Kemper Corp (KMPR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Kemper's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Konstantine, and I will be your coordinator today. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，下午好，歡迎參加 Kemper 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫康斯坦丁，今天我將擔任您的協調員。（操作員指示）

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded for replay purposes.

提醒一下，本次電話會議將會被錄音以供重播。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference call, Michael Marinaccio, Kemper's Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Mr. Marinaccio, you may begin.

現在，我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人，Kemper 公司企業發展和投資者關係副總裁 Michael Marinaccio。馬裡納西奧先生，您可以開始。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Kemper's discussion of our first quarter of 2025 results. This afternoon you'll hear from Joe Lacher, Kemper's President and Chief Executive Officer; Brad Camden, Kemper's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Matt Hunton, Kemper's Executive Vice President and President of Kemper Auto.

謝謝您，接線生。大家下午好，歡迎參加 Kemper 對我們 2025 年第一季業績的討論。今天下午，您將聽到 Kemper 總裁兼執行長 Joe Lacher、Kemper 執行副總裁兼財務長 Brad Camden 以及 Kemper 執行副總裁兼 Kemper Auto 總裁 Matt Hunton 的演講。

We'll make a few opening remarks to provide context around our first-quarter results followed by a Q&A session.

我們將做一些開場白來介紹我們第一季的業績背景，然後進行問答環節。

During the interactive portion of the call, our presenters will be joined by Chris Flint, Kemper's Executive Vice President and President of Kemper Life; Duane Sanders, Kemper's Executive Vice President and Chief Claims Officer for P&C; and John Boschelli, Kemper's Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer.

在電話會議的互動部分，我們的主持人將與 Kemper 執行副總裁兼 Kemper Life 總裁 Chris Flint、Kemper 執行副總裁兼 P&C 首席索賠官 Duane Sanders 以及 Kemper 執行副總裁兼首席投資官 John Boschelli 一起出席。

Today, we issued our earnings release, filed our Form 10-Q with the SEC, and published our earnings presentation and financial supplements. You can find these documents in the Investors section of our website, kemper.com.

今天，我們發布了收益報告，向美國證券交易委員會提交了 10-Q 表，並公佈了收益報告和財務補充文件。您可以在我們的網站 kemper.com 的投資者部分找到這些文件。

Our discussion today may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements include, but are not limited to, the company's outlook on its future results of operation and financial conditions.

我們今天的討論可能包含 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案安全港條款所定義的前瞻性聲明。這些聲明包括但不限於公司對其未來經營業績和財務狀況的展望。

Our actual future results and financial condition may differ materially from these statements. For information on additional risks that may impact these forward-looking statements, please refer to our 2024 Form 10-K and our first-quarter earnings release.

我們未來的實際結果和財務狀況可能與這些聲明有重大差異。有關可能影響這些前瞻性陳述的其他風險的信息，請參閱我們的 2024 年 10-K 表格和第一季度收益報告。

This afternoon's discussion also includes non-GAAP financial measures we believe are meaningful to investors. In our financial supplement, earnings presentation, and earnings release, we've defined and reconciled all non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP where required in accordance with SEC rules. You can find each of these documents in the investor section of our website, kemper.com.

今天下午的討論還包括我們認為對投資者有意義的非公認會計準則財務指標。在我們的財務補充、收益報告和收益發布中，我們已根據美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 規則的要求，將所有非 GAAP 財務指標與 GAAP 進行了定義和協調。您可以在我們網站 kemper.com 的投資者部分找到這些文件。

All comparative references will be to the corresponding 2024 period unless otherwise stated. I will now turn the call over to Joe.

除非另有說明，所有比較參考均以 2024 年相應期間為準。現在我將把電話轉給喬。

Thank you, Michael. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm proud to report that we delivered another quarter of very strong financial results, led by continued robust profitable growth in our Specialty Auto business. While we'll spend time drilling into these results, I know we're all aware that right now, we live in interesting times. We'll talk about that, too.

謝謝你，麥可。大家下午好，感謝大家今天的參與。我很自豪地報告，我們又取得了非常強勁的財務業績，這得益於我們專業汽車業務繼續強勁的盈利增長。雖然我們會花時間深入研究這些結果，但我知道我們都意識到，現在我們生活在一個有趣的時代。我們也會談論這個。

So today, we're going to do three things: first, review our first-quarter results; second, discuss the current economic environment, including tariffs, our capacity to respond, and our associated resilience; and third, discuss our near-term outlook.

所以今天，我們要做三件事：第一，回顧我們的第一季業績；第二，討論當前的經濟環境，包括關稅、我們的應對能力以及相關的彈性；第三，討論我們的近期前景。

Now let's move to page 4 and jump into our first quarter results. We delivered net income of $100 million, a return on equity of 14% and a return on adjusted equity of 21%. Book value per share and adjusted book value per share grew by approximately 13% and 16% year over year, respectively.

現在讓我們翻到第 4 頁，看看第一季的業績。我們實現了淨收入 1 億美元、股本回報率 14% 和調整後股本回報率 21%。每股帳面價值和調整後每股帳面價值分別較去年同期成長約 13% 和 16%。

We returned our debt-to-cap ratio to the low 20s and we delivered a trailing 12-month operating cash flow of roughly $520 million, which is quickly returning to our all-time peak levels.

我們將債務與資本比率恢復到 20% 以下，並實現了過去 12 個月的營運現金流約為 5.2 億美元，這一數字正在迅速恢復到歷史最高水平。

Our core businesses continue to perform very well. Specialty Auto generated a healthy 92% underlying combined ratio while producing strong PIF growth of nearly 14% year over year. Written premiums grew a very significant 24%, foreshadowing a similar increase in earned premiums in future periods.

我們的核心業務繼續表現良好。Specialty Auto 的綜合成本率達到了健康的 92%，同時 PIF 也實現了同比近 14% 的強勁成長。已賺保費大幅增加了 24%，預示未來期間已賺保費也將出現類似的成長。

We continue to see strong demand for our products and expect significant growth to persist. Matt will provide more texture on this later.

我們繼續看到市場對我們產品的強勁需求，並預計大幅成長將持續下去。馬特稍後會提供更多有關此內容的內容。

The business fundamentals underlying our life segment remains stable. The business continued to produce strong return on capital and distributable cash flows.

我們的人壽保險業務的基本面保持穩定。該業務繼續產生強勁的資本回報和可分配現金流。

As mentioned earlier, we continue to further strengthen our capital and liquidity position. Brad will discuss our financial results in more detail later, but overall, we're very pleased with our first quarter results.

如前所述，我們繼續進一步加強我們的資本和流動性狀況。布拉德稍後將更詳細地討論我們的財務業績，但總體而言，我們對第一季的業績非常滿意。

Moving to our second topic, I want to acknowledge there's a lot of macroeconomic noise in the market. especially regarding tariffs. The President made clear his affinity for tariffs while on the Canon Trail. As such, we've been taking their potential impact into account since his election last November.

談到我們的第二個話題，我想承認市場上有許多宏觀經濟噪音，特別是有關關稅的噪音。總統在卡農之路上明確表達了他對關稅的傾向。因此，自去年 11 月他當選以來，我們一直在考慮其潛在影響。

We believe Kemper is fairly tariff resilient for several reasons. Let's walk through them. First, tariffs do not change long-term ongoing inflation but rather have a onetime upward movement. Tariff delays, existing parts inventories and similar factors should spread the loss cost impact over several quarters, allowing for a reasonable response time.

我們認為 Kemper 具有相當強的關稅抵禦能力，原因如下。讓我們來看一下。首先，關稅不會改變長期持續的通膨，只會帶來一次性的上漲。關稅延遲、現有零件庫存和類似因素應將損失成本影響分散到幾個季度，從而留出合理的反應時間。

Second, tariffs principally impact the vehicle damage component of auto loss cost and not bodily injury. In broad terms, about half of our loss costs relate to bodily injury and therefore, are not tariff-impacted. Of the half related to vehicle damage, about two-thirds of that is related to the vehicle itself and replacement parts.

其次，關稅主要影響汽車損失成本中的車輛損壞部分，而不是人身傷害。廣義上講，我們的損失成本中約有一半與人身傷害有關，因此不受關稅影響。在與車輛損壞相關的一半中，約有三分之二與車輛本身及其更換零件有關。

The balance relates to things like body shop labor rates, rental car expenses, towing charges and other non-part costs. Together, this means that only about one-thirds of our loss costs are directly exposed to potential tariff-related cost increases.

餘額與車身修理廠人工費、租車費用、拖吊費和其他非零件成本有關。總的來說，這意味著我們的損失成本中只有約三分之一直接受到潛在關稅相關成本增加的影響。

This weighting is both driven by and further enhanced by the nature of our Specialty Auto book of business. About half of our customers by liability-only coverage, meaning we do not cover first-party vehicle damage. The majority of our customers buy policies with minimum limits thus further capping our exposure to third-party damage.

這種權重既受到我們專業汽車業務性質的驅動，也受到其進一步加強。我們大約有一半的客戶只購買責任險，這意味著我們不承保第一方車輛損壞。我們的大多數客戶都購買最低限額的保險，這進一步限制了我們遭受第三方損害的風險。

Third, we are starting from a very strong position with a low 90s combined ratio and significant growth. We are very well prepared to navigate the pressure and remain within our long-term margin and growth ranges.

第三，我們的起步非常強勁，90 年代的綜合成本率較低，而且成長顯著。我們已經做好充分準備來應對壓力並維持我們的長期利潤和成長範圍。

And finally, we are well positioned to quickly respond to ultimate loss cost impacts. In private passenger auto, we utilized six-month policy terms for over 90% of our in-force and 95% of our new business policies. This means our book is highly responsive to any necessary price increases.

最後，我們已做好準備，快速應對最終損失成本的影響。在私人乘用車保險領域，超過 90% 的現行保單和 95% 的新業務保單均採用六個月的保單期限。這意味著我們的書對任何必要的價格上漲都具有高度的回應能力。

There's broad market awareness, including with the insurance departments of tariffs and their potential impact on loss costs. This impact will be readily visible, and we are confident that insurance departments will respond appropriately with ordinary course rate filings, and substantially all the non-rate tools we utilized in recent years are currently available to protect the book as any needed rate increases move through the system.

市場普遍認識到關稅及其對損失成本的潛在影響，包括保險部門。這種影響將顯而易見，我們相信保險部門將透過正常的費率申報做出適當的反應，並且我們近年來使用的幾乎所有非費率工具目前都可以用於在任何必要的費率上漲通過系統時保護帳簿。

We can respond quickly. Matt will further comment on some of these topics later. Again, we believe we are reasonably tariff resilient and are well positioned to successfully navigate these interesting times.

我們可以快速做出反應。馬特稍後將對其中一些主題進一步發表評論。再次，我們相信我們具有合理的關稅彈性，並且能夠成功度過這些有趣的時期。

Turning to our third topic, let me comment on our outlook. We have a very focused set of specialty businesses with refined sustainable competitive advantages. These businesses are favorably positioned to deliver profitable growth throughout all parts of the underwriting cycle.

談到我們的第三個主題，讓我評論一下我們的展望。我們擁有一系列高度集中的專業業務，具有精細的可持續競爭優勢。這些業務具有有利條件，可以在承保週期的各個部分實現獲利成長。

We're in a strong financial position, a low 90s combined ratio, 24% written premium growth, strong returns on capital and growth in book value per share. Our auto businesses have solid tariff resiliency and possess the capacity to nimbly and swiftly respond to any likely tariff-related cost impacts.

我們的財務狀況良好，90 年代綜合成本率較低，保費成長率為 24%，資本回報率強勁，每股帳面價值也在成長。我們的汽車業務具有強大的關稅彈性，並有能力靈活、迅速地應對任何可能與關稅相關的成本影響。

Bringing these factors all together, we remain confident in our ability to manage the business within our long-term margin and growth ranges.

綜合考慮這些因素，我們仍然有信心在長期利潤和成長範圍內管理業務。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Brad.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給布萊德。

Thank you, Joe, and good afternoon. I'll begin with our financials on page 5. For the quarter, we reported net income of $99.7 million or $1.54 per diluted share and adjusted consolidated net operating income of $106.4 million or $1.65 per diluted share.

謝謝你，喬，下午好。我將從第 5 頁開始介紹我們的財務狀況。本季度，我們報告的淨收入為 9,970 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 1.54 美元，調整後合併淨營業收入為 1.064 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 1.65 美元。

These results continue to demonstrate that our businesses are strong and are creating significant value for our shareholders. As a reminder, two key metrics we use to track our performance, our return on adjusted equity and adjusted book value per share growth.

這些結果繼續表明我們的業務強勁並為我們的股東創造了巨大的價值。提醒一下，我們使用兩個關鍵指標來追蹤我們的業績，即調整後股本回報率和調整後每股帳面價值成長。

Return on adjusted equity was a healthy 21% and growth in adjusted book value per share was solid 16% year-over-year. These metrics demonstrate the strength of our performance and the efficiency of our model.

調整後股本回報率達到健康的 21%，調整後每股帳面價值年增 16%。這些指標證明了我們性能的強大和模型的效率。

Moving to page 6. Here, we highlight the strength of our balance sheet. Our capital and liquidity positions are excellent and are supported by a healthy balance sheet with wealth-funded insurance entities.

移至第 6 頁。在此，我們強調我們的資產負債表的實力。我們的資本和流動性狀況良好，並得到財富資助的保險實體的健康資產負債表的支持。

Over the past year, we generated $520 million in operating cash flow, approaching the all-time highs from the 2018 and 2019 time frame. We anticipate continued operating cash flow growth and expect to exceed the all-time high with trailing 12-month cash flows exceeding $600 million in the second quarter.

在過去的一年裡，我們創造了 5.2 億美元的營運現金流，接近 2018 年和 2019 年的歷史最高水準。我們預計經營現金流將繼續成長，並預計第二季過去 12 個月的現金流將超過 6 億美元，創歷史新高。

Our cash flows and operating performance provided us the opportunity to do two things. First, it enabled a repayment of $450 million of senior debt in February. This improved our debt-to-capital ratio to 22.9%, which is approaching our long-term target range and represents an impressive 8.1 point improvement since last quarter.

我們的現金流和經營績效為我們提供了做兩件事的機會。首先，它使得2月份能夠償還4.5億美元的優先債務。這使我們的債務資本比率提高到 22.9%，接近我們的長期目標範圍，並且自上個季度以來提高了 8.1 個百分點。

Second, it allowed us to repurchase $4 million of common stock during the quarter. We have approximately $130 million left in our share repurchase authorization and continue to believe our stock represents an attractive value.

其次，它使我們能夠在本季回購價值 400 萬美元的普通股。我們的股票回購授權中還剩下約 1.3 億美元，我們仍然相信我們的股票具有有吸引力的價值。

Overall, we have significant financial flexibility to support organic growth, navigate market volatility, pay shareholder dividends and interest and repurchase additional shares.

總體而言，我們擁有相當大的財務靈活性，可以支持有機成長、應對市場波動、支付股東股息和利息以及回購更多股份。

Now turning to our investment portfolio on Page 7. Net investment income for the quarter was $101 million. This was below our quarterly guidance of $105 million due to lower returns from alternative investments.

現在轉到第 7 頁的投資組合。本季淨投資收益為 1.01 億美元。由於另類投資的回報較低，這低於我們 1.05 億美元的季度指引值。

On a rolling four-quarter basis, we continue to believe net investment income will average around $105 million a quarter and will gradually increase throughout the end of the year. Given the tariff-induced market volatility in April, we want to emphasize that we maintain a high-quality, well-diversified investment portfolio.

連續四個季度，我們仍然認為淨投資收入平均每季約為 1.05 億美元，並將在年底逐步增加。鑑於四月關稅引發的市場波動，我們要強調的是，我們維持了高品質、多元化的投資組合。

Currently, approximately 95% of our fixed maturity portfolio is investment grade, of which 71% is rated A or better. This helps provide stability during periods of volatility. It also gives the flexibility to shop for underpriced assets when market conditions allow. With the recent market volatility, we are taking the opportunity to purchase attractive risk assets to create incremental value over time.

目前，我們約 95% 的固定期限投資組合為投資等級，其中 71% 的評級為 A 級或更高。這有助於在波動時期提供穩定性。當市場條件允許時，它還可以靈活地購買低價資產。隨著最近市場的波動，我們正在藉此機會購買有吸引力的風險資產，以隨著時間的推移創造增量價值。

Before turning it over to Matt, I want to reiterate that we are well positioned for long-term profitable growth. Our core businesses are generating strong results. Specialty Auto is expected to continue to grow profitably while maintaining combined ratios below our 96% ceiling. The investments we made to enhance our capabilities over the past five years give us confidence in our businesses to generate shareholder value going forward.

在將權力移交給馬特之前，我想重申，我們已做好實現長期獲利成長的準備。我們的核心業務正在產生強勁的業績。預計專業汽車業務將繼續獲利成長，同時將綜合成本率維持在 96% 的上限以下。過去五年來，我們為提升自身能力所進行的投資，讓我們對未來業務能為股東創造價值充滿信心。

I'll now turn it over to Matt to provide further details.

現在我將把時間交給馬特提供更多細節。

Thank you, Brad, and good afternoon, everyone. Turning to page 8. Our Specialty P&C segment continues to yield healthy margins, producing a total underlying combined ratio of 92.2%. Private passenger auto produced 92.2% and commercial auto produced 92.3%.

謝謝你，布拉德，大家下午好。翻到第 8 頁。我們的專業財產及意外險部門持續維持健康的利潤率，總綜合成本率為 92.2%。私人乘用車產量佔92.2%，商用車產量佔92.3%。

Shifting to production, we are very pleased with our results this quarter. For the segment, written premium grew 24%, while PIF and earned premium each grew around 14%. We remain hyper focused on profitably growing the book our new business loss performance continues to be well within our lifetime pricing targets.

轉向生產後，我們對本季的業績非常滿意。就該領域而言，已承保保費增加了 24%，而 PIF 和已賺保費分別增加了 14% 左右。我們仍然高度關注獲利成長，我們的新業務虧損表現繼續良好地符合我們的終身定價目標。

Dropping into some perspective on our key states, California continues to see very strong growth, supported by a hard market backdrop. We are confident in our pricing adequacy, customer and agent demand for our products remain strong, and our deep understanding of the market supported by our enhanced tools gives us confidence in our ability to profitably grow this business.

從我們關注的重點州來看，在強勁的市場背景支撐下，加州持續保持強勁成長。我們對我們的定價充分性充滿信心，客戶和代理商對我們產品的需求依然強勁，我們對市場的深刻理解以及我們增強的工具的支持使我們對我們能夠盈利地發展這項業務的能力充滿信心。

The Florida market is becoming increasingly competitive, largely driven by the favorable impacts of tariff reform. As we previously stated, we had a deliberate wait-and-see approach and wanted to see the results of these reforms earn in before we adjusted pricing.

佛羅裡達州市場競爭日益激烈，主要得益於關稅改革的有利影響。正如我們之前所說，我們採取了謹慎的觀望態度，希望在調整價格之前看到這些改革的成果。

Additionally, since November, the increased background noise on the potential impacts from tariffs supported this approach. That said, some competitors have taken aggressive pricing action, modestly pressuring near-term production. As the full impact of tort reform and tariffs work into the market, we are well positioned to navigate this environment and expect profitable growth in the state.

此外，自 11 月以來，有關關稅潛在影響的背景噪音不斷增加，也支持了這種做法。儘管如此，一些競爭對手已採取了積極的定價行動，對近期生產造成了一定壓力。隨著侵權法改革和關稅的影響全面進入市場，我們已準備好應對這一環境，並預計該州將實現盈利增長。

In Texas, we were intentionally a little slower to ramp up production until we refreshed our pricing plans. Those changes went live in the middle of the first quarter and we are now seeing positive momentum. Similar to Florida, we expect profitable growth in the state going forward.

在德克薩斯州，我們故意放慢了產量提升的速度，直到我們更新了定價計劃。這些變化在第一季中期開始生效，我們現在看到了積極的勢頭。與佛羅裡達州類似，我們預計該州未來將實現獲利成長。

Our commercial auto business growth remains very strong, complemented by consistently favorable underwriting results. This business grew written premium by over 27% and PIF by approximately 19% year over year. Both new business and PIF are more evenly balanced across our core states. We fully anticipate further profitable expansion of this business supported by its competitive advantages.

我們的商用汽車業務成長依然強勁，並得到持續良好的承保業績的補充。該業務的承保保費年增超過 27%，PIF 年增約 19%。我們的核心州內的新業務和 PIF 更加均衡。我們完全預期，憑藉其競爭優勢，該業務將進一步實現獲利擴張。

As Joe mentioned, our business is well positioned to navigate the upcoming tariff changes. We entered this period with strong underlying results and solid pricing adequacy. We have continued to enhance our pricing and underwriting capabilities that enable both flexibility and speed. We have a demonstrated track record and ability to flex our rate and non-rate actions to address any changes in the environment.

正如喬所提到的，我們的業務已做好充分準備來應對即將到來的關稅變化。我們以強勁的基本業績和穩健的定價充分性進入了這段時期。我們不斷增強定價和承保能力，以實現靈活性和速度。我們擁有良好的業績記錄和能力，能夠靈活調整利率和非利率措施，以應對環境的任何變化。

Additionally, the composition of our private passenger auto book offers advantages over traditional standard auto carriers. Approximately 50% of our policies carry liability-only coverage and exclude tariff exposed first-party collision and comprehensive coverages.

此外，我們的私人乘用汽車帳簿的組成比傳統的標準汽車運輸公司具有優勢。我們約有 50% 的保單僅承保責任，且不包括關稅暴露的第一方碰撞和綜合保險。

90% of our book is written at state minimum limits. This means any tariff exposed third-party property damage liability is capped with a low limit. And over 90% of our in-force book and 95% of new business consists of 6-month policy terms which enables frequent book re-underwriting and accelerated earning of rate.

我們的書中 90% 的內容都是依照國家最低限制寫的。這意味著任何關稅暴露的第三方財產損失責任都有一個較低的限額。我們 90% 以上的有效保單和 95% 以上的新業務均包含 6 個月的保單期限，這使得我們可以頻繁地重新承保並加速獲得費率。

In closing, our specialty auto business is delivering very strong earnings and growth. We expect tariff impacts to be manageable onetime pressure on a subcomponent of our loss cost being realized over several quarters.

最後，我們的專業汽車業務正在實現非常強勁的利潤和成長。我們預計關稅影響將是可控的，對我們損失成本的子組成部分的一次性壓力將在幾個季度內實現。

We are confident in the competitive strength of both our private passenger auto and commercial businesses. We are well positioned to continue to profitably grow our business at a 96% or better combined ratio.

我們對私人乘用車和商用車業務的競爭實力充滿信心。我們已做好準備，繼續以 96% 或更高的綜合比率實現業務盈利增長。

I'll now turn the call back to Joe to cover the life business and closing comments.

現在我將把電話轉回給喬，讓他談談人壽業務並做最後的評論。

Thank you, Matt. Turning to our Life business on page 9. As noted earlier, underlying business continued to generate stable operating results. Mortality and persistency were in line with historical trends. The Life business continues to generate strong return on capital and distributable cash flows.

謝謝你，馬特。請翻到第 9 頁討論我們的人壽業務。如前所述，基礎業務持續產生穩定的經營績效。死亡率和持久性與歷史趨勢一致。人壽業務持續產生強勁的資本回報和可分配現金流。

Turning to page 10. In closing, I'd like to reiterate the highlights for the quarter. First, Kemper delivered very strong operating results. This was led by Specialty P&C's underwriting performance, double-digit year-over-year PIF growth and roughly 24% written premium growth. We delivered an adjusted ROE of 21% and grew adjusted book value per share of 16%.

翻到第 10 頁。最後，我想重申本季的亮點。首先，Kemper 取得了非常強勁的經營業績。這得益於 Specialty P&C 的承保業績、PIF 同比增長兩位數以及約 24% 的承保保費增長。我們實現了 21% 的調整後 ROE，每股調整後帳面價值成長了 16%。

Second, we're entering a potential tariff disrupted macro environment from a position of strength. The competitive advantages of our Specialty business provide tariff resiliency. And finally, we continue to improve our capital and liquidity position. We've reduced the debt to capital ratio toward our long-term range and are producing operating cash flows approaching all-time highs.

其次，我們正以強勢地位進入可能受到關稅幹擾的宏觀環境。我們的專業業務的競爭優勢提供了關稅彈性。最後，我們繼續改善我們的資本和流動性狀況。我們已將債務資本比率降低至長期範圍，並且產生的經營現金流接近歷史最高水準。

I want to take a moment to thank our entire Kemper team for their efforts. These results would not be possible without their commitment and hard work towards achieving our goals. Over the last couple of years, we've invested significant effort into building a stronger, more resilient company preparing us well to navigate the current market environment. We remain confident in our ability to create long-term shareholder value.

我想花點時間感謝我們整個 Kemper 團隊的努力。如果沒有他們為實現我們的目標所做的承諾和努力，這些成果是不可能實現的。在過去的幾年裡，我們投入了大量的精力來打造更強大、更有韌性的公司，為我們應對當前的市場環境做好了充分的準備。我們對自己創造長期股東價值的能力充滿信心。

With that, operator, we can now take questions.

接線員，現在我們可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

（操作員指示）格雷戈里·彼得斯、雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hey. Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to, for the first question, focus on your commentary about market conditions in Florida, Texas and then in California, where you say hard market conditions still persist. Wondering if you could build out on your opening comments on those markets. You're producing substantial PIF growth and just wondering about the durability of that growth as we look for the rest of the year.

嘿。大家下午好。對於第一個問題，我想重點談談您對佛羅裡達州、德克薩斯州以及加州市場狀況的評論，您說這些地區的市場狀況仍然嚴峻。想知道您是否可以對這些市場進行開場評論。您正在實現 PIF 的大幅成長，我們只是想知道在今年剩餘時間內這種成長的持久性。

Sure, Greg. Thanks. I'll take a shot at this, and I'm sure Matt will have some other comments on it. Look, the California growth numbers are strong. You'll find that they likely temper slightly in California as we move into the second and third and fourth quarter.

當然，格雷格。謝謝。我會嘗試一下，我相信馬特也會對此有其他評論。瞧，加州的成長數據很強勁。隨著我們進入第二、第三和第四季度，你會發現加州的氣氛可能會略有緩和。

Part of that is just the timing of when we sort of restarted new business and rebalancing work their way through, but you'll also see an offsetting fairly significant increase in Florida and Texas.

部分原因在於我們重新啟動新業務和重新平衡工作的時機，但您也會看到佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州出現相當顯著的成長。

Those numbers for Florida and Texas, both, on a year-over-year basis, you should move more towards a high single-digit potentially low double-digit but probably high single-digit for the two of them.

佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的數據與去年同期相比，應該會趨向於高個位數，也可能是低兩位數，但也可能是高個位數。

Some of those, the trough -- if you think about a rolling four-quarter basis, the trough for Florida and Texas is a little later, and as Matt pointed out, there were reasons why we were a touch slower in the last quarter and are accelerating.

其中一些，低谷——如果你考慮滾動的四個季度，佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的低谷會稍晚一些，正如馬特指出的那樣，我們在上個季度的速度稍慢一些，現在正在加速，這是有原因的。

So a high degree of confidence that those will move up into that high single-digit PIF growth range in California will sustain. So we'd expect -- I'm not giving you guidance, I'm not giving you a specific number. I'm trying to give you a general durability, but we'd be surprised if the PIF growth wasn't still solidly in the double-digit range.

因此，我們對於加州 PIF 成長率將達到高個位數抱有高度信心。所以我們期望──我不會給你指導，也不會給你一個具體的數字。我試著給你一個整體的耐久性，但如果 PIF 成長率沒有穩固地保持在兩位數範圍內，我們會感到驚訝。

And just to add couple of quick comments to that. California, the market there, we're still seeing limited suppliers in that marketplace, which is providing a favorable backdrop for us. And when we think about the other component of durability in California, it's -- the economic performance of that business, we feel really good about our pricing adequacy in that market with the tools and our intimacy.

我只想補充幾點簡短的評論。在加州的市場，我們仍然看到該市場的供應商有限，這為我們提供了有利的背景。當我們考慮加州耐用性的其他因素時，那就是——該業務的經濟表現，我們對我們的工具和親密度在該市場的定價充分性感到非常滿意。

Florida and Texas, as mentioned in the prepared comments, we have a series of enhancements we put in the first quarter in Texas that are now starting to take hold, and Florida is a pretty competitive environment that we continue to move our product and position for profitable growth, but have an optimistic outlook in both of those markets.

佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州，正如準備好的評論中所提到的，我們在第一季度在德克薩斯州實施了一系列改進，現在這些改進開始生效，佛羅裡達州是一個競爭相當激烈的環境，我們將繼續推動我們的產品和定位以實現盈利增長，但對這兩個市場都持樂觀態度。

Okay. Thank you. I guess my follow-up question would be, I think the Manheim used car index is out, and I think it was up in April compared with margin on a year-over-year basis. So maybe there is some mild inflationary pressures in the system.

好的。謝謝。我想我的後續問題是，我認為曼海姆二手車指數已經出爐，我認為 4 月的利潤率與去年同期相比有所上漲。因此系統中可能存在一些輕微的通膨壓力。

I'm just curious, given that the underlying results are in line with your expectations. How are you viewing your competitive positioning on a price perspective? And do you anticipate any filing for additional rates or tweaking any of your rates in any of your markets?

我只是好奇，因為潛在的結果符合你的期望。從價格角度來看，您如何看待自己的競爭定位？您是否預計會在任何市場申請增加稅率或調整稅率？

Yeah. You got a bunch of things going through there, Greg, and I'm going to try to hit each of them, but actually pull it up. First, we've got a very strong underlying combined ratio of the 92%. Matt pointed out that in Florida, there were positive trends underlying loss trends related to their reform items that we expected we would take into account in some of our pricing to become a little bit more competitive there.

是的。格雷格，你那裡有很多東西要處理，我會嘗試擊中每一個，但實際上要把它拉起來。首先，我們的基本綜合比率高達 92%。馬特指出，在佛羅裡達州，與其改革項目相關的損失趨勢呈現出積極的趨勢，我們預計我們會在一些定價中考慮到這些趨勢，以在那裡變得更具競爭力。

We tempered that a little bit as we were watching and digesting the effects of tariffs. I'd be surprised if the net result of what we did in Florida wasn't becoming somewhat more competitive to reflect the net of those items, and I'd expect we do that.

當我們觀察和消化關稅的影響時，我們對此進行了稍微的緩和。如果我們在佛羅裡達州所做的事情的最終結果沒有變得更具競爭力以反映這些項目的淨值，我會感到驚訝，我希望我們能做到這一點。

Texas, we made our changes that were largely a class plan implementation. So that may have pockets of competitive impact. It wasn't like -- it wasn't the base rate up or down. It was a segmented pricing change. So we'll have that there.

德州，我們所做的改變主要是課程計畫的實施。因此這可能會對競爭產生一定影響。這不像是——這不是基準利率的上升或下降。這是一次分段定價變動。所以我們會在那裡。

And then the balance of the comments really come back to how we've talked about loss trend before. We spent a couple of years where people want to talk about the Manheim used car index and we repeatedly come back and say, that is one minor component of total loss cost trend. We price to total loss cost trend, which is frequency and severity combined on a forward-looking basis.

然後評論的平衡實際上又回到了我們之前談論的損失趨勢。我們花了幾年時間，當人們想談論曼海姆二手車指數時，我們反覆說，這只是總損失成本趨勢的一個小組成部分。我們根據總損失成本趨勢進行定價，即前瞻性地結合頻率和嚴重程度。

We've taken what we see as normal trend. We've taken tariffs into account. We -- to be abundantly clear we do not believe tariffs to be a material earnings impact for us. We think they're going to be within our normal view of what loss cost trend could be and will be handled with normal ordinary course rate changes and rate filings. We had provided some level of guidance early last year that we said our combined ratio would gradually rise to a more traditional long-term number, probably in the 93.5%, 94.5% range.

我們已經採取了我們認為的正常趨勢。我們已經將關稅考慮在內。我們——非常明確地指出，我們不認為關稅會對我們的獲利產生重大影響。我們認為它們將符合我們對損失成本趨勢的正常看法，並將透過正常的費率變化和費率申報來處理。我們在去年年初提供了一定程度的指導，我們表示我們的綜合比率將逐漸上升到更傳統的長期數字，可能在 93.5% 至 94.5% 的範圍內。

We're still at a 92%. That gradual rise, it was later than we thought it might have been. It will still likely come at some point and work its way back to that more long-term trend, and that's still our expectation. We still expect it would be three or four quarters. We were just wrong about when it started. So that's good news.

我們仍然保持 92% 的水平。這種逐漸上升的過程比我們想像的還要晚。它仍有可能在某個時候出現並回到更長期的趨勢，這仍然是我們的預期。我們仍然預計這將是三到四個季度。我們只是錯誤地判斷了它的開始時間。這是個好消息。

We'll expect that general drift and will price accordingly to all loss cost trends wherever they are and whatever the tariff impact is. But again, to be really clear because a lot of folks have been nervous about this, given all of the attributes of our book and our starting points, we just don't see the tariffs to be a material earnings impact.

我們會預期整體的變化，並根據所有損失成本趨勢（無論它們在哪裡以及關稅影響如何）進行定價。但再次強調，需要明確的是，因為很多人對此感到緊張，考慮到我們帳簿的所有屬性和起點，我們只是不認為關稅會對盈利產生重大影響。

And when you take the nature of six-month policies, the ability to reprice the timeliness of that, we're very confident in our ability to navigate the economic environment and have a highly durable growth number.

當你考慮到六個月期保單的性質，以及重新定價其及時性的能力時，我們對我們駕馭經濟環境和實現高度持久的增長數字的能力非常有信心。

Makes sense. Thanks for the answers.

有道理。謝謝您的回答。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

保羅紐瑟姆、派珀桑德勒。

Well, good afternoon, folks. Thanks for the call. I was wondering if you had any thoughts on the potential for sort of secondary impacts from the home insurance crisis in California. I think my sense is a lot of the big boys in that market are kind of on hold waiting for whatever happens with State Farm and regulators to happen.

大家下午好。謝謝您的來電。我想知道您是否對加州房屋保險危機可能造成的次要影響有何看法。我認為，該市場中的許多大公司都在等待 State Farm 和監管機構的後續行動。

But I was wondering if auto could end up sort of being shifted around from a competitive perspective because whatever is happening with the home business, I think it is a package riders anyway. But anyway, I just thought your thoughts on that would be -- I think, interesting.

但我想知道，從競爭的角度來看，汽車行業是否最終會發生某種轉變，因為無論家庭業務發生什麼，我認為它都是一個附加套餐。但無論如何，我只是認為你對此的想法會很有趣。

It's an insightful question, Paul. And our guess is we're already seeing that Matt, I think, described that there was a reduction in supply. There were fewer carriers engaged in the market that might be normal in that. It wouldn't shock me if multiline players were thinking about their total offering as a total.

這是一個很有見地的問題，保羅。我們的猜測是，我們已經看到馬特所描述的供應量減少。參與該市場的運營商數量較少，這可能是正常的。如果多線玩家將他們的總出資額視為總數，我不會感到驚訝。

And where -- if they were troubled about homeowners, they might be tightening their underwriting across the board, which is creating a more attractive environment for auto only writers or players that are specialists there.

如果他們擔心房主的問題，他們可能會全面收緊承保，這將為汽車保險的承保人或專家創造一個更具吸引力的環境。

And I think we're benefiting from that right now. I wouldn't imagine that lasts for a decade, but it should last for a while, and we're capitalizing on that benefit.

我認為我們現在正從中受益。我無法想像這種情況會持續十年，但它應該會持續一段時間，我們正在利用這種好處。

Interesting. My second question on investment income, alternatives have moved out a little bit. It's not a huge number for you guys, but that has moved around a little bit. Given what's going on with the financial market, should we be a little bit more conservative or potentially more conservative in the next quarter, given the volatility of the market recently? I think some of that stuff is reported on a lag, if I'm not incorrect.

有趣的。我的第二個問題是關於投資收益，替代品已經稍微轉移了一點。對你們來說這不是一個巨大的數字，但它已經發生了一些變化。考慮到金融市場的現狀，考慮到最近市場的波動，下個季度我們是否應該更加保守一些，或者可能更加保守？如果我沒記錯的話，我認為其中一些內容的報告是有滯後的。

No, you're correct. Paul, this is Brad. It is reported on a lag. When you mean conservative, are you talking about your estimates, or are you talking about --

不，你是對的。保羅，這是布萊德。據報道有滯後現象。當你說保守的時候，你指的是你的估計，還是你在說--

Yeah, that's just lower expectation for return in the next quarter or so because of the financial markets being potentially a negative number. I think that's happened with our alternative investments when the market hasn't been favorable.

是的，由於金融市場可能出現負數，因此對下一季左右的回報預期較低。我認為，當市場表現不佳時，我們的另類投資就會發生這種情況。

The -- how I would think about it is we're still, as I indicated a couple of quarters ago, looking at $105 million per quarter run rate. Obviously, we missed by $3 million or $4 million based upon the alternative investment performance, which for many, you're seeing lower returns across the board in that asset class.

我的想法是，正如我幾個季度前指出的那樣，我們仍然希望實現每季 1.05 億美元的運行率。顯然，根據另類投資表現，我們損失了 300 萬或 400 萬美元，對於許多人來說，您會看到該資產類別的回報率全面下降。

Overall, though, as we generate more cash flow, we're growing and have more invested assets, you'll see it come up. And we anticipate reallocating some of our high-quality investment portfolio to a higher-yielding assets, I think about high-quality, high-yield private credit CLOs. So I'd expect kind of a rolling couple of quarter average of $105 million, and then for that to increase throughout the back half of the year.

總體而言，隨著我們產生更多的現金流，我們正在成長並擁有更多的投資資產，你會看到它出現。我們預計將部分高品質投資組合重新分配給收益更高的資產，我想到的是高品質、高收益的私人信貸 CLO。因此，我預計幾季的平均值將達到 1.05 億美元，然後在今年下半年增加。

Great. Appreciate the help, guys. Thanks very much.

偉大的。謝謝大家的幫忙。非常感謝。

Brian Meredith, UBS Securities.

瑞銀證券的 Brian Meredith。

Hey, thanks. Joe, I'm just curious, what was the benefit in the quarter? Maybe talk about a little bit going forward of the increase in the California minimum limits on written premium growth.

嘿，謝謝。喬，我只是好奇，本季的收益是多少？也許可以稍微談論一下加州對承保保費增長最低限額的提高。

Yeah, written premium, the California minimum what I'm trying to remember, Matt, was overall on the book was 6 or 7 points, high single digits. So the 24% written premium growth definitely is benefiting from that. And you'll see that modestly come down. I wouldn't necessarily run rate 24% written premium growth. You probably want to think about that in the high teens on a go-forward basis.

是的，書面保費，我試圖記住的加州最低標準，馬特，這本書的總體分數是 6 或 7 分，高個位數。因此，24%的承保保費成長肯定受益於此。您將會看到這一數字緩慢下降。我不一定會達到 24% 的保費成長率。您可能希望在未來的十多年內考慮這個問題。

Would you still see it in the second quarter though since it's six-month policies?

但由於這是六個月的政策，您還會在第二季看到它嗎？

Yeah, you'd see part of it there, yeah.

是的，你會在那裡看到其中的一部分，是的。

Got you. Okay, that's helpful. And then second question, more big picture here. You've got ample liquidity at your holding company, debt-to-cap ratios come down.

明白了。好的，這很有幫助。然後是第二個問題，這裡有更多宏觀圖景。您的控股公司擁有充足的流動性，負債與資本比率下降。

You're in great financial position right now. What are your thoughts now with respect to M&A? And is there any kind of opportunities out there given somewhat dissettled environment of sort to a lot of small and mid-sized companies that you compete with?

您現在的財務狀況非常好。您現在對併購有何看法？鑑於與您競爭的許多中小型公司所處的競爭環境有些不穩定，是否有任何機會？

Yeah. Great question. First, I'll start with the statement that we never comment on M&A because if we're not doing anything and we comment on it and then we are doing something and say no comment, it says something. So we never particularly, so nothing here because you'd be taking as a specific commentary.

是的。好問題。首先，我要聲明，我們從不對併購發表評論，因為如果我們什麼都沒做，卻對其發表評論，然後我們做了某事卻說不評論，這說明了一些問題。所以我們從來沒有特別地，所以這裡沒有什麼，因為你會把它當作一個具體的評論。

I'll point you back to our capital priorities. We described those as first and foremost, looking to organically profitably grow our business, and our business is growing fairly significantly now and is profitable. So the first priority there, capital deployment is that.

我將向大家回顧一下我們的資本優先事項。我們首先將這些描述為尋求有機盈利地發展我們的業務，現在我們的業務正在顯著增長並且盈利。因此，首要任務是資本部署。

The second is if there is an inorganic opportunity to expand the strength of our franchise, we will explore and look for that if it makes us better. Bigger isn't necessarily better. Better is better. And if there's an opportunity, we will explore that.

第二，如果有一個無機機會來擴大我們的特許經營實力，我們就會探索並尋找它，如果它能讓我們變得更好。更大不一定更好。更好就是更好。如果有機會，我們就會去探索。

And then third, if we can do either one of those and grow the franchise, we'll look to return capital to shareholders in an efficient and effective way possible. So that's the reminder of the priorities. I would say we're a strong organization, and we do believe we're back on the balls of our feet and are playing offense. And like an environment that might have other folks a little disrupted when we're approaching it from a position of strength.

第三，如果我們能夠做到其中任何一件事並擴大特許經營權，我們將尋求以盡可能高效和有效的方式向股東返還資本。這就是對優先事項的提醒。我想說我們是一個強大的組織，我們確實相信我們已經重新站穩腳跟並開始進攻。當我們從強勢地位接近某個環境時，可能會對其他人造成一些幹擾。

Helpful. Thank you.

很有幫助。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Kligerman, TD Securities.

（操作員指示）安德魯·克里格曼 (Andrew Kligerman)，道明證券。

Hey. Good afternoon. Really good color on California. Was interested your competitor, GEICO, their expense ratio was pretty much the same low level that it was a year ago in the first quarter. And not necessarily specific to GEICO, but outside of California, to what degree would you say the competition is back in the game and fully competing as if it were a 2018 or 2019?

嘿。午安.加州的色彩確實很好。對您的競爭對手 GEICO 感興趣，他們的費用率與去年第一季相比幾乎處於相同的低水平。不一定是針對 GEICO，而是在加州以外，您認為競爭對手在多大程度上重返遊戲並像 2018 年或 2019 年那樣全面競爭？

We're seeing generally nonstandard companies enter back into a market at a pretty good clip, ex California. We see in the non-California marketplaces, we'll see on a normal quote anywhere upwards of 10 to 15 competitors returning prices. That's a near-normal level for us. So ex California, fairly competitive, fairly back to business as usual there. California, as I mentioned, is a bit of a different story where we're seeing limited supply.

我們看到，除加州外，非標準公司普遍以相當快的速度重返市場。我們發現，在非加州市場，正常報價中會有 10 到 15 個競爭對手退回價格。對我們來說，這接近正常水平。因此，除加州外，那裡的競爭相當激烈，業務基本上恢復正常。正如我所提到的，加州的情況略有不同，我們看到供應有限。

And keep in mind, nonstandard market is a bit different than standard market in terms of how the markets soften and so forth from a pricing perspective. But generally, ex California, we are seeing the market back to a normal level of competitiveness.

請記住，從定價角度來看，非標準市場在市場軟化等方面與標準市場略有不同。但總體而言，除加州外，我們看到市場恢復到了正常的競爭水平。

Got it. And then just a couple of quick one-offs, color on frequency and severity to what degree are you seeing frequency this year? Is it still a little low versus prior year? And how about severity?

知道了。然後只是幾個快速的一次性事件，頻率和嚴重程度的顏色，今年您看到的頻率有多大？與去年相比是否仍然有點低？嚴重程度又如何？

Hey, Andrew, this is Brad. Overall, the book from a frequency and severity standpoint is performing fairly well. You see a little bit better frequency this quarter than last and on a year-over-year basis. And then severity is trending with where we're expecting it to be. I think previously, I content mid- to high single digits on a year-over-year basis.

嘿，安德魯，我是布拉德。整體而言，從頻率和嚴重性的角度來看，這本書的表現相當不錯。與上一季和去年同期相比，本季的頻率略有提高。然後嚴重程度就會按照我們預期的趨勢發展。我認為之前，我預期年同比增速會達到中高個位數。

You get different coverages up higher than others, but in total, we're priced for mid- to high single digits, and that's kind of what we're seeing at this point.

您可以獲得比其他人更高的不同覆蓋範圍，但總的來說，我們的定價為中高個位數，這就是我們目前所看到的情況。

Now I'd also comment there that, that includes the FR limit change in California and everything is basically moving as expected.

現在我還要評論一下，這包括加州的 FR 限制變化，一切基本上都在按預期進行。

And then just two really quick ones, brad, how much rate is still there to earn in this year? And then some, with regard to the other states outside of the big three, you're up a really robust 13% on PIF. Any standout states that you're getting excited about?

然後只需快速問兩個問題，布拉德，今年還有多少利率可以賺取？然後，對於三大州以外的其他州，PIF 的漲幅確實達到了 13%。有哪些突出的州令您感到興奮？

Andrew, from a rate perspective, it's not something I would focus on. I would focus on more just the PIF growth. We'll take rate up and down as needed and as indications dictate. Our goal is to remain competitive in all the markets that we operate in. So we're not in that environment where we're trying to get back to earn rate in excess of loss cost.

安德魯，從利率角度來看，這不是我關注的重點。我會更關注 PIF 的成長。我們將根據需要和跡象來提高或降低利率。我們的目標是在我們經營的所有市場中保持競爭力。因此，我們並不是處於試圖使收益率超過損失成本的環境。

We're already there. So we've kind of moved beyond displaying that and discussing it.

我們已經到了。因此，我們不再僅限於展示和討論它。

With respect to other markets, we're focused on obviously, maintaining our competitive position in California growing in Florida and Texas and then other expansion states like Illinois, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon are other areas that we're focused on growing. The bulk of our business is in those three main states, California and Florida, Texas. And over time, we'll grow those non-large states.

對於其他市場，我們顯然專注於保持我們在加州的競爭地位，並在佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州發展，然後是其他擴張州，例如伊利諾伊州、亞利桑那州、科羅拉多州、俄勒岡州，這些都是我們專注於發展的其他地區。我們的主要業務集中在三個主要州：加利福尼亞州、佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州。隨著時間的推移，我們將發展這些非大州。

Got it. Thanks a lot.

知道了。多謝。

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Joe Lacher for closing comments. Sir, please go ahead.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉給喬·拉赫爾先生，請他發表最後評論。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and thanks, everybody, for your time and attention today. Again, we're pleased with the results that we've got and looking forward to continuing to deliver strong results going forward and capitalize on what we think is a very opportunistic market and opportunity throughout the year. Thanks.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天的時間和關注。再次，我們對所取得的成果感到滿意，並期待在未來繼續取得強勁的業績，並充分利用我們認為全年非常有利的市場和機會。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you very much for your participation. You may not disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的參與。您不能斷開連線。