高德納諮詢公司 (IT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Gartner's third quarter 2024 earnings call. I'm David Cohen, SVP of Investor Relations. (Operator Instructions) After comments by Gene Hall, Gartner's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Craig Safian, Gartner's Financial Officer, there will be a question-and-answer session. Please advise that today's conference is being recorded.

大家早安。歡迎參加 Gartner 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我是投資人關係資深副總裁大衛‧科恩。 （操作員說明）在 Gartner 董事長兼執行長 Gene Hall 和 Gartner 財務長 Craig Safian 發表評論後，將進行問答環節。請告知，今天的會議正在錄製中。

This call will include a discussion of third quarter 2024 financial results and Gartner's outlook for 2024 as disclosed in today's earnings release and earnings supplement, both posted to our website, investor.gartner.com. On the call, unless stated otherwise, all references to EBITDA are for adjusted EBITDA, with the adjustments as described in our earnings release and supplement. Our contract values and associated growth rates we discuss are based on 2024 foreign exchange rates. All growth rates in Gene's comments are FX neutral, unless stated otherwise. All references to share counts are for fully diluted weighted average share counts, unless stated otherwise.

本次電話會議將包括討論 2024 年第三季財務業績以及 Gartner 對 2024 年的展望，如今天的收益發布和收益補充報告中所披露，兩者均發佈在我們的網站 Investor.gartner.com 上。在電話會議上，除非另有說明，所有提及的 EBITDA 均指調整後的 EBITDA，調整情況如我們的收益發布和補充中所述。我們討論的合約價值和相關成長率是基於 2024 年外匯匯率。除非另有說明，Gene 評論中的所有成長率均對匯率保持中立。除非另有說明，否則所有提及的股份數量均指完全稀釋的加權平均股數。

Reconciliations for all non-GAAP numbers we use are available in the Investor Relations section of the gartner.com website. As set forth in more detail in today's earnings release, certain statements made on this call may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can vary materially from actual results and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those contained in the company's 2023 annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q as well as in other filings with the SEC. I encourage all of you to review the risk factors listed in these documents.

我們使用的所有非 GAAP 資料的調整可在 gartner.com 網站的投資者關係部分找到。正如今天的財報中更詳細地闡述的那樣，本次電話會議中所做的某些陳述可能構成前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述可能與實際結果有重大差異，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，包括公司2023 年10-K 表格年度報告和10-Q 表格季度報告以及其他文件中包含的風險和不確定性。我鼓勵大家查看這些文件中列出的風險因素。

Now I will turn the call over to Gartner's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Gene Hall.

現在我將電話轉交給 Gartner 董事長兼執行長 Gene Hall。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us today. Gartner continues to remain resilient in a complex environment. In Q3, contract value grew high single digits. Financial results for the third quarter were ahead of expectations. We raised our 2024 guidance for revenue, EBITDA, EPS and free cash flow.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。 Gartner 在複雜的環境中持續保持彈性。第三季度，合約價值出現高個位數成長。第三季的財務表現超乎預期。我們上調了 2024 年收入、EBITDA、每股盈餘和自由現金流的指引。

Leaders in every enterprise continue to face more simultaneous disruptions than ever before. Gartner is the best source for actionable objective insight to drive smart decisions and stronger performance on an organization's mission-critical priorities. A powerful way to experience our research insights is to attend a Gartner conference. At the start of every conference, our analysts deliver a thought-provoking keynote on a critically important topic.

每個企業的領導者都繼續面臨比以往更多的同時中斷。 Gartner 是可操作的客觀洞察力的最佳來源，可推動明智的決策並提高組織關鍵任務優先事項的績效。體驗我們的研究見解的一個有效方法是參加 Gartner 會議。在每次會議開始時，我們的分析師都會就一個至關重要的主題發表發人深省的主題演講。

I recently attended Gartner's IT Symposium Expo in Orlando, Florida. In the opening keynote, our analysts inspired thousands of CIOs and IT executives. They showed these leaders how to implement AI in the right places at the right pace for their environments. The keynote received among the highest ratings ever.

我最近參加了在佛羅裡達州奧蘭多舉行的 Gartner IT Symposium Expo。在開幕主題演講中，我們的分析師激勵了數千名 CIO 和 IT 主管。他們向這些領導者展示瞭如何在適合其環境的正確地點以正確的速度實施人工智慧。這場主題演講獲得了有史以來最高的評價。

Gartner delivers unparalleled value at the intersection of business and technology. We help our clients manage risk, save time, save money and build confidence. We got clients through a wide range of topics, for example, cybersecurity, strategic workforce planning, cost optimization and leveraging generative AI across multiple disciplines, including procurement, brand management and sales enablement. Research continues to be our largest and most profitable segment. Our research business source leaders across all major enterprise functions in every industry and every geography, and our market opportunity is vast. Within our research business, contract value with enterprise function leaders grew 9%, and contract value with tech vendor clients continued the improvement we saw last quarter.

Gartner 在業務和技術的交叉領域提供了無與倫比的價值。我們幫助客戶管理風險、節省時間、節省金錢並建立信心。我們幫助客戶了解了廣泛的主題，例如網路安全、策略勞動力規劃、成本優化以及跨多個學科利用生成式人工智慧，包括採購、品牌管理和銷售支援。研究仍然是我們最大、最賺錢的部門。我們的研究業務尋找各行業和各地區所有主要企業職能部門的領導者，我們的市場機會是巨大的。在我們的研究業務中，與企業職能領導者的合約價值成長了 9%，與技術供應商客戶的合約價值持續保持上季的成長。

We serve executives and their teams through distinct sales channels. Global technology sales, or GTS, serves leaders and their teams within IT. Contract value was 6%, GTS new business growth was 8%. Global business sales, or GBS, serves leaders and their teams beyond IT. This includes HR, supply chain, finance, marketing, legal, sales and more. GBS new business growth was 10%, and contract value grew 12%.

我們透過不同的銷售管道為高階主管及其團隊提供服務。全球技術銷售 (GTS) 為 IT 領域的領導者及其團隊提供服務。合約金額為6%，GTS新業務成長為8%。全球業務銷售 (GBS) 為 IT 以外的領導者及其團隊提供服務。這包括人力資源、供應鏈、財務、行銷、法律、銷售等。 GBS新業務成長10%，合約價值成長12%。

Gartner conferences deliver extraordinarily valuable insights to an engaged and qualified audience. Revenue grew 30% in the third quarter, and we're off to a great start in Q4. Gartner consulting is an extension of Gartner research. Consulting helps clients execute their most strategic initiatives through deeper project-based work. Consulting is an important complement to our IT research business.

Gartner 會議為參與其中的合格觀眾提供極其有價值的見解。第三季營收成長了 30%，第四季我們有了一個好的開始。 Gartner 諮詢是 Gartner 研究的延伸。諮詢幫助客戶透過更深入的基於專案的工作執行最具策略意義的計劃。諮詢是我們 IT 研究業務的重要補充。

Labor-based consulting revenue grew 2%. Contract optimization revenue met our expectations. Our road to success has been driven by relentless execution of Gartner best practices. We continuously improve and innovate across our business. I'll share a few examples.

基於人工的諮詢收入成長了 2%。合約優化收入符合我們的預期。我們的成功之路得益於對 Gartner 最佳實踐的不懈執行。我們在整個業務中不斷改進和創新。我將分享幾個例子。

First, we deployed a state-of-the-art CRM system across most of our business. Now our teams have greater visibility to better serve our clients. We also added innovations to our phased approach to sales training, which positively impact sales productivity for new hires. One way we capture our large untapped market opportunity is by growing sales headcount. We accelerated hiring in the second half of 2024 and expect to continue growing our sales force into 2025 and beyond.

首先，我們在大部分業務中部署了最先進的 CRM 系統。現在，我們的團隊擁有更大的知名度，可以更好地為客戶服務。我們也對分階段銷售培訓方法進行了創新，這對新員工的銷售效率產生了正面影響。我們抓住尚未開發的巨大市場機會的一種方法是增加銷售人員數量。我們在 2024 年下半年加速招聘，並預計在 2025 年及以後繼續擴大我們的銷售團隊。

Another example of improvement is with early career salespeople. We're growing and refining our apprentice type program that lets early career salespeople gain valuable experience before they take on direct full-to-brain roles. And we're leveraging AI internally. We've built prototypes that our associates are using to match our vast library of powerful insights to each client situation, and those are just a few examples.

另一個改進的例子是早期職業銷售人員。我們正在發展和完善我們的學徒型計劃，讓早期職業銷售人員在直接擔任全腦角色之前獲得寶貴的經驗。我們正在內部利用人工智慧。我們已經建立了原型，我們的員工正在使用這些原型來將我們龐大的強大見解庫與每個客戶的情況相匹配，而這些只是其中的幾個例子。

Developing creates best practices and executing them consistently is a core part of our strategy. In closing, Gartner delivered financial results ahead of expectations. We delivered 9% contract value growth with enterprise function leaders. Tech vendor CV growth has turned the corner and continues to accelerate. Our client value proposition and addressable market opportunity will allow us to drive long-term sustained double-digit revenue growth.

開發創造最佳實踐並持續執行它們是我們策略的核心部分。最後，Gartner 公佈的財務業績超出了預期。我們與企業職能領導者的合約價值成長了 9%。技術供應商的履歷成長已經扭轉並繼續加速。我們的客戶價值主張和潛在的市場機會將使我們能夠推動長期持續的兩位數收入成長。

We'll continue to create value for our shareholders by providing actionable objective insight to our clients, prudently investing for future growth, and returning capital to our shareholders through our share repurchase program. We expect to deliver modest margin expansion over time, and we'll continue to generate significant free cash flow well in excess of net income. All of this and more positions us to continue our sustained track record of success far in the future.

我們將繼續為我們的股東創造價值，為我們的客戶提供可行的客觀見解，為未來成長審慎投資，並透過我們的股票回購計畫向股東返還資本。我們預計隨著時間的推移，利潤率將實現適度增長，並且我們將繼續產生遠遠超過淨利潤的大量自由現金流。所有這些以及更多因素使我們能夠在未來繼續保持成功的記錄。

With that, I'll hand the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Craig Safian.

接下來，我會將電話轉交給我們的財務長 Craig Safian。

Thank you, Gene, and good morning. Third-quarter contract value grew 7% year-over-year, another good performance in a still complex environment. Third-quarter revenue, EBITDA, and EPS all came in ahead of our expectations. We are updating our guidance based on the Q3 results and an improved outlook for the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，吉恩，早安。第三季合約價值年增 7%，在依然複雜的環境下再次取得良好表現。第三季營收、EBITDA 和每股盈餘均超出我們的預期。我們正在根據第三季的業績和第四季改善的前景更新我們的指導。

Also, during the third quarter, we received $300 million before taxes related to conference cancellation insurance for the conferences affected by the pandemic. We have repurchased more than $630 million of stock through September and remain eager to repurchase shares opportunistically.

此外，在第三季度，我們收到了與受疫情影響的會議取消保險相關的稅前 3 億美元。截至 9 月份，我們已回購了超過 6.3 億美元的股票，並且仍然渴望趁機回購股票。

Third-quarter revenue was $1.5 billion, up 5% year-over-year as reported and 6% FX neutral. In addition, total contribution margin was 68%, consistent with last year. EBITDA was $340 million, up 2% as reported and 3% FX neutral versus the third quarter of 2023.

第三季營收為 15 億美元，較去年同期成長 5%，剔除匯率影響後成長 6%。此外，總邊際貢獻率為68%，與去年一致。 EBITDA 為 3.4 億美元，與 2023 年第三季相比成長 2%，且受匯率影響成長 3%。

Adjusted EPS was $2.50 compared with $2.56 in Q3 of last year. And free cash flow, including the insurance-related proceeds, was $565 million. Research revenue in the third quarter grew 5% year-over-year as reported and FX neutral. Subscription revenue grew 7% FX neutral. Non-subscription research revenue was in line with our expectations.

調整後每股收益為 2.50 美元，去年第三季為 2.56 美元。自由現金流（包括與保險相關的收益）為 5.65 億美元。據報告，在匯率中立的情況下，第三季的研究收入年增 5%。訂閱收入成長 7%（匯率中立）。非訂閱研究收入符合我們的預期。

Third-quarter research contribution margin was 74%, consistent with last year. Contract value was $5 billion at the end of the third quarter, up 7% versus the prior year and up about $104 million from the second quarter. CV from enterprise function leaders across GTS and GBS grew 9%. Contract value and CV growth are FX neutral.

第三季研究貢獻率為 74%，與去年持平。第三季末合約價值為 50 億美元，比上年增長 7%，比第二季增加約 1.04 億美元。 GTS 和 GBS 的企業職能領導者的履歷增加了 9%。合約價值和履歷成長不受匯率影響。

CV growth was broad-based across practices, industry sectors, company sizes and geographic regions. Tech vendor contract value has turned a corner with strong new business and continued contract value acceleration in Q3.

履歷的成長涉及各個實踐、行業領域、公司規模和地理區域。隨著第三季強勁的新業務和合約價值的持續加速，技術供應商合約價值已經出現轉折點。

Across our combined practices, half of the industry sectors grew at double-digit or high single-digit rates, led by the energy, healthcare and manufacturing sectors. CV grew at high single-digit rates across all enterprise sizes except small, which grew low single digits and has the largest tech vendor mix. We also drove double-digit or high single-digit growth in the majority of our top 10 countries.

在我們的綜合實踐中，一半的產業部門以兩位數或高個位數成長率成長，其中以能源、醫療保健和製造業為首。除小型企業外，所有規模的企業的 CV 均以高個位數成長率成長，小型企業的成長率較低，且擁有最大的技術供應商組合。我們還在大多數排名前 10 的國家/地區實現了兩位數或高單位數成長。

Global technology sales contract value was $3.9 billion at the end of the third quarter, up 6% versus the prior year. GTS enterprise leader CV increased high single digits. Tech vendor CV growth improved from Q2 as the positive shift, which began last quarter, continued. GTS CV increased $67 million from the second quarter, while retention for GTS was 101% for the quarter, similar to Q2.

截至第三季末，全球技術銷售合約價值為 39 億美元，年增 6%。 GTS企業領導者履歷表成長高個位數。隨著上季開始的積極轉變的持續，技術供應商的 CV 成長較第二季有所改善。 GTS CV 較第二季增加了 6,700 萬美元，而本季 GTS 的保留率為 101%，與第二季類似。

Enterprise leader wallet retention was consistent with historical levels. GTS new business was up 8% compared to last year. CTS quota-bearing head count was up 1% year-over-year. We added more than 90 sellers in the quarter, the largest sequential increase since Q4 of 2022. This sets us up to deliver on mid-single-digit QBH growth for GTS by the end of the year. Our regular full set of GTS metrics can be found in our earnings supplement.

企業領導者的錢包保留率與歷史水準一致。 GTS新業務較去年成長8%。 CTS 配額人數較去年同期成長 1%。我們在本季增加了 90 多家賣家，這是自 2022 年第四季以來的最大連續增幅。我們的常規全套 GTS 指標可以在我們的收益補充中找到。

Global business sales contract value was $1.2 billion at the end of the third quarter, up 12% year-over-year. All of our GBS practices grew at double-digit rates other than marketing and sales, which grew mid-single digits. Growth was led by the finance, legal and supply chain practices. GBS CV increased $37 million from the second quarter.

截至第三季末，全球業務銷售合約價值為12億美元，年增12%。除了行銷和銷售實現中個位數成長外，我們所有的 GBS 業務都以兩位數的速度成長。成長主要由金融、法律和供應鏈業務帶動。 GBS CV 較第二季增加了 3,700 萬美元。

While retention for GBS was 106% for the quarter, which compares to 108% in the prior year, GBS new business was up 10% compared to last year. GBS quota-bearing head count was up 8% year-over-year, and we continue to target high single-digit growth for 2024. As with GTS, our regular full set of GBS metrics can be found in our earnings supplement.

雖然本季 GBS 的保留率為 106%，而去年同期為 108%，但 GBS 新業務較去年增長了 10%。 GBS 配額員工人數年增 8%，我們繼續以 2024 年高個位數成長為目標。

Conferences revenue for the third quarter was $76 million, increasing 32% as reported and 30% FX neutral compared to Q3 of 2023. Contribution margin was 40%, consistent with typical Q3 seasonality. We held 10 destination conferences in the third quarter.

第三季的會議收入為7,600 萬美元，與2023 年第三季相比成長了32%，且與2023 年第三季相比成長了30%。季度季節性相符。第三季我們舉辦了10場目的地會議。

Third-quarter consulting revenue was $128 million compared with $133 million in the year ago period. Consulting contribution margin was 33% in the third quarter. Labor-based revenue was $101 million, up 2% versus Q3 of last year as reported and FX neutral. Backlog at September 30 was $218 million, increasing 21% year-over-year on an FX-neutral basis with continued booking strength.

第三季諮詢收入為 1.28 億美元，去年同期為 1.33 億美元。第三季諮詢貢獻率為 33%。基於勞動力的收入為 1.01 億美元，與去年第三季報告相比成長 2%，且匯率中立。截至 9 月 30 日，積壓訂單為 2.18 億美元，在匯率中性的基礎上年增 21%，預訂量持續強勁。

In contract optimization, we delivered $26 million of revenue in the quarter with a very tough compare from Q3 of last year. Our contract optimization revenue is highly variable.

在合約優化方面，我們本季實現了 2,600 萬美元的收入，與去年第三季相比非常艱難。我們的合約優化收入變化很大。

Consolidated cost of services increased 5% year-over-year in the third quarter as reported and FX neutral. The biggest driver of the increase was higher compensation costs. SG&A increased 8% year-over-year in the third quarter as reported and on an FX-neutral basis. SG&A increased in the quarter as a result of headcount growth, which contributed to higher compensation costs.

據報告，在匯率中立的情況下，第三季綜合服務成本年增 5%。成長的最大推動因素是補償成本上漲。據報告，在匯率中立的基礎上，第三季銷售、管理及行政費用較去年同期成長 8%。由於員工人數成長，本季的銷售、管理及管理費用增加，導致薪資成本上升。

EBITDA for the third quarter was $340 million, up 2% from last year as reported and up 3% FX neutral. We outperformed in the third quarter through revenue upside, effective expense management and a prudent approach to guidance.

第三季 EBITDA 為 3.4 億美元，比去年同期成長 2%，匯率中性因素成長 3%。我們透過收入成長、有效的費用管理和審慎的指導方法在第三季度表現出色。

Depreciation in the quarter of $29 million was up 18% compared to 2023. Net interest expense, excluding deferred financing costs in the quarter, was $17 million. This is favorable by $4 million versus the third quarter of 2023 due to higher interest income on our cash balances. The modest floating rate debt we have is fully hedged through the third quarter of 2025.

本季的折舊為 2,900 萬美元，與 2023 年相比成長了 18%。由於我們現金餘額的利息收入增加，這比 2023 年第三季增加了 400 萬美元。我們擁有的適度浮動利率債務將在 2025 年第三季得到充分對沖。

The Q3 adjusted tax rate, which we use for the calculation of adjusted net income, was 26% for the quarter. This compares to last year's rate of 22%. The tax rate for the items used to adjust net income was 17% for the quarter. Adjusted EPS in Q3 was $2.50 compared with $2.56 last year.

我們用於計算調整後淨利的第三季調整後稅率為 26%。相比之下，去年的成長率為 22%。本季用於調整淨利潤的項目稅率為 17%。第三季調整後每股收益為 2.50 美元，去年為 2.56 美元。

We had 78 million shares outstanding in the third quarter. This is an improvement of close to 1.6 million shares or about 2% year-over-year. We exited the third quarter with about 78 million shares on an unweighted basis.

第三季我們有 7,800 萬股流通股。這比去年同期增加了近 160 萬股，約 2%。第三季結束時，我們持有約 7,800 萬股未加權股票。

Operating cash flow for the quarter was $591 million compared with $331 million in Q3 of 2023. This includes $300 million of insurance-related proceeds we received in the quarter. We expect to pay the associated taxes during Q4. CapEx for the quarter was $26 million, in line with our expectations.

本季的營運現金流為 5.91 億美元，而 2023 年第三季為 3.31 億美元。我們預計在第四季支付相關稅款。本季資本支出為 2600 萬美元，符合我們的預期。

Free cash flow for the quarter was $565 million, including the insurance-related proceeds. Free cash flow on a rolling four-quarter basis was 119% of GAAP net income. Excluding the insurance-related proceeds, free cash flow was 16% of revenue and 63% of EBITDA. Our free cash flow conversion is generally higher when CV growth is accelerating.

該季度的自由現金流為 5.65 億美元，其中包括與保險相關的收益。滾動四個季度的自由現金流佔 GAAP 淨利潤的 119%。不包括保險相關收益，自由現金流佔收入的 16%，佔 EBITDA 的 63%。當履歷成長加速時，我們的自由現金流轉換通常會更高。

At the end of the third quarter, we had about $1.8 billion of cash. Our September 30 debt balance was about $2.5 billion. Our reported gross debt to trailing 12-month EBITDA was under 2x. Our expected free cash flow generation, available revolver, and excess cash remaining on the balance sheet provide ample liquidity to deliver on our capital allocation strategy of disciplined share repurchases and strategic tuck-in M&A.

截至第三季末，我們擁有約 18 億美元的現金。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的債務餘額約為 25 億美元。我們報告的總債務與過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 相比低於 2 倍。我們預期的自由現金流產生、可用循環資金以及資產負債表上剩餘的多餘現金提供了充足的流動性，以實現我們嚴格的股票回購和策略性併購的資本配置策略。

Our balance sheet is very strong with $2.5 billion of liquidity, low levels of leverage and effectively fixed interest rates. We repurchased $69 million of stock during the third quarter. As of the end of Q3, our share repurchase authorization is more than $1 billion. As we continue to repurchase shares, our capital base will shrink. Over time, this is accretive to earnings per share and, combined with growing profits, also delivers increasing returns on invested capital.

我們的資產負債表非常強勁，擁有 25 億美元的流動性、低槓桿水準和有效的固定利率。我們在第三季回購了價值 6,900 萬美元的股票。截至第三季末，我們的股票回購授權超過10億美元。隨著我們繼續回購股票，我們的資本基礎將會縮小。隨著時間的推移，這會增加每股收益，並與不斷增長的利潤相結合，也帶來不斷增加的投資資本回報。

We are updating our full year guidance to reflect recent performance and trends. We increased the outlook for all three segments: research, conferences and consulting. And our EBITDA guidance reflects Q3 upside and an increased outlook for Q4. As a reminder, about 1/3 of our revenue and operating expenses are denominated in currencies other than the US dollar. Based on recent FX rates, we expect currency to be a modest benefit in Q4.

我們正在更新全年指導，以反映最近的表現和趨勢。我們提高了所有三個領域的前景：研究、會議和諮詢。我們的 EBITDA 指引反映了第三季的成長和第四季的成長前景。提醒一下，我們約 1/3 的收入和營運支出以美元以外的貨幣計價。根據最近的匯率，我們預計第四季度貨幣將適度受益。

Our updated 2024 guidance is as follows. We expect research revenue of at least $5.11 billion, which is FX-neutral growth of about 5%. This reflects subscription research revenue growth of about 7%. We expect conferences revenue of at least $580 million, which is FX-neutral growth of about 15%. We expect consulting revenue of at least $535 million, which is a growth of about 5% FX-neutral. The result is an outlook for consolidated revenue of at least $6.225 billion, which is FX-neutral growth of 6%.

我們更新的 2024 年指引如下。我們預計研究收入至少為 51.1 億美元，剔除匯率因素後將成長約 5%。這反映出訂閱研究收入成長約 7%。我們預計會議收入至少為 5.8 億美元，剔除匯率因素後將成長約 15%。我們預計諮詢收入至少為 5.35 億美元，扣除匯率因素後成長約 5%。結果是，綜合收入前景至少為 62.25 億美元，在匯率中立的情況下成長 6%。

We now expect full year EBITDA of at least $1.52 billion, up $60 million from our prior guidance. We expect 2024 adjusted EPS of at least $11.75. For 2024, we expect free cash flow of at least $1.35 billion. The increase from prior guidance reflects several items. First, improved operating performance; second, the insurance-related proceeds we received in August, net of estimated taxes; and third, a non-recurring payment related to our ongoing real estate planning. The guidance reflects a conversion from GAAP net income of 126%.

我們現在預計全年 EBITDA 至少為 15.2 億美元，比我們之前的指導增加 6000 萬美元。我們預計 2024 年調整後每股盈餘至少為 11.75 美元。 2024 年，我們預計自由現金流至少為 13.5 億美元。較之前指引的增加反映了幾個面向。一是經營業績提升；第二，我們在八月收到的與保險相關的收益，扣除估計的稅金；第三，與我們正在進行的房地產規劃相關的非經常性付款。該指引反映了 126% 的 GAAP 淨利潤轉換。

Our guidance is based on 78 million fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding, which reflects the repurchases made through the end of the third quarter. Our financial results through September have been ahead of our plan despite continuing global macro uncertainty. CV grew high single digits in the quarter, and we believe the first quarter of 2024 was the bottom for CV growth in this cycle. We repurchased more than $630 million of stock year-to-date through September and remain eager to return excess capital to our shareholders. We will continue to be price sensitive, opportunistic and disciplined.

我們的指引基於 7,800 萬股完全稀釋加權平均已發行股票，反映了截至第三季末的回購情況。儘管全球宏觀經濟持續存在不確定性，但截至 9 月的財務表現仍超出了我們的計劃。本季 CV 出現高個位數成長，我們認為 2024 年第一季是本週期 CV 成長的底部。年初至今，截至 9 月份，我們回購了超過 6.3 億美元的股票，並且仍然渴望將多餘的資本回饋給股東。我們將繼續保持價格敏感、機會主義和紀律。

Looking out over the medium term, our financial model and expectations are unchanged. With 12% to 16% research CV growth, we will deliver double-digit revenue growth. With gross margin expansion, sales costs growing about in line with CV growth and G&A leverage, we will deliver modest EBITDA margin expansion over time. We can grow free cash flow at least as fast as EBITDA because of our modest CapEx needs and the benefits of our clients paying us upfront. And we'll continue to deploy our capital on share repurchases, which will lower the share count over time and on strategic value-enhancing tuck-in M&A.

展望中期，我們的財務模式和預期保持不變。隨著 12% 至 16% 的研究 CV 成長，我們將實現兩位數的營收成長。隨著毛利率的擴張、銷售成本的成長與CV成長和一般行政費用槓桿大致一致，我們將隨著時間的推移實現適度的EBITDA利潤率擴張。由於我們適度的資本支出需求以及客戶預先向我們付款的好處，我們的自由現金流增長速度至少可以與 EBITDA 一樣快。我們將繼續將資金用於股票回購，這將隨著時間的推移減少股票數量，並用於策略價值提升的併購。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator, and we'll be happy to take your questions. Operator?

這樣，我會將電話轉回給接線員，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Meuler, Robert W. Baird.

（操作員說明）Jeff Meuler、Robert W. Baird。

Yes, thank you. Good morning. Can you just comment on GTS enterprise leader, I guess, end market conditions or pipeline? Just trying to triangulate from what you're giving us on tech vendor getting better as well as the 9% enterprise function with GBS growing 11.6%. It looks like it might have decelerated a little bit. So just any help on pipeline and anything beyond macro sales capacity, et cetera.

是的，謝謝。早安.您能否簡單評論一下 GTS 企業領導者（我猜）的終端市場狀況或管道？只是試圖從您向我們提供的資訊中得出技術供應商變得更好以及 9% 的企業功能以及 GBS 增長 11.6% 的情況。看起來它可能已經減速了一點。因此，只是對通路的任何幫助以及超出宏觀銷售能力的任何幫助，等等。

Jeff, it's Gene. So in terms of pipeline, we have a robust pipeline for GTS enterprise leaders. We have a very strong value proposition. We're on the issues that people really care about it. So our pipeline link is very strong.

傑夫，我是吉恩。所以在管道方面，我們為GTS企業領導者提供了強大的管道。我們有非常強大的價值主張。我們關注的是人們真正關心的問題。所以我們的管道連接非常牢固。

From time to time, there's some reconfiguration that goes on in terms of our sales force and any results in a particular quarter are influenced by the particular SKU of renewals that quarter and other things, but we're kind of uncontracted with where we expected. And again, we have just a great pipeline for GTS users.

有時，我們的銷售團隊會進行一些重新配置，特定季度的任何結果都會受到該季度續約的特定 SKU 和其他因素的影響，但我們與我們的預期並沒有簽訂合約。再說一次，我們為 GTS 用戶提供了一個很棒的管道。

Okay. And then on expenses, is 2024 expected to be a good baseline to expand modestly from over time for adjusted EBITDA margins? Or could there be, I guess, more of a headwind as growth investment gets fully reinstated with you reaccelerating sales headcount.

好的。那麼在費用方面，預計 2024 年是否會成為調整後 EBITDA 利潤率隨著時間的推移適度擴張的良好基準？或者，我猜，隨著銷售人員數量的重新增加，成長投資完全恢復，可能會出現更多的阻力。

So I think a couple of thoughts there. So one, '24 is a relatively good baseline from an operating expense perspective rolling forward. The only thing I would highlight is the growth in both GTS and GBS headcount that we're building into 2024 has been back-end loaded. And so obviously, we'll pay for that from a full year perspective next year. And then, as Gene mentioned in his prepared remarks, we intend to continue to grow our sales force to go after that huge untapped market opportunity into the future.

所以我有一些想法。因此，從營運費用的角度來看，24 年是一個相對較好的基準。我唯一要強調的是，我們在 2024 年建構的 GTS 和 GBS 員工數量的成長已經是後端加載的。顯然，我們將從明年全年的角度為此付出代價。然後，正如吉恩在他準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們打算繼續擴大我們的銷售隊伍，以抓住未來巨大的未開發市場機會。

So I think the way we sort of think about the OpEx base is where '24 is a relatively good baseline and safe for the back end loading of our GTS and GBS headcount. And as we roll into 2025, we want to make sure that we continue to make those investments in GTS and GBS headcount and other key areas of the business to make sure that we drive strong retention rates, we drive productivity, and we drive sustained growth to the top line over time.

因此，我認為我們對 OpEx 基礎的思考方式是，'24 是一個相對較好的基線，對於我們的 GTS 和 GBS 員工數量的後端載入來說是安全的。進入 2025 年，我們希望確保繼續對 GTS 和 GBS 員工人數以及其他關鍵業務領域進行投資，以確保我們提高保留率、提高生產力並推動持續增長隨著時間的推移，達到頂線。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

東尼卡普蘭，摩根士丹利。

I guess, at this point in the year, you're probably talking to a lot of clients on renewals. And so just wanted to hear if there's anything interesting that you're hearing from them about their '25 budgets and what your expectations are for the selling environment for next year?

我想，今年的這個時候，您可能正在與許多客戶討論續約事宜。所以只是想聽聽您是否從他們那裡聽到了有關他們 25 年預算的有趣信息以及您對明年銷售環境的期望是什麼？

Toni, we have renewals all year long. But if I look at what's going on right now and our client's '25 budgets, they're expecting a better year in '25 than in '24 right now, which, if that proceeds large, it'll be good for all of us. But right now, that's what we hear, is that they're expecting '25 budget, a lot of things are better than '24.

托尼，我們全年都有續約。但如果我看看現在發生的事情以及我們客戶的 25 年預算，他們預計 25 年會比現在的 24 年更好，如果進展順利，這對我們所有人都有好處。但現在，我們聽到的是，他們期待 25 年的預算，很多事情都比 24 年好。

Great. And I was hoping you could give us an update on your sales force tenure. I know you've been working on a number of initiatives to retain and attract the best salespeople. Just wanted to hear how those initiatives are going and your retention relative to history? And are you where you want to be with regard to sales headcount? I know it's a continuous process, but just anything around the tenure and sales force attraction?

偉大的。我希望您能為我們介紹一下您的銷售人員任期的最新情況。我知道您一直致力於採取一系列措施來留住和吸引最優秀的銷售人員。只是想聽聽這些舉措的進展以及您相對於歷史的保留？您的銷售人員數量是否達到您想要的水平？我知道這是一個持續的過程，但圍繞任期和銷售人員吸引力的任何事情？

Yes. We have a fantastic value proposition for prospective salespeople as well as other associates for Gartner. So we have a very -- and if you think about -- when we hire people, we have on the order of 200 people apply for every job. And so we kind of get to pick from the best of the best in terms of who we hire, also because we have a very strong associate value proposition. Our associate turnover is very low.

是的。我們為潛在銷售人員以及 Gartner 的其他同事提供了極佳的價值主張。所以，如果你想一想，當我們僱用員工時，我們會收到大約 200 人申請每項工作。因此，我們在聘用人員時會從最優秀的人才中進行挑選，這也是因為我們有非常強大的員工價值主張。我們的員工流動率非常低。

So our turnover has been lower, but the reason it's not any lower than this is because we're managing the bottom group to make sure that we're always upgrading our talent. And so again, we have a great associate value proposition that allows us to really attract great people. Our turnover is very low. It's in the range that we would like it to be in exactly. Any lower would be too low because we wouldn't be performing enough performance management.

因此，我們的人員流動率較低，但之所以沒有低於這個水平，是因為我們管理的是底層團隊，以確保我們始終能夠提升我們的人才。再說一次，我們有一個偉大的員工價值主張，使我們能夠真正吸引優秀的人才。我們的營業額非常低。它正好在我們希望的範圍內。任何更低的值都太低了，因為我們無法執行足夠的績效管理。

And in terms of tenure, what that electric with is, our tenure has been slowly rising over time. And again, as Craig mentioned in his remarks, we accelerated higher -- and I mentioned as well, we've accelerated our investment so that puts some newer people in the sales force, but overall tenure has been rising.

就任期而言，隨著時間的推移，我們的任期一直在緩慢上升。正如克雷格在他的演講中提到的那樣，我們的速度更快——我也提到過，我們加快了投資，以便讓一些新人進入銷售隊伍，但總體任期一直在上升。

Alex Lakrits, Goldman Sachs.

亞歷克斯·拉克里茨，高盛。

This is George Tong with Goldman. I guess with respect to tech vendor contract value, you mentioned that it's turned the corner and continues to accelerate. Can you talk about where the growth is currently now? And when you would expect the CV growth with tech vendors to more meaningfully improve in performance given prevailing trends?

我是高盛的喬治唐。我想就技術供應商合約價值而言，您提到它已經渡過難關並繼續加速。您能談談目前的成長情況嗎？鑑於當前趨勢，您何時預期技術供應商的履歷成長會更有意義地提高績效？

So George, with tech vendor, what's going on is that with our new business, and in fact, Craig and I mentioned this, new business to tech vendors actually has rebounded pretty nicely, but we still have some tech vendors that are particularly small tech vendors that are financially challenged. They aren't doing that well and they can't get the funding.

喬治，對於技術供應商來說，我們的新業務正在發生的事情，事實上，克雷格和我提到過這一點，技術供應商的新業務實際上已經很好地反彈，但我們仍然有一些技術供應商是特別小的技術供應商面臨財務挑戰的供應商。他們做得不好，也得不到資金。

They may have a contract that's still in force. They may actually renew, but they're renewing at lower rates. And so what's dragging our growth down in our tech business right now is the fact that we have particularly very small vendors that can't get funding, but have contracts with us, could be one-, two- or even a three-year contract that's coming up for renewal.

他們的合約可能仍然有效。他們實際上可能會續訂，但續訂率較低。因此，目前拖累我們科技業務成長的事實是，我們有特別非常小的供應商，他們無法獲得資金，但與我們簽訂了合同，可能是一年、兩年甚至三年的合同即將更新。

And those are renewed at lower rates than we've seen historically. Eventually, that will go through. But again, I think a very positive sign is that our new business, our sales, both to existing clients and new logos for tech vendors has rebounded nicely and it's more in the range of historical levels.

這些更新的速度比我們歷史上看到的要低。最終，這一切都會過去。但我再次認為，一個非常積極的跡像是，我們的新業務、我們對現有客戶的銷售以及技術供應商的新標誌都出現了良好的反彈，並且更多地處於歷史水平範圍內。

Got it. That's helpful. And then with the consulting business, you mentioned the contract optimization piece at tough comps and growth can sometimes be variable. Can you talk a little bit more about the trends that drive this business and what you're seeing with the trends there or overall trends improving? And what would you expect going forward to be the key driver of performance with this part of the consulting business?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，在諮詢業務方面，您提到了在艱難的競爭中的合約優化部分，成長有時可能會發生變化。您能否多談談推動該業務的趨勢以及您所看到的趨勢或整體趨勢的改善？您認為這部分諮詢業務未來績效的關鍵驅動因素是什麼？

So in that business, we have a very strong value proposition, which is we help clients get better deals in terms of both pricing and terms on very large contracts. So if we have a client that's going to a very large CRM system or something like that, and they're spending -- the contracts there could be $50 million, $100 million, $500 million in terms of that we're helping clients get better deals on. So it's very strong value proposition. And our track record in helping the clients is very strong there. And so that's kind of the fundamentals of the business.

因此，在該業務中，我們有一個非常強大的價值主張，即我們幫助客戶在大型合約的定價和條款方面獲得更好的交易。因此，如果我們有一個客戶需要一個非常大的 CRM 系統或類似的系統，而他們正在支出——合約金額可能是 5,000 萬美元、1 億美元、5 億美元，因為我們正在幫助客戶變得更好交易。所以這是非常強大的價值主張。我們在幫助客戶方面的記錄非常出色。這就是業務的基本原理。

Having said that, the business you can imagine, if you're doing $100 million deals, it's lumpy. It's not -- they don't all come in exactly on a week or something like that. It depends on what the clients' needs are, and also negotiations could take time. The actual client budget could change, they could decide they want to accelerate or push it off for six months. But it's more -- what drives that business is, first, our very strong value proposition.

話雖如此，你可以想像，如果你要做價值 1 億美元的交易，那生意就會很坎坷。事實並非如此——他們並不都是在一周之類的時間來的。這取決於客戶的需求，而且談判可能需要時間。實際的客戶預算可能會發生變化，他們可能會決定要加速還是推遲六個月。但更重要的是——推動這項業務的首先是我們非常強大的價值主張。

But then when we realize that value is very variable depending on -- we get paid when the clients actually signed the deal and so depending on the skew of how big the deals are and when they get signed is why our -- we have the very build in that business. So last year, it happened that there were an unusually large -- extremely large number of those kinds of deals in Q3. We had a great Q3, but it wasn't quite as strong as it was last year in that business. And it's just a matter of the kind of variability that I just went through.

但是，當我們意識到價值變化很大時，我們會在客戶實際簽署交易時獲得報酬，因此取決於交易規模和簽署時間的偏差，這就是我們的原因建立該業務。因此，去年第三季出現了異常大量的此類交易。我們的第三季表現出色，但在該業務方面的表現不如去年那麼強勁。這只是我剛剛經歷的那種變化的問題。

And George, as order of magnitude, last year, reported growth rate in Q3 was 98%. So it was -- definitely meets the definition in my mind of very tough compare. And I think over the short term, medium term and long term, we expect this business to grow in line with our consulting medium-term objective as well. But from a quarter-to-quarter basis, as Gene outlined, and for all the reasons he Gene outlined, it can be very variable quarter to quarter to quarter. But it's a great business because it delivers a very strong value proposition for our clients.

喬治去年第三季的成長率為 98%。所以它絕對符合我心目中非常艱難的比較的定義。我認為從短期、中期和長期來看，我們預期這項業務的成長也符合我們的諮詢中期目標。但正如吉恩所概述的那樣，從季度到季度的基礎上，由於吉恩概述的所有原因，每個季度的情況可能會發生很大的變化。但這是一項偉大的業務，因為它為我們的客戶提供了非常強大的價值主張。

Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

安德魯尼古拉斯、威廉布萊爾。

This is [Tom Rush] on for Angie Nicolas. I wanted to focus on new business growth in the quarter across GTS and GBS. And I was wondering if you could unpack the underlying drivers there?

這是安吉·尼古拉斯的[湯姆·拉什]。我想重點關注本季度 GTS 和 GBS 的新業務成長。我想知道你是否可以在那裡解壓縮底層驅動程式？

Yes. So Tom, as we say, the GBS new business growth was 10% year-over-year. So really good solid double-digit growth. And as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, pretty broad-based performance across all the GBS practices. On the GTS side, year-over-year new business growth was 8%.

是的。 Tom，正如我們所說，GBS 新業務年增 10%。兩位數的成長確實非常好。正如我們在準備好的發言中所提到的，所有 GBS 實踐的表現都相當廣泛。 GTS方面，新業務年增8%。

And again, strong high single-digit year-over-year growth. And again, it's sort of broad-based across the bulk of GTS. I think when we think about the drivers, it sort of goes back to the strength of the value proposition of our research offerings and making sure that our sellers are generating enough opportunities within the pipeline and then are leveraging all of our best practices to work those things through the pipeline and convert into sales. And we -- that's sort of the strategy, and we continue to turn the crank on that. I wouldn't say there's any big external driver or a demand driver or anything like that other than the value proposition continues to remain incredibly strong in the end markets that we serve.

再次，強勁的高個位數年增。再說一次，它在大部分 GTS 中都有廣泛的基礎。我認為，當我們考慮驅動因素時，這可以追溯到我們研究產品的價值主張的強度，並確保我們的賣家在管道中產生足夠的機會，然後利用我們所有的最佳實踐來實現這些機會事物通過管道並轉化為銷售。我們——這就是一種策略，我們將繼續推動這項策略。我不會說有任何重大的外部驅動因素或需求驅動因素或類似的東西，除了我們服務的終端市場中的價值主張繼續保持難以置信的強勁。

Great. And then for my follow-up, I wanted to drill down on client spending more broadly in the quarter and just see how it trended relative to your expectations. And then any color you can add at the (inaudible) fourth quarter?

偉大的。然後，對於我的後續行動，我想更廣泛地深入了解本季的客戶支出，看看它相對於您的預期的趨勢如何。然後你可以在（聽不清楚）第四季添加任何顏色？

Again, I wouldn't say we saw anything different from a client spending or an end market perspective. As both Gene and I mentioned earlier, the world continues to be a pretty complex and dynamic place, and we are working our way through that.

再說一次，我不會說我們從客戶支出或終端市場的角度看到了任何不同的東西。正如吉恩和我之前提到的，世界仍然是一個相當複雜和動態的地方，我們正在努力解決這個問題。

Gene highlighted some of the big topics that a lot of our clients are very focused on, but it's not exclusively those. The clients we serve have lots and lots and lots of challenges. And obviously, Gartner is a great way to address those challenges and improve operational performance for the executives that we support.

吉恩強調了我們許多客戶非常關注的一些重大主題，但不僅僅是這些主題。我們服務的客戶面臨很多很多的挑戰。顯然，Gartner 是解決這些挑戰並為我們支援的高階主管提高營運績效的好方法。

So I think there's no big change from a client spending perspective or any external trend like that, more of the same. We're just focused on making sure that we're delivering value and continuing that.

因此，我認為從客戶支出的角度或任何類似的外部趨勢來看，沒有重大的變化，更多的是相同的。我們只是專注於確保我們正在提供價值並繼續下去。

Josh Chan, UBS.

喬許陳，瑞銀。

So last quarter, you suggested that the Q1 CV would be the bottom, but that the path of recovery may be uneven. I guess maybe taking a step back, what did you see that caused you to make that uneven comment? And as we stand here in Q3, what do you think about the pace going into Q4 in terms of CV?

因此，上個季度，您建議第一季的 CV 將觸底，但復甦的道路可能並不平坦。我想也許退後一步，你看到了什麼導致你做出不平衡的評論？當我們進入第三季時，您對進入第四季的 CV 步伐有何看法？

So Josh, the -- if you look at our contract value, in any given quarter, there are certain set of renewals that come up. It varies from quarter-to-quarter. And if there's more renewals in a quarter than another or one slips a quarter, that's kind of what's responsible for kind of the quarter-to-quarter variation, which is why we have said the path to accelerating our growth isn't going to be necessarily the exact straight line. And so you just see the normal variation in terms of what renewals. A new business deal may get pushed in another quarter.

所以喬希，如果你看看我們的合約價值，在任何給定的季度，都會出現一定的續約。每個季度都有所不同。如果一個季度的續訂量比另一個季度的續訂量多，或者一個季度的續訂量下滑，這就是造成季度間變化的原因，這就是為什麼我們說加速成長的道路不會是必然是精確的直線。因此，您只會看到續訂方面的正常變化。新的商業交易可能會在另一個季度內推進。

Again, if you add these up with big deals, it actually is what is responsible for that. But overall, again, we have a very strong value proposition. We see great demand from our clients on the issues you'd expect, so like cybersecurity, how do they use artificial intelligence, data and analytics, cost optimization is always popular, and again, it's a rocky macroeconomic situation right now. And so contract optimization continues to be something very important to many of our clients. And so the kind of strong value post is the same. It's just kind of the specifics of what happens each quarter, it caused us a little variability.

再說一次，如果你把這些與大交易加起來，它實際上就是造成這種情況的原因。但總的來說，我們再次擁有非常強大的價值主張。我們看到客戶對您所期望的問題有很大的需求，所以像網路安全、他們如何使用人工智慧、數據和分析、成本優化總是很受歡迎，而且現在的宏觀經濟形勢不穩定。因此，合約優化對於我們的許多客戶來說仍然非常重要。所以那種強價值的貼文也是一樣的。這只是每季發生的具體情況，它為我們帶來了一些變化。

And Josh, just to put it in sort of quick terms, with a roughly $5 billion base, a $3.5 million change in a quarter could be a 10-basis-point or at least reported around the 10-basis-point change. And so again, recognizing that the world is a very complex and dynamic place, deals may push, may come in early, et cetera, et cetera, and all the things' Gene just highlighted, that's why we guided that it may not be a straight line from a trend perspective. It can be a little bit rocky. But again, we're talking about potentially as small as swings as $3.5 million could drive a 10 basis point bump one way or the other.

喬希（Josh），簡單地說，以大約 50 億美元為基數，一個季度 350 萬美元的變化可能是 10 個基點，或者至少在 10 個基點變化左右報告。因此，再次認識到世界是一個非常複雜和動態的地方，交易可能會推動，可能會提前出現，等等，以及基因剛剛強調的所有事情，這就是為什麼我們指導它可能不是一個從趨勢角度看是直線。它可能有點崎嶇。但我們再次討論的是，小至 350 萬美元的波動都可能以某種方式推動 10 個基點的上漲。

That's right. That's definitely understandable. And then maybe on GBS CV, I guess, that's still a very healthy level, but it continues to step down a little bit sequentially. Could you talk about what you expect there? Or what's going on in terms of GBS CV?

這是正確的。這絕對是可以理解的。我想，也許在 GBS CV 上，這仍然是一個非常健康的水平，但它繼續按順序下降一點。您能談談您對那裡的期望嗎？或者 GBS CV 發生了什麼事？

And I don't know if sales and marketing practices have anything to do with that, but some comment on the trajectory there would be helpful.

我不知道銷售和行銷實踐是否與此有關，但對那裡的軌跡進行一些評論會有所幫助。

Let me spend just on GBS CV. GBS CV, you can think about it at a very high level, there's two groups. There's kind of new products that we've introduced that we refer to as GxL and then some of our legacy products that we inherited primarily from CEB. And we still have still a lot of CV there. And if you look at the new products that we've introduced, the GxL products, they're actually growing above our 12% to 16%.

讓我只花在 GBS CV 上。 GBS CV，你可以從非常高的層面來思考，有兩組。我們推出了一些新產品，我們稱之為 GxL，還有一些我們主要從 CEB 繼承的傳統產品。我們還有很多履歷。如果你看看我們推出的新產品，GxL 產品，它們的成長速度實際上高於我們的 12% 到 16%。

They continue to grow above our 12% to 16% medium-term growth range. And so the deceleration is really in some of the legacy products. As the economy has gotten a little rougher, those that renewal that are renewing at somewhat lower rates than they've done historically. And that's kind of the biggest factor that's impacting the GBS growth rate. So the GBS kind of new business is extremely healthy, doing extremely well.

它們的成長持續高於我們 12% 至 16% 的中期成長範圍。因此，減速確實出現在一些遺留產品中。隨著經濟變得有些困難，那些續訂的人的續訂率比歷史上要低一些。這是影響 GBS 成長率的最大因素。因此，GBS 類新業務非常健康，表現非常好。

And of course, we're managing the legacy products, but they're less attractive than they were. Each year, they get a little less attractive. So that's kind of the biggest drag that we have on GBS.

當然，我們正在管理遺留產品，但它們的吸引力不如以前了。年復一年，它們的吸引力都在減弱。所以這是我們對 GBS 的最大拖累。

Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

Faiza Alwy，德意志銀行。

So you mentioned a few times that you're helping clients implement AI in the right places. I know historically, you've talked about AI sort of not being a big driver of CV growth generally. I'm curious if now that we're further along the AI journey, if you think that could be a more significant contributor to overall new business as we look ahead to '25 and beyond?

所以您多次提到您正在幫助客戶在正確的地方實施人工智慧。我知道，從歷史上看，您曾談到人工智慧總體上並不是履歷成長的主要推動力。我很好奇，既然我們在人工智慧之旅上取得了進一步的進展，那麼當我們展望 25 年及以後時，您是否認為這可能對整體新業務做出更重要的貢獻？

Great question. So we -- our clients always expect us to be helping with the most important issues they have. And so at one point in time, a few years ago, it might have been cloud computing. And so if you look today, the issues that are really cost are the ones I mentioned earlier, which is clients are wrestling with how do we use AI. They're wrestling with how do we maintain tight cybersecurity.

很好的問題。因此，我們的客戶總是希望我們能夠幫助解決他們遇到的最重要的問題。因此，在幾年前的某個時間點，它可能是雲端運算。因此，如果你今天看一下，真正的成本問題就是我之前提到的問題，即客戶正在努力解決我們如何使用人工智慧的問題。他們正在努力解決我們如何維持嚴格的網路安全。

The rest of it, how do we maintain and access all of our data, all the data and analytics that every business needs to use today, and like the cost optimization. And that's true across all the functions in the business. In addition, there's kind of the geopolitical factors that are making organizational changes that we help people with. And so the one thing our business is we're always in kind of the issues that are most important to clients.

剩下的，我們如何維護和存取我們的所有數據，每個企業今天需要使用的所有數據和分析，以及成本優化。對於企業的所有職能部門都是如此。此外，還有一些地緣政治因素正在導致我們幫助人們進行組織變革。因此，我們的業務之一就是我們始終致力於解決對客戶最重要的問題。

Those histories change over time, so it doesn't mean, for example, if there's a new issue that now AI is more important to cloud. It means that all of a sudden, we get a huge demand. We've been helping them all along with the most important issues. And so on the margin, it helps, of course, but it's a whole range of issues. And we always run the most important at the time.

這些歷史隨著時間的推移而改變，所以這並不意味著，例如，如果出現一個新問題，現在人工智慧對雲端來說會更加重要。這意味著突然之間，我們得到了巨大的需求。我們一直在幫助他們解決最重要的問題。就邊際而言，它當然有幫助，但這是一系列問題。而我們總是在最重要的時候跑。

Great. That's helpful. And then I was curious, as we think about revenues into 2025, I know we're still waiting on 4Q CV, and that will be a big driver, but curious if there's any sort of early read on 2025, maybe you can share some thoughts on research and non-subscription revenue, where we saw some declines. Do you expect that business to grow? And maybe just additional color on -- in response to Toni's question around acceleration in CV next year?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後我很好奇，當我們考慮2025 年的收入時，我知道我們仍在等待4Q CV，這將是一個很大的驅動因素，但很好奇是否有任何關於2025 年的早期閱讀，也許你可以分享一些關於研究和非訂閱收入的想法，我們在這方面看到了一些下降。您預期該業務會成長嗎？也許只是為了回答托尼關於明年 CV 加速的問題而添加一些額外的顏色？

So I think we'll obviously provide a full view on 2025 guidance in February as is our normal practice. You're right in highlighting that the biggest driver of 2025 revenue is where CV and CV growth finishes in 2024. And we've got -- we're one month through the fourth quarter, and there's still a lot of deals that we are working. It's a very, very, very large quarter for us. And so where the dust settles on that will be the biggest driver around 2025.

因此，我認為我們顯然會按照我們的慣例在 2 月提供 2025 年指導的全面視圖。您正確地強調了 2025 年收入的最大推動力是 CV 和 CV 成長在 2024 年結束。對我們來說，這是一個非常非常大的季度。因此，塵埃落定將成為 2025 年左右最大的推動因素。

And then -- around 2025 revenue, I should say, more specifically. And then as we think about the business, we continue to believe and have great conviction behind the fact that we will get both GTS and GBS back to 12% to 16% growth over the medium term, and we expect to accelerate to those points over time. 2025 is a part of that time for sure. but we'll provide full guidance around 2025 as we normally do.

然後，更具體地說，是 2025 年左右的收入。然後，當我們考慮業務時，我們仍然相信並堅信我們將使 GTS 和 GBS 在中期內恢復到 12% 至 16% 的成長，並且我們預計將在時間。 2025 年肯定是那個時間的一部分。但我們將像往常一樣在 2025 年左右提供完整的指導。

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

馬納夫·帕特奈克，巴克萊銀行。

Craig, maybe just a follow up on that. Can you just remind us how big the fourth quarter is in terms of the percentage of renewals and maybe sales that are typically weighted towards that quarter?

克雷格，也許只是後續行動。您能否提醒我們，第四季度的續訂百分比以及通常加權到該季度的銷售額有多大？

The way to think about it and you kind of look back at historical numbers, we generate order of magnitude around half of our NCVI, which is the numerator for overall CV growth in the fourth quarter, and we generate order of magnitude about 40% of our annual new business in the fourth quarter. The one thing I would say is that we're not generally overloaded with renewals in the fourth quarter. Our teams do a really good job of when there's an opportunity to pull forward, we do that. And again, remember, we're also writing lots of multiyear deals when we sell them as well. But roughly 50% of NCVI happens in the fourth quarter, again, roughly, and about 40% of new business.

想想看，你回顧一下歷史數據，我們產生的數量級約為 NCVI 的一半，這是第四季度整體 CV 增長的分子，我們產生的數量級約為 NCVI 的 40%我們第四季度的年度新業務。我要說的一件事是，我們在第四季通常不會出現續訂過多的情況。我們的團隊做得非常好，當我們有機會前進時，我們就會這樣做。再次請記住，當我們出售它們時，我們也簽訂了許多多年期交易。但大約 50% 的 NCVI 發生在第四季度，同樣，大約 40% 的新業務發生在第四季度。

That's helpful. And Gene, just on the hiring, the quota-bearing headcount strategy, you talked about better budget expectations in talking to your customers. The pipeline is robust. I think you said 200 applicants per job posting.

這很有幫助。吉恩，就招募、配額員工策略而言，您在與客戶交談時談到了更好的預算預期。管道很堅固。我記得你說過每個職缺有 200 位申請人。

Historically, I think you've always being in the camp of hiring aggressively even when things were costly ready for the rebound. So just curious why mid-single digits by year-end is the strategy today versus a bigger number to be ready for the rebound?

從歷史上看，我認為即使在為反彈做好準備的代價高昂的情況下，你總是會積極招募。所以只是好奇為什麼今天的策略是到年底實現中個位數，而不是為反彈做好準備的更大數字？

Manav, the reason that our hiring plans are based on what we think is where the market is, which we think is in a good place. That's why we're accelerating our hiring. But also, it's based on our operational capability to make sure we bring on really good people, and then we train and develop those people. And so it makes more sense for us to kind of accelerate that hiring as opposed to make a step change where I'm concerned about our operational ability to be as effective as we would be as compared to a kind of more streamline acceleration.

馬納夫，我們的招聘計劃是基於我們認為的市場所在的位置，我們認為市場處於一個好的位置。這就是我們加速招募的原因。而且，它基於我們的營運能力，以確保我們引進真正優秀的人才，然後我們培訓和發展這些人才。因此，對我們來說，加速招募比做出一步改變更有意義，因為我擔心我們的營運能力是否與更精簡的加速相比更有效。

Surinder Thind, Jefferies LLC.

Surinder Thind，傑弗里斯有限責任公司。

Gene, just following up on the last question there. As you structurally think about the sales force and the size of the sales force, just any color on the potential impact on longer-term metrics, maybe around how you're viewing productivity the number of clients that maybe each salesperson can handle. Does AI change any of that? Or do you have any data points as you think about structurally, not this year or next year, but as we maybe think a little bit longer term about the sales force?

吉恩，我正在跟進最後一個問題。當您從結構上考慮銷售人員和銷售人員的規模時，任何對長期指標的潛在影響的顏色，也許圍繞您如何看待生產力，即每個銷售人員可以處理的客戶數量。人工智慧會改變這一切嗎？或者，當您從結構上考慮時，您是否有任何數據點，不是今年或明年，而是我們可能對銷售隊伍進行更長遠的考慮？

Yes. I mentioned in my comments that we have some prototypes that we're using that are very promising. I think it's too early to say what the long-term productivity impact will be. I think it will be positive, but whether it's 2% or 5% or whatever, I couldn't really say right now. I know our associates like it and it's working really well.

是的。我在評論中提到，我們正在使用一些非常有前途的原型。我認為現在判斷對生產力的長期影響還為時過早。我認為這將是積極的，但無論是 2% 還是 5% 還是其他，我現在還不能確定。我知道我們的同事喜歡它，而且效果非常好。

We'll see over time as we realize what the real benefit is. It's not going to be like a [50]. I don't expect it's going to be like a 50% improvement in productivity or something like that. It will be modest improvements over a period of time.

隨著時間的推移，我們將會看到真正的好處是什麼。它不會像[50]那樣。我不認為生產力會提高 50% 之類的。經過一段時間後，這將是適度的改進。

Got it. And then in terms of the GBS side, I think you mentioned there are some areas where you're seeing some strength, such as finance, legal, HR, those kinds of areas. But then you also talked about maybe some more tepid demand on the sales and marketing side. Just any additional color there? Is that just kind of the maladies that we're seeing in terms of end client demand and the hiring in that area at the clients themselves? Or how should we think about the headwinds that we're seeing there in the near term?

知道了。然後就 GBS 方面而言，我認為您提到在某些領域您看到了一些優勢，例如財務、法律、人力資源等領域。但隨後您也談到了銷售和行銷方面可能存在的一些不溫不火的需求。只是有任何額外的顏色嗎？這是否就是我們在最終客戶需求和客戶本身在該領域的招募方面看到的弊病？或者我們應該如何看待短期內看到的不利因素？

So in marketing and sales, there's a couple of things (inaudible). First, there's an overweight for tech. And so while most of GBS split kind of with GDP, it turns out that in marketing sales were a little overweighted on the tech side is so they're being impacted by the tech piece in a way that the world GBS isn't.

因此，在行銷和銷售方面，有幾件事（聽不清楚）。首先，科技股的比重過高。因此，雖然大多數 GBS 與 GDP 有一定的差距，但事實證明，在行銷銷售中，科技方面的比重有點過高，因此它們受到科技部分的影響，而全球 GBS 則不然。

Second piece is there's actually -- relative to the amount of CD, there's a relatively high amount of legacy CV that I talked about earlier, where the new products are doing much -- doing quite well, but the legacy CV isn't doing as well. There's a higher proportion of legacy CV in the marketing sales piece.

第二點是，實際上- 相對於CD 的數量，我之前談到的遺留CV 的數量相對較高，新產品在其中做得很好- 做得很好，但遺留CV 的表現並不像我之前提到的那樣。行銷銷售部分中傳統履歷的比例較高。

And the last piece is that with marketing in particular, but sales to an extent, when economic times are tough, there's a lot more scrutiny on hiring in marketing and marketing spending than we are in some areas of the business. So all those things are coming together and make it more challenging in that segment.

最後一點是，特別是在行銷方面，但在某種程度上的銷售方面，當經濟困難時期，對行銷招募和行銷支出的審查比我們在某些​​業務領域要嚴格得多。因此，所有這些因素結合在一起，使該領域更具挑戰性。

It's still doing very well. So I wouldn't take away that it's shrinking or not doing well. We're actually happy with where it's going, but it does have those challenges that some of the other practices don't have as much.

它仍然表現得很好。所以我不會認為它正在萎縮或表現不佳。事實上，我們對它的進展感到滿意，但它確實面臨著其他一些實踐所沒有的挑戰。

Jeff Silber, BMO Capital Markets.

Jeff Silber，BMO 資本市場。

I wonder if we can get some comments on the renewal process in terms of pricing, what types of price increases you've been able to get through and what we should be expecting for next year as well?

我想知道我們是否可以就定價方面的續約過程獲得一些評論，你們已經能夠經歷哪些類型的價格上漲以及我們明年應該期待什麼？

Jeff, thanks for that question. From a renewal perspective and from a pricing perspective, as you know, our number one strategy there is to make sure that, at a minimum, we are offsetting our projected wage inflation with our price increases. And our -- the majority of our price action actually happens in November 1.

傑夫，謝謝你提出這個問題。從更新的角度和定價的角度來看，如您所知，我們的首要策略是確保至少透過價格上漲來抵消預期的薪資通膨。我們的大部分價格行為實際上發生在 11 月 1 日。

And again, we took up our pricing a little less than 4% this year to sort of match how we were thinking about wage inflation rolling into 2025. Generally speaking, we've ranged between 3% and 4% price increases for 15-plus years, save for a few exceptional years where there was higher wage inflation or lower, but most recently, higher weight inflation when we had to be a little bit more aggressive on pricing. But things have settled down a bit now. And so rolling into 2025, we're shade under 4% in terms of the structural price increase.

同樣，我們今年的定價略低於 4%，以符合我們對 2025 年工資通膨的看法。除了少數例外年份，薪資通膨較高或較低，但最近，權重通膨較高，我們必須在定價上採取更積極的態度。但現在事情已經穩定了一些。因此，進入 2025 年，結構性價格漲幅將低於 4%。

Okay. That's really helpful. If I could shift gears to consulting, you saw a decrease in gross margins on a year-over-year basis. Does that have anything to do with the mix shift away from the big contract optimization quarter you had last year? Or is there something else going on that we should be aware of?

好的。這真的很有幫助。如果我可以轉向諮詢，你會發現毛利率比去年同期下降。這與去年大合約優化季度的組合轉變有關係嗎？還是還有其他事情需要我們注意？

Yes. The biggest thing there is what you highlighted, Jeff. Those deals are profitable for us. And we had a huge quarter in the year ago quarter, as we talked about. We had a very strong quarter this quarter, but down. And that's the biggest driver on the consulting contribution margin.

是的。最重要的是你強調的，傑夫。這些交易對我們來說是有利可圖的。正如我們所說，去年同期我們有一個巨大的季度。本季我們的季度表現非常強勁，但有所下降。這是諮詢邊際貢獻的最大推手。

Jason Haas, Wells Fargo.

傑森‧哈斯，富國銀行。

I'm curious if you could talk about what you're expecting for non-subscription revenue this year. In the last call, you talked about $305 million. And I think there were some comments on this call that it would be similar so tha's still the expectation. And the reason I ask is because it does seem to imply pretty substantial decline in 4Q, but the compares do get a lot easier. So I'm just curious if I have that right. And then maybe how you're thinking about that non-subscription revenue going forward?

我很好奇您是否能談談您對今年非訂閱收入的預期。在上次通話中，您談到了 3.05 億美元。我認為這次電話會議有一些評論認為它會類似，所以這仍然是預期。我之所以問這個問題，是因為它似乎確實意味著第四季度的大幅下滑，但比較確實變得容易多了。所以我只是好奇我是否有這個權利。那麼您如何看待未來的非訂閱收入呢？

Jason, thank you for that question. On the non-sub side, we are still expecting about $305 million for that revenue for 2024. So unchanged from our perspective last quarter. You're right, the math does imply a pretty significant year-over-year decrease, a little bit more than what we've been seeing. But again, we delivered on roughly our expectation in the third quarter and so the full year was basically unchanged.

傑森，謝謝你提出這個問題。在非補貼方面，我們仍預期 2024 年該收入約為 3.05 億美元。你是對的，數學確實意味著同比下降相當顯著，比我們看到的要多一點。但同樣，我們在第三季大致實現了我們的預期，因此全年基本上沒有變化。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I'm not sure if you could talk about expectations if that -- if we'll continue to see declines into next year? And I also want to have a follow-up question on just the time it takes for your sales force to ramp up. So I recognize you'll be growing quarter-bearing headcount by year-end mid- to high single digits. How long does it take those folks to get ramped up to a more normal level of productivity?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我不確定你是否可以談談預期，如果我們明年會繼續看到下降嗎？我還想問一個關於您的銷售隊伍需要多長時間才能壯大的後續問題。因此，我認識到到年底，您的季度員工人數將實現中位數到高個位數的成長。這些人需要多長時間才能達到更正常的生產力水平？

Yes, sure. I'll cover the 2025 expectations will be very short. And then Gene can talk about the the sales force ramp up. So again, as is our practice, we'll provide full guidance on everything in February. And so we're not in a position where we're talking about 2025 yet. There's still a lot to go in 2024, which obviously influences how we're going to set our plans and targets for 2025, and then, Gene, on sales force ramp.

是的，當然。我將介紹 2025 年的預期將非常短暫。然後吉恩可以談論銷售隊伍的壯大。因此，按照我們的慣例，我們將在二月提供有關一切的全面指導。所以我們還沒到談論 2025 年的地步。 2024 年還有很多事情要做，這顯然會影響我們如何制定 2025 年的計劃和目標，然後吉恩，銷售人員的成長。

Yes. In terms of sales force productivity ramp, it takes three years for a salesperson to get from -- to full productivity. So the people we're hiring now will get to full productivity three years from now. So this is an investment not just for 2025, but for '26 and '27 as well. And we've seen that pretty consistently over time.

是的。就銷售人員生產力提升而言，銷售人員需要三年才能達到完全生產力。因此，我們現在僱用的人員將在三年後充分發揮生產力。因此，這不僅是 2025 年的投資，也是 26 年和 27 年的投資。隨著時間的推移，我們一直看到這一點。

We're very focused on moving that productivity earlier so that it doesn't take three years or at least we get more of that productivity early on. And so a bunch of things I talked about like the apprenticeship program, the training, et cetera, the tools that we're giving our -- equipping our sales force with are designed to get our new salespeople up that brand faster. But currently takes about three years digital productivity.

我們非常注重更早地提高生產力，這樣就不需要三年的時間，或至少我們可以儘早獲得更多的生產力。因此，我談到了很多事情，例如學徒計劃、培訓等等，我們為我們的銷售人員提供的工具旨在讓我們的新銷售人員更快地提升該品牌。但目前數位生產力大約需要三年時間。

Thank you. And I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Gene Hall for closing remarks.

謝謝。目前我沒有提出任何進一步的問題。我想將電話轉回給吉恩·霍爾，讓其結束語。

So here's what I'd like you take away from today's call. Gartner delivered financial results ahead of expectations. We delivered 9% contract value growth of enterprise function leaders. Tech vendor seating growth has turned the corner and continues to accelerate. We have a vast addressable market opportunity with a strong and compelling client value proposition.

以下是我希望您從今天的電話會議中得到的資訊。 Gartner 公佈的財務表現超乎預期。我們實現了企業職能領導者合約價值成長 9%。技術供應商的席次成長已經扭轉並持續加速。我們擁有廣闊的潛在市場機會和強大且引人注目的客戶價值主張。

Looking ahead, we're well positioned to drive sustained double-digit revenue growth over the long term. We'll continue to create value for our shareholders by providing actual objective impacts for our clients, prudently invested for future growth, gunning free cash flow well in excess of net income and returning capital to our shareholders through our share repurchase program. Thanks for joining us today, and we look forward to updating you again next quarter.

展望未來，我們有能力推動長期持續兩位數的營收成長。我們將繼續為我們的股東創造價值，為我們的客戶提供實際的客觀影響，為未來的成長進行審慎投資，使自由現金流遠遠超過淨利潤，並透過我們的股票回購計劃將資本返還給我們的股東。感謝您今天加入我們，我們期待下個季度再次為您提供最新消息。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。