卡夫亨氏 (KHC) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to The Kraft Heinz Company Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised today's conference may be recorded. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎來到卡夫亨氏公司第四季度業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意今天的會議可能會被錄製。 （操作員說明）

I'd now like to hand the conference over to Chris Jakubik, Head of Global Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給全球投資者關係主管 Chris Jakubik。請繼續。

Thank you, and hello, everyone. This is Chris Jakubik, Head of Global Investor Relations at The Kraft Heinz Company, and welcome to our Q&A session for our fourth quarter 2021 business update.

謝謝大家，大家好。我是卡夫亨氏公司全球投資者關係主管 Chris Jakubik，歡迎來到我們的問答環節，了解我們 2021 年第四季度的業務更新。

During our remarks today, we will make some forward-looking statements that are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, and these are discussed in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC. We will also discuss some non-GAAP financial measures today during the call, and these non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with GAAP results. And you can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and the supplemental materials posted on ir.kraftheinzcompany.com.

在我們今天的講話中，我們將根據我們今天的看法做出一些前瞻性陳述。由於風險和不確定性，實際結果可能會有所不同，這些在我們的收益發布和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了討論。今天，我們還將在電話會議期間討論一些非 GAAP 財務指標，這些非 GAAP 財務指標不應被視為替代，而應與 GAAP 結果一起閱讀。您可以在我們的收益發布和 ir.kraftheinzcompany.com 上發布的補充材料中找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的對賬。

With that, let's take your questions.

有了這個，讓我們來回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

Two questions for me. The first one for Miguel. Just given how fluid the environment is using, I guess, Paulo's words and just the macro pressures that we're seeing in the market, how has that impacted your ability to execute? And are you not executing as an organization, I guess, up to or as well as you would like, just given all the pressure?

我有兩個問題。米格爾的第一個。考慮到環境的流動性，我猜，保羅的話以及我們在市場上看到的宏觀壓力，這對你的執行能力有何影響？我猜，在承受所有壓力的情況下，你作為一個組織的執行力是否達到或如你所願？

Bryan, thanks for the question. I mean the macro pressures that you are mentioning, they've been here for a while now. And at the beginning, it was hard to adapt. But I think that this is the new normal, and we are absolutely embracing the change of the macro pressures every day. I'm personally very confident about the path forward. First, because of our people. We have today a great team, very engaged and with a low turnover, which is very different from 2.5 years ago.

布萊恩，謝謝你的問題。我的意思是你提到的宏觀壓力，它們已經存在一段時間了。而且一開始很難適應。但我認為這是新常態，我們每天都在擁抱宏觀壓力的變化。我個人對前進的道路非常有信心。首先，因為我們的人民。我們今天擁有一支很棒的團隊，非常投入，而且流動率很低，這與 2.5 年前大不相同。

Our business is growing, and we've been relatively strong when we talk about gross margins despite the inflation that we are seeing, which in a way has enabled us to keep investing in our brands. And our cash flow and balance sheet is almost -- is much, much stronger than 2 years ago.

我們的業務正在增長，儘管我們看到了通貨膨脹，但當我們談論毛利率時，我們一直相對強勁，這在某種程度上使我們能夠繼續投資於我們的品牌。我們的現金流和資產負債表幾乎比兩年前強得多。

Now moving forward, I think that what we have to do is even to accelerate the path and the speed to accelerate profitable growth and unlock greater efficiencies. But on that one, I will leave for the CAGNY for us to speak a little bit more next week. Thank you for the question, Bryan.

現在向前看，我認為我們要做的甚至是加快盈利增長和釋放更高效率的路徑和速度。但在這一點上，我將前往 CAGNY 讓我們在下週多談一點。謝謝你的問題，布萊恩。

All right. And then, Paulo, I wanted to just ask if you could give us a little bit more help with phasing for the year. And I guess more specifically, as we're looking at the first half, are there anything we should consider, I guess, if we're thinking about first quarter versus second quarter in terms of, I don't know, is inflation more pronounced earlier in the year, the impact of pricing to help offset inflation, like how that flows?

好的。然後，保羅，我想問你是否可以在今年的分階段為我們提供更多幫助。我想更具體地說，當我們在看上半年時，有什麼我們應該考慮的嗎今年早些時候宣布，定價有助於抵消通貨膨脹的影響，比如它是如何流動的？

And also in the prepared remarks, you talked a bit about or there was some discussion about supply chain. So are some of the supply chain disruptions may be more pronounced earlier in the year or earlier in the first half than the back half? So just any help you can give us in terms of the shape of the quarters would be really helpful.

在準備好的評論中，你談到了一些關於供應鏈的討論。那麼，一些供應鏈中斷是否可能在今年早些時候或上半年比下半年更明顯？因此，就宿舍的形狀而言，您能給我們的任何幫助都會非常有幫助。

Sure, Bryan. So if -- stepping back a little bit, like we closed 2021 very strong. Our EBITDA was $6.37 billion. And in this number, we had approximately $400 million of divested business, okay? So we start from there. We are going to see -- we are expecting to see the benefit of our sales growth, the combination of pricing plus efficiencies that we have in our plan mitigating the inflation, the higher inflation that we are seeing. And also we expect some headwind from volume and mix, and we are assuming a more conservative levels of consumption and elasticities as the stimulus and government support fades, okay?

當然，布萊恩。因此，如果 - 退後一點，就像我們在 2021 年結束時非常強勁。我們的 EBITDA 為 63.7 億美元。在這個數字中，我們剝離了大約 4 億美元的業務，好嗎？所以我們從那裡開始。我們將看到——我們期待看到我們的銷售增長、定價和我們在減輕通貨膨脹的計劃中的效率相結合的好處，以及我們看到的更高的通貨膨脹。此外，我們預計數量和組合會出現一些阻力，隨著刺激和政府支持的消退，我們假設消費和彈性水平會更加保守，好嗎？

And again, as you said, we are expecting closer to 47-53, H1, H2, and this reflects the -- where we are currently on the inflation versus the price curve that we are implementing. Also, the recovery, as you mentioned, of the supply chain constraints that we have, that we expect this to improve through the first half. There is also here in terms of the curve, we are going to have this year 53rd week that will benefit our Q4 in the magnitude of $60 million to $70 million. That's what we're expecting.

同樣，正如您所說，我們預計 H1、H2 接近 47-53，這反映了我們目前處於通脹與我們正在實施的價格曲線的位置。此外，正如你所提到的，我們所面臨的供應鏈限制正在恢復，我們預計這將在上半年得到改善。就曲線而言，我們今年將迎來第 53 週，這將使我們的第四季度受益 6000 萬至 7000 萬美元。這就是我們所期待的。

And in terms of inside the first half between Q1 and Q2, we expect Q1 to be softer in relation to Q2 because of the timing of Easter shipments that we're going to have this year and also the timing that we are executing our pricing.

就第一季度和第二季度之間的上半年而言，我們預計第一季度將比第二季度疲軟，因為我們今年將有復活節發貨的時間以及我們執行定價的時間。

Our next question comes from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lazar。

I was hoping to get a bit more clarity on the various buckets you broke out in the prepared remarks with respect to the supply chain constraints and market share. Maybe could you be a bit more specific on sort of what the onetime issues were in the fourth quarter and why you've got visibility to this being fixed by the end of Q1? Is the second bucket you mentioned of supply constraints simply demand outstripping supply and not necessarily execution-related? And then the third bucket, I assume, are brands that are losing share for other reasons than supply constraints. So maybe if you can just sort of give us a little more clarity on those 3 buckets, that would be really helpful.

我希望能更清楚地了解您在準備好的評論中關於供應鏈限制和市場份額的各種說法。也許您能否更具體地說明第四季度的一次性問題以及為什麼您可以在第一季度末解決這個問題？您提到的第二個供應限制是否只是需求超過供應而不一定與執行相關？然後，我認為第三類是由於供應限制以外的其他原因而失去份額的品牌。因此，也許如果您可以讓我們更清楚地了解這三個桶，那將非常有幫助。

Thank you, Andrew, and it's Carlos and I'm happy to take it. So as you said, in the prepared remarks, I broke this out, but let me give you a little more color on each of those. So firstly, the 40% of our share loss in Q4 was -- as you said, was due to onetime supply and similar challenges. And what I mean by that is things like we saw in places where Philadelphia Cream Cheese, for example, given some packages issues that we had, that we know what happened. Those are related more to whether it was packaging materials in the case of Philadelphia Cream Cheese, whether it was labor in case of Oscar Mayer bacon, so we have visibility on those, and we know that we are able to actually come back and recover in Q1.

謝謝你，安德魯，我是 Carlos，我很高興接受。所以正如你所說，在準備好的評論中，我打破了這一點，但讓我給你更多的顏色。因此，首先，我們在第四季度的 40% 份額損失是——正如你所說，是由於一次性供應和類似的挑戰。我的意思是我們在費城奶油奶酪的地方看到的東西，例如，考慮到我們遇到的一些包裝問題，我們知道發生了什麼。這些更多地與費城奶油奶酪是否是包裝材料有關，是否是奧斯卡梅耶培根的勞動，所以我們對這些有了解，我們知道我們實際上能夠回來並恢復Q1。

The second bucket is around the 30% that was really due to more -- think of those as more production constraints that we actually expect to resolve in the first half, to exit them in a good place as we end Q2. And those are things where the actual production was driving the constraint. So think of those as Heinz gravy where capacity is limited, and we were able -- but we are now doing things in order to free capacity to service the high demand that we're seeing, whether that was in places like Lunchables where we have some ongoing labor constraints that we are solving and we'll be able to, again, execute to in a much better way.

第二個桶大約是 30%，這實際上是由於更多 - 將這些視為我們實際上希望在上半年解決的更多生產限制，以便在我們結束第二季度時在一個好的地方退出它們。這些都是實際生產驅動約束的事情。所以想想那些容量有限的亨氏肉汁，我們有能力——但我們現在正在做一些事情，以釋放容量來滿足我們所看到的高需求，無論是在我們有午餐的地方我們正在解決一些持續的勞動力限制，我們將能夠再次以更好的方式執行。

And then the third bucket, in some essentially as -- they are in categories, and frankly, they're tilted towards growth in categories, where we're actually looking to implement new game plans this year. And think of those essentially as new creative ways in which we can deliver strong demand. And when you put it all together, I can tell you that we have the clear visibility on what needs to be done, and we actually have clear actions as well to make sure it happens. So we feel very good as we exit both Q1 and Q2 to recover this. So thank you.

然後是第三個桶，在某些方面，它們基本上屬於類別，坦率地說，它們傾向於類別的增長，我們實際上希望在今年實施新的遊戲計劃。並將這些本質上視為我們可以提供強勁需求的新創意方式。當你把它們放在一起時，我可以告訴你，我們清楚地知道需要做什麼，我們實際上也有明確的行動來確保它發生。因此，當我們退出第一季度和第二季度以恢復這一點時，我們感覺非常好。所以謝謝。

Our next question comes from Chris Growe with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chris Growe 和 Stifel。

I just had a quick question for you to understand, and I think this kind of follows on your answer there, Carlos, on Andrew's question. The production constraints you had, I think, you said were like 30% of the share losses. Can you help quantify like what that -- how much that weighed on sales, what the listing opportunity was in the quarter?

我只是有一個簡單的問題讓你理解，我認為這種情況是在你對 Andrew 問題的回答中，Carlos。我認為，您所說的生產限制相當於 30% 的股份損失。你能幫忙量化一下——這對銷售額有多大影響，本季度的上市機會是什麼？

And then I also -- I'm just curious around that. You did talk about in your prepared -- the prerecorded remarks about a real focus on market share in 2022. So I just want to get a better sense of kind of your expectations there and then how that could affect, say, volume and pricing and promotional efforts, that kind of thing, for the coming year.

然後我也 - 我只是對此感到好奇。你在準備好的時候確實談到了——預先錄製的關於 2022 年真正關注市場份額的評論。所以我只是想更好地了解你的期望，然後這會如何影響，比如說，數量和定價，以及來年的促銷活動，諸如此類的事情。

First of all, thank you for the question. I would say I think it's a little bit difficult to quantify the share to the volume. What I can tell you is those are -- in that last 30%, those are categories, again, that we continue to see opportunity for us to service the consumer demand in a stronger way. So we have something that is focused for us. And we are -- the reality is that we have been -- we are actually thinking through very creative ways in which we can actually satisfy that demand going forward.

首先，謝謝你的提問。我想說我認為量化份額的數量有點困難。我可以告訴你的是，在最後的 30% 中，這些是類別，我們繼續看到我們以更強大的方式滿足消費者需求的機會。所以我們有一些專注於我們的東西。而且我們 - 現實是我們一直 - 我們實際上正在思考非常有創意的方式，我們可以真正滿足未來的需求。

And to your point around our focus on share, absolutely. For us, it's something that we as a company take very seriously. We mentioned the fact that we have great bright spots within our business, big iconic brands that have been growing quite a bit of share. But as we think about going forward, we want to make sure that it's consistently across our businesses and us being able to deal with the recovery, both in Q1 and Q2 as we exit the first half, is going to help us actually continue to grow in that perspective. Thank you.

絕對是關於我們對分享的關注。對我們來說，這是我們作為一家公司非常重視的事情。我們提到了這樣一個事實，即我們的業務中有很大的亮點，大型標誌性品牌的份額一直在增長。但是當我們考慮向前發展時，我們希望確保它在我們的業務中始終如一，並且我們能夠在第一季度和第二季度在我們退出上半年時應對複蘇，這將幫助我們實際繼續增長在那個角度。謝謝你。

If I could just add, many -- sorry, go ahead.

如果我可以添加，很多- 抱歉，請繼續。

Please. No, go ahead.

請。沒有，繼續。

Okay. Just real quickly, just at many times, a focus on market share can imply heavier promotional spending or those kinds of things. It sounds like you've got more new product innovation, those -- advertising, those kind of consumer pull more than a consumer push to generate that market share. Is that fair to say?

好的。很快，很多時候，對市場份額的關注可能意味著更多的促銷支出或類似的事情。聽起來你有更多的新產品創新，那些 - 廣告，那些消費者拉動更多的是消費者推動產生市場份額。這樣說公平嗎？

Listen, I think for me, whenever I talk about market share, think of it as profitable market share. I've been in -- working in food company for a number of years. And there is no substitute to make sure that we -- whenever we think about market share, it has to be done in a proper way. We have to make sure we do -- everything that we do is with a consumer-first approach to make sure we're, in fact, bringing consumer solutions. Whether that is location-based, in-store and online, we'll always focus on making sure that it's done with a drive on profitable market share growth.

聽著，對我來說，每當我談到市場份額時，都將其視為有利可圖的市場份額。我在食品公司工作了很多年。並且沒有替代品可以確保我們 - 每當我們考慮市場份額時，都必須以適當的方式完成。我們必須確保我們所做的一切——我們所做的一切都是以消費者為先的方法，以確保我們實際上是在為消費者提供解決方案。無論是基於位置的、店內的還是在線的，我們都將始終專注於確保實現盈利的市場份額增長。

Our next question comes from Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alexia Howard 和 Bernstein。

Can I ask about what came through better than expected in the fourth quarter? When you reported at the end of October, you were talking about adjusted EBITDA, I think, in the $6.1 billion to $6.2 billion range, and it came through at $6.4 billion. That's a big step-up for the last couple of months of the year. So could you just walk us through what the positive surprises were and whether those are likely to continue?

我能問一下第四季度的情況好於預期嗎？當您在 10 月底報告時，您談論的是調整後的 EBITDA，我認為在 61 億美元至 62 億美元之間，最終達到 64 億美元。這是今年最後幾個月的一大進步。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下積極的驚喜是什麼，以及這些驚喜是否可能會持續下去？

I think -- Paulo here. I think I can take this one. I think we saw -- we were able to -- even with many constraints, we were able to produce better. It's fair to say that if we're able to -- if we had more capacity, would have sold even more, but we were able to operate in terms of volume and capacity better than we planned. And also our promotion strategy came in better than -- we promoted less than we were expecting initially. I think those 2 areas, together with overdelivering in terms of efficiencies, though I would add to this third point, were the main factors to -- of the -- our strong performance in the fourth quarter.

我想——保羅在這裡。我想我可以拿下這個。我認為我們看到——我們能夠——即使有很多限制，我們也能夠做得更好。公平地說，如果我們能夠——如果我們有更多的產能，我們會賣出更多，但我們能夠在數量和產能方面比我們計劃的更好。而且我們的促銷策略也比我們最初預期的要好。我認為這兩個領域，加上效率方面的超額交付，儘管我想補充第三點，是我們第四季度強勁表現的主要因素。

Our next question comes from Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Rob Dickerson。

Just a question and a commentary around expected stronger consumption in '22. Obviously, that's despite higher pricing and, you said, you being somewhat conservative, it sounds like on the volume side as you look to your internal forecast. I'm just curious, when you come up with those forecasts, as we think about like back half of the year, right, is the feel that you might just be a little bit better positioned given price points, maybe a little bit more -- or let's say, better positioned with respect to trade down risk? I'm just trying to get a sense as to why you think consumption would actually be up at least in the at-home channel. And then I have a quick follow-up.

只是一個關於 22 年預期消費強勁的問題和評論。顯然，儘管定價更高，而且您說您有些保守，但當您查看內部預測時，這聽起來像是在數量方面。我只是好奇，當你提出這些預測時，正如我們在下半年考慮的那樣，是的，感覺你可能只是在給定價格點的情況下處於更好的位置，也許更多一點 - - 或者說，在交易下行風險方面處於更好的位置？我只是想了解為什麼你認為消費實際上至少會在家庭渠道中上升。然後我有一個快速跟進。

Like I can start here and maybe Carlos can complement if he feels the need. What we have embedded in our outlook is that we are -- again, we are going to -- we expect, as we said, low single-digit organic sales growth in this year with greater contribution from the growth platforms that we have. Our foodservice channel is also recovering and gaining share in all the emerging markets performance and our continued strong performance through distribution. And also, as I was mentioning before, some relief of the key supply chain constraints that -- as the year progresses.

就像我可以從這裡開始一樣，如果卡洛斯覺得有必要，也許他可以補充。正如我們所說，我們在展望中所嵌入的內容是，我們預計今年的有機銷售額將出現低個位數增長，而我們擁有的增長平台將做出更大的貢獻。我們的餐飲服務渠道也在復蘇，並在所有新興市場表現中獲得份額，我們通過分銷繼續保持強勁表現。而且，正如我之前提到的，隨著時間的推移，一些關鍵的供應鏈限制得到了緩解。

But we -- as we were discussing, we also are embedding in our forecast, in our expectation, some headwinds in volume and impacting volume in '22 because we are taking into consideration the fact that we are going to be lapping stimulus from the government support that happened and also a more conservative levels of elasticity than we saw before. But net-net -- so that is that -- we are -- we have assumptions that are more conservative in terms of elasticity and consumption that we're seeing today, but we think it's the appropriate way to go in our outlook.

但是我們——正如我們所討論的那樣，我們也在我們的預測中嵌入了一些逆風，並影響了 22 年的交易量，因為我們正在考慮這樣一個事實，即我們將受到政府的刺激發生的支持以及比我們以前看到的更保守的彈性水平。但是淨 - 就是這樣 - 我們是 - 我們的假設在我們今天看到的彈性和消費方面更加保守，但我們認為這是我們展望的適當方式。

Yes. The one thing, I guess, I would add to what Paulo just said is that as we're doing that, we also continue to make investments to make sure we improve our brand value proposition. And we're doing that through renovation of our brands, driving disruptive innovation and continue to service new occasion-based solutions, whether that's for in-store, online for today's consumers' needs. So that continues even as we are continuing to progress throughout the year. Thanks for the question.

是的。我想，我想補充一下保羅剛才所說的一件事，即在我們這樣做的同時，我們還將繼續進行投資，以確保我們改善我們的品牌價值主張。我們正在通過更新我們的品牌、推動顛覆性創新來實現這一目標，並繼續提供基於新場合的解決方案，無論是針對當今消費者的店內還是在線解決方案。因此，即使我們全年都在繼續進步，這種情況仍在繼續。謝謝你的問題。

All right. Super. And then very quickly, Paulo, you've done a very nice job of improving your leverage positioning at the end of the year still with a decent cash balance. Should we just be thinking as you go forward that kind of use of cash would either be for just kind of smaller add-on acquisitions or just kind of an ongoing deleverage cycle as you get through '22? That's it.

好的。極好的。然後很快，Paulo，您在年底改善槓桿頭寸方面做得非常好，現金餘額仍然不錯。我們是否應該在您繼續前進時考慮這種現金的使用要么只是用於較小的附加收購，還是只是在您度過 22 年時進行的一種持續的去槓桿週期？就是這樣。

Sure. We -- as -- like our leverage target is below 4x, and we are well below that level today. And we expect to remain consistently below that going forward. Just want to highlight one point here, investment grade for us remains really strategically important, and we have enough flexibility today in our balance sheet, in our capital structure to continue to evaluate opportunities to accelerate our strategy in an accretive way and with price discipline. But we are really closing now the way that we are today in terms of flexibility in the balance sheet that we have, we feel the company in a very strong position.

當然。我們 - 就像 - 我們的槓桿目標低於 4 倍，而我們今天遠低於該水平。我們預計未來將始終保持在該水平之下。只想在這裡強調一點，投資等級對我們來說仍然具有戰略意義，而且我們今天的資產負債表和資本結構有足夠的靈活性，可以繼續評估以增值方式和價格紀律加速我們的戰略的機會。但是，就我們擁有的資產負債表的靈活性而言，我們現在確實以今天的方式收盤，我們認為公司處於非常有利的地位。

Our next question comes from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉考夫曼。

Can you comment on where overall inflation came in for 2021 and what assumption you're making for inflation in '22 and then, I guess, just how much of your costs are covered for the year and what your visibility is on the cost outlook?

您能否評論一下 2021 年的總體通貨膨脹率以及您對 22 年通貨膨脹率所做的假設，然後，我猜，您今年支付了多少成本以及您對成本前景的能見度如何？

Sure. So let me take that. Our Q4 inflation were higher than we expected in our October call. We ended up like with a low double digit. But for 2022, we are likely to see or like expecting today a year of inflation of low teens for the full year, okay? And we expect this inflation to be higher in the first half than in the second half.

當然。所以讓我接受。我們的第四季度通脹高於我們在 10 月電話會議中的預期。我們最終得到了一個低兩位數。但對於 2022 年，我們很可能會看到或期待今天全年的青少年通脹率較低，好嗎？我們預計上半年的通脹將高於下半年。

And just to complement, in the -- by the end of next -- last year in '21, we took the necessary actions to mitigate the inflation we were seeing. And since then, more inflation has come, and we are taking these additional actions as we've been discussing.

為了補充——到明年年底——去年的 21 年，我們採取了必要的行動來緩解我們所看到的通貨膨脹。從那以後，更多的通貨膨脹來了，我們正在採取這些額外的行動，正如我們一直在討論的那樣。

And we are -- when you look about -- in terms of our hedging position, we normally hedge -- although we hedge a more significant part of the commodities, when you talk about our total COGS, we only hedge around 20% to 30% of the COGS. So -- because there are a lot of other costs that are not only commodities in our cost. So again, that is the range that we have hedged. So it's not material when we have a situation that we're having today that we are seeing inflation in pretty much all the lines of our COGS.

而且我們——當你看一看——就我們的對沖頭寸而言，我們通常對沖——儘管我們對沖大部分商品，但當你談到我們的總銷貨成本時，我們只對沖大約 20% 到 30%銷貨成本的百分比。所以——因為在我們的成本中還有很多其他成本不僅僅是商品。再說一次，這就是我們對沖的範圍。因此，當我們遇到今天的情況時，我們在 COGS 的幾乎所有產品線上都看到了通貨膨脹，這並不重要。

Our next question comes from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Goldman。

I'm curious, in your guidance for 2022, how much does the outlook require or bake in, I guess, what I would consider rational behavior from your competitors? In other words, are there any assumptions that as the consumer maybe gets a little bit more stretched as prices rise a little bit, as some of your competitors also add to their capacity, is there any expectation built in that there might be -- you talked about elasticity certainly being there, but maybe a little bit more of an aggressive stance from some of your rivals? I'm just trying to get a sense for what's baked in.

我很好奇，在您對 2022 年的指導中，前景需要多少或考慮多少，我猜，我認為您的競爭對手的理性行為是什麼？換句話說，是否有任何假設，隨著價格上漲一點點，消費者可能會變得更加緊張，因為你的一些競爭對手也增加了他們的產能，是否有任何內置的預期可能——你談到彈性當然是存在的，但也許你的一些競爭對手的立場更加激進？我只是想了解一下里面有什麼。

The other thing, I think, that -- I'm not going to comment on what they're doing, how they're going to run their business. So let me tell you a little bit about how I see our business and why I feel good about the way kind of we think about us going forward. For us, the important thing is to make sure we continue to stay investing in a differentiated portfolio. And we're doing this because we actually are able to provide consumers, whether it's an entry into the category, a mainstream product or our premium products, consumer actually have a way in which to acquire product from Kraft Heinz. And you see that in places like Mac & Cheese, where it go from an Easy Mac to the original version of Mac & Cheese.

另一件事，我認為，我不會評論他們正在做什麼，他們將如何經營他們的業務。所以讓我告訴你一些關於我如何看待我們的業務以及為什麼我對我們對我們前進的看法感覺良好的原因。對我們來說，重要的是確保我們繼續投資於差異化的投資組合。我們這樣做是因為我們實際上能夠為消費者提供，無論是進入該類別，主流產品還是我們的優質產品，消費者實際上都有一種從卡夫亨氏購買產品的方式。你會在像 Mac & Cheese 這樣的地方看到這一點，從 Easy Mac 到 Mac & Cheese 的原始版本。

We also are continuing to strengthen our portfolio because, as you know, we have made some important divestitures that really have reduced kind of our exposures to private label and other places where historically have been more competitive. In fact, we've gone from 17% of exposure to private label to now 11%, which -- and I think it's -- industry average is around 20%. So we also -- we only -- we are making investments. We have a place in which consumers can come into the category. We're less exposed to historically private level businesses. And we continue to make sure we're offering great quality products at prices that consumers can afford.

我們還在繼續加強我們的投資組合，因為如您所知，我們已經進行了一些重要的資產剝離，這確實減少了我們在自有品牌和其他歷史上更具競爭力的地方的風險敞口。事實上，我們已經從 17% 的自有品牌曝光率上升到現在的 11%，我認為是 20% 左右的行業平均水平。所以我們也——我們只是——我們正在投資。我們有一個地方可以讓消費者進入這個類別。我們較少接觸歷史上的私營企業。我們將繼續確保以消費者能夠承受的價格提供優質產品。

So we are focused on making sure that everything we're doing is around delivering great value, meaning quality products, in a way that is accessible to consumers. That's what we're focused here in Kraft Heinz. Thank you.

因此，我們專注於確保我們所做的一切都圍繞著以消費者可以使用的方式提供巨大的價值，即優質的產品。這就是我們在卡夫亨氏的重點。謝謝你。

Makes sense. And then very quickly (inaudible) a follow-up. For the gross margin, the Street's modeling a pretty flattish figure in 2022 versus '21. Recognizing you don't provide specific guidance for this line item, just directionally, I guess, is it fair to say that gross margin is more likely to be down than flat? Just especially in light of, I guess, your reminder this morning that in the context of inflation, you're aiming to recapture gross profit dollars, not necessarily percentages.

說得通。然後很快（聽不清）跟進。對於毛利率，華爾街對 2022 年與 21 年的建模相當平淡。認識到你沒有為這個項目提供具體的指導，我猜只是方向性的，說毛利率更有可能下降而不是持平是否公平？我想，尤其是鑑於您今天早上提醒您，在通貨膨脹的背景下，您的目標是重新獲得毛利潤，而不一定是百分比。

Yes. Listen, when you think about -- as costs stabilize and price realization and efficiencies continue, our margin percentage here will normalize, okay? As we have mentioned before, we are expecting lower run rate margins percentage levels at the -- in the beginning of this year, and our actions are to protect the dollar profitability. So we are protecting the dollar margin year-over-year. That's how we are thinking here.

是的。聽著，當你想——隨著成本穩定、價格實現和效率繼續提高，我們的利潤率將正常化，好嗎？正如我們之前提到的，我們預計今年年初的運行利潤率百分比水平會降低，我們的行動是保護美元的盈利能力。因此，我們正在逐年保護美元保證金。這就是我們在這裡的想法。

Our next question comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

Following up on the topic of elasticity, I just wonder if you could provide any more context in terms of your assumptions for the coming year in that regard. And really, any variation you're thinking about and we should be thinking about, about how elasticity is anticipated to maybe vary across your platforms or across your geographic regions?

跟進彈性話題，我只是想知道您是否可以就您對來年在這方面的假設提供更多背景信息。實際上，您正在考慮和我們應該考慮的任何變化，關於彈性在您的平台或您的地理區域之間的預期可能如何變化？

I think -- I'm guessing that you're referring mostly to our U.S. business. So let me just take that up first. I think so far, and Paulo spoke to this a little bit earlier, other expectation for elasticity have proven to be conservative. So as we go forward, we're expecting some of those more, I would say, normal levels of elasticity to impact in 2022. And just to be clear, our outlook contemplates both those elevated levels of elasticity and the continued investments on our brand value proposition.

我想——我猜你主要指的是我們的美國業務。所以讓我先處理一下。我認為到目前為止，保羅早些時候談到了這一點，其他對彈性的期望已被證明是保守的。因此，隨著我們向前發展，我們預計其中的一些正常水平的彈性將在 2022 年產生影響。為了明確起見，我們的前景既考慮了彈性水平的提高，也考慮了對我們品牌的持續投資價值主張。

Now when you look at overall -- kind of how the way we look at the business is that demand really has remained pretty much intact. So the inflation, which is, as you know, being broad-based and not specific to one category is really kind of impacting everywhere similarly. Now if you look at it deeper, personal spending on food has been more stable than disposable income or even discretionary spending over time. And if you go even further, when you look at Kraft Heinz specifically, the reality is that we have, as I said earlier, quality products in which -- in categories in which we can compete at a price that is affordable to consumers.

現在，當您查看整體時-我們看待業務的方式是，需求確實幾乎完好無損。因此，正如你所知，通貨膨脹是基礎廣泛的，而不是特定於某一類別的，實際上對各地都有類似的影響。現在，如果您更深入地觀察，隨著時間的推移，個人在食品上的支出比可支配收入甚至可自由支配的支出更穩定。如果你走得更遠，當你具體看卡夫亨氏時，現實是，正如我之前所說，我們擁有優質產品，在這些產品中，我們可以以消費者可以承受的價格競爭。

I mean just to give you a sense, I mean, when you think about Kraft Mac & Cheese, blue box is about $0.50 per serving. If you think about Oscar Mayer hotdogs, it's about $0.25 a piece. If you think about Heinz Ketchup, it's about $0.10 an ounce. So those are things that we continue to feel strong about because we have a way in which to create great quality products at a way that consumers can afford. But we're also taking more actions than that. We also are using our design to value to make sure that we're thinking around how do we boost quality in our products while reducing cost, essentially making sure that we give consumers exactly what they're looking for and not the things they don't need.

我的意思是給你一個感覺，我的意思是，當你想到卡夫通心粉和奶酪時，藍盒子每份大約 0.50 美元。如果你想想奧斯卡梅耶熱狗，它的價格約為 0.25 美元。如果你想想亨氏番茄醬，它大約是每盎司 0.10 美元。所以這些是我們繼續感到強烈的事情，因為我們有辦法以消費者負擔得起的方式創造優質產品。但我們也採取了更多的行動。我們還使用我們的設計來評估價值，以確保我們正在考慮如何在降低成本的同時提高產品質量，從根本上確保我們為消費者提供他們正在尋找的東西，而不是他們不想要的東西'不需要。

And lastly, we're also making sure that we're investing in better creative and communication so that we have, in fact, stronger relevance of our brands that actually are helping us make sure that we continue to drive better renovations, innovations in a way that matters to what consumers are looking for today. Thank you.

最後，我們還確保我們正在投資於更好的創意和溝通，以便我們的品牌實際上具有更強的相關性，這實際上正在幫助我們確保我們繼續推動更好的翻新，創新這對今天的消費者所尋找的東西很重要。謝謝你。

Okay. Great. If I could follow up on a different topic actually. There's a good deal of discussion about your strategy to expand and drive growth in emerging markets. And I guess as we think about the strategic investments that you've embedded in the '22 plan, can you just talk about the sort of the allocation of those investments in your developed markets versus your emerging markets and just how much of an accelerated push towards the emerging markets you're thinking about and we should be thinking about as it relates to the new year?

好的。偉大的。如果我實際上可以跟進不同的主題。關於您在新興市場擴張和推動增長的戰略有很多討論。而且我想當我們考慮您在 22 計劃中嵌入的戰略投資時，您能否談談這些投資在您的發達市場與新興市場的分配方式以及加速推動的程度對於你正在考慮的新興市場，我們應該考慮它與新的一年有關嗎？

Maybe I can take it here. It's Rafa speaking. Look, we continue to be very optimistic of our strategy. We focus on emerging markets, right, on Taste Elevation. And -- I mean, we continue to expect double-digit organic growth, further gains of market share in the future and leveraging our repeatable go-to-market model. I mean this has been live in about 30% of the countries we operate today in emerging markets, and we look to continue growing this and boosting our go-to-market further in 2022.

也許我可以把它帶到這裡。是拉法說話。看，我們繼續對我們的戰略非常樂觀。我們專注於新興市場，沒錯，就是品味提升。而且——我的意思是，我們繼續期待兩位數的有機增長，未來市場份額的進一步增長，並利用我們可重複的上市模式。我的意思是，我們目前在新興市場運營的約 30% 的國家/地區都已實現這一點，我們希望在 2022 年繼續發展並進一步推動我們的市場進入。

So I mean, the strategy remains the same. We'll play the -- as we've been doing, we did 4 acquisitions in 2021, add-ons in different markets that enable us to expand within our Taste Elevation focus in specific countries that we see a big opportunity for growth. So that strategy should remain. It's paying off and we will continue.

所以我的意思是，策略保持不變。我們將發揮 - 正如我們一直在做的那樣，我們在 2021 年進行了 4 次收購，在不同市場進行了附加，使我們能夠在我們認為有巨大增長機會的特定國家/地區擴展我們的品味提升重點。所以這個策略應該保留。它得到了回報，我們將繼續。

And Rafael, I would just add that the engine for growth in these emerging markets is really the brand Heinz that is in unbelievable shape and getting better every day from a consumer standpoint, which gives us a lot of opportunities for growth to expand Heinz further, not only ketchup, but other products. So emerging markets will continue being a great engine of our growth.

Rafael，我只想補充一點，這些新興市場的增長引擎實際上是 Heinz 品牌，從消費者的角度來看，它的狀態令人難以置信，並且每天都在變得更好，這為我們提供了很多增長機會來進一步擴展 Heinz，不僅是番茄醬，還有其他產品。因此，新興市場將繼續成為我們增長的重要引擎。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to pass the call back to Chris Jakubik for closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回給 Chris Jakubik 以結束髮言。

Well, thanks, everyone, for joining us today. For follow-up questions, myself and the rest of the IR team will be available for any additional questions. But thanks again for joining us today, and we'll see you at CAGNY next week.

嗯，謝謝大家，今天加入我們。對於後續問題，我本人和 IR 團隊的其他成員將可以回答任何其他問題。但再次感謝您今天加入我們，我們下週在 CAGNY 再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。