洲際交易所 (ICE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

ICE 公佈 2024 年業績創紀錄,調整後每股盈餘較去年同期成長 8%。他們實現了 1.75 億美元的營運費用綜效,並預計到 2025 年底將實現 2 億美元的全部協同效應目標。他們計劃回購股票,實現約 3 倍 EBITDA 的槓桿水平,並預計 2025 年各部門都會成長。

ICE 在期貨和能源市場表現創下了紀錄,專注於利用數據和技術創造價值。該公司預計,2025 年對能源、利率和商品風險管理工具的需求將繼續增長。

ICE 對其財務前景持樂觀態度,並看到各個市場存在潛在的成長機會。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, everyone, and welcome to the ICE fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call and webcast. My name is Lydia, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)

    大家好,歡迎參加 ICE 2024 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。我的名字是 Lydia,今天我將擔任您的接線生。(操作員指令)

  • I'll now hand you over to Katia Gonzalez, Manager of Investor Relations, to begin. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把電話交給投資者關係經理卡蒂亞·岡薩雷斯 (Katia Gonzalez) 來開始。請繼續。

  • Katia Gonzalez - Manager of Investor Relations

    Katia Gonzalez - Manager of Investor Relations

  • Good morning. ICE's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings release and presentation can be found in the Investors section of ice.com. These items will be archived and our call will be available for replay.

    早安.ICE 2024 年第四季財報和介紹可在 ice.com 的投資者部分找到。這些內容將被存檔,並且我們的通話將可供重播。

  • Today's call may contain forward-looking statements. These statements, which we undertake no obligation to update, represent our current judgment and are subject to risks, assumptions and uncertainties. For a description of the risks that could cause our results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, please refer to our 2024 Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC.

    今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些聲明代表我們目前的判斷,並且受風險、假設和不確定性的影響,我們不承擔更新的義務。有關可能導致我們的結果與前瞻性陳述中所述的結果有重大差異的風險的描述,請參閱我們的 2024 年 10-K 表格和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件。

  • In our earnings supplement, we refer to certain non-GAAP measures. We believe our non-GAAP measures are more reflective of our cash operations and core business performance. You'll find a reconciliation to the prevailing GAAP terms in our earnings materials. When used on this call, net revenue refers to revenue net of transaction-based expenses and adjusted earnings refers to adjusted diluted earnings per share. Throughout this presentation, unless otherwise indicated, references to revenue growth are on a constant currency basis.

    在我們的收益補充中,我們參考了某些非公認會計準則指標。我們相信,我們的非公認會計準則指標更能反映我們的現金營運和核心業務表現。您可以在我們的收益資料中找到與現行 GAAP 條款的對帳。在本次電話會議上,淨收入是指扣除交易費用後的收入,調整後收益是指調整後的每股稀釋收益。在本演示中,除非另有說明,收入成長的提及均以固定匯率計算。

  • Please see the explanatory notes on the second page of the earnings supplement for additional details regarding the definition of certain items.

    關於某些項目的定義的更多詳細信息,請參閱收益補充文件第二頁的解釋性說明。

  • With us on the call today are Jeff Sprecher, Chair and CEO; Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer; Ben Jackson, President; Lynn Martin, President of the NYSE; and Chris Edmonds, President of Fixed Income & Data Services.

    今天與我們一起參加電話會議的有董事長兼執行長 Jeff Sprecher;華倫‧加德納 (Warren Gardiner),財務長;本‧傑克森 (Ben Jackson) 總裁;紐約證券交易所總裁林恩馬丁 (Lynn Martin);以及固定收益和數據服務總裁克里斯·埃德蒙茲(Chris Edmonds)。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Warren.

    現在我將電話轉給華倫。

  • Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

    Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Katia. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'll begin on slide 4 with a summary of our record 2024 results. Full year adjusted earnings per share totaled $6.07, an increase of 8% year-over-year, marking the best year in our company's history. For the full year, net revenues totaled a record $9.3 billion. And pro forma for the acquisition of Black Knight increased by 6% versus last year.

    謝謝,卡蒂亞。大家早安,感謝大家今天的參與。我將從第 4 張投影片開始總結我們 2024 年創紀錄的業績。全年調整後每股收益為 6.07 美元,年增 8%,是公司歷史上最好的一年。全年淨收入達到創紀錄的 93 億美元。而對黑騎士的收購預計比去年同期增加了 6%。

  • Full year adjusted operating expenses totaled $3.8 billion, an increase of roughly 1% year-over-year on a pro forma basis. It's worth noting that in just 16 months following the close of Black Knight, we have achieved run rate expense synergies of $175 million and now expect to reach our full synergy target of $200 million by the end of 2025.

    全年調整後營業費用總計 38 億美元,以預測基礎計算年增約 1%。值得注意的是,在 Black Knight 收購完成後的短短 16 個月內,我們實現了 1.75 億美元的營運費用協同效應,預計到 2025 年底將實現 2 億美元的全部綜效目標。

  • In addition, we are also raising our Black Knight expense synergy target to $230 million. This strong performance drove record full year adjusted operating income of $5.5 billion, an increase of 10% year-over-year.

    此外,我們還將黑騎士費用協同目標提高至 2.3 億美元。強勁的表現推動全年調整後營業收入達到創紀錄的 55 億美元,年增 10%。

  • Moving to cash generation. This record operating performance contributed to full year free cash flow of $3.6 billion, of which we returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends while also reducing our leverage to under 3.3x EBITDA versus 4.3x upon the close of Black Knight in late 2023. As a result of the significant progress we have made on levered, we now expect to begin repurchasing shares in the first quarter. Recall that we still expect and are on track to achieve leverage levels of approximately 3x EBITDA. And we will balance share repurchases with continued deleveraging until we reach this target, which we expect will occur later this year.

    轉向現金產生。創紀錄的營運表現為全年貢獻了 36 億美元的自由現金流,其中我們透過股息向股東返還了 10 億美元,同時也將我們的槓桿率從 2023 年底 Black Knight 收盤時的 4.3 倍降至 EBITDA 的 3.3 倍以下。由於我們在槓桿方面取得了重大進展,我們現在預計將在第一季開始回購股票。回想一下,我們仍然預計並且有望實現約 3 倍 EBITDA 的槓桿水準。我們將在股票回購和持續去槓桿之間取得平衡,直到實現這一目標,我們預計這將在今年稍後實現。

  • Moving to slide 5, I'll discuss our fourth-quarter performance. Fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share totaled $1.52, up 14% versus last year. Fourth quarter net revenues of $2.3 billion increased 5% year-over-year, driven by transaction revenues of $1.1 billion and recurring revenues of $1.2 billion. Fourth quarter adjusted operating expenses totaled $973 million, $4 million below the low end of our guidance range driven by reduced marketing and legal spend as well as lower customer acquisition costs at the NYSE.

    接下來是第 5 張投影片,我將討論我們第四季的表現。第四季調整後每股收益總計 1.52 美元,較去年同期成長 14%。第四季淨收入為 23 億美元,年增 5%,這得益於 11 億美元的交易收入和 12 億美元的經常性收入。第四季調整後的營業費用總計 9.73 億美元,比我們的預期範圍低 400 萬美元,原因是行銷和法律支出減少,以及紐約證券交易所的客戶獲取成本降低。

  • Now let's move to slide 6, where I'll provide an overview of the performance of our Exchange segment. Fourth quarter net revenues totaled $1.2 billion, up 9% year-over-year. Transaction revenues of $883 million were up 13%, in part driven by record revenues across interest rates in our global energy business, which grew 38% and 16% year-over-year, respectively.

    現在讓我們轉到第 6 張投影片,在這裡我將概述我們的 Exchange 部門的表現。第四季淨營收為12億美元,年增9%。交易收入為 8.83 億美元,成長 13%,部分原因是我們全球能源業務的利率收入創下歷史新高,分別比去年同期成長了 38% 和 16%。

  • Revenues within our global oil complex increased 11% year-over-year, while natural gas and environmental products, which represent nearly half of our energy revenues, increased by 22% in the quarter and were up 31% for the full year.

    我們的全球石油業務收入年增 11%,而占我們能源收入近一半的天然氣和環境產品收入在本季度增長了 22%,全年增長了 31%。

  • In addition, 2025 is off to a strong start with January volumes increasing 21% year-over-year and total open interest up 11% year-over-year, including 13% growth in global energy and 17% growth in our interest rate business.

    此外,2025 年開局強勁,1 月交易量年增 21%,總未平倉合約年增 11%,其中全球能源成長 13%,利率業務成長 17%。

  • Recurring revenues, which include our exchange data services and our NYSE listings business, totaled $353 million. The sequential decline in exchange data services was largely driven by a onetime full year true-up to our tape revenues at the NYSE, which we do not anticipate will repeat in 2025. As a result, we expect that exchange data and connectivity services revenues will rebound to $240 million to $245 million range in the first quarter.

    經常性收入(包括我們的交易所數據服務和紐約證券交易所上市業務)總計 3.53 億美元。交易所數據服務的連續下滑主要是由於紐約證券交易所磁帶收入的一次性全年調整,我們預計 2025 年不會再發生這種情況。因此,我們預計第一季交換數據和連接服務收入將反彈至 2.4 億美元至 2.45 億美元之間。

  • In our listings business, while less than half of global IPOs met the standards to list on our exchange in 2024, the NYSE helped to raise $17 billion in new proceeds, welcoming 53 new operating companies, including 7 of the top 10 IPOs and 9 of the top 10 best performing IPOs.

    在我們的上市業務中,雖然全球不到一半的IPO符合2024年在我們交易所上市的標準,但紐約證券交易所幫助籌集了170億美元的新資金,迎來了53家新運營公司,其中包括前10大IPO中的7家和表現最佳的10大IPO中的9家。

  • Looking to 2025, we expect that recurring revenues in our Exchange segment will grow in the low single-digit range, largely driven by continued growth in our futures data services.

    展望 2025 年,我們預期交易所部門的經常性收入將以低個位數成長,這主要得益於期貨數據服務的持續成長。

  • Turning now to slide 7, I'll discuss our Fixed Income & Data Services segment. Fourth quarter revenues totaled $579 million, including transaction revenues of $108 million. Within ICE Bonds, lower tax loss harvesting activity relative to 2023 within our mini business offset growth in institutional corporates, while strong CDS clearing activity was offset by lower levels of member interest following 2 Fed cuts towards the end of 2024.

    現在轉到第 7 張投影片,我將討論我們的固定收益和資料服務部分。第四季總營收為 5.79 億美元,其中交易收入為 1.08 億美元。在 ICE 債券中,我們的小型業務中相對於 2023 年的稅收損失收穫活動減少抵消了機構企業的增長,而強勁的 CDS 清算活動被 2024 年底美聯儲兩次降息後會員利息水平下降所抵消。

  • Recurring revenues totaled a record $471 million and grew by 5% year-over-year. In our fixed income data and analytics business, record fourth quarter revenues of $301 million increased by 5% driven by growth in pricing and reference data and another quarter of double-digit growth in our index business.

    經常性收入總計達到創紀錄的 4.71 億美元,年增 5%。在我們的固定收益數據和分析業務中,第四季度收入創紀錄地達到 3.01 億美元,增長 5%,這得益於定價和參考資料的增長以及指數業務又一個季度的兩位數增長。

  • Other data and network services revenues also increased by 5% in the fourth quarter driven by continued growth for both ICE Global Network and our consolidated feeds offering as well as continued strength in our desktop solutions.

    其他數據和網路服務收入在第四季度也成長了 5%,這得益於 ICE 全球網路和我們的綜合資訊流服務的持續成長以及我們桌面解決方案的持續強勁成長。

  • Looking to 2025 and supported by an ASV that exits the fourth quarter up 5% year-over-year, we anticipate mid-single-digit growth in our Fixed Income & Data Services recurring revenues.

    展望 2025 年,在第四季度 ASV 年比成長 5% 的支持下,我們預計固定收益和數據服務經常性收入將實現中等個位數成長。

  • Please flip to slide 8, where I'll discuss the results in our Mortgage Technology segment. Fourth quarter Mortgage Technology revenues totaled $508 million, slightly above the high end of our guidance range. Recurring revenues totaled $391 million. While down on a year-over-year basis, revenues improved relative to the third quarter, driven by growth in both our servicing solutions and our data and analytics business.

    請翻到第 8 張投影片,我將在其中討論我們的抵押貸款技術部分的結果。第四季抵押貸款技術收入總計 5.08 億美元,略高於我們預期範圍的高端。經常性收入總計 3.91 億美元。儘管與去年同期相比收入有所下降,但與第三季相比有所改善,這得益於我們的服務解決方案以及數據和分析業務的成長。

  • Similar to prior quarters, while the majority of Encompass customers renewed at higher minimums, the improvement in recurring revenues was somewhat offset by customers that reduced minimums at renewal.

    與前幾季類似,雖然大多數 Encompass 客戶以更高的最低限額續約,但經常性收入的改善在一定程度上被續約時降低最低限額的客戶所抵消。

  • Transaction revenues totaled $117 million, up 12% on a year-over-year basis, but, as anticipated, were down slightly relative to the third quarter due to seasonality in the purchase market, a dynamic that typically impacts both the fourth and first quarter of each year.

    交易收入總計 1.17 億美元,比去年同期成長 12%,但如預期的那樣,由於購買市場的季節性影響,交易收入較第三季略有下降,這種動態通常會影響每年的第四季和第一季。

  • It's worth noting that according to ICE Mortgage Technology, we continue to see signs of market stabilization as housing inventory continues to rise, up 20% in 2024, and annual home price appreciation slowed to the lowest levels since 2011.

    值得注意的是,根據ICE抵押貸款技術公司的數據,我們持續看到市場穩定的跡象,因為房屋庫存持續上升,到2024年將成長20%,年度房價升值幅度放緩至2011年以來的最低水準。

  • Moving to guidance for 2025. We anticipate that total IMT revenues will grow in the low single-digit to mid-single-digit range. The high end of the range is underpinned in part by low teens growth in industry origination volumes, which is similar to expectations set by the MBA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, where the low end of the range assumes a more conservative origination backdrop that is flat with 2024 levels. At both ends of the range, we anticipate growth in recurring revenues due in part to a portion of the $55 million in total revenue synergies we have achieved beginning to come online.

    轉向2025年指導。我們預計 IMT 總收入將以低個位數至中個位數的速度成長。該範圍的高端部分受到行業發起量低十幾個百分點增長的支撐,這與 MBA、房利美和房地美設定的預期相似,而該範圍的低端假設發起背景更為保守,與 2024 年的水平持平。在這兩個範圍中,我們預期經常性收入都會成長,部分原因是我們已實現的 5,500 萬美元總收入綜效中的一部分開始發揮作用。

  • Please flip to slide 9, r t r where I'll provide some additional full year guidance. We expect 2025 adjusted operating expenses to be between $3.915 billion and $3.965 billion, an increase of roughly 3% year-over-year at the midpoint. Similar to prior years, we expect to invest in our people, our technology and growth initiatives across our business, with these investments somewhat offset by synergies related to Black Knight.

    請翻到幻燈片 9,r t r,我將在這裡提供一些額外的全年指導。我們預計 2025 年調整後的營業費用將在 39.15 億美元至 39.65 億美元之間,中位數年增約 3%。與前幾年類似,我們預計將投資於我們的人才、技術和整個業務的成長計劃,這些投資將在一定程度上被與 Black Knight 相關的協同效應所抵消。

  • Moving below the line. Similar to last year, we currently expect the full year tax rate will be in the range of 24% to 26%. And finally, we expect full year CapEx to be in the range of $730 million to $780 million. As is typical in the case in the years following an acquisition, CapEx is expected to be slightly elevated as we invest and reposition the acquired asset. In addition to these IMT-related investments, we will also make revenue-related investments in our datacentre footprint to meet growing customer demand for additional capacity.

    移至線下。與去年類似,我們目前預計全年稅率將在 24% 至 26% 之間。最後,我們預計全年資本支出將在 7.3 億美元至 7.8 億美元之間。正如收購後幾年的典型情況一樣,隨著我們投資和重新定位所收購的資產,資本支出預計會略有增加。除了這些與 IMT 相關的投資之外,我們還將對資料中心進行與收入相關的投資,以滿足客戶對額外容量日益增長的需求。

  • In summary, we delivered a very strong finish to another record year of revenues, operating income and free cash flow and adjusted earnings per share. We invested across our business while also significantly reducing our leverage. As we kick off 2025, we're focused on, once again, delivering growth and creating shareholder value.

    總而言之,我們以非常強勁的成績結束了另一個創紀錄的一年,收入、營業收入、自由現金流和調整後每股收益均創下了歷史新高。我們對整個業務進行了投資,同時也大幅降低了槓桿率。隨著 2025 年的到來,我們再次專注於實現成長並創造股東價值。

  • I'll be happy to take your questions during Q&A., but for now, I'll hand it over to Ben.

    我很樂意在問答環節回答您的問題,但現在,我將把主題交給 Ben。

  • Benjamin Jackson - President

    Benjamin Jackson - President

  • Thank you, Warren, and thank you all for joining us this morning.

    謝謝你,沃倫,也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。

  • Please turn to slide 10. Across our futures markets, we've worked for over two decades to build out the scope and depth of our multi-asset and multi-geography offering to allow for both flexibility and precision trading from wherever in the world customers choose to trade on ICE. As a result, a record of over 2 billion futures and options contracts traded on ICE in 2024, marking the highest volume year in ICE's history, including a record $1.2 billion commodity contracts and a record $753 million interest rate contracts. This strong performance contributed to the 12th consecutive year of record futures revenue in 2024, which grew 20%, including 15% in the fourth quarter.

    請翻到第 10 張投影片。在我們的期貨市場中,我們花了二十多年的時間致力於拓展多元資產和多地域產品的範圍和深度,以便客戶無論在世界何處選擇在 ICE 上進行交易,都能實現靈活性和精確性交易。結果,2024年ICE交易的期貨和選擇權合約數量創下了超過20億份的記錄,成為ICE史上交易量最高的一年,其中包括創紀錄的12億美元大宗商品合約和創紀錄的7.53億美元的利率合約。這一強勁表現促成了2024年期貨收入連續第12年創下歷史新高,成長了20%,其中第四季成長了15%。

  • Across our energy markets, we saw the importance of investing in a diverse and globally interconnected energy platform that better serves the needs of an evolving and growing commercial customer base. By working closely with our customers, we have built and continued to enhance our leading global energy network that delivers comprehensive risk management solutions, provides capital efficiencies and is positioned to grow alongside the continued evolution of global markets. All this while providing the critical price transparency across the energy spectrum needed to navigate the energy transition and to meet forward-looking demand.

    在我們的能源市場中,我們看到了投資多元化、全球互聯的能源平台的重要性,該平台可以更好地滿足不斷發展和成長的商業客戶群的需求。透過與客戶密切合作,我們建立並不斷加強我們領先的全球能源網絡,提供全面的風險管理解決方案,提供資本效率,並隨著全球市場的不斷發展而成長。所有這些都為整個能源領域提供了關鍵的價格透明度,以引導能源轉型並滿足前瞻性需求。

  • Over the last five years, revenue growth across our energy markets has averaged 14% growth annually, with 2024 revenues reaching a record $1.9 billion, up 25% year-over-year. This strong performance was driven by record energy volumes and is a testament to customers' continued confidence in ICE as the global energy hedging venue of choice.

    在過去五年中,我們能源市場的營收成長率平均為每年 14%,2024 年的營收將達到創紀錄的 19 億美元,年增 25%。這一強勁表現是由創紀錄的能源交易量推動的,證明了客戶對 ICE 作為首選全球能源對沖場所的持續信心。

  • In our oil business, we offer key benchmark contracts such as Brent. As the global benchmark for crude oil, Brent prices roughly three-fourth of the world's internationally traded crude and serves as the cornerstone of our global oil complex which today includes over 800 locational and product spreads relied on by commercial customers. This innovation and evolution have enabled us to continue serving our global customers and to drive growth across the business, delivering record oil revenues in 2024, which grew 21% year-over-year. This strong performance was underpinned by the highest volume year for total oil contracts traded on ICE, including records across our Brent and gas oil benchmark contracts.

    在我們的石油業務中,我們提供布蘭特原油等主要基準合約。作為全球原油基準,布蘭特原油約佔全球國際原油交易量的四分之三,是我們全球石油綜合體的基石,目前該綜合體包括商業客戶所依賴的 800 多個地點和產品。這種創新和發展使我們能夠繼續服務全球客戶並推動整個業務的成長,在 2024 年實現了創紀錄的石油收入,年增 21%。這一強勁表現得益於 ICE 上石油合約總交易量創下歷史新高,其中包括布蘭特原油和柴油基準合約的成交量創下歷史新高。

  • In addition, as trade dynamics evolve and become increasingly complex, customers not only are seeking liquidity in the major global benchmarks, but also in products that provide greater hedging precision. This dynamic is illustrated by record trading activity in our other crude and refined products in 2024 with volumes up 34% year-over-year, including records across our Platts Dubai and Murban contracts.

    此外,隨著貿易動態不斷發展且日益複雜,客戶不僅尋求主要全球基準的流動性,也尋求提供更高對沖精度的產品。這項動態表現在我們 2024 年其他原油和成品油交易活動的創紀錄,交易量較去年同期成長 34%,其中包括普氏杜拜和穆爾班合約的創紀錄交易量。

  • Our global oil offering sits alongside our global natural gas markets where the globalization of this commodity is underpinned by the rise of liquefied natural gas or LNG. The ongoing liberalization of the LNG market has put more natural gas in motion over longer distances with a greater number of touch points along the value chain from production to consumption.

    我們的全球石油供應與全球天然氣市場並存,液化天然氣(LNG)的興起支撐了石油的全球化。液化天然氣市場持續的自由化使得更多的天然氣能夠運輸到更長的距離,並且從生產到消費的價值鏈中涉及更多的接觸點。

  • At the same time, demand for natural gas continues to grow and likely sustainably for the foreseeable future. Trends that support this are the undeniable secular growth in overall energy demand, increased demand for datacentres and the associated power that goes with it and the move to gas as a cleaner fossil fuel source versus coal.

    同時,對天然氣的需求持續成長,並且在可預見的未來可能保持永續。支持這一趨勢的是整體能源需求不可否認的長期成長、資料中心及相關電力的需求增加,以及從煤炭轉向使用天然氣作為更清潔的化石燃料來源。

  • In essence, this evolution creates opportunities for new trading relationships to develop and adds an extra layer of complexity that fuels adoption to our global gas product suite. This was illustrated by record market participation in our global gas complex in 2024, which has increased nearly 30% since 2019.

    實質上,這種演變為新的貿易關係的發展創造了機會,並增加了額外的複雜性,從而推動了我們全球天然氣產品套件的採用。2024 年,我們全球天然氣綜合體的市場參與度創下了歷史新高,自 2019 年以來成長了近 30%。

  • As supply chains evolve and globalize, the quality of our expansive range of benchmarks is evident, with our natural gas business delivering another year of record revenues in 2024, increasing 30% versus last year. This strong performance was led by record revenues in our Title Transfer Facility benchmark, or TTF, which we have positioned as the Brent of natural gas and plays a critical role in providing global natural gas price signals. As a result, TTF continues to be relied upon by an increasing number of market participants with market participation and volumes both setting new highs in 2024 and each growing double digits on average over the past five years.

    隨著供應鏈的發展和全球化,我們廣泛的基準的品質顯而易見,我們的天然氣業務在 2024 年再次創下創紀錄的收入,比去年增長 30%。這一強勁表現得益於我們的產權轉讓工具基準(TTF)的創紀錄收入,我們將其定位為天然氣的布蘭特原油,在提供全球天然氣價格訊號方面發揮關鍵作用。因此,TTF 繼續受到越來越多的市場參與者的依賴,市場參與度和交易量在 2024 年均創下新高,並且在過去五年中平均增長了兩位數。

  • In Asia, where coal still accounts for nearly half of the region's energy supply, our Japan-Korea Marker, JKM, has seen market participation grow double digits on average over the past five years, reaching a record in 2024 and increasing 27% year-over-year. As a cleaner alternative to coal, natural gas has accelerated the global risk management needs related to the commodity and caused the markets across North America, Europe and Asia to become increasingly interconnected. This dynamic was once again highlighted by JKM volume execution trends in the fourth quarter with two-third of JKM volume executed via the JKM-TTF spread.

    在亞洲,煤炭仍佔該地區能源供應的近一半,我們的日韓市場JKM在過去五年中市場參與度平均增長了兩位數,在2024年達到創紀錄的水平,同比增長27%。作為煤炭的更清潔替代品,天然氣加速了與該商品相關的全球風險管理需求,並使得北美、歐洲和亞洲的市場更加相互連結。第四季 JKM 交易量執行趨勢再次凸顯了這一動態,其中三分之二的 JKM 交易量是透過 JKM-TTF 價差執行的。

  • In North America, as market participants continue to gravitate towards ICE's Henry Hub contracts for the liquidity ICE offers in longer-dated tenors, along with the linkage to our exclusive regional basis markets, volumes in our complex grew 30% year-over-year, including record volumes across our basis markets, which spans 70 hubs across North America, allowing customers to manage regional supply and demand dynamics.

    在北美,由於市場參與者繼續傾向於ICE的亨利樞紐合約,以獲得ICE在較長期期限內提供的流動性,以及與我們獨家區域基礎市場的聯繫,我們綜合體的交易量同比增長了30%,包括我們基礎市場的創紀錄交易量,這些市場遍布北美的70個樞紐,使客戶能夠管理區域供需動態。

  • Trading alongside our global oil, gas and power markets, our leading environmental markets, which were first launched nearly two decades ago, provide customers price transparency across the energy spectrum that is critical in navigating the clean energy transition. Here we've seen market participation grow double digits on average over the past five years, including record participation in 2024, up 13% versus prior year.

    我們領先的環境市場於近二十年前首次推出,與我們的全球石油、天然氣和電力市場一起,為客戶提供整個能源領域的價格透明度,這對於引導清潔能源轉型至關重要。我們看到,過去五年來,市場參與度平均成長了兩位數,其中 2024 年的參與度創下了歷史新高,比前一年增長了 13%。

  • At the same time, record volumes across the complex were up 39% year-over-year, led by another record-setting year in our North American environmental markets. These record volumes represent the equivalent of over $1 trillion in notional value for the fourth consecutive year and contributed to a 40% increase in environmental revenues in 2024 versus the prior year.

    同時,整個綜合體的銷量年增39%,其中北美環境市場再創紀錄。這些創紀錄的交易量連續第四年相當於名義價值超過 1 兆美元,並推動 2024 年的環境收入比前一年增加 40%。

  • In summary, the evolution of our energy markets is one example of how we continuously invest and develop customer-driven solutions across asset classes to drive value creation. Our record performance is a product of these investments, some that we've made more than a decade ago.

    總而言之,我們能源市場的演變就是我們如何持續投資和開發跨資產類別的客戶驅動解決方案以推動價值創造的一個例子。我們創紀錄的表現就是這些投資的產物,其中一些投資是我們十多年前進行的投資。

  • Turning now to our Fixed Income & Data Services business on slide 11. Driven by multiyear investments in both technology and data, our comprehensive fixed income data platform continues to deliver compounding revenue growth.

    現在轉到第 11 張投影片上的固定收益和資料服務業務。在多年對科技和數據的投資推動下,我們全面的固定收益數據平台持續實現複合收入成長。

  • Our position as a leading provider of price and reference data has served as the foundation for many innovative solutions such as our rapidly-growing index franchise, a business we built through both organic and inorganic investments, including our acquisitions of IDC and the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Index platform.

    我們作為價格和參考資料領先供應商的地位為許多創新解決方案奠定了基礎,例如我們快速增長的指數特許經營權,這是我們透過有機和無機投資建立起來的業務,包括我們對 IDC 和美銀美林指數平台的收購。

  • In 2024, revenues in our index business increased double digits year-over-year. A key driver was growth in ETF assets under management benchmarked to ICE indices, up 13% year-over-year. Collectively, the strong performance across our PRD and index business drove 5% growth in our fixed income data and analytics business in 2024.

    2024年,我們的指數業務收入較去年同期成長兩位數。一個關鍵驅動因素是以 ICE 指數為基準的 ETF 管理資產成長,年增 13%。總體而言,我們 PRD 和指數業務的強勁表現推動我們的固定收益數據和分析業務在 2024 年成長 5%。

  • In addition, we continue to see returns on past investments made to enhance content and functionality across our other data and network services business, which grew 5% in 2024 versus prior year. As an example, within our consolidated fees business, investments we've made to elevate and enhance our offering, including commodity and energy data, now available on our feeds, has led to accelerating adoption by large financial institutions, including displacements of larger multi-asset class incumbents.

    此外,我們繼續看到過去為增強其他數據和網路服務業務的內容和功能而進行的投資的回報,該業務在 2024 年比前一年增長了 5%。舉例來說,在我們的綜合費用業務中,我們為提升和增強我們的服務而進行的投資,包括現在可在我們的服務端獲取的商品和能源數據,已經加速了大型金融機構的採用,包括取代了更大型的多資產類別的現有機構。

  • This was a key contributor to the high single-digit revenue growth in this area in 2024. With content from over 600 data sources as firms seek more high-quality data from a range of different sources in a cost-effective manner and access to new unique content, our competitive and comprehensive offering stands to benefit.

    這是2024年該地區收入實現高個位數成長的關鍵因素。隨著企業以經濟高效的方式從各種不同來源尋求更多高品質數據並獲取新的獨特內容,我們擁有來自 600 多個數據來源的內容,我們具有競爭力且全面的產品將從中受益。

  • Finally, as we move forward, we remain focused on continuing to leverage our deep expertise in gathering and cleansing unstructured data to develop actionable insights and add transparency not only to the fixed income markets but across asset classes. For example, in 2024, we announced the integration of our property and loan level mortgage datasets with our property level climate risk metrics, covering more than 100 million US homes. This solution improves transparency and facilitates risk management throughout the housing finance and property insurance sector, allowing customers to apply ICE's climate metrics to individual loans, properties and entire portfolios, improving the visibility to the inherent climate risks in each.

    最後,隨著我們不斷前進,我們將繼續專注於繼續利用我們在收集和清理非結構化資料方面的深厚專業知識來獲得可行的見解,並不僅僅為固定收益市場而且為所有資產類別增加透明度。例如,2024 年,我們宣布將我們的房地產和貸款層面抵押貸款資料集與我們的房地產層面氣候風險指標整合在一起,涵蓋超過 1 億戶美國家庭。該解決方案提高了透明度並促進了整個住房金融和財產保險領域的風險管理,允許客戶將 ICE 的氣候指標應用於個人貸款、財產和整個投資組合,從而提高對每個領域固有氣候風險的可見度。

  • We also went live with our MBS Mortality Indicator, which leverages datasets across ICE Data Services and ICE Mortgage Technology to produce daily trading signals for more than 900,000 agency and residential MBS pools.

    我們也推出了 MBS 死亡率指標,利用 ​​ICE 數據服務和 ICE 抵押貸款技術的數據集為超過 90 萬個機構和住宅 MBS 池產生每日交易訊號。

  • Shifting now to our mortgage business on slide 12. Like our exchanges and fixed income businesses, ICE Mortgage Technology's products and network excel by offering a value proposition that enables efficiency gains for our customers. We target asset classes that are in the early stages of an analog-to-digital conversion because we believe these asset classes will benefit from greater automation and create strong network effects.

    現在轉到第 12 張投影片上的抵押貸款業務。與我們的交易所和固定收益業務一樣,ICE 抵押貸款技術公司的產品和網路透過提供能夠幫助客戶提高效率的價值主張而脫穎而出。我們的目標資產類別處於類比到數位轉換的早期階段,因為我們相信這些資產類別將受益於更高程度的自動化並產生強大的網路效應。

  • This is no different in mortgage where we've constructed an unparalleled network that seamlessly connects key industry stakeholders within a single end-to-end digital ecosystem. That kind of connectivity in network is a hallmark of the ICE business model and one that, combined with our leading solutions, gives us confidence that we can grow a business that, at $2 billion today, is only a fraction of the $14 billion addressable market that's in the early days of an analog-to-digital conversion.

    在抵押貸款領域也一樣,我們已經建立了一個無與倫比的網絡,可以在單一端到端的數位生態系統中無縫連接關鍵產業利害關係人。這種網路連接是 ICE 商業模式的標誌,再加上我們領先的解決方案,讓我們有信心發展這樣的業務,儘管目前的規模為 20 億美元,但這只是模擬到數位轉換初期 140 億美元潛在市場的一小部分。

  • In 2024, we continued to make progress on the successful integration of Black Knight and executing on our strategy of relieving the pain points and inefficiencies across the mortgage workflow. Starting with Encompass, we closed on 38 client wins in the fourth quarter as customers focused on modernizing their infrastructure and our workflow efficiencies. And to kick off the year, we're pleased to announce that Flagstar and Howard Hanna have signed on as Encompass clients.

    2024 年,我們繼續在成功整合 Black Knight 和執行緩解抵押貸款工作流程中的痛點和低效率的策略方面取得進展。從 Encompass 開始,我們在第四季度贏得了 38 個客戶,因為客戶專注於實現其基礎設施的現代化和工作流程的效率。在新的一年伊始,我們很高興地宣布 Flagstar 和 Howard Hanna 已簽約成為 Encompass 客戶。

  • In parallel, we delivered on several enhancements to Encompass during last year, including the launch of multichannel support for web-based loan manufacturing, and are pleased to see clients are adopting this innovation. We also unified our industry-leading marketing and sales automation solutions into one complete customer acquisition and retention suite.

    同時,我們在去年對 Encompass 進行了多項改進,包括推出基於網路的貸款製造多通路支持,我們很高興看到客戶正在採用這項創新。我們也將業界領先的行銷和銷售自動化解決方案統一為一套完整的客戶獲取和保留套件。

  • We also added a borrower-facing mobile application to support lenders on our platform. Then we embedded these into Encompass workflows directly, enabling our lender clients to efficiently identify customers to target with the right products at the right time and manage their leads through to closing. This helped to drive over 200 cross-sells of our customer acquisition suite into Encompass customers in 2024.

    我們還添加了借款人的行動應用程式來支援我們平台上的貸款人。然後,我們將它們直接嵌入到 Encompass 工作流程中,使我們的貸方客戶能夠有效地識別客戶,以便在正確的時間向目標客戶推出正確的產品,並管理他們的潛在客戶直至交易完成。這有助於在 2024 年推動我們的客戶獲取套件向 Encompass 客戶進行超過 200 次交叉銷售。

  • Along the same lines, we integrated datasets from Black Knight into Encompass, including property tax, flood and closing fees, providing customers with more choice of service providers on our platform, and are pleased by the early traction across these offerings, executing on over 400 data cross-sells to Encompass clients in 2024.

    同樣,我們將 Black Knight 的資料集整合到 Encompass 中,包括財產稅、洪水和結算費,為客戶提供我們平台上的更多服務提供者選擇,並對這些產品的早期發展感到滿意,並在 2024 年向 Encompass 客戶執行了超過 400 次資料交叉銷售。

  • Along the same lines and consistent with our approach of investing ahead of secular growth, throughout 2024, we dramatically enhanced our ICE Product and Pricing Engine, or PPE, and look forward to showcasing this enhanced offering at our upcoming ICE Experience event, an annual gathering of thousands of customers where each year we launch our new and enhanced innovations for our clients.

    秉承同樣的思路,並按照我們在長期增長之前進行投資的方法,在整個 2024 年,我們大幅增強了我們的 ICE 產品和定價引擎 (PPE),並期待在我們即將舉行的 ICE 體驗活動上展示這一增強產品,該活動每年都會聚集數千名客戶,我們每年都會為客戶推出新的和增強的創新產品。

  • For MSP, roughly 80% of new client wins during the year were cross-sells to Encompass clients. We also continued to make significant strides in enhancing functionality designed to elevate customer interactions and experiences, including the rollout of our MSP digital experience or MSP DX.

    對於 MSP 而言,今年約 80% 的新客戶都是透過向 Encompass 客戶進行交叉銷售而獲得的。我們也持續在增強旨在提升客戶互動和體驗的功能方面取得重大進展,包括推出我們的 MSP 數位體驗或 MSP DX。

  • At the same time, we enhanced and integrated our loss mitigation, customer service and collections capabilities. These embedded tools within MSP not only streamline operations, but help clients prepare for the eventual increase in defaults and foreclosures.

    同時,我們增強並整合了我們的損失緩解、客戶服務和收款能力。MSP 中嵌入的這些工具不僅簡化了操作,而且還可以幫助客戶為最終增加的違約和止贖做好準備。

  • Our customer service enhancements improved the customer experience. And as an example, our call prediction functionality uses artificial intelligence to analyse the account and provide a prediction of why the customer is calling, allowing the customer service agent to reach a resolution in decreased timeframe and reduce friction to the homeowner.

    我們加強了客戶服務,並改善了客戶體驗。舉例來說,我們的呼叫預測功能使用人工智慧來分析帳戶並預測客戶呼叫的原因,使客戶服務代理能夠在更短的時間內找到解決方案並減少房主的摩擦。

  • Lastly, our Actionable Intelligence Platform, or AIP, which is in the process of being rebranded as ICE Business Intelligence, provides robust analytical and reporting capabilities based on configurable suites for originators and servicers. Originators will be able to view dashboards to manage all aspects of production, including marketing, sales, pipelines and closing through all channels, including retail, wholesale and correspondent. Servicers will have sophisticated risk management, compliance and capacity planning tools that will help them better manage portfolios and coordinate activities across the enterprise.

    最後,我們的可操作情報平台(AIP)正在更名為 ICE 商業智能,它基於可配置套件為發起人和服務商提供強大的分析和報告功能。發起人將能夠查看儀表板來管理生產的各個方面,包括透過零售、批發和代理商等所有管道進行的行銷、銷售、通路和結算。服務商將擁有先進的風險管理、合規和容量規劃工具,幫助他們更好地管理投資組合並協調整個企業的活動。

  • By delivering timely and actionable insights, our Business Intelligence platform will help enable financial institutions to stay agile and competitive in a continually evolving market, all while seamlessly integrating with existing systems for ease of adoption. In that regard, we are pleased to announce that we signed a top five depository onto this service in 2024, and we continue to see other clients engaged in this solution suite based on the efficiencies and revenue opportunities it can help uncover.

    透過提供及時且可操作的見解,我們的商業智慧平台將幫助金融機構在不斷發展的市場中保持敏捷和競爭力,同時與現有系統無縫整合以便於採用。在這方面,我們很高興地宣布,我們已於 2024 年與前五名存管機構簽署了這項服務,並且我們將繼續看到其他客戶參與該解決方案套件,因為它可以幫助發現效率和收入機會。

  • In summary, we are pleased to see the value of our comprehensive platform is resonating in the marketplace, and we remain optimistic about the long-term opportunity to accelerate the analog to digital conversion.

    總而言之,我們很高興看到我們綜合平台的價值在市場上引起共鳴,並且我們對加速類比到數位轉換的長期機會仍然持樂觀態度。

  • With that, I'll hand it over to Jeff.

    說完這些,我就把它交給傑夫。

  • Jeffrey Sprecher - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Sprecher - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Ben, and thank you all for joining us this morning.

    謝謝你,本,也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。

  • Please turn to slide 13. Over two decades ago, we launched Intercontinental Exchange, a name we chose to reflect our vision of better serving global markets, with a mission to drive transparency and create workflow efficiencies for our customers.

    請翻到第 13 張投影片。二十多年前,我們成立了洲際交易所,這個名字反映了我們更好地服務全球市場的願景,我們的使命是提高透明度並為我們的客戶創造工作流程效率。

  • The pursuit and execution of this vision first led us to energy markets, where at the time of our 2005 IPO on the New York Stock Exchange, we were purely an energy exchange, offering only a handful of products and on track to generate what would ultimately be $156 million in total revenue.

    對這一願景的追求和執行首先將我們帶入了能源市場,2005 年我們在紐約證券交易所首次公開募股 (IPO) 時,我們純粹是一個能源交易所,只提供少量產品,並有望最終實現 1.56 億美元的總收入。

  • Our goal then, as it remains today, was to build a platform that operated on a global scale and which had the asset class breadth to enable us to quickly and efficiently chase growth opportunities as they emerge around the world. In the years since, our focus on leading technology, customer-driven product innovation and operating efficiency has remained core to our strategy.

    我們當時的目標,正如現在一樣,是建立一個在全球範圍內運作的平台,該平台具有廣泛的資產類別,使我們能夠快速有效地追逐世界各地出現的成長機會。在這之後的幾年裡,我們對領先技術、客戶驅動的產品創新和營運效率的關注始終是我們策略的核心。

  • We've built new technology from scratch, acquired old technology and refurbished it, and innovated all along the way, developing countless new products and content that seamlessly flow through a global distribution platform, enabling us to build on the success of our core businesses while looking ahead to new opportunities.

    我們從零開始打造新技術,收購舊技術並加以改造,一路創新,開發出無數新產品和內容,並透過全球分銷平台無縫流通,使我們能夠在核心業務成功的基礎上再接再厲,同時展望新的機遇。

  • In many ways, this is how we built what I often refer to as our all-weather business model, one that drives growth on top of growth through an array of economic, political and regulatory environments, with 2024 marking our 19th consecutive year of record revenues, increasing 16% year-over-year to $9 billion. Through deliberate organic and inorganic investments that we've made, some more than a decade ago and others in more recent years, such as our Midland HOU contract, our leading global energy network today spans more than 2,000 contracts.

    從很多方面來看,這就是我們建立我經常提到的全天候商業模式的方式,該模式透過一系列經濟、政治和監管環境推動不斷增長,2024 年將是我們連續第 19 年創下收入記錄,同比增長 16%,達到 90 億美元。透過我們十多年前和近年來進行的有意識的有機和無機投資,例如我們的米德蘭 HOU 合同,我們領先的全球能源網絡如今已涵蓋 2,000 多個合約。

  • It's a business that, as you've just heard, continues to flourish more than 20 years later, with revenues tripling since 2010 to a record $1.9 billion in 2024, an increase of 25% year-over-year on top of 28% prior annual growth.

    正如大家剛才所聽到的,這項業務在 20 多年後仍在蓬勃發展,其收入自 2010 年以來增長了兩倍,到 2024 年將達到創紀錄的 19 億美元,在之前 28% 的年增長率基礎上,同比增長 25%。

  • Building on our energy business as the foundation, we targeted an interrelated collection of markets to create a global risk management powerhouse that helps our customers manage risks associated to both acts of nature, such as issues that affect commodity supply chain flows, and acts of man, such as central bank and cross-border trade policies.

    以我們的能源業務為基礎,我們瞄準相互關聯的市場集合,打造一個全球風險管理巨頭,幫助我們的客戶管理與自然因素(例如影響商品供應鏈流動的問題)和人為因素(例如中央銀行和跨境貿易政策)相關的風險。

  • In 2013, through the acquisition of the London International Financial Futures Exchange, known as LIFFE, and subsequently combining it with our own local commodity exchange and clearing house, we broadened our offering to manage the risk resulting from both types of forces. And in 2024, our commodity markets as well as our interest rate derivatives complex all traded at record levels, highlighting the key role that these contracts continue to play for global market participants.

    2013 年,透過收購倫敦國際金融期貨交易所 (LIFFE),並將其與我們自己的當地商品交易所和清算所合併,我們擴大了服務範圍,以管理這兩種力量所造成的風險。2024 年,我們的商品市場以及利率衍生性商品市場的交易量均達到了創紀錄的水平,凸顯了這些合約對全球市場參與者持續發揮的關鍵作用。

  • Across our interest rate contract portfolio, diverging rate paths by central banks was a consistent theme throughout 2024, contributing to record revenues, which increased 30% versus 2023, including 38% growth in the fourth quarter. These results highlight the strength of our multicurrency European, UK and Swiss interest rate markets, including the key benchmarks Euribor, SONYA, SARON and Gilts.

    在我們的利率合約組合中,各國央行的利率路徑分化是整個 2024 年的一致主題,帶來了創紀錄的收入,較 2023 年增長了 30%,其中第四季度增長了 38%。這些結果凸顯了我們的多幣種歐洲、英國和瑞士利率市場的實力,包括主要基準 Euribor、SONYA、SARON 和 Gilts。

  • In 2015, our acquisition of IDC proved to be instrumental and laid the foundation for our move into fixed income markets and the development of a comprehensive platform that has since evolved into nearly 500 unique institutional-grade data products, one that continues to deliver compounding revenue growth as these markets automate and as passive investing grows.

    2015年,我們對IDC的收購被證明具有重要意義,為我們進軍固定收益市場和開發綜合平台奠定了基礎,該平台現已發展成為近500種獨特的機構級數據產品,隨著這些市場的自動化和被動投資的增長,該平台將繼續實現複合收入增長。

  • In our index business, ETF AUM benchmarked to our indices has grown to $648 billion at the end of 2024 from less than $100 billion in 2017, a key driver of the double-digit average annual revenue growth over that timeframe.

    在我們的指數業務中,以我們的指數為基準的 ETF AUM 已從 2017 年的不到 1000 億美元增長至 2024 年底的 6480 億美元,這是該時間範圍內實現兩位數年均收入增長的主要驅動力。

  • Fixed income and its related data is an area where we continue to make strategic decisions to position ourselves for success. For example, in 2024, we announced our intention to launch a clearing service for all US treasury securities and repurchase agreements, leveraging our infrastructure and expertise in centralized clearing.

    固定收益及其相關數據是我們不斷做出策略決策以獲得成功的一個領域。例如,2024 年,我們宣布計劃利用我們在集中清算方面的基礎設施和專業知識,為所有美國國債和回購協議推出清算服務。

  • And in early January, we announced our acquisition of the American Financial Exchange, or AFX, an electronic exchange for direct lending and borrowing for American banks and financial institutions. AFX has focused on regional, midsized and community bank customers, covering many of the same customers that we serve through our Mortgage Technology network, making AFX a natural fit at ICE and complementing both our mortgage network and ICE's growing index business.

    今年 1 月初,我們宣布收購美國金融交易所(AFX),這是一家為美國銀行和金融機構提供直接借貸服務的電子交易所。AFX 專注於區域性、中型和社區銀行客戶,涵蓋了許多我們透過抵押貸款技術網路服務的相同客戶,這使得 AFX 與 ICE 自然契合,並補充了我們的抵押貸款網路和 ICE 不斷增長的指數業務。

  • Across our mortgage business, much like our strategy in other asset classes, we're leveraging our data, technology and collective expertise to bring efficiencies to the entire mortgage manufacturing workflow. And as Ben pointed out, we continue to make strides executing against this strategy, digitizing the workflow from homebuyer identification all the way through to the capital markets. In 2024, we added many new clients to the mortgage network while also deepening relationships with our long-standing customers.

    在我們的抵押貸款業務中,與我們在其他資產類別中的策略非常相似,我們利用我們的數據、技術和集體專業知識來提高整個抵押貸款製造工作流程的效率。正如本所指出的,我們將繼續大力推動這項策略的實施,實現從購屋者身分識別到資本市場的整個工作流程的數位化。2024 年,我們為抵押貸款網絡增加了許多新客戶,同時也加深了與長期客戶的關係。

  • As we look to 2025 and beyond, the new US administration has pledged to increase US energy production, which could change the supply chain dynamics of the world's energy supply, and, resultingly, the global risk that will need to be managed. We believe that energy demand growth, particularly in Asia, the power deregulation trends in Japan, increases in US energy exports and the multi-decade nonlinear energy transition, all point to the growing use of market-based commodity pricing and risk management tools.

    展望2025年及以後,美國新政府承諾提高美國能源產量,這可能會改變世界能源供應的供應鏈動態,並最終改變需要管理的全球風險。我們認為,能源需求成長(特別是亞洲的能源需求成長)、日本的電力放鬆管制趨勢、美國能源出口的成長以及數十年來的非線性能源轉型,都顯示市場化大宗商品定價和風險管理工具的使用日益增多。

  • And with new governments in the UK and EU Commission, as well as in the US, we expect novel policy decisions that will impact inflation and employment, which could drive continued demand for interest rate risk management in 2025.

    隨著英國、歐盟委員會和美國新政府的成立,我們預計新的政策決定將影響通膨和就業,從而可能推動 2025 年對利率風險管理的持續需求。

  • Also when thinking about the current robust AI investment environment, particularly in the US coupled with uncertain central bank interest rate policies and the potential demands for energy by this sector, these trends could further the need for commodity risk management while continuing to stimulate trading in equity markets.

    此外,考慮到當前強勁的人工智慧投資環境,特別是美國,再加上不確定的央行利率政策和該行業對能源的潛在需求,這些趨勢可能會進一步加劇大宗商品風險管理的需求,同時繼續刺激股票市場的交易。

  • From helping our customers navigate the long-tail evolution of commodity markets to the digitization of fixed income workflows and automating mortgage placement, it's our operating expertise, leading technology infrastructure and forward thinking that underpin the quality of the network that we operate, proving to be our competitive advantage and providing the opportunity to unlock additional growth by collaborating across customers and our own business units.

    從幫助我們的客戶應對大宗商品市場的長期演變,到固定收益工作流程的數位化和抵押貸款的自動化,我們的營運專業知識、領先的技術基礎設施和前瞻性思維支撐著我們運營的網路的質量,證明了我們的競爭優勢,並透過與客戶和我們自己的業務部門之間的合作,提供了釋放額外增長的機會。

  • We believe that we're better positioned than ever to capitalize on these secular and cyclical trends across asset classes, and we remain focused on investing and executing on the many growth opportunities that are in front of us.

    我們相信,我們比以往任何時候都更有能力利用跨資產類別的長期和周期性趨勢,並且我們仍然專注於投資和執行擺在我們面前的眾多成長機會。

  • In summary, for more than 20 years, ICE has continually evolved to meet the needs of our customers and provide value for our stockholders. In that vein, 2024 marked our 19th consecutive year of record revenues, record operating income and record adjusted earnings per share. This consistent record of growth reflects on the quality of our strategy to diversify the business and position the company at the center of some of the largest industries undergoing analog-to-digital conversions, a strategy that has created an all-weather business model that is well positioned to continue to drive growth as it has for every year since we've been a public company.

    總而言之,20 多年來,ICE 不斷發展,以滿足客戶的需求並為股東提供價值。從這個角度來看,2024 年是我們連續第 19 年創下創紀錄的收入、創紀錄的營業收入和創紀錄的調整後每股盈餘。這種持續的成長記錄反映了我們業務多元化策略的質量,使公司處於一些正在經歷模擬到數位轉換的最大行業的中心,這一戰略創造了一種全天候業務模式,自我們成為上市公司以來,該模式每年都能夠很好地繼續推動增長。

  • I'd like to thank our customers for their business and their trust in 2024, and I want to thank my colleagues for the efforts that contributed to yet another record year at ICE.

    我要感謝我們的客戶在 2024 年的業務和信任,我還要感謝我的同事們為 ICE 再創紀錄的一年所做的努力。

  • I'll now turn our call back to our moderator, Lydia, and we'll conduct a question-and-answer session until 9:30 AM'''' Eastern Time.

    現在我將把電話轉回給我們的主持人莉迪亞,我們將進行問答環節,直到東部時間上午 9:30。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指令)

  • Ken Worthington, JP Morgan.

    摩根大通的肯‧沃辛頓。

  • Kenneth Worthington - Analyst

    Kenneth Worthington - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. When we look at the new client wins in mortgage, both on the origination and servicing side, there would seem to be a lot of new business getting up and running all at the same time, after a period of limbo between when Black Knight was announced and closed.

    嗨,早安。感謝您回答這個問題。當我們從抵押貸款業務的發起和服務方面來觀察新客戶的表現時,似乎會發現在經歷了從 Black Knight 宣佈到關閉的一段停滯期之後,有很多新業務同時湧現並運行。

  • Can you give us a sense of the cadence of the big new customer wins going live for MSP and Encompass? Are they front-end loaded, back-end loaded as we think about this year? And how does the new customer wins sort of contribute to the guidance that you gave us for 2025?

    您能否向我們介紹 MSP 和 Encompass 贏得大客戶的最新節奏?正如我們今年所想,他們是否注重前端和後端?那麼新客戶的贏得對您為我們 2025 年的指引有何貢獻?

  • Benjamin Jackson - President

    Benjamin Jackson - President

  • Hi, Ken, this is Ben. I'll start and then Warren will probably take the last part of that question. So recall, we closed on Black Knight roughly 18 months ago. And since then, we have closed, as you highlighted, a number of very significant large financial institutions onto both Encompass and onto MSP. We've also highlighted that it takes anywhere from 12 to 18 months for those clients to come online, get through all their testing.

    嗨,肯,我是本。我先開始,然後沃倫可能會回答問題的最後部分。回想一下,我們大約 18 個月前收購了 Black Knight。自那時起,正如您所強調的,我們已經關閉了 Encompass 和 MSP 上的一些非常重要的大型金融機構。我們也強調,這些客戶需要 12 到 18 個月的時間才能上線並完成所有測試。

  • This is all absolutely critical infrastructure, as you well know. And then once they start to come online, they'll roll it out division by division. So it takes time to make these changes happen.

    如你所知,這些都是絕對關鍵的基礎設施。一旦它們開始上線,他們就會逐一部門推廣。因此,實現這些改變需要時間。

  • Because the deal closed about 18 months ago, we're right now in that window where, in 2025, we are going to have a number of clients that we closed in those windows coming live as this year plays out. And I think you're going to see it coming in and building as the year plays out.

    由於該交易大約在 18 個月前完成,我們現在正處於這個窗口期,到 2025 年,我們將擁有一些在那些窗口中完成交易的客戶,這些客戶將會在今年年底前上線。而且我認為隨著時間的推移,你會看到它的出現和發展。

  • Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

    Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, Ken, I'd just add to that too. That's right, and we'll start to see those. That's what we talked to you guys about throughout the year, we'd start to see these impact 2025. And part of the reason we saw some stabilization towards the fourth quarter in the recurring revenue is because some of these are starting to come online too. And so I think we're at a point where we can start to grow from here.

    是的,肯,我也想補充一點。沒錯,我們將會開始看到這些。這就是我們全年與你們討論的內容,我們將在 2025 年開始看到這些影響。我們看到第四季經常性收入穩定的部分原因是因為其中一些收入也開始上線。所以我認為我們現在已經到了可以開始發展的階段。

  • I think one thing just to call out too is that, while all of that's good, and we have that coming online, there are still a little bit of some headwinds. There is the Flagstar attrition that should happen towards the end of the year. That's probably 0.5 point in terms of an impact on our growth rate. And then we also still will expect some headwinds from renewals on Encompass as -- particularly related to 2020 and 2021 vintage that you've heard us talk about throughout last year.

    我認為需要指出的一點是,雖然所有這些都是好的,而且我們已經開始實施這些措施,但仍然存在一些阻力。Flagstar 的人員減員預計將在今年底發生。就我們的成長率而言,這可能影響0.5個百分點。然後,我們仍將預期 Encompass 的續約將面臨一些阻力,特別是與您去年聽到我們談論的 2020 年和 2021 年年份相關的阻力。

  • A little bit more of that to go. That's probably, from a growth rate percentage, probably a low single-digit impact for us, but an improvement from what we saw last year. So there are some moving parts in there, but absolutely, as Ben said, we're starting to see some of the impact from those wins come online, and that will help us this year and then into next year as well.

    還剩一點點。從成長率百分比來看,這對我們來說可能只是一個低個位數的影響,但比去年的情況有所改善。所以這其中有一些變動因素,但正如本所說,我們絕對開始看到這些勝利帶來的一些影響,這將對我們今年乃至明年有所幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alex Blostein, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的亞歷克斯‧布洛斯坦 (Alex Blostein)。

  • Alexander Blostein - Analyst

    Alexander Blostein - Analyst

  • I was hoping we could spend a couple of minutes on trends you're seeing in WTI markets within your oil complex. ICE made a nice progress gaining market share over the course of last year. It looks like trends have picked back up again on the market share trend versus your primary competitor there. So what's driving that? How durable that is?

    我希望我們可以花幾分鐘時間討論您所在石油綜合體中 WTI 市場的趨勢。去年,ICE 在擴大市場佔有率方面取得了良好的進展。與您在那裡的主要競爭對手相比,市場佔有率趨勢似乎再次回升。那麼,是什麼原因導致的呢?它有多耐用?

  • How do you expect that marketplace and that ecosystem to evolve as you progress through '25 and '26?

    您預計在 2025 年和 2026 年,市場和生態系統將如何發展?

  • Benjamin Jackson - President

    Benjamin Jackson - President

  • Hi, Alex, it's Ben. I'll take this one. We're pleased with the overall growth of our entire oil complex. It's done very, very well over the last several years now. And a lot of what I think has fed into what's made WTI successful is innovations that we launched a few years back.

    嗨,亞歷克斯,我是本。我要這個。我們對整個石油綜合體的全面成長感到滿意。過去幾年來,我們的工作進展非常非常好。我認為 WTI 的成功很大程度上得益於我們幾年前推出的創新。

  • So one innovation in particular, was our Midland WTI HOU contract that we've talked about and highlighted. That contract is literally up 200% on a year-over-year basis to start this year and had a phenomenal year last year as well. Another interesting data point on that Midland WTI HOU contract is that it's a truly physically delivered contract that's supported by a lot of the big oil companies. And the amount of physical deliveries that we saw on our contract are double what our peer saw on WTI.

    其中一個特別的創新是我們討論和強調的 Midland WTI HOU 合約。從今年開始,該合約的收入年增了 200%,而去年也是表現非凡的一年。關於米德蘭 WTI HOU 合約的另一個有趣的數據點是,它是一個真正的實體交割合約,並受到許多大型石油公司的支持。我們合約的實物交割量是同業 WTI 的兩倍。

  • So it's a testament to the fact that the physical underpinning and structural pieces of this market are very strong. And this is pricing Midland WTI oil [based off ] Houston that's now also flowing into the Brent contract and also flowing into Europe as well.

    所以這證明這個市場的物理基礎和結構部分非常強勁。這是基於休士頓的米德蘭 WTI 原油的定價,現在該定價也流入了布蘭特原油合約以及歐洲。

  • So given all those dynamics, a lot of traders, when they're trading, they'll trade, as you know, they'll trade basis amongst other contracts. And the fact that we have Brent, we have the WTI HOU contract, and we have our own WTI contract, clients that want to trade this for maximum efficiency can trade all of those as a package or a subset of those package. And we think that's what's feeding into a lot of the growth in our WTI contract.

    因此,考慮到所有這些動態,許多交易員在交易時會進行交易,正如你所知,他們會在其他合約之間進行交易基礎。事實上,我們有布蘭特原油合約,有 WTI HOU 合約,也有我們自己的 WTI 合約,想要以最高效率進行交易的客戶可以將它們作為一個整體或作為其中的一部分進行交易。我們認為這正是推動 WTI 合約成長的主要原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Patrick Moley, Piper Sandler.

    派崔克·莫利,派珀·桑德勒。

  • Patrick Moley - Analyst

    Patrick Moley - Analyst

  • Yeah, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. So I just want to follow up on the mortgage guide, the low to mid-single revenue growth this year. Warren, you said that I think the high end of that would imply a low teens pickup in origination activity, and that's in line with what the industry forecasts are currently projecting. I think that growth number though is projecting around 30% growth in refi activity.

    是的,早安。感謝您回答這個問題。所以我只是想跟進抵押貸款指南,今年的單筆收入成長處於低到中等水平。沃倫,您說我認為這個高端意味著發起活動的回升速度會低於十幾歲,這與該行業目前的預測一致。我認為這個成長數字預示著再融資活動將成長 30% 左右。

  • So could you talk about how you're thinking about the dynamic between refi versus purchase activity next year just kind of through the lens of that mortgage guide you provided?

    那麼,您能否從您提供的抵押貸款指南的角度,談談您如何看待明年再融資與購買活動之間的動態?

  • Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

    Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Thanks, Patrick. So look, I think that that, based on where rates are today, that certainly to see that kind of refi growth might be a little optimistic, but we did want to incorporate that view into our guidance. And that's why we do also give you a more conservative sort of low end of the range in terms of what things could look like. It's obviously difficult to predict, particularly the refi market and what you might see on an interest rate perspective and the impact there.

    當然。謝謝,派崔克。所以,我認為,基於目前的利率水平,看到這種再融資成長可能有點樂觀,但我們確實希望將這種觀點納入我們的指導中。這就是為什麼我們也為您提供了更保守的低端範圍(就事物的外觀而言)。這顯然很難預測,特別是再融資市場以及你可能會看到的利率前景及其影響。

  • So look, I think we're seeing some improvement on the purchase side in terms of the fundamentals. I noted that in my script in terms of some inventory, more inventory coming on to the market, some price appreciation slowing and things of that nature. We'll have to sort of see how refits trend, and that will, as you know, largely depend on how the trajectory of interest rates.

    所以,我認為從基本面來看,我們看到購買方面有所改善。我在我的腳本中指出了一些庫存,更多的庫存進入市場,一些價格升值放緩以及諸如此類的事情。我們將必須觀察改裝趨勢如何,正如你所知,這在很大程度上取決於利率的趨勢。

  • So I tried to give you kind of a wide band in terms of what the year could look like from an origination perspective. But even within both ends of those -- that band, I think we've got some good growth that's coming through. And importantly, the recurring revenues will start to grow too as well.

    因此,我嘗試從起源的角度為您提供一個大致的年份範圍。但即使在這兩個範圍內,我認為我們都取得了良好的成長。而且重要的是,經常性收入也將開始成長。

  • So hard to know exactly how that's all going to play out. But I think through that, we've got an opportunity here to continue to invest in the business, advance the industry and really put our platform on a better footing as we move throughout the year.

    所以很難確切知道這一切將會如何發展。但我認為,透過這一點,我們有機會繼續投資於業務,推動產業發展,並在全年發展過程中真正使我們的平台處於更好的基礎之上。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Budish, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的本‧布迪什 (Ben Budish)。

  • Benjamin Budish - Analyst

    Benjamin Budish - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Warren, I was wondering if you could give a little bit more color on the timing of some of the expense synergies. Curious if you could kind of quantify what is the sort of your -- thinking about the pacing of the expense synergies you're realizing this year, what is sort of the year-over-year benefit embedded in your full year OpEx guide?

    嗨,早安。感謝您回答這個問題。沃倫,我想知道您是否可以更詳細地說明一些費用協同效應的時間安排。我很好奇,您是否可以量化您的情況——考慮到您今年實現的費用協同效應的步伐,您的全年營運支出指南中包含的同比收益是多少?

  • And given the increased expectation for now, I think, $230 million, how should we think about that as being layered in over the course of '26 or sort of achieved towards the beginning of '26, so we see a bigger year-over-year benefit. So just curious if you could help us with the sort of pacing those savings.

    鑑於目前的預期增加,我認為是 2.3 億美元,我們應該如何看待這一目標在 26 年期間的實現,或者在 26 年初實現,這樣我們才能看到更大的同比增長收益。我只是好奇您是否可以幫助我們確定這些儲蓄的節奏。

  • Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

    Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. So I think as you're thinking about the impact of this year, obviously, we had a big year -- well, really in 2023. So that'll go back a little bit. And so a lot of the synergies because we were very quick at the close of the deal to get these groups together and bring these groups together, we were able to realize a lot of the synergies in the third and the fourth quarter of 2023. And then, of course, a little bit in -- more in 2024 as well.

    當然。因此,我認為,當你思考今年的影響時,顯然我們度過了重要的一年——實際上是 2023 年。這樣就會回溯一點。因此,由於我們在交易結束時非常迅速地將這些群體聚集在一起,並將這些群體聚集在一起,因此我們能夠在 2023 年第三季和第四季實現許多協同效應。然後,當然,到 2024 年還會有更多。

  • Part of what you're also seeing as you kind of move throughout the year sequentially is that we're starting to invest in the business once we've gotten the organizations in the right spot. And so there's a lot of that is in the run rate, if you will, already in terms of the synergies that we've spoken to.

    隨著您全年的連續發展,您還會看到,一旦我們將組織置於正確的位置,我們就會開始對業務進行投資。所以,如果你願意的話,就我們談到的協同效應而言,其中許多已經反映在運行率中。

  • And so I think as you think about next year, there's a little bit of help there. Obviously, on a run rate basis, we've guided to about $25 million of help. Some of that's going to come towards the end of this year, so it won't be necessarily fully run rate -- have a full run rate impact this year.

    所以我認為當你考慮明年的時候,你會得到一點幫助。顯然,以運行率計算,我們預計援助金額約為 2500 萬美元。其中一些將在今年年底前實現,因此不一定會對今年的全面運行率產生影響。

  • And so as you're thinking about that, it will be a help. It's why you're seeing our expense guidance overall kind of more towards the lower end of what the organic constant currency guidance in the past has been excluding synergies at 3%. So it's helping us a little bit there.

    所以當你考慮到這一點時,它會有所幫助。這就是為什麼您會看到我們的費用指引整體上更接近過去有機恆定貨幣指引(不包括 3% 的協同效應)的低端。所以這對我們有一點幫助。

  • In terms of the go-forward and the 230, the extra 30 that we've added, a lot of that's going to come in later years. A lot of that is related to systems and infrastructure and real estate and things of that nature. It just takes time to position and get those cost savings out.

    就前進和 230 而言,我們額外增加了 30 個,其中許多將在以後幾年實現。其中許多與系統、基礎設施、房地產和諸如此類的事情有關。只是定位和節省成本需要時間。

  • So no change to the time frame necessarily in terms of reaching by 2028, but certainly an increase, of course, in the total amount we can achieve.

    因此,到 2028 年實現這一目標的時間框架不一定會發生變化,但我們能夠實現的總量肯定會增加。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dan Fannon, Jefferies.

    丹‧範農 (Dan Fannon),傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

  • Daniel Fannon - Analyst

    Daniel Fannon - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to follow up on the fixed income data outlook, mid-single-digit growth again. Can you talk to kind of the inputs there, whether it's pricing, new customer growth, new products? We can see the ASV, some good dynamics, I guess, ending this year. But can you talk about maybe any changes in demand trends or the outlook that's shifting as we think about '25 versus last year?

    謝謝。早安.我想跟進固定收益數據前景,再次實現中等個位數成長。您能談談其中的投入嗎,無論是定價、新客戶成長還是新產品?我想,我們可以看到 ASV 的一些良好動態將在今年結束。但您能否談談需求趨勢或前景相對於去年有何變化?

  • Christopher Edmonds - President - Fixed Income and Data Services

    Christopher Edmonds - President - Fixed Income and Data Services

  • Hi, this is Chris, and thanks for the question. What I would say right now is you're seeing a trend within the space of clients, probably more buy side than anything related where they are very focused on the number of vendors that they are doing business with and looking for the most robust catalogue of services available, so they can limit the amount of investment needed in order to consume the data that they need to run the business. And there's also a massive focus on predictability of cost, something we hear each and every day when engaging with the clients on that side.

    你好,我是克里斯,謝謝你的提問。我現在想說的是,您會看到客戶領域的一種趨勢,可能更多的是買方而不是任何相關方,他們非常關注與他們有業務往來的供應商數量,並尋找最強大的可用服務目錄,這樣他們就可以限制所需的投資額,以使用運營業務所需的數據。此外,我們也非常關注成本的可預測性,這是我們在與客戶接觸時每天都會聽到的。

  • So given our robust catalog, given the fact we're connected to most of these people, that is generating opportunities that we're seeing. And probably as a headwind, if you are a small smaller data provider that has maybe one or two of the segments that someone is looking for versus a much wider piece of that, that gives us opportunity and looking forward.

    因此,鑑於我們擁有豐富的目錄,鑑於我們與大多數人都有聯繫,我們看到這正在創造機會。可能的不利因素是,如果你是一個小型數據提供商,可能擁有某人正在尋找的一兩個細分市場,而不是更廣泛的細分市場,那麼這給了我們機會並值得期待。

  • I'll turn the other over to Warren, who can talk about the numeric piece of it.

    我將另一個問題交給沃倫,他可以談論其中的數位部分。

  • Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

    Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, Dan. So I think, look, the guidance we gave is pretty consistent with the last several years in terms of what we expect. And I think if you look at the ASV as we exit the fourth quarter, 5.4%, certainly sets up for another good year. And I think we'll have a solid year from both business lines within that recurring revenue -- within the recurring revenues that we have.

    是的,丹。所以我認為,就我們的預期而言,我們給出的指導與過去幾年的指導非常一致。我認為,如果您看看第四季末的 ASV,5.4% 的成長率無疑為另一個好年頭打下了基礎。我認為,在我們現有的經常性收入範圍內,這兩條業務線今年都將穩健的成長。

  • And I think particularly, one thing that we don't always talk about a whole lot, but the other data and network services business, it's been around 5% the last few quarters. I think that certainly can set up for a little bit of pickup as we move throughout the course of next year, in part because of some of the investments you've heard us talking about on the datacentre side.

    我認為特別是,我們並不總是談論很多,但其他數據和網路服務業務在過去幾個季度一直保持在 5% 左右。我認為,隨著明年的到來,這一數字肯定會有所回升,部分原因是您聽到我們在資料中心方面談論的一些投資。

  • So very happy with where that business has ended this year and the setup for next year, both on the other data and network services side and the fixed income and data analytics side as well. So again, another, think, solid year that -- coming in 2025.

    我對今年業務的結束以及明年的業務安排感到非常高興,包括其他數據和網路服務方面以及固定收益和數據分析方面。所以,再想想,又是一個堅實的一年──2025 年即將到來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Allen, Citi.

    花旗銀行的克里斯艾倫 (Chris Allen)。

  • Chris Allen - Analyst

    Chris Allen - Analyst

  • Yeah, morning everyone. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to maybe follow up on the energy markets. I'm kind of curious how you think the new administration policies may impact the energy markets from your perspective. Will it create any new potential opportunities for your business moving forward, or maybe potential headwinds? And then, Ben, any color just on -- you mentioned the opportunities in new trading relationships maybe in terms of what type of customers you are looking at there?

    嗯,大家早安。感謝您回答這個問題。我可能想關註一下能源市場。我有點好奇,從您的角度來看,您認為新政府政策將如何影響能源市場。它會為您的業務發展創造任何新的潛在機會還是潛在的阻力?然後,本,您能否談談——您提到了新的貿易關係中存在的機遇,也許就您正在尋找什麼類型的客戶而言?

  • Jeffrey Sprecher - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Sprecher - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Hi, this is Jeff. A couple of things. First of all, we talked a lot on this call already about our Houston WTI contract, which is really an export contract, and we're hearing the administration say they want to amplify US production, which we think will affect the export markets and play well into risk management using that contract.

    你好,我是傑夫。有幾件事。首先,我們在這次電話會議上已經多次談論了休士頓 WTI 合約,這實際上是一種出口合約,我們聽到政府表示他們希望擴大美國的產量,我們認為這將影響出口市場,並有助於利用該合約進行風險管理。

  • The other thing that we're beginning to hear a lot about from the administration is how sanctions might be used and tariffs on other countries. And again, we -- that may affect the global supply chain for energy. One of the takeaways from the European energy markets over the last few years was how quickly the energy markets are able to reorganize the supply chains.

    我們開始從政府那裡聽到很多的另一件事是可能會如何實施制裁以及對其他國家徵收關稅。這可能會影響全球能源供應鏈。過去幾年歐洲能源市場的其中一個亮點就是能源市場重組供應鏈的速度之快。

  • And then we've been investing in the Middle East, in our Murban contract and in our Abu Dhabi Exchange, which we think the risk management dynamics around the changing supply chains can have a positive effect for that contract as well.

    然後,我們一直在中東、我們的穆爾班合約和阿布達比交易所進行投資,我們認為圍繞不斷變化的供應鏈的風險管理動態也會對該合約產生積極影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kyle Voigt, KBW.

    凱爾·沃格特(Kyle Voigt),KBW。

  • Kyle Voigt - Analyst

    Kyle Voigt - Analyst

  • Actually, maybe I could just follow up on the prior question and continue discussion specifically on Dutch TTF. You've seen significant growth in TTF over the past few years. OI has doubled in the past two years alone. As you just noted, there was some -- some of this has been driven by changes in supply chains post Russia-Ukraine, as well as growth of US LNG into Europe.

    實際上,也許我可以跟進前面的問題並繼續討論荷蘭 TTF 的具體問題。過去幾年來,您已經看到 TTF 取得了顯著的成長。僅在過去兩年間,OI 就翻了一番。正如您剛才提到的,其中一些是由俄羅斯-烏克蘭之後的供應鏈變化以及美國液化天然氣進入歐洲的成長所推動的。

  • There have been some recent press headlines around the EU contemplated restarting Russia gas imports if there's a resolution to the war. I'm just wondering if you could speak to how that would potentially impact Dutch TTF and whether it changes anything with respect to the importance or utilization of that benchmark.

    最近一些媒體報告稱,如果戰爭解決,歐盟將考慮恢復從俄羅斯進口天然氣。我只是想知道您是否可以談談這可能會對荷蘭 TTF 產生什麼影響,以及它是否會對該基準的重要性或利用率產生任何變化。

  • Benjamin Jackson - President

    Benjamin Jackson - President

  • Thanks, Kyle. It's Ben. We've built our business in all of the commodities that we cover as global businesses. And that's how we've differentiated ourselves with hundreds, if not thousands, of contracts around the world, to help customers manage their risks at the point of production and consumption. And part of the reason that we did this alongside of partnering with our customers is that supply chains do evolve and they do change.

    謝謝,凱爾。是本。我們的業務範圍已涵蓋所有商品,並已發展成為全球性企業。這就是我們與世界各地數百甚至數千份合約的差異化之處,我們幫助客戶在生產和消費環節管理風險。我們這樣做並與客戶合作的原因之一是供應鏈確實在發展,確實在變化。

  • And right now, we're in a situation where the Ukraine has [seized] all Russian gas going through the Ukraine into Continental Europe. Could that change? Yes, it could. But for us, when we look at the open interest trends in our contracts and look at the open interest trends in TTF, it's an incredibly healthy business, incredibly healthy contract for us.

    現在,我們面臨的情況是,烏克蘭已經切斷了所有通過烏克蘭輸送到歐洲大陸的俄羅斯天然氣。這能改變嗎?是的,可以。但對我們來說,當我們查看合約的未平倉合約趨勢並查看 TTF 的未平倉合約趨勢時,我們發現這是一項非常健康的業務,非常健康的合約。

  • If you step back to when the Ukraine war started, our open interest in that contract held in, but trading volumes went depressed for a little bit until it was -- until the market kind of reset and supply chains reset. And then because, we believe, because the open interest held strong and continued to grow even during that window, that once the supply chain is reset, the market knew how to price and to think about supply and demand dynamics, that the contract has seen explosive growth. So we view it as a positive as these supply chains evolve and change via geopolitical issues.

    如果回顧烏克蘭戰爭開始時,我們對該合約的未平倉合約保持不變,但交易量有所下降,直到市場和供應鏈重置。然後,因為我們相信,由於未平倉合約保持強勁並在該窗口期內持續增長,一旦供應鏈重置,市場就知道如何定價並考慮供需動態,因此合約出現了爆炸式增長。因此,我們認為這是一件好事,因為這些供應鏈會隨著地緣政治問題而發展和改變。

  • Jeffrey Sprecher - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Sprecher - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And one other point that -- this is Jeff. One other point that Ben alluded to in his prepared remarks was that, increasingly now, we're seeing these global natural gas contracts trade as payers, [their basis] trades between geographies, and with TTF becoming a real benchmark, as Ben mentioned. And so as the supply chain trades away potentially and moves around the world, we would expect that those payer relationships would continue to do robust volume. That's partly how the market has been managing these supply chain differences.

    還有一點——這是傑夫。本在其準備好的發言中提到的另一點是,現在我們越來越多地看到這些全球天然氣合約作為付款人進行交易,[其基礎]在各個地區之間進行交易,而 TTF 正成為一個真正的基準,正如本提到的那樣。因此,隨著供應鏈的潛在交易和在世界各地的移動,我們預計這些付款人關係將繼續保持強勁成長。這在一定程度上是市場管理這些供應鏈差異的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alex Kramm, UBS.

    瑞銀的亞歷克斯·克拉姆(Alex Kramm)。

  • Alex Kramm - Analyst

    Alex Kramm - Analyst

  • Yeah, hey, good morning, everyone. Maybe just a quick one here. You talked about the AFX acquisition a little bit in passing, and I know it's small. But maybe you can just give us a little bit more color on what you expect to do with that asset. I mean you talked about some of the clients as in mortgage, obviously, it's interest rates.

    是的,嘿,大家早安。也許這裡只是快速的一次。您順便談到了 AFX 收購案,我知道這起收購案規模不大。但也許您可以向我們稍微透露一下您計劃如何處理該資產。我的意思是,您談到了一些客戶的抵押貸款,顯然是利率。

  • So maybe you talk about your US interest rate ambitions more broadly because you've talked about this over time, you're not very big there.

    因此,也許您會更廣泛地談論您對美國利率的期望,因為您已經談論這個問題很長時間了,但您在這方面的討論並不多。

  • And then maybe for Warren, is actually revenue contribution and where will that show up?

    那麼對華倫來說,這其實就是收入貢獻,而這又將在哪裡反映出來呢?

  • Christopher Edmonds - President - Fixed Income and Data Services

    Christopher Edmonds - President - Fixed Income and Data Services

  • Hi, Alex, it's Chris. So consistent with what we've done with other asset classes and other offerings around the history of ICE, it's making sure that we can find things to tuck in that our customers need. And you look at the overlap of that customer base and how that product is being used, we do think there are opportunities there for us to expand the use of those services along the time and create a little bit more transparency for those current users and those within the mortgage space as a whole that may wish to use it in the future.

    嗨,亞歷克斯,我是克里斯。因此,與我們在 ICE 歷史上對其他資產類別和其他產品所做的做法一致,我們確保能夠找到客戶需要的東西。並且,您可以從客戶群的重疊情況以及產品的使用情況來看,我們確實認為有機會隨著時間的推移擴大這些服務的使用範圍,並為現有用戶以及未來可能希望使用這些服務的整個抵押貸款領域用戶創造更多的透明度。

  • Certainly, it's another product that we have in the inventory for folks to use where they do not have to leave our ecosystem in order to go out and manage the risk they may be facing or manage the book that they have there. So it's still early days and putting that into the process, but we look forward to growing that like we have many other products throughout the history of the company as they fit hand-and-glove with other pieces that we have.

    當然,這是我們庫存中的另一種產品,人們可以使用它,而不必離開我們的生態系統就可以出去管理他們可能面臨的風險或管理他們在那裡的帳簿。因此,現在還處於早期階段,但我們期待著發展它,就像我們在公司歷史上擁有的許多其他產品一樣,因為它們與我們擁有的其他產品緊密契合。

  • Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

    Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

  • And Alex, this is Warren. So it's an immaterial amount of total revenue today. And so it's a small amounts. I don't know you'll see much of an impact. It will be in the Fixed Income & Data Services segment and the Exchange component of that would be on ICE Bond side.

    亞歷克斯,這是華倫。因此,這對今天的總收入來說只是一個無關緊要的數字。所以數量很少。我不知道你會看到多大的影響。它將屬於固定收益和數據服務部門,而其交易所部分將位於 ICE 債券方面。

  • And then the index component will be more on the -- will, of course, be in the index business, which is in fixed income data and analytics business line.

    然後,指數成分將更多地集中在——當然,是在指數業務中,即固定收益數據和分析業務線中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ashish Sabadra, RBC.

    Ashish Sabadra,RBC。

  • Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

    Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question. I had a question on the mortgage business. How are the contract minimums on average for Encompass compared to the mortgage origination levels in 2024? Or another way would be how much do transaction volumes have to improve to get full benefit of the coil spring from that mortgage recovery? Thanks.

    感謝您回答我的問題。我對抵押貸款業務有疑問。與 2024 年的抵押貸款發放水準相比,Encompass 的平均合約最低限額如何?或者換句話說,交易量需要提高多少才能充分受益於抵押貸款復甦的動力?謝謝。

  • Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

    Warren Gardiner - Chief Financial Officer

  • It's Warren. So I think the way to think about this -- well, let me back up. Right now, as we kind of move through this year, we still have the, I would say, the vast minority of customers or sort of loans from our customers that are above the minimum, so the sells of relatively small amount that are trending above the minimum. But over the last several quarters, that's been improving, and actually, the last few quarters have been some of the best quarters in terms of the percent above the minimum that we've seen in a number of years. So we're heading in the right direction on that.

    是沃倫。所以我認為思考這個問題的方式是——好吧,讓我回顧一下。目前,隨著今年的進展,我想說,我們仍然有絕大多數客戶或來自客戶的貸款高於最低限額,因此相對較少的金額的銷售額趨於高於最低限額。但在過去幾個季度,情況一直在改善,實際上,從高於最低值的百分比來看,過去幾個季度是我們多年來表現最好的幾個季度之一。因此,我們正朝著正確的方向前進。

  • That's in part because the market has gotten a little bit better. But then -- and also, as you've heard us note on calls that the minimums have been coming down for a number of the customers as they've renewed. So that's been sort of a dual impact that's helping on that front.

    部分原因是市場已經有所好轉。但是—而且,正如您在電話中聽到我們所說,隨著許多客戶的續約,最低還款金額已經下降。因此,這在某種程度上具有雙重影響,對這方面有幫助。

  • I think I'd point you back, in terms of how to think about the impact, I'd point you back to some comments that we've made a few quarters ago, which is, if we are in a $7 million to $10 million loan environment at an industry level, we'd expect revenues to be a couple of hundred million to up to close to around $0.5 billion in terms of incremental revenue in those two scenarios.

    關於如何看待影響,我想讓你回顧一下我們在幾個季度前所做的一些評論,也就是說,如果我們處於 700 萬到 1000 萬美元的行業貸款環境中,我們預計在這兩種情況下的增量收入將達到幾億美元到接近 5 億美元左右。

  • And so as we move into a more normal market, and for what it's worth, 10 million loans has kind of been the average over the last 30 years. the median has been around 8 million loans, so as we move back toward a more normal market, you're going to certainly start to see that impact flow through a little bit more on the transaction side as that impacts those contracts.

    因此,隨著我們進入一個更正常的市場,不管怎樣,1000 萬筆貸款在過去 30 年裡一直處於平均水平。中位數約為 800 萬筆貸款,因此,隨著我們回到更正常的市場,您肯定會開始看到這種影響在交易方面產生更大的影響,因為這會影響這些合約。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bill Katz, TD Cowen.

    比爾·卡茨(Bill Katz),TD Cowen 公司。

  • Robin Holby - Analyst

    Robin Holby - Analyst

  • Good morning. This is Robin Holby on for Bill Katz. We wanted to get your comments on interest rate volumes and open interest. Is there anything structural that you're doing or have done to drive the robust volume and open interest growth here? And where do you see the opportunities or potential headwinds for the rates business in 2025? Thank you.

    早安.這是羅賓霍爾比 (Robin Holby),取代比爾卡茲 (Bill Katz)。我們希望聽聽您對利率量和未平倉合約的評論。您正在採取或已經採取了哪些結構性措施來推動這裡的交易量和未平倉合約強勁增長?您認為 2025 年利率業務的機會和潛在阻力是什麼?謝謝。

  • Benjamin Jackson - President

    Benjamin Jackson - President

  • It's Ben. We were very pleased with the growth that we've seen in our interest rate complex over the last couple of years, and even starting into this year, they're off to a fantastic start. So we obviously have a multicurrency interest rate complex that we've built up. We continue to invest in options and development of options markets around all of our interest rate futures, which has also helped in the development of those contracts. And we continue to invest in making sure that we're getting the best market participants into these markets to create tight liquid markets for our clients.

    是本。我們對過去幾年利率體系的成長感到非常高興,甚至從今年開始,利率體係就有了一個很好的開始。因此我們顯然已經建立了多幣種利率體系。我們繼續投資於所有利率期貨的選擇權和選擇權市場的發展,這也有助於這些合約的發展。我們將繼續投資,以確保將最好的市場參與者引入這些市場,為我們的客戶創造緊密的流動性市場。

  • So those are some of the things that we've done. I think that as it relates to persistent interest rate volatility that's going on around the world, obviously, we have had a bunch of administration changes around the world. Jeff alluded to in his comments and his prepared remarks around acts of man and the impact that has.

    這些就是我們所做的一些事情。我認為,由於它與世界各地持續的利率波動有關,顯然我們在世界各地經歷了一系列的行政變革。傑夫在他的評論和準備好的演講中提到了人類的行為及其影響。

  • So with the administration changes happening, settling in, we'll see what that means in terms of central bank policy and trade policies as they develop, all of which we think should see volatility into the interest rate markets globally, and we're well positioned for it.

    因此,隨著政府變革的發生和穩定,我們將看到這對央行政策和貿易政策意味著什麼,我們認為所有這些都會導致全球利率市場波動,我們已做好充分準備。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We're out of time for further questions. So I'll pass you back to Jeff Sprecher, Chair and CEO, for closing comments.

    謝謝。我們沒有足夠的時間回答其他問題。因此我將把您交還給董事長兼執行長傑夫‧斯普雷徹 (Jeff Sprecher),請他發表最後評論。

  • Jeffrey Sprecher - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Jeffrey Sprecher - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thank you, Lydia, for moderating the call, and thank you all for joining us this morning. We look forward to updating you again very soon. We're going to continue to innovate for customers and continue to drive this all-weather business model that we've been building. With that, I hope you'll have a great day.

    好吧,感謝莉迪亞主持這次電話會議,也感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們期待很快能再次向您提供最新消息。我們將繼續為客戶進行創新,並繼續推動我們一直在建立的全天候商業模式。最後,我希望您度過愉快的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路了。