Hexcel Corp (HXL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Hexcel First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Patrick Winterlich, Chief Financial Officer, you may begin your conference.

    早上好。我叫 Rob,今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時,我想歡迎大家參加 Hexcel 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)謝謝。首席財務官 Patrick Winterlich,您可以開始會議了。

  • Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

    Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

  • Thanks, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Hexcel Corporation's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Before beginning, let me cover the formalities. I want to remind everyone about the safe harbor provisions related to any forward-looking statements we may make during the course of this call. Certain statements contained in this call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. They involve estimates, assumptions, judgments and uncertainties caused by a variety of factors that could cause future actual results or outcomes to differ materially from our forward-looking statements today. Such factors are detailed in the company's SEC filings and last night's news release.

    謝謝,羅布。大家,早安。歡迎來到赫氏公司 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。在開始之前,讓我介紹一下手續。我想提醒大家注意與我們在本次電話會議期間可能做出的任何前瞻性陳述相關的安全港條款。本次電話會議中包含的某些陳述可能構成 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。它們涉及估計、假設、判斷和由各種因素引起的不確定性,可能導致未來的實際結果或結果有所不同實質上來自我們今天的前瞻性陳述。這些因素在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件和昨晚的新聞稿中有詳細說明。

  • A replay of this call will be available on the Investor Relations page of our website. Lastly, this call is being recorded by Hexcel Corporation and is copyrighted material. It cannot be recorded or rebroadcast without our express permission. Your participation on this call constitutes your consent to that request.

    本次電話會議的重播將在我們網站的投資者關係頁面上提供。最後,此通話由 Hexcel Corporation 錄製,是受版權保護的材料。未經我們明確許可,不得錄製或轉播。您參與此電話會議即表示您同意該請求。

  • With me today are Nick Stanage, our Chairman, CEO and President; and Kurt Goddard, our Vice President of Investor Relations. The purpose of the call is to review our first quarter 2023 results detailed in our news release issued yesterday. Now let me turn the call over to Nick.

    今天和我在一起的是我們的董事長、首席執行官兼總裁 Nick Stanage;和我們的投資者關係副總裁 Kurt Goddard。此次電話會議的目的是回顧我們昨天發布的新聞稿中詳述的 2023 年第一季度業績。現在讓我把電話轉給尼克。

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Thanks, Patrick. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today as we share our first quarter 2023 results. Our first quarter results reflect a strong recovery in demand with overall sales up 18% year-over-year, bolstered by a 30% increase in Commercial Aerospace sales. We delivered strong margin leverage on the increased production volumes, leading to a robust operating income for the first quarter. The strong demand for new aircraft is clear with a combined backlog for Airbus and Boeing now at roughly 12,600 aircraft. Airline orders are increasing for new, lightweight, composite-intensive planes to replace older, less fuel-efficient fleets and to meet growth in passenger demand. Indications are that domestic air travel has not stopped accelerating in recent months despite inflation, and now many expect that passenger demand could recover to 2019 levels by the end of this year as China reopens.

    謝謝,帕特里克。大家早上好,感謝您今天加入我們,分享我們 2023 年第一季度的業績。我們第一季度的業績反映了需求的強勁復甦,在商業航空航天銷售額增長 30% 的推動下,整體銷售額同比增長 18%。我們對增加的產量提供了強大的利潤槓桿,從而導致第一季度的營業收入強勁。對新飛機的強勁需求顯而易見,目前空客和波音的積壓訂單總和約為 12,600 架。航空公司對新型、輕型、複合材料密集型飛機的訂單正在增加,以取代舊的、燃油效率較低的機隊,並滿足乘客需求的增長。有跡象表明,儘管通貨膨脹,但近幾個月國內航空旅行並未停止加速,現在許多人預計,隨著中國重新開放,客運需求可能會在今年年底恢復到 2019 年的水平。

  • International air travel is also coming back strongly, including both leisure and business and is recovering more quickly than many had expected. During the first quarter of 2023 alone, there have been 6 different widebody orders and options announced from Asia, Middle East and Europe, for a total of 215 widebody aircraft for Airbus and Boeing. Announced orders or options for narrow bodies, including the Airbus A320neo family, the A220 and the Boeing 737 MAX remains strong and steady at 464 aircraft in the first quarter.

    國際航空旅行也強勁回歸,包括休閒和商務旅行,而且恢復速度比許多人預期的要快。僅在 2023 年第一季度,亞洲、中東和歐洲就宣布了 6 份不同的寬體飛機訂單和選擇,空客和波音共計 215 架寬體飛機。空客 A320neo 系列、A220 和波音 737 MAX 等窄體飛機的已宣布訂單或選擇在第一季度保持強勁且穩定,為 464 架飛機。

  • We remain aligned with our customers and ready to support their growing demand. We recognize, though, that there are broader challenges in the aerospace industry relating to supply chain constraints, labor shortages and workforce and experience, and we are staying vigilant and agile in order to provide support as required to our customers. Yet while our optimism may be tempered by these factors, we could not be more pleased to start 2023 with such positive momentum. Our confidence is strong as we reaffirm our full year 2023 guidance that we provided in January.

    我們與客戶保持一致,隨時準備支持他們不斷增長的需求。不過,我們認識到,航空航天業在供應鏈限制、勞動力短缺以及勞動力和經驗方面存在更廣泛的挑戰,我們將保持警惕和敏捷,以便為我們的客戶提供所需的支持。然而,儘管我們的樂觀情緒可能會受到這些因素的影響,但我們非常高興以如此積極的勢頭開啟 2023 年。當我們重申我們在 1 月份提供的 2023 年全年指導方針時,我們充滿信心。

  • Now let me highlight some of the results, and Patrick will then provide more detail on the numbers. Commercial Aerospace sales of $285 million increased 30% compared to the first quarter of 2022, led by growth in the Airbus A350 and A320neo programs. Other Commercial Aerospace increased more than 23% for the first quarter on expanding business jet demand. The outlook for narrowbodies, widebodies and business jets is extremely encouraging. They are all growing and creating further demand for more Hexcel composite material.

    現在讓我重點介紹一些結果,然後帕特里克將提供有關數字的更多詳細信息。商業航空航天銷售額為 2.85 億美元,與 2022 年第一季度相比增長了 30%,這主要得益於空中客車 A350 和 A320neo 項目的增長。由於公務機需求的擴大,第一季度其他商用航空航天業務增長超過 23%。窄體機、寬體機和公務機的前景非常令人鼓舞。它們都在增長並創造對更多 Hexcel 複合材料的進一步需求。

  • Space & Defense sales of $126 million increased 7.6% in constant currency with growth across a number of platforms globally, including fixed-wing aircraft and both military and civilian rotorcraft. We see a period of increased space and defense spending, including Europe and Asia Pacific, which for the first quarter of 2023 represented approximately 1/3 of our total Space & Defense sales.

    航天與國防銷售額為 1.26 億美元,按固定匯率計算增長 7.6%,全球多個平台均出現增長,包括固定翼飛機以及軍用和民用旋翼機。我們看到包括歐洲和亞太地區在內的空間和國防支出增加,2023 年第一季度約占我們空間和國防總銷售額的 1/3。

  • Total Industrial sales of $47 million decreased about 9% in constant currency due to lower wind energy sales that were partially offset by sales growth and recreation, automotive and general industrial markets. Marine continues as an emerging growth market for us. And in fact, this week at the JEC World Trade Show in Paris, Hexcel was recognized along with one of our customers and a consortium of other partners for our work on new composite technologies for the marine sector that will eventually lead to quieter and more environmentally sustainable cruise and cargo ships.

    工業總銷售額為 4700 萬美元,按固定匯率計算下降約 9%,原因是風能銷售額下降,但被銷售額增長和娛樂、汽車和一般工業市場部分抵消。海洋繼續作為我們的新興增長市場。事實上,本週在巴黎舉行的 JEC 世界貿易展上,Hexcel 與我們的一位客戶和其他合作夥伴財團一起獲得了認可,因為我們為海洋部門開發的新型複合材料技術最終將帶來更安靜、更環保的環境可持續遊輪和貨船。

  • As with every quarter, I want to thank our One Hexcel team for their focus on execution and efficiency through operational excellence, ensuring that we deliver quality products to our customers on time. The labor market remains tight, and certainly the necessary talent takes longer to find. Yet, we have been filling jobs both on the plant floor and in our offices with great success over the past several months as job seekers are attracted to our collaborative culture and our compelling business outlook with our sustainability-oriented life leading products. Our success as a company is not just what we do, but how we do it.

    與每個季度一樣,我要感謝我們的 One Hexcel 團隊通過卓越運營專注於執行和效率,確保我們按時向客戶交付優質產品。勞動力市場仍然緊張,當然需要更長的時間才能找到必要的人才。然而,在過去的幾個月裡,我們一直在填補車間和辦公室的工作崗位並取得巨大成功,因為求職者被我們的協作文化和我們以可持續發展為導向的生活領先產品所吸引的令人信服的商業前景所吸引。作為一家公司,我們的成功不僅在於我們做了什麼,還在於我們如何做。

  • Our growth position today is supported by how Hexcel managed during the downturn by quickly ramping, down yet without sitting still. A prime example of that is our decision to invest in a new research and development site adjacent to our largest carbon fiber and matrix plant in North America and Salt Lake City, Utah, which some of you have visited on previous Investor Day. We broke ground in October 2021, and then on March 22 of this year, our center of Research and Technology Excellence officially opened.

    我們今天的增長地位得到了 Hexcel 在經濟低迷時期的管理方式的支持,方法是迅速下滑,但又不會停滯不前。一個典型的例子是我們決定投資一個新的研發基地,毗鄰我們在北美和猶他州鹽湖城最大的碳纖維和基體工廠,你們中的一些人在上一個投資者日參觀過。我們於 2021 年 10 月破土動工,然後在今年 3 月 22 日,我們的研究與技術卓越中心正式開放。

  • Customers from about 20 companies joined us for an event where we celebrated with local public officials and employees with everyone having the chance to tour our state-of-the-art labs and meet our researchers and scientists who now are calling this remarkable innovation center their home. With about 100,000 square feet floor space, our new R&T center of excellence provides us with an amazing opportunity to expand our research and broaden our technology portfolio. It is also an ideal platform for us to collaborate with our customers on the latest innovation and lightweight, sustainable solutions and the latest developments in carbon fiber and matrix technologies for Aerospace, Space & Defense and Industrial Applications. It will quickly become a showcase that demonstrates our world-leading composite technology.

    來自大約 20 家公司的客戶參加了我們與當地公職人員和員工一起慶祝的活動,每個人都有機會參觀我們最先進的實驗室並會見我們的研究人員和科學家,他們現在稱這個非凡的創新中心為他們的家。我們新的 R&T 卓越中心佔地約 100,000 平方英尺,為我們提供了一個絕佳的機會來擴展我們的研究和拓寬我們的技術組合。它也是我們與客戶合作開發最新創新和輕型、可持續解決方案以及碳纖維和矩陣技術的最新發展的理想平台,適用於航空航天、航天與國防和工業應用。它將很快成為展示我們世界領先的複合材料技術的櫥窗。

  • Lastly, as you read in our news release last night, we are reaffirming our guidance at $1.725 billion to $1.825 billion in sales for 2023 with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.70 to $1.90. Our guidance on free cash flow is to generate more than $140 million while continuing to manage accrued capital expenditures with approximately $90 million spend forecasted.

    最後,正如您在昨晚的新聞稿中讀到的那樣,我們重申 2023 年銷售額為 17.25 億美元至 18.25 億美元的指導方針,調整後的攤薄每股收益為 1.70 美元至 1.90 美元。我們對自由現金流的指導是產生超過 1.4 億美元,同時繼續管理應計資本支出,預計支出約為 9000 萬美元。

  • Now I'll turn it over to Patrick to provide more details on the numbers.

    現在,我將把它轉交給帕特里克,以提供有關數字的更多詳細信息。

  • Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

    Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

  • Thank you, Nick. As a reminder, the majority of our sales are denominated in dollars. However, our cost base is a mix of dollars, euros and British pounds as we have a significant manufacturing presence in Europe. As a result, when the dollar strengthens against the euro and the pound, our sales translate lower while our costs also translate lower, leading to a net benefit to our margins. Conversely, a weak dollar is a headwind to our financial results. We hedge this currency exposure over a 10-quarter horizon to protect our operating income. As a result, currency changes are laid into financial results over time. As a reminder, the year-over-year sales comparisons I will provide are in constant currency, which thereby removes the foreign exchange impact to sales.

    謝謝你,尼克。提醒一下,我們的大部分銷售額都是以美元計價的。然而,我們的成本基礎是美元、歐元和英鎊的組合,因為我們在歐洲擁有重要的製造業務。因此,當美元兌歐元和英鎊走強時,我們的銷售額就會下降,而我們的成本也會下降,從而為我們的利潤帶來淨收益。相反,美元疲軟對我們的財務業績不利。我們在 10 個季度內對沖這種貨幣風險,以保護我們的營業收入。因此,隨著時間的推移,貨幣變化會反映在財務結果中。提醒一下,我將提供的同比銷售額比較採用固定貨幣,從而消除了外匯對銷售額的影響。

  • Turning to our 3 markets. Commercial Aerospace represented approximately 62% of total first quarter 2023 sales. First quarter Commercial Aerospace sales of $284.5 million increased 30% compared to the first quarter of 2022, led by both the Airbus A350 and A320neo programs. Airbus raised the production rate of the A350 in early 2023, which led to increased first quarter sales, including some restocking. The other commercial aerospace category grew 23.5%, led by strength in business jets. I would like to highlight that our first quarter 2023 business jet sales exceeded pre-pandemic levels, which is supported by the growing secular adoption of composites for lightweighting by business jet manufacturers.

    轉向我們的 3 個市場。商業航空航天佔 2023 年第一季度總銷售額的約 62%。第一季度商業航空航天銷售額為 2.845 億美元,與 2022 年第一季度相比增長 30%,其中空客 A350 和 A320neo 項目均處於領先地位。空中客車公司在 2023 年初提高了 A350 的生產率,這導致第一季度銷售額增加,包括一些補貨。其他商用航空航天類別增長 23.5%,主要是公務機的增長。我想強調的是,我們 2023 年第一季度的公務機銷量超過了大流行前的水平,這得益於公務機製造商越來越多地長期採用複合材料來實現輕量化。

  • Space & Defense represented 28% of first quarter sales and totaled $126.2 million, increasing 7.6% from the same period in 2022. The growth continues to be across multiple platforms globally, including fixed-wing aircraft and both military and civilian rotorcraft, partially offset by softer space sales. Industrial comprised 10% of first quarter 2023 sales. Industrial sales totaled $47 million, decreasing 9.1% compared to the first quarter of 2022 on lower wind energy sales. As we mentioned last quarter, wind energy sales stabilized in the second half of 2022. Recreation, automotive and other general industrial sales grew year-over-year.

    航天與國防佔第一季度銷售額的 28%,總計 1.262 億美元,比 2022 年同期增長 7.6%。增長繼續跨越全球多個平台,包括固定翼飛機以及軍用和民用旋翼機,部分抵消了軟空間銷售。工業佔 2023 年第一季度銷售額的 10%。由於風能銷售額下降,工業銷售額總計 4700 萬美元,與 2022 年第一季度相比下降 9.1%。正如我們上個季度提到的,風能銷售在 2022 年下半年趨於穩定。娛樂、汽車和其他一般工業銷售同比增長。

  • On a consolidated basis, gross margin for the quarter was 27.9% compared to 22.2% in the first quarter of 2022. Higher production levels and robust margin leverage were the principal drivers of this strong performance. However, I want to caution that the gross margin this quarter was particularly strong for a number of reasons. Sales mix was favorable with strong demand for Hexcel fiber-rich products. There was a favorable absorption impact as a result of increasing finished goods inventory, and foreign exchange was also a tailwind this quarter due to the significant dollar strength compared to the first quarter of 2022. As a percentage of sales, selling, general and administrative expenses and R&T expenses were 14.1% in the first quarter compared to 14.2% in the first quarter of 2022. Consistent with past trends, first quarter SG&A expenses were elevated on stock-based compensation. So SG&A is expected to moderate for the remainder of the year. R&D expenses were higher on more material development costs as we pursue new opportunities with our innovative composite lightweighting solutions.

    在綜合基礎上,本季度毛利率為 27.9%,而 2022 年第一季度為 22.2%。更高的生產水平和穩健的利潤率是這一強勁表現的主要驅動力。但是,我要提醒的是,由於多種原因,本季度的毛利率特別強勁。銷售組合有利,對富含 Hexcel 纖維的產品的需求強勁。由於成品庫存增加,產生了有利的吸收影響,而且由於美元與 2022 年第一季度相比顯著走強,本季度外匯也是順風車。佔銷售、銷售、一般和管理費用的百分比第一季度 R&T 費用為 14.1%,而 2022 年第一季度為 14.2%。與過去的趨勢一致,第一季度 SG&A 費用因股票薪酬而增加。因此,SG&A 預計將在今年剩餘時間內放緩。隨著我們通過創新的複合材料輕量化解決方案尋求新機遇,研發費用因材料開發成本增加而增加。

  • Adjusted operating income in the first quarter was $63 million or 13.8% of sales compared to $31.1 million or 8% of sales in the comparable prior year period. The year-over-year impact of exchange rates in the first quarter to adjusted operating income was favorable by approximately 80 basis points.

    第一季度調整後營業收入為 6300 萬美元,佔銷售額的 13.8%,而去年同期為 3110 萬美元,佔銷售額的 8%。第一季度匯率對調整後營業收入的同比影響有利約 80 個基點。

  • Now turning to our 2 segments. The Composite Materials segment represented 83% of total sales and generated an 18.4% operating margin, strengthening year-over-year on higher sales and production volume as well as mix. The operating margin in the comparable prior year period was 12.9%. The Engineered Products segment, which is comprised of our structures and engineered core businesses, represented 17% of total sales and generated a 14.9% operating income margin as compared to 13.7% in the comparable prior year period.

    現在轉向我們的 2 個部分。複合材料部門佔總銷售額的 83%,營業利潤率為 18.4%,因銷售額和產量以及產品組合的增加而同比增長。去年同期的營業利潤率為 12.9%。由我們的結構和工程核心業務組成的工程產品部門佔總銷售額的 17%,營業利潤率為 14.9%,而去年同期為 13.7%。

  • The effective tax rate for the first quarter of 2023 was 21.9%. Net cash used for operating activities in Q1 2023 was $23.4 million compared to a use of $19 million in the first quarter of 2022. Working capital was a use of cash of $104 million in the first quarter to support higher sales. This working capital increase was consistent with expectations and path trends as working capital increased $74.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.

    2023 年第一季度的有效稅率為 21.9%。 2023 年第一季度用於經營活動的淨現金為 2340 萬美元,而 2022 年第一季度為 1900 萬美元。營運資金是第一季度使用現金 1.04 億美元以支持更高的銷售額。 2022 年第一季度營運資金增加 7,430 萬美元,因此營運資金增加符合預期和路徑趨勢。

  • Capital expenditures on an accrual basis were $16.8 million in the first quarter of 2023 compared to $11.1 million in the prior year period. As previously disclosed, 2023 capital expenditure included further construction related to the partially completed carbon fiber line at our facility in Decatur, Alabama to support future growth. Free cash flow was negative $41.5 million in the first quarter of 2023, which was similar to the negative $39.9 million in the prior year period.

    2023 年第一季度的應計資本支出為 1680 萬美元,而去年同期為 1110 萬美元。如前所述,2023 年的資本支出包括與我們位於阿拉巴馬州迪凱特的工廠部分完工的碳纖維生產線相關的進一步建設,以支持未來的增長。 2023 年第一季度自由現金流為負 4150 萬美元,與去年同期的負 3990 萬美元持平。

  • For an alternative metric of cash generation, adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2023 was $106.6 million, up 44.6% from $73.7 million in the first quarter of 2022. I am pleased to let you know that we have just renewed and extended the maturity date of our bank-syndicated $750 million revolver to April 2028. The terms and conditions were basically unchanged with 2 key revisions to highlight. First is that the borrowing base rate was revised from LIBOR to SOFR as expected. The other change is beneficial to Hexcel as the leverage covenant calculation was revised to net debt whereas, previously, it was measured on a gross debt basis. Successfully concluding this refinancing during a period of banking turmoil speaks to the financial strength of Hexcel and the support of our bank group.

    對於現金產生的替代指標,2023 年第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.066 億美元,比 2022 年第一季度的 7370 萬美元增長 44.6%。我很高興地通知您,我們剛剛更新並延長了到期日到 2028 年 4 月,我們銀行銀團的 7.5 億美元循環貸款中的一部分。條款和條件基本沒有變化,有 2 個關鍵修訂需要強調。首先是藉款基準利率如預期從 LIBOR 修改為 SOFR。另一個變化對 Hexcel 有利,因為槓桿契約計算被修改為淨債務,而之前,它是根據總債務計算的。在銀行業動盪時期成功完成此次再融資,證明了 Hexcel 的財務實力和我們銀行集團的支持。

  • The Board of Directors declared a $0.125 quarterly dividend yesterday, payable to stockholders of record as of May 5 with a payment date of May 12. We did not repurchase any common stock during the first quarter of 2023. The remaining authorization under the share repurchase program on March 31, 2023, was $217 million. As Nick stated, our full year 2023 guidance is reaffirmed.

    董事會昨天宣布派發 0.125 美元的季度股息,支付給截至 5 月 5 日在冊的股東,支付日期為 5 月 12 日。我們在 2023 年第一季度沒有回購任何普通股。股票回購計劃下的剩餘授權2023 年 3 月 31 日為 2.17 億美元。正如尼克所說,我們重申了 2023 年全年的指導方針。

  • With that, let me turn the call back to Nick.

    有了這個,讓我把電話轉回給尼克。

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Thanks, Patrick. We welcome the returned growth and ramp-up in programs. Our customer relationships have never been better, thanks in part to our flexibility, transparency and reliability. Pent-up demand for air travel is loading up seats on airplanes, which is expanding backlog for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft. And as the market recovers, Hexcel benefits from the continued penetration of lightweight composite materials, as well as our never-ending commitment to innovate with our customers on new materials and solutions for next-generation programs.

    謝謝,帕特里克。我們歡迎項目的回歸增長和提升。我們的客戶關係從未像現在這樣好,這在一定程度上要歸功於我們的靈活性、透明度和可靠性。被壓抑的航空旅行需求正在增加飛機上的座位,這正在擴大對新的、更省油的飛機的積壓。隨著市場的複蘇,Hexcel 受益於輕質複合材料的持續滲透,以及我們與客戶一起為下一代項目開發新材料和解決方案的永無止境的承諾。

  • Supply chain issues remain a watch item for us as they do for most other suppliers in our industry. However, global demand for advanced composite technology for lighter-weight, stronger and more durable materials in all of our markets is growing. And our technology and products remain unrivaled in our industry. The disciplined actions we have taken and our focus on execution will ensure that Hexcel continues providing long-term shareholder value.

    供應鏈問題仍然是我們關注的問題,就像我們行業中的大多數其他供應商一樣。然而,在我們所有的市場中,全球對更輕、更堅固和更耐用材料的先進複合技術的需求正在增長。我們的技術和產品在我們的行業中仍然是無與倫比的。我們採取的紀律行動和我們對執行的關注將確保 Hexcel 繼續提供長期股東價值。

  • Rob, that concludes our prepared remarks. We're now ready to take questions.

    Rob,我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在準備好接受提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of John McNulty from BMO Capital Markets.

    (操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 John McNulty。

  • John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

    John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

  • So a question regarding the maintenance of your full year guide. So your first quarter came in really strong. And it did sound like maybe there was a little bit of continued restocking of inventory, so maybe that is part of the answer. But I guess when we think about the seasonality of the business, your strength in the first quarter would imply maybe a better range for the full year. So I guess, can you help us to understand maybe some of the puts and takes there or some of your conservatism as to the full year guide and no changes there?

    所以關於維護全年指南的問題。所以你的第一季度表現非常強勁。聽起來確實可能有一些持續的庫存補充,所以這可能是答案的一部分。但我想當我們考慮業務的季節性時,你在第一季度的實力可能意味著全年可能會有更好的範圍。所以我想,您能否幫助我們了解一些 puts 和 takes,或者您對全年指南的一些保守主義,那裡沒有變化?

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Yes, John. Well, thanks for the question. First off, clearly, we started the year strong, and we're seeing improvements in many of the supply chain aspects that are creating some uncertainty and continued pressure in the industry. So for one, we're early in the year. We just gave guidance in January and the guidance has pretty wide ranges on it. So the (inaudible) at this point in time, just didn't make sense to us. Secondly, the supply chain risks not necessarily only to us but for other components that could ultimately impact build rate ramps, I can't say those have gone away. They're still there, and we probably are taking a conservative view on that and some of the other shortages that are driving some challenges in various areas of discrete part manufacturing within the industry. So maybe a little bit conservative, but at this point in the year, that's really the position we want to take and convey.

    是的,約翰。好吧,謝謝你的提問。首先,很明顯,我們今年開局強勁,我們看到供應鏈的許多方面都有所改善,這給行業帶來了一些不確定性和持續的壓力。因此,首先,我們在今年年初。我們剛剛在 1 月份給出了指導,指導範圍很廣。所以此時的(聽不清)對我們來說沒有意義。其次,供應鏈風險不僅對我們而言,而且對於最終可能影響構建速度上升的其他組件而言,我不能說那些已經消失了。它們仍然存在,我們可能對此和其他一些短缺持保守觀點,這些短缺正在行業內離散零件製造的各個領域帶來一些挑戰。所以可能有點保守,但在今年的這個時候,這確實是我們想要採取和傳達的立場。

  • John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

    John Patrick McNulty - MD & Senior U.S. Chemicals Analyst

  • Got it. Fair enough. And maybe just as a follow-up, your balance sheet strengthened a lot. Your leverage, if I'm looking at it right, is now below 2x. And you actually have that maybe better covenant flexibility as well. So how should we think about cash flows and the uses as we go forward? Can we see maybe a push into buying back some stock throughout the year? Or are there opportunities on the M&A front just given your strength maybe relative to others out there where maybe that's more attractive? I guess maybe you can give us some color around that.

    知道了。很公平。也許作為後續行動,您的資產負債表得到了很大加強。如果我沒看錯的話,你的槓桿率現在低於 2 倍。你實際上也有更好的契約靈活性。那麼,在我們前進的過程中,我們應該如何考慮現金流量和用途呢?我們能否看到全年回購一些股票的推動力?或者,鑑於您的實力可能相對於其他更具吸引力的公司而言,在併購方面是否存在機會?我想也許你可以給我們一些顏色。

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Yes. So I'd say it's unfortunately for you, maybe a boring answer, but it's consistently what we've said for quite a few quarters, certainly since I've been talking and sharing our earnings results. First and foremost, our team are pushing innovation, new technologies, innovative new fibers, new processing, new solutions for our customers to help them not only on existing platforms and various derivatives that are being worked, but to prepare for the next generation of platforms. There's also new programs out there that awards are not set yet, for example, on the Valor 280 or many military programs that we continue to work and continue to innovate. So organic growth is priority number one.

    是的。所以我想說這對你來說很不幸,也許是一個無聊的答案,但這一直是我們幾個季度以來一直在說的,當然是因為我一直在談論和分享我們的收益結果。首先,我們的團隊正在為我們的客戶推動創新、新技術、創新的新纖維、新工藝、新解決方案,以幫助他們不僅在現有平台和正在使用的各種衍生產品上,而且為下一代平台做準備.還有一些尚未確定獎項的新項目,例如,關於 Valor 280 或我們繼續努力並繼續創新的許多軍事項目。因此,有機增長是第一要務。

  • Priority number two is we really look at the M&A landscape. We look at bolt-ons. We look at our technology portfolio and how we might expand that to be able to offer our customers even broader, more value-driving solutions for their lightweight needs. And that pipeline, we've been looking at that continually. We're disciplined. We're very selective. But that's how I look at number two. And then lastly, we always look at our balance sheet. We look at our debt ratio and we review with our Board on a regular basis, our dividend strategy and our share buyback strategy. And as you see, the cash generation is ramping up as our sales grow. So I would expect we'll continue to look at all 3 of those priorities. And without guiding to definitively, I'd say all of them are in play going forward.

    第二個優先事項是我們真正關注併購領域。我們看螺栓固定。我們審視我們的技術組合,以及我們如何擴展它,以便能夠為我們的客戶提供更廣泛、更具價值驅動的解決方案,以滿足他們的輕量化需求。那個管道,我們一直在關注它。我們紀律嚴明。我們非常有選擇性。但這就是我對第二條的看法。最後,我們總是查看我們的資產負債表。我們查看我們的債務比率,並定期與董事會一起審查我們的股息策略和股票回購策略。正如您所看到的,隨著我們銷售額的增長,現金產生量也在增加。所以我希望我們會繼續關注所有這 3 個優先事項。在沒有明確指導的情況下,我想說所有這些都在向前發展。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Rob Spingarn from Melius Research.

    您的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Spingarn。

  • Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

    Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

  • Nick, obviously, just on the back of that last question, strong numbers here in the first quarter. And you talked about the OE on the build rates. But I wanted to get a little bit more specific and see if you could take us through your plans for the major programs, A320, A350, 737, 787, et cetera. And I'm particularly focused on the MAX because there's talk of higher rates, but what we're not clear on is whether some of those aircraft are mods coming out of Moses Lake. And therefore, you wouldn't participate because you're already -- those aircraft are already largely built from a Hexcel perspective. So that's essentially the question. What is -- how do rates flow throughout the year on those programs for you? .

    尼克,很明顯,就在最後一個問題的背後,第一季度這裡的數據很強勁。你談到了 OE 的構建率。但我想說得更具體一點,看看你是否可以向我們介紹你的主要項目計劃,A320、A350、737、787 等。我特別關注 MAX,因為有人談論更高的利率,但我們不清楚其中一些飛機是否是來自摩西湖的改裝。因此,你不會參與,因為你已經——這些飛機基本上已經從 Hexcel 的角度建造了。這就是本質上的問題。什麼是 - 這些計劃全年的費率如何變化? .

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Well, let me start with Boeing. I mean, there's a lot of momentum and positive news coming out of Boeing. I know they had the recent issue that they're working through the Spirit. But just before that, they're really looking at potentially getting to a point of increasing rates from where they have been, around the low 30s. So we feel real good about the MAX. We see China continuing to issue reports that make it more comfortable for airlines to take new MAX deliveries. And we know Boeing have inventory that have been built and structured from the Chinese market, so that would be another tailwind that would help the MAX. So the aircraft, obviously, with the orders you're seeing, the length of time it takes to get a new aircraft, there are plenty of demand for the MAX as the supply chain stabilizes and Boeing can increase rates. So that's the MAX.

    好吧,讓我從波音開始。我的意思是,波音公司傳出了很多勢頭和積極的消息。我知道他們最近遇到了一個問題,就是他們正在通過聖靈工作。但就在那之前,他們真的在考慮可能從 30 多歲左右的低位開始提高利率。所以我們對 MAX 感覺很好。我們看到中國繼續發布報告,讓航空公司更願意接受新的 MAX 交付。我們知道波音公司擁有從中國市場構建和構建的庫存,因此這將是另一個有助於 MAX 的順風。所以飛機,很明顯,根據你看到的訂單,獲得一架新飛機所需的時間長度,隨著供應鏈的穩定和波音公司可以提高利率,對 MAX 的需求很大。這就是 MAX。

  • On 787 -- and I would point out, even though we highlighted the A350 and the A320neo, we were up year-over-year on the MAX and the 787. We were up sequentially on both those platforms. So I don't want to diminish the strength of Boeing, and we just called out the biggest market drivers for the revenue dollars. If you look at the 787, again, it was up. It has been at low rates. We saw a nice uptick in Q1. And again, Boeing is targeting to be closer to 5% by the end of the year. So we do expect that to continue to provide strength going forward. So turning to the Airbus side, if you look at the A220, orders continue to come in strongly. We have a nice position there. 320neo is on a glide path to ramp up to the mid-60s by the end of next year, still targeting to be in the mid-70s by 2025 time frame. So continued growth, strong positions we have there. And then the A350 has recently moved up to 6. And Airbus has been vocal and public on targeting the ramp up to 9 per month by the end of 2025.

    在 787 上——我要指出的是,儘管我們強調了 A350 和 A320neo,但我們在 MAX 和 787 上的同比增長。我們在這兩個平台上都連續增長。所以我不想削弱波音的實力,我們只是召集了收入美元的最大市場驅動力。如果你再看看 787,它又漲了。它一直處於低利率。我們在第一季度看到了不錯的增長。波音公司的目標是到今年年底接近 5%。因此,我們確實希望繼續提供前進的力量。所以轉向空客方面,如果你看看 A220,訂單繼續強勁增長。我們在那裡有一個很好的位置。 320neo 有望在明年年底前升至 60 年代中期,目標仍是到 2025 年達到 70 年代中期。因此持續增長,我們在那裡擁有強大的地位。然後 A350 最近增加到 6 架。空中客車公司一直公開表示,目標是到 2025 年底每月增加到 9 架。

  • The A330neo, where again we have strong position is at 4 per month, and we see that maintaining a consistent level going forward. So overall, we still see tailwinds on build rates. And again, we're very bullish on the market with the caveat that the supply chain is still questionable with respect to how quickly it can ramp up and if it might impact build rates in the next 12, 24 months.

    我們再次擁有強勢地位的 A330neo 是每月 4 架,我們看到它在未來保持一致的水平。因此,總的來說,我們仍然看到建造率方面的不利因素。再一次,我們非常看好市場,但需要注意的是,供應鏈的增長速度以及是否會影響未來 12、24 個月的建造率仍然值得懷疑。

  • Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

    Robert Michael Spingarn - MD

  • Okay. That's great color. So I appreciate that. Patrick, just briefly on the biz jet. I think you talked about bizjet before and have content per aircraft is up versus '19, and that's one of the -- at least one of the reasons why you're above '19 levels in revenue. Is there any way to measure that what your content is as a percentage of an aircraft's value and how that's moved and where it's going to move over the next couple of years? And how much confidence do you and Nick have in the bizjet production rate hikes?

    好的。那是很棒的顏色。所以我很感激。帕特里克,只是短暫地乘坐公務機。我認為你之前談到過 bizjet,並且每架飛機的內容與 19 年相比有所增加,這就是其中之一 - 至少是你收入高於 19 年水平的原因之一。有沒有什麼方法可以衡量您的內容佔飛機價值的百分比,以及它是如何移動的,以及它在未來幾年內將移動到哪裡?您和尼克對公務機生產率提高有多大信心?

  • Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

    Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

  • So the way I would talk about biz jets is we saw some fantastic growth in build rates over the last couple of years, and we're now at an elevated level. Now the growth rate may not continue at the same pace, but I do expect to see at this stay remain at this elevated level of demand, and that's pulling through a lot of Hexcel composite material. To answer your question about sort of content, the more modern -- the larger, more modern jets are pulling through significant shipsets. I think we called out that the large business jets are in the $200,000 to $500,000 range. And some of the larger ones, the largest sort of Gulfstream and the Dassault's Falcon 10X with the carbon wing are going to push beyond that. So we're extremely excited about further secular penetration of composites onto those platforms, which we expect to remain at elevated demand level for some time for the foreseeable future and beyond. So we're very confident on the outlook for business jet. .

    因此,我談論公務機的方式是,在過去幾年中,我們看到了建造率的驚人增長,而且我們現在處於較高水平。現在增長率可能不會以同樣的速度持續下去,但我確實希望看到這種需求保持在這種高水平,這正在推動大量 Hexcel 複合材料的發展。要回答你關於內容類型的問題,更現代——更大、更現代的噴氣式飛機正在通過重要的艦隊。我想我們說過大型公務機的價格在 200,000 美元到 500,000 美元之間。而一些更大的飛機,最大的灣流飛機和達索的碳翼獵鷹 10X 將超越這一水平。因此,我們對複合材料在這些平台上的進一步長期滲透感到非常興奮,我們預計在可預見的未來及以後的一段時間內,這些平台的需求水平將保持在較高水平。所以我們對公務機的前景非常有信心。 .

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Ken Herbert from RBC.

    你的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Ken Herbert。

  • Kenneth George Herbert - Analyst

    Kenneth George Herbert - Analyst

  • Maybe, Patrick, really nice gross margins in the quarter. And you called out sales mix and absorption. As we look at where the incrementals were this quarter, with the build rate plans, it doesn't sound like maybe those tailwinds necessarily moderate too much, at least through this year. So how should we think about incrementals on the gross margin line? And is the current margin rate sustainable? Or how much are you expecting or thinking we should see that moderate over the year?

    也許,帕特里克,本季度的毛利率非常好。你還提到了銷售組合和吸收。當我們查看本季度的增量情況時,通過構建率計劃,聽起來這些順風不一定會緩和太多,至少到今年是這樣。那麼我們應該如何考慮毛利率線上的增量呢?目前的保證金率是否可持續?或者你期望或認為我們應該在一年中看到多少溫和?

  • Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

    Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

  • Yes. I mean, it was a great margin quarter, and the volume leverage was the key driver. I think as I said in my script, I would moderate expectations a little bit. We had a particularly sort of Hexcel fiber-rich product mix in Q1 which helped. It gave us a bit of punch. And going forward, inventory, I would not expect to continue to grow. If anything, we will now be stabilizing that and, if anything, bringing it down. So I wouldn't expect an absorption tailwind either going forward. I mean, we do expect good quality margins but I would moderate down a little bit from what I would see is a little bit of an exceptional Q1 margin performance.

    是的。我的意思是,這是一個利潤率很高的季度,而交易量槓桿是關鍵驅動因素。我認為正如我在劇本中所說的那樣,我會稍微降低期望值。我們在第一季度有一種特別富含纖維的 Hexcel 產品組合,這很有幫助。它給了我們一點衝擊力。展望未來,庫存不會繼續增長。如果有的話,我們現在將穩定它,如果有的話,將其降低。因此,我不希望未來出現吸收順風。我的意思是,我們確實期望高質量的利潤率,但我會比我看到的第一季度利潤率表現略有緩和。

  • Kenneth George Herbert - Analyst

    Kenneth George Herbert - Analyst

  • No, that's helpful. And as I think about headcount and bringing staff back to support the higher rates, where are you in that process? And maybe at which level of staffing are you to support future rates? Or how much of that do you still have to go?

    不,那很有幫助。當我考慮員工人數和讓員工回來支持更高的利率時,你在這個過程中處於什麼位置?也許您將在哪個級別的人員配置中支持未來的費率?或者你還有多少需要去?

  • Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

    Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

  • So as you know, we took our headcount down from about 7,000 heading into the pandemic to about 4,500. Today, we're actually probably pushing 5,500. So we've almost brought back 1,000 people, which reflects the growth from the trough of the pandemic. I mean, our direct headcount will just pro rata. It will grow as demand grows. I mean, you can see sort of our guidance this year, $1.8 billion roughly just under the midpoint if you look at the midpoint. And if you compare that to the $2.4 billion, so that's about a $3.75 billion level. So we will nudge up again this year a bit more and in the coming years. We will manage indirect labor very prudently, but we will obviously not constrain ourselves to the growth opportunities, the R&D opportunities in front of us, and we will invest in people going forward. But the biggest mover on headcount is obviously direct labor, and that will follow revenue.

    如您所知,我們將員工人數從大流行前的約 7,000 人減少到約 4,500 人。今天,我們實際上可能正在推動 5,500。所以我們幾乎帶回了 1,000 人,這反映了大流行低谷期的增長。我的意思是,我們的直接人數將按比例計算。它會隨著需求的增長而增長。我的意思是,如果你看一下中點,你可以看到我們今年的指導方針,18 億美元大致略低於中點。如果你將其與 24 億美元進行比較,那麼這大約是 37.5 億美元的水平。因此,我們將在今年和未來幾年再次提高一點。我們會非常謹慎地管理間接勞動力,但我們顯然不會局限於眼前的增長機會、研發機會,我們會投資於未來的人才。但對員工人數影響最大的顯然是直接勞動力,而這將緊隨收入之後。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your next question comes from the line of Myles Walton from Wolfe Research.

    你的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

  • Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

  • With FLRAA decided, and you alluded to it, but I was hoping you could talk to some of the relative content you'd have on the Valor, is the shipset closer to a V-22 or CH-53K? And I guess how much of the content is still up for bid?

    隨著 FLRAA 的決定,你也提到了它,但我希望你能談談你在 Valor 上的一些相關內容,船組更接近 V-22 還是 CH-53K?我想還有多少內容仍在競標?

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Well, Myles, I would say the content will certainly be above the Black Hawk. We're still working on multiple packages, horsepower. So it's really premature for us to give a shipset at this point in time other than it's going to be nice, it's going to be a material driver for us, and it will be more than the Black Hawk.

    好吧,邁爾斯,我會說內容肯定會在黑鷹之上。我們仍在研究多個軟件包,馬力。因此,我們在這個時間點提供艦船還為時過早,除了它會很好,它將成為我們的物質驅動力,而且它將不僅僅是黑鷹。

  • Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. All right. And then Patrick, you mentioned the restock benefit on the 350? Any way to size that? And the reason I ask is it's hard to imagine that Commercial Aerospace sales don't sequentially grow in some way, shape or form through the course of the year, which I guess is implied at the top end of your guidance still. So maybe if you can size that or give us any way to stay in the range.

    好的。好的。然後帕特里克,你提到了 350 的補貨優勢?有什麼方法可以調整大小嗎?我問的原因是很難想像商業航空航天銷售額在一年中不會以某種方式、形狀或形式連續增長,我想這仍然暗示在你的指導的最頂端。因此,也許如果您可以調整大小或給我們任何方法來保持在該範圍內。

  • Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

    Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

  • Yes. I mean, we did -- as Nick said, I mean, we entered the year around 6 and we're now on a ramp towards 9 in 2025. So we're going to be in some sort of slope. It won't be a perfect straight line. I think what we saw in the first quarter that perhaps was a little bit of a surprise with a lot of demand, and that must have included some restocking. And the A350 is a very Hexcel fiber-rich platform. And you have heard us say before, whenever we get that sort of pull-through of mix, it boosts our margins. So I do agree, we're going to see steady growth. Whether we will get the same sort of restocking fiber-rich mix every time (inaudible) definitely gave us a margin percentage boost in the first quarter this year.

    是的。我的意思是,我們做到了——正如尼克所說,我的意思是,我們在 6 歲左右進入了這一年,現在我們正朝著 2025 年的 9 歲邁進。所以我們將處於某種斜坡上。這不會是一條完美的直線。我認為我們在第一季度看到的情況可能有點令人驚訝,因為需求量很大,而且肯定包括一些補貨。 A350 是一個非常富含 Hexcel 纖維的平台。你以前聽過我們說過,每當我們獲得這種組合時,它就會提高我們的利潤率。所以我同意,我們將看到穩定的增長。我們是否每次都會獲得同樣的富含纖維的補貨組合(聽不清),這無疑使我們在今年第一季度的利潤率有所提高。

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • I would just add to Patrick's comments that in addition to the A350 in production, we're also providing materials for the freighter. And Airbus has recently completed the central wing box that again has all Hexcel fibers on. And then lastly, remember, our supply chain for the A350 are over 40, 50 locations. So it's quite a complex broad supply chain that does require some safety stock and some provisioning of materials, which we think some of that came through in Q1.

    我只想補充帕特里克的評論,除了生產中的 A350,我們還為貨機提供材料。空中客車公司最近完成了中央翼盒,再次使用了所有 Hexcel 纖維。最後,請記住,我們的 A350 供應鏈分佈在 40、50 多個地點。因此,這是一個相當複雜的廣泛供應鏈,確實需要一些安全庫存和一些材料供應,我們認為其中一些是在第一季度完成的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley.

    你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

  • Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

    Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

  • Patrick, Nick, following up on the earlier questions on cash use, with the new Boeing airplane seemingly not in the horizon for this decade, the balance sheet where it is, the relatively minimal CapEx requirement, I mean, you're going to be in a period of unprecedented growing free cash flow in this up cycle. So what's your appetite to use the balance sheet or this cash for a transformative M&A? Do you think you need it? Are there anything of interest? Or potentially just returning 100% of that free cash flow to shareholders through dividends or buybacks?

    帕特里克、尼克,跟進早期關於現金使用的問題,新的波音飛機似乎在這十年內不會出現,資產負債表就在那裡,相對最低的資本支出要求,我的意思是,你會在這個上升週期中自由現金流空前增長的時期。那麼,您對使用資產負債表或這筆現金進行變革性併購有何興趣?你覺得你需要嗎?有什麼有趣的嗎?或者可能只是通過股息或回購將 100% 的自由現金流返還給股東?

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Yes, Kristine. So thanks for the question. First, I would remind everyone that the lead time for material selection before a new airplane is lost, is in the vicinity of 5 years to 10 years. So you shouldn't think that we're not investing, working with our customers on the next-generation materials, processes and solutions for those types of platforms, which we are. Secondly, do we need to do M&A? We don't view that we need to. That's really how we drive our discipline and the value proposition to how it enhances our portfolio. So as you say, we have plenty of powder. We're looking at various areas and targets and technology that we think would fit very well. That's an active process that we have our team working on. But again, could we return more to shareholders, depending on the availability and the actionability of those targets? Again, it could fluctuate based on those factors.

    是的,克里斯汀。所以謝謝你的問題。首先要提醒大家,一架新飛機報廢前的選材提前期,在5年到10年左右。所以你不應該認為我們沒有投資,沒有與我們的客戶合作,為這些類型的平台開發下一代材料、工藝和解決方案,我們就是這樣。其次,是否需要併購?我們不認為我們需要這樣做。這就是我們如何推動我們的紀律和價值主張,以增強我們的投資組合。所以正如你所說,我們有足夠的粉末。我們正在研究我們認為非常適合的各個領域、目標和技術。這是一個積極的過程,我們的團隊正在努力。但同樣,我們是否可以根據這些目標的可用性和可操作性,向股東提供更多回報?同樣,它可能會根據這些因素波動。

  • Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

    Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

  • Great. And then in terms of the investment dollars, can you size that? Is this 5% of sales annually or less? How should we think about that level of investment that you'd have to do for the next airplane program?

    偉大的。然後就投資美元而言,你能確定嗎?這是每年銷售額的 5% 還是更少?我們應該如何考慮您必須為下一個飛機計劃進行的投資水平?

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Yes. We really don't go there. We're working with our customers on very a few technologies, whether you're talking about fibers, whether you're talking about matrix systems, whether you're talking about in auto plate, out of auto plate, thermal set, thermoplastic, there's a wide variety of technologies that will be used in different parts of the aircraft. I'd also say we're firm believers that the penetration -- the secular penetration of composites will continue to grow. So as we can make our materials more flexible, more adaptable to new processing, it opens up the window of the next composite airplane to be above 50%, who knows, maybe 70%.

    是的。我們真的不去那裡。我們正在與我們的客戶合作開發非常少的技術,無論您是在談論纖維,無論您是在談論矩陣系統,無論您是在談論自動印版、自動印版、熱固性、熱塑性塑料,飛機的不同部分將使用各種各樣的技術。我還要說,我們堅信複合材料的滲透率——長期滲透率將繼續增長。因此,由於我們可以使我們的材料更靈活,更適應新工藝,它打開了下一架複合材料飛機的窗口,使其超過 50%,誰知道呢,也許是 70%。

  • Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

    Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

  • 70 would be a lot. Great.

    70 會很多。偉大的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Peter Skibitski from Alembic Global.

    您的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Peter Skibitski。

  • Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

    Peter John Skibitski - Senior Analyst

  • Nice quarter, guys. On Industrial, the sales decline, I think the release mentioned wind. Was European wind down in the quarter? And what's kind of the prospects of that going forward? Have you bottomed there or not? And last one is, could you just touch on are you seeing any headwinds in the balance of the Industrial portfolio or not?

    不錯的季度,伙計們。在工業方面,銷售下降,我認為發布提到了風。歐洲在本季度風平浪靜了嗎?未來的前景如何?你有沒有觸底?最後一個是,您能否談談您是否看到工業投資組合平衡中的任何不利因素?

  • Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

    Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

  • Yes. So on wind, really, all our sales now are European-focused. As you'll remember, we -- investors pulled out essentially a prepreg plate making in the U.S. in 2020. We closed our wind in Colorado plant. We announced at the end of last year, the closure of our Tianjin China plant. So those have now gone. So really, all our wind energy focus or at least the vast majority of it is in Europe out of our European production base. I think, as I said in my script, we're now sort of stabilizing on wind.

    是的。所以在風上,真的,我們現在所有的銷售都以歐洲為中心。你會記得,我們——投資者在 2020 年基本上撤出了美國的預浸板製造。我們關閉了在科羅拉多州的工廠。我們在去年底宣布關閉中國天津工廠。所以那些現在已經消失了。因此,實際上,我們所有的風能重點或至少絕大部分都在我們歐洲生產基地之外的歐洲。我認為,正如我在劇本中所說,我們現在有點靠風穩定下來。

  • The last 3 quarters have been relatively level, but certainly a step down -- fairly significant step down year-over-year if you look at Q1 '22 to Q1 '23. But we expect to continue to support the wind energy business at this rough level for some period of time, and we're innovating some resin coating gel products, which we hope to see grow around the world actually. In terms of the rest of automotive, nearly every segment was up. Automotive was up, recreation was up. And 1 or 2 of the key other industrial places were up. So we're seeing general strength around the wind business. Wind has kind of merged back, if you like, to be 1 of 3 or 4 key elements of our industrial market.

    過去 3 個季度相對平穩,但肯定是下降了——如果你看看 22 年第一季度到 23 年第一季度,同比下降相當顯著。但我們希望在一段時間內繼續以這種粗略的水平支持風能業務,我們正在創新一些樹脂塗層凝膠產品,我們希望看到這些產品在世界範圍內得到實際發展。就汽車的其餘部分而言,幾乎每個細分市場都在上漲。汽車興起,娛樂興起。其他 1 個或 2 個主要工業場所上漲。因此,我們看到了風能業務的總體實力。如果你願意的話,風能有點合併回來,成為我們工業市場的 3 或 4 個關鍵要素之一。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

  • Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

    Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

  • You guys seem to be beating numbers without breaking a sweat here, Nick, I think you alluded to it, too. You're watching labor inefficiency, supply chain. Others are stumbling on this. So I guess, what has improved over the last 6 months for you guys? And what are you guys watching most carefully going forward?

    你們似乎在這裡毫不費力地擊敗了數字,尼克,我想你也提到了這一點。你正在觀察勞動力效率低下,供應鏈。其他人正在絆倒這個。所以我想,你們在過去 6 個月裡有什麼改進?你們最關注的是什麼?

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Well, I would be remiss if I said it was easy. I can tell you our teams have been working incredibly hard on managing the supply chain, putting out fires which were coming up quite frequently a few quarters back. And they're not completely out plus they have slowed down. So I'd say from our supply base, our supply consistency, lead times, we are definitely seeing an improvement, but it's still not as steady and stable as it was pre pandemic. And we need to keep an eye on it because we have items pop up regularly. I'd also say on logistics and especially international freight on ships, the lead times have significantly improved and we're seeing a downward trend there that -- it's too early to claim -- too early to claim that it is back to 2019 levels. But again, we're seeing positive movements in that area from our logistics and supply chain capabilities.

    好吧,如果我說這很容易,那我就失職了。我可以告訴你,我們的團隊一直在非常努力地管理供應鏈,撲滅了幾個季度前經常發生的火災。而且他們並沒有完全退出,而且他們已經放慢了速度。所以我想說,從我們的供應基礎、我們的供應一致性、交貨時間來看,我們肯定看到了改善,但它仍然不像大流行前那樣穩定。我們需要密切關注它,因為我們會定期彈出項目。我還要說的是,在物流方面,尤其是國際船運,交貨時間已經顯著縮短,我們看到了下降趨勢——現在斷言還為時過早——斷言回到 2019 年的水平還為時過早.但同樣,我們從我們的物流和供應鏈能力中看到了該領域的積極變化。

  • Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

    Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

  • Great. And I wanted to ask one on Defense & Space. I don't know if you've ever given your breakout of how much space contributes. I wanted to know if your contracts are structured differently there, both within defense and space just given the customer bases.

    偉大的。我想問一個關於國防與太空的問題。我不知道你是否曾經突破過有多少空間貢獻。我想知道你們的合同結構是否有所不同,無論是在國防還是太空領域,只是考慮到客戶群。

  • Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

    Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

  • So pure space sales are a smaller portion of our Space & Defense. I mean, Space & Defense dominate -- it's the vast majority of that segment that we call out. I mean, in terms of the contract, they're probably slightly shorter in duration, but we have the same sort of commercial agreements and set up with those customers as we would with many other commercial customers -- Commercial Aerospace customers, I should say. Probably, we don't have decade-long contracts as we do see in the Commercial Aerospace world. But over time, that may develop as well. So similar structure contracts, probably slightly shorter term in nature, but nothing massively different.

    因此,純粹的太空銷售是我們太空與國防的一小部分。我的意思是,太空與國防占主導地位——這是我們呼籲的該部分的絕大多數。我的意思是,就合同而言,它們的期限可能會稍微短一些,但我們與這些客戶簽訂了相同類型的商業協議,並與許多其他商業客戶建立了商業協議——商業航空航天客戶,我應該說.可能我們沒有像商業航空航天領域那樣的長達十年的合同。但隨著時間的推移,這也可能會發展。如此相似的結構合同,本質上可能期限稍短,但沒有什麼大的不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Richard Safran from Seaport Research Partners.

    您的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Richard Safran。

  • Richard Tobie Safran - Research Analyst

    Richard Tobie Safran - Research Analyst

  • So I wanted to ask your V-280 question, a bit of a different perspective though. I think you made the point, correct me if I'm wrong, that you're agnostic. However, one, FLRAA, now that the award has been made and the protest over, could you comment on the transition to the V-280 from the UH-60, when the V-280 should start to impact your P&L? And how long you're expecting UH-60 program to last?

    所以我想問你的 V-280 問題,雖然有點不同的觀點。我認為你說得對,如果我錯了請糾正我,你是不可知論者。但是,FLRAA,現在已經做出裁決並且抗議已經結束,您能否評論一下從 UH-60 到 V-280 的過渡,V-280 何時應該開始影響您的損益?您期望 UH-60 計劃持續多長時間?

  • Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

    Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

  • Yes. So Rich, I mean, a good question. There's going to be an overlap, I would expect. I mean, in terms of the V-280, we wouldn't expect to see any real significant revenue probably for a couple of years into 2025. As Nick said, we're still working on a number of packages to try and get more content on that aircraft, and it's too soon to declare our shipset status. I would expect the Black Hawk program and the transition over to take several years. I think we're going to see strength in replacement blade demand around the Black Hawk for some period to come. There could even be a little bit of a bump where we're supplying to both programs for a period. But I think it will be a steady transition. I don't think there will be a sudden drop in Black Hawk before the V-280 ramps, I think there'll be an overlap and we'll see a fairly gradual transition over time.

    是的。 So Rich,我的意思是,這是個好問題。我希望會有重疊。我的意思是,就 V-280 而言,我們預計到 2025 年的幾年內可能不會看到任何真正的可觀收入。正如 Nick 所說,我們仍在研究一些軟件包以嘗試獲得更多那架飛機上的內容,現在宣布我們的艦載狀態還為時過早。我預計黑鷹計劃和過渡需要幾年時間。我認為我們將在未來一段時間內看到黑鷹周圍更換刀片的需求強勁。我們在一段時間內為這兩個項目提供服務時,甚至可能會出現一點點顛簸。但我認為這將是一個穩定的過渡。我不認為在 V-280 斜坡之前 Black Hawk 會突然下降,我認為會有重疊,我們會隨著時間的推移看到一個相當漸進的過渡。

  • Richard Tobie Safran - Research Analyst

    Richard Tobie Safran - Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to ask a quick one on labor here. Nick, really kind of like -- if you mentioned this in your remarks and I missed it, I apologize. But given the headcount increases, I wanted to know if you could offer a comment or 2 on how the training has been progressing, how quickly you've been seeing the workforce been ramping. And given the tight labor market, you even mentioned, if you're getting the right people, I just have to think that based on your results, I mean, things seem to be doing a little bit better than you were expecting.

    我只是想在這裡問一個關於分娩的問題。尼克,真的有點像——如果你在發言中提到了這一點,而我沒有註意到,我深表歉意。但鑑於員工人數增加,我想知道你是否可以就培訓的進展情況、你看到勞動力增加的速度多快發表評論或 2。鑑於勞動力市場緊張,你甚至提到,如果你找到合適的人選,我只需要根據你的結果認為,事情似乎比你預期的要好一些。

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Well, I don't know that I'd say they're doing better than we expected. I think clearly they are improving rapidly. We did expect that. We continue to work our training programs. We continue to work our processes to try to eliminate as much of the potential human error out of our processes as we can. At the same time, during the pandemic, we took the opportunity to work productivity and efficiency improvements within our processes. So you're seeing some of that flow through. But overall, I'd say the quality of the talent has been outstanding. And the ramp-up has been, I'd say, as we expected, which has translated into efficiencies that are climbing rapidly.

    好吧,我不知道我會說他們做得比我們預期的要好。我認為他們正在迅速改善。我們確實預料到了。我們繼續開展我們的培訓計劃。我們繼續改進我們的流程,盡可能多地消除流程中的潛在人為錯誤。與此同時,在大流行期間,我們藉此機會在我們的流程中提高生產力和效率。所以你會看到其中的一些流過。但總的來說,我認為人才的素質非常出色。我想說,正如我們預期的那樣,這種增長已經轉化為迅速攀升的效率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Michael Ciarmoli from Truist Securities.

    你的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Ciarmoli。

  • Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

    Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

  • Maybe Nick, last quarter, I think it came up at the longer-term kind of margin goals were becoming a bit more challenged. Clearly, you guys had some mix and you covered all the kind of tailwinds this quarter. But has anything changed? I mean, I think last quarter, we were focusing a lot on energy inflation, just general cost pressures. Maybe can you give us a sense, has anything sort of shifted or giving you more or less confidence in getting to those longer-term targets? Any color you might be able to add on pricing as well there?

    也許尼克,上個季度,我認為它出現在長期的利潤率目標變得更具挑戰性。很明顯,你們有一些混合,你們在本季度涵蓋了所有類型的順風。但是有什麼改變嗎?我的意思是,我認為上個季度,我們非常關注能源通脹,只是一般成本壓力。也許你能給我們一個感覺,有什麼改變或讓你或多或少有信心實現這些長期目標嗎?您還可以在定價上添加任何顏色嗎?

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Yes, Michael. So I'd say nothing has really shifted negatively. Actually, probably some positive shifts. Number one, energy, we've seen a decline in the energy especially in Europe as those markets stabilize and come down. I think the team has done a great job working with our customers to recover some of the inflationary items on labor and oil, and we've translated that well. And again, we've always driven for productivity improvements year-over-year, for efficiency improvements year-over-year, which is never ending in an operational environment.

    是的,邁克爾。所以我想說沒有什麼真正發生負面變化。實際上,可能會有一些積極的轉變。第一,能源,我們已經看到能源下降,尤其是在歐洲,因為這些市場趨於穩定和下滑。我認為該團隊與我們的客戶合作,在恢復勞動力和石油方面的一些通脹項目方面做得很好,我們已經很好地翻譯了這一點。再一次,我們一直在推動生產率逐年提高,效率逐年提高,這在運營環境中永無止境。

  • So I'd say I feel good about where we are. We have a way to go. We're going to continue to leverage the volume growth. We're going to continue to be tight on adding costs and certainly salaried resources, continuing to drive leverage and productivity going forward. So as we grow, clearly, we're going to be hiring both as Patrick mentioned, to support the operations. And the direct heads virtually follow the revenue. On the salaried side, we're going to continue to add the technologists, add the positions to help drive the growth for us to deliver well beyond the recovery.

    所以我會說我對我們所處的位置感覺很好。我們還有路要走。我們將繼續利用銷量增長。我們將繼續嚴格增加成本,當然還有受薪資源,繼續推動槓桿率和生產力向前發展。因此,隨著我們的成長,很明顯,我們將像帕特里克提到的那樣招聘,以支持運營。而直接負責人實際上跟隨收入。在受薪方面,我們將繼續增加技術人員,增加職位以幫助推動我們的增長,以實現遠遠超出複甦的目標。

  • Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

    Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

  • Got it, got it. That's helpful. And then just one more, if I may, maybe going back to Rob's questions on rate. On the MAX, I mean, if we're going to keep production at 42 a month potentially by year-end, I think there's been some commentary that maybe 300 leap composite shipsets were built last year. Is that creating a bit of a headwind for you guys? Just some of the composite-rich engine shipsets that need to be destocked? Or any other color there on MAX that you could talk about?

    明白了,明白了。這很有幫助。然後再問一個問題,如果可以的話,也許可以回到 Rob 關於利率的問題。在 MAX 上,我的意思是,如果我們要在年底前將產量保持在每月 42 艘,我認為有一些評論說去年可能建造了 300 艘 leap 複合材料船組。這對你們來說是不是有點不利?只是一些需要去庫存的富含複合材料的發動機船組?或者您可以談論 MAX 上的任何其他顏色?

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • We don't see the MAX of being a headwind for us at all. We see it as being an opportunity and a tailwind as the issues that we saw and as Boeing ramps up engines. I'm sure the engine manufacturers are working aggressively to maintain and to support the rates required by the OEs. And we're certainly not prevented from -- or have any obstacles in preventing us from supplying composite components for engines and the cells going forward. That's not a headwind for us.

    我們根本看不到對我們不利的 MAX。我們認為這是一個機會和順風,就像我們看到的問題以及波音公司提升引擎一樣。我確信發動機製造商正在積極工作以維持和支持 OE 要求的速率。我們當然不會被阻止——或者有任何障礙阻止我們為發動機和未來的電池供應複合材料部件。這對我們來說不是逆風。

  • Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

    Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Got you. Yes, I was meaning one of your suppliers had shipped to maybe 300 extra shipsets at the end of last year. And having to burn those down, they were kind of producing at flat levels for the leap this year. So that's kind of what I was alluding to.

    好的。明白了是的,我的意思是你的一個供應商在去年年底已經運送了大約 300 個額外的船組。並且不得不燒掉那些,他們今年的飛躍生產水平持平。所以這就是我所暗示的。

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Yes. I think we've got that figured into our plan and it's not a big obstacle for us.

    是的。我認為我們已經將其納入我們的計劃,這對我們來說不是一個大障礙。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss from Barclays.

    你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 David Strauss。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • I know you guys -- you maintained your -- all your guidance for this year, including your revenue guidance. But within that is there any change in terms of how you're thinking about by end market, I think your implied growth in Commercial Aerospace based on your -- the 58% you were guiding to of total sales implied only 13% commercial aero growth for the year. So does that still hold? Or is that -- are you now assuming it's higher than that?

    我知道你們——你們保持了你們今年的所有指導,包括你們的收入指導。但在這方面,你對終端市場的看法有任何變化,我認為你在商業航空航天方面的隱含增長是基於你的——你指導的佔總銷售額的 58% 意味著只有 13% 的商業航空增長今年。那麼這仍然成立嗎?或者是——你現在假設它比那個更高嗎?

  • Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

    Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

  • So I would say -- I mean, we're not ready at this point to adjust. We'll watch the trend of sales through the mid-year points. And if we're going to kind of call out revision to guidance, we would do it all at the same time. Now clearly, stating the obvious, and you've kind of just pointed to it, Q1 Commercial Aerospace was strong, perhaps little bit stronger than we expected. But at this time of the year, as Nick talked about, there is still supply chain challenges for the OEMs. Now whether that's engines or whether it's other structural or electronic components, we don't know what's going to happen to the build rate. So yes, a good quarter for Commercial Aerospace to start the year, but a long way still to go and too early for us to sort of look at the color within our guidance, which we will obviously look at as we move through the year.

    所以我會說——我的意思是,我們目前還沒有準備好進行調整。我們將通過年中點觀察銷售趨勢。如果我們要對指南進行修訂,我們會同時進行。現在很明顯,你已經指出了這一點,Q1 Commercial Aerospace 很強大,也許比我們預期的要強一點。但在每年的這個時候,正如尼克所說,原始設備製造商仍然面臨供應鏈挑戰。現在,無論是發動機還是其他結構或電子元件,我們都不知道建造速度會發生什麼。所以,是的,對於商業航空航天公司來說,這是一個不錯的開年季度,但還有很長的路要走,而且我們在我們的指導範圍內看顏色還為時過早,我們顯然會在這一年中看到它。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And on A350, you said you're at 6, headed towards 9 over the next couple of years. But has there been any change recently in that demand signal from Airbus just in light of the fact, based on their deliveries, there's some sort of -- it looks like some sort of issue there where they only delivered 5 aircraft in the first quarter, so way below the production rate.

    好的。在 A350 上,你說你現在是 6 歲,在接下來的幾年裡會朝著 9 歲邁進。但是最近空中客車公司的需求信號是否有任何變化,根據他們的交付量,他們在第一季度只交付了 5 架飛機,這看起來像是某種問題,所以遠低於生產率。

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Yes. So we are obviously very close with Airbus and Boeing and our customers. And we see movements and the skyline that provides pretty significant detail, but we have not seen any changes that cause us to change our belief for forecast on the 350 ramp schedule.

    是的。所以我們顯然與空客和波音以及我們的客戶非常接近。我們看到運動和天際線提供了非常重要的細節,但我們沒有看到任何變化導致我們改變對 350 坡道時間表的預測信念。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • Okay. One quick one to finish up. The inventory side, Patrick, can you just give a little bit more color exactly what's going on there? I mean, your absolute inventory levels are pretty close to being back to where they were in 2019, yet your sales volumes are still 25 or so percent below. So why does inventory keep building from here? And how significant of a drawdown should we see?

    好的。一個快速完成。庫存方面,帕特里克,你能不能再多說一點到底發生了什麼?我的意思是,您的絕對庫存水平非常接近 2019 年的水平,但您的銷量仍低 25% 左右。那麼為什麼庫存從這裡不斷增加呢?我們應該看到多大的回撤?

  • Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

    Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

  • So great question and great question for a CFO. So absolutely, I mean, as we talked to last year, we deliberately allowed our inventory to grow, recognizing some of the supply chain challenges and bringing in the materials. And we did that in order to make sure that we didn't delay or impact our customers or at least we minimize that as much as we possibly could. Coming into this year, we saw the strong Q1 demand sort of late last year. So we built up some inventory levels, and that continued really into January and a bit into February to support the strong first quarter.

    對於首席財務官來說,這是一個很好的問題和一個很好的問題。所以絕對,我的意思是,正如我們去年所說的那樣,我們故意允許我們的庫存增加,認識到一些供應鏈挑戰並引入材料。我們這樣做是為了確保我們不會延遲或影響我們的客戶,或者至少我們盡可能地減少這種情況。進入今年,我們看到了去年年底強勁的第一季度需求。因此,我們建立了一些庫存水平,並且這種情況一直持續到 1 月份和 2 月份,以支持強勁的第一季度。

  • What I would say going forward, and I think I said to an earlier question, we now expect inventory to stabilize and for inventory to come down. And we think we've probably peaked at the moment. We'll be focusing on the relative days of inventory that we hold. And I would expect -- and we'll be driving to release a bit of cash, I wouldn't overstate it from inventory in the coming quarters. But I certainly would not expect to see more inventory growth from this point onwards. So it was really all about supporting what was actually quite a strong fourth quarter for us and then seeing an even stronger first quarter as we came into 2023.

    我想說的是,我想我對之前的一個問題說過,我們現在預計庫存會穩定下來,庫存會下降。我們認為我們目前可能已經達到頂峰。我們關注的是我們持有的庫存的相對天數。我預計 - 我們將推動釋放一些現金,我不會在未來幾個季度從庫存中誇大它。但我當然不會期望從這一點開始看到更多的庫存增長。所以這真的是為了支持我們實際上相當強勁的第四季度,然後在我們進入 2023 年時看到更強勁的第一季度。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna from Cowen.

    您的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Gautam Khanna。

  • Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

    Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Patrick, you've probably answered this 5 different ways, but I just want to make sure I understood it. Sequentially, cost of sales flat with sales up $28 million or whatever it was. And that is just mix and productivity. Like you said, you built inventories so there was an absorption benefit. There was nothing else that was sort of one time that's -- to explain that?

    帕特里克,你可能已經用 5 種不同的方式回答了這個問題,但我只是想確保我理解它。隨後,銷售成本持平,銷售額增加了 2800 萬美元或其他什麼。這就是混合和生產力。就像你說的,你建立了庫存,所以有吸收的好處。沒有什麼其他的可以解釋一下嗎?

  • Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

    Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

  • No, it really was mix, which was good. All the Hexcel fiber that came through, the absorption into the finished goods always helps. And as I said, I think that trend -- literally to the last question, that trend is going to now turn. So I wouldn't expect to see favorable absorption. I mean, FX is strong if I look year-over-year, but you were talking sequentially. But that FX margin benefit of 80 basis points is one of the strongest sort of quarter-over-quarter benefits we've ever seen. But it was really about the Hexcel fiber-rich mix and about the level of absorption that came through along with good cost control and the rest of it. But those should be ongoing and improving the efficiency and productivity that Nick talked about.

    不,它真的是混合的,這很好。所有通過的 Hexcel 纖維,吸收到成品中總是有幫助的。正如我所說,我認為這種趨勢 - 從字面上看最後一個問題,這種趨勢現在將會轉變。所以我不希望看到有利的吸收。我的意思是,如果我逐年看的話,外匯是強勁的,但你是按順序說話的。但 80 個基點的外匯保證金收益是我們見過的最強勁的季度收益之一。但這實際上是關於 Hexcel 富含纖維的混合物,以及通過良好的成本控制和其他方面實現的吸收水平。但這些應該持續進行,並提高 Nick 談到的效率和生產力。

  • Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

    Gautam J. Khanna - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Terrific. And have you guys -- could you tell us where you are on 87 rate where you think you are?

    了不起。你們有沒有 - 你能告訴我們你認為你在哪裡的 87 率嗎?

  • Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

    Patrick Joseph Winterlich - Executive VP, CFO & Acting Corporate Controller

  • Well, we're moving up towards rate 5. We're somewhere on that journey. We were kind of in the 2, 3 last year. We're now moving up towards rate 5. It's hard to be specific. Again, to Nick's point, we delivered to multiple endpoints, but we're on that ramp rate, up towards 5. I mean, we will obviously get there ahead of Boeing shipping at that level. So that's the thing you should always bear in mind.

    好吧,我們正在向 5 級邁進。我們正處於那個旅程的某個地方。去年我們有點像 2、3。我們現在正朝著 5 級邁進。很難具體說明。同樣,對於 Nick 的觀點,我們交付了多個端點,但我們正處於那個上升速度,上升到 5。我的意思是,我們顯然會在那個水平上領先於波音運輸。所以這是你應該始終牢記的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And your final question comes from the line of Ron Epstein from Bank of America.

    你的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

  • Ronald Jay Epstein - MD in Equity Research & Industry Analyst

    Ronald Jay Epstein - MD in Equity Research & Industry Analyst

  • It seems like most everything has been asked, but maybe just some big picture stuff. When we think about what potential new opportunities that are out there for you, I mean, expect no Boeing and Airbus are going to go on an airplane development vacation for a little while. What else is there out there? Is there some defense things you're looking at? Or is there other things we should be looking for as potential additional growth drivers for the company?

    似乎幾乎所有問題都被問到了,但也許只是一些大問題。當我們考慮為您提供哪些潛在的新機會時,我的意思是,預計波音和空中客車公司不會在短時間內進行飛機開發假期。外面還有什麼?你在看一些防禦性的東西嗎?還是我們應該尋找其他東西作為公司潛在的額外增長動力?

  • Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

    Nick L. Stanage - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO

  • Yes, Ron. So again, there's always derivatives. More frequently the new aircraft, you see reengineering, and you should expect that, that will continue. And that requires a new cell. And just as a reminder, we have very strong position on engines and the cells and continue to drive advance material for hotter temperatures, for better sound attenuation, for other applications that composites can't fulfill today, but can tomorrow. So we're working on those. We're working on secondary structures and certain elements that are easier to qualify and replace on derivatives. The A220 is a big opportunity for us. We've got various materials on the fiber, on the prepreg, on the technology side that could offer a great advantage and an opportunity going forward. We continue to work with our customers on that. So in the Commercial Aerospace, and Patrick touched on all the penetration and the secular growth on business jets with Gulfstream, with Dassault and others big platforms, and again, just more and more of the aircraft transitioning over to composites.

    是的,羅恩。同樣,總是有衍生品。更頻繁的是新飛機,你會看到重新設計,你應該預料到,這將繼續下去。這需要一個新的細胞。提醒一下,我們在發動機和電池方面擁有非常強大的地位,並繼續推動先進材料用於更熱的溫度、更好的聲音衰減,以及復合材料今天無法滿足但明天可以滿足的其他應用。所以我們正在研究這些。我們正在研究二級結構和某些更容易限定和替換衍生物的元素。 A220 對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。我們在纖維、預浸料和技術方面都有各種材料,可以提供巨大的優勢和未來的機會。我們將繼續與我們的客戶合作。因此,在商業航空航天領域,帕特里克談到了灣流、達索和其他大型平台對公務機的所有滲透和長期增長,以及越來越多的飛機轉向複合材料。

  • If I flip to Space & Defense, always a lot of technology opportunities there, which we set to new platforms on the FLRAA, on space. It's just a very diversified market, and we're working on multiple programs along with sizable programs like the CH-53K, which is a very large program for us, and we're ramping up as we speak in our Washington facility. So there's a lot of opportunities out there. And again, we don't neglect the Wind and the Industrial and the Automotive all the other subsegments in Industrial that are keys are finding niches and areas where we can provide a sustainable competitive advantage. So the growth opportunity, the areas where customers want stronger, tougher, more durable, lightweight materials it's just continuing to expand. The question is on the economics and whether or not it fits within our target of what we want to invest in and where we want to drive the business going forward.

    如果我轉向太空與國防,那裡總是有很多技術機會,我們將其設置為 FLRAA 和太空的新平台。這只是一個非常多元化的市場,我們正在開展多個項目以及像 CH-53K 這樣的大型項目,這對我們來說是一個非常大的項目,我們在華盛頓工廠講話時正在加速發展。所以那裡有很多機會。再一次,我們不會忽視風能、工業和汽車,工業中所有其他關鍵的細分市場正在尋找我們可以提供可持續競爭優勢的利基和領域。因此,增長機會以及客戶需要更堅固、更堅固、更耐用、更輕質材料的領域正在不斷擴大。問題在於經濟性,以及它是否符合我們想要投資的目標以及我們想要推動業務向前發展的目標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。