Hexcel Corp (HXL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Hexcel Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

早安，女士們，先生們。歡迎參加赫氏 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that this call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，此通話正在錄音。

Now at this time, I would like to turn things over to Mr. Patrick Winterlich, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

現在這個時候，我想把事情交給財務長 Patrick Winterlich 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Hexcel Corporation's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Before beginning, let me cover the formalities. I want to remind everyone about the safe harbor provisions related to any forward-looking statements we may make during the course of this call. Certain statements contained in this call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. They involve estimates, assumptions, judgments and uncertainties caused by a variety of factors that could cause future actual results or outcomes to differ materially from our forward-looking statements today. Such factors are detailed in the company's SEC filings and last night's news release.

謝謝你，保羅。大家，早安。歡迎參加赫氏公司 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。在開始之前，讓我先介紹一下手續。我想提醒大家注意與我們在本次電話會議期間可能做出的任何前瞻性陳述相關的安全港條款。本次電話會議中包含的某些陳述可能構成1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。它們涉及由各種因素引起的估計、假設、判斷和不確定性，可能導致未來的實際結果或結果有所不同實質上來自我們今天的前瞻性陳述。這些因素在該公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件和昨晚的新聞稿中都有詳細說明。

A replay of this call will be available on the Investor Relations page of our website. Lastly, this call is being recorded by Hexcel Corporation and is copyrighted material. It cannot be recorded or rebroadcast without our express permission. Your participation on this call constitutes your consent to that request.

本次電話會議的重播將在我們網站的投資者關係頁面上提供。最後，本次通話由赫氏公司錄製，是受版權保護的資料。未經我們明確許可，不得對其進行錄製或轉播。您參與本次通話即表示您同意該要求。

With me today are Nick Stanage, our Chairman, CEO and President; and Kurt Goddard, our Vice President of Investor Relations. The purpose of the call is to review our third quarter 2023 results detailed in our news release issued yesterday.

今天與我在一起的有我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁尼克·斯坦尼奇 (Nick Stanage)；以及我們的投資者關係副總裁 Kurt Goddard。這次電話會議的目的是回顧我們昨天發布的新聞稿中詳細介紹的 2023 年第三季業績。

Now let me turn the call over to Nick.

現在讓我把電話轉給尼克。

Thanks, Patrick. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today as we share our third quarter 2023 results. Continued strong demand in our Commercial Aerospace and Space & Defense markets resulted in another consecutive quarter of double-digit sales growth for Hexcel. Hexcel continues to benefit from the post-pandemic travel recovery and from the growing pull for newer, more fuel-efficient lightweight aircraft to meet that demand and to replace aging fleets.

謝謝，派崔克。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們，分享 2023 年第三季的業績。商業航空航太和航太與國防市場的持續強勁需求導致赫氏銷售額連續一個季度實現兩位數成長。赫氏繼續受益於疫情後旅行的復甦，以及對更新、更省油的輕型飛機的日益增長的需求，以滿足這一需求並取代老化的機隊。

Over the past several months, numerous airlines around the world have placed a significant number of orders for both narrowbody and widebody aircraft, resulting in total backlogs that are at record levels.

在過去的幾個月裡，世界各地的許多航空公司都下了大量的窄體和寬體飛機訂單，導致總積壓達到創紀錄的水平。

Hexcel is on a long-term growth trajectory, and we are working hard to ensure that we are ready to satisfy that demand. This involves bringing back operational capacity, which has been either turned off or running at reduced rates since the pandemic. We have been recruiting the talent we need to meet the strong demand ahead of us, and we continue to focus on training and expanding shop floor experience to prepare for the higher production rates. We're excited about the growth opportunities ahead, and we expect that growth to drive significant cash generation over the next several years.

赫氏正處於長期成長軌道，我們正在努力確保我們為滿足這項需求的準備。這涉及恢復營運能力，自大流行以來，營運能力要么被關閉，要么以較低的速度運行。我們一直在招募所需的人才來滿足未來的強勁需求，並繼續專注於培訓和擴大車間經驗，為更高的生產力做好準備。我們對未來的成長機會感到興奮，我們預計這種成長將在未來幾年推動大量現金產生。

As a reminder, we continue to expect capital expenditures to remain below $100 million for the next few years as we grow into, and reutilize existing plant and equipment.

提醒一下，隨著我們不斷發展並重新利用現有工廠和設備，我們仍然預計未來幾年的資本支出將保持在 1 億美元以下。

Third quarter sales grew strongly year-over-year, and they also reflect the normal third quarter seasonality we typically experience from the European summer vacation period. In addition, there are some ongoing supply chain challenges in the commercial aerospace market as the OEMs navigate their way through the strong ramp-up in build rates.

第三季銷售額較去年同期強勁成長，這也反映了我們在歐洲暑假期間通常經歷的第三季的正常季節性。此外，隨著原始設備製造商在建造率的強勁增長中努力前進，商業航空航太市場的供應鏈仍面臨一些挑戰。

Given our higher number of production assets in service today, along with the preparation to support strong growth ahead, the expected lower third quarter sales resulted in a reduction in our margins. The supply chains for our raw materials are greatly improved compared to last year, though shipping lead times are still not quite back to the levels seen prepandemic.

鑑於我們目前投入使用的生產資產數量較多，以及支持未來強勁成長的準備工作，預計第三季銷售額下降將導致我們的利潤率下降。與去年相比，我們的原材料供應鏈有了很大改善，儘管運輸交貨時間仍沒有完全恢復到疫情前的水平。

Pressures also continue around certain inflationary impacts, most notably energy costs in Europe. Our response to all these challenges is our ongoing commitment to operational excellence, which continues to drive efficiencies and increase productivity throughout our operations.

某些通膨影響的壓力也持續存在，尤其是歐洲的能源成本。我們對所有這些挑戰的回應是我們對卓越營運的持續承諾，這將繼續提高我們整個營運的效率和生產力。

Positioning in advance for the build rate growth ahead is critical, both for Hexcel and our customers to avoid disruptions and to replenish the supply chain. The commercial aerospace industry is on a fast-paced journey to ramp the build rates of modern lightweight aircraft.

對於赫氏和我們的客戶來說，提前定位未來的建置速度成長至關重要，以避免中斷並補充供應鏈。商業航空航太業正在快速提高現代輕型飛機的建造速度。

Over the next 3 years, build rates for narrowbody aircraft are expected to increase by nearly 50% and build rates for widebody aircraft are expected to almost double. This is both a challenge and a great opportunity, and Hexcel is determined to be ready to ensure our products are produced efficiently and delivered on time to our customers.

未來 3 年，窄體飛機的建造率預計將增加近 50%，寬體飛機的建造率預計將幾乎翻倍。這既是一個挑戰，也是一個巨大的機遇，赫氏決心做好準備，確保我們的產品高效生產並按時交付給客戶。

The forecasted cash generation over this period will provide significant capital deployment opportunities in the coming years, while we continue to maintain strong discipline around our balance sheet structure.

預計在此期間產生的現金將為未來幾年提供大量的資本配置機會，同時我們將繼續對資產負債表結構保持嚴格的紀律。

This is truly a great time to be in the business of manufacturing lightweight composite materials.

這確實是從事輕質複合材料製造業務的好時機。

Now let me highlight some of the third quarter results, and Patrick will then provide more detail on the numbers.

現在讓我重點介紹第三季的一些結果，然後帕特里克將提供有關數字的更多詳細資訊。

Commercial Aerospace sales of almost $252 million increased more than 19% in constant currency compared to the third quarter of 2022. The strongest growth came from the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 widebody programs. Narrowbody sales were relatively flat year-over-year, reflecting some temporary disruptions in the overall aerospace supply chain.

與 2022 年第三季相比，商用航空航太銷售額接近 2.52 億美元，以固定匯率計算成長超過 19%。最強勁的成長來自空中巴士 A350 和波音 787 寬體飛機專案。窄體機銷售量較去年同期相對持平，反映出整個航太供應鏈出現了一些暫時的中斷。

While each quarter, we highlight the strongest programs from Airbus and Boeing, remember, we have great positions in the business jet segment. Other Commercial Aerospace increased more than 20% in the third quarter on continued strong business jet demand.

雖然每個季度我們都會專注於空中巴士和波音最強大的項目，但請記住，我們在公務機領域擁有出色的地位。由於公務機需求持續強勁，第三季其他商用航空航太業務成長超過 20%。

Let me highlight a couple of additional points. First, the combined Airbus, Boeing backlog currently stands at a record 13,775 aircraft. Airlines are securing their place in line that is 8 to 10 years long as they plan to replenish their fleets with new efficient lightweight aircraft. Virtually every OEM out there is ramping as fast as the supply chain will allow.

讓我強調另外幾點。首先，目前空中巴士和波音的積壓飛機總數達到創紀錄的 13,775 架。航空公司正計劃用新型高效輕型飛機補充其機隊，確保自己在 8 至 10 年的時間裡佔有一席之地。事實上，每個 OEM 都在供應鏈允許的範圍內以盡可能快的速度進行生產。

Commercial Aerospace is booming and demand remains strong, perhaps stronger than ever. Lightweight materials for fuel-efficient aircraft are being pulled harder than I have seen in my 14 years with Hexcel, and the reason is clear, making flying platforms light and strong is the #1 enabler for both performance and sustainability, and Hexcel is at the leading edge of developing and producing these technologies.

商業航空航太正在蓬勃發展，需求仍然強勁，甚至比以往任何時候都更強勁。省油飛機的輕質材料正受到比我在赫氏工作14 年來所見的更大力度，原因很明顯，使飛行平台變得輕而堅固是性能和可持續性的第一推動因素，而赫氏在這方面處於領先地位。開發和生產這些技術的領先優勢。

Secondly, we recognize that while the next narrowbody program might not have a scheduled launch date, material selections for those aircraft are several years in advance of launch, and that time is now. We have tremendous efforts underway as we pursue those opportunities with our customers.

其次，我們認識到，雖然下一個窄體機計畫可能沒有預定的發射日期，但這些飛機的材料選擇是在發射前幾年進行的，而現在就是這個時間。當我們與客戶一起尋求這些機會時，我們正在付出巨大的努力。

Turning to Space & Defense. Sales of almost $129 million increased 17% in constant currency, with broad-based growth across a number of military platforms globally, including classified programs. Defense spending is on an upward trajectory in many countries as governments raise budgets in response to the growing instability and increased number of conflicts occurring around the world today.

轉向太空與國防。以固定匯率計算，銷售額近 1.29 億美元，成長 17%，全球多個軍事平台（包括機密項目）均廣泛成長。隨著當今世界各地日益不穩定和衝突數量增加，各國政府提高預算，許多國家的國防支出呈現上升趨勢。

In August, it was announced that the U.S. Navy awarded Sikorsky a $2.7 billion contract to build and deliver 35 additional CH-53K helicopters. And that's good news, both for our customers and for us. As you know, the CH-53K is becoming one of our top defense programs.

8 月，美國海軍宣布授予西科斯基一份價值 27 億美元的合同，用於建造和交付另外 35 架 CH-53K 直升機。這對我們的客戶和我們來說都是好消息。如您所知，CH-53K 正在成為我們的頂級防禦項目之一。

Also in August, we celebrated the landing of Chandrayaan -3 on the moon. It was the first lunar probe under the program launched by the Indian Space Research Organization, and our Hexcel lightweight advanced composites were on board.

同樣在八月，我們慶祝了月船-3號登陸月球。這是印度太空研究組織發起的該計畫下的第一個月球探測器，船上搭載了我們的赫氏輕質先進複合材料。

Now turning to Industrial. Sales of about $39 million decreased 21% in constant currency, attributed primarily to lower wind energy sales. Globally, the wind energy remains -- wind energy industry remains challenged. Our legacy wind business is now focused in Austria, which continues to deliver to our largest wind customer, Vestas. Other parts of our Industrial business continue to grow, most notably automotive, which has increased year-over-year and now is the largest subsegment for us in Industrial.

現在轉向工業。以固定匯率計算，銷售額約 3,900 萬美元下降 21%，這主要是由於風能銷售額下降。在全球範圍內，風能仍然存在——風能產業仍然面臨挑戰。我們的傳統風電業務現在主要集中在奧地利，該業務繼續向我們最大的風電客戶維斯塔斯供貨。我們工業業務的其他部分繼續成長，尤其是汽車業務，它逐年成長，現在是我們工業業務中最大的細分市場。

Our presence in high-end sports cars and SUVs as well as carbon fiber wheels is growing, pulling through high value-added composites materials. Other areas such as marine, electric vehicles and hydrogen pressure vessels, where there is a need for value-adding advanced composite solutions, are also being explored.

透過高附加價值複合材料，我們在高端跑車和 SUV 以及碳纖維車輪領域的業務不斷成長。船舶、電動車和氫壓力容器等其他需要增值先進複合材料解決方案的領域也在探索中。

Year-to-date, total Hexcel sales of more than $1.3 billion are up more than 15% year-over-year in constant currency, and EPS is up more than 50% to $1.38 at the end of September 2023, from $0.88 this time last year, all of which reflects positive momentum and underpins our confidence in continued strong demand and growth.

今年迄今，赫氏總銷售額超過 13 億美元，以固定匯率計算，同比增長超過 15%，每股收益從此次的 0.88 美元增長超過 50%，至 2023 年 9 月末的 1.38 美元去年，所有這些都體現了積極的勢頭，並支撐了我們對持續強勁的需求和成長的信心。

As evidence of that confidence, we completed a stock buyback of $30 million during the third quarter.

作為這種信心的證據，我們在第三季完成了 3000 萬美元的股票回購。

Lastly, our sales, EPS and free cash flow guidance remains unchanged for 2023.

最後，我們 2023 年的銷售額、每股盈餘和自由現金流指引維持不變。

Now I'll turn it over to Patrick to provide more details on the numbers.

現在我將把它交給帕特里克，以提供有關數字的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Nick. As a reminder, the majority of our sales are denominated in dollars. However, our cost base is a mix of dollars, euros and British pounds as we have a significant presence in Europe, including both manufacturing and R&D. As a result, when the dollar strengthens against the euro and the pound, our sales translate lower, while our costs also translate lower, leading to a net benefit to our margins. Conversely, a weak dollar is a headwind to our financial results.

謝謝你，尼克。提醒一下，我們的銷售額大部分都是以美元計價的。然而，我們的成本基礎是美元、歐元和英鎊的混合體，因為我們在歐洲擁有重要的業務，包括製造和研發。因此，當美元兌歐元和英鎊走強時，我們的銷售額就會下降，而我們的成本也會下降，為我們的利潤帶來淨收益。相反，美元疲軟對我們的財務表現不利。

We hedge this currency exposure over a 10-quarter horizon to protect our operating income. As a result, currency changes are layered into financial results over time. As a reminder, the year-over-year sales comparisons I will provide are in constant currency, which thereby removes the foreign exchange impact to sales.

我們在 10 個季度內對沖這種貨幣風險，以保護我們的營業收入。因此，隨著時間的推移，貨幣變化會逐漸反映在財務表現上。提醒一下，我將提供的同比銷售比較是按固定匯率計算的，從而消除了外匯對銷售的影響。

Our Q3 sales were impacted by the expected seasonality we previously highlighted as well as some general challenges in the commercial aerospace market supply chain. However, as Nick described, the outlook for Commercial Aerospace remains extremely robust, providing us the confidence to position our infrastructure and workforce for the anticipated strong growth ahead.

我們第三季的銷售受到我們先前強調的預期季節性以及商業航空市場供應鏈中的一些普遍挑戰的影響。然而，正如尼克所描述的，商業航空航天的前景仍然極其強勁，這使我們有信心為未來預期的強勁增長做好基礎設施和勞動力的定位。

Turning to our 3 markets. Commercial Aerospace represented approximately 60% of total third quarter sales. Third quarter Commercial Aerospace sales of $251.9 million increased 19.2% compared to the third quarter of 2022, led by growth in the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787 programs. Total narrowbody sales, including the Airbus A320neo, Airbus A220 and Boeing MAX were unchanged year-over-year.

轉向我們的 3 個市場。商業航空航太約佔第三季總銷售額的 60%。在空中巴士 A350 和波音 787 專案成長的帶動下，第三季商用航空航太銷售額為 2.519 億美元，較 2022 年第三季成長 19.2%。包括空中巴士 A320neo、空中巴士 A220 和波音 MAX 在內的窄體機總銷量較去年同期維持不變。

The other commercial aerospace category grew 20% with business debts displaying the most significant growth. Space & Defense & represented approximately 31% of third quarter sales and totaled $128.8 million, increasing 17.1% from the same period in 2022. Sales strength came from a variety of different programs, including a number of international fixed-wing aircraft programs and domestically from growth in classified programs.

其他商業航空航太類別成長了 20%，其中企業債務成長最為顯著。航太與國防領域約佔第三季銷售額的 31%，總計 1.288 億美元，較 2022 年同期成長 17.1%。銷售強勁來自各種不同的項目，包括多個國際固定翼飛機項目和國內項目分類項目的增長。

Industrial comprised approximately 9% of third quarter 2023 sales. Industrial sales totaled $38.8 million, decreasing 21.3% comparing to the third quarter of 2022. The high-end automotive market, which is where we focus, grew strongly year-over-year, while wind continued to weaken. The global wind industry is currently facing a number of challenges, and we are experiencing lower demand as a result.

工業銷售額約佔 2023 年第三季銷售額的 9%。工業銷售額總計 3,880 萬美元，較 2022 年第三季下降 21.3%。我們關注的高端汽車市場較去年同期強勁成長，而風電市場持續疲軟。全球風電產業目前面臨許多挑戰，因此需求下降。

As a reminder, all of our wind energy production and expertise is now concentrated in Austria following our restructuring in North America and China.

需要提醒的是，在北美和中國進行重組後，我們所有的風能生產和專業知識現在都集中在奧地利。

On a consolidated basis, gross margin for the third quarter was 21.8% compared to 22.4% last year. With the anticipated strong growth ahead, the company has infrastructure and headcount in place to meet the forecasted high levels of demand and ensure our customers are fully supported as aircraft build rates continue to ramp. This growth related overhead, however, is a headwind in the short term, impacting margins, particularly in periods with lower run rate sales such as we saw in the third quarter.

綜合來看，第三季毛利率為 21.8%，去年同期為 22.4%。鑑於未來預期的強勁成長，該公司擁有適當的基礎設施和員工隊伍，可以滿足預計的高水準需求，並確保我們的客戶在飛機製造率持續上升時得到充分支持。然而，這種與成長相關的管理費用在短期內是一種阻力，會影響利潤率，特別是在銷售運作率較低的時期，例如我們在第三季看到的情況。

As a percentage of sales, selling, general and administrative expenses and R&T expenses were 11.6% in the third quarter compared to 11.1% in the third quarter of 2022. The increase reflects the necessary infrastructure for new commercial growth as well as supporting the R&T organization with new product development.

第三季銷售、一般和管理費用以及研發費用佔銷售額的百分比為 11.6%，而 2022 年第三季為 11.1%。這一增長反映了新商業增長所需的基礎設施以及支持研發組織隨著新產品的開發。

Adjusted operating income in the third quarter was $42.8 million or 10.2% of sales, compared to $41.2 million or 11.3% of sales in the comparable prior year period. Due to our hedging program, foreign exchange rates had no impact on third quarter adjusted operating income when comparing to the prior year.

第三季調整後營業收入為 4,280 萬美元，佔銷售額的 10.2%，而去年同期為 4,120 萬美元，佔銷售額的 11.3%。由於我們的對沖計劃，與前一年相比，外匯匯率對第三季調整後的營業收入沒有影響。

Now turning to our 2 segments. The Composite Materials segment represented 81% of total sales and generated an operating margin of 12.3%. The operating margin in the comparable prior year period was 13.4%. The Engineered Products segment, which is comprised of our structures and engineered core businesses, represented 19% of total sales and generated a 7.8% operating income margin as compared to 8.3% in the comparable prior year period.

現在轉向我們的兩個部分。複合材料部門佔總銷售額的 81%，營業利益率為 12.3%。上年同期營業利益率為 13.4%。工程產品部門由我們的結構和工程核心業務組成，佔總銷售額的 19%，營業利潤率為 7.8%，而去年同期為 8.3%。

Net cash provided by operating activities was $98.1 million year-to-date compared to $56.4 million for the comparable period in 2022. Working capital was a cash use of $112.1 million year-to-date to support higher sales. For the comparable prior year period, working capital increased $115 million.

年初至今，經營活動提供的淨現金為 9,810 萬美元，而 2022 年同期為 5,640 萬美元。年初至今，營運資金為支持更高銷售額而使用的現金 1.121 億美元。與去年同期相比，營運資金增加了 1.15 億美元。

Our strong focus on disciplined working capital management continues, as illustrated by the inventory reduction in the third quarter despite the lower revenue. Excellent performance on collections also supported third quarter working capital reduction.

我們繼續高度重視嚴格的營運資本管理，正如第三季度儘管收入較低但庫存減少所顯示的那樣。收款業務的優異表現也支持了第三季營運資本的減少。

As just mentioned, our focus on inventory is becoming evident with raw materials decreasing approximately $20 million on a sequential basis as we purposefully reduced our buffer or safety stock. As previously discussed, our supply chain and input lead times have improved significantly from the first half of 2022. We continue to target further inventory reductions.

正如剛才提到的，我們對庫存的關注變得越來越明顯，由於我們有目的地減少了緩衝或安全庫存，原材料環比減少了約 2000 萬美元。如前所述，我們的供應鏈和投入交貨時間較 2022 年上半年有了顯著改善。我們繼續以進一步減少庫存為目標。

Capital expenditures on an accrual basis were $88.7 million year-to-date in 2023, which included the previously disclosed property purchase for our facility in Massachusetts. Without the property purchase in 2023, capital expenditure would be $50.7 million, which compares to $49.1 million in the prior year period.

2023 年迄今為止，按權責發生製計算的資本支出為 8,870 萬美元，其中包括先前披露的為我們在馬薩諸塞州工廠購買的房產。如果 2023 年不購買房產，資本支出將為 5,070 萬美元，而去年同期為 4,910 萬美元。

Free cash flow for the first 9 months of 2023 was $3.7 million, which includes the Massachusetts property acquisition, but does not include the proceeds from the Colorado facility sold in the third quarter.

2023 年前 9 個月的自由現金流為 370 萬美元，包括馬薩諸塞州的房產收購，但不包括第三季出售的科羅拉多工廠的收益。

For the comparable prior year period, free cash flow was negative $1.9 million.

與去年同期相比，自由現金流為負 190 萬美元。

The Board of Directors declared a $0.125 quarterly dividend yesterday, payable to stockholders of record as of November 3 with the payment of November 13. We repurchased approximately $30 million of common stock in the third quarter. The remaining authorization under the share repurchase program on September 30, 2023, was $187 million.

董事會昨天宣布發放 0.125 美元的季度股息，支付給截至 11 月 3 日登記在冊的股東，並於 11 月 13 日支付。我們在第三季度回購了約 3000 萬美元的普通股。截至2023年9月30日，股份回購計畫的剩餘授權為1.87億美元。

The company's net debt-to-EBITDA leverage was approximately 1.8x at the end of the third quarter.

截至第三季末，該公司的淨負債與 EBITDA 槓桿約為 1.8 倍。

We are maintaining our 2023 guidance, except for adjusting the estimated annual tax rate due to some favorable law changes domestically and internationally. Our 2023 estimated annual effective tax rate is now 21% compared to 23% previously. As a reminder, our sales guidance is $1.765 billion to $1.835 billion. Our adjusted EPS guidance is $1.80 to $1.94. And free cash flow is guided to be greater than $110 million.

我們維持 2023 年的指引，但由於國內和國際的一些有利法律變化而調整了預計年稅率。我們預計 2023 年的年度有效稅率目前為 21%，而之前為 23%。提醒一下，我們的銷售指引為 17.65 億美元至 18.35 億美元。我們調整後的每股盈餘指引為 1.80 美元至 1.94 美元。自由現金流預計超過 1.1 億美元。

With that, let me turn the call back to Nick.

接下來，讓我把電話轉回給尼克。

Thanks, Patrick. Most of you know that we have a significant presence in Morocco. We are deeply saddened by the loss of life following the earthquake last month that tragically devastated parts of the country. Fortunately, all our employees in that region are safe and our engineered core operations in Casablanca remain fully operational.

謝謝，派崔克。你們大多數人都知道我們在摩洛哥擁有重要的業務。上個月發生的地震給該國部分地區造成了悲慘的破壞，我們對此深感悲痛。幸運的是，我們在該地區的所有員工都很安全，我們在卡薩布蘭卡的工程核心業務仍然全面運作。

As a final note, I want to share that our leadership team and members of our Board of Directors spent time earlier this month with our R&T team reviewing new products and processes in development, and we couldn't be more excited about the future of Hexcel's technology offering and the tremendous potential impact those advanced lightweight composites will have in enabling the reduction of CO2 emissions in the environment through greater fuel efficiency and modern aircraft and other forms of transportation.

最後，我想告訴大家的是，我們的領導團隊和董事會成員本月早些時候與我們的研發團隊一起審查了開發中的新產品和流程，我們對赫氏的未來感到無比興奮。技術提供以及這些先進的輕質複合材料將透過提高燃油效率和現代飛機和其他形式的運輸來減少環境中的二氧化碳排放量產生巨大的潛在影響。

As you may remember from our comments in the past, we meet with our R&T leadership team every year. And this year, it was a pleasure to meet for the first time at our new Center of Research and Technology Excellence in Salt Lake City. While these meetings dig deep into data and the details of fiber tensile strength, modulus and the chemistry of precursors and resins, one simple fact always emerges from these technical discussions and that is our customer aligned approach to product development is a key differentiator for Hexcel.

您可能還記得我們過去的評論，我們每年都會與 R&T 領導團隊會面。今年，我們很高興在我們位於鹽湖城的新研究與技術卓越中心首次見面。雖然這些會議深入挖掘了纖維拉伸強度、模量以及前體和樹脂化學的數據和細節，但這些技術討論中總會浮現出一個簡單的事實，那就是我們與客戶保持一致的產品開發方法是赫氏的一個關鍵差異化因素。

We innovate based on the collaboration and continuous dialogue we have with our customers. When we develop new products, we know the application and customer expectations, which make us highly efficient. Our engineers and researchers have daily conversations with customers as we work closely with them to develop the next generation of lightweight solutions. These customer engagements are now deeper than ever, and we are fully aligned with their road maps as we design new lighter and stronger materials especially for improved fuel efficiency and life cycle costs.

我們的創新是基於與客戶的協作和持續對話。當我們開發新產品時，我們了解應用和客戶期望，這使我們效率很高。我們的工程師和研究人員每天與客戶進行對話，與他們密切合作開發下一代輕量級解決方案。現在，這些客戶的參與比以往任何時候都更加深入，我們完全符合他們的路線圖，因為我們設計了新的更輕、更強的材料，特別是為了提高燃油效率和生命週期成本。

We are firmly convinced that the key to improve sustainability is lightweighted that composites are a prime enabler, and Hexcel is the world's leader in providing lightweight sustainable materials for the aerospace, Space & Defense and select industrial markets.

我們堅信，提高永續性的關鍵是輕量化，複合材料是主要推動者，而赫氏是為航空航太、航太與國防以及特定工業市場提供輕質永續材料的全球領導者。

Paul, we're now ready to take questions.

保羅，我們現在準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first this morning to Matt Akers at Wells Fargo.

（操作員指示）今天早上我們首先去富國銀行的馬特·埃克斯那裡。

Maybe just to put a finer point on the margin discussion, I guess so margins down year-over-year even though sales were higher. Is most of that because of this kind of cost issue of you basically hired people ahead of the demand coming through? Or is there any sort of mix issue or anything else that sort of impacted margins for the quarter?

也許只是為了更好地討論利潤率，我想儘管銷售額較高，但利潤率仍同比下降。大部分是因為這種成本問題，你基本上是在需求出現之前就僱用了人員嗎？或者是否存在任何類型的混合問題或其他任何影響本季利潤率的問題？

Yes. I think -- good morning. It's much more to do with the gradual infrastructure and cost base that we've been building and putting in place, quite honestly, over the last several quarters, really to be ready for the really strong growth that we see, and we've just called out over the next sort of couple of years. We're running more lines, as Nick called out in his part of the comments, but perhaps they're not all efficient, they're not sort of at the utilization level individually that we would like. And we have more people, and we continue to train and upgrade that experience as we go.

是的。我想——早安。老實說，這更多地與我們在過去幾個季度中一直在建設和落實的漸進基礎設施和成本基礎有關，真正為我們看到的真正強勁的增長做好準備，我們剛剛在接下來的幾年裡呼籲。我們正在運行更多的線路，正如尼克在評論中所說的那樣，但也許它們並不都是高效的，它們的利用率水平並不符合我們想要的。我們有更多的人，我們會不斷培訓和升級這種體驗。

And so we're carrying that higher level of overhead, if you like, infrastructure in the company for the future growth, and it's going to take time to really get a top line that really pulls all that product, production and all those sales through to really drive the margins. And certainly, when you have a quarter as we have forecasted as our third quarters are, reduced by the European seasonality impact, then you see the margin headwind that we saw. It was much more of that in the third quarter than anything to do with mix.

因此，如果你願意的話，我們將承擔更高水準的管理費用，為公司未來的成長提供基礎設施，並且需要時間才能真正獲得真正拉動所有產品、生產和所有銷售的收入。真正提高利潤率。當然，當你看到我們預測的第三季受到歐洲季節性影響而減少時，你會看到我們看到的利潤率逆風。第三季的這種情況比混合方面的影響要大得多。

Okay. Understood. And then I guess some of the -- I guess the industry supply chain is you mentioned flat narrowbody year-over-year. Is any of that, I guess, driven by Hexcel supply chain you think so? Or is it more demand from your customers? And do you have any view on sort of how long that linger effect could go in 2024?

好的。明白了。然後我猜想，我猜產業供應鏈就是你提到的扁平窄體飛機。我想，您認為這些是由赫氏供應鏈驅動的嗎？還是您的客戶有更多的需求？您對 2024 年這種揮之不去的影響會持續多久有什麼看法嗎？

Yes, Matt. So basically, the challenges that the OEs are dealing with are certainly not related to Hexcel. We're in a great position with capacity and resources available to meet their growing demand and their projected growing demand. There are a few issues out there that really are limiting the ramp rate on the growth, where the OEs want to take the narrowbodies and the widebodies. And it just slowed it down a little bit, caused some inspections and reworks within that supply chain.

是的，馬特。所以基本上，營運商面臨的挑戰肯定與赫氏無關。我們處於有利地位，擁有足夠的能力和資源來滿足他們不斷增長的需求和預期不斷增長的需求。有一些問題確實限制了主機廠想要採用窄體機和寬體機的成長速度。它只是稍微減慢了速度，導致供應鏈內進行了一些檢查和返工。

And my perspective is that these will be resolved. And given the demand and the pull for those new lightweight narrowbody and widebody aircraft, the rates are going to continue to go up, and that's what we're positioning for is strong '24 and '25 build rates and growth for Hexcel.

我的觀點是這些都會被解決。考慮到對這些新型輕型窄體和寬體飛機的需求和拉力，價格將繼續上漲，這就是我們對赫氏強勁的 '24 和 '25 建造率和增長的定位。

We will next go to Gavin Parsons at UBS. One moment, gentlemen, it looks like we actually lost Mr. Parsons. We'll go next now to Ken Herbert at RBC.

接下來我們將拜訪瑞銀集團的加文‧帕森斯。先生們，有那麼一刻，我們似乎真的失去了帕森斯先生。接下來我們請聽聽加拿大皇家銀行的肯‧赫伯特 (Ken Herbert)。

Nick and Patrick, maybe just to put a finer point on the margin question. If you had sort of seen the increase in narrowbody volume that maybe been contemplated earlier in the year, would we have seen the same kind of margin impact year-over-year? Or how much of a factor was basically flat volume on the narrowbody side?

尼克和派崔克，也許只是為了更好地闡述利潤問題。如果您看到了今年早些時候可能考慮的窄體飛機銷售的成長，我們是否會看到與去年同期相同的利潤率影響？或者窄體機方面基本平坦的體積有多大影響？

Well, let me start. Clearly, increased demand on the narrowbody would have helped, but it would not have changed our position and the fact that in the environment we're in, after taking our assets down to the low point we did at the pandemic to preserve cash and to position for a strong viable future, we knowingly took out 35% of our resources in our heads.

好吧，讓我開始吧。顯然，對窄體飛機的需求增加會有所幫助，但這不會改變我們的立場，也不會改變我們所處的環境這一事實，在將我們的資產降至大流行期間的低點後，以保留現金並為了建立一個強大而可行的未來，我們特意拿出了 35% 的資源。

In today's hiring environment, with the unemployment where it is, with the pull for talent globally, we had to get ahead of the hiring, and we do that intentionally so that we can train them. And as the growth comes, we can get the efficiency back to and above 2019 levels.

在當今的招募環境中，由於失業率居高不下，隨著全球人才的吸引力，我們必須搶在招募之前，我們有意這樣做，以便我們能夠培訓他們。隨著成長的到來，我們可以使效率恢復到或高於 2019 年的水準。

And I have to tell you, the third quarter, we're seeing our efficiencies come up. And as that demand and that growth continues to pull through for Q4 and into '24 and '25, we're expecting to convert very strongly on that volume. So to answer your question, Ken, it would have an effect, but it wouldn't have negated the seasonality and the lower demand.

我必須告訴你，第三季度，我們的效率有所提升。隨著第四季度的需求和成長繼續持續到 24 和 25 年，我們預計該銷售的轉換將非常強勁。因此，肯回答你的問題，它會產生影響，但不會否定季節性和較低的需求。

Okay. And I guess, I mean, you seem to be on a fairly nice trajectory when we look at the gross margins. We can appreciate the seasonality. But was there anything else that maybe deteriorated in the quarter as you think about maybe costs in Europe or logistics or other aspects of the supply chain that maybe push you to see sort of greater inefficiency or maybe take a more sort of cautious view on sort of your own pull forward of cost to support future rate ramp?

好的。我想，我的意思是，當我們查看毛利率時，您似乎處於相當不錯的軌跡上。我們可以體會到季節性。但是，當您考慮歐洲或物流或供應鏈其他方面的成本時，本季是否還有其他事情可能惡化，這可能會促使您看到效率更低的情況，或者可能對某種情況採取更加謹慎的看法您自己的成本提前以支持未來的利率上升嗎？

I mean, absolutely nothing to make us more cautious on the future opportunity and the future ramp. Now obviously, we're cognizant of what's happening with the narrowbodies and the challenges that Nick talked to in that space. I think they're well known. And obviously, we are ready to support both Airbus and Boeing as they move the 320 and the MAX rates up, and we are certainly ready to do that, and we will not be causing any delays.

我的意思是，絕對沒有什麼能讓我們對未來的機會和未來的成長更加謹慎。現在顯然，我們已經意識到窄體飛機正在發生的事情以及尼克在該領域談到的挑戰。我認為他們很有名。顯然，我們已經準備好支持空中巴士和波音提高 320 和 MAX 的價格，我們當然已經準備好這樣做，而且我們不會造成任何延誤。

In terms of the cost, it's really about the overhead base and the overhead leverage ability. Given the volume of sales, there isn't anything specific I would call out on the cost front. It's as I was saying to Matt, it's really about that gradual buildup in our infrastructure, in our workforce ready for the clear growth ahead. And we are not going to be late for that. And so aligning those 2 things is never perfect. And so our cost base is perhaps just a little bit ahead of the sales growth, but we're going to be ready. And when that comes, we will generate the margins, and we will generate the cash.

就成本而言，實際上是關於管理費用基數和管理費用槓桿能力。考慮到銷量，我在成本方面沒有什麼具體的要求。正如我對馬特所說的那樣，這實際上是關於我們的基礎設施和勞動力的逐步建設，為未來的明顯成長做好準備。我們不會遲到。因此，協調這兩件事永遠不會是完美的。因此，我們的成本基礎可能只是略高於銷售成長，但我們會做好準備。到那時，我們將產生利潤，我們將產生現金。

We'll go next now to Myles Walton at Wolfe Research.

接下來我們將請教沃爾夫研究中心的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

Patrick or Nick, I'm not sure, but maybe just to clarify, was the margin performance in the quarter about as you expected? And then maybe just looking forward, Nick, you're talking about the growth that you're sort of building towards, is it still fair to think about a double-digit growth into next year? And then the margin profile of getting to mid-teens at $2 billion in sales, is that still on the table?

派崔克或尼克，我不確定，但也許只是為了澄清，本季的利潤率表現是否符合您的預期？然後也許只是展望未來，尼克，你正在談論你正在努力實現的成長，考慮明年兩位數的成長是否仍然公平？然後，銷售額達到 20 億美元左右的利潤率是否仍然存在？

Yes. So the margin in Q3 was close to what we expected, yes, because we probably saw the seasonal sales, or we recognized it perhaps more than it was externally recognized. So the margins were not a long way off what we expected, perhaps a little bit softer, but not a lot. Looking forward, over the next couple of years, we see strong double-digit growth for a couple of years now in front of us, with 2025 getting sort of back to where 2019 was. That should be the expectation out there.

是的。因此，第三季的利潤率接近我們的預期，是的，因為我們可能看到了季節性銷售，或者我們對它的認識可能比外部認可的更多。因此，利潤率與我們的預期相差不遠，也許稍微軟一些，但也不是很多。展望未來，我們預計未來幾年將出現強勁的兩位數成長，2025 年將回到 2019 年的水準。這應該是外界的期望。

In terms of the mid-teens margins, we're strongly going to be pushing for that, and we will get there once we line up our cost base with the right level of sales. We've got to do the training. We've got to have the infrastructure, but our ability to get to mid-teens once the revenue comes, and once -- I mean, we should be able to push past it ultimately is what I'm trying to say, Myles, back to where we were. We -- that's not going to happen tomorrow, but that's definitely the target on the table, and we're not taking that away.

就十幾歲左右的利潤率而言，我們將大力推動這一目標，一旦我們將成本基礎與適當的銷售水平保持一致，我們就會實現這一目標。我們必須進行訓練。我們必須擁有基礎設施，但是一旦收入到來，我們就有能力達到十幾歲左右，一旦——我的意思是，我們最終應該能夠超越它，這就是我想說的，邁爾斯，回到我們原來的地方。我們——這不會在明天發生，但這絕對是擺在桌面上的目標，我們不會取消它。

Got it. And just clarifying on the industrial side, I've always thought that as that business as being lower margins than the core. But it might be getting to a point where the margins -- the sales are so low that it's actually a net drag on profit. Can you just give us a color of the profitability of the Industrial business at this point in Composite Materials?

知道了。只是在工業方面澄清一下，我一直認為該業務的利潤率低於核心業務。但它可能會達到這樣一個程度：利潤率——銷售額如此之低，以至於實際上對利潤造成了淨拖累。您能為我們介紹一下複合材料工業業務目前的獲利能力嗎？

So I'll take a shot at, first, splitting it and let's talk about wind for a minute. And again, remember, the wind technology transitioned to a lower technology and one that we chose not to pursue. And that resulted in us restructuring in North America as well as China. So we're serving the wind market out of our facility in Austria and supporting Vestas and a couple of other small ones.

因此，我將首先嘗試將其分開，然後讓我們討論風。再次記住，風能技術已經轉變為一種較低的技術，我們選擇不追求這種技術。這導致我們在北美和中國進行重組。因此，我們正在奧地利的工廠為風電市場提供服務，並為維斯塔斯和其他一些小型企業提供支援。

Remember, wind is less than 2% expected of Hexcel's total revenue this year. And it is at a lower margin, a lower cost to serve, a decent return on invested capital, but a lower margin profile. On the balance of the Industrial, the automotive, the select areas that we find niches to introduce our technology and differentiated solutions, the margin really is not dilutive to Hexcel. And perhaps in some of those high-end automotive and niche applications, when we do fall off on sales a little bit because of inflationary recessionary pressures on rec or winter sports or some of those other markets, it could have a slight dilutive effect on the margins.

請記住，風電業務預計佔赫氏今年總收入的比例不到 2%。它的利潤率較低，服務成本較低，投資資本報酬率不錯，但利潤率較低。在工業、汽車以及我們找到合適的領域來引入我們的技術和差異化解決方案的平衡方面，赫氏的利潤率確實沒有被稀釋。也許在一些高端汽車和利基應用中，當我們的銷售確實因休閒或冬季運動或其他一些市場的通貨膨脹衰退壓力而略有下降時，它可能會對邊距。

We'll go next now to Gavin Parsons at UBS.

接下來我們請瑞銀集團的加文‧帕森斯 (Gavin Parsons) 發言。

Sorry about the tech issues. Apologies if I missed this, but can you talk a little bit about how much the capacity step-up is what growth rates you kind of hired ahead for there? And how much of the double-digit top line revenue growth is now already in the cost base?

對於技術問題深表歉意。如果我錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但是您能談談您提前僱用的產能提升幅度是多少嗎？兩位數的營收成長目前有多少已經計入成本基礎？

Well, first, we're continuing to bring up assets, just to roughly calibrate, you think of 2019 of as us running close to capacity, we'd never be at 100%, but think of mid-90s. And if you think about our ratio of sales today to where we were then, think of our assets being utilized at about 75%. That will give you a good proxy for where we are with respect to utilization. Some plants, that means we have some lines still down. Some plants that may mean we have a line up, but aren't running it at 100% of capacity, meaning we may have more positions that we could turn on, which make it much less efficient, but the right thing to do so that we don't overbuild inventory and to optimize our cash position going forward.

好吧，首先，我們將繼續增加資產，只是為了進行粗略校準，你認為 2019 年我們接近產能，我們永遠不會達到 100%，但想想 90 年代中期。如果你考慮我們今天的銷售額與當時的銷售額比率，就會想到我們的資產利用率約為 75%。這將為您提供一個很好的代表，讓您了解我們在利用率方面的情況。有些工廠，這意味著我們還有一些生產線尚未完工。有些工廠可能意味著我們有一條生產線，但並未以 100% 的產能運行，這意味著我們可能有更多可以啟動的位置，這使得效率大大降低，但這樣做是正確的我們不會過度增加庫存，並會優化未來的現金狀況。

So from an asset base, in the fiber specifically, we have brought in a lot of assets, a lot of resources over the last 3 to 6 months. And that fibers is one of the big drivers within Hexcel from a cash, from a profitability generation. And there, I'm not going to say we don't have to add a few people, but basically, most of our lines are running now where we see them for the next 6, 12, maybe even a little bit longer. So we feel like we're in a great position there.

因此，從資產基礎來看，特別是在光纖領域，我們在過去 3 到 6 個月內引進了大量資產、大量資源。纖維是赫氏公司現金、獲利的主要驅動力之一。在那裡，我並不是說我們不必增加一些人，但基本上，我們的大部分線路現在都在運行，我們可以看到它們在接下來的 6、12、甚至可能更長的時間內運行。所以我們覺得我們在那裡處於有利地位。

Other plants depends on the technology, whether it's prepreg or blending or core engineered products, there may be select adds here and there. But overall, we're entering -- we're going to enter 2024 in a very strong position to deliver on that demand.

其他工廠取決於技術，無論是預浸料、混合還是核心工程產品，可能都會有一些精選的添加物。但總體而言，進入 2024 年，我們將處於非常有利的地位來滿足這一需求。

Great. I appreciate that detail. And then on buybacks, is your anticipation there that as your cash flow strengthens, you'll do something regular? Or was that an opportunistic purchase in the quarter?

偉大的。我很欣賞這個細節。然後在回購方面，您是否預期隨著現金流的增強，您會定期做一些事情？或者說這是本季的機會主義購買？

Well, we constantly look at our capital structure. And we're back into the range where we like to operate our net debt leverage ratio in the [1.8] region. So we review that with the Board on a regular basis with respect to what opportunities are there for collaborations? What areas do we have with respect to internal investment? And then what's our opportunities with respect to dividend strategy and share buyback? So it really was an opportunity for us to undilute what we issued in 2023. Clearly, given our leverage position and our increased cash flow forecast, we're going to be looking at that much more actively going forward.

嗯，我們不斷關注我們的資本結構。我們又回到了我們希望在 [1.8] 區域操作淨債務槓桿率的範圍。因此，我們定期與董事會進行審查，看看有哪些合作機會？我們在內部投資方面有哪些領域？那麼我們在股利策略和股票回購方面有哪些機會？因此，這對我們來說確實是一次稀釋 2023 年發行債券的機會。顯然，考慮到我們的槓桿狀況和現金流量預測的增加，我們將更積極地考慮未來的情況。

Go next now to Pete Skibitski at Alembic Global.

現在請前往 Alembic Global 的 Pete Skibitski。

I just wonder if you could kind of give us a sense of your outlook for Space & Defense as we head into next year because the last couple of quarters, you've been running really strongly there, and the trends seem pretty positive. You got CH-53K coming through the pipeline pretty good there. Can you grow -- I mean you may be up double digits this year in Space & Defense. I'm wondering if you can do it again next year.

我只是想知道，當我們進入明年時，您是否可以讓我們了解您對太空與國防的前景，因為過去幾個季度，您在該領域的表現非常強勁，而且趨勢似乎非常積極。 CH-53K 已經順利通過管道。你能成長嗎——我的意思是你今年在太空與國防領域可能會取得兩位數的成長。我想知道明年你是否可以再做一次。

Yes. I mean, we've stepped up. I mean I think last quarter was a record quarter, all-time record quarter for Space & Defense with the seasonality. We came off that a little bit in the third quarter, but we've seen sustained strength in that market. And we've really had a couple of years with very high, very strong growth.

是的。我的意思是，我們已經邁出了一步。我的意思是，我認為上個季度是創紀錄的季度，是太空與國防領域季節性創紀錄的季度。我們在第三季略有下降，但我們看到該市場持續強勁。我們確實經歷了幾年非常高、非常強勁的成長。

Now it depends what time frame you're looking at. I mean, if you kind of look over the next 2 to 3 years, we're going to see a lot of growth over that period. The F-35 for us still has room to grow. The CH-53K is going to grow substantially. There are European programs, which is strong, and we're across such a broad range with the military budgets moving the direction they are.

現在這取決於您正在考慮的時間範圍。我的意思是，如果你展望未來 2 到 3 年，我們將看到這段時期的大量成長。 F-35對我們來說還有成長空間。 CH-53K 將大幅成長。歐洲有一些強有力的計劃，而且我們的範圍如此廣泛，軍事預算正在朝著它們的方向發展。

Now I'm not going to say it's going to be double digits every year, but over the 2, 3 years, Space & Defense is going to continue to be a very strong sector for Hexcel, and I'm confident in further growth.

現在我不會說每年都會達到兩位數，但在未來的兩三年內，太空與國防將繼續成為赫氏的一個非常強大的部門，我對進一步增長充滿信心。

Any risk to defense program revenue in the next couple of years that you see in the past? Is it just budgets passing on time or any other risks that we should think about?

您過去認為未來幾年國防計畫收入面臨任何風險嗎？這只是預算的流逝，還是我們應該考慮的其他風險？

I mean I don't want to be complacent. There's always budgetary risks. But right now, I think this is one of the strongest sort of periods, healthiest periods, if you like, for Space & Defense and looking forward we've seen for a long time. So as confident as we can be without absolute guarantees. We see growth in the next couple of years in Space & Defense.

我的意思是我不想自滿。預算風險始終存在。但現在，我認為這是太空與國防領域最強勁、最健康的時期之一，也是我們長期以來所看到的。因此，在沒有絕對保證的情況下，我們可以充滿信心。我們預計未來幾年太空與國防領域將出現成長。

We'll go next now to Kristine Liwag at Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們請摩根士丹利的克里斯汀‧利瓦格 (Kristine Liwag) 發言。

Great. Nick, and Pat, it's clear from your commentary that you've invested in headcount and infrastructure ahead of the OEM, but can you provide an update on which specific production rates you can support today for the 737, A320, 787 and A350?

偉大的。尼克和帕特，從您的評論中可以清楚地看出，您已經在OEM 之前投資了人員和基礎設施，但是您能否提供最新信息，說明您今天可以支持737、A320、787 和A350 的具體生產率？

Well, first, I'll tell you, we're aligned with our customers, and we're flexible and going to continue to stay aligned. If you look at the -- let's start with Boeing on the MAX, we're in the low 30s. And clearly, Boeing is working hard to transition up to 38. And we have that capacity, and we have -- we'll share more on what specifically we're putting in our 2024 plan, but we'll be prepared to do that, as well as hitting 50 in the 2025, 2026 timeframe.

好吧，首先，我會告訴你，我們與客戶保持一致，而且我們很靈活，並將繼續保持一致。如果你看看——讓我們從波音的 MAX 開始，我們處於 30 多歲的水平。顯然，波音正在努力過渡到 38 架。我們有這種能力，而且我們將分享更多有關 2024 年計劃中具體內容的內容，但我們將做好準備，並在2025 年、2026 年期間達到50 個。

787, we're at 4 to 5, and clearly, Boeing intends to go to 10 by '25, '26 timeframe. So we're -- there's going to be a gradual ramp-up there. I'll let you pick the number for '24 and getting to the 10 in '26. But you could estimate a pretty linear stable transition, which is what the OEs have done for the last several years when they're ramping up rates.

787，我們的數量是 4 到 5，很明顯，波音打算在 25 年、26 年的時間範圍內達到 10 架。所以我們——那裡將會逐漸增加。我會讓你選擇 24 年的號碼，並在 26 年選擇 10 號。但你可以估計一個相當線性的穩定過渡，這就是營運商在過去幾年提高利率時所做的事情。

If you look at Airbus, we're in the mid-50s. And again, I'm looking in total for the year, I'm not looking at Q3. We were much lower than mid-50s in Q3, with a ramp rate up to 75 in 2026. So Airbus really is not giving specific milestones on the incremental positions in '24 or '25. So again, if you just draw a straight line along that curve, we'll be aligned with that, and perhaps we'll share more when we provide 2024 guidance.

如果你看看空中巴士公司，我們已經是 50 年代中期了。再說一遍，我關注的是今年的整體情況，而不是第三季。我們在第三季的成長率遠低於 50 年代中期，到 2026 年，成長率將達到 75。因此，空中巴士確實沒有給出關於 24 或 25 年增量位置的具體里程碑。所以，如果你只是沿著這條曲線畫一條直線，我們就會與之保持一致，也許我們會在提供 2024 年指導時分享更多資訊。

And the A350, we're at 6. Airbus has been candid that they're moving to 9 by the end of '25. And again, it's a great program for us. We have great shipset content, and we're looking forward to continued widebody order intakes, which have ramped up a lot of momentum on the widebodies based on the need for improved efficiency and longer routes because of some of the pattern changes. So that kind of gives you a little color on where we are versus what we're positioning for in the '24, '25, '26 timeframe.

A350 的數量為 6。空中巴士公司坦言他們將在 25 年底前將數量增加到 9。再說一次，這對我們來說是一個很棒的計劃。我們擁有豐富的船組內容，我們期待持續的寬體訂單接收，由於一些模式的變化，基於提高效率和更長航線的需求，這已經增加了寬體飛機的大量動力。因此，這可以讓您對我們在 24 年、25 年、26 年時間範圍內的定位與定位有一些了解。

And maybe a follow-up question on wind. Pat, you mentioned that wind transitioned to a lower technology that Hexcel decided not to pursue. So how much revenue is left in wind in Austria? And how much more of a step down do you expect?

也許還有一個關於風的後續問題。帕特，您提到風能轉變為赫氏決定不再追求的較低技術。那麼奧地利的風能收入還剩下多少呢？您預計還會下降多少？

Well, let me take that. Again, our largest wind customer is Vestas -- has been Vestas. Vestas has been the market leader, and we've done business with them for 20 -- probably 20-plus years with plants positioned to support them very well. They were vertically integrated. They produced their own blades. They had differentiated technology, and that model worked for many years. Vestas decided that they needed to refocus their business and they decided blades were not core, so they went more to an outsourcing model, which pushed the technology more to a commodity type infused glass prepreg infused material, not a prepreg, but an infused material. And that really didn't fit our strategy going forward.

好吧，讓我接受。同樣，我們最大的風電客戶是維斯塔斯——一直是維斯塔斯。維斯塔斯一直是市場領導者，我們與他們開展業務已經有 20 年了——可能有 20 多年了，我們的工廠能夠為他們提供很好的支援。它們是垂直整合的。他們生產自己的刀片。他們擁有差異化的技術，而且這種模式多年來一直有效。維斯塔斯決定他們需要重新調整業務重點，並認為葉片不是核心，因此他們更多地採用外包模式，這將技術更多地推向商品類型注入玻璃預浸料注入材料，而不是預浸料，而是注入材料。這確實不符合我們未來的策略。

So the new blades that are being -- the new wind turbines that are being developed by Vestas and many others, utilize outsourced blades made utilizing commodity-type technologies the way we define that space. If you look at our current business, we've got a nice book of business, the legacy business, which is served out of Austria, serving Vestas, Europe.

因此，維斯塔斯和許多其他公司正在開發的新型風力渦輪機的新葉片，採用了利用商品型技術製造的外包葉片，就像我們定義該空間的方式一樣。如果你看看我們目前的業務，我們有一本很好的業務手冊，即遺留業務，該業務在奧地利以外為歐洲的維斯塔斯提供服務。

And again, there's some challenges in that market related to inflationary pressures, regulatory pressures that have softened demand, but we still have our positions, and we think there's a long tail on that demand profile that will go on for several years, although at a much reduced run rate level from where Hexcel was 2, 3, 4 years ago.

再說一遍，該市場面臨一些與通膨壓力、監管壓力相關的挑戰，這些挑戰導致需求疲軟，但我們仍然有自己的立場，我們認為這種需求狀況存在長尾效應，將持續數年，儘管在與2、3、4 年前相比，赫氏的運行率水準大大降低。

We'll go next now to John McNulty at BMO Capital Markets.

接下來我們請 BMO 資本市場的 John McNulty 發言。

So I guess the first one is just on the implied fourth quarter range, which is actually -- it's pretty broad. I mean, it's toward the end of the year. But I guess, can you help us to understand what puts you at the low end of that range, which is implied about $0.42 or so? And what would put you at the higher end of the range at $0.56? Can you help us to think through the puts and takes there?

所以我想第一個只是在隱含的第四季範圍內，這實際上是相當廣泛的。我的意思是，快到年底了。但我想，您能否幫助我們了解是什麼使您處於該範圍的低端（隱含約 0.42 美元左右）？怎樣才能達到 0.56 美元的上限？你能幫助我們思考那裡的看跌期權和索取期權嗎？

Yes. I mean, the biggest put and take is clearly the top line, John. I mean, we've obviously got the midpoint at $1.8 and $1.87, as you can see. And I guess that's where we're really focusing, and that's what we're targeting to deliver for the year. But we're also recognizing there is uncertainty in the aerospace supply chain right now, and that could pop to the positive this quarter if things suddenly align and we get a pull-through material to support the ramp rates that we know the OEMs are trying to do.

是的。我的意思是，最大的看跌期權顯然是頂線，約翰。我的意思是，正如您所看到的，我們顯然得到了 1.8 美元和 1.87 美元的中點。我想這就是我們真正關注的重點，也是我們今年的目標。但我們也認識到，目前航空航天供應鏈存在不確定性，如果情況突然調整，並且我們獲得拉動材料來支持我們知道原始設備製造商正在嘗試的爬坡率，那麼本季度的情況可能會變得積極。去做。

But likewise, as we've seen several times over the last couple of years, there are bumps and hiccups in this aerospace supply chain as the world sort of starts to normalize and get back to where we were prepandemic in sort of an efficient flowing industry.

但同樣，正如我們在過去幾年中多次看到的那樣，隨著世界開始正常化並回到大流行前的高效流動行業，航空航天供應鏈中也出現了一些坎坷和小問題。 。

So we're focusing really on the midpoint as our target to deliver, but we've left the range wide because we do -- unfortunately, we recognize that there are still risks and challenges out there. Now that could fall in our favor, but we certainly wanted to recognize that there could be headwinds.

因此，我們真正關注的是中點作為我們要實現的目標，但我們已經將範圍擴大了，因為我們確實 - 不幸的是，我們認識到仍然存在風險和挑戰。現在這可能對我們有利，但我們當然想認識到可能存在阻力。

Okay. And just to be clear, would you say the midpoint of the range reflects kind of status quo on the supply chain or modest improvement? Or I guess, how should we think about that?

好的。需要澄清的是，您認為該範圍的中點反映了供應鏈的現狀還是適度的改善？或者我想，我們該如何思考這個問題？

I would -- well, it certainly is -- it's not a seasonal -- it's not another Q3 season. It's a return to sort of a more normal run rate of sales, not seasonally impacted. And then, yes, hopefully, it's the current, if not less, slightly less of supply chain issues. But more or less where we are today without the seasonality is how I would describe it.

我會——嗯，這當然是——這不是季節性的——這不是另一個第三季。這是恢復到更正常的銷售速度，不受季節性影響。然後，是的，希望這就是當前的供應鏈問題，如果不是更少的話，也稍微減少一些。但或多或少我們今天的處境是沒有季節性的，這就是我對它的描述。

Got it. And then maybe just as a follow-up question, you spoke to pulling back on inventory and a bigger focus there. And I think you'd mentioned a $20 million sequential improvement. I guess, how much farther do you think you can pull back on those rains while still being ready for what potentially is a bigger ramp-up from some of your customers as you look to 2024?

知道了。然後也許只是作為一個後續問題，您談到了減少庫存並更加關注那裡。我想您已經提到了 2000 萬美元的連續改進。我想，您認為在 2024 年，您可以將降雨量減少多少，同時仍為一些客戶可能出現的更大成長做好準備？

Yes. So the $20 million sequential pullback was specifically on raw materials. Overall inventory was down about $4 million. So we saw a little bit of growth in other areas, but there was a reduction, and obviously, the starting point is raw materials. We will continue to be aggressive and disciplined around inventory. I think we've spoken to it a few times. The real metric we're looking at is the relative days of inventory that we hold.

是的。因此，2000 萬美元的連續回調專門針對原材料。整體庫存減少了約 400 萬美元。所以我們看到其他領域有一點成長，但也有減少，顯然，起點是原料。我們將繼續在庫存方面保持積極和嚴格的態度。我想我們已經談過幾次了。我們關注的真正指標是我們持有的庫存的相對天數。

And so the first objective is to allow our sales to grow certainly into next year and beyond that and hold this level of sort of dollar inventory. Now we will look to squeeze it in the fourth quarter. I think there's some opportunity to do that. But most importantly, it's really holding this level of inventory as our sales grow and essentially improving the days holding fairly significantly over the coming sort of periods.

因此，第一個目標是讓我們的銷售額在明年及以後肯定會成長，並維持這種美元庫存水準。現在我們希望在第四季壓縮它。我認為有一些機會可以做到這一點。但最重要的是，隨著我們銷售的成長，它確實保持了這一水平的庫存，並在未來一段時間內顯著改善了庫存天數。

We'll go next now to Scott Deuschle at Deutsche Bank.

接下來我們請來德意志銀行的斯科特‧德施勒 (Scott Deuschle)。

Nick, is there any opportunity to open the door with OEMs to discuss the prospect of getting some better price given the inflation that's out there, kind of like some of the other OE suppliers have been able to achieve? Or is that conversation ultimately a nonstarter given that you're still generating some nice profitability here?

尼克，是否有機會與原始設備製造商敞開大門，討論考慮到當前的通貨膨脹，獲得更好的價格的前景，就像其他一些原始設備製造商已經能夠實現的那樣？或者考慮到你仍然在這裡產生了一些不錯的盈利能力，這次談話最終是不可能的嗎？

No. So I think our team does a great job on getting price and value pricing our products for what it does for our customers. Remember, in a lot of the commercial aerospace programs, we have long-term agreements where we have indices and formula that help protect both us in inflationary, increased cost scenarios or raw material inputs, and it protects our customers where it's declining. So there tend to be a lag. But overall, we constantly look to help our customers with their productivity initiatives.

不。所以我認為我們的團隊在為我們的客戶提供產品的價格和價值定價方面做得很好。請記住，在許多商業航空航天項目中，我們簽訂了長期協議，其中的指數和公式有助於在通貨膨脹、成本增加或原材料投入方面保護我們雙方，並在原材料投入下降時保護我們的客戶。所以往往會有滯後。但總的來說，我們不斷尋求幫助客戶實施生產力計劃。

We do that through driving productivity through our systems and identifying new opportunities to leverage our growth. So I'd say we certainly have other areas that aren't on long-term contract, and our team worked those very hard, especially in the Industrial segment and some other smaller niche areas where we are able to get price based on the environment we're in today.

我們透過我們的系統提高生產力並尋找新的機會來促進我們的成長來實現這一目標。所以我想說，我們當然還有其他沒有長期合約的領域，我們的團隊非常努力地工作，特別是在工業領域和其他一些較小的利基領域，我們能夠根據環境獲得價格我們今天在。

We'll go next now to Gautam Khanna at TD Cowen.

接下來我們將採訪 TD Cowen 的高塔姆·卡納 (Gautam Khanna)。

I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit about the components of the implied Q4 free cash flow. And is there any efforts underway to maybe make it a little more linear because last couple of years would have been pretty back-end loaded?

我想知道您是否可以簡單談談隱含的第四季度自由現金流的組成部分。是否正在採取任何措施使其變得更加線性，因為過去幾年後端負載相當大？

I would say, historically, for better or worse, Gautam, our cash flow tends to be back-end loaded. It's sort of the flavor of our business. In terms of Q4 this year, it's obviously going to be driven by an income number, which we're going to push to drive to the guided EPS. We're going to manage working capital tightly, as I was just saying. I think there's some opportunity around inventory.

我想說，從歷史上看，無論好壞，高塔姆，我們的現金流往往是後端負載的。這就是我們生意的風格。就今年第四季而言，顯然將受到收入數據的推動，我們將推動該數據達到指導每股收益。正如我剛才所說，我們將嚴格管理營運資金。我認為庫存方面存在一些機會。

We will drive receivables collections very strongly as we always do in the fourth quarter, and we will manage payables. So it's really just about sensible cash discipline. We're managing capital. As we've called out several times, we don't have sort of huge capacity requirements. We continue to bring up lines and to reutilize existing assets on the whole. And we'll see that again in the fourth quarter and into next year. So we believe -- I mean, we did virtually $100 million Q4 last year. We believe we can -- we will deliver that again this year.

我們將一如既往地在第四季大力推動應收帳款催收，並管理應付帳款。所以這其實只是明智的現金紀律。我們正在管理資本。正如我們多次指出的那樣，我們沒有巨大的容量需求。我們繼續增加生產線並重新利用整體現有資產。我們將在第四季度和明年再次看到這一點。所以我們相信——我的意思是，我們去年第四季的營收幾乎達到 1 億美元。我們相信我們可以—今年我們將再次實現這一目標。

And just I was curious also if this year -- this quarter had a little bit of dampening on the margins on the hiring ahead and the like. Maybe if you could just describe some of the onetime things this year that -- like tooling, for example, I think that was called out in prior quarters. Is there anything else that you view as nonrecurring that kind of make the comparisons a little easier for next year, besides what we discussed in Q3?

我也很好奇，今年這個季度的招募等利潤率是否會下降。也許你可以描述今年的一些一次性的事情——例如工具，我認為這在前幾個季度就已經被提及了。除了我們在第三季討論的內容之外，您認為還有什麼是非經常性的，可以讓明年的比較變得更容易嗎？

There really were not material one-timers. The hiring and the efficiency improvements that we're driving in the plants and bringing people in, again, I think we've shared that some of the positions in our fiber business take 9 months to a year to get to a minimum efficiency level for an operator to be able to work alone on the line.

確實沒有物質一次性的東西。我們在工廠中推動的招聘和效率改進以及引進人員，我想我們已經分享過，我們纖維業務中的一些職位需要 9 個月到一年的時間才能達到最低效率水平一名操作員能夠單獨在線上工作。

I would say there's some added effort going on with the CH-53K ramp and the first articles. And that program is really just starting to ramp up. So we're clearly not as efficient in the engineered structures area there, as we will be as those first articles are complete, the qualification is complete, and we streamline the deliveries to our customer.

我想說的是，CH-53K 坡道和第一篇文章還需要一些額外的努力。該計劃實際上才剛開始啟動。因此，我們在工程結構領域顯然沒有那麼高效，但隨著第一篇文章的完成、資格認證的完成，我們將提高向客戶的交付效率。

Other than that, we continue to work hard on recruiting and finding top talent. And the team has been very successful, but it's hard work, and it takes a little bit longer. And the attrition is a little bit higher than it had been prepandemic, and you have to build all that in. And again, when you're full source for key programs, you can't be sure. And that's really what drove us to make sure we're not short and we have that capacity in place. So we've talked about that. Other than that, there really are no other one-timers that we're going at and attacking other than operational excellence and efficiency.

除此之外，我們繼續努力招募和尋找頂尖人才。而且團隊非常成功，但是工作很辛苦，而且需要更長的時間。而且人員流失比大流行前要高一些，你必須把所有這些都考慮在內。同樣，當你擁有關鍵項目的全部資源時，你無法確定。這確實促使我們確保我們不短缺並且我們擁有適當的能力。我們已經討論過了。除此之外，除了卓越營運和效率之外，我們確實沒有其他一次性目標。

We'll go back to now to Sheila Kahyaoglu at Jefferies.

我們現在回到 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

So maybe first question on Defense & Space, really good performance there on the top line. Can you maybe talk about the profitability within Defense & Space business as you ramp on some of these programs and their delta in space there?

所以也許第一個問題是關於國防和航太的，在營收方面的表現確實很好。您能否談談國防與航太業務在推進其中一些項目及其在太空中的增量時的盈利能力？

Yes. Sheila. I mean, Space & Defense is very similar to Commercial Aero in terms of its profile of profitability. It contains a fair amount of Hexcel carbon fiber. And as we've called out before pulling through Hexcel carbon fiber in a mix of sales is good. So we generate good earnings, good margins. We have quite a lot of engineered core and honeycomb in some of our military applications, all the way through to the technology work, there's a business we acquired in early 2019. So overall, the profitability profile with those strong sales is good, Sheila.

是的。希拉。我的意思是，就獲利能力而言，航太與國防與商業航空非常相似。它含有相當數量的赫氏碳纖維。正如我們之前指出的那樣，赫氏碳纖維的混合銷售情況良好。因此，我們創造了良好的收入和利潤。我們在一些軍事應用中擁有相當多的工程核心和蜂窩結構，一直到技術工作，我們在 2019 年初收購了一項業務。所以總的來說，希拉，這些強勁銷售的盈利狀況很好。

Great. And then maybe, Nick, one for you. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned investing in new programs years in advance of them coming to market. Can you talk about how that could manifest itself in your P&L?

偉大的。尼克，也許，也有一款適合你。在您準備好的發言中，您提到在新項目上市前幾年就對其進行了投資。您能談談這如何在您的損益表中反映出來嗎？

Yes. So -- boy, there's so many areas and having just gone through our R&T review, I can tell you, from a performance standpoint, we have several initiatives related to our fibers and the efficiency of our lines and the mechanical performance and the throughput, which, as you know, we have many lines and we replicate that. So it translates into a big opportunity and a big boost for Hexcel.

是的。所以，天哪，有很多領域，剛完成我們的 R&T 審查，我可以告訴你，從性能的角度來看，我們有幾項與我們的纖維、生產線效率、機械性能和吞吐量相關的舉措，如您所知，我們有很多產品線，我們會複製它們。因此，這對赫氏來說是一個巨大的機會和巨大的推動力。

So our improvements, our initiatives are certainly performance based, but they're also processing based. How do we help our customers process materials so that they can lay down materials faster, they can cure them faster, and ultimately drive to a lower life cycle cost and a better efficiency for them.

因此，我們的改進、我們的舉措當然是基於效能的，但它們也是基於處理的。我們如何幫助客戶加工材料，以便他們能夠更快地鋪設材料、更快地固化材料，並最終降低生命週期成本並提高效率。

So there's not an area within our portfolio, whether you're talking about fibers or resin systems or prepregs or infusion products or other new technologies that were not really ready to disclose yet are being worked aggressively with our customers. And again, there's a lot of pull for the improved performance, the improved throughput and the improved cost effectiveness.

因此，我們的產品組合中沒有一個領域，無論您是在談論纖維、樹脂系統、預浸料、灌注產品或其他尚未真正準備好披露但正在與我們的客戶積極合作的新技術。同樣，提高效能、提高吞吐量和提高成本效益也有很大的推動力。

And it looks like we do have time for one more question this morning. We'll take that now from Michael Ciarmoli at Truist.

看來今天早上我們還有時間再問一個問題。我們現在將從 Truist 的 Michael Ciarmoli 那裡得到這一點。

I don't know, Nick or Patrick, but as we think about sort of the margins and the capacity additions, you're not going to give guidance here for '24. But is this excess overhead in terms of adding capacity and labor? Is that going to be a drag in the '24 as well? I mean, presumably, if you -- rates are increasing and you got to have more additions next year, I mean, do we have to look more out to '25 or '26 by the time you get to that kind of stated margin? I mean, it looks like, I guess, Streets got you at 15.5% margins next year. And just thinking about supply chain challenges and what we just saw here, just -- should we expect a little bit of a headwind in the next year as well?

我不知道，尼克或帕特里克，但當我們考慮某種利潤和產能增加時，你不會在這裡給出 24 年的指導。但這是否是增加產能和勞動力的額外開銷？這也會成為24世紀的拖累嗎？我的意思是，大概，如果你——利率在增加，明年你必須有更多的增加，我的意思是，當你達到那種規定的利潤時，我們是否必須更多地關注“25”或“26”？我的意思是，我猜，Streets 明年的利潤率為 15.5%。想想供應鏈挑戰以及我們剛剛在這裡看到的情況，我們是否應該預計明年也會遇到一些逆風？

I think -- I mean, as I said, I think to Myles earlier, I mean we're still confident to target the mid-teens margins as we build our revenue. Now lining up, as you're alluding to, our cost base with the top line and getting those 2 things into sync and you kind of tailor into that some of the inflationary pressures that we certainly saw this year around energy, which has certainly been a headwind and perhaps a little bit of labor above the norm, but I wouldn't know to play the labor part. But we remain confident in the general outlook that we are going to get to those mid-teens margins. We are going to generate a lot of cash over the next 2, 3 years, as Nick called out in his part of the script, is going to sort of allow a lot of capital deployment opportunities, which we would look to do as wisely and smartly as we can.

我認為——我的意思是，正如我之前所說的，我認為邁爾斯之前，我的意思是，我們仍然有信心在增加收入的同時將利潤率目標定在十幾歲左右。現在，正如您所提到的，我們的成本基礎與營收保持一致，並使這兩件事保持同步，您就可以適應今年我們在能源方面確實看到的一些通膨壓力，這肯定是逆風，或許還有一點超出正常水準的勞動，但我不知道要扮演勞動的角色。但我們對整體前景仍然充滿信心，即我們將達到十幾歲左右的利潤率。正如尼克在劇本中所說，我們將在未來兩三年內產生大量現金，這將提供大量資本部署機會，我們希望明智地做到這一點，並且盡可能聰明地。

So we will manage quarter-by-quarter. You're absolutely right. We're not going to guide here to 2024, but we remain optimistic, very optimistic on the general outlook.

所以我們將按季度進行管理。你是絕對正確的。我們不會指導 2024 年，但我們仍然樂觀，對整體前景非常樂觀。

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude the Hexcel Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. We'd like to thank you all so much for joining us today and wish you all a great remainder of your day. Goodbye.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，赫氏 2023 年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。我們非常感謝大家今天加入我們，並祝福大家有個愉快的一天。再見。