KKR & Co Inc (KKR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to KKR's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now hand the call over to Craig Larson, Partner and Head of Investor Relations for KKR. Craig, please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 KKR 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我將電話交給 KKR 合夥人兼投資者關係主管 Craig Larson。克雷格，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2025 earnings call. This morning, as usual, I'm joined by Rob Lewin, our Chief Financial Officer; and Scott Nuttall, our Co-Chief Executive Officer. We would like to remind everyone that we'll refer to non-GAAP measures on the call, which are reconciled to GAAP figures in our press release, which is available on the Investor Center section at kkr.com.

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安。歡迎參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天早上，像往常一樣，我們與我們的財務長 Rob Lewin 一起出席了會議；以及我們的聯合執行長 Scott Nuttall。我們想提醒大家，我們將在電話會議上參考非 GAAP 指標，這些指標已與我們新聞稿中的 GAAP 數據相協調，新聞稿可在 kkr.com 的投資者中心部分找到。

And as a reminder, we report our segment numbers on an adjusted share basis. This call will contain forward-looking statements, which do not guarantee future events or performance. Please refer to our earnings release and our SEC filings for cautionary factors about these statements.

提醒一下，我們根據調整後的份額報告我們的分部資料。本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，不保證未來事件或表現。請參閱我們的收益報告和美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件，以了解有關這些聲明的警告因素。

I'm going to begin this morning by reviewing our results for the quarter before Rob walks through the current environment, its impact on our key business drivers as well as our strategic positioning longer term. Scott will then finish with some closing thoughts.

今天上午，我將首先回顧本季的業績，然後 Rob 將介紹當前的環境、它對我們的關鍵業務驅動力以及我們長期策略定位的影響。斯科特將最後發表一些總結性言論。

So beginning with our headline financial results for the quarter. Fee-related earnings per share came in at $0.92, up 22% year over year. Total operating earnings of $1.24 per share are up 16% year over year, and adjusted net income of $1.15 per share is up 19% compared to a year ago.

首先介紹本季的主要財務表現。每股費用相關收益為 0.92 美元，年增 22%。每股 1.24 美元的總營業收益比去年同期成長 16%，每股 1.15 美元的調整後淨收益比去年同期成長 19%。

All of these figures are among the highest we reported as a public company and are reflective of a diversified and global business model built over the last decade-plus. Going into our quarterly results in a little more detail.

所有這些數字都是我們作為上市公司報告的最高數字，反映了過去十多年來建立的多元化和全球化商業模式。更詳細地介紹我們的季度業績。

Management fees in Q1 were $917 million, up 13% year over year driven by fundraising and deployment activities. If anything, management fee growth in the quarter feels understated relative to the breadth of the $31 billion of new capital that we raised in Q1.

第一季的管理費為 9.17 億美元，受籌資和部署活動的推動，年增 13%。如果有什麼不同的話，相對於我們在第一季籌集的 310 億美元新資本而言，本季的管理費成長顯得有些低估了。

The largest component of this $31 billion was capital raised for North America XIV, the latest vintage of our flagship North America Private Equity strategy, which had not turned on as of March 31, and therefore, did not contribute to management fees in the quarter. Rob is going to give a little bit of a more fulsome update on Americas XIV in a few minutes. Total transaction and monitoring fees were $262 million in the quarter.

這 310 億美元中最大的一部分是為北美 XIV 籌集的資金，這是我們旗艦北美私募股權策略的最新版本，截至 3 月 31 日尚未啟動，因此未對本季度的管理費做出貢獻。幾分鐘後，羅布將對美洲 XIV 進行更詳細的更新。本季交易和監控費用總額為 2.62 億美元。

Capital Markets transaction fees were $229 million driven primarily by activity in new and existing portfolio companies within both private equity and infrastructure. Fee-related performance revenues were $21 million in the quarter. So altogether, fee-related revenues came in at $1.2 billion. That's up 22% year over year.

資本市場交易費用為 2.29 億美元，主要由私募股權和基礎設施領域新舊投資組合公司的活動推動。本季費用相關績效收入為 2,100 萬美元。因此，總費用相關收入達 12 億美元。這比去年同期增長了 22%。

Turning to expenses. Fee-related compensation was right at the midpoint of our guided range at 17.5% of fee-related revenues. Other operating expenses were $168 million for the quarter. So in total, fee-related earnings were $823 million or the $0.92 per share that I mentioned a moment ago with an FRE margin of 69%.

談到費用。與費用相關的薪酬正好處於我們指導範圍的中間點，佔費用相關收入的 17.5%。本季其他營運支出為 1.68 億美元。因此，總體而言，費用相關收益為 8.23 億美元，也就是我剛才提到的每股 0.92 美元，FRE 利潤率為 69%。

Insurance segment operating earnings were $259 million and Strategic Holdings operating earnings were $31 million, both of which were in line modestly ahead of our recent guidance. In terms of our Strategic Holdings segment, we closed on our purchase of additional stakes in three existing core private equity businesses as we introduced on our call last quarter.

保險部門營業利潤為 2.59 億美元，戰略控股營業利潤為 3,100 萬美元，均略高於我們最近的預期。就我們的策略控股部門而言，正如我們在上個季度的電話會議上介紹的那樣，我們完成了對三家現有核心私募股權業務的額外股份的收購。

We continue to feel that our Strategic Holdings business is a real differentiator for us, and these transactions are a further accelerant for this segment. Today, our share of annual revenue and EBITDA across the 18-company portfolio is approximately [$3.8] billion and $920 million, respectively. Again, that's our share.

我們仍然認為，我們的策略控股業務對我們來說是一個真正的差異化因素，而這些交易將進一步促進這一領域的發展。如今，我們在 18 家公司投資組合中的年收入和 EBITDA 份額分別約為 38 億美元和 9.2 億美元。再說一遍，這是我們的份額。

And since quarter end, we've announced the acquisition of a new core private equity investment, Karo Healthcare, which will bring our Strategic Holdings portfolio to 19 companies. So altogether, total operating earnings were $1.24 per share.

自本季末以來，我們宣布收購新的核心私募股權投資 Karo Healthcare，這將使我們的策略控股組合達到 19 家公司。因此，總計每股營業收益為 1.24 美元。

As a reminder, total operating earnings is comprised of our fee-related earnings, together with our insurance and Strategic Holdings operating earnings, which represent the more recurring components of our earnings streams. Over the last 12 months, operating earnings comprised nearly 80% of total segment earnings.

提醒一下，總營業收入包括我們的費用相關收入以及我們的保險和策略控股營業收入，這些收入代表了我們收入流中更經常性的部分。過去 12 個月，營業利潤佔該部門總利潤的近 80%。

So said differently, nearly 80% of our pretax earnings over the last 12 months were driven by a more recurring earnings streams, highlighting the profitability of our business, especially during periods of volatility. Turning now to investing earnings within our asset management segment. Realized performance income was $348 million and realized investment income was $218 million for total monetization activity of $566 million. That's up almost 40% year over year.

換句話說，過去 12 個月我們稅前收益的近 80% 是由更經常性的收益流所推動的，這凸顯了我們業務的獲利能力，尤其是在波動時期。現在轉向我們資產管理部門內的投資收益。實現的業績收入為 3.48 億美元，實現的投資收入為 2.18 億美元，總貨幣化活動為 5.66 億美元。與去年同期相比，成長了近 40%。

This quarter, activity was largely driven by the annual crystallization of carry from core PE as well as other monetization events across traditional PE as well as growth equity.

本季度的活動主要受到核心 PE 的年度結晶以及傳統 PE 和成長型股權的其他貨幣化事件的推動。

Turning to investment performance and looking at Page 10 of our earnings release. The private equity portfolio was up 4% in the quarter and up 11% over the last 12 months. This was a quarter where investment performance was undoubtedly helped by the geographic diversification of our firm as European and Asian equity indices were both up in the quarter.

轉向投資績效並查看我們的收益報告第 10 頁。私募股權投資組合本季上漲 4%，過去 12 個月上漲 11%。本季度，歐洲和亞洲股票指數均上漲，這無疑得益於我們公司的地域多元化，從而提高了投資績效。

In real assets, the opportunistic real estate portfolio was up 2% in the quarter and up 5% over the LTM. Infrastructure was up 4% in the quarter and appreciated 13% over the LTM. And in credit, the leverage credit composite was flat in the quarter and up 7% over the last 12 months.

在實體資產方面，機會型房地產投資組合本季上漲 2%，較 LTM 上漲 5%。本季基礎設施上漲 4%，較 LTM 上漲 13%。在信貸方面，本季信貸槓桿率保持平穩，但過去 12 個月上漲了 7%。

And the alternative credit composite was up 3% in the quarter and up 11% over the last 12 months. And finally, consistent with historical practice, we increased our dividend to $0.74 per share on an annualized basis or $0.185 per share quarter beginning with this quarter.

本季替代信貸綜合指數上漲 3%，過去 12 個月上漲 11%。最後，按照歷史慣例，從本季開始，我們將股息提高至每股 0.74 美元（年度化）或每股 0.185 美元（季度化）。

This is now the sixth consecutive year we've increased our dividend since we changed our corporate structure, increasing our annualized dividend from $0.50 per share to $0.74 over this period of time. And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Rob.

這是我們自改變公司結構以來連續第六年增加股息，在此期間，我們的年度股息從每股 0.50 美元增加到 0.74 美元。說完這些，我很高興將電話轉給羅布。

Thanks a lot, Craig, and thanks, everyone, for joining our call this morning. We've all experienced some real volatility, particularly since early April. It is in this type of environment that our business model and collaborative culture uniquely positions us.

非常感謝，克雷格，也感謝大家今天早上參加我們的電話會議。我們都經歷了一些真正的波動，特別是自四月初以來。正是在這種環境中，我們的商業模式和協作文化使我們具有獨特的地位。

And we are using that to lean in and source attractive investment opportunities around the globe for our clients. As we navigate this volatility, there are a number of themes and questions that we have consistently been hearing from our shareholders and clients.

我們正在利用這一點，為我們的客戶在全球範圍內尋找有吸引力的投資機會。在我們應對這種波動的過程中，我們不斷聽到股東和客戶提出一些主題和問題。

So I thought I would spend my time this morning walking through a number of common areas of focus. The first is the impact of tariffs on our existing portfolio. As a starting point, it is important to remember that tariffs and supply chain diversification and resilience have been front-of-mind topics for our set, public affairs, and macro teams dating back to the global pandemic. As a result, for five-plus years now, this has been a standard topic of conversation.

因此，我想今天上午花些時間來討論一些常見的關注領域。首先是關稅對我們現有投資組合的影響。首先，重要的是要記住，自全球大流行以來，關稅和供應鏈多樣化和彈性一直是我們的公共事務和宏觀團隊關注的首要話題。因此，五年多來，這一直是個標準的議題。

Taking a look at our global equity portfolio today, this includes traditional core and growth. Based on our initial findings, we estimate that 90% of our AUM has limited to no first order impact from the announced tariffs. Importantly, this figure does not include identified mitigating measures that we are actively implementing.

看看我們今天的全球股票投資組合，其中包括傳統核心和成長。根據我們的初步調查結果，我們估計，90% 的 AUM 受到宣布的關稅的直接影響有限或沒有直接影響。重要的是，這個數字不包括我們正在積極實施的已確定的緩解措施。

And specifically, our core private equity portfolio and our Strategic Holdings segment are not expected to have any material impact from tariffs. Across our infrastructure platform, the vast majority of our companies have either contractual protections that insulate KKR returns or minimal estimated exposure.

具體來說，我們的核心私募股權投資組合和策略控股部門預計不會受到關稅的任何重大影響。在我們的基礎設施平台上，絕大多數公司要麼擁有保護 KKR 回報的合約保護，要麼擁有最低限度的估計風險敞口。

Looking at our infrastructure deployment over the last five years, approximately 70% has been in Europe and Asia. And as we look at our credit portfolio, there will be pockets of exposure, but we believe the opportunities, and we really do think this is a credit pickers market, will outweigh the downside.

回顧過去五年我們的基礎設施部署，大約70%位於歐洲和亞洲。當我們審視我們的信貸組合時，會發現存在一些風險敞口，但我們相信，機會（我們確實認為這是一個信貸選擇者市場）將超過不利因素。

So while we expect there will be individual instances of direct tariff in parts of the portfolio, based on how we understand tariffs today, we feel well-equipped to manage these challenges and on the whole, feel very good with how our portfolio is positioned.

因此，雖然我們預期部分投資組合中會出現個別直接關稅的情況，但根據我們目前對關稅的理解，我們認為自己有能力應對這些挑戰，而且總體而言，我們對我們的投資組合的定位感到非常滿意。

The second theme that I wanted to cover this morning is the effect on both deployment and the monetization environment. We find ourselves in the fortunate position of being ready as a firm to play offense on behalf of our clients.

今天早上我想討論的第二個主題是對部署和貨幣化環境的影響。我們發現自己處於一個幸運的位置，作為一家公司，我們隨時準備好代表我們的客戶發動攻擊。

Volatility brings opportunity, and we benefit from the global and connected nature of the firm. We've closed or committed to over $30 billion worth of new investments since the start of the year. Within private markets, these investments are diversified across geographies with more than half coming outside the US.

波動帶來機遇，而我們則受益於公司的全球化和互聯性。自今年年初以來，我們已經完成或承諾了價值超過 300 億美元的新投資。在私人市場中，這些投資分散在各個地區，其中超過一半來自美國以外。

Notably, multiple of these investments are in Japan, where we continue to be at the forefront of activity, including the purchases of FUJI SOFT and Topcon in our private equity strategy. Looking only at investments that we announced over the last month, so when the tariff-related volatility began, we committed over $10 billion of equity.

值得注意的是，這些投資中有多項是在日本進行的，我們在日本繼續處於活動的最前沿，包括在我們的私募股權策略中收購 FUJI SOFT 和 Topcon。僅看我們上個月宣布的投資，當關稅相關的波動開始時，我們承諾投入超過 100 億美元的股權。

This includes $7 billion in private markets across global opportunities in traditional PE, core PE, infrastructure and tech growth, to name a few; and another $3 billion in private credit across direct lending, high-grade ABF and junior debt.

其中包括在傳統 PE、核心 PE、基礎設施和技術成長等全球私人市場中投資 70 億美元；另外還有 30 億美元的私人信貸，包括直接貸款、高等級 ABF 和次級債務。

Moving next to monetizations. We think we remain really well-positioned here. Our discipline around investment pacing and linear deployment has definitely contributed to the overall strength and maturity of our portfolio. At quarter-end, our gross unrealized performance income stands at $8.7 billion.

接下來是貨幣化。我們認為我們在這裡仍然處於非常有利的地位。我們對投資節奏和線性部署的紀律無疑促進了我們投資組合的整體實力和成熟度。截至季末，我們的未實現業績總收入為 87 億美元。

It's a high point for us and up over 25% year on year. I think this number in particular stands out given our healthy level of monetizations over the past 12 months. As a result of our mature and global portfolio and strong investment performance, we are better positioned than some might expect in terms of realization activity, even in the face of the market volatility.

這對我們來說是一個高點，比去年同期成長超過 25%。我認為，考慮到我們過去 12 個月健康的貨幣化水平，這個數字尤其引人注目。由於我們擁有成熟的全球投資組合和強勁的投資業績，即使面對市場波動，我們在實現活動方面也比一些人預期的更有利。

To give you a sense, looking at our pending monetizations, so this is based on transactions that are signed but not yet closed, we have direct line of sight to north of $800 million of monetization-related revenue, most of which will be performance income. This includes exits of Seiyu in Japan, Kito Crosby in the US, and four infrastructure investments, to name a few of the key drivers.

為了讓您有個概念，看看我們即將實現的貨幣化，這是基於已簽署但尚未完成的交易，我們直接看到了 8 億美元以上的貨幣化相關收入，其中大部分將是績效收入。其中包括日本西友銀行、美國 Kito Crosby 的退出以及四項基礎設施投資，只是其中幾個關鍵驅動因素。

Of that $800 million-plus, we expect at least $250 million to be generated in Q2. It's a very healthy figure for us as we stand here in just early May. The third theme that I wanted to hit on is the impact on our capital-raising efforts. We are actively engaged with our clients.

在這 8 億多美元中，我們預計第二季將產生至少 2.5 億美元。對我們來說，這是一個非常健康的數字，因為我們現在才五月初。我想談的第三個主題是對我們的融資努力的影響。我們積極與客戶合作。

Part of this is making sure they know what is happening with their portfolios. But a lot of it is discussing how to invest into these markets and ways that we can work together. We've heard a range of response, and they are evolving with the market. While it may be early as we see how this all plays out, today, there are no changes to our targets, and we have continued conviction in our fundraising outlook. Total new capital raised in the quarter was $31 billion.

其中一部分是確保他們了解其投資組合的進展。但其中許多是在討論如何投資這些市場以及我們可以合作的方式。我們聽到了各種各樣的回應，它們正在隨著市場而發展。雖然現在觀察這一切如何發展還為時過早，但今天我們的目標沒有變化，我們對我們的籌款前景仍然充滿信心。本季籌集的新資本總額為 310 億美元。

And it's worth spending a minute on our North America Private Equity strategy. In April, we completed the initial close period to North America XIV at $14 billion. It's a great first step for us and reflects, in our view, the strong investment returns we've delivered on behalf of our clients alongside a differentiated return of capital profile.

值得花一點時間來了解我們的北美私募股權策略。今年 4 月，我們完成了北美 XIV 計畫 140 億美元的初步收尾階段。這對我們來說是偉大的第一步，在我們看來，這反映了我們為客戶帶來的強勁投資回報以及差異化的資本回報狀況。

And remember, our approach here stands in contrast relative to many in our industry as we raise traditional PE funds focused across North America, Europe, and Asia compared to the global funds you often see from our competitors. This approach, we think, has allowed us to raise more capital.

請記住，我們的做法與業內許多公司的做法截然不同，因為我們籌集的是專注於北美、歐洲和亞洲的傳統 PE 基金，而您經常會從我們的競爭對手那裡看到全球基金。我們認為，這種方法使我們能夠籌集更多資金。

As of 3/31, we had over $40 billion of committed capital across our active traditional private equity flagship funds and has also allowed for a more diversified carried interest profile at the same time. And this doesn't include committed capital across core private equity, mid-market, and our growth strategies.

截至 3 月 31 日，我們在活躍的傳統私募股權旗艦基金中已擁有超過 400 億美元的承諾資本，同時也實現了更多樣化的附帶權益配置。這還不包括核心私募股權、中端市場和我們的成長策略的承諾資本。

Looking at another important piece of capital raising, private wealth. Our K-Series suite of vehicles continue to maintain traction. Across the four investing verticals, AUM was at $22 billion, including activity that closed in April 1, 2025. This compares to $9 billion a year ago.

看看另一個重要的融資部分，即私人財富。我們的 K 系列車輛繼續保持吸引力。在四個投資垂直領域，資產管理規模達到 220 億美元，其中包括 2025 年 4 月 1 日結束的活動。相比之下，一年前這一數字為 90 億美元。

Our North Star for the K-Series suite continues to be focused on building vehicles that we can be proud of 10-plus years from now. As a result, recognizing that we don't read too much into the month-to-month sales, we continue to be encouraged by our performance, deployment and the capital-raising activity.

我們對 K 系列套件的北極星繼續專注於製造 10 年後我們仍引以為傲的車輛。因此，我們認識到我們不會過度關注月度銷售額，我們繼續對我們的業績、部署和融資活動感到鼓舞。

And earlier this week, the two public private credit solutions created an exclusive partnership with the Capital Group have launched. We are similarly focused on building these products for long-term success.

本週早些時候，這兩家公私信貸解決方案公司與資本集團建立了獨家合作關係。我們同樣專注於打造這些產品的長期成功。

And as we look ahead to the second half of the year, we would expect to give you an update on the private equity and real asset product launches. In addition, work is underway to extend access for individuals interested in private markets through model portfolios and target date funds.

展望下半年，我們希望向您提供有關私募股權和實體資產產品發布的最新情況。此外，我們正在努力透過模型投資組合和目標日期基金擴大對私人市場感興趣的個人的准入。

Turning next to insurance. We are now a year-plus into owning 100% of Global Atlantic, and we are progressing well on our path to modestly evolving how we source both liabilities and assets, including raising more third-party capital, elongating our liability profile and sourcing additional alternatives. This addition of longer-dated alternatives to the portfolio where we think that we have a differentiated and at overall returns while at the same time naturally reducing leverage over time.

接下來談談保險。現在，我們已經擁有 Global Atlantic 100% 的股份一年多了，我們在適度改進負債和資產來源方式的道路上進展順利，包括籌集更多第三方資本、延長我們的負債狀況和尋找其他替代方案。我們認為，在投資組合中添加較長期的替代品可以獲得差異化的整體回報，同時隨著時間的推移自然會降低槓桿率。

Financial performance here begins with insurance segment operating earnings. In Q1, as you would have heard from Craig, we reported $259 million, which was in line with our expectations. And consistent with our comments last quarter, I would expect insurance operating earnings to stay in that $250 million-plus or minus level during the next few quarters.

這裡的財務表現始於保險部門的營業利潤。在第一季度，正如您從 Craig 那裡聽到的，我們報告的營收為 2.59 億美元，這符合我們的預期。與我們上個季度的評論一致，我預計未來幾季保險營業利潤將保持在 2.5 億美元上下的水平。

This line item alone does not capture though how our model works and the overall impact of our insurance-related economics. A lot of it appropriately shows up in our asset management segment. Firstly, management fees from our Ivy sidecar vehicles as well as Strategic Holdings allows us to grow GA in a very capital-efficient way.

但僅憑這一項並不能反映我們的模型如何運作以及與保險相關的經濟的整體影響。其中許多都恰如其分地體現在我們的資產管理部門。首先，來自常春藤邊車工具以及策略控股的管理費使我們能夠以非常資本高效的方式發展 GA。

And there is more to come here. As an example, Japan Post Insurance announced in Q1 their intention to expand our existing strategic partnership and make a new $1 billion to $2 billion investment here. Number two, Capital Markets fees, where we've just begun to scratch the surface. We see the potential to generate several hundred million of additional annual revenues over time. In 2024, that number was closer to $50 million.

這裡還有更多內容。例如，日本郵政保險在第一季宣布，他們打算擴大我們現有的策略夥伴關係，並在此進行 10 億至 20 億美元的新投資。第二，資本市場費用，我們才剛開始觸及皮毛。我們看到了隨著時間的推移每年產生數億美元額外收入的潛力。到 2024 年，這個數字將接近 5,000 萬美元。

And finally, the management fees charged for our investment management agreement with Global Atlantic. Critically, even while we are in the process of shifting our strategy to emphasize longer-duration and more private market assets, our all-in pretax ROE of our insurance business is approaching 20% with a clear path to 20%-plus returns as we get all the elements of the business working well together.

最後，我們與 Global Atlantic 簽訂的投資管理協議收取的管理費。至關重要的是，儘管我們正在轉變策略，強調長期和更多的私人市場資產，但我們保險業務的稅前總淨資產收益率已接近 20%，並且隨著我們所有業務要素的良好協同，我們有望實現 20% 以上的回報。

The last theme that I want to go through before handing it off to Scott is around the durability of our model, which provides us with a significant amount of both stability and visibility. Over 90% of our capital is perpetual or committed for an average of eight years or more. Today, we have $116 billion of committed but uncalled capital.

在將其交給斯科特之前，我想討論的最後一個主題是我們的模型的耐用性，它為我們提供了相當高的穩定性和可見性。我們的資本中有 90% 以上是永久性的，或承諾期限平均為八年或更長。今天，我們有 1160 億美元已承諾但尚未到達的資本。

And if you look at our management fees, they are largely calculated on committed or invested capital, and therefore, not influenced by marks and corresponding fees. And finally, we have a record amount of capital on which we're not yet earning fees with $64 billion committed with a weighted average management fee rate of about 100 basis points that turns on when the capital is either invested or enters its investment period.

如果你看一下我們的管理費，它們主要是根據承諾或投資資本計算的，因此不受標記和相應費用的影響。最後，我們擁有創紀錄的尚未賺取費用的資本，承諾投入 640 億美元，加權平均管理費率約為 100 個基點，當資本投入或進入投資期時，就會開始收取費用。

Just to put that $64 billion figure into perspective, it is up almost 50% compared to one year ago. So we benefit from real stability of management fees and increased visibility on how they will grow. And finally, our business is global and diversified.

僅從 640 億美元這個數字來看，與一年前相比，它增長了近 50%。因此，我們受惠於管理費的真正穩定性以及管理費成長前景的增強。最後，我們的業務是全球性的和多樣化的。

Almost half of our investment professionals sit outside of the US. And looking specifically at our management fees, they are well-diversified across asset classes. Over the last 12 months, management fees across private equity, real assets, and credit and liquid strategies were each over $1 billion and in aggregate have grown at a high teens CAGR over the past three years.

我們幾乎有一半的投資專家都在美國境外。具體來看我們的管理費，它們在各個資產類別中都是非常多元的。在過去 12 個月中，私募股權、實物資產以及信貸和流動性策略的管理費用均超過 10 億美元，並且總體而言在過去三年中以高達 15% 的複合年增長率增長。

We don't think that there are any asset management firms that combine our scale, growth profile, and diversification. Now I'll end where I started this is an environment where our people and our model really should excel. With that, let me hand it off to Scott.

我們認為沒有任何資產管理公司能夠將我們的規模、成長狀況和多樣化結合起來。現在我要結束剛才的發言，這是一個我們的人民和我們的模式真正應該出類拔萃的環境。說完這些，讓我把它交給史考特。

Thanks, Rob, and thanks, everybody, for joining our call today. Given the recent volatility and uncertainty, I want to spend a few minutes on how we're navigating this environment and address what else may be on your minds. Before I do that, some context. Today is KKR's 49th birthday. We were founded on this day in 1976.

謝謝羅布，也謝謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。鑑於最近的波動和不確定性，我想花幾分鐘時間介紹我們如何應對這種環境，並解答大家可能關心的其他問題。在此之前，我先介紹一些背景資訊。今天是KKR的49歲生日。我們成立於 1976 年的今天。

Joe and I have been here nearly 29 of those 49 years. Over this period, the firm has seen a number of cycles and dislocations. In our experience, times like this yield some very attractive investment opportunities.

在這 49 年中，喬和我在這裡住了近 29 年。在此期間，該公司經歷了許多週期和混亂。根據我們的經驗，這樣的時期會帶來一些非常有吸引力的投資機會。

The key is to use our global and diversified business model with significant locked-up capital and $116 billion of dry powder to keep investing when others are scared. These periods always end, and we typically look back and wish we had invested more when the world is most uncertain.

關鍵在於利用我們全球化和多元化的商業模式，以及大量鎖定資本和 1,160 億美元的資金，在其他人感到恐慌時繼續投資。這些時期總會結束，我們通常會回顧過去，希望當初在世界最不確定的時候投入更多。

We are running the firm with those lessons in mind. We did a good job leaning into the COVID dislocation, and we're approaching this environment with the same mindset. As Rob mentioned, we've announced over $10 billion of investments in the last four weeks since the tariff announcement. And we have significant pipelines across our businesses. So you should expect to continue to see us investing into this environment.

我們在經營公司時會牢記這些教訓。我們在應對新冠疫情造成的混亂方面做得很好，我們正以同樣的心態應對當前的環境。正如羅布所提到的，自關稅公告發布以來，我們在過去四周宣布了超過 100 億美元的投資。我們的業務範圍內擁有重要的管道。因此，您應該期待看到我們繼續對這一環境進行投資。

No doubt some sale processes may be delayed if this continues, but it is times like this where we see the benefit of being very global as Asia and Europe are less impacted so far and multi-asset class and connected as companies still need capital but may prefer debt over equity if valuations are down.

毫無疑問，如果這種情況持續下去，一些銷售流程可能會被推遲，但正是在這種時候，我們看到了全球化的好處，因為到目前為止，亞洲和歐洲受到的影響較小，而且多資產類別和相互聯繫的公司仍然需要資本，但如果估值下降，他們可能更喜歡債務而不是股權。

So we are optimistic about deployment and the returns we will see from this vintage. We're also sure you have questions about what this means for monetizations. As Rob mentioned, we have a mature portfolio and benefit from linear and disciplined deployment. As such, we have record embedded gains in our portfolio, and those gains are global and across asset classes.

因此，我們對今年的部署和回報持樂觀態度。我們也確信您會對這對貨幣化意味著什麼有疑問。正如 Rob 所提到的，我們擁有成熟的產品組合，並受益於線性和規範的部署。因此，我們的投資組合中獲得了創紀錄的內含收益，而這些收益是全球性的，涵蓋了各種資產類別。

Here again, we have good line of sight and several assets in sale processes. So we remain of the view that we can monetize gains in this environment. And if we do decide to delay some processes, that just means we will likely monetize more next year. And we're sure you also have some questions about fundraising. We want you to have our views and some facts.

在這裡，我們在銷售過程中擁有良好的視野和多項資產。因此，我們仍然認為，我們可以在這種環境下將收益貨幣化。如果我們確實決定推遲一些流程，那就意味著我們明年可能會獲得更多的利潤。我們確信您也對籌款有一些疑問。我們希望您了解我們的觀點和一些事實。

As an example, China-based LPs make up a low single-digit percentage of our AUM. Some may delay decisions in this environment, but we don't expect a material impact. We're also watching private wealth flows, which have not been affected to date. These markets are in adoption phase, and we have a long history of outperforming in down markets. So this period could actually accelerate adoption over time.

例如，中國的 LP 在我們的 AUM 中所佔比例僅為個位數。在這種環境下，有些人可能會推遲做出決定，但我們預計不會產生實質影響。我們也關注私人財富流動，迄今尚未受到影響。這些市場正處於採用階段，我們在低迷的市場中有著長期優異的表現。因此，這段時期實際上可以加速採用。

And we think our partnership with Capital Group will accelerate that adoption as well. And remember, a good portion of our fundraising comes through Global Atlantic. We expect annuity demand to be largely unaffected in this environment, and it could be positively impacted as investors focus on safety and quality.

我們認為與 Capital Group 的合作也將加速這項應用。請記住，我們籌集的資金很大一部分來自 Global Atlantic。我們預計，在這種環境下，年金需求基本上不會受到影響，而且由於投資者關注安全性和品質，年金需求可能會受到正面影響。

In short, given our momentum and the diversity of our global fundraising channels, we remain confident we will continue to raise scale to. Stepping back, you're also likely wondering if we have changed our view of what we are capable of achieving as a firm.

簡而言之，鑑於我們的發展勢頭和全球籌款管道的多樣性，我們仍然有信心繼續擴大規模。退一步來說，您可能也想知道我們是否改變了對我們作為一家公司能夠取得什麼成就的看法。

We have not. Joe and I shared 2026 guidance last year. We still feel good about those numbers across both our fundraising and financial metrics. When you cut through it, we believe that while this dislocation may be different for a variety of reasons, the key is to stay focused on what we control and to not waste the opportunities it affords.

我們沒有。去年喬和我分享了 2026 年的指導方針。我們仍然對籌款和財務指標方面的數字感到滿意。當你深入思考時，我們相信，儘管這種錯位可能因為各種原因而有所不同，但關鍵是要專注於我們能控制的事情，不要浪費它所提供的機會。

We will continue investing, speaking with our clients, finding new themes, and looking for strategic opportunities, some of which are only available in times of distress.

我們將繼續投資、與客戶交談、尋找新的主題並尋找策略機遇，其中一些只有在危難時刻才會出現。

Times like this reveal experience, culture and business model durability, and they give us the opportunity to differentiate ourselves with performance, client engagement, and strategic action, so that we emerge stronger as a firm and as investors. That's our focus and intent. With that, we're happy to take your questions.

這樣的時刻展現了經驗、文化和商業模式的持久性，也為我們提供了透過績效、客戶參與和策略行動來脫穎而出的機會，從而使我們作為一家公司和投資者變得更加強大。這就是我們的重點和意圖。我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Craig Siegenthaler, Bank of America.

克雷格·西根塔勒，美國銀行。

Scott, Rob, happy 49th birthday and hope everyone's doing well. Our question is on your Asia business. So we all know that you have the largest private markets business across Asia. So we're curious in your perspective on what the emerging trade war means for your strategy, your ability to fundraise, and also investing effort across the region.

史考特、羅布，祝你們 49 歲生日快樂，希望大家一切順利。我們的問題是關於你們的亞洲業務。因此我們都知道，你們擁有亞洲最大的私人市場業務。因此，我們很好奇您對新興貿易戰對您的策略、籌資能力以及整個地區的投資努力意味著什麼的看法。

Thanks for the question, Craig. No change to our strategy. I mean one of the things we talked about in the prepared remarks is that we learned a lot kind of going through Trump 1.0 and thinking about tariff implications, learned a lot during COVID about supply chain as an example. So we have been looking at investments across asset classes with those lessons and the benefit of that time frame in mind. So no change to our strategy.

謝謝你的提問，克雷格。我們的策略沒有改變。我的意思是，我們在準備好的發言中談到的一件事是，我們在經歷川普 1.0 並思考關稅影響的過程中學到了很多東西，例如在 COVID 期間學到了很多關於供應鏈的知識。因此，我們一直在研究跨資產類別的投資，並考慮到這些經驗教訓和該時間框架的好處。所以我們的策略沒有改變。

Our effort, as you know, is cross-asset class and Pan-Asia. And so we have efforts across private equity, real estate, infra credit, the beginnings of an insurance effort, 9 offices across the region approaching 600 people.

如您所知，我們的努力是跨資產類別和泛亞洲的。因此，我們在私募股權、房地產、基礎設施信貸和保險業務方面都做出了努力，在該地區設有 9 個辦事處，員工人數接近 600 人。

So we think it is a big opportunity for us as a firm, and we see a lot of growth ahead. On the margin, one of our themes for a while has been intra-Asia trade as just an example. We think that's going to be an even bigger opportunity now on the back of this.

因此，我們認為這對我們公司來說是一個巨大的機遇，我們看到了未來的巨大成長。順便提一下，我們一段時間以來的主題之一就是亞洲內部貿易，這只是一個例子。我們認為，這將是一個更大的機會。

And perhaps, as investors stay focused on being even more global with their portfolios, like I would say January, February, there was a little bit of a bent toward, maybe I should have more in the US. On the margin, I think it's going to be beneficial to a flows if people decide to stay more global. And so it's something that I think will benefit us given our scale in the region.

也許，隨著投資人繼續關注其投資組合的全球化，就像我會說的 1 月、2 月那樣，我有點傾向於在美國投資更多。從邊際上來說，我認為如果人們決定要更加全球化，這將有利於資金流動。因此，考慮到我們在該地區的規模，我認為這將使我們受益。

And then Craig, it's Craig. I was just going to add some numbers to this. I think you're broadly aware of this. I know you spent a healthy amount of time in the region yourself. But at the end of 2019, we had $21 billion of AUM.

然後是克雷格，就是克雷格。我只是想添加一些數字。我想您大致了解這一點。我知道您自己在該地區度過了相當長一段時間。但截至 2019 年底，我們的資產管理規模已達 210 億美元。

Almost 90% was in private equity. And looking at Q1 '25, we had about $70 billion of AUM with traditional PE comprising just below 50% of that. So as Scott noted, meaningful growth with meaningful diversification at the same time.

幾乎 90% 都是私募股權投資。看看 2025 年第一季度，我們的資產管理規模約為 700 億美元，其中傳統 PE 佔比略低於 50%。正如斯科特所說，有意義的成長與有意義的多樣化是同時存在的。

Just for my follow-up, I heard your commentary towards the end of the call on the resilience of private wealth flows, and actually, the potential for an acceleration coming out of this correction. Do you see the strong relative performance to date or the very low adoptions as the key drivers? And was that comment really broad across asset class? Because I know you're doing very well, in particular in private equity, just given CapEx strong recent performance.

只是為了跟進，我在電話會議結束時聽到了您對私人財富流動的彈性以及實際上這次調整後加速的可能性的評論。您是否認為迄今為止強勁的相對錶現或非常低的採用率是關鍵驅動因素？這個評論真的適用於所有資產類別嗎？因為我知道你們做得很好，特別是在私募股權方面，鑑於資本支出近期表現強勁。

Yeah. I think it all really is a comment on our ability to perform through a cycle, Craig. And so the comment was more if the public markets pull back, that's when we tend to outperform by even more. So if the private wealth channel, which is newer to the alternative space, has that experience, we think time that could actually accelerate adoption. So it was more of a forward-looking comment.

是的。我認為這一切實際上都是對我們完成整個週期的能力的評論，克雷格。因此，更多的評論是，如果公開市場回調，我們的表現往往會更加出色。因此，如果替代領域中較新的私人財富管道擁有這樣的經驗，我們認為時間實際上可以加速採用。因此這更像是一種前瞻性的評論。

You're right, we haven't really seen it impact flows as of yet. Craig will walk through some numbers in a minute. But for us, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we've been around a long time, we've seen a lot of cycles, and we're a learning organization. And so we learned a lot of lessons during the financial crisis, and one of those was the importance of linear deployment and portfolio construction. As you know, we've been talking about it for a long time.

你說得對，到目前為止我們還沒有真正看到它對流量的影響。克雷格將在一分鐘內介紹一些數字。但對我們來說，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們已經存在很長時間了，我們已經看到了很多周期，我們是一個學習型組織。因此，我們在金融危機期間學到了很多教訓，其中之一就是線性部署和投資組合建構的重要性。如你所知，我們已經討論這個問題很久了。

We've been implementing it for a long time. It's now coming through the results. And so the bigger performance point, I think, is going to start to shine through and show how differentiated we are. So just to take one example, Americas Private Equity, over the last eight years, we've returned 2 times the amount of capital that we've called. And that's in a business that's been growing.

我們已經實施它很長時間了。現在結果已經出來了。因此，我認為，更大的性能點將開始顯現，並顯示出我們的差異化。舉一個例子，美洲私募股權投資公司，在過去的八年裡，我們回饋了我們所要求的資本的兩倍。這是一個正在不斷成長的業務。

And so we think this is going to allow us to outperform over time in terms of capital access. And we do see it as a go-forward advantage across channels. So private wealth is part of that, but we also see the benefit across institutional and everything else we do. Craig, do you want to give an update on private wealth?

因此我們認為這將使我們在資本獲取方面隨著時間的推移而表現出色。我們確實認為這是跨渠道前進的優勢。因此，私人財富是其中的一部分，但我們也看到了它在機構和我們所做的一切事情中的好處。克雷格，你想介紹一下私人財富的最新情況嗎？

Yeah. We were looking at the stats through April. If you look at Q3 and Q4, we were below that $3 billion of new capital raised in Q3, right at about that in Q4. In Q1, we raised $4 billion across the K-Series for the quarter. And when we look at activity at this point through April, so 1-month period, we're right at about that $1 billion level.

是的。我們正在查看四月份的統計數據。如果你看一下第三季和第四季度，你會發現我們在第三季籌集的新資本低於 30 億美元，而第四季籌集的新資本大約是這個數字。在第一季度，我們透過 K 系列籌集了 40 億美元。當我們觀察截至 4 月的活動時，也就是 1 個月的時間裡，我們的資金就達到了 10 億美元的水準。

So it feels like a healthy month for us. It's interesting, when you look at overall flows, in particular, for private equity and infrastructure, in Q1, roughly half of those were inside the US, roughly half outside the US. And based again on this preliminary data for the month of April, we're again, very diversified with a pretty equal split both inside and outside the US. So again, overall, tough to read too much into any four weeks of data, particularly April of '25. But at this point, things look okay.

所以對我們來說，這是一個健康的月份。有趣的是，當你查看整體資金流動，特別是私募股權和基礎設施資金流動時，你會發現第一季大約有一半資金在美國境內，大約有一半資金在美國境外。再次根據四月的初步數據，我們的業務分佈非常多樣化，美國境內和境外的業務分佈相當均衡。所以，總的來說，很難對任何四周的數據進行過多解讀，尤其是 25 年 4 月的數據。但目前看來，一切都還好。

Alex Blostein, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的亞歷克斯‧布洛斯坦 (Alex Blostein)。

So zooming out a little bit, the comments over the course of your prepared remarks suggested a much more resilient business perhaps what's perceived in the market today. You talked about monetization not quite falling off the cliff. Deployment in dry powder, really healthy, it sounds like you're not really changing the outlook for fundraising either. So the question obviously is what doing what it's done over the last few months, why not step up the buyback here?

因此，稍微擴大一點來看，您在準備好的發言過程中所發表的評論表明，該業務可能比現在的市場所認為的更有彈性。您談到了貨幣化並沒有完全崩潰。部署乾粉，真的很健康，聽起來你也沒有真正改變籌款的前景。因此，問題顯然是，按照過去幾個月的做法，為什麼不加大回購力道呢？

I know it's a dynamic approach. You guys have talked about in the past, and you're looking to generate the best return on invested capital. But if not now, when? And maybe you guys can also hit on expectations for putting the $2 billion-plus of convert to work and kind of how you're thinking about use of those proceeds.

我知道這是一種動態的方法。你們過去曾討論過，你們希望獲得最佳的投資回報。但如果不是現在，那要等到什麼時候？也許你們還可以談談對將 20 多億美元轉換資金投入使用的期望，以及你們打算如何使用這些收益。

Great. Alex, it's Rob. Why don't I start? So we've been very consistent as it relates to capital allocation for some time, and I really do think the most important thing for any capital allocation process is consistency. And we've got two goals, one of which is to make sure that every marginal dollar of free cash flow is going to generate the most amount of long-term earnings per share.

偉大的。亞歷克斯，我是羅布。我為什麼不開始呢？因此，我們在資本配置方面一直非常一致，我確實認為任何資本配置過程中最重要的是一致性。我們有兩個目標，其中之一就是確保每一美元的自由現金流都能產生最高的長期每股盈餘。

And the second goal, closely related, is to make sure that we are increasing the quality of those earnings. So more durability, more resilience, more recurring nature of those earnings. And every marginal dollar of free cash flow, we look at through that lens. And we've talked about four areas of using our capital base to accomplish those goals, one of which is share buybacks. The other three are core private equity, strategic M&A and insurance.

與之密切相關的第二個目標是確保我們提高這些收益的品質。因此，這些收益的持久性、彈性和重複性都更強。我們透過這個視角來審視自由現金流的每一美元邊際價值。我們討論了利用資本基礎來實現這些目標的四個方面，其中之一就是股票回購。另外三項是核心私募股權、策略併購和保險。

Share buybacks, as you know, over the past several years, have been a really important part of our capital allocation framework and use of capital. And I've got every confidence that as we look forward and as we think about using our capital, share buybacks will continue to be a core part of how we think about capital allocation. But we also don't have a framework that puts a specific amount in any one bucket.

如您所知，過去幾年來，股票回購一直是我們資本配置框架和資本使用中非常重要的一部分。我完全相信，當我們展望未來並考慮使用我們的資本時，股票回購將繼續成為我們考慮資本配置的核心部分。但我們也沒有一個框架來將特定數量放入任何一個桶子中。

To us, it's all about how do we take that marginal dollar of cash flow and drive the most earnings per share across our business over a long period of time with the most amount of durability and resilience to that cash flow. And we're going to take that same lens.

對我們來說，關鍵在於如何利用邊際現金流，在很長一段時間內，以最高的持久性和彈性實現我們業務的最大每股收益。我們將採用同樣的鏡頭。

And as I said, I would expect that share buybacks, as we look forward, will continue to be a very important part of that allocation framework. And maybe the last point, because I think any time we're talking about capital allocation it's important to point this out. KKR senior management own roughly 30% of KKR.

正如我所說，我預計，展望未來，股票回購將繼續成為該分配框架中非常重要的一部分。也許是最後一點，因為我認為任何時候我們談論資本配置時，指出這一點都很重要。KKR 高階管理層擁有 KKR 約 30% 的股份。

So any decision that we take around capital structure, around capital allocation, you briefly mentioned the convert we did a couple of months ago, was really through that lens in a way that is highly aligned with our shareholder base. And that's really the approach that we've taken.

因此，我們圍繞著資本結構、資本配置做出的任何決定，正如您簡要提到的，我們幾個月前所做的轉換，都是透過這種視角，以與我們的股東基礎高度一致的方式做出的。這確實就是我們採取的方法。

And if you look at share buybacks historically, we've used our capital base to retire roughly 10% of our shares outstanding, 15% of our free float. We've done so at an average price of roughly $28 per share. And so we like our historical body of work and would expect that it -- going forward, we're going to continue to be able to find accretive ways to put that capital work for all of our shareholders.

如果你回顧一下歷史上的股票回購，你會發現，我們利用資本基礎回購了約 10% 的流通股和 15% 的自由流通股。我們以每股約 28 美元的平均價格完成了這項交易。因此，我們喜歡我們過去的工作成果，並期望——展望未來，我們將繼續能夠找到增值的方式，讓這些資本為我們所有的股東服務。

Bill Katz, TD Cowen.

比爾·卡茨（Bill Katz），TD Cowen。

This is Manu on for Bill. Happy birthday, you guys. Just wanted to say that. Maybe a question on asset-backed finance. Maybe update us on the platform as we go into the balance of 2025, some color on expanding the sourcing funnel and bank partnerships.

這是馬努 (Manu) 替換比爾 (Bill)。祝大家生日快樂。我只是想說這個。也許是有關資產支持融資的問題。當我們進入 2025 年平衡時，也許可以在平台上更新一些關於擴大採購管道和銀行合作夥伴關係的資訊。

Manu, It's Craig. Why don't I start? Glad you asked about. So look, first on page 13 of our release, this is the page that details our credit and liquid strategies business. We break out the composition of the AUM in that piece.

馬努，我是克雷格。我為什麼不開始呢？很高興您詢問。所以請看，首先在我們發布的第 13 頁，這一頁詳細介紹了我們的信貸和流動性策略業務。我們在那篇文章中詳細闡述了 AUM 的組成。

And if you look overall, total credit AUM up 10% year over year, $280 billion-plus of AUM. The private credit component is growing at even a faster rate. So we've got $117 billion of AUM, up 26%. And within that private credit piece, $74 billion of that is in asset-based finance and ABF year over year has grown at a number between 35% and 40%. So the asset-based finance business is a big business for us.

如果你從整體來看，總信貸 AUM 年增 10%，達到 2,800 多億美元。私人信貸部分成長速度更快。因此我們的資產管理規模為 1,170 億美元，成長了 26%。在私人信貸領域，有 740 億美元是資產融資，ABF 的年增長率在 35% 到 40% 之間。因此，資產融資業務對我們來說是一項大業務。

Our scale here is probably larger than someone might expect. And so back to your question on how we're positioned at this market. Look, it's a lot of the same things you would have heard from us historically, massive end market, $6 trillion on its way to $9 trillion. In our view, you've got really high barriers to entry. There's a lack of scale capital with, as you noted, a number of traditional providers, in our view, leaving this market and are creating a void.

我們的規模可能比人們想像的還要大。所以回到你的問題，我們在這個市場的定位如何。你看，這和我們過去說過的很多事情是一樣的，巨大的終端市場，規模從 6 兆美元成長到 9 兆美元。我們認為，你們的進入門檻確實很高。正如您所說，我們認為，由於缺乏規模資本，許多傳統供應商正在退出這個市場並造成空白。

So we're continuing to find attractive risk/reward. I think our clients like the diversification away from the corporate credit cycle. And in terms of the current environment, we think this is a very good environment for asset-based finance. We think companies are still going to look to be efficient with volatile markets as companies look to finance themselves. We think companies will continue to look for creative ways to finance themselves off balance sheet.

因此，我們將繼續尋找有吸引力的風險/回報。我認為我們的客戶喜歡擺脫企業信貸週期的多元化。就當前環境而言，我們認為這對資產融資來說是一個非常好的環境。我們認為，隨著公司尋求自身融資，它們仍將在動盪的市場中尋求高效運作。我們認為，公司將繼續尋找創意的方式來實現表外融資。

Again, as we think about banks, we think our opportunity set will continue to increase. And if you look at overall asset-based finance deployment for us, it was a little over $4 billion in Q1 over [the trailing two months, we're at about 21]. So again, it's a healthy part of deployment for us. Just to give you a frame of reference, 2023, that number was at about $8 billion.

再次，當我們考慮銀行時，我們認為我們的機會集將繼續增加。如果你看我們整體的資產融資部署，第一季略高於 40 億美元[接下來的兩個月，我們大約是 21 歲]。所以，這對我們來說是部署的一個健康部分。只給你一個參考框架，2023 年，這個數字約為 80 億美元。

So you're seeing really significant growth for us in a number of different asset classes. It just feels like there's a lot more for us to do.

因此，您會看到我們在許多不同資產類別中都實現了顯著的成長。我只是覺得我們還有很多事情要做。

Ben Budish, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的本‧布迪什 (Ben Budish)。

I wanted to ask maybe a two-in-one on Capital Markets fees. I know sometimes you kind of gave a look into what -- how Q2 is shaping up. So I was wondering if you could do that. But I'm also curious, in your -- in the slide deck, you noted that about two-thirds of transaction fees were debt-focused in the quarter. Can you talk about what is that historically?

我想問一下資本市場費用的二合一問題。我知道有時你會關註一下第二季的進展。所以我想知道你是否可以做到這一點。但我也很好奇，在您的幻燈片中，您指出本季約三分之二的交易費用都集中在債務上。您能從歷史上談談那是什麼嗎？

Is this sort of a function of a changing environment or part of a more explicit strategy to kind of broaden the type of business you're doing there?

這是環境變化的結果，還是為了擴大您在那裡所做業務類型的更明確的策略的一部分？

Great. Ben, thanks a lot for the question. Maybe I'll answer the second part of the question first because it's the shorter part of the answer. Roughly, we've been at that two-thirds level over time. So no real big change in the quarter.

偉大的。本，非常感謝你的提問。也許我會先回答問題的第二部分，因為這是答案中較短的部分。粗略地說，我們一直處於三分之二的水平。因此本季沒有發生真正的大變化。

As it relates to our Capital Markets business, the fees, listen, Q1 was a really solid quarter for us, particularly in the backdrop, $230 million of revenue. Q1 tends to be historically a lighter quarter. And frankly, as we came into the quarter, looking at the pipelines, I think we thought we'd be a little bit shy of that number. As we look at Q2, especially with the backdrop that we have, lower deal flow out there, we've got a very solid pipeline. Does that shape up to be similar revenue numbers Q1?

就我們的資本市場業務費用而言，第一季對我們來說是一個非常穩健的季度，特別是在 2.3 億美元的收入背景下。從歷史上看，第一季通常是一個較為清淡的季度。坦白說，當我們進入本季度時，看看管道，我想我們認為我們會稍微低於這個數字。當我們展望第二季度時，特別是在交易量較低的背景下，我們擁有非常穩固的管道。這是否與第一季的營收數字類似？

Not sure. We might be a little bit shy of that. But given the environment, feel really good about that pipeline. Back half of the year, we're going to need to see. Let's see how the environment plays out, how the capital markets shape up.

沒有把握。我們可能對此有點害羞。但考慮到環境，對該管道感覺非常好。回望下半年，我們需要拭目以待。讓我們看看環境如何發展，資本市場如何形成。

But as we sit here, May 1, 2025, when we look at Q1, look at our forward pipeline, feel better about it than we felt May 1, 2024. Now we had a big back half of the year in 2024. We'll see how the rest of '25 shakes out, but we feel really good with how our business continues to be able to perform in different market environments.

但是，當我們坐在這裡，2025 年 5 月 1 日，當我們回顧第一季度，回顧我們的未來規劃時，感覺比 2024 年 5 月 1 日更好。現在我們迎來了 2024 年下半年的重要時刻。我們將拭目以待 25 年剩餘時間的情況如何，但我們對我們的業務在不同的市場環境中繼續表現感到非常滿意。

You look at 2022 and 2023, we generated roughly $600 million of revenue in both of those years. So really projected downside in that business, created more of a floor from a revenue perspective in very choppy capital markets environments.

看看 2022 年和 2023 年，我們在這兩年都創造了約 6 億美元的收入。因此，在非常動盪的資本市場環境中，該業務確實預計會出現下行趨勢，從收入角度來看，這為該業務創造了更大的底線。

And then you saw a spike to roughly $1 billion of revenue when the markets opened up in 2024. Team has done an awesome job building that business over the last almost two decades, and we think there's a lot of upside from here.

然後，當 2024 年市場開放時，你會看到收入飆升至約 10 億美元。在過去的近二十年裡，團隊在打造這項業務方面做出了巨大的貢獻，我們認為未來還有很大的發展空間。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore.

格倫·肖爾（Glenn Schorr），Evercore。

So want to circle back to the conversation on private equity. You clearly helped us see how the linear deployment and investment pacing helps your particular situation, especially if you look at even Americas XII and the capital you've returned. So the question is broader. Do you expect -- in 2006, '07, and '08 vintages that was kind of subpar performance for the industry, people thought private equity is dead. We go out and we've raised a lot of money at doubles and triples.

因此我想回到關於私募股權的討論。您清楚地幫助我們了解了線性部署和投資節奏如何幫助您的特定情況，特別是如果您查看 Americas XII 和您已返還的資本。所以這個問題比較廣泛。您是否預料到——2006 年、2007 年和 2008 年，該行業的表現都低於平均水平，人們認為私募股權已經死了。我們出去籌集了很多雙倍和三倍的資金。

So the question is, is this time any different for the industry? There's more funds, there's more assets raised, there's subpar performance. Are we going to see a bigger shakeout? Because we didn't see enough of one in past downturns. So the real question at the end of all that is, will we see lower allocations to private equity or just a dispersion and consolidation to the better performance?

那麼問題是，這次對於該行業來說有什麼不同嗎？資金越來越多，籌集的資產也越來越多，但業績卻低於平均水準。我們是否將會看到一場更大的洗牌？因為在過去的經濟衰退中，我們並沒有看到足夠多這樣的情況。所以，最終的真正問題是，我們是否會看到私募股權的配置減少，還是只是分散和整合到更好的業績中？

Glenn, it's Scott. It's a great question. Our expectation is that it'll probably more about where you ended up. It'll be more about dispersion. And I think you're going to have meaningful dispersion of results across private equity managers.

格倫，我是史考特。這是一個很好的問題。我們的期望是，它可能會更專注於你的最終去向。它將更多地與分散有關。我認為私募股權經理人之間的業績將會出現顯著的差異。

And that will start to come through maybe in a way that it hasn't, to your point, for a very long time. We've already seen a trend for a while of institutional investors, in particular, globally wanting to do more with fewer. And so they've been consolidating their relationships with people that they think can perform through a cycle and that, in a lot of cases, are global and multi-asset class. Obviously, we've benefited from that. So I think it's going to be -- I wouldn't use the term shakeout. I think there'll be more of a concentration of capital with fewer players.

而這種現像也許會以一種很久以來都沒有出現過的方式出現。我們已經看到這樣一種趨勢：尤其是全球範圍內的機構投資者希望用更少的資金做更多的事情。因此，他們一直在鞏固與那些他們認為能夠經歷一個週期的人的關係，而且在許多情況下，這些關係都是全球性和多資產類別的。顯然，我們從中受益。所以我認為這將是——我不會使用“洗牌”這個詞。我認為資本會更加集中，而參與者會更少。

And I think we'll now see the benefit of what I mentioned before that we learned a lot during GFC, during COVID, during Trump 1.0. We've been applying those learnings. Volatility creates opportunity. But you need to have the capital to invest and the courage to invest it.

我認為我們現在會看到我之前提到的好處，我們在全球金融危機、新冠疫情和川普 1.0 期間學到了很多東西。我們一直在運用這些經驗教訓。波動創造機會。但你需要有投資的資本和投資的勇氣。

And we, as a firm -- and we talk about culture all the time here. We're incredibly well-connected, and if nothing else, we learn. And so hopefully, that will benefit us as it comes through results. But I think it's going to be dispersion as opposed to shakeout.

作為一家公司，我們一直在這裡談論文化。我們擁有極其廣泛的聯繫，即使沒有別的，我們也能夠學習。因此，希望它能透過結果為我們帶來好處。但我認為這將是一種分散，而不是震盪。

Steve Chubak, Wolfe Research.

史蒂夫·楚巴克，沃爾夫研究公司。

So recognize that you're planning for a more fulsome update on partnership in the second half, but was hoping you could just provide some early color on distribution strategy and specifically areas of differentiation versus other competing products and just how these vehicles might evolve over time.

因此，認識到您計劃在下半年對合作夥伴關係進行更全面的更新，但希望您能夠提供一些關於分銷策略的早期信息，特別是與其他競爭產品的差異化領域，以及這些工具隨著時間的推移將如何發展。

Steve, it's Craig. Why don't I start? We're obviously at the earliest of days, are really excited with being in a position to launch the two vehicles. You've seen in the press release from a couple of days ago that there's more to come with a private equity-focused product in addition to real assets yield-oriented products. And alongside of that, there are initiatives focused on things like model as well as target date funds.

史蒂夫，我是克雷格。我為什麼不開始呢？顯然，我們正處於起步階段，對於能夠推出這兩款車型感到非常興奮。大家在幾天前的新聞稿中已經看到，除了以實體資產收益為導向的產品外，還有更多以私募股權為重點的產品即將推出。除此之外，還有一些專注於模型和目標日期基金等方面的措施。

So we're just at the -- again, at the earliest of days. And we were preparing for the question of what do we think that looks like. And that is -- Steve, that's a super-tough question to answer because in many ways, it feels like together, we both are forging a new path, a very exciting path. And we'll keep everybody abreast in terms of progress as we go forward. But our mindset, as you've heard from us over time, is not on new capital raised in a 3, 6, or 12-month period.

所以我們才剛開始——再說一次，才剛開始。我們正在準備回答我們認為它是什麼樣子的問題。那就是——史蒂夫，這是一個非常難回答的問題，因為在很多方面，感覺就像我們都在共同開闢一條新的道路，一條非常令人興奮的道路。我們將隨時向大家通報我們前進的進展。但正如您長期以來聽到的那樣，我們的想法並不在於在 3 個月、6 個月或 12 個月內籌集新資本。

We together are trying to design products that we think 5, 10, 15 years from now, collectively, we're both going to look back at and feel really proud about the net investment performance that we've delivered on behalf of our clients.

我們共同努力設計一些產品，我們認為 5 年、10 年、15 年後，當我們回顧這些產品時，我們會對我們代表客戶所實現的淨投資表現感到非常自豪。

And if we are successful in that part of the equation, we're going to be able to raise just a fine amount of money. So again, just -- there's a lot of excitement within our firm, I think, within Capital Group as well about the opportunity. And it's just right at this point to be launched and underway.

如果我們在這一方面取得成功，我們將能夠籌集到相當數量的資金。所以，我想，我們公司內部，包括 Capital Group 內部，都對這個機會感到非常興奮。現在正是啟動和運行的最佳時機。

Steve, it's Scott. I think Craig said it well. We've talked about the private wealth opportunity for a while. We do think that it is significant. As you know, a lot of institutions globally are 30% to 50% in alternatives.

史蒂夫，我是史考特。我認為克雷格說得很好。我們已經討論了一段時間的私人財富機會。我們確實認為這很重要。如你所知，全球許多機構的另類投資佔比為 30% 至 50%。

Individual investors are low single digits, depending on what you look at, 1% or 2%. So the opportunity for kind of expanding our market is meaningful. But even more importantly for that, it just doesn't make sense that if you're a teacher in Texas and you retired, you have 30%, 40% of your retirement funds invested in alternatives.

個人投資者的比例較低，為個位數，取決於你怎麼看，1% 或 2%。因此，擴大我們的市場的機會是有意義的。但更重要的是，如果你是德州的退休教師，你將 30% 甚至 40% 的退休金投資於其他投資，這根本說不通。

And if you're a retired dentist, you have zero, you haven't had access to what we do. And so with K-Series, we have been focused on hitting the accretive investor and stock US market for a minute that's $1 million of net worth and up. That is about 5% -- anyway, you look at, 5% to 7% of US households. And as you know, we've launched there and we're underway. And those were some of the numbers Craig walked through before.

如果你是退休牙醫，你就沒有任何經驗，無法獲得我們所做的事情。因此，透過 K 系列，我們一直專注於吸引增值投資者和美國股票市場，其淨資產在一分鐘內達到 100 萬美元及以上。這大約是 5%——無論如何，你看，美國家庭的比例是 5% 到 7%。正如你所知，我們已經啟動並正在進行中。這些就是克雷格之前看過的一些數字。

With Capital Group, we're focused on the other 95%. And we have just launched these first two products in credit space. But what's coming, private equity, real estate, infrastructure models and figuring out how to access more efficiently the broader investor universe and target date, what can we do in 401(k)? So there's a lot more coming attractions than there is work done to date, and we think the opportunity is immense. But our focus, to be super clear, is investment performance that we generate for the client.

透過 Capital Group，我們專注於剩下的 95%。我們剛剛在信貸領域推出了這兩款產品。但是接下來會發生什麼事呢？私募股權、房地產、基礎設施模式以及如何更有效地接觸更廣泛的投資者群體和目標日期，我們可以在 401（k）中做些什麼？因此，即將推出的景點比迄今為止完成的工作要多得多，我們認為機會是巨大的。但我們的重點非常明確，是我們為客戶創造的投資績效。

And just like we have been for pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, family offices for nearly 50 years, that remains our focus and figuring out how to deliver that performance to that new audience with a fantastic partner.

正如我們近 50 年來為退休基金、主權財富基金、保險公司和家族理財室提供服務一樣，這仍然是我們的重點，並正在研究如何與優秀的合作夥伴一起為新的受眾提供這樣的服務。

Mike Brown, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥克布朗。

I wanted to ask on the flagship fundraising in 2025. So you had the first close on North America buyout. It seems like the industry-wide fundraising is elongated. So I wanted to ask then, what's the right time frame to consider for a final close? And then beyond North America buyout, where else are you expecting the inflows from the big flagships in 2025?

我想問一下2025年的旗艦募款狀況。所以你們首次完成了北美收購。看起來整個產業的融資過程都拉長了。所以我想問一下，最終成交的正確時間範圍是什麼時候？那麼，除了北美收購之外，您預計 2025 年大型旗艦企業的資金還會流入哪些地區？

I believe Asia is starting. So can we see some inflows in '25? And then what's the expected timing on the final close for Infra Fund V?

我相信亞洲正在開始。那麼我們能在 25 年看到一些資金流入嗎？那麼 Infra Fund V 的最終收盤預計時間是什麼時候？

Mike, it's Craig. Why don't I start? First, on infra and flagship infra fundraising, at 3/31, we're at a little over $11 billion, $11.3 billion, as you can see in the back of the release. I think we feel really good about progress to date. I think, to your point, if anything, we may be seeing a little bit more of a barbelled approach to fundraising in this environment.

麥克，我是克雷格。我為什麼不開始呢？首先，關於基礎設施和旗艦基礎設施融資，截至 3 月 31 日，我們的融資額略高於 110 億美元，達到 113 億美元，正如您在新聞稿中看到的那樣。我認為我們對迄今為止的進展感到非常滿意。我認為，正如您所說，如果有的話，我們可能會在這種環境下看到一種更嚴格的籌款方式。

So the biggest components of capital coming in either at the initial close to take advantage of first close discounts or the final close. I think that's probably always been the case, but perhaps feels maybe even a little more so in the current environment. Again, as it relates to Americas Private Equity, wrapped up the first close at [14].

因此，最大的資本組成部分要么在首次收盤時進入，以利用首次收盤折扣，要么在最終收盤時進入。我認為情況可能一直都是如此，但在當前環境下，這種感覺可能更加強烈。再次，就美洲私募股權而言，首次交易結束於[14]。

As Rob alluded to in the prepared remarks, just feel really great about progress to date and think it's a real credit to the team as we look at absolute returns and capital return and all the things that we've already talked about. We expect we'll have a couple of closes in America, and we'll launch fundraising for the flagship Asia strategy on the heels of that.

正如羅佈在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們對迄今為止的進展感到非常高興，並認為當我們考慮絕對回報和資本回報以及我們已經討論過的所有事情時，這對團隊來說是一種真正的榮譽。我們預計我們將在美國完成幾筆交易，並隨後為旗艦亞洲戰略啟動融資。

We don't -- we haven't announced publicly any specific timing as it relates to when we would launch that fundraising. But I think that is a topic that is certainly becoming front of mind for us here. And then similarly, we haven't announced a final close date on Infra V. Our first close period ended or -- was in July of '24. So we're well inside of 12 months at this point, and we'll keep you abreast as we move forward there.

我們還沒有公開宣布啟動募款活動的具體時間。但我認為這無疑是我們目前最關注的一個主題。同樣，我們還沒有宣布 Infra V 的最終截止日期。我們的第一個關閉期結束於——或者說——24 年 7 月。目前我們已經過了 12 個月的時間，我們會隨時向您通報進度。

But again, we just haven't announced any of -- any specific closing date on Infra V. I think the broader point just relates to the breadth of activity that you see for us because, on the one hand, there's always -- and we understand it, given the size of these vehicles, there's always a big focus on the flagship activity.

但同樣，我們還沒有宣布 Infra V 的任何具體截止日期。我認為更廣泛的觀點只與您看到的我們的活動範圍有關，因為一方面，總是有——我們理解，考慮到這些車輛的尺寸，旗艦活動總是受到高度關注。

But if you look at that activity for us and if that's been $20 billion or so in the trailing 12 months, probably a little north of that, that still means you've got $80 billion to $90 billion outside of that activity that you're seeing across the breadth of our platform. Lots of activity across the credit business, I think similarly broadly across infrastructure, even we launched fundraising for Asia infrastructure, the various wealth platforms, climate, et cetera. So there's just an underlying breadth of activity that gives us comfort.

但如果你看一下我們的活動，如果在過去 12 個月中這個數字是 200 億美元左右，可能略高於這個數字，那仍然意味著除了我們平台範圍內的活動之外，你還可以看到 800 億到 900 億美元。信貸業務領域有很多活動，我認為基礎建設領域也有很多類似的活動，我們甚至為亞洲基礎設施、各種財富平台、氣候等領域啟動了融資。因此，一系列潛在的活動讓我們感到安慰。

Yeah. I think the only thing I'd add just to underscore Craig's last point, we talked about the durability and diversity of the model. We've been very focused on this the last 10, 15 years. So flagships obviously remain very important. But LTM, just over 20% of the capital we've raised in the last two years, we've raised over $200 million of capital just over.

是的。我認為我唯一要補充的就是強調 Craig 的最後一點，我們討論了模型的耐用性和多樣性。過去 10 到 15 年我們一直非常關注這個問題。因此旗艦顯然仍然非常重要。但 LTM，我們在過去兩年籌集的資金略高於 20%，即超過 2 億美元的資金。

And it's been about 12% of that $200 billion. So just to give you a sense of the diversity of the fundraising channels that we have and all the different ways we can access capital, meaningfully different than how we looked and felt a decade ago.

這約佔 2,000 億美元的 12%。因此，只是為了讓您了解我們擁有的籌款管道的多樣性以及我們獲取資金的所有不同方式，這與十年前的樣子和感覺有很大不同。

Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

丹‧範農 (Dan Fannon)，傑富瑞集團。

Wanted to follow-up on just fundraising. And was hoping -- obviously, momentum is quite strong. Was hoping you could just talk about your conversations you're having with LPs, and generally, the health of that client base on the institutional side as you think -- in the heels of this kind of volatile market we've been in.

想要跟進籌款事宜。並且希望——顯然，勢頭相當強勁。希望您能談談您與 LP 的對話，以及您所認為的機構客戶群的整體健康狀況——在我們所處的這種動蕩的市場中。

Great. Thanks. Dan, Scott here. Let me take a shot at it. So we have had, as you'd expect, significant engagement with our clients the last several weeks. We tend to lean in even more when the world is uncertain and have even more connectivity.

偉大的。謝謝。丹，我是史考特。讓我嘗試一下。因此，正如您所期望的，過去幾週我們與客戶進行了大量的交流。當世界充滿不確定性並且連結性更強時，我們往往會更傾向於依賴它。

It's hard to paint everybody with one brush. But people are in healthy shape overall. So the characteristics of the dialogue, one, it's super early. So everybody is just processing all of this. What does it mean?

很難用一種筆觸來描繪所有人。但整體來說，人們的身體狀況還是健康的。因此，對話的特點是，第一，它發生得非常早。所以每個人都在處理這一切。這是什麼意思？

How do I think about it? What are we seeing around the world? So we're sharing that with everybody that we work for. And there's confusion on what this means, what it means in different places and where we end up. So a lot of the discussions are on macro, policy implications, geopolitics.

我怎麼想呢？我們在世界各地看到了什麼？因此，我們與我們工作的每個人分享這一點。人們對這意味著什麼、在不同地方意味著什麼以及最終結果如何感到困惑。因此，許多討論都是關於宏觀、政策影響和地緣政治的。

But the clients overall are liquid, and they're asking us, where should I lean in to take advantage of this, for the most part. I think a number of them probably wish they had invested more aggressively post-COVID and post the GFC.

但整體而言，客戶都是流動的，他們大多在問我們，我應該在哪裡利用這一點。我認為他們中的許多人可能希望自己在新冠疫情和全球金融危機之後能夠進行更積極的投資。

So they don't want to make the same mistake. So we're getting questions about traded and opportunistic credit as an example. So I'd characterize it on balance, of course, people -- some people are more concerned than others, but I'd characterize it as cautious greed and not wanting to look back and regret again.

所以他們不想犯同樣的錯誤。因此，我們以交易信貸和機會信貸為例提出問題。因此，我認為總的來說，當然，有些人比其他人更擔心，但我認為它是謹慎的貪婪，不想回頭再後悔。

Now I say all this and I mentioned it's changing very quickly. The S&P is now down 1% since April 1. And I haven't looked at where we're trading since our call started, and down 5%. So this is as of last night since the beginning of the year. And credit spreads, which were very tight, had moved back maybe to the averages.

現在我說了這一切，並且我提到它正在迅速變化。標準普爾指數自 4 月 1 日以來已下跌 1%。自從我們開始通話以來，我還沒有看過我們的交易情況，而且下跌了 5%。這是今年初截至昨晚的情況。而此前非常緊張的信用利差可能已經回到平均值。

We hadn't seen them flow out materially. So people are liquid and I think, overall, are trying to figure out how to take advantage of this. The other question we get is, how do I think about where to invest my money? A number of folks, as I mentioned before, had been thinking about if they were 60% to 70% US, should I be even more on the forward? That was January, February. Now it's more kind of retrenching. Maybe I've got it about right.

我們還沒有看到它們以物質形式流出。所以人們是流動的，我認為，總的來說，他們正在試圖弄清楚如何利用這一點。我們遇到的另一個問題是，我該如何考慮將我的錢投資到哪裡？正如我之前提到的，許多人都在思考，如果他們的人口中有 60% 到 70% 是美國人，我是否應該更積極？那是一月、二月。現在這更像是一種縮減。也許我的理解是對的。

Do I need to rethink it? And people are just trying to figure out what all this means. In the final analysis, the US is 25% of global GDP and 65% of global market cap. So said another way, US equity market is 2 times the size of Europe, Japan, and India combined.

我需要重新考慮嗎？人們只是想弄清楚這一切意味著什麼。歸根究底，美國佔全球GDP的25%和全球市值的65%。換句話說，美國股票市場的規模是歐洲、日本和印度總和的兩倍。

So as we talk to CIOs, CEOs around the world that are allocating capital, there's a recognition of that fact and the depth and liquidity of this market. And so we haven't seen anybody make any abrupt changes, but it's super early. So I'd say highly constructive discussions and business as usual plus a lot more engagement.

因此，當我們與世界各地配置資本的資訊長和執行長交談時，他們認識到了這一事實以及這個市場的深度和流動性。因此，我們還沒有看到任何人做出任何突然的改變，但現在還為時過早。因此，我認為討論將非常建設性，業務將照常進行，而且會有更多的參與。

Patrick Davitt, Autonomous Research.

戴維特（Patrick Davitt），自主研究。

My question is on the insurance discussion. I think you said you expect it to stay in the $250 million range for the next few quarters. But with the ongoing portfolio repositioning and now I would think potential for wider new investment spreads, why is there not room for that to tick up through the year?

我的問題是關於保險的討論。我想您說過，您預計未來幾季它將保持在 2.5 億美元的範圍內。但隨著投資組合的持續重新定位，以及現在我認為新的投資利差可能擴大，為什麼全年沒有上升空間？

Yeah. Thanks a lot for the question, Patrick. Let me -- there's a few different things going on. So let me just start with how we look at things and then I'll work towards your specific question. And we really do focus on that all-in ROE concept today.

是的。非常感謝您的提問，派崔克。讓我——有幾件不同的事情正在發生。因此，讓我先從我們如何看待事物開始，然後再回答您的具體問題。今天我們確實關注的是全額 ROE 概念。

We are approaching that 20% level, so pretty attractive in its own right. And we've got a clear path to sustainably beating that level to generate 20%-plus all-in ROEs, especially we get all elements of the business model working together.

我們正在接近 20% 的水平，因此這本身就相當有吸引力。我們有一條清晰的途徑來持續超越這一水平，實現 20% 以上的全部 ROE，特別是當我們讓商業模式的所有要素協同工作時。

And I'd point out that we're achieving that return level, while we're going through the integration of our business model at GA, which we know is going to put some near-term our segment operating earnings for a bit of time, all with the benefit of the longer-term economic profile that we think we can achieve. We know for us that, that's unquestionably the right path to take.

我想指出的是，我們正在實現這一回報水平，同時我們正在整合 GA 的業務模式，我們知道這將在一段時間內為我們的部分分部帶來一些短期營運收益，所有這些都將受益於我們認為可以實現的長期經濟狀況。我們知道，這無疑是一條正確的道路。

And I think you followed us for some time, others on the call have, I'm sure, as well, you know that we're always going to make the decision to decide for long-term economics even at the expense of short-term P&L.

我想您已經關注我們有一段時間了，我相信電話會議上的其他人也一樣，您知道我們總是會做出有利於長期經濟的決定，即使是以犧牲短期損益為代價。

Now going into a little bit more of the detail that will answer your question more specifically. We are working on a few different initiatives simultaneously, like all with good momentum. So let me give you a few different data points. This all starts how we evolve the business modestly here, all starts with elongating our liabilities.

現在讓我們更詳細地討論一下，以便更具體地回答您的問題。我們同時進行幾項不同的計劃，所有計劃都進展順利。所以讓我給你一些不同的數據點。這一切都始於我們如何在這裡適度發展業務，一切都始於延長我們的負債。

And if you look at Q1 of this year, in the retail channel, 90% of the annuities that we went out and sold and then the liabilities that we raised had a duration of five-plus years attached to them. If you go look at this time last year, that number was 65%. So really good progress on that important front. Number two, we've talked about taking our exposure to alternatives up. Industry average tends to be 5% to 8% exposure to alternatives.

如果你看今年第一季度，在零售通路中，我們銷售的 90% 年金以及我們籌集的債務期限都是五年以上。如果你看看去年這個時候，這個數字是 65%。因此，在這一重要方面確實取得了良好的進展。第二，我們討論了增加對替代品的接觸。行業平均值往往是 5% 至 8% 的替代品暴露率。

Global Atlantic, we mentioned at the end of last quarter, was 1%. In the quarter, we added roughly $1 billion of alternatives exposure, so making progress there, too. And then importantly, third-party capital is a very significant part of our strategy going forward. I referenced in the prepared remarks some of the momentum that we have there, the Japan post-strategic partnership of raising Ivy III right now. So there's a lot going on as it relates to third-party capital as well.

我們在上個季度末提到的 Global Atlantic 佔 1%。本季度，我們增加了約 10 億美元的替代投資，因此也取得了進展。重要的是，第三方資本是我們未來策略中非常重要的一部分。我在準備好的演講中提到了我們在那裡取得的一些進展，以及目前正在建立的常春藤三期日本後戰略夥伴關係。因此，與第三方資本相關的事情也有很多。

So good progress across these three very important initiatives. But to answer your question specifically, this is all going to take a little bit of time to impact the P&L and especially the part around the alternatives book and the growing alternatives book. Remember, much of that doesn't come through in yield. In addition to that, as we grow our third-party cap base, a big part of our go-forward strategy, those fees only turn on when the capital is invested. Again, will take a bit of time.

這三項非常重要的措施取得了良好的進展。但具體回答你的問題，這一切都需要一點時間來影響損益表，特別是替代品帳簿和不斷增長的替代品帳簿的部分。請記住，其中大部分都不會以收益的形式體現出來。除此之外，隨著我們第三方資本基礎的成長（這是我們未來策略的重要組成部分），這些費用只有在資本投入時才會產生。再一次，這需要一點時間。

So we think where this all lands is a very attractive run rate return inside the insurance business, I think, importantly, with lower leverage over time. And then with significant asset management economics alongside, that takes that all-in ROE to that sustainable 20%-plus level that I referenced earlier. I hope that's helpful color.

因此，我們認為這一切最終將為保險業務帶來非常有吸引力的營運率回報，我認為，重要的是，隨著時間的推移，槓桿率會降低。然後，再加上重要的資產管理經濟學，總 ROE 就會達到我之前提到的可持續的 20% 以上的水平。我希望這是有幫助的顏色。

Arnaud Giblat, BNP.

法國國家銀行的阿諾吉布拉特（Arnaud Giblat）。

So we've seen a large number or a certain number of large deals that would have been financed to the both syndicated loan markets for private debt in April. I think Karo is an example here. So I was wondering how the availability of bank debt is currently evolving as we're seeing spreads tighten once again. I'm asking the question from two angles really. So number one is what is the availability to do deals, the availability of debt and how that is evolving in April given the spread is tightening once again?

因此，我們看到 4 月有大量或一定數量的大型交易將透過兩個銀團貸款市場為私人債務提供融資。我認為 Karo 就是一個例子。因此，我想知道，當我們看到利差再次收緊時，銀行債務的可用性目前如何變化。我其實是從兩個角度來問這個問題。因此，首先要考慮的是，可供交易的金額、可供債務的金額如何，以及在利差再次收窄的情況下，四月份可供交易的金額和債務的金額將如何變化？

And second, also looking through the lens of KKR as a provider of private debt, is there an opportunity to take back market share from the banks here?

其次，從 KKR 作為私人債務提供者的角度來看，是否有機會從銀行手中奪回市場份額？

Great. Thanks, Arnaud. It's Rob. Why don't I start? Listen, I think when you saw very early April, you saw a brief dislocation where it was, for a small period of time, hard to go secure bank financing.

偉大的。謝謝，阿諾。我是羅布。我為什麼不開始呢？聽著，我認為在四月初的時候，你會看到一個短暫的混亂時期，在很短的一段時間內，很難獲得銀行融資。

I think we talk a lot about our Capital Markets business as a fee generator for KKR and a profitability generator. And of course, it has been. But the whole reason that business started was to really be able to support our portfolio companies in a differentiated way. And we saw that in Karo where we went out and arranged our own financing. As it relates to where we sit today, we see bank availability of capital.

我認為我們經常談論我們的資本市場業務，它是 KKR 的費用產生器和盈利產生器。當然，事實確實如此。但開展這項業務的全部原因是為了能夠以差異化的方式真正支持我們的投資組合公司。我們在 Karo 看到了這一點，我們出去安排了自己的融資。就我們目前的情況而言，我們看到銀行擁有充足的資本。

The leverage finance market is open, albeit I think it's -- in order to access it, spreads are a little bit higher for sure today than where they were. But it's open and available for new deals sitting here in early May. Private credit opportunity remains a robust one as well.

槓桿融資市場是開放的，儘管我認為——為了進入該市場，今天的利差肯定比以前高一點。但它已開放並可在五月初進行新的交易。私人信貸機會依然強勁。

And given the backup in spreads in the leveraged finance market, a little bit slower activity, of course, in the CLO formation market. We think that the spread opportunity in our private credit and direct lending business is one that's attractive as we head into Q2 here as well.

鑑於槓桿融資市場利差的擴大，CLO 形成市場的活動當然會稍微放緩。我們認為，隨著我們進入第二季度，我們的私人信貸和直接貸款業務的利差機會也很有吸引力。

Yeah. No. It's Scott. I think the capital is available to do deals. Depending on the transaction, I'd say that we're straightforward stories that high line of sight to syndicatability.

是的。不。我是史考特。我認為有足夠的資本來做交易。根據交易情況，我想說我們的故事很直白，對聯合經營的視線很高。

Those are going the leverage credit bank route. Those with maybe more of a story attached can go to private credit route. That capital is available. The key for us is those markets exist and function side by side. It presents an option for us as we think about the best way to go, depending on the transaction.

這些都是走槓桿信貸銀行路線。那些可能有更多故事的人可以選擇私人信貸途徑。該資本是可用的。對我們來說，關鍵是這些市場並存並發揮作用。當我們根據交易情況思考最佳解決方法時，它會為我們提供一個選項。

As you know, in the private credit space, that capital tends to be locked up and it's readily available. So it's more about the cost, as Rob said, and what's the best path based on the story and the underlying. I do think you're going to continue to see, as banks periodically pull back, if volatility increases. Then you'll see private credit take more share from leverage credit or the syndicated market, and then it will cut back the other way. This is an environment where we've got a little bit of both going on.

如你所知，在私人信貸領域，資本往往被鎖定並且隨時可用。因此，正如羅布所說，這更多的是關於成本，以及根據故事和基本情況的最佳路徑是什麼。我確實認為，如果波動性增加，你將繼續看到銀行定期撤資。然後你會看到私人信貸從槓桿信貸或銀團市場中奪取更多的份額，然後它會以另一種方式削減。在這種環境下，我們同時進行這兩種活動。

Brian Bedell, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Most have been asked and answered, but one -- maybe one on FRE margin, continues to be impressive growth in the FRE margin. So just a question for Rob. I asked this before in prior calls, but just to ask it again, do you see any kind of ceiling in that was basically the view of investing more, I guess if the fee revenue growth improves? And then should we be thinking about higher expenses around distribution costs for your capital partnership as that evolves as maybe being a potential headwind on margin?

大多數人都已經提出並回答了這個問題，但其中一個問題——也許是關於 FRE 利潤率的問題，FRE 利潤率繼續保持著令人印象深刻的成長。這只是問 Rob 的一個問題。我之前在電話會議中問過這個問題，但只是想再問一遍，您是否認為這其中存在任何上限，這基本上是投資更多的觀點，我想如果費用收入增長有所改善？那麼，我們是否應該考慮資本合作夥伴關係分銷成本方面的更高支出，因為這可能會對利潤率造成潛在的阻力？

Great. Thanks a lot, Brian. So a few different things as I try and address your question. Maybe just start on the expense side. We have talked about continuing to want to invest back into our business for growth.

偉大的。非常感謝，布萊恩。因此，當我嘗試回答您的問題時，我會談一些不同的事情。也許只是從費用方面開始。我們已經討論過繼續投資我們的業務以實現成長。

As an example, we've talked about placement fees and distribution costs. And from my seat, that is the best cost we have because it's got the clearest ROI attached to it. Now even with that said, what I've also talked about in the past as it relates to margin, so I think we can operate in a sustainable way at that mid-60% FRE margin. But the past number of quarters, as you know, we've been close to the high 60% level. And I don't think either is a cap for us.

作為例子，我們討論了安置費和分銷成本。從我的角度來看，這是我們擁有的最佳成本，因為它具有最清晰的投資報酬率。話雖如此，我過去也談到了與利潤率相關的問題，所以我認為我們可以在 60% 左右的 FRE 利潤率下以可持續的方式運作。但如你所知，過去幾個季度，我們的成長率一直接近 60% 的高水準。我認為這對我們來說都不是一個上限。

I know it's not a cap for us. Because if you go back to our business strategy, from our perspective, it's all about scaling things that we have already started. And if we're successful at executing on that business strategy, and as a leadership team, we've got a lot of confidence that we're going to be, then we're going to grow our revenue at a pace that meaningfully exceeds our head count growth and the operating complexity across the firm.

我知道這對我們來說不是一個上限。因為如果你回顧我們的商業策略，從我們的角度來看，這一切都是為了擴大我們已經開始的事情的規模。如果我們成功執行該業務策略，並且作為領導團隊，我們對此充滿信心，那麼我們的收入成長速度將遠遠超過員工人數的成長和整個公司的營運複雜性。

And so while FRE margin expansion or overall margin expansion isn't an input to our business strategy, it is a really nice output to our strategy if we get it right, and we think we will.

因此，雖然 FRE 利潤率擴大或整體利潤率擴大不是我們業務策略的投入，但如果我們做對了，它對我們的策略來說是一個非常好的輸出，我們認為我們會的。

Michael Cyprys, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的麥可‧賽普里斯 (Michael Cyprys)。

Just a question on tariffs. I think you had referenced about 10% of your AUM that has some sort of first order impact. It sounds like that's mostly at credit. Is that fair? Can you just elaborate it on how you see restrictive trade policy impacting the portfolio?

我只是想問一下關稅問題。我認為您提到過大約 10% 的 AUM 具有某種一級影響。聽起來這主要與信譽有關。這樣公平嗎？您能否詳細說明一下您認為限制性貿易政策對投資組合有何影響？

I think you also mentioned you're taking some mitigation steps. Maybe you can elaborate on the mitigation action steps you guys are taking. And then could you also speak to any sort of second or third order impacts that you're thinking about? How are you going about assessing that?

我想您也提到您正在採取一些緩解措施。也許你們可以詳細說明您正在採取的緩解行動步驟。然後您能否談談您正在考慮的任何二階或三階影響？您打算如何評估這一點？

Yeah. Thanks, Mike. Let me start. When I referenced the 90% number, that was a private equity number across our portfolio, where we're looking across our global PE business and feel like 90% of the outcomes on an AUM basis that there's no material exposure. And as you think about that other 10%, that doesn't include any mitigation strategies that are, of course, already well underway. And so we feel really well-positioned.

是的。謝謝，麥克。讓我開始吧。當我提到 90% 這個數字時，那是我們投資組合中的私募股權數字，我們縱觀我們的全球 PE 業務，感覺以 AUM 為基礎的 90% 的結果沒有重大風險。而當您考慮另外 10% 時，其中還不包括任何已經在順利實施的緩解策略。因此，我們感覺自己處於非常有利的位置。

Infrastructure, we feel equally well-positioned when we look at that portfolio. Much of what we do is contractual protections that insulate KKR returns or just no exposure at all. And then on the credit side of our business, actually, as we understand the tariffs today, we think there might be even less exposure than what we're seeing in our private equity portfolio today. And so we feel, as we look across our $600 billion-plus of AUM, really well-situated.

當我們審視基礎設施投資組合時，我們感覺自己同樣處於有利地位。我們所做的大部分工作是透過合約保護來保護 KKR 的回報，或者根本不承擔任何風險。然後，就我們業務的信貸方面而言，實際上，根據我們今天對關稅的了解，我們認為風險敞口可能比我們今天在私募股權投資組合中看到的風險敞口還要小。因此，當我們審視我們超過 6000 億美元的資產管理規模時，我們感覺情況確實十分良好。

It's not just not going to have our issues. And as you think about potential second or third order impacts and potential impacts across the economy, whether that's GDP or inflation or interest rates, of course, we're very attuned to that.

這不僅僅意味著不會再有我們的問題。當您考慮潛在的二階或三階影響以及對整個經濟的潛在影響時，無論是 GDP、通貨膨脹還是利率，我們當然都非常關注這一點。

We believe we're in a very fortunate position to have invested meaningfully behind a macro function, geopolitics function, public policy, all of those teams deeply embedded across our investment teams globally and really synced up in a way that we're trying to anticipate what could happen next and be in a position where we can really react to things either proactively or very quickly if things change from our base case.

我們相信，我們非常幸運，能夠在宏觀職能、地緣政治職能、公共政策等方面進行有意義的投資，所有這些團隊都深深植根於我們全球的投資團隊中，並真正同步進行，我們試圖預測接下來可能發生的事情，並且如果情況與我們的基本情況不同，我們可以主動或迅速地做出反應。

So there's a lot going on in the macro side. Again, we feel very well competitively well-positioned given our resources and the connectivity across our firm.

宏觀方面發生了很多事情。再一次，考慮到我們的資源和整個公司的連結性，我們感到自己處於非常有利的競爭地位。

Yeah. Mike, it's Scott. I'd say it's obviously not an accident. I mentioned before, we've learned a lot on COVID and 1.0 Trump. And so we've been focused on acquiring assets and companies that have like more durable demand drivers.

是的。麥克，我是史考特。我想說這顯然不是意外。我之前提到過，我們已經從 COVID 和 1.0 版川普身上學到了很多。因此，我們一直專注於收購具有更持久需求驅動力的資產和公司。

So one of the things that we've been looking at is do we think companies can hold margins in a high cost or higher inflation environment. And we've frankly been leaning into those parts of the global economy and away from those that the answer is not as good. And so as Rob said, I'm sure we're going to get surprised by some things.

因此，我們一直在關注的問題之一是，我們是否認為公司可以在高成本或高通膨環境中保持利潤率。坦白說，我們一直傾向於關注全球經濟的那些部分，而忽略了那些答案不太好的部分。正如羅布所說，我確信我們會對一些事情感到驚訝。

But as we look at it today, really where we are today and what Rob just walked through is the result of the last five-plus years of investing through that prism. Look if we have a broader consumer-led recession the United States or there's some other larger dislocation, then I'm sure you're going to have other work to be done.

但當我們今天來看時，我們今天所處的境況以及羅布剛剛經歷的一切，都是過去五年多來透過這種視角進行投資的結果。如果美國出現更大範圍的消費者主導的經濟衰退，或者出現其他更大規模的混亂，那麼我相信你還有其他工作要做。

We also think we have management teams that are well-equipped. And again, having gone through COVID with a large part of this portfolio, we've already had good practice as to how to get ready for a more dislocated environment. So we think we're well tested, but time will tell.

我們也認為我們擁有一支裝備精良的管理團隊。而且，由於我們投資組合中的大部分都經歷了新冠疫情，我們已經對如何為更混亂的環境做好準備有了很好的實踐。所以我們認為我們已經經過了充分的考驗，但時間會證明一切。

Kyle Voigt, KBW.

凱爾·沃伊特（Kyle Voigt），KBW。

Maybe just a blended follow-up question on insurance and capital markets. Rob, just to clarify your earlier comments, should investors move away from thinking about insurance earnings being at the 14% to 15% pretax ROE range over the long run and instead, simply think about an all-in-type 20%-plus target instead?

也許只是關於保險和資本市場的混合後續問題。羅布，只是想澄清一下你之前的評論，投資者是否應該不再考慮保險收益長期處於 14% 至 15% 的稅前 ROE 範圍，而是只考慮 20% 以上的綜合目標？

And secondly, in the prepared remarks, you reiterated the opportunity to substantially grow the Capital Markets fees that are tied to insurance versus the $50 million level in 2024. Can you just give us an update on the road map to get to the several hundred million level you noted and how you're thinking about a time frame to achieve that?

其次，在準備好的發言中，您重申了大幅增加與保險掛鉤的資本市場費用的機會，而 2024 年的水準為 5000 萬美元。您能否向我們介紹一下達到您提到的幾億級別的路線圖的最新情況，以及您如何考慮實現這一目標的時間框架？

Great. Thanks a lot, Kyle. Short answer is no as it relates to insurance operating earnings and moving away from that. And of course, how we go maximize profitability inside our insurance business and how we go operate on behalf of our annuity holders is a very important consideration. I think as we're trying to frame the insurance business at KKR, I think it's important to look holistically, which is really how we as a management team think about it.

偉大的。非常感謝，凱爾。簡短的回答是否定的，因為這與保險營業收入有關，並且與此無關。當然，我們如何在保險業務中實現盈利最大化以及如何代表年金持有人開展業務是一個非常重要的考慮因素。我認為，當我們試圖建立 KKR 的保險業務時，整體考慮非常重要，這實際上是我們作為管理團隊的想法。

And so that's insurance operating earnings. It is, importantly, the third-party capital fees from Ivy, our Capital Markets business in addition to, of course, our investment management agreement that exists between our asset management and our insurance business.

這就是保險營業收入。重要的是，除了我們的資產管理和保險業務之間存在的投資管理協議之外，還有來自 Ivy 的第三方資本費用、我們的資本市場業務。

And so I think both are very important. But holistically, as a management team, we do look at that all in ROE, and we thought it was important to share on this call because to be generating a high teens, approaching 20% all-in ROE.

所以我認為兩者都非常重要。但從整體來看，作為管理團隊，我們確實會從 ROE 的角度來看待這一切，我們認為在這次電話會議上分享這一點很重要，因為要產生高達十幾歲、接近 20% 的全 ROE。

At the same time, we are evolving our business model and really intentionally under-earning in the near term inside of the four walls of insurance, I think speaks to the opportunity that we have once we've got all elements of our business model working really well together.

同時，我們正在改進我們的商業模式，並在短期內有意降低保險業內部的盈利，我認為這說明了一旦我們的商業模式的所有要素真正協同運作起來，我們就擁有了機會。

As it relates to your second part of your question on the opportunity for Capital Markets fees, we've got a peer firm that's done a really awesome job building that part of the business into -- some that contributes a significant amount of revenue as we look at how our Capital Markets business is situated.

至於您問題的第二部分，即資本市場費用的機會，我們有一個同行公司，他們在將這部分業務打造成一項非常出色的工作——從我們資本市場業務的狀況來看，其中一些業務貢獻了相當可觀的收入。

The investments that we've made in structured products in private investment grade, the resources that we have on the ground in distribution, we feel really great about continuing to build out that business and to achieve very substantial revenue outcomes for our shareholders. If you look across all of 2024, we have roughly $50 million of fees in that part of our business. In Q1 of this year, that number was about $20 million. And so like most things here, Kyle, we're not in a rush.

我們對私人投資級結構化產品的投資，以及我們在分銷方面擁有的資源，讓我們對繼續拓展該業務並為股東實現非常可觀的收入感到非常高興。如果縱觀整個 2024 年，我們在該部分業務上收取的費用約為 5000 萬美元。今年第一季度，這個數字約為 2000 萬美元。所以就像這裡的大多數事情一樣，凱爾，我們並不著急。

We're very conscious of doing it in the right way and in a way that maximizes the long-term opportunity. And we continue to believe that generating hundreds of millions of revenue on the back of this type of opportunity is certainly well within achievability from our perspective.

我們非常清楚要以正確的方式做這件事，並最大限度地發揮長期機會。我們仍然相信，從我們的角度來看，利用這種機會創造數億美元的收入肯定是可以實現的。

Ben Budish, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的本‧布迪什 (Ben Budish)。

I wanted to ask about one more kind of forward-looking commentary item provided last quarter in terms of management fee growth. Rob, last quarter, you suggested that we should see some acceleration from the 14% growth in 2024. So just curious if that's still the case. And maybe as part of that, I know perhaps you can't say when the Americas fund might activate. But could you remind us what are the sort of constraints?

我想問一下上個季度在管理費成長方面提供的另一種前瞻性評論項目。羅布，上個季度，您預測我們應該會看到 2024 年 14% 的成長加速。所以只是好奇情況是否仍然如此。也許作為其中的一部分，我知道也許你無法說出美洲基金何時會啟動。但是您能提醒我們有哪些限制嗎？

Is it just dependent on making the first investment or the pace of deployment at the predecessor? What should we be looking for there?

是否僅取決於首次投資或前期部署的速度？我們應該在那裡尋找什麼？

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Ben. We continue to believe that management fees will accelerate from here off of this level. Keep in mind that much of the $31 billion of capital that we raised isn't showing up in management fees. We've got $64 billion of AUM that -- where the fees have not yet turned on with a weighted average management fee of roughly 100 basis points, so a lot of visibility around where our future growth is going to come from.

是的。謝謝你的提問，本。我們仍然相信，從現在起，管理費用將會加速成長。請記住，我們籌集的 310 億美元資金中有很大一部分並沒有出現在管理費中。我們的資產管理規模為 640 億美元，其中費用尚未開始計算，加權平均管理費約為 100 個基點，因此我們未來成長的來源具有很大的可預見性。

I can tell you that [NAX4] will be activated in Q2 of 2025, so in this current quarter we're in right now. And so it will be a partial benefit to the Q2 quarter. And we've got a lot of other, I think, momentum across our capital-raising channels that we've touched on through this discussion. So we continue to believe management fees will accelerate from here.

我可以告訴你，[NAX4] 將於 2025 年第二季啟動，所以我們現在正處於本季。因此這將對第二季產生部分好處。我認為，我們在本次討論中涉及的融資管道還有很多其他發展動能。因此，我們仍然相信管理費用將從現在開始加速成長。

As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to Craig Larson for closing comments.

由於沒有其他問題，我現在想將會議交給 Craig Larson 進行總結演講。

Zico, thank you for your help this morning, and thank you, everybody, for your attention. I know this has been a longer call during a very volatile environment. We appreciate your interest, and we look forward to giving everybody another broad update in 90 days. Thank you so much.

Zico，謝謝你今天早上的幫助，也謝謝大家的注意。我知道，在非常動盪的環境下，這是一個較長的通話。感謝您的關注，我們期待在 90 天後為大家提供另一次廣泛的更新。太感謝了。

Thank you. This concludes today's earnings conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的收益會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。