International Game Technology PLC (IGT) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the IGT 2016 full-year results conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jim Hurley, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you for joining us on IGT's fourth-quarter and full-year 2016 conference call. Marco Sala, our CEO, will provide an overview of the year and comment on broader strategic initiatives, then Alberto Fornaro, our Chief Financial Officer, will provide operational and financial perspective on those results. After our prepared remarks, we'll open the call for your questions.

During today's call, we'll be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities Laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees and our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. The principle risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from our current expectations are detailed in our SEC filings.

And now I'll turn the call over to Marco Sala, CEO of IGT.

Thank you, Jim, and welcome, everyone. 2016 was an important year for IGT. We reinforced our number one position in lottery globally and made good progress on our gaming turnaround. We also delivered on our financial commitments.

Today we are reporting fourth-quarter and full-year 2016 results that are in line with our expectations. For the full year, 2% constant currency revenue growth translated into a 3% increase in adjusted EBITDA. Disciplined operational and capital management led to a reduction in net debt, despite the substantial upfront Lotto concession payments we had in the year.

When I spoke with you about our objectives for 2016, I focused on five key areas -- grow lottery worldwide, strengthen our global marketing positions in gaming, expand our social interactive operations, protect our Italian leadership, and meet the financial goals I just mentioned. Let me provide some perspective on our progress.

It was a very good year for our global lottery operations, where revenues increased 7% in constant currency. This includes same-store revenue growth of nearly 10% in North America and 3% at our International segment.

Total lottery wages were up 6% in Italy. The Lotto game surpassed EUR8 billion in wagers, fueled by the continued success of 10eLotto, in addition to significant [Late Numbers] activity. We also secured important new business and extensions, starting with the new concession for the Italian Lotto, our largest single contractor, which we will won for another nine years.

In North America, we signed important new contracts in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin; and we extended the key contracts in Georgia, Texas and Michigan. As a result, the weighted average contract length of our top 20 North American contracts of lotteries, including extensions, increased to 8.5 years. Internationally, we added new contracts and extensions in Argentina, Colombia, Switzerland and New Zealand.

We continue to work on the extension of several additional lottery contracts around the world. While this requires incremental capital investment in the near term, it ultimately provides improved visibility and better returns in the long run. In addition, there are compelling opportunities for our International segment to pursue, although the timing is hard to predict.

We are also making important progress with our instant ticket printing business, where it's fair to say that we are underpenetrated, when you consider our leadership position in lottery. We are investing to expand our current instant ticket printing facility to house a new state-of-the-art press, raising our printing capacity by about 30%. Scheduled to be fully operational in early 2018, the new press provides us with greater production efficiency and flexibility.

Our second area of strategic focus was turning around our Gaming operations and strengthening our global position in that business. We have successfully instilled a customer first philosophy in all we do and a player-centric approach to game development. The field trial program we implemented last year ensures that only the best titles are released to sales.

And we have integrated the focus groups into the development of our premium games. We are pleased with the results of these efforts and with the subsequent improvement our Gaming KPIs. For the participation business, we ended 2016 with an increase in our global installed base, reflecting significant International growth, up 11%.

In North America, our goal for the year was to progressively size our installed base. In fact, we experienced growth in the second half of the year, helped by new casino openings and the expansion of our 3D game library, most notably the successful rollout of Wheel of Fortune 3D. While we are encouraged with our progress in the participation business, we'll really be able to assess it more fully once we reach the middle of the year.

This is when the most of the new games and cabinets we presented at G2E last September and at ICE in February will become available in the market. The highest profile games, such as The Voice and Sphinx 4D, will be launched in the second half.

In North America, we expect short-term pressure on the installed base in the first half of the year, largely due to recent casino consolidation. In contrast, we see opportunity to grow our International installed base fairly consistently in 2017, led by Eastern European and Africa and with the progressive rollout of Greek VLTs. As anticipated, Gaming product sales trends improved in the second half of the year, as we introduced a comprehensive suite of for sale video real games with a field tested performance record.

We have a lot of opportunity to grow our video real sales, as we are currently underrepresented in that segment. Golden Egypt and Ocean Magic are just two examples of new video real games that are already generating the above average productivity of strong legacy franchises, such as Lucky Larry Lobstermania and Cleopatra. We also strengthened our leadership position in the video poker and the [staple] categories, supported by new games. In fact, our North America casino replacement unit shipments were up low single digits for the year.

Our focus on developing locally appealing content that leverages our centralized investment in R&D and manufacturing is helping our International Gaming product sales. Australia is a good case in point, as it was a key market focus for us in 2016. There is great opportunity for us there, but to unlock it we needed to empower the local management team to make the right decision for their market and that approach is working.

We achieved a double-digit increases in our Australia new shipments of revenues and profits during the year. Australia is just one example. The early feedback of the new Axxis 23/23 and CrystalSlant cabinets has been good throughout Europe and Latin America.

Systems is another important area of progress for us. We have developed novelty, flexible and scalable solutions that we can leverage across both Lottery and Gaming. Our casino central management systems were selected for some of the year's most high-profile new openings, including MGM National Harbor in North America and Wynn Palace in Macau, in addition to several other casinos in North America, Latin America and Asia. We are also responsible for the new VLT central systems in Greece and Sweden.

The deployment of our service window solution at Stations Casinos was another significant milestone in the year and will help deliver a significantly enhanced guest experience. Our PlaySpot and Cardless Connect systems offerings are transforming the industry by bringing gaming experiences to mobile devices. This extends play time for existing players and potentially attracts new players, providing a seamless user experience.

Global customer interest in these open, add-on system solutions is very encouraging and they are important pillars of our interactive growth strategy for both Lottery and Gaming. We had mixed results with our social and interactive operations. DoubleDown trends were disappointing in 2016.

Daily active users declined with the proliferation of competing apps that offered compelling social features and mobile functionality. We are actively working on improving DoubleDown's performance, including investment in technology to offer a more engaging player experience, particularly on mobile devices. We will also launch a second standalone social gaming app focused on our popular staple games in the coming months.

We had better performance in Interactive. We experienced progressive improvement at both our International and Italy segments throughout 2016. International achieved double-digit growth, driven by new customer demand for games from our premium content library, notably Cleopatra and Wheel of Fortune.

Italy's performance benefited from a stronger portfolio of games, in addition to a number of organizational and technological improvements, resulting in a double-digit increase in monthly active accounts by the end of the year. The last strategic objective we discuss was to protect our market position in every main product vertical in Italy, and we accomplished this goal. This was an important achievement in this large, highly profitable market for us.

We are far and away leader in lotteries. Our gaming machines benefit from being in the best locations and from the improved product offer. And as I just mentioned, our interactive operations improved during the year. There is an interesting digital opportunity for us in Italy, especially in lottery, as mobile enables us to market and deliver our products to a larger pool of players.

As you know, our business is global and spans the world's gaming spectrum. IGT has a long history of driving growth through compelling innovation in content and technology. We see opportunities for growth across all segments and geographies.

Governments around the world are continually in search of new sources of funds and regulating gaming is a natural way to generate new revenues. Lottery is an attractive and stable business, supported by long-term contracts. It is expected to grow at the low to mid-single digit rate over the next three to five years.

In Gaming, we have the right strategy to gain back share in North America and leverage our investment in games, [arbor] and technology on a global footprint. Let me wrap up by saying that our focus remains on satisfying our customers' needs by exceeding their expectation of service and value.

We do this by being an integral partner in their success, providing players with entertaining content and state-of-the-art technology, by remaining focused on customers and play engagement, something we are uniquely capable of doing, having both [B2B] and B2C expertise. We will continue to grow our business and create value for our shareholders. Now I will turn the call over to Alberto.

Thank you, Marco, and hello to all of you. Our fourth-quarter financial results are summarized here on slide 9. Revenue dropped 2% in constant currency, as a strong global lottery service revenue growth was more than offset by lower gaming service revenue, mostly at DoubleDown.

Adjusted EBITDA was 6% lower, mostly due to the large Italy VAT credit we had in the prior year, as well as higher SG&A costs. Adjusted EPS grew to $0.88 from $0.63, as we had some favorable tax settlement in the fourth quarter of 2016. Let's now look at our operating divisions, beginning with North America Gaming and Interactive on slide 10.

Gaming service revenue was primarily impacted by lower installed base compared to the fourth quarter of 2015. A decline in daily active user was the primary driver at DoubleDown. Product sales increased 20% in the quarter, driven by large system sales at MGM National Harbor and Palms, the contribution of a recent IP settlement, a portion of which is recurring, and revenue associated with gaming machines shipped to MGM National Harbor in the third quarter.

We shipped 5,419 gaming machines, compared to 6,597 units in the same period last year, which included an additional 1,100 Canadian VLTs. Casino replacement units rose 5% year-over-year, reflecting strong demand for our S3000 and CrystalDual cabinets. Operating income largely reflects lower gaming service and DoubleDown revenue, partially offset by improved product sales in the quarter.

Turning to North America Lottery on slide 11, total revenue rose 6%. Same-store revenue growth was driven by strong performance in instant ticket for the third consecutive year. Indiana was among the best performing states, due to strong holiday sales and the introduction of a popular $10 oversized scratch ticket. Multistate jackpot performance was modestly below the prior year's level, after many quarters of above average results.

The growth in product sales came from increased instant ticket printing revenue, particularly in Texas. Operating income was up substantially from the prior year, revenue growth and lower depreciation and amortization associated with several recent lottery contract extensions.

Moving to International on slide 12, revenue declined 15% at constant currency. Broad based lottery performance drove 2.6% to same-store revenue growth, with strength in EMEA and Latin America once again partially offset by weakness in the UK. On a constant currency basis, Gaming Service revenue increased 6%.

The installed base grew to 10,453 from 9,400 units in the fourth quarter of 2015, on growth in Eastern Europe, South Africa and Mexico. The installed base was up despite approximately 600 units converted to sales in Europe. The decline in product sales is mostly due to lottery product sales, reflecting the natural variability of that business.

In Gaming, terminal sales were down on lower unit volume, although gaming system sales were up double-digit in the quarter. Operating income declined on lower revenues Our Italy results are on slide 13.

In the fourth quarter, we had one month of amortization of the new Lotto concession fee for $8 million. Similar to our Scratch and Win contract, Lotto fee amortization will be booked against revenues at a rate of approximately $24 million per quarter. In order to better understand the accounting mechanism of the new Lotto concession, we have prepared a dedicated slide that can be found in the Appendix of this presentation. The Investor Relations team is happy to walk you through those mechanisms after this call.

Lotto wagers rose a remarkable 15% in the fourth quarter, which included significant Late Number activity. 10eLotto and Numero ORO performance was also strong, growing 8% on top of the 14% growth in the prior year. Excluding the effect of Late Numbers, Lotto wagers rose 2%.

As anticipated, the Late Number activity has moderated since the January draw of Late Number 53 of the National Wheel, after an extraordinary 257 draws. Scratch and Win wagers were down in the period, something we attribute to increased player interest in Late Numbers.

Spot betting wagers grew 6% in the fourth quarter, with particular strength in live wagers. Italy fourth quarter operating income was relatively stable in constant currency, as a strong Lotto growth compensated for the large VAT credit, $14 million, in the prior year.

On slide 14, you have a consolidated view of reported revenues and adjusted operating income for the quarter. As I have just described, global lottery growth and higher North America gaming product sales were more than offset by lower gaming service revenue. Adjusted operating income reflects the same adjusted EBITDA dynamics I reviewed earlier.

On slide 15, we have summarized the results for the full year. Revenue were up 2% in constant currency, reflecting strong growth in lottery service revenue that was partially offset by DoubleDown and lower lottery product sales. Adjusted EBITDA of $1.755 billion was in line with our guidance of $1.74 billion to $1.79 billion.

CapEx was $557 million for the year, slightly over our most recent guidance due to increased investment in Gaming, but well below our original guidance for the year. Approximately 80% of our CapEx were used for lottery maintenance and investment in the Gaming installed base. The remaining 20% was used for growth initiatives.

Let's turn to our net leverage profile, which you can see on slide 16. Net debt at the end of the fourth quarter was $7.6 billion and compares favorably to our outlook of $7.7 billion to $7.9 billion.

Even if we exclude the FX benefit, at 4.31 times our leverage ratio is at its lower level of the year, despite the net $409 million of Italy upfront concession payment we made during the year. As a reminder, a third and final upfront concession payment of EUR170 million is scheduled for the second quarter of 2017, of which we are responsible for approximately EUR105 million.

Our cash flow is shown here on slide 17. During the year, we generated close to $1 billion in cash from operation. This is after significant interest and cash tax payment.

Working capital was also a use of cash during the year, mostly due to higher gaming inventory to support our new games and cabinets. The free cash flow you see here is before the capital contribution from minority partners to the Lotto concession. Adjusted for that, our free cash flow was modestly positive in a year where we had high CapEx.

On slide 18, we have our outlook for 2017. We currently expect adjusted EBITDA of $1.68 billion to $1.76 billion for the full-year period. We are using an average euro-dollar exchange rate of $1.10 for all the guidance we are providing today. As a reminder, every $0.01 change in the euro-dollar rate has a $9 million impact on adjusted EBITDA and $35 million impact on net debt.

Implicit in our full-year outlook is an expectation of solid underlying profit expansion, particularly in the North American Gaming and Interactive and International segments. This growth essentially compensates for approximately $65 million in lottery benefits we had with Powerball and Late Numbers in 2016. It also offsets approximately $35 million of headwinds in 2017, primarily from impacts associated with the new Lotto concession.

We expect 2017 to evolve as a tale of two halves, with difficult year-to-year profit comparison in the first half transitioning to growth the back half. There are some discrete reasons for this. First, the timing of product sales.

Second, some pressure at our North American Gaming and Interactive segment on the installed base and DoubleDown. We expect improved trends in the installed base and the DoubleDown later in the year.

We also face difficult North American comparison with last year's record Powerball jackpot, which was a significant contributor to revenue and profit growth in the first quarter of 2016. Finally, the fee structure and the cost of the new Lotto concession.

Turning to CapEx, we expect a total investment of about $625 million to $675 million. This includes about $100 million for growth CapEx and approximately $100 million related to the delayed timing of the new Florida contract.

It also includes the capital required for the recent Georgia and Texas early extension. Those contracts were originally expiring in 2018 and 2020, but have now been extended to 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Finally, the Italian Lotto concession will require gross capital outlay of about $320 million, $190 million related to the final upfront concession payment and $130 million for network and infrastructure upgrades. We are also responsible for $195 million of the gross amount, which the balance we're counting from our minority partners.

Net debt is expected to be $7.6 billion to $7.8 billion at the end of 2017. As we have demonstrated over the last two years, our lottery and gaming operations generate strong operating cash flow that have enabled us to consistently improve our net debt and leverage profile.

Capital expenditure for the wins and extension for the several important North American lotteries and the final Italian Lotto concession payment are important users of cash flow in 2017. Paying down debt remains a key priority.

There is some additional guidance provided here on cash taxes and purchase price amortization to help you forecast the adjusted figures we report. We operate a diverse portfolio business in growing global market segment. We are allocating capital to securing stable cash flow from long-term lottery contracts and to developing the content and technology necessary to strengthen our position in gaming.

At this point, we'd like to open the call for your questions. Operator, could you please proceed?

(Operator Instructions)

Barry Jonas, BofA.

Hello, guys. Just a couple of quick questions. So for Gaming in North America, I completely understand the new products coming out in the second half and maybe some higher expectations for that. But I guess just generally speaking, as you talk to your customer base, what are your thoughts about the replacement cycle this year in general?

Hi, Barry. It's Marco. We, as always, we see that the performance of our customers are doing better. We do not know how much that will translate into additional investment in our slot machines, in the slot machines now in the market. Therefore, as we did last year, we are planning a relative stable replacement rate, while we should expect lower contribution coming from the new openings.

Great. And then just a question on Italy. Can you give us maybe a regulatory update in terms of your expectations for any new taxes this year, as well as the timing for the new sports book licenses?

Look, regarding taxation, it's totally unpredictable. And there is now, the Italian government that is looking at the maneuver for raising additional money for being compliant with the European Union request. But apparently they are not touching gaming. But you never know til the very end. This is reality. And we will see the discussion that will be done in fall, when they will approach the budget law. For the time being, unfortunately, I do not have any insight to share with you.

Okay. Great. And then just lastly on Scratch and Win, clearly you guys are investing in the instant ticket business. Do you think that when the Italian Scratch and Win contract comes up for renewal, would you expect to have a much bigger contribution in terms of the JV economics, or else in terms of providing tickets to the joint venture, in terms of your overall penetration?

I understand the question, but it's too early to reply to this question. This is a discussion that will be raised later on.

Got it. Okay. Thank you very much.

Thank you, Barry.

Chad Beynon, Macquarie.

Hi, guys. This is actually John on for Chad. You mentioned earlier in the call you've had some nice system wins in the last few years. Can you help us think about the backlog for this business and generally what customers like about your product these days?

Sorry, John, you dropped out. Which business are you referring to?

Sorry, the systems business.

This is Alberto here, Chad. The performance on the system business, particularly in this quarter, has been particularly positive for us, because we had National Harbor, obviously, and we had another delivery at Palms in North America. Also, we had good activity in the international region. So with Genting in Malaysia and another installation in South America. So overall, it has been -- and Marco was, in his remarks, also remembering what has happened during the year -- so the business is going with the station, for example, so the systems business has been quite positive in 2016 and for the future. Marco?

No, but I think, as we said since the very beginning, the system would have been an area of focus of our company. And we are seeing the PlaySpot application, we are seeing the Cardless Connect, that are getting traction in our customers. And we are extensively discussion -- sorry, we are extensively discussing -- with many of them in order to implement these add-on on their systems. So we are positive about our ability to develop that segment over the next years.

Great. That's good color. And then switching gears a bit, some of the other social gaming companies have the strategy of having multiple brands, so that there's less of a ceiling. Have you guys considered this approach and can you help us think about that outlook?

This is exactly what we are seeing in the market. And we are working, as one of the main pillar we have in our set of actions, to revert the trend in DoubleDown. And as anticipated, we are going to launch, at the end of the second quarter, a new offer totally dedicated to our Stepper contents. And we rely on it as part of our strategy to revert the trend in DoubleDown.

Great. That's very helpful. That's it for me, guys. Thanks for taking my questions.

(Operator Instructions)

David Farber, Credit Suisse.

Good morning, guys. How are you?

Hi, David. We are good. What about you?

We're great. I had two quick questions. The first was just, there was some local articles of the Circuit Court in Florida, perhaps, about a lottery contract that was made invalid. We had a number of guys that asked us, and I'd be curious to hear your thoughts, given it seems timely, what you think is going to happen with respect to Florida, what you think cash flows will be, if there's timing, how do you guys think about some of the local news coming out of Florida with respect to the contract there? And then I had a follow-up. Thanks.

I think the answer will be shorter than the question. Because it's a very intense political situation in Florida, and until the matter is resolved, our previous contract in Florida will remain in place while the new one gets sorted out. It is important to keep in mind that we competed and won the new lottery contract in an open and well organized process. Further, proceeds from Florida lottery, which amounts to $1 billion, funds the education system in Florida, a critical need. So in essence, we are monitoring the situation as it develops. But we feel we are in good shape because we have the current contract and we won a regular contract.

And David, let me add one thing that was in your question, regarding the CapEx. As I mentioned, it is included in this year. Obviously, if there is a delay, this is going to be the third year in a row that we include in the guidance and then is moved forward.

Okay. Thank you. And then maybe just a little bit more color on DoubleDown. Maybe if you can talk a little bit more about what's driving some of the weakness there. And then somewhat related, does its recent performance make you consider M&A, perhaps, like some of the other operators that are in the interactive space? And that's it for me. Thanks.

Look, one of the reasons why DoubleDown suffering is an increased competition. And increased competition, it has been very often driven by new applications. And so the first answer regards our willingness to launch our own application, relying on one of the strongest segments of our gaming portfolio. In addition to that, we are investing to upgrade our platform and improving our offering on Android devices.

We were lagging behind, accordingly to our technologists, and we have invested in order to reduce the gap. We are supporting our loyalty program, which has been gaining traction after being launched, and we will continue to promote it. And in addition to that, we intend to improve and expand our content, as always. Recent Gamings introduction, we recently introduced a new [Ellen] title, Lucky Larry's Lobstermania 2, has been successful at improving player engagement and retention. So we are working on these areas, and we are getting more and more confident that these actions will result in a return to growth.

Talking about the M&A activities, as you can imagine there is a lot of activity, the interest in the social casino space, as you would expect. All major players are engaged. DoubleDown is a valuable asset and we regularly receive interest from potential buyers. These markets, because the social casino market is attractive and a natural complement to our activities. So what I can say is that we believe we have the right strategies to grow DoubleDown organically as part of IGT.

Helpful. Thanks. That's it for me.

David Katz, Telsey Group.

Hi. Good morning.

Hi, David.

So with respect to DoubleDown -- and I apologize, because we're all piling on DoubleDown -- however, when we look at that business and we see what -- and I know other questions have asked about additional brands and apps, et cetera -- but weaving that into the systems business that you have and using it in a different way, rather than a B2C way, but rather in a B2B way and using it the way one of your competitors is integrating it along with its enterprise system business. Is that, or other similar strategy, something that you are or would like to consider?

David, I would say that our focus for DoubleDown right now is on the B2C side. Because it's a valuable business. There has been some, and in this business change happens quickly. So for example, on the multi app, so we have devised a strategy that is still B2C focused in order to recover what we have lost in the second half of this year. Marco has told you about the games. I told you about the multi apps. But we have recently launched, for example, a customer loyalty program there, and most importantly, at the end of the second quarter, the [sector]. So this is what we are focused on, and it's the B2C side.

Got it. And one more question, if I may. If you could update us, Alberto, just looking through the balance sheet and if there may be any opportunities forthcoming to refinance or lower your interest costs in any areas, as we've seen some others with much higher cost of capital take advantage of. Are there any of those opportunities for you in the near term?

We have, first of all, a maturity of the bonds in 2018 in February, there is a legacy [G-tech] bond for EUR500 million that it's very close. At the moment, we have the credit facility that has ample liquidity, which it's obviously for us a sort of insurance in case the capital market have problems. But right now, the liquidity is good and so on. So we will evaluate during the year what is the best way to go to refinance our debt, taking also into consideration what is going to happen during the year in terms of growth opportunity, Marco has mentioned some extension. So I think that in the remaining part of the year, definitely we'll decide what is the right way to deal with these maturity that we have in 2018.

And one last one, if I may, in terms of new slot product, either in the for sale or recurring revenue business, are you getting any results that you can share from the testing phase of any of your new products or any updates on products that we should expect to start rolling out that you mentioned later in the year?

No, I think I can provide you on some titles for sales. We developed some titles that went out quite well from the tests and are already performing also on the floor. I'm talking about our Golden Egypt, Ocean Magic, Big Five Safari. And I suggest that to give you some examples. And we are positive on it, because we are realizing that the customers are relying on the performance of those games much more than they did with launches in the past, with new launches in the past, because they see the performance of the games in the field. And so we are rather positive on it. And then, you appreciate it, that in the second half of the year, when it comes to the installed base, we were relying very much on Wheel of Fortune 3-D. And as a matter of fact, it performed quite well and was one of the drivers of the performance we had our installed base in the fourth quarter. So we expect that also the new cabinets and the new content that will coming in during the year will contribute to our performance in the store base, as well.

Got it. Thank you very much. Thanks for taking my questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Domenico Ghilotti, Equita.

Good afternoon. A few questions. The first is a follow-up on DoubleDown. In the previous quarter, you mentioned that one of the potential drivers could have been also the expansion into new markets. Is this something that you are still considering or how do you want to focus, first of all, on the [Fed] turn around in domestic market?

Then on your guidance for 2017, you have been providing some color on the main drivers. Can you maybe elaborate a little bit more, for example, in terms of underlying trends in the North American, International and Italian lotteries? What do you see the evolution net of these tough comps, so net of the one-off late number and PowerBall mega jackpot?

Okay. For the first question, Domenico, regarding the first question, we delayed an international expansion. We are much more focused on the actions I've just described in order to turn around the business, mainly and in the geographies where we are currently present and we are very much focused on North America.

Regarding the guidance, reality is that our guidance for 2017 are assuming solid EBITDA growth for our underlining business. Because as you recall, we benefit from the record PowerBall in 2016, jackpot in the first quarter, and we also, as you were remembering, had a strong later number in Italy beginning in Q2. And these in total are benefits that we estimate, as Alberto said, in about $65 million that we have and you have to take into consideration when you look at the starting point for our 2017 focus.

You also need to appreciate that we are anticipating approximately $35 million of headwinds in 2017 that are related to the new Lotto performance -- sorry, concession. So I think you can appreciate that the growth of the underlining business implied in our guidance. Now where this growth is coming. Lottery is expected to continue to grow between 3% and 5%, as we are always planning net of all the comparison with the previous year, the benefits, let me put it this way, we enjoyed in the previous years.

But the most part of the growth will come from the Gaming business. That is where we are expecting to grow. Because we can build on the stability we achieved in 2016 and build the programs that we were discussing it about are the main growth driver we expect to achieve the guidance that we have just described.

Okay. So should we expect that in terms of installed base, we will start to see really an increase in the installed base in your North American Gaming business?

We can say that we expect overall, considering the North American and the International part of the business, a growth in the overall installed base, yes.

Okay. And last question is just the additional clarification on the trends. How do you see the Italian market, still as a stable market [net of the late] number, or more struggling or maybe slightly more positive? How you see the consumption trend?

Talking with everybody, I'm always saying that the Italian market is almost a stable market then. Sometimes, I'm surprised by our performance. Because last year, we grew in all categories of the Italian market. But if I look at Italy overall and I look at the Italian market, I see it as a stable market, where you can have some innovation that works very well, as it happened with the Lotto in the last couple of years. But the market overall, if I look at the per capita consumption, if I look at the weight of these sector on the Italian GDP, I think is one of the most developed markets in the world.

Okay. Thank you.

John DeCree, Union Gaming.

Hello, everyone. Thank you. I think you just covered most of my questions about the EBITDA guidance for the year, but did want to ask, thinking about, you guys did a good job of telling us some the headwinds in the year. When we think about something like Greece coming online and OPAB, wanted to get your thoughts on that timing, and then if there's anything else, new businesses that you expect to come online, whether on the lottery side or the gaming side as the year progresses, as we think about the cadence of guidance throughout the year.

I think that talking about Greece, we started the deployment of our machines. You know that we deployed, first of all, the central system for the entire operation and we started deploying the machines. So we do not expect, I would say, any surprise. But I do not expect anything that should slow down the deployment of the machines in Greece. And I'm not sure that I got the rest of the question, to be honest with you. What were you referring to?

Other potential contracts or major shipments in any jurisdiction that might be coming online later this year.

There is Colombia that is something we are looking carefully. They are discussing on a VLT program in that country, and that would be a good opportunity to have, because it would be a program that, according to what we understand, could be similar to the Italian program and therefore, that would represent an opportunity, as long as it will materialize.

And one follow-up, if I could, maybe Alberto, for you. When we think about CapEx, I know some of the timing is a little bit hard to pin, especially with Florida and so on, but is there any color you can give us on the cadence of CapEx spend, if it's heavily weighted to the back half or the front half, even, any color you could give us there?

It should be, the CapEx is basically the results of the several wins that we had very recently. Now as it happens for Florida, there could be delays. So usually what we do is we stick to the contract when we give you the guidance and then normally, there are some delays. And therefore, we have changed the CapEx guidance often during the year. We change the CapEx guidance often during the year, we're saying, because we quantify the delays, and therefore, we give you an update. And therefore, expect, depending on the development of Florida, we will give you an update regarding that.

Let me, however, remind you that there is an important, in terms of CapEx outside of the normal maintenance CapEx, there is an important maturity that is the Lotto in the second quarter, as I mentioned in my speech, where we will have a large planned investment for the remaining upfront fee, and during the entire year for the deployment of the new technology.

Okay. Thanks for all the color, everyone.

Thank you.

Thank you. As there are no further questions in the queue, I would now like to turn the call back to Mr. Marco Sala, CEO, for any additional or closing remarks.

Thank you all for your questions and for your interest in IGT. We achieved a lot in 2016 and we are very grateful to everyone throughout the organization for their hard work and contribution to our accomplishments. There is much more for us to do, but I'm confident that we are pursuing the right strategy, that we are developing the right products and solutions, and that we have the right teams around the world to meet our objective. With that, I wish you all a good day.

That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.