Kirby Corp (KEX) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Kirby Corporation 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Kurt Niemietz, Kirby's VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 Kirby Corporation 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議轉交給 Kirby 投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管 Kurt Niemietz 先生。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining the Kirby Corporation 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. With me today are David Grzebinski, Kirby's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Raj Kumar, Kirby's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. A slide presentation for today's conference call as well as the Earnings Release, which was issued earlier today can be found on our website.

早安，感謝您參加 Kirby Corporation 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有 Kirby 總裁兼執行長 David Grzebinski；以及 Kirby 執行副總裁兼財務長 Raj Kumar。今天的電話會議的幻燈片演示以及今天早些時候發布的收益報告可以在我們的網站上找到。

During this conference call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our Earnings Press Release and are also available on our website in the Investor Relations section under Financials. As a reminder, statements contained in this conference call with respect to the future are forward-looking statements. These statements reflect management's reasonable judgment with respect to future events. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated as a result of various factors. A list of these risk factors can be found in Kirby's latest Form 10-K filing and in our other filings made with the SEC from time to time.

在本次電話會議期間，我們可能會提及某些非公認會計原則或調整後的財務指標。非公認會計原則財務指標與最直接可比較的公認會計原則財務指標的調節表包含在我們的收益新聞稿中，也可以在我們網站的「投資者關係」部分的「財務」部分中找到。提醒一下，本次電話會議中包含的有關未來的聲明均為前瞻性聲明。這些陳述反映了管理階層對未來事件的合理判斷。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，由於各種因素，我們的實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。這些風險因素的清單可以在 Kirby 最新的 10-K 表格文件以及我們不時向 SEC 提交的其他文件中找到。

With that, I will now turn the call over to David.

現在，我將把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Kurt, and good morning, everyone. Earlier today, we announced fourth quarter revenue of $799 million and earnings per share of $1.04. This compares to 2022, fourth quarter revenue of $730 million and earnings per share of $0.62. During the fourth quarter, continued strong fundamentals in both our businesses resulted in significant year-over-year growth in our revenue and earnings. In Marine Transportation, pricing on spot and term contracts benefited from strong demand and limited availability of barges, while the onset of winter weather conditions proved to be a headwind to our efficiency in the quarter.

謝謝你，庫爾特，大家早安。今天早些時候，我們宣布第四季營收為 7.99 億美元，每股收益為 1.04 美元。相比之下，2022 年第四季營收為 7.3 億美元，每股收益為 0.62 美元。第四季度，我們兩項業務持續強勁的基本面導致我們的營收和利潤同比大幅成長。在海運方面，現貨和定期合約的定價受益於強勁的需求和有限的駁船供應，而事實證明，冬季天氣條件的出現對我們本季的效率構成了不利影響。

Distribution and Services delivered higher revenues sequentially, but margins were down slightly from the third quarter as a result of lower demand in our Power Rental business and typical seasonal impact. We ended the year on a good note, and we anticipate strong growth in 2024. In Inland Marine, we continue to experience strong demand and high barge utilization with our barge utilization rates in the low 90% range. Spot market prices continue to push higher, and we were up in the low to mid-single digits sequentially and then mid-teens year-over-year.

配電和服務部門的收入連續增加，但由於我們的電力租賃業務需求下降和典型的季節性影響，利潤率較第三季略有下降。我們以良好的業績結束了這一年，我們預計 2024 年將出現強勁增長。在內陸海事領域，我們繼續經歷強勁的需求和高駁船利用率，駁船利用率處於 90% 的低水平。現貨市場價格持續走高，連續上漲至個位數中低位，然後年增至十幾位左右。

Pricing increases on term contract renewals were up year-over-year on average in the high single digits during the quarter. While the efficiency of our operations was challenged during the quarter with delay days up 86% sequentially, strong pricing and utilization mostly offset this, allowing for Inland Marine margins to remain flat sequentially with operating margins remaining in the high teens on average.

本季度，定期合約續約的價格平均年增幅為高個位數。雖然我們的營運效率在本季受到了挑戰，延誤天數比上一季增加了86%，但強勁的定價和利用率基本上抵消了這一影響，使得內陸海運利潤率繼續保持持平，營運利潤率平均維持在十幾歲左右。

In our Coastal marine business, we saw consistent customer demand during the fourth quarter that helped maintain barge utilization in the low to mid-90% range. Overall, Coastal marine revenues were up 4% sequentially, as improved spot and term contract pricing more than offset planned maintenance and ballast water treatment installations, which reduced equipment availability. As a result, the Coastal business was able to finish the year with operating margins in the low single digits for the quarter.

在我們的沿海海運業務中，我們在第四季度看到了持續的客戶需求，這有助於將駁船利用率維持在 90% 的中低範圍內。總體而言，沿海海運收入環比增長了 4%，因為現貨和定期合約定價的改善抵消了計劃的維護和壓載水處理裝置的影響，從而降低了設備的可用性。結果，沿海業務在本季度的營業利潤率處於較低的個位數的情況下完成了今年的工作。

In Distribution and Services, demand in the fourth quarter remained steady throughout much of the segment, marked by a sequential increase in revenues, increases in new orders and steady backlog. In Oil and Gas, revenues and operating income were up sequentially and year-over-year, as solid execution on our backlog and deliveries were partially offset by lingering supply chain delays.

在分銷和服務領域，第四季度大部分細分市場的需求保持穩定，其特徵是收入連續成長、新訂單增加和積壓穩定。在石油和天然氣領域，收入和營業收入環比和同比增長，因為我們積壓訂單和交付的紮實執行被長期存在的供應鏈延誤部分抵消。

In Commercial and Industrial, while revenues were up sequentially, the seasonal falloff in our Power Rentals business led to a sequential decline in operating income. Despite supply chain issues and seasonal weaknesses -- weakness, the business segment overall concluded the year very strong. Overall, segment revenues were up 13% year-over-year and operating margins were in the high single digits. In summary, our fourth quarter results reflected ongoing strength in market conditions for both segments. Despite the temporary headwinds of seasonal winter weather in the quarter, the Inland market is strong and rates continue to push higher, helping to offset lingering inflation.

在商業和工業領域，雖然收入環比增長，但電力租賃業務的季節性下滑導致營業收入環比下降。儘管存在供應鏈問題和季節性疲軟，但該業務部門今年整體表現非常強勁。整體而言，分部營收年增 13%，營業利潤率處於高個位數。總之，我們第四季的業績反映了這兩個細分市場市場狀況的持續強勁。儘管本季季節性冬季天氣暫時不利，但內陸市場依然強勁，利率持續走高，有助於抵銷揮之不去的通膨。

While our Coastal revenue was challenged near term by planned shipyards, industry-wide supply and demand dynamics remain very favorable. Our utilization is good, and we are realizing healthy rate increases. Steady demand in Distribution and Services is contributing to further growth in the segment. And while supply chain bottlenecks are expected, the outlook for the market is stable. I'll talk more about our 2024 outlook later. But first, I'll turn the call over to Raj to discuss the fourth quarter segment results and balance sheet in more detail.

雖然我們的沿海收入近期受到計劃造船廠的挑戰，但整個行業的供需動態仍然非常有利。我們的利用率良好，我們正在實現健康的利用率成長。分銷和服務的穩定需求有助於該領域的進一步成長。儘管預計會出現供應鏈瓶頸，但市場前景穩定。稍後我將詳細討論我們的 2024 年展望。但首先，我將把電話轉給 Raj，更詳細地討論第四季的部門績效和資產負債表。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Marine Transportation segment revenues were $453 million and operating income was $68 million with an operating margin of 15%. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, total Marine revenues increased by $30 million or 7% and operating income increased $21 million or 46%. Increased pricing and utilization in the Inland market were partially offset by weather-related inefficiencies and coastal shipyards.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。 2023年第四季，海運部門營收為4.53億美元，營業收入為6,800萬美元，營業利益率為15%。與 2022 年第四季相比，海事總收入增加了 3,000 萬美元，即 7%，營業收入增加了 2,100 萬美元，即 46%。內陸市場定價和利用率的提高被天氣相關的低效率和沿海造船廠部分抵消。

Compared to the third quarter of 2023, Total Marine revenues, Inland and Coastal together, increased 5%, while operating income increased by 7%. Now looking at the Inland business in more detail. The Inland business contributed approximately 82% of segment revenue. Average barge utilization was in the low 90% range for the quarter. Long-term Inland Marine Transportation contracts, or those contracts with a term of 1 year or longer, contributed approximately 60% of revenue, with 62% from time charters and 38% from contracts of affreightment.

與 2023 年第三季相比，海洋總收入（內陸和沿海）成長了 5%，營業收入成長了 7%。現在更詳細地了解內陸業務。內陸業務貢獻了約82%的分部收入。本季駁船平均利用率處於 90% 的低水準。長期內陸海運合同，或期限為 1 年或以上的合同，貢獻了約 60% 的收入，其中 62% 來自期租合同，38% 來自貨運合同。

Tight market conditions contributed to spot market rates increasing sequentially in the low to mid-single digits and in the mid-teens range year-over-year. Term contracts that renewed during the fourth quarter were on average up in the high single digits compared to the prior year. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, Inland revenues increased by 11%, primarily due to higher term and spot contract pricing. Inland revenues were up 6% compared to the third quarter of 2023, due to higher pricing and the reopening of the Illinois River locks.

緊張的市場狀況導致現貨市場利率逐年上漲至中個位數和中雙位數。與去年同期相比，第四季續約的定期合約平均呈現高個位數成長。與 2022 年第四季相比，內陸收入成長了 11%，主要是由於定期和現貨合約定價較高。由於定價上漲和伊利諾伊州河閘重新開放，內陸收入較 2023 年第三季成長 6%。

While Inland operating margins remained on average in the high teens, we did exit at 20% in the final month of the quarter. Now moving to the Coastal business. Coastal revenues decreased 7% year-over-year and were up 4% sequentially, as downtime from planned shipyards was partially offset by higher contract pricing. Overall, Coastal had low single-digit operating margins as improved pricing was partially offset by increased shipyard pace. The Coastal business represented 18% of revenues for the Marine Transportation segment.

雖然內陸營運利潤率平均維持在十幾歲左右，但我們在本季最後一個月確實以 20% 的速度退出。現在轉向沿海業務。沿海收入年減 7%，環比增長 4%，因為計劃中的造船廠停工被較高的合約定價部分抵消。總體而言，沿海公司的營業利潤率較低，為個位數，因為造船廠步伐的加快部分抵消了定價的改善。沿海業務佔海運部門收入的 18%。

Average coastal barge utilization was in the mid-90% range, which was in line with the fourth quarter of 2022. During the quarter, the percentage of Coastal revenue under term contracts was approximately 95%, of which approximately 94% were time charters. Average spot market rates were up in the mid-single digits sequentially and in the mid-30% range year-over-year, and prices on term contract renewals were up in the 20% range year-over-year.

沿海駁船的平均利用率在 90% 左右，與 2022 年第四季的情況一致。本季度，沿海駁船的定期合約收入百分比約為 95%，其中約 94% 為期租約。現貨市場平均費率連續上漲中個位數，年增 30% 左右，定期合約續約價格年增 20% 左右。

With respect to our tank barge fleet for both the Inland and Coastal businesses, we have provided a reconciliation of the changes in the fourth quarter, as well as projections for 2024. This is included in our earnings call presentation posted on our website. At the end of the fourth quarter, the Inland fleet had 1,076 barges, representing 23.7 million barrels of capacity. On a net basis, we currently expect to end 2024 with a total of 1,078 Inland barges, representing 23.8 million barrels of capacity, driven by a modest number of additions in the year.

關於我們內陸和沿海業務的油罐駁船隊，我們提供了第四季度的變化調節表以及 2024 年的預測。這包含在我們網站上發布的收益電話會議演示文稿中。截至第四季末，內陸船隊擁有駁船 1,076 艘，運力 2,370 萬桶。從淨值來看，我們目前預計到 2024 年底，內陸駁船總數將達到 1,078 艘，運力將達到 2,380 萬桶，這是由於年內新增數量適度所致。

Now I'll review the performance of the Distribution and Services segment. Revenues for the fourth quarter of 2023 were $347 million with operating income of $29 million and an operating margin of around 8%. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, the Distribution and Services segment saw revenues increase by $39.2 million or 13%, with operating income increasing by $11.6 million or 68%. When compared to the third quarter of 2023, revenues increased by $12 million or 3% and operating income decreased by $4.5 million or 14%, with the decline in margins related to product mix.

現在我將回顧分銷和服務部門的表現。 2023年第四季營收為3.47億美元，營業收入為2,900萬美元，營業利潤率約8%。與 2022 年第四季相比，分銷和服務部門的收入增加了 3,920 萬美元，即 13%，營業收入增加了 1,160 萬美元，即 68%。與 2023 年第三季相比，收入增加了 1,200 萬美元，即 3%，營業收入減少了 450 萬美元，即 14%，與產品組合相關的利潤率下降。

On the Commercial and Industrial markets, strong activity contributed to a 24% year-over-year and 5% sequential increase in revenues with improved demand for equipment, parts and service in our marine repair and on-highway businesses. Power generation was also up year-over-year. Overall, the Commercial and Industrial business represented approximately 64% of segment revenue and had an operating margin in the mid- to high single digits in the fourth quarter.

在商業和工業市場，由於我們的船舶維修和公路業務對設備、零件和服務的需求增加，強勁的活動導致收入同比增長 24%，環比增長 5%。發電量也較去年同期成長。整體而言，第四季商業和工業業務約佔部門收入的 64%，營業利潤率處於中高個位數。

In the Oil and Gas market, revenues were down 3% year-over-year and up 2% sequentially, as solid execution on our backlog was partially offset by lingering supply chain delays. While we saw slowing trends in our conventional remanufacturing business, we experienced continued favorable trends in new orders and backlog driven by our e-frac units and associated power generation equipment. Overall, Oil and Gas represented approximately 36% of segment revenue in the fourth quarter and had operating margins in the low double digits.

在石油和天然氣市場，營收年減 3%，季增 2%，因為積壓訂單的紮實執行被長期的供應鏈延誤部分抵消。雖然我們的傳統再製造業務呈現放緩趨勢，但在我們的電子壓裂裝置和相關發電設備的推動下，我們的新訂單和積壓訂單持續呈現有利趨勢。總體而言，第四季石油和天然氣業務約佔該部門收入的 36%，營業利潤率僅為兩位數。

Now I'll turn to the balance sheet. As of December 31, 2023, we had $33 million of cash with total debt of around $1 billion. During the quarter, we decreased our debt balances by $51 million, and our debt-to-cap ratio improved to 24.2%. We achieved cash flow from operating activities of $216 million for the quarter. We used cash flow and cash on hand to fund $127 million of capital expenditure or CapEx, of which $56 million was related to maintenance of equipment and the remainder was directed to growth CapEx in Marine and e-frac.

現在我將轉向資產負債表。截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 3,300 萬美元現金，總債務約 10 億美元。本季度，我們的債務餘額減少了 5,100 萬美元，債務上限比率提高至 24.2%。本季我們的經營活動現金流量為 2.16 億美元。我們利用現金流和手頭現金為 1.27 億美元的資本支出或資本支出提供資金，其中 5,600 萬美元用於設備維護，其餘用於船舶和電子壓裂領域的資本支出成長。

We continue to return capital to shareholders in the quarter and repurchased $52 million of stock, at an average price of $77.8. As of December 31, we had total available liquidity of approximately $491 million. For 2024, we expect to generate cash flow from operations of $600 million to $700 million on higher revenues and EBITDA. We still see supply chain constraints posing some headwinds to managing working capital in the near term.

本季我們繼續向股東返還資本，並以 77.8 美元的平均價格回購了 5,200 萬美元的股票。截至 12 月 31 日，我們可用的流動資金總額約為 4.91 億美元。到 2024 年，我們預計營運現金流將在收入和 EBITDA 增加的情況下產生 6 億至 7 億美元。我們仍認為供應鏈限制對短期內的營運資本管理構成一些阻力。

Having said that, we expect to unwind most of this working capital, as orders shipped, as 2024 progresses and beyond. With respect to CapEx, we expect capital spending to range between $290 million and $330 million for the year. Approximately $190 million to $240 million is associated with marine maintenance capital and improvements to existing Inland and Coastal Marine equipment, including the remaining ballast water treatment system on some coastal vessels and some facility improvements. Up to approximately $90 million is associated with growth capital spending in both of our businesses.

話雖如此，隨著 2024 年及以後的進展，隨著訂單的發貨，我們預計將釋放大部分營運資金。就資本支出而言，我們預計今年的資本支出將在 2.9 億美元至 3.3 億美元之間。大約1.9億至2.4億美元用於海洋維護資本以及現有內陸和沿海海洋設備的改進，包括一些沿海船舶上剩餘的壓載水處理系統和一些設施改進。我們兩項業務的成長資本支出高達約 9,000 萬美元。

The net result should provide approximately $300 million of free cash flow for the year. We are committed to a balanced capital allocation approach and will use this cash flow to opportunistically return capital to shareholders and continue to pursue long-term value-creating niche investment and acquisition opportunities. I will now turn the call back to David to discuss the remainder of our outlook for 2024.

最終結果應為本年度提供約 3 億美元的自由現金流。我們致力於平衡的資本配置方法，並將利用這些現金流機會性地向股東返還資本，並繼續尋求長期創造價值的利基投資和收購機會。現在我將把電話轉回給 David，討論我們對 2024 年展望的其餘部分。

Thank you, Raj. We had a good quarter in both our businesses, despite some temporary headwinds. Refinery activity remains at high levels. Our barge utilization is strong in both Inland and Coastal, and rates are steadily increasing. While we expect typical seasonal weather conditions to post some near-term headwinds in the first quarter and some high shipyard activity in our Coastal business, our outlook in the Marine segment remains strong for the full year.

謝謝你，拉傑。儘管存在一些暫時的阻力，但我們的兩項業務都取得了良好的季度業績。煉油廠活動仍處於高水準。我們的駁船利用率在內陸和沿海地區都很強勁，而且費率正在穩定成長。雖然我們預計典型的季節性天氣條件將在第一季帶來一些近期阻力，並且我們的沿海業務的造船廠活動會有所增加，但我們對全年船舶業務的前景仍然強勁。

In Distribution and Services, despite supply chain constraints that we've discussed, demand for our products and services is good, and we continue to receive new orders. Overall, we expect our businesses to deliver improved financial results in 2024. While all this is encouraging, we are mindful of challenges related to a slowing global economy and additional economic weakness due to interest rates. However, even with these uncertainties, we remain very positive and expect to drive strong earnings and strong cash flow from operations going forward.

在分銷和服務方面，儘管我們已經討論了供應鏈的限制，但對我們的產品和服務的需求良好，並且我們繼續收到新訂單。總體而言，我們預計我們的業務將在 2024 年實現更好的財務表現。儘管這一切令人鼓舞，但我們也注意到與全球經濟放緩以及利率導致的額外經濟疲軟相關的挑戰。然而，即使存在這些不確定性，我們仍然非常樂觀，並預計未來將推動強勁的盈利和強勁的營運現金流。

In Inland Marine, our 2024 outlook anticipates positive market dynamics with tight conditions due to limited new barge construction in the industry and many units going in for maintenance, combined with steady customer demand. With these market conditions, we expect our barge utilization rates to be in the low to mid-90% range throughout the year. Overall, Inland revenues are expected to grow in the mid- to high single-digit range on a full year basis.

在內陸海事領域，我們預計 2024 年市場將出現積極的動態，由於行業內新駁船建造有限，許多裝置正在進行維護，再加上穩定的客戶需求，市場形勢緊張。在這些市場條件下，我們預計全年駁船利用率將保持在 90% 的低至中水平範圍內。總體而言，內陸地區全年收入預計將在中高個位數範圍內成長。

Normal seasonal winter weather has started and is expected to be a headwind to revenues and margins in the first quarter as usual. With respect to operating margins, we expect to gradually improve during the year with the first quarter being the lowest and averaging around 20% for the full year, what will be a 300 to 400 basis point improvement from the 2023 average.

正常的季節性冬季天氣已經開始，預計將像往常一樣對第一季的收入和利潤構成不利影響。就營業利潤率而言，我們預計年內將逐步改善，其中第一季最低，全年平均約為 20%，較 2023 年平均水準提高 300 至 400 個基點。

In Coastal, market conditions have tightened considerably and supply and demand are balanced across the industry fleet. Strong customer demand is expected throughout the year with our barge utilization in the low to mid-90% range. With major shipyards and ballast water treatment installations concluding in the first half of the year, revenues for the full year are expected to increase in the high single to low double-digit range, when compared to 2023.

在沿海地區，市場狀況大幅收緊，整個產業的供需平衡。預計全年客戶需求強勁，我們的駁船利用率將在 90% 的低至中水平範圍內。隨著主要造船廠和壓載水處理設施在今年上半年竣工，與 2023 年相比，全年收入預計將在高個位數到低兩位數範圍內增長。

And Coastal operating margins are expected to be in the mid- to high single-digit range on a full year basis with the first quarter the lowest, due to weather and shipyards. In the Distribution and Services segment, despite the uncertainty from volatile commodity prices, we expect to see incremental demand for OEM products, parts and services within the segment.

由於天氣和造船廠的影響，沿海地區全年營運利潤率預計將在中高個位數範圍內，其中第一季最低。在分銷和服務領域，儘管商品價格波動存在不確定性，但我們預計該領域對 OEM 產品、零件和服務的需求將會增加。

In Commercial and Industrial, strong demand for power generation and stable marine repair is expected to help drive full year revenue growth in the high single-digit to low double-digit percent range. In Oil and Gas, our manufacturing backlog is expected to provide stable levels of activity through most of 2024, but will be somewhat offset by lower activity levels in the oilfield market. We anticipate extended lead times in the near term to continue contributing to volatile deliveries, with respect to the schedule of new products in 2024.

在商業和工業領域，對發電和穩定的船舶維修的強勁需求預計將有助於推動全年收入在高個位數到低兩位數的百分比範圍內增長。在石油和天然氣領域，我們的製造業積壓預計將在 2024 年大部分時間提供穩定的活動水平，但將在一定程度上被油田市場活動水平較低所抵消。就 2024 年新產品的時間表而言，我們預計近期交貨時間會延長，從而繼續導致交付波動。

Overall, the company expects segment revenues to be flat to slightly down on a full year basis with operating margins in the mid- to high single digits, but slightly lower than year-over-year due to mix. To conclude, we ended 2023 in a position of strength in both of our segments. In Marine Transportation, barge utilization and customer demand remained strong and rates continue to increase. In D&S, demand for our products and services remain strong, and we continue to receive new orders in manufacturing.

總體而言，該公司預計全年分部收入將持平或略有下降，營業利潤率為中高個位數，但由於混合原因略低於去年同期。總而言之，到 2023 年結束時，我們在這兩個領域都處於優勢地位。在海運方面，駁船利用率和客戶需求仍然強勁，費率持續上升。在 D&S，對我們產品和服務的需求依然強勁，我們不斷收到新的製造訂單。

Overall, we anticipate our businesses to deliver 30% to 40% earnings growth in 2024. Key risks putting us at the lower end of that range would be the impact of a recession -- a potential recession or lingering inflation. While achieving the higher end of this range would be driven by stronger-than-expected chemical markets for Marine and stronger-than-expected Oil and Gas markets in D&S. As we look long term, we remain confident in the strength of our core businesses and our long-term strategy.

總體而言，我們預計我們的業務到 2024 年將實現 30% 至 40% 的獲利成長。將我們置於該區間下限的主要風險是經濟衰退的影響——潛在的衰退或持續的通膨。而實現這一範圍的高端將受到海洋化學品市場強於預期以及 D&S 石油和天然氣市場強於預期的推動。著眼長遠，我們對核心業務的實力和長期策略仍然充滿信心。

Our Marine businesses are in the early innings of a multiyear up cycle and demand remains solid in D&S. We intend to continue capitalizing on strong market fundamentals and driving value for our shareholders.

我們的船舶業務正處於多年上升週期的早期階段，D&S 的需求仍然強勁。我們打算繼續利用強勁的市場基本面並為股東創造價值。

Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks. We are now ready to take questions.

接線員，我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在準備好回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will be coming from Jack Atkins of Stephens.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自史蒂芬斯的傑克·阿特金斯。

So David, I guess I'd like to -- maybe if I can start with the CapEx guidance for a second. The $90 million, I think, in growth CapEX, can you kind of give us a little more color how that split between the cost -- excuse me, the Marine versus the Distribution businesses? And I guess as I look at the 39, if I'm reading this right, 39 new -- I guess, how many barges are you planning on adding in 2024? I'm just trying to get that correct. As we think about next year, are you building barges for 2024 in Inland?

所以大衛，我想我想——也許我可以先談談資本支出指南。我認為，9000 萬美元的成長資本支出，您能否給我們更多的說明一下成本之間的分配情況——請問，海軍陸戰隊與分銷業務之間的成本分配情況如何？我想，當我看到 39 艘駁船時，如果我沒看錯的話，39 艘是新的——我猜，你們計劃在 2024 年增加多少艘駁船？我只是想弄清楚這一點。當我們考慮明年時，您是否會在內陸建造 2024 年駁船？

No. What happened, Jack, is we stepped into a competitor's shipyard contract. They were building some barges and some boats. They needed to not do that. And we were able to step in and get a good deal with the shipyard. So those boats and barges, it's basically 2 boats with a bow thrusting units that go with those and then 4 barges. So we stepped into those -- that contract for them. It was kind of underway and the competitor couldn't finish it. So we stick into it. And it's a good price. We were happy with it.

不，傑克，發生的事情是我們簽訂了競爭對手的造船廠合約。他們正在建造一些駁船和一些小船。他們需要不這樣做。我們能夠介入並與造船廠達成了一筆很好的交易。所以那些船和駁船，基本上是 2 艘有船頭推進裝置的船，然後是 4 艘駁船。所以我們簽訂了他們的合約。比賽正在進行中，而競爭對手無法完成。所以我們堅持下去。而且價格很好。我們很高興。

Do we want building? No. New construction doesn't make sense now. We were able to get a decent price on the these and so we stepped into it. So that's part of that growth CapEx. And then we're doing some things in C&I for KDS, it's helping a little bit. But the biggest part of our CapEx, as you know, is maintenance CapEx. We've talked about the maintenance bubble. It's real. It's real for the industry, it's real for us. So our CapEx is still pretty elevated with the maintenance side of things.

我們想要建造嗎？不，現在新建沒有意義。我們能夠以合理的價格購買這些產品，因此我們介入了。這是成長資本支出的一部分。然後我們在 C&I 方面為 KDS 做了一些事情，這有點幫助。但如您所知，我們資本支出的最大部分是維護資本支出。我們已經討論過維護泡沫。它是真實的。這對產業來說是真實的，對我們來說也是真實的。因此，我們的資本支出在維護方面仍然相當高。

Okay. No, that makes total sense. And then I guess, maybe just to that last point, I guess, as you think about new builds in 2024 for the industry relative to maybe anticipated retirements. Can you walk us through that? And then I know that a lot of the industry is going to be down for maintenance on the Inland side in 2024. How much of your fleet do you think will be out for maintenance, relative to your normal maintenance schedule in 2024?

好的。不，這完全有道理。然後我想，也許只是最後一點，我想，當你考慮到 2024 年該行業的新建築相對於可能預期的退休時。你能引導我們了解一下嗎？然後我知道很多行業將在 2024 年在內陸地區進行維護。相對於 2024 年的正常維護計劃，您認為您的機隊中有多少將進行維護？

Yes. It's significant. It's -- in any given day, we'll have 80 barges out. And I think for the industry, this is going to be a big year. It could be on the order. Well, I know it's north of 600 and maybe as high as 1,000 for this year. So it's a big number. I actually think this is positive for a number of reasons. One, it helps tighten up utility. But more importantly, people are busy maintaining their fleet. They're going to put their cash to that, instead of going and build new. It doesn't make sense to build new. So I think it actually helps the whole supply picture quite a bit. But it's a known bubble. And the good news is our customers understand that they're sophisticated. They get it. They know what's going on. And inflation is not helping this either, as you might imagine.

是的。這很重要。任何一天，我們都會有 80 艘駁船出港。我認為對於這個行業來說，這將是重要的一年。訂單上可能有。嗯，我知道今年的數字將超過 600，甚至可能高達 1,000。所以這是一個很大的數字。事實上，我認為這是正面的，原因有很多。第一，它有助於加強效用。但更重要的是，人們正忙於維護他們的車隊。他們將把現金投入其中，而不是去建造新的。新建沒有意義。所以我認為這實際上對整個供應格局有很大幫助。但這是一個眾所周知的泡沫。好消息是我們的客戶知道他們很成熟。他們明白了。他們知道發生了什麼事。正如你可能想像的那樣，通貨膨脹也無助於這一點。

Shipyards used to be, Jack, they'd run 3 ships -- 3 shifts now a number of them can only crew 2 shifts. And shipyard costs have gone up, steel costs are going up. Labor costs are very high. So all that's factoring into keeping that supply in check. And I think that continues through '25 to be honest.

傑克，造船廠以前經營 3 艘船——3 個班次，現在其中一些只能配備 2 個班次的船員。造船廠成本上升，鋼鐵成本也在上升。勞動成本非常高。因此，所有這些因素都是為了控制供應。老實說，我認為這種情況會持續到 25 年。

And just on that first part of the question, as you think about new builds for the industry relative to retirements, would you expect net capacity attrition in '24?

就問題的第一部分而言，當您考慮該行業相對於退役的新建建築時，您是否預計 24 年的淨產能損耗？

Absolutely. I think what we've heard, there's only about 20 barges, maybe 25 on dock for 2024. I would imagine, I don't have good data on retirements, but I could imagine you bring something into the shipyard and you see it's going to cost you a heck of a lot. You just soon retire it if it's only got 5 years left of its life. So we should see attrition of, my guess is 50 to 150 barges this year. So we should have a net decline this year in supply.

絕對地。我想我們聽說，只有大約20 艘駁船，到2024 年碼頭上可能有25 艘。我想，我沒有關於退役的良好數據，但我可以想像你把一些東西帶進造船廠，你會看到它正在發生讓你付出很多代價。如果它的壽命只剩下 5 年了，你很快就退休了。因此，我猜今年我們應該會看到 50 到 150 艘駁船的消耗。因此，今年的供應量應該會出現淨下降。

And our next question will come from Ben Nolan of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 Ben Nolan。

Thank you. David, Raj, good numbers. So my first question is on the D&S side, specifically on the Industrial side. It seems like that business is just really grown well over the last number of years. And as I'm looking forward and trying to sort out, how sticky that is. I'm just curious if you maybe talk to on the Industrial side, how do you think of that with respect to whether it's cyclical or maybe structural and you've changed your business mix and it's just resulted in more growth? Or have you captured share? How are you thinking about that Industrial side of the business?

謝謝。大衛、拉吉，數字不錯。所以我的第一個問題是關於 D&S 方面，特別是工業方面。看起來該業務在過去幾年中確實成長良好。當我期待並試圖解決這個問題時，這有多粘。我只是很好奇，如果您可能與工業方面交談，您如何看待它是週期性的還是結構性的，並且您已經改變了業務組合，並且它只是帶來了更多增長？或是你佔領了份額嗎？您如何看待工業方面的業務？

Yes. No, thanks for the question, Ben. Look, on the C&I side, there's really 3 parts to it. There's on-highway and marine repair and then there's power generation. So I'd say the first 2, marine repair and on-highway really are going to move with the economy, right? We see -- we saw a little pullback in the on-highway trucking space.

是的。不，謝謝你的提問，本。看，在 C&I 方面，它實際上分為 3 個部分。有公路和海上維修，還有發電。所以我想說前兩個，海上維修和公路確實會隨著經濟的發展而發展，對吧？我們看到—我們看到公路貨運領域出現了小幅回落。

You saw one of the truckers go bankrupt last year. We have seen a little pullback. That's in our guidance for 2024. On marine repair, we do both commercial marine and pleasure craft, with being an election year, we're seeing a little pullback in pleasure craft, but commercial marine repair is pretty strong. As you would expect, as you hear us talk about maintaining our vessels.

去年你看到一位卡車司機破產了。我們看到了一些回調。這是我們對 2024 年的指導。在船舶維修方面，我們同時從事商業船舶和遊船業務，由於是選舉年，我們看到遊船業務略有回落，但商業船舶維修業務相當強勁。正如您所期望的，當您聽到我們談論維護我們的船隻時。

And then -- but the real secular growth story is in power generation. I think it's pretty obvious. Everybody needs power 24/7 now. Every business runs using computing power. I think AI and machine learning is only adding to that demand. So we're seeing secular growth in our -- on our power generation side. As you know, we provide backup power to places like the New York Stock Exchange, JPMorgan and others as well as retail environments like Walmart, Costco, Target and the like, as well as rentals, we rent power out. So it's -- we're seeing a lot of growth there. We manufacture some of that equipment. So it's -- it helps the manufacturing as well as the distribution side, and that's more of a secular growth story.

然後——但真正的長期成長故事是在發電領域。我認為這很明顯。現在每個人都需要 24/7 的電力。每個企業都使用運算能力來運作。我認為人工智慧和機器學習只會增加這一需求。因此，我們看到發電方面的長期成長。如您所知，我們為紐約證券交易所、摩根大通等地方以及沃爾瑪、好市多、塔吉特等零售環境提供備用電源，以及租賃，我們出租電力。所以我們看到那裡有很大的成長。我們製造其中一些設備。所以它對製造和分銷方面都有幫助，這更像是一個長期成長的故事。

Okay. So all in, if you were just to sort of take a high-level approach to it, does it feel like the business is less cyclical than it used to be 2 or 3 years ago, as a function of that power business?

好的。總而言之，如果你只是採取一種高層次的方法來對待它，作為電力業務的一個功能，是否感覺該業務的周期性比兩三年前要小？

Absolutely. Yes, absolutely. Oil and Gas is still going to cycle. Overall, you'll see '24 versus '23. We're seeing that revenue in D&S is going to be down -- flat to slightly down, and that's really all based on Oil and Gas. C&I is offsetting it. But you -- I'm sure you heard calls on the oilfield side, whether it's pressure pumpers or E&P or service companies, they're all looking for a down year, '24 over '23. That that's in our guidance, and that's why you're seeing kind of flattish revenue for D&S. Really, the strength of C&I is making that look not as bad.

絕對地。是的，一點沒錯。石油和天然氣仍將循環。總的來說，您會看到“24”與“23”。我們看到 D&S 的收入將會下降——持平到略有下降，而這實際上完全基於石油和天然氣。 C&I 正在抵消它。但我相信你聽到了油田方面的呼籲，無論是壓力泵、勘探與生產還是服務公司，他們都在尋找下滑的一年，「24 年比 23 年」。這就是我們的指導意見，這就是為什麼你會看到 D&S 的收入持平。事實上，C&I 的實力讓情況看起來沒那麼糟。

Okay. And then for my second question, shifting gears a little bit. The Coastal business looks like it's finally going to be in for a pretty good year. Although as I was looking at it, I mean, you're down to, I think, like 28 Coastal barges, I mean, there was a point which you were at 80. I know that has not been obviously a focus of growth for you. And you've said it, at least in the past, it hasn't been. But is there a point where you just need sort of critical scale? Or is there a point at which you maybe think about adding to that? Or it remains sort of not the primary focus?

好的。然後對於我的第二個問題，稍微改變一下。沿海業務看起來終於迎來了美好的一年。儘管正如我所看到的，我的意思是，你已經下降到，我認為，就像28 艘沿海駁船一樣，我的意思是，有一個點你達到了80 艘。我知道這顯然不是增長的焦點你。你已經說過了，至少在過去，但事實並非如此。但是否存在只需要某種臨界規模的點呢？或者您會考慮對此進行補充？或者它仍然不是主要焦點？

Yes. Well, I mean, you know our preference would be Inland Marine. If we're going to grow anywhere, it would be an Inland Marine, it would be our preference. That said, Coastal is going to be a great 5-year story here. We are supply and demand, are in balance now. We're -- as you saw in our prepared remarks, we saw spot prices up year-over-year in the mid-30% range and term contracts up in the mid-20 -- low 20% range. That's going to continue in '25, '26, probably into '27 easily. We need it.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，你知道我們的首選是內陸海軍陸戰隊。如果我們要在任何地方發展，那就是內陸海軍陸戰隊，這將是我們的首選。也就是說，Coastal 將成為這裡五年的精彩故事。我們的供給和需求現在處於平衡狀態。正如您在我們準備好的發言中看到的那樣，我們看到現貨價格同比上漲了 30% 左右，而定期合約則上漲了 20% 至 20% 左右。這種情況將在 25 年、26 年繼續下去，很可能會輕鬆進入 27 年。我們需要。

The rates have been low. We've been balancing along and our Coastal business is break-even, this year for '24, we're going to be kind of mid-single digits, maybe even get to the high single digits in terms of operating income margins. And really, that should continue because the supply picture. As you know, these vessels are very expensive, 185,000 barrel unit, we built 5 years ago for $80 million. Right now, if you were to build that, it would be $130 million, $135 million to build it. And nobody's got one on the books. And even if they did, you wouldn't get it until 2027.

利率一直很低。我們一直在保持平衡，我們的沿海業務實現收支平衡，今年 24 年，我們的營業收入利潤率將達到中等個位數，甚至可能達到高個位數。實際上，由於供應情況，這種情況應該會持續下去。如您所知，這些船隻非常昂貴，每艘 185,000 桶，我們於 5 年前建造，耗資 8,000 萬美元。現在，如果你要建造它，需要 1.3 億美元、1.35 億美元。而且沒有人在書上有這樣的記錄。即使他們這樣做了，你也要到 2027 年才能得到它。

So we're very enthusiastic about the Coastal business. Does that mean we want to go out and speculative build? Absolutely not. I mean we're -- there may be some contracts coming from customers that would get that. But we're not going to go. And just to comment on our fleet, our actual high, I think, was 59 barges, not 80. But we took out a lot of wire barges, wire -- the customer demand for wire barges was low. They were older we've got a much higher quality fleet now. And the other thing just in terms of construct there, what happened to that business was the ban on exporting crude was lifted.

所以我們對沿海業務非常熱情。這是否意味著我們想要出去進行投機建設？絕對不。我的意思是，我們可能會簽一些來自客戶的合約。但我們不會去。就我們的船隊而言，我認為我們的實際最高數量是 59 艘駁船，而不是 80 艘。但是我們拿出了很多線纜駁船、線纜——客戶對線纜駁船的需求很低。他們年齡更大，我們現在擁有一支更高品質的機隊。就那裡的建設而言，另一件事是該業務發生的事情是取消了原油出口禁令。

So at one point, we had 17 barges moving crude in the coastwise business. Now we got 0. And that happened all across the industry. And that's why we've been in a protracted downturn in that business. And all that excess supply has been retired and it's in balance now, and we're pretty excited about it.

因此，我們曾經有 17 艘駁船從事海岸業務運輸原油。現在我們得到了 0。整個行業都發生了這種情況。這就是為什麼我們的業務長期處於低迷狀態。所有過剩的供應都已消除，現在已達到平衡，我們對此感到非常興奮。

Okay. And there's -- you don't think there's any critical mass issues or economies of scale issues or anything where you are, it's playing large?

好的。你不認為有任何臨界質量問題或規模經濟問題或任何你所在的地方，它正在發揮作用嗎？

Yes. No. I think we're still one of the largest players in the space on a barrel volume basis. We're probably 1 or 2. There is -- 2 of our competitors are trying to get together in a joint venture, so that we'll see what that brings. But we're still 1 or 2 in the market, in terms of size. So we've got the critical mass. And as you know, it's the same customers that we deal with on the Inland side. So we have that scale just because our Commercial team deals and our Vetting team deals with the major customers every day. It's the same group, whether it's Coastal or Inland.

是的。不。我認為，就桶裝量而言，我們仍然是該領域最大的參與者之一。我們可能是一兩個。我們的兩個競爭對手正試圖聯合起來成立一家合資企業，以便我們看看這會帶來什麼。但就規模而言，我們在市場上仍處於一到二名。所以我們已經達到臨界質量了。如您所知，我們在內陸地區處理的客戶也是同樣的客戶。所以我們有這樣的規模只是因為我們的商業團隊和我們的審核團隊每天都與主要客戶打交道。無論是沿海還是內陸，都是同一個族群。

Got you. I appreciate it. And lastly, just congratulations to Joe Pyne. It's a heck of a career.

明白你了。我很感激。最後，祝賀喬·派恩。這是一份很棒的職業。

Yes. Thanks for saying. I mean, Joe, he's an institution. He's basically been the father of our business for 46 years, he grew it from nothing into what it is today. He'll be missed. Thanks, Ben.

是的。謝謝你說。我的意思是，喬，他是一個機構。 46 年來，他基本上一直是我們企業的創辦人，他將我們的企業從無到有發展成今天的樣子。人們會想念他的。謝謝，本。

Our next question will come from Ken Hoexter of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的肯·霍克斯特。

David, Raj, so just -- by the way, first, let me throw it in as well, just long career, a long time working with Joe. So best of luck as he moves on. And thanks for all the help over the years.

大衛、拉吉，順便說一句，首先，讓我也說一下，我的職業生涯很長，和喬一起工作了很長時間。祝他繼續前進。感謝多年來的所有幫助。

Your Inland barge segment, right? If 4Q exits at 20% and most contracts renew in -- or near 20%, sorry, and most contracts were renewed in the fourth quarter. Has pricing stalled at Inland and thus, we're not seeing accelerating in your margin target from basically fourth quarter run rate levels? I'm just trying to guess maybe where are spot levels now, is it possible to reachieve the mid-20s kind of that you talked about if pricing keeps accreting given your cost hopefully have decelerated on an inflation basis?

您的內陸駁船部分，對吧？如果第四季度的成長率為 20%，而大多數合約在 20% 左右續簽，那麼抱歉，大多數合約都是在第四季度續簽的。內陸地區的定價是否已停滯，因此，我們沒有看到你們的利潤目標較第四季度的運行率水準有所加快？我只是想猜測現在現貨水平在哪裡，如果價格繼續上漲，考慮到您的成本預計將在通膨基礎上下降，是否有可能達到您所說的 20 多歲左右？

Yes. The short answer is, yes, we'll definitely get to the mid-20s. But let me give some color, Ken. I think it's a great question. The average for the fourth quarter was in the high teens. December was an okay weather month. So we touched that 20%. First quarter is always the worst weather. So we're anticipating margins will dip back down into the high teens in the first quarter because of the weather.

是的。簡短的回答是，是的，我們肯定會到 20 多歲。但讓我給一些顏色，肯。我認為這是一個很好的問題。第四季的平均值為十幾歲。十二月是一個天氣好的月份。所以我們觸及了那 20%。第一季總是最糟糕的天氣。因此，我們預計，由於天氣原因，第一季利潤率將回落至十幾歲左右。

By the second and third will be probably north of 20%. Fourth quarter, we'll have to see. That's always a tough weather month. The way I look at margins, Ken, is, look, we will be up year-over-year, 300 to 400 basis points in margin. Because of weather, high water, low water, hurricane, lock closures, it's just hard to get any one course too specific. But my view is that the whole entity will be up 300 to 400 basis points.

到第二次和第三次可能會超過 20%。第四季度，我們拭目以待。那總是一個天氣惡劣的月份。 Ken，我對利潤率的看法是，我們的利潤率將年增 300 到 400 個基點。由於天氣、高水位、低水位、颶風、船閘關閉等原因，很難找到任何一門過於具體的課程。但我的觀點是，整個實體將上漲 300 至 400 個基點。

And more importantly, we anticipate the same kind of improvement in that order of magnitude in '25. It's -- this is a runway, and it should take several years to play out. Now in terms of pricing, rolling over or even flattening, we didn't see that. Spot prices year-over-year in Inland, we're up 15% to 18%. Term pricing was up 7% and 9% year-over-year. So there's actually a healthy gap between spot and term. You want to spot above term, which we see. It's a pretty good gap. And then even sequentially, we saw from third to fourth quarter, spot pricing was up 2% to 5%. So we didn't see any flattening.

更重要的是，我們預期 25 年也會出現同樣數量級的改善。這是——這是一條跑道，應該需要幾年的時間才能完成。現在在定價、滾動甚至持平方面，我們沒有看到這一點。內陸現貨價格較去年同期上漲 15% 至 18%。定期定價較去年同期上漲 7% 和 9%。因此，現貨和期限之間實際上存在著一個健康的差距。您想要找到我們看到的上述術語。這是一個相當不錯的差距。然後，即使是連續的，我們也看到從第三季度到第四季度，現貨價格上漲了 2% 到 5%。所以我們沒有看到任何扁平化。

Look, pricing needs to continue to go up. We're offsetting inflation. We're trying to get returns back up to where we can get a return on our invested capital. And we're still a long way away from justifying new builds. So it's very constructive. I think you'll see the margin progression of 300 to 400 basis points up this year. And then perhaps something similar in 2025.

看來，價格還需要繼續上漲。我們正在抵消通貨膨脹。我們正在努力將回報恢復到我們能夠獲得投資資本回報的水平。我們距離證明新建築的合理性還有很長的路要走。所以這是非常有建設性的。我認為今年你會看到利潤率上升 300 到 400 個基點。 2025 年也許還會出現類似的情況。

So really, the best way, I guess, to take away from that is you can't look at the fourth quarter as the exit rate -- run rate, you got to look at the annual as far as the improvement, given the seasonality and repricing.

所以，我認為，最好的方法是，你不能將第四季度視為退出率 - 運行率，考慮到季節性，你必須關注年度的改善情況和重新定價。

I think that's fair. We -- I mean, you heard our term contracts were up in the high single digits, 7% and 9%. So that's going to roll through this year. And it will progress.

我認為這是公平的。我們——我的意思是，你聽說我們的定期合約上漲了高個位數，7% 和 9%。所以這將在今年發生。它將進步。

And then did you mention where spot rates are now for (inaudible) barge?

然後您有沒有提到現在（聽不清楚）駁船的即期費率是多少？

No, I didn't. I better -- I shouldn't or my attorney will kick me.

不，我沒有。我最好——我不應該這樣做，否則我的律師會踢我。

And then going to the ONG side, you keep mentioning supply chain delays. I just would imagine we're well past everything post-COVID and supply chain issues. I mean maybe Red Sea is now popping up now with rerouting, but what are the issues that you're still dealing with on the supply chain?

然後到 ONG 方面，您不斷提到供應鏈延遲。我只是想我們已經擺脫了新冠疫情後的一切和供應鏈問題。我的意思是，也許紅海現在正在因重新路由而出現，但您在供應鏈上仍在處理哪些問題？

Yes. No, it's gotten a lot better, Ken. For sure, you saw our deliveries when -- probably infer -- our deliveries in the fourth quarter were pretty good out of our manufacturing facility. We were having problems with electronic componentry and one-off items holding up a whole series of equipment, that's kind of worked its way out. What's really happening now is long lead time, engine packages for example.

是的。不，情況已經好多了，肯。當然，當您看到我們的交付情況時——可能會推斷——我們的製造工廠第四季度的交付情況相當不錯。我們在電子元件和支撐整個系列設備的一次性物品方面遇到了問題，但現在已經解決了。現在真正發生的事情是交貨時間長，例如引擎套件。

If we were to order engines today, we wouldn't get them until kind of mid '25. So that's -- the big componentry is the problem. The lead times on engines, in particular, have been a problem, and it's really about boundary constraints in the engine world. But yes, it's just long lead times. So we're still dealing with that. If that was compressed, we would deliver better results. If we could get engines quicker, particularly on C&I, for power generation, Ken, we're seeing a lot of demand for backup power. And if the engine packages could flow quicker, we'd have better numbers in D&S for 2024.

如果我們今天訂購發動機，要到 25 年中期才能拿到。所以這就是——大部件就是問題所在。引擎的交貨時間尤其是一個問題，這實際上與引擎世界的邊界限制有關。但是，是的，這只是交貨時間很長。所以我們仍在處理這個問題。如果壓縮的話，我們會提供更好的結果。如果我們能夠更快地獲得用於發電的發動機，特別是在工商業領域，肯，我們將看到對備用電源的大量需求。如果引擎組能夠更快地流動，我們在 2024 年的 D&S 中就會有更好的數字。

David, I just want to clarify 2 things, one real quick, if I can, on the first answer on the margins. So just the 300, 400 basis points, if December exited close to 20%, does that mean -- December '23. Does that mean December '24, could exit close to 24% for that month, just given that seasonality. Is that kind of conceptually, how we should think about it? And then do we need to change the supply chain in any way to affect that change?

大衛，我只想澄清兩件事，如果可以的話，澄清一下邊緣的第一個答案。因此，如果 12 月的漲幅接近 20%，那麼僅 300、400 個基點就意味著 23 日 12 月。這是否意味著考慮到季節性因素，24 年 12 月該月的退出率可能接近 24%。從概念上講，我們該如何思考它？那麼我們是否需要以任何方式改變供應鏈來影響這種變化？

Yes. On the margins, it depends on weather in December, right? But yes, I mean, directionally, if we saw a mild December, I think absolutely, we'd be close to that number. Yes. On the supply chain, look, we use -- it's best for me not to name different engine companies, but we use all kinds of different engines. And they're seeing it, whether it's a German-based engine company or a U.S.-based engine company, they all have the same issues in terms of foundries, producing blocks and getting it through.

是的。順便說一句，這取決於十二月的天氣，對嗎？但是，是的，我的意思是，從方向上來說，如果我們看到一個溫和的 12 月，我認為絕對會接近這個數字。是的。在供應鏈上，看，我們使用——我最好不要說出不同的引擎公司的名字，但我們使用各種不同的引擎。他們看到，無論是德國引擎公司還是美國引擎公司，他們在鑄造廠、生產缸體和通過方面都面臨著相同的問題。

There's not much we can do. It's their supply chain. We're working with them trying to preorder stuff and work that side of the thing. But look, they're working hard to get the engines. They want to sell as many as they can as well. So we're working on it with them. Some of it is out of our control. we're trying to do better job planning, as you would expect.

我們無能為力。這是他們的供應鏈。我們正在與他們合作，嘗試預訂商品並進行這方面的工作。但是看，他們正在努力獲取引擎。他們也想盡可能多地出售。所以我們正在與他們一起努力。其中一些是我們無法控制的。正如您所期望的那樣，我們正在努力製定更好的工作規劃。

Our next question will be coming from John Chappell of Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Chappell。

David, I'm going to ask you bit of a longer-term question, but it ties together, I think a lot of things we've been talking about for the last couple of years or so. When you lay out a path for 300, 400 basis points, both this year and next, that kind of gets us close to the mid-20s.

大衛，我要問你一個更長期的問題，但它是聯繫在一起的，我認為我們在過去幾年左右一直在談論很多事情。當你為今年和明年的 300、400 個基點制定路徑時，這會讓我們接近 20 個基點。

We had spoken maybe years ago now at this point about inflation really kind of pinching you, potentially precluding the Inland margin from getting back to the cyclical peaks of 10-plus years ago. Is inflation easing at all now? And when you talk about the early innings, I would assume that would mean this has a couple more years of runway. Can we revisit then those kind of mid- to high percent Inland margins barring an extraordinary event?

我們可能在幾年前就談到通貨膨脹確實對你造成了壓力，可能會阻止內陸利潤率回到十多年前的周期性高峰。現在通膨是否有所緩解？當你談論前幾局時，我認為這意味著這還有幾年的時間。那麼，除非發生特殊事件，我們是否可以重新檢視那些中高百分比的內陸利潤率？

Yes, I'll take those in kind of reverse order. I do believe we could get to the high 20s in margin, we'll see. But inflation is real. We're seeing it even when you listen to the pundits out there, we're still seeing inflation, not deflation. I would tell you, maintenance is -- maintenance inflation has gone up a lot. We talked a little bit about the shipyards having a hard time getting labor. Steel prices haven't abated at all.

是的，我會以相反的順序來處理它們。我確實相信我們的利潤率可以達到 20 多歲，我們拭目以待。但通貨膨脹是真實存在的。即使你聽了專家的意見，我們仍然看到通貨膨脹，而不是通貨緊縮。我會告訴你，維護是──維護通貨膨脹已經上升了很多。我們談到了造船廠很難獲得勞動力的問題。鋼材價格根本沒有下降。

In our ecosystem, mariners are short, critically short, across the entire industry. Fortunately, we have our own school where we train mariners. But we're still really tight on crewing. So we're seeing labor inflation. Everybody is seeing it. Things like paint and steel and all of that, we're still seeing inflation, believe it or not, rental cars. We do a lot of crew moves in rental car, inflation has hit us. So we're still offsetting that. I think everybody has been a little frustrated with the pace of our margin improvement, certainly us, we would like to improve it faster.

在我們的生態系統中，整個產業的水手都短缺，而且嚴重短缺。幸運的是，我們有自己的學校來訓練水手。但我們的人員配備仍然非常緊張。所以我們看到了勞動力通膨。每個人都看到了。不管你信不信，像是油漆和鋼鐵之類的東西，我們仍然看到通貨膨脹，租汽車。我們在租賃汽車中進行了很多人員調動，通貨膨脹對我們造成了打擊。所以我們仍在抵消這一點。我認為每個人都對我們利潤率改善的速度感到有點沮喪，當然是我們，我們希望更快地改善它。

But it's really about this inflation and trying to offset it. Look, our customers are experiencing the same thing. They have inflation in their refineries, in their chemical plants. They're fighting steel costs, supply chain issues and, of course, labor costs. So our sophisticated customers definitely understand it. They understand we're fighting inflation. We are getting some real price increases, but we needed to get to prices that could justify replacement capacity. So it's a long rambling response, Jon, sorry, but inflation is there. But the fundamentals are such that we're going to get to the mid-20s at some point and barring anything unforeseen, we should get to the high 20s.

但這實際上是關於通貨膨脹並試圖抵消它。看，我們的客戶也經歷著同樣的事情。他們的煉油廠和化工廠都存在通貨膨脹。他們正在應對鋼鐵成本、供應鏈問題，當然還有勞動成本。所以我們經驗豐富的客戶肯定明白這一點。他們知道我們正在對抗通貨膨脹。我們的價格確實有所上漲，但我們需要達到可以證明替代能力合理的價格。所以這是一個很長的漫無目的的回答，喬恩，抱歉，但通貨膨脹是存在的。但基本面是這樣的，我們將在某個時候達到 20 多歲，除非出現任何不可預見的情況，我們應該會達到 20 多歲。

That's great. For my follow-up, maybe a tag team here, tying 2 things together. So David, you're able to pick up, those barges that your competitor had to walk away from conceivably. And you're at obviously at a great balance sheet position to do that. When I look at your buybacks in '23, as far as I can find, it's the second highest year for at least 15, 16 years after 2015. And and a ton of free cash flow per year guidance for '24.

那太棒了。對於我的後續行動，也許這裡有一個雙打團隊，將兩件事聯繫在一起。所以大衛，你可以拿起那些你的競爭對手可能不得不離開的駁船。顯然，您的資產負債表狀況非常好，可以做到這一點。當我查看你們在 23 年的回購情況時，據我所知，這是 2015 年後至少 15 年、16 年來第二高的年份。並且每年有大量自由現金流為 24 年提供指導。

So I guess the question is picking up barges in the orders or, I think, a one-off event. But is the M&A market kind of bubbling up a little bit now where you're off the bottom, no one wants to sell at the low, so maybe there's some activity brewing there? And how much dry powder do you want to keep for that vis-a-vis maybe using all this free cash flow to continue to ramp the buyback pace? So for David and Raj.

所以我想問題是在訂單中接收駁船，或者我認為這是一次性事件。但是，併購市場現在是否有點沸騰，沒有人願意以低價出售，所以也許那裡正在醞釀一些活動？相對於利用所有這些自由現金流繼續加快回購步伐，你想保留多少乾粉？對於大衛和拉吉來說也是如此。

Yes. I'll let Raj chime in here a bit, too. We still have liquidity available on our revolver and our debt-to-EBITDA is fine. We've got plenty of borrowing capacity. And to your point, we do -- we're going to have a lot of free cash flow this year, and we've been aggressive buying our stock. We like our stock where it's at, particularly when we look at the next 3 to 5 years, it's going to be a good run. So we're happy to buy back our stock.

是的。我也請 Raj 插話一下。我們的左輪手槍仍然有可用的流動性，而且我們的債務與 EBITDA 的比率很好。我們有充足的借貸能力。就你的觀點而言，我們確實 - 今年我們將擁有大量自由現金流，並且我們一直在積極購買我們的股票。我們喜歡現在的股票，特別是當我們展望未來 3 到 5 年時，它將會表現良好。所以我們很高興回購我們的股票。

That said, we always like those Inland acquisitions, but we're not going to lose our price discipline. We'll be very disciplined or hard to predict. We did pick up. We bought some barges from a competitor last year as well. We'll look for those one-offs predicting a big deal, that's a lot harder. I would just tell you, we're going to stay disciplined. We think we've got good borrowing capacity in any event. And we also like our stock. But Raj, do you want to add anything?

也就是說，我們一直喜歡那些內陸收購，但我們不會失去我們的價格紀律。我們會非常自律，或很難預測。我們確實接了。去年我們也從競爭對手那裡購買了一些駁船。我們會尋找那些一次預測重大交易的人，這要困難得多。我只想告訴你，我們將保持紀律。我們認為無論如何我們都有良好的借貸能力。我們也喜歡我們的股票。但是 Raj，你想補充什麼嗎？

Yes, David. Thank you. Thanks, Jonathan. I think you saw last year in '23, we dedicated about 80-plus percent of our free cash flow towards share repurchase. And to David's point, it's very difficult to predict any M&A. We always look at it. We're very, very -- we have a rigorous approach towards looking at projects and M&A opportunities. But barring anything that's attractive, I think you can continue to see us progressing that trend of share repurchase similar to what we did in 2023.

是的，大衛。謝謝。謝謝，喬納森。我想你在去年 23 年就看到了，我們將 80% 以上的自由現金流用於股票回購。在大衛看來，預測任何併購都是非常困難的。我們總是看著它。我們非常非常嚴格地尋找專案和併購機會。但除非有任何有吸引力的事情，我認為你可以繼續看到我們推進股票回購的趨勢，類似於我們在 2023 年所做的那樣。

Our next question will be coming from Greg Lewis of BTIG.

我們的下一個問題將來自 BTIG 的 Greg Lewis。

David, and I guess this is for Raj, too. I did want to ask about, I guess, the decision to kind of reintroduce full year earnings guidance, I mean, like it seems like we pulled it away a couple of years ago. I mean, David, you're talking about, I guess, a multiyear run, in terms of the operating environment. Is that kind of the genesis for what drove the full year earnings guidance back into the equation?

大衛，我想這也適合拉吉。我確實想問有關重新引入全年盈利指導的決定，我的意思是，好像我們幾年前就取消了它。我的意思是，大衛，我想，就操作環境而言，你正在談論多年的運行。這是否就是推動全年獲利指引重新納入考量的根源？

No. I mean we -- you notice it's not numeric, and we're not giving quarterly. We debated a long time about whether we should give a number. But I think in the kind of the environment that there's a lot of moving pieces. We thought it would be good to give a little more specificity on it. Just at the outset of this year, I don't think we're going to give quarterly guidance or anything like that or even a numeric EPS, it's just kind of -- we wanted to set kind of the range for the year, given everything we're seeing both at D&S and Marine.

不，我的意思是我們——你會注意到它不是數字，而且我們不會每季提供一次。關於是否應該給出一個數字，我們爭論了很長時間。但我認為在這樣的環境中，有許多令人感動的事情。我們認為最好對其進行更具體的說明。就在今年年初，我認為我們不會提供季度指導或類似的東西，甚至是數位每股收益，這只是 - 我們想設定今年的範圍，考慮到我們在 D&S 和 Marine 看到的一切。

Okay. And then I -- and then we kind of changed -- I guess, we reported delay days, I guess they're obviously up sequentially because of weather. Any kind of way to quantify that EPS impact? I mean, was that a couple of pennies? Was it more? Any kind of color around that? Or do we -- yes.

好的。然後我——然後我們有點改變——我想，我們報告了延遲天數，我想它們顯然是由於天氣原因而連續增加的。有什麼方法可以量化 EPS 影響？我的意思是，那是幾便士嗎？還多嗎？周圍有什麼顏色嗎？或者我們——是的。

Yes. I mean, delay days were up a lot as you heard sequentially. It's hard to quantify. It's -- there's so many moving pieces. So far in January has been brutal at the same -- you'll remember, first quarter of '23 was a really tough quarter from weather delay. January is as bad as last year. We'll see what February brings, it's hard to predict. But it has a real impact. I mean you see our margins dip down in -- usually in the fourth quarter and the first quarter because of weather. It could be anywhere from a couple of hundred basis points in that range.

是的。我的意思是，正如您所聽到的那樣，延誤天數增加了很多。很難量化。這是——有很多移動的部分。到目前為止，一月份的情況仍然很殘酷——你會記得，由於天氣原因，23 年第一季是一個非常艱難的季度。一月的情況和去年一樣糟糕。我們將看看二月會帶來什麼，這很難預測。但它確實有影響。我的意思是，你會看到我們的利潤率下降——通常是在第四季度和第一季度，因為天氣原因。它可能是該範圍內幾百個基點的任何地方。

But it's really hard to say. As you know, Greg, we have time charters and we have contracts of affreightment. And those contracts of affreightment, hurt us a little bit in the winter weather, but they help us a lot in the summer weather. I would also say that as it -- with respect to the first quarter, one of the things we did see, and that's reflected in our guidance here, is there was a freeze and it impacted some of the refineries and chemical plants in January, and they're still coming out of that. So that -- it's all in there.

但這確實很難說。如你所知，格雷格，我們有定期租船合同，也有貨運合約。這些貨運合約在冬季對我們造成了一些傷害，但在夏季卻為我們帶來了很大幫助。我還要說的是，就第一季而言，我們確實看到的一件事，也反映在我們的指導中，就是出現了凍結，一月份影響了一些煉油廠和化工廠，他們仍在走出困境。所以——一切都在那裡。

It's still multifaceted.

它仍然是多方面的。

Yes. And that's why we kind of look at it trying to rebase everybody here to look at it from a year-over-year for the whole year average because there's so many moving parts with weather, lock delays, hurricanes. Hopefully, we don't have a hurricane this year, but lots of moving parts. I hope that helps, Greg. I wish I could be more...

是的。這就是為什麼我們試圖重新調整這裡每個人的基準，從全年平均水平的角度來看待它，因為天氣、鎖定延誤、颶風等因素會帶來很多變化。希望今年不會發生颶風，但會有很多變化。我希望這會有所幫助，格雷格。我希望我能更...

Yes, yes. No. Like I said, yes, I guess, I mean, it's just interesting because I think it kind of needs to be quantified with those numbers. And then I did -- just in terms of the guidance, you mentioned the potential opportunity in chemicals. Is that a function of -- and I don't follow the chemicals industry maybe as closely as I should. Is that a function of -- could you kind of talk a little bit about broad strokes, why we could see maybe chemicals be a little better than -- why that could help drive some upside at the high end of the range?

是的是的。不，就像我說的，是的，我想，我的意思是，這很有趣，因為我認為它需要用這些數字來量化。然後我就這樣做了——就指導而言，您提到了化學品領域的潛在機會。這是一個函數嗎？我可能沒有像我應該的那樣密切關注化學工業。這是一個功能 - 你能稍微談談大體情況嗎？為什麼我們可以看到化學物質可能比 - 為什麼這可以幫助推動該範圍高端的一些上漲？

Yes. Look, in the fourth quarter, we saw the chemical industry pull back a little bit. The volumes pulled back a little bit. We haven't seen China reemerge in terms of chemical demand back to where they used to be. So if that started in earnest begin, it would just help volumes. As you know, we move a lot of chemicals on the Inland waterways, and it'd just be very constructive for us to see growth in that.

是的。你看，第四季度，我們看到化學工業有一點回落。成交量略有回落。我們還沒有看到中國的化學品需求重新回到原來的水平。因此，如果認真開始，這只會有助於銷量。如您所知，我們在內陸水道上運輸大量化學品，看到這方面的成長對我們來說非常有建設性。

And if it came back -- now we are seeing in January a little uptick in chemical movements. But it's kind of one of those things on the margin that could help us and get us closer to that high end of the range.

如果它回來了——現在我們看到一月份化學運動略有上升。但這是邊緣事物之一，可以幫助我們並使我們更接近該範圍的高端。

(Operator Instructions) Our last question will come from Greg Wistakowski of Webber Research & Advisory.

（操作員說明）我們的最後一個問題將來自韋伯研究與顧問公司的 Greg Wistakowski。

So I wanted to ask you, David, what are you seeing out there on the order book right now on the Inland side of things? And I know rates are still ways off of making that equation makes sense to build new. But the movements that you're seeing out there, does it give you any sense of concern at all? Or do you think it's kind of widely understood throughout the industry that any chunks of orders here would be a function of either owners biting the bullet for the sake of customer satisfaction or customer retention and/or fleet renewal? Is there -- where are we in terms of not necessarily for the economics, but in terms of sentiment and making sure that nobody panics?

所以我想問你，大衛，你現在在內陸方面的訂單簿上看到了什麼？我知道，利率距離使這個方程式有意義以建立新的方程式還有很長的路要走。但你看到的這些動向是否讓你感到擔憂呢？或者您認為整個行業都普遍認為，這裡的任何大量訂單都將是船東為了客戶滿意度或客戶保留和/或機隊更新而咬緊牙關的結果？就經濟而言，但在情緒和確保沒有人恐慌方面，我們處於什麼位置？

Yes. No, this isn't precise, but we think there are only 24 -- 25 liquid barges on order for 2024 delivery. Certainly, nobody is panic. I think referenced this in some earlier comments, but most of our competitors and including us, we're very busy just trying to maintain our fleet with this maintenance bubble to fitness. So that's soaking up a lot of capital for -- in finances for a lot of our competitors, including us.

是的。不，這並不準確，但我們認為 2024 年交付的液體駁船訂單量僅為 24 至 25 艘。當然，沒有人感到恐慌。我想在之前的一些評論中提到了這一點，但是我們的大多數競爭對手，包括我們在內，我們都非常忙於透過這種維護泡沫來維護我們的機隊。因此，這為包括我們在內的許多競爭對手的財務吸收了大量資金。

I mean we're spending a lot more. You heard our maintenance CapEx is up a lot in the last couple of years. And so nobody is really panicking and trying to go out and build any new equipment right now. It's -- everybody's pretty absorbed and disciplined right now just trying to keep their current fleet running.

我的意思是我們花費更多。您聽說我們的維護資本支出在過去幾年增加了很多。因此，現在沒有人真正感到恐慌並試圖出去建造任何新設備。現在每個人都非常專注並遵守紀律，只是想保持現有車隊的運作。

Okay. Great. That makes sense. And then you kind of alluded to this before on labor and mariner's availability. But could you remind us how many or what percentage of towboats you guys are chartering in currently or expect to for the coming year? And then any commentary on labor constraints and wage increases kind of affecting the availability and cost of chartering in?

好的。偉大的。這就說得通了。然後你之前提到過關於勞動力和海員可用性的問題。但您能否提醒我們，您目前正在租用或預計明年租用的拖船數量或百分比是多少？那麼，對於勞動力限制和工資上漲是否會影響包機的可用性和成本，有什麼評論嗎？

Yes. Look, mariners are short across the board, whether it's in the charter fleet or owned fleet. We operate probably 290 inland towboats and 28, 27 offshore. Our charter fleet, we don't get too specific on it, but it's in the 60% range. We're -- we're seeing labor pressure across the board and just getting qualified mariners, I think what happened is kind of interesting, people -- there was a trucker shortage, and there was a lot of shortages of labor.

是的。看看，無論是包租船隊還是自有船隊，海員都是全面短缺的。我們經營大約 290 艘內陸拖船和 28 艘、27 艘近海拖船。我們的包機機隊，我們沒有太具體地說明，但它在 60% 的範圍內。我們——我們看到了全面的勞動力壓力，並且剛剛獲得合格的海員，我認為發生的事情很有趣，人們——卡車司機短缺，勞動力也嚴重短缺。

And a lot of people kind of moved away from maybe the marine side. They may be moving back now, but it's tough to find qualified mariners. That's why we have our own school. It's a very skilled set of -- well, it's a high set of skills to push a football field full of barges with a towboat on a river that's moving with wind blowing, these are highly skilled individuals, including the tankerman and the deck hands on that.

很多人可能已經離開了海軍一側。他們現在可能要回去了，但很難找到合格的水手。這就是為什麼我們有自己的學校。這是一套非常熟練的技能——嗯，用一艘拖船在隨風移動的河流上推動裝滿駁船的足球場，這是一套很高超的技能，這些都是高技能的人，包括油輪工人和甲板上的實際操作人員。那。

So Yes. I'm rambling a bit here, Greg, sorry about that. But we are seeing labor pressure, both on the charter side and the owned side. It's just -- there's just a shortage of them. We're trying to train them as fast as we can, but it takes a while to train for these very specific tasks. These are very highly skilled.

所以是的。我在這裡有點漫無目的，格雷格，對此感到抱歉。但我們看到了包租方和自有方的勞動力壓力。只是——他們只是短缺。我們正在嘗試盡可能快地訓練它們，但需要一段時間來訓練這些非常具體的任務。這些都是非常熟練的。

Okay. Yes, I appreciate that. How do you think it -- like how do you think the industry kind of solves that problem? I mean I know you guys have your school and have a method, but just industry-wide, is it simply a function of rates getting to a place where wages can increase enough to attract additional labor back into the industry? Or do you think -- like is it a solvable issue? Do you see it getting solved over time? Or do you think it's just a necessary evil in the future?

好的。是的，我很欣賞這一點。你覺得怎麼樣——比如你認為這個行業是如何解決這個問題的？我的意思是，我知道你們有自己的學校，也有方法，但就整個行業而言，這僅僅是利率的函數，工資可以增加到足以吸引更多勞動力回到該行業的程度嗎？或者你認為──這是一個可以解決的問題嗎？隨著時間的推移，你認為這個問題會得到解決嗎？還是你認為這只是未來必要的罪？

No. I mean crewing is always a bit of a challenge. Look, I mean, living on a boat is -- it's a different lifestyle, right? I mean, some of our guys worked 30 on and then 30 off for 2 weeks on, 1 week off, not being home every night is a challenge. So it's a specific lifestyle that's hard to fell, just because you're away from home and family a lot. So there's that natural tension away from it from a kind of a life balance standpoint.

不，我的意思是船員總是有點挑戰。聽著，我的意思是，住在船上是一種不同的生活方式，對嗎？我的意思是，我們的一些人工作 30 小時，然後休息 30 小時，工作 2 週，休息 1 週，每天晚上不回家是一個挑戰。因此，這是一種很難放棄的特定生活方式，因為你經常遠離家鄉和家人。因此，從某種生活平衡的角度來看，自然的緊張感遠離了它。

That said, we do pay well. I think our industry plays really, really well. We recruit in high schools, last year, we hired 300 new deck mariners. And we're doing everything we can. I think it solves itself. We'll keep running as a business, but that is part of the reasons rates have to go up, Greg, to your point.

也就是說，我們的薪水確實不錯。我認為我們的產業發展得非常非常好。我們在高中招聘，去年我們僱用了 300 名新甲板水手。我們正在竭盡全力。我認為它可以自行解決。我們將繼續作為一家企業運營，但這就是利率必須上漲的部分原因，格雷格，正如你所說。

With all the inflation and the training facility that we have, Greg, helps us a lot. And it's a differentiator for us.

由於通貨膨脹和我們擁有的培訓設施，格雷格對我們幫助很大。這對我們來說是一個與眾不同的因素。

And this concludes our Q&A session. I would now like to turn the conference back to Mr. Kurt Niemietz for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想請庫爾特·尼米茨先生致閉幕詞。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. Any follow-up questions, please reach out to me directly.

謝謝運營商，也謝謝大家加入我們。任何後續問題，請直接與我聯繫。

This conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

本次會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。