機會。這種不斷變化的環境將需要更少的資本來資助有機成長。

With significant financial strength and flexibility and to believe our stock is trading below intrinsic value, we repurchased $80 million in common stocks since April 1, leaving $50 million available under current authorization. This week, the Board approved an additional $500 million share repurchase authorization, bringing the total amount for repurchase to $550 million.

憑藉強大的財務實力和靈活性，並相信我們的股票交易價格低於內在價值，我們自 4 月 1 日以來回購了 8000 萬美元的普通股，根據當前授權，剩餘 5000 萬美元可用。本週，董事會批准了額外 5 億美元的股票回購授權，使回購總額達到 5.5 億美元。

This will enable us to deliver on our capital priorities in this environment. That said, we have no preset time line for share repurchases and plan to execute on them opportunistically.

這將使我們能夠在這種環境下實現我們的資本優先事項。也就是說，我們沒有預設股票回購的時間表，而是規劃擇機執行。

Finally, I want to reiterate that we're well positioned for sustained profitable growth. The strategic investments we made over the past five years have strengthened our capabilities and reinforce our confidence in driving shareholder value.

最後，我想重申，我們已做好實現持續獲利成長的準備。我們在過去五年中進行的策略性投資增強了我們的能力，並增強了我們推動股東價值的信心。

I'll now turn the call over to Matt to discuss the Specialty P&C segment.

現在我將把電話轉給馬特討論專業財產和意外傷害保險部分。

Thank you, Brad, and good afternoon, everyone. Turning to page 8. our Specialty P&C segment produced another quarter of quality underlying results. This business generated a solid underlying combined ratio of 93.6%, up modestly from the first quarter, largely driven by normal seasonal patterns.

謝謝你，布拉德，大家下午好。翻到第 8 頁，我們的特殊財產險和意外險部門又一個季度取得了優質的基本業績。該業務產生了 93.6% 的穩健基礎綜合比率，較第一季略有上升，主要受到正常季節性模式的推動。

Private passenger auto produced 94.5%, while commercial 90.1%. Overall PIF growth for the Specialty business was nearly 8% year-over-year, directing our focus to private passenger auto.

私人乘用車產量為94.5%，商用車產量為90.1%。特種業務的整體 PIF 年成長近 8%，這將我們的重點轉向私人乘用車。

As Joe mentioned, the hard market in the specialty auto business has been receding and we are moving to an overall more normal competitive environment. As you would expect, each state is moving at its own pace.

正如喬所提到的，專用汽車產業的硬市場一直在衰退，我們正在轉向一個整體更正常的競爭環境。正如你所料，每個州都在按照自己的步調前進。

California remains a modestly hard market. Given its unique regulatory environment and the challenges that exist in other lines of business, we do not expect California auto to move to a fully soft market. The marketplace is structured in a way that doesn't drive sustained irrational behavior.

加州仍然是一個略顯艱難的市場。鑑於其獨特的監管環境和其他業務領域的挑戰，我們預計加州汽車市場不會完全疲軟。市場的結構不會引發持續的非理性行為。

We are, however, seeing competitors increasingly reopen. Our products are well positioned and our scale and understanding of this unique state are enabling continued profitable growth.

然而，我們看到競爭對手正越來越多地重新開業。我們的產品定位明確，我們的規模以及對這個獨特州的了解使我們能夠持續獲利成長。

Florida continues to be a very competitive market. When we talked in May, we commented on some aggressive competitor actions and our plans to respond. That response came in June and had the intended positive impact of increasing new business.

佛羅裡達州仍然是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。當我們在五月進行交談時，我們評論了一些激進的競爭對手的行動以及我們的應對計劃。該回應於 6 月做出，並產生了預期的積極影響，即增加新業務。

We saw the benefits in June, and they continued through July. We will continue to build on this momentum to drive profitable growth.

我們在六月就看到了好處，並且這種好處一直持續到七月。我們將繼續利用這一勢頭推動獲利成長。

In Texas, the market conditions continue to operate in a traditional normal fashion on a relative basis, sitting somewhere between California and Florida. Our production has been steadily gaining momentum since we fine-tuned our pricing plans earlier this year.

在德州，市場狀況繼續以相對正常的傳統方式運作，介於加州和佛羅裡達州之間。自從我們今年早些時候調整了定價計劃以來，我們的生產一直在穩步增長。

All other states continue to see attractive growth and profitability and normalizing market conditions. Overall, we recognize the ongoing market dynamics and are proactively positioning ourselves for long-term profitable growth.

所有其他州繼續實現有吸引力的成長和盈利，並實現正常化的市場狀況。總體而言，我們認識到當前的市場動態，並正在積極定位自己以實現長期獲利成長。

Shifting to commercial auto. This business again saw very strong underlying profitability with PIF growth of nearly 18%. The market backdrop remains consistent and success in this line requires a deep understanding of underwriting dynamics.

轉向商用汽車。該業務再次實現了非常強勁的潛在獲利能力，PIF 成長了近 18%。市場背景保持一致，要在這一領域取得成功，需要深入了解承保動態。

Our long-term competitive advantages continue to position us well to capitalize here. We are confident in our ability to profitably grow this business. Again, overall, we are positioning ourselves to compete in a more normalized market environment.

我們的長期競爭優勢將繼續使我們處於有利地位。我們有信心能夠實現該業務的獲利成長。再次強調，整體而言，我們正處於更規範化的市場環境中競爭的定位。

That said, as a reminder, Specialty Auto has a more pronounced seasonal shopping pattern than standard auto. Customer shopping activity decreases in the second half of the year, particularly in the fourth quarter. This is normal, and we anticipate that it will occur this year.

話雖如此，需要提醒的是，專業汽車的季節性購物模式比標準汽車更明顯。下半年，尤其是第四季度，顧客購物活動減少。這是正常的，我們預計今年就會發生。

With that said, the business is delivering solid profitable growth enabled by our competitive advantages, scale and focus. We are in a position of strength and remain optimistic in our long-term outlook.

話雖如此，憑藉我們的競爭優勢、規模和專注力，我們的業務正在實現穩健的獲利成長。我們處於優勢地位，對長期前景保持樂觀。

I'll now turn the call back to Joe to cover the life business and closing comments.

現在我將把電話轉回給喬，讓他談談人壽保險業務並做最後的評論。

Thank you, Matt. Turning to our Life business on page 9. As noted earlier, the underlying business continued to generate stable operating results. Mortality and persistency remained in line with historical trends and the Life business continues to generate strong return on capital and distributable cash flows.

謝謝你，馬特。請翻到第 9 頁討論我們的人壽業務。如前所述，基礎業務持續產生穩定的經營績效。死亡率和持續性與歷史趨勢保持一致，人壽業務繼續產生強勁的資本回報和可分配現金流。

Turning to page 10. In closing, I'd like to reiterate our highlights for the quarter. First, Kemper delivered solid operating results with an adjusted ROE of 15% and year-over-year adjusted book value per share growth of 14%.

翻到第 10 頁。最後，我想重申本季的亮點。首先，Kemper 取得了穩健的經營業績，調整後的 ROE 為 15%，調整後的每股帳面價值年增 14%。

Specialty Auto continued to produce strong underlying results with solid year-over-year PIF growth and an underlying combined ratio of 93.6%. Our competitive advantages continue to give us confidence in our ability to navigate the normalization of the auto market.

特種汽車業務持續取得強勁的基本業績，PIF 年成長穩健，基本綜合比率為 93.6%。我們的競爭優勢繼續使我們對引領汽車市場正常化的能力充滿信心。

And finally, our capital and liquidity position provides significant financial flexibility. Our debt-to-cap ratio is near our long-term target range. Operating cash flows hit an all-time high, we repurchased $80 million of stock since April 1 and now have the authorization to repurchase up to another $550 million.

最後，我們的資本和流動性狀況提供了顯著的財務靈活性。我們的債務與資本比率接近我們的長期目標範圍。經營現金流創歷史新高，自 4 月 1 日以來我們已回購了 8,000 萬美元的股票，現在我們被授權再回購最多 5.5 億美元的股票。

I want to take a moment to thank our entire Kemper team for their efforts. These results would not be possible without their commitment and hard work towards achieving our goals. We remain confident in our ability to create long-term shareholder value.

我想花點時間感謝我們整個 Kemper 團隊的努力。如果沒有他們為實現我們的目標所做的承諾和努力，這些成果是不可能實現的。我們對自己創造長期股東價值的能力充滿信心。

With that, operator, we may now take questions.

接線員，現在我們可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼（Andrew Kligerman），TD Cowen。

So the first question is around PIF growth and pricing, kind of a dual question with written premium up 7% and up 8% year-over-year. The question is, one, does that imply pricing came down? And could you give color on that?

因此，第一個問題是關於 PIF 的成長和定價，這是一個雙重問題，即已承保保費年增 7% 和 8%。問題是，第一，這是否意味著價格下降了？您能對此做出詳細說明嗎？

And two, PIF is actually down 70 basis points sequentially. Are you kind of putting the brakes on things a little bit as we move into the second half.

其次，PIF 實際上連續下降了 70 個基點。當我們進入下半場時，您是否會稍微放慢腳步？

Sure, Andrew. This is Joe. I'll take those. A couple of different things. Let's break them apart. The PIF versus written premium difference is really modest issues around geographic mix. It's no significant material change in any premium rate filings.

當然，安德魯。我是喬。我來接手這些。有幾件不同的事情。讓我們把它們分開。PIF 與已承保保費之間的差異實際上是地理組合方面的小問題。任何保費率申報均未發生重大實質變化。

There's modest changes in certain geographies, but no significant change. I view that as more of an anomaly. Second, we've continued, we've historically talked to you guys about year-over-year PIF growth and encourage you not to be looking at sequential quarter because there's such seasonality differences in Specialty Auto.

某些地區發生了輕微變化，但沒有顯著變化。我認為這更像是一種異常現象。其次，我們一直在與你們討論 PIF 的同比增長，並鼓勵你們不要只關注連續季度，因為專業汽車行業存在季節性差異。

We specifically pointed you to a sequential quarter PIF when we were going from declining to growing so that you would see that as a leading indicator of a material change, not a sort of rolling four quarters. We are past that. We mentioned that last quarter.

當我們從下降轉為成長時，我們特別向您指出了連續季度的 PIF，以便您將其視為重大變化的領先指標，而不是滾動的四個季度。我們已經過去了。我們上個季度提到過這一點。

If you spend your time looking at sequential quarter PIF growth, you're going to get tied up in seasonality issues. Matt made a couple of comments on that. The back half of the year in specialty auto has a significant seasonality difference to the first half of the year, that's normal.

如果您花時間專注於連續季度的 PIF 成長，那麼您就會陷入季節性問題的困擾。馬特對此發表了一些評論。專業車下半年與上半年有明顯的季節性差異，這是正常的。

That's happened for the last 20 years. We expect it to continue to happen. It will occur. It's got nothing to do with us putting on the brakes. We're not putting on the brakes. We're still happy, open for business, and anticipate that we're going to be a profitably growing business.

這種情況已經持續了 20 年了。我們預計這種情況將繼續發生。它會發生。這與我們踩煞車無關。我們不會踩煞車。我們仍然很高興，繼續營業，並期望我們將成為一家盈利不斷增長的企業。

What you're seeing in PIF is exactly what most of our competitors have been talking about. We've been shifting as an industry from a hard market to a more normal market. The double-digit growth that folks experienced in the last year or 1.5 years are not long-term normal environments.

您在 PIF 中看到的正是我們的大多數競爭對手所談論的。我們的產業正在從一個艱難的市場轉向一個更正常的市場。人們在過去一年或一年半中經歷的兩位數成長並不是長期正常的環境。

They're an anomaly of a hard market. I think [Progressive] had a call this morning and very aggressively reminded everybody of that, and we're competing in the same markets. Carriers are opening again. They're active, and that will cause that outsized growth to normalize.

它們是艱難市場中的一個異常現象。我認為 [Progressive] 今天早上已經打過電話並非常積極地提醒大家這一點，我們在同一市場上競爭。航空公司正在重新開業。他們很活躍，這將導致超額成長正常化。

What we expect to see is what we've described long term to the investor community that in a normal Specialty Auto environment, we expect to see low to mid-single-digit PIF growth on a year-over-year basis. That's somewhere in 3% to 7% range depending on sort of where we are in any given 90-day period. And we would expect that as a good modeling view long term from a PIF perspective.

我們期望看到的是我們向投資者群體長期描述的情況，即在正常的專業汽車環境中，我們預計 PIF 同比增長將達到低至中等個位數。這大約在 3% 到 7% 的範圍內，具體取決於我們在任何給定的 90 天期間的位置。我們期望從 PIF 角度來看，這是一個長期良好的建模視圖。

We would expect maintenance rate largely to be continuing to work its way through the system. And we would expect, as we said, combined ratios over a number of quarters will migrate their way back into that 93.5% to 94.5%, 95% range, which was where they've been in the long term.

我們預計維護率將在很大程度上繼續在系統中發揮作用。正如我們所說，我們預計，未來幾季的綜合比率將回到 93.5% 至 94.5% 或 95% 的範圍內，這是長期以來的水平。

As again, a reminder, if we were thinking pre-pandemic '17, '18, '19, '20, a 93.5% and an 8% PIF growth, we all have been doing a happy dance. It's an attractive set of numbers for a long-term normal market, it just looks a little off compared to exceptionally high numbers, which we've pointed out to folks is not going to continue.

再次提醒一下，如果我們考慮到疫情前的 2017、2018、2019、20 年，PIF 成長率分別為 93.5% 和 8%，那麼我們所有人都會感到很高興。對於長期正常的市場來說，這是一組很有吸引力的數字，但與異常高的數字相比，它看起來有點偏離，我們已經向人們指出，這種情況不會持續下去。

And not because we didn't want it to, because the market will normalize and competitors will work their way in. So it's in no way shape or form us tapping brakes or intending to slow down.

這並不是因為我們不想這樣，而是因為市場將會正常化，競爭對手將會進入。因此，我們絕對不會踩剎車或故意減速。

That was super helpful, Joe. And then just my follow-up is around your confidence in the loss results going forward. So private passenger auto at [944] calendar year is getting close to that [95]. Do you think you could hold it there?

喬，這太有幫助了。接下來我想問的是，你對未來虧損結果的信心如何。因此，[944] 日曆年的私人乘用車數量已接近此水平[95]。你認為你能撐得住嗎？

And then with the $90 million-ish charge in commercial auto? Or are you confident that you've kind of nipped it and we won't see much, if anything, there going forward?

那麼商用汽車的費用高達 9,000 萬美元左右嗎？或者您是否確信您已經將其扼殺在搖籃中，並且我們不會看到太多進展，如果有的話？

Sure. I'm going to break those apart into two distinct buckets. The general combined ratio guidance we gave of maybe a 93.5% 95% normal range, if it peaks above 95%, we don't start getting an enormous (inaudible) for a quarter or two.

當然。我將把它們分成兩個不同的類別。我們給出的一般綜合比率指導可能是 93.5% 95% 的正常範圍，如果峰值超過 95%，我們不會在一兩個季度內開始出現巨大的（聽不清楚）情況。

We've got really an aggressive hard stop at a 96%. There's normally in this business 50, 70 basis points on any given quarter that can move around. I'd expect us to be in that range and in that zone and don't have a particular (inaudible) around one quarter being at the edge of that, it will sort of stay in that zone, and I would expect it to be there.

我們在 96% 時確實進行了一次積極的硬停止。在這個產業中，任何一個季度通常都會有 50 到 70 個基點的波動。我希望我們處於那個範圍和區域內，並且沒有特定的（聽不清楚）大約四分之一處於那個邊緣，它會停留在那個區域內，我希望它會在那裡。

The second piece is around the [$90] million that we talked about largely in commercial vehicle. We saw a modest uptick in a range of accident years, probably driven by where you -- collectively as an industry you described as social inflation.

第二部分是關於我們談論的主要用於商用車的 9000 萬美元。我們看到一系列事故年份都出現了小幅上升，這可能是由您所描述的整個行業社會通膨所致。

We made some balance sheet adjustments for that. It was an abnormally active quarter. We made some adjustments as a result of that. And that includes our current accident year pick in both CV and private passenger auto to reflect that environment.

我們對此做了一些資產負債表調整。這是一個異常活躍的季度。因此我們做出了一些調整。其中包括我們目前在商用車和私人乘用車中挑選的事故年份，以反映這種環境。

So that may have been if you think about the combined ratio in private passenger auto, a little bit of normal seasonality in the second quarter, that's normal to see it up a bit and a bit of us pushing that current accident year (inaudible) to take into account that environmental issue. We believe we've got it right there.

因此，如果您考慮私人乘用車的綜合比率，那麼第二季度可能會出現一些正常的季節性變化，出現略微上升是正常的，而且我們會將當前的事故年份（聽不清楚）考慮在內，以考慮到環境問題。我們相信我們已經做到了。

Could there be a little bit more noise in any given quarter? Yes, maybe. But what we tried to discuss and try to comment on in commercial vehicle, is it seems like every four, six, eight quarters, you get one or two in there that has a little bit of a pop.

任何一個季度中是否還會出現更多噪音？是的，也許吧。但我們試圖討論並評論商用車的情況是，似乎每四、六、八個季度就會有一兩款車型出現輕微的流行。

If you look at it on a rolling four to eight quarter basis, that's a very attractive business for us. We have a high degree of comfort in it and we respond if we get a little bit of anomalous noise in a quarter appropriately, but it doesn't change our fundamental positive view on the outlook of that business.

如果以四到八個季度為一個連續週期來看，這對我們來說是一項非常有吸引力的業務。我們對此非常放心，如果某個季度出現一點異常噪音，我們就會做出適當的反應，但這不會改變我們對該業務前景的基本正面看法。

Mitch Rubin, Raymond James.

米奇·魯賓、雷蒙·詹姆斯。

This is Mitch on behalf of [Greg Peters]. So I wanted to ask about the higher minimum limits in California. And I was wondering if you could quantify the impact on premiums this quarter.

我是 Mitch，代表[格雷格·彼得斯]。所以我想問一下加州更高的最低限額。我想知道您是否可以量化本季對保費的影響。

Sure. The minimum limits in California, that would have had and I'm apologizing, we're trying to get you the exact number. It would have had roughly the same impact you would have seen in the first quarter for that. And our policies are running six month policies, so that largely its impact will have worked its way through the book.

當然。加州的最低限額本來就有，我很抱歉，我們正在努力為您提供準確的數字。它的影響與第一季大致相同。我們的政策是實施六個月的政策，因此其影響很大程度上將透過整本書體現出來。

This is the last quarter that anomaly will have occurred. I apologize, Mitch, we're going to have to get back to you on the specific number on that. I'm thinking I've got it at the top of my head, but I'm certain I'm going to be off on a little bit, let us get back to you.

這是出現異常現象的最後一個季度。抱歉，米奇，我們必須回覆您有關該問題的具體數字。我想我已經記住了，但我肯定會說得有點離題，讓我們稍後再回覆您。

It's consistent with what we saw in the first quarter. And given our policies are virtually 100% six months in California, it's worked its way through.

這與我們在第一季看到的情況一致。鑑於我們的政策在加州幾乎 100% 都是六個月，所以它已經奏效了。

All right. My follow-up is on retention and how that's been differing by state.

好的。我的後續問題是保留率以及各州之間的差異。

Yeah, Matt, why don't you go ahead and take a shot at that.

是的，馬特，為什麼不繼續嘗試呢？

Yeah, Mitch, the texture varies a bit by state. Some of the commentary we left with. We started with earlier on California. California market continues to be on a relatively hard basis. We're seeing limited supply relative to historical trends there.

是的，米奇，不同州的質地略有不同。我們留下了一些評論。我們之前從加州開始。加州市場繼續處於相對艱難的境地。與歷史趨勢相比，我們發現供應有限。

So retention generally is holding in that marketplace. Florida is -- we're seeing maybe a modest decline in policy life expectancy, and that's normal as agents are re-shopping books as carrier premiums are shifting down, but it's not moving materially and changing our prospectus on that state.

因此，在該市場中，保留率通常保持不變。佛羅裡達州——我們看到保單預期壽命可能略有下降，這是正常的，因為隨著承運人保費下降，代理商正在重新購買保險，但這並沒有發生實質性的變化，也不會改變我們對該州的招股說明書。

Texas is pretty stable. We are seeing less shopping in the marketplace more recently. So likely, that will abate a bit as the business sort of rolls forward. But retention overall has been pretty stable.

德克薩斯州相當穩定。最近我們發現市面上的購物越來越少。因此，隨著業務的推進，這種情況可能會減弱。但整體而言，保留率相當穩定。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

保羅紐瑟姆、派珀桑德勒。

One maybe follow-up on the adverse development. Was there anything besides just severity going up? Like was there any geographic pattern to it? Was there anything just purely liability-related things?

人們可能會對不利的發展採取後續行動。除了嚴重程度增加之外，還有其他什麼嗎？例如它是否存在地理模式？是否存在純粹與責任有關的事？

Or was there some health care inflation in there. I think you said bodily injury. Just want to make sure we got all the pieces there on the development --

或者其中是否存在一些醫療保健通膨。我認為你說的是身體傷害。只是想確保我們已掌握了開發過程中的所有信息--

Sure, Paul. This is Brad. Great question. Specifically in CV BI, where we're seeing the adverse development, it was in our large loss bucket, which is a very low frequency, higher severity coverage or loss bucket. It's important to articulate those items because it's not an underwriting issue.

當然，保羅。這是布拉德。好問題。特別是在 CV BI 中，我們看到了不利的發展，它處於我們的大損失區間，這是一個頻率非常低、嚴重程度覆蓋率或損失區間。闡明這些事項很重要，因為這不是承保問題。

There's no significant increase in frequency. It's simply a result of social inflation over time. And these things are tend to be two or three years old as they develop. And in the more recent accident years, we strengthened the balance sheet as a result of that.

頻率沒有明顯增加。這只是社會通貨膨脹隨著時間的推移而產生的結果。這些東西的發展往往需要兩、三年的時間。在最近事故頻傳的年份，我們因此加強了資產負債表。

So the business overall continues to perform extremely well, grew significantly year-over-year, and an underlying combined ratio in the low 90s, very strong overall, just more episodic, large loss events. And as Joe said, more litigation activity in the second quarter than we've seen in the past.

因此，業務整體持續表現優異，年比大幅成長，綜合成本率在 90% 左右，整體非常強勁，只是偶發性大額損失事件增加。正如喬所說，第二季的訴訟活動比過去任何時候都要多。

And then a related question and a big-picture question related to the combined ratio thoughts that you've had over the cycle. We're kind of in the zone for a normal underwriting profitability.

然後是一個相關問題和一個與您在整個週期內所考慮的綜合比率想法相關的大問題。我們的承保獲利能力處於正常水準。

And I think we're sort of in the zone from a debt-to-capital perspective, are there pieces there that would suggest that maybe this is sort of essentially in your zone for return on equity as well? Or is there some possibility for improved ROE over the cycle.

我認為從債務資本比率的角度來看我們處於這個區域，是否有跡象表明這可能也基本上處於您的股本回報率區域內？或者說 ROE 在整個週期內是否有可能提高。

Yeah. There's always some variation in there, Paul. We look at our adjusted ROE is there's a significant amount of goodwill on the balance sheet at being roughly 15%. That's a reasonably attractive spot. I think it can be and has, over time, moved up a bit.

是的。這裡面總是存在著一些變化，保羅。我們查看調整後的 ROE 發現，資產負債表上的商譽佔比很大，約 15%。那是一個相當有吸引力的地方。我認為可以，而且隨著時間的推移，已經有所上升。

And I think it's in a reasonable zone with some expected volatility there. The other thing I'd point you to and maybe you were going to ask about it next and I maybe jumping the gun. But there's a significant share repurchase authorization that came out with the Board.

我認為它處於一個合理的區域，預計會有一些波動。我想指出的另一件事是，也許您接下來會問到它，而我可能操之過急。但董事會已頒布了一項重要的股票回購授權。

I think it's actually at $500 million, it's equal to the last two reauthorizations or authorizations combined. It amounts to when you include the $50 million remaining and the $80 million we bought in the last 90 days, roughly 16% of the current market cap of the company. So it's a fairly significant opportunity there.

我認為實際上是 5 億美元，相當於最近兩次重新授權或授權的總和。如果算上剩下的 5000 萬美元和我們在過去 90 天內購買的 8000 萬美元，這個數字大約相當於該公司當前市值的 16%。所以這是一個相當重要的機會。

We believe the returns are good in this business. We have a healthy balance sheet, a healthy liquidity. I think the stock is somewhat undervalued and we're going to opportunistically buy and aggressively defend it in the marketplace because we think there's sort of an unrecognized upside there.

我們相信這項業務的回報是好的。我們的資產負債表健康，流動性健康。我認為該股票有點被低估了，我們將抓住機會買入並在市場上積極捍衛它，因為我們認為它有一種未被認識到的優勢。

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call over to Joe Lacher for closing comments. Sir, please go ahead.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉給喬·拉赫爾 (Joe Lacher) 來做最後發言。先生，請繼續。

Thank you again everybody for your time and your attention. We look forward to talking to you next quarter and look forward to continue to be strong, thoughtful competitors in the marketplace.

再次感謝大家的時間和關注。我們期待下個季度與您交談，並期待繼續成為市場上強大、有思想的競爭對手。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。