Invitation Homes Inc (INVH) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Invitation Homes third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加 Invitation Homes 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Scott McLaughlin, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

此時，我謹將會議交給投資人關係資深副總裁麥克勞克林。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning. Joining me today from Invitation Homes are Dallas Tanner, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Tim Lobner, our Chief Operating Officer; Jon Olsen, our Chief Financial Officer; and Scott Eisen, our Chief Investment Officer.

謝謝接線員，早安。今天與我一同出席的還有來自 Invitation Homes 的總裁兼執行長 Dallas Tanner；營運長 Tim Lobner；財務長 Jon Olsen；以及首席投資長 Scott Eisen。

Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the line for questions from our covering sell-side analysts. During today's call, we may reference our third-quarter 2025 earnings release and supplemental information. We issued this document yesterday afternoon after the market closed, and it is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.invh.com.

在我們發表完準備好的演講後，我們將開放線路，接受我們報道此市場的賣方分析師的提問。在今天的電話會議中，我們可能會提及我們 2025 年第三季的收益報告和補充資訊。我們在昨天下午市場收盤後發布了這份文件，該文件可在我們網站 www.invh.com 的投資者關係部分查閱。

Certain statements we make during our call may include forward-looking statements relating to the future performance of our business, financial results, liquidity and capital resources, and other nonhistorical statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated.

我們在電話會議中所做的某些陳述可能包括與我們業務的未來表現、財務表現、流動性和資本資源相關的前瞻性陳述，以及其他非歷史性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與所指明的結果有重大差異。

We describe some of these risks and uncertainties in our 2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K and other filings we make with the SEC from time to time. Except to the extent otherwise required by law, we do not update forward-looking statements and expressly disclaim any obligation to do so. We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures during the call. You can find additional information regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures in yesterday's earnings release.

我們在 2024 年 10-K 表格年度報告以及我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中描述了其中一些風險和不確定性。除法律另有規定外，我們不更新前瞻性陳述，並明確聲明不承擔任何更新義務。我們也可能在電話會議中討論某些非GAAP財務指標。您可以在昨天的收益報告中找到有關這些非GAAP指標的更多信息，包括與最可比較GAAP指標的調節表。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dallas Tanner. Go ahead, Dallas.

接下來，我將把電話交給達拉斯·坦納。達拉斯，加油！

Thank you, Scott, and good morning, everyone. I'll start by recognizing our exceptional teams across the country. Their dedication to our residents and to operational excellence continues to drive performance and reinforces our leadership in single-family rental housing.

謝謝你，斯科特，大家早安。首先，我要稱讚我們遍佈全國的優秀團隊。他們對居民的奉獻精神和對卓越營運的追求不斷推動業績成長，並鞏固了我們在單戶住宅租賃領域的領先地位。

Stepping back, our business is built on a simple but powerful value proposition: choice, flexibility, and high-quality single-family living without the long-term financial and maintenance commitment of homeownership. That value proposition is resonating broadly from families seeking space and schools to professionals who value mobility.

從本質上講，我們的業務建立在一個簡單而強大的價值主張之上：提供選擇、靈活性和高品質的獨棟住宅生活，而無需承擔房屋所有權的長期財務和維護責任。從尋求空間和學校的家庭到重視出行便利的專業人士，這項價值主張引起了廣泛的共鳴。

Today's housing dynamics continue to support steady demand for SFR. Even as mortgage rates move around, overall affordability remains stretched and transaction activity has been muted, partly because 70% of homeowners are still locked in at mortgage rates below 5%. For many households, the all-in monthly cost of owning a home, including mortgage, tax, insurance and maintenance remain more expensive than leasing a comparable home.

目前的房屋市場動態繼續支撐著對獨棟住宅的穩定需求。即使抵押貸款利率有所波動，整體購屋能力仍然緊張，交易活動也較為低迷，部分原因是 70% 的房主仍然鎖定在 5% 以下的抵押貸款利率。對於許多家庭來說，擁有房屋的每月總成本（包括抵押貸款、稅收、保險和維護）仍然比租賃同等條件的房屋更貴。

Based on the latest John Burns data weighted to our markets, those who choose to lease, save an average of almost $900 per month compared to owning. Against that backdrop, our third-quarter results reflect the strength and the resilience of our platform.

根據約翰伯恩斯最新的市場加權數據，選擇租賃的人與擁有車輛相比，平均每月可節省近 900 美元。在此背景下，我們第三季的業績反映了我們平台的實力和韌性。

Demand remains consistent. And while new lease growth continues to be an opportunity, our renewal performance is outstanding. During the third quarter, we delivered same-store renewal rate growth of 4.5% or 30 basis points higher than our third-quarter result last year. At the same time, our average resident tenure further increased to 41 months, among the best in the industry.

需求保持穩定。雖然新租約的成長仍然是一個機遇，但我們的續約業績非常出色。第三季度，我們的同店續租率成長了4.5%，比去年同期高出30個基點。同時，我們的平均住戶租期進一步延長至41個月，位居業界前列。

These outcomes speak to the stability, quality and location of our portfolio, the professional service we provide and the value our customers place on staying with Invitation Homes. That stability gives us the confidence and flexibility to invest for the future, and it underpins our disciplined approach to growth.

這些結果體現了我們房產組合的穩定性、品質和地理位置，我們提供的專業服務，以及客戶對入住 Invitation Homes 的重視。這種穩定性使我們有信心和靈活性進行未來投資，也支撐了我們嚴謹的成長方式。

Today, we're pursuing channel-agnostic, location-specific growth focused on long-term total returns, primarily through the following four channels: first, our homebuilder partnerships that cultivate reliable and predictable forward purchases of full and partial new communities. Second, homebuilder month-end inventory or a list of homes shared by regional and national builders that we've carefully screened to identify those that meet our location and pricing criteria.

如今，我們追求的是不拘泥於特定管道、著眼於特定地域的成長，專注於長期總回報，主要透過以下四個管道實現：首先，我們與房屋建築商建立合作夥伴關係，以建立可靠且可預測的全新社區（包括整棟和部分住宅）的預購管道。其次，我們利用房屋建築商的月末庫存或區域及全國性建築商提供的房源清單，並經過嚴格篩選，確保這些房源符合我們的地域和價格標準。

Third, our construction lending program, which is gaining traction as a strategic way for us to deepen our relationships with smaller developers and facilitate delivery of much needed new housing supply. And fourth, our third-party management business, which represents a capital-light way to leverage our platform and grow our scale and earnings.

第三，我們的建築貸款專案正日益受到重視，它已成為我們深化與小型開發商關係、促進急需新房屋供應的重要策略途徑。第四，我們的第三方管理業務，它以輕資本的方式利用我們的平台，擴大規模，提升收益。

In the meantime, our capital allocation framework remains unchanged to fund organic growth, invest where long-term total returns are most compelling, and maintain a strong balance sheet, so we're able to capitalize on opportunities when they arise. Naturally, we'll weigh the relative attractiveness of external growth, internal investment, and now share repurchases with a clear focus on long-term value creation.

同時，我們的資本配置框架保持不變，以資助內生成長，投資於長期總回報最有吸引力的項目，並保持強勁的資產負債表，以便我們能夠在機會出現時抓住它們。當然，我們會權衡外部成長、內部投資以及股票回購的相對吸引力，並明確關注長期價值創造。

In summary, we remain confident in the durability of demand for well-located single-family rentals in our ability to operate efficiently at scale and in our capacity to grow prudently. Our markets continue to benefit from strong long-term fundamentals supported by healthy demographics and sustained desirability. Even if lower mortgage rates become more prevalent, we believe that will be a strong positive for our business as greater liquidity and transaction volumes should benefit the housing market broadly, and we're well positioned to perform and capture opportunity across these cycles.

總而言之，我們對地理位置優越的獨棟住宅租賃需求的持久性、我們高效大規模運營的能力以及我們審慎增長的能力仍然充滿信心。我們的市場持續受益於強勁的長期基本面，這得益於健康的人口結構和持續的市場吸引力。即使較低的抵押貸款利率變得更加普遍，我們相信這將對我們的業務產生積極影響，因為更大的流動性和交易量應該會惠及整個房地產市場，而我們已經做好充分準備，能夠在這些週期中取得良好業績並抓住機遇。

Before I hand it over to Tim, one last note. We'll be hosting our Investor Day and Analyst Day on November 17. This event will provide a deeper look into our strategy, growth initiatives, and our long-term outlook. Look for the live stream webcast details to be shared on our website about a week or so prior to the event.

在把它交給蒂姆之前，還有最後一點要補充。我們將於11月17日舉辦投資者日和分析師日活動。本次活動將深入探討我們的策略、成長舉措和長期展望。活動開始前一周左右，我們將在網站上公佈直播詳情，敬請關注。

With that, I'll pass the call over to Tim Lobner, our Chief Operating Officer.

接下來，我將把電話轉交給我們的營運長蒂姆·洛布納。

Thank you, Dallas, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to walk through our third-quarter operating results, including our same-store renewal and leasing performance as well as our controllable expense management.

謝謝你，達拉斯，大家早安。我很高興向大家介紹我們第三季的經營業績，包括同店續租和租賃業績以及可控費用管理情況。

But before I do that, I want to recognize the strength of our portfolio, the exceptional execution of our associates across every market we serve, and most importantly, the trust and loyalty of our residents. Their confidence in Invitation Homes is what allows us to deliver on our mission every day. Together, these relationships and efforts form the foundation of our success.

但在此之前，我想肯定我們強大的投資組合，我們服務的每個市場的員工的出色執行力，以及最重要的是，我們居民的信任和忠誠。他們對 Invitation Homes 的信任使我們能夠每天完成我們的使命。這些關係和努力共同構成了我們成功的基礎。

Since this is my first earnings call speaking with you directly, I'd also like to share a few thoughts on the road ahead. The current landscape brings both opportunities and challenges, which I see as a proving ground for our team and the vision I have for leading it. That vision is rooted in relentless execution, operational excellence, and a customer-centric mindset. We will pursue every opportunity, engage every prospect, and deliver service that sets the standard in our industry. Through disciplined oversight, accountability and a culture of hard work, we'll continue to drive strong results, and I look forward to sharing more on that at our Investor Day on November 17.

由於這是我第一次直接與大家進行財報電話會議，我也想分享一些對未來發展方向的想法。當前的情況既帶來了機會也帶來了挑戰，我認為這是對我們團隊以及我領導團隊願景的考驗。這個願景植根於不懈的執行、卓越的營運和以客戶為中心的理念。我們將抓住每一個機會，接觸每個潛在客戶，並提供在業界樹立標竿的服務。透過嚴格的監督、問責制和努力工作的文化，我們將繼續取得強勁的業績，我期待在 11 月 17 日的投資者日上與大家分享更多相關資訊。

The commitment I just mentioned is already beginning to show in our performance. In a dynamic operating environment, our teams continue to deliver solid same-store results. This included third-quarter average occupancy of 96.5%, consistent with our expectations.

我剛才提到的這種投入已經開始在我們的表現中體現出來了。在瞬息萬變的經營環境下，我們的團隊持續取得穩健的同店銷售表現。其中包括第三季平均入住率達 96.5%，與我們的預期一致。

In addition, our renewal business, which accounts for over 75% of our book, continue to be a reliable source of strength, demonstrating both the durability of our model and the value residents place on the product and service we provide. We achieved renewal rent growth of 4.5% in the third quarter, underscoring our pricing power with existing residents and reinforcing the quality and appeal of our homes.

此外，我們的續租業務占我們業務總量的 75% 以上，一直是可靠的實力來源，這不僅體現了我們模式的持久性，也體現了居民對我們提供的產品和服務的重視。第三季度，我們的續租租金成長了 4.5%，這凸顯了我們對現有住戶的定價能力，並強化了我們房屋的品質和吸引力。

Shifting to the new lease side of our business. As expected, third-quarter new lease rent growth was slightly negative, driven by elevated supply in select markets that is amplifying typical seasonal patterns. Taken together, blended rent growth for the quarter was 3%.

業務重心轉向新租賃領域。正如預期的那樣，第三季新租約租金成長略微為負，這是由於部分市場供應量增加，加劇了典型的季節性模式。本季綜合租金成長率為 3%。

Looking more broadly at the components of same-store core revenue growth, we saw solid contributions across key areas. Other property income grew 7.7%, driven by continued adoption of value-add services that our residents desire, such as our Internet bundle, our Smart Home features and other resident offerings.

從更廣泛的角度來看同店核心營收成長的組成部分，我們看到各個關鍵領域都做出了穩健的貢獻。其他物業收入增加了 7.7%，這得益於居民們持續接受他們想要的增值服務，例如我們的網路套餐、智慧家庭功能和其他居民服務。

In addition, bad debt improved by 20 basis points year over year, reflecting the quality of our resident base and the sustained rigor of our screening and collection processes. Together, these factors contributed to core revenue growth of 2.3% for the quarter.

此外，壞帳率比去年同期下降了 20 個基點，這反映了我們居民基礎的品質以及我們篩選和催收流程的持續嚴格性。這些因素共同促成了本季核心營收成長2.3%。

On the expense side, our teams continue to manage cost effectively, while maintaining high service standards. Same-store core expenses increased 4.9% year over year, with fixed expense growth showing some welcome moderation this year compared to recent years. The overall result was same-store NOI growth of 1.1% for the third quarter, which is typically our most modest growth period due to elevated seasonal turnover and other transitory factors.

在費用方面，我們的團隊繼續有效控製成本，同時保持高標準的服務。同店核心支出年增 4.9%，與往年相比，今年的固定支出成長出現了令人欣喜的放緩。第三季同店淨營業收入整體成長1.1%，由於季節性週轉率高和其他暫時性因素，這通常是我們成長最溫和的時期。

Turning to October. Our preliminary same-store results were generally in line with expectations. New lease rates were down 2.9% year over year, reflecting the impact of targeted specials we ran to drive traffic and strengthen occupancy, which averaged approximately 96% in October.

十月將至。我們初步的同店銷售業績大致上符合預期。新租約價格年減 2.9%，反映了我們為吸引客流和提高入住率而開展的有針對性的特價活動的影響，10 月份的平均入住率約為 96%。

Importantly, October renewal spreads remained strong at 4.3%, supporting blended rent growth of 2.3% for the month. That represents a notable acceleration in blended lease spreads of 20 basis points compared to this time last year.

值得注意的是，10 月續租價差依然強勁，達到 4.3%，支撐了當月 2.3% 的綜合租金成長。與去年同期相比，這意味著混合租賃利差顯著加快了 20 個基點。

To close, I want to once again thank our associates for their continued focus and commitment. Their efforts have helped to enable our growth while ensuring that our residents feel safe, supported, and at home. We have the right team in place to finish the year strong and continue executing on our strategic priorities.

最後，我要再次感謝各位同事的持續專注與奉獻。他們的努力幫助我們實現了發展，同時確保了我們的居民感到安全、受到支持，並有家的感覺。我們擁有合適的團隊，能夠以強勁的勢頭結束今年，並繼續執行我們的戰略重點。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jon Olsen, our Chief Financial Officer.

接下來，我將把電話交給我們的財務長喬恩·奧爾森。

Thanks, Tim. Today, I'll provide an update on our strong balance sheet position, recent capital markets activities and third-quarter financial performance. I'll then wrap up with an update on our full-year guidance revisions outlined in yesterday's earnings release. We ended the quarter with total available liquidity of $1.9 billion, which combines unrestricted cash on hand with the undrawn capacity on our revolving credit facility.

謝謝你，提姆。今天，我將向大家報告我們強勁的資產負債表狀況、近期資本市場活動以及第三季財務業績。最後，我將更新我們在昨天發布的財報中概述的全年業績預期調整情況。本季末，我們擁有19億美元的可用流動資金，其中包括未受限的現金以及循環信貸額度中尚未提取的資金。

This substantial liquidity position provides us with the financial capacity and flexibility to pursue growth opportunities, manage operations, and navigate market volatility with confidence. In addition, our debt structure continues to reflect the high-quality investment-grade profile we've worked diligently to build.

充裕的流動資金使我們擁有足夠的財務能力和靈活性，可以自信地抓住成長機會、管理營運並應對市場波動。此外，我們的債務結構繼續體現了我們努力打造的高品質投資等級信用評級。

As we've discussed in the past, over 83% of our debt is unsecured, over 95% of our debt is either fixed rate or swapped to fixed rate, and approximately 90% of our wholly owned homes are unencumbered. We have a well-laddered maturity profile with no debt reaching final maturity prior to 2027, and our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 5.2 times at quarter end. Combined, these attributes provide meaningful cushion for both operational flexibility and future growth investments.

正如我們過去討論過的，我們超過 83% 的債務是無擔保的，超過 95% 的債務是固定利率或已轉換為固定利率，我們約 90% 的完全擁有的房屋沒有抵押。我們的債務到期結構合理，在 2027 年之前沒有任何債務到期，季度末我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 5.2 倍。綜合來看，這些特性為營運靈活性和未來的成長投資提供了重要的緩衝空間。

A highlight of our third-quarter capital markets activity was the successful completion of a $600 million bond offering in August. The unsecured notes mature in January 2033 and have a coupon of 4.95%, which represents an attractive long-term cost of funds. The deal also extends our maturity profile and frees up capacity on our revolving credit facility.

第三季資本市場活動的一大亮點是8月成功完成了6億美元的債券發行。這些無擔保債券將於 2033 年 1 月到期，票面利率為 4.95%，代表著極具吸引力的長期資金成本。該交易還延長了我們的債務到期期限，並釋放了我們循環信貸額度的可用資金。

The offering received a strong reception from investors, reflecting the market's confidence in our credit quality and business fundamentals. Also included in yesterday's earnings release was our announcement that our Board of Directors has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $500 million. We view this as a tool that is part of our disciplined capital allocation plan and an ordinary course approach to enhancing shareholder value.

此次發行受到了投資者的熱烈歡迎，反映出市場對我們信用品質和業務基本面的信心。昨天發布的收益報告中還包括我們宣布董事會已批准一項高達 5 億美元的股票回購計畫。我們認為這是我們嚴謹的資本配置計畫的一部分，也是提升股東價值的常規方法。

Turning now to our third-quarter financial results. For the third quarter of 2025, we delivered core FFO per share of $0.47 and AFFO per share of $0.38. Tim already covered our third-quarter same-store results, but I want to provide a bit more detail on two items.

現在來看看我們第三季的財務業績。2025年第三季度，我們的核心FFO每股收益為0.47美元，AFFO每股收益為0.38美元。 Tim已經介紹了我們第三季的同店業績，但我還想就兩點提供更多細節。

First, property taxes were up 6.3% year over year in the quarter, largely due to the benefit we realized this time last year from favorable developments in Florida and Georgia. This year, bills from those two states, which together represent more than half of our property tax expense, have so far come in slightly better than expected.

首先，本季房產稅年增 6.3%，這主要是由於去年同期佛羅裡達州和喬治亞州的有利發展為我們帶來了收益。今年，這兩個州的稅單（加起來占我們房產稅支出的一半以上）到目前為止都比預期略好。

Second, we received a favorable premium adjustment related to what is effectively a rebate structure built into our insurance program. This contributed to a 21.1% decrease in insurance expense year over year. As a result of our year-to-date performance, we are raising our full-year 2025 guidance. We have increased the midpoints for core FFO and AFFO by $0.01 each to $1.92 per share and $1.62 per share, respectively.

其次，我們獲得了有利的保費調整，這實際上是我們保險計劃中內建的返利機制。這使得保險支出較去年同期下降了 21.1%。鑑於我們今年迄今的業績表現，我們上調了 2025 年全年業績預期。我們將核心 FFO 和 AFFO 的中點分別提高了 0.01 美元，至每股 1.92 美元和每股 1.62 美元。

Additionally, we have raised our same-store NOI growth expectations by 25 basis points at the midpoint, now 2.25%. This was comprised of narrowed core revenue growth guidance in the range of 2% to 3% and improved core expense growth guidance in the range of 2% to 3.5%. Further details of our revised guidance are included in yesterday's earnings release.

此外，我們將同店淨營業收入成長預期中位數上調了 25 個基點，目前為 2.25%。這包括將核心收入成長預期範圍縮小至 2% 至 3%，並將核心支出成長預期範圍提高至 2% 至 3.5%。有關我們修訂後的業績指引的更多詳情，請參閱昨天發布的盈利報告。

As we near the end of the year, I want to acknowledge the great progress we've made in the first 10 months. These achievements are a testament to the hard work and discipline of our associates, and I'm thankful for what we've accomplished in a dynamic operating environment. That said, we know we need to remain focused and agile as we approach the remainder of the year, and I have every confidence we'll deliver on that front.

值此年末之際，我想肯定一下我們在過去十個月裡的巨大進步。這些成就證明了我們同事們的辛勤工作和嚴謹作風，我感謝我們在充滿活力的營運環境中所取得的成就。話雖如此，我們也知道在今年餘下的時間內，我們需要保持專注和靈活，我完全有信心我們能夠在這方面取得成功。

This concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

我們的發言稿到此結束。接線員，請開通提問線。

(Operator Instructions) Jana Galan, Bank of America.

（操作員說明） Jana Galan，美國銀行。

Congrats on a great quarter. I was wondering if you could spend a little time talking about your supply outlook for 2026 with both kind of the BTR deliveries that are expected to deliver next year relative to this year? And then also how you kind of think about that more shadow supply of whether it's an owner-occupied household or becomes a renter household.

恭喜你本季表現出色。我想請您花一點時間談談您對 2026 年的供應前景，包括預計明年交付的 BTR 車輛數量與今年交付數量之間的關係？然後，你還要考慮一下這種更隱密的供應情況，即房屋是自住的還是變成了租房的。

Thanks, Jana, for the question. This is Dallas. It's been interesting. As we sort of looked at the supply backdrop, it sort of fits into a few categories, right? First is, and we called this out sort of last fall in our third-quarter call, this BTR delivery that we were starting to see show up in our markets create a little bit of noise on the supply side.

謝謝 Jana 的提問。這裡是達拉斯。挺有意思的。當我們審視供應背景時，它大致可以歸為以下幾類，對吧？首先，正如我們在去年秋季的第三季電話會議上提到的，我們開始在市場上看到的BTR交付給供應方造成了一些波動。

The second piece of it is also -- and it's a fairly small percentage, but some of the for-sale product that maybe isn't moving in the market that may convert to single-family rental from a listing perspective. And then lastly, as we kind of follow and cover some of the professional operators, it's the amount of supply and scale that we see even in those books of businesses that compete in some of our similar markets.

第二部分也是──雖然比例很小──一些在市場上可能賣不出去的待售產品，從掛牌角度來看，可能會變成獨棟住宅出租房。最後，當我們追蹤報導一些專業業者時，我們發現，即使在一些與我們類似市場競爭的企業中，供應量和規模也相當可觀。

Generally speaking, it's nuanced by market. What we've seen so far is that through the most of this year, it's gone pretty much as we expected and what we laid out at the beginning part of the year. We expected new lease to sort of tick up and get a bit better as we kind of went through peak leasing season and into the summer. But we expected that towards the end of summer, things would likely be a little softer just given the lack of homeowner velocity buying and selling and also just some of that shadow supply that we had called out last year.

總的來說，這取決於市場情況。到目前為止，我們看到的情況是，今年大部分時間裡，事情的發展基本上都符合我們的預期，也符合我們年初制定的計畫。我們預計，隨著租賃旺季的到來和夏季的到來，新租約數量會略有上升，情況會有所改善。但我們預計，到了夏末，由於房主買賣速度放緩，以及去年提到的部分影子供應不足，市場可能會稍微疲軟一些。

The good news is there are certainly markets like Florida and Atlanta, where we're seeing some of that supply and delivery schedule now kind of get over the hump and come into our favor. The unknowns are still what's going to happen sort of in the one-off kind of single-family rental market.

好消息是，像佛羅裡達州和亞特蘭大這樣的市場，我們看到一些供應和交付計劃現在已經克服了困難，並對我們有利。未知數仍然在於，像獨棟住宅租賃市場這種一次性的市場將會如何發展。

And so we'll continue to monitor supply as it comes through. We're actually pretty encouraged by some of the signs we've seen both in the starts that we're hearing from some of the builder partners and things like that. But ultimately, we've probably got a couple more quarters of supply, specifically in some of these Sunbelt markets where there will be a bit more supply as we've called out for the last couple of quarters.

因此，我們將繼續密切關注供應情況。事實上，我們從一些建築合作夥伴那裡了解到的開工情況等跡象讓我們相當鼓舞。但最終，我們可能還有幾季的供應，尤其是在一些陽光地帶市場，正如我們在過去幾季預測的那樣，這些市場的供應量會略有增加。

Eric Wolfe, Citi Group.

埃里克·沃爾夫，花旗集團。

I think you said in your remarks that October was like 96% occupancy, which I think is kind of like down sort of 50 basis points from the third quarter. And then you gave the new lease down, I think, 2.9% and renewals 4.3%. I guess what I'm sort of putting that all together, I guess it's a little bit tough for me to get to that sort of fourth-quarter number that you need to hit guidance.

我認為您在演講中提到，10 月的入住率約為 96%，這比第三季下降了大約 50 個基點。然後，你把新租約的租金降低了 2.9%，續租租金降低了 4.3%。我想，綜合所有因素來看，要達到第四季業績預期目標，對我來說有點困難。

And so I didn't know if there's something in the fourth quarter like lower bad debt or improving fees or something that gets you to that sort of positive sequential growth to hit the midpoint. And apologies if I'm just missing something on those numbers. Those are just what I've heard from the remarks.

所以我不知道第四季是否有諸如壞帳減少、費用提高或其他因素，能夠帶來那種正的環比增長，從而達到中點目標。如果我遺漏了某些數字，請見諒。這些只是我從評論中聽到的內容。

This is Tim. Thanks for the question. Look, the occupancy dip that you referenced down in the 96.5% range, that was expected. If you recall, going back to the beginning of the year, we talked about that we'd be taking a more measured approach. We anticipated that occupancy would come in a bit as the year progressed, get to a healthy level in the mid-96% range, which it has.

這是蒂姆。謝謝你的提問。你看，你提到的入住率下降到 96.5% 左右，這是意料之中的。如果你還記得的話，在年初的時候，我們討論過我們將採取更加穩健的方式。我們預計隨著時間的推移，入住率會逐漸上升，達到 96% 左右的健康水平，而事實也的確如此。

We also anticipated that the new supply would create some pressure on new lease growth, which it also has. The good news is, as you look at the fourth quarter, our renewal book of business, which accounts for about 75% of the book, is super healthy. Our Q3 renewal rates grew to 4.5% year over year, about 30 basis points higher than the same period in 2024.

我們也預期新增供應將對新租賃成長造成一定壓力，而實際情況也確實如此。好消息是，從第四季來看，我們的續保業務（約佔總業務量的 75%）非常健康。第三季續約率年增 4.5%，比 2024 年同期高出約 30 個基點。

October, as you pointed out, renewal rate was 4.3%. That's an important part of the Invitation Homes story. Our customer is very healthy from a financial standpoint, pleased with the Invitation Homes leasing experience.

正如你所指出的，10 月的續約率為 4.3%。這是 Invitation Homes 故事的重要組成部分。我們的客戶財務狀況非常健康，對 Invitation Homes 的租賃體驗感到滿意。

They're staying for 41 months. I think that's the most important thing to point out as we head into Q4. Remember, Q4, you don't see a lot of people leaving. Turnover tends to be low. And so we feel like we're in a really healthy spot, and the year is progressing as expected.

他們將停留41個月。我認為這是我們進入第四季時最需要指出的一點。記住，在第四季度，你不會看到很多人離開。人員流動率往往較低。因此，我們感覺目前處境非常健康，而且今年的發展也符合預期。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

This is Ami on with Michael. I was wondering, do tenants tend to look to negotiate more on renewals and assets in BTR communities where they can see competitive pricing on units and really have a market comparison?

這是Ami和Michael的連線。我想知道，在租屋社區中，如果租戶可以看到其他單位的競爭價格，並能進行真正的市場比較，他們是否更傾向於在續租和資產方面進行談判？

Look, I think -- this is Tim. Thanks for the question. Look, the consumer does negotiate on renewal. They do see the open market. And we do negotiate as needed to maintain the occupancy targets that we're looking for. So yes, we don't see a difference between build-to-rent and our same-store scattered site portfolio. Consumers tend to behave similarly across asset types within the portfolio.

你看，我想──這是提姆。謝謝你的提問。你看，消費者在續約時確實可以進行談判。他們確實看到了開放市場。我們會根據需求進行談判，以維持我們所追求的入住率目標。所以，是的，我們認為「建造出租」模式和我們分散在同一地點的同類型店鋪組合之間沒有區別。消費者在投資組合中不同資產類型的投資行為往往相似。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore.

Steve Sakwa，Evercore。

Dallas, there's been a lot of rhetoric out of Washington between the Trump administration, Bill Pulte, just about trying to bring down house prices and make things more affordable. I'm just curious, what are you hearing in your discussions with the homebuilders? How do you think this might impact your business, either good or bad? Thank you.

達拉斯，華盛頓方面，川普政府和比爾普特之間有很多言論，都是為了降低房價，讓住房更實惠。我只是好奇，你在與房屋建築商的討論中都聽到了什麼？您認為這會對您的業務產生怎樣的影響，是好是壞？謝謝。

Interesting question, Steve, and it's one that we've had in kind of a couple of different ways. Let me just take a step back. Speaking broadly to the homebuilders, and we've obviously paid attention to some of their calls over the last week or two, they're certainly seeing a little bit of softening demand, it sounds like.

史蒂夫，這個問題很有意思，我們也曾經以幾種不同的方式思考過這個問題。讓我先退後一步。總的來說，就房屋建築商而言，我們顯然在過去一兩週也關注了他們的一些電話，聽起來他們確實感受到了需求略有疲軟。

Now it sounds like they're managing inventory a little bit better as well. Yet some of these guys have done a really nice job of leaning out and trying to put more production into the market in 2025 specifically. And they've talked about that as they put that production out, they've actually had a lower pricing because the bid-ask spread had been a little wide.

現在看來，他們的庫存管理也稍微好了一些。然而，其中一些公司在精簡產能方面做得非常出色，並試圖在2025年向市場推出更多產品。他們也談到，隨著產品的投放，由於買賣價差較大，他們的定價實際上有所降低。

In our one-on-ones, which I always want to protect and be careful about talking about what anybody says, it feels like they're hearing the message that from a federal perspective, they'd like to see a bit more production. I think that being said, if we're being fair, there's plenty of supply in the marketplace right now. I think for-sale listings are up over a million units this year. The challenge is on an annualized basis, we're only seeing something like 4 million to 4.5 million sales nationally. And that just doesn't work.

在我們一對一的談話中（我一直很注重保護談話內容，也謹慎地談論任何人的發言），感覺他們傳達的信息是，從聯邦政府的角度來看，他們希望看到產量有所提高。我認為，公平地說，目前市場上的供應已經很充足了。我認為今年待售房屋數量增加了一百萬多套。挑戰在於，以年計算，全國銷售額只有約 400 萬到 450 萬美元。但這根本行不通。

Like we need to get back to a place where we're seeing 5 million to 5.5 million sales a year in this country. And I think a lot of that has to do more with the liquidity around mortgage and mortgage rate. There's still something like 70% of mortgage holders in the US are at 5% or better. 80% are at 6% or better.

我們需要回到過去那種每年在這個國家達到 500 萬到 550 萬美元銷售額的水平。我認為這很大程度上與抵押貸款的流動性和抵押貸款利率有關。美國仍有約70%的房貸持有者利率在5%或更低，80%的房貸持有者利率在6%或更低。

So that spread back to our earlier comments around the total cost to own versus the total cost to lease is still really wide. I think that's why we're seeing the pickup in our renewals business is one example of why in a year where maybe there is actually more product on the market, we're actually renewing at a higher rental rate than we were at the same time last year.

所以，這與我們之前討論的擁有總成本與租賃總成本之間的差距仍然非常大。我認為這就是為什麼我們的續租業務有所增長的原因之一，這說明在市場上產品可能更多的情況下，我們的續租價格實際上比去年同期更高。

And I think it's indicative of the fact that if you have location already solved, you're not looking to absorb future costs right now. And so I think I would expect that the builders are probably weighing that out as well. And we've certainly seen that, and Scott can talk more about this later in some of the opportunities we've seen over the last couple of quarters. There's been some really good opportunities on newer product because inventory is sitting.

我認為這表明，如果你已經解決了選址問題，你現在就不想承擔未來的成本。所以我認為，建築商可能也在權衡這一點。我們當然已經看到了這一點，斯科特稍後可以就過去幾季我們看到的一些機會再多談談這方面。由於庫存積壓，新產品方面出現了一些非常好的機會。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho.

Haendel St. Juste，瑞穗。

Dallas, I wanted to ask a question on capital allocation. I guess, first, maybe can you talk about the increase in the acquisition guide? I'm assuming that's coming from your builder relationships and some of the dynamics you're talking about earlier. But I'm also curious on the yields you're seeing there and how that compares to stock buybacks. I think a lot of us were hoping or maybe expecting to see you act on buying back the stock a bit sooner. Thanks.

達拉斯，我想問一個關於資本配置的問題。我想，首先，您能否談談收購指南的增加？我猜想這源自於你與建築商的關係以及你之前提到的一些動態因素。但我同時也對你們那裡的收益率感到好奇，以及它與股票回購相比如何。我想我們很多人都希望或期待您能早點採取行動回購股票。謝謝。

Thanks, Haendel, for the question. First and foremost, on our capital allocation through, call it, the first half of this year, we've had many things in flight from a delivery perspective that were part of our BTR programming that are just ordinary course and they're kind of built into our thinking. There's been a little bit of more opportunistic buying. Scott can give some color on this when I finish here around things that we've seen in the last 1.5 quarters or so in some of these end of month, end of quarter, end-of-cycle opportunities with some of our both regional and national builders.

謝謝亨德爾的提問。首先，就我們今年上半年的資本配置而言，從交付角度來看，我們有許多專案正在進行中，這些都是我們BTR計畫的一部分，屬於常規流程，也已經融入我們的規劃中。此外，我們也進行了一些機會性收購。等我講完之後，Scott 可以就此做一些補充說明，談談我們在過去一個半季度左右的時間裡，在一些月末、季度末、週期末，與一些區域性和全國性建築商合作的機會。

In terms of stock buyback, look, this is something we started to think about this summer going into our fall Board meeting, and it was one of the items that we put together to talk about with our Board that we wanted to be in a position that if the volatility was going to exist in the stock price that if or when appropriate and on a measured kind of basis, as we think about how to use our capital, capital allocation, disposition proceeds, we certainly want to have this be one of the tools in our tool belt if stock price is going to kind of stay in these ranges for some period of time.

關於股票回購，你看，這是我們今年夏天在秋季董事會會議前開始考慮的事情之一。這是我們準備與董事會討論的議題之一。我們希望，如果股價波動持續存在，那麼在適當的時候，在考慮如何使用資本、資本配置、處置收益時，我們當然希望將股票回購作為我們工具箱中的一項工具，以應對股價在一段時間內維持在這些區間的情況。

So we'll obviously look for opportunities to use it. We just hadn't had the plan in place. We never set one up. So we're in a good spot now. We feel like it's an added tool to the tool belt, and we'll use it appropriately and in discussion with our Board. Scott, anything to add on deliveries?

所以，我們當然會尋找機會來使用它。我們之前根本沒有擬定計畫。我們從未設立過。所以我們現在處境不錯。我們認為這就像工具箱裡又多了一件工具，我們會酌情使用，並與董事會討論後再做決定。斯科特，關於交付方面還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I think the only other thing I would address, Haendel, is that when you look at our acquisitions for the quarter, probably about 70% of it was, as Dallas said, forward purchase deliveries where we're sort of on the back half of community deliveries that we started in last year, and we're getting towards the tail end of that. And about 30% or so of what we did this quarter was really opportunistically buying homes on a one-off basis from the homebuilders off their tapes.

不。亨德爾，我認為我唯一要補充的是，當你查看我們本季的收購情況時，正如達拉斯所說，其中大約 70% 是預購交付，我們去年開始的社區交付計劃已經進行到一半了，我們正接近尾聲。本季我們所做的工作中，大約有 30% 是真正抓住機會，從房屋建築商的庫存中一次性購買房屋。

I think it's been widely reported that the homebuilders have had a lot of inventory, and they've been trying to sell homes, have deliveries in 30 days. And so I think for us, it's been a great opportunistic way for us not only to pick up homes at 20%-plus discounts to market value, but also get a home for almost immediate delivery that we can put into the market and hopefully get leased within 60, 90 days. So I think we feel good about what we've done, and we've been smart and opportunistic, I think, about where we've allocated.

我認為已經有許多報導指出，房屋建築商有很多庫存，他們一直在努力出售房屋，並承諾在 30 天內交付。因此，我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的機會，不僅可以以低於市場價 20% 以上的折扣購買房屋，還可以獲得幾乎可以立即交付的房屋，我們可以將其投放市場，並希望在 60 到 90 天內出租出去。所以我覺得我們對自己的工作感到滿意，而且我認為我們在資源分配方面做得既明智又有把握。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Just going back to an earlier question, you guys affirmed the same-store revenue guidance, but you did keep a wider range late in the year. So I guess despite kind of, Tim, your comments on trends being largely as expected, why not tighten the range this late in the year? And then also curious, are you continuing to offer similar concessions that you referenced in October to hold that occupancy at 96%? Thanks.

回到先前的問題，你們確認了同店收入預期，但在年底時確實放寬了預期範圍。所以我想，儘管蒂姆，你對趨勢的評論在很大程度上符合預期，但為什麼不在年底這個時間點收緊波動範圍呢？另外，我還想問一下，您是否會繼續提供類似10月份提到的優惠政策，以維持96%的入住率？謝謝。

Thanks for the question. It's Jon. I'll chat briefly about the revenue range. Just to be clear, we did tighten that range. I think if it strikes you as particularly wide late in the year, I would just point out that this is sort of a dynamic environment, and we want to be mindful of that.

謝謝你的提問。是喬恩。我簡單談談收入範圍。需要說明的是，我們確實收緊了該範圍。我認為，如果到了年底你覺得這個數字特別大，我只想指出，這是一個動態的環境，我們要意識到這一點。

We continue to feel good about the way the year is shaping up. And I would remind folks that really from the first part of the year, we've been talking about rate and occupancy in terms of our overall expectations for 2025. In the first part of the year, I think repeatedly, we said we were running a little bit ahead of where we expected to be. And I think what we're seeing is that results are sort of aligning around what our full-year expectations were.

我們對今年的發展前景依然感到樂觀。我想提醒大家，從今年上半年開始，我們就一直在討論房價和入住率，以此作為我們對 2025 年的整體預期。今年上半年，我們曾多次表示，我們的進展比預期略微超前了一些。我認為我們看到的是，結果基本上符合我們全年的預期。

And so still feel very good about our full-year occupancy guide. I think with respect to some of the other items, time will tell. We feel good about where we're coming in from a tax perspective. Recall, our original range was 5% to 6%. We expect we'll be around the bottom end of that range and hopefully do a little bit better than we anticipated with respect to insurance expense and some of the controllables.

因此，我對我們全年的入住率預測仍然感到非常滿意。至於其他一些事情，我認為時間會證明一切。從稅務角度來看，我們對目前的處境感到滿意。回想一下，我們最初的範圍是 5% 到 6%。我們預計最終結果會在這個範圍的下限附近，並且希望在保險費用和一些可控因素方面能比預期做得更好一些。

But I think from a revenue perspective, we want to be mindful of the fact that this is an environment where we have to be nimble, and we have to really pursue every lead, every opportunity because it's just a little bit softer than it's been.

但從收入的角度來看，我認為我們應該意識到，在這個環境下，我們必須靈活應變，必須認真應對每一個線索、每一個機會，因為現在的市場環境比以前更艱難。

Anything you want to --?

任何你想做的——？

Yes. Thanks, Jon. Yes, I can touch on the specials. Look, on the specials that we're offering, we typically run targeted specials in October and November. It's a great tool in the toolbox. Our goal when we present these to the market is to boost traffic and generate leasing momentum ahead of the holiday season when the market tends to slow down a little bit. We're pleased with the results we're seeing, and we'll continue to evaluate the need to keep those in place.

是的。謝謝你，喬恩。是的，我可以談談特別節目。你看，我們提供的特價商品，通常會在十月和十一月推出針對特定人群的特價活動。它是工具箱裡非常棒的工具。我們向市場推出這些產品的目標是在假日季節到來之前提升客流量並創造租賃勢頭，因為假日季期間市場往往會略微放緩。我們對目前所取得的成果感到滿意，並將繼續評估是否有必要維持這些成果。

Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.

Brad Heffern，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Another one on the repurchase. Do you see that as an attractive use of capital as we sit here today? And then can you talk through what the governor on that activity is? I would think using dispositions to fund it might get complicated just because homes have appreciated so much, but is that an issue? And is there anything else you would call out on the philosophy there?

另一起回購事件。就目前情況來看，您認為這是對資本的一種有吸引力的運用方式嗎？那麼，您能否詳細談談州長對這項活動的看法？我認為利用資產處置來籌集資金可能會變得很複雜，因為房價已經大幅上漲，但這真的是個問題嗎？你對這種理念還有其他需要被指出的地方嗎？

Look, the one governor, just to remind everyone is that we're subject to the same blackout periods that we traditionally have. In terms of it being an interesting price in the spot, there certainly are times where if we have excess capital or an ability to deploy accretively and a share buyback could fit into that category, it's something we consider.

聽著，州長，我只是想提醒大家，我們還是要遵守傳統的停電規定。就當前價格而言，如果股票價格很有吸引力，那麼當我們有多餘的資金或能夠進行增值投資，而股票回購又符合這項條件時，我們當然會考慮這樣做。

I hate to say what we are going to do or not going to do. And just remember, there's always sort of a spread between where -- what the market thinks you can do at any given time as you balance out sort of deliveries and cost of capital and things that are going on in the business. So we'll use it judiciously. We'll be smart about it. We'll do it in concert with our Board investments and Finance Committee. And that's how we're going to approach it going into the end of the year.

我不想透露我們將要做什麼或不做什麼。請記住，在任何特定時間，市場認為你能做什麼，而你實際上能做什麼，總是會存在一定的差距，因為你要平衡交付量、資金成本以及業務中正在發生的事情。所以我們會謹慎使用它。我們會謹慎處理。我們將與董事會投資和財務委員會協調一致地進行這項工作。這就是我們今年底將採取的應對方式。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

傑米·費爾德曼，富國銀行。

Great. Thank you. I guess kind of sticking with some policy questions here. What do you think the impacts have been on immigration policy changes in your markets, whether it's on construction costs with labor or overall demand? And are you seeing any difference across different regions or markets?

太好了，謝謝。我想我們還是主要討論一些政策議題。您認為移民政策的改變對您所在市場的市場產生了哪些影響？例如，對勞動成本或整體需求的影響？您是否發現不同地區或市場之間有任何差異？

Look, I'll handle the first part on the immigration. We've asked the same question of homebuilders, and we paid attention to some of the commentary. I mean, look, it has to have some effect, right? I mean, we're not seeing anything from an occupancy perspective. We're sort of in the sweet spot of our range, as Jon and Tim mentioned.

你看，移民方面的第一部分我會處理。我們也向房屋建築商提出了同樣的問題，並且關注了一些評論。我的意思是，你看，這肯定會產生一些影響，對吧？我的意思是，從入住率的角度來看，我們什麼也沒看到。正如 Jon 和 Tim 所提到的，我們現在正處於產品範圍的最佳狀態。

Our expectations going into the year were that we had run kind of in the low to mid-97s as an average occupancy in '24. We just knew that wasn't sustainable. It was going to kind of come into the kind of the mid-96s.

年初時，我們的預期是 2024 年平均入住率會維持在 97% 左右。我們早就知道那樣做是不可持續的。大概會在96年中期到來。

We're not seeing anything in terms of lead volume or customer profile. In fact, our FICO scores are basically in the same range they've been for several quarters in a row. As far as what we're seeing with labor costs and land costs and input costs, Scott, do you want to provide a little color there?

就銷售線索數量或客戶畫像而言，我們沒有任何改善。事實上，我們的FICO信用評分基本上與過去幾季持平。史考特，關於勞動成本、土地成本和投入成本，你能否詳細說明一下？

Yes. I mean, for a broader question, Jamie, I think as it relates to what we're seeing on construction costs with the homebuilders, I think so far, so good. I think finished lot prices have kind of slowed down their rising pricing. And I think there's been a decline in lot buying by the builders. I think construction costs have moderated and are generally under control.

是的。我的意思是，傑米，就更廣泛的問題而言，我認為就我們目前看到的房屋建築商的建築成本而言，我認為到目前為止，一切都很好。我認為成品價格的上漲速度已經放緩。我認為建築商購買地塊的數量有所下降。我認為建築成本已經趨於穩定，整體而言處於可控範圍內。

I think the data we've seen says that maybe there's a little bit of a labor cost rising in terms of the total production for homes. But I think in general, like in terms of the purchase prices that we're seeing and the construction costs that the homebuilders are passing on us, I think we're seeing it kind of in line with what we expected and in a pretty decent place.

我認為我們看到的數據表明，就房屋總產量而言，勞動力成本可能略有上升。但我認為總體而言，就我們看到的購房價格和房屋建築商轉嫁給我們的建築成本而言，我認為我們看到的情況與我們的預期基本一致，而且處於相當不錯的水平。

Jesse Lederman, Zelman & Associates.

傑西·萊德曼，澤爾曼及合夥人公司。

Curious what you're seeing from a front-end demand perspective that gives you confidence that the headwind from a pricing power perspective is supply related and not demand related. Maybe some commentary surrounding the reception to the new move-in specials or any other way that you quantify demand would be great. Thank you.

我很好奇，從前端需求的角度來看，是什麼讓您確信定價權方面的阻力與供應有關，而不是與需求有關。如果您能就新推出的入住特惠活動的反應或其他任何量化需求的方式發表一些評論，那就太好了。謝謝。

Yes. Great question. This is Tim here. Look, on the demand side, we are continuing to see a healthy demand for single-family homes. Our website traffic remains very consistent. Obviously, there's more product out on the market, as Dallas talked about earlier, the couple of different channels that has produced that supply. So that demand is being spread across more homes on the market.

是的。問得好。我是提姆。從需求方面來看，我們持續看到對獨棟住宅的健康需求。我們的網站流量一直都非常穩定。顯然，市場上產品更多了，正如達拉斯之前提到的那樣，這些產品是透過幾個不同的管道生產的。因此，這種需求分散到了市場上更多的房屋。

But look, we like our position. The Invitation Homes promise is a good one. We try to differentiate our brand through our ProCare, through our value-add services. So we think we're going to still capture our fair share of the marketplace. So obviously, heading into the fourth quarter, demand does go down a little bit, but that's a seasonal component, but we like our position as we head into the end of the year.

但是，我們很滿意我們目前的處境。Invitation Homes的承諾很不錯。我們努力透過我們的ProCare服務和增值服務來打造差異化品牌形象。所以我們認為我們仍然能夠獲得我們應有的市場份額。顯然，進入第四季後，需求會略有下降，但這屬於季節性因素，但我們對年底前的情況感到滿意。

Juan Sanabria, BMO Capital Markets.

Juan Sanabria，BMO 資本市場。

Just a question on the loss to lease. Where do you see that presently? And then kind of a Part B turnover, it seems to finally be kind of inching up. Do you think we've kind of bottomed out there? And do you expect to see more turnover going forward given some of the competing factors both on the supply and demand side?

關於租賃損失的問題。你目前在哪裡看到這種情況？然後就像第二部分一樣，情況似乎終於開始緩慢好轉了。你覺得我們是不是已經觸底了？考慮到供需雙方的一些競爭因素，您是否預期未來會出現更多人員流動？

Hey, Juan, it's Jon. Thanks for the question. With respect to loss to lease, I would say that's kind of low to mid-single digits. I think it's important to remember with respect to loss to lease that that is not consistent across every home and every market, right? You can create cohorts of homes that have varying degrees of loss to lease.

嘿，胡安，我是喬恩。謝謝你的提問。至於租賃損失，我認為應該在個位數的低到中等。我認為，關於租賃損失，需要記住的是，這種情況並非適用於所有房屋和所有市場，對吧？您可以建立不同出租損失程度的房屋組。

And so over time and distance, as our expectation would be that 70%, 75% of those are going to renew, you're going to extract what you can. But recognize that that loss to lease number relative to what we actually achieve sort of depends on a number of variables.

因此，隨著時間的推移和租賃距離的增加，我們預計其中70%到75%的租賃合約會續簽，這樣你就能盡可能地提高收益。但要注意的是，租賃損失率相對於我們實際獲得的收益，取決於許多變數。

I think overall -- sorry, remind me the second part of your question, Juan?

總的來說——抱歉，胡安，請提醒我你問題的第二部分是什麼？

Turnover and how you guys think about that going forward?

人員流動狀況以及你們對未來如何看待這個問題的看法？

Yeah. Thank you. I mean, I think turnover obviously, is certainly seasonal. We expect to see turnover pick up in the second and third quarters and then moderate in the first and fourth. Do expect that turnover will return to something closer to a long-term average, kind of closer to 25% than the 22% that we were seeing.

是的。謝謝。我的意思是，我認為人員流動顯然具有季節性。我們預期第二節和第三節的失誤次數會增加，然後第一節和第四節的失誤次數會有所緩和。預計人員流動率將回歸到更接近長期平均的水平，比我們之前看到的 22% 更接近 25%。

But we continue to see a high propensity to renew. We continue to see the affordability gap really drive demand for single-family rental product and feel good that even at a somewhat higher level of turnover going forward, this is a really, really sticky customer. They appreciate the product and the service that we deliver, and they continue to stay with us longer and longer. So we feel really good about the setup and think that single-family rentals, in particular, are well positioned in the residential market.

但我們仍然看到很高的續約傾向。我們持續看到，住房負擔能力差距確實推動了對單戶住宅租賃產品的需求，令人欣慰的是，即使未來房屋週轉率略高，這仍然是一個非常非常忠誠的客戶群。他們很欣賞我們提供的產品和服務，並且會越來越長時間地與我們保持合作關係。因此，我們對目前的佈局感到非常滿意，並認為單戶住宅租賃在住宅市場中尤其具有良好的定位。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧克雷默，摩根士丹利。

Maybe a little bit of a higher level, bigger picture one. I think our view has been that the apartments have underperformed of late. I think a lot of that has been driven by sort of slowing job growth and concerns around the job growth from here. I think our view has been that SFR should be a little bit more insulated from that, right, given, I think, some demographic reasons.

或許是從更高層次、更宏觀的角度來看。我認為我們一直以來的觀點是，近來公寓的表現低於預期。我認為這很大程度上是由於就業成長放緩以及對未來就業成長的擔憂。我認為我們的觀點是，鑑於一些人口統計學上的原因，獨棟住宅應該能更好地免受這種影響，對吧。

Wondering sort of when you guys think about your own business, how you sort of think about the demand drivers? Obviously, there's the housing market and sort of what's happening there on the for-sale side. But when you think about job growth and sort of the path forward there, how much do you think that sort of matters or doesn't matter for your business? And as we look to next year, I guess, sort of how would you think about demand next year maybe versus what you've had this year?

我想知道你們在思考自己的業務時，是如何考慮需求驅動因素的？顯然，這裡有房屋市場，以及待售房屋方面正在發生的事情。但是，當你考慮就業成長以及未來的發展道路時，你認為這對你的企業有多重要，或者說有多不重要？展望明年，您認為明年的需求與今年相比會如何？

It's hard to tell the weather perfectly when it's that far out. But I would just say our setup coming into this year, we felt very confident that we could renew sort of in that 75% to 77% of the time with our current customer that we don't see anything that suggests that changes going into next year. So it feels like the renewals from that perspective have kind of done what we thought.

遠未到預報日期時，很難準確預測天氣。但我想說的是，就我們今年的安排而言，我們非常有信心能夠與現有客戶續約，續約率在 75% 到 77% 之間，而且我們也沒有看到任何跡象表明明年情況會發生變化。所以從這個角度來看，續約似乎達到了我們預期的效果。

I want to be careful on any guide. Jon will get frustrated with me if I say anything prior to our February call. But look, we're not seeing any degradation of our customer. Tim talked about leads and leads coming in. It's still pretty healthy. Our actual conversion efforts on leads is a bit higher than what we've typically seen, and our collections have been actually quite better than what we've seen historically. So there's nothing in the customer profile in our current customer base that suggests big changes are on the horizon.

我想謹慎對待任何指南。如果我在二月通話之前說任何話，喬恩會生我的氣。但是你看，我們並沒有看到客戶滿意度下降。提姆談到了銷售線索和新到的銷售線索。它目前身體狀況還不錯。我們實際的潛在客戶轉換率比以往略高，而且我們的收款情況也比以往好得多。因此，從我們現有客戶群的客戶概況來看，沒有任何跡象顯示即將發生重大變化。

I think it has more to do -- the only kind of variable that we keep working through is this new lease supply issue. It's really the only thing in our business that we feel like is something that is sort of hard to forecast perfectly. And a lot of that has to do with what the housing market does generally, to your point.

我認為這其中還有更深層的原因——我們一直在努力解決的唯一變數就是新的租賃供應問題。在我們這個產業裡，這真的是唯一一件我們覺得很難完美預測的事情。正如你所說，這很大程度上與房地產市場的整體趨勢有關。

We'd like to see more -- candidly, we'd like to see more homes selling on the market. That transaction volume is a good proxy for home price appreciation, obviously, but also a good proxy for rent growth going forward. And so we'll continue to just keep our back door as efficiently close as we have. Jon talked about that. We're not seeing anything there.

坦白說，我們希望看到更多房屋在市場上出售。顯然，交易量是房價上漲的良好指標，同時也是未來租金成長的良好指標。所以我們會繼續像以前一樣，有效率地把後門關好。喬恩談到了這件事。我們在那裡什麼也沒看到。

Our FICO scores look great from our customers coming in, our collections and our bad debt are exactly where we wanted to be. So just keep grinding on the opportunity set that's in front of us from a new lease and a supply perspective. Outside of that, the business is doing pretty much what we thought it would do.

從客戶回饋來看，我們的 FICO 信用評分非常理想，催收情況和壞帳情況也完全符合我們的預期。所以，從新租賃和供應的角度來看，我們只需要繼續努力抓住擺在我們面前的各種機會。除此之外，公司的發展基本上符合我們的預期。

John Pawlowski, Green Street.

約翰‧帕夫洛夫斯基，格林街。

Just a quick question on -- essentially, I'm trying to get around or get at the performance in the non-same-store pool. So can you help frame like the '23 vintages of acquisitions and '24 vintages of acquisitions, how NOI has performed relative to your underwriting to date?

我有一個關於非同店交易池的快速問題——本質上，我想了解或獲取該交易池中的表現。那麼，您能否幫助我們分析 2023 年和 2024 年的收購情況，以及迄今為止 NOI 相對於您的承銷情況的表現？

Yes, John, I'm probably going to have to come back to you with more of that detail as a follow-up. But I would say that homes that we bought in kind of the '22, '23 time frame were basically sort of when the market had the most froth and when underwriting was arguably more likely to anticipate continued strong rent growth.

是的，約翰，我可能還需要就這方面的細節再跟你報告一下。但我認為，我們在 2022 年、2023 年期間購買的房屋，基本上是市場泡沫最大的時候，當時的承銷商更有可能預期租金會繼續強勁增長。

So I think that vintage of homes probably has a little more wood to chop to get itself in line from a margin perspective. But we feel really good about the product we have bought. We feel really good about the way we are approaching investing in this marketplace. I think right now, it's just a function, as Dallas said, of getting this new supply absorbed and hopefully seeing the resale market get to a healthier, more liquid place.

所以我覺得，從利潤率的角度來看，老房子產業可能還需要更多努力才能達到標準。但我們對所購產品非常滿意。我們對目前在這個市場進行投資的方式感到非常滿意。我認為，正如達拉斯所說，現在的關鍵在於消化這些新增供應，並希望二手房市場能變得更健康、更流動。

Julien Blouin, Goldman Sachs.

Julien Blouin，高盛集團。

Dallas, I wonder what you make of the current public versus private market valuation disconnect reflected in your stock today. And maybe to an earlier question on capital allocation, do you feel like just executing your strategy and starting to be aggressive on the share repurchase front can sort of help narrow that? Or at some point, are there sort of additional strategic options you and the Board sort of start to look at to drive shareholder value?

達拉斯，我想知道你如何看待目前公開市場與私人市場估值脫節的現象，而這種現像也反映在你今天的股票價格中。或許可以回到先前關於資本配置的問題，您是否覺得執行您的策略並開始積極回購股票可以幫助縮小這個問題的範圍？或者，在某個時候，您和董事會是否會開始考慮其他一些策略選擇來提升股東價值？

Thanks for the question. On the strategic side of it, obviously, we're going to sort of keep that in-house in terms of the things we think about. But I would -- I feel comfortable saying that our disposition strategy where we can continue to sell homes between a 4% and a 4.5% cap and accretively reinvest either in share buyback or new acquisitions that are in the, call it, six cap range with really good revenue growth profiles in front of them will continue to be accretive way to create shareholder value.

謝謝你的提問。在策略方面，很顯然，我們會把考慮的事情都保留在公司內部。但我可以肯定地說，我們目前的資產處置策略，即繼續以 4% 到 4.5% 的資本化率出售房屋，並將收益再投資於股票回購或新的收購項目（這些項目的資本化率在 6% 左右，並且具有非常好的收入增長前景），將繼續成為創造股東價值的有效途徑。

We've been obviously as frustrated as probably most of our residential peers have been in terms of the dislocation between public values and private values. It's hard when REIT outflows are moving in the way that they have and where 80% of the S&P has sort of been lifted by AI or anything tech-induced. It's just an interesting environment for real estate businesses at the moment in the public sector.

顯然，我們和大多數居民一樣，對公共價值和私人價值觀之間的脫節感到沮喪。當 REIT 資金外流以目前的方式進行，而標普 500 指數 80% 的漲幅又受到人工智慧或任何科技因素的影響時，情況就變得很艱難。目前公共部門的房地產企業面臨一個有趣的經營環境。

We're certainly seeing private transactions trade at much lower implied cap rates than where public market valuations sit today. But we're also -- we've been in this business long enough and in and around real estate long enough to know that there are cycles to it. And sometimes at times, things don't make sense, specifically in the public space. And so we just keep our heads down, and we'll keep recycling capital in a way that's meaningful. And we'll certainly look for some of those other opportunities in our tool belt when they present themselves.

我們確實看到，私人交易的隱含資本化率遠低於目前公開市場的估值水準。但我們也——我們在這個行業摸爬滾打了這麼多年，在房地產領域也待了這麼久，深知這個行業有週期性波動。有時候，尤其是在公共領域，有些事情就是不合邏輯。所以我們會繼續埋頭苦幹，以有意義的方式循環利用資本。我們當然會在機會出現時，利用我們現有的工具箱來尋找其他機會。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

Rich Hightower，巴克萊銀行。

Just a quick clarifying question. Dallas, I want to go back to the sort of the different buckets of potential competitive supply you referenced earlier on the call. And I think last quarter, the forecast is for BTR specifically to drop pretty significantly in 2026. And so I'm just kind of piecing that together with what you said earlier. So does that imply that those other buckets that are sort of the non-BTR would be maybe bigger question marks or growing at a more rapid rate? Just help us understand maybe some of the dynamics there.

我還有一個問題需要澄清。達拉斯，我想回到你之前在電話會議上提到的不同潛在競爭供應類別。而且我認為上個季度的預測是，BTR（建築、住宅和房地產）在 2026 年將大幅下降。所以我現在只是把這些和你之前說的拼湊起來。那麼，這是否意味著那些非BTR的其他類別可能會存在更大的疑問，或成長速度更快？請您幫我們理解其中的一些動態。

Yeah. No, it's a fair question. On the latter point, there isn't anything that's suggesting we're seeing like an acceleration in terms of supply. In fact, as I mentioned before, there are some markets where we're actually cautiously optimistic. I don't want to call a bottom yet, but we're seeing some good signs in Florida.

是的。不，這是個合理的問題。關於後一點，沒有任何跡象表明供應方面正在加速成長。事實上，正如我之前提到的，在某些市場，我們持謹慎樂觀的態度。我現在還不想斷言已經觸底，但我們在佛羅裡達州看到了一些好跡象。

And there's markets like Phoenix where it's still pretty tough from a new lease perspective. There's just more inventory on the market. And those are the markets where we obviously have the biggest exposure.

像鳳凰城這樣的市場，從新租賃的角度來看仍然相當艱難。市場上庫存量增加了。而這些顯然是我們投資額最大的市場。

And so we spend a lot of time looking at these markets and sort of dissecting those three different buckets, which is what are we seeing in BTR. And actually, we've seen better velocity in our own book of business on the BTR leasing side. There seems to be like a pickup in demand there, which has been pretty helpful.

因此，我們花了很多時間研究這些市場，並對這三個不同的類別進行剖析，而這正是我們在BTR中所看到的。事實上，我們在BTR租賃業務方面已經看到了更好的成長速度。那裡的需求似乎有所回升，這很有幫助。

We've spent a lot of times with our partners and data out there to try to understand what's going on in the listing universe and how much of that is maybe Joe Homeowner converting to a lease. You see more of that in the summer. We'd expect some of that to wane here as we get into Q4 and Q1 to John's point.

我們花了很多時間與合作夥伴一起分析數據，試圖了解房源市場正在發生什麼，以及有多少房主可能正在將房屋轉為租賃。夏天這種情況比較多。正如約翰所說，我們預計隨著進入第四季度和第一季度，這種情況會減弱。

So no, it feels like it's sort of flattened out. It's kind of right where we expected it would have been, albeit there's just -- it's just a pear more competitive if you're vacant in those markets right now and you're competing for the customer. You got to be on your game. You have to be priced appropriate. And as Tim mentioned before, there are times and we've done this in normal markets, October, November, where you got to be a little bit more aggressive.

所以，不，感覺像是被壓扁了一樣。它基本上符合我們的預期，儘管——如果你現在在這些市場中處於空缺狀態，並且你在爭奪客戶，那麼競爭就會更加激烈。你必須拿出最佳狀態。價格必須合理。正如提姆之前提到的那樣，有些時候，我們在正常的市場環境下，例如十月、十一月，就必須採取更積極主動的策略。

And so our philosophy right now is versus having something sit on the market for an extra three or four weeks, we might be a little bit more aggressive and fill it up here in Q4.

因此，我們目前的理念是，與其讓產品在市場上多停留三到四周，我們可能會更積極一些，在第四季度就將其售罄。

Jade Rahmani, KBW.

Jade Rahmani，KBW。

Just to touch on geographies. It'd be helpful to hear if there are any markets that you were surprised with either their outperformance or underperformance relative to your expectations. Thanks.

簡單談談地理方面。如果您發現有任何市場表現超出或低於您的預期，請不吝賜教。謝謝。

It's an interesting question, and we probably all have different views on different things in our business. I would just say generally, and this -- I really should say this, kudos to our team, like Costa maintains -- they've done a wonderful job in terms of managing the turnover and costs and the way that we're managing sort of some of those expenses.

這是一個有趣的問題，我們每個人對業務中的不同事情可能都有不同的看法。我只想說，總的來說，而且——我真的應該這麼說，要讚揚一下我們的團隊，就像 Costa 所說的那樣——他們在管理人員流動和成本以及我們管理其中一些費用方面做得非常出色。

I think on the renewal side of the house, we've been very pleased with the things that we've even seen in markets like Miami. Some of the Florida markets are still really, really strong on the renewals, while maybe it's a different story on the new lease side of things.

我認為在房屋翻新方面，我們對即使在邁阿密這樣的市場所看到的情況也感到非常滿意。佛羅裡達州的一些市場在續租方面仍然非常強勁，而新租的情況可能就有所不同了。

And Atlanta has been a generally pretty strong market. I think what we've sort of acknowledged over the last couple of calls is that Chicago and Minneapolis have both been outperforming now for four to six quarters. I'm not sure that that can go on forever in terms of what the Midwest does, but that has been a very good bright spot for us over the last year, 1.5 years, where those markets have basically had no new supply over the last 10 years, and you're seeing it in some of the data.

亞特蘭大一直以來都是一個相當強勁的市場。我認為我們在過去幾次電話會議中已經基本確認，芝加哥和明尼阿波利斯都已經連續四到六個季度表現優異。我不確定中西部地區的情況能否永遠持續下去，但在過去一年半的時間裡，這對我們來說是一個非常好的亮點，因為這些市場在過去 10 年裡基本上沒有新增供應，這一點在一些數據中也能看到。

That completes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Dallas Tanner for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我謹將會議交還給達拉斯·坦納，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, guys, for joining us today. We're looking forward to seeing many of you at our upcoming Investor Day and looking forward to sharing more of our story broadly through the webcast. Thanks for all your support and for listening. We'll see you soon.

謝謝各位今天收看我們的節目。我們期待在即將舉行的投資者日上見到各位，並期待透過網路直播與更多人分享我們的故事。感謝大家的支持與聆聽。我們很快就會再見。

The conference has now concluded. You may now disconnect.

會議已經結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。