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Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Intercorp Financial Services third-quarter 2024 conference call. (Operator Instructions)
早上好,歡迎參加 Intercorp Financial Services 2024 年第三季電話會議。(操作員說明)
Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。
(Operator Instructions)
(操作員說明)
It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Ivan Peill from InspIR Group. Sir, you may begin.
現在我很高興將電話轉給 InspIR 集團的 Ivan Peill 先生。先生,您可以開始了。
Ivan Peill - IR
Ivan Peill - IR
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. On today's call, Intercorp Financial Services will discuss its third quarter 2024 earnings.
謝謝大家,大家早安。在今天的電話會議上,Intercorp Financial Services 將討論其 2024 年第三季財報。
We are very pleased to have with us Mr. Luis Felipe Castellanos, Chief Executive Officer, Intercorp Financial Services; Ms. Michela Casassa, Chief Financial Officer, Intercorp Financial Services; Mr. Carlos Tori, Chief Executive Officer, Interbank; Mr. Gonzalo Basadre, Chief Executive Officer, Interseguro; Mr. Bruno Ferreccio, Chief Executive Officer, Inteligo. They will be discussing the results that were distributed by the company yesterday.
我們很高興能邀請到 Intercorp Financial Services 執行長 Luis Felipe Castellanos 先生; Michela Casassa 女士,Intercorp Financial Services 財務長; Interbank執行長Carlos Tori先生; Gonzalo Basadre 先生,Interseguro 執行長; Bruno Ferreccio 先生,Inteligo 執行長。他們將討論公司昨天發布的結果。
There is also a webcast video presentation to accompany the discussion during this call. If you did not receive a copy of the presentation or the earnings report, they are now available on the company's website, ifs.com.pe. Otherwise, if you need any assistance today, please call InspIR Group in New York at (646) 940-8843.
在本次電話會議期間,還有一個網路廣播視訊演示來配合討論。如果您沒有收到簡報或收益報告的副本,現在可以在公司網站 ifs.com.pe 上取得它們。否則,如果您今天需要任何幫助,請致電紐約的 InspIR Group,電話 (646) 940-8843。
I would like to remind you that today's call is for investors and analysts only. Therefore, questions from the media will not be taken. Please be advised that forward-looking statements may be made during this conference call. These do not account for future economic circumstances, industry conditions, the company's future performance or financial results.
我想提醒您,今天的電話會議僅針對投資者和分析師。因此,不會接受媒體的提問。請注意,本次電話會議期間可能會做出前瞻性陳述。這些並未考慮未來的經濟環境、產業狀況、公司的未來業績或財務表現。
As such, statements made are based on several assumptions and factors that could change, causing actual results to materially differ from the current expectations. For a complete note on forward-looking statements, please refer to the earnings presentation and report issued yesterday.
因此,所做的陳述是基於可能發生變化的若干假設和因素,導致實際結果與目前預期有重大差異。有關前瞻性陳述的完整說明,請參閱昨天發布的收益演示和報告。
It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Luis Felipe Castellanos, Chief Executive Officer of Intercorp Financial Services, for his opening remarks. Mr. Castellanos, please go ahead, sir.
現在我很高興邀請 Intercorp Financial Services 執行長 Luis Felipe Castellanos 先生致開幕詞。卡斯特拉諾斯先生,請繼續,先生。
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. Good morning, all, and welcome to our third quarter 2024 earnings call. I want to thank you for attending our call today. I would like to start by addressing the macro situation in our country.
謝謝。大家早安,歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我要感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。我想先談談我國的宏觀情勢。
In the first eight months of 2024, economic growth performed positively with 3.5% growth in August, accumulating at 2.9% year-to-date GDP growth, mainly due to the recovery in consumption. A slightly improved market sentiment for consumers and businesses lead us to expect GDP growth of about 3% for this year, making Peru the country with the highest growth in the region.
2024年前8個月,經濟成長表現良好,8月成長3.5%,年初至今GDP成長2.9%,主要得益於消費復甦。消費者和企業的市場情緒略有改善,我們預計今年 GDP 將成長約 3%,使秘魯成為該地區成長最快的國家。
This week, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, APEC, CEO Conference is taking place in Lima, highlighting the relevance of Peru within this important forum. It is a great chance to showcase Peru and its investment opportunities.
本週,亞太經濟合作組織(APEC)執行長會議在利馬舉行,凸顯了秘魯在這場重要論壇中的重要性。這是展示秘魯及其投資機會的絕佳機會。
Looking ahead to 2025, we are cautiously optimistic about the future growth of Peru as we expect private investments in infrastructure and mining activity to reactivate. Business activity will continue to generate employment with a positive impact on the economy. This quarter's results for IFS confirm that we are emerging from the most challenging phase of the credit cycle.
展望 2025 年,我們對秘魯的未來成長持謹慎樂觀態度,因為我們預計基礎設施和採礦活動的私人投資將重新活躍。商業活動將繼續創造就業,對經濟產生正面影響。IFS 本季的業績證實我們正在擺脫信貸週期最具挑戰性的階段。
On top of the liquidity events of the previous quarter, like the [fourth] release of pension plans and the availability of severance indemnity deposits, which accelerated the recovery, our results were supported by effective risk management, diversification of our income and the ability to make quick decisions with flexibility and efficiency. This is why we believe that, in line with improved expectations of Peru, the positive trend should continue.
除了上一季的流動性事件(例如退休金計畫的第四次發布和遣散費存款的發放等)加速了復甦之外,我們的業績還得到了有效的風險管理、收入多元化和能力的支持。這就是為什麼我們認為,隨著秘魯預期的改善,積極的趨勢應該會持續下去。
As mentioned, IFS has demonstrated resilience during this credit cycle. At Interbank, we have been able to grow our market share in loans and deposits, growing in Commercial Banking and now starting to grow again in the consumer portfolio. The cost of risk is converging to normalized levels as we see an improvement in our customers' ability to pay paired with the enhanced internal models and improved underwriting standards that should allow us to continue growing profitably.
如前所述,IFS 在本次信貸週期中表現出了韌性。在Interbank,我們已經能夠增加貸款和存款的市場份額,在商業銀行業務中不斷成長,現在又開始在消費者投資組合中再次成長。風險成本正在趨於正常水平,因為我們看到客戶支付能力的提高,加上內部模型的增強和承保標準的提高,這將使我們能夠繼續獲利成長。
Finally, Interbank and Izipay continue to capture business opportunities together, while PLIN continues to engage users, generating more primacy from our customers. At Interseguro, we have seen relevant growth in premiums, mainly in private annuities and individual life. We continue to be the market leader in annuities.
最後,Interbank 和 Izipay 繼續共同捕捉商機,而 PLIN 繼續吸引用戶,從我們的客戶那裡獲得更多的主導權。在 Interseguro,我們看到保費的相關成長,主要是私人年金和個人壽險。我們仍然是年金市場的領導者。
Our wealth management business had a positive quarter in its core business as assets under management reached another all-time high, and the investment portfolio had a good quarter.
財富管理核心業務季度表現良好,資產管理規模再創新高,投資組合季度表現良好。
Now, I wanted to take the opportunity to address two independent events that occurred concurrently at the end of last month, as we communicated to our clients through our official channels.
現在,我想藉此機會談談上個月底同時發生的兩起獨立事件,當時我們透過官方管道與客戶溝通。
First, an operational issue in Interbank which led to service interruptions between October 30 and 31. Normal service was restored within hours of such event. Second, and then related to the first, an event whereby a third unauthorized party illegally accessed and exposed certain data from a group of clients. Upon verification, we confirmed that no data that allows transactions was exposed.
首先,Interbank 出現營運問題,導致 10 月 30 日至 31 日期間服務中斷。此類事件發生後數小時內恢復了正常服務。第二個事件與第一個事件相關,未經授權的第三方非法存取並洩露了一組客戶端的某些資料。經核實,我們確認沒有暴露允許交易的數據。
We immediately reinforced security measures, including special monitoring of operations and client information, ensuring that both deposits and financial products are protected and customers could continue to operate normally and safely.
我們立即強化安全措施,包括對營運和客戶資訊進行專案監控,確保存款和金融產品受到保護,確保客戶繼續正常安全運作。
As you know, our key strategic priority continues to be achieving digital excellence for our customers. We are focused on becoming the leading digital platform with profitable growth to create the best digital experience for our customers through development of our analytical capabilities and always leveraging on the best talent.
如您所知,我們的關鍵策略重點仍然是為客戶實現數位卓越。我們致力於成為具有獲利成長的領先數位平台,透過發展我們的分析能力並始終利用最優秀的人才,為客戶創造最佳的數位體驗。
Finally, I wanted to share some good news about sustainability. Our CSA score has seen a substantial improvement, reaching a score of 69 from 61. This is a reflection of our commitment to build a sustainable business. Going forward, we continue to be optimistic about IFS' outlook as we execute our long-term strategy.
最後,我想分享一些關於永續發展的好消息。我們的 CSA 分數有了顯著的提高,從 61 分達到了 69 分。這反映了我們致力於建立永續發展業務的承諾。展望未來,我們在執行長期策略時繼續對 IFS 的前景持樂觀態度。
Now let me pass it on to Michela for further explanation of our quarter's results. Thank you.
現在讓我將其轉交給 Michela,以進一步解釋我們季度的業績。謝謝。
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Luis Felipe. Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to Intercorp Financial Services 2024 Third Quarter Earnings Call.
謝謝你,路易斯費利佩。早上好,歡迎大家參加 Intercorp Financial Services 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。
To begin, we would like to review the macro-outlook for Peru. Continuous improvement in economic indicators, on slide 2, GDP for the third quarter grew around 4% with August alone showing 3.5% growth. This result brings the first eight months of the year to accumulated growth of 2.9%, close to full year market expectation of 3%.
首先,我們想回顧一下秘魯的宏觀前景。經濟指標持續改善,投影片2顯示,第三季GDP成長4%左右,其中8月份GDP成長3.5%。這項結果使得今年前8個月累計成長2.9%,接近全年市場預期的3%。
Primary sectors drove the growth, accumulating 3.8% for the year, driven by improvements in the performance of several mining units. The nonprimary sector also accumulated 2.7% in the same period, reflecting increased consumption of both goods and services.
在多個採礦單位業績改善的推動下,第一產業推動了成長,全年累計成長 3.8%。同期非初級產業也累計成長 2.7%,反映出商品和服務消費的成長。
We also wanted to mention that the IMF has updated its growth estimates for both 2024 and 2025. They have adjusted the estimates for LATAM countries upward for 2024, but downward for 2025. Peru is expected to lead the region with a 3% GDP growth in 2024. For 2025, the IMF projects a 2.6% growth with a stronger first half due to the pre-electoral year, which typically reduces dynamism in the second half.
我們也想提一下,國際貨幣基金組織更新了 2024 年和 2025 年的成長預測。他們上調了拉丁美洲國家 2024 年的預測,但下調了 2025 年的預測。秘魯預計 2024 年 GDP 將成長 3%,引領該地區。國際貨幣基金組織預計 2025 年經濟將成長 2.6%,由於選舉前年,上半年成長強勁,這通常會降低下半年的活力。
Furthermore, monetary policy remains one of Peru's main highlights. We were among the first in the region to control inflation, hence one of the first to cut the reference rate, reducing it by 275 basis points from the peak of 7.75% to the current 5%. We believe the Central Bank still has room to continue reducing rates as long as the Fed continues to cut as expected.
此外,貨幣政策仍然是秘魯的主要亮點之一。我們是該地區最先控制通膨的國家之一,因此也是最先下調參考利率的國家之一,將參考利率從 7.75% 峰值降至目前的 5%,降低了 275 個基點。我們認為,只要聯準會繼續如預期降息,央行仍有繼續降息的空間。
Finally, we continue to see a stable currency as the depreciation of the sol for the year was only 2% while the rest of the region was over 10%.
最後,我們繼續看到貨幣穩定,因為今年索爾的貶值僅為 2%,而該地區其他地區的貶值超過 10%。
On slide 3, consistent with the previous slide, we observed optimistic leading indicators. We see business confidence improving during the year. The Central Bank, in its latest report, is expecting private investment to grow 2.3% this year and has increased its expectations for 2025 from 3% growth to 4.1%, in line with a more optimistic view of the Peruvian economy.
在投影片 3 上,與上一張投影片一致,我們觀察到樂觀的領先指標。我們看到商業信心在這一年有所改善。央行在最新報告中預計今年私人投資將成長2.3%,並將2025年的成長預期從3%上調至4.1%,這與對秘魯經濟更為樂觀的看法一致。
This is good news as the expectation of the level of investments for the following years is increasing, first, because of our reactivation of infrastructure projects, which are expected to remain at high levels over the next three years, and second, due to mining projects, both in existing mines to optimize and extend their remaining life and to new projects and expansions. Some examples are Tia Maria, Toquepala, Cuajone, Morococha, and for infrastructure, the Linea 2 of the Metro, the Anillo Vial Periférico, among others.
這是個好消息,因為對未來幾年投資水平的預期正在增加,一是因為我們重新啟動了基礎設施項目,預計未來三年投資水平將保持在高水平,二是因為採礦項目,無論是在現有礦山中優化和延長其剩餘壽命,還是在新項目和擴建中。一些例子包括 Tia Maria、Toquepala、Cuajone、Morococha,而對於基礎設施,有 Metro 的 Linea 2、Anillo Vial Periférico 等。
On the other hand, consumer confidence remains on the positive side. As of August, we have seen a gradual recovery in formal employment and a year-over-year growth in real formal wages. This trend is positively impacting private consumption as one of the factors driving internal demand.
另一方面,消費者信心依然樂觀。截至8月份,我們看到正式就業逐步復甦,實際正式薪資較去年同期成長。這一趨勢正在對私人消費產生正面影響,成為推動內部需求的因素之一。
It is important to mention that part of the recovery in consumption was also accelerated by the pension fund withdrawals and the availability of severance indemnity deposits. Consequently, there has been a recovery in the purchasing power of people, still slow, but already improving consumption levels.
值得一提的是,退休基金的提領和遣散費存款的發放也加速了消費的部分復甦。因此,人們的購買力有所復甦,儘管速度仍然緩慢,但消費水準已經有所改善。
Finally, continuing with the positive note, Moody's and Fitch have changed their outlook for Peru from negative to stable this quarter. Moving on, in this context, we continue to build on our three key strategic priorities, which are, first, we aim for profitable growth to become a leading digital platform.
最後,穆迪和惠譽繼續保持積極的態度,將本季對秘魯的前景從負面調整為穩定。在此背景下,我們繼續發展我們的三個關鍵策略重點,首先,我們的目標是實現獲利成長,成為領先的數位平台。
We continue to grow our customer base double-digit across all segments, consistent with macroeconomic recovery. IFS has continued with its solid recovery, registering a net income that more than doubled in the third quarter compared to the same period last year and already achieving over 15% ROE in the third quarter.
隨著宏觀經濟的復甦,我們所有細分市場的客戶群繼續以兩位數的速度成長。IFS持續穩健復甦,第三季淨利較去年同期成長一倍多,第三季淨資產收益率已超過15%。
Second, we strive to create the best digital experience with more than 81% of our Retail banking customers being digital and improving NPS for retail banking to 66 points as of the end of September.
其次,我們努力創造最佳的數位化體驗,截至 9 月底,超過 81% 的零售銀行客戶已數位化,並將零售銀行的 NPS 提高到 66 點。
Third, we continue to focus on our core businesses, maintaining a significant market share in consumer banking loans at 22%, ranking second in the market. Our Retail deposit market share exceeds 15%, and we lead the market in annuities with over 31% market share.
第三是持續聚焦核心業務,消費銀行貸款市佔率維持在22%,位居市場第二。我們的零售存款市佔率超過 15%,年金市佔率超過 31%,處於市場領先地位。
Finally, in wealth management, assets under management continued to grow at double digits, reaching 19% year-over-year and surpassing previous maximums.
最後,在財富管理方面,管理資產持續以兩位數成長,年成長達到19%,超過了先前的最高水準。
Moving on, we will review four sections of our earnings presentation: sustainable growth, digital update, key businesses and finally, some takeaways. Let us start with the first section, which focuses on sustainable growth.
接下來,我們將回顧收益報告的四個部分:永續成長、數位化更新、關鍵業務,最後是一些要點。讓我們從第一部分開始,專注於永續成長。
On slide 7, we wanted to share our key messages for the quarter. First, improving banking and investment results, drive quarterly earnings recovery to grow by twofold year over year, reaching PEN390 million net income at IFS level. This results in an ROE that is now above 15%, an improvement from the previous quarter and on our path to our medium-term ROE goal.
在投影片 7 上,我們希望分享本季的關鍵資訊。首先,改善銀行和投資業績,推動季度獲利復甦年增兩倍,達到IFS水準的3.9億先令淨利。這使得 ROE 目前超過 15%,比上一季有所改善,並為我們實現中期 ROE 目標奠定了基礎。
Second, lower cost of risk translates into better results for Interbank with a decrease of 90 basis points for the quarter and 210 basis points from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2023. As such, we see better results for Interbank with a narrowing above 14%, higher than the previous quarter and last year.
其次,較低的風險成本意味著銀行間同業拆借業務的業績更好,本季下降了 90 個基點,較 2023 年第四季的峰值下降了 210 個基點。因此,我們看到銀行間同業拆借的業績較好,收窄至 14% 以上,高於上一季及去年。
Third, the cost of funds continues to improve, decreasing 70 basis points year-over-year, outperforming the system's average by 20 basis points. This improvement is mainly because of proactive management of efficient funding with growth around 13% year-over-year in deposits, both retail and commercial, leveraging on our synergies with Izipay, hence enhancing the funding mix. We have continued to gain market share in retail deposits, now at approximately 15%.
三是資金成本持續改善,較去年同期下降70個基點,高於系統平均20個基點。這項改善主要歸功於對高效融資的主動管理,利用我們與 Izipay 的協同效應,零售和商業存款年增約 13%,從而增強了融資組合。我們持續擴大零售存款市場份額,目前約為 15%。
Fourth, although this quarter loan growth has been moderate, we had good news as cash loan disbursements rebounded by 8% from the previous quarter. Additionally, we have continued gaining market share in key products with a 40 basis point quarterly increase in commercial banking and 10 basis points in consumer banking.
第四,雖然本季貸款成長溫和,但我們還是有好消息,現金貸款支出較上季反彈 8%。此外,我們持續擴大關鍵產品的市場份額,商業銀行業務季度成長 40 個基點,消費銀行業務季度成長 10 個基點。
Fifth, sustained growth in insurance premiums generates improvement in insurance core business as life insurance and private annuities grow nicely on a year-over-year basis on the local level.
五是保費持續成長帶動保險核心業務改善,地方壽險、私人年金較去年同期成長良好。
Finally, in wealth management, assets under management continued to grow nicely, reaching a historical maximum, driving fee income up while also gaining market share in Interfondos, our mutual fund company.
最後,在財富管理方面,管理資產持續良好成長,達到歷史最高水平,帶動手續費收入成長,同時也擴大了我們共同基金公司Interfondos的市場份額。
On slide 8, the PEN390 million net income in the quarter is double the net income reported last year and 36% above the previous quarter. This improvement implies an ROE above 15%, clearly on our path to our medium-term ROE goal, as previously mentioned.
在投影片 8 中,本季淨收入為 3.9 億先令,是去年報告淨收入的兩倍,比上一季高出 36%。如前所述,這項改善意味著 ROE 高於 15%,這顯然是我們實現中期 ROE 目標的道路。
In banking, the quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons are very positive. First, the cost of risk is closer to normalized levels; and second, better margins were achieved through a reduction in the cost of funds and increased yields from the investment portfolio. This has allowed net income to grow 52% compared to last year, reaching an ROE of 14.4%, which is over 400 basis points higher than the previous year, but still below our target.
在銀行業,季度環比和同比比較都非常積極。首先,風險成本更接近正常水準;其次,透過降低資金成本和提高投資組合的收益率,實現了更好的利潤率。這使得淨利潤比去年增長52%,股本回報率達到14.4%,比上年高出400多個基點,但仍低於我們的目標。
In the insurance business, core business remains solid while the recovery of the investment portfolio generates better results on a year-over-year basis.
保險業務方面,核心業務維持穩健,投資組合回暖,績效較去年同期好。
Finally, in the wealth management business, the good dynamic with clients continues as assets under management hit a record level, driving fee income upwards. Also, the investment portfolio had a better performance, in line with the market. As such, there is a significant improvement in the quarterly figures, rebounding 5.6 times, moving ROE closer to 14%.
最後,在財富管理業務方面,隨著管理資產創下歷史新高,客戶關係的良好動態持續,推動手續費收入上升。此外,投資組合的表現也較好,與市場一致。因此,季度數據出現顯著改善,反彈 5.6 倍,ROE 接近 14%。
On slide 9, we see a recovery in revenues in this quarter mainly due to an improvement in margins at Interbank driven by a reduction in the cost of funds and better yield in investments. On top of that, there is an important improvement in revenues from Inteligo as this continues to grow and the investment portfolio had a good quarter. Finally, we see good performance of core business at Interseguro with a better return over the investment portfolio in the quarter.
在投影片 9 中,我們看到本季營收復甦,主要是由於資金成本下降和投資收益率提高推動銀行間利潤率改善。最重要的是,隨著 Inteligo 的持續成長以及投資組合的季度表現良好,其收入也有了顯著改善。最後,我們看到 Interseguro 的核心業務表現良好,本季的投資組合報酬率更高。
On slide 10, we wanted to point out that the cost of risk and NPLs have nearly reached normalized levels at 3.1% and 2.9%, respectively. Both indicators have followed a downward trend, as anticipated, but at a faster rate than initially estimated as the liquidity events from the previous quarter accelerated the improvement in asset quality ratios.
在投影片 10 上,我們想指出,風險成本和不良貸款成本已接近分別達到 3.1% 和 2.9% 的標準化水準。如預期,這兩項指標均呈下降趨勢,但由於上季的流動性事件加速了資產品質比率的改善,下降速度比最初估計的要快。
Moreover, the improved macro environment is slowly starting to enhance people's purchasing power and increase their disposable income, leading to better payment behavior from customers. With that said, let's walk through some additional insights.
此外,宏觀環境的改善正在慢慢開始增強人們的購買力和可支配收入,導致客戶的支付行為改善。話雖如此,讓我們來看看一些額外的見解。
First, we have increased our exposure to commercial banking, moving from 44% in the third quarter '23 to 47% of Interbank's portfolio as of the third quarter '24. This segment continues to perform well as approximately 11% of the commercial portfolio is backed with guarantees from the [Impum Sumite] program, which generated growth at a lower cost of risk.
首先,我們增加了對商業銀行的投資,從 23 年第三季的 44% 上升到截至 24 年第三季的 47%。該細分市場繼續表現良好,約 11% 的商業投資組合得到了 [Impum Sumite] 計劃的擔保,該計劃以較低的風險成本實現了增長。
As we mentioned earlier, given the current situation, the focus of growth has been concentrated on lower-risk products, which shifts the mix of our consumer portfolio tactically. Credit cards and personal loans have decreased, now representing 18% of the total loan book, down from 23% a year ago.
正如我們之前提到的,鑑於目前的情況,成長的重點集中在低風險產品上,這從戰術上改變了我們的消費組合結構。信用卡和個人貸款減少,目前佔貸款總額的 18%,低於一年前的 23%。
Meanwhile, low-risk products such as payroll deductible loans to the public sector employees and mortgages have increased to 13% and 22%, respectively. This shift has allowed the cost of risk from retail to reduce around 200 basis points in the quarter and almost 300 basis points from a year ago.
同時,向公共部門僱員提供的工資可扣除貸款和抵押貸款等低風險產品已分別增加至13%和22%。這一轉變使得本季零售風險成本降低了約 200 個基點,較去年同期降低了近 300 個基點。
It has also impacted on the NPL coverage ratio for retail, having a lower coverage ratio when compared with a year ago, an effect which is purely due to the mix of the portfolio and not to lower coverage ratios in each specific Retail product.
它也影響了零售業的不良貸款覆蓋率,與一年前相比,其覆蓋率較低,這種影響純粹是由於投資組合的組合,而不是由於每種特定零售產品的覆蓋率較低。
Finally, we are taking advantage of our analytics capabilities. Over the past year, we have focused on enhancing our internal models by analyzing several variables and incorporating more transactional data. This approach aims to promote growth in a healthy manner. Consequently, the right allocation of loans will result in a more stable cost of risk for the future. However, we remain cautious, given that the economic activity has not yet fully recovered.
最後,我們正在利用我們的分析能力。在過去的一年裡,我們致力於透過分析多個變數並納入更多交易資料來增強我們的內部模型。這種方法旨在促進健康的成長。因此,正確的貸款分配將使未來的風險成本更加穩定。不過,鑑於經濟活動尚未完全恢復,我們仍保持謹慎態度。
On slide 11, complementing the previous slide, the rescheduling of outstanding loans have continued to decrease, 15% from the previous quarter and 22% versus a year ago, now representing around 17% of the consumer loans portfolio. In previous calls, we mentioned how the payment behavior for performing loans was quite different from customers with reschedules.
在投影片11 上,與上一張投影片補充的是,未償還貸款的重新安排持續減少,比上一季減少15%,比去年同期減少22%,目前約佔消費貸款組合的17% 。在先前的電話中,我們提到了執行貸款的付款行為與重新安排的客戶有很大不同。
But given the improvement in the payment behavior of clients, the difference has become smaller, and rescheduled loans are now collecting almost 92%. Now this improvement is in part on the back of the liquidity events of the second quarter, such as the availability of severance indemnity deposits and pension funds withdrawals.
但隨著客戶支付行為的改善,差異已經縮小,重新安排的貸款現在收取了近 92%。現在,這種改善在一定程度上得益於第二季度的流動性事件,例如遣散費存款和退休基金提取的可用性。
However, it is also the result of our proactive strategy in origination, risk management and collections. We are constantly improving our collections capabilities and communications through digital channels, making our payment solutions more available to clients.
然而,這也是我們在發起、風險管理和收款方面採取積極主動策略的結果。我們不斷提高我們的收款能力和透過數位管道的溝通,使我們的支付解決方案更容易為客戶所用。
On slide 12, we wanted to show the evolution of fee income, which has increased at IFS level by 5% from the last quarter, driven by an 8% increase in banking fee income and a 2% increase at Inteligo, in line with higher assets under management. At the banking level, the increase in credit card fees is the main driver thanks to the gradual recovery in turnovers.
在幻燈片12 上,我們希望展示費用收入的演變,在IFS 層面,費用收入比上季度增加了5%,這是由銀行費用收入增長8% 和Inteligo 增長2% 推動的,這與較高的收入成長保持一致。在銀行層面,由於營業額逐漸恢復,信用卡手續費上漲是主要推動力。
Finally, on this section, on slide 13, as always, we wanted to highlight that the efficiency -- that efficiency remains a top priority. There is a 3% increase in total expenses at IFS level versus the previous quarter and 2% from the Banking segment, mainly due to variable costs. The cost-to-income ratios are still within the expected levels at 38% for IFS and 39% for Interbank.
最後,在本節投影片 13 上,一如既往,我們想強調效率——效率仍然是重中之重。與上一季相比,IFS 層級的總費用增加了 3%,銀行部門的總費用增加了 2%,這主要是由於變動成本。IFS 的成本收入比為 38%,Interbank 的成本收入比為 39%,仍處於預期水準內。
Now let's move to the digital update. On slide 16, we continue the positive trends in our digital indicators, which continue to show a nice evolution when compared to the previous year. Interbank's digital experience is defined as everything you need in a single app.
現在讓我們轉向數位更新。在投影片 16 中,我們延續了數位指標的正面趨勢,與前一年相比,這些指標繼續呈現出良好的演變。Interbank 的數位體驗被定義為在一個應用程式中提供您所需的一切。
We have made relevant progress in our journey towards becoming more digital, developing the necessary capabilities to meet our customers' needs and providing them with the best experience. As a result, we have seen substantial growth in both digital customers and digital sales, increasing to 81% and 67%, respectively.
我們在邁向數位化、開發必要的能力來滿足客戶需求並為他們提供最佳體驗的過程中取得了相關進展。因此,我們看到數位客戶和數位銷售額均大幅成長,分別增至 81% 和 67%。
We are working on new developments in the app, including new features, look and feel enhancement, the use of Gen AI for claims resolution, among others. We also have app adoption campaigns driving both app downloads and active user engagement. All these efforts had a positive impact on our customer experience, reflected in NPS.
我們正在致力於該應用程式的新開發,包括新功能、外觀和感覺增強、使用 Gen AI 進行索賠解決等。我們也進行應用程式採用活動,推動應用程式下載和活躍用戶參與。所有這些努力都對我們的客戶體驗產生了積極影響,這反映在 NPS 中。
Finally, we are stable at around 76% in digital self-service as we have maintained always-on communication actions which are focused on educating customers about new self-service functionalities through the app and on our virtual system. As part of our digital value-added proposition, we believe we are creating value in primary banking relationships with PLIN.
最後,我們的數位自助服務穩定在 76% 左右,因為我們始終保持溝通行動,重點是透過應用程式和虛擬系統向客戶介紹新的自助服務功能。作為我們數位增值主張的一部分,我們相信我們正在與 PLIN 的主要銀行關係中創造價值。
PLIN is an accelerator, as 60% of the average monthly transactions of customers that use Interbank as their primary bank are explained by transactions sent and received with PLIN. We have been implementing commercial actions focused on usage and increased transactions through various campaigns, which have resulted in an accelerating growth of PLIN. The number of transactions expanded by twofold in the last year as active users increased by 31% and the average number of transactions by user increased by 57%.
PLIN 是一個加速器,因為使用 Interbank 作為主要銀行的客戶的平均每月交易中有 60% 是透過 PLIN 發送和接收的交易來解釋的。我們一直在實施以使用量為重點的商業行動,並透過各種活動增加交易,這導致了 PLIN 的加速成長。去年,交易數量增加了一倍,活躍用戶增加了 31%,用戶平均交易數量增加了 57%。
Moreover, there have been developments in the app, such as the PLIN son and PLIN promos. As a result, we generate more engagement by enhancing our customer experience. A customer that uses Interbank as their primary bank has 1.6 times more products, 1.4 times more deposits, 98% less churn and, finally, more client satisfaction, or NPS.
此外,該應用程式也有了一些發展,例如 PLIN son 和 PLIN promos。因此,我們透過增強客戶體驗來提高參與度。使用 Interbank 作為主要銀行的客戶的產品數量增加了 1.6 倍,存款增加了 1.4 倍,客戶流失率降低了 98%,最終客戶滿意度 (NPS) 更高。
On slide 18, we have continued working to generate further synergies as we encourage the growth of our payment ecosystem, focusing on increasing transactional volumes, offering merchants value-added services and using Izipay as a distribution network for Interbank products as well as a source to increase flow. The results are evident, as we follow four key figures: 31% yearly increase in Izipay cash flow coming to Interbank accounts and 43% increase in flow from merchants; 2.8 times yearly increase in transactional volumes and 57% growth inflow from micro merchants thanks to Izipay Ya.
在投影片 18 中,我們繼續努力產生進一步的協同效應,鼓勵支付生態系統的發展,重點關注增加交易量、為商家提供增值服務並使用 Izipay 作為銀行間產品的分銷網絡以及增加流量。結果顯而易見,因為我們遵循四個關鍵數據:銀行間帳戶的 Izipay 現金流量每年增長 31%,來自商家的現金流量增加 43%;得益於 Izipay Ya,交易量每年增長 2.8 倍,微商家流入量增加 57%。
Finally, on this section on slide 19, insurance and wealth management digital indicators show positive developments as well as digital adoption is increasing. In insurance, we continue to focus on enhancing the digital experience for our clients and expanding our distribution to new digital channels like WhatsApp driving digital adoption.
最後,在投影片 19 的這一部分中,保險和財富管理數位指標顯示出積極的發展,並且數位化採用正在增加。在保險領域,我們繼續專注於增強客戶的數位體驗,並將我們的分銷範圍擴大到 WhatsApp 等新的數位管道,以推動數位化採用。
The development of internal capabilities has allowed us to increase digital self-service to 65%. Similarly, sol digital sales have reached 82% and digital premiums for Vida, slowly gaining relevance, have reached 14%.
內部能力的發展使我們將數位化自助服務提高到了65%。同樣,sol 數位銷售額已達 82%,而慢慢獲得相關性的 Vida 數位溢價已達 14%。
In wealth management, Interfondos digital transactions reached 53%, and ERNI users now account for 25% of total Interfondos customers. To achieve these results, we have focused and will continue to work on enhancing communication and sales through digital channels and on the development of products with special characteristics tailored for digital clients.
在財富管理方面,Interfondos數位交易達到53%,ERNI用戶目前佔Interfondos客戶總數的25%。為了實現這些成果,我們一直並將繼續致力於透過數位管道加強溝通和銷售,以及開發為數位客戶量身定制的特色產品。
Now let's move on to show you some more details on the performance of our three key businesses. On slide 21, we are gaining market relevance in our key businesses. The reactivation in consumption and increasing cash loan disbursements have driven our recovery in the retail segment. Our market share in consumer and retail loans is at an inflection point, having increased by 10 basis points each on a quarterly basis.
現在,讓我們繼續向您展示有關我們三項關鍵業務業績的更多詳細資訊。在投影片 21 中,我們正在關鍵業務中獲得市場相關性。消費的復甦和現金貸款支出的增加推動了零售業務的復甦。我們在消費和零售貸款方面的市佔率正處於拐點,每季成長 10 個基點。
Furthermore, throughout the year, we have focused on growing our commercial loan book. We have leveraged Impulso MyPeru to increase market share of commercial loans with government guarantees. Moreover, sales finance remains one of our key products with market share growing from 14.6% just 12 months ago to more than 17%, ranking second in the market. Overall, commercial loans market share has increased nicely to 10.6%, an all-time high, which is 100 basis points above last year.
此外,我們全年都致力於擴大商業貸款規模。我們利用 Impulso MyPeru 來增加政府擔保的商業貸款的市場份額。此外,銷售金融仍是我們的重點產品之一,市佔率從12個月前的14.6%成長到17%以上,位居市場第二。整體而言,商業貸款市佔率已大幅成長至10.6%,創歷史新高,比去年高出100個基點。
Finally, we have been working to enhance our value proposition to clients, aiming to increase our primary banking relationships, which is positively impacting our deposits. As a result, our market share of payroll inflows continues to grow, and Retail deposit market shares has risen above 15%.
最後,我們一直致力於增強對客戶的價值主張,旨在增加我們的主要銀行關係,這對我們的存款產生了積極影響。因此,我們的薪資流入市場份額持續成長,零售存款市佔率已升至 15% 以上。
On slide 22, we observed a moderation in loan growth this quarter. However, there was positive news in the cash loan market as we experienced a slight recovery in disbursement. Overall, the loan book grew by approximately 1% in the quarter and 3.3% compared to a year ago in a market which is not growing.
在幻燈片 22 中,我們觀察到本季貸款成長放緩。然而,現金貸款市場出現了正面消息,我們的支出略有回升。總體而言,在一個沒有成長的市場中,本季貸款帳簿成長了約 1%,與去年同期相比成長了 3.3%。
On the commercial side, the book continues to grow, gaining relevance in the mix, though at a slower pace this quarter. We continue to leverage the Impulso MyPeru program, which allowed us to grow in the SME and midsized companies with government guarantees. This program peaked in the second quarter, and we expect it to gradually decrease over time.
在商業方面,這本書繼續成長,在組合中獲得了相關性,儘管本季成長放緩。我們繼續利用 Impulso MyPeru 計劃,該計劃使我們能夠在政府擔保的中小企業和中型企業中發展。該計劃在第二季度達到頂峰,我們預計它會隨著時間的推移而逐漸減少。
Consequently, this quarter, we have only disbursed PEN500 million compared to average disbursed in the previous quarters. Additionally, we continue to focus on growing in supply chain finance, as mentioned in the previous slide.
因此,與前幾季的平均支付額相比,本季我們只支付了 5 億先令。此外,正如上一張投影片中所提到的,我們繼續關注供應鏈金融的成長。
Overall, the commercial banking portfolio grew 12% year-over-year and 2.2% from the previous quarter, outperforming the system and gaining market share.
整體而言,商業銀行投資組合年增12%,季增2.2%,表現優於系統並贏得市場份額。
On the retail side, we see two important trends. First, we are experiencing growth in mortgages. Since July, we have seen a boost in our loans, gaining 27 basis points in market share over the past year. Second, we are at an inflection point in cash loans with an 8% improvement in disbursements from the previous quarter, still with a conservative approach to grow.
在零售方面,我們看到兩個重要趨勢。首先,我們正在經歷抵押貸款的成長。自 7 月以來,我們的貸款增加,市佔率比去年增加了 27 個基點。其次,我們正處於現金貸款的轉折點,支出較上一季提高了 8%,但仍採取保守的成長方式。
The enhancement of our internal models, including customer centricity vision, help us generate a more comprehensive value proposition for our clients, allowing us to grow in a healthy manner.
我們內部模型的增強,包括以客戶為中心的願景,幫助我們為客戶提供更全面的價值主張,使我們能夠健康成長。
On slide 21, risk-adjusted NIM continues to increase, 60 basis points in the last quarter and 130 basis points from the bottom by the end of last year, in line with the reduction of cost of risk mentioned before. Moreover, we also see an improvement in total NIM of 10 basis points in the quarter, changing the trend of the previous quarters.
在投影片 21 中,風險調整後的淨利差持續增加,上季增加了 60 個基點,到去年底較底部增加了 130 個基點,與前面提到的風險成本的降低一致。此外,我們也看到本季總淨利差改善了 10 個基點,改變了前幾季的趨勢。
Meanwhile, there is still impact on yields due to the shift of the loan book mix. Consumer loans, which include credit cards and personal loans, decreased from 23% to 18% year over year. Consequently, we see lower yield on loans of 10 basis points, reaching 10.5%. However, we have been proactive in managing our investment portfolio to mitigate this effect, taking advantage of market opportunities to generate additional margin.
同時,由於貸款帳簿結構的變化,仍對收益率產生影響。消費貸款(包括信用卡和個人貸款)較去年同期從 23% 下降至 18%。因此,我們預期貸款收益率將下降 10 個基點,達到 10.5%。然而,我們一直積極主動地管理我們的投資組合,以減輕這種影響,並利用市場機會產生額外的利潤。
Furthermore, this quarter brings positive news as the cost of funds continues a downward trend, decreasing 10 basis points to 3.5% with an accumulated reduction of 70 basis points from the peak of the fourth quarter '23. As you know, our sensitivity to changes in rates is higher on the funding side as we have more short-term deposits, both institutional and retail.
此外,本季也帶來了正面的消息,資金成本持續下降,下降了10個基點至3.5%,較23年第四季的高峰累積下降了70個基點。如您所知,我們在融資方面對利率變化的敏感度較高,因為我們擁有更多的短期存款(包括機構存款和零售存款)。
This is why, when rates increase, our cost of funds was hit. But now that we see lower market rates, we benefit (technical difficulty)
這就是為什麼當利率上升時,我們的資金成本會受到打擊。但現在我們看到市場利率下降,我們受益(技術難度)
This improvement is attributable not only to lower market rates, as the short duration of interest-bearing deposits allows for faster repricing, especially in local currency deposits, but also to a better funding mix.
這種改善不僅歸因於較低的市場利率(因為生息存款期限較短,可以更快地重新定價,尤其是本幣存款),還歸因於更好的融資組合。
Deposits grew by around 13% in the last year and 6% in the last quarter with saving deposits showing growth of 18% and 6% in the same period. As a result, deposits have become more relevant for funding, increasing from 76% to 81% in the last 12 months.
去年存款成長約13%,上季成長6%,同期儲蓄存款成長18%和6%。因此,存款與融資的相關性變得更強,在過去 12 個月中從 76% 增加到 81%。
Hence, the cost of deposits decreased by 20 basis points in the quarter and 80 basis points from last year. This is a result of our focus on the proactive management of efficient funding KPI that increased by 300 basis points in the last quarter. Finally, our solid loan-to-deposit ratio of 94% is in line with the industry's average.
因此,本季存款成本下降了 20 個基點,較去年下降了 80 個基點。這是我們專注於主動管理高效融資 KPI 的結果,該 KPI 在上個季度提高了 300 個基點。最後,我們 94% 的穩健貸存比率符合產業平均。
Now moving to insurance on slide 25, given the low penetration of insurance in Peru, the potential for growth of this market is important. This quarter, premiums were up 7% and around 13% year-over-year as market share of annuity climbs above 31%. Individual life and private annuities continued to grow nicely with year-over-year increases of 23% and more than 100%, respectively.
現在轉向幻燈片 25 上的保險,鑑於秘魯的保險滲透率較低,該市場的成長潛力非常重要。本季度,隨著年金市佔率攀升至 31% 以上,保費年增 7%,年增 13% 左右。個人壽險和私人年金持續保持良好成長,年比分別增加23%和100%以上。
Private annuities have positioned themselves as an attractive investment product. We are also observing growth in Retail digital products despite a cleanup within the SOAT and vehicle segments due to high claims rates.
私人年金已將自己定位為一種有吸引力的投資產品。儘管由於高索賠率而對 SOAT 和車輛領域進行了清理,但我們也觀察到零售數位產品的成長。
Also, we wanted to share some good news. In October, Interseguro secured a share of the disability and survivorship insurance business through a public tender effective from January 2025 until December 2026. This should add to earnings in the next couple of years.
另外,我們想分享一些好消息。10 月,Interseguro 透過公開招標獲得了傷殘和倖存者保險業務的份額,該招標有效期為 2025 年 1 月至 2026 年 12 月。這應該會增加未來幾年的收入。
Finally, on wealth management, we continue to see growth in assets under management with a yearly growth of 19% and 5% on a quarterly basis, reaching, again, a historical maximum of $7.1 billion.
最後,在財富管理方面,我們繼續看到管理資產的成長,年增率為 19%,季度成長率為 5%,再次達到 71 億美元的歷史最高水準。
Interfondos has had an important year so far. The digital developments with ERNI have allowed us to grow more than 50% in the year, outperforming its peers in gaining market share, now at an all-time high at 17%. On the back of that, there is an important recovery of fee income on an annual basis representing a 22% growth year over year.
到目前為止,Interfondos 度過了重要的一年。ERNI 的數位化發展使我們在這一年中成長了 50% 以上,在市佔率方面優於同行,目前市佔率達到 17% 的歷史最高水準。在此背景下,費用收入逐年顯著復甦,較去年同期成長 22%。
Now let me move to the final part of the presentation, where we provide an update on ESG operating trends for 2024 and some takeaways. On Slide 28, we want to share our sustainability update.
現在讓我進入演示的最後部分,我們將提供 2024 年 ESG 營運趨勢的最新資訊和一些要點。在投影片 28 上,我們想分享我們的永續發展最新動態。
Our commitment to sustainability has led to a significant improvement in our CSA score, as Luis Felipe previously mentioned. We've improved by 8 points and reached a percentile of 93%, being the highest grade in the country.
正如 Luis Felipe 之前提到的,我們對永續發展的承諾使我們的 CSA 分數顯著提高。我們進步了 8 個百分點,達到了 93%,是全國最高等級。
On the environmental front, we've taken a significant step forward by publishing our first climate report. This report includes our first qualitative assessment of climate-related risks to our banking business. We've also expanded our green loan portfolio to $330 million, demonstrating our commitment to sustainable finance.
在環境方面,我們發布了第一份氣候報告,向前邁出了重要一步。該報告包括我們對銀行業務氣候相關風險的首次定性評估。我們還將綠色貸款組合擴大到 3.3 億美元,體現了我們對永續金融的承諾。
On the social front, we've continued to prioritize diversity, equity and inclusion. Programs like GoWomen, Inspira and Sin Fronteras have empowered employees and clients from diverse backgrounds.
在社會方面,我們繼續優先考慮多元化、公平和包容性。GoWomen、Inspira 和 Sin Fronteras 等計畫為來自不同背景的員工和客戶提供了幫助。
Finally, on the government front, we've updated our policies to align with best practices and international standards. This commitment to transparency and accountability is a cornerstone to our sustainability strategy.
最後,在政府方面,我們更新了政策,以符合最佳實踐和國際標準。這種對透明度和問責制的承諾是我們永續發展策略的基石。
On Slide 29, let me give you an update on our operating results for the third quarter 2024. We continue to present sound capital levels with total capital ratio almost at 16% and core equity Tier 1 ratio higher than 12%, both well above our guidance and our capital requirements. ROE is gradually improving, reaching more than 15% in the third quarter and 10.6% for the first nine months of the year, still below midterm range but closer to our guidance.
在投影片 29 上,我將向您介紹 2024 年第三季營運表現的最新情況。我們繼續保持良好的資本水平,總資本比率接近 16%,核心一級資本比率高於 12%,均遠高於我們的指導和資本要求。ROE 正在逐步改善,第三季達到 15% 以上,今年前 9 個月達到 10.6%,仍低於中期範圍,但更接近我們的指引。
We expect that, with the improvement of the cost of risk, the recovery in the investment portfolio and the reactivation of consumer loan, we should be in line with guidance.
我們預計,隨著風險成本的改善、投資組合的復甦以及消費貸款的重新啟動,我們應該會與指引保持一致。
Loan growth of 3.3% is below guidance, but we expect a rebound in the last quarter of the year supported by strong growth from commercial banking, mortgages and the recovery of the consumer portfolio.
3.3% 的貸款成長低於預期,但我們預計今年最後一個季度將反彈,這將受到商業銀行、抵押貸款和消費者投資組合復甦強勁成長的支持。
NIM for the quarter was 5.3% during the first nine months of the year. Cost of risk for banking is already at 4.0% for the nine months of 2024, better than our expectations and below our guidance. The 3.1% of the third quarter is also closer to our normalized cost of risk. We continue to see good efficiency levels at IFS, in line with guidance.
今年前 9 個月,該季度的淨利差為 5.3%。2024 年 9 個月,銀行業的風險成本已達到 4.0%,優於我們的預期,但低於我們的指導。第三季的 3.1% 也更接近我們的標準化風險成本。我們繼續看到 IFS 的效率水準與指導一致。
Let me finalize the presentation with some key takeaways. First, improving banking and investment results drive earnings recovery at IFS. Second, lower cost of risk translates into better results for Interbank. Third, better funding mix impacts positively cost of funds and NIM. Fourth, moderation in loan growth with improvement of cash loans disbursements. Fifth, sustained growth in insurance premiums. And finally, strong increase in assets under management, in Wealth Management, gaining market share in Interfondos.
讓我用一些關鍵要點來結束這場演講。首先,銀行和投資績效的改善推動了 IFS 的獲利復甦。其次,較低的風險成本可以為銀行間帶來更好的績效。第三,更好的資金組合對資金成本和淨利差有正面影響。四是貸款成長放緩,現金貸款支出有所改善。五是保險保費持續成長。最後,財富管理領域管理資產的強勁成長,增加了 Interfondos 的市佔率。
Thank you very much. Now we welcome any questions you might have.
非常感謝。現在我們歡迎您提出任何問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Ernesto Gabilondo, Bank of America.
(操作員指示)Ernesto Gabilondo,美國銀行。
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Thank you. Hi, good morning, Luis Felipe, Michela, Carlos, and good morning to all your team. Congrats on your results and the recovery on the Wealth Management business, and thanks for the opportunity to ask questions.
謝謝。嗨,早安,路易斯費利佩、米凱拉、卡洛斯,還有你們所有的團隊早安。恭喜您所取得的成果以及財富管理業務的復甦,並感謝您有機會提問。
My first question will be on your NIM expectations. As you mentioned, you're expecting that to be relatively flat this year. However, starting to think about next year, if we see that the economy is bouncing back, how should we think about the NIM trend, especially if, at some point, we have a more credit card appetite?
我的第一個問題是關於您對 NIM 的期望。正如您所提到的,您預計今年的情況將相對穩定。然而,開始思考明年,如果我們看到經濟正在反彈,我們應該如何看待淨利差趨勢,特別是如果在某個時候我們對信用卡的胃口更大的話?
And my second question will be on asset quality. Also wondering how you see cost of risk evolving over the next years. As you have mentioned, cost of risk was at 4% in the first nine months of this year, but at 3% this third quarter. And you have mentioned in previous calls that IFS cost of risk should be normalizing, 3%, 3.5% levels. So I just wanted to hear -- double-check how you're seeing this trend going forward.
我的第二個問題是關於資產品質。也想知道您如何看待未來幾年風險成本的變化。正如您所提到的,今年前 9 個月的風險成本為 4%,但今年第三季為 3%。您在先前的電話會議中提到,IFS 風險成本應該正常化,即 3%、3.5% 的水平。所以我只是想聽聽看——仔細檢查一下您如何看待這一趨勢的未來。
And my last question will be on the fee income side. How do you see growth for this line, especially considering that you will have Izipay revenues, higher assets under management and then we started to see a better performance in the Wealth Management business?
我的最後一個問題是關於費用收入方面的。您如何看待這條線的成長,特別是考慮到您將擁有 Izipay 收入、管理的資產更高,然後我們開始看到財富管理業務的更好表現?
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
Okay. Thank you, Ernesto, for your very detailed questions. I think there are some details that I'm going to go straight to Michela so she can build upon those specific numbers. But thanks very much. Michela, please.
好的。埃內斯托,謝謝您提出非常詳細的問題。我認為有些細節我將直接告訴米歇拉,以便她可以根據這些具體數字進行建造。但非常感謝。米凱拉,請。
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
Let's start with NIM. As you have seen in the current numbers, NIM has improved 10 basis points. What we are expecting for 2025 is a recovery of NIM mainly due to a couple of trends. First, cost of funds, which has already decreased substantially, will have a full year effect during 2025, which is very positive.
讓我們從 NIM 開始。正如您在當前數據中看到的那樣,NIM 提高了 10 個基點。我們預計 2025 年淨利差將出現復甦,這主要是由於幾個趨勢。首先,已經大幅下降的資金成本將在2025年產生全年影響,這是非常正面的。
And the second part is the portfolio mix. As you mentioned, in the high-yield portion of the portfolio, which is not consumer loans, credit cards and personal loans has decreased this year substantially. But we are starting to see a slight growth. So we are expecting growth for 2025, and that should help yield on loans, thus, together with cost of funds, impacting positively NIM for 2025.
第二部分是投資組合。正如您所提到的,在投資組合的高收益部分(非消費貸款)中,信用卡和個人貸款今年大幅減少。但我們開始看到略有增長。因此,我們預計 2025 年將出現成長,這將有助於貸款收益率,從而與資金成本一起對 2025 年的淨利差產生積極影響。
On asset quality, I guess, this quarter, it is already a normalized level, normally 3%. Now have in mind that this 3% comes with a couple of things that are still not within our, let's say, risk profile target. Now, first, again, the consumer loan book is smaller than we would like it to be.
就資產品質而言,我估計,這個季度已經是一個正常水準了,通常是3%。現在請記住,這 3% 帶來的一些因素仍然不在我們的風險狀況目標之內。現在,首先,消費者貸款規模比我們希望的要小。
And the second impact is that we have a portion of the commercial loan book which is guaranteed by the state. So I guess that, going forward, what we expect is that still there is room for improvement in the specific cost of risk of the consumer loan book, which will push cost of risk downwards, but the portfolio mix and the maturity of the guarantee from the state will push cost of risk upwards.
第二個影響是我們有一部分商業貸款是由國家擔保的。因此,我認為,展望未來,我們預計消費貸款帳簿的具體風險成本仍有改善的空間,這將推動風險成本下降,但投資組合結構和擔保期限將繼續下降。
So basically, we are not yet giving guidance for next year. But what we are expecting is cost of risk to be around what we have seen -- I mean between what we have seen this quarter and slightly above that.
所以基本上,我們還沒有給出明年的指導。但我們預計風險成本將在我們所看到的水平附近——我的意思是在我們本季所看到的水平和略高於該水平之間。
And the third part, fee income, I guess this quarter has been a good reflection of what we should expect for next year. And as you mentioned, the drivers of the recovery of fee income are the growth in the consumer loan book for sure, fees coming from Izipay and Inteligo.
第三部分是費用收入,我想這個季度很好地反映了我們對明年的預期。正如您所提到的,費用收入恢復的驅動力肯定是消費貸款帳簿的成長,費用來自 Izipay 和 Inteligo。
So we are expecting a much nicer growth year-over-year during 2025 versus what we saw this year because, this quarter, no fees are growing nicely, but still, when you look at the year-over-year accumulated numbers, there are still some negative impacts there. I'm not sure whether I fulfilled the three questions.
因此,我們預計 2025 年的同比增長將比今年好得多,因為本季度沒有任何費用增長良好,但當你查看同比累計數字時,仍然有仍然存在一些負面影響。我不確定我是否完成了這三個問題。
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Yes, super helpful, Michela. Just a last question on your ROE expectations. So you are reiterating that you can expect an ROE around 12% or above 12% this year. But when do you expect to reach your sustainable ROE? I think you were expecting something around 18% at some point. When do you think we can get to those levels, '26, '27?
是的,超級有幫助,米歇拉。最後一個問題是關於您的 ROE 預期。因此,您重申今年的淨資產收益率預計將達到 12% 左右或 12% 以上。但您預計什麼時候才能達到可持續的股本報酬率?我想你在某個時候的預期是 18% 左右。您認為我們什麼時候可以達到這些水平,'26,'27?
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
We are still closing numbers, Ernesto. But I guess that the question there is the bank and specifically the recovery of the consumer loan book. I guess we should be close to the 18% ROE levels maybe more like by year-end next year.
我們仍在統計數字,埃內斯托。但我認為問題在於銀行,特別是消費者貸款帳簿的回收。我想我們應該會在明年年底之前接近 18% 的 ROE 水平。
But it is difficult to see yet the full year 2025 already at the midterm range, so maybe the last quarter of 2025. We still need to check. But I guess, I mean, we are getting closer to that. And it's a matter of cost of risk continuing now in the trend that we have seen in this quarter and the recovery of the consumer loan book.
但目前還很難看到 2025 年全年已經達到中期範圍,所以可能是 2025 年最後一季。我們還需要檢查一下。但我想,我的意思是,我們正在接近這一目標。這是一個風險成本問題,我們在本季看到的趨勢和消費者貸款的復甦仍在繼續。
Operator
Operator
Yuri Fernandes, JPMorgan.
尤里‧費爾南德斯,摩根大通。
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
And also congrats on the ROE recovery here and the good set of results. I have a question regarding your credit card that, back in the day, was super important. And I think it remains super important, but has been losing share on your total loan book. What should we see? And what do you need to have more appetite op start growing the credit card book again?
也要祝賀 ROE 的恢復以及取得的良好成績。我有一個關於您信用卡的問題,這在當時是非常重要的。我認為它仍然非常重要,但在貸款總額中所佔的份額一直在下降。我們應該看到什麼?您需要什麼才能有更多的胃口並開始再次增加信用卡帳戶?
Because this was another quarter of quarter-over-quarter decrease. I guess it was down maybe 5%. So I'm just trying to understand where is the inflection point, what you need to see? What is the economic data? What has changed in the industry?
因為這又是一個季度季減的季度。我猜可能下降了 5%。所以我只是想了解拐點在哪裡,你需要看到什麼?經濟數據是什麼?產業發生了什麼變化?
Whatever you can talk about this product? And then I can ask a second question.
您能談談這個產品嗎?然後我可以問第二個問題。
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
Okay. Yuri, thank you very much. Let me pass it on to Carlos Tori, who can build upon your question.
好的。尤里,非常感謝你。讓我將其轉告卡洛斯·托里(Carlos Tori),他可以根據你的問題提出進一步的建議。
Carlos Tori Grande - Executive Vice President - Payments
Carlos Tori Grande - Executive Vice President - Payments
Thank you, Yuri, for your question. Yes, credit cards remain very important for us. We have seen, over the last couple of quarters, the whole market shrinking a little bit more due to the economic environment than anything else. So we follow that path. I believe we have reached or are very close to the inflection point, and we are looking to grow the -- our portfolio.
謝謝尤里的提問。是的,信用卡對我們來說仍然非常重要。我們看到,在過去的幾個季度中,由於經濟環境的原因,整個市場的萎縮幅度比其他任何因素都要大一些。所以我們就沿著這條路走。我相信我們已經達到或非常接近轉折點,我們正在尋求擴大我們的投資組合。
But we're going to be -- as I mentioned on the last call, we want to be very cautious on how we do it. We don't want to rush into growing that. We want to keep our cost of risk controlled. So we are seeing some growth on some segments. Our value proposition on our credit cards remains very strong, and we continue to look for that.
但正如我在上次電話會議中提到的,我們希望對我們的做法非常謹慎。我們不想急於發展它。我們希望控制風險成本。因此,我們看到某些細分市場出現了一些成長。我們對信用卡的價值主張仍然非常強大,我們將繼續尋求這一點。
So we expect probably -- you know, the last quarter of a year is always higher consumption because of [Christmas and] all the events related to that. So we'll probably see some increase over that, and we'll try to maintain consistent but cautious growth on that portfolio. But yes, it continues to be our purpose.
所以我們預計——你知道,由於[聖誕節和]所有與之相關的事件,一年的最後一個季度的消費總是更高。因此,我們可能會看到一些成長,並且我們將努力保持該投資組合的持續但謹慎的成長。但是,是的,這仍然是我們的目標。
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I guess we're all anxious about growth, obviously, but as Carlos mentioned, we are just emerging from a very hard part of the credit cycle for the country as a whole. So as he mentioned, the economy needs to continue its recovery path and the consumer purchasing power and ability to pay should show us more strength so we can become less conservative.
是的。我想顯然我們都對成長感到焦慮,但正如卡洛斯所提到的,我們剛剛擺脫整個國家信貸週期的非常困難的階段。因此,正如他所提到的,經濟需要繼續復甦,消費者的購買力和支付能力應該向我們展示更多的力量,這樣我們就可以變得不那麼保守。
And obviously, we've been working on our models. So that strategically will help, but we're going to be cautious because, again, the economy in Peru is in its recovery fast, but we need to remember that 2025 is a pre-electoral year (inaudible) activity there, and I think that we're constantly optimistic but cautious as well. No?
顯然,我們一直在研究我們的模型。因此,這在戰略上會有所幫助,但我們會保持謹慎,因為秘魯的經濟再次快速復甦,但我們需要記住,2025 年是那裡的選舉前年(聽不清楚)活動,我認為我們始終保持樂觀但也保持謹慎。不?
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
Super clear. If I may, just on the card product, how should we think about the margins and the risk-adjusted margin of the card products? Is this accretive for your total NIM and risk-adjusted NIM? Once we start to see you're feeling more comfortable with this product, should this be a tailwind for your margins?
超級清晰。如果可以的話,就卡片產品而言,我們應該如何考慮卡片產品的保證金和風險調整保證金?這會增加您的總淨利差和風險調整後淨利差嗎?一旦我們開始看到您對這款產品感覺更舒服,這是否會成為您利潤的利多因素?
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
If I can, Yuri, it is accretive, yes, for sure. No? Credit cards now -- I mean, the new level of rates in risk-adjusted yields is, for sure, one of the highest. And this is one of the reasons why NIM is a little bit impacted. So I guess, in line with what Carlos and Luis Felipe have just mentioned, the importance of the recovery of that portfolio is vital, let's say, for their recovery in the yield of loans of the bank and of [Vida].
如果我可以,尤里,它會增值,是的,當然。不?現在的信用卡——我的意思是,新的風險調整收益率水平肯定是最高的之一。這也是NIM受到一點影響的原因之一。因此,我想,正如卡洛斯和路易斯費利佩剛才提到的那樣,該投資組合的復甦至關重要,比如說,對於他們銀行和銀行貸款收益率的恢復至關重要。[維達]。
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
And for 2025, how should we think about margins for you? I remember in the past call, you were somewhat positive on funding cost being a tailwind for NIM. Is that the case? Could we see NIM keeping expanding from here as we are seeing this quarter?
到 2025 年,我們該如何考慮您的利潤?我記得在過去的電話會議中,您對融資成本對 NIM 的推動作用持積極態度。是這樣嗎?我們能否看到 NIM 繼續擴張,正如我們本季所看到的那樣?
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Yes, Yuri, for sure. Yes, as cost of funds is already not at a lower level and as long as the portfolio mix starts to shift, not towards (technical difficulty) higher NIM should recover during 2025. Maybe if I can add --
是的。是的,尤里,當然。是的,由於資金成本已經不處於較低水平,並且只要投資組合開始轉變,淨利差就不會在 2025 年恢復(技術難度)更高。也許我可以添加--
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
(inaudible)
(聽不清楚)
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
Sorry, if I can add, I was only going to say that we've seen a further improvement in October already.
抱歉,如果我可以補充的話,我只是想說我們在 10 月已經看到了進一步的改善。
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
Good news, Michela.
好消息,米凱拉。
Operator
Operator
Andres Soto, Santander.
安德烈斯·索托,桑坦德銀行。
Andres Soto - Analyst
Andres Soto - Analyst
I have two questions. The first one, also in terms of loan growth, you have been able to outpace -- gain market share. This year, basically, you're outpacing the system. Is this a trend that should continue next year, or next year, we should see IFS growing more in tandem with the rise of the Peruvian financial system, or even below, considering you have hard comps in your Commercial portfolio?
我有兩個問題。第一個,也是在貸款成長方面,你已經能夠超越——獲得市場份額。今年,基本上,你已經超越了系統。這種趨勢是否應該在明年繼續下去,或者明年,我們應該看到 IFS 隨著秘魯金融體系的崛起而增長,甚至低於,考慮到你的商業投資組合中有硬比較?
And the second question is related to the data breach that we saw at the end of last month. I would like to understand if there were -- there was any short-term impact with that in terms of deposit outflows or clients shutting down accounts or something like that. Anything of that that we could anticipate for the fourth quarter results?
第二個問題與我們上月底看到的資料外洩事件有關。我想了解這是否會在存款外流或客戶關閉帳戶或類似情況方面產生任何短期影響。我們可以對第四季的業績做出什麼預期嗎?
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
Just on the second one, that's been very recent. We have not seen any material change in our operations. Customers continue to operate normally. So we don't anticipate anything so far.
就第二個,那是最近的事。我們的營運沒有任何重大變化。客戶繼續正常營業。所以到目前為止我們還沒有預期任何事情。
And then your first question, as we've always mentioned, our aim is to outpace the market as -- in a sustainable way. We, year in, year out, like to scratch a little bit more market share, and that's our objective for 2025.
然後你的第一個問題,正如我們一直提到的,我們的目標是以可持續的方式超越市場。年復一年,我們希望獲得更多的市場份額,這就是我們 2025 年的目標。
Obviously, it will depend on many factors. I think we have ample room for growth in our commercial book, given our market shares are not that high in that segment. And (technical difficulty) it will depend on the recovery of the consumer portfolio.
顯然,這將取決於許多因素。我認為我們的商業書籍有足夠的成長空間,因為我們在該領域的市佔率並不高。並且(技術難度)將取決於消費者組合的恢復。
Obviously, we're very focused on that, but that should also happen in (inaudible)
顯然,我們非常關注這一點,但這也應該發生在(聽不清楚)
So if you ask me, like, big strategic view is to continue growing faster than the market, as we've been doing in the recent years, for 2025, and the years onwards, we'll continue to do the same.
因此,如果你問我,大的策略願景是繼續以快於市場的速度成長,就像我們近年來一直在做的那樣,在 2025 年以及以後的幾年裡,我們將繼續這樣做。
Andres Soto - Analyst
Andres Soto - Analyst
Yes, so based on your previous comments regarding loan growth in the fourth quarter, can we expect sort of this year end at mid-single digits? And for next year, it would make sense to -- for you to grow at high single digits? Or is it that too optimistic?
是的,根據您先前對第四季貸款成長的評論,我們是否可以預期今年年底貸款成長將達到中個位數?明年,您的高個位數成長是否有意義?還是太過樂觀了?
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
I think it's too early to tell right now, Andres. We are not providing guidance, obviously, this time of the year. We're all setting down in our budgeting process and working on that front. So as soon as we have more clarity on that, obviously we will communicate it to the market through the appropriate channels.
我認為現在下結論還為時過早,安德烈斯。顯然,每年的這個時候我們都不會提供指導。我們都在製定預算流程並致力於這方面的工作。因此,一旦我們對此有了更清晰的認識,顯然我們將透過適當的管道向市場傳達這一訊息。
But I wouldn't anticipate, hopefully -- like, overall, the trend for Peru's GDP should continue to be positive with the caveat of the pre-electoral year coming on. And that system should grow faster, obviously, than GDP, as has been the case. And if we scratch a little bit of market share, you can kind of infer what we will expect, but as soon as we complete our work, we will surely communicate it.
但我預計,總體而言,隨著選舉前年的警告即將到來,秘魯國內生產毛額的趨勢應該會繼續積極。顯然,該體系的成長速度應該快於國內生產毛額(GDP),就像現在的情況一樣。如果我們抓住一點市場份額,你可以推斷我們會期望什麼,但一旦我們完成工作,我們肯定會傳達它。
Operator
Operator
At this time, I will turn the call over to Mr. Ivan Peill from InspIR Group. Please go ahead, sir.
此時,我將把電話轉給 InspIR Group 的 Ivan Peill 先生。請繼續,先生。
Ivan Peill - IR
Ivan Peill - IR
Thank you, operator. The first question comes from one Nicolas Pardo Ayala. Any sanctions -- I'm sorry, from Credicorp Capital Asset Management. Any sanctions are expected from the regulator coming from the data breach event?
謝謝你,接線生。第一個問題來自尼古拉斯·帕爾多·阿亞拉。任何制裁——抱歉,來自 Credicorp Capital Asset Management。監管機構是否會因資料外洩事件而實施任何制裁?
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
Luis Felipe Castellanos Lopez Torres - Chief Executive Officer
We don't know yet. Obviously, this is -- we are collaborating with the authorities in all their requirements. We'll go through the process. We are not anticipating anything yet.
我們還不知道。顯然,我們正在與當局合作滿足他們的所有要求。我們將完成整個過程。我們還沒有期待任何事。
Ivan Peill - IR
Ivan Peill - IR
There appear to be no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back to Ms. Casassa for closing remarks.
目前似乎沒有其他問題了。我想請卡薩薩女士致閉幕詞。
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
Michela Casassa Ramat - Chief Financial Officer
Okay. Thank you very much, and thank you, everybody, for joining IFS third quarter conference call. We will see everybody back again next year. Thanks. Bye-bye.
好的。非常感謝大家參加 IFS 第三季電話會議。明年我們將再次見到大家。謝謝。再見。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。