Korn Ferry (KFY) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Korn Ferry Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded for replay purposes. We have also made available in the Investor Relations section of our website at kornferry.com, a copy of the financial presentation that we will be reviewing with you today.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到光輝國際 2023 財年第三季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，正在錄製此電話會議以供重播。我們還在我們網站 kornferry.com 的投資者關係部分提供了我們今天將與您一起審查的財務演示文稿的副本。

Before we turn the call over to your host, Mr. Gary Burnison, let me first read a cautionary statement to investors. Certain statements made in the call today, such as those relating to future performance, plans and goals, constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although the company believes the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. Actual results in future periods may differ materially from those currently expected or desired because of a number of risks and uncertainties, which are beyond the company's control.

在我們將電話轉給主持人 Gary Burnison 先生之前，讓我先向投資者宣讀一份警告聲明。今天電話會議中作出的某些陳述，例如與未來業績、計劃和目標有關的陳述，構成 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。儘管公司認為這些前瞻性陳述中反映的預期陳述基於合理的假設，請投資者不要過分依賴此類陳述。由於許多超出公司控制的風險和不確定性，未來期間的實際結果可能與當前預期或期望的結果存在重大差異。

Additional information concerning such risks and uncertainties can be found in the release relating to this presentation and in the periodic and other reports filed by the company with the SEC, including the company's annual report for fiscal year 2022 and the company's soon to be filed quarterly report for the quarter ended January 31, 2023. Also, some of the comments today may reference non-GAAP financial measures such as constant currency amounts, EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA. Additional information concerning these measures, including reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is contained in the financial presentation and earnings release relating to this call, both of which are posted in the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.kornferry.com.

有關此類風險和不確定性的更多信息，請參閱與本演示文稿相關的新聞稿以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告和其他報告，包括公司 2022 財年年度報告和公司即將提交的季度報告截至 2023 年 1 月 31 日的季度。此外，今天的一些評論可能會參考非 GAAP 財務指標，例如固定貨幣金額、EBITDA 和調整後的 EBITDA。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務措施的調節，包含在與本次電話會議相關的財務報告和收益發布中，兩者均發佈在公司網站 www.kornferry.com 的投資者關係部分.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary Burnison. Please go ahead, Gary.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給加里·伯尼森。請繼續，加里。

Okay. Thanks, Greg, and good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for joining us. Number one, I'm very proud of our third quarter performance, particularly in light of the macroeconomic environment. Given our scale and the depth and breadth of our IP data and content, we are incredibly well positioned to enable our clients to navigate an economy in transition.

好的。謝謝，格雷格，大家下午好。感謝您加入我們。第一，我對我們第三季度的業績感到非常自豪，尤其是考慮到宏觀經濟環境。鑑於我們的規模以及我們知識產權數據和內容的深度和廣度，我們處於令人難以置信的有利地位，使我們的客戶能夠駕馭轉型中的經濟。

Our strategy is working. We've built synergistic businesses around Executive Search that are generating more durable fee revenues. We're going to continue to prioritize investment in the larger, faster-growing, less cyclical markets that set our firm and our clients up for success. As an example, the recent addition of Salo now brings our Interim Services to be more than 10% of our firm's revenue on a pro forma basis. This wasn't even a business for us a year ago. And yes, this might be the most anticipated downturn ever, but this is also a transitory time. And like others in the past, it also brings opportunity. It's a proving ground for the efficiency of our strategy, the strength of our culture, the resilience of our colleagues and the potency of the Korn Ferry brand.

我們的策略正在奏效。我們圍繞 Executive Search 建立了協同業務，這些業務正在產生更持久的費用收入。我們將繼續優先投資於更大、增長更快、週期性更小的市場，這些市場為我們的公司和客戶的成功奠定了基礎。例如，最近增加的 Salo 現在使我們的臨時服務在備考基礎上占我們公司收入的 10% 以上。一年前，這甚至不是我們的業務。是的，這可能是有史以來最令人期待的衰退，但這也是一個短暫的時期。和過去的其他人一樣，它也帶來了機會。這是我們戰略效率、我們文化的力量、我們同事的應變能力以及 Korn Ferry 品牌潛力的試驗場。

With that, Bob, I'll turn it over to you.

有了這個，鮑勃，我會把它交給你。

Great. Thanks, Gary, and good afternoon and good morning, everyone. Our results in the third quarter continue to provide proof that our growth strategy is working. For instance, we continue to demonstrate the ability to drive top line synergies between our solutions. As an example, our recent acquisitions in the Interim space, which we believe provides real outsized opportunities for growth, they have created almost 700 additional engagement wins resulting in an incremental $43 million in fee revenue since the third quarter of fiscal year '22 when we acquired the Lucas Group. And this is all through cross-sales between the acquired entities and legacy Korn Ferry.

偉大的。謝謝，加里，大家下午好，早上好。我們在第三季度的業績繼續證明我們的增長戰略正在發揮作用。例如，我們繼續展示在我們的解決方案之間推動頂線協同效應的能力。例如，我們最近在 Interim 領域的收購，我們認為這提供了真正的巨大增長機會，它們已經創造了近 700 個額外的參與勝利，導致自 22 財年第三季度以來增加了 4300 萬美元的費用收入，當時我們收購盧卡斯集團。而這一切都是通過被收購實體和遺留 Korn Ferry 之間的交叉銷售實現的。

Cross-sells between our other lines of business and both our marquee and regional accounts, both continue to also perform very well in the quarter. I recently celebrated my 11th year with Korn Ferry. And one of the reasons why I joined the company was the growth strategy. It really resonated with me, and I believe more deeply in it today. We are relentlessly driving an integrated solutions-based go-to-market strategy, delivering unparalleled client excellence, extending the Korn Ferry brand, advancing Korn Ferry as the premier career destination and we're pursuing transformational opportunities at the intersection of talent and strategy. This growth strategy served us well back in 2012 when I joined, and it continues to do so and even more today.

我們其他業務線與我們的大型和區域客戶之間的交叉銷售在本季度也繼續表現良好。我最近慶祝了我在 Korn Ferry 工作的第 11 個年頭。我加入公司的原因之一是增長戰略。它真的引起了我的共鳴，今天我更加相信它。我們不懈地推動基於集成解決方案的上市戰略，為客戶提供無與倫比的卓越服務，擴展 Korn Ferry 品牌，將 Korn Ferry 提升為首要的職業目的地，我們正在人才和戰略的交叉點尋求轉型機會。早在 2012 年我加入時，這種增長戰略就為我們提供了很好的服務，並且在今天繼續如此，甚至更多。

Let me turn the call over to Gregg, who will take you through some of the company -- overall company financial highlights.

讓我把電話轉給格雷格，他將帶你了解公司的一些情況——公司的整體財務亮點。

Okay. Thanks, Bob. Turning to our third quarter financial results. Fee revenue was $681 million for the quarter, which was flat year-over-year and up 4% at constant currency. By line of business, fee revenue was mixed as demand in Executive Search and permanent -- placement professional search moderated from post-pandemic recovery highs while our Consulting, Digital, RPO and Interim Solutions remained relatively stable. Measured year-over-year at constant currency, Consulting was up 4%, Digital was essentially flat and RPO was up 9%. Including revenue from recently acquired businesses, Professional Search & Interim was up 33% at constant currency, while Executive Search was down 9%.

好的。謝謝，鮑勃。轉向我們的第三季度財務業績。本季度服務費收入為 6.81 億美元，同比持平，按固定匯率計算增長 4%。按業務線劃分，費用收入參差不齊，因為獵頭和永久安置專業搜索的需求從大流行後的複蘇高點有所放緩，而我們的諮詢、數字、RPO 和臨時解決方案保持相對穩定。按固定匯率計算，諮詢業務同比增長 4%，數字業務基本持平，RPO 增長 9%。包括來自最近收購的業務的收入，按固定匯率計算，專業搜索和臨時搜索增長了 33%，而高管搜索下降了 9%。

In the third quarter, consolidated new business, excluding RPO was up 5% year-over-year at constant currency and up approximately 1% at actual rates, with growth in all lines of business except Executive Search. In the third quarter, adjusted EBITDA was $96 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14%, which was in line with our guidance. Earnings and profitability were impacted by an overall mix shift in fee revenue to lower-margin lines of business, investments in fee earner and execution capacity, and to a lesser extent, wage inflation.

第三季度，合併後的新業務（不包括 RPO）按固定匯率計算同比增長 5%，按實際匯率計算增長約 1%，除獵頭外的所有業務線均有增長。第三季度，調整後的 EBITDA 為 9600 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 14%，符合我們的指引。收入和盈利能力受到收費收入向利潤率較低的業務線的整體組合轉變、對收費人員和執行能力的投資以及較小程度上的工資通脹的影響。

Adjusted fully diluted earnings per share in the third quarter were $1.01, which was down $0.58 or 36% year-over-year. Adjusted fully diluted earnings per share excludes an after-tax charge of $42 million or $0.80 per share related to the realignment of our workforce and the impairment of certain real estate assets. GAAP fully diluted earnings per share in the third quarter were $0.21.

第三季度調整後的全麵攤薄後每股收益為 1.01 美元，同比下降 0.58 美元或 36%。調整後的完全稀釋每股收益不包括與我們的員工隊伍調整和某些房地產資產減值相關的 4200 萬美元或每股 0.80 美元的稅後費用。第三季度 GAAP 完全攤薄每股收益為 0.21 美元。

Our investable cash position remains strong and our current capital deployment continue to be balanced. For all of fiscal '23, through the end of the third quarter, we repurchased approximately $80 million of our stock, paid cash dividends of approximately $25 million, deployed $99 million for business acquisitions and funded about $48 million of capital expenditures, most of which was directed towards product development initiatives for our digital business.

我們的可投資現金狀況依然強勁，我們目前的資本配置繼續保持平衡。在整個 23 財年，到第三季度末，我們回購了大約 8000 萬美元的股票，支付了大約 2500 萬美元的現金股息，部署了 9900 萬美元用於業務收購，並為大約 4800 萬美元的資本支出提供了資金，其中大部分針對我們數字業務的產品開發計劃。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Tiffany to review our operating segments in more detail.

有了這個，我現在將電話轉給蒂芙尼，以更詳細地審查我們的運營部門。

Thanks, Gregg. Starting with KF Digital, global fee revenue in the third quarter was $85 million, which was down 6% year-over-year and approximately flat at constant currency. Digital subscription and license fee revenue in the third quarter was $30 million, which was approximately 31% of fee revenue for the quarter. Global new business for KF Digital was $109 million, with $39 million or 35% of the total tied to subscription and license sales.

謝謝，格雷格。從 KF Digital 開始，第三季度全球手續費收入為 8500 萬美元，同比下降 6%，按固定匯率計算大致持平。第三季度數字訂閱和許可費收入為 3000 萬美元，約佔本季度費用收入的 31%。 KF Digital 的全球新業務為 1.09 億美元，其中 3900 萬美元或總額的 35% 與訂閱和許可銷售相關。

Earnings and profitability in the quarter were impacted by investment in product development initiatives and a slight uptick in SG&A. For Consulting, fee revenue in the third quarter grew to $162 million, which was flat year-over-year and up approximately 4% at constant currency. Fee revenue growth was strongest in organizational strategy, which grew 12% versus prior year. Additionally, global new business for Consulting in the third quarter was up 9% year-over-year at constant currency.

本季度的收益和盈利能力受到產品開發計劃投資和 SG&A 略有上升的影響。對於諮詢，第三季度的費用收入增長至 1.62 億美元，同比持平，按固定匯率計算增長約 4%。費用收入增長在組織戰略中最為強勁，與上一年相比增長了 12%。此外，按固定匯率計算，第三季度全球諮詢新業務同比增長 9%。

The Professional Search & Interim business -- new business increased 30% in the third quarter versus last year, driven by double-digit strength in North America, aided by the current year acquisitions. Total fee revenue was $118 million, up $28 million or 31% over the same time period. Breaking down the quarter, growth in the interim business was more than enough to offset the expected deceleration in the permanent placement portion of the segment.

Professional Search & Interim 業務——新業務在第三季度比去年增長了 30%，這得益於北美兩位數的實力，以及當年的收購。總費用收入為 1.18 億美元，同比增長 2800 萬美元或 31%。按季度細分，臨時業務的增長足以抵消該部門永久配售部分的預期減速。

Interim Services fee revenue grew to $53 million from $15 million in the same quarter of the prior year, driven in part by the recent acquisitions of Patina and ICS. Permanent placement fee revenue declined by $10 million to $65 million year-over-year, down 13% at actual and down 11% at constant currency.

臨時服務費收入從去年同期的 1500 萬美元增長到 5300 萬美元，部分原因是最近收購了 Patina 和 ICS。永久安置費收入同比下降 1000 萬美元至 6500 萬美元，實際下降 13%，按固定匯率計算下降 11%。

Moving on to recruitment process outsourcing. New business for the third quarter was $44 million, and total revenue under contract at the end of the quarter was approximately $837 million. Fee revenue totaled $104 million, which was up $5 million or 5% year-over-year and up approximately 9% at constant currency. The pipeline remains strong as RPO continues to win new business by offering a differentiated tech-enabled solution across a variety of markets and industries. The volume from these new wins offset some of the volume moderation seen over the last few quarters, positioning the RPO business for strong growth in the moderation in the base abate.

繼續進行招聘流程外包。第三季度新業務為 4400 萬美元，本季度末合同總收入約為 8.37 億美元。費用收入總計 1.04 億美元，同比增長 500 萬美元或 5%，按固定匯率計算增長約 9%。隨著 RPO 通過在各種市場和行業提供差異化的技術支持解決方案繼續贏得新業務，管道仍然強勁。這些新訂單的銷量抵消了過去幾個季度出現的部分銷量放緩，使 RPO 業務在基數放緩的情況下實現強勁增長。

Finally, global fee revenue for Executive Search in the third quarter was $212 million, and as expected, experienced a year-over-year decline of 9% at constant currency compared to the high growth rate enjoyed during the pandemic recovery last year. Growth in EMEA was offset by slower demand in North America and APAC. Global new business in the third quarter for Executive Search was down 13% year-over-year and down approximately 10% at constant currency.

最後，第三季度全球獵頭服務費收入為 2.12 億美元，與去年大流行複蘇期間的高增長率相比，按固定匯率計算同比下降 9%。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的增長被北美和亞太地區需求放緩所抵消。第三季度全球獵頭新業務同比下降 13%，按固定匯率計算下降約 10%。

I will now turn the call back over to Bob to discuss our outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal '23.

我現在將把電話轉回鮑勃，討論我們對 23 財年第四季度的展望。

Great. Thanks, Tiffany. Now assuming no new major pandemic-related lockdowns or further changes in worldwide geopolitical conditions, economic conditions, financial markets and foreign exchange rates, we expect fee revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal '23 to range from $690 million to $710 million. Our adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately 14% and our consolidated adjusted diluted earnings per share to range from $0.97 to $1.05. Finally, we expect our GAAP diluted earnings per share in the fourth quarter to range from $0.89 to $0.98.

偉大的。謝謝，蒂芙尼。現在假設沒有新的與大流行相關的重大封鎖或全球地緣政治條件、經濟條件、金融市場和外匯匯率的進一步變化，我們預計 23 財年第四季度的費用收入將在 6.9 億美元至 7.1 億美元之間。我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 14%，我們的綜合調整後攤薄每股收益在 0.97 美元至 1.05 美元之間。最後，我們預計第四季度的 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益在 0.89 美元至 0.98 美元之間。

Now in closing, we continue to believe strongly that our differentiated and diversified offerings and solutions, the organizational consultancy we have built will ensure our clients find solutions for their organizational and talent challenges for both the near term as well as in the long term.

現在結束，我們仍然堅信，我們差異化和多元化的產品和解決方案，我們建立的組織諮詢將確保我們的客戶在短期和長期內為他們的組織和人才挑戰找到解決方案。

With that, we would be glad to answer any questions you may have.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Your first question comes from the line of George Tong from Goldman Sachs.

你的第一個問題來自高盛的George Tong。

Can you discuss how new business trends performed in the month of February? And if you have any insight as well into the month of early March?

您能談談 2 月份新業務趨勢的表現嗎？如果您對 3 月初的月份也有任何了解？

Bob, do you want to do that?

鮑勃，你想這樣做嗎？

Sure. Yes. Our new business trends in February when we closed out the month George, the new business came in right where we expected it to be and actually it was up about 7%, excluding RPO, it was up about 7% year-over-year. RPO had another good -- really good month this month. They did a close to $45 million in new business in the month of February. For March, it's too early to really talk about it as only we got 3 or 4 days in now. So there's really not much to say is the way that the new business comes in, at times, it tends to come more towards the end of the month. So it would be probably too premature to give you any insight into March yet.

當然。是的。我們在 2 月份的新業務趨勢，當我們關閉 George 月份時，新業務正好符合我們的預期，實際上增長了約 7%，不包括 RPO，同比增長約 7%。 RPO 還有一個好事——這個月真是太好了。他們在 2 月份的新業務接近 4500 萬美元。對於 3 月，現在真正談論它還為時過早，因為我們現在只有 3 或 4 天。因此，新業務進入的方式真的沒什麼可說的，有時，它往往會在月底到來。因此，現在讓您深入了解 3 月可能還為時過早。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then on the Digital side...

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。然後在數字方面......

Yes, I was going to say the other thing I would add is the patterns that we're seeing in the month of February were exactly what we saw in the third quarter by line of business.

是的，我要說的另一件事是，我們在 2 月份看到的模式正是我們在第三季度按業務線看到的模式。

Got it. That's helpful. Switching gears to the digital business. Revenue growth there moderated from 15% year-over-year growth in fiscal 2Q at roughly flat constant currency this quarter, fiscal 3Q. Can you elaborate on the reasons behind this change in growth when you expect the reacceleration in growth and what the drivers will be for growth acceleration?

知道了。這很有幫助。轉向數字業務。那裡的收入增長從第二財季 15% 的同比增長放緩至本季度第三財季大致持平的固定匯率。當您預期增長會重新加速時，您能否詳細說明這種增長變化背後的原因，以及增長加速的驅動因素是什麼？

Well, I think the -- there's a couple of short-term drivers, and then there's some medium to long-term drivers. The medium- to long-term drivers revolve around our success with our tech platform that we're building. And that is a set of IP that is anchored around developing technologies using our developmental library of competencies and the like. So that's one factor that will increase the medium to long term. The second is to the extent that we're successful at bringing in partners within our ecosystem to distribute our IP. The third thing I would mention is that when you look at our sales force within the digital channel, you have to remember that almost 30% of the sales force is relatively new in the last, call it, 6 to 9 months. And so it naturally takes time for those people to ramp up. And I'd also point out a shift that we made going back a couple of years, but really 1.5 years ago is moving that business to a SaaS model. And so when you look at that and you go back, say, 1 year, 1.5 years ago, the subscription backlog was probably revenue under contract was kind of $300 million. Now it's moved up to about $350 million. And so there's been a massive shift that we've made over the last 2 to 3 years in that business from immediately recognizing revenue to creating a more sustainable business model. So you don't necessarily see that in the revenue, but there's a major, major transformation happening. And then the final thing I'd say is that, obviously, it's an environment where everybody is watching costs. And we saw it in this last quarter in the digital business from some of our technology clients cutting back on some of the things that they were getting from us, particularly around assessment. So I think those are the factors that I would look to on both a short and medium to long-term basis.

嗯，我認為 - 有幾個短期驅動因素，然後有一些中長期驅動因素。中長期的驅動力圍繞著我們正在構建的技術平台的成功。這是一組圍繞使用我們的開發能力庫等開發技術的知識產權。因此，這是將增加中長期的一個因素。第二個是我們成功地在我們的生態系統中引入合作夥伴來分發我們的 IP。我要提到的第三件事是，當你在數字渠道中觀察我們的銷售人員時，你必須記住，近 30% 的銷售人員在過去 6 到 9 個月內是相對較新的。因此，這些人的成長自然需要時間。我還要指出幾年前我們所做的轉變，但實際上 1.5 年前正在將該業務轉移到 SaaS 模型。因此，當你回顧過去，比如說，1 年、1.5 年前，訂閱積壓可能是合同收入約為 3 億美元。現在它已經上升到大約 3.5 億美元。因此，在過去的 2 到 3 年裡，我們在該業務中發生了巨大轉變，從立即確認收入到創建更可持續的業務模式。所以你不一定會在收入中看到這一點，但正在發生重大的重大轉變。然後我要說的最後一件事是，顯然，這是一個每個人都在關注成本的環境。我們在上個季度的數字業務中看到了這一點，我們的一些技術客戶削減了他們從我們這裡得到的一些東西，尤其是在評估方面。所以我認為這些是我在短期和中長期基礎上都會考慮的因素。

Your next question comes from the line of Tobey Sommer from Truist Securities.

你的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Tobey Sommer。

This is Jasper Bibb on for Tobey. Just two quick clarification questions on the guidance. First is the 4Q guidance, it reflect the full impact of the restructuring program on margin. And then secondly, how much incremental revenue from [Salo] is in the guidance?

這是托比的 Jasper Bibb。關於指南的兩個快速澄清問題。首先是第四季度指引，它反映了重組計劃對利潤率的全面影響。其次，[Salo] 在指導中增加了多少收入？

Bob, why don't you handle the incremental cost. And we're expecting for Salo in the quarter about $30 million of incremental revenue in the fourth quarter.

鮑勃，你為什麼不處理增量成本。我們預計 Salo 在第四季度的收入增量約為 3000 萬美元。

Yes. And then in terms of the guidance, we executed the plan that we talked about on the last earnings call. We spent between taking out positions and reducing our real estate footprint. We spent approximately $51 million we're going to get somewhere in the $50 million to $55 million range for saves. But what we're also forecasting for the fourth quarter is continued moderation in what I would call the exec search in the professional search perm placement business. And that, as you know, is high yielding in terms of the EBITDA margin for us. And so as that continues to decline, that will consume some of the savings. And we're also reinvesting back into the business in terms of fee earners and delivery capacity to meet our client demand as well as we're going to continue to accelerate the investments that we made in -- that we're making into Digital. And so those will net out. And then as the perm placement portion of the business troughs out and then starts to recover, we'll see the margins start to come pop up and come back again.

是的。然後就指導而言，我們執行了我們在上次財報電話會議上談到的計劃。我們在撤出頭寸和減少我們的房地產足蹟之間花了很多錢。我們花費了大約 5100 萬美元，我們將在 5000 萬到 5500 萬美元的範圍內節省開支。但我們對第四季度的預測是專業搜索燙髮業務中我稱之為執行搜索的持續適度。而且，如您所知，就我們的 EBITDA 利潤率而言，這是高收益的。因此，隨著它繼續下降，這將消耗一些儲蓄。我們還在收費和交付能力方面重新投資於業務以滿足我們的客戶需求，我們將繼續加快我們所做的投資——我們正在對數字進行投資。因此，這些將得到淨額。然後隨著業務的燙髮安置部分走出低谷然後開始恢復，我們將看到利潤率開始突然上升並再次回來。

That makes sense. And then on the search consultant productivity, down to $1.4 million this quarter, pretty much in line with pre-COVID levels. If demand continues to soften in that segment, how should we think about managing to a productivity threshold versus keeping capacity for an eventual cyclical rebound?

這就說得通了。然後是搜索顧問的生產力，本季度降至 140 萬美元，與 COVID 之前的水平基本持平。如果該領域的需求繼續疲軟，我們應該如何考慮管理生產率閾值與保持最終週期性反彈的能力？

Well, right now, we're positioned to maintain capacity. And when you look at our consulting business, our digital business, and in the search businesses where our view is to hold capacity. And so it really depends on what happens here with the economy. But the $1.4 million, obviously, if demand falls, that will likely decline. But my orientation right now is to maintain capacity.

好吧，現在，我們準備好保持產能。當您查看我們的諮詢業務、我們的數字業務以及我們認為要保持容量的搜索業務時。因此，這實際上取決於這裡的經濟情況。但是 140 萬美元，顯然，如果需求下降，那很可能會下降。但我現在的方向是保持產能。

Got it. Last one for me. I was hoping you could speak to your long-term EBITDA margin targets. I still think those are feasible, and how should we think about the increased interim exposure via your recent acquisitions, maybe changing the long-term gross margin profile of the business as part of that.

知道了。最後一個給我。我希望你能談談你的長期 EBITDA 利潤率目標。我仍然認為這些是可行的，我們應該如何考慮通過您最近的收購增加的中期風險，也許作為其中的一部分改變業務的長期毛利率狀況。

Yes, it's a great question. I think it -- number one, look, this was a business that didn't exist. And so during the pandemic, we looked around and said, how is the world going to change and (inaudible) professionals wanting more flexibility in their life. And with an aging baby boomer population, maybe people that didn't want to work full time but still want to contribute in meaningful ways to society. And so we very purposefully said let's go into this market. And we've taken that now from basically zero to a run rate now of about $320 million, $330 million in the span of 18 months. This will be, for sure, a $1 billion business for us. There's no question about it. Now as we do that, and we address these bigger markets that I think have proven over time to be less cyclical than, say, the legacy business of Executive Search, the margin profile is going to change. There's no doubt about it. And I can have Bob, Bob you can describe the quantitative impact of that. But if we get this business to $1 billion, which we think we can and everything else were the same, which is not going to stay the same. But if it did, you're probably talking 200 to 300 basis points I would think of a margin shift. But we just -- we really are excited about this. We are seeing incredible levels of cross referrals of ways to create deeper meaning, deeper impact with clients. And so I do think that overall, much like the strategy, when I started, I mean, this is my 84th earnings call. And I'm going back to day 1, the entire business was essentially executive search and now executive search today is 31% of the company. And I think what we've demonstrated now is we've -- we're building a platform that has more client impact that changes more people's lives that enables people and organizations to be more of that. And it also provides a much more stable company for shareholders. And you can just see it in the numbers. And you can see it in the new business over the last several months in terms of what's happening, barring some sort of economic disaster. But Bob, maybe you could comment on the quantitative aspect of the margin.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我認為 - 第一，看，這是一個不存在的業務。因此，在大流行期間，我們環顧四周並說，世界將如何變化，（聽不清）專業人士希望他們的生活更加靈活。隨著嬰兒潮一代人口的老齡化，也許那些不想全職工作但仍希望以有意義的方式為社會做出貢獻的人。所以我們非常有目的地說讓我們進入這個市場。我們現在已經從基本為零到現在的運行率約為 3.2 億美元，在 18 個月的時間里達到 3.3 億美元。這對我們來說肯定是一項價值 10 億美元的業務。毫無疑問。現在，當我們這樣做的時候，我們解決了這些更大的市場，我認為隨著時間的推移，這些市場的周期性低於 Executive Search 的傳統業務，利潤率狀況將會發生變化。毫無疑問。我可以請鮑勃，鮑勃，你可以描述一下它的量化影響。但是，如果我們將這項業務增加到 10 億美元，我們認為我們可以做到，而且其他一切都一樣，這不會保持不變。但如果確實如此，你可能會說 200 到 300 個基點，我會想到利潤率變化。但我們只是 - 我們真的對此感到興奮。我們看到了令人難以置信的交叉推薦方式，以創造更深層次的意義，對客戶產生更深層次的影響。所以我確實認為，總體而言，就像戰略一樣，當我開始時，我的意思是，這是我的第 84 次財報電話會議。我要回到第一天，整個業務基本上都是獵頭，現在獵頭占公司的 31%。而且我認為我們現在已經證明的是我們已經 - 我們正在構建一個平台，該平台具有更大的客戶影響力，可以改變更多人的生活，使人們和組織能夠成為更多人。它還為股東提供了一個更加穩定的公司。你可以在數字中看到它。你可以在過去幾個月的新業務中看到它正在發生的事情，除非出現某種經濟災難。但是鮑勃，也許你可以對利潤率的量化方面發表評論。

Sure. So Jasper, when we buy these businesses, they generally come with about, I would say, around 8% EBITDA margin. And our goal as we go through the integration, as you know, we've got -- have built a company that's kind of plug and play. So we're able to get cost synergies fairly easily just by plugging the acquired companies into our network. And our goal is to take those margins up to the 12% to 15% range over time. And as Gary alluded to, the trade-off in -- for margin for us is the opportunity for growth and the stability that those revenue streams bring to the organization.

當然。所以賈斯珀，當我們購買這些企業時，我想說，它們通常會帶來大約 8% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。我們的目標是通過整合，正如你所知，我們已經建立了一家即插即用的公司。因此，只需將被收購的公司接入我們的網絡，我們就能夠相當輕鬆地獲得成本協同效應。我們的目標是隨著時間的推移將這些利潤率提高到 12% 到 15% 的範圍。正如加里所暗示的那樣，對我們來說，利潤的權衡是這些收入流為組織帶來的增長和穩定性的機會。

Your next question comes from the line of Marc Riddick from Sidoti.

你的下一個問題來自 Sidoti 的 Marc Riddick。

So I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about some of the -- if there were any changes in particular demand drivers, and I'm specifically talking about particular trends that you've noticed maybe over the last few months that have sort of changed or shifted, whether it's from a standpoint of some of the things that were driving demand over the last couple of years. Are there any particular areas that have sort of picked up that maybe we haven't been talking about or thinking about or maybe some things that have waned a bit beyond recessionary impact?

所以我想知道你是否可以談談一些 - 如果特定需求驅動因素有任何變化，我特別談論你可能在過去幾個月中註意到的特定趨勢改變或轉移，無論是從過去幾年推動需求的一些事情的角度來看。是否有任何特定領域已經有所回升，我們可能還沒有討論或考慮過，或者有些事情已經減弱到衰退影響之外？

Well, industrial has certainly been a bright spot, and that's been a change. When I look year-over-year, industrial is up about 10%. So that's certainly -- that's good, considering it's almost 30% of the company's portfolio. Clearly, going back to August of last summer, at the end of last summer, with the move by central banks and particularly the Fed to become more hawkish, companies are clearly looking at their cost. And so there was this massive upswing after the pandemic in terms of hiring. And as you would expect, that is moderated, and that's exactly what we've seen. So we've seen moderation in the perm parts of our recruiting business. Wage growth is -- it's still at elevated levels. It's probably 6%, 7%. People that are jumping jobs are not getting what they were getting coming out of the pandemic. It's more like a 15% uptick in wages. And so that clearly has moderated. And I would expect that, that moderation is going to continue on the perm side, particularly given the comments yesterday or the day before by the Fed. The RPO business is like it always has, I mean, it's held up incredibly well. And yes, we've seen some degradation of the base business, the kind of a nominal amount. Going back to last fall, it was around the technology sector. But we've also picked up some just enormous wins, both in the industrial area and healthcare. And then you look at the consulting and digital business in the quarter, on a constant currency basis, Consulting was up 9%, new business and digital was up 6%. So it's basically -- I mean, it's kind of -- it's really playing out as the strategy was designed. I mean the strategy is absolutely working.

嗯，工業當然是一個亮點，這是一個變化。當我看年復一年時，工業增長了大約 10%。所以這當然 - 這很好，考慮到它幾乎占公司投資組合的 30%。顯然，回到去年夏天的八月，在去年夏天結束時，隨著中央銀行，尤其是美聯儲變得更加鷹派，公司顯然正在考慮他們的成本。因此，在大流行之後，招聘方面出現了大幅上升。正如您所期望的那樣，這是緩和的，這正是我們所看到的。因此，我們在招聘業務的燙髮部分看到了節制。工資增長——它仍然處於較高水平。大概是6%、7%。跳槽的人並沒有從大流行病中得到什麼。這更像是工資上漲 15%。所以這顯然已經緩和了。而且我預計，這種溫和將在 perm 方面繼續，特別是考慮到美聯儲昨天或前一天的評論。 RPO 業務一如既往，我的意思是，它的表現非常好。是的，我們已經看到了基礎業務的一些退化，這是一種名義上的數量。回到去年秋天，它圍繞著技術領域。但我們也在工業領域和醫療保健領域取得了一些巨大的勝利。然後你看看本季度的諮詢和數字業務，在固定匯率的基礎上，諮詢增長了 9%，新業務和數字增長了 6%。所以它基本上 - 我的意思是，它有點 - 它真的在設計戰略時發揮作用。我的意思是該策略絕對有效。

That's really helpful. And then I was sort of curious about -- it seems as though we were starting to see a bit of a pickup in business travel and then maybe starting to see a little bit more face-to-face activity and being in front of clients again. But I would say it seems as though it's kind of -- now that might be the recessionary impact, but that's kind of been back and forth a little bit. I was wondering if you maybe have any thoughts as to maybe what you're seeing? If clients are doing the face-to-face with you a little bit more? Do you see more of a pickup in travel entertainment going forward? Or how should we be thinking about that?

這真的很有幫助。然後我有點好奇——似乎我們開始看到商務旅行有所回升，然後可能開始看到更多的面對面活動並再次出現在客戶面前.但我要說的是，這似乎有點——現在這可能是經濟衰退的影響，但這種情況有點來回迴盪。我想知道你是否對你所看到的有任何想法？如果客戶與您進行更多面對面的交流？您是否看到未來旅遊娛樂業會出現更多增長？或者我們應該如何考慮？

Well, the genie's out of the bottle. And so I think that all of us enjoy the flexibility that, unfortunately, the pandemic brought about. And so when this whole thing started, I said -- 3 years ago, I said this thing, travel, all this stuff, it's going to be -- how you're entertained, how you consume, how you produce, it's going to be about 50% of what it was. Now it's not 50% of what it was. And so clearly, yes, we are seeing a desire for sure. There's no substitute for being in-person with another human being -- but it's not even at the 50% level of what it was. And I think that's a generational change. I mean, that could take 5 to 10 years to truly play out. So it's clearly increased over the last several months, but nothing at all like it was. And then we'll see with "China" setting aside the geopolitical aspect, we'll see what happens with China. It's only been 2, 3, 4 weeks since "it's opened up." China has had an enormous drag on not only multinational companies and in the Asia Pacific region, but also in our business. It's been, as you would expect, it's been drag on the top line. It could be as much as $40 million to $50 million a year for us.

好吧，精靈從瓶子裡出來了。因此，我認為我們所有人都享有不幸的大流行病帶來的靈活性。所以當這一切開始時，我說——3 年前，我說過這件事，旅行，所有這些東西，它會是——你如何娛樂，如何消費，如何生產，它將會大約是原來的 50%。現在它不是原來的 50%。很明顯，是的，我們確實看到了一種渴望。與另一個人面對面交流是無可替代的——但它甚至還不到過去的 50%。我認為這是代際變化。我的意思是，這可能需要 5 到 10 年才能真正發揮作用。所以在過去幾個月裡它明顯增加了，但完全沒有像以前那樣。然後我們將看到“中國”撇開地緣政治方面，我們將看到中國會發生什麼。自“開放”以來僅過去了 2、3、4 週。中國不僅對跨國公司和亞太地區的企業產生了巨大的拖累，而且對我們的業務也產生了巨大的拖累。正如您所料，它一直拖累頂線。對我們來說，每年可能高達 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元。

And Mr. Burnison, it appears there are no further questions.

Burnison 先生，看來沒有其他問題了。

Okay. Well, we appreciate everybody taking the time to listen. And first and foremost, I want to thank our colleagues all around the world for just an incredible performance. And thanks to Bob and Gregg and Tiffany, and we'll talk to you next time. See you. Bye-bye.

好的。好吧，我們感謝大家花時間聆聽。首先，我要感謝我們在世界各地的同事的出色表現。感謝 Bob、Gregg 和 Tiffany，我們下次再談。再見。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this conference will be available for replay for 1 week starting today at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time running through the day March 15, 2023, ending at midnight. You may access the AT&T executive playback service by dialing (866) 207-1041 and entering the access code 703-7839. International participants may dial (402) 970-0847. Additionally, the replay will be available for playback at the company's website. That does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference. You may now disconnect.

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