Infinera Corp (INFN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Infinera Corporation Q4 2022 Earnings Conference Call. After today's prepared remarks, we will take your questions. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎來到 Infinera Corporation 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。在今天準備好的發言之後，我們將回答您的問題。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I would like to hand things over to Mr. Amitabh Passi, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

在這個時候，我想把事情交給投資者關係主管 Amitabh Passi 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Lisa. Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Infinera's fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 conference call. A copy of today's earnings and investor slides are available on the Investor Relations section of the website. Additionally, this call is being recorded and will be available for replay from our website.

謝謝你，麗莎。謝謝，大家下午好。歡迎來到英飛朗 2022 財年第四季度電話會議。今天的收益和投資者幻燈片的副本可在網站的投資者關係部分獲得。此外，此通話正在錄製中，可以從我們的網站上重播。

Today's call will include projections and estimates that constitute forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, statements related to our expectations regarding our business model and strategy, market opportunities and trends, competition, customers, capacity growth, the shift to open architecture, market adoption of coherent optical engines, our ability to ramp ICE6 and increase vertical integration, the potential for Infinera's new subsystems products to drive market expansion, increase Infinera's profitability and improve Infinera's competitiveness in the future. Expectations also regarding industry-wide supply chain challenges and the macroeconomic environment, projected year-over-year drivers of demand, revenue, gross margin, operating expenses and operating margin, future investments in our direct sales force, our ability to sell higher-margin products to existing customers of line systems and Infinera's financial outlook for the first quarter and full-year of 2023.

今天的電話會議將包括構成前瞻性陳述的預測和估計，包括但不限於與我們對我們的商業模式和戰略、市場機會和趨勢、競爭、客戶、產能增長、向開放式架構轉變的期望相關的陳述，相干光引擎的市場採用，我們提升 ICE6 和增加垂直整合的能力，Infinera 的新子系統產品推動市場擴張的潛力，增加 Infinera 的盈利能力並提高 Infinera 在未來的競爭力。對全行業供應鏈挑戰和宏觀經濟環境的預期，預計同比需求驅動因素、收入、毛利率、營業費用和營業利潤率、對我們直銷隊伍的未來投資、我們銷售更高利潤的能力線系統現有客戶的產品以及 Infinera 2023 年第一季度和全年的財務展望。

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause Infinera's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors, including those set forth in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended on December 25, 2021, as filed with the SEC on February 23, 2022, and its quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 24, 2022, as filed with the SEC on November 2, 2022, as well as subsequent reports filed with or furnished to the SEC from time to time.

這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，這些風險和不確定因素可能導致 Infinera 的業績與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。由於各種風險因素，包括我們於 2022 年 2 月 23 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的截至 2021 年 12 月 25 日的年度 10-K 表格年度報告及其季度報告中所述的風險因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異2022 年 11 月 2 日向 SEC 提交的截至 2022 年 9 月 24 日的季度的 10-Q 表報告，以及不時向 SEC 提交或提供的後續報告。

Please be reminded that all statements are made as of today, and Infinera undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that may arise after the date of this call. Today's conference call includes non-GAAP financial measures, except for revenue, balance sheet items and cash flow from operations, which are each discussed on a GAAP basis. Pursuant to Regulation G, we have provided a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in our earnings release and investor slides for this quarter, each of which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website. And finally, as a reminder, we'll allow for plenty of time for Q&A today that we ask you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up please.

請注意，所有聲明均截至今日作出，Infinera 不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明以反映本次電話會議日期後可能出現的事件或情況的義務。今天的電話會議包括非 GAAP 財務指標，但收入、資產負債表項目和運營現金流除外，這些指標均在 GAAP 基礎上進行了討論。根據 G 條例，我們在本季度的收益發布和投資者幻燈片中提供了這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，每一個都可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。最後，作為提醒，我們今天將留出充足的時間進行問答，請您將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上。

With that, I'll turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, David Heard.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給我們的首席執行官大衛赫德。

Thanks, Amitabh. Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us today. I'll begin with a review of our results and then I'll turn the call over to Nancy to cover the details of our financial performance for the fourth quarter and for the full year. Our fourth quarter performance was remarkably strong, enabling us to beat consensus expectations on revenue and operating profit and contributed to record performance on many fronts. Specifically, we reported record revenue of $486 million, up 21% on a year-over-year basis. We achieved product revenue of $399 million, also a high for the company and up 26% on a year-over-year basis. We delivered gross margins of 38.7%, up 150 basis points year-over-year and we expanded operating margins to 10.5%, up 620 basis points year-over-year.

謝謝，阿彌陀佛。下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。我將從回顧我們的結果開始，然後我會把電話轉給南希，詳細介紹我們第四季度和全年的財務業績。我們第四季度的業績非常強勁，使我們能夠超出對收入和營業利潤的普遍預期，並在許多方面創造了創紀錄的業績。具體來說，我們報告的收入達到創紀錄的 4.86 億美元，同比增長 21%。我們實現了 3.99 億美元的產品收入，這也是公司的最高收入，同比增長 26%。我們實現了 38.7% 的毛利率，同比增長 150 個基點，並將營業利潤率擴大至 10.5%，同比增長 620 個基點。

Relative to our expectations coming into the quarter, revenue and operating margin came in above the high end of our outlook range, while gross margin was within the outlook range. Demand in the quarter was healthy, with a book-to-bill ratio above 1. The fourth quarter also marked a great finish to 2022, a year in which we grew company revenue by 10%, consistent with our stated objective of 8% to 12% with product revenue growth even higher at 15%. We kept gross margins stable while absorbing more than $60 million of supply chain costs that adversely impacted our annual gross margins by over 400 basis points. We doubled operating margin to 4.4%, up 230 basis points year-over-year. We ramped ICE6 to 28% of product revenue for the full year, ahead of our stated objective of 20% to 25%. And we delivered samples of the industry's first software-defined 400 gig ZR+ pluggables on time with industry-leading reach, power and performance as validated by Tier 1 customers.

相對於我們對本季度的預期，收入和營業利潤率高於我們展望範圍的高端，而毛利率在展望範圍內。本季度需求健康，訂單出貨比高於 1。第四季度也標誌著 2022 年的完美收官，這一年我們的公司收入增長了 10%，與我們既定的 8% 到 2022 年的目標一致12%，產品收入增長甚至更高，達到 15%。我們保持毛利率穩定，同時吸收了超過 6000 萬美元的供應鏈成本，這些成本對我們的年度毛利率產生了 400 多個基點的不利影響。我們的營業利潤率翻了一番，達到 4.4%，同比增長 230 個基點。我們將 ICE6 增加到全年產品收入的 28%，超過了我們既定的 20% 到 25% 的目標。我們按時交付了業界首個軟件定義的 400 gig ZR+ 可插拔樣品，具有經過一級客戶驗證的業界領先的覆蓋範圍、功率和性能。

I'm extremely pleased with our performance in 2022, especially considering the range of macroeconomic impacts we faced from a lingering pandemic and persistent supply chain challenges to rising inflation and a backdrop of a conflict in Europe. Despite these headwinds, we outgrew the optical systems market, gained share, improved our balance sheet and continued to extend profitability for the third consecutive year. As I think about the year, there were 2 primary factors that presented us with some challenges throughout the year. One, micro and one, macro. On the macro front, as I mentioned earlier, our most profound challenge was navigating a difficult supply chain environment as we absorbed over $60 million of supply chain costs. Without these elevated costs, our gross margins would have been 400 basis points higher for the full year and above 40% for the full year. We expect supply costs to remain elevated for the first half of 2023.

我對我們在 2022 年的表現感到非常滿意，特別是考慮到我們面臨的一系列宏觀經濟影響，包括揮之不去的流行病和持續的供應鏈挑戰，以及不斷上升的通脹和歐洲衝突的背景。儘管存在這些不利因素，我們的增長超過了光學系統市場，獲得了份額，改善了我們的資產負債表，並連續第三年繼續擴大盈利能力。回顧這一年，有兩個主要因素給我們帶來了全年的挑戰。一是微觀，一是宏觀。在宏觀方面，正如我之前提到的，我們最大的挑戰是應對困難的供應鏈環境，因為我們吸收了超過 6000 萬美元的供應鏈成本。如果沒有這些增加的成本，我們全年的毛利率將提高 400 個基點，全年將超過 40%。我們預計 2023 年上半年供應成本將保持高位。

On the micro front, as we grew our business with customers into new locations and new geographies, we experienced a higher-than-anticipated demand for our line systems and non-vertically integrated metro products. These products do come at lower margin initially, but the expanded footprint sets us up well for future margin expansion as we add transponders with our own vertical integration.

在微觀方面，隨著我們與客戶的業務發展到新地點和新地區，我們對線路系統和非垂直集成地鐵產品的需求高於預期。這些產品最初的利潤率確實較低，但隨著我們通過自己的垂直整合添加轉發器，擴大的足跡為我們未來的利潤率擴張做好了準備。

Let me now turn to some of our portfolio and commercial highlights for 2022. Specifically, within the system business group, we had 3 major accomplishments in the year. First, as I mentioned earlier, we successfully ramped ICE6 to 28% of product revenue in 2022, resulting in nearly 30% revenue growth in the combined long-haul and subsea market segments. We exited the year with over 70 ICE6 customers and secured design wins with major service providers, including a U.S. Tier 1 service provider with plans to ramp revenue in 2023 and beyond.

現在讓我談談我們 2022 年的一些產品組合和商業亮點。具體來說，在系統業務集團內，我們在這一年取得了 3 項重大成就。首先，正如我之前提到的，我們在 2022 年成功地將 ICE6 增加到產品收入的 28%，導致長途和海底市場合併後的收入增長近 30%。我們在這一年結束時擁有 70 多家 ICE6 客戶，並贏得了主要服務提供商的設計，其中包括一家計劃在 2023 年及以後增加收入的美國一級服務提供商。

Second, revenue in the metro segment from the GX 30 and XTM products grew by a double-digit percentage in 2022, continuing the strong momentum in this segment over the last 3 years. Lastly, we continue to advance our suite of automation software, which makes our products easier to use and faster to onboard and open networks over competitors' line systems. We also believe software on our pluggables is a game-changing and differentiator in the industry, helping customers lower operating costs and gain higher levels of visibility and security, while maximizing their agility.

其次，GX 30 和 XTM 產品在地鐵領域的收入在 2022 年以兩位數的百分比增長，延續了該領域過去 3 年的強勁勢頭。最後，我們繼續改進我們的自動化軟件套件，這使我們的產品更易於使用，並且可以更快地在競爭對手的線路系統上加入和開放網絡。我們還相信，我們的可插拔產品上的軟件是行業中的遊戲規則改變者和差異化因素，可幫助客戶降低運營成本並獲得更高級別的可見性和安全性，同時最大限度地提高他們的敏捷性。

Similarly, in the subsystems group, we also had several notable accomplishments. First, we turned out the first units of our 400 gig ZR+ software-defined pluggables in live traffic environments in North America with the Tier 1 service provider, delivering industry-leading results in reach, power and performance. At the upcoming OFC Industry Show, we look forward to sharing additional details on the recent momentum we've had in our pluggables business. Second, we've received commercial validation of these pluggables for the first set of purchase orders of our 400 gig ZR+ point-to-point and our 400 gig XR point to multi-point pluggables as we exited the year. We remain on track for product availability in the first quarter of 2023.

同樣，在子系統組中，我們也有幾個顯著的成就。首先，我們與一級服務提供商在北美的實時交通環境中推出了第一批 400 gig ZR+ 軟件定義可插拔設備，在覆蓋範圍、功率和性能方面取得了行業領先的成果。在即將舉行的 OFC 工業展上，我們期待分享更多關於我們可插拔業務近期發展勢頭的詳細信息。其次，我們已經收到了這些可插拔的商業驗證，用於我們的 400 gig ZR+ 點對點和我們的 400 gig XR 點到多點可插拔的第一組採購訂單，因為我們退出了這一年。我們仍有望在 2023 年第一季度提供產品。

Third, we advanced the development of our 100 gig XR point-to-multipoint coherent pluggables based on the open multi-source specifications being developed in the open XR Forum. We believe this pluggable will be a game changer in the 5G mobile edge compute and a new access architectures. Membership in the XR Forum expanded further with 7 new members joining before in the quarter, including Lumentum and a Tier 1 North American cable operator. The Forum now includes a total of 28 members, including service providers, representing about 25% of the global CapEx spend in this category and several network equipment manufacturers, demonstrating our commitment to open networks in the industry. And finally, during the year, we also launched the development of our next-generation 800 gig high-performance pluggables, which we believe will lead the industry and power, performance and manageability.

第三，我們基於開放 XR 論壇中正在開發的開放多源規範，推進了 100 gig XR 點對多點相干可插拔的開發。我們相信這種可插拔將成為 5G 移動邊緣計算和新接入架構的遊戲規則改變者。 XR 論壇的成員進一步擴大，本季度之前有 7 名新成員加入，其中包括 Lumentum 和一家北美一級有線電視運營商。該論壇現在共有 28 個成員，其中包括服務提供商（佔該類別全球資本支出支出的 25% 左右）和幾家網絡設備製造商，表明我們致力於在行業中開放網絡。最後，在這一年中，我們還啟動了下一代 800 gig 高性能可插拔的開發，我們相信這將引領行業以及功率、性能和可管理性。

Looking ahead to 2023, we remain encouraged by the secular drivers of our business, our competitive position, our planned portfolio and record backlog. The insatiable appetite for bandwidth, coupled with the significant investments being made in fiber infrastructure are long-term positive drivers for Infinera and quite frankly, the industry. With that being said, we are mindful of an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, which may result in some near-term variability in the timing of demand and capital spending as our customers manage their business in a recessionary climate. We see no reason to get ahead of our skis at this time and will take a prudent approach to 2023.

展望 2023 年，我們的業務的長期驅動因素、我們的競爭地位、我們計劃的投資組合和創紀錄的積壓訂單仍然讓我們感到鼓舞。對帶寬永不滿足的需求，加上對光纖基礎設施的大量投資，是 Infinera 乃至整個行業的長期積極推動力。話雖如此，我們注意到不確定的宏觀經濟背景，這可能會導致需求和資本支出的時間出現一些近期變化，因為我們的客戶在經濟衰退的環境中管理他們的業務。我們認為此時沒有理由超越我們的滑雪板，並將在 2023 年之前採取謹慎的態度。

While Nancy will cover the specific details of our financial outlook, I'd like to provide some high-level color on our planning assumptions for the year. First, we expect to outgrow the optical systems market again in 2023, resulting in further market share gains. Industry analysts appear to be coalescing around a growth rate of 4% to 5% for the systems market in 2023, and we believe we will grow high single-digits. Similar to last year, we expect our growth to be weighted more towards the second half of the year. Second, we plan to expand our operating margins and gross margins again in 2023, as we continue to ship more vertically integrated products like ICE6 and as the supply chain costs attenuate in the back half of the year.

雖然 Nancy 將介紹我們財務前景的具體細節，但我想就我們今年的計劃假設提供一些高級色彩。首先，我們預計到 2023 年光學系統市場的增長將再次超過光學系統市場，從而進一步擴大市場份額。行業分析師似乎將 2023 年系統市場的增長率集中在 4% 到 5% 左右，我們相信我們將實現高個位數增長。與去年類似，我們預計我們的增長將更多地集中在下半年。其次，我們計劃在 2023 年再次擴大我們的營業利潤率和毛利率，因為我們將繼續出貨更多垂直整合的產品，如 ICE6，並且隨著下半年供應鏈成本的下降。

In addition, we will exit the year with the next level of margin expansion with our own vertically integrated pluggables beginning to fire in our financials. Finally, given the strength of our refreshed portfolio and the market opportunity in front of us, we believe it's an appropriate and opportune time to increase investments in our go-to-market efforts to accelerate top line growth and drive additional market share gains in pursuit of $1 of earnings per share as our target. Overall, we believe delivering steady and solid improvement across our financials, portfolio, customer service and employee engagement has served us well over the last 3 years despite some significant externalities. Our primary objectives remain unchanged; to grow faster than the market, drive margin expansion and officially enter the pluggables market, a multibillion-dollar opportunity.

此外，隨著我們自己的垂直整合可插拔產品開始在我們的財務中火起來，我們將以更高水平的利潤率擴張結束這一年。最後，鑑於我們更新後的產品組合的實力和擺在我們面前的市場機會，我們認為現在是增加對我們的上市努力的投資以加速收入增長並推動額外市場份額增長的適當時機每股收益 1 美元作為我們的目標。總體而言，我們認為，儘管存在一些重大的外部因素，但在過去 3 年中，我們在財務、投資組合、客戶服務和員工敬業度方面取得了穩步而穩固的改善，這對我們很有幫助。我們的主要目標保持不變；比市場增長更快，推動利潤擴張並正式進入可插拔市場，這是一個價值數十億美元的機會。

Our [8 by 4 by 1] strategy is winning as evidenced by our customer and portfolio traction and the demand for our products and services remained healthy. We look forward to driving deeper into our strategy, growth plans and announcing some exciting additions to our robust portfolio of systems, high-end embedded engines and pluggable products and technologies at our upcoming Investor Day on March 7, 2023, at OFC, the Optical Fiber Communications Industry Show in San Diego, California.

我們的 [8 x 4 x 1] 戰略正在取得成功，我們的客戶和產品組合的吸引力以及對我們產品和服務的需求保持健康就證明了這一點。我們期待在即將於 2023 年 3 月 7 日在 OFC 舉行的投資者日上更深入地研究我們的戰略、增長計劃，並宣布我們強大的系統、高端嵌入式引擎和可插拔產品和技術組合的一些令人興奮的補充加利福尼亞州聖地亞哥的光纖通信工業展。

As I close today, I would like to thank the Infinera team for delivering on a solid 2022 and their continued commitment to care to our customers and one another. I would also like to thank our partners, customers and shareholders for their continued support.

在今天結束之際，我要感謝 Infinera 團隊在 2022 年實現了堅實的目標，並感謝他們繼續致力於關心我們的客戶和彼此。我還要感謝我們的合作夥伴、客戶和股東一直以來的支持。

I will now hand the call over to Nancy to cover the financial details of the quarter and the outlook for the first quarter and year.

我現在將把電話轉給南希，介紹本季度的財務細節以及第一季度和今年的展望。

Thanks, David. Good afternoon, everyone. I will begin by covering our fourth quarter and full year results and then provide the outlook for the first quarter and full year of 2023. For your reference on our Investor Relations website, we have posted slides with financial details, including our GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation to assist with my commentary.

謝謝，大衛。大家下午好。我將首先介紹我們的第四季度和全年業績，然後提供 2023 年第一季度和全年的展望。供您在我們的投資者關係網站上參考，我們發布了包含財務詳細信息的幻燈片，包括我們的 GAAP 到非GAAP 對賬以協助我的評論。

The fourth quarter was an all-around great quarter for us. We delivered record revenue, a book-to-bill ratio greater than 1, higher gross margin, double-digit operating margin and GAAP profitability. Revenue in the quarter was $486 million, a new high for the company and up 21% on a year-over-year basis with product revenue up 26%. This year-over-year growth was driven primarily by the strength in the Americas and with ICP customers, the continued ramp of ICE6 and ongoing momentum in our metro business. Revenue in the quarter also benefited from the early completion and acceptance of approximately $30 million of projects that were originally slated for acceptance in the first quarter of 2023. Performance in the services business improved further with revenue up 19% sequentially and 3% on a year-over-year basis, as we continue to recover from the supply-related impact earlier in the year.

第四節對我們來說是一個全面的好季度。我們實現了創紀錄的收入、大於 1 的訂單出貨比、更高的毛利率、兩位數的營業利潤率和 GAAP 盈利能力。本季度收入為 4.86 億美元，創公司新高，同比增長 21%，其中產品收入增長 26%。這一同比增長主要是由美洲和 ICP 客戶的實力、ICE6 的持續增長以及我們地鐵業務的持續發展勢頭推動的。本季度的收入還受益於原定於 2023 年第一季度驗收的約 3000 萬美元項目的提前完成和驗收。服務業務的業績進一步改善，收入環比增長 19%，同比增長 3% -同比增長，因為我們繼續從今年早些時候與供應相關的影響中恢復過來。

Geographically, we derived 61% of our revenue from domestic customers, a level higher than normal due to the strength of several service providers and ICPs in the U.S. During the quarter, 1 ICP customer contributed to greater than 10% of our revenue. Q4 gross margin of 38.7% was within our outlook range and up 150 basis points on a year-over-year basis and 90 basis points sequentially. Relative to our expectations from about 100 days ago when we provided our outlook, gross margin came in about 200 basis points to 300 basis points lower, especially when considering the high performance of revenue compared to our outlook range. Approximately 2/3 of that shortfall was due to the impact of product mix, including higher revenue from lower-margin metro and line system products, while approximately 1/3 was from higher supply chain costs.

從地域上看，我們 61% 的收入來自國內客戶，這一水平高於正常水平，這是由於美國多家服務提供商和 ICP 的實力。在本季度，1 個 ICP 客戶貢獻了我們超過 10% 的收入。第 4 季度 38.7% 的毛利率在我們的展望範圍內，同比增長 150 個基點，環比增長 90 個基點。與我們大約 100 天前提供展望時的預期相比，毛利率低了約 200 個基點至 300 個基點，尤其是考慮到與我們的展望範圍相比收入表現出色時。大約 2/3 的短缺是由於產品組合的影響，包括利潤率較低的地鐵和線路系統產品的收入增加，而大約 1/3 是由於供應鏈成本較高。

Operating profit in the quarter was $51 million, up approximately 200% on a year-over-year basis, with an operating margin of 10.5% compared to 4.3% in Q4 of '21. This margin performance in the quarter clearly highlights the operating leverage potential in our business model, which we believe will only get better as we drive a higher percentage of vertical integration in our product mix and with the benefit from the attenuation of supply chain costs in the second half. Operating expenses of $137 million in the quarter were slightly below our outlook range of $140 million to $144 million, as we tightly manage spending in the quarter. The resulting diluted EPS in the quarter was $0.16 per share, up from $0.03 in the year ago quarter.

本季度營業利潤為 5100 萬美元，同比增長約 200%，營業利潤率為 10.5%，而 2021 年第四季度為 4.3%。本季度的這一利潤率表現清楚地凸顯了我們商業模式中的運營槓桿潛力，我們相信，隨著我們在產品組合中推動更高比例的垂直整合，以及受益於供應鏈成本的下降，這種情況只會變得更好。下半場。本季度 1.37 億美元的運營支出略低於我們 1.4 億美元至 1.44 億美元的預期範圍，因為我們嚴格管理本季度的支出。本季度由此產生的攤薄後每股收益為 0.16 美元，高於去年同期的 0.03 美元。

Moving on to the balance sheet and cash flow items. We ended the quarter with $189 million in cash and restricted cash, slightly down from last quarter. The primary use of cash in the quarter was working capital to fund our growth as we strategically built inventory and invested in securing our supply chain, while the use of cash by accounts receivable is typical of the fourth quarter seasonality in our business. Consequently, cash flow from operations was approximately flat in the quarter and free cash flow was an outflow of $9 million. As I reflect on our performance for all of 2022, I am proud of the progress we made with our business model, portfolio and customers despite operating in a very difficult macroeconomic environment, as you heard from David, for the full year of '22.

轉到資產負債表和現金流量項目。本季度結束時，我們擁有 1.89 億美元的現金和受限現金，略低於上一季度。本季度現金的主要用途是營運資金，為我們的增長提供資金，因為我們戰略性地建立庫存並投資於保護我們的供應鏈，而應收賬款使用現金是我們業務第四季度的典型季節性。因此，本季度運營現金流基本持平，自由現金流流出 900 萬美元。當我回顧我們 2022 年全年的業績時，我為我們在 22 年全年的業務模式、產品組合和客戶方面取得的進展感到自豪，儘管在非常困難的宏觀經濟環境中運營，正如你從大衛那裡聽到的那樣。

We delivered record revenue of $1.57 billion, up 10% on a year-over-year basis and within our stated range of 8% to 12% growth. We ramped ICE6 to 28% of product revenue above our stated range of 20% to 25%. We set a record for bookings and backlog and exited the year with remaining performance obligations of $983 million, up $220 million year-over-year and we more than doubled operating margin to 4.4%, up 230 basis points year-over-year and within our stated range of 200 basis points to 300 basis points of operating margin expansion. Furthermore, we strengthened our balance sheet by refinancing a portion of our debt and therefore, reducing our 2024 convertible debt to approximately $100 million, down from over $400 million previously. We also put in place a new ABL facility in the year with expanded capacity and better terms.

我們實現了創紀錄的 15.7 億美元收入，同比增長 10%，並且在我們規定的 8% 至 12% 的增長范圍內。我們將 ICE6 增加到產品收入的 28%，高於我們規定的 20% 到 25% 的範圍。我們創下了預訂和積壓的記錄，並以 9.83 億美元的剩餘履約義務結束了這一年，同比增長 2.2 億美元，我們的營業利潤率翻了一番以上，達到 4.4%，同比增長 230 個基點，並且在我們規定的營業利潤率擴張範圍為 200 至 300 個基點。此外，我們通過對部分債務進行再融資來加強資產負債表，因此將 2024 年的可轉換債務從之前的 4 多億美元減少至約 1 億美元。我們還在這一年建立了新的 ABL 設施，擴大了產能並提供了更好的條件。

Let me now turn to our outlook for the first quarter of 2023. We remain encouraged by the long-term drivers of our business, customer momentum and record backlog. At the same time, we are mindful of the uncertain macroeconomic environment we are operating in and the potential for some near-term impacts to customer CapEx budgets. We expect supply chain costs to carry over from '22 into 2023, with their impact being more pronounced in the first half of the year. Taking these factors into account, we expect Q1 revenue to be in the range of $380 million, plus or minus $15 million, representing approximately 12% growth on a year-over-year basis at the midpoint of the range.

現在讓我談談我們對 2023 年第一季度的展望。我們仍然對業務的長期驅動因素、客戶勢頭和創紀錄的積壓感到鼓舞。與此同時，我們注意到我們所處的不確定的宏觀經濟環境以及對客戶資本支出預算可能產生的一些近期影響。我們預計供應鏈成本將從 22 世紀延續到 2023 年，其影響在今年上半年更為明顯。考慮到這些因素，我們預計第一季度收入將在 3.8 億美元上下浮動 1500 萬美元之間，按該範圍的中點計算，同比增長約 12%。

Normalizing for the $30 million of higher revenue in Q4 from the early acceptance of certain customer projects, our Q1 outlook is consistent with the typical seasonality we experienced in our business. We believe our revenue trajectory in 2023 will mirror the trend of the last 2 years with a stronger second half compared to the first half. We expect Q1 gross margin to be in the range of 38.5%, plus or minus 150 basis points, up 230 basis points year-over-year at the midpoint of the range. The primary driver of the year-over-year increase in gross margin is the higher percentage of vertical integration in our mix. Also, embedded in the gross margin outlook is our assumption that we will continue to absorb significant supply chain impact in Q1 from elevated costs and expedite fees.

由於提前接受某些客戶項目，第四季度收入增加了 3000 萬美元，我們對第一季度的展望與我們在業務中經歷的典型季節性一致。我們相信我們 2023 年的收入軌跡將反映過去 2 年的趨勢，下半年比上半年更強勁。我們預計第一季度毛利率在 38.5% 的範圍內，上下浮動 150 個基點，在該範圍的中點處同比增長 230 個基點。毛利率同比增長的主要驅動力是垂直整合在我們的產品組合中所佔的比例更高。此外，毛利率前景中包含我們的假設，即我們將繼續吸收成本上升和費用增加對第一季度供應鏈的重大影響。

We are forecasting Q1 operating expenses to be in the range of $139 million to $143 million, up sequentially as we accelerate investments in global sales and business development to take advantage of the growing market opportunity, while continuing to invest in our R&D road map. The resulting operating margin in Q1 is expected to be approximately 1.5%, plus or minus 250 basis points, up approximately 250 basis points on a year-over-year basis. Below the operating income line, we assume $7 million for net interest expense and $4 million for taxes. Finally, we are anticipating earnings per share in the range of a loss of $0.02, plus or minus $0.04 per share, assuming a basic share count of approximately 222 million shares and a fully diluted share count of 262 million shares.

我們預測第一季度的運營支出將在 1.39 億美元至 1.43 億美元之間，隨著我們加快對全球銷售和業務發展的投資以利用不斷增長的市場機會，同時繼續投資於我們的研發路線圖，環比上升。由此產生的第一季度營業利潤率預計約為 1.5%，上下浮動 250 個基點，同比增長約 250 個基點。在營業收入線以下，我們假設淨利息支出為 700 萬美元，稅收為 400 萬美元。最後，假設基本股數約為 2.22 億股，完全稀釋後的股數為 2.62 億股，我們預計每股收益將在 0.02 美元上下波動，上下浮動 0.04 美元。

Looking further out to the full year of 2023, we remain focused on making continued progress in our financial performance as we march towards $1 in earnings per share over the next few years. Our outlook for the full year of 2023 contemplates the following. First, revenue growth of approximately 8%. Considering the approximately $30 million of additional revenue in Q4, the uncertain macroeconomic environment and our record backlog, we believe it is prudent to set our outlook towards the lower end of our long-term 8% to 12% growth rate range for now. I want to reinstate that we remain committed to our long-term growth rate of 8% to 12%, higher than the growth rate of the market.

展望 2023 年全年，我們將繼續專注於在未來幾年實現每股收益 1 美元的目標，繼續取得財務業績的進步。我們對 2023 年全年的展望考慮如下。首先，收入增長約8%。考慮到第四季度大約 3000 萬美元的額外收入、不確定的宏觀經濟環境和我們創紀錄的積壓，我們認為目前將我們的前景設定在 8% 至 12% 的長期增長率範圍的下限是謹慎的。我想重申，我們仍然致力於實現 8% 至 12% 的長期增長率，高於市場增長率。

Second, gross margin of 40% plus for the full year of approximately 300 basis points year-over-year. The 2 key drivers of gross margin expansion in the year will be the continued ramp of ICE6 and our expectation of some relief of supply chain costs of approximately $30 million, with most of the benefit expected to flow through the second half of the year. Finally, we are planning for continued operating margin expansion with operating margin up 125 basis points to 200 basis points year-over-year as we accelerate investments in our go-to-market engine.

其次，全年毛利率超過 40%，同比增長約 300 個基點。今年毛利率擴張的兩個主要驅動因素將是 ICE6 的持續增長，以及我們預計供應鏈成本將減少約 3000 萬美元，其中大部分收益預計將在下半年流出。最後，隨著我們加快對上市引擎的投資，我們計劃繼續擴大營業利潤率，營業利潤率同比增長 125 個基點至 200 個基點。

As I close today, I want to reiterate my confidence in our 8 by 4 by 1 strategy, our long-term business model and our commitment to $1 per share in earnings over the next few years. I would also like to extend my thanks to the Infinera team whose unwavering commitment to innovation, execution, excellence and to one another is remarkable. In addition, I would like to thank our partners, customers and shareholders for your continued cooperation and support. We look forward to seeing many of you at our upcoming Investor Day at the OFC Industry Show in San Diego on March 7.

在今天結束之際，我想重申我對我們的 8 x 4 x 1 戰略、我們的長期商業模式以及我們在未來幾年實現每股收益 1 美元的承諾的信心。我還要感謝 Infinera 團隊，他們對創新、執行、卓越和彼此的堅定承諾是非凡的。此外，我要感謝我們的合作夥伴、客戶和股東一直以來的合作與支持。我們期待在即將於 3 月 7 日在聖地亞哥舉行的 OFC 工業展投資者日見到你們中的許多人。

Lisa, I'd now like to open the line for questions.

麗莎，我現在想打開問題熱線。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from Alex Henderson, Needham.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）我們將從 Needham 的 Alex Henderson 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

So, I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the mechanics around your backlog and book-to-bill number in the fourth quarter and how we should think about that backlog/working down over time. Can you give us some sense of what your expectations are in terms of what you might have in terms of excess orders on the book as you're exiting the year? Or do you still anticipate that? Just some color around that would be helpful.

所以，我希望你能談談第四季度積壓和訂單出貨數量的機制，以及我們應該如何考慮積壓/隨著時間的推移而減少。您能否告訴我們您對今年結束時賬面超額訂單的期望是什麼？或者你仍然預料到這一點？周圍只有一些顏色會有所幫助。

Yes, sure. The remaining performance obligations, which is our kind of proxy for backlog was up $220 million year-over-year at $983 million, which was a record for us. So even though we did see some earlier acceptances in Q4 than we originally expected, we're looking at Q1 and the first half seeing our customers start to work through some of their own backlog and we would expect to do the same. However, in the back half of the year, as that demand first half, second half plays out again, we would expect that we will once again be in a position where we're building that backlog in the second half.

是的，當然。剩餘的履約義務，這是我們積壓的代理，同比增長 2.2 億美元，達到 9.83 億美元，這對我們來說是創紀錄的。因此，即使我們確實在第四季度看到一些比我們原先預期的更早的接受，但我們正在關注第一季度和上半年，看到我們的客戶開始處理他們自己的一些積壓工作，我們希望這樣做。然而，在今年下半年，隨著上半年、下半年的需求再次出現，我們預計我們將再次處於下半年積壓訂單的位置。

So, for the total year book-to-bill at this point in time is forecasted to be above 1.

因此，預計此時點的全年訂單出貨比將高於 1。

So, you're expecting 2023 book-to-bill to be above 1.

因此，您預計 2023 年的訂單出貨比將高於 1。

Our next question is Mike Genovese, Rosenblatt Securities.

我們的下一個問題是 Rosenblatt Securities 的 Mike Genovese。

This is Andrew King on for Mike Genovese. Just a quick question around demand in the US, particularly around the Tier-1 and the other service providers. Can you just give us any idea as to, if any of the demand trends around there have changed? A lot of what we've heard, is that advanced ordering has slowed. Can you just talk to us about what those customer conversations sound right now versus a couple of quarters ago?

這是邁克吉諾維斯的安德魯金。只是一個關於美國需求的快速問題，特別是圍繞一級和其他服務提供商。如果那裡的任何需求趨勢發生了變化，您能否告訴我們任何想法？我們聽到的很多消息是，提前訂購已經放緩。你能和我們談談現在與幾個季度前相比，這些客戶對話聽起來如何嗎？

Yes. That's accurate. And Alex's question kind of precludes that. As we look at the first half of the year this year, I think a lot of people are coming out of the box a little bit slower in terms of their capital planning, trying to eat any of that excess inventory. As we do see the actual supply chain beginning to alleviate, those costs again are still carrying over into the first half of this year.

是的。這是準確的。亞歷克斯的問題有點排除了這一點。當我們回顧今年上半年時，我認為很多人在資本規劃方面開箱即用的速度有點慢，試圖吃掉任何多餘的庫存。正如我們確實看到實際供應鏈開始緩解一樣，這些成本再次延續到今年上半年。

So, I think you're going to see a little bit of a slowdown in those orders in the first half, yet picked up in the back half, because the CSPs, while they may hold or cut some CapEx, the priority of their CapEx is still on the rollout of fiber in terms of spending both fiber access and then obviously driving the speeds to bring that back into the metro and long-haul network.

所以，我認為你會看到上半年這些訂單略有放緩，但在下半年有所回升，因為 CSP，雖然他們可能會持有或削減一些資本支出，但他們的資本支出的優先級就花費光纖接入和明顯提高速度以將其帶回城域網和長途網絡而言，仍在推出光纖。

On the web scalers, we continue to see their cloud services business continued to grow despite people talking about layoffs in certain segments of their area. And again, we now have exposure to all 7 of the top ICPs. So, again, we think people are going to moderate and hold order less sooner. But I will tell you the positive element of that is, we've seen better planning coming out of the CSPs and ICPs, which is why Nancy and I are able to look better at a long-term or a full-year view now versus a year ago today.

在 Web Scalers 上，我們繼續看到他們的雲服務業務繼續增長，儘管人們談論他們所在地區的某些部分裁員。再一次，我們現在接觸了所有 7 個頂級 ICP。因此，我們再次認為人們會更溫和地維持秩序。但我會告訴你，其中的積極因素是，我們已經看到 CSP 和 ICP 做出了更好的規劃，這就是為什麼 Nancy 和我現在能夠更好地看待長期或全年的觀點，而不是現在一年前的今天。

Great. Really good color there. And then -- sorry.

偉大的。那裡的顏色真的很好。然後——抱歉。

Next is George Notter, Jefferies LLC.

接下來是 Jefferies LLC 的 George Notter。

I'm just curious about the mix of ICE6 in Q4. As a percentage of product sales I heard the comment for the full year. I was just curious about Q4?

我只是對第四季度的 ICE6 組合感到好奇。作為產品銷售額的百分比，我聽到了全年的評論。我只是好奇Q4？

Yes. It approached 40%, getting in that range.

是的。它接近 40%，進入該範圍。

Okay. And then, as I think about your gross margin guidance for next year, I think you said 40% for the full year, what kind of mix of ICE6 does that contemplate?

好的。然後，當我考慮你明年的毛利率指導時，我想你說的是全年 40%，這考慮了什麼樣的 ICE6 組合？

Yes. I said, 40% plus, I'm giving myself a little room there. But...

是的。我說，40% 以上，我給自己留了一點空間。但...

35% to 40%.

35% 到 40%。

Yes. Sorry, I said for gross margin. Yes. And for ICE6, we're thinking 35% to 40% for the full year of product revenue.

是的。抱歉，我說的是毛利率。是的。對於 ICE6，我們正在考慮全年產品收入的 35% 到 40%。

Got it. Okay. And then is that a lower mix, then you were thinking previously. It feels like the gross margin assumptions for next year are down little like, I don't know, this is quite apples-to-apples, but I think you guys were kind of talking about mid-40s exiting the year this year. Now it's 40% for the year. Is the gross margin perspective a little bit lower? Is there something driving that? Is it mix? Is it something else we're missing here?

知道了。好的。然後是較低的組合，然後您之前在想。感覺明年的毛利率假設下降了一點，我不知道，這很像蘋果對蘋果，但我認為你們在談論今年 40 年代中期退出。現在是一年的 40%。毛利率前景是不是有點低？有什麼東西在驅動嗎？是混合嗎？我們在這裡還缺少其他東西嗎？

No. A really good question. A piece of that, George, is certainly -- we've talked pretty consistently about the supply chain costs. So, that $30 million that we talked about roughly having from last year, that'll be very weighted in the front half of the year. We already know based on backlog and purchase commitments out there. In the PPV, we've laid out that, that is more likely to hit large portion of that in the front half of the year. The second piece is we're continuing to lay out the mix of line systems and metro prior to the vertical integration coming in.

不，一個非常好的問題。其中一部分，喬治，當然是——我們一直在談論供應鏈成本。因此，我們談到的去年大約有 3000 萬美元，這將在今年上半年非常重要。我們已經根據那裡的積壓和採購承諾知道了。在 PPV 中，我們已經指出，這更有可能在今年上半年達到很大一部分。第二部分是在垂直整合進入之前，我們將繼續佈局線路系統和地鐵的組合。

Our next question is Simon Leopold, Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題是西蒙利奧波德，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

First thing I wanted to ask you about was recently there have been a series of press releases from other optical systems players regarding newer generations. I know you're just starting to hit your stride on ICE6. So it seems early to be asking you about ICE7 or whatever you liked to be calling it. But given that the series of headlines and the timeline, what kind of assurance can you offer us in terms of your roadmap towards a next-gen platform? And then I've got a quick follow-up.

我想問你的第一件事是最近其他光學系統廠商發布了一系列關於新一代的新聞稿。我知道你才剛剛開始在 ICE6 上大踏步前進。所以現在問你關於 ICE7 或者你喜歡怎麼稱呼它似乎還為時過早。但是考慮到一系列的頭條新聞和時間表，您可以就您通往下一代平台的路線圖向我們提供什麼樣的保證？然後我有一個快速的跟進。

Yes, it's a good question, and this always happens about this time of the year, right, as we get into OFC and always conveniently around our earnings call. So, Simon, it's the best I felt. We will lay out our roadmap for pluggables, which will be very in line with an 8x4x1 strategy in terms of our pluggable strategy that you heard us talk about on 800 gig or 400 and 100 gig.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，而且這種情況總是在一年中的這個時候發生，對，因為我們進入 OFC 並且總是在我們的財報電話會議上很方便。所以，西蒙，這是我感覺最好的。我們將製定可插拔路線圖，這將非常符合 8x4x1 戰略，就您聽到我們在 800 gig 或 400 和 100 gig 上談論的可插拔戰略而言。

And remember, that's attacking about 60% of the market in terms of metro and getting out to access. On the long-haul side because of our block technology and us being fully vertically integrated, we are actually working on 2 generations of technology that we will announce at OFC, and we feel very, very strong about our competitive position. We all know that these product cycles take lots of time. ICE6 will be a very -- 800 gig will be a very long product cycle. But again, I think we feel very good. We've got ICE7 and ICE7 beyond that.

請記住，就地鐵而言，這是在攻擊大約 60% 的市場並開始進入。在長途方面，由於我們的區塊技術和我們完全垂直整合，我們實際上正在研究我們將在 OFC 上宣布的 2 代技術，我們對我們的競爭地位感到非常非常強大。我們都知道這些產品週期需要很多時間。 ICE6 將是一個非常——800 場演出將是一個非常長的產品週期。但同樣，我認為我們感覺非常好。除此之外，我們還有 ICE7 和 ICE7。

Great. And then just as a follow-up. I wanted to see if maybe you could unpack what you're seeing from the cable TV vertical, particularly given Charter specifically has laid out a plan and Comcast has been investing. In the past as those have been good businesses for you and just want to see how you're thinking about the trend in cable TV over the next year or 2?

偉大的。然後作為後續行動。我想看看你是否可以解開你從有線電視垂直領域看到的東西，特別是考慮到 Charter 特別制定了一個計劃並且康卡斯特一直在投資。過去這些對您來說都是不錯的業務，只是想看看您如何看待明年或兩年的有線電視趨勢？

I hope my sales team isn't listening to this call, because I would say, I don't believe they have been great segments for us. That is one of the areas we are growing and putting more investment in. Because as they move to these next generation architectures, I mean, you're hearing not only about 2 gig to the home, but now you're starting to hear about 5 and 10 gigs to the home. Those architectures are going to be very, very reliant on our 8x4x1 strategy. So look, what I'm seeing is investment. You're right. And we've got the right portfolio at the right time, but we've got to make sure we've got the right go-to-market relationships and channels to be able to get there. So, my expectations are raising for that. My expectations are raising for that segment.

我希望我的銷售團隊沒有聽到這個電話，因為我會說，我不相信他們對我們來說是很好的細分市場。這是我們正在發展並投入更多投資的領域之一。因為隨著他們轉向這些下一代架構，我的意思是，你不僅會聽到大約 2 gig 到家庭，而且現在你開始聽到5 和 10 場演出到家。這些架構將非常非常依賴我們的 8x4x1 策略。所以看，我看到的是投資。你說得對。我們在正確的時間擁有正確的產品組合，但我們必須確保我們擁有正確的上市關係和渠道才能實現目標。因此，我對此的期望正在提高。我對該細分市場的期望正在提高。

Because you've been -- historically, you've been strong with a couple of those guys and had a, let's say, some share loss in the last year or 2. So, I'm just wondering if you're sort of making a comeback.

因為你一直——從歷史上看，你和其中一些人在一起很強大，比方說，在過去的一兩年裡有一些股票損失。所以，我只是想知道你是否有點捲土重來。

Yes. So, you're referring to one major one MSO here and one in Europe. Yes, I think we feel very good about our position without revealing any particulars about the customer.

是的。因此，您指的是這裡的一個主要 MSO 和歐洲的一個。是的，我認為我們對自己的立場感到非常滿意，但沒有透露有關客戶的任何細節。

And, Simon, just as a reminder, we also mentioned the new ICE6 win with a cable operator quarter. So just a comment.

而且，西蒙，提醒一下，我們還提到了新的 ICE6 贏得有線電視運營商季度。所以只是評論。

Great. I forgot about that.

偉大的。我忘記了。

We will now hear from Samik Chatterjee, JPMorgan.

我們現在將聽到摩根大通 Samik Chatterjee 的講話。

This is Joe Cardoso on for Samik. My first question is on the sequential improvements in Europe. The revenue level there is still kind of in the sub-100 revenue run rate. Can you just provide an update on what you're seeing in that region and whether demand trends are still overall positive?

這是 Samik 的 Joe Cardoso。我的第一個問題是關於歐洲的連續改進。那裡的收入水平仍然低於 100 美元的收入運行率。您能否提供您在該地區看到的最新情況以及需求趨勢總體上是否仍然積極？

And then more specifically touch on the Huawei displacement opportunity, whether there has been any encouraging developments on that front and whether you're seeing any share gain or whether you rather taking any share gains into your guide for 2022 relative to that? And then I have a quick follow-up.

然後更具體地談談華為取代的機會，這方面是否有任何令人鼓舞的發展，你是否看到任何份額增長，或者你是否願意將任何份額增長納入你的 2022 年指南？然後我有一個快速跟進。

Okay. Well, good -- all good questions. I think the subsea segment is reasonably lumpy, but as we stated in our prepared remarks that the long-haul and subsea segment overall was up 30% on a revenue basis year-over-year. So, we feel really good about our position there, not just now, but as I mentioned, over the long-term with our roadmap.

好的。嗯，很好——都是很好的問題。我認為海底部分相當起伏不定，但正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，長途和海底部分整體收入同比增長 30%。因此，我們對我們在那裡的地位感覺非常好，不僅是現在，而且正如我提到的，從我們的路線圖的長期來看。

Did you have something?

你有東西嗎？

Yes. Joe, just to clarify, was your question on Europe or subsea?

是的。喬，澄清一下，你的問題是關於歐洲還是海底？

The question was on Europe.

問題是關於歐洲的。

So on Europe, yes, look, I think on Europe, we did see a bit of softness in the European region. I think, based on a couple of factors, one of which is FX, which we don't disclose by region, but obviously, that's the one that gets impacted the most for us. The second is, look, I think service providers are digesting a bit, as well as looking at their budgets on operating costs. As we've noticed especially from the conflict between Russian, and the Ukraine, power costs have gone up as I talk to the CEOs and CXOs in that area, their power budgets have gone up two to four-fold over the last 2 years. So, I still think that we're going to see nice robust growth there. But the third element of that is where we're continuing to add sales and marketing resources for both Europe and the Middle East, we think that can be -- that's going to continue to be a very robust and high growth area for us.

所以在歐洲，是的，看，我認為在歐洲，我們確實看到了歐洲地區的一些疲軟。我認為，基於幾個因素，其中之一是外匯，我們沒有按地區披露，但顯然，這是對我們影響最大的因素。第二個是，看，我認為服務提供商正在消化一點，同時也在考慮他們的運營成本預算。正如我們特別從俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的衝突中註意到的那樣，當我與該地區的 CEO 和 CXO 交談時，電力成本已經上升，他們的電力預算在過去兩年中增加了兩到四倍。所以，我仍然認為我們會在那裡看到強勁的增長。但其中的第三個要素是我們將繼續為歐洲和中東增加銷售和營銷資源，我們認為這將繼續成為我們非常強勁和高增長的領域。

And then just any progress in terms of the Huawei displacement opportunity in that region, and is any of that baked into your guide for next year?

然後在該地區的華為取代機會方面取得了任何進展，明年的指南中是否包含了這些進展？

Yes. So look, let's talk about the growth rate. So, our growth rate, meaning the revenue that Nancy and I projected 100 days ago when we were contemplating next year has not changed. The absolute number hasn't changed. We happen to have a bit of business come in, in terms of acceptances and supply chain relief in fourth quarter that we assumed would be in Q1. So the absolute number for 2023 has not changed, where we talked about having an 8% growth rate in 2022 and maybe 10% next year, it flipped just because of that.

是的。所以看，讓我們談談增長率。因此，我們的增長率，即南希和我在 100 天前我們考慮明年時預測的收入沒有改變。絕對數量沒有變化。我們恰好在第四季度的驗收和供應鏈緩解方面有一些業務，我們假設會在第一季度進行。所以 2023 年的絕對數字沒有改變，我們談到 2022 年增長率為 8%，明年可能增長率為 10%，它因此而翻轉。

The Huawei opportunities, they're becoming harder and harder to decipher because they're just not being invited to new tenders. And so we are seeing a bigger inflow of future tenders. In fact, we have some very big ones in-house for that particular region, where it is just -- they are not included in that. So, I do think that we do see opportunity there. But given everything else, I just don't think it pays for us to get ahead of our skis in terms of the growth rate for next year of contemplating anything bigger than that. I think those are some significant tailwinds for our business for the long-term for sure. Sorry, don't forget that they're 12% roughly, if you think of their overall market share outside of China, it's about 12%. That continues to be up for grabs for, again, the best solution provider over the next couple of years.

華為的機會越來越難破譯，因為他們只是沒有被邀請參加新的招標。因此，我們看到更多的未來招標流入。事實上，我們在那個特定地區有一些非常大的內部，只是 - 它們不包括在內。所以，我確實認為我們確實在那裡看到了機會。但考慮到其他一切，我認為就明年考慮比這更大的事情的增長率而言，讓我們領先於我們的滑雪板是不值得的。我認為從長遠來看，這些對我們的業務來說肯定是一些重要的順風。抱歉，不要忘記他們大約是 12%，如果你考慮他們在中國以外的整體市場份額，大約是 12%。在接下來的幾年裡，這將再次成為最佳解決方案提供商。

Fahad Najam, Loop Capital, is up next.

Loop Capital 的 Fahad Najam 緊隨其後。

I apologize if you already addressed this. But if I look at your 1Q '23 guide, it is a little bit more below typical seasonality. And one -- correct me if I'm mistaken, but you had maybe 14 weeks in the fourth quarter, is that correct? And can you just help us understand what's driving the above seasonality weakness?

如果您已經解決了這個問題，我深表歉意。但是，如果我看一下您的 1Q '23 指南，它會比典型的季節性要低一些。還有一個——如果我弄錯了請糾正我，但你在第四季度可能有 14 週，對嗎？您能否幫助我們了解是什麼導致了上述季節性疲軟？

Yes. So in Q4, we saw about $30 million of revenue that if you look at the exceeding of the outlook range that we had originally anticipated would hit us in Q1 that we are actually able to close down in Q4. So if you take that into consideration, the seasonality is about normal, about 9%. So that's why you're seeing that higher number just if you look Q4 to Q1 directly.

是的。因此，在第四季度，我們看到了大約 3000 萬美元的收入，如果你看看超出我們最初預期的預期範圍的收入會在第一季度打擊我們，我們實際上能夠在第四季度關閉。所以如果你考慮到這一點，季節性是正常的，大約 9%。所以這就是為什麼你直接看 Q4 到 Q1 就會看到更高的數字。

I also wouldn't call 12% year-over-year growth in the Q1 contemplated guidance weakness. I think we're splitting hairs there.

我也不認為第一季度 12% 的同比增長預期指導疲軟。我認為我們在那里分裂頭髮。

Got it.

知道了。

And then for the year, as David was saying, if you look at the full-year growth and if you look at this over 2 years, right, the CAGR on that is over 9% for the 2 years. So it's a matter of just timing on when that revenue hit us.

然後對於這一年，正如大衛所說，如果你看一下全年的增長，如果你看一下 2 年以上的增長，那麼 2 年的複合年增長率超過 9%。因此，這只是時間問題，說明收入何時會影響到我們。

Got it. I wanted to ask you a little bit about the supply chain dynamics. One of your contract manufacturers talked about some incremental new challenges for 400-gig in higher speed systems, I guess, a new component shortage. Anything -- can you enlighten us about what you're seeing in terms of supply chain? Are you still continuing to see the same level of decommits? Is it getting more challenging?

知道了。我想問你一些關於供應鏈動態的問題。您的一位合同製造商談到了 400-gig 在更高速度系統中的一些新挑戰，我猜是新組件短缺。任何 - 你能告訴我們你在供應鏈方面看到了什麼嗎？您是否仍在繼續看到相同水平的退役？它變得更具挑戰性了嗎？

Yes. I wouldn't say it's getting more challenging. I'd say it's the same start 6 to 8 suppliers and a handful of components underneath that are driving each portion of expedite and costs. But I do believe that we're seeing relief along the way. So in the first half, we're going to see some pretty significant costs continue. Then in our plans, they dissipate in the back half of the year. In general, the supply chain is much healthier than it was at the beginning of last year. So, I'm a lot more optimistic.

是的。我不會說它變得更具挑戰性。我想說的是 6 到 8 個供應商和下面的一些組件是相同的，它們推動了加速和成本的每一部分。但我確實相信我們一路上看到了緩解。因此，在上半年，我們將繼續看到一些相當可觀的成本。然後在我們的計劃中，他們會在下半年消散。總的來說，供應鏈比去年初健康得多。所以，我樂觀多了。

Our next question is Meta Marshall from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題是來自摩根士丹利的 Meta Marshall。

Great. Maybe just a second on the product mix on the gross margins. I just wanted to get a sense is that new implementations and just kind of initial deployments that are kind of causing that product mix down? Or is there a more fundamental kind of metro gross margin kind of headwind that we should be thinking of?

偉大的。也許只是關於毛利率產品組合的一秒鐘。我只是想了解一下，新的實施和只是某種導致產品混合的初始部署？還是我們應該考慮一種更基本的地鐵毛利率逆風？

And then just second on the go-to-market efforts and kind of the investment there. I mean, I think you somewhat alluded to it with cable kind of being a meaningful target market for that. But just where should we consider kind of the bulk of those investments being made?

然後僅次於進入市場的努力和那裡的投資。我的意思是，我認為你在某種程度上提到了有線電視是一個有意義的目標市場。但是，我們應該在哪裡考慮進行的大部分投資呢？

Sure. Yes, on the metro, I mean, it's new wins, right? So, we've talked about this now for a couple of quarters and we look at the growth rate we're seeing there. The challenge is that the metro today isn't vertically integrated yet, but it will be with our own pluggables. And when that happens, we see that margin expansion. But we are seeing new wins whether that be in metro or in line systems. So it's not anything that I would say is new in terms of the metro margin. It's just a matter of that we're winning more business there.

當然。是的，在地鐵上，我的意思是，這是新的勝利，對吧？所以，我們現在已經討論了幾個季度，我們看看我們在那裡看到的增長率。挑戰在於，今天的地鐵還沒有垂直整合，但它將與我們自己的可插拔設備相結合。當這種情況發生時，我們會看到利潤率擴張。但無論是在地鐵還是線路系統中，我們都看到了新的勝利。因此，就地鐵利潤率而言，我不會說什麼是新的。這只是我們在那裡贏得更多業務的問題。

Do you want to go?

你想去嗎？

Yes. I would say the other thing just for everybody to be aware of is, I think Amitabh, this is like for the second and third year in a row, our line systems we've under forecasted their impact, which is bad for the short term, good for the long -- [ICE6] it's good because those are wins. But it's dilutive to the gross margins in the short term. And it contemplated into Nancy's first half, second half is in the supply chain, there were some components that were really holding up everybody's line systems.

是的。我想說的是讓每個人都知道的另一件事是，我認為 Amitabh，這就像連續第二年和第三年，我們低估了我們的線路系統的影響，這對短期而言是不利的，長久以來都是好事——[ICE6] 這很好，因為那些都是勝利。但它在短期內會稀釋毛利率。它考慮到南希的上半場，下半場在供應鏈中，有些組件確實阻礙了每個人的生產線系統。

And so we are seeing those now come to revenue in the first half of this year coming out of backlog and those are dilutive. So while ICE6 is going to continue to grow and our operating efficiency is going to continue to get better, what we'll find is the layout of those line systems which is great because it means we're winning new routes and new opportunities. That will be again dilutive in the first half, as well as metro. 40% to 50% of that bill of materials is that pluggable. And we will -- we have our own pluggable now that will be available commercially this quarter. But as we go to implement that, we won't really see a significant financial benefit until kind of as we exit the year. So those are -- that's the margin dynamic.

因此，我們看到這些現在在今年上半年從積壓中獲得收入，而且這些都是攤薄的。因此，雖然 ICE6 將繼續增長並且我們的運營效率將繼續提高，但我們會發現這些線路系統的佈局非常好，因為這意味著我們正在贏得新路線和新機會。這將在上半年再次稀釋，以及地鐵。材料清單中有 40% 到 50% 是可插拔的。我們將 - 我們現在擁有自己的可插拔產品，將於本季度上市銷售。但是當我們開始實施它時，我們不會真正看到顯著的經濟利益，直到我們退出這一年。所以那些是 - 這就是保證金動態。

So Meta, on your sales and go-to-market question, I would tell you that without giving away strategy here, certainly the cable area, the Middle East, Europe in those Huawei replacement opportunity markets and then there's a lot of jurisdictions that we're not in. So, we're investing pretty hard in the channel because where we are missing opportunities, the #1 root cause when we do a loss analysis is we weren't there. We didn't know the deal was really going down and we didn't have the relationship there. So, we feel good enough about our portfolio, the market and the position that it's time for us to lay that sales and marketing and go-to-market resource down.

所以 Meta，關於你的銷售和上市問題，我會告訴你，在不放棄戰略的情況下，當然是有線地區、中東、歐洲在那些華為替代機會市場，然後我們有很多司法管轄區不在。因此，我們在渠道上進行了相當大的投資，因為在我們錯失機會的地方，我們進行損失分析時的第一大根本原因是我們不在那裡。我們不知道這筆交易真的會失敗，我們在那裡也沒有關係。因此，我們對我們的產品組合、市場和定位感到足夠好，是時候放下銷售和營銷以及進入市場的資源了。

Did that answer your question, Meta?

這是否回答了您的問題，Meta？

Yes, no, that answered.

是的，不，那是回答。

We'll go to Dave Kang, B. Riley.

我們將請 Dave Kang、B. Riley 發言。

First question is regarding XR. Did I hear you correctly that you guys got purchase orders? And how should we think about revenue projection for XR over the next couple of years?

第一個問題是關於 XR。我沒聽錯你們有採購訂單嗎？我們應該如何考慮未來幾年 XR 的收入預測？

Yes. So, I think what we said in our prior remarks and as we did our last Analyst Day is we'll start to see those external sales as we see today. I get very excited when I see other network equipment manufacturers onboarding that because the reason we tried -- we've stayed in our 8x4x1 strategy as an optical player and not making switching and routing products is we don't want to compete with those that we're supplying.

是的。所以，我認為我們在之前的評論中所說的以及我們在上一個分析師日所做的是，我們將開始看到我們今天看到的那些外部銷售。當我看到其他網絡設備製造商加入時，我感到非常興奮，因為我們嘗試的原因——我們一直堅持我們作為光纖播放器的 8x4x1 戰略，而不生產交換和路由產品，因為我們不想與那些競爭我們正在供應。

So, I think, externally, you'll start to see that ramp this year. It's not going to be a huge number this year, but you will see -- we will see design wins that will relate to more marketable revenue in 2024. We will also begin to -- again, as we exit the year, we're qualifying in our own metro platform. But by the time that rolls through the revenue recognition cycle in the income statement, that will really be a big story in 2024 in terms of continuing this margin accretion that we've been on.

所以，我認為，從外部來看，今年你會開始看到這種增長。今年不會是一個很大的數字，但你會看到——我們將看到與 2024 年更多可銷售收入相關的設計勝利。我們也將開始——再次，當我們結束這一年時，我們在我們自己的地鐵平台上獲得資格。但是，到損益表中的收入確認週期結束時，就繼續我們一直在進行的這種利潤增長而言，這將在 2024 年真正成為一個大故事。

And I would say at our Analyst Day, we plan to kind of walk through how that transpires over the next several years and show the impact that it can have on our overall business model.

我會在我們的分析師日說，我們計劃在未來幾年內逐步了解它是如何發生的，並展示它對我們整體商業模式的影響。

I think in the past, you talked about XR SAM to be about $1 billion to $2 billion. Maybe you'll go over that during the Analyst Day. But what do you think your market share will be?

我想過去，你談到 XR SAM 大約是 10 億到 20 億美元。也許你會在分析師日期間討論這個問題。但是你認為你的市場份額會是多少？

Yes. So that's not something -- let's talk more at the Analyst Day. I will tell you if you're a pluggable player in the industry, having the vertical integration, the fab capabilities, the advanced packaging capabilities, all the assets we have, you can't -- you're not a small player. There are no niche players in that market. So it's kind of an oligopoly. And so the numbers of market share tend to fall within that structure. And we'll talk more about that in the Analyst Day. It's a good question though, Dave.

是的。所以這不是什麼——讓我們在分析師日談論更多。我會告訴你，如果你是這個行業的可插拔參與者，擁有垂直整合、晶圓廠能力、先進封裝能力，以及我們擁有的所有資產，你不能——你不是一個小玩家。那個市場上沒有利基玩家。所以這是一種寡頭壟斷。因此，市場份額的數量往往屬於該結構。我們將在分析師日詳細討論這一點。這是個好問題，戴夫。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go to Jim Suva, Citi.

（操作員說明）我們會去花旗銀行的吉姆蘇瓦。

David, Nancy, I think both of you mentioned dollar earnings per share. I just want to calibrate and make sure you weren't referencing for 2023, I'm quite certain of that. But do you have a timeframe of when that is?

大衛、南希，我想你們都提到了每股美元收益。我只是想校準並確保你沒有參考 2023 年，我很確定這一點。但是你有時間框架嗎？

No, I was not referencing '23, but rather you could think about that as a '25, '26 timeframe. And we'll walk through what has to happen during Analyst Day to whether it falls on the '25 line or the '26 line.

不，我指的不是 23 年，而是你可以將其視為 25 年、26 年的時間框架。我們將介紹在分析師日期間必鬚髮生的事情，以判斷它是落在 25 號線上還是 26 號線上。

Great. That's exciting. And then when you mentioned in Q4, you had some early customer acceptances, does that mean that in 2023 that these are potential customers that are going to be doing future rollouts and purchases faster than expected. Is that how we should kind of think about those early customer acceptances that you referenced?

偉大的。真令人興奮。然後當你在第四季度提到時，你有一些早期的客戶接受，這是否意味著到 2023 年這些潛在客戶將比預期更快地進行未來的推出和購買。我們應該如何看待您提到的那些早期客戶接受度？

I think some of them, yes. I mean, some of them it was a matter of whether it fell in December, January and when we thought it was going to hit. But certainly they were new wins. And so we're pleased, right, that we have them as customers and would expect them to grow. And then the second is on the line systems where we have line systems coming in December. That allows us to start that process and that timeframe in order to fill those line systems earlier, which is good.

我認為其中一些，是的。我的意思是，其中一些問題是它是否在 12 月、1 月下跌，以及我們認為它會在什麼時候下跌。但可以肯定的是，它們是新的勝利。所以我們很高興，對，我們有他們作為客戶，並希望他們成長。然後第二個是在線系統，我們將在 12 月推出在線系統。這使我們能夠開始該過程和該時間範圍，以便更早地填充這些線路系統，這很好。

Okay. And then my final question, probably for Nancy as CFO. How should we be thinking about kind of cash flow for 2023 seasonality or variability as we progress through the year for cash flow?

好的。然後是我的最後一個問題，可能是作為首席財務官的南希。我們應該如何考慮 2023 年現金流的季節性或可變性，因為我們在現金流方面取得了一年的進展？

Yes. Certainly, our plan would have us generating cash from operations in the year and modest free cash flow. Again, we are going to be absorbing about $30 million in terms of additional supply chain costs in my contemplation there. But our -- we saw in Q4 the additional supply chain, the ability to bring on additional inventory, which we took advantage of and want to get that turned out to our clients.

是的。當然，我們的計劃將使我們從當年的運營中產生現金和適度的自由現金流。同樣，根據我的考慮，我們將在額外的供應鏈成本方面吸收大約 3000 萬美元。但是我們 - 我們在第四季度看到了額外的供應鏈，能夠帶來額外的庫存，我們利用了這一點並希望將其提供給我們的客戶。

And so I'm pleased that we were able to do that. One of the things I did not mention is we have not -- we don't have anything drawn on our ABL at this time either. So, that still remains available to us as we needed to for working capital capital. But for '23 for the year, generating free cash flow and modest --sorry, generating cash flow from operations and modest free cash flow.

所以我很高興我們能夠做到這一點。我沒有提到的一件事是我們還沒有——我們目前也沒有在我們的 ABL 上繪製任何東西。因此，我們仍然可以獲得營運資金所需的資金。但是對於今年的 23 年，產生自由現金流和適度的 - 抱歉，從運營中產生現金流和適度的自由現金流。

And everyone at this time, there are no further questions. I'll hand the call back to management for any additional or closing remarks.

而此時的眾人，也沒有再多問的問題了。我會將電話轉回給管理層，以徵求任何補充意見或結束意見。

Yes. No, I appreciate it, and all very good questions. Look, overall, 2022 was a very solid year. We grew the top line 10%, ahead of the market, gained share, and more than doubled our operating profit in the year. That's the third consecutive year of improving our financial progress. We think that steady, consistent approach is going to be great for executing our 8x4x1 strategy. That strategy is working and it's winning.

是的。不，我很感激，而且都是非常好的問題。總體而言，2022 年是非常穩健的一年。我們的收入增長了 10%，領先於市場，增加了市場份額，並且在這一年我們的營業利潤翻了一番多。這是連續第三年改善我們的財務進展。我們認為穩定、一致的方法將非常適合執行我們的 8x4x1 戰略。該策略正在發揮作用，並且正在取得成功。

We delivered this performance while we really addressed some really tough macros. I mean, absorbing over $60 million of supply chain costs and continuing to improve the margin level at the rate we did, while we executed our product portfolio to the timing, to our expectations and the performance ahead of our expectations in terms of the products.

我們提供了這種性能，同時我們真正解決了一些非常棘手的宏。我的意思是，吸收超過 6000 萬美元的供應鏈成本並繼續以我們所做的速度提高利潤率水平，同時我們執行我們的產品組合的時間，我們的預期和產品方面的性能超出我們的預期。

I want to remind you all that having the right elements of vertical integration has never been more important. So as people talk about increasing the speeds of baud rates and wave sizes, having our own components baked into photonically integrated circuits, our own US-based fab, our own US-based advanced packaging allows us to have our own low noise high output lasers, our own modulators, photo detectors, advanced RF packaging to facilitate higher baud rates. That's why we're so comfortable that these block technologies are allowing us to move faster through our development cycle at greater R&D efficiency for both a subsystems business that we intend to be a leader in and a systems business that we intend to continue to gain share.

我想提醒大家，擁有垂直整合的正確要素從未如此重要。因此，當人們談論提高波特率和波形大小的速度時，將我們自己的組件烘焙到光子集成電路中，我們在美國的晶圓廠，我們在美國的先進封裝使我們能夠擁有自己的低噪聲高輸出激光器，我們自己的調製器、光電探測器、先進的射頻封裝，以促進更高的波特率。這就是為什麼我們很高興這些塊技術使我們能夠以更高的研發效率更快地完成我們的開發週期，無論是我們打算成為領導者的子系統業務還是我們打算繼續獲得份額的系統業務.

Now this year, I think what we're seeing is people going through their budgets, and I believe we're going to see, again, that dynamic of eating into backlog for the first half and gaining overall book-to-bill in the second half of the year and for the year. So demand continues to look strong. We will give you lots more guidance as we lay this out at OFC. We look forward to seeing you there. And again, look forward to your continued engagement.

現在今年，我認為我們看到的是人們正在經歷他們的預算，而且我相信我們將再次看到上半年積壓訂單並在下半年獲得整體訂單出貨比的動態今年下半年和全年。因此，需求看起來繼續強勁。我們會在 OFC 上為您提供更多指導。我們期待在那裡見到你。再次期待您的繼續參與。

Thank you all for your continued support. Have a wonderful day or evening.

感謝大家一直以來的支持。祝你度過美好的一天或晚上。

Thanks, everyone.

感謝大家。

Once again, everyone, that does conclude today's conference. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

各位，今天的會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。