JELD-WEN Holding Inc (JELD) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to welcome James Armstrong, Vice President of Investor Relations to begin the call. James, over to you.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加 JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。現在我歡迎投資者關係副總裁詹姆斯阿姆斯壯開始電話會議。詹姆斯，交給你了。

Thank you, and good morning. We issued our third quarter 2023 earnings release last night and posted a slide presentation to the Investor Relations portion of our website, which can be found at investor.jeld-wen.com. We will be referencing this presentation during our call. Today, I'm joined by Bill Christensen, Chief Executive Officer; and Julie Albrecht, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，早安。我們昨晚發布了 2023 年第三季收益報告，並在我們網站的投資者關係部分發布了幻燈片演示，該部分可在 Investor.jeld-wen.com 上找到。我們將在電話會議期間參考此簡報。今天，執行長比爾克里斯滕森 (Bill Christensen) 也加入了我的行列。和財務長朱莉·阿爾布雷希特。

Before I turn it over to Bill, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we will make certain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our earnings release and provided in our Forms 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. JELD-WEN does not undertake any duty to update forward-looking statements, including the guidance we are providing with respect to certain expectations for future results. Additionally, during today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating our performance. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable financial measures calculated under GAAP can be found in our earnings release and in the appendix to our earnings presentation.

在我把它交給比爾之前，我想提醒大家，在這次電話會議中，我們將做出某些構成1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述的陳述。這些陳述受到各種因素的影響。風險和不確定性，包括我們的收益報告中規定的風險和不確定性以及我們向 SEC 提交的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格中提供的風險和不確定性。 JELD-WEN 不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的責任，包括我們針對未來結果的某些預期提供的指導。此外，在今天的電話會議中，我們將討論非公認會計準則衡量標準，我們認為這些衡量標準有助於評估我們的績效。不應孤立地考慮此附加資訊的呈現，也不應將其視為根據 GAAP 準備的結果的替代品。這些非公認會計原則指標與根據公認會計原則計算的最直接可比較的財務指標的調節可以在我們的收益報告和收益報告的附錄中找到。

With that, I would like to now turn the call over to Bill.

現在，我想將電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, James, and thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. I'm pleased to report that our third quarter results were better than we expected marking the third quarter in a row that we have executed well against our short-term goals to strengthen the foundation of JELD-WEN. I want to thank the entire JELD-WEN team for their continued hard work especially as we operate in a challenging business environment and progress on our performance improvement activities. Today, I will first provide a brief overview of our third quarter results before turning it over to Julie to discuss the financial results in more detail. I will then highlight our transformation journey and share some of what you can expect from us going forward.

謝謝詹姆斯，也謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。我很高興地報告，我們第三季的業績優於我們的預期，這標誌著我們連續第三個季度很好地實現了鞏固 JELD-WEN 基礎的短期目標。我要感謝整個 JELD-WEN 團隊的持續辛勤工作，特別是在我們在充滿挑戰的商業環境中運營以及我們的績效改進活動取得進展的情況下。今天，我將首先簡要概述我們第三季的業績，然後交給朱莉更詳細地討論財務業績。然後，我將重點介紹我們的轉型之旅，並分享您對我們未來的一些期望。

I'll begin with our third quarter highlights on Slide 4. While sales were in line with our expectations, earnings were above our forecast, primarily due to continued solid price/cost results. We also continue to generate strong cash flows driven by earnings and working capital improvements. I'm also pleased that we are delivering on our commitments to simplify the business and better balance our cost structure. We completed the divestiture of our Australasia business early in the third quarter and repaid $450 million of long-term debt with the proceeds. In addition, we continue to remove fixed cost from our business, including certain site closures in North America that I'll discuss more on the next slide. We are also actively planning actions to further improve our performance and unlock significant value for JELD-WEN shareholders, which I'll talk about later in my remarks.

我將從幻燈片 4 上的第三季亮點開始。雖然銷售額符合我們的預期，但收益高於我們的預測，這主要是由於持續穩定的價格/成本結果。在獲利和營運資本改善的推動下，我們也持續產生強勁的現金流。我還很高興我們兌現了簡化業務和更好地平衡成本結構的承諾。我們在第三季初完成了澳洲業務的剝離，並用所得款項償還了 4.5 億美元的長期債務。此外，我們繼續消除業務中的固定成本，包括關閉北美的某些工廠，我將在下一張投影片中詳細討論這一點。我們也積極規劃行動，以進一步提高我們的業績並為 JELD-WEN 股東釋放巨大價值，我將在稍後的演講中討論這一點。

Turning to Slide 5. As part of our ongoing activities to strengthen our foundation, we continue to reduce our fixed costs with the closure or announced closure of 3 facilities. First, we completed the closure of our Atlanta Doors facility during the third quarter. As we discussed earlier this year, we anticipate approximately $11 million per year in EBITDA savings as a result of this site closure. Next, we are in the process of closing our International Wood Products, or IWP business in Tijuana in Mexico. This facility primarily makes specialty exterior wood doors and as consumer preferences continue to move towards fiberglass, this operation has become non-core to our business. Although the savings are relatively small at approximately $2 million a year, it is a further simplification.

轉向投影片 5。作為我們持續加強基礎活動的一部分，我們透過關閉或宣布關閉 3 個設施來繼續降低固定成本。首先，我們在第三季完成了亞特蘭大門工廠的關閉。正如我們今年早些時候討論的那樣，我們預計由於工廠關閉，每年可節省約 1100 萬美元的 EBITDA。接下來，我們正在關閉墨西哥蒂華納的國際木製品（IWP）業務。該工廠主要生產特種外木門，隨著消費者偏好繼續轉向玻璃纖維，該業務已成為我們業務的非核心。雖然節省的金額相對較小，每年約為 200 萬美元，但這是進一步的簡化。

Finally, we announced the closure of the Vista, California Vinyl Windows manufacturing facility, which was underutilized and had a high operating cost. We expect to save approximately $8 million a year by moving the production to other facilities within our network and therefore, better utilizing existing capacity. We continue to see opportunities for further simplification of our footprint, which I look forward to speaking about in the future as we execute our plans.

最後，我們宣布關閉位於加州維斯塔的乙烯基窗戶製造工廠，該工廠未充分利用且運作成本很高。透過將生產轉移到網路內的其他設施，我們預計每年可節省約 800 萬美元，從而更好地利用現有產能。我們繼續看到進一步簡化我們足跡的機會，我期待在未來執行我們的計劃時談論這一點。

I'll now turn it over to Julie, to go through our third quarter financial performance in more detail.

現在我將把它交給朱莉，更詳細地介紹我們第三季的財務表現。

Thanks, Bill. Turning to Slide 7. You see our consolidated results for the third quarter of 2023. Our third quarter revenue was approximately $1.1 billion, down 5.5% from a year ago. Driven by a reduction in our core revenue due to market-driven volume reductions, partially offset by slightly higher pricing. Our adjusted EBITDA was approximately $106 million in the quarter, leading to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 9.8%. This strong year-over-year margin improvement of 150 basis points despite lower volumes, reflects our solid execution of productivity actions in areas such as site closures, head count reductions, freight management savings and sourcing optimization.

謝謝，比爾。轉向投影片 7。您可以看到我們 2023 年第三季的綜合業績。我們第三季的營收約為 11 億美元，比去年同期下降 5.5%。由於市場驅動的銷售減少導致我們的核心收入減少，但部分被略高的定價所抵消。本季調整後 EBITDA 約 1.06 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 9.8%。儘管銷量有所下降，但利潤率同比強勁增長了 150 個基點，這反映出我們在關閉工廠、減少員工人數、節省貨運管理和優化採購等領域切實執行了生產力行動。

As you see on Slide 8, our third quarter revenue decline was driven by lower volume mix of 10%, which was partially offset by 3% of price realization. This higher pricing mostly relates to our price increases in the second half of last year to offset cost inflation. I'll provide additional comments about our North America and Europe volume trends shortly. And also, you'll find a revenue walk, including segment details for the third quarter and the first 9 months of this year in the appendix of our earnings presentation.

正如您在幻燈片 8 中看到的那樣，我們第三季度的收入下降是由於 10% 的銷量下降造成的，但價格實現的 3% 部分抵消了這一下降。這種較高的定價主要與我們去年下半年為抵銷成本通膨而漲價有關。我將很快提供有關北美和歐洲銷售趨勢的更多評論。此外，您還可以在我們收益報告的附錄中找到收入動態，包括第三季和今年前 9 個月的細分詳細資訊。

On Slide 9, you see that our adjusted EBITDA increased by approximately $11 million year-over-year. We generated solid profitability contributions from favorable price cost and improved productivity, which were partially offset by the impact from lower volume mix. Related to price cost, we are focused on pricing discipline as we continue to see inflation in our overall costs. While inflation is lower in certain areas, we see cost pressures in areas such as labor and insurance. Additionally, we are on track to achieve approximately $100 million in cost savings this year. In the third quarter, we realized approximately $30 million of these savings that are reflected on our EBITDA bridge in productivity and SG&A. Our run rate is increasing due to the timing of actions that started earlier this year.

在投影片 9 上，您可以看到我們調整後的 EBITDA 年比增加了約 1100 萬美元。有利的價格成本和生產力的提高為我們帶來了堅實的獲利貢獻，但銷售下降的影響部分抵消了這一貢獻。與價格成本相關，我們專注於定價紀律，因為我們繼續看到總體成本上漲。雖然某些領域的通膨較低，但我們在勞動力和保險等領域看到了成本壓力。此外，我們今年預計將節省約 1 億美元的成本。第三季度，我們實現了約 3000 萬美元的節省，這反映在我們生產力和 SG&A 的 EBITDA 橋樑上。由於今年早些時候開始的行動時間安排，我們的運行率正在提高。

Now moving to our segment results on Slide 10. In the third quarter, our North America segment generated $790 million in sales, down approximately 5% from year ago levels. This was driven by a core revenue decline of 5%, due to lower volume mix of 7%, with a positive impact from price realization of 2%. North America had adjusted EBITDA of $100 million down 5% year-over-year, while margins remained stable at 12.6%. Despite the market-driven demand weakness, our North America team is delivering solid earnings results as well as strong cash flow. A key driver to the region's cash flow is a focus on inventory reduction which was a result of more rigorous and standardized inventory management practices.

現在轉到投影片 10 上的部門業績。第三季度，我們的北美部門銷售額為 7.9 億美元，比去年同期水準下降約 5%。這是由於銷售組合減少 7% 導致核心收入下降 5%，以及價格實現 2% 的正面影響。北美地區調整後的 EBITDA 為 1 億美元，年減 5%，而利潤率穩定在 12.6%。儘管市場驅動的需求疲軟，但我們的北美團隊仍在實現穩健的獲利業績和強勁的現金流。該地區現金流的一個關鍵驅動因素是對庫存減少的關注，這是更嚴格和標準化的庫存管理實踐的結果。

Across our North America region, the team continues to focus on identifying and executing actions to improve both operating efficiency and our working capital metrics. Europe generated $287 million in revenue and $24 million in adjusted EBITDA. Core revenues decreased by 11% in the quarter, driven by lower volume mix of 17%, which was partially offset by higher price realization of 6%. Adjusted EBITDA was 35% higher year-over-year, leading to a strong 260 basis points of margin improvement to 8.5%. This improvement was due to positive price cost results and solid productivity gains. Similar to North America, our Europe team is focused on delivering solid earnings and cash flows despite the ongoing volume challenges, and this focus will continue into 2024.

在我們的北美地區，團隊繼續專注於確定和執行行動，以提高營運效率和營運資本指標。歐洲創造了 2.87 億美元的收入和 2,400 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。本季核心收入下降 11%，原因是銷量組合下降 17%，但價格實現上漲 6% 部分抵消了這一下降。調整後 EBITDA 年成長 35%，利潤率大幅提高 260 個基點，達到 8.5%。這一改善得益於積極的價格成本結果和紮實的生產力提高。與北美類似，儘管面臨持續的銷售挑戰，我們的歐洲團隊仍專注於提供穩健的收益和現金流，而這一重點將持續到 2024 年。

Now turning to the market outlook on Slide 11 and starting with North America. We are expecting a better full year for North America than we presented on our second quarter earnings call. We now expect North America volumes to be down high single digits due to slight improvements in both single-family home construction and R&R activity versus our previous expectations. In the U.S. higher interest rates continue to impact single-family housing starts and permits, but given the lower availability of existing homes for sale and homebuilder incentives, our outlook has improved with new home construction declining 10% to 15% year-over-year compared to our previous outlook for a 15% to 20% decline.

現在轉向幻燈片 11 上的市場前景，從北美開始。我們預計北美全年的業績將優於我們在第二季財報電話會議上提出的情況。由於單戶住宅建設和 R&R 活動與我們先前的預期相比略有改善，我們現在預計北美銷售將下降高個位數。在美國，較高的利率繼續影響單戶住宅的開工和許可，但考慮到現有待售房屋的供應量較低以及房屋建築商的激勵措施，我們的前景有所改善，新屋建設同比下降10%至15%與我們先前預測的下降 15% 至 20% 相比。

For our repair and remodel markets, we now anticipate full year volumes to be down in the mid-single-digit range versus the mid- to high single-digit range previously expected. After a slow start to the third quarter, we saw a pickup in our R&R activity and believe that inventories are at critically low levels throughout the channel. In Europe, we continue to anticipate that demand will be down by low double digits as the market weakens due to the region's ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. Our European volume mix was down by 14% in the first 9 months of this year, and we expect a fourth quarter volume mix decline similar to what we experienced in the third quarter.

對於我們的維修和改造市場，我們現在預計全年銷量將下降到中個位數範圍，而先前的預期是中個位數到高個位數範圍。經過第三季度的緩慢開局後，我們看到 R&R 活動有所回升，並相信整個渠道的庫存處於極低水平。在歐洲，我們繼續預計，由於該地區持續的宏觀經濟和地緣政治挑戰導致市場疲軟，需求將出現低兩位數下降。今年前 9 個月，我們的歐洲銷量組合下降了 14%，我們預計第四季的銷量組合下降與第三季的情況類似。

On the residential side, we see broad-based declines of 15% to 40% in new residential construction starts depending on the country and in some specific markets, residential construction demand is down by as much as 80%. In addition, repair and remodel activity remains under pressure due to the continued soft macroeconomic environment. In the commercial construction market in Europe, volumes are expected to be stable in the near term, but are beginning to show signs of declining in 2024 as the market works through backlogs and new projects are being delayed.

在住宅方面，我們看到新住宅開工量普遍下降 15% 至 40%，具體取決於國家/地區，在某些特定市場，住宅建築需求下降高達 80%。此外，由於宏觀經濟環境持續疲軟，維修和改造活動仍面臨壓力。在歐洲商業建築市場，預計近期成交量將保持穩定，但由於市場正在解決積壓訂單以及新項目被推遲，2024 年成交量開始出現下降跡象。

On Slide 12, we provide our updated full year 2023 outlook for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. While we remain cautious in these continued uncertain operating conditions, we are confident in our ability to deliver our forecast and are tightening the ranges of our revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. Further, we are raising the midpoint of our adjusted EBITDA guidance due to our solid third quarter results and our unchanged outlook for the fourth quarter. We now expect full year 2023 revenues to be between $4.25 billion and $4.35 billion and full year adjusted EBITDA to be between $365 million and $375 million.

在幻燈片 12 上，我們提供了最新的 2023 年全年收入和調整後 EBITDA 展望。儘管我們對這些持續不確定的經營狀況保持謹慎，但我們對實現預測的能力充滿信心，並正在收緊收入範圍和調整後的 EBITDA 指導。此外，由於我們穩健的第三季業績和第四季度的前景不變，我們正在提高調整後 EBITDA 指導的中點。我們現在預計 2023 年全年營收將在 42.5 億美元至 43.5 億美元之間，全年調整後 EBITDA 將在 3.65 億美元至 3.75 億美元之間。

Specific to our outlook for this year's core revenue, our first 9-month core revenues were down by 2% versus the prior year as carryforward price increases mostly offset lower volume mix. In the fourth quarter, we expect a low double-digit decline in our core revenues due to reduced volumes combined with limited year-over-year price increases. All of this combines to support our updated full year outlook for core revenues being down 4% to 6%.

具體到我們對今年核心收入的展望，我們前 9 個月的核心收入比前一年下降了 2%，因為結轉價格上漲大部分抵消了銷售組合的下降。在第四季度，由於銷量減少以及同比價格上漲有限，我們預計核心收入將出現兩位數的小幅下降。所有這些綜合起來支持我們最新的全年核心收入預期下降 4% 至 6%。

Now turning to Slide 13. You can see how our results in the first 9 months of this year, combined with our outlook for the fourth quarter to support our updated full year guidance. As I've described in my comments this morning, our third quarter global price cost benefits were better than our expectations, and we continue to successfully execute our planned cost reduction initiatives. In the fourth quarter, our outlook is in line with our prior expectations, as we expect to continue delivering on our cost savings actions which mitigate the impact of lower year-over-year volumes. We remain focused on generating strong cash flows to invest in ourselves and further strengthen our balance sheet.

現在轉向幻燈片 13。您可以看到我們今年前 9 個月的業績以及我們對第四季度的展望如何支持我們更新的全年指導。正如我今天早上在評論中所描述的，我們第三季度的全球價格成本效益優於我們的預期，並且我們繼續成功執行我們計劃的成本削減措施。在第四季度，我們的前景與我們先前的預期一致，因為我們預計將繼續實施成本節約行動，以減輕同比銷量下降的影響。我們仍然專注於產生強勁的現金流來投資我們自己並進一步加強我們的資產負債表。

Our year-to-date third quarter operating cash flow was $273 million, which is a $346 million improvement over the same period last year. The primary driver to this significant increase in cash flow is improved working capital management with all components of working capital contributing to the strong improvement. We continue to see opportunities for reduced working capital as we focus on implementing best practices across our business. We are pleased to have achieved our near-term goal of net leverage below 3x and have updated our medium-term target to be between 2 and 2.5x.

年初至今，我們第三季的營運現金流為 2.73 億美元，比去年同期增加了 3.46 億美元。現金流量顯著增加的主要驅動力是營運資本管理的改善，營運資本的所有組成部分都對強勁的改善做出了貢獻。隨著我們專注於在整個業務中實施最佳實踐，我們繼續看到減少營運資本的機會。我們很高興實現淨槓桿率低於 3 倍的近期目標，並將中期目標更新為 2 至 2.5 倍。

I'll now turn it back to Bill to discuss our plans for improving JELD-WEN's financial performance.

現在我將把話題轉回 Bill，討論我們改善 JELD-WEN 財務表現的計畫。

Thanks, Julie. Before I comment on our transformation journey, I want to take a second to address the goals that JELD-WEN established in 2021. Slide 15 shows the 2025 targets JELD-WEN presented at our 2021 Investor Day. Unfortunately, instead of steadily driving results towards the goals, our performance deteriorated. It is true that macroeconomic conditions have been tough since then. However, the company did not have the foundation in place to achieve these goals. As a result, we are formally withdrawing the company's long-term targets that were communicated in 2021. As I'll speak to in a moment, we are focused on delivering in the short term and setting ourselves up for success with an increased focus on accountability.

謝謝，朱莉。在評論我們的轉型之旅之前，我想花一點時間談談 JELD-WEN 在 2021 年制定的目標。幻燈片 15 顯示了 JELD-WEN 在 2021 年投資者日上提出的 2025 年目標。不幸的是，我們的業績並沒有穩定達成目標，反而惡化了。確實，自那時以來，宏觀經濟狀況一直很艱難。然而，該公司並沒有實現這些目標的基礎。因此，我們正式撤回公司在 2021 年傳達的長期目標。正如我稍後將談到的，我們專注於在短期內實現目標，並為成功做好準備，更加關注問責制。

Moving to Slide 16. Our approach has not changed from what I've shared in previous earnings calls. In the short term, we need to continue to strengthen the foundation of our business. We are making progress reducing our footprint and our operating costs by implementing basic programs such as managed transportation. However, we have a lot more to do before we can declare success and have a strong foundation to build from. We're also beginning to prepare for the long term and are in the process of developing plans to deliver and sustain increased profitability. We are assessing opportunities to grow in each of our lines of business and want to only invest where we see potential and the right to win. This process will take time and thoughtful analysis, but we have plenty of opportunity to work with.

轉向投影片 16。我們的方法與我在先前的財報電話會議中分享的方法沒有改變。短期來看，我們需要繼續夯實業務基礎。我們透過實施管理運輸等基本計劃，在減少足跡和營運成本方面取得了進展。然而，在我們宣布成功並奠定堅實的基礎之前，我們還有很多工作要做。我們也開始為長期做好準備，並正在製定計劃以實現和維持更高的盈利能力。我們正在評估每個業務領域的發展機會，並且希望只在我們認為有潛力和獲勝權利的領域進行投資。這個過程需要時間和深思熟慮的分析，但我們有很多合作的機會。

Turning to Slide 17, you'll see the 3 phases of our transformation journey. While we are actively executing the first phase of fix the foundation, we began Phase II earlier this year with a comprehensive end-to-end analysis of the potential in the business including both our culture as well as our financial performance. I'll talk more about these first 2 phases in the next several slides.

轉向幻燈片 17，您將看到我們轉型之旅的三個階段。在我們積極執行修復基礎的第一階段的同時，我們在今年稍早開始了第二階段，對業務潛力進行全面的端到端分析，包括我們的文化和財務表現。我將在接下來的幾張投影片中詳細討論前兩個階段。

On Slide 18, and as we've mentioned on today's call, you see some of the actions we have taken to fix the foundation. We've already simplified our structure, selling the Australasia business in the third quarter. With the proceeds from that sale, we repaid long-term debt and reduced our net leverage below our 3x near-term target. We have made significant working capital reductions, especially reducing network inventory levels. And we have already taken significant steps to adjust our cost base.

在投影片 18 上，正如我們在今天的電話會議中所提到的，您可以看到我們為修復基礎而採取的一些行動。我們已經簡化了結構，在第三季出售了澳洲業務。利用此次出售的收益，我們償還了長期債務，並將淨槓桿率降至 3 倍近期目標以下。我們大幅削減了營運資本，特別是降低了網路庫存水準。我們已經採取了重大措施來調整我們的成本基礎。

Our commitment to deliver $100 million of cost savings in 2023 is on track, including, as I described earlier, the closure or announced closure of 3 facilities this year. As we develop the next phase of our journey, we've been focused on improving our culture and gathering ideas to meaningfully grow our profitability. These ideas were then put through a disciplined review process to evaluate their feasibility, cost and expected returns, both in terms of return on invested capital and organizational execution capabilities. I'm extremely pleased and optimistic about the results of this process, and I look forward to sharing more about the potential impact next quarter as we look into 2024. For now, it's safe to say that the potential improvement to the business is substantial, and we are now sequencing a clear road map of the projects.

我們承諾在 2023 年實現 1 億美元的成本節約，這項承諾正在如期實現，正如我之前所述，包括今年關閉或宣布關閉 3 個設施。在我們開發下一階段的旅程時，我們一直致力於改善我們的文化並收集想法，以有意義地提高我們的獲利能力。然後，這些想法經過嚴格的審查流程，以評估其可行性、成本和預期回報，包括投資資本回報率和組織執行能力。我對這一過程的結果感到非常高興和樂觀，我期待在我們展望 2024 年時分享更多有關下季度潛在影響的信息。目前，可以肯定地說，業務的潛在改善是巨大的，我們現在正在將專案的清晰路線圖進行排序。

Turning to Slide 19. In previous earnings calls, I've shared my 3 focus areas: people, performance and strategy. Our transformation journey is now focused on the first 2 areas. To be able to drive the performance we want, and investors deserve, our culture needs to adapt and change. We have organized a cross-functional culture and capabilities work stream that is focused on improving trust and measuring, then improving JELD-WEN's organizational health. This includes building the necessary capabilities and focusing on the behaviors required to reach and sustain our full potential.

轉向投影片 19。在先前的財報電話會議中，我分享了我的 3 個重點領域：人員、績效和策略。我們的轉型之旅現在主要集中在前兩個領域。為了能夠推動我們想要的、投資者應得的業績，我們的文化需要適應和改變。我們組織了一個跨職能的文化和能力工作流程，重點是提高信任和衡量，然後改善 JELD-WEN 的組織健康。這包括建立必要的能力並專注於實現和維持我們全部潛力所需的行為。

This team is actively addressing ways to increase accountability and performance through appropriate rewards and incentives, building manager skills, and improving safety and communication across the organization. As we work on our culture, we're also driving performance improvements through both growth and cost initiatives. Our growth plans don't include plans to swing for the fences, but instead are focused on the basics such as upgrading our go-to-market processes and using training to increase our sales force effectiveness. We're also focusing on improving our pricing capabilities as we anticipate further inflation.

團隊正在積極尋求透過適當的獎勵和激勵、培養經理技能以及改善整個組織的安全和溝通來提高責任感和績效的方法。在我們致力於我們的文化的同時，我們也透過成長和成本計劃來推動績效改進。我們的成長計劃不包括搖擺不定的計劃，而是專注於基礎知識，例如昇級我們的進入市場流程和利用培訓來提高我們的銷售人員效率。由於我們預期通膨將進一步加劇，我們也致力於提高定價能力。

Most of our near-term performance efforts are on cost reductions, both accelerating and expanding on themes we already have in focus. We are rightsizing and consolidating our manufacturing network, investing in automation, and utilizing our scale to streamline sourcing among many other smaller initiatives across the organization. As one example, last week, our Board of Directors and senior leadership team visited our doors manufacturing site in Garland, Texas, where we saw firsthand the opportunities we have in areas such as automation and inventory management. Additionally, as we indicated previously, to drive these permanent cost reductions, we'll be investing more on ourselves as we execute on our solid pipeline of high ROIC projects.

我們近期的大部分績效工作都是為了降低成本，加速並擴大我們已經關注的主題。我們正在調整和整合我們的製造網絡，投資於自動化，並利用我們的規模來簡化組織內許多其他較小計劃的採購。舉個例子，上週，我們的董事會和高級領導團隊參觀了我們位於德克薩斯州加蘭的門製造工廠，在那裡我們親眼目睹了我們在自動化和庫存管理等領域的機會。此外，正如我們先前指出的，為了推動這些永久性成本降低，我們將在執行高投資報酬率專案的堅實管道時對自己進行更多投資。

Turning to Slide 20. I look forward to sharing more on our transformation journey going forward. In our next earnings call, which will be in mid-February, we are committed to giving more color on market conditions, our 2024 guidance as well as our internal investments and action plans. We will also provide a near-term scorecard of our expectations as well as mild markers to measure our progress. We are excited about the opportunities to improve and sustain results, and I'm confident that JELD-WEN can deliver significantly improved profitability metrics. In the near term, we expect our 2024 actions to more than overcome anticipated macroeconomic headwinds. We appreciate your continued interest in JELD-WEN.

轉向幻燈片 20。我期待分享更多有關我們未來轉型之旅的資訊。在我們將於 2 月中旬舉行的下一次財報電話會議中，我們致力於對市場狀況、我們的 2024 年指導以及我們的內部投資和行動計劃提供更多資訊。我們還將提供我們期望的近期記分卡以及衡量我們進展的溫和標記。我們對改善和維持績效的機會感到興奮，我相信 JELD-WEN 能夠顯著提高獲利指標。短期內，我們預期 2024 年的行動將不僅克服預期的宏觀經濟阻力。我們感謝您對 JELD-WEN 的持續關注。

And I'll now turn it over to James to move into Q&A.

現在我將把它交給詹姆斯來進入問答環節。

Thanks, Bill. Operator, we're now ready to begin the Q&A.

謝謝，比爾。接線員，我們現在準備開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Phil Ng with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Phil Ng 和 Jefferies 的電話。

Congrats on the really strong performance this year in a tough demand backdrop. The team's obviously executing quite well. I guess, first off, from a demand standpoint in North America and Europe, are you seeing any stabilization since I think in North America, in particular, I think your high single-digit volume declines imply maybe declines could accelerate in the fourth quarter. It doesn't seem like the case, but it helpful to kind of give us some color on North America and perhaps looking out to 2024, any early read, many of your building products peers have talked about maybe flat to down R&R market and maybe growth in housing, but just kind of help us unpack what that means for JELD-WEN.

祝賀今年在嚴峻的需求背景下取得了真正強勁的表現。團隊顯然執行得很好。我想，首先，從北美和歐洲的需求角度來看，您是否看到任何穩定，因為我認為在北美，特別是，我認為您的高單位數銷售下降意味著第四季度的下降可能會加速。情況似乎並非如此，但它有助於為我們提供有關北美的一些信息，或許還可以展望 2024 年，任何早期閱讀，您的許多建築產品同行都談到過，R&R 市場可能持平甚至下降，也許住房的成長，但這只是幫助我們了解這對JELD-WEN 意味著什麼。

Yes. Thanks, Phil. So we are seeing the market stabilize at these, I'd say, low run rate level. So no surprises for us in Q3 if you remember, we had improved a bit our expectations on R&R from kind of high single, down to mid-single down. That's what we're seeing. Similarly, in Europe, it remains soft. The headwinds are there. it's too early for us to guide on '24. What we're basically saying is the current market reality. We expect that to continue from a volume decline standpoint as we roll into Q4. So no surprises, but also clearly no strong signals of significant rebounds and we're going to share more color when we talk in February on our Q4 results, but also our views on 2024. .

是的。謝謝，菲爾。因此，我們看到市場穩定在低運行率水準。因此，如果您還記得的話，我們在第三季度不會感到意外，我們對 R&R 的期望從高單曲下降到了中單曲下降。這就是我們所看到的。同樣，在歐洲，它仍然疲軟。逆風就在那裡。現在對我們來說 24 日進行指導還為時過早。我們基本上所說的是當前的市場現實。我們預計，隨著進入第四季度，從銷售下降的角度來看，這種情況將持續下去。因此，這並不令人意外，但顯然也沒有明顯反彈的強烈信號，當我們在 2 月談論我們的第四季度業績時，我們將分享更多的色彩，以及我們對 2024 年的看法。

Got it. That's helpful Bill. Sorry, go ahead, Julie.

知道了。這對比爾很有幫助。抱歉，請繼續，朱莉。

I was just going to add, North America last year in Q4, we did have a pretty strong backlog that we were working through. And so that did help last year's fourth quarter volume-wise in North America. So this year, we don't have that same backlog working through. And so there is a little bit more of a year-over-year headwind volume-wise, just from that dynamic.

我只是想補充一點，去年第四季的北美，我們確實有相當多的積壓訂單需要處理。因此，這確實對去年第四季北美的銷量有所幫助。所以今年，我們沒有處理同樣的積壓工作。因此，僅從這一動態來看，銷量方面的年比逆風就更大了。

And once again, Bill, you're probably going to tell me you're going to give us a little more color in February. But the $100 million of cost savings you guys have achieved so far in a really tough demand backdrop is truly impressive in my opinion. From a baseball analogy, help us kind of contextualize where you are with this journey. You gave us like Phase I, Phase II. In terms of this $100 million build in cost savings, what inning are you and when we kind of look out to next year, can you kind of build off this? Because I think that tailwind is accelerating in the back half and looking out to next year, once again, demand still from its -- visibility still seems pretty challenging. Do you have enough levers to kind of offset perhaps another weaker year from a demand standpoint where you can actually grow EBITDA next year?

比爾，你可能會再一次告訴我，你會在二月為我們帶來更多的色彩。但在我看來，在需求非常嚴峻的背景下，你們迄今為止所節省的 1 億美元成本確實令人印象深刻。以棒球為例，幫助我們了解您在這段旅程中的位置。你給了我們第一階段、第二階段。就這 1 億美元的成本節省而言，您處於第 哪一階段？當我們展望明年時，您能以此為基礎嗎？因為我認為下半年的順風正在加速，展望明年，需求仍然來自其可見性似乎仍然相當具有挑戰性。從需求的角度來看，您是否有足夠的槓桿來抵消可能又一個疲軟的一年，從而明年您實際上可以增加 EBITDA？

Yes. So let me start with the second question, Phil. So clearly, there's ample opportunity, and that's what we're saying today is that we do feel confident that the number of projects that we're sequencing clearly gives us conviction that we're going to be able to definitely offset volume headwinds based on our current expectation. I'd say we're in the early innings to use a baseball analogy. We expect from the $100 million that roughly $50 million will roll forward into 2024. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we're in the process of sequencing and we went through a pretty broad-based process across our organization to gather all of the opportunities, put some pricing around it and put some resources on it.

是的。那麼讓我從第二個問題開始，菲爾。很明顯，有充足的機會，這就是我們今天所說的，我們確實有信心，我們正在排序的項目數量清楚地讓我們相信，我們將能夠肯定地抵消基於數量的逆風我們目前的期望。我想說我們正處於比賽的早期階段，可以用棒球來比喻。我們預計，從這1 億美元中，大約5000 萬美元將延續到​​2024 年。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們正在排序的過程中，我們在整個組織中經歷了一個相當廣泛的流程，以收集所有機會，圍繞它定價並投入一些資源。

And so that's what we're kind of getting dialed into 2024. There's a couple of implications that's going to have, number one, is expectations, our EBITDA will be up. Number two, we're expecting, as we've been signaling a significant CapEx increase to fund those high ROIC projects, our expectation is kind of moving from the roughly 2.5% into a quarter of 3% or 4% to fund those projects. We have ample cash flow, obviously, based on the performance to self-fund all of that. So we feel pretty comfortable given current market conditions. But as you well know, Phil has been pretty volatile. So we will definitely share a lot more color in February when we can really share a better line of sight and obviously, our sequencing and execution of projects continue. So we'll obviously give some more detail at that point.

這就是我們在 2024 年面臨的情況。這將產生幾個影響，第一，我們的 EBITDA 將會上升。第二，我們預計，由於我們一直表示將大幅增加資本支出來為這些高 ROIC 項目提供資金，因此我們的預期將從大約 2.5% 變為 3% 或 4% 的季度來為這些項目提供資金。顯然，我們擁有充足的現金流，這是基於自籌資金的表現。因此，考慮到當前的市場狀況，我們感到非常放心。但眾所周知，菲爾的情緒一直很不穩定。因此，當我們能夠真正分享更好的視線時，我們肯定會在二月分享更多的色彩，顯然，我們的專案排序和執行仍在繼續。因此，我們顯然會在那時提供更多細節。

Our next question comes from the line of John Lovallo with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰‧洛瓦洛 (John Lovallo)。

This is actually Matt Johnson on for John. I appreciate I guess, first off, based on your 2023 outlook, it looks like 4Q EBITDA margin is implied around 7.5% on which looks like it will be down a little over 200 basis points sequentially and recognizing sales will be lower sequentially as well. I guess, is there anything else driving the sequential contraction in margins?

這其實是馬特·約翰遜為約翰代言的。我很感激，我想，首先，根據您對2023 年的展望，第四季度EBITDA 利潤率似乎隱含在7.5% 左右，看起來將比上一季下降200 個基點多一點，並且認識到銷售額也將依序下降。我想，是否有其他因素導致利潤率持續收縮？

Yes. This is Julie. Yes. No, not really. I mean, it's really very seasonal. When you look at our historical seasonality trends of sales and EBITDA, and you think about ended the year with the holidays and the impact that has on really demand and our operations, we typically see fourth quarter margins down really, so looking maybe more importantly is year-over-year that -- and you're right about that 7.5%, that is the implied margin in our guidance. That is almost 100 basis points over last year's fourth quarter. And so I think that's what I would really highlight more than the sequential drop-off is more of that year-over-year improvement in the fourth quarter.

是的。這是朱莉。是的。不，不是真的。我的意思是，它確實非常季節性。當您查看我們的銷售和 EBITDA 的歷史季節性趨勢時，並考慮年底的假期以及對實際需求和我們運營的影響，我們通常會看到第四季度的利潤率確實下降，因此也許更重要的是與去年同期相比，您對7.5% 的看法是正確的，這是我們指導的隱含利潤率。這比去年第四季幾乎高出 100 個基點。因此，我認為這才是我真正要強調的，不僅僅是連續下降，而是第四季的年比改善。

Okay. Appreciate that. And then I guess, you guys also mentioned seeing a bit of a pickup in R&R activity during the third quarter. I guess, what was driving this? And with regards to inventories being very low are you guys expecting some replenishment across the channel within your 4Q guide? Or do you think this would be more of a 2024 phenomenon if it did happen?

好的。感謝。然後我想，你們也提到第三季 R&R 活動有所回升。我想，是什麼推動了這一點？關於庫存非常低，你們是否期望在第四季度指南中透過管道進行補貨？或者您認為如果這確實發生的話，這將更像是 2024 年的現象嗎？

Yes. So definitely '24. If it did happen, we're not planning or expecting any significant rebalancing of inventories in the channel. Our comments have been consistent that channel inventory is extremely tight. We're seeing stock outs. We're seeing some lines drop below 90% in stock, which are trigger points for some of our big retail partners to reload. So there's specific balancing that's happening. We were expecting, as we shared in the third quarter kind of mid-single-digit declines, which is how it's played out.

是的。所以肯定是'24。如果確實發生了，我們不會計劃或預期渠道中的庫存會發生任何重大的重新平衡。我們的評論一致認為通路庫存極度緊張。我們看到缺貨。我們看到一些產品線的庫存跌破 90%，這是我們一些大型零售合作夥伴重新加載的觸發點。所以正在發生特定的平衡。正如我們在第三季分享的那樣，我們預計會出現中等個位數的下降，這就是結果。

And I wouldn't point to any specific factor driving this. Year-over-year comps are mixed, depending on if you're looking at windows or doors into your exterior, I would just say the general feeling is that consumers are cautious about spend for the obvious reasons that we hear about almost on a daily basis and all of the news that we reach. So no big changes expected in Q4 and no major rebalancing of inventories that are baked into our Q4 results.

我不會指出造成這種情況的任何具體因素。同比情況好壞參半，取決於您是否觀察外部的窗戶或門，我只想說，總體感覺是，消費者對支出持謹慎態度，原因顯而易見，我們幾乎每天都會聽到基礎和我們到達的所有新聞。因此，預計第四季度不會發生重大變化，也不會在第四季度業績中對庫存進行重大重新平衡。

Our next question comes from the line of Stanley Elliott with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stanley Elliott 和 Stifel 的對話。

A quick question on the bump on the CapEx piece, how long do you think this will last? Some of these investments, my guess is it from an automation standpoint, you're already getting teed up for next year? Just trying to get a sense for, one, how long you're looking at this elevated CapEx piece. And then two, kind of what that ultimately will end up doing for free cash flow.

關於資本支出的上漲的一個簡單問題是，您認為這種情況會持續多久？我猜，其中一些投資是從自動化的角度來看的，您已經為明年做好了準備？只是想了解一下，第一，您關注這個資本支出上升的部分多久了。然後是兩個，這最終會對自由現金流產生什麼影響。

Yes. So I'd say it's definitely not a 1-year topic. There is ample opportunity and what we're working through right now is the ability of our organization to digest and execute just on the volume of projects that we do have, and we're sequencing. So think of this Stanley as more 2- to 3-year. And obviously, we're sequencing high-impact projects. Said differently, do you have a very attractive return on invested capital. And obviously, we're looking at things like cost to achieve, complexity to achieve, duration and making sure that we're balancing. So it's a 2- to 3-year uptick in CapEx. And at that point, we'll kind of reevaluate what we have been saying, Julie and myself since we started sharing our insights about the state of the union at JELD-WEN as we were clearly under-invested and we had too many sites. We did not invest appropriately in the sites, and we need to reset that. And this is what the process is signaling that we are starting to do that.

是的。所以我想說這絕對不是為期一年的話題。有充足的機會，我們現在正在努力解決的是我們的組織是否有能力消化和執行我們現有的項目數量，並且我們正在排序。因此，將此史丹利視為 2 至 3 年的。顯然，我們正在對高影響力的項目進行排序。換句話說，您的投資資本報酬率是否非常有吸引力？顯然，我們正在考慮諸如實現成本、實現複雜性、持續時間等因素，並確保我們保持平衡。因此，資本支出將在 2 到 3 年內上升。到那時，我們將重新評估朱莉和我自己自從開始分享我們對 JELD-WEN 聯盟狀況的見解以來所說的話，因為我們顯然投資不足，而且我們擁有太多站點。我們沒有對網站進行適當的投資，我們需要重新設定。這就是該流程表明我們正在開始這樣做的信號。

So Julie can maybe comment on the free cash flow implications for you, Stanley, just to make sure you can kind of size that appropriately.

所以朱莉也許可以評論一下自由現金流對你的影響，史丹利，只是為了確保你可以適當地調整規模。

Yes, sure. And what I'd say is we're still -- we've had obviously a really great year rebounding with cash flow generation this year after a week, unusually week 2022, so we're still very bullish and confident about cash flow generation of the business. You think about strong EBITDA, still opportunities for some amount of working capital improvement as we look into next year and expect to deliver next year, and we'll provide more on that in our February call.

是的，當然。我想說的是，在 2022 年一周、不尋常的一周之後，我們今年顯然經歷了非常好的一年，現金流產生反彈，所以我們仍然對現金流產生非常樂觀和有信心的業務。你會想到強勁的 EBITDA，當我們展望明年並期望明年實現時，仍然有一定程度的營運資金改善的機會，我們將在 2 月份的電話會議中提供更多相關資訊。

But all that said, and this increase investing in ourselves is really capital and when you think about restructuring cash costs, other operating expenses as we ramp up improvements to the business. But nonetheless, we would still expect to be free cash flow positive next year. So we're still obviously putting all these plans together, but absolutely confident that we've got the funds. We'll be generating the funds we need to invest in ourselves, again, OpEx as well as CapEx and again, would expect to be staying free cash flow positive in 2024.

但話雖如此，這種對我們自己的投資增加實際上是資本，當你考慮重組現金成本和其他營運費用時，我們增加了業務改進的力度。但儘管如此，我們仍預期明年自由現金流為正。因此，我們顯然仍在將所有這些計劃放在一起，但我們絕對有信心獲得資金。我們將產生投資自己所需的資金，再次投資於營運支出和資本支出，並預計在 2024 年保持正自由現金流。

Perfect. And then just as a follow-up, kind of you talked about some of the longer-term profitable growth plans for you all. Could you remind us maybe what are some of the return on capital that you're targeting? Maybe talk about some of the things you're doing behind the scenes to explore new products and design new products to kind of win in the marketplace as you guys mentioned.

完美的。然後，作為後續行動，你們談到了一些為你們所有人提供的長期獲利成長計劃。您能否提醒我們您的目標資本報酬率是多少？也許可以談談您在幕後所做的一些事情，以探索新產品並設計新產品，以便像您提到的那樣在市場上獲勝。

Yes. So as you know, Stanley today, we shared once and for all that we're resending kind of the 2021 guide that was put out at the Investor Day for 2025 goals. If you look at our logic around kind of return on capital employed, there's a couple of things that we're looking at. Obviously, we need to be delivering returns that are significantly above our weighted average cost of capital and we see ample opportunities. So this is definitely high teens or better. The kind of returns that we're looking at and the kind of opportunities that we're seeing. So that's our expectation and aspiration. But clearly, we need to deliver. And that's something that we're working hard on trying to hit some singles on a quarterly basis to really create a conviction in the capital market and with our investors that we have a high [stable] ratio and we're delivering on our promises.

是的。正如你所知，史丹利，今天我們一勞永逸地分享了我們正在重新發送 2021 年指南，該指南是在投資者日發布的 2025 年目標。如果你看看我們關於所用資本報酬率的邏輯，你會發現我們正在考慮一些事情。顯然，我們需要提供遠高於加權平均資本成本的回報，並且我們看到了充足的機會。所以這絕對是高中或更好。我們正在尋找什麼樣的回報以及我們正在看到什麼樣的機會。這就是我們的期望和願望。但顯然，我們需要交付。我們正努力在每個季度打出一些單打，以真正讓資本市場和我們的投資者相信我們擁有高[穩定]的比率，並且我們正在兌現我們的承諾。

So we don't want to get ahead of ourselves. We just want to make sure that the blocking and tackling and fixing the foundation is running according to plan. And as we ramp up our CapEx, we're going to prove to the capital market that we do see those appropriate returns, and we'll show that by delivering the results.

所以我們不想超越自己。我們只是想確保堵塞、處理和固定地基的工作按計劃進行。隨著我們增加資本支出，我們將向資本市場證明我們確實看到了這些適當的回報，並且我們將透過交付結果來證明這一點。

Our next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

I think let's start on price cost. Can you talk a little bit about how you're thinking of pricing maybe to end this year and then into next year. And especially any updates relative to the inflation that you mentioned that you're continuing to see come through the business?

我認為讓我們從價格成本開始。您能談談您對今年年底和明年的定價的看法嗎？尤其是您提到的與通貨膨脹相關的任何更新，您將繼續看到透過業務實現的情況？

Yes. So maybe I'll give a couple of high-level comments, Julie can maybe add some more color if that's appropriate. So we -- as we signaled earlier this year, our goal is to stay price cost positive. We see -- we still do see inflation, but it's trending at a lower rate, but it's still up. And the third point would be we do have a higher base effect in H2 '22 that we're comping against because we had really then started kind of pushing the prices through last year in the second half.

是的。所以也許我會給出一些高水準的評論，如果合適的話，朱莉也許可以添加更多的色彩。因此，正如我們今年早些時候表示的那樣，我們的目標是保持價格成本正值。我們看到——我們仍然看到通貨膨脹，但它的趨勢是較低的，但它仍然在上升。第三點是，我們在 22 年下半年確實有更高的基數效應，我們正在與之競爭，因為我們實際上在去年下半年就開始推動價格上漲。

There's no major actions that we're currently planning because we feel that the price that we have in the market is appropriately sized. But at this point in time, we're evaluating what the perspectives are for 2024, as we kind of look at our sourcing opportunities and input costs. So on a high level, it's status quo, but we're evaluating, obviously, what we want to do next year.

我們目前沒有計劃採取重大行動，因為我們認為市場上的價格合適。但目前，我們正在評估 2024 年的前景，同時我們也在檢視我們的採購機會和投入成本。因此，從較高的層面來看，這是現狀，但顯然我們正在評估明年我們想要做什麼。

Maybe the only other color I'd add to that, Susan, is just very specifically in the fourth quarter. And as Bill just mentioned, we've been mentioning this trend all year. But in the fourth quarter in our forecast, we have very little year-over-year price impact to the top line and very little price cost. So really, what's driving our Q4 outlook is the volume mix decline that we've mentioned and then again, really basically offset by cost reductions and productivity. So that price cost benefit. We had a lot in first half less so in Q3, we really do expect to, I'll say, flatten out significantly in the fourth quarter. So just adding that additional clarity there.

也許我要添加的唯一其他顏色，蘇珊，只是在第四季度非常具體。正如比爾剛才提到的，我們一整年都在提到這個趨勢。但在我們的預測中，第四季的價格對營收的影響非常小，價格成本也非常小。因此，實際上，推動我們第四季前景的因素是我們提到的銷售組合下降，而且基本上被成本降低和生產力下降所抵消。所以說價格成本效益。我們上半年的業績減少了很多，所以在第三季度，我們確實預計，我會說，第四季會顯著趨於平緩。因此，只需在那裡添加額外的清晰度即可。

Okay. That's helpful color. And then, Bill, in your prepared remarks, you outlined some of those completed or those announced changes to the -- to some of those facilities that are -- will be closing. I guess when you think about the asset base that the business has, any kind of higher view in terms of where we are in this process and how we should think about this going forward, given all the progress that you've already made through the first couple of quarters of this year?

好的。這是有用的顏色。然後，比爾，在您準備好的演講中，您概述了其中一些已完成或已宣布的變更（其中一些設施即將關閉）。我想，當您考慮企業擁有的資產基礎時，考慮到您在整個過程中已經取得的所有進展，我們在這個過程中所處的位置以及我們應該如何考慮未來的任何更高的觀點今年前幾個季度？

Yes. So I'd say there's a couple of factors. So we're definitely not finished, Susan. There's a number of overarching topics that are coming into this decision-making process. One, obviously, is macro headwinds and our expectations on kind of midterm volumes. Second, is regional presence and our ability to deliver on time and full to our customers. So basically, it's a network view, making sure that we have assets in the right place. Third, what we've already talked about today is, are we balanced effectively between labor and investments in automation.

是的。所以我想說有幾個因素。所以我們肯定還沒結束，蘇珊。此決策過程涉及許多首要主題。顯然，其中之一是宏觀阻力和我們對中期交易量的預期。其次，是區域影響力以及我們按時、完整地向客戶交付產品的能力。所以基本上，這是一個網頁視圖，確保我們的資產位於正確的位置。第三，我們今天已經討論的是，我們在自動化方面的勞動力和投資之間是否有效平衡。

And I would argue we're definitely not balanced today. So this is going to be a big opportunity for us as we move forward. And obviously, there's a cost to that, but there's also a benefit and that will then also lead to probably a rebalancing of assets to make sure that we have the ability to serve the customers. So there's a lot of overarching topics that are coming into this decision-making process, which leads then to the answer for your question is, no, we're definitely not finished. This is a long-term process. And we've constantly said that we need fewer sites that we overinvest in and create high-performing operating assets. So again, to use the analogy that I shared with Phil, we're in the early innings. And this is a long game, especially when you look at some of the lead times on automation around the world, this is not something that we're going to solve in the next quarter.

我認為我們今天絕對不平衡。因此，這對我們前進來說將是一個巨大的機會。顯然，這是有成本的，但也有好處，這也可能導致資產的重新平衡，以確保我們有能力為客戶服務。因此，這個決策過程中涉及許多總體主題，這導致您的問題的答案是，不，我們絕對還沒有完成。這是一個長期的過程。我們經常說，我們需要減少過度投資的站點並創造高性能的營運資產。再次使用我與菲爾分享的類比，我們正處於早期局。這是一場漫長的遊戲，特別是當你看看世界各地自動化的一些交付週期時，這不是我們下個季度要解決的問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Reuben Garner with The Benchmark Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Benchmark Company 的 Reuben Garner。

So maybe to start a clarification on the pricing outlook in the near term. Are you guys seeing -- what are you seeing from a sequential standpoint on pricing? Has it been pretty stable? Or are there any categories within doors or windows or anything doors versus windows that's changed from a competitive standpoint over the last 3 to 6 months?

因此，也許需要在短期內開始澄清定價前景。你們看到了嗎——從定價的連續角度來看，你們看到了什麼？一直很穩定嗎？或者，在過去 3 到 6 個月內，門窗或門窗之間的競爭角度是否有任何類別發生了變化？

Yes, it's pretty flat, Reuben. I'd say that there's puts and takes, but all in, it's flat.

是的，它很平坦，魯本。我想說，有看跌和拿跌，但總而言之，一切都是平淡的。

Okay. And then in your kind of longer-term discussion. You mentioned pricing capabilities, I think, was the terminology used. What does that mean? Is that looking at things more centralized than you have been less centralized? Any detail would be helpful.

好的。然後進行長期討論。我認為您提到的定價能力是所使用的術語。這意味著什麼？是現在你看到的事情比較集中化，而不是你以前不太集中化的情況？任何細節都會有幫助。

Yes, sure. So yes, what that means is building better capabilities and systems within our organization to be able to create decision-making documentation and make those decisions on fact base that I would argue have not been as robust as they should be. And in a high inflation environment and potential volatile environment, we want to make sure that we're prepared as an organization to react, so that would be the one area. It's kind of getting ourselves better aligned to react to the volatile environment that we've been throwing into the last couple of years, and we feel could potentially continue.

是的，當然。所以，是的，這意味著在我們的組織內建立更好的能力和系統，以便能夠建立決策文件並根據事實做出這些決策，我認為這些決策並沒有應有的穩健。在高通膨環境和潛在波動的環境中，我們希望確保我們作為一個組織做好反應的準備，因此這將是一個領域。這讓我們能夠更好地應對過去幾年所經歷的動盪環境，而且我們認為這種情況可能會持續下去。

And second point is just to make sure that we're doing our homework. We have a very broad portfolio. We're a global player. So we operate in many different markets, and we just want to make sure that we're doing a good job of supporting our sales teams around the world with the right data and documentation to guide on pricing decisions.

第二點是確保我們正在做功課。我們擁有非常廣泛的產品組合。我們是全球參與者。因此，我們在許多不同的市場開展業務，我們只是想確保我們能夠很好地為世界各地的銷售團隊提供支持，並提供正確的數據和文件來指導定價決策。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

Andrew Azzi on for Mike. I just wanted to ask if you can comment maybe on volume monthly trends in the retail channel for doors and maybe kind of get your read on how point of sale is trending compared to the underlying market? And how you perceive your volumes relative to the rest of the industry?

安德魯·阿齊 (Andrew Azzi) 替補邁克 (Mike)。我只是想問您是否可以評論一下門零售通路的每月銷售趨勢，或者了解一下銷售點與基礎市場相比的趨勢如何？相對於產業其他公司，您如何看待您的銷量？

Yes. So as we've kind of discussed in the prepared remarks, our expectations, obviously, for the retail segment to be kind of down mid-single digits. There's a seasonal downtick in Q4 that Julie talked through when she was talking about kind of our sequential EBITDA margins, which is normal in the industry. But based on what we're seeing and the comps, we don't feel that we are way out of the pocket of the general market. So I'd say we're trending in line with the general market. And we participate, obviously, in a number of different channels and geographic regions.

是的。正如我們在準備好的評論中所討論的那樣，我們對零售領域的預期顯然會下降到個位數左右。朱莉在談論我們的連續 EBITDA 利潤率時談到了第四季度的季節性下降，這在行業中是正常的。但根據我們所看到的情況和比較，我們並不認為我們在一般市場上有很大優勢。所以我想說我們的趨勢與整體市場一致。顯然，我們參與了許多不同的渠道和地理區域。

So there was some discussion, and we had this discussion on the last quarterly results call. We actually did see some opportunities in Europe, and we were gaining some share because some competitors have overextended themselves in a pretty volatile environment, and we're not able to support the customers, as the customers want it. So there was some transfer of volume to our production sites in a number of different countries across Europe. So some of the cracks are starting to show. And we've been benefiting from that just based on our size and our scale and presence. But I'd say, in general, we're definitely in line and tracking with the market and what we're seeing.

因此進行了一些討論，我們在上一季業績電話會議上進行了討論。實際上，我們確實在歐洲看到了一些機會，我們獲得了一些份額，因為一些競爭對手在相當不穩定的環境中過度擴張，而我們無法按照客戶的要求為客戶提供支援。因此，一些產量轉移到了我們位於歐洲許多不同國家的生產基地。所以一些裂縫開始出現。僅僅基於我們的規模、規模和影響力，我們就已經從中受益。但我想說，總的來說，我們絕對符合並追蹤市場和我們所看到的情況。

That's helpful. And then maybe if you could comment on capacity utilization in your sense for how the overall industry is tracking there?

這很有幫助。然後，您是否可以就您認為整個行業的追蹤情況對產能利用率發表評論？

Yes. So we wouldn't share that kind of detail. The one thing I can say, and this is what we just talked about also with Susan's question is that there's a lot of opportunity for us to kind of optimize what we're doing from a global supply chain standpoint, and rebalancing our supply chain and cost to deliver products into different market segments. So automation will really help. I think in general, or I know in general, clearly, there's a utilization issue around the world in building products because volume is soft. It's down year-over-year. We expect that trend based on current expectations to continue into Q4. So there is excess capacity. But I feel that we've done a good job of managing that market reality, holding price and taking care of our homework on the cost side to overdeliver on the EBITDA, which is what we're focused on and pretty happy with this quarter.

是的。所以我們不會分享這類細節。我可以說的一件事是，這也是我們剛剛討論的蘇珊問題，那就是我們有很多機會從全球供應鏈的角度優化我們正在做的事情，並重新平衡我們的供應鏈並將產品交付到不同細分市場的成本。因此，自動化確實會有所幫助。我認為，總的來說，或者我知道，很明顯，世界各地的建築產品都存在利用率問題，因為數量疲軟。是逐年下降的。根據目前的預期，我們預計這一趨勢將持續到第四季度。所以產能過剩。但我覺得我們在管理市場現實、控制價格以及在成本方面做好功課以超額交付 EBITDA 方面做得很好，這是我們本季度關注的重點，並且對此感到非常滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Ramsey with Thompson Research Group.

我們的下一個問題來自湯普森研究小組的史蒂文拉姆齊。

On the Phase 2 key levers, the growth performance bullet points there, there are 3 of them, which of these is the biggest mover, maybe which of these is the fastest to achieve? And maybe which of these do you feel is the furthest along at this juncture?

在第二階段的關鍵槓桿上，成長績效要點有3個，其中哪一個是最大的推動力，也許哪個是最快實現的？也許您認為此時此刻，哪一個走得最遠？

I think there's different levels of maturity just based on kind of where we are, what segments we're participating in. I do think that sales force efficiency is an opportunity in general, just to do things more effectively. So that's clearly an opportunity. But there's a lot of different things that go into improving sales force efficiency, training, better segmentation, et cetera, and those are not short-term levers, there's a midterm levers. Definitely, our go-to-market process and what we're doing around pricing are going to be more of the short-term levers. As we look into how can we balance then the time zones of the opportunity and the benefits that we see in the sequencing that we're going through. So this is also part of our sequencing process to make sure that we're balancing resources against benefit and kind of time and complexity to achieve.

我認為，根據我們所處的位置、我們參與的細分市場的不同，成熟度也有不同的水平。我確實認為，銷售人員的效率總體來說是一個機會，只是為了更有效地做事。所以這顯然是一個機會。但是，有很多不同的事情可以提高銷售人員的效率、培訓、更好的細分等等，這些都不是短期槓桿，而是中期槓桿。當然，我們的上市流程以及定價方面所做的工作將更像是短期槓桿。當我們研究如何平衡機會的時區和我們在正在經歷的排序中看到的好處時。因此，這也是我們排序過程的一部分，以確保我們在資源與效益以及實現時間和複雜性之間取得平衡。

Okay. Helpful. And then when I think about productivity benefits clearly much better in Q3 than Q2. Can you talk about kind of maybe not quantify, but that component of EBITDA improvement is going to be as significant in the fourth quarter and into early next year? Or is that something that moderates as we move forward?

好的。有幫助。然後，當我考慮第三季的生產力效益時，顯然比第二季好得多。您能否談談雖然無法量化，但 EBITDA 改善的組成部分在第四季度和明年初將同樣重要？或者說，隨著我們的前進，這種情況會有所緩和嗎？

Yes. I would say in the fourth quarter, I would expect probably actually higher productivity. You combine productivity going on, quite frankly, day-to-day in the business, as well as the more explicit cost savings actions that we've been taking and talking about with, again, site closures, head count reductions, other types of cost reduction activities that are more, call it, intentional and maybe call it higher level project base versus, again, that day-to-day blocking and tackling of productivity going on across the operations.

是的。我想說的是，在第四季度，我預計生產力實際上可能會更高。坦白說，您可以將業務中日常的生產力以及我們一直在採取和討論的更明確的成本節約行動結合起來，例如關閉工廠、減少員工數量以及其他類型的成本節約措施。成本削減活動更多的是有意為之，也許可以稱之為更高層級的專案基礎，而不是日常的阻礙和解決整個營運中的生產力問題。

So bottom line, we would expect that productivity to accelerate from Q3 into Q4. And like I mentioned before, I mean that really is important, right, as we face these demand headwinds that we're talking about for Q4 and again, noting that we don't have the same level of price cost benefit that we've had earlier in this year. So -- and going into next year, I mean, I'm not going to quantify what we expect yet for next year. But again, as we've been talking about today and before, we continue to view there to be a lot of opportunity to improve our profitability. And a lot of that does center around productivity and cost reductions as well as some of the growth items Bill has mentioned as well.

因此，我們預計生產力將從第三季到第四季加速。正如我之前提到的，我的意思是這確實很重要，對吧，因為我們面臨著我們在第四季度一次又一次討論的需求逆風，並指出我們沒有像我們之前那樣水平的價格成本效益今年早些時候曾有過。因此，進入明年，我的意思是，我不會量化我們對明年的期望。但同樣，正如我們今天和之前所討論的那樣，我們仍然認為有很多機會來提高我們的盈利能力。其中許多確實圍繞著生產力和成本降低以及比爾也提到的一些成長項目。

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Rygiel with B. Riley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alex Rygiel 和 B. Riley 的對話。

As it relates to the 3 facility closures, is there any anticipated revenue loss from those?

由於這與 3 個設施關閉有關，因此預計會造成收入損失嗎？

Alex. Yes, it's very limited. As with prior closures, we feel pretty confident that we're able to take the asset offline and there's going to be nominal revenue loss, at least that's our expectation today and what we're baking into our model.

亞歷克斯.是的，這是非常有限的。與先前的關閉一樣，我們非常有信心能夠使資產離線，並且會出現名義收入損失，至少這是我們今天的預期以及我們正在將其納入模型的內容。

And then can you also talk about investment in new products in light of the CapEx uptick?

那麼您能否談談鑑於資本支出上升對新產品的投資？

Yes. So clearly, there's going to be some things that we're doing around growth. I mean, as we look at growth, automation will be one area that we can take the cost out. But clearly, we also are looking at innovation, product innovation and how we create products in the future. Obviously, that have a strong demand. I'll point to our composite windows, which are doing exceptionally well. I mean high growth factors growth, not percentage growth, but it's off a low base. And there's other areas where we see exceptional growth opportunities.

是的。很明顯，我們將圍繞增長做一些事情。我的意思是，當我們考慮成長時，自動化將是我們可以降低成本的領域。但顯然，我們也在關注創新、產品創新以及未來如何創造產品。顯然，這有強烈的需求。我會指出我們的複合窗戶，它表現得非常好。我的意思是高成長因子成長，而不是百分比成長，但它的基數較低。我們在其他領域也看到了非凡的成長機會。

So in our VPI business, which is multifamily windows, that's an area where we believe, clearly, we're underpenetrated. We have a great team, great products, and there's a lot of opportunities. So it's not just about new products. It's also about kind of white spot penetration and taking what we have, and we're doing really well and pushing it into areas where we're not yet active. So we're pretty happy about what we're seeing in the short term. We do have a lot of work to do around innovation. That's a longer-term challenge, and that's something that we're also starting to think more about, but it's people on performance right now, and there's ample opportunity in the short term for those buckets.

因此，在我們的 VPI 業務（即多戶窗戶）中，我們顯然認為這是一個尚未滲透的領域。我們擁有優秀的團隊、優秀的產品，並且有很多機會。所以這不只是新產品的問題。這也與白點滲透和利用我們所擁有的東西有關，我們做得非常好，並將其推向我們尚未活躍的領域。因此，我們對短期內所看到的情況感到非常高興。圍繞著創新，我們確實還有很多工作要做。這是一個長期的挑戰，我們也開始更多地考慮這一點，但現在是人們的表現，短期內這些機會有充足的機會。

Our next question comes from the line of Truman Patterson with Wolf Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolf Research 的 Truman Patterson。

This is Trevor Allinson on for Truman. So I'll start on Europe. You guys had some really nice margin improvement there, not only on a year-over-year basis, but also on a sequential basis. I think margins were up 80 basis points versus 2Q. Your revenues were down sequentially. Just wondering if you could talk about what drove that margin improvement sequentially? And then should we think about margins maybe outperforming normal seasonality there going forward to some of these improvement initiatives you put in continue to flow through?

我是杜魯門的特雷弗·阿林森。那我將從歐洲開始。你們的利潤率得到了一些非常好的改善，不僅是同比，而且是環比。我認為利潤率比第二季上升了 80 個基點。您的收入連續下降。只是想知道您是否可以談談是什麼推動了利潤率的持續改善？然後，我們是否應該考慮一下，您所採取的一些改進措施是否會繼續實施，利潤率可能會超過正常的季節性？

I mean, as you saw in the release and the comments that Julie and I shared today, there is a pretty significant volume headwind. If you look at the volume mix were in Q3, this is high teens volume headwinds. So we're pleased with the progress that we're making in the market. It's a combination of tightening up cost, positive price/cost and productivity improvements that we're making. And so I'd say we're doing what we need to be doing, definitely not there yet, but we are expecting continued challenging macroeconomic environment across Europe.

我的意思是，正如您在朱莉和我今天分享的新聞稿和評論中看到的那樣，存在相當大的銷售逆風。如果你看看第三季的成交量組合，你會發現這是青少年成交量的逆風。因此，我們對我們在市場上的進展感到滿意。這是我們正在採取的收緊成本、積極的價格/成本和生產力改進的結合。所以我想說，我們正在做我們需要做的事情，肯定還沒有做到，但我們預計整個歐洲的宏觀經濟環境將繼續充滿挑戰。

And our expectations are that, that macro reality will have a continued detrimental effect on building products volumes. I mean you see inflation, you see interest rates. We have a war. We're getting into the heating season, where energy costs are going to become an issue again. So it's a tough environment, and we're doing a nice job. And Julie can comment on Q4, but we're expecting tough times ahead. So we need to make sure that the homework is being done to prepare for that reality.

我們的預期是，宏觀現實將對建築產品產量產生持續的不利影響。我的意思是你看到通貨膨脹，你看到利率。我們有一場戰爭。我們即將進入供暖季節，能源成本將再次成為一個問題。所以這是一個艱難的環境，但我們做得很好。朱莉可以對第四季度發表評論，但我們預計未來的日子會很艱難。因此，我們需要確保做好功課，為這個現實做好準備。

Yes, sure. Thanks, Bill. Yes, absolutely. Europe margins in the third quarter were very strong. We're really pleased with what that team is doing. And they're doing a lot of great things going forward. Our outlook for their fourth quarter margins really don't show that same level of improvement though. In fact, we're going to say, I mean, probably closer to the level of Q1 of this year, probably not getting back to what we delivered in Europe last fourth quarter.

是的，當然。謝謝，比爾。是的，一點沒錯。第三季歐洲的利潤率非常強勁。我們對團隊所做的事情感到非常滿意。他們正在做很多偉大的事情。不過，我們對其第四季利潤率的展望實際上並沒有顯示出同樣水準的改善。事實上，我們想說，我的意思是，可能更接近今年第一季的水平，可能不會回到我們上個第四季在歐洲交付的水平。

So kind of to Bill's point, really volume in Europe, we're still expecting that 15% to 20% down year-over-year in the fourth quarter for Europe's volumes limited, again, year-over-year price benefit. And so that volume headwind is a pretty large one for them despite all the good work around productivity and such. So we don't expect, I'll say that a similar level of margin Q3 into Q4 in Europe. And again, like I said, probably something more like maybe not exactly like Q1 of this year, but something closer to those levels.

因此，比爾的觀點是，歐洲的實際銷量，我們仍然預計第四季度將同比下降 15% 至 20%，因為歐洲的銷量有限，同樣，同比價格受益。因此，儘管在生產力等方面做了很多出色的工作，但銷量逆風對他們來說仍然是一個相當大的阻力。因此，我們預計歐洲第三季到第四季的利潤率不會達到類似水準。再說一次，就像我說的，可能更像是今年第一季的情況，但可能不完全像今年的第一季度，但更接近這些水平。

Okay. Understood. And then a quick one on corporate and unallocated costs that were down about $10 million year-over-year. I know you've talked about some onetime costs coming back there, but you've also got some savings from head count reductions. Is that down $10 million year-over-year. Is that a good run rate moving forward? And how are you thinking about corporate unallocated here in the fourth quarter?

好的。明白了。然後是公司和未分配成本的快速統計，年減約 1000 萬美元。我知道您已經談到了一些一次性成本，但您也透過減少人員數量節省了一些費用。年比減少了 1000 萬美元嗎？這是一個良好的運行率嗎？您如何看待第四季度未分配的公司？

Yes. I think that roughly $20 million a quarter run rate is pretty reasonable. I mean we do have in that number unforecastable things like other income events that come in from time to time that we don't have a lot of visibility to a lot of times, not that material. But nonetheless, that's kind of more of the wildcard. But when we look towards the end of the year, I think corporate unallocated probably lands full year in that $80 million to $85 million.

是的。我認為每季大約 2000 萬美元的運行費用是相當合理的。我的意思是，我們確實有很多不可預測的事情，例如不時出現的其他收入事件，但我們很多時候都沒有太多的可見性，而不是那些材料。但儘管如此，這更像是一種通配符。但當我們展望今年年底時，我認為全年未分配的企業可能會達到 8,000 萬至 8,500 萬美元。

Our final question comes from the line of Keith Hughes with Truist.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Keith Hughes 和 Truist 的對話。

You had called out $30 million in cost savings. I believe that's all year-over-year in the third quarter number one, is that correct? And number two, as we trend towards, I guess, we get $50 million next year, roughly, when do you think that will be in the fourth and how much of it is Europe and how much is North America?

您已要求節省 3000 萬美元的成本。我相信這是第三季同比第一名，對嗎？第二，我猜，我們明年大概會獲得 5000 萬美元，你認為第四個什麼時候會達到這個目標？其中有多少是歐洲的，有多少是北美的？

Yes. First of all, just to clarify, yes, the $30 million is in the quarter that we delivered, and we're in that kind of call it, $65 million range year-to-date Q3 around kind of all things, cost savings and productivity. Just thinking about -- well, first of all, just to clarify on the $50 million, we're delivering $100 million this year. And then with actions taken this year, not all that obviously lands in '23. And again, this is where we're getting $50 million carryover into '24. So I do want to also make that clarification. And I think from a cost reduction perspective, I think right now, roughly in line with pro rata, the split of our business is about -- it's probably the right way to think about the delivery of that $100 million and we can talk a little bit more about that going forward as we make more plans and give more color around 2024.

是的。首先，澄清一下，是的，3000 萬美元是在我們交付的季度中完成的，我們稱之為，今年第三季度迄今為止的 6500 萬美元，圍繞著所有事情、成本節約和生產率。想一想——首先，澄清一下 5000 萬美元，我們今年將交付 1 億美元。從今年採取的行動來看，顯然並不是所有的事情都能在 23 年實現。再說一次，這就是我們將 5000 萬美元結轉到 24 年的地方。所以我也想澄清這一點。我認為，從降低成本的角度來看，我認為現在，大致按照比例，我們業務的分割是——這可能是考慮交付這 1 億美元的正確方式，我們可以談談隨著我們在2024 年左右制定更多計劃並提供更多色彩，我們將對此進行更多了解。

But roughly speaking, the cost actions are across the footprint, right? They're North America site. Europe continues to review its footprint and headcount, overhead, supply chain, et cetera, et cetera. It's very broad. But high level, I'd say that split is generally in line with how our business is allocated.

但粗略地說，成本行動是跨越足跡的，對吧？他們是北美網站。歐洲繼續審查其足跡和員工人數、管理費用、供應鏈等等。它非常廣泛。但在高層，我想說的是，這種劃分通常與我們的業務分配方式一致。

And will we see that $30 million in the fourth quarter? Or is it going to kind of year-over-year? Or is it going to tick up as you do more work?

我們會在第四季看到 3000 萬美元嗎？還是會逐年成長？或者當你做更多的工作時它會上升嗎？

I think the run rate is going to be a little bit higher in Q4. And quite frankly, to get to our $100 million, which we have visibility to, I think specifically, we need to deliver around $35 million. So we're comfortable with that at this point. So yes, the run rate increases a little bit in Q4 over Q3.

我認為第四季的運行率會更高一些。坦白說，為了達到 1 億美元的目標，我認為具體來說，我們需要交付約 3500 萬美元。所以目前我們對此感到滿意。所以，是的，第四季的運行率比第三季略有增加。

I would now like to turn the call over to James Armstrong for closing remarks.

我現在想將電話轉交給詹姆斯·阿姆斯特朗，他將致閉幕詞。

Thank you for joining our call today. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out, and I'll be happy to answer anything I can. This ends our call today, and please have a great day.

感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯絡我們，我很樂意回答任何問題。我們今天的通話到此結束，祝您有美好的一天。

I would like to thank our speakers for today's presentation, and thank you all for joining us. This now concludes today's call, and you may now disconnect.

我要感謝今天的演講者的演講，並感謝大家加入我們。今天的通話到此結束，您現在可以掛斷電話了。