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Operator
Operator
Welcome to the Invitation Homes fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.
歡迎參加 Invitation Homes 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指令)
As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
提醒一下,本次會議正在錄音。
At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Scott McLaughlin, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Scott McLaughlin。請繼續。
Scott McLaughlin - Senior Vice President - Investor Relations Tax
Scott McLaughlin - Senior Vice President - Investor Relations Tax
Greetings and welcome.
問候並歡迎。
I'm here today from Invitation Homes with Dallas Tanner, Chief Executive Officer; Charles Young, President and Chief Operating Officer; Jon Olsen, Chief Financial Officer; and Scott Eisen, Chief Investment Officer.
今天我代表 Invitation Homes 與首席執行官達拉斯坦納 (Dallas Tanner) 一起來到這裡;總裁兼首席營運官查爾斯楊 (Charles Young);喬恩·奧爾森 (Jon Olsen),首席財務官;以及首席投資官斯科特·艾森(Scott Eisen)。
Following our prepared remarks, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session with our covering sell side analysts.
在我們準備好發言之後,我們將與我們的賣方分析師進行問答環節。
During today's call, we may reference our fourth quarter 2024 earnings release and supplemental information. This document was issued yesterday after the market closed and is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at www.invh.com. Certain statements we make during this call may include forward-looking statements relating to the future performance of our business, financial results, liquidity and capital resources, and other non-historical statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated. We described some of these risks and uncertainties in our 2023 annual report on Form 10-K and other filings we make with the SEC from time to time. Except to the extent otherwise required by law, Invitation Homes does not update forward-looking statements and expressly disclaims any obligation to do so. We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures during the call. You can find additional information regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures in yesterday's earnings release.
在今天的電話會議中,我們可能會參考我們的 2024 年第四季財報和補充資料。文件於昨日市場收盤後發布,可在我們網站 www.invh.com 的投資者關係部分查閱。我們在本次電話會議中所做的某些陳述可能包括與我們業務未來表現、財務表現、流動性和資本資源有關的前瞻性陳述以及其他非歷史陳述,這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與所示的結果有重大差異。我們在 2023 年 10-K 表年度報告以及我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中描述了其中一些風險和不確定性。除法律另有要求外,Invitation Homes 不會更新前瞻性聲明,並明確表示不承擔任何更新前瞻性聲明的義務。我們也可能在電話會議中討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以找到有關這些非 GAAP 指標的更多信息,包括與昨天的收益報告中最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對帳。
With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dallas Tanner, our Chief Executive Officer.
說完這些,我現在將電話轉給我們的執行長達拉斯坦納 (Dallas Tanner)。
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.
大家早安,感謝大家今天的參與。
I'm pleased to report that Invitation Homes delivered another strong quarter of operational and financial results to close out 2024.
我很高興地報告,Invitation Homes 在 2024 年結束時又取得了強勁的營運和財務表現。
Our full year results demonstrated solid execution across our platform, including core FFO per share growth of 6.4% and AFFO per share growth of 6.7%. I extend my thanks to our dedicated teams and for the continued loyalty of our residents.
我們的全年業績證明了我們整個平台的穩健執行,其中每股核心 FFO 成長 6.4%,每股 AFFO 成長 6.7%。我向我們敬業的團隊和居民的持續忠誠表示感謝。
On the latter point, we're proud that our residents continue to choose Invitation Homes for the long term. During the fourth quarter, average length of stay was approximately 38 months. We also achieved a renewal rate of 80% with same-store rental rate growth on renewals of 4.2% year over year.
關於後一點,我們很自豪我們的居民會長期繼續選擇 Invitation Homes。第四季度,平均住院時間約38個月。我們也實現了 80% 的續約率,同店租金續約率年增 4.2%。
We believe this underscores the value proposition that our industry and our platform offer, and the strong relationships we're able to maintain with our residents over time. It's also a testament to the continued demand for our high quality homes in desirable neighborhoods located in some of the fastest growing areas of the country and delivered with our trademark Genuine Care.
我們相信,這強調了我們的產業和平台所提供的價值主張,以及我們能夠與居民長期維持的牢固關係。這也證明了我們的高品質住宅需求持續成長,這些住宅位於全國發展最快的一些地區的理想社區,並且採用我們的品牌 Genuine Care 提供。
During 2024, we emerged as the professional manager of choice for partners seeking premium service and performance. We grew our JV and third-party managed home count by more than 6.5 times last year to over 25,000 homes. We expect this business to continue to have opportunities to grow in the future.
2024年,我們成為尋求優質服務和績效的合作夥伴的首選專業經理人。去年,我們的合資和第三方管理房屋數量增加了 6.5 倍多,達到超過 25,000 套。我們預計該業務未來將繼續有成長機會。
At the same time, we further optimized our wholly owned portfolio, recycling capital from older assets into newly constructed growth enhancing investments. This was possible in part through our innovative builder partnerships, helping us welcome over 1,800 individuals and families into newly built homes during 2024.
同時,我們進一步優化了我們的全資投資組合,將舊資產的資本回收用於新建的促進成長的投資。這在一定程度上得益於我們創新的建築商合作夥伴關係,幫助我們在 2024 年迎來超過 1,800 名個人和家庭入住新建住宅。
In the meantime, our pipeline remains robust, with more than 2,000 homes under development by our homebuilder partners at the start of this year. Since we launched our homebuilder partnerships nearly four years ago, we have continued to broaden and refine the traditional build to rent model.
同時,我們的專案儲備仍然充足,截至今年年初,我們的房屋建築商合作夥伴正在開發超過 2,000 棟住宅。自從四年前我們建立房屋建築商合作夥伴關係以來,我們一直在不斷拓寬和完善傳統的建房出租模式。
In doing so, we've moved beyond the binary view of either on balance sheet development or completed home purchases. Rather, our unique broad spectrum approach considers everything from early stage builder partnerships to the acquisition of stabilized communities.
透過這樣做,我們已經超越了資產負債表發展或已完成的房屋購買的二元觀點。相反,我們獨特的廣泛方法考慮了從早期建築商合作夥伴關係到穩定社區的收購等一切方面。
As the market has further evolved and our approach has become more sophisticated, we're continuing to evaluate new opportunities and structures to strengthen our growth profile by thinking outside of the traditional SFR box.
隨著市場進一步發展,我們的方法變得更加複雜,我們將繼續評估新的機會和結構,以透過跳出傳統的 SFR 框架來加強我們的成長前景。
Combined, our strategic growth initiatives allow us to enhance our scale and density within our core markets and potentially expand our existing footprint by evaluating new markets with attractive growth profiles. As we've learned, improved scale and density support better OpEx and CapEx management across the entire portfolio, setting the stage for overall margin expansion.
綜合起來,我們的策略成長計畫使我們能夠擴大我們在核心市場的規模和密度,並透過評估具有吸引力的成長前景的新市場來擴大我們現有的足跡。據我們了解,規模和密度的提高有利於整個投資組合更好地管理營運支出和資本支出,為整體利潤率的擴大奠定基礎。
In that regard, our same-store NOI margin returned to over 68% last year, and we believe we can continue to see improvement as we further execute on our growth and efficiency objectives.
在這方面,我們的同店淨營業利潤率去年回升至 68%以上,我們相信,隨著我們進一步執行成長和效率目標,我們能夠繼續看到改善。
Turning now to current market conditions. Last summer, we were among the first to call out the moderating impact that new home deliveries were having in some of our markets. We continue to work through this and are seeing some early signs of improvement.
現在來談談當前的市場狀況。去年夏天,我們是第一批指出新房交付對部分市場產生減緩影響的公司之一。我們將繼續努力解決這個問題,並看到了一些早期改善的跡象。
At the same time, we are taking a measured approach with our initial expectations for 2025 and remaining vigilant as we seek better clarity throughout the year including with regard to new supply for the year ahead, the impact of potential tariffs and the chance for prolonged higher mortgage rates, and the effect that builder spec inventory and buyer incentives may have on the market.
同時,我們對 2025 年的初步預期採取了審慎的態度,並保持警惕,尋求全年更加清晰的形勢,包括未來一年的新供應、潛在關稅的影響和長期提高抵押貸款利率的可能性,以及建築商規格庫存和買家激勵措施可能對市場產生的影響。
Nevertheless, we believe the tailwinds for our business remain supported by the demographics. As a reminder, there are 46 million American households who lease their primary residence. And among those, nearly one in three choose to lease a single-family home.
儘管如此,我們相信人口統計數據仍將為我們的業務帶來有利因素。提醒一下,有 4600 萬美國家庭租賃其主要住所。其中,近三分之一的人選擇租賃獨棟住宅。
With our average resident age of 38 years old, this includes many millennials and young families who desire the flexibility and convenience of leasing a single-family home. It also includes those who appreciate the compelling value of leasing, with the average cost of leasing a single family home nearly $1,100 a month cheaper than owning in our markets, according to John Burns' research.
我們的居民平均年齡為 38 歲,其中包括許多千禧世代和年輕家庭,他們希望獲得租賃獨戶住宅的靈活性和便利性。其中還包括那些欣賞租賃的引人注目的價值的人,根據約翰·伯恩斯的研究,租賃一套單戶住宅的平均成本比在我們的市場上購買一套住宅每月便宜近 1,100 美元。
As we look ahead, we remain confident in our ability to capitalize on opportunities while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation. With our dedicated teams, strategic approach to external growth and operational excellence, we believe we are well-positioned to create value for our stakeholders while delivering on our mission to provide high-quality homes and superior service to our residents.
展望未來,我們對自己抓住機會的能力充滿信心,同時保持嚴謹的資本配置方式。憑藉我們敬業的團隊、外部成長的策略方針和卓越的運營,我們相信我們完全有能力為我們的利害關係人創造價值,同時履行我們的使命,為我們的居民提供高品質的住房和優質的服務。
Charles, over to you.
查爾斯,交給你了。
Charles Young - President, Chief Operating Officer
Charles Young - President, Chief Operating Officer
Thank you, Dallas.
謝謝你,達拉斯。
I'm proud to begin by highlighting our team's outstanding response to the recent wildfires in Los Angeles. Our local team showcased the very best of Invitation Homes, demonstrating extraordinary dedication and caring for our residents.
首先,我很自豪地強調我們團隊對最近洛杉磯山火的出色反應。我們的在地團隊展現了 Invitation Homes 的最佳品質,體現了非凡的奉獻精神和對居民的關懷。
We lost only two homes to the fires, which was thanks in part to the scattered nature of our portfolio that provides a built-in risk mitigant. Yet the more important victory was ensuring all of our residents and associates remain safe. And I extend my deepest gratitude to our LA-based team, first responders, and all those who worked tirelessly during this challenging time.
我們只在火災中損失了兩所房屋,這在一定程度上要歸功於我們投資組合的分散性,這種性質提供了內在的風險緩解機制。然而,更重要的勝利是確保我們所有居民和同事的安全。我向我們駐洛杉磯的團隊、急救人員以及所有在這段艱難時期不知疲倦工作的人們表示最深切的感謝。
Moving on now to same-store results. I'm happy to report strong fourth quarter performance with NOI growth of 4.7% year over year. This result was driven by core revenue growth of 2.7% and a 1.5% reduction in core operating expenses, demonstrating our continued focus on operational efficiency.
現在來看看同店業績。我很高興地報告第四季業績表現強勁,淨營業收入年增 4.7%。這一結果得益於核心收入成長 2.7% 以及核心營運費用減少 1.5%,顯示我們持續專注於營運效率。
For the full year 2024, we delivered NOI growth of 4.6% based on core revenue growth of 4.3% and core operating expense growth of 3.7%. Notably, our property tax expense growth of 5.8% year over year was in line with our latest expectations and brought a welcome return to a more normal growth rate following two years of larger increases.
2024 年全年,我們實現淨營業收入成長 4.6%,基於核心收入成長 4.3% 和核心營運費用成長 3.7%。值得注意的是,我們的房產稅支出年增 5.8%,符合我們最新的預期,在連續兩年大幅成長後,成功回歸到更正常的成長率。
Overall, our results underscore our differentiated performance within the residential REIT sector that we believe our resident-focused approach helps to provide. During 2024, that included annual turnover of just 22.6%, average length of stay of approximately 38 months, same-store average occupancy above 97%, and a full year blended rent growth of 3.9%.
總體而言,我們的業績凸顯了我們在住宅房地產投資信託基金領域的差異化表現,我們相信以居民為中心的做法有助於實現這一目標。2024 年,年營業額僅 22.6%,平均入住時間約 38 個月,同店平均入住率超過 97%,全年綜合租金成長率為 3.9%。
Turning now to our leasing performance. For the fourth quarter, we achieved same-store blended rent growth of 2.3% year over year based on a 4.2% renewal rate growth and a negative 2.2% new lease rate growth.
現在來談談我們的租賃業績。第四季度,基於續約率成長 4.2% 和新租賃率成長-2.2%,我們實現了同店綜合租金年增 2.3%。
As Dallas mentioned earlier, we've seen a healthy improvement in same-store leasing as we moved into 2025 and more recently kicked off our spring leasing season. As we would expect this time of year, new lease rent growth has re accelerated and was positive here in February while renewal rent growth has remained strong in the mid-5s for the past couple of months.
正如達拉斯之前提到的,隨著我們進入 2025 年並最近開啟春季租賃季,我們看到同店租賃出現了健康的改善。正如我們在今年這個時候所預期的那樣,新租約租金增長再次加速,2 月份為正值,而續約租金增長在過去幾個月中一直保持強勁,保持在 5% 左右的水平。
Quarter to date, including January and preliminary February results, average occupancy rose to 97% and blended lease rate growth climbed to 3.5%. While Jon will discuss more details of our 2025 guidance with you in a moment, I'd like to share some color around our leasing expectations for the year.
本季迄今為止,包括 1 月和 2 月的初步結果,平均入住率上升至 97%,綜合租賃率成長率上升至 3.5%。雖然喬恩稍後會與您討論我們 2025 年指導的更多細節,但我想分享一些有關我們今年租賃預期的資訊。
We anticipate our same-store new lease rent growth will continue to accelerate through April or May with renewals and average occupancy moderating somewhat as we enter the summer months before improving again towards the last few months of the year.
我們預計,同店新租約租金成長將在 4 月或 5 月繼續加速,進入夏季後續約和平均入住率將有所緩和,然後在今年最後幾個月再次改善。
Overall, we expect full year same-store blended rent growth in the mid-3s and average occupancy of 96.5% at the midpoint, effectively finalizing our return to a more normal pre-pandemic levels.
總體而言,我們預計全年同店綜合租金成長率將在 3% 左右,平均入住率將在中點達到 96.5%,從而有效地最終恢復到疫情前的正常水平。
Before I close, I'd like to take a moment to congratulate Tim Lobner on his promotion to Chief Operating Officer. Tim joined Invitation Home shortly after it was founded in 2012, most recently serving as Executive Vice President and Head of Field Operations.
最後,我想花點時間祝賀蒂姆·洛布納晉升為營運長。蒂姆於 2012 年 Invitation Home 成立後不久加入,最近擔任執行副總裁兼現場營運主管。
Many of you have met Tim at recent investor conferences and know he's a seasoned leader with unmatched talent for customer care, operations management, and efficiency. Following Tim's promotion to COO next week, I'll remain in my role as President, allowing me to focus even more on our strategic plans for growth.
你們中的許多人在最近的投資者會議上見過蒂姆,並且知道他是一位經驗豐富的領導者,在客戶服務、營運管理和效率方面擁有無與倫比的才能。下週蒂姆升任營運長後,我將繼續擔任總裁一職,這樣我就可以更專注於我們的策略成長計畫。
Together with Tim and the entire leadership team, we're excited for the year ahead with great appreciation for our outstanding associates in the field who remain focused on leasing execution, disciplined cost management, and providing the exceptional service that our residents expect.
我們與蒂姆和整個領導團隊一起對未來的一年感到興奮,並非常感謝我們在該領域的傑出同事,他們仍然專注於租賃執行、嚴格的成本管理以及提供我們的居民期望的卓越服務。
This is truly fundamental to our success in the achievement of our goals.
這對我們成功實現目標至關重要。
Thank you for bringing your best every day.
感謝您每天都竭盡全力。
With that, I'll turn it over to Jon to discuss our financial results in more detail.
接下來,我將把主題交給喬恩來更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Thanks, Charles.
謝謝,查爾斯。
Today, I'll cover the following three topics. First, an update on our balance sheet and liquidity. Second, our fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results. And third, the introduction of our 2025 guidance and assumptions.
今天,我將討論以下三個主題。首先,更新一下我們的資產負債表和流動性。第二,我們的第四季和2024年全年財務表現。第三,介紹我們的2025年指導和假設。
I'll start with our balance sheet. At year end 2024, we had a robust liquidity position of nearly $1.4 billion comprised of unrestricted cash on the balance sheet and undrawn revolver capacity. Our year end net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 5.3 times, just below our targeted range of 5.5 times to 6 times.
我先從我們的資產負債表開始。截至 2024 年底,我們的流動資金狀況強勁,接近 14 億美元,包括資產負債表上的無限現金和未提取的循環信貸額度。我們年底的淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 5.3 倍,略低於我們的目標範圍 5.5 倍至 6 倍。
Over the last several years, we've made substantial progress in optimizing our debt structure. Today, over 83% of our total debt is unsecured. Nearly 90% of our wholly owned homes are unencumbered, and over 91% of our total debt is either fixed rate or swapped to fixed rate.
過去幾年,我們在優化債務結構方面取得了實質進展。今天,我們的總債務中超過 83% 是無擔保的。我們全資擁有的房屋中幾乎有 90% 是無抵押的,我們的總債務中超過 91% 是固定利率或轉換為固定利率。
I'm also pleased to note enhanced transparency regarding our swap book through a new addition to our supplemental, which is posted to the Investor Relations section of our website. Our new Schedule 2D provides detail around our active swaps as of year end, as well as forward starting swaps through 2026, along with our swaps weighted average strike rates.
我還很高興地註意到,透過在我們網站的「投資者關係」部分發布新的補充內容,我們的掉期帳簿的透明度得到了提高。我們的新附表 2D 提供了截至年底的活躍掉期、截至 2026 年的遠期掉期以及掉期加權平均執行利率的詳細資訊。
We believe our swap book positions us well for the foreseeable future with the vast majority of our floating rate debt locked in at attractive fixed rates for the next several years. Next, I'll cover our fourth quarter results. Total revenues grew 5.6% to $659 million in the fourth quarter, and property operating costs were slightly lower year over year at $228 million, a testament to our team's cost controls.
我們相信,我們的掉期帳簿在可預見的未來將為我們帶來良好的定位,因為未來幾年我們的絕大多數浮動利率債務都將鎖定在有吸引力的固定利率上。接下來,我將介紹我們第四季的業績。第四季總營收成長 5.6% 至 6.59 億美元,物業營運成本較去年同期略有下降至 2.28 億美元,證明了我們團隊的成本控制。
This translated into strong year over year growth in our fourth quarter results, with core FFO per share up 5.9% and AFFO per share up 8.9%. For the full year 2024, we delivered 6.4% core FFO growth per share and 6.7% AFFO growth per share.
這意味著我們第四季業績年增 10,每股核心 FFO 成長 5.9%,每股 AFFO 成長 8.9%。2024 年全年,我們實現每股核心 FFO 成長 6.4%,每股 AFFO 成長 6.7%。
Looking ahead now to 2025, we've introduced our full year guidance ranges with core FFO in a range of $1.88 to $1.94 per share, AFFO between $1.58 and $1.64 per share, and same-store NOI growth in a range of 1% to 3%.
展望 2025 年,我們推出了全年指引範圍,核心 FFO 在每股 1.88 美元至 1.94 美元之間,AFFO 在每股 1.58 美元至 1.64 美元之間,同店 NOI 成長率在 1% 至 3% 之間。
Our guidance also anticipates $600 million in wholly owned acquisitions at the midpoint, primarily funded through dispositions of $500 million at the midpoint. The complete details of our 2025 guidance and core FFO bridge from 2024 to our 2025 guidance midpoint are available in last night's release.
我們的指引也預計中期將有 6 億美元的全資收購,主要透過中期 5 億美元的處置來提供資金。我們的 2025 年指引以及從 2024 年到 2025 年指引中點的核心 FFO 橋樑的完整詳細資訊可在昨晚的發布中找到。
In summary, we enter 2025 in a very healthy financial position with a strong balance sheet, compelling operating metrics, and a clear strategic vision focused on growth. Our strong liquidity position and largely unencumbered asset base provide us with tremendous flexibility to pursue compelling growth opportunities while maintaining our disciplined approach to capital allocation.
總而言之,我們將以非常健康的財務狀況進入 2025 年,擁有強勁的資產負債表、引人注目的營運指標和專注於成長的清晰策略願景。我們強大的流動性狀況和基本上不受阻礙的資產基礎為我們提供了極大的靈活性,使我們在追求引人注目的成長機會的同時,保持嚴謹的資本配置方式。
More than ever, we're focused on providing genuine care to our residents and delivering superior value for our shareholders.
我們比以往任何時候都更加專注於為我們的居民提供真誠的關懷,並為我們的股東提供卓越的價值。
Operator, we're now ready to open the line for questions.
接線員,我們現在可以開始回答問題了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員指令)
Eric Wolfe, Citibank.
花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫。
Eric Wolfe - Analyst
Eric Wolfe - Analyst
I think you said that your blended spreads were already in the mid-3s in February. So I was just curious why you're not expecting that to accelerate a bit further since I think your guidance is based on a similar level throughout the year.
我記得您說過,您的混合利差在 2 月就已經在 3% 左右了。所以我只是好奇為什麼你不期望這個速度進一步加速,因為我認為你的指導是基於全年的類似水平。
And I think Dallas also mentioned that you're taking sort of a cautious approach to guidance. So I don't know if that's sort of what you meant by that or he was referring to something else.
我認為拉斯也提到你對指導採取了一種謹慎的態度。所以我不知道你是不是這個意思或他指的是別的。
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Yeah. Thanks, Eric.
是的。謝謝,埃里克。
We are anticipating blended rent growth for 2025 in the mid-3s. So as you recall, the typical seasonal curve is we see acceleration and new lease rent growth here in the first part of the year. As turnover picks up in the summer months, we see a little bit of a step back.
我們預計 2025 年混合租金成長率將達到 3% 左右。所以正如你所記得的,典型的季節性曲線是我們在今年上半年看到加速和新租賃租金成長。隨著夏季營業額的回升,我們看到了一點倒退。
And then sort of in the back part of the year, some moderation, potentially some re-acceleration. We do feel good that we've seen acceleration each month since December. And I think overall, we're just trying to take a very measured approach to 2025.
然後在今年後半段,會出現一些緩和,甚至可能重新加速。我們確實很高興看到,自 12 月以來,每個月的成長都在加速。我認為總的來說,我們只是想採取一種非常謹慎的方式來實現 2025 年的目標。
The reality is there are some supply pressures. There is some supply out there that needs to be absorbed. We anticipate that the absorption of that supply will have a flow through impact on occupancy. So as you saw, midpoint of our range is 96.5%. That assumes that turnover for 2025 is generally similar to 2024, maybe a skosh higher.
現實情況是存在一些供應壓力。有些供應需要被吸收。我們預計,這些供應的吸收將對入住率產生影響。正如您所看到的,我們範圍的中點是 96.5%。這假設 2025 年的營業額與 2024 年大致相似,甚至可能略高。
But that the biggest impact on occupancy comes from slightly longer days on market as we go out and try to achieve the best rate growth we can.
但對入住率的最大影響來自於我們努力實現最佳的房價成長,而入住時間的延長也對飯店造成了一定的影響。
Operator
Operator
Michael Goldsmith, UBS.
瑞銀的麥可‧戈德史密斯。
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Michael Goldsmith - Analyst
Dallas, in your opening remarks, you talked about how new home deliveries were impacting last year, but you're starting to see some early signs of improvement. So can you walk us through what you're seeing right now? And then also what you're expecting from the new home deliveries through 2025?
達拉斯,在您的開場白中,您談到了去年新房交付的影響,但您開始看到一些早期改善的跡象。那麼您能向我們介紹一下您現在看到的情況嗎?那麼,您對 2025 年新房交付情況有何期望?
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Hey, great question.
是的。嘿,好問題。
To double click on something that Jon said, we're certainly seeing some re-acceleration as we head into the spring leasing season. We've seen supplies start to moderate coming off sort of peaks last summer, as we called out when we started to see some of these real supply pressures coming into the market.
再次強調喬恩所說的話,隨著春季租賃季節的臨近,我們確實看到了一些重新加速的趨勢。當我們開始看到一些真正的供應壓力進入市場時,我們就發出了這樣的警告,我們看到供應量在去年夏天從高峰開始回落。
Now there is some variability amongst markets. We'd expect that there's still some pressures in Florida and Phoenix and some of those markets that had sort of easier barrier to entry in terms of new development with a lot of the starts in '20 and '21 sort of feeding into the system.
現在市場之間存在一些變化。我們預計佛羅裡達州和鳳凰城仍會面臨一些壓力,這些市場在新的開發項目進入門檻較低,2020 年和 2021 年開工的許多項目都將進入該系統。
We're optimistic as we pay attention to both deliveries and starts that this number probably most likely continues to get better for us. But we've even listened to some of our counterparts with the public homebuilders and some of their calls as well as our discussion with regionals that we would just expect that there may be a bit more of spec inventory as mortgage rates stay elevated.
我們很樂觀,因為我們專注於交付量和開工量,這個數字很可能會繼續變得更好。但是,我們甚至聽取了一些公共房屋建築商的同行、他們的一些電話以及我們與地區專家的討論,我們預計,隨著抵押貸款利率維持在高位,投機庫存可能會增加。
Now all this is slight headwinds for a new lease, but it's terrific for our renewals business. So we'll continue to anchor on the renewal side of the house, which has been close to 80% of our leasing volume for last year. And be as aggressive as we can on rate on the new lease side.
現在,這一切對新租約來說只是輕微的阻力,但對我們的續約業務來說卻是一件好事。因此,我們將繼續專注於房屋續租業務,這部分業務占我們去年租賃量的近80%。在新租賃方面,我們會盡可能積極地提高利率。
We sort of have to take what the market's giving us, but the skies are a little bit more clearer now than they were, say, last summer.
我們必須接受市場給我們的東西,但現在的天空比去年夏天要晴朗。
Operator
Operator
Daniel Tricarico, Scotiabank.
加拿大豐業銀行的 Daniel Tricarico。
Daniel Tricarico - Analyst
Daniel Tricarico - Analyst
For either Dallas or Scott, I wanted to ask about your West Coast markets. First, have you seen any increase in activity in SoCal since the fires earlier in the year? And is there any incremental impact from that on your guidance that you can quantify?
對於達拉斯或斯科特,我想詢問你們西海岸市場的情況。首先,自今年早些時候發生火災以來,你是否發現南加州的活動增加?這對你的指導是否有任何可以量化的增量影響?
And second with the West Coast being -- you're seeing stronger growth today, there seems to be an increase in confidence in the demand recovery out there as well, potentially better business backdrop too. So have you re-evaluated being a net seller?
其次,就西海岸而言——如今我們看到了更強勁的成長勢頭,似乎對需求復甦的信心也有所增強,商業背景也可能更好。那麼,您是否重新評估了自己作為淨賣家的身份?
Charles Young - President, Chief Operating Officer
Charles Young - President, Chief Operating Officer
So this is Charles. I'll take it.
這就是查爾斯。我要買它。
In terms of your initial question around the impact on guidance for SoCal, really no material impact. If you look at our NorCal and SoCal markets, we run really high occupancy. The fires are very unfortunate, but for us, we only had two homes that were lost.
關於您最初提出的有關對 SoCal 指導的影響的問題,答案是確實沒有實質影響。如果你看看我們的北加州和南加州市場,你會發現我們的入住率非常高。火災非常不幸,但對我們來說,只有兩棟房屋被燒毀。
You got to remember our book is a little further away from where the fires were located. And at the time when we were running high 97 occupancy in SoCal, there were only 50 homes that were available on the market at the time.
你必須記住,我們的書距離火災發生地點稍遠。當我們在南加州的入住率高達 97 人時,市場上只有 50 套房屋可供出售。
And so while yeah, there was a little bit more demand, it didn't really have a huge impact on how we're running.
因此,雖然需求確實增加了一點,但並沒有對我們的營運產生很大的影響。
That book generally runs at a high occupancy because there's a lack of supply in that market. And we're also doing really well on rate there on both the new lease and the renewal side.
由於該市場供應不足,該書的銷售量通常很高。我們在新租約和續約方面的利率也都表現得非常出色。
So it's been really solid.
所以它確實很堅固。
I don't know if you want to discuss, Dallas going into the dispositions.
我不知道您是否想討論達拉斯的處置方式。
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Look, it's a really great question on how to think about accretively recycling capital. Scott and I spent a lot of time looking at ways to create, call it highest and best use cost of capital for the company. And we've certainly had a successful year in '24 selling roughly call it 1,500 homes on balance sheet for proceeds of around $600 million.
看,關於如何思考增值回收資本,這是一個非常好的問題。史考特和我花了很多時間尋找為公司創造最高和最佳資本成本的方法。2024 年我們確實取得了成功,共出售了大約 1,500 套房屋,收益約為 6 億美元。
And those are typically sort of priced around a [4] cap in today's market. And then Scott's done a nice job of accretively reinvesting that capital closer to a [6]. And so I think as you think about Southern California specifically to your question, there will likely always be opportunities for us to continue to refine that portfolio.
在現今的市場上,這些股票的價格一般都在 [4] 上限左右。然後斯科特很好地完成了增值工作,將這些資本重新投資到更接近[6]。因此,我認為,當您具體考慮南加州的問題時,我們很可能總是有機會繼續完善這個投資組合。
But it's really at our discretion based on a total return model as we look at the higher expected rents that Charles just talked about in a business that's pretty automatic in terms of our expectations around renewals and new lease and weighing that out with where we see sort of appetite on a risk adjusted basis.
但這實際上取決於我們根據總回報模型的判斷,因為我們考慮到查爾斯剛才談到的更高的預期租金,而這在續約和新租約的預期方面是相當自動化的,並且會根據我們在風險調整後的需求進行權衡。
And so for us, we're a total return investor. It's important to remember that we don't look at things in just a binary bubble all the time, either on yield or on total value, but we're looking to accretively kind of grab both over time in distance.
所以對我們來說,我們是一位總回報投資者。重要的是要記住,我們不會一直只從二元泡沫的角度來看待事物,無論是收益率還是總價值,但我們希望隨著時間的推移,以增值的方式抓住這兩者。
Operator
Operator
Jana Galan, Bank of America.
美國銀行的 Jana Galan。
Jana Galan - Analyst
Jana Galan - Analyst
I was hoping if we could -- Dallas, following up on that, talk a little bit more about the capital allocation and the transaction market, kind of what you're seeing right now? Is it primarily portfolios or BTR communities, or is there a little bit more of an opportunity and kind of like the one off MLS sales?
我希望我們可以-達拉斯,接下來,能再多談一下資本配置和交易市場,您現在看到的是什麼?它主要是投資組合還是 BTR 社區,或者是否有更多的機會並且有點像一次性的 MLS 銷售?
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'll take it. This is Dallas. Let me take the first part of this and I'll ask Scott to provide some color.
我要買它。這是達拉斯。讓我來談談第一部分,然後我會請斯科特提供一些細節。
From a high level, we're absolutely focused on bringing more and more new product into the portfolio through these builder partnerships and structures that we're seeing, candidly evolve and get better and even create ways for us on a risk adjusted basis to have less capital out the door early but to lock ourselves into some really good opportunities over time.
從高層次來看,我們絕對專注於透過這些我們正在看到的建設者合作夥伴關係和結構將越來越多的新產品引入投資組合,坦率地發展和變得更好,甚至在風險調整的基礎上為我們創造方法,以便在早期減少資本支出,但隨著時間的推移,我們將自己鎖定一些真正好的機會。
You'll see that even in the fourth quarter, we backed off of a few opportunities because we felt some market dynamic shifting. And that was at basically little to no risk to the company. We love the fact that we're kind of asset light in this model, but driving towards called untrended sixes.
您會發現,即使在第四季度,我們也放棄了一些機會,因為我們感覺到市場動態發生了一些變化。這對公司來說基本上沒有什麼風險。我們喜歡這種模式,即我們採用輕資產模式,但同時又朝著所謂的「無趨勢六」方向發展。
I'll ask Scott to provide more color on what he's seeing on the ground right now between sort of stabilized transactions, bulk, and what really is nothing in market in terms of one-off acquisitions.
我將請斯科特進一步介紹他目前所看到的穩定交易、大宗交易以及市場上不存在的一次性收購的情況。
Scott Eisen - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Scott Eisen - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
And obviously, in terms of where we are sourcing deal flow right now, as Dallas said, we're not really seeing very much on the single asset MLS market. We absolutely are evaluating bulk portfolios. We have obviously institutional sellers with whom we've engaged.
顯然,就我們目前的交易流來源而言,正如達拉斯所說,我們在單一資產 MLS 市場上並沒有看到太多這樣的交易流。我們絕對正在評估批量投資組合。我們顯然已經與機構賣家進行了合作。
Obviously, in terms of where we see that market, we've seen some opportunities on small scale to buy small pieces of bulk portfolios. But we absolutely are seeing deal flow there. We've actually seen a very nice deal flow of kind of end of month or end of quarter tapes from the builders in terms of opportunities.
顯然,就我們所看到的市場而言,我們已經看到了一些小規模購買少量批量投資組合的機會。但我們確實看到了那裡的交易流。就機會而言,我們實際上已經看到來自建築商的月底或季末交易流非常好。
I think we see some yield there that we like, albeit the hit rate is obviously very low on a percentage win basis. But in selective areas and selective communities, we've seen opportunity. We're absolutely seeing deal flow in terms of stabilized BTR communities.
我認為我們看到了一些我們喜歡的收益,儘管以百分比勝率計算的命中率顯然很低。但在特定的地區和特定的社區,我們看到了機會。我們確實看到了穩定 BTR 社區方面的交易流。
We're being very selective in terms of locations and yields that we're targeting. But we're definitely seeing institutional sellers and financials sponsors to build product in the 2021 time frame that want to get liquidity. And then we continue to engage in strategic dialogue with our national builder partners in terms of targeting and executing forward purchase build projects.
我們對目標地點和收益非常挑剔。但我們確實看到機構賣家和金融贊助商在 2021 年期間打造希望獲得流動性的產品。然後,我們繼續與國家建築商合作夥伴就目標和執行前瞻性購買建設項目進行策略對話。
As Dallas said, we've got about 2,000 in the pipeline on a forward basis. And we'd like to add more. So we continue to look at all of these channels and we're trying to pick the right channels where we think there's the best risk adjusted return for us as a publicly traded company.
正如達拉斯所說,我們目前有大約 2,000 個預備名單。我們還想添加更多內容。因此,我們將繼續關注所有這些管道,並嘗試選擇正確的管道,我們認為作為一家上市公司,這些管道可以帶來最佳的風險調整回報。
Operator
Operator
Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.
富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。
James Feldman - Analyst
James Feldman - Analyst
So Dallas, at the outset, you talked about looking for new and innovative structures for growth, entering possibly new markets. You guys added Tim to the C-suite. I think Charles commented that he's going to be focused on growth. Scott obviously is focused on growth too.
所以達拉斯,一開始你談到了尋找新的和創新的成長結構,進入可能的新市場。你們將蒂姆加入到了高階主管。我認為查爾斯曾表示他將專注於成長。斯科特顯然也關注成長。
Can you just help us better understand the management changes? Exactly the different roles of everyone on the team now? And then also do you expect to see more changes ahead for the team?
您能幫助我們更理解管理變革嗎?現在團隊中每個人的角色到底有什麼不同?那麼您是否仍預期球隊未來還會發生更多變化?
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Happy to answer those questions. Thanks for asking.
是的。很高興回答這些問題。謝謝你的提問。
First of all, it's going to be a luxury of riches for me to have Charles freed up to work on a few more strategic things and areas of the business that we see are going to continue to grow for the company over time. Scott's doing a really nice job in building out sort of our new product pipelines and everything that centers around call it traditional SFR growth.
首先,讓查爾斯騰出時間去處理一些更具策略性的事情和業務領域對我來說是一種奢侈的享受,我們認為這些事情和業務領域將隨著時間的推移繼續為公司帶來成長。斯科特在建立我們的新產品線以及圍繞傳統 SFR 增長的一切方面做得非常出色。
Charles and I have our eye on a number of opportunities, including ones we're already doing like 3PM and and sort of our strategies around how to make the platform more efficient over time that both Charles and I will get the opportunity to work on together.
查爾斯和我關注了很多機會,包括我們已經在做的,例如 3PM,以及關於如何隨著時間的推移使平台變得更加高效的策略,查爾斯和我將有機會一起努力。
Secondly, Tim's been in the weeds on the business for a long time on the cost side of our house, really rehab, turn and maintenance for basically a decade. Last year, Charles made the decision in concert with me and the rest of management to give Tim a little bit more flexibility to get more involved on the property management and leasing side of the house.
其次,蒂姆在我們房屋的成本方面已經忙得不可開交了很長時間,實際上修復、改造和維護基本上有十年了。去年,查爾斯與我以及其他管理人員共同決定給予蒂姆更多的靈活性,讓他更多地參與物業管理和租賃方面的事情。
And it just makes more sense because so much of our business is sort of a sweet combination between being centralized and the boots on the ground part of our organization that is high touch in the field. And that transition went really seamless, I would say through most of last year.
這更有意義,因為我們的大部分業務都是集中化和組織中與現場高接觸部分的完美結合。我想說,在去年的大部分時間裡,這種轉變確實進行得很順利。
I think for Charles and I, the goal is how do we widen the breadth of the organization without having to reinvent the wheel. And you saw, we did last year in adding 20,000 plus new units to our 3PM business. We're excited about what that business is not only because it adds itself to extra efficiencies for our partners, but it creates better margin enhancing profile for our business.
我認為對查爾斯和我來說,我們的目標是如何擴大組織的廣度而不需要重新發明輪子。你知道,去年我們為 3PM 業務增加了 20,000 多個新單位。我們對這項業務感到興奮,不僅因為它為我們的合作夥伴增加了額外的效率,而且還為我們的業務創造了更好的利潤提升條件。
We see some opportunities there. We're looking at some things around AI and technology that we'd like to implement with a little bit more of pace and scale and focus. And candidly, I think having Charles as a partner to work on some of these things with me will allow us to go quicker, create more innovation, and lend another set of senior strategic thinking around the things that we're working on.
我們在那裡看到了一些機會。我們正在研究人工智慧和技術方面的一些事情,我們希望能夠以更快的速度、更大的規模和更大的重點來實施它們。坦白說,我認為讓查爾斯作為合作夥伴與我一起處理這些事情將使我們進展得更快,創造更多創新,並為我們正在進行的工作提供另一套高級戰略思想。
I have no plans of going anywhere, nor does Charles. And so the goal is to just keep our heads down and keep trying to find ways to create alpha for both our shareholders and better opportunities for our residents.
我沒有去任何地方的計劃,查爾斯也沒有。因此,我們的目標就是埋頭苦幹,不斷尋找方法為股東創造收益,提供居民更好的機會。
Operator
Operator
Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Austin Wurschmidt,KeyBanc 資本市場。
Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst
Austin Wurschmidt - Analyst
Just expanding I guess a little bit on the last question. I mean I guess how meaningful and growth enhancing do you think some of these projects that you're pursuing and kind of adding outside the SFR box?
我想稍微擴展一下最後一個問題。我的意思是,您認為您正在進行的這些項目以及在 SFR 框架之外添加的一些項目有多大意義和對增長有多大促進作用?
And then separately, you hit on I think for the first time in your prepared remarks about evaluating some new markets. And so just curious if you can share any additional detail about your ability to gain immediate scale if you were to enter a new market similar to what we saw you do in Nashville last year.
然後另外,我想這是您在準備好的演講中第一次談到對一些新市場的評估。所以我很好奇,如果您進入一個類似於去年我們在納許維爾看到的新市場,您是否可以分享更多關於您獲得立即擴大規模的能力的細節?
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Yeah. This is Jon.
是的。這是喬恩。
I'll start off by just I think framing up how substantial some of these opportunities have already been for us. So in 2024, our third-party management businesses contributed about $0.09 per share to core FFO and AFFO.
首先我想先概括一下這些機會對我們來說有多重要。因此,在 2024 年,我們的第三方管理業務為核心 FFO 和 AFFO 貢獻了約每股 0.09 美元。
And for 2025, we anticipate that between our JVs and our third-party management business, that'll contribute an incremental $0.02 a share. So I think very clearly that the third-party management business has been a really solid contributor to capital light earnings growth, enhanced scale, better efficiencies, which I think you'll continue to see in terms of the cost related to managing our book.
到 2025 年,我們預計我們的合資企業和第三方管理業務將為每股貢獻 0.02 美元的增量。因此,我非常清楚地認為,第三方管理業務對輕資本獲利成長、規模擴大、效率提高做出了真正堅實的貢獻,我認為您將繼續在與管理我們的帳簿相關的成本方面看到這一點。
So we think that has been absolutely a needle mover and we're eager to try to find new opportunities that will continue to move the needle.
因此,我們認為這絕對是一個推動力,我們渴望嘗試尋找能夠繼續推動這一進程的新機會。
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'll jump in on the second part of your question.
我將直接回答你問題的第二部分。
This is Dallas, and I don't want to put Scott on the hot seat on a quarterly call, but we're definitely doing work on how to expand our current markets. How to think about new markets. You've heard us talk about markets in the past that we love, that we aren't in today, like Salt Lake City.
這是達拉斯,我不想讓史考特在季度電話會議上陷入困境,但我們確實在努力擴大我們現有的市場。如何思考新市場。您曾聽我們談論過我們過去喜歡但如今已不再進入的市場,例如鹽湖城。
We talked about San Antonio in the past. Nashville getting a little bit more scale. And we've done the latter too. I think we would like to find ways to both widen and extend our advantage of scale in the markets that we're currently in, I would say generally almost all of them.
我們過去曾談論過聖安東尼奧。納許維爾的規模越來越大。我們也做了後者。我認為,我們希望找到方法來擴大和延伸我們目前所處的市場的規模優勢,我想說一般來說幾乎所有市場都是如此。
And then there's probably a market or two over the next year to five that we could see ourselves making a strategic investment. And we don't take it lightly if we go into the market because we want to offer the same services.
未來一到五年內,我們可能會對一兩個市場進行策略性投資。如果我們進入該市場,我們不會掉以輕心,因為我們想提供相同的服務。
And I think some of the things that we talked about a second ago around AI, automation, we've already seen that in some of our new leasing business. We're implementing some of that in our renewals business today is allowing us to leverage our leadership team, in example of Charles, to be able to start to think about some different things in ways that we can grow our company over time.
我認為,我們剛才談到的有關人工智慧、自動化的一些事情已經在我們的一些新的租賃業務中看到了。我們今天在續約業務中實施了其中的一些舉措,這使我們能夠利用我們的領導團隊(以查爾斯為例),開始思考一些不同的事情,以便讓我們的公司隨著時間的推移而發展。
So all of the benefits of technology and the move to digital automation to Jon's point, being able to flex and extend the infrastructure of the platform are going to allow Invitation Homes over a long run rate to create more efficient returns on our own capital and those of our partners.
因此,正如 Jon 所說,技術的所有好處以及向數位自動化的轉變,能夠靈活地擴展平台的基礎設施,將使 Invitation Homes 從長遠來看能夠為我們自己的資本和合作夥伴的資本創造更有效的回報。
Operator
Operator
Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho.
亨德爾聖朱斯特(Haendel St. Juste)、瑞穗。
Haendel St. Juste - Analyst
Haendel St. Juste - Analyst
Dallas, I guess I'm curious how you're thinking about the sustainable long term same-store revenue run rate for this business. Seems to me that we could be nearing a low point for new lease pricing this year, especially if supply pressures could be abating.
達拉斯,我很好奇你如何看待這項業務可持續的長期同店收入運作率。在我看來,今年新的租賃價格可能即將接近低點,特別是如果供應壓力可能減輕的話。
So if renewal pricing can stay sticky here around 4% this year could potentially be a trough year for same-store revenue in your blend. So I'd love to hear how you are thinking about this year's same-store revenue outlook in context of a longer term core growth opportunity for the portfolio.
因此,如果續約價格能夠保持在 4% 左右,那麼今年可能會成為您所在品牌同店收入的低潮年。因此,我很想聽聽您如何從投資組合的長期核心成長機會的角度來看待今年的同店收入前景。
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Great question, Haendel. And I'll emphasize something Jon said earlier on, which is we're taking a measured approach as we go into the year. Just knowing that there are some supply, I would say some soft kind of headwinds around supply that we flagged six months ago.
很好的問題,韓德爾。我要強調喬恩之前說過的一點,那就是我們在進入新的一年時將採取一種謹慎的態度。只要知道有一些供應,我就會說,我們在六個月前就標記過供應方面存在一些溫和的阻力。
But to your point, we're seeing good velocity. And we also know that it's probably unrealistic to stay in the 97%-plus occupancy sort of run rate forever. So we have rational expectations that sort of comes in and moderates a bit and you see that in our guide as well.
但正如您所說,我們看到了良好的速度。我們也知道,永遠保持 97% 以上的入住率可能是不切實際的。因此,我們有理性的預期,這種預期會有所緩和,您也可以在我們的指南中看到這一點。
I think as you go back, Handel, and you think about the business since we went public in 2017, renewals have generally been outside of the COVID years pretty sticky at around 4% to 5% as you think about it on a blend.
漢德爾,我想當你回顧一下,想想我們自 2017 年上市以來的業務,你會發現,除了 COVID 年份之外,續約率通常都相當穩定,大約在 4% 到 5% 左右,如果你考慮到混合情況的話。
We've had an unbelievable run in terms of rate in this country which is driven by a lot of different things, as you know. And new lease is always going to be sort of a story around supply and expectations around future deliveries and how you optimize optimize your lease expiration curve.
如你所知,我們國家的成長速度令人難以置信,這是由許多不同因素所推動的。新的租約總是圍繞著供應和未來交付的預期以及如何優化租約到期曲線。
We've done some really great work over the last six months on our lease expiration curve. We feel like we're in a pretty defendable position going into the year this summer.
過去六個月我們在租賃到期曲線方面做了一些非常出色的工作。我們覺得,進入今年夏天,我們的防守地位相當穩固。
And so we'd expect that we can lean a little harder on rate hopefully. But we got to see what the market's willing to give it. It's different environment than it was pre-pandemic. It was a lot more predictable in terms of deliveries. And I do think as the deliveries come down and all the data that we follow, it suggest that deliveries are going to be somewhere between 50% and say, 70% down this year versus last.
因此,我們希望能夠在利率上稍微傾斜一些。但我們必須看看市場願意給予什麼。現在的環境與疫情之前不同。從交付方面來看,這更加可預測。我確實認為,隨著交付量的下降以及我們追蹤的所有數據,今年的交付量將比去年下降 50% 到 70% 之間。
But that doesn't take into consideration starts. And while there's still a relatively low cost of capital in the environment, there certainly are developers and operators to the point that Scott made earlier that are bringing product to the market, that are fighting to get full and do create some tougher operating environments, particularly in the Sun Belt right now.
但這並未考慮到開始。儘管目前的資本成本仍然相對較低,但正如斯科特之前提到的,肯定有一些開發商和營運商正在將產品推向市場,他們正在努力實現目標,並確實創造了一些更艱難的營運環境,尤其是目前的陽光地帶。
But I would just take a step back. And as much as we're impressed with our rate of growth in the Midwest right now, we're still very long on our fundamental beliefs around the Sun Belt in the Southeast. All the demographic information suggests that we're going to see prolonged tenure of demand.
但我只想退一步。儘管我們對目前中西部地區的成長率印象深刻,但我們仍然非常看好東南部陽光地帶的基本前景。所有人口統計資訊表明,我們將看到需求的長期化。
We know that there's something like 12,000 to 13,000 people a day turning age 35. Our average customer today is right around 38 years old. All the profile of that customer has been pretty resilient over the last five to seven years.
我們知道每天大約有 12,000 到 13,000 人年滿 35 歲。我們今天的普通顧客年齡在 38 歲左右。過去五到七年來,該客戶的所有資料都保持著相當好的彈性。
So there's nothing in our business today that suggests that we need to change course, rethink our strategy, or invest in different parts of the country. In fact, maybe the opposite. While things are a little bit soft, we may actually look to extend our lead and scale and density in some of these markets while pricing softens so that we can be in a position to really capture a bull run as the supply side sort of works through itself.
因此,我們今天的業務並沒有任何跡象表明我們需要改變方向,重新考慮我們的策略,或在全國各地進行投資。事實上,也許恰恰相反。儘管情況有些疲軟,但我們實際上可能會尋求在定價走軟的同時擴大我們在其中一些市場的領先地位、規模和密度,以便我們能夠在供應方自行發揮作用時真正抓住牛市。
Operator
Operator
Rich Hightower, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的里奇‧海托爾 (Rich Hightower)。
Rich Hightower - Analyst
Rich Hightower - Analyst
Obviously, you covered a lot of ground today. But maybe just to pick up on a point that you just made, Dallas, in terms of the core renter demographic and maybe drawing a contrast between multi-family and single family.
顯然,你今天已經取得了很大的進步。但也許只是為了接續您剛才提出的觀點,達拉斯,就核心租屋者人口統計而言,也許可以對多戶住宅和單戶住宅進行比較。
I think there's kind of this emerging thesis that the core multi-family cohort is expanding for all sorts of socioeconomic reasons. And so one, do you agree with that thesis? And second, do you think that it makes it a little more of a zero-sum proposition between multi and single than maybe we had earlier appreciated or do you think it's -- the pie is big enough for everybody kind of to enjoy it for the next several years in that sense?
我認為有這樣一種新興的觀點:由於各種社會經濟原因,核心多戶型家庭群體正在不斷擴大。那麼,您同意這個論點嗎?其次,您是否認為這會比我們之前認識到的更像多戶家庭和單戶家庭之間的零和博弈,或者您是否認為——從這個意義上來說,這塊蛋糕足夠大,可以讓每個人在未來幾年內享受到它的好處?
Charles Young - President, Chief Operating Officer
Charles Young - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah. This is Charles.
是的。這是查爾斯。
Thanks for the question.
謝謝你的提問。
If I'm understanding the question, look, we think we're serving a unique part of the market that we have this opportunity. It's $1,000 more affordable to rent a home than it is to buy in today's market. We are three, four, five bedrooms. So we're serving families.
如果我理解了這個問題,那麼我們認為我們正在服務市場的一個獨特部分,我們有這個機會。在當今市場上,租房比買房便宜 1,000 美元。我們有三、四、五間臥室。因此我們為家庭提供服務。
The majority of our families, 60% have kids, have pets. And our portfolio whether it's our scattered portfolio or build to rent, it's around safe neighborhoods and good school districts. And so we have an opportunity to continue to serve that group, that demographic.
我們大多數的家庭(60%)都有孩子和寵物。我們的投資組合,無論是分散的投資組合還是建設出租的投資組合,都圍繞著安全的社區和良好的學區。因此我們有機會繼續為該群體、該人口提供服務。
We're seeing really good demand there. People are staying for 38 months and rising each quarter. The demand is healthy. We talked a little bit about the book, but we built back occupancy in Q4. And looking at where we are in January and February, we're seeing good absorption and good demand.
我們看到那裡的需求確實很好。人們的停留時間為 38 個月,每季的停留時間都會增加。需求是健康的。我們討論了一些關於這本書的內容,但我們在第四季度恢復了入住率。從一月和二月的情況來看,我們看到了良好的吸收量和需求。
And I think it really comes down to that we have some markets that are working through absorption. But our turnover is low, our renewal is high. And I think that's the differentiation of our product relative to multi-family.
我認為實際上我們的一些市場正在透過吸收來運作。但我們的營業額很低,更新率很高。我認為這是我們的產品相對於多戶型產品的區別。
And we like where we are and we're serving an ecosystem that's part of the business. And when you really look at it and compare it to multi-family on a price per square foot given that you're getting more space, bigger houses in and around school districts and job growth and demographics with the yard that the family goes in, there really is value that we are offering.
我們喜歡我們所處的位置並且我們正在服務作為業務一部分的生態系統。如果你認真審視它,並將其與多戶住宅的每平方英尺價格進行比較,考慮到你擁有更多的空間、學區內及週邊更大的房子、就業增長和家庭居住的院子的人口統計數據,你就會發現我們提供的服務確實具有價值。
And it's showing up given our occupancy. Yes, we're working through a little bit on the new lease rate. But when you think about renewals and how we're renewing right now, even in a period that is typically slower in Q4, we're seeing really good demand as we go in.
並且它顯示出了我們的佔用情況。是的,我們正在研究新的租賃費率。但是,當您考慮續約以及我們現在的續約方式時,即使在第四季度通常較為緩慢的時期,我們也看到了非常好的需求。
So we're working through it and we like our product and where we stand long term relative to multi.
所以我們正在努力解決這個問題,我們喜歡我們的產品以及我們在多元化方面的長期立場。
Operator
Operator
Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的亞當克萊默。
Derrick Metzler - Analyst
Derrick Metzler - Analyst
This is Derrick Metzler on for Adam.
這是代替亞當的德里克·梅茨勒。
Maybe if we could just double click on the same-store revenue growth assumptions a little bit. I don't know if you gave new and renewal leased expectations in that blended rate in the mid 3% range. And then it looks like your bad debt has been turning around 1% in 3Q and 4Q.
也許我們可以稍微雙擊同店營收成長假設。我不知道您是否給出了 3% 中間範圍內的混合利率的新租賃和續租預期。然後看起來你的壞帳在第三季和第四季已經回升至 1% 左右。
So just curious about the confidence in the improvement to 60 basis points, 90 basis points in '25.
所以只是好奇對於 25 年提升到 60 個基點、90 個基點的信心。
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Hey. It's Jon. Thanks for the question.
嘿。是喬恩。謝謝你的提問。
I think I'll start with bad debt. Our bad debt range reflects our expectation that we'll continue to see improvement in bad debt expense. But a degree of cautiousness about the rate at which that improvement will continue.
我想先從壞帳開始。我們的壞帳範圍反映了我們的預期,即壞帳費用將繼續改善。但對於這種改善持續的速度,人們仍需保持一定程度的謹慎。
As you correctly noted, 2024 was sort of a tale of two halves. We saw a real material improvement in the first half of last year. Then a little bit of a backup in the second half. I think the first half improvement was down to a number of markets where timelines in the court system started to shrink.
正如您正確指出的那樣,2024 年就像是兩個半場的故事。我們在去年上半年看到了真正的實質改善。然後在下半場稍微備份一下。我認為上半年的改善歸功於許多市場的司法系統時間開始縮短。
And then I think what we're seeing today is we still have a couple of free markets where the timelines remain elongated. Markets like Atlanta, the Carolinas, specifically Mecklenburg County, Chicago. It still takes quite a while to get some of these situations worked through the system.
我認為,我們今天看到的是,我們仍然有幾個自由市場,其時間表仍然被拉長。像是亞特蘭大、卡羅來納州、特別是梅克倫堡縣、芝加哥這樣的市場。透過系統解決其中一些情況仍需相當長的時間。
And so we just want to be cautious. So we do believe we'll continue to see improvement. We're really focused on collections. We're really focused on being as efficient as we can be. But we want to be mindful of kind of what that second half experience was last year.
因此我們只是想謹慎一點。因此我們確實相信我們將繼續看到進步。我們確實專注於收藏。我們真正注重的是盡可能提高效率。但我們要牢記去年下半年的經驗。
We did not give a guide around new versus renewal rate growth for 2025. And we're not going to do that, but feel very comfortable that the mid-3 blended guide incorporates sort of our expectation for renewal rate growth.
我們沒有提供 2025 年新車與續保率成長的指南。我們不會這樣做,但我們感到非常舒適的是,中間 3 個混合指南包含了我們對續約率成長的預期。
That continues to remain sticky sort of in that 4% to 5% range that Dallas talked about, high renewal rate. And then a typical seasonality curve that maybe looks a little bit different than it did pre-pandemic. But I think the pattern in terms of the quarterly trends really remains the same.
這一水平仍然保持在達拉斯所說的 4% 至 5% 的範圍內,即高續約率。然後,典型的季節性曲線可能看起來與大流行之前略有不同。但我認為季度趨勢的模式確實保持不變。
I would also note that as you look at 2025, I would expect that core revenue growth and NOI growth will be a little bit higher in the second half of the year than the first half of the year primarily due to how our quarterly comps shake out.
我還要指出的是,展望 2025 年,我預計下半年的核心收入成長和淨營運收入成長將比上半年略高,這主要是由於我們的季度比較結果如何。
But as we said, at the outset, we think that this -- that our guidance and our sort of outlook on 2025 is appropriately measured given the supply backdrop. We feel good about the trends we're seeing on the ground here in the very early part of 2025.
但正如我們一開始所說的,我們認為,考慮到供應背景,我們對 2025 年的指導和展望是恰當的。我們對 2025 年初實際看到的趨勢感到滿意。
But it's really early in the year. A lot of things can happen. So we just want to be mindful of that.
但現在確實還為時過早。很多事情都有可能發生。所以我們只是想留意這一點。
Operator
Operator
Jesse Lederman, Zelman & Associates.
傑西·萊德曼(Jesse Lederman),澤爾曼及合夥人。
Jesse Lederman - Analyst
Jesse Lederman - Analyst
It sounds like you're expecting a pretty nice contribution from third party management in '25. Just looking under the hood in the fourth quarter. It looks like revenue and expenses for 3PM increased sequentially. And units under management actually inched lower sequentially.
聽起來你期待在'25 年第三方管理能做出相當不錯的貢獻。只需觀察第四季度的情況。看起來 3PM 的收入和支出連續增加。而管理單位規模實際上較上季有所下降。
So can you talk about the moving pieces there? And embedded within the $0.02 of incremental for '25, do you expect that to come mostly from units or expanding margin?
那麼您能談談那裡發生的事情嗎?在 25 年的 0.02 美元增量中,您是否預計這主要來自單位數或擴大利潤率?
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Hey, Jesse. It's Jon.
嘿,傑西。是喬恩。
Yeah. I'll just say this. I mean I think the third party managed portfolio is going to ebb and flow a little bit. Hopefully, we'll be looking to find new accounts to add. But our customers do periodically want to prune their own portfolio. That's an important part of our role as asset manager is sort of sharing with them our perspective on which assets make sense from a risk adjusted total return perspective, which assets would allow them to improve the overall growth and margin profile of their own book by sort of shedding those assets.
是的。我就說這麼多。我的意思是,我認為第三方管理的投資組合將會出現一些起伏。希望我們能夠找到可以新增的帳戶。但我們的客戶確實希望定期修剪自己的投資組合。這是我們作為資產管理人的職責中很重要的一部分,就是與他們分享我們的觀點,即從風險調整後的總回報角度來看,哪些資產是合理的,哪些資產可以讓他們透過剝離這些資產來改善自己帳簿的整體成長和利潤率狀況。
And so look, we feel very good. The contribution, as I noted at the outset to 2025 earnings will be about $0.02 incremental from our third party management business and our JV business. That reflects sort of a full year earn-in this year as well as the various structures in terms of how we receive income over time.
所以看,我們感覺非常好。正如我在一開始就指出的那樣,到 2025 年,我們的第三方管理業務和合資業務的貢獻將增加約 0.02 美元。這反映了今年的全年收入以及我們隨著時間推移獲得收入的各種結構。
But look, as I said, I think it's a great business. We have, and I think you sort of implicitly suggested, we have seen higher PME expenses as we've had to scale to absorb that that new line of business.
但正如我所說,我認為這是一筆偉大的生意。我們已經看到了更高的 PME 費用,因為我們必須擴大規模來吸收新的業務線。我想您也暗示過這一點。
I think as you look at 2025, our run rate in terms of PME and G&A will probably be skosh lower than it was here in the fourth quarter as we continue to extract efficiencies. When we first introduced this new line of business, we noted that we were going to need to scale up, make some investments in the platform, make some investments in people.
我認為,展望 2025 年,由於我們繼續提高效率,我們的 PME 和 G&A 運作率可能比第四季低。當我們首次推出這條新業務線時,我們注意到我們需要擴大規模,在平台上進行一些投資,在人才上進行一些投資。
And that over time in distance, we would understand kind of what was the appropriate structure to efficiently manage that business together with our wholly owned business. I think we have much greater insight into what that looks like now.
隨著時間的推移,我們會了解到什麼樣的結構才適合有效管理該業務和我們的全資業務。我認為我們現在對這一情況有了更深入的了解。
And so as Dallas said, we're really focused on getting as efficient as we can be in terms of how we manage the totality of the properties, whether we own them, manage them, or whatever the case may be.
正如達拉斯所說,我們真正專注於盡可能有效地管理所有財產,無論我們是擁有它們、管理它們,還是其他任何情況。
Operator
Operator
John Pawlowski, Green Street.
約翰‧帕沃夫斯基 (John Pawlowski),綠街。
John Pawlowski - Analyst
John Pawlowski - Analyst
And it's a two part question around your comments on external growth. One, are you actively considering expansion into international markets? And two, Dallas, when I hear we're exploring avenues outside of traditional SFR, my mind goes to new property sectors.
這個問題由兩部分組成,分別圍繞著您對外部成長的評論。一、你們是否積極考慮拓展國際市場?其次,當我聽說我們正在探索傳統 SFR 以外的途徑時,我的腦海中浮現出達拉斯新的房地產行業。
So more detail around the non-traditional avenues of growth would be appreciated.
因此,我們希望能夠了解更多有關非傳統成長途徑的細節。
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
On the first question, no. We're not currently contemplating an office in Rio de Janeiro or anything like that.
對於第一個問題,答案是否定的。我們目前還沒有考慮在裡約熱內盧設立辦公室或類似的地方。
All jokes aside, we see a great opportunity here in the US to continue to look for ways to meaningfully add scale. As I mentioned earlier, both, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, our NOI margin continues to enhance. And we get better at offering our services in a more cost effective way over scale.
拋開所有笑話不談,我們看到美國存在著一個絕佳的機會,可以繼續尋找有意義地擴大規模的方法。正如我之前提到的,正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的,我們的淨營運利潤率持續提高。而且,我們能夠以更具成本效益的方式更好地提供規模服務。
But we -- I guess you could, never say never but that's not in the cards right now. Secondly, as we think about stuff that's outside of traditional SFR, there's sort of two ways to think about that. One is, Scott and I are looking at a number of opportunities where we can lend strength to regional operators or builders in a way that might help sort of lower their cost of capital, create meaningful opportunities for us to close on those assets at the end of maybe a construction or delivery cycle.
但是我們—我想你可以說永遠不要說永遠,但現在還不可能。其次,當我們思考傳統 SFR 以外的事物時,有兩種思考方式。一是,斯科特和我正在尋找一些機會,我們可以藉力區域運營商或建築商,以某種方式幫助他們降低資本成本,為我們在建設或交付週期結束時完成這些資產的收購創造有意義的機會。
So those are things that we're looking at. We've done more townhome projects candidly in the last year. Looked at more opportunities of where candidly, single family rental units, but maybe they share a common wall, but they have all the aspects and characteristics of our business.
這些都是我們正在關注的事情。坦白說,去年我們完成了更多的聯排別墅專案。坦白說,我們考慮了更多單戶出租單位的機會,但也許它們共用一堵牆,但它們具備我們業務的所有方面和特徵。
Typically, on the townhome product, we're looking at stuff that's much more infill. So higher gross economic pricing, higher gross economic rents, and ability to sort of compress costs across that scale. And I think lastly, we're going to pay attention. Is there a convergence at some point where you see more multi-family and SFR in operating structures?
通常,在聯排別墅產品上,我們會考慮填充程度較高的材料。因此,更高的總經濟定價、更高的總經濟租金以及在整個範圍內壓縮成本的能力。最後我認為我們要注意。在營運結構中,是否存在一種融合現象,即多戶型住宅和 SFR 增加?
We certainly see that with smaller companies today. But it's not something we're currently thinking about. But we are keeping our eyes open to look for opportunities to add meaningful scale in parts of markets that we're already in and/or maybe new markets, as I mentioned before.
如今我們在規模較小的公司中確實看到這種情況。但這不是我們目前正在考慮的事情。但正如我之前提到的,我們正在密切關注尋找機會在我們已經進入的部分市場和/或新市場中擴大有意義的規模。
Operator
Operator
Juan Sanabria, BMO Capital Markets.
Juan Sanabria,BMO 資本市場。
Juan Sanabria - Analyst
Juan Sanabria - Analyst
Just hoping you could talk a little bit about G&A and kind of what we should be modeling for '25. You noted some step ups with regards to 3PM in the joint venture business. And also just give us some color on the expectations around CapEx for homes that has been pretty flat and how that may or may not be impacted by tariffs that are out there.
只是希望您能談談 G&A 以及我們應該為 25 年樹立什麼樣的榜樣。您注意到合資業務中 3PM 方面取得了一些進展。另外,請向我們介紹一下住房資本支出的預期,這項預期一直比較平穩,以及這可能會或可能不會受到現有關稅的影響。
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Sure. Thanks, Juan. It's Jon.
當然。謝謝,胡安。是喬恩。
I think in the fourth quarter, PME and G&A on a combined basis was around $54 million-ish, $56 million, I think. And as I noted a couple questions ago, we think that the the run rate on that is going to be a skosh lower.
我認為在第四季度,PME 和 G&A 合計約為 5,400 萬美元左右,我想是 5,600 萬美元。正如我在幾個問題之前提到的,我們認為該業務的運作率將會略微下降。
So kind of $51 million, $52 million quarterly as we have sort of rationalized some of our cost and figured out how to maximize the efficiency with which we operate our business. Our hope is that we'll continue to extract additional efficiency gains over time, but that is not baked into our guide.
因此,每季的支出約為 5,100 萬美元到 5,200 萬美元,因為我們已經合理化了部分成本,並且找到瞭如何最大限度地提高業務運營效率的方法。我們希望隨著時間的推移,我們能夠繼續獲得額外的效率提升,但這並沒有被納入我們的指南中。
Juan, can you remind me the second part of your question?
胡安,可以提醒我你問題的第二部分嗎?
Juan Sanabria - Analyst
Juan Sanabria - Analyst
Spending for home.
家庭開銷。
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Jonathan Olsen - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Treasurer
Yeah. Look, I think part of the reason that you've seen a flattening there honestly is we have been investing the majority of our external growth opportunities into new product. Additionally, as we've talked about in the past, we have a unique ability in the real estate landscape to asset manage on a unit by unit basis.
是的。看,我認為你看到那裡趨於平緩的原因之一是我們一直將大部分外部成長機會投資於新產品。此外,正如我們過去談到的,我們在房地產領域擁有按單位進行資產管理的獨特能力。
So to the extent that certain homes within the portfolio start to exhibit patterns of materially higher sort of capital reinvestment need, we can go ahead and dispose of those assets and recycle the capital into newer homes and locations that we feel good about that are going to have a lower long-term cost to maintain.
因此,如果投資組合中的某些房屋開始表現出明顯更高的資本再投資需求,我們可以繼續處置這些資產,並將資本回收到我們認為良好的新房屋和地點,因為這些房屋和地點的長期維護成本較低。
Operator
Operator
Julien Blouin, Goldman Sachs.
高盛的朱利安布魯因 (Julien Blouin)。
Julien Blouin - Analyst
Julien Blouin - Analyst
Dallas, you gave some really helpful color on the supply dynamics, and you mentioned that you expect a bit more spec inventory maybe based on comments from publics and regional builders. Can you help frame sort of how large that spec supply impact could be?
達拉斯,您對供應動態給出了一些非常有用的信息,並且您提到,根據公眾和地區建築商的評論,您預計規格庫存會有所增加。您能否幫助描述規格供應的影響可能有多大?
And also what's your sense of how the quality, maybe the features and the locations of those homes in that spec inventory compares to your own portfolio?
另外,您認為與您自己的投資組合相比,這些規格庫存房屋的品質、特點和位置如何?
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Great question.
好問題。
I'll add a little bit of commentary on top of what Scott said earlier. I mean we are seeing with some of partners and people that we do a lot of business with, every month, every quarter, just sort of getting to see opportunities on spec that sort of fit the profile of our traditional products.
我將對斯科特之前所說的內容添加一些評論。我的意思是,我們每個月、每個季度都會和一些合作夥伴以及與我們有很多業務往來的人見面,看看是否有符合我們傳統產品特徵的機會。
We love -- candidly, we love the product quality that both the public and the private builders generally have in place. We're not seeing anything that alarms us in terms of builders both at a big scale or maybe at regional scale that are putting so much product out in the pipeline that it causes us to be fearful.
我們喜歡——坦白說,我們喜歡公共和私人建築商普遍擁有的產品品質。我們沒有看到任何值得我們警惕的事情,無論是大規模還是區域規模的建築商都在推出如此多的產品,以致於引起我們的擔憂。
I think we're just recognizing the fact that there is a bid-ask spread in the market right now between where mortgage rates are and maybe where deliveries are coming in. And so with that, I would expect that Scott and the team will be a little bit more aggressive in buying both scattered in those opportunities and also in our strategic thinking around when we do a development, remember, we're pretty agnostic.
我認為我們只是認識到目前市場上抵押貸款利率和交貨金額之間存在買賣價差。因此,我希望史考特和他的團隊能夠更積極地購買這些分散的機會,並在進行開發時進行策略思考,請記住,我們是相當不可知的。
We're fine taking development bets on large sections of master plans. We're also find sprinkling within a community over scale and density. It looks and feels like 80,000 of our current home business. So I don't see anything on the horizon that suggests that there's such a major tilt that it's a problem.
我們很樂意在總體規劃的大部分內容上押注發展。我們也發現社區內的規模和密度有差異。它看起來和感覺起來就像我們目前的 80,000 個家庭企業。因此,我看不到任何跡象表明存在如此嚴重的傾斜以至於成為一個問題。
Just recognizing that we're seeing a little bit more deal flow. And this stuff tends to change quarter to quarter based on the market dynamics. And right now, those dynamics, as you guys know, is mortgage rates are elevated, people still want access to good quality products.
我們只是意識到看到了更多的交易流。而且這些東西往往會根據市場動態而每季發生變化。如大家所知,現在的動態是抵押貸款利率上升,但人們仍然希望獲得優質的產品。
It's about $1,100 a month cheaper to lease a home from us than it would be to buy that similar home in that market. So we're taking advantage of that dislocation.
從我們這裡租賃一套房屋比在該市場購買類似的房屋每月便宜約 1,100 美元。所以,我們要利用這種錯位。
Operator
Operator
Linda Tsai, Jefferies.
傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Linda Tsai。
Linda Tsai - Analyst
Linda Tsai - Analyst
You were over 97% in occupancy for most of last year and are guiding to 96.5%. Which markets are you expecting a bigger shift to blend to the slower rate?
去年大部分時間您的入住率都超過 97%,預計會達到 96.5%。您預計哪些市場將發生更大轉變以適應較慢的成長速度?
Charles Young - President, Chief Operating Officer
Charles Young - President, Chief Operating Officer
Yeah. This is Charles. Good question.
是的。這是查爾斯。好問題。
Look, this time of year, we've set ourselves up well to capitalize on spring leasing season and building occupancy kind of across the board. But as we mentioned, last year, we're starting to see some supply challenges in Central Florida, Texas, Phoenix. Those are the markets that we're just being thoughtful about that may not build back occupancy as high as we have in California or Seattle or maybe the Carolinas.
看,每年的這個時候,我們都已經做好了充分的準備,以充分利用春季租賃季節和全面的建築入住率。但正如我們去年提到的,我們開始看到佛羅裡達州中部、德克薩斯州和鳳凰城面臨一些供應挑戰。我們正在考慮這些市場,它們可能無法像加州、西雅圖或卡羅來納州那樣恢復高入住率。
So as we look at our ability to lease those homes when they turn over, we're having to compete a bit more on price in a number of those markets. And we just want to be thoughtful to try to capture as much of that rate as possible and understand that it may have an impact on occupancy.
因此,當我們考慮在這些房屋交付後出租它們的能力時,我們必須在許多市場上在價格上展開更多競爭。我們只是想深思熟慮,盡可能多地了解該比率,並了解它可能對入住率產生影響。
I think the other thing to think about is turnover is remaining really low. So that's really great. And I think on the renewal side, we're seeing really healthy numbers. And overall, turnover is staying where we think it's healthy.
我認為需要考慮的另一件事是營業額仍然很低。這真的很棒。我認為,從續約方面來看,我們看到了一個非常健康的數字。總體而言,我們認為營業額維持在健康的水平。
So it's really about the numbers coming in based on how long we're having to stay on the market. And certain markets have more supply than others. Across the board, we're seeing a little bit of an uptick on supply, which is normal coming off of COVID.
所以這實際上取決於我們必須在市場上停留多長時間而得出的數字。某些市場的供應量比其他市場多。整體而言,我們看到供應量略有上升,這是疫情後正常的現象。
But that's not material in most markets. It's in the markets that we're talking about that I think we'll see a little less occupancy.
但在大多數市場中這並不重要。我認為,在我們談論的市場中,入住率會有所下降。
Operator
Operator
Jade Rahmani, KBW.
傑德·拉赫馬尼(Jade Rahmani),KBW。
Jason Sabshon - Analyst
Jason Sabshon - Analyst
This is Jason Sabshon on for Jade.
這是 Jason Sabshon,為 Jade 主持節目。
Are you guys seeing any increased interest in third parties and partnering or taking an interest in the portfolio? Because SFR certainly remains a high interest sector for institutional investors.
你們是否看到對第三方和合作夥伴的興趣增加或對投資組合感興趣?因為 SFR 無疑仍是機構投資者高度關注的領域。
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Scott and I get inbounds all the time with people that are curious. Like what's our program? How do we think about 3PM? Could we help operating margins be more efficient for perspective partners? I want to emphasize sort of two broad points and then Scott, feel free to add any color.
斯科特和我經常與好奇的人交流。例如我們的計劃是什麼樣的?我們如何看待 3PM?我們能否協助潛在合作夥伴提高營業利益率?我想強調兩點,然後斯科特,請隨意添加任何顏色。
One is that we're only really interested in partners that have scale and that have pretty similar market overlap. That's the first point. And two, that we want to operate their portfolios in a manner that's very in line with how we run our own business.
一是,我們只對有規模且市場重疊度相當相似的合作夥伴感興趣。這是第一點。第二,我們希望以與我們經營自己業務的方式一致的方式來經營他們的投資組合。
So leaning in on the areas that scale and efficiency give you.
因此,要依靠規模和效率所能給予你的領域。
Scott, there's nothing really of color to note, but just generally, that we're definitely on people's radar, I would think so.
斯科特,其實並沒有什麼特別值得注意的地方,但總的來說,我們肯定引起了人們的注意,我是這麼認為的。
Scott Eisen - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Scott Eisen - Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer
Yeah. I mean we get on inbounds frequently. And I think for us, it's really as, Dallas said about finding, LPs or prospective partners that we think are sophisticated, institutional, and like-minded. And also for people, we also want to look at portfolios that sort of are in our buy box in terms of the types of homes that we manage today.
是的。我的意思是我們常常上界。我認為對我們來說,這真的就像達拉斯所說的那樣,尋找我們認為成熟、制度化且志同道合的 LP 或潛在合作夥伴。對於個人而言,我們還希望根據我們目前管理的房屋類型來查看我們購買範圍內的投資組合。
There are some people that come to us where markets where we don't operate. There are people that come to us with a different business segment that's not necessarily where we're trying to pay. And so we try to be focused on that.
有一些人來到我們沒有營運的市場。有些人來找我們,是來自不同的業務領域,而我們不一定願意支付他們的費用。因此我們盡力集中於此。
But clearly, this is, in terms of, and obviously, when we look at our potential partnerships, these partners are obviously holders of assets. But we'll explore selling or pruning some or all of those portfolios over time. And clearly, when our partners decide if they want to prune a little bit or a lot, we get a first look at those assets.
但顯然,就這一點而言,顯然,當我們審視我們的潛在合作夥伴關係時,這些合作夥伴顯然是資產持有者。但隨著時間的推移,我們會考慮出售或削減部分或全部投資組合。顯然,當我們的合作夥伴決定是否要進行少量或大量削減時,我們會先查看這些資產。
And every single time a partner would like to sell assets out of the portfolio, we evaluate the acquisition and we have an early look in a discussion with them on whether it's an opportunity for us to wholly own it within our portfolio.
每當合作夥伴想要出售投資組合中的資產時,我們都會評估收購情況,並儘早與他們討論這是否是我們完全擁有投資組合資產的機會。
And this is part of our regular dialogue. And we view all of our third party and joint venture partners as being opportunities for future growth for us.
這是我們定期對話的一部分。我們將所有第三方和合資夥伴視為我們未來成長的機會。
Operator
Operator
Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.
富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。
James Feldman - Analyst
James Feldman - Analyst
I think you've covered a bit of it in the last question. But we've now seen Welltower raise their fund. Obviously, promotes just is a pretty robust fund business. Just what is your appetite for whether they're finite, infinite life funds or even larger single investor JVs?
我認為您在最後一個問題中已經涉及了一點內容。但現在我們看到 Welltower 已經籌集了資金。顯然,促恰恰是一項相當強勁的基金業務。您對於它們是有限、無限壽命基金還是更大規模的單一投資者合資企業的興趣如何?
And if -- I'll ask a follow-up question now since I can't do it regularly. So and if that's the case, how would you think about what would go on balance sheet versus into the third party structures? And if we could see down the road you adding promotes to your either business model or your comp structure.
如果——我現在會問一個後續問題,因為我不能定期這樣做。那麼,如果是這樣的話,您如何看待資產負債表上的內容和第三方結構中的內容?如果我們能看到您將促銷活動加入您的商業模式或公司架構中。
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks for the questions, [promotes].
謝謝你的提問,[提升]。
I'll try to make sure that I tackle, basically just broad strokes around how we think about our JVs and what we're focused on.
我將盡力確保能夠解決基本上只是大致的問題,圍繞著我們如何看待我們的合資企業以及我們關注的重點。
As we mentioned and as we reconfirmed in the earnings transcript, we were successful in raising another joint venture with what we think is a very high quality partner here in the US. That gives us added flexibility as we come across opportunities primarily probably in the new construction space.
正如我們在收益報告中提到並再次確認的那樣,我們成功地與美國一家我們認為非常優質的合作夥伴建立了另一家合資企業。當我們遇到機會時,這為我們提供了額外的靈活性,主要可能是在新建築領域。
But it'll land itself to lots of creative thinking together as we look to maximize returns both for our shareholders, and for theirs. Right now, our focus has been, and this is our third joint venture that we've announced in the history of the business.
但當我們尋求為我們的股東和他們的股東實現回報最大化時,它就會產生大量的創造性思維。現在,我們的重點是,這是我們公司歷史上宣布的第三次合資企業。
And really probably the third in the last four to five years. It gives us an extra layer of creative capital to go after opportunities that may warrant different structures, different leverage structures as well. And so we're finishing deploying one other venture right now while looking at opportunities to invest in this new venture.
這實際上可能是過去四到五年來的第三次。它為我們提供了額外的創造性資本,以尋求可能需要不同結構、不同槓桿結構的機會。因此,我們目前正在完成另一項業務的部署,同時也在尋找投資這項新業務的機會。
And we have a very matter of fact, clear and transparent structure on how we rotate those opportunities. They don't all fit into the same buckets, which makes it easy for us as well. And we certainly are looking for ways to protect the REITs. So that we can grow on balance sheet as much as possible.
對於如何輪換這些機會,我們有一個非常現實、清晰和透明的結構。它們並不都適合放在同一個桶子裡,這也為我們帶來了方便。我們確實正在尋找保護房地產投資信託基金的方法。這樣我們就可以盡可能地實現資產負債表的成長。
And what's nice about these joint venture partners, and I would argue that they are partners, is that we can work collectively to be smart around how we think about deploying the capital, what those structures are in relationship to your question around promotes, but we don't get any detail of that publicly unless we get to a point that we think that we need to.
這些合資夥伴(我認為他們是合作夥伴)的優點在於,我們可以共同努力,明智地考慮如何部署資本,這些結構與你提出的促進問題有何關係,但除非我們認為有必要,否則我們不會公開任何細節。
And so at this point in time, I think what I would just say is we have excellent partners that give us added flexibility. It's making us more opportunistic and allowing us to look at more opportunities for growth, knowing that we've got that added layer of flexibility.
所以此時此刻,我想說的是,我們擁有優秀的合作夥伴,他們為我們提供了額外的靈活性。它使我們更加抓住機遇,讓我們能夠看到更多的成長機會,因為我們知道我們已經獲得了額外的靈活性。
Operator
Operator
This completes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Dallas Tanner for any closing remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。現在,我想將會議交還給達拉斯·坦納 (Dallas Tanner),請他作最後發言。
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dallas Tanner - Chief Executive Officer, Director
We want to thank everyone again for joining us today. These are really exciting times for our company, Invitation Homes. And we feel privileged to work alongside such a talented team. I also want to extend gratitude and appreciation to Charles and join him in congratulating Tim.
我們要再次感謝大家今天的參加。對於我們公司 Invitation Homes 來說,這真是令人興奮的時刻。我們很榮幸能與這樣一支才華橫溢的團隊一起工作。我也要向查爾斯表示感謝和讚賞,並與他一起向提姆表示祝賀。
Both are exceptional leaders. They both play pivotal roles in driving Invitation Homes forward in the future and helping us achieve our long-term goals.
兩位都是傑出的領導者。他們在推動 Invitation Homes 未來發展和幫助我們實現長期目標方面發揮了關鍵作用。
We look forward to seeing everybody at the Citi Conference. Thanks.
我們期待在花旗會議上見到大家。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
That concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。