Huntsman Corp (HUN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Huntsman Corporation Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Ivan Marcuse, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

您好，歡迎來到亨斯邁公司 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Ivan Marcuse。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Darryl, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Huntsman's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Joining us on the call today are Peter Huntsman, Chairman, CEO and President; and Phil Lister, Executive Vice President and CFO. This morning, before the market opened, we released our earnings for the fourth quarter '22 via press release and posted to our website, huntsman.com. We also posted a set of slides on our website, which we will use on the call this morning while presenting our results.

謝謝你，達里爾，大家早上好。歡迎來到亨斯邁 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天與我們一起參加電話會議的有董事長、首席執行官兼總裁 Peter Huntsman；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Phil Lister。今天早上，在市場開盤前，我們通過新聞稿發布了 22 年第四季度的收益，並發佈在我們的網站 huntsman.com 上。我們還在我們的網站上發布了一組幻燈片，我們將在今天早上的電話會議上展示我們的結果時使用這些幻燈片。

As a reminder, following the announcement of the sale of our Textile Effects business, we are now treating Textile Effects as discontinued operations in our income and cash flow statements and held for sale on the balance sheet. During this call, we may make statements about our projections or expectations for the future. All such statements are forward-looking statements, and while they reflect our current expectations, they involve risks and uncertainties and not guarantees of future performance.

提醒一下，在宣佈出售我們的 Textile Effects 業務後，我們現在將 Textile Effects 在我們的收入和現金流量表中視為已終止經營，並在資產負債表上持有待售。在此次電話會議中，我們可能會就我們對未來的預測或期望發表聲明。所有這些陳述都是前瞻性陳述，雖然它們反映了我們當前的預期，但它們涉及風險和不確定性，而不是對未來業績的保證。

You should review our filings with the SEC for more information regarding the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these projections or expectations. We do not plan to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements during the quarter. We will also refer to non-GAAP financial measures, such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income or loss and free cash flow. You can find reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in our earnings release, which has been posted to our website, huntsman.com.

您應該查看我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以了解有關可能導致實際結果與這些預測或預期存在重大差異的因素的更多信息。我們不打算在本季度公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述。我們還將參考非 GAAP 財務指標，例如調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的淨收入或虧損以及自由現金流。您可以在我們的收益發布中找到最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，該發布已發佈在我們的網站 huntsman.com 上。

I'll now turn the call over to Peter Huntsman, our Chairman and CEO.

我現在將電話轉給我們的董事長兼首席執行官彼得亨斯曼。

Thank you, Ivan. Good morning, everyone. And thank you for taking the time to join us. Let's start out here on Slide #5. Adjusted EBITDA for our Polyurethanes division in the fourth quarter was $37 million. Significant destocking across our markets, significant -- specifically in Europe and North America, combined with competitive pricing and historically high energy costs, placed unprecedented pressure on the Polyurethanes business throughout the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，伊万。大家，早安。感謝您抽出寶貴時間加入我們。讓我們從幻燈片 #5 開始。我們聚氨酯部門第四季度的調整後 EBITDA 為 3700 萬美元。我們市場的大量去庫存，特別是在歐洲和北美，加上具有競爭力的價格和歷史上高昂的能源成本，在整個第四季度給聚氨酯業務帶來了前所未有的壓力。

Overall sales volume in the quarter declined 22% year-on-year and 9% sequentially. The Americas and European regions accounted for all the decline as lower demand and significant destocking significantly impacted sales volumes. Our Asian markets, primarily China, did experience modest volume growth in the quarter due to slightly improved demand in insulation and automotive when compared to the fourth quarter a year ago.

本季度總銷量同比下降 22%，環比下降 9%。美洲和歐洲地區佔了所有下降的原因，因為需求下降和顯著去庫存顯著影響了銷量。我們的亞洲市場，主要是中國，由於與去年第四季度相比絕緣材料和汽車的需求略有改善，本季度的銷量確實出現了溫和增長。

European demand remains subdued. And from our vantage point, we are still clearly in a recessionary economic environment. While energy costs remained historically higher, those headwinds have improved. This improvement will help to relieve some of the pressure on our European business as we move through the first half of 2023. That said, falling costs and lower demand has triggered increased pricing pressure on MDI, and that offsets some of the benefit from lower natural gas prices.

歐洲需求仍然低迷。從我們的角度來看，我們顯然仍處於衰退的經濟環境中。儘管能源成本一直處於歷史高位，但這些不利因素有所改善。隨著我們度過 2023 年上半年，這一改進將有助於減輕我們歐洲業務的一些壓力。也就是說，成本下降和需求下降引發了 MDI 定價壓力的增加，這抵消了自然資源減少帶來的一些好處天然氣價格。

As we indicated on our previous earnings call, we are restructuring our business in Europe to better reflect the high energy cost environment. In the short run, we are also idling our smaller MDI line in Rotterdam for an extended period until end market demand improves. We have no intention of remaining an industry shock absorber as has been the case these past quarters. To be clear, Europe remains a core region for our Polyurethanes business. We will benefit for many years to come from the region's need to drive for improved energy conservation and efficiency.

正如我們在之前的財報電話會議上指出的那樣，我們正在重組我們在歐洲的業務，以更好地反映高能源成本環境。短期內，我們還將長期閒置鹿特丹較小的 MDI 生產線，直到終端市場需求改善。我們無意像過去幾個季度那樣繼續充當行業減震器。需要明確的是，歐洲仍然是我們聚氨酯業務的核心區域。我們將在未來多年受益於該地區推動提高能源節約和效率的需求。

We remain well positioned to bring energy-saving solutions to both residential and commercial construction markets as well as innovative improvement to the lightweighting of automobiles. There is some optimism that economic conditions and demand in China will improve as 2023 unfolds due to the removal of the Chinese government's Zero COVID policies. How this optimism translates into increased consumer spending and industrial activity remains to be fully seen.

我們仍然有能力為住宅和商業建築市場提供節能解決方案，並創新改進汽車的輕量化。由於中國政府取消了零 COVID 政策，人們樂觀地認為，隨著 2023 年的到來，中國的經濟狀況和需求將會改善。這種樂觀情緒如何轉化為消費者支出和工業活動的增加還有待充分觀察。

Post Chinese New Year's, we are seeing early signs of improved conditions in pricing trends and moderate demand improvements in areas such as cold chain, infrastructure and certain consumer-related markets, including furniture. China is the world's largest MDI market, accounting for approximately 40% of global capacity and demand, a steadily improving demand situation and potential economic stimulus would be a catalyst for our Polyurethanes business. Lower propylene oxide margins in China drove our equity earnings lower year-over-year.

中國農曆新年過後，我們看到了價格趨勢改善的早期跡象，以及冷鏈、基礎設施和某些消費相關市場（包括家具）等領域的需求適度改善。中國是全球最大的 MDI 市場，約佔全球產能和需求的 40%，穩步改善的需求形勢和潛在的經濟刺激將成為我們聚氨酯業務的催化劑。中國較低的環氧丙烷利潤率導致我們的股票收益同比下降。

Our joint venture contributed approximately $10 million in equity earnings for the quarter, below the $22 million reported a year ago. One of the greatest headwinds impacting our Q4 was continuing and continuing to challenge our Polyurethanes business, is the high levels of destocking we've seen in our Americas region and especially in our construction markets. Remember that 2/3 of our Polyurethanes' Americas business goes into construction-related end markets. Approximately half into commercial construction and half into residential, of which 70% is related to new residential builds.

我們的合資企業在本季度貢獻了大約 1000 萬美元的股權收益，低於一年前報告的 2200 萬美元。影響我們第四季度的最大逆風之一是繼續並繼續挑戰我們的聚氨酯業務，這是我們在美洲地區，特別是我們的建築市場看到的高水平去庫存。請記住，我們 2/3 的聚氨酯美洲業務進入與建築相關的終端市場。大約一半用於商業建築，一半用於住宅，其中 70% 與新建住宅有關。

Our construction market for composite wood products used in residential and nonresidential insulation markets were under significant downward pressure throughout the fourth quarter. These trends have continued into the first half of Q1 as we continue to see the impact of higher interest rates and their effect on downstream customer decision-making. We are hopeful that destocking in the Americas will ease as we move into the typically seasonally stronger months of March and April, giving us some confidence in this regard, is that our spray foam business, which was the first to see destocking last year, reported flat volumes year-over-year in the fourth quarter.

我們用於住宅和非住宅絕緣市場的複合木製品建築市場在整個第四季度都承受著巨大的下行壓力。這些趨勢一直持續到第一季度上半年，因為我們繼續看到更高利率的影響及其對下游客戶決策的影響。我們希望隨著我們進入 3 月和 4 月通常季節性較強的月份，美洲的去庫存將有所緩解，這讓我們在這方面有了一些信心，因為我們的噴塗泡沫業務是去年第一個去庫存的，據報導第四季度銷量同比持平。

Our Huntsman Building Solutions spray foam business ended the year with $600 million of annual sales, while the housing market may endure a more difficult year than 2022, due to higher interest rates, we remain on the right side of energy efficiency drive, and we will benefit from both improved building codes and the government's Inflation Reduction Act. Another positive trend continuing to emerge for our Polyurethanes business is the modest but steadily -- steady recovery we are seeing in our global automotive platform, which saw 7% improvement globally in the fourth quarter, with every region seeing positive volumes during the fourth quarter.

我們的 Huntsman Building Solutions 噴塗泡沫業務以 6 億美元的年銷售額結束了這一年，而住房市場可能會經歷比 2022 年更艱難的一年，由於利率較高，我們仍然站在能效驅動的正確一邊，我們將受益於改進的建築規範和政府的通貨膨脹減少法案。我們的聚氨酯業務繼續出現的另一個積極趨勢是我們在全球汽車平台上看到的溫和但穩定的複蘇，第四季度全球汽車平台增長了 7%，第四季度每個地區的銷量都呈正增長。

Approximately 15% of our Polyurethanes portfolio ended up in automotive in Q4. As we announced last quarter, we are not waiting for markets to improve but are taking decisive and proactive steps to make our company more efficient, stronger, better positioned for when the current challenging conditions abate. As we discussed last quarter, in the short term in Polyurethanes, we have adjusted MDI production to match demand. We'll continue to monitor and will adjust accordingly during 2023, both at Rotterdam and at Geismar, to ensure that we aggressively manage our working capital with cash generation as our top priority.

第四季度，我們大約 15% 的聚氨酯產品組合最終用於汽車領域。正如我們上個季度宣布的那樣，我們不是在等待市場好轉，而是在採取果斷和積極的措施，使我們的公司更有效率、更強大、更好地應對當前充滿挑戰的情況。正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，在聚氨酯的短期內，我們已經調整了 MDI 產量以滿足需求。我們將在 2023 年期間繼續監控鹿特丹和 Geismar 工廠並進行相應調整，以確保我們積極管理我們的營運資金，並將現金生成作為我們的首要任務。

Furthermore, we are moving forward aggressively on the cost reduction plans we discussed last quarter. We are on track of delivering as planned. This includes exiting geographies that are not generating acceptable returns and consolidating additional back-office functions. Most of these actions will be completed by the end of 2023. They will lower the overall cost basis for Polyurethanes by at least $60 million.

此外，我們正在積極推進上個季度討論的成本削減計劃。我們正在按計劃交付。這包括退出無法產生可接受回報的地區，以及整合額外的後台功能。這些行動中的大部分將在 2023 年底前完成。它們將使聚氨酯的總體成本基礎降低至少 6000 萬美元。

Looking forward into the first quarter, we expect to see improved -- improvement over the fourth quarter despite the typically seasonality and lighter quarter due in part to the Chinese New Year. We should expect continued destocking in the United States, but that destocking should moderate as we move through the quarter. Putting it all together, as we sit here today, we expect Polyurethanes adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter -- first quarter to be in the range of $55 million to $65 million.

展望第一季度，我們預計會比第四季度有所改善，儘管季節性和較淡的季度部分是由於農曆新年。我們應該預計美國會繼續去庫存，但隨著我們進入本季度，去庫存應該會放緩。綜上所述，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們預計聚氨酯調整後的第四季度 EBITDA - 第一季度將在 5500 萬至 6500 萬美元之間。

Let's turn to Slide #6. Performance Products reported adjusted EBITDA of $61 million for the fourth quarter, which was a healthy 20% margin, despite destocking headwinds that exasperated the typically seasonality that we see in the fourth quarter. The decline in adjusted EBITDA versus the prior year was driven primarily by a 32% decline in volumes year-over-year, but that was partially offset by a 23% improvement in unit variable margins owing to our commercial excellence initiatives and market dynamics.

讓我們轉到幻燈片#6。 Performance Products 報告第四季度調整後 EBITDA 為 6100 萬美元，這是一個健康的 20% 利潤率，儘管去庫存逆風加劇了我們在第四季度看到的典型季節性。調整後的 EBITDA 與上一年相比下降主要是由於銷量同比下降 32%，但由於我們的商業卓越計劃和市場動態，單位可變利潤率提高 23% 部分抵消了這一影響。

The volume decline in turn was driven primarily by lower demand and aggressive destocking in construction, coatings and adhesives and industrial-related markets, mostly in the Americas and European regions. We have seen signs that destocking appears to be moderating, but global demand remains muted and customers are keeping inventories low as they wait for improved visibility.

反過來，銷量下降的主要原因是建築、塗料和粘合劑以及工業相關市場的需求下降和積極去庫存，主要是在美洲和歐洲地區。我們已經看到去庫存似乎正在放緩的跡象，但全球需求仍然低迷，客戶在等待能見度提高時保持低庫存。

As we mentioned, even with these macro challenges, we were able to deliver EBITDA margins within our long-term expected range. These returns are due in large part to our ongoing commercial excellence programs and attractive industry dynamics we pointed to over the last year, as well as good cost control. Maleic anhydride and our high molecular weight ethylene amines continue to offer strong returns, despite a slowdown in end market volumes.

正如我們所提到的，即使面臨這些宏觀挑戰，我們也能夠在我們的長期預期範圍內實現 EBITDA 利潤率。這些回報在很大程度上歸功於我們在過去一年中指出的持續商業卓越計劃和有吸引力的行業動態，以及良好的成本控制。儘管終端市場銷量放緩，但馬來酸酐和我們的高分子量亞乙基胺繼續提供強勁的回報。

As indicated on prior calls, we have seen significant pressure on returns in amines into our China and European wind businesses. And it remains to be seen whether the Chinese and the EU governments' public stance for more renewable energy will come to fruition and drive improvements. Our remaining amines portfolio in Performance Products is fragmented and highly diverse, will benefit us both in the short and long term. Capital investments in our differentiated performance amines serving insulation, EV battery and semiconductor markets continues to move forward on schedule.

正如之前的電話所示，我們已經看到胺對我們中國和歐洲風能業務的回報帶來巨大壓力。中國和歐盟政府對更多可再生能源的公開立場是否會取得成果並推動改進，還有待觀察。我們在性能產品中剩餘的胺產品組合是分散且高度多樣化的，這將使我們在短期和長期都受益。對我們用於絕緣、EV 電池和半導體市場的差異化性能胺的資本投資繼續按計劃推進。

As we've stated in the past, assuming stable macro conditions, we expect these projects to start up in 2023 and deliver more than $35 million of EBITDA once they are fully ramped up and the respective markets return to a more normalized level of demand. Performance Products remains a highly attractive division in our view, and we continue to prioritize strategic growth via organic investment and inorganic opportunities over the long run.

正如我們過去所說，假設宏觀條件穩定，我們預計這些項目將在 2023 年啟動，並在它們全面啟動並且各自的市場恢復到更正常的需求水平後提供超過 3500 萬美元的 EBITDA。在我們看來，性能產品仍然是一個極具吸引力的部門，從長遠來看，我們將繼續通過有機投資和無機機會優先考慮戰略增長。

The first quarter is typically similar to the fourth quarter. The first quarter will face tough comparisons versus prior year due to lower overall volumes, driven by destocking and the more challenging global demand environment. However, we do expect to stay within our long-term EBITDA range of 20% to 25%, and we expect Performance Products first quarter adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $60 million to $70 million.

第一季度通常與第四季度相似。由於在去庫存和更具挑戰性的全球需求環境的推動下整體銷量下降，第一季度將面臨與去年同期的艱難比較。然而，我們確實希望保持在 20% 到 25% 的長期 EBITDA 範圍內，我們預計性能產品第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 將在 6000 萬美元到 7000 萬美元之間。

Let's turn to Slide #7. Advanced Materials reported adjusted EBITDA of $41 million in the quarter, which is below the fourth quarter a year ago, due primarily to lower sales volumes. Improved pricing and mix helped keep EBITDA margins only modestly below the prior year. Despite a fourth quarter decline, for the full year of 2022, Advanced Materials registered its best-ever year, and adjusted EBITDA margins were 18%, a 120-basis point improvement over 2021.

讓我們轉到幻燈片#7。 Advanced Materials 報告本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 4,100 萬美元，低於一年前的第四季度，這主要是由於銷量下降。改進的定價和組合有助於使 EBITDA 利潤率僅略低於上一年。儘管第四季度出現下滑，但在 2022 年全年，先進材料創下了有史以來最好的一年，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 18%，比 2021 年提高了 120 個基點。

The sales volume decline of 28% was due in part to our exiting of lower-margin commodity type product lines. Excluding our deselection of certain product lines, our core specialty volumes declined less than the segment's average with much of the drop attributed to destocking in several of our industrial-related markets, primarily in the Americas and Europe. Total sales fell less than volumes due to favorable pricing and mix, which helped improve our unit margin by over 20%.

銷量下降 28%，部分原因是我們退出了利潤率較低的商品類型產品線。排除我們取消選擇的某些產品線，我們的核心專業銷量下降幅度低於該細分市場的平均水平，其中大部分下降歸因於我們幾個工業相關市場（主要是美洲和歐洲）的去庫存。由於有利的定價和組合，總銷售額下降幅度小於銷量下降幅度，這有助於將我們的單位利潤率提高 20% 以上。

Our Aerospace business continues to demonstrate improving trends and increased almost 20% compared to the prior year. We expect these trends to continue through 2023 and beyond as wide-body production rates improve and airlines continue to increase orders. Our expectations remain that this important and profitable sector will return to pre-pandemic levels in 2024. Automotive revenues in the division has increased 7% compared to the prior year as sales benefited from improvements in global supply chains, combined with continued favorable trends in lightweighting and growth of electric vehicles.

我們的航空航天業務繼續呈現出改善趨勢，與上一年相比增長了近 20%。我們預計這些趨勢將持續到 2023 年及以後，因為寬體機生產率提高並且航空公司繼續增加訂單。我們仍然預計，這一重要且有利可圖的行業將在 2024 年恢復到大流行前的水平。該部門的汽車收入與上一年相比增長了 7%，原因是銷售受益於全球供應鏈的改善，以及輕量化的持續有利趨勢和電動汽車的發展。

Like in other divisions, continued destocking and cautious customer ordering patterns are weighing moderately on sales in the early part of the first quarter. In addition, we see continued headwinds in our European infrastructure coatings business and further destocking in our industrial market, specifically in the Americas. But remember that Advanced Materials has less than 10% exposure to worldwide commercial and residential construction markets.

與其他部門一樣，持續的去庫存和謹慎的客戶訂購模式對第一季度初的銷售額產生了一定的影響。此外，我們看到歐洲基礎設施塗料業務持續逆風，工業市場進一步去庫存，特別是在美洲。但請記住，Advanced Materials 在全球商業和住宅建築市場的份額不到 10%。

We expect improved results in the first quarter in 2023, driven by our aerospace and automotive businesses as well as continued effective cost controls. Combining all of this, we expect the first quarter adjusted EBITDA for this division to be in the range of $45 million to $50 million, with higher EBITDA margins than we saw in the fourth quarter. I'll now turn some time over to our Chief Financial Officer, Phil Lister. Phil?

我們預計在我們的航空航天和汽車業務以及持續有效的成本控制的推動下，2023 年第一季度的業績將有所改善。綜合所有這些，我們預計該部門第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 將在 4500 萬至 5000 萬美元之間，EBITDA 利潤率高於我們在第四季度看到的利潤率。現在我將把時間交給我們的首席財務官 Phil Lister。菲爾？

Thank you, Peter. Good morning. Let's turn to Slide 8. Adjusted EBITDA for quarter 4 was $87 million compared to $327 million in quarter 4 of 2021 and $271 million in quarter 3 of 2022. The decline over the prior year was driven by reduced volumes across our portfolio as well as lower unit margins in our Polyurethanes division. Sequentially, volumes declined by 14%, driven by the significant destocking in Europe and in North America.

謝謝你，彼得。早上好。讓我們轉到幻燈片 8。與 2021 年第 4 季度的 3.27 億美元和 2022 年第 3 季度的 2.71 億美元相比，第 4 季度的調整後 EBITDA 為 8700 萬美元。與去年同期相比下降的原因是我們投資組合的銷量減少以及我們聚氨酯部門的單位利潤率。在歐洲和北美大幅去庫存的推動下，銷量環比下降了 14%。

Seasonally, we would normally expect to see a sequential volume decline of approximately 5% across our portfolio. As a reminder, about 40% to 45% of our overall portfolio is linked to worldwide construction by commercial, residential and infrastructure spend. Unit margins in Performance Products and Advanced Materials improved, both year-on-year and sequentially, with pricing remaining firm. Polyurethanes unit margins declined as weakening demand led to price erosion in the fourth quarter, while cost of sales increased year-on-year by over $500 million annualized, driven by a significant increase in energy costs and raw materials.

在季節性方面，我們通常預計我們的產品組合中的銷量會連續下降約 5%。提醒一下，我們整體投資組合中約有 40% 至 45% 與全球商業、住宅和基礎設施支出相關。性能產品和先進材料的單位利潤率同比和環比都有所提高，價格保持堅挺。由於需求疲軟導致第四季度價格下跌，聚氨酯單位利潤率下降，而銷售成本同比增長超過 5 億美元，這是受能源成本和原材料大幅上漲的推動。

For the full year, Huntsman's raw material costs increased by approximately $1 billion, of which approximately half was as a result of increased energy costs. SG&A costs were lower by $19 million year-on-year as a result of our cost optimization program. We closed the year at 9% SG&A to sales, an improvement on 2021 and ahead of our Investor Day commitments. Year-on-year, foreign exchange movements impacted the business by approximately $20 million with a stronger U.S. dollar compared to quarter 4 of 2021.

全年，亨斯邁的原材料成本增加了約 10 億美元，其中約一半是由於能源成本增加。由於我們的成本優化計劃，SG&A 成本同比降低了 1900 萬美元。我們以 9% 的 SG&A 銷售額結束了這一年，比 2021 年有所改善，並且提前於我們的投資者日承諾。與 2021 年第 4 季度相比，美元走強，外匯變動對業務的影響約為 2000 萬美元。

We also saw a decline in our equity earnings from our China propylene oxide joint venture with lower demand in China, placing pressure on margins. Adjusted EBITDA margins declined to 5% in the quarter, driven by Polyurethanes at 3%, while Performance Products and Advanced Materials continued to deliver higher returns at 20% and 15%, respectively.

我們還發現，由於中國需求下降，我們的中國環氧丙烷合資企業的股權收益有所下降，給利潤率帶來壓力。本季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率下降至 5%，受聚氨酯業務 3% 的推動，而高性能產品和先進材料繼續提供更高的回報率，分別為 20% 和 15%。

Let's turn to Slide 9. With our European restructuring, we have increased our cost optimization target to a $280 million annualized run rate by the end of 2023. As a reminder, approximately half the savings are coming from SG&A reduction and half from cost of sales. We closed the year with an annualized run rate of approximately $190 million compared to $160 million at the end of quarter 3. More specifically, for our European restructuring, we have completed the majority of Works council discussions. We had some benefit from the European restructuring late in the fourth quarter with some early headcount reductions.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 9。通過我們的歐洲重組，我們已將成本優化目標提高到到 2023 年底達到 2.8 億美元的年化運行率。提醒一下，大約一半的節省來自 SG&A 的減少，一半來自銷售成本.與第三季度末的 1.6 億美元相比，我們以大約 1.9 億美元的年化運行率結束了這一年。更具體地說，對於我們的歐洲重組，我們已經完成了勞資委員會的大部分討論。我們從第四季度末的歐洲重組中受益，早期裁員。

The majority of reductions and reshaping of our footprint in Europe will occur during 2023 with a targeted annualized run rate of $40 million of savings by the end of the year. In addition, our move to the new global business service hubs in Poland and Costa Rica continues at pace with approximately 100 positions already filled. As part of our continued focus on functional spend, we have also completed the handover of certain IT activities to a managed services third-party provider, saving approximately $15 million on an annualized basis.

我們在歐洲的足蹟的大部分減少和重塑將在 2023 年進行，目標是到今年年底每年節省 4000 萬美元。此外，我們繼續向位於波蘭和哥斯達黎加的新全球商業服務中心遷移，目前已招聘了大約 100 個職位。作為我們持續關注職能支出的一部分，我們還完成了將某些 IT 活動移交給託管服務第三方提供商的工作，每年節省約 1500 萬美元。

Within Polyurethanes, we continue to reduce headcount as we work to align ongoing costs with current profit margins. In quarter 1, 2023, we will complete the previously announced exits from our Southeast Asia business, which will add to the already completed exit of our South American business in 2022. Overall, we remain confident of achieving our $280 million annualized run rate target by the end of 2023.

在聚氨酯部門，我們繼續裁員，努力使持續成本與當前利潤率保持一致。在 2023 年第一季度，我們將完成先前宣布的東南亞業務退出，這將增加我們在 2022 年完成的南美業務退出。總體而言，我們仍然有信心實現 2.8 億美元的年化運營率目標2023 年底。

Outside of our formal cost optimization program, we remain focused on continuously improving our cost base to meet current economic conditions, which include persistently high inflation. We'll be extremely vigilant of any discretionary spend, particularly in our European Polyurethanes business, given current levels of profitability. As Peter mentioned earlier, we will be idling the smaller of our 2 Rotterdam MDI units for an extended period due to current end market demand and we have also idled 1 of our 3 lines in Geismar, Louisiana until we see sustained improvement in the North American construction market.

在我們正式的成本優化計劃之外，我們仍然專注於不斷改善我們的成本基礎，以滿足當前的經濟狀況，其中包括持續高通脹。鑑於目前的盈利水平，我們將對任何可自由支配的支出保持高度警惕，尤其是在我們的歐洲聚氨酯業務中。正如 Peter 之前提到的，由於當前的終端市場需求，我們將長期閒置 2 個鹿特丹 MDI 裝置中較小的一個，並且我們還閒置了位於路易斯安那州蓋斯馬的 3 條生產線中的 1 條，直到我們看到北美的持續改善建築市場。

Both units can be brought back online as demand dictates. Combined, we expect to save approximately $10 million in cost in 2023. Turning to Slide 10. Fourth quarter operating cash flow from continuing operations was strong at $297 million, and we closed the year at $892 million or a 77% adjusted EBITDA conversion rate. Free cash flow for the fourth quarter was $211 million, with $620 million for the full year, $542 million excluding net proceeds from the Albemarle litigation settlement. These figures equate to a free cash flow conversion rate of 54%, including the Albemarle settlement and 47%, excluding Albemarle, both in excess of our 40% target for 2022 set out at our 2021 Investor Day. Capital expenditure from continuing operations was $272 million for 2022, $290 million including Textile Effects, within the guidance level we gave this time last year.

兩個單元都可以根據需要恢復在線。合併後，我們預計到 2023 年將節省大約 1000 萬美元的成本。轉到幻燈片 10。第四季度來自持續經營的經營現金流強勁，達到 2.97 億美元，我們以 8.92 億美元或 77% 的調整後 EBITDA 轉換率結束了這一年。第四季度的自由現金流為 2.11 億美元，全年為 6.2 億美元，其中 5.42 億美元不包括 Albemarle 訴訟和解的淨收益。這些數字相當於 54% 的自由現金流轉換率，包括 Albemarle 和解協議和 47%，不包括 Albemarle，均超過我們在 2021 年投資者日設定的 2022 年 40% 的目標。 2022 年持續經營的資本支出為 2.72 億美元，其中包括 Textile Effects 在內的 2.9 億美元，處於我們去年這個時候給出的指導水平之內。

We are focusing intently now on our spend on projects in Performance Products, targeting energy-saving installations, semiconductors and electric vehicles. Given the current economic environment, we expect to reduce capital expenditure in 2023 compared to 2022 with a targeted range of $240 million to $250 million. Beyond CapEx, some guidance on other elements of cash flow in 2023. Interest payments should be similar to 2022. Our cash tax rate in 2023 will be a slight headwind compared to 2022 with full year bonus depreciation of our Geismar splitter project rolling off.

我們現在專注於我們在性能產品項目上的支出，目標是節能裝置、半導體和電動汽車。鑑於當前的經濟環境，我們預計 2023 年的資本支出將比 2022 年減少，目標範圍為 2.4 億美元至 2.5 億美元。除資本支出外，還有一些關於 2023 年現金流其他要素的指導。利息支付應與 2022 年類似。與 2022 年相比，我們 2023 年的現金稅率將略有不利，因為我們的 Geismar 分離器項目的全年紅利折舊率開始下降。

As we stated on our Q3 earnings call, restructuring cash spend in '23 will be higher than in 2022 as we continue to work through our European restructuring program. Pension contributions are expected to provide a slight tailwind in 2023, down $10 million to approximately $40 million this year. Note, with regard to pension, there will be an adverse noncash impact on adjusted EBITDA of approximately $40 million in 2023 compared to 2022.

正如我們在第三季度財報電話會議上所說，隨著我們繼續開展歐洲重組計劃，23 年的重組現金支出將高於 2022 年。養老金繳款預計將在 2023 年提供輕微的推動力，今年將減少 1000 萬美元至約 4000 萬美元。請注意，關於養老金，與 2022 年相比，2023 年調整後的 EBITDA 將受到約 4000 萬美元的非現金不利影響。

Operating working capital at the end of 2022 was lower at 11% of sales, and this remains a key variable for 2023 cash flow, depending upon the level of economic activity and raw material costs that developed during the course of the year. In the short term, we expect to see a seasonal cash outflow in quarter 1, which will also reflect the current lower level of profitability as well as our annual insurance premiums.

2022 年底的運營營運資金佔銷售額的比例較低，為 11%，這仍然是 2023 年現金流的一個關鍵變量，具體取決於年內經濟活動水平和原材料成本。短期內，我們預計第一季度將出現季節性現金流出，這也將反映出當前較低的盈利水平以及我們的年度保費。

Our balance sheet remains strong, and we remain firmly committed to our investment-grade rating. We closed 2022 with $1.8 billion of liquidity and net debt leverage of 0.9x. As a reminder, the expected closure of our Textile Effects sale later this month will add net after-tax cash proceeds of approximately $0.5 billion, and we currently expect to make at least $400 million of share repurchases in 2023.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，我們仍然堅定地致力於我們的投資級評級。到 2022 年，我們的流動資金為 18 億美元，淨債務槓桿率為 0.9 倍。提醒一下，預計本月晚些時候結束我們的 Textile Effects 銷售將增加約 5 億美元的稅後現金淨收益，我們目前預計將在 2023 年進行至少 4 億美元的股票回購。

Adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $0.04 per share, $3.13 for the full year. In quarter 4, we repurchased approximately $250 million of shares at an average price of $27.39. Our adjusted effective tax rate was 20% for the full year. For modeling purposes, in 2023, we expect an increase in our adjusted effective tax rate to approximately 24% to 26%, due in part for the accounting impact from a valuation allowance in our European Polyurethanes business recorded in Q4 2022.

第四季度調整後每股收益為 0.04 美元，全年為 3.13 美元。在第 4 季度，我們以平均 27.39 美元的價格回購了大約 2.5 億美元的股票。我們調整後的全年有效稅率為 20%。出於建模目的，我們預計 2023 年調整後的有效稅率將增加至約 24% 至 26%，部分原因是 2022 年第四季度記錄的歐洲聚氨酯業務估值備抵的會計影響。

Our long-term expectation remains an adjusted effective tax rate of 22% to 24%. We have also increased our dividend by 12% to $0.95 per share, which will add approximately $10 million of net cash outlay in 2023. With this dividend increase, combined with share repurchases, we would expect approximately a 10% return of capital yield to shareholders in 2023 at current levels of market capitalization.

我們的長期預期仍然是調整後的有效稅率為 22% 至 24%。我們還將股息增加 12% 至每股 0.95 美元，這將在 2023 年增加約 1000 萬美元的淨現金支出。隨著股息的增加，加上股票回購，我們預計股東的資本收益率約為 10%按照目前的市值水平，到 2023 年。

Peter, back to you.

彼得，回到你身邊。

Thank you, Phil. In conclusion, as we close the chapter on one of our company's most challenging quarter, I'd like to take a few minutes and express what we are presently seeing in the industry and what we are doing in response. In the fourth quarter, we saw 3 major headwinds that impacted our performance. The first of these was the near record high costs of energy. As we move into the first quarter, we are seeing some moderation in energy prices. However, up to the present time, Europe continues to see gas and corresponding utility costs, 7 to 10x higher than in North America.

謝謝你，菲爾。最後，在我們結束關於我們公司最具挑戰性的季度之一的章節時，我想花幾分鐘時間來表達一下我們目前在行業中看到的情況以及我們正在採取的應對措施。在第四季度，我們看到了影響我們業績的三大不利因素。其中第一個是接近歷史最高水平的能源成本。隨著我們進入第一季度，我們看到能源價格有所放緩。然而，到目前為止，歐洲的天然氣和相應的公用事業成本仍然比北美高出 7 到 10 倍。

The relief that we are seeing has more to do with a mild winter in Europe and industrial demand destruction rather than any structural change. I do not see a return in the coming years wherein prices will compete with North American gas and utilities. To mitigate this, we announced 4 months ago a $40 million cost savings plan as we recalibrate our European cost structure. We continued to remain on track to having this completed by the end of this year. This does not mark a retreat from our European market, but rather a longer-term commitment to compete and create shareholder value in the face of new market realities.

我們看到的緩解更多與歐洲暖冬和工業需求破壞有關，而不是任何結構性變化。我認為未來幾年不會出現價格與北美天然氣和公用事業競爭的情況。為了緩解這種情況，我們在 4 個月前宣布了一項 4000 萬美元的成本節約計劃，因為我們重新調整了我們的歐洲成本結構。我們繼續按計劃在今年年底前完成這項工作。這並不意味著我們從歐洲市場撤退，而是在面對新的市場現實時，更長期地致力於競爭和創造股東價值。

We continue to assess the energy, regulatory and economic future of Europe. We will continue to possibly see further restructuring with our European footprint. The uncompetitive energy situation has caused the second headwind of our business, an inflationary drag on overall demand for our products. In the EU, this has been caused by rising energy costs and poor energy policies. In the U.S., we are seeing similar conditions due to rising interest rates. We believe that our Rotterdam MDI plant is one of the more competitive MDI plants in Europe.

我們繼續評估歐洲的能源、監管和經濟未來。我們可能會繼續看到我們在歐洲足蹟的進一步重組。缺乏競爭力的能源形勢給我們的業務帶來了第二個不利因素，通貨膨脹拖累了我們產品的整體需求。在歐盟，這是由於能源成本上升和能源政策不力造成的。在美國，由於利率上升，我們看到了類似的情況。我們相信我們的鹿特丹 MDI 工廠是歐洲最具競爭力的 MDI 工廠之一。

However, we will only produce that which we can competitively sell. We will idle 1 of our 2 lines in Rotterdam that represent about 1/3 of our Rotterdam capacity. In our Geismar, Louisiana MDI plant, we have closed 1 of our 3 lines that represents about 30% of our output. While both of these lines can be restarted, we will only do so when conditions justify such a move. We've also taken a similar step in our Performance Products and to a lesser degree, our Advanced Materials division, so that we calibrate production to actual demand. This will allow us to generate better working capital and pass-through raw material costs more effectively.

但是，我們只會生產我們可以有競爭力地銷售的產品。我們將閒置我們在鹿特丹的 2 條生產線中的 1 條，這些生產線約占我們鹿特丹產能的 1/3。在我們位於路易斯安那州蓋斯馬的 MDI 工廠，我們關閉了 3 條生產線中的 1 條，約占我們產量的 30%。雖然這兩條線路都可以重新啟動，但我們只會在條件證明這樣的舉措合理時才會這樣做。我們也在我們的性能產品中採取了類似的步驟，並在較小程度上採取了我們的先進材料部門，以便我們根據實際需求調整生產。這將使我們能夠產生更好的營運資金並更有效地轉嫁原材料成本。

The last negative impact in the fourth quarter was an unusually strong inventory reduction that was felt across all of our products, but particularly in Europe and North American construction. I believe that from where we see things in the first quarter that inventory levels are very low on the chemicals portion of our customers' inventory. However, we have much less visibility in our customers' finished product inventory. What a building material supplier keeps in warehouses or in unsold houses, they are all part of an inventory change that impacts our products.

第四季度的最後一個負面影響是我們所有產品都感受到異常強勁的庫存減少，尤其是在歐洲和北美建築業。我相信，從我們在第一季度看到的情況來看，我們客戶庫存中化學品部分的庫存水平非常低。但是，我們對客戶成品庫存的了解要少得多。建築材料供應商在倉庫或未售出的房屋中存放的東西，都是影響我們產品的庫存變化的一部分。

These are parts of the -- there are parts of the construction materials segments where we continue to see destocking taking place. Other segments are operating their plants and mills around just-in-time delivery. In the aerospace, automotive and spray foam insulation, we see much tighter change than we do in other areas. We will continue to manage our working capital accordingly and push for higher prices to recover more of our lost margins. As we look through the remainder of the first quarter, we continue to see gradual improvements across the board.

這些是 - 我們繼續看到建築材料部門的某些部分正在發生去庫存。其他部門正在圍繞準時交貨運營他們的工廠和工廠。在航空航天、汽車和噴塗泡沫隔熱材料方面，我們看到的變化比其他領域要嚴重得多。我們將繼續相應地管理我們的營運資金，並推動更高的價格以收回更多的利潤損失。當我們回顧第一季度的剩餘時間時，我們繼續看到全面的逐步改善。

China continues to show signs of improved demand and gradual improvements in pricing as the economy loosens its previously enforced COVID restrictions. Early visibility into market conditions for Q2 are murky at best. Regarding the second half of this year, I can see a number of scenarios. It could mean hundreds of millions of dollars positively or negatively. To give a meaningful full year outlook at this time would be speculation at best. What we will continue to do is to react with each variability in the macro marketplace and make decisions that create shareholder value.

隨著經濟放鬆之前實施的 COVID 限制，中國繼續顯示出需求改善和定價逐步改善的跡象。對第二季度市場狀況的早期可見性充其量是模糊的。關於今年下半年，我可以看到一些情景。這可能意味著數億美元的正面或負面影響。此時給出有意義的全年展望充其量只是猜測。我們將繼續做的是對宏觀市場的每一個變化做出反應，並做出創造股東價值的決策。

We will do this by remaining open-minded as to our overall portfolio and where we create lasting value. We will continue to assess our global footprint as it pertains to our cost, from where we source our raw materials to our internally produced products. We will preserve our strong balance sheet and deploy capital, as was mentioned earlier in this call, to enhance shareholder value as we buy in at least $400 million of share repurchases this year and increase our dividend by 12%. We continue to aggressively look at M&A opportunities, particularly in our Performance Products and Advanced Materials divisions, but we will remain disciplined and not overpay for assets.

我們將通過對我們的整體投資組合和我們創造持久價值的地方保持開放的態度來做到這一點。我們將繼續評估我們的全球足跡，因為它與我們的成本有關，從我們採購原材料的地方到我們內部生產的產品。正如本次電話會議早些時候提到的那樣，我們將保持強勁的資產負債表並部署資本，以提高股東價值，因為我們今年購買了至少 4 億美元的股票回購併將股息增加 12%。我們繼續積極尋找併購機會，特別是在我們的性能產品和先進材料部門，但我們將保持紀律，不會為資產多付錢。

I personally believe that the steps that we have initiated and continue to take going forward will allow us to take maximum advantage of whatever comes our way. We have a strong balance sheet, great customer segments, a strong focus on cash and working capital, and we'll relentlessly match our cost structure to the realities of the marketplace. In short, we are well positioned to take advantage as markets improve.

我個人認為，我們已經啟動並將繼續採取的步驟將使我們能夠最大限度地利用我們遇到的一切。我們擁有強大的資產負債表、龐大的客戶群、對現金和營運資金的高度關注，我們將堅持不懈地使我們的成本結構與市場現實相匹配。簡而言之，隨著市場的改善，我們處於有利地位。

With that, operator, why don't we take any questions?

那麼，接線員，我們為什麼不回答任何問題呢？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Peter, you mentioned some strength in MDI pricing in China recently. Can you give a little more color what you're seeing in that country on the ground right now?

Peter，您最近提到了中國 MDI 定價的一些優勢。你能給你現在在那個國家看到的更多顏色嗎？

Yes. Following the Chinese New Year, we've seen prices go up to, on average, around RMB 15,800 a ton. Now again, that's on average. You're going to see the specialty side of that going up higher and you're going to see some of the more commoditized going down lower than that. But that's up from where we were in the fourth quarter of around RMB 14,000 per ton. So we are seeing some progress there in pricing. We are seeing some progress in demand. And obviously, we hope that it continues.

是的。農曆新年過後，我們看到價格平均上漲至每噸人民幣 15,800 元左右。再一次，這是平均水平。你會看到它的專業性方面上升得更高，你會看到一些更商品化的方面比它下降得更低。但這比我們在第四季度的每噸 14,000 元人民幣左右有所上漲。因此，我們在定價方面看到了一些進展。我們看到需求有所改善。顯然，我們希望它繼續下去。

As we think about the Chinese market, I think broadly around 3 broader areas that which is consumer-related growth, that which is what I would call stimulus related or infrastructure spending and so forth and then that which is export. I think the export end, an end that we play very little in, by the way, continues to remain pretty sluggish, consumer spending, and that would be in automotive and so forth, some of the areas that we compete in is going to be at this early point -- in this early view, that's going to be the stronger of the 3.

當我們考慮中國市場時，我大致考慮了 3 個更廣泛的領域，即與消費者相關的增長，我稱之為刺激相關或基礎設施支出等，然後是出口。我認為出口端，順便說一句，我們很少參與的端，繼續保持低迷，消費者支出，這將是汽車等，我們競爭的一些領域將是在這個早期點——在這個早期觀點中，這將是 3 中的強者。

And then we're gradually seeing the uplift in infrastructure stimulus spending. And that's going to be -- as you think about insulation, as you think about some of the infrastructure projects and so forth that would require our products across the board, renewable energy, the rewiring of -- recabling of a lot of the energy infrastructure.

然後我們逐漸看到基礎設施刺激支出的增加。這將是——當你想到隔熱材料時，當你想到一些基礎設施項目等等時，這些項目將需要我們的產品，可再生能源，重新佈線——許多能源基礎設施的重新佈線.

So let's remember that China has been down. Many segments of that economy has been down for nearly 2 years. And this is not going to be just post Chinese New Year's people come back to work the next week and everything is running at full capacity or not running at full capacity. I think it's going to be a gradual improvement that we'll see throughout the first, going into the second quarter.

所以讓我們記住，中國一直在下滑。該經濟的許多部門已經下滑了近 2 年。而且這不僅僅是春節過後人們下週回來工作，一切都在滿負荷運轉或沒有滿負荷運轉。我認為這將是一個漸進的改進，我們將在整個第一季度看到，進入第二季度。

And particularly around that consumer uplift and around the infrastructure uplift, I think that we're going to continue to see improvements in demand and improvements in pricing.

特別是圍繞消費者的提升和基礎設施的提升，我認為我們將繼續看到需求的改善和定價的改善。

Our next question comes from the line of Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

Peter, was all the uncertainties -- acknowledging all the uncertainties, would you say that the second quarter is likely trending better than the first?

彼得，所有的不確定性——承認所有的不確定性，你會說第二季度的趨勢可能比第一季度好嗎？

Yes, I would say that it certainly is. Look, I would think that every one of our quarters, going throughout the year, I would hope would be trending better. But I think that there's just -- when I talked in my prepared remarks around the murkiness that we're seeing in the overall market, that's just -- the further out that we go through 2023 when we think about things like GDP and a possible recession, China continuing to improve, construction in North America, these are going to be the flywheels that really are going to be determining if we've got something that's approaching $1 billion a year or not.

是的，我會說它肯定是。看，我認為我們的每個季度，全年，我希望趨勢會更好。但我認為，當我在準備好的發言中談到我們在整個市場中看到的陰暗面時，那隻是 - 當我們考慮 GDP 和可能的情況時，我們將在 2023 年走得更遠經濟衰退，中國持續改善，北美建設，這些將成為真正決定我們是否有接近每年 10 億美元的東西的飛輪。

I mean we need to see things like the completion of the de-inventorying that's taking place. As I said, what we're seeing from the chemical side, a lot of that de-inventorying is already done on the chemical side. But again, we're not going to see building materials, and we're not going to see customers restock their inventory on the chemical side until their finished goods, they go all the way down into the consumer areas. We're not going to see ours uplift until that end of the supply chain and that end of the inventory is cleaned up.

我的意思是我們需要看到諸如正在發生的去庫存化之類的事情。正如我所說，我們從化學方面看到的是，很多去庫存已經在化學方面完成。但同樣，我們不會看到建築材料，我們不會看到客戶在他們的成品之前補充他們在化學品方面的庫存，他們一直到消費領域。在供應鏈的那一端和庫存的那一端被清理之前，我們不會看到我們的提升。

We did talk about in the call that the -- our reliance on construction and home and commercial residential construction, particularly in North America, that will range anything from what we're seeing right now in retrofits, which is a stronger end of the business than new starts; spray foam, which is the stronger end of the business than what we're seeing in OSB for instance. So there are various parts within that construction segments that are growing and -- or I should say, at least recovering nicely.

我們在電話會議上確實談到了——我們對建築、住宅和商業住宅建築的依賴，特別是在北美，這將包括我們現在在改造中看到的任何東西，這是業務更強大的一端比起新的開始；噴塗泡沫，這是比我們在 OSB 中看到的更強大的業務。因此，建築領域的各個部分都在增長——或者我應該說，至少恢復得很好。

And there are other areas that I think we're going to have to continue to see inventories clear out a little bit more. We're also going to have to see something happen with interest rates where consumers feel that there's some stability and gives them some reason to go make what is usually the largest single purchase that people make in their lives around construction.

還有其他領域，我認為我們將不得不繼續看到更多的庫存清理。我們也將不得不看到利率發生變化，消費者會覺得有一定的穩定性，並給他們一些理由去進行人們在生活中圍繞建築進行的通常最大的單次購買。

So when we think about what's upsetting our potential, I think that the biggest variables I look towards is our inventory, construction returning back to, not full out but certainly better than it is today, particularly in North America. Energy being at a competitive rate, particularly in Europe. Again, I'm glad to see the lower prices in Europe, but I'm afraid of that lower prices because you've seen a 25%, 30% demand drop on the industrial side, which means a massive deindustrialization that's taken place.

因此，當我們考慮是什麼破壞了我們的潛力時，我認為我所關注的最大變量是我們的庫存、建築恢復到沒有完全恢復但肯定比現在好，特別是在北美。能源價格具有競爭力，尤其是在歐洲。同樣，我很高興看到歐洲的價格下降，但我擔心價格下降，因為工業方面的需求下降了 25%、30%，這意味著大規模的去工業化已經發生。

And I think that as we look across the Americas, you're going to probably see more production, more gas, more oil production in North America that will be moderating energy prices throughout 2023. And of course, China needs to continue to move forward. Again, in all those areas, we will need to go through the roof in demand, but I think that we need to see a steady recovery taking place.

我認為，當我們放眼整個美洲時，您可能會看到北美的產量、天然氣和石油產量增加，這將在整個 2023 年降低能源價格。當然，中國需要繼續向前發展.同樣，在所有這些領域，我們都需要突破需求的頂峰，但我認為我們需要看到穩步復甦。

Aleksey, just to add, typically, of course, you would see a seasonal uptick from quarter 1 to quarter 2 irrespective as we move through the winter months and construction tends to pick up between Q1 and Q2 as well, which you should factor into your thought process, yes.

Aleksey，只是補充一點，當然，通常情況下，您會看到從第 1 季度到第 2 季度的季節性上升，無論我們如何度過冬季月份，而且在第 1 季度和第 2 季度之間建設也往往會加快，您應該將其考慮在內思維過程，是的。

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Kevin McCarthy。

Peter, I have a 2-part question on your Polyurethanes business. First, for the portion that's exposed to construction, can you remind us how much goes into new structures versus retrofit of existing structures? And then secondly, what would you need to see to consider restarting the idle lines at Rotterdam and Geismar?

彼得，我有一個關於您的聚氨酯業務的兩部分問題。首先，對於暴露在施工中的部分，您能否提醒我們新結構與現有結構的改造有多少？其次，考慮重啟鹿特丹和蓋斯馬的閒置線路，您需要注意什麼？

Well, as we look at our North American business figure that's, 2/3 of that is going to be around residential and 1/3 of that is going to be commercial. In Europe, that's going to be closer to a 50-50 sort of a number. It's going to be much more weighted towards commercial than residential. And as we think about our residential side, about 30% of that is going to be retrofitting and about 70% of that is going to be new home build. So again, that will fluctuate a little bit and both of those are opportunities for the spray foam.

好吧，當我們看一下我們的北美商業數據時，其中 2/3 將圍繞住宅，而其中 1/3 將是商業。在歐洲，這將接近 50-50 之類的數字。它將更傾向於商業而不是住宅。當我們考慮住宅方面時，其中約 30% 將用於改造，其中約 70% 將用於新建住宅。所以再次，這會有點波動，這兩者都是噴霧泡沫的機會。

And I think that, again, as we see the new build slowdown, as we see retrofit of home remodeling increase, that's -- we're losing some on the spray foam side, but we're gaining some on the spray foam side on the retrofit side.

而且我認為，當我們看到新建築放緩時，當我們看到家庭改造的改造增加時，那就是 - 我們在噴塗泡沫方面失去了一些，但我們在噴塗泡沫方面獲得了一些改造方面。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Two-part question. Are Textile Effects inventories still in your inventory, on your balance sheet? Or are they in a separate category? And secondly, when you talk to -- when you look at your relationships with contractors in the United States, sometimes people feel that contractors are now finishing up their backlog. And then what will happen is a period of greater demand weakness. Is that something that you see? Or that's something that's more invisible to you?

兩部分的問題。 Textile Effects 庫存是否仍在您的資產負債表上？還是它們在一個單獨的類別中？其次，當你與美國承包商交談時，當你審視你與承包商的關係時，有時人們會覺得承包商現在正在完成他們的積壓工作。然後會發生一段需求更疲軟的時期。那是你看到的東西嗎？或者那是你更看不見的東西？

I'll take a stab at the latter part of that and let Phil take the Textile Effects part of the question. I think that a lot of the slowdown that we saw in contractors finishing up their jobs, I think that, that takes into a lot of the slowdown that we saw in the fourth quarter going into the first quarter. I think that the inventories, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, our inventories also would include downstream inventories that would be included in unsold homes.

我會在後面的部分進行嘗試，讓 Phil 回答問題的紡織效果部分。我認為，我們在承包商完成工作時看到的很多放緩，我認為，這導致了我們在第四季度進入第一季度時看到的很多放緩。我認為，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們的庫存也將包括下游庫存，這些庫存將包含在未售出的房屋中。

We believe, again, just anecdotally, I don't want to talk -- we know what's going on, on every situation. But we believe that, that supply chain is spinning, the inventory is spinning. And hopefully, as we get into March and April, we're hoping that we start to see that we're going to see a greater demand. But everything that we're seeing and everything that we're hearing is that contractors at this point, they're working on very thin inventories, working through that supply chain.

我們再次相信，只是軼事，我不想談論——我們知道在每一種情況下發生了什麼。但我們相信，供應鏈在旋轉，庫存在旋轉。並且希望，當我們進入三月和四月時，我們希望我們開始看到我們將看到更大的需求。但我們所看到和聽到的一切都是承包商在這一點上，他們正在處理非常薄的庫存，通過供應鏈工作。

Jeff, to answer the question on Textile Effects, we recorded Textile Effects as a discontinued operation or held for sale on the balance sheet. So that's excluding -- it's excluded from our numbers and everything that we've been providing to you in terms of our underlying cash flow performance EBITDA that all excludes Textile Effects. The 11% working -- operating working capital percentage of sales I gave to you in the script is also excluding Textile Effects.

傑夫，為了回答有關 Textile Effects 的問題，我們在資產負債表上將 Textile Effects 記錄為已停止運營或持有待售。因此，這被排除在外 - 它被排除在我們的數字以及我們根據我們的基本現金流量表現 EBITDA 提供給您的所有內容之外，這些都排除了 Textile Effects。我在腳本中給你的銷售額的 11% 營運資本百分比也不包括 Textile Effects。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自邁克哈里森與海港研究合作夥伴的合作。

I was hoping that you could give us a little bit more of an update on the Performance products, some of the capital investments you're making in polyurethane catalysts, the semiconductor cleans and ethylene carbonate for batteries. You talked about the EBITDA contribution being a 2024 number and kind of contingent on demand being more normalized. But maybe give us a little better sense of the timing of some of those commercial sales and, I guess, what your expectations are, I guess, in '23 and going into '24?

我希望你能給我們更多關於性能產品的更新，你在聚氨酯催化劑、半導體清潔劑和電池用碳酸乙烯酯方面的一些資本投資。您談到 EBITDA 的貢獻是 2024 年的數字，並且某種程度上取決於需求更加正常化。但也許讓我們更好地了解其中一些商業銷售的時間，我想，我猜你在 23 年和進入 24 年的期望是什麼？

Mike, good morning to you as well. And I think as we look at this, again, rather blanket statement, if we had the carbonates project done today, I think that it's safe to say that the demand for the volume is going to be there 100% today. Now that doesn't mean that the pricing and the margins are going to be as strong as they otherwise would be during a more robust time period. But the demand is certainly there, and we see that project being completed sometime during the early part of the fourth quarter.

邁克，你也早上好。我認為，當我們再次審視這一籠統的聲明時，如果我們今天完成了碳酸鹽岩項目，我認為可以肯定地說，今天對數量的需求將達到 100%。現在，這並不意味著定價和利潤率會像在更強勁的時期內那樣強勁。但需求肯定存在，我們看到該項目在第四季度初期的某個時候完成。

And so by the time you get qualifications done, and I would say the same thing is going to be on the -- that's where the ultra-pure carbonates material -- as you look at the ultra-pure amines product that's going into the semiconductor industry, again, that will be a fourth quarter event. And that will -- that product is going to take longer to qualify. So think of that project being done in the fourth quarter and probably taking the first half of next year to be fully qualified. And so you're looking at probably the middle part of '24.

所以當你完成資格認證時，我會說同樣的事情會發生在 - 那就是超純碳酸鹽材料 - 當你看到進入半導體的超純胺產品時行業，再次，這將是第四季度的事件。這將 - 該產品將需要更長的時間才能獲得資格。所以想想那個在第四季度完成的項目，可能要到明年上半年才能完全合格。所以你可能正在看 24 年的中期。

And before that facility is in, what I would consider to be ready for a sold-out position. Again, we can't qualify the materials until we're actually producing the material. So it's impossible to prequalify those materials. As we think about the third project, and that's around polyurethane catalysts and other materials that will be coming out of our Petfurdo, Hungary site, obviously, that's going to be dependent on the growth of our spray foam business in Europe. We see that business continuing to grow. It's obviously starting at a very small pace right now.

在該設施投入使用之前，我認為已經為售罄的位置做好了準備。同樣，在我們實際生產材料之前，我們無法對材料進行鑑定。所以不可能對這些材料進行資格預審。當我們考慮第三個項目時，它圍繞著我們匈牙利 Petfurdo 工廠生產的聚氨酯催化劑和其他材料，顯然，這將取決於我們在歐洲的噴塗泡沫業務的增長。我們看到該業務繼續增長。顯然，它現在的起步速度非常小。

And we've -- senior management, the company spent time in both the U.K. and the EU promoting and pushing for them to be more aggressive in their green new deal, if you will, around building insulation and energy efficiencies. And I think that we're going to continue to make good progress there. That will probably not be a project when it's completed by the end of this year. That will probably not be a project that's sold out on day 1. It wasn't designed to be that way. We need capacity as we grow the business over the next couple of years. And so all things being equal, we should be, I would imagine, at some sort of what I would say a normalized run rate sometime in the middle to the third quarter of next year as we get the plant's products qualified, the plant is lined out and as we start to see a return coming into the spray foam.

而且我們 - 高級管理層，公司在英國和歐盟花了很多時間促進和推動他們在他們的綠色新交易中更加積極，如果你願意的話，圍繞建築絕緣和能源效率。我認為我們將繼續在那裡取得良好進展。到今年年底完成時，這可能不是一個項目。這可能不會是一個在第一天就售罄的項目。它不是設計成那樣的。隨著我們在未來幾年發展業務，我們需要容量。因此，在所有條件相同的情況下，我想，我們應該在明年中期到第三季度的某個時候達到某種我所說的正常運行率，因為我們使工廠的產品合格，工廠內襯出來，當我們開始看到返回進入噴霧泡沫時。

So and that should be about a $35 million-ish sort of a run rate once that takes place. But again, I want to be absolutely clear. When the plant starts up, fourth quarter -- beginning of fourth quarter of this year, don't expect to see that sort of run rate on day 1. It will take some time to get qualified on a number of these products.

因此，一旦發生，這應該是大約 3500 萬美元的運行率。但是，我想再說一遍。當工廠啟動時，第四季度——今年第四季度初，不要指望在第一天就看到那種運行率。要獲得這些產品中的許多產品的資格還需要一些時間。

Our next question comes from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Laurence Alexander 與 Jefferies 的對話。

This is Kevin Estok on for Laurence. I guess my first one was just curious how willing you are to flex your balance sheet before you see order trends improve? And when you refer to green shoots in China automotive and aerospace, I was just wondering if you could maybe give us a little more detail, I guess, how much improvement are you seeing there?

這是勞倫斯的凱文·埃斯托克。我想我的第一個問題只是好奇，在看到訂單趨勢改善之前，您有多願意調整資產負債表？當你提到中國汽車和航空航天領域的萌芽時，我只是想知道你是否可以給我們提供更多細節，我想，你看到了多少改進？

Yes. I would say that what we're seeing in Aerospace in China is a relatively immaterial portion of our Aerospace business. The vast majority of our demand on Aerospace is going to be between Boeing and Airbus. And specifically around the Airbus 350, the Boeing 787 and the new wing designs on the 777X. So as those models increase and order patterns of the 777X is able to come online, which I believe is a 2024 event, we'll see the benefit from that. The Chinese automotive continues to be a great business for us, and we're making more and more headways across all of our divisions, particularly into the EV models for that segment of the business.

是的。我想說的是，我們在中國的航空航天業務中看到的只是我們航空航天業務中相對無關緊要的部分。我們對航空航天的絕大部分需求將在波音和空客之間。特別是圍繞空客 350、波音 787 和 777X 的新機翼設計。因此，隨著這些型號的增加和 777X 的訂單模式能夠上線，我相信這是 2024 年的事件，我們將看到從中受益。中國汽車對我們來說仍然是一項偉大的業務，我們在所有部門都取得了越來越多的進展，尤其是在該業務領域的電動汽車模型方面。

For Aerospace overall, globally, we highlighted about a $90 million EBITDA on pre-pandemic levels, that dipped to about $30 million during the pandemic. We're now back up to about $50 million, $60 million. And we're confident that by 2024, which is what we've indicated, we'll be back at pre-pandemic levels of profitability.

對於整個全球的航空航天，我們強調了大流行前水平的約 9000 萬美元的 EBITDA，在大流行期間下降到約 3000 萬美元。我們現在又回到了大約 5000 萬、6000 萬美元。我們有信心，到 2024 年，正如我們所指出的，我們將恢復到大流行前的盈利水平。

And I want to make sure I understand your question on flexing the balance sheet. Was that more of producing product to meet demand before it comes? Or I'm sorry, I'm not sure I got the point on that one.

我想確保我理解你關於調整資產負債表的問題。是否更多地生產產品以滿足需求？或者，對不起，我不確定我是否理解了這一點。

Yes, exactly before trends improve and just wondering, I guess...

是的，就在趨勢改善之前，只是想知道，我想......

No, I wouldn't be in favor of that. It's not that we're afraid of the balance sheet. I don't want to put any more product in the market than it needs to be put in the market. And we need to see genuine demand improvements, and we need to see pricing and margins expansion. And at that point, we'll make decisions to add capacity. But in these sort of market conditions -- and I'm just speaking for Huntsman, I'm not speaking as an industry, in these sort of market conditions, we don't need more tonnage going into the market at this time.

不，我不會贊成這樣做。這並不是說我們害怕資產負債表。我不想在市場上投放比需要投放市場更多的產品。我們需要看到真正的需求改善，我們需要看到定價和利潤率的擴大。屆時，我們將決定增加產能。但在這種市場條件下——我只是代表亨斯邁發言，我不是作為一個行業發言，在這種市場條件下，我們現在不需要更多的噸位進入市場。

Let's meet the customer demands that we have and those customers where we have contractual obligations and so forth to do so, and we're going to scale back production in areas where we're not able to get an acceptable return.

讓我們滿足客戶的需求以及我們有合同義務的客戶等等，我們將在無法獲得可接受回報的領域縮減生產。

Our next question comes from the line of Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Frank Mitsch 與 Fermium Research 的合作。

I wanted to come back to the idling of the MDI facilities in Rotterdam and in Geismar. When did you bring those units down? What were your operating rates in MDI in 4Q? Where do you think 1Q is going to come out? And where do you think you are relative to the industry?

我想回到鹿特丹和蓋斯馬閒置的 MDI 設施。你什麼時候把那些單位降下來的？ 4Q你們MDI的開工率是多少？你覺得1Q會出在哪裡？您認為您相對於行業處於什麼位置？

Well, Frank, first of all, good to hear from you. I think that relative to the industry that we're probably pretty close to the industry. There is such little transparency right now. I would guess that the operating rates right now are somewhere around 70% globally. And I base that based on our own, yes, there are some people that are out there, I recognize that are putting a priority on volume and over value. If -- I mean we've looked at various programs. If you take government money, government subsidies in various areas around the world, you can do that, but that might be good on the short term. But longer term, you're kind of locked into keeping facilities operating at pretty high rates. You can't cut your costs as much as I think you should be able to.

嗯，弗蘭克，首先，很高興收到你的來信。我認為相對於我們可能非常接近行業的行業。現在透明度如此之低。我猜想目前全球的開工率約為 70%。我基於我們自己的基礎，是的，有一些人在那裡，我認識到他們優先考慮數量和價值。如果——我的意思是我們研究了各種計劃。如果你拿政府的錢，世界各地的政府補貼，你可以這樣做，但這在短期內可能是好的。但從長遠來看，你有點被鎖定在保持設施以相當高的速度運行。你不能像我認為你應該能夠的那樣削減你的成本。

And on some degree, you're making a deal with the devil. So we looked at and we made a decision to shut down our Geismar capacity in the fourth quarter of this year. Our Rotterdam facility is presently going through a turnaround right now. And when that restarts, it will not be restarting with all of its -- with both of these lines, just the larger of the lines in Rotterdam. So -- but that's before the turnaround, it's safe to say that we were moderating production at that facility as well.

在某種程度上，你是在與魔鬼做交易。所以我們看了看，並決定在今年第四季度關閉我們的 Geismar 產能。我們的鹿特丹工廠目前正在進行周轉。當它重新啟動時，它不會重新啟動它的所有 - 這兩條線路，只是鹿特丹的較大線路。所以 - 但那是在轉機之前，可以肯定地說我們也在該工廠調節生產。

And as we said on our call, Frank, if demand dictates, then we can restart those units relatively quickly. But as Peter said, we're going to make sure that we're matching effectively production to end market demand.

正如我們在電話會議上所說，弗蘭克，如果需要的話，我們可以相對較快地重啟這些設備。但正如彼得所說，我們將確保我們有效地將生產與終端市場需求相匹配。

Our next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

I just wanted to ask, if you look at year-over-year, there's a decline of maybe over $200 million, even ex Textiles. So if you were to think about that, is there any way you could help us understand how much of that is maybe broken out into different buckets, say, price, volume and then maybe decremental margin? And similarly, if you look ahead, looks like you're going to be up in the range of $40 million sequentially on EBITDA. And is there any way if you could kind of break that out into maybe some of those buckets?

我只是想問，如果你看一下同比，可能會下降超過 2 億美元，即使不包括紡織品。因此，如果您考慮一下，有什麼方法可以幫助我們了解其中有多少可能被分解到不同的桶中，比如價格、數量，然後可能是遞減保證金？同樣，如果你展望未來，看起來你的 EBITDA 將連續增加 4000 萬美元。如果您可以將其分解成其中一些桶，有什麼辦法嗎？

Well, I haven't given a great deal of thought on the various buckets in the past. But if I look forward, probably safe to say that we're going to be benefiting as we look into the next quarter, in the quarter 1. We're going to be benefiting across the board by falling raw materials and -- first and foremost, and lower cost across all of our regions. And we do continue in the fourth quarter -- excuse me, in the first quarter to see some pricing instability and volume demand in certain areas of the company that would be going against that.

好吧，過去我沒有對各種桶考慮太多。但是，如果我向前看，可以肯定地說，我們將在下一個季度，即第一季度中受益。我們將通過原材料下降和 - 首先和 -最重要的是，降低我們所有地區的成本。我們確實在第四季度繼續 - 對不起，在第一季度看到公司某些領域的一些定價不穩定和數量需求將與此相反。

So safe to say that we'll be able to see higher earnings in the first quarter and going into the second quarter as we see raw materials come down. I think that will probably be more of the driver in the first quarter. I think improvements in demand and pricing will be shown in the second quarter.

可以肯定地說，隨著原材料價格下降，我們將能夠在第一季度和第二季度看到更高的收益。我認為這可能是第一季度的更多推動因素。我認為需求和定價的改善將在第二季度顯示出來。

Conversely, if we look, going backwards, I would imagine that the -- in some of our businesses and particularly in our Performance Products and Ad Mats, a lot of the segments there, when you look at our variable margin on a per pound basis, we haven't seen a great deal of movement. It's all about volume.

相反，如果我們回過頭來看，我會想像 - 在我們的一些業務中，特別是在我們的性能產品和廣告墊中，那裡有很多細分市場，當你以每磅為基礎查看我們的可變利潤率時，我們還沒有看到很大的運動。一切都與音量有關。

And in Polyurethanes, some of our end markets as well, we haven't seen much of an erosion on margins either. So it's a volume drill. Others at the more commoditized end of the business, you've seen both margin and volume dropping, but I would say that the biggest single reason that we've seen a hold in earnings from a year ago that would certainly be around volume more so than anything else.

在聚氨酯以及我們的一些終端市場中，我們也沒有看到利潤率受到太大侵蝕。所以這是一個音量練習。其他處於商品化程度更高的業務端，您已經看到利潤率和交易量都在下降，但我要說的是，我們看到一年前收益停滯的最大單一原因肯定是交易量更多比什麼都重要。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Matthew DeYoe。

I guess, 2 things. One, quickly, are you on the hook for anything if Venator ends up fined or going bankrupt and then you're fined for buying share? And then, 2, if we net out the lower energy costs with the lower prices and volumes in Europe, do you expect Polyurethanes profits can improve in Europe quarter-over-quarter? Or is your -- yes, I'll leave it there.

我猜，兩件事。第一，很快，如果 Venator 最終被罰款或破產，你是否會因為購買股票而被罰款？然後，2，如果我們將較低的能源成本與歐洲較低的價格和數量相抵消，您預計歐洲的聚氨酯利潤會環比提高嗎？或者是你的——是的，我會把它留在那裡。

Well, I can answer succinctly no and yes. But no, we're not on the hook for anything with Venator. We have some shares that you can obviously read in our filings. But no, we divested of that asset, what, 4, 5 years ago at this point. And -- so the simple answer to your first is no. And yes, I believe that as we look at our Polyurethanes business, we certainly would hope to be expanding volumes on the back of falling energy prices and cost discipline and moving prices where we can.

好吧，我可以簡潔地回答“否”和“是”。但是不，我們不會因為 Venator 的任何事情而陷入困境。我們有一些股票，您顯然可以在我們的文件中閱讀。但是不，我們在 4、5 年前的此時剝離了該資產。並且 - 所以對您的第一個問題的簡單回答是否定的。是的，我相信，當我們審視我們的聚氨酯業務時，我們當然希望在能源價格下降和成本控制的背景下擴大產量，並儘可能地調整價格。

Matt, on Venator, we mark-to-market and we've got $6 million on the balance sheet at the end of the fourth quarter. So it's de minimis from a Huntsman balance sheet perspective.

Matt，在 Venator 上，我們按市值計價，第四季度末我們的資產負債表上有 600 萬美元。因此，從亨斯邁資產負債表的角度來看，這是微不足道的。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mike Sison 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

In Slide 8, where you have adjusted EBITDA bridge, Polyurethanes was down $180 million or so. And I think you guys said it was mostly volume. So if the restocking ends -- or I'm sorry, destocking ends, how much of that $180 million comes back? And if there is a restocking event as maybe things get better, hopefully, do you get all of that back and then some?

在幻燈片 8 中，您調整了 EBITDA 橋，聚氨酯業務下降了 1.8 億美元左右。我想你們說這主要是音量。因此，如果補貨結束——或者對不起，去庫存結束，那 1.8 億美元中有多少會返還？如果有一個補貨事件，也許情況會好轉，希望你能把所有這些都拿回來，然後再拿一些嗎？

Yes, Mike, I think if you look at the year-on-year for Polyurethanes, I think it is a combination of volume down year-on-year, both in the Americas and in Europe, as we've said. And it is also a unit margin decline even though year-on-year, there's actually a slight price increase year-on-year, Q4 to Q4. Obviously, there's been a much more significant impact on variable costs. I think we indicated a $0.5 billion increase on cost of sales year-on-year.

是的，邁克，我想如果你看一下聚氨酯的同比，我認為這是美洲和歐洲銷量同比下降的組合，正如我們所說的那樣。這也是單位利潤率下降，儘管與去年同期相比，實際上價格同比略有上漲，第四季度到第四季度。顯然，對可變成本的影響要大得多。我認為我們表示銷售成本同比增長 5 億美元。

As we move forward, and we said from Q4 to Q1, we would expect some unit margin improvements from Q4 to Q1 in Polyurethanes, particularly with lower, though still high natural gas prices. And of course, benzene has started to rise as well. But we would expect some unit margin improvements. It really then becomes a discussion around volume, the things that Peter has talked about in terms of China and also when instruction comes back overall. But we are expecting improvement, Q4 to Q1 in Polyurethanes.

隨著我們向前邁進，我們說從第四季度到第一季度，我們預計聚氨酯從第四季度到第一季度的單位利潤率會有所改善，特別是天然氣價格較低但仍然很高。當然，苯也開始上漲。但我們預計單位利潤率會有所改善。然後它真的變成了圍繞音量的討論，Peter 談到的關於中國的事情，以及當教學全面回歸時。但我們預計聚氨酯從第四季度到第一季度有所改善。

Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰羅伯茨。

Why is the minimum of $400 million the right number for 2023 buyback? And should we look at the difference between the Textile proceeds and the $400 million is what you might hope to do for acquisitions?

為什麼 4 億美元的最低金額是 2023 年回購的正確數字？我們是否應該看看 Textile 收益與您可能希望用於收購的 4 億美元之間的差異？

No, I think that -- we've looked at our overall plan on cash deployments. We look at our dividend, we look at share buybacks, we look at our organic internal capital needs and investments. And then we would like to think that we keep some powder dry for M&A. And quite frankly, if there is no M&A, we -- that's why we say at least $400 million. If we can't find a good value on the M&A front, we'll keep buying our own company. So I think that, as we balance that and we take our best look throughout the entirety of the year and cash needs and so forth and our expected cash generation, yes, we want to make sure that we're focused on all 4 of those areas between share buyback, dividends, internal and external.

不，我認為——我們已經研究了現金部署的總體計劃。我們看看我們的股息，我們看看股票回購，我們看看我們的有機內部資本需求和投資。然後我們想為併購保留一些粉末。坦率地說，如果沒有併購，我們——這就是為什麼我們說至少 4 億美元。如果我們在併購方面找不到好的價值，我們將繼續收購我們自己的公司。所以我認為，當我們平衡這一點時，我們會在全年和現金需求等方面進行最好的審視，以及我們預期的現金產生，是的，我們希望確保我們專注於所有這 4 個股票回購、股息、內部和外部之間的區域。

So right now, beginning of the year, let's keep some dry powder for the M&A opportunities that we see, and that's something that we're very aggressively pursuing. But as I said in my comments, we're not going to overpay. So we'll keep looking.

所以現在，今年年初，讓我們為我們看到的併購機會保留一些乾粉，這是我們非常積極追求的事情。但正如我在評論中所說，我們不會多付錢。所以我們會繼續尋找。

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

Just a quick one on Europe. Just you're pretty clear you're going to see some benefit of lower costs. But wondering, given your use of surcharges earlier in the year last year, is that something we need to consider in terms of being a dampening effect of some of that benefit as it rolls through? Or is that something that shouldn't be a big issue?

簡單介紹一下歐洲。只要你很清楚，你就會看到降低成本的一些好處。但是想知道，鑑於您去年早些時候使用了附加費，我們是否需要考慮在它滾動時對某些好處產生抑製作用？或者這不應該是一個大問題？

No. I don't see us rebating surcharges. The surcharges we put in at the time to -- for higher energy costs, we transferred those surcharges, were put into permanent price increases. And I think the surcharge for us was the best way that we could respond quickly to the high surge that we saw in energy prices and raw materials that were taking place.

不，我沒有看到我們退還附加費。我們當時收取的附加費——為了提高能源成本，我們將這些附加費轉移到永久性價格上漲中。而且我認為對我們來說，附加費是我們能夠快速應對能源價格和原材料價格飆升的最佳方式。

And so if we get in that situation again this next summer, I hope we don't. But if we do, that's something that will likely be implementing again. As I said in my earlier comments, we're not going to be -- continue to be the shock absorber between energy prices, energy producers and the ultimate consumers. So we'll continue to deploy whatever we have to offset energy volatility.

因此，如果明年夏天我們再次陷入這種情況，我希望我們不會。但如果我們這樣做，那很可能會再次實施。正如我在之前的評論中所說，我們不會 - 繼續成為能源價格、能源生產商和最終消費者之間的減震器。因此，我們將繼續部署我們必須採取的一切措施來抵消能源波動。

Our next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 P.J. Juvekar。

Peter, it's Eric Petrie on for P.J. What was the EBITDA earnings on your HBS sales of $600 million? And where do you expect sales to go next year with lower new build activity? And how much of it is non-U.S.? And can you talk about your aspirations for growing internationally?

彼得，我是埃里克·皮特里 (Eric Petrie) 代替 P.J. 您的哈佛商學院 6 億美元銷售額的 EBITDA 收益是多少？隨著新建築活動的減少，您預計明年的銷售將走向何方？其中有多少是非美國的？你能談談你在國際上發展的願望嗎？

Yes. So we don't disclose our EBITDA for HBS overall. You can actually track the sales we give. We look at our integrated margins across that business and drive the business appropriately. As we said, between Q3 and Q4, we could see fairly flat volumes overall and certainly, Q4 over Q4 gives us some part that maybe some of the destocking has finished.

是的。因此，我們不會整體披露 HBS 的 EBITDA。您實際上可以跟踪我們提供的銷售額。我們著眼於我們在該業務中的綜合利潤率並適當地推動業務發展。正如我們所說，在第三季度和第四季度之間，我們可以看到整體銷量相當平穩，當然，第四季度比第四季度給我們一些可能已經完成的去庫存。

In terms of our international business overall, look, spray foams needed more than anywhere over in Europe. And you think about the U.K., you think about some Western Europe, which is needed. It is a relatively smaller part of our business overall, sub-10% right now. However, we would expect that to grow over the next 3 to 5 years, particularly in the European landscape that really needs energy efficiency.

就我們的整體國際業務而言，噴塗泡沫比歐洲任何地方都需要更多。你想到英國，你想到一些西歐，這是需要的。它在我們整體業務中所佔比例相對較小，目前不到 10%。然而，我們預計在未來 3 到 5 年內會增長，特別是在真正需要能源效率的歐洲地區。

I would just note that as we look at expanding that business in Europe, we're able to do it with our present configuration of assets there, meaning that we will not have to make an investment in system houses or facilities to be able to continue to grow the European market. And we're also focused on the Asian markets as well. And again, it's not just us, there's just not a lot of polyurethane spray foam. Those are very -- those are very ideal markets for us to be expanding in over the coming years.

我只想指出，當我們著眼於在歐洲擴展該業務時，我們能夠利用我們目前在那裡的資產配置來做到這一點，這意味著我們將不必對系統製造商或設施進行投資就能夠繼續發展歐洲市場。我們也專注於亞洲市場。再一次，不僅僅是我們，聚氨酯噴塗泡沫並不多。這些非常 - 那些是我們在未來幾年擴展的非常理想的市場。

But right now, the lion's share of our focus and majority and the improvements in earnings in that business and continued recovery will be in North America.

但現在，我們的重點和大部分以及該業務收益的改善和持續復甦將在北美。

And with that, operator, why don't we take one more question, and we'll wrap it up. I think we've got a little bit over time here.

有了這個，接線員，我們為什麼不再提出一個問題，我們將把它結束。我認為我們在這裡已經過了一些時間。

Our final question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Look, a question around near- and medium-term MDI supply. I mean you guys talked about yourselves sort of matching your supply to the lower demand, right, within MDI. I mean, from what I'm seeing, the rest of the industry is doing the same. Would you sort of think that discipline will continue? I mean, obviously, you guys will. But for the rest of the industry as demand comes back, so that's on the near-term side of it. And on the medium-term side of it, what are you guys seeing in terms of the industry participants, maybe rationalizing capacity, maybe reconsidering expansions and the like?

看，關於近期和中期 MDI 供應的問題。我的意思是你們談到自己在 MDI 中將供應與較低的需求相匹配。我的意思是，據我所知，該行業的其他人也在做同樣的事情。你認為紀律會繼續嗎？我的意思是，很明顯，你們會的。但對於該行業的其他人來說，隨著需求的恢復，這是短期的。在中期方面，你們對行業參與者有何看法，也許是合理化產能，也許是重新考慮擴張等？

Well, obviously, I can't comment on what the competition is doing or how long and to what degree they've shut back capacity. So I think it probably varies from player to player, but I'd only be speculating at that point. Long term, as we look at MDI, I would just remind that it may seem like I'm talking about a decade ago. But if we go back just a year ago, if we go back to pre-COVID times and in the post-COVID times, this industry continues to be a very robust industry, MDI. It continues to replace other products, and it continues to grow at better than GDP rates.

好吧，很明顯，我不能評論競爭對手在做什麼，或者他們關閉產能的時間和程度。所以我認為這可能因玩家而異，但我只是在那個時候推測。從長遠來看，當我們審視 MDI 時，我只想提醒一下，我說的似乎是十年前的事。但如果我們回到一年前，如果我們回到 COVID 之前和 COVID 之後的時代，這個行業仍然是一個非常強勁的行業，MDI。它繼續取代其他產品，並繼續以高於 GDP 的速度增長。

And we were essentially sold out before we saw the meltdown in Europe around energy prices. When I say we, I'm not just talking about Huntsman, I think as an industry, we were sold out. We were in discussions with a number of very large customers that we're talking about, wanting multiyear contracts and wanting to buy capacity within our facilities and so forth, sort of topics that we've never had before with customers. And so there has not been a lot change on the overall structure of the market.

在我們看到歐洲圍繞能源價格崩潰之前，我們基本上已經賣光了。當我說我們時，我不只是在談論亨斯邁，我認為作為一個行業，我們已經賣光了。我們正在與我們正在談論的許多非常大的客戶進行討論，希望簽訂多年合同並希望在我們的設施內購買容量等等，這是我們以前從未與客戶討論過的話題。因此，市場的整體結構沒有太大變化。

The market is still going to be growing where it will need at least 1 world-scale facility to come on every 9 to 12 months. And most of that demand is going to be taking place in China and most of that new construction will be taking place in China. But as you look out over the horizon and you think about the number of new facilities that are going to be built, there's 1 or 2 that had even been announced. And over the course of the next 5 to 7 years, however long it takes to build one of these, I think that there is, Hassan, a very legitimate question about Europe.

市場仍在增長，每 9 到 12 個月至少需要 1 個世界級的設施。大部分需求將發生在中國，大部分新建築將在中國進行。但是，當您放眼地平線並考慮將要建造的新設施的數量時，甚至已經宣布了 1 或 2 個。在接下來的 5 到 7 年的過程中，無論建立其中一個需要多長時間，哈桑，我認為這是一個關於歐洲的非常合理的問題。

And as I look at the cost per ton of European MDI crude production, now again, I'm not talking about the finished product, I'm talking about the crude production that's energy intensity and dependency on the price of crude oil and specifically benzene. And I look at that crude production in Europe with the high energy, high regulatory costs, and I compare that to the Americas and I compare that to the Middle East, and I compare that to Asia, if there is going to be a multi-hundred dollars per ton cost differential that's now going to be built into Europe. I questioned some of the long-term competitiveness of low-cost polymeric MDI, particularly around today's pricing and how that survives.

當我查看每噸歐洲 MDI 原油生產的成本時，我再次強調，我不是在談論成品，而是在談論原油生產，能源強度和對原油價格的依賴，特別是苯.我觀察了歐洲的原油生產，能源消耗高，監管成本高，我將其與美洲進行比較，將其與中東進行比較，然後將其與亞洲進行比較，如果要進行多-每噸成本差異數百美元，現在將在歐洲建立。我質疑低成本聚合 MDI 的一些長期競爭力，特別是圍繞今天的定價以及它如何生存。

You've got producers in MDI for the more commoditized grades in Europe that are losing money today. And that's with today's energy prices. And so I'm kind of at a loss as to how that really changes that -- how that dynamic changes in Europe. And so my comments, when I talked about, we continue to look at our portfolio, we continue to look at where we source not only our raw materials, but where we source our internal supply of crude MDI and the components to make a molecule of MDI.

歐洲商品化程度更高的 MDI 生產商如今處於虧損狀態。這就是當今的能源價格。因此，我有點不知所措，不知道這究竟是如何改變的——這種動態在歐洲是如何改變的。所以我的評論，當我談到時，我們繼續研究我們的產品組合，我們繼續研究我們不僅從哪裡採購原材料，而且從哪裡採購粗 MDI 的內部供應和製造分子的組件計量吸入器。

I don't think that -- I personally don't feel that we're done answering that question, as to what that global footprint ultimately looks like. Because I -- if you go back 2 years ago, Hassan, I'll just remind you that in 2021, European prices for a ton of MDI was actually the lowest cost -- excuse me, I'm talking about 2020, the close of 2020, European MDI prices for Huntsman on a per ton basis were around [8 75] per ton. At Geismar, they were around [9 50] and they were about [9 25] in Caojing.

我不認為——我個人認為我們還沒有回答完這個問題，即全球足跡最終是什麼樣子。因為我——如果你回到 2 年前，Hassan，我只想提醒你，在 2021 年，歐洲一噸 MDI 的價格實際上是最低的——對不起，我說的是 2020 年，即收盤價到 2020 年，亨斯邁的歐洲 MDI 每噸價格約為 [8·75] 每噸。在 Geismar，他們在 [9 50] 左右，在漕涇大約 [9 25]。

Now my point in that is that all 3 of those regions were within tens of dollars to each other, you couldn't afford to move product from region to region and really be competitive because the manufacturing bases in all 3 regions was essentially the same, and you're looking at, what, $250 to $350, $400 a ton to move product. Now you're looking at variable cost to produce a ton of MDI, this last year was as much as $1,000 per ton difference.

現在我的觀點是，所有這 3 個區域彼此之間的價格都在幾十美元以內，你無法承受將產品從一個區域轉移到另一個區域並真正具有競爭力，因為所有 3 個區域的製造基地基本相同，你在看什麼，每噸 250 美元到 350 美元，400 美元來移動產品。現在你正在考慮生產一噸 MDI 的可變成本，去年每噸差價高達 1,000 美元。

And as we look at that cost difference today, you're talking about in excess from the lowest to the highest within Huntsman in excess of $500 a ton, which obviously covers freight. And that's the sort of the spread and sort of the delta that I don't think you can -- if that's going to continue on a longer-term basis and what we see today is as good as it's going to get in Europe, we've got to continue to ask ourselves what sort of footprint do we need in Europe to remain competitive, to create shareholder value.

當我們今天看這個成本差異時，你說的是亨斯邁從最低到最高的超額價格，每噸超過 500 美元，這顯然包括運費。這就是我認為你做不到的那種傳播和三角洲——如果這種情況會長期持續下去，而且我們今天看到的情況和歐洲將要發生的情況一樣好，我們我們必須繼續問自己，我們在歐洲需要什麼樣的足跡才能保持競爭力，創造股東價值。

And we're going to continue to look at that and to make sure that we're moving quickly to try to address some of those sort of issues. So sorry, that's a long rambling answer, but I guess at the heart of what we're seeing in Europe and the deindustrialization in a lot of the chemical segments that we're seeing in Europe and how we need to be responding to it on the short term and longer term as we look out over the next couple of years. I'm not sure that those answers have all been completely satisfied, at least not to my satisfaction.

我們將繼續關注這一點，並確保我們正在迅速採取行動，試圖解決其中一些問題。很抱歉，這是一個長篇大論的答案，但我想這是我們在歐洲看到的情況的核心，以及我們在歐洲看到的許多化學領域的去工業化，以及我們需要如何應對它我們在未來幾年展望的短期和長期。我不確定那些答案是否都完全令人滿意，至少沒有讓我滿意。

And operator, I think that pretty much sums up our session here.

運營商，我認為這幾乎總結了我們在這裡的會議。

Thank you. Yes, that does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time and enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。是的，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路並享受接下來的一天。