卡夫亨氏 (KHC) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Kraft Heinz Company first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference being recorded.

問候並歡迎參加卡夫亨氏公司 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Anne-Marie Megela, Head of Global Investor Relations.

現在我很高興介紹全球投資者關係主管 Anne-Marie Megela。

Thank you. And hello, everyone. Welcome to the Q&A session for our first-quarter 2025 business update. During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations for the future, including items related to our business plans and expectations, strategy, efforts and investments, and related timing and expected impacts. These statements are based on how we see things today, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please see the cautionary statement and risk factors contained in today's earnings release, which accompanies this call, as well as our most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more information regarding these risks and uncertainties.

謝謝。大家好。歡迎參加我們 2025 年第一季業務更新的問答環節。在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會對未來的預期做出前瞻性陳述，包括與我們的業務計劃和預期、策略、努力和投資以及相關時間和預期影響相關的項目。這些陳述基於我們今天對事物的看法，實際結果可能因風險和不確定性而存在重大差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱本次電話會議附帶的今天的收益報告中包含的警告聲明和風險因素，以及我們最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件。

Additionally, we may refer to non-GAAP financial measure which exclude certain items from our financial results reported in accordance with GAAP. Please refer to today's earnings release and the non-GAAP information available on our website at ir.kraftheinzcompany.com under News and Events, for a discussion of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP financial measures.

此外，我們可能會參考非公認會計準則財務指標，該指標從我們根據公認會計準則報告的財務結果中排除某些項目。請參閱今天的收益報告和我們網站 ir.kraftheinzcompany.com 上的“新聞和事件”欄目下提供的非 GAAP 信息，以了解我們的非 GAAP 財務指標以及與可比 GAAP 財務指標的對賬情況。

I will now hand it over to our Chief Executive Officer, Carlos Abrams-Rivera, for opening comments. Carlos, over to you.

現在我將把發言權交給我們的執行長卡洛斯·艾布拉姆斯·裡維拉 (Carlos Abrams-Rivera)，請他發表開場評論。卡洛斯，交給你了。

Thank you, Anne-Marie. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. At Kraft Heinz, we are proud to be a trusted partner in kitchens everywhere, providing comfort and connections particularly in these moments of uncertainty.

謝謝你，安妮瑪麗。感謝大家今天加入我們。在卡夫亨氏，我們很自豪能夠成為世界各地廚​​房值得信賴的合作夥伴，特別是在這些不確定的時刻提供安慰和聯繫。

Despite growing market pressure in the first quarter, we delivered top line results in line with our expectations, with strong cash flow performance and a healthy balance sheet. We are also encouraged by the progress we are making in improving brand security. While these advancements in the year reflect through the financial results, they do give me confidence that we're putting in place the right building blocks. Our commitment to making the necessary investments to deliver quality and value offerings to our consumers is unwavering. At the same time, we are closely monitoring market tension and have adjusted our guidance accordingly.

儘管第一季市場壓力不斷增大，但我們的營收業績仍符合預期，現金流表現強勁，資產負債表健康。我們在提高品牌安全性方面所取得的進展也令我們感到鼓舞。雖然今年的這些進步反映在財務表現中，但它們確實讓我相信我們正在建立正確的基礎。我們堅定不移地致力於進行必要的投資，為消費者提供優質、有價值的產品。同時，我們正密切關注市場緊張局勢，並相應調整我們的指導。

With that, I have Andre joining me, so let's open the call for Q&A.

現在，安德烈也加入進來，讓我們開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Great. Thanks so much. Carlos, you mentioned in the prepared remarks that the revised outlook provides the necessary flexibility to dial in on investments as deemed appropriate. And that said, this is not the first time, right, Kraft Heinz has sort of used this language around proposed investments. And so far, it's not proved enough, although admittedly in a very dynamic consumer environment. Many industry players I think have taken the approach of kind of like increasing investments on what seems to be more of an incremental basis to see how the consumer reacts, almost like a sort of a test-and-learn approach. The magnitude of today's guidance is larger than previous ones. But I'm still getting all the questions from investors, I guess, as to whether this is more of the same sort of approach or if you see it as more comprehensive in some way. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。卡洛斯，您在準備好的發言中提到，修訂後的展望提供了必要的靈活性，以便根據需要進行投資。話雖如此，這並不是卡夫亨氏第一次在擬議投資中使用這種語言。到目前為止，儘管不可否認的是，在非常動態的消費環境中，這一點還沒有得到充分證明。我認為許多行業參與者都採取了類似增加投資的方式，這種方式似乎更具漸進性，以觀察消費者的反應，幾乎就像一種測試和學習的方法。今天的指導幅度比以前的更大。但我想，我仍然會收到來自投資者的各種問題，例如這是否是同一種方法，或者您是否認為它在某種程度上更為全面。非常感謝。

Good morning, Andrew. Thanks for your question. First, let me just say, we are continuing to invest in the business despite what we are seeing in terms of the macroeconomic uncertainty. Frankly, because the company decided that we have. And I think in moments like this, company can be sometimes overly cautious on defenses or play offense. We are choosing to play offense with discipline. So we're going to expect prioritizing investments in marketing, R&D, and technology.

早安，安德魯。謝謝你的提問。首先，我只想說，儘管我們看到宏觀經濟的不確定性，但我們仍將繼續對業務進行投資。坦白說，因為公司決定我們有。我認為在這樣的時刻，公司有時會在防守或進攻上過於謹慎。我們選擇以紀律的方式進攻。因此，我們將優先考慮對行銷、研發和技術的投資。

And the way we're doing that, Andrew, we focus on increasing returns of our marketing dollars by shifting more towards a consumer-facing marketing. We're also make sure we're optimizing the allocation across the brands and media types so that, in fact, we make sure we have the best ROI, with an improved quality of the messaging at the same time.

安德魯，我們這樣做的方式是，透過更多地轉向面向消費者的行銷，專注於提高行銷資金的回報。我們也確保優化跨品牌和媒體類型的分配，以便確保我們擁有最佳的投資報酬率，同時提高訊息傳遞的品質。

I mentioned investing in R&D. We are going to continue to invest behind innovation pipeline. We are making sure we are closing the gap to our investment levels that it is 1% of net sales. And I mentioned technology. We are going to continue to invest in our technology as well because that actually has helped us in terms of driving the efficiencies in the business by investing in things like automation and enhanced digital tools.

我提到了對研發的投資。我們將繼續投資創新管道。我們正在確保縮小與投資水準的差距，即淨銷售額的 1%。我提到了技術。我們也將繼續投資我們的技術，因為透過投資自動化和增強數位工具，技術實際上幫助我們提高了業務效率。

I think you also talked to why is this different, what's different now versus in the past. And I'll tell you, one of the important parts of what is different is the fact that we're also investing through the brand growth system. And if you recall, the brand growth system is our repeatable global model for understanding how we see opportunities within our brands and how do we make sure we drive superiority on those brands through both type products and packaging and making sure that every communication has the right brand resonance value equations and on the execution.

我想您也談到了為什麼會有所不同，現在與過去有什麼不同。我告訴你，其中一個重要區別是我們也透過品牌成長系統進行投資。如果你還記得的話，品牌成長系統是我們可重複的全球模型，用於了解我們如何看待品牌內部的機遇，以及如何確保透過產品類型和包裝推動這些品牌的優勢，並確保每一次溝通都有正確的品牌共鳴價值方程式和執行力。

So it's not just what we are spending or how we are spending. And we mentioned in the past that we have done this in about 10%, one of our brands in 2024 (inaudible) to pilot. That is, in fact, now being scaled up to 40% of our business by the end of this year.

因此，這不僅僅是我們花多少錢或如何花的問題。我們過去曾提到過，我們已經在大約 10% 的品牌中實施了這項舉措，並計劃在 2024 年（聽不清楚）進行試點。事實上，到今年年底，這一比例將上升至我們業務的 40%。

So that idea of us having more confidence in investing because now we have proven that brand growth system help us find the right opportunities and allows us to make sure we take the right steps in order to fuel the investments I think is part of why we are going to be playing offense with discipline. So you'll see us actually the step up our investments in marketing and also to make sure that as we renovate our products, we are supporting it with the right focus on the consumer communication.

因此，我們對投資更有信心，因為現在我們已經證明品牌成長系統可以幫助我們找到正確的機會，並使我們能夠確保採取正確的步驟來推動投資，我認為這也是我們要有紀律地進攻的原因之一。因此，您會看到我們實際上加大了對行銷的投資，同時也確保我們在更新產品時能夠以正確的方式專注於消費者溝通來提供支援。

So we invested behind the BGS. We make sure we have the great products, packaging quality. And then we make sure we have the right communications to support it and drive that forward. It's something that helped us work with our Philadelphia brand in 2024. It helped us in our Heinz UK business in the last year. And now, we are going to be seeing that across all of our brands towards 2025 here in the U.S.

因此我們投資了 BGS。我們確保我們擁有優質的產品和包裝品質。然後我們確保我們有正確的溝通來支持它並推動它向前發展。這有助於我們在 2024 年與費城品牌合作。它對我們去年在英國的亨氏業務有很大幫助。現在，到 2025 年，我們將在美國所有品牌中看到這種情況。

Good morning, Andrew. Just to add to Carlos, remember that in our prior guidance, we already had contemplated a step-up in price investments and just roughly speaking to the extent of 100 bps on the top line. So it was a relevant investment and concentrated on those categories we have previously described.

早安，安德魯。補充一下卡洛斯，請記住，在我們之前的指導中，我們已經考慮過提高價格投資，粗略地說，最高價格將提高 100 個基點。因此，這是一項相關的投資，並且集中在我們之前描述過的那些類別。

And we also had in the prior guidance already contemplated a double-digit increase in media. So we were still retaining our marketing percentage on revenue of 4.5% in the prior guidance. And with that, by reallocating expenses within the marketing bucket, we could free up double-digit increase in media.

我們在先前的指導中也已經考慮到了媒體的兩位數成長。因此，我們仍然按照先前的指導將行銷收入比例保持在 4.5%。透過重新分配行銷費用，我們可以釋放媒體的兩位數成長。

Now in this new guidance, we have opened the room to further accelerate our marketing investments. Remember that in our long-term algorithm, we want to be -- approximately, that's 5%. We had at the midpoint of guidance around 4.8% of market, so a 30 bps step-up. Still, this December, we might flip it a little bit up or down depending how the dynamics happen throughout the year including final impact on tariffs. But we want to accelerate the step-up to reach the 5%.

現在，在這項新指導方針下，我們為進一步加快行銷投資提供了空間。請記住，在我們的長期演算法中，我們希望達到大約 5% 的目標。我們的指導中點約為 4.8% 的市場份額，因此上漲了 30 個基點。不過，今年 12 月，我們可能會稍微上調或下調該價格，具體取決於全年的動態情況，包括對關稅的最終影響。但我們希望加速提升，達到5%的目標。

And we also had in the guidance some impact in COGS linkage to product renovation. As Carlos said, as we continue to deploy the brand growth system, we are seeing opportunities not only to improve quality of messaging and media pressure, but also to renovate the products and ensure stronger superiority.

而我們在指導中也對 COGS 與產品更新之間的連結產生了一些影響。正如卡洛斯所說，隨著我們繼續部署品牌成長系統，我們不僅看到了提高訊息傳遞品質和媒體壓力的機會，而且還看到了革新產品和確保更強大優勢的機會。

Great. Thank you, both.

偉大的。謝謝你們兩位。

Yasmine Deswandhy, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Yasmine Deswandhy。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for the question. So I kind of wanted to dig in a little bit on North America and the organic sales guidance update for this year. So just for 2Q specifically, there's a few items here to consider. You talked about the Easter timing shift and then there's a plant closure (inaudible). But there are also impacts last year on multiples from the consumer part. And then you had the Capri Sun reformulation impacting consumption. So can you help size the impact, if any, to the second quarter? And if there's anything else that we should consider that will drive a gap between North America shipments versus consumption?

大家早安，謝謝你的提問。所以我想深入了解北美和今年的有機銷售指導更新。因此，僅針對第二季度，這裡有幾點需要考慮。你談到復活節時間調整，然後工廠關閉（聽不清楚）。但去年消費者部分的倍數也受到了影響。然後 Capri Sun 的重新配方影響了消費。那麼，您能否幫助評估一下其對第二季的影響（如果有的話）？還有什麼其他因素值得我們考慮，從而導致北美出貨量與消費量之間的差距嗎？

Sure. Good morning. Thanks for the question. Look, we expect second quarter top line to be better than the first quarter top line. The effect of Easter, as I have said before, is approximately 90 bps, 100 bps. So that will be a tailwind in the second quarter.

當然。早安.謝謝你的提問。看起來，我們預計第二季的營收將優於第一季的營收。我之前說過，復活節的影響大約是90個基點、100個基點。因此這將成為第二季的順風。

In addition to that, we had emerging markets (inaudible) we have emerging markets further accelerating from where we were in Q1. And aside from Easter, we're going to see improvement in the (inaudible) platforms. So cream cheese and Ore-Ida, for example, they declined in Q1, and this was totally expected because we are lapping competitors with out-of-stock issues last year. But now, we restored growth. And you're going to see growth in those two categories in the quarter.

除此之外，我們還有新興市場（聽不清楚），新興市場的發展速度比第一季進一步加快。除了復活節之外，我們還將看到（聽不清楚）平台的改進。例如，奶油乳酪和 Ore-Ida 的銷量在第一季出現下滑，這是完全可以預料到的，因為去年我們的競爭對手就遭遇了缺貨問題。但現在，我們恢復了成長。您將在本季度看到這兩個類別的成長。

And your point, we will see some improvement in Lunchables, still not the levels that we believe we can achieve, as the newer innovations hits the market in the second quarter. But we'll see Lunchables improving, particularly, after mid-May and June because that's when we really start to have fully lapped the consumer reports from last year.

正如您所說，隨著新產品在第二季度進入市場，我們將看到 Lunchables 有所改進，但仍未達到我們認為能夠達到的水平。但我們會看到 Lunchables 有所改善，特別是在五月中旬和六月之後，因為那時我們才真正開始全面了解去年的消費者報告。

On the Muscatine, on the factory, we are lapping that as we head into the second quarter. But taking to mind that the industry (inaudible) has gone down quite a lot this year. So we are not going to see certainly a growth in away-from-home in the second quarter. But beyond that, you will see they accelerate platforms, sauces, cream cheese, meals, and snacking with a better performance in comparison to Q1.

在進入第二季之際，我們在馬斯卡廷、在工廠裡正在進行這項工作。但考慮到今年該行業（聽不清楚）已經下滑了不少。因此，我們在第二季度肯定不會看到客場數量的成長。但除此之外，你會看到他們加速了平台、醬料、奶油乳酪、餐點和零食的銷售，與第一季相比表現更好。

Okay. Great. Thank you. That's really helpful. And a quick follow-up to that. Just looking into the second half of the year, obviously, understanding that 2Q you'll see some nice improvement on volumes given the one-time items that you just mentioned. Your organic sales cut was basically all volumes and the pricing contribution was left unchanged. Do you see a need for North America volume to inflect positively in the second half in order to hit your guide? Or do you expect growth in international, particularly in emerging markets, to be enough to hit your guidance for the year?

好的。偉大的。謝謝。這真的很有幫助。並對此進行快速跟進。只看下半年，顯然，考慮到您剛才提到的一次性項目，您會看到第二季度銷量有所改善。您的有機銷售削減基本上是所有銷售量，而定價貢獻保持不變。您是否認為下半年北美銷售需要出現正面改變才能達到您的期望？或者您是否預期國際市場（尤其是新興市場）的成長足以實現您今年的預期？

No, we don't. In fact, in the midpoint of our guidance, the total company does not get to positive in any quarters.

不，我們不知道。事實上，在我們預期的中期，整個公司在任何季度都沒有正成長。

Okay. Great.

好的。偉大的。

(inaudible) Okay?

（聽不清楚） 好嗎？

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們。

Tom Palmer, Citi.

花旗銀行的湯姆·帕爾默。

Morning and thanks for the question. I wanted to ask on the COGS inflation on the revised outlook. Just any breakdown of how much of that is related to tariffs versus maybe other drivers of that increase? And then just the timing of when we really start to see that step-up? Thank you.

早安，感謝您的提問。我想詢問一下修訂後的前景中的 COGS 通膨情況。能否詳細分析其中有多少與關稅有關，或有多少是其他因素導致的成長？那麼我們什麼時候才能真正開始看到這種進步呢？謝謝。

So in our outlook, we had inflation at 3%. So before any tariffs, our guidance has step-up to 5% of COGS, particularly in some commodities like coffee and meats, we saw a big increase in comparison to the rest of the last time we met. So the base inflation was already up to 5%. And now with the tariff impact, I mean, obviously, a lot of uncertainty still on that. But we do estimate we thought we know so far an impact in 2025 of 150 to 200 bps on the COGS. Timing-wise, look, we don't know for sure. But we are assuming that it's a bit concentrated in the second half. Maybe there'll be some impact in the second quarter. We built some inventory where possible in certain items as we anticipate that to happen. So that gives a little relief of amounts needed to in some of the items. But the impact should be mostly concentrated in the second half.

因此，我們預期通膨率為 3%。因此，在徵收任何關稅之前，我們的指導價格已上升至 5%，特別是對於咖啡和肉類等一些商品，與上次開會時的其他商品相比，我們看到了大幅增長。因此基準通膨率已經達到5%。現在，考慮到關稅的影響，顯然，這方面仍然存在許多不確定性。但我們確實估計，我們認為到目前為止我們知道 2025 年對 COGS 的影響將達到 150 到 200 個基點。從時間上看，我們還不確定。但我們預計下半年的趨勢會更加集中。也許第二季會產生一些影響。由於我們預計會發生這種情況，因此我們在可能的情況下針對某些商品建立了一些庫存。這樣可以稍微減輕一些某些物品所需的金額。但影響力應該主要集中在下半年。

Perfect. Thank you for that. And I noticed that there wasn't a change in kind of that pricing outlook, as Yasmine just noted. But it sounds like there's price investment in some areas and then there is incremental pricing in other areas? Maybe just any detail you can provide there?

完美的。謝謝你。我注意到定價前景並沒有改變，正如 Yasmine 剛才指出的那樣。但聽起來有些領域是價格投資，其他領域是增量定價？也許您能提供一些詳細資訊嗎？

In the mid-point of the new guidance, we don't have further investments in price in addition to the approximately 100 bps we already had contemplated in the initial outlook. So the incremental investments, as I said, is mostly on marketing, particularly, media, on product renovation. And there is some sampling investments because remember that as we renovated products, including the ones that we have renovated last year like Capri Sun, we really need to step up the trial curve. So we are stepping up sampling investments ahead into the summer.

在新指引的中期，除了我們在初步展望中已經考慮的約 100 個基點之外，我們沒有在價格方面進行進一步的投資。因此，正如我所說，增量投資主要用於行銷，特別是媒體和產品創新。還有一些樣品投資，因為記住，當我們翻新產品時，包括我們去年翻新的產品，如 Capri Sun，我們確實需要加強試用曲線。因此，我們將在夏季前加緊進行抽樣投資。

Perfect. Thank you for the details.

完美的。感謝您提供詳細資訊。

David Palmer, Evercore ISI.

大衛·帕爾默（David Palmer），Evercore ISI。

Thanks. A couple of questions. You updated your inflation guidance, and thanks for your commentary around the tariffs being incorporating in that. I'm wondering how you're thinking about pricing offsets to that. And when it gets to a certain level of input inflation and your willingness to price that away, are there levels where you have to be cognizant of rising price elasticity, perhaps, over a few percent, for example, where you're more aware of any sort of list pricing and you have to start moving towards other types of adjustments or offsets?

謝謝。有幾個問題。您更新了通膨指導，感謝您對其中納入的關稅的評論。我想知道您如何考慮對此進行定價補償。當投入通膨達到一定水平，而您願意將其定價時，是否存在一些水平，在這個水平上您必須意識到價格彈性的上升，也許超過幾個百分點，例如，您更加了解任何類型的定價，並且您必須開始轉向其他類型的調整或抵消？

And then separately, Andre, I know you've been very active in thinking about promotional activity and returns on that promotional activity. When we look at our data, it looks like Kraft Heinz has been a little bit different than some of the other larger food companies and that it's well below 2019 levels in terms of its volume on promotion where some many, many years now, most other companies look like they're at those levels already and continuing to rise. I'm wondering if you kind of recognize that juxtaposition. And how you think about the promotion strategy going forward, is that something that you're noticing as well? Thank you.

另外，安德烈，我知道您一直非常積極地考慮促銷活動以及促銷活動的回報。當我們查看數據時，我們發現卡夫亨氏與其他一些大型食品公司略有不同，其促銷量遠低於 2019 年的水平，而許多年來，大多數其他公司看起來已經處於這一水平，並且還在繼續上升。我想知道您是否認識到這種並置。您對未來的推廣策略有何看法？您是否也注意到了這一點？謝謝。

Let me start with the second part. It's Carlos. And then have Andre comment a little bit on the first part of your questions. First of all, what you are seeing is the fact that it follows our strategy. I mentioned earlier that we're going to continue to make investments and play offense with discipline. I think for us, it's the opportunity to make sure that what we are investing, we are doing with this in a way that is thoughtful about the return on investment and that we are building something that support our strategy and allows us to grow, not only in the short term, but really in the medium to long term.

讓我從第二部分開始。是卡洛斯。然後讓安德烈對你問題的第一部分稍微評論一下。首先，您所看到的是它遵循了我們的策略。我之前提到過，我們將繼續進行投資，並嚴格遵守紀律。我認為對我們來說，這是一個機會，可以確保我們所投資的東西，我們會以深思熟慮的方式進行投資，考慮投資回報，並且我們正在建立一些東西來支持我們的策略，並讓我們不僅在短期內，而且在中長期內都能成長。

So why we're investing in pricing for our promotional events is because we believe that actually creates the kind of base volume opportunities as we go post that particular event. So you'll see us continue to invest in times of the year the consumer needs as, whether that is now Memorial Day, whether it's July 4th, whether it's back-to-school. We're just going to do it in a disciplined way to make sure that, again, it's supporting the strategy that we have and not just chase a short-term volume that actually doesn't essentially all you do is kind of rent volume for a short period of time.

因此，我們為什麼要為促銷活動投資定價，是因為我們相信，這實際上會在特定活動結束後創造一定數量的基礎機會。因此，你會看到我們繼續在消費者需要的時間進行投資，無論是陣亡將士紀念日，還是 7 月 4 日，還是返校節。我們會以嚴謹的方式去做，以確保它支持我們的策略，而不僅僅是追求短期數量，實際上你所做的並不只是在短時間內獲得一定數量的租金。

The other piece that is important to note is that when we're making those investments, we're also doing it in concert with our brand growth systems investments so that when we are going for a back-to-school time period and we have now a renovated new Lunchables, we have a renovated new Capri Sun, that's a moment for us to know we stimulate the demand, but also making sure that the consumers get to try the best product that we have ever made on those categories.

另一點值得注意的是，當我們進行這些投資時，我們也會與我們的品牌成長系統投資同步進行，這樣當我們迎來返校季時，我們就會推出全新的 Lunchables 和 Capri Sun，這時我們就知道我們刺激了需求，同時也確保消費者能夠品嚐到我們在這些類別中生產過的最好的產品。

So I think it's that combination that is kind of guiding our principles versus kind of how competitors are playing at this particular time. There are some different strategy. We want to make sure that we're doing things smartly because our focus is continuing to drive profitable growth for the future. Andre, do you want to comment on the first part?

所以我認為，這種結合在某種程度上指導了我們的原則，而不是競爭對手在特定時期的表現。有一些不同的策略。我們希望確保我們所做的事情是明智的，因為我們的重點是繼續推動未來的獲利成長。安德烈，你想對第一部分發表評論嗎？

Yes. Hi Dave. On the promo side, Carlos said, we'll continue to be disciplined and really seeking those promotions with good returns. You will see a step-up in promotional activity during the key windows, particularly now in summer. So you'll see that number stepping up as part of our initial guidance. Again, we have approximately 100 bps of incremental price investments in the U.S.

是的。你好，戴夫。在促銷方面，卡洛斯表示，我們將持續嚴守紀律，真正尋求那些能帶來良好回報的促銷活動。您會看到在關鍵時段促銷活動增加，尤其是現在的夏季。因此，您會看到這個數字隨著我們初步指導的實施而上升。再次，我們在美國有大約 100 個基點的增量價格投資。

In regards to pricing, the tariffs, look, we are trying to do everything we possibly can to minimize the amount of price necessary. So even things like the delay, we have anticipated some purchases, we are looking at alternative sourcing. There is opportunity for, in some cases, reformulation, which takes a little bit longer. There are opportunities on the mix side. There are certain SKUs within (inaudible) less impacted than others when it comes with tariffs. So all of that is at play. We are stepping up productivity in the year. We started the year expecting 3.5% of COGS. Now, we are expecting a little more than that. So we are taking all the possible levers. But pricing might be necessary. But again, I think there is work in progress.

關於定價、關稅，我們正在盡一切可能將必要的價格降至最低。因此，即使出現延遲等情況，我們也預期會進行一些採購，我們正在尋找替代採購來源。在某些情況下，有機會進行重新制定，但這需要更長的時間。混合方面存在機會。當涉及關稅時，（聽不清楚）中的某些 SKU 受到的影響比其他 SKU 要小。所以所有這些都在發揮作用。我們今年正在提高生產力。我們年初預計的銷貨成本為 3.5%。現在，我們期望的不僅僅是這些。因此，我們正在採取一切可能的手段。但定價可能是必要的。但我再次認為這項工作正在進行中。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯凱裡。

Hi everyone. I wanted to ask a question about gross margin, then just a follow-up elsewhere. From a gross margin perspective, specifically the Q2 weakness that you're expecting and in the context of just how this typically works, is the primary driver of Q2 gross margin weakness coffee inflation? And I guess I asked that question in the context of, historically, this is really a pass-through category where pricing comes through to offset the inflation, understanding there's always going to be quarter-to-quarter volatility. But are you seeing perhaps less ability to pass through the coffee inflation just given your overall coffee inflation backdrop?

大家好。我想問一個關於毛利率的問題，然後再跟進其他問題。從毛利率的角度來看，特別是您預期的第二季毛利率疲軟，以及在通常情況下，第二季毛利率疲軟的主要原因是咖啡通膨嗎？我想我是在這樣的背景下提出這個問題的：從歷史上看，這實際上是一個傳導類別，透過定價來抵消通貨膨脹，並且理解總是存在季度間波動。但是，考慮到整體咖啡通膨的背景，您是否認為經受咖啡通膨考驗的能力可能會減弱？

And then just secondly, are there any areas within your portfolio or broader portfolio where you're seeing more bright spots from a marketshare perspective? Because I think similar to last quarter, where we continue to struggle is the categories of clearly softened, but market share performance has come under more pressure. And so what are those things that you've been doing over the past few months, maybe specifically, where you're saying, okay, that specific strategy is working to kind of right (inaudible) here? Because it's been a bit harder to see here in the data. So thanks for those two items.

其次，從市場佔有率的角度來看，您的投資組合或更廣泛的投資組合中是否有哪些領域讓您看到了更多亮點？因為我認為與上一季類似，我們繼續努力的地方是明顯疲軟的類別，但市佔率表現面臨更大的壓力。那麼，過去幾個月您一直在做哪些事情，具體來說，您說這些具體的策略是否起到了作用（聽不清楚）？因為從數據上看這個問題有點困難。非常感謝這兩件物品。

Sure. Thanks for the question. I will start with the Q2 margins. So basically, we do expect the pressure on the gross margin in the second quarter. And there are a few different items affecting the margin. The first one is, as I just had in the prior question, we do expect a step-up in the promotional activity as we start the shipment for the summer season. So we will see a lower price in the P&L.

當然。謝謝你的提問。我將從第二季的利潤開始。所以基本上，我們確實預計第二季毛利率將面臨壓力。有幾個不同的因素影響利潤。第一個問題是，正如我剛才在上一個問題中提到的那樣，隨著夏季發貨的開始，我們確實預計促銷活動會有所加強。因此我們將在損益表中看到更低的價格。

The second, we are facing impact of some hedge losses in the second quarter. They are quite large. And the good thing is that once they roll off heading into Q3, we'll start to see some of those commodities that's starting to come down, like dairy, start to flow through the P&L.

第二，我們在第二季面臨一些對沖損失的影響。它們相當大。好消息是，一旦它們進入第三季度，我們就會開始看到一些價格開始下降的商品，例如乳製品，開始流入損益表。

Then third, to your point, there are some increases in certain commodities in Q2. And the way we see right now, some of them are going to reach the peak in Q2 and that (inaudible) start to go backwards or decelerate, at least, as we head into the third quarter.

第三，正如您所說，第二季度某些商​​品的價格有所上漲。從我們現在看到的情況來看，其中一些將在第二季度達到頂峰，並且（聽不清楚）至少在進入第三季時開始倒退或減速。

So those three elements are the key contributors for the gross margin pressure that we are seeing. There is a little bit as well of the product renovations that we are starting to step-up. So as a result of that, plus we're starting to step-up investment in marketing, we do expect that operating income should decline double-digits in the second quarter.

因此，這三個因素是我們看到毛利率壓力的關鍵因素。我們也正在開始加強一些產品革新。因此，由於這個原因，再加上我們開始增加對行銷的投資，我們預計第二季的營業收入將下降兩位數。

In regards to the bright spots, I'll hand over to Andre.

關於亮點，我將交給安德烈。

I think if you look at our year-to-date -- latest five weeks versus the year-to-date, you'll see us making progress in all of our accelerate businesses, whether (inaudible) renovation, whether it is ready-to-eat meals, whether it's snacking. So all those things are progressing. I think in Q1, obviously, we had the impact of Easter. So I think as we are seeing other data with several weeks of the (inaudible), you are going to continue to see that improvement.

我想，如果你看看我們今年迄今為止的表現——最近五週與今年迄今為止的表現相比，你會看到我們在所有加速業務中都取得了進展，無論是（聽不清）翻新，無論是即食食品，還是零食。所以所有這些事情都在進展中。我認為在第一季度，我們顯然受到了復活節的影響。因此我認為，正如我們看到的幾週的其他數據（聽不清楚）一樣，你將繼續看到這種改善。

And I think, for example, in a business like our Philadelphia Cream Cheese, which as we now kind of passed the Q1 lapping of the private label not have been on the business in the category last year, you'll see that continue to drive growth, whether you see that in our desserts business that continue to drive growth after reformulations and focusing on better-for-you products in that category.

我認為，例如，在像我們的費城奶油乳酪這樣的業務中，我們現在已經通過了自有品牌的第一季度重疊，而去年我們在該類別的業務中沒有出現過這種重疊，你會看到它繼續推動增長，無論你是否看到我們的甜點業務在重新配製並專注於該類別中對你更有利的產品後繼續推動增長。

So you will see that many of the investments we're making will continue to play off as we go through the year. And I mentioned that in the opening statement which is a lot of the great things that we are seeing in terms of the building blocks are not yet all reflected in the data. But those are things that you'll see us as we continue to progress throughout the year.

因此，你會發現，我們所做的許多投資將在今年繼續發揮作用。我在開場白中提到，我們在構建模組方面看到的許多偉大的事情尚未全部反映在數據中。但隨著我們全年不斷取得進展，您就會看到這些事情。

I'm also, frankly, very encouraged by the fact that some of the big innovations we have done have continued to now drive growth. So a business like our (inaudible) strategy that we didn't have two years ago, we grew double digits last year, and we are growing double-digits again this year. So that also give me confidence in the fact that as we are building innovation, we're doing it with the right insight with consumers to drive growth that is sustainable and profitable for the long term. Thanks for your question.

坦白說，我們也對我們的一些重大創新繼續推動成長感到非常鼓舞。因此，像我們兩年前沒有的（聽不清楚）策略這樣的業務，去年我們實現了兩位數的成長，今年我們再次實現了兩位數的成長。因此，這也讓我相信，我們在進行創新時，會以對消費者的正確洞察來推動永續、長期獲利的成長。謝謝你的提問。

Operator, we have time for one more question.

接線員，我們還有時間再回答一個問題。

[Megan Clapp], Morgan Stanley.

[Megan Clapp]，摩根士丹利。

Good morning. This is [Alexia], on for Megan. In the prepared remarks, you guys mentioned the wider operating income guide partly reflects a change in policy landscape. Should we be thinking about that from a top line perspective or is that related to costs? Just any incremental color you could give there would be great. Thanks.

早安.我是 [Alexia]，代表 Megan 發言。在準備好的評論中，你們提到更廣泛的營業收入指南部分反映了政策格局的變化。我們應該從收入角度來考慮這個問題嗎？還是這跟成本有關？只要您提供任何增量顏色即可。謝謝。

Thanks for the question. Look, there are, as you know, a lot of things being discussed and under consideration that might have implication on the business, positive or negative. So part of the reason why we have this wider range is to contemplate a whole different set of scenarios that can come into play.

謝謝你的提問。你看，正如你所知，很多事情正在被討論和考慮，這些事情可能會對業務產生積極或消極的影響。因此，我們之所以選擇更廣泛的範圍，部分原因是為了考慮可能出現的一系列完全不同的情況。

So we're trying to just provide the flexibility, knowing that there is a number of things that are still volatile. But in that guidance, you'll see that we are acknowledging some of those things, we are preparing for those things, and also at the same time, making sure that we have the right flexibility to invest back into business in order to drive the strategy that we have and then fuel the opportunities that we are seeing with our brand growth system to (inaudible) back in our brands. So that's all reflected in the way we're kind of shaping the year ahead.

因此，我們試圖提供靈活性，因為我們知道仍有許多事情是不穩定的。但在該指南中，您會看到我們承認其中的一些事情，我們正在為這些事情做準備，同時，我們也確保我們有適當的靈活性來重新投資於業務，以推動我們現有的策略，然後透過我們的品牌成長系統為我們看到的機會提供動力（聽不清楚）回到我們的品牌中。這一切都反映在我們對未來一年的規劃方式。

Thank you, Alexia.

謝謝你，亞歷克西亞。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us. Operator, that concludes our Q&A session.

謝謝大家的參與。接線員，我們的問答環節到此結束。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a great day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有個愉快的一天。