Ichor Holdings Ltd (ICHR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Claire McAdams - Investor Relations and Strategic Initiatives

    Claire McAdams - Investor Relations and Strategic Initiatives

  • Good afternoon, and thank you for joining today's first quarter 2025 conference call. As you read our earnings press release and as you listen to this conference call, please recognize that both contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control and which could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements.

    下午好,感謝您參加今天的 2025 年第一季電話會議。當您閱讀我們的收益新聞稿並收聽本次電話會議時,請注意兩者都包含聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響,其中許多是我們無法控制的,並且可能導致實際結果與這些陳述有重大差異。

  • These risks and uncertainties include those spelled out in our earnings press release, those described in our annual report on Form 10-K for fiscal year 2024 and those described in subsequent filings with the SEC. You should consider all forward-looking statements in light of those and other risks and uncertainties.

    這些風險和不確定性包括我們的收益新聞稿中明確說明的風險和不確定性、我們 2024 財年 10-K 表年度報告中描述的風險和不確定性以及隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述的風險和不確定性。您應該根據這些以及其他風險和不確定性來考慮所有前瞻性陳述。

  • Additionally, we will be providing certain non-GAAP financial measures during this conference call. Our earnings press release and the financial supplement posted to our IR website each provide a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP financial measures.

    此外,我們將在本次電話會議中提供某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益新聞稿和發佈到我們的 IR 網站上的財務補充均提供了這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。

  • On the call with me today are Jeff Andreson, our CEO; and Greg Swyt, our CFO. Jeff will begin with an update on our business, and then Greg will provide additional details about our results and guidance. After the prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions.

    今天與我一起通話的有我們的執行長 Jeff Andreson 和我們的財務長 Greg Swyt。傑夫將首先介紹我們的業務進展,然後格雷格將提供有關我們的結果和指導的更多詳細資訊。準備好的發言結束後,我們將開放提問專線。

  • I'll now turn over the call to Jeff Andreson. Jeff?

    我現在將電話轉給傑夫安德森。傑夫?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Claire, and welcome, everyone, to our Q1 earnings call. Thanks for joining us today. First quarter revenues came in right around the midpoint of our expectations, reflecting that the overall customer demand environment has remained relatively consistent since our last earnings call.

    謝謝克萊爾,歡迎大家參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。感謝您今天加入我們。第一季的營收正好處於我們預期的中間點,反映出自上次財報電話會議以來,整體客戶需求環境保持相對穩定。

  • To date, there has been little change to the expectation that 2025 will be a modest growth year for wafer fab equipment, or WFE, and our Q1 revenues were up 5% sequentially from Q4 and grew 21% over the same period last year. Given our visibility today, we continue to expect our revenue growth this year will outperform overall WFE growth in 2025.

    到目前為止,對於 2025 年將是晶圓廠設備(WFE)溫和增長的一年的預期幾乎沒有變化,我們的第一季度收入環比第四季度增長 5%,比去年同期增長 21%。鑑於我們今天的知名度,我們仍然預計今年的收入成長將超過 2025 年 WFE 的整體成長。

  • On the gross margin side, first of all, let me say that we fully acknowledge that our track record guiding expected improvements in gross margin has been impacted by excursions one too many times at this point. In evaluating our results for the first quarter, we, too, found it challenging to fully understand why our increasing momentum in integrating internally sourced component has not resulted in more meaningful improvement to our gross margin profile. The best way to capture the lower-than-expected flow-through in our Q1 gross margin performance is best summed up as growing pain.

    在毛利率方面,首先,我要說的是,我們完全承認,我們預期的毛利率改善的記錄目前已經受到了太多次偏差的影響。在評估第一季的業績時,我們也發現很難完全理解為什麼我們在整合內部採購組件方面的成長勢頭並沒有為我們的毛利率狀況帶來更有意義的改善。捕捉第一季毛利率表現低於預期的流通的最佳方法可以概括為成長的痛苦。

  • Once our internal supply is fully up to speed, we will see the benefits of the new product wins through the P&L. Our strategy is working. The qualifications are continuing, and the impact will materialize as we progress forward. In Q1, our strategy did not materialize into the margin flow-through we anticipated, essentially because we ended up purchasing far more external supply than we had forecasted.

    一旦我們的內部供應完全達到速度,我們將透過損益表看到新產品獲勝帶來的好處。我們的策略正在發揮作用。資格認證仍在繼續,其影響將隨著我們不斷前進而顯現。在第一季度,我們的策略並沒有實現預期的利潤流轉,主要是因為我們最終購買的外部供應遠遠超出了我們的預期。

  • So why did that happen? As internally sourced products become a more significant portion of our bill of materials, we must improve our processes for the management of the inventory levels needed prior to inserting these components into our manufacturing pipeline. In the first quarter, the impact of the slower inventory build in the fourth quarter combined with other machine components ramping at the same time resulted in the need to buy more external supply in order to fulfill our gas panel deliveries in the early part of the quarter.

    那為什麼會發生這種情況呢?隨著內部採購的產品在我們的物料清單中所佔比例越來越大,我們必須改進流程,以便在將這些組件納入我們的製造流程之前管理所需的庫存水準。在第一季度,由於第四季度庫存增加放緩,加上其他機器零件同時增加,導致我們需要購買更多的外部供應,才能在本季度初完成燃氣面板的交付。

  • Why this resulted in low 20s gross margin flow-through, well below expectations, is because our strategy is to share a portion of the component cost savings with our customers. And therefore, when we purchase more external supply instead of using our own components, the expected flow-through didn't materialize. This impact accounts for about two-thirds of our gross margin miss in Q1.

    之所以導致毛利率流出低於 20%(遠低於預期),是因為我們的策略是與客戶分享部分組件成本節省。因此,當我們購買更多外部供應而不是使用我們自己的組件時,預期的流通並沒有實現。這一影響約占我們第一季毛利率損失的三分之二。

  • Most of the remainder of the gross margin impacts came in our non-semi business, where we were awarded a new contract in the commercial space market that began shipments in the quarter. As we moved from pilot to production, it was determined that a redesign of some aspects of the part was required, and this resulted in a pushout of revenue as well as incurring higher costs than expected with these initial delivery.

    其餘大部分毛利率影響來自於我們的非半導體業務,我們在商業航太市場獲得了一份新合同,該合約於本季度開始發貨。當我們從試點轉向生產時,我們確定需要重新設計零件的某些方面,這導致收入減少,並且產生了比初始交付預期更高的成本。

  • And lastly, during the quarter, we made the decision to exit our refurbishment business in Scotland as the demand for product we were licensed to refurbish declined to a level too low to sustain the operation and exiting this business had a slight impact on both revenue and gross margin in Q1.

    最後,在本季度,我們決定退出蘇格蘭的翻新業務,因為我們獲得翻新許可的產品需求下降到無法維持營運的水平,退出該業務對第一季的收入和毛利率都產生了輕微影響。

  • As we look ahead, we have identified what has made an accurate prediction of our gross margin such a challenge over the last several quarters. And as we build in the processes that better gauge both the pricing and the cost sides of the equation, we are confident you will see a longer-term trend developing and how we demonstrate progress towards our gross margin targets, which brings me to an update on our progress in qualifying our proprietary products, which are chiefly comprised of certain components used in our existing gas panel business as well as our next-generation gas panel.

    展望未來,我們已經確定了過去幾季中準確預測毛利率所面臨的挑戰。隨著我們建立能夠更好地衡量定價和成本兩方面的流程,我們相信您將看到一個長期趨勢的發展,以及我們如何展示我們在實現毛利率目標方面的進展,這使我了解到我們在認證專有產品方面取得的進展,這些產品主要由我們現有的燃氣面板業務以及下一代燃氣面板中使用的某些組件組成。

  • We achieved a significant number of new component qualifications in 2024, and we expect these qualifications to convert into more meaningful internal supply within our gas panel business as we progress through 2025. As stated previously, the increased use of our proprietary internally sourced components is a key driver to our strategies for gross margin expansion. While 2024 marked a successful year for qualification, our work continues.

    我們在 2024 年獲得了大量新組件認證,我們預計到 2025 年,這些認證將轉化為我們燃氣面板業務中更有意義的內部供應。如前所述,增加使用我們的專有內部採購組件是我們擴大毛利率策略的關鍵驅動力。雖然 2024 年是資格認證成功的一年,但我們的工作仍在繼續。

  • As stated before, three of our major process tool customers have already qualified our substrate, which are incorporated into our gas panel. Today, we are pleased to announce a fourth customer will incorporate our substrates into their next-generation products as they transition to service mount technology. This same customer will also be incorporating our valve products upon successful qualification later this year.

    如前所述,我們的三個主要製程工具客戶已經認可了我們的基板,這些基板被納入我們的氣體面板。今天,我們很高興地宣布,第四位客戶將在向服務安裝技術過渡的過程中將我們的基板納入他們的下一代產品中。今年晚些時候,該客戶在成功認證後也將採用我們的閥門產品。

  • Last quarter, we announced the second customer qualification for our valve product line. We expect to complete valve qualifications for a third customer this summer as well as the fourth substrate customer just mentioned anticipated by year-end.

    上個季度,我們宣布了閥門產品線的第二個客戶認證。我們預計今年夏天將為第三個客戶完成閥門認證,而剛才提到的第四個基板客戶則預計在年底前完成。

  • For fittings, we announced two customer qualifications in 2024, and a third customer qualification remains in the final stages today. We, likewise, are progressing on a fourth qualification for our fittings product line used in our weldment business, which we expect to achieve later in the second half.

    對於配件,我們宣布將在 2024 年獲得兩項客戶資格,而第三項客戶資格目前仍處於最後階段。同樣,我們正在對焊接業務中使用的配件產品線進行第四次認證,預計將在下半年稍後實現。

  • The key takeaway of our component qualification progress is that by the end of 2025, we expect to have all four of our largest customers qualified on all three of our major product families, valves, fittings, and substrates which will mark a significant milestone for our business. Additionally, we have several exciting new products under development scheduled for later release this year, enabling us to expand our share of the addressable market of our components.

    我們零件認證進展的關鍵點在於,到 2025 年底,我們預計我們最大的四家客戶都將獲得我們三大主要產品系列(閥門、配件和基材)的認證,這將標誌著我們業務的一個重要里程碑。此外,我們還有幾款令人興奮的新產品正在開發中,計劃於今年稍後發布,這使我們能夠擴大我們組件的潛在市場份額。

  • Now I'd like to discuss the outlook we are providing today given the complexities of recent tariff announcements. In general, today, we are affected by the steel and aluminum Section 232 tariffs for certain inbound material to the US. Our Mexico machining business falls under the USMCA exemption as of today.

    現在,我想討論一下我們今天鑑於最近關稅公告的複雜性所提供的展望。總體而言,今天,我們受到了美國針對某些進口鋼材和鋁材徵收第 232 條關稅的影響。自今天起,我們的墨西哥機械加工業務屬於 USMCA 豁免範圍。

  • We are working with our suppliers and customers to mitigate and/or pass on the cost of these tariffs, but there could be some transitory impacts on our gross margin as we work through the processes and customer discussions to incorporate the additional cost of tariffs and their relative impact on total supply chain costs. The final decisions on the semiconductor export controls and tariffs are expected to be issued early this summer. Obviously, there is a large range of outcomes, but we will not speculate on the outcome today.

    我們正在與供應商和客戶合作,以減輕和/或轉嫁這些關稅的成本,但隨著我們透過流程和客戶討論將關稅的額外成本及其對總供應鏈成本的相對影響納入其中,這可能會對我們的毛利率產生一些暫時性影響。有關半導體出口管制和關稅的最終決定預計將於今年夏初發布。顯然,結果會有很大差異,但我們今天不會對結果進行猜測。

  • As we look at our revenue guidance for the second quarter of between $225 million and $245 million, this is about $10 million lower than what our visibility indicated a quarter ago. The lower forecast is not attributable to one particular change in demand but rather several small factors. For example, one customer forecast was recently affected when a domestic device manufacturer began to slow their WFE purchases in advance of understanding the broader implications of various tariff policies.

    我們預計第二季的營收將在 2.25 億美元至 2.45 億美元之間,比我們上一季的預期低了約 1,000 萬美元。較低的預測並非歸因於需求的某一特定變化,而是幾個小因素。例如,最近一家國內設備製造商在了解各種關稅政策的更廣泛影響之前就開始減緩 WFE 採購,這影響了客戶的預測。

  • At the same time, the delivery time lines within lithography and advanced packaging have seen some shifting to the right, while silicon carbide applications have weakened further. This appears to be affecting each of our OEM customers differently, depending on customer and end market exposure, and there's absolutely no question that our primary markets of leading-edge foundries and high-bandwidth memory as well as technology upgrades for NAND continue to move forward on schedule.

    同時,光刻和先進封裝的交付時間線有所右移,而碳化矽的應用則進一步減弱。這似乎對我們的每個 OEM 客戶產生了不同的影響,具體取決於客戶和終端市場曝光度,毫無疑問,我們的主要市場,即領先的代工廠和高頻寬內存以及 NAND 的技術升級,將繼續按計劃向前發展。

  • We have not further handicapped our Q2 revenue guidance to account for additional adverse demand impact that could result from the tariff policy other than what our customers have already incorporated into our visibility. Our visibility is somewhat shorter in duration than where we were on our last earnings call, meaning at this time, we have a good feel for the first half but less confidence in exactly how the second half will shake out. At this time, we think our business in 2025 should be relatively even weighted first half to second half, but I will remind everyone that this is the visibility we have today.

    除了客戶已納入我們能見度的因素外,我們並未進一步調整第二季營收預期,以考慮關稅政策可能造成的額外不利需求影響。與上次收益電話會議相比,我們的可見度持續時間略短,這意味著目前,我們對上半年有良好的感覺,但對下半年的具體情況缺乏信心。目前,我們認為 2025 年的業務上半年和下半年應該相對均衡,但我要提醒大家,這是我們今天的可見度。

  • Before turning the call over to Greg, a few last comments about gross margin. First, I want to provide a bit more context as to the level of proprietary content we expect to achieve this year. As a reminder, prior to stepping up our R&D investment in launching our new products, about 90% of the bill of materials for our gas panel was sourced externally. In 2024, we were able to shrink that by about 5%.

    在將電話轉給格雷格之前,最後想對毛利率發表幾點評論。首先,我想提供更多有關我們今年預期實現的專有內容水平的背景資訊。提醒一下,在我們加大研發投入推出新產品之前,我們瓦斯面板約 90% 的材料都是從外部採購的。到 2024 年,我們將能夠將其縮減約 5%。

  • In 2025, we believe we can make further progress towards reducing external supply down to approximately 75% of the bill of materials. This is meaningful progress, but there is still much more progress to be made. The most leverage will eventually come from increasing penetration of our next-generation gas panel, which has roughly 30% external parts and 70% internal. These gas panels incorporate our proprietary flow control technology.

    到 2025 年,我們相信我們可以取得進一步進展,將外部供應量減少到物料清單的約 75%。這是一個有意義的進步,但仍有許多進步需要取得。最大的槓桿作用最終將來自於我們下一代燃氣面板滲透率的提高,該面板大約有 30% 是外部零件,70% 是內部零件。這些氣體面板採用了我們專有的流量控制技術。

  • Many of the next-generation gas panels delivered to date are currently undergoing qualification with end device manufacturers. These qualifications are particularly important as they represent the first end-user qualifications for our proprietary flow control technology, which constitutes the largest portion of our bill of materials and carries the longest qualification cycle, another critical milestone for Ichor.

    目前已交付的許多下一代氣體面板正在接受終端設備製造商的認證。這些資格認證尤其重要,因為它們代表了我們專有流量控制技術的首個最終用戶資格認證,該技術構成了我們物料清單中最大的部分,並且擁有最長的資格認證週期,這是 Ichor 的另一個重要里程碑。

  • It is not realistic to think that we will be able to move 100% of our gas panels to the Ichor proprietary version, but we expect to continue to make incremental progress. The most immediate and significant impact you should see to our gross margin profile will be as we move from the roughly 15% proprietary content in 2024 towards around the 25% level in 2025.

    認為我們能夠將 100% 的氣體面板轉移到 Ichor 專有版本是不切實際的,但我們希望繼續取得逐步進展。您應該會看到,對我們的毛利率狀況最直接、最顯著的影響是,我們的專有內容佔比將從 2024 年的約 15% 上升至 2025 年的 25% 左右。

  • In Q1, we didn't achieve the flow-through we anticipated due to purchasing far more external supply than forecast. But as our processes improve and we work through these growing pains, we still expect to show incremental improvements to gross margin through each quarter of the year even on similar revenue levels.

    在第一季度,由於購買的外部供應量遠遠超出預期,我們未能實現預期的流通量。但隨著我們流程的改進和我們克服這些成長的煩惱,即使在相似的收入水平下,我們仍然預計每年每季的毛利率都會逐步提高。

  • In February, we were confident that our gross margins for the full year would exceed 16%. Today, we are backing off that absolute number, which is currently prudent in response to the tariff uncertainties as well as the impact of the Q1 miss. With that said, we currently expect our second half gross margin will be in the 15% to 16% range.

    2月份,我們有信心全年毛利率將超過16%。今天,我們放棄了這個絕對數字,這是目前應對關稅不確定性以及第一季業績不佳的影響的謹慎做法。話雖如此,我們目前預計下半年毛利率將在 15% 至 16% 之間。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Greg to recap our Q1 results and provide further details around our financial outlook. Greg?

    接下來,我將把時間交給格雷格,讓他回顧我們的第一季業績,並提供更多有關我們財務前景的細節。格雷格?

  • Greg Swyt - Chief Financial Officer

    Greg Swyt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Jeff. To begin, I would like to emphasize that the P&L metrics discussed today are non-GAAP measures. These measures exclude the impact of share-based compensation, amortization of acquired intangible assets, nonrecurring charges and discrete tax items and adjustments.

    謝謝,傑夫。首先,我想強調的是,今天要討論的損益指標是非公認會計準則指標。這些指標不包括股權激勵、收購無形資產攤銷、非經常性費用以及單獨稅項和調整的影響。

  • There is a useful financial supplement available on the Investors section of our website that summarizes our GAAP and non-GAAP financial results as well as a summary of the balance sheet and cash flow information for the last several quarters. First quarter revenues were $244.5 million, near the midpoint of guidance and up 5% from Q4.

    我們網站的「投資者」部分提供了有用的財務補充資料,其中總結了我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務結果以及過去幾個季度的資產負債表和現金流資訊摘要。第一季營收為 2.445 億美元,接近預期中位數,較第四季成長 5%。

  • The gross margin for the quarter was 12.4%, an increase of 40 basis points from Q4 but below our forecast of 14.5%. As Jeff discussed, the gross margins were negatively affected by several factors, primarily the slower transition from externally supplied products to our internally manufactured products as well as higher costs associated with the redesign efforts of our commercial space contract and the decision to exit our refurbishment business in Scotland.

    本季毛利率為 12.4%,較第四季增加 40 個基點,但低於我們預測的 14.5%。正如傑夫所討論的,毛利率受到多種因素的負面影響,主要是從外部供應產品到內部製造產品的轉變速度較慢,以及與重新設計商業空間合約和退出蘇格蘭翻新業務的決定相關的成本較高。

  • Operating expenses came in at $23.7 million, in line with our expectations. Operating income for Q1 was $6.6 million. Our net interest expense was $1.6 million, and our non-GAAP net income tax expense was below our forecast at $600,000. The resulting EPS was $0.12 per share.

    營運費用為 2,370 萬美元,符合我們的預期。第一季的營業收入為 660 萬美元。我們的淨利息支出為 160 萬美元,非公認會計準則淨所得稅支出低於我們的預測,為 60 萬美元。最終每股收益為 0.12 美元。

  • Turning to the balance sheet. Our cash and equivalents totaled $109 million at the end of the quarter, up slightly from year-end. We generated $19 million in cash flow from operations. And after deducting $18.5 million in capital expenditures, our free cash flow was $500,000.

    轉向資產負債表。截至本季末,我們的現金及等價物總額為 1.09 億美元,較去年末略有成長。我們的營運產生了 1900 萬美元的現金流。扣除 1,850 萬美元的資本支出後,我們的自由現金流為 50 萬美元。

  • Our planned CapEx investments for 2025 are expected to be above our historical average of 2% of revenue as we execute our global expansion of our machining and non-semi business capabilities. We estimate our 2025 CapEx will be closer to 4% of revenue and be front half weighted. Our total debt at quarter end was $127 million, and our net debt coverage ratio has now improved to just 1.5 times, well below any potential threshold for covenants.

    隨著我們在全球範圍內擴展機械加工和非半導體業務能力,我們計劃的 2025 年資本支出預計將高於我們收入的 2% 的歷史平均水平。我們預計,2025 年的資本支出將接近收入的 4%,並且佔前半部的比重。我們季度末的總債務為 1.27 億美元,而我們的淨債務覆蓋率現已提高至 1.5 倍,遠低於任何潛在的契約門檻。

  • Now I'll discuss our guidance for the second quarter of 2025. With anticipated revenues in the range of $225 million to $245 million, we expect our Q2 gross margins will improve to a range of 12.5% to 14%. We expect Q2 operating expenses to be approximately $23.5 million or roughly flat to Q1.

    現在我將討論我們對 2025 年第二季的指導。預計第二季的營收將在 2.25 億美元至 2.45 億美元之間,毛利率將提高至 12.5% 至 14% 之間。我們預計第二季營運費用約為 2,350 萬美元,與第一季基本持平。

  • We expect our OpEx run rate will moderate somewhat in the second half of the year, leading us to expect our year-over-year increase in operating expenses to be somewhat lower than communicated previously and in the range of a 4% to 6% increase compared to 2024.

    我們預計,我們的營運支出運行率將在下半年有所緩和,因此我們預計營運費用的同比增長將略低於先前預期,與 2024 年相比增長 4% 至 6%。

  • Net interest expense for Q2 is expected to be approximately $1.5 million. For modeling purposes, you should model net interest expense for the full year of 2025 to be approximately $6 million. We expect to report a tax expense in Q2 of $800,000. For the full year, we are forecasting a non-GAAP effective tax rate of 12.5%. Finally, our EPS guidance range for Q2 of $0.10 to $0.22 reflects a share count of 34.4 million shares.

    預計第二季淨利息支出約為 150 萬美元。為了建模目的,您應該將 2025 年全年的淨利息支出建模為約 600 萬美元。我們預計第二季的稅費為 80 萬美元。我們預測全年非公認會計準則有效稅率為 12.5%。最後,我們對第二季每股收益的預期範圍為 0.10 美元至 0.22 美元,反映的股數為 3,440 萬股。

  • Operator, we are ready to take questions. Please open the line.

    接線員,我們準備好回答問題了。請開通線路。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Brian Chin, Stifel.

    (操作員指示) Brian Chin,Stifel。

  • Brian Chin - Analyst

    Brian Chin - Analyst

  • Let me just -- I just want to ask a few questions. Maybe the first one on the change in the revenue outlook for the year. Understand kind of what you said, Jeff, about a couple of different factors sort of adding up there. If you try to isolate this on the four buckets of NAND, DRAM, advanced logic and mature semi, which of these do you think is incrementally more cautious relative to your thinking 90 days ago for 2Q and maybe even second half visibility?

    讓我——我只想問幾個問題。這可能是關於今年收入前景變化的第一個消息。傑夫,我理解你所說的,有幾個不同的因素加在一起。如果您嘗試將其從 NAND、DRAM、先進邏輯和成熟半導體四個方面進行分離,您認為哪一個方面相對於您 90 天前對第二季度甚至下半年的預見性的想法更加謹慎?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I would actually -- I think of it a little bit differently, and I'll come back to the segments. But I think the way you guys should think about this is edge and deposition for us are generally the same kind of outlook as we came in.

    是的,實際上——我對此有一點不同的看法,我會回到這些片段。但我認為你們應該這樣看待這個問題:對我們來說,邊緣和沈積通常與我們最初的觀點相同。

  • I would say we're softer in our lithography business today, but more than half of this is coming out of our decision to exit Scotland, softer non-semi business that we see not ramping as fast in the first half, which affects the whole year, and then silicon carbide. And so that's much, much softer, almost to the point where it's -- most of it is shipped into 2026.

    我想說,我們今天的光刻業務比較疲軟,但其中一半以上是因為我們決定退出蘇格蘭,非半導體業務也比較疲軟,我們認為上半年增長速度沒有那麼快,這會影響全年,然後是碳化矽。因此,這個數字要小得多,幾乎達到了這樣的程度——大部分貨物要到 2026 年才能運出。

  • So from a dep and etch, it's stable. And if you kind of look at the flat half over half, it's really about $30 million. And I would say more than half of that is kind of what I would call kind of outside of our core dep and etch business. So it's largely stayed the same. But like we said, we have these pockets that have softened up.

    因此從沉積和蝕刻來看,它是穩定的。如果你看一下一半以上的固定金額,它實際上是 3000 萬美元左右。我想說,其中一半以上屬於我們核心蝕刻業務以外的業務。所以它基本上保持不變。但就像我們所說的,我們的資金已經變得薄弱了。

  • So if that helps. What I would tell you from a segment point of view is we see the same visibility from what we can tell that the NAND investment is continuing. The DRAM is strong around AI and others. And foundry logic is relatively stable, maybe with the exception of one North America OEM that's kind of rationalizing their CapEx.

    如果這有幫助的話。從細分市場的角度來看,我想告訴您的是,我們看到了同樣的可見性,即 NAND 投資仍在繼續。DRAM 在 AI 和其他領域表現強勁。代工邏輯相對穩定,也許除了一家北美 OEM 正在合理化其資本支出。

  • Brian Chin - Analyst

    Brian Chin - Analyst

  • Got it. Okay. And then maybe sort of even one question, follow-up around gross margins and then the tariff, which is, I know, not fully quantifiable at this moment. But in terms of the execution in Q1 on the gross margin internalization of some of those components, out of 100%, how -- out of what you expected to execute, what percent did you actually execute on in terms of the internal sourcing?

    知道了。好的。然後也許還有一個問題,關於毛利率和關稅的後續問題,我知道,目前還不能完全量化。但是,就第一季某些組件的毛利率內部化的執行情況而言,在 100% 的比例中,就您預期的執行情況而言,您在內部採購方面實際執行了多少百分比?

  • And then I know we're months into the second quarter, but how much progress have you already seen here to start the quarter to give you confidence that it's sort of back on a better trajectory?

    然後我知道我們已經進入第二季度幾個月了,但是在本季度開始時您已經看到了多少進展,讓您有信心它已經回到了更好的軌道上?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I would say -- I'm just trying to think, I mean the shortfall, some of it started last quarter and materialized into this quarter. And by the early part of the quarter, we knew we would have to buy some external supply because we couldn't get caught up versus what we exited last quarter we were trying to. So I'd probably say we got, believe it or not, maybe 75% or 80% of what we wanted out of there.

    是的。我想說——我只是試著想想,我的意思是,部分缺口始於上個季度,並在本季度顯現。到本季初,我們知道我們必須購買一些外部供應,因為我們無法趕上我們上個季度退出的情況。所以我想說,不管你信不信,我們可能已經實現了我們想要的 75% 或 80%。

  • Of the new stuff, weldments, fine. That's always -- that's been 10% of the gas box, and that didn't have any hiccups in the quarter. So I think we still see some external purchases into our second quarter, which we've incorporated into our outlook. I think the head count we need to kind of ramp this and doing it is starting to turn the corner.

    新的東西,焊接件,很好。這始終是 - 這佔了天然氣箱的 10%,並且在本季度沒有出現任何問題。因此我認為我們在第二季度仍然會看到一些外部購買,我們已將其納入我們的展望中。我認為我們需要增加人員數量來推動這一進程,而這一進程已經開始出現轉機。

  • And we have much better alignment between -- keep in mind, some of these parts that we manufacture, these are tens of thousands of parts of precision machine parts. So we had some disconnects between what we were able to get out of the factory and what we needed to buy. So I think from a confidence, I think there is some -- there is still a little bit of a headwind that we've incorporated into the next quarter.

    而且我們的協調性要好得多——請記住,我們製造的一些零件是數以萬計的精密機械零件。因此,我們從工廠生產的產品和我們需要購買的產品之間存在一些差距。因此,我認為從信心上來說,下個季度我們仍然會遇到一些阻力。

  • And then we kind of talked about the second half of the year being in that 15%, 16%. You're starting to see the flow-through even on flat revenue levels increasing again. So you -- like I said on the call, I think the strategy is working. We're still kind of growing pains and executing to get all of this aligned through our factories. And we have three large integration sites.

    然後我們談到了下半年的 15% 或 16% 的情況。您開始看到,即使在收入水準持平的情況下,流通量也再次增加。所以——就像我在電話裡說的那樣,我認為這個策略正在發揮作用。我們仍在經歷成長的煩惱,並透過我們的工廠努力使所有這些協調一致。我們有三個大型整合站點。

  • Brian Chin - Analyst

    Brian Chin - Analyst

  • Got it. And I'd just close out. I imagine when you have to sort of resource or increase a source to some of your suppliers, maybe it's not in the best terms in terms of that short window. But it sounds like, overall, the qualifications and the cut-ins are kind of progressing as you expected. It's just sort of your ability to catch up in an efficient way with that.

    知道了。我只想結束這一切。我想,當你必須對某些供應商進行資源分配或增加貨源時,在這麼短的時間內,可能不是最好的選擇。但聽起來,總體而言,資格和切入都在按照您預期的方式進展。這只是你以有效方式趕上這一點的能力。

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Brian, that's a good point. I mean I'd almost say that they were -- they came out of the gate a little stronger than we were ready for. So I think they're progressing even as well as we thought and maybe a little bit better.

    是的,布萊恩,你的觀點很好。我的意思是,我幾乎要說他們——他們一開始就表現得比我們預想的要強大一些。所以我認為他們的進步和我們想像的一樣好,甚至可能更好一些。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

    Krish Sankar,TD Cowen。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • I had few of them, Jeff. First one, just to clarify the gross margin miss. You mentioned it's growing pains. Are you seeing any of your customers trying to push down the tariff costs on to the suppliers like you? Or that has not been a factor yet?

    我有幾個,傑夫。首先,只是為了澄清毛利率未達標的原因。您提到這是成長的煩惱。您是否發現任何客戶試圖將關稅成本轉嫁給像您這樣的供應商?或者這還不是一個因素?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • I would say we're fortunate enough in my earlier comments that our factory in Mexico is exempt through the USMCA exemption. I'd say the 90-day exemption for semiconductors in CapEx has gotten most of ours covered. I think the area that we're most exposed at today is the Section 232, which is really around steel. It really is our weldment business that ships back to the US. And so we're still working on that process to push that through pricing and things like that.

    我想說,正如我之前所說,我們很幸運,我們在墨西哥的工廠通過 USMCA 豁免獲得了豁免。我想說,資本支出中對半導體的 90 天豁免已經涵蓋了我們的大部分業務。我認為我們今天最受關注的領域是第 232 條,該條款主要涉及鋼鐵。這確實是我們的焊接件業務,運回美國。因此,我們仍在努力透過定價等方式推動這項進程。

  • So we -- like we said, we might see some transitory. We're hoping that we can get all of this stuff worked out between our customers and ourselves. I think our customers truly understand what's happened here. I think there's a pretty good collaboration at this point to help them and help us through this. So I think it's moving -- it's moving in the right direction.

    所以,就像我們說的,我們可能會看到一些短暫的現象。我們希望我們和客戶能夠共同解決所有這些問題。我認為我們的客戶真正了解這裡發生的事情。我認為目前的合作非常好,可以幫助他們,也可以幫助我們度過難關。所以我認為它正在朝著正確的方向發展。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • Got you. And for some of your other customers, is there -- can you like ship stuff from your Malaysia facility to mitigate the effect of tariffs? Or it doesn't work that way because of all of your big customers are in the US? Or do you also have facilities overseas?

    明白了。對於您的其他一些客戶,您是否可以從馬來西亞工廠發貨以減輕關稅的影響?還是因為你們所有的大客戶都在美國,所以情況就無法如此了?或是你們在海外也有設施嗎?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. All of our customers have facilities overseas. I would say we have kind of a natural hedge that we could affect depending on how the tariffs work out and pass through the cost of building in the US versus Malaysia. They might be closer than you think between tariffs and no tariffs.

    是的。我們所有的客戶都在海外設有工廠。我想說,我們有一種自然的對沖,我們可以根據關稅如何實施來影響它,並轉嫁在美國而不是馬來西亞的建築成本。關稅與無關稅之間的差距可能比你想像的還要小。

  • But until there's kind of final agreements country by country -- obviously, we have one large customer that manufactures almost all of their systems now offshore. We can support them fully. And then one customer that probably builds -- well, I won't say what percentage, but a very large proportion that we service out of Singapore. So I think -- and our fourth largest customer is largely a Singapore-based operation, too. So a little bit less of an impact for them.

    但在各國達成最終協議之前——顯然,我們有一個大客戶,幾乎所有系統現在都在海外生產。我們可以全力支持他們。然後可能會有一個客戶——好吧,我不會說具體比例,但是我們在新加坡提供服務的比例非常大。所以我認為──我們的第四大客戶也主要是一家位於新加坡的公司。所以對他們的影響較小。

  • Krish Sankar - Analyst

    Krish Sankar - Analyst

  • Got it. And then final question, Jeff. I understand there are so many moving parts to tariffs and the macro, but you kind of implied second half similar to first half, which is still a pretty healthy growth year over year of like 13% versus WFE for the full year. And in the past, I remember your visibility has been about four to five months. So I'm just kind of curious, if we look into that, is it fair to assume where is the strength to you in calendar Q2 and your conviction on calendar Q2 coming from? Is it NAND upgrades? Is it leading edge? Any color on that?

    知道了。最後一個問題,傑夫。我知道關稅和宏觀因素有很多變化,但您暗示下半年與上半年類似,與 WFE 全年相比,下半年仍保持相當健康的同比增長,約為 13%。過去,我記得你的可見度大約是四到五個月。所以我只是有點好奇,如果我們研究一下,是否可以公平地假設您在日曆 Q2 中的優勢在哪裡以及您對日曆 Q2 的信心來自哪裡?是 NAND 升級嗎?它是前沿技術嗎?有顏色嗎?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. I mean we -- obviously, we don't get all the sell-through. But I would say, NAND, still pretty strong. I'd say, obviously, we can see DRAM strength. I'd say we could see that into the third quarter. I'd say our lithography business is probably troughing in the second quarter. So that will kind of start -- we believe, kind of start growing in the second half.

    是的。我的意思是——顯然,我們沒有獲得全部的銷售量。但我想說,NAND 仍然非常強大。我想說,顯然我們可以看到 DRAM 的實力。我想我們可以在第三季度看到這一點。我想說我們的光刻業務可能在第二季陷入低谷。因此,我們相信,這將在下半年開始成長。

  • Obviously, we have four large customers with kind of different outlooks. And so what I would tell you is we're very closely mirrored to all of our process tool customers and what they're seeing out there. We do build ahead of when they revenue and things like that. But yeah, we still see the strength in Q2 around the dep and etch side, which is really driven by the investments in foundry logic, NAND upgrades and DRAM.

    顯然,我們有四個大客戶,他們的觀點各不相同。所以我想告訴你們的是,我們與所有工藝工具客戶以及他們所看到的情況非常接近。我們確實在他們獲得收入和諸如此類的事情之前就已經準備好了。但是,是的,我們仍然看到第二季度在沉積和蝕刻方面的強勁表現,這實際上是受到代工邏輯、NAND 升級和 DRAM 投資的推動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Charles Shi, Needham & Company.

    Charles Shi,Needham & Company。

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • Jeff, Greg, obviously, I think you will get this question a lot, if you haven't. Your largest customer is guiding to a softer second half of the year. Obviously, we don't know if they just want to be conservative or that's the true outlook that they are seeing. But it sounds like you're now, I mean, anticipating maybe second half will be flattish half-over-half. What do you think will be the disconnect between what you see and what the largest customer is publicly guiding everyone to in terms of the second half?

    傑夫、格雷格,顯然,我想你們會常常被問到這個問題,如果你們還沒被問到的話。您最大的客戶預計下半年經濟將較為疲軟。顯然,我們不知道他們是否只是想保持保守,或者這就是他們所看到的真實前景。但聽起來你現在,我的意思是,預計下半年可能會持平。您認為,就下半年而言,您所看到的情況與最大客戶公開引導大家的情況之間會存在哪些差距?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Well, it's a good question. I mean we did anticipate that we might get this. I would tell you that we're pretty mirrored with our customers, and our customers all have different trajectories front half, second half. What I would tell you is we believe the second quarter is the low point for us in our EUV and lithography products.

    是的。嗯,這是個好問題。我的意思是我們確實預料到我們可能會得到這個。我想告訴你,我們與客戶非常相似,我們的客戶前半部和後半部都有不同的軌跡。我想告訴你的是,我們認為第二季度是我們的 EUV 和光刻產品的低谷。

  • So that offsets. Semi will get stronger in the second half. So we have natural kind of offsets for anything that they see and forecast. I won't comment specifically what we see from them, obviously, but I would tell you we don't see any significant disconnect front half to back half from what our customers are talking about in the marketplace as well.

    這樣就抵消了。Semi 在下半年將會更加強大。因此,對於他們所看到和預測的任何事物,我們都有自然的抵消措施。顯然,我不會具體評論我們從他們身上看到了什麼,但我要告訴你,我們沒有看到前半部分與後半部分與我們的客戶在市場上談論的內容有任何明顯的脫節。

  • And then the other thing I might point out, Charles, is that -- and I don't know the exact percentages, but our largest customer and our second largest customer are within a few percentage points, okay? And so we have two really pretty large customers.

    然後我想指出的另一件事是,查爾斯,我不知道確切的百分比,但我們最大的客戶和第二大客戶的差距在幾個百分點以內,好嗎?因此,我們有兩個非常大的客戶。

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • Yeah. Yeah. Got it. Got it. Got it. I got your point about the second and not being too far behind that number one.

    是的。是的。知道了。知道了。知道了。我明白你關於第二點的觀點,而且第二點與第一點差距不大。

  • Yeah. So Jeff, maybe another question. I do want to come back to one thing you said that regarding a purchase of externally sourced components. Was this something kind of caught -- really caught you off the guard, something really surprised you that your customer ended up they want more external stuff?

    是的。那麼 Jeff,也許還有另一個問題。我確實想回到您所說的關於購買外部採購組件的一件事。這是不是讓你措手不及,讓你很驚訝,你的客戶最終想要更多外部的東西?

  • Because I thought that this is something what your customer has to qualify, even maybe your customers' customers need to qualify it as the conclusion was made a long time ago. But why this is happening? And if any additional color you can provide us and -- because we do want to know whether this is a temporary step-back or maybe we have to think this is going to be very -- we need to think about different rate of adoption for your internally sourced components.

    因為我認為這是你的客戶必須要鑑定的事情,甚至你的客戶的客戶也需要鑑定它,因為這個結論很久以前就已經得出了。但為什麼會發生這種情況呢?如果您能為我們提供任何其他資訊——因為我們確實想知道這是否是暫時的倒退,或者也許我們必須認為這將是非常——我們需要考慮您內部採購組件的不同採用率。

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Actually, Charles, I think it's a good question. And hopefully, I can help add a lot of clarity here. One is I think the demand for our products and qualifications is in line, if not a little stronger. Our challenge is lining that up with making sure that it gets delivered on time to our integration sites.

    是的。事實上,查爾斯,我認為這是一個很好的問題。希望我能夠幫助您在這裡更加清晰地了解情況。一是我認為對我們的產品和資質的需求是一致的,甚至更強烈。我們面臨的挑戰是確保它能夠準時交付到我們的整合站點。

  • And that's where we had the challenges. So it's not from a demand point of view. It's really from the supply point of view. We don't have customers saying, don't buy our stuff. Once we're qualified, we have -- we can go fully and cut it in and use our supply. We can also use external supply, obviously, because we had to do that to fill in our gaps. But we do not have anyone dictating to us what we can or cannot use at this stage.

    這就是我們面臨的挑戰。所以這不是從需求的角度出發的。這確實是從供應的角度而言的。我們不會聽到顧客說「不要買我們的東西」。一旦我們具備資格,我們就可以全力投入並使用我們的供應。顯然,我們也可以使用外部供應,因為我們必須這樣做來填補我們的空白。但目前沒有人規定我們可以使用什麼或不能使用什麼。

  • So these are passive parts. So once they're qualified, we can use them across our product line. So that's not the problem. The problem was getting our supply up quick enough to cut in, in advance of we made the decision at a pricing level. We share some of the benefits of in-sourcing with our customers and maintain a lot of the margin accretion internally.

    所以這些是被動式部分。因此,一旦它們合格,我們就可以在我們的整個產品線上使用它們。所以這不是問題。問題是,在我們做出定價決定之前,我們要快速地提高供應量,以便能夠介入。我們與客戶分享內部採購的一些好處,並在內部保持大量的利潤成長。

  • And that had an effect as well is -- because then we didn't get our profit on the parts that we built and/or we didn't get to absorb our factory overhead as well. And that's the two primary pieces of the gross margin.

    這也產生了影響——因為我們沒有從我們製造的零件上獲得利潤,也沒有吸收工廠的間接費用。這是毛利率的兩個主要部分。

  • Charles Shi - Analyst

    Charles Shi - Analyst

  • Got it. Maybe, Jeff, if I may kind of squeeze in one quick question. Maybe this is a clarification. On the press release, there's -- you put the footnote to the GAAP to -- non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliation for your operating -- maybe it's not operating. It's the total expenses, about $1.5 million.

    知道了。也許吧,傑夫,如果我可以擠出時間問一個簡單的問題。也許這是一個澄清。在新聞稿中,您將腳註放在 GAAP 上,以便將非 GAAP 與 GAAP 進行對賬,以便進行運營,也許這不是運營。總支出約 150 萬美元。

  • And the footnote says it represents severance costs associated with the global reduction in force programs. I think that I heard you only talking about exiting Scotland, but the footnote sounds like it's not a restructuring just around Scotland but somewhere else as well. If you can clarify, that would be great.

    註腳中說,這筆錢是與全球裁員計畫相關的遣散費。我想我聽到的只是你談論退出蘇格蘭,但腳註聽起來這不僅僅是圍繞蘇格蘭的重組,還包括其他地方的重組。如果您能澄清一下,那就太好了。

  • Greg Swyt - Chief Financial Officer

    Greg Swyt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Charles, this is Greg. I'll take that. So obviously, we mentioned that we had made the decision to exit Scotland. That was the majority of that $1.5 million severance costs that we took for those individuals impacted. And so that was the majority of it. We did have some smaller reductions in the quarter, but Scotland was by far the majority of that charge as we plan for those individuals to exit.

    查爾斯,這是格雷格。我會接受的。所以很明顯,我們提到我們已經決定離開蘇格蘭。這是我們為受影響的個人支付的 150 萬美元遣散費中的大部分。這就是大部分內容。本季我們確實有一些較小幅度的削減,但由於我們計劃讓這些人退出,因此蘇格蘭的削減佔了絕大多數。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Craig Ellis, B. Riley Securities.

    克雷格·艾利斯 (Craig Ellis),B. Riley 證券。

  • Craig Ellis - Analyst

    Craig Ellis - Analyst

  • Yeah. And at the risk of beating a dead horse, I'll start with gross margins. So Jeff, you've provided a lot of color. I think what I'm missing as I just listened to a pretty full discussion of what's going on is where exactly the issue arose. Is it the company's inability to forecast the amount of supply it needs to get that on site so that it can do some initial work?

    是的。儘管可能有點重複,但我還是先從毛利率開始說起。傑夫,你提供了很多色彩。我認為,當我剛剛聽完關於正在發生的事情的相當全面的討論時,我忽略了問題到底出現在哪裡。是不是因為公司無法預測現場需要多少供應量才能進行一些初步工作?

  • Is it with the initial work? And the second part of the question is, what new monitoring steps have been put in place? And how quickly or how regularly are things being monitored so that you, on your dashboard, have optics into what's going on and can confidently steer gross margins to guidance going forward?

    和初期工作有關嗎?問題的第二部分是,已經採取了哪些新的監控措施?監控的速度和頻率如何,以便您在儀表板上了解正在發生的事情,並可以自信地將毛利率引導到未來的指導水平?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Good question, Craig. So the simple answer is yes. As we were forecasting this business, we had the demand forecasted pretty clearly. The supply inbound and coming out of the machining operations is often complicated.

    是的。問得好,克雷格。所以簡單的答案是肯定的。當我們預測這項業務時,我們對需求的預測非常清楚。機械加工操作的進出供應通常很複雜。

  • We had other products that ramp that we had cut in front of other products and by the time we realized that we had to make the decision to buy some external because two-thirds of our business is still the gas panel integration business. So we can't risk deliveries there.

    我們還有其他產品在增加,但我們在其他產品之前就削減了,當我們意識到這一點時,我們必須做出購買一些外部產品的決定,因為我們三分之二的業務仍然是燃氣面板整合業務。所以我們不能冒險向那裡發貨。

  • So yeak, we kind of didn't get our -- I call it the [gazintas] and the [gazoutas] lined up. But this quarter, what I would tell you is the level of detail of which I'm digging in and others on my team are digging in or trying -- to ensure alignment to demand.

    是的,我們有點沒有得到——我稱之為 [gazintas] 和 [gazoutas] 排隊。但本季度,我想告訴你們的是,我和我的團隊正在深入研究或嘗試的細節程度——以確保與需求保持一致。

  • We're just going to go deeper into the organization so it doesn't get to us. I mean we could have done a better job of forecasting the bottom line. And we probably could have predicted some of this, which would have probably manifested in a similar result but giving you guys some visibility to it.

    我們會更深入地了解該組織,這樣它就不會影響我們。我的意思是我們本可以更好地預測底線。我們可能已經預測了其中的一些情況,這可能會表現出類似的結果,但會讓你們對此有所了解。

  • When I talked about quarter two, Craig, we also said there's still some headwinds that we're working through. They're much less significant. And so the front half of the year has got a more muted gross margin. And then for the full year, obviously, we won't get to the 16% we talked about on the last call just because you can't make up for lost time and the margin stack.

    克雷格,當我談到第二季時,我們也說過,我們仍在努力克服一些阻力。它們的重要性要小得多。因此,今年上半年的毛利率比較低。然後,就全年而言,顯然,我們無法達到上次電話會議上談到的 16%,因為你無法彌補失去的時間和利潤累積。

  • Craig Ellis - Analyst

    Craig Ellis - Analyst

  • And then just looking at revenues, Jeff. We've got a range for the current quarter. Can you just frame up what's different from the low end to the high end of the range in terms of what you can see today? What would it take for revenues to come in at the low end? What would need to happen for revenues to come in at the high end?

    然後只看收入,傑夫。我們已經獲得了當前季度的範圍。就您今天所看到的情況而言,您能否概括出該範圍的低端和高端之間有何不同?要達到最低收入需要什麼條件?要讓收入達到高端,需要發生什麼?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. The low end, I think, as things just start to shift to the right for whatever reason, demand horizons start to shift, customers want to push things out today, but I'd say holding pretty well. To get to the high end, it's just customers really shifting from quarter three probably into quarter two and starting to pull some stuff in a little bit.

    是的。我認為,就低端而言,無論出於何種原因,隨著事情開始向右轉轉變,需求範圍開始轉變,客戶希望今天就推出產品,但我認為保持得相當好。為了達到高端,客戶實際上可能從第三季度轉向第二季度,並開始少量購買一些東西。

  • And then you just -- we get a tremendous amount of demand moving between quarters and every quarter. So we try and range that kind of up 10 down 10. But I would say we're probably not going to get any significant new tariff news until early Q3, but that could have an effect, which we have not incorporated.

    然後你就——我們在每個季度之間都會遇到大量的需求。因此,我們嘗試將範圍擴大 10 倍,再縮小 10 倍。但我想說,我們可能要到第三季初才會收到任何重要的新關稅消息,但這可能會產生影響,而我們尚未將其納入考慮。

  • Craig Ellis - Analyst

    Craig Ellis - Analyst

  • Got it. And then if I could sneak one in for Greg. Greg, you gave some clear color on 2Q OpEx. As we look at the back half of the year, should we expect it to be fairly steady? Or how do things trend?

    知道了。然後我是否可以偷偷帶一份給格雷格。格雷格,你對第二季的營運支出給了清晰的說明。當我們展望下半年時,我們是否應該預期它會相當穩定?或者事情的趨勢如何?

  • Greg Swyt - Chief Financial Officer

    Greg Swyt - Chief Financial Officer

  • Craig, I think we said we would moderate it. So we said -- last time, we were saying 5% to 7%, so 4% to 6%. It will be down slightly but not materially in the second half as we've had some front-end loaded costs in Q1, Q2. So you can moderate it down a little bit but not significantly.

    克雷格,我想我們說過我們會對其進行調節。所以我們說——上次我們說的是 5% 到 7%,所以是 4% 到 6%。由於我們在第一季和第二季有一些前期成本,因此下半年將會略有下降,但不會大幅下降。因此你可以稍微緩和一下,但不要太明顯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Diffely, D.A. Davidson.

    湯姆·迪菲利、D.A.戴維森。

  • Thomas Diffely - Analyst

    Thomas Diffely - Analyst

  • So Jeff, I was curious, has your view of the required manpower or the actual yields of the internal source changed at all? And has your long-term view of the incremental margins from this project changed at all?

    所以傑夫,我很好奇,你對所需人力或內部來源的實際收益的看法有任何改變嗎?您對該專案的增量利潤的長期看法是否有所改變?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • I'll answer the easy question. The incremental margin in the long run has not changed. I think we still have to get down what I'd call the learning curve. I think the resources, the machinists are coming along pretty well. But keep in mind, we also need assembly people and things like that.

    我來回答這個簡單的問題。長期來看增量利潤率沒有改變。我認為我們仍然需要了解我所說的學習曲線。我認為資源和機械師的進展都相當順利。但請記住,我們還需要組裝人員和類似的東西。

  • And so a lot of this is centralized around our Minnesota operations. And so the head count is coming in pretty well. And then that helps us offset some of the higher-cost external resources that we use to start this ramp.

    因此,許多工作都集中在我們的明尼蘇達州業務上。因此人數統計進展順利。這有助於我們抵消啟動這一成長所需的一些成本較高的外部資源。

  • Thomas Diffely - Analyst

    Thomas Diffely - Analyst

  • And is the long-term plan to regionalize this where you do this in every region? Or is it going to be a global operation?

    你們的長期計劃是將其區域化,在每個地區都這樣做嗎?或者這將是一次全球性的行動?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • We will. And I think if you look, our CapEx was pretty healthy in Q1. That's all largely around our kind of global expansion for what we see coming, which the largest piece is going to be a machining operation in Malaysia. So we are going to globalize it and build certain things in certain places. And that strategy may, in fact, actually help a little bit if tariffs stick around permanently and things like that. So that facility is kind of a 2026 start-up.

    我們將。我認為如果你看一下,你會發現我們第一季的資本支出相當健康。這主要與我們所預見的全球擴張有關,其中最大的部分將是在馬來西亞的機械加工業務。因此,我們要將其全球化,並在某些地方建造某些東西。事實上,如果關稅永久存在或諸如此類的情況,這種策略實際上可能會有所幫助。所以該設施有點像是 2026 年啟動的。

  • Thomas Diffely - Analyst

    Thomas Diffely - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up. Greg, maybe is there some way you can quantify the steel aluminum tariff impact on you?

    好的。偉大的。然後只是作為後續行動。格雷格,您能否以某種方式量化鋼鐵鋁關稅對您的影響?

  • Greg Swyt - Chief Financial Officer

    Greg Swyt - Chief Financial Officer

  • So to quantify it, Tom, we've looked at what we think it's going to be. So right now, it's about 15% of our inbound.

    因此,為了量化它,湯姆,我們已經研究過我們認為它會是什麼。所以現在,它大約占我們入站流量的 15%。

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • It's really coming from Asia.

    它確實來自亞洲。

  • Greg Swyt - Chief Financial Officer

    Greg Swyt - Chief Financial Officer

  • US inbound, right? So Malaysia is kind of the largest piece of it. But the steel side right now is -- let's see. What did we say? It's -- yeah, on the 232 tariffs. So that's the steel, right? So it's not significant, Tom, at this point because we work through ways to mitigate that through finding suppliers or diverting it to our -- not coming into the US. Also remember Mexico is not -- is exempt from that at this point.

    美國入境吧?馬來西亞是其中最大的一塊。但現在鋼鐵方面的情況是——讓我們拭目以待。我們說了什麼?是的,關於 232 關稅。這就是鋼材,對嗎?所以湯姆,目前這並不重要,因為我們正在想辦法減輕這一影響,例如尋找供應商或將其轉移到我們這裡——而不是進入美國。也要記住,墨西哥目前也不能免除這一點。

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. And our largest weldment facility is Malaysia, which is -- it dwarfs any of the capabilities and volume that we have in the US. The US does what I would call more sophisticated weldment subassemblies. And so we have to work -- that's the one that's getting us. 232 does not allow duty drawback, either for our customers or for us if we do it. So that's the one that is the biggest obstacle.

    是的。我們最大的焊接工廠位於馬來西亞,其生產能力和產量遠超我們在美國的任何工廠。美國生產了我所稱的更複雜的焊接件組件。所以我們必須努力——這就是我們面臨的問題。 232 不允許退稅,無論對我們的客戶或對我們自己都是如此。所以這是最大的障礙。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Edward Yang, Oppenheimer & Company.

    愛德華楊,奧本海默公司。

  • Edward Yang - Analyst

    Edward Yang - Analyst

  • Jeff, you mentioned the core dep and etch outlook has not changed. What's your level of confidence that stays strong? You had a large OEM and process control postpone their Analyst Day. And are there any historical parallels that you could draw on in terms of the current environment relative to the past that could kind of guide you in terms of forecasting?

    傑夫,你提到核心 dep 和 etch 前景沒有改變。您的自信心維持到什麼程度?一家大型 OEM 和流程控制公司推遲了他們的分析師日。就當前環境與過去相比,您是否可以藉鏡一些歷史相似之處,以引導您的預測?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • It's not COVID. That went the other direction. I think the uncertainty and the fact that people are being a little careful is really around the geopolitical uncertainty of what's going to happen once they make a final determination for semiconductors and semiconductor capital equipment and then the supply chain below it. I don't -- I mean you'd have to ask the other company why they push something out.

    這不是新冠病毒。那是另一個方向。我認為不確定性以及人們有點謹慎的事實實際上是圍繞著地緣政治的不確定性,一旦他們對半導體和半導體資本設備以及其下的供應鏈做出最終決定,將會發生什麼。我不知道——我的意思是你必須問其他公司為什麼他們要推出某些產品。

  • But today, all I can do is tell you what I'm seeing. We do not see a demand erosion beyond the pockets that I talked about earlier in the call. We see -- we still have a clear message that 2026 is going to be a pretty strong year. Don't stop planning for that. We all have to wait out the final export control and tariff situation before we can make any final determinations on if that's going to lead to some level of demand reduction.

    但今天,我所能做的就是告訴你我所看到的一切。我們並沒有看到我之前在電話會議中談到的超出預算範圍的需求下降。我們看到——我們仍然有一個明確的訊息,那就是 2026 年將是相當強勁的一年。不要停止為此做計劃。我們都必須等待最終的出口管制和關稅情況,然後才能最終確定這是否會導致一定程度的需求減少。

  • But right now, I think most of us are just dealing with what we can see in front of us. And by early summer, I think we'll start to hear the next wave around semiconductors and whether they're going to continue to be exempt. Remember, they're exempt in the one area we were really worried outside of the US, China. China is still allowing the flow of the equipment.

    但現在,我認為我們大多數人只是在處理我們眼前所看到的事情。到初夏,我認為我們將開始聽到有關半導體的下一波浪潮,以及它們是否會繼續受到豁免。請記住,除了美國之外,我們真正擔心的一個地區——中國,他們是免稅的。中國仍然允許該設備流通。

  • Edward Yang - Analyst

    Edward Yang - Analyst

  • Got it. And maybe a longer-term question. But with all this tariff and logistics uncertainty, are your customers more open to outsourcing components and subassemblies?

    知道了。這或許是個長期問題。但是,由於關稅和物流方面的不確定性,您的客戶是否更願意外包零件和子組件?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • I think, the way I would think about that is we have a global footprint. We have some flexibility that can work with them. But you have to go one step deeper, Ed, which is where is the sourcing of steel coming into the US. And that's what's getting us because not everything is US. Our non-semi business, our IMG business we talk about, they don't buy anything outside the US.

    我認為,我的想法是,我們有一個全球足跡。我們有一定的彈性,可以與他們合作。但是你必須更深入地了解一下,艾德,那就是進入美國的鋼鐵來源是哪裡。這就是我們所面臨的問題,因為並非所有事物都是美國的。我們談論的非半導體業務、IMG 業務,他們不會在美國以外購買任何東西。

  • We buy most of our base materials in the US. It's really the tubing and weldments that we're getting affected on. So those have some ability to flex around over time, but you would have to have a clear vision before you start making those moves.

    我們的大部分基礎材料都在美國購買。我們真正受到影響的是管道和焊接件。因此,這些措施具有隨著時間的推移而靈活變化的能力,但在開始採取這些措施之前,你必須有一個清晰的願景。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christian Schwab, Craig-Hallum.

    克里斯蒂安·施瓦布,克雷格·哈勒姆。

  • Christian Schwab - Analyst

    Christian Schwab - Analyst

  • Guys, it wasn't clear to me the size of the Scotland operations on an annual basis. Can you give us an idea of what the average annual revenue of the Scotland operation was in '23 and '24?

    夥計們,我不清楚蘇格蘭每年的業務規模是多少。您能否告訴我們 1923 年和 1924 年蘇格蘭業務的平均年收入是多少?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I would say -- I don't have it on the top of my head, but I would say '23 was probably 20-ish, a little lighter in '24, got tremendously lighter towards the end of '24. Then in Q1, it's just the demand dissipated. It's -- they did some legacy tool refurbishments under a license. That license expired. They were not able to backfill in another business. So I would say, on the full year, somewhere close to $10 million kind of came out of our horizon.

    是的。我想說——我記不太清楚,但我想說 23 年大概是 20 左右,24 年稍微輕一點,到 24 年底輕了很多。然後在第一季度,需求就消失了。他們在許可下對一些遺留工具進行了翻新。該許可證已過期。他們無法在其他業務中填補空缺。所以我想說,就全年而言,我們的收入大約有 1000 萬美元。

  • Christian Schwab - Analyst

    Christian Schwab - Analyst

  • Great. And then it wasn't clear to me. You gave a lot of numbers around gross margins, but let's just start with like where you started with 90% external components. What does that percentage need to go down to drive your aspirational gross margin target of 18% to 20%?

    偉大的。但後來我就不明白了。您給了很多有關毛利率的數字,但我們先從 90% 的外部組件開始。為了實現您期望的 18% 至 20% 的毛利率目標,該百分比需要下降多少?

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • I think by the end of '25, we'll be at about 25%, internal, 75% external. We'd have to get some proportion of the flow controller in there. To tell you the truth, I'd probably be guessing, Christian, exactly how much. But to get there, we would have to have some reasonable level of either the full gas panel, the new gas panel and/or whether the flow control -- the next generation is really going to be backwards compatible, and that's probably going to be a faster move. But I don't know.

    我認為到 2025 年底,內部投資佔比將達到 25%,外部投資比例將達到 75%。我們必須在那裡安裝一定比例的流量控制器。說實話,克里斯蒂安,我可能只能猜出具體是多少。但要實現這一目標,我們必須擁有合理水平的完整氣體面板、新氣體面板和/或流量控制——下一代是否真正向後相容,這可能是一個更快的舉措。但我不知道。

  • If I was to guess, $40 million or $50 million of that probably gets us pretty close to the 19% on top of what's going on, on the passive parts today.

    如果我猜的話,其中的 4,000 萬美元或 5,000 萬美元可能使我們非常接近目前被動部分的 19%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • With that, there are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back to Jeff Andreson for closing remarks.

    至此,目前沒有其他問題了。現在我想請傑夫安德森作最後發言。

  • Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Andreson - Chief Executive Officer

  • I want to thank you for joining us on our call this quarter. I'd like to thank our employees, suppliers, customers, and investors for their ongoing dedication and support. Later this month, we will be participating in the B. Riley conference in L.A., the Craig-Hallum conference in Minneapolis and the TD Cowen conference in New York. After that, we will look forward to our next quarterly update in early August for our Q2 earnings call.

    感謝您參加我們本季的電話會議。我要感謝我們的員工、供應商、客戶和投資者的持續奉獻和支持。本月晚些時候,我們將參加在洛杉磯舉行的 B. Riley 會議、在明尼阿波利斯舉行的 Craig-Hallum 會議和在紐約舉行的 TD Cowen 會議。之後,我們將期待在 8 月初召開的第二季財報電話會議上進行下一次季度更新。

  • In the meantime, please feel free to reach out to Claire directly if you'd like a follow-up with us. Thank you.

    同時,如果您想與我們進行後續跟進,請隨時直接聯繫克萊爾。謝謝。