是德科技 (KEYS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Keysight Technologies Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Sarah, and I will be your lead operator today. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded today, Monday, November 20, 2023, at 1:30 p.m. Pacific Time. I would now like to hand the call over to Jason Kary, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加是德科技 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫莎拉，今天我將成為你們的首席接線生。 （操作員說明）本次通話將於今天（2023 年 11 月 20 日星期一）下午 1:30 進行錄音。太平洋時間。我現在想將電話轉交給財務主管和投資者關係副總裁 Jason Kary。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to Keysight's Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call for fiscal year 2023. Joining me are Keysight's President and CEO, Satish Dhanasekaran, and our CFO, Neil Dougherty. In the Q&A session, we'll be joined by our Chief Customer Officer, Mark Wallace.

感謝並歡迎大家參加是德科技 2023 財年第四季財報電話會議。與我一起參加的是德科技總裁兼執行長 Satish Dhanasekaran 和我們的財務長 Neil Dougherty。在問答環節中，我們的首席客戶長馬克華萊士將參加。

The press release and information to supplement today's discussion are on our website at investor.keysight.com, under Financial Information and Quarterly Reports. Today's comments will refer to non-GAAP financial measures. We will also make reference to core growth, which excludes the impact of currency movements and acquisitions or divestitures completed within the last 12 months. The most directly comparable GAAP financial metrics and reconciliations are on our website, and all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis, unless otherwise noted.

新聞稿和補充今天討論的資訊可在我們的網站 Investor.keysight.com 的「財務資訊和季度報告」下找到。今天的評論將涉及非公認會計準則財務指標。我們還將參考核心成長，其中不包括貨幣變動以及過去 12 個月內完成的收購或剝離的影響。最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標和調整表位於我們的網站上，除非另有說明，所有比較均按年度進行。

We will make forward-looking statements about the financial performance of the company on today's call. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and are only valid as of today. We assume no obligation to update them and encourage you to review our recent SEC filings for a more complete view of these risks and other factors. Lastly, management is scheduled to participate in upcoming investor conferences hosted by Wells Fargo and UBS. And now I will turn the call over to Satish.

我們將在今天的電話會議上對公司的財務表現做出前瞻性陳述。這些聲明存在風險和不確定性，並且僅截至今日有效。我們不承擔更新它們的義務，並鼓勵您查看我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件，以更全面地了解這些風險和其他因素。最後，管理層計劃參加即將由富國銀行和瑞銀主辦的投資者會議。現在我將把電話轉給薩蒂什。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. My comments today will focus on 3 key headlines. First, Keysight reported solid fourth quarter results and finished the year with record revenue, gross margins and operating margin, in what remains a challenging macro environment. Fourth quarter revenue and earnings per share exceeded the high end of our guidance, as orders came in slightly ahead of expectations.

大家下午好，感謝您加入我們。我今天的評論將集中在 3 個關鍵標題上。首先，是德科技公佈了穩健的第四季度業績，並在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境下以創紀錄的收入、毛利率和營業利潤結束了這一年。由於訂單略高於預期，第四季度收入和每股收益超出了我們指導的上限。

For the full year, revenue grew 2% on a core basis and earnings per share increased 9%, while we generated $1.2 billion in free cash flow. Second, our customer engagement on next-generation technology teams remain strong, and we continue to action opportunities, across a broad and diverse set of end markets. Despite the mixed demand environment, as end markets normalize from post-COVID supply demand imbalances over the last 2 years. Third, we're investing both organically and inorganically, to expand our addressable markets and differentiated solutions portfolio, which took other step forward this quarter with the addition of ESI. We remain confident in the long-term secular growth drivers of our business and our ability to address our customers' most challenging and diverse innovation needs.

全年核心營收成長 2%，每股盈餘成長 9%，同時產生 12 億美元的自由現金流。其次，我們的客戶對下一代技術團隊的參與度仍然很高，我們將繼續在廣泛而多樣化的終端市場中抓住機會。儘管需求環境參差不齊，但隨著終端市場從過去兩年新冠疫情後的供需失衡中恢復正常。第三，我們正在進行有機和無機投資，以擴大我們的潛在市場和差異化解決方案組合，隨著 ESI 的加入，本季又向前邁出了一步。我們對業務的長期長期成長動力以及滿足客戶最具挑戰​​性和多樣化創新需求的能力仍然充滿信心。

Now let's begin with a brief overview of Keysight's fourth quarter and full year performance. We're pleased with our results and execution. Fourth quarter orders were $1.3 billion, and we delivered $1.3 billion in revenue and $1.99 in earnings per share. We also generated $340 million in free cash flow and repurchased $426 million of our shares this quarter.

現在讓我們先簡要回顧一下是德科技第四季和全年的業績。我們對我們的結果和執行感到滿意。第四季訂單金額為 13 億美元，我們實現了 13 億美元的營收和 1.99 美元的每股盈餘。本季我們也產生了 3.4 億美元的自由現金流，並回購了 4.26 億美元的股票。

Full year results were strong in a year of normalizing demand. Orders of $5.2 billion were in line with our original expectations of approximately $1.3 billion per quarter this year. We delivered an all-time high of $5.5 billion in revenue and achieved record profitability with gross margins of 66% and operating margins of 30% and $8.33 in earnings per share.

在需求正常化的一年中，全年業績強勁。訂單量為 52 億美元，符合我們今年每季約 13 億美元的最初預期。我們實現了 55 億美元的歷史最高收入，並實現了創紀錄的獲利能力，毛利率為 66%，營業利潤率為 30%，每股收益為 8.33 美元。

Moving to our markets. Overall, the demand dynamics within the quarter, were consistent with our expectations. Aerospace defense and government demand increased, commercial communications was steady and as anticipated, broader manufacturing-related spending in the electronics industrial markets was incrementally softer.

轉向我們的市場。整體而言，本季的需求動態符合我們的預期。航空航太國防和政府需求增加，商業通訊穩定，正如預期的那樣，電子工業市場中與製造相關的支出逐漸疲軟。

Turning to our business segments. Communications Solutions Group revenue declined 10%, aerospace, defense and government grew, while commercial communication markets are rebalancing off of last year's record highs. On a sequential basis, orders grew across both markets.

轉向我們的業務部門。通訊解決方案集團的收入下降了 10%，航空航太、國防和政府部門的收入有所增長，而商業通訊市場正在從去年的創紀錄高點開始重新平衡。從環比來看，兩個市場的訂單均有所成長。

In aerospace, defense and government, revenue grew 4% to an all-time high, we saw healthy order demand from the U.S. and European primes, as well as direct government customers, driven by investments in defense modernization, space and satellite applications. Keysight's leading threat Emulation solutions capabilities drove order growth in the U.S., including a large U.S. Department of Defense win for electromagnetic spectrum operation applications.

在航空航太、國防和政府領域，收入成長了 4%，創歷史新高，在國防現代化、太空和衛星應用投資的推動下，我們看到來自美國和歐洲主要客戶以及直接政府客戶的健康訂單需求。是德科技領先的威脅模擬解決方案能力推動了美國訂單的成長，其中包括美國國防部在電磁頻譜操作應用方面的巨大勝利。

We also saw demand from European primes for our RADAR and phased array antenna solutions to support their delivery goals in 2024 and beyond. The breadth and the depth of our solutions portfolio enable new customer engagements and business in satellite communications 5G and 6G and advanced Quantum research, including a large order from a premier research institute contributing to the record quarter.

我們也看到歐洲主要國家對我們的雷達和相控陣天線解決方案的需求，以支援他們在 2024 年及以後的交付目標。我們解決方案組合的廣度和深度使衛星通訊 5G 和 6G 以及先進量子研究領域的新客戶參與和業務得以實現，其中包括來自頂級研究機構的大訂單，為創紀錄的季度做出了貢獻。

In commercial communications, revenue declined 17%, reflecting ongoing customer spending constraints, as inventories in their markets normalize. Sequentially, we saw stability in wireless orders and incremental strength in demand for network and data center applications. Demand for our Wireline solutions was driven by AI-L and data center expansion, as hyperscalers build infrastructure to handle increasing network and compute workloads. We expect this trend to continue into the next year and beyond.

在商業通訊領域，收入下降了 17%，反映出隨著市場庫存正常化，客戶支出持續受到限制。隨後，我們看到無線訂單的穩定性以及網路和資料中心應用需求的增加。隨著超大規模企業建立基礎設施來處理不斷增加的網路和運算工作負載，AI-L 和資料中心擴展推動了對我們有線解決方案的需求。我們預計這一趨勢將持續到明年及以後。

Enterprise customer business was stable with ongoing investments in network monitoring, driven by increasing data traffic and cybersecurity compliance needs. In Wireless, the progression of standards is driving steady R&D investments in new capabilities and devices, as well as Open RAN and Release 17 features. Our R&D engagements with customers continue to expand.

在不斷增長的資料流量和網路安全合規需求的推動下，企業客戶業務保持穩定，對網路監控進行持續投資。在無線領域，標準的進步正在推動對新功能和設備以及 Open RAN 和 Release 17 功能的穩定研發投資。我們與客戶的研發合作不斷擴大。

This quarter, we enable MediaTek to validate nonterrestrial network connectivity. In addition, Keysight was awarded 2 key U.K. government grants in partnership with universities and leading telecom operators to support open RAN design, testing and deployment in Europe.

本季度，我們協助聯發科技驗證非地面網路連線。此外，是德科技與大學和領先電信營運商合作，獲得了兩項英國政府重要撥款，以支援歐洲的開放 RAN 設計、測試和部署。

Turning to Electronic Industrial Solutions Group. As expected, Q4 orders and revenue were both down compared to record levels of last year. It is important to note that the EISG has shown significantly above long-term expectations with revenue increasing by 30% in 2021, 14% in 2022 and an additional 10% in 2023. This growth was driven by both our differentiated solutions portfolio and an outsized demand from post-COVID recovery and supply constraints.

轉向電子工業解決方案集團。如預期，第四季訂單和收入均較去年創紀錄水準下降。值得注意的是，EISG 的表現明顯高於長期預期，2021 年營收將成長30%，2022 年將成長14%，2023 年將再成長10%。這種成長由我們的差異化解決方案組合和龐大的規模所推動的。疫情後復甦帶來的需求和供應限制。

In the second half of this year, we began to see a normalization from these size, as well as ongoing cautious customer spending. In semiconductor, capital spending for wafer capacity contracted in the quarter, as foundry customers pushed out their new fab investment time lines. We continue to see strong customer engagement for Keysight's proprietary interferometer systems and differentiated R&D solutions for silicon photonics and power semiconductors, reflecting the industry's medium- to long-term recovery and growth expectations.

今年下半年，我們開始看到這些規模正常化，以及客戶支出持續謹慎。在半導體領域，由於代工客戶推遲了新晶圓廠的投資時間表，本季晶圓產能的資本支出有所收縮。我們持續看到客戶對是德科技專有的干涉儀系統以及矽光子和功率半導體的差異化研發解決方案的強烈參與，反映了產業的中長期復甦和成長預期。

In automotive, customer investment in R&D for battery and charging infrastructure continues and is being fueled by increasing competition, regional legislative deadlines and government funding, particularly in Europe and Asia. The funnel of EV opportunities remain strong, while the timing and size of these systems engagements are expected to vary from a quarter-to-quarter.

在汽車領域，客戶對電池和充電基礎設施研發的投資仍在繼續，並且受到日益激烈的競爭、地區立法截止日期和政府資助（特別是在歐洲和亞洲）的推動。電動車機會的漏斗仍然強勁，而這些系統參與的時間和規模預計每季都會有所不同。

In general electronics, we saw steady demand for our solutions in advanced research, industrial automation and digital health. However, and more broadly, manufacturing capacity normalization and cautious spending continued to weigh in on consumer electronics and manufacturing portions of the market. We're watching global PMI and other macroeconomic indicators to gauge the timing of the market recovery.

在通用電子領域，我們看到先進研究、工業自動化和數位健康領域對我們的解決方案的穩定需求。然而，更廣泛地說，製造能力正常化和謹慎支出繼續影響消費性電子產品和製造市場的部分。我們正在關注全球 PMI 和其他宏觀經濟指標，以衡量市場復甦的時機。

As an integral part of our solution strategy, software and services revenue growth this year continue to outpace Keysight overall. The recurring portion of software and services grew 9% this year, driving total annual recurring revenue to approximately $1.3 billion or 23% of total revenue, an increase of 200 basis points, year-over-year.

作為我們解決方案策略不可或缺的一部分，今年軟體和服務收入的成長持續超過是德科技的整體成長。軟體和服務的經常性部分今年增長了 9%，使年度經常性收入總額達到約 13 億美元，佔總收入的 23%，同比增長 200 個基點。

In early November, ahead of schedule, we announced our acquisition of a controlling block of shares of ESI Group. The addition of ESI, further increases our software and annual recurring revenue expands our addressable markets and strengthens our strategy of moving upstream into earlier stages of our customers' design cycles. We continue to invest prudently to capitalize on our long-term growth opportunities. In parallel, we remain disciplined and are taking additional targeted cost actions to streamline operations and ensure strong financial performance.

11月初，我們提前宣布收購ESI集團控股權。 ESI 的加入進一步增加了我們的軟體和年度經常性收入，擴大了我們的潛在市場，並加強了我們向上游進入客戶設計週期早期階段的策略。我們繼續謹慎投資，以利用我們的長期成長機會。同時，我們仍然遵守紀律，並正在採取額外的有針對性的成本行動，以簡化營運並確保強勁的財務表現。

In wrapping up my first full year, as the CEO of Keysight, I'd like to thank our employees for their outstanding contributions, commitment and strong track record of execution in these tough market conditions. The strength of Keysight's differentiated solutions, the diversity of our end markets and the durability of our business model, all position us well for continued market outperformance, as we enter the new fiscal year. With that, I'll turn it over to Neil to discuss our financial performance and outlook.

在結束我作為德科技執行長的第一個完整年度時，我要感謝我們的員工在當前嚴峻的市場條件下做出的傑出貢獻、奉獻精神和良好的執行記錄。是德科技差異化解決方案的優勢、終端市場的多樣性以及業務模式的持久性，都為我們在進入新財年時保持市場領先地位奠定了基礎。接下來，我將把它交給尼爾來討論我們的財務表現和前景。

Thank you, Satish, and hello, everyone. Fourth quarter revenue of $1.311 billion was just above the high end of our guidance range and down 9% or 10%, on a core basis. Orders of $1.327 billion declined 16% on both a reported and core basis.

謝謝薩蒂什，大家好。第四季營收為 13.11 億美元，略高於我們指引範圍的上限，但核心收入下降了 9% 或 10%。報告訂單和核心訂單均下降 16%，達 13.27 億美元。

Similar to the third quarter, demand in China was muted and accounted for roughly 1/3 of the year-over-year order decline. We ended the quarter with $2.3 billion in backlog. Looking at our operational results for Q4, we reported gross margin of 65%, an increase of 130 basis points, year-over-year and operating expenses of $474 million, resulting in operating margin of 29%.

與第三季類似，中國的需求疲軟，約佔訂單年減的 1/3。本季末，我們的積壓訂單達到 23 億美元。從我們第四季的營運表現來看，我們的毛利率為 65%，年成長 130 個基點，營運費用為 4.74 億美元，營運利潤率為 29%。

We achieved net income of $352 million and delivered earnings of $1.99 per share. Our weighted average share count for the quarter was 177 million shares. Moving to the performance of our segments. Our Communications Solutions Group generated revenue of $891 million, down 10% on a reported and core basis. Commercial Communications revenue of $568 million, declined 17% and while aerospace, defense and government revenue of $323 million was up 4%, driven by increasing defense budgets and investments in technology modernization.

我們實現淨利 3.52 億美元，每股收益 1.99 美元。本季我們的加權平均股數為 1.77 億股。轉向我們細分市場的表現。我們的通訊解決方案集團的收入為 8.91 億美元，按報告和核心收入下降 10%。商業通訊收入為 5.68 億美元，下降 17%，而航空航太、國防和政府收入為 3.23 億美元，成長 4%，這主要得益於國防預算和技術現代化投資的增加。

Altogether, CSG delivered gross margin of 68% and operating margin of 29%. The Electronic Industrial Solutions Group generated revenue of $420 million, down 7%, as reported or 8% on a core basis. EISG reported gross margin of 61% and operating margin of 30%.

整體而言，南玻集團的毛利率為 68%，營業利益率為 29%。電子工業解決方案集團的收入為 4.2 億美元，據報告下降 7%，核心收入下降 8%。 EISG 報告毛利率為 61%，營業利益率為 30%。

Turning to our full year financial performance. Keysight delivered strong results, despite demand and foreign exchange headwinds. Full year 2023 revenue grew 1% as reported or 2% on a core basis to a record $5.464 billion. Gross margin of 66% expanded 80 basis points. We invested $842 million in R&D, while operating margin improved 90 basis points to 30%.

轉向我們全年的財務表現。儘管面臨需求和外匯不利因素，是德科技仍取得了強勁的業績。 2023 年全年營收按報告成長 1%，核心營收成長 2%，達到創紀錄的 54.64 億美元。毛利率擴大80個基點至66%。我們在研發方面投資了 8.42 億美元，營業利潤率提高了 90 個基點，達到 30%。

The flexibility of our cost structure and actions that we've taken to further reduce costs, drove FY '23 net income to a record $1.5 billion, resulting in earnings per share of $8.33, which was up 9%. Moving to the balance sheet and cash flow. We ended the fourth quarter with $2.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, generating cash flow from operations of $378 million and free cash flow of $340 million.

我們靈活的成本結構以及為進一步降低成本而採取的行動，推動 23 財年淨利潤達到創紀錄的 15 億美元，每股收益達到 8.33 美元，增長 9%。轉向資產負債表和現金流量。在第四季結束時，我們的現金和現金等價物為 25 億美元，營運現金流為 3.78 億美元，自由現金流為 3.4 億美元。

Total free cash flow for the year was $1.212 billion, representing 22% of revenue and 81% of non-GAAP net income. Share repurchases this quarter totaled 3,270 000 shares, at an average price per share of approximately $130. For a total consideration of $426 million. This brings our total share repurchases for the year to 4.9 million shares, at an average share price of approximately $143 for a total consideration of $702 million or 58% of free cash flow.

全年自由現金流總額為 12.12 億美元，佔營收的 22%，佔非 GAAP 淨利潤的 81%。本季股票回購總量為 3,270,000 股，每股平均價格約為 130 美元。總代價為4.26億美元。這使得我們今年回購的股票總數達到 490 萬股，平均股價約為 143 美元，總代價為 7.02 億美元，佔自由現金流的 58%。

Now turning to our outlook. Looking forward to fiscal year '24, we expect the demand environment in the first half to remain mixed, and we'll be closely watching for signs of recovery in the second half. Going forward, we will report results including ESI, which is expected to be slightly dilutive to earnings on the full year. Given the timing of annual contract renewals, ESI typically recognizes 40% to 45% of their full year revenue in Keysight's fiscal first quarter, with the balance recognized relatively evenly over the remainder of the year.

現在轉向我們的展望。展望24財年，我們預計上半年的需求環境將持續複雜化，我們將密切關注下半年的復甦跡象。展望未來，我們將報告包括ESI在內的業績，預計將略微稀釋全年收益。考慮到年度合約續約的時間，ESI 通常會在是德科技第一財季確認全年收入的 40% 至 45%，其餘時間則相對均勻地確認餘額。

Also, due to GAAP accounting rules, ESI earnings recognition will be proportional to our shareholding, until all shares are acquired. With the normalization of backlog over the past year, our Q1 guidance is based on; one, existing backlog that is scheduled to ship this quarter; two, our view of incoming Q1 orders and three, our ability to turn a portion of those incoming orders into revenue within the quarter.

此外，根據 GAAP 會計規則，ESI 收益確認將與我們的持股比例成正比，直到收購所有股份。隨著過去一年積壓的正常化，我們第一季的指導是基於：一、現有積壓訂單，計畫本季出貨；第二，我們對第一季收到的訂單的看法；第三，我們在本季將部分收到的訂單轉化為收入的能力。

We now expect first quarter revenue to be in the range of $1.235 billion to $1.255 billion and in Q1 our earnings per share in the range of $1.53 to $1.59, based on a weighted diluted share count of approximately 176 million shares. This guidance includes approximately $60 million in ESI revenue and an EPS impact of approximately $0.05 from ESI net income.

目前，我們預計第一季營收將在 12.35 億美元至 12.55 億美元之間，基於約 1.76 億股的加權稀釋股數，第一季每股收益將在 1.53 美元至 1.59 美元之間。該指引包括約 6000 萬美元的 ESI 收入以及 ESI 淨利潤對 EPS 的影響約 0.05 美元。

Now I would like to highlight a few modeling items for FY '24. As I just mentioned, we are modeling a significant sequential decrease in ESI revenue in Q2 and over the same period, we expect a low single-digit increase in core Keysight revenue. Excluding ESI, FY '24 operating expenses are expected to be flat to slightly down year-over-year, reflecting the structural flexibility of our business model and the cost actions we have initiated.

現在我想重點介紹 24 財年的一些造型項目。正如我剛才提到的，我們正在對第二季度 ESI 收入的顯著連續下降進行建模，而在同一時期，我們預計是德科技核心收入將出現低個位數成長。不包括 ESI，24 財年營運費用預計將同比持平或略有下降，反映了我們業務模式的結構靈活性以及我們已採取的成本行動。

With the addition of ESI, we expect FY '24 R&D investment to be 17% of revenue. Annual interest expense is expected to be approximately $80 million. Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $150 million, and we are modeling a 17% non-GAAP effective tax rate for FY '24.

加上 ESI，我們預計 24 財年研發投資將佔營收的 17%。年利息支出預計約8000萬美元。資本支出預計約為 1.5 億美元，我們正在對 24 財年 17% 的非 GAAP 有效稅率進行建模。

In closing, Keysight's flexible cost structure, track record for execution, diverse end markets and long-term secular growth drivers give us confidence in our ability to outperform, even in challenging market conditions. With that, I will now turn it back to Jason for the Q&A.

最後，是德科技靈活的成本結構、良好的執行記錄、多元化的終端市場和長期的長期成長動力，讓我們對自己的表現充滿信心，即使在充滿挑戰的市場條件下也是如此。現在，我將把它轉回傑森進行問答。

Thank you, Neil. Sarah, will you please give the instructions for the Q&A?

謝謝你，尼爾。莎拉，請您給問答的說明好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Meta Marshall with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指令）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Meta Marshall。

Maybe first question, you guys talked about kind of an overperformance of EISG or how well that business had done over the last couple of years. Just trying to get a sense of is there a period, where you think kind of represents, the run rate of that business just as we think of the growth of that business going forward?

也許第一個問題，你們談到了 EISG 的超額表現，或者該業務在過去幾年中的表現如何。只是想了解是否有一個時期，您認為在這個時期代表了該業務的運作率，就像我們認為該業務未來的成長一樣？

And then maybe just the second question, just on the Communications business. You guys have mentioned kind of seeing stabilization in that business. So I just wanted to kind of clarify that none of the weakness that you are seeing has kind of spread to more of the lab testing that it's largely kind of stayed on the production side?

然後也許只是第二個問題，關於通訊業務。你們提到了該業務的穩定。所以我只是想澄清一下，您所看到的弱點都沒有擴散到更多的實驗室測試中，而是很大程度上停留在生產方面？

Thank you, Meta. Absolutely. The EISG business, as we have said, the long-term market growth rates, 4% to 6% and our goal is to beat it. And the business, obviously, has been performing significantly above that for a prolonged period of time. And that's really a function of the differentiated positions, we have, almost unique positions in some -- with some customers across these end markets that they serve.

謝謝你，梅塔。絕對地。正如我們所說，EISG業務的長期市場成長率為4%到6%，我們的目標是超越它。顯然，該業務的表現在很長一段時間內一直明顯高於該水平。這實際上是差異化定位的一個功能，我們在某些​​領域擁有幾乎獨特的定位——在他們所服務的這些終端市場上有一些客戶。

And it's also been a focus for us to continue to diversify the company. And with regard to the commercial comps business, we saw sequential order improvement between Q4 relative to Q3. And again, that's stability in wireless, continued stability now for a few quarters in wireless, especially with 5G. And again, that is a function of the R&D holding up much better, and we're still awaiting a recovery in manufacturing.

持續實現公司多元化也是我們的重點。關於商業比較業務，我們看到第四季相對於第三季的順序訂單有所改善。再說一次，這就是無線領域的穩定性，無線領域現在已經持續了幾個季度的穩定性，尤其是 5G。再說一遍，這是研發保持得更好的結果，我們仍在等待製造業的復甦。

And then we saw some signs of recovery in our wired part of the ecosystem, again, driven by, what appears to be a sustained push to invest in AI/ML/data center infrastructure by the cloud/hyperscalers.

然後，我們在生態系統的有線部分看到了一些復甦的跡象，這再次受到雲端/超大規模企業對人工智慧/機器學習/資料中心基礎設施投資的持續推動的推動。

Next question comes from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess for my first one, so just to clarify the comments around seasonality that you had, particularly now including the acquisition. I think what you're, I guess, guiding to is a sequential decline into the April quarter and that is the trough in terms of revenues.

我想是我的第一個，所以只是為了澄清您對季節性的評論，特別是現在包括收購。我認為你所引導的是四月季度的連續下降，這是收入的低谷。

And when you think about the sort of back half of the year, how do you think about seasonality from 2Q onwards? Should we be thinking about sort of the typical seasonal increases that you see? Just any clarification in terms of, if I put in those comments correctly? And I have a follow-up.

當您考慮今年下半年的情況時，您如何看待第二季度以後的季節性？我們是否應該考慮您所看到的典型季節性成長？如果我正確地添加了這些評論，請澄清一下？我有一個後續行動。

Yes. So I do think you interpreted the comments correctly. I think as we move from Q1 to Q2, we do expect a low single-digit increase in core Keysight. But ESI, as we mentioned, because of the timing of their contract renewals, recognized as a disproportionate portion of their revenue in Keysight's first quarter, 40% to 45% with the balance 55% to 60%, spread roughly evenly over the subsequent 3 quarters.

是的。所以我確實認為你正確地解釋了這些評論。我認為，當我們從第一季進入第二季時，我們確實預期核心是德科技將出現低個位數的成長。但正如我們所提到的，ESI 由於合約續約的時間安排，在是德科技第一季的收入中所佔的比例不成比例，為40% 至45%，其餘為55% 至60%，在接下來的3 個季度中大致平均分佈。宿舍。

So there is a significant drop off on the ESI side of things, just given the timing of those contractual renewals. I think, obviously, we're taking this 1 quarter at a time, given the normalization that we're seeing in the marketplace. I do think that over time, we expect the seasonality on the Keysight business to return more towards historic norms, than what we've seen over the last couple of years, as a result of the supply chain disruptions, but we'll have to wait and see how that develops as we move forward.

因此，考慮到這些合約續約的時間，ESI 方面的情況就出現了顯著下降。我認為，顯然，考慮到我們在市場上看到的正常化，我們一次只考慮一個季度。我確實認為，隨著時間的推移，由於供應鏈中斷，我們預計是德科技業務的季節性將比我們過去幾年所看到的更接近歷史正常水平，但我們必須拭目以待，看看隨著我們的前進，情況會如何發展。

Okay. And just in terms of the -- how to think about margins for this year, just a lot of puts and takes. I know you had some comments earlier about, I think last quarter, it was about sort of a 10% revenue decline is where we should expect 200 to 250 basis points of margin deterioration in the operating margin side, but you now have the acquisition, which is probably a bit diluted, but you also have taken cost actions. So can you just give us an updated framework on how to think about margins for the year, particularly given all the puts and takes?

好的。就如何考慮今年的利潤率而言，有很多看跌期權。我知道你之前有過一些評論，我認為上個季度，收入下降了 10%，我們應該預計營業利潤率會下降 200 到 250 個基點，但你現在進行了收購，這可能有點稀釋，但你也採取了成本行動。那麼，您能否為我們提供一個更新的框架，說明如何考慮今年的利潤率，特別是考慮到所有的看跌期權和賣出期權？

Yes. So we've shared the same essentially, model describing kind of demand normalization here, really since our spin. And that's a model that says, if our revenues are down 10%, then we would expect operating margins to be down 300 to 400 basis points in that scenario. That's obviously pre any acquisition activity. So when you think about layering in ESI, obviously, it's a public company, you can look at their results.

是的。因此，自從我們旋轉以來，我們在這裡共享了本質上相同的描述需求標準化的模型。這個模型表明，如果我們的收入下降 10%，那麼我們預計在這種情況下營業利潤率將下降 300 到 400 個基點。這顯然是在任何收購活動之前進行的。因此，當你考慮 ESI 的分層時，顯然它是一家上市公司，你可以看看他們的結果。

At this point, we only own half the shares. It's going to take us a while to get to full ownership. So I think you can layer in ESI in the short run, much as they were running as an independent company. And once we get to full ownership, we'll be able to really set our minds on cost reduction within that space -- synergy realization.

此時，我們只擁有一半的股票。我們需要一段時間才能獲得完全所有權。所以我認為你可以在短期內加入 ESI，就像他們作為一家獨立公司運作一樣。一旦我們獲得完全所有權，我們將能夠真正下定決心在該領域內降低成本——實現協同效應。

Our next question comes from Rob Mason with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rob Mason 和 Baird。

Last quarter, we talked about a surge in some of these longer-dated orders year-to-date. I'm just curious as you wrapped up the year where the total sum of those came in relative to last year? And then do you have any perspective on how those would start to be converted to revenue? Are those 2024 revenue events? Or are we looking more out into 2025?

上個季度，我們談到了今年迄今一些長期訂單的激增。我只是很好奇，當你結束這一年時，這些總和與去年相比是多少？那麼您對如何將這些轉化為收入有什麼看法嗎？這些是 2024 年的收入事件嗎？還是我們對 2025 年有更多的展望？

Yes. So first of all, as we said last quarter, they were about 8% of orders to date, and that's where they finished. So Q4 was on par with the first 3 quarters of the year, and that compared to we're like 2% as a historic run rate. The majority of that revenue will be in '24, although there is a portion, a sizable portion that pushes out into '25.

是的。首先，正如我們上季度所說，迄今為止，它們約佔訂單的 8%，這就是它們完成的地方。因此，第四季與今年前三個季度持平，而相較之下，我們的歷史運作率約為 2%。大部分收入將在 24 年實現，儘管有一部分，相當大的一部分會推遲到 25 年。

And is -- just for clarification, is that likely to show up in the EISG segment or in the CSG segment?

澄清一下，這是否可能出現在 EISG 部門或 CSG 部門？

It's a mix. I think earlier in the year, those orders skewed towards EISG, not surprising with the strength in aerospace, defense and government fiscal year-end. In the fourth quarter, they were more skewed towards aerospace, defense end market. So really, it's a mix.

這是一個混合。我認為今年早些時候，這些訂單偏向 EISG，這對於航空航天、國防和政府財年末的強勁勢頭來說並不奇怪。第四季度，他們更偏向航空航太、國防終端市場。所以說真的，這是一個混合體。

Very good. And just as a final question, if I could. Just do you have any sense as to what a reasonable time line should be to come complete the entirety of the ESI acquisition, the squeeze-out process?

非常好。最後一個問題，如果可以的話。您是否知道完成整個 ESI 收購（擠出過程）的合理時間表應該是多少？

Yes. It really depends on what happens during this tender offer process, which again, we expect to complete the tender in the calendar first quarter. I think if we do that, then we'll move immediately and that goes as expected, we'll move immediately to a squeeze out that I think would have us complete in mid-year. There are scenarios, where if less than the required number of people get to tender, where it will take us a little bit longer to meet the appropriate thresholds to essentially do the squeeze-out process.

是的。這實際上取決於本次要約收購過程中發生的情況，我們再次預計將在日曆第一季完成招標。我認為如果我們這樣做，那麼我們將立即採取行動，正如預期的那樣，我們將立即採取行動，我認為這將使我們在年中完成。在某些情況下，如果參與投標的人數少於所需人數，我們將需要更長的時間才能達到適當的門檻，從而基本上完成擠出過程。

Our next question comes from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

Yes. I want to go back to the prior question on kind of the longer backlog metric. I think last quarter, you talked about that being $200 million. Is that -- I know you said 8% of orders, but is that still that -- roughly that number which should be on top of the $2.3 billion or so total backlog you came out of exiting this last quarter?

是的。我想回到之前關於較長積壓指標的問題。我想上個季度，您談到了 2 億美元。我知道您說的是 8% 的訂單，但這仍然是這個數字嗎？大約是在您上個季度退出的 23 億美元左右的積壓訂單總額之上的那個數字嗎？

Well, the numbers are included in the backlog, right? And so if you take our order rate for the year about 8%. So you get to somewhere around $400 million of longer-dated backlog, orders with longer-dated backlog that we took within the year. Obviously, some of that -- if we took a 10-month order in Q1, it would have shipped here at the tail end of '23, but you can that view that most of that $400 million is sitting in our backlog here, as we enter fiscal '24.

嗯，這些數字包含在積壓的訂單中，對嗎？因此，如果我們今年的訂單率約為 8%。因此，您將獲得約 4 億美元的較長期積壓訂單，即我們在一年內收到的較長期積壓訂單。顯然，其中一些 - 如果我們在第一季收到一份 10 個月的訂單，它將在 23 年末發貨，但您可以看到，這 4 億美元中的大部分都積壓在我們這裡，因為我們進入24 財年。

And to be clear, that will -- typically, your backlog was a 6-month forward number. It sounds like a majority of that would be recognized in the back half of the fiscal year. Is that a fair assessment?

需要明確的是，通常情況下，您的積壓訂單是 6 個月的遠期數量。聽起來大部分將在本財年後半段得到確認。這是一個公平的評價嗎？

I'm just thinking, as we've received those orders all throughout the year. And so again, there is -- there are a couple of large-scale projects that pushed out into '25, where we'll get kind of lump sum revenue recognition. It probably has a back half skew though for the portion that's in '24, I would say there's a back half skew, for sure.

我只是在想，因為我們全年都會收到這些訂單。再說一次，有幾個大型專案被推到了 25 年，我們將獲得一次性收入確認。它可能有後半部傾斜，但對於 24 年的部分，我會說肯定有後半部傾斜。

Okay. Perfect. And then the real quick follow-up is, could you talk a little bit about what you're seeing on wireline with regard to AI? Just maybe flesh out exactly where you're involved? Because it seems like that is -- clearly, as we move towards possibly Ethernet and 800 gig, it seems like that would be inflecting. I'm just curious to how Keysight's involved in that?

好的。完美的。然後真正的快速跟進是，您能談談您在有線電視上看到的有關人工智慧的情況嗎？也許只是具體說明你所涉及的地方？因為顯然，當我們向乙太網路和 800 gig 邁進時，這似乎會發生變化。我只是好奇是德科技如何參與其中？

Yes. Thank you. I think as we talked about, our commercial comms business is diversified with exposure into both wireless and wireline parts of the ecosystem. For the wireline parts of the ecosystem, we're obviously tethered to computing, networking, being the core end markets. And what we're starting to see is some signs to the compute markets are starting to stabilize, after a period of inventory digestion that was underway.

是的。謝謝。我認為正如我們所討論的，我們的商業通訊業務多元化，涉足生態系統的無線和有線部分。對於生態系統的有線部分，我們顯然與運算、網路相關，它們是核心終端市場。我們開始看到，在經過一段時間的庫存消化之後，計算市場開始穩定的一些跡象。

But equally, there is some incremental spend that's occurring driven by cloud and hyperscalers, who are pretty serious about upgrading that infrastructure. And so that's manifesting itself in manufacturing test for our transceiver test business. It's also manifesting itself in increased spend that we saw this quarter for 800 gig and also terabit Ethernet solutions. And so we're quite pleased with the sequential uptick we've seen. Again, one quarter doesn't make a trend, but I think we're encouraged by the progression that we've seen on the Wireline side.

但同樣，雲端運算和超大規模企業正在推動一些增量支出，他們非常認真地升級基礎設施。這在我們的收發器測試業務的製造測試中得到了體現。這也體現在我們本季看到的 800 GB 和太比特乙太網路解決方案支出的增加。因此，我們對所看到的連續上升感到非常滿意。同樣，四分之一並不能形成趨勢，但我認為我們對有線的進展感到鼓舞。

Our next question comes from Chris Snyder with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·史奈德。

So orders came in up about 7% sequentially. I think it was the best order quarter number for fiscal '23. And I understand there's seasonality involved, but can you maybe just talk about, where orders have improved versus 3 to 6 months ago, versus maybe where you've seen continued softening in orders versus 3 to 6 months ago? And then specifically for the AI/ML and the data center infrastructure, could you size how big that AI/ML related business is today, whether it's on orders or revenue?

因此訂單量比上一季成長了約 7%。我認為這是 23 財年最好的季度訂單數。我知道這涉及季節性，但您能否談談與 3 至 6 個月前相比，哪些訂單有所改善，哪些訂單可能與 3 至 6 個月前相比持續疲軟？然後，特別是針對人工智慧/機器學習和資料中心基礎設施，您能否估算一下如今人工智慧/機器學習相關業務的規模有多大，無論是訂單還是收入？

Yes, maybe at the highest level, I would just say, we got a sequential improvement, I would say, in orders from our aerospace defense business, which was strong. Obviously, the year-end is typically what we expect. We saw that for commercial communications, sequential growth, stability in wireless/5G and a sequential uptick in our wired part of the ecosystem.

是的，也許在最高層面上，我想說的是，我們在航空航天國防業務的訂單方面取得了連續的改進，該業務非常強勁。顯然，年底通常是我們所期望的。我們看到，對於商業通訊而言，無線/5G 的連續成長、穩定性以及生態系統的有線部分的連續上升。

And what we anticipated also was, we would see some softness in the EISG business, particularly with Asia and China, and we did experience that. Now again, to put it in context, the EISG business is just later in undergoing this demand normalization. And so that was what we had sort of forecasted, and so it behaved as we expected.

我們也預計，我們會看到 EISG 業務出現一些疲軟，特別是在亞洲和中國，我們確實經歷了這一點。現在，再次將其放在上下文中，EISG 業務剛剛經歷了這種需求正常化。這就是我們的預測，所以它的表現也符合我們的預期。

With regard to the wireline ecosystem, I just go back to our long-term growth rate expectations for the communications business in general and say that we see a business that is diversified, where multiple technology waves are overlapping. And that gives us inherent stability and resilience, and we're pleased by some of the progression we're seeing in the AI/ML spend, because we've been working with customers on this for some time now. And we expect that as more of the network traffic is driven by applications that are coming out for AI/ML, this will become a bigger part of our business. I'll just maybe hand it off to Mark to make some comments on orders.

關於有線生態系統，我只是回到我們對整個通訊業務的長期成長率預期，並說我們看到了一個多元化的業務，其中多種技術浪潮重疊。這給了我們固有的穩定性和彈性，我們對人工智慧/機器學習支出的一些進展感到高興，因為我們已經與客戶在這方面合作了一段時間。我們預計，隨著越來越多的網路流量由人工智慧/機器學習應用程式驅動，這將成為我們業務的重要組成部分。我可能會把它交給馬克，讓他對訂單發表一些評論。

Yes, thanks. Chris, I'll just a few color comments to what Satish stitched here. And then it really begins with all of our customers, still remaining very active in their R&D projects. And we see that in our funnel in terms of new funnel intake, which has been very positive. And our ability to convert that remains high, although as we've said for the last several quarters, some of this long-dated backlog and then customers taking a bit more time to make these decisions as have been a factor as well.

對了謝謝。克里斯，我將對薩蒂什在這裡縫製的內容進行一些顏色評論。然後它真正開始於我們所有的客戶，他們仍然非常積極地參與他們的研發專案。我們在漏斗中看到了新漏斗攝取量，這是非常正面的。我們的轉換能力仍然很高，儘管正如我們在過去幾個季度所說的那樣，一些長期積壓以及客戶花費更多時間做出這些決定也是一個因素。

I'm also seeing stabilization in the indirect businesses, some of the inventories in our distributors normalize, and I'm very pleased with our e-commerce business, which continues to be strongly adopted. We saw about a doubling of business through that -- through that channel. And in total, we continue to add new customers, more than 2,000 during the course of the last year, and about 300 of those came through e-commerce. So there's some positive elements of what we've seen in the fourth quarter.

我還看到間接業務的穩定，我們經銷商的一些庫存恢復正常，我對我們的電子商務業務非常滿意，該業務繼續受到大力採用。我們看到，透過這個管道，業務量翻了一番。總的來說，我們不斷增加新客戶，去年超過 2,000 個，其中約 300 個來自電子商務。因此，我們在第四季度看到了一些積極的因素。

I appreciate that. And then for my follow-up, I guess maybe more of a modeling question. For the revenue, Q1 revenue guide, the $1.245 billion at the midpoint, does that include $60 million from ESI implying about $1.285 billion at the midpoint for organic Keysight. Because it seems to be a pretty sharp fall off versus the $1.327 billion orders we just got.

我很感激。然後對於我的後續行動，我想可能更多的是一個建模問題。就收入而言，第一季收入指南中位數 12.45 億美元，其中包括來自 ESI 的 6,000 萬美元，這意味著是德科技的中位數收入約為 12.85 億美元。因為與我們剛剛收到的 13.27 億美元訂單相比，這似乎大幅下降。

Yes. $1.185 billion, not $1.285 billion, but your math is correct. $1.245 billion, less $60 million gets you to $1.185 billion for core Keysight. And what we've typically seen is on the order side is a high single-digit sequential decline as we move from Q4 into Q1. And I think given the normalization, that we're currently seeing, particularly in EISG, we expect a sequential decline this year to be a little bit larger than historical average. And so that's -- and again, with orders and revenue converging, that's how you can think about getting to that $1.185 billion for core Keysight.

是的。 11.85 億美元，不是 12.85 億美元，但你的數學是正確的。 12.45 億美元，減去 6,000 萬美元，是德科技的核心資產就達到了 11.85 億美元。我們通常看到的是，當我們從第四季度進入第一季時，訂單方面出現了較高的個位數連續下降。我認為，鑑於我們目前看到的正常化，特別是在 EISG 方面，我們預計今年的環比下降幅度將略大於歷史平均值。因此，隨著訂單和收入的趨同，您可以考慮如何讓是德科技的核心業務達到 11.85 億美元。

Our next question comes from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的馬克·德萊尼。

A question on commercial comms. And do you think the company can get back to the historical highs in the commercial comms segment, in terms of revenue from a resumption in 5G alone? Or do you think you would need some contribution from things like 800 gig and 6G in order to get there?

關於商業通訊的問題。您認為僅從 5G 恢復的收入來看，該公司能否回到商業通訊領域的歷史高點？或者您認為需要 800 gig 和 6G 等方面的貢獻才能實現這一目標？

Yes. Thank you, Mark. Absolutely, we are confident in the long-term outlook for the business, I outlined at Investor Day the several overlapping themes of technology waves that are playing out across end markets. And our view remains solid with that. In fact, as we engage with customers even through this time, where the spend has been lower, customers are intensely focused on higher priority R&D programs.

是的。謝謝你，馬克。當然，我們對業務的長期前景充滿信心，我在投資者日概述了終端市場上正在出現的技術浪潮的幾個重疊主題。我們的觀點仍然堅定不移。事實上，即使在支出較低的這段時間，當我們與客戶互動時，客戶也非常關注更高優先順序的研發項目。

And so that strategic view has not changed for us. Obviously, there is this current demand normalization that's occurring after fiscal '21 and '22, where we had outsized order growth in the business. And so post normalization, we are remaining confident in our ability to continue to grow the business, because of these multiple ways of technology across both wired and wireless ecosystem.

因此，我們的策略觀點並沒有改變。顯然，目前的需求正常化是在 21 財年和 22 財年之後發生的，當時我們的業務訂單大幅成長。因此，在正常化之後，我們對繼續發展業務的能力仍然充滿信心，因為有線和無線生態系統中的技術有多種方式。

That's helpful. And other question on the competitive landscape with one of your competitors having recently been acquired. Have you seen any change in the opportunities in terms of new business wins or any changes on the competitive front that you would point out?

這很有幫助。另一個問題是關於您的競爭對手最近被收購的競爭格局。您是否看到了新業務獲勝方面的機會發生了任何變化，或者您指出的競爭方面發生了任何變化？

Yes. No, we remain active in all of the markets that we serve. The automotive market, in particular, continues to be quite robust with many customers investing in long-term EV projects, which we continue to engage with. So no, we've not seen any change since any recent announcements.

是的。不，我們在我們服務的所有市場中仍然保持活躍。特別是汽車市場仍然相當強勁，許多客戶投資於長期電動車項目，我們將繼續參與其中。所以，自從最近的公告以來，我們沒有看到任何變化。

Our next question comes from Adam Thalhimer with Thompson, Davis.

我們的下一個問題來自亞當·塔爾希默和湯普森·戴維斯。

Congrats on the strong Q4. Can you give a little more color into what is going on in China and whether you're seeing any green shoots there?

恭喜第四季表現強勁。您能否進一步介紹中國正在發生的事情以及您是否看到了任何復甦的跡象？

Yes. Thank you. I'll have Mark make some comments, but thank you, we're pleased with the execution and the operational performance of the business in fiscal '23. Our engagements in China with customers remain strong, but I'll have Mark make some comments about end market.

是的。謝謝。我會讓馬克發表一些評論，但謝謝您，我們對 23 財年業務的執行和營運績效感到滿意。我們在中國與客戶的合作依然強勁，但我會讓馬克對終端市場發表一些評論。

Yes. Our business in China remains very diverse. We did see softer demand in Q4 and in the second half. And actually, our business in China held up relatively strong in the first half, especially from the EISG standpoint.

是的。我們在中國的業務仍然非常多元化。我們確實看到第四季和下半年的需求疲軟。事實上，我們在中國的業務上半年表現相對強勁，尤其是從 EISG 的角度來看。

But there is incremental weakness in manufacturing and in semiconductor, and we expect that to continue for the next couple of quarters. Where I see the activity is around the areas that we have remained focused on high-speed digital, optical, auto and EV and AE and opportunities for mature semiconductor technologies continue there as well.

但製造業和半導體產業逐漸疲軟，我們預計這種情況將在未來幾季持續下去。我看到的活動圍繞著我們仍然關注的高速數位、光學、汽車、電動車和自動駕駛領域，成熟的半導體技術的機會也在這些領域繼續存在。

I also think we've derisked quite a bit of the trade impact that we've been experiencing for the last several years. We'll watch that carefully. It's been fairly status quo, I would say, for the last couple of quarters. And if we do see some moderation to the demand normalization on the manufacturing side, I think we'll be very well positioned when that happens.

我還認為，我們已經消除了過去幾年所經歷的相當一部分貿易影響的風險。我們會仔細觀察。我想說，過去幾個季度，情況基本上維持現狀。如果我們確實看到製造方面的需求正常化有所緩和，我認為當這種情況發生時我們將處於非常有利的位置。

Our next question comes from out of Atif Malik with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

The first one for Satish, you guys are seeing stability in 5G market, maybe restocking in China smartphones. And it sounds like you're optimistic about second half of next year. Is it possible for you to provide us a few milestones on the next 5G standards and maybe earlier rollout of 6G that we should be looking forward to for next year?

Satish 的第一個建議是，你們看到了 5G 市場的穩定，中國智慧型手機可能會重新進貨。聽起來您對明年下半年很樂觀。您能否為我們提供有關下一個 5G 標準的一些里程碑，以及我們明年應該期待的 6G 的提前推出？

Yes. Thank you. I think at the highest level, the things, that I watch for are the continued progression, the smartphone industry is making in inventory reductions, right, that's been talked about for chips and final device form factors. So that's one thing we watch.

是的。謝謝。我認為在最高層面上，我關注的是智慧型手機產業的持續進步，即庫存減少，對，這已經討論過晶片和最終設備的外形尺寸。這是我們關注的一件事。

Obviously, when we think about the 5G standards progression, what we're seeing so far is increased interest from customers in Open RAN, even in our 5G business this year, Mark and team have added new customers to our already strong mix of installed base customers. So our leadership position continues to remain strong and we're continuing to remain differentiated with our portfolio, which is very broad and caters to the need of the entire ecosystem.

顯然，當我們考慮5G 標準的進展時，到目前為止，我們看到的是客戶對Open RAN 的興趣增加，即使在今年的5G 業務中，Mark 和團隊也為我們已經強大的安裝基礎組合增加了新客戶顧客。因此，我們的領導地位繼續保持強勁，我們的產品組合繼續保持差異化，該產品組合非常廣泛，可以滿足整個生態系統的需求。

The area that has also gained a lot of importance, as we went through the last year, has been the non-terrestrial networks so the satellite cases with 5G. And we're also seeing some interesting new use cases associated with Release 17 and the research interest across the globe to build organic IP in what comes beyond 5G has already kicked off and Keysight continues to play an early role in partnering with these customers.

正如我們去年所經歷的那樣，非地面網路以及 5G 衛星案例也變得非常重要。我們也看到與版本 17 相關的一些有趣的新用例，以及全球範圍內構建 5G 之外的有機 IP 的研究興趣已經開始，是德科技將繼續在與這些客戶的合作中發揮早期作用。

So when we look at our investment priorities. Yes, we're investing in R&D, and we're focused on that -- focusing that investment around these next-generation themes. Which will continue to enable us to be strong and grow the business over the long run at the rates that we've put out at Investor Day.

因此，當我們考慮投資重點時。是的，我們正在投資研發，而且我們的重點是——將投資集中在這些下一代主題上。從長遠來看，這將繼續使我們保持強大並以我們在投資者日公佈的速度發展業務。

Great. And then a follow-up for Neil. Neil, you talked about orders down high single digits, in the January quarter because of EISG being down more than historical average. And you're pointing to an April quarter revenue trough because of ESI seasonality. Should we be thinking about orders recovering in the April quarter or coming down with that revenue decline?

偉大的。然後是尼爾的後續行動。尼爾，您談到一月份季度的訂單下降了高個位數，因為 EISG 下降幅度超過了歷史平均水平。由於 ESI 季節性，您指出 4 月季度的收入低谷。我們應該考慮訂單在四月季度恢復還是隨著收入下降而下降？

On core Keysight, we would typically see a sequential increase, as you move from Q1 to Q2. I think we'll need to wait for some time to pass, but to give you a sense of how that increase is going to compare to historic norms. But typically, you would see a Q1 to Q2 increase. And I think based on everything we see at this point, that's what we expect.

在核心是德科技上，當您從第一季轉向第二季時，我們通常會看到連續成長。我認為我們需要等待一段時間才能過去，但為了讓您了解與歷史正常水平相比，這種增長將如何。但通常情況下，您會看到第一季到第二季的成長。我認為根據我們目前所看到的一切，這就是我們所期望的。

Our next question comes from Matthew Niknam with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matthew Niknam。

I have one follow-up to a prior question and one other one for Neil. In terms of the follow-up. So we're talking about a softer than seasonal outlook for core Keys, stripping out that 60-ish million from ESI in fiscal 1Q. Is that primarily EISG i.e., are their expectations for more relative stability to sustain in comms and some of the strength to persist in ADG?

我有一個先前問題的後續解答，還有一個是給尼爾的。從後續來看。因此，我們談論的是核心Keys的比季節性前景更疲軟的前景，從第一財季的ESI中剔除掉約6000萬美元。這主要是 EISG 嗎？即，他們是否期望在通訊方面維持更多的相對穩定性，並在 ADG 中保持一些優勢？

So more just sort of unpacking that outlook for fiscal 1Q, across the segments? And then maybe for Neil, you're talking about CapEx of about $150 million. I think at the Analyst Day, it was around a $225 million mark for fiscal '24. I'm just wondering what's changed?

那麼更多的是對第一財季各細分市場的前景進行分析嗎？然後，對於 Neil 來說，您談論的資本支出可能約為 1.5 億美元。我認為在分析師日，24 財年的銷售額約為 2.25 億美元。我只是想知道發生了什麼變化？

Yes. So on the first question regarding the seasonality, I think you have it mostly right. I think we're experiencing incremental softness in EISG and then a lot of that is in China and Asia. And that's what we're attributing to the slightly expected higher seasonal decrease throughout in Q4 to Q1. And then the second.

是的。因此，關於第一個問題，關於季節性，我認為你說得基本上正確。我認為我們正在經歷 EISG 的逐漸疲軟，其中很大一部分是在中國和亞洲。這就是我們將第四季至第一季季節性下降幅度略高於預期的原因歸因於。然後是第二個。

Yes. On the CapEx, I mean, obviously, the business has been softer this year than we expected. And so when you think about investments in capacity and those types of things, we have either canceled in many cases or delayed other programs in response to the current macro environment. Which is resulting in the reduced expectations for CapEx going forward in '24.

是的。在資本支出方面，我的意思是，顯然，今年的業務比我們預期的要軟。因此，當你考慮產能投資和此類事情時，為了應對當前的宏觀環境，我們在許多情況下取消或推遲了其他計劃。這導致對 24 年未來資本支出的預期降低。

Our next question comes from Tim Long with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的蒂姆·朗。

Two, if I could. First, on the wireline side, could you talk a little bit more specifically about optical kind of what you're seeing there? Where are we in cycle, it's been a little bit more challenged with some of the companies in the ecosystem.

兩個，如果可以的話。首先，在有線方面，您能否更具體地說明您在那裡看到的光學類型？我們處於週期的哪個階段，生態系統中的一些公司面臨更大的挑戰。

So if you could just talk about what you're kind of seeing on the physical test side, as well as Ixia. And then, just the second one on the defense automation business. It seems to be continuing rolling along really strong. Could you talk a little bit about sustainability of that kind of defense line, over the next multiple quarters?

因此，您能否談談您在物理測試方面以及 Ixia 方面看到的情況。然後，這是關於國防自動化業務的第二個。它似乎繼續強勁地向前滾動。您能否談談在接下來的多個季度中這種防線的可持續性？

Yes. Thank you. Sure. I'd say we've always believed that strategically, having both the physical and protocol and having a leadership position across both is an advantage, and we'll see that play out at this point, especially as the challenges migrate between SerDes and the optical side and the electrical side and our ability to connect the dots for our customers is an advantage for us, and we're able to monetize the advantage.

是的。謝謝。當然。我想說的是，我們一直相信，從戰略上講，同時擁有物理和協議並在兩者上都處於領先地位是一種優勢，我們將看到這一點在這一點上發揮作用，特別是當挑戰在SerDes 和光學方面和電氣方面以及我們為客戶連接點的能力對我們來說是一個優勢，我們能夠將這種優勢貨幣化。

I would say 400 gig Ethernet still continues to be the predominant investment standard with customers shifting priority to 800 terabit and beyond, from a research perspective or development perspective, and we're able to engage across that entire life cycle. Which has caused the sequential uptick we see. And we also see some of that. I'll have Mark make some comments on the funnel of opportunities as we look ahead.

我想說，從研究角度或開發角度來看，400 GB 乙太網路仍然是主要的投資標準，客戶將優先級轉向 800 Tb 及以上，而且我們能夠參與整個生命週期。這導致了我們看到的連續上升。我們也看到了其中的一些。在我們展望未來時，我會讓馬克對機會漏斗發表一些評論。

On the defense side of the business, again, not only in the U.S. but across the globe, the increased spending in technology investments in aerospace and defense is a trend that's playing out. In the U.S., I would say the prime contractors have been referencing growth in backlog and growth in orders. And I think all of that, we've seen a stronger uptick, I should say, in the aerospace, defense business, in the most recent quarter. But equally, that bodes well for 2024.

在國防業務方面，不僅在美國，而且在全球範圍內，航空航太和國防技術投資支出的增加已成為一種趨勢。在美國，我想說，主承包商一直在參考積壓訂單的成長和訂單的成長。我認為所有這些，我應該說，在最近一個季度，我們在航空航太、國防業務中看到了更強勁的成長。但同樣，這對 2024 年來說是個好兆頭。

Obviously, we watch the defense budget getting passed because that's an important milestone for that business. But I think given the bipartisan support that exists, we can be reasonably confident about the outlook for aerospace and defense in fiscal '24. I'll have Mark make some comments.

顯然，我們看到國防預算獲得通過，因為這對該業務來說是一個重要的里程碑。但我認為，鑑於兩黨的支持，我們對 24 財年航空航太和國防的前景充滿信心。我會讓馬克發表一些評論。

Yes. There's not much to add. Satish covered it well. But what we've seen is this pattern of R&D and manufacturing on the wireline side. And we saw an uptick in 800 gigabit manufacturing spend for optical transceivers, feeding into network build-out and data center upgrades. So we saw a sequential improvement and the funnel would support that continuing.

是的。沒什麼好補充的。薩蒂什很好地涵蓋了這一點。但我們看到的是有線側的這種研發和製造模式。我們看到光收發器的 800 Gb 製造支出增加，用於網路擴建和資料中心升級。因此，我們看到了連續的改進，漏斗將支援這種持續的改進。

We saw AI server and GPU infrastructure testing also on the physical side. So there's some demand growth there. And as you pointed out, our broader portfolio in protocol solutions was reflected in some of our network visibility growth, particularly from enterprise customers. So these are all strengths that we were able to capture during Q4.

我們還看到了實體方面的 AI 伺服器和 GPU 基礎設施測試。所以那裡的需求有所增加。正如您所指出的，我們在協議解決方案方面更廣泛的產品組合反映在我們的一些網路可見度成長中，特別是來自企業客戶的成長。因此，這些都是我們在第四季所能捕捉到的優勢。

Our next question comes from David Ridley-Lane with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 David Ridley-Lane。

Really quick question on the margins. If I'm understanding sort of the seasonality comments on the ESI group, that's actually should be very modest, but it should be a tailwind to margins in the first quarter? So I completely understand the revenue guidance, but is there anything onetime that's implied in the first quarter margin?

非常快速的邊緣問題。如果我理解對 ESI 集團的季節性評論，這實際上應該非常溫和，但它應該是第一季利潤率的推動力？因此，我完全理解收入指引，但第一季利潤率是否暗示了什麼？

You should be able to bridge from the Q4 results that we just put up to the Q1 guide, even if you adjust for the ESI, really with 2 bridging items. The first is the increase in the tax rate from 12% to 17%. And the second is the implied reduction in revenue, right, which we just talked about, goes from $1.311 billion to $1.185 billion so about $125 million reduction in revenue should be sufficient to bridge the delta.

即使您針對 ESI 進行調整，您也應該能夠從我們剛剛提供的 Q4 結果過渡到 Q1 指南，實際上有 2 個橋接項目。首先是稅率從12%提高到17%。第二個是隱含的收入減少，我們剛才談到，從 13.11 億美元減少到 11.85 億美元，因此大約 1.25 億美元的收入減少應該足以彌補這一增量。

Okay. And then for the full year, I know there were several project pushouts in semiconductors and other areas, maybe more broadly in China. But could you size sort of the full year impact of orders in fiscal '23, from those kind of project pushouts. And then look, it's always uncertain, but if the construction time line has stayed intact, should we expect sort of a similar magnitude to show up in fiscal '24?

好的。然後在全年中，我知道在半導體和其他領域（也許更廣泛地在中國）有幾個項目推出。但您能否衡量一下 23 財年訂單對全年的影響（這些項目推出的影響）？然後看，它總是不確定的，但如果施工時間表保持不變，我們是否應該期望在 24 財年出現類似的規模？

I'm not sure I follow your question. If people are pushing out and we have confidence that they're ultimately going to take delivery of product, generally speaking, we leave those orders on the books.

我不確定我是否明白你的問題。如果人們正在退出，我們有信心他們最終會收到產品，那麼一般來說，我們會將這些訂單保留在帳上。

Are you speaking about semi specifically with fabs? Is that...

您是專門針對晶圓廠談半成品嗎？就是它...

It was revenue and so if it was an order that's tied to a semi fab, where the construction itself got pushed, that status orders, and you would just recognize the revenue later.

這是收入，所以如果它是與半晶圓廠相關的訂單，其中建設本身被推動，那麼狀態訂單，你稍後就會確認收入。

So you're talking about where deliveries got pushed out of 3 -- out of '23 and '24 and beyond?

所以你說的是交付量從 23 年、24 年及以後的 3 年被推遲的情況？

Correct.

正確的。

Yes. So on semi specifically, I think there's 2 factors. One is the forward-looking demand, some of that has been pushed out because of delays in the fabs. And then the second part is delays of backlog. And I think you characterized it right going into late '24 and early '25.

是的。所以具體來說，我認為有兩個因素。一是前瞻性需求，其中一些由於晶圓廠的延誤而被推遲。第二部分是積壓的延遲。我認為你在 24 世紀末和 25 年初就描述了這一點。

That concludes our Q&A session for today. I would like to now turn the call back to Jason Kary for any closing remarks.

我們今天的問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回賈森·卡里（Jason Kary），請他發表結束語。

Thank you, Sarah, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. Just to wrap up the call, I'll turn it over to Satish, and over to you.

謝謝莎拉，也謝謝大家加入我們。為了結束這通通話，我將把它轉給薩蒂什，然後轉給你。

Thank you, Jason. I want to thank all our shareholders for your support of Keysight. And I want to let you know, we remain incredibly confident in our future, and we're continuing to invest for growth around next-generation technology teams, which have strong customer validation.

謝謝你，傑森。我要感謝所有股東對是德科技的支持。我想讓你們知道，我們對未來仍然充滿信心，我們將繼續圍繞下一代技術團隊進行投資，以實現成長，這些團隊得到了強大的客戶認可。

While doing so, we're also prudent in our spending and maintaining a strong discipline from an operating perspective factoring in the current environment. And finally, we're also very confident in the free cash flow position of the business, and you've seen us in the most recent quarter, buy back over 100% of our free cash flow in our own shares, given the valuation at this time. Thank you very much, and hope you have a good rest of your day.

同時，考慮到當前環境，我們在支出方面也保持謹慎，並從營運角度保持嚴格的紀律。最後，我們對公司的自由現金流狀況也非常有信心，而且你已經看到我們在最近一個季度回購了我們自己股票中 100% 以上的自由現金流，考慮到估值為這次。非常感謝您，希望您今天休息愉快。

That concludes our conference call. You may now disconnect your lines.

我們的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。