Johnson Outdoors Inc (JOUT) 2012 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Johnson Outdoors first-quarter 2012 earnings conference call. Today's call will be led by Helen Johnson-Leipold, Johnson Outdoor's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Also on the call is David Johnson, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Prior to the question-and-answer session all participants will be placed in a listen-only mode. After the prepared remarks the question-and-answer session will begin. (Operator Instructions). This call is being recorded; your participation implies consent to our recording this call. If you do not agree to these terms simply drop off the line. I would now like to turn the call over to Cynthia Georgeson from Johnson Outdoors. Please go ahead, Miss Georgeson.

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, everyone; thank you for joining us for our discussion of Johnson Outdoors' results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2012. If you need a copy of the news release we issued this morning, it's available on the Johnson Outdoors website at www.JohnsonOutdoors.com under Investor Relations.

Before I turn the call over to Helen, I need to remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements intended to qualify for the Safe Harbor from liability established by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Statements other than statements of historical fact are considered forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Johnson Outdoors' control, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in or implied by such forward-looking statements.

These risks and uncertainties include those listed in our media release from today and our filings with the SEC. If you have further questions after the call, please call Dave Johnson or me at 262-631-6600. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Helen Johnson-Leipold.

Good morning, I hope you've had an opportunity to review our first fiscal quarter earnings announcement. I'll start off with comments on the results, share our outlook on outdoor rec markets this year and provide perspective on the future. Dave will cover some key financials, then we'll take your questions.

Net sales for the quarter rose slightly above last year to $80.2 million. Increased demand Marine Electronics particularly in Humminbird and strong year-end close-out orders in Watercraft more than offset a 66% decline in military sales.

Due to the seasonality of the warm weather outdoor rec industry Johnson Outdoors historically records a loss in the first fiscal quarter. Ongoing efforts to reduce infrastructure and asset costs contributed to higher losses this quarter; however, the longer-term benefit of these actions outweighs the one-time impact on bottom-line results. Dave will discuss this more in detail in his comments.

As we've said before, steady recovery of outdoor recreational markets is key to our continued progress against our current strategic plan to ensure sustained profitability. The competition for discretionary dollars is very tough and current economic conditions in key regions present a mixed picture of expectations for outdoor markets the remainder of the year.

It's far too early to get a crystal-clear view on how the year will unfold, but here are some initial indicators into the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. First let's look at the US which represents about two-thirds of Johnson Outdoors' revenue.

In the US outdoor industry holiday sales were strong which is unusually -- is usually a good sign. However, lackluster winter season has left many retailers, including outdoor specialty retailers, with inflated inventory.

The outdoor specialty channel is a key focus for our Outdoor Gear and Watercraft businesses and retailers in this channel may be skittish about taking in too much inventory too soon ahead of the warm weather season. That means orders for tents, canoes and kayaks may come much closer to the retail selling period of these products.

Our specialty retailer programs were redesigned to give these small business owners the flexibility needed to adjust accordingly to changing marketplace conditions. Our challenge will be to improve operational efficiency amidst the fluctuations particularly in Watercraft.

Two unique proprietary sources of marketplace information are providing valuable insights to guide our efforts. First, TPI, our unique trading partner intelligence system which gives visibility into weekly warehouse and retail inventory movement across our largest customers. TPI allows us to identify and track trends in the marketplace and our Johnson Outdoors online ordering and tracking system, which we call [BOATS].

The system was launched last year to allow paddle specialty dealers 24/7 access and information on orders and shipments. Aside from the ease and convenience for dealers comes the ability for us to ship production based on real demand in the BOATS system.

Moving on to North America Marine markets where boat manufacturers are already projecting sales to be flat with 2011, we believe the most important indicator -- we believe this is the most important indicator of the strength of the Marine market -- is the consumer sell-through which occurs in the second and third quarters.

Minn Kota and Humminbird are both market leaders and among a handful of $100 million brands in our space. Investments in new technology and new segments will continue during 2012 to help ensure a healthy pipeline of new products for our brands in the future.

Point of sales data in the Diving market is limited, so we use dive certification levels to get insight into both participation in the sport as well as potential demand for gear. Certification levels in the US have remained fairly constant over the past few years as has the market.

Our focus is on growing share and we've achieved that by leveraging Scubapro to gain distribution for SubGear across our elite dealer network. This year we're targeting expansion of SubGear beyond our existing dealer network to gain additional market share.

Outside of the US, key Asian markets are holding their own, particularly in China and Southeast Asian countries. Japan is clearly on the upswing following the year's tragic events, although not fully recovered. A rebound in Japan is important for Pacific Rim dive markets like Australia and New Zealand which thrive on Japanese tourism.

Moving on to Europe, there are two distinctly different snares at play. On the one hand Northern Europe markets appear to be the most stable in the region while uncertainty looms in Southern Europe. We have restructured in the south to strengthen operations long-term and improve the profitability profile of every unit in the region.

In Diving and Watercraft we streamlined with a focus on aligning organizational capabilities and capacity against key regional priorities and local opportunities. And in Marine Electronics we transitioned from a stand-alone company to a lower cost distributor model in Italy. These actions removed more than $1 million from our cost structure going forward.

So a mixed picture across our markets for 2012. However, we believe our market leading brands are well positioned to continue to grow share in the coming year. Our market leadership has been built on an outstanding legacy of innovation and this year our portfolio boasts an array of award winning new products.

These include the ultra-spacious Eureka! Mansard Tent named an Editor's Choice by Camping Life magazine, the big-screen Humminbird 1158c down imaging fish finder and GPS combo which received the coveted Best in Show Electronics at ICAST, the largest fishing accessory show in the world.

The lightweight compact Scubapro C200 first and second stage breathing regulators featured amongst the best of the best in Sports Diver magazine Gear Guide. And the sleek easy paddling Necky Vector 13 kayak, a Prestigious Gear of the Year selection by Nat Geo Adventure magazine which said, the Vector 13 will make you rethink just how cool the category can be.

Our product innovation is matched by equally inventive marketing and sales programs to drive purchase. Over the past few years we've put a lot of emphasis on eMarketing and it's paying off for customers and consumers.

Shopatron, our eCommerce solution, enables our brands to reach consumers directly while still supporting our trade partners. Consumers place an order online for our brands and behind the scenes retailers bid to fulfill it. Consumers love the online convenience, retailers get new business and we build brand awareness and loyalty and strengthen partnerships efficiently and effectively.

eMarketing can help boost awareness and sales for smaller brands like Cannon electric down rears which saw a 50% increase in Shopatron sales from 2010 to 2011 and Tech4o performance instruments which generated 39% of its sales from eCommerce channels in 2011. Likewise social media has helped fuel additional interest in sales for bigger brands like Humminbird and Minn Kota.

As I said before, it's too early to predict how the year will go and there are too many variables at play. That's why our focus remains on controlling what we can, doing the right things to sustain marketplace momentum, gain additional share and strengthen operations. In other words, staying the course.

At the same time we're looking beyond 2012 to define the way forward in delivering even more value to our consumers, our customers and our shareholders in the future. In addition to an in-depth analysis of outdoor rec markets and opportunities we're also looking carefully at macro and micro trends which could impact or influence those in some way.

Importantly, there is both qualitative and quantitative evidence indicating a fundamental shift in how value is defined by the marketplace as well as the Street. As a company that competes on price/value, our new strategic plan will address this changing value proposition in outlining the steps necessary to ensure continued success and profitability in the years ahead.

I look forward to sharing our final plan with you later in the year. And now I'd like to turn things over to Dave Johnson, CFO, to discuss the financial highlights. Dave?

Thank you, Helen. Let me start out by reminding everyone that the first-quarter results are not indicative of the full-year performance. It's our slowest quarter and reflects the ramp up for the primary selling period of our products over the next six months.

As you can see, despite higher sales working capital was flat and inventory is down $5 million versus the prior year quarter. Cash to cash days are also favorable by three days. Debt is $13 million below prior year and interest expense is also favorable to the prior year. And we've had positive cash flow for the trailing 12-month period.

Obviously the anomaly in the results comparison is higher losses on higher sales. A slight declining gross margin had nominal impact on the quarterly loss. The key driver was higher operating expenses which fall into three buckets.

One, restructuring charges of $1.1 million. Helen explained what we've done in Europe to bring costs down which accounted for about $700,000 of these charges. The rest came from the asset write-off associated with our donation of the historic Old Town Canoe building to the city of Old Town, Maine.

Two, external drivers which added $600,000 to expenses. Legal fees increased year over year as did bad debt write-off in Europe. I'm not concerned about either one currently, but we're keeping a very careful eye on Europe receivables.

Three, sales-related expenses. Freight expense and commissions fall under here as do advertising and promotional dollars. In total increased spending in these areas accounted for another $700,000 of additional operating expense.

Just to reiterate what Helen said, we feel good about our plans and our position heading into the season. And at this time we remain focused on driving continued progress against our 2012 plan. Now I'll turn the call back over to the operator for questions. Operator?

(Operator Instructions). James Fonda, Sidoti & Company.

The operating expense stuff seems pretty self explanatory. But I guess if things fall apart in Europe, I mean do you think it will have a major impact on your business? Or you think you'll be able to mitigate everything?

Good question. Europe's about 20% of our revenue base roughly, so it just depends. It depends on what happens in the marketplace. We're doing everything we can now to make sure we're nimble and we can react both positively and negatively. So it's hard to answer that question.

I guess in terms of the military business, do you expect further sales declines in this segment going forward or could things be bottoming out here? I mean, do you have any thoughts on that segment?

Yes, I think we should see comps to be -- the bad comps are probably over now. Last year military was about $5 million revenue in the prior year quarter and this year it's about $1.7 million. And I know we've said before we think sustainability in the mid-teens. But I think right now we're kind of at a place where we think the comp comparisons are okay now.

Okay, all right. And I guess -- I know you mentioned the inflated inventory in some of your retailers. Are you seeing that pretty much all across the board or is it just more some retailers over others or do have any ideas on that?

There's not a consistency across retailers and actually it depends. If they did a heavy business in the winter sports, then they may have a little more inventory. Some don't deal in the winter sports, but -- so it's not consistent. But it's really related to the warm winter.

Right, okay. And I know since it's a mixed picture in fiscal '12 -- in terms of your investments in new technologies, do you think fiscal '12, it's going to be a little bit higher spending in R&D than the previous years or would it be relatively the same?

Well, we have mentioned that we have invested in R&D in our Marine Electronics business, which we absolutely think is the right thing to do. So you'll see some increase on that end. But technology to provide the innovation is critical. So it will be a little higher this year, but it's all good.

Yes, I agree with you. And I guess finally, David, do you have a tax rate that I might be able to forecast out for fiscal '12 and fiscal '13?

I think we're forecasting in the high 30's -- like 37% or so.

All right. That's all I have, guys, thank you.

(Operator Instructions). Brian Rafn, Morgan Dempsey Capital.

If you look -- go back to military sales, is that just specifically tents or do you guys sell folding chairs and sleeping bags and other things to the military?

We specifically sell tents to the military. So it's related to the tent business.

Okay, now, given the fact that as you see military units coming home, the history of the US military has been to abandon equipment. Obviously we're seeing some very large strategic weapon platforms, ballistic missile subs, intercontinental bombers, that type of thing, being curtailed.

As the military returns, they abandon this equipment, do you get a sense, are you hearing anything visibility wise that there may be a replenishment cycle to that type of thing after these two Persian Gulf campaigns?

We don't have a lot of visibility into what they're thinking and also what they're thinking doesn't necessarily always play out in what they spend because the money kind of gets trapped in different places. Again, that's hard to predict. But as Dave said, I think the first quarter is not indicative of the year, it's truly a pacing thing. And we're hoping that year on year we can hold it steady.

Okay, let me ask you the military a little differently. Has it been your experience that the military could just suddenly show up out of the blue and say here's a PO or here's what we're looking for? Or would you see subtle clues that there's a replenishment cycle?

I would say it is a little more on the spontaneous side than not, which makes it a difficult -- that's part of the difficulty of dealing with the military is not a lot of planning ahead of time that they share with us.

Okay, okay. And then on the military side, is there any differentiation between Army, Army National Guard or Marine units? Or is a collectively a purchase that you don't even know where these tents are going?

You know what, there are many different factions that we deal with, so we do know where they're going and we connect with all the different factions of the military in this. But again, I think they're all in the same boat in terms of where their funding comes from and sometimes that's the difficulty.

Sure, sure. You mentioned, and I wanted to get this right, you mentioned about -- and correct me if I'm wrong -- about a shift in value kind of price quality. Is that a comment that I heard correctly or is it more elasticity, sensitivity, price? Because you guys have always built in premium quality brands.

I think as we refer to it as the new normal and we're trying to define that. But we do think that certainly the price value has become I think more important to the consumer and to some degree that helps us because we do deliver the value. But we just need to make sure that we understand exactly the consumer mindset in each of our businesses because it will drive some of our product development going forward.

Okay, okay. Let me ask you -- you talked about the first quarter being seasonally the weakest. Are there specific product lines like the fish finder locators or specifically smaller items, scuba gear, that lend themselves to a holiday Christmas sale?

I would say that it's more in -- it's been Marine Electronics that -- on the Humminbird side that is more conducive and I would say there is some consumer tents that lend themselves. But the Christmas season has not necessarily been a big time for us. We have leveraged the Black Friday event to help us get rid of some of our excess inventory and that helps. But in general we're not a significant holiday item.

Okay, okay. You talked about -- you made a -- you started to plan for the development rolling out SubGear leverage off of Scubapro. How many -- I'm assuming that's primarily a specialty boutique dive shop type sale. How many door fronts might you be selling across the world? Would you be thousands, tens of thousands? How many, I'm just curious?

I would say it's in the thousands and it is -- 95% of the diving sales that we participate in are through the specialty dive dealer network. And so it's very fragmented and there's a lot of little dealers around the world.

Okay. Of those thousands of dive shops, how many of them today that are Scubapro vendors would also now be adding SubGear?

Well, it's hard to say. I mean, we've -- Scubapro is an iconic brand and I think they like us in that premium space and getting them to think of us as having two brands, one in the mid-price point, is a little bit of an educational process. So I think over time we will have a significant portion of our dealers distributing the SubGear brand.

But I think one of the opportunities with SubGear is it allows us to open up dealers that potentially aren't doing Scubapro. We have a very exclusive distribution strategy for Scubapro and the SubGear brand allows us to be a little more open with our distribution policy.

So it does provide us an opportunity to increase penetration among more dealers as well as go into current dealers and that will be -- it's working well, Europe we launched ahead of US and it's way ahead of budget over there. And I think it just seems to be taking a little longer but we feel pretty good about it. It will continue to grow in our minds.

Okay. If you look at the SubGear, Helen, could you -- as you bring that medium -- median quality point down, a little more affordability within [elastic] consumer is that something that someday could be in a big box, the category super store, the Dick's Sporting Goods or Sports Authority or a Cabela's -- is there anything that you could bring that down or is it always going to be a dealer?

Just so you know, I mean we -- the difference between the two brands is not quality because we -- this is a life-support business. We do high quality in both. What we do is we don't offer the same features or function that we do in Scubapro. So the quality is certainly the best in both.

But I would say this SubGear brand was not meant to play in the big box and that's not the role for it, it still is a very high quality scuba brand. I think it will emphasize more of the soft goods versus the hard goods. But it still holds a very solid position in the mid-price point and not dropping down in quality or price, certainly that it would -- that is currently being circulated in the bigger box stores.

Okay, I'll ask just one more and get back in line. For Dave, cost of goods sold, are you seeing any commodity feedstocks -- plastics, metal, stainless -- anything that's going up? And then if you have a budget for CapEx for 2012?

Yes. I think commodities are -- they're not going down, but we haven't seen significant increases yet for the most part. Some metals, they've kind of been going up a little bit, but it hasn't been significant. In terms of capital spending I think we'll see a little bit of an increase versus last year. I think right around $10 million to $11 million I think is a reasonable number.

Okay, thanks.

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Helen Johnson-Leipold for closing remarks.

Thanks, everyone, for joining us. Once again, if you have further questions, please give either Dave or Cynthia a call. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.