Hubbell Inc (HUBB) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Hubbell's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Dan Innamorato, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Hubbell 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係副總裁 Dan Innamorato。請繼續。

Thanks, Phoebe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release announcing our results for the fourth quarter of 2023. The press release and slides are posted to the Investors section of our website at hubbell.com. I'm joined today by our Chairman, President and CEO, Gerben Bakker; our Executive Vice President and CFO, Bill Sperry.

謝謝，菲比。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，宣布 2023 年第四季的業績。新聞稿和幻燈片發佈在我們網站 hubbell.com 的投資者部分。今天我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Gerben Bakker 也加入了我的行列。我們的執行副總裁兼財務長比爾‧斯佩里。

Please note our comments this morning may include statements related to the expected future results of our company and are forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Therefore, please note the discussion of forward-looking statements in our press release considered incorporated by reference to this call.

請注意，我們今天早上的評論可能包括與我們公司預期未來業績相關的陳述，並且屬於1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。因此，請注意我們媒體上對前瞻性陳述的討論版本被視為透過引用本次電話會議合併。

Additionally, comments may also include non-GAAP financial measures. Those measures are reconciled to the comparable GAAP measures and are included in the press release and slides. Now let me turn the call over to Gerben.

此外，評論還可能包括非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施與可比較的公認會計原則措施一致，並包含在新聞稿和幻燈片中。現在讓我把電話轉給格本。

Great. Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss Hubbell's Fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. Hubbell delivered a strong finish to an exceptional year. For the full year 2023, we achieved 9% sales growth, over 500 basis points of operating margin expansion and over 40% growth in operating profit and earnings per share. These results were driven not only by our strong positions in attractive markets but also by the consistent execution of our people and maintaining industry-leading service levels for our customers while driving price and productivity across our businesses.

偉大的。早安，感謝您加入我們討論 Hubbell 的第四季和 2023 年全年業績。哈貝爾為非凡的一年畫上了圓滿的句點。 2023 年全年，我們實現了 9% 的銷售額成長，營業利潤率擴大超過 500 個基點，營業利潤和每股盈餘成長超過 40%。這些成果不僅得益於我們在有吸引力的市場中的強勢地位，還得益於我們員工的一貫執行力以及為客戶保持行業領先的服務水平，同時推動了我們整個業務的價格和生產力。

Our strong financial performance also enabled us to invest back into our business in capacity, innovation and productivity initiatives. We invested $165 million in capital expenditures in 2023, almost double our investment levels from 2021. We are confident that these investments will drive future growth and productivity for our shareholders. And as we will describe in more detail later, we intend to grow profitably off of a strong multiyear base of performance.

我們強勁的財務表現也使我們能夠在產能、創新和生產力計劃方面重新投資於我們的業務。 2023 年，我們投資了 1.65 億美元的資本支出，幾乎是 2021 年投資水準的兩倍。我們相信，這些投資將推動股東未來的成長和生產力。正如我們稍後將更詳細地描述的那樣，我們打算在強大的多年業績基礎上實現盈利增長。

Turning to the fourth quarter. We delivered strong growth and margin expansion in both segments. Notably, we also returned to year-over-year volume growth in Electrical Solutions. As we noted on our previous call in October, we were confident that the channel inventory management that we had seen earlier in the year had largely normalized. As a result, we saw stronger seasonal performance in the fourth quarter as well as continued strength across data centers and renewables verticals.

轉向第四季。我們在這兩個領域都實現了強勁的成長和利潤率擴張。值得注意的是，我們的電氣解決方案銷售量也恢復了年成長。正如我們在 10 月的上次電話會議中指出的那樣，我們相信今年稍早看到的通路庫存管理已基本正常化。因此，我們在第四季度看到了更強勁的季節性表現，以及資料中心和再生能源垂直領域的持續強勢。

We also continued the trajectory of strong margin expansion in the Electrical segment, ending the year with adjusted operating margins of 16.6%. We continue to see structural margin expansion opportunities as we make progress in our strategy of competing collectively as an operating segment, and we plan to accelerate our restructuring investment in 2024 to drive long-term productivity.

我們也持續維持電氣部門利潤率的強勁成長勢頭，年底調整後營業利潤率為 16.6%。隨著我們作為營運部門的集體競爭策略取得進展，我們繼續看到結構性利潤率擴張的機會，我們計劃在 2024 年加快重組投資，以推動長期生產力。

In Utility Solutions, fourth quarter trends were largely consistent with the third quarter. Transmission markets were strong, and we continue to convert on past due backlog in Communications & Controls as supply chain conditions have improved. Utility distribution markets continue to be impacted by channel inventory normalization as anticipated, though we continue to see visible demand strength in 2024 and beyond.

在公用事業解決方案中，第四季的趨勢與第三季基本一致。傳輸市場表現強勁，隨著供應鏈狀況的改善，我們繼續轉換通訊與控制領域逾期積壓的訂單。儘管我們繼續看到 2024 年及以後的需求強勁，但公用事業分銷市場繼續受到通路庫存正常化的影響。

Telcom markets were weak in the quarter. And while our long-term outlook here remains positive, we are taking a cautious initial view on 2024 until we have more visibility on timing of investments.

本季電信市場疲軟。雖然我們的長期前景仍然樂觀，但我們對 2024 年持謹慎的初步看法，直到我們對投資時機有了更多了解。

We also executed on 2 important portfolio actions in the quarter as we closed on the previously announced acquisition of Systems Control and announced a definitive agreement to sell our Residential Lighting business, which we expect to close in early February. These transactions reflect our ongoing strategy to create a focused portfolio strategically aligned around grid modernization and electrification. These transactions improved the long-term growth and margin profile of our portfolio, and we anticipate that they will be net accretive to 2024 adjusted earnings per share.

我們也在本季執行了兩項重要的投資組合行動，完成了先前宣布的 Systems Control 收購，並宣布了出售我們的住宅照明業務的最終協議，我們預計該業務將於 2 月初完成。這些交易反映了我們持續的策略，即創建一個圍繞電網現代化和電氣化進行策略調整的重點投資組合。這些交易改善了我們投資組合的長期成長和利潤狀況，我們預計它們將為 2024 年調整後每股收益帶來淨增值。

We will provide more details on our '24 outlook at the end of this call, but we remain confident that Hubbell is uniquely positioned in attractive markets and that we can build off the success of this last several years to drive profitable growth of this higher base of performance.

我們將在本次電話會議結束時提供有關24 年前景的更多詳細信息，但我們仍然相信Hubbell 在有吸引力的市場中擁有獨特的地位，並且我們可以在過去幾年的成功基礎上推動這一更高基數的獲利成長的性能。

With that, let me turn it over to Bill to walk you through the details of the quarter.

接下來，讓我將其交給比爾，帶您了解本季的詳細資訊。

Thanks very much, Gerb, and good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us. I'm pleased to have the chance to discuss with you our financial performance in the fourth quarter, which was very strong, capping a strong year and frankly, a strong 2 years. I'm going to start my comments on Page 4 of the slides that I hope you found.

非常感謝，Gerb，大家早安。感謝您加入我們。我很高興有機會與您討論我們第四季度的財務業績，該業績非常強勁，為強勁的一年畫上了圓滿的句號，坦率地說，這是強勁的兩年。我將從投影片的第 4 頁開始我的評論，希望您能找到。

So the trends have been in place, really, for the last year and longer strong sales growth and operating profit growth, including margin expansion, being driven by strong markets as well as strong pricing and strong cash flow is resulting. And those fundamental trends are obviously continuing here in the fourth quarter.

因此，去年的趨勢確實已經存在，並且在強勁的市場以及強勁的定價和強勁的現金流的推動下，銷售成長和營業利潤成長更長，包括利潤率擴張。這些基本趨勢顯然在第四季度仍在繼續。

So we reported $1.35 billion of sales, 10% growth, 2% of that comes from acquisitions, 8% is organic. The Utility segment, a little bit stronger than Electrical. But as Gerben noted, quite important for Electrical volumes to return to growth as a sign that the inventory in the channel is normalized on that side of the house.

我們報告的銷售額為 13.5 億美元，成長 10%，其中 2% 來自收購，8% 是有機成長。公用事業領域比電氣領域稍強。但正如格本指出的那樣，對於電力容量恢復成長非常重要，因為這表明該渠道的庫存在房屋的那一側已經正常化。

Interesting [truly] sequentially, the fourth quarter seasonally stronger than is typical. So we think that's a good sign. On the operating profit margin side, you see 19.4%, 3 points of expansion really being driven by price cost and productivity and creating some source of funding for investments that Gerben had described.

有趣的是，第四季的季節性比典型情況更強。所以我們認為這是一個好兆頭。在營業利潤率方面，您會看到 19.4%，即 3 個百分點的擴張實際上是由價格成本和生產力推動的，並為 Gerben 描述的投資創造了一些資金來源。

Earnings per share at $3.69, a 40% increase to prior year, and $284 million in free cash flow, helping to fund our CapEx and acquisition investments.

每股收益為 3.69 美元，比上年增長 40%，自由現金流為 2.84 億美元，有助於為我們的資本支出和收購投資提供資金。

So let's double-click on that on Page 5 and go one layer deeper. So the 10% sales we said was 8% organic. That was comprised of mid-single digits of price. We think that's good evidence of our quality of service and our brand positioning and low single digits of volume and welcome, as I said, the return to Electrical volume growth. The 2% coming from acquisitions were all on the Utility side, and we'll talk about those more when we get to the Utility page.

因此，讓我們雙擊第 5 頁上的該內容並深入一層。所以我們所說的 10% 銷售額是有機銷售額的 8%。其中價格為中個位數。我們認為，這很好地證明了我們的服務品質、品牌定位以及低個位數的銷量，正如我所說，歡迎電力銷售成長的回歸。來自收購的 2% 全部來自公用事業方面，當我們到達公用事業頁面時，我們將詳細討論這些內容。

On the upper right, operating profit up 34% to $262 million. The margin expansion of 3 points really being driven by price as well as materials which continued to provide a tailwind as they had for each quarter in 2023. So the inflation that we're experiencing is more on the wage and transportation side, that's where we're focusing a lot of productivity efforts, as well as we're absorbing there some operational productivity investment going on.

右上角，營業利潤成長 34%，達到 2.62 億美元。利潤率擴張3 個百分點實際上是由價格和材料推動的，與2023 年每個季度一樣，這些材料繼續提供推動力。因此，我們正在經歷的通貨膨脹更多地集中在工資和交通方面，這就是我們我們正在集中精力提高生產力，並且我們正在吸收一些正在進行的營運生產力投資。

On the lower left, you see earnings per share up 42%, a slightly higher growth rate than the operating profit. So below the line, we benefited from some tax rate favorability. And on the free cash flow side, you see $284 million, nearly a 60% increase. And for the full year, we generated over $700 million of cash flow and that supported a CapEx of around $165 million, which really helped drive some footprint restructuring, productivity and capacity investing.

在左下角，您可以看到每股收益成長了 42%，略高於營業利潤的成長率。因此，在線下，我們受益於一些稅率優惠。在自由現金流方面，您會看到 2.84 億美元，成長了近 60%。全年，我們產生了超過 7 億美元的現金流，支持了約 1.65 億美元的資本支出，這確實有助於推動一些足跡重組、生產力和產能投資。

So let's unpack the enterprise into the 2 segments, and we'll start with Utilities on Page 6, and you'll see another excellent quarter from our utility team, double-digit sales growth and 40% operating profit growth. 13% sales growth is comprised of 9% organic and 4% from acquisitions. The acquisitions to remind everybody included EIG, which was our second quarter of ownership there, Balestro and Systems Control. Systems Control was closed in the middle of December, so didn't contribute much yet. And we are reporting both Balestro and Systems Control in our T&D components and EIG is in the Comms & Control side. We'll talk more about acquisitions in a minute and the last few years plus this year.

因此，讓我們將企業分為兩個部分，我們將從第6 頁的公用事業開始，您將看到我們的公用事業團隊又一個出色的季度，兩位數的銷售成長和40% 的營業利潤增長。 13% 的銷售成長包括 9% 的有機成長和 4% 的收購成長。提醒大家的收購包括 EIG（我們第二季擁有該公司的所有權）、Balestro 和 Systems Control。 Systems Control 已於 12 月中旬關閉，因此尚未做出太多貢獻。我們在 T&D 元件中報告 Balestro 和系統控制，而 EIG 則在通訊和控制方面。我們稍後將更多地討論收購以及過去幾年和今年的收購。

As we think about the 9% organic growth, you'll see that it was skewed towards the Communications & Control side. If I start with Transmission & Distribution components, you'll see organic, it was at 1%, where volume was a drag on price. And if we look inside the components, Substation and Transmission continued to be very strong.

當我們考慮 9% 的有機成長時，您會發現它偏向於通訊與控制方面。如果我從輸電和配電組件開始，您會看到有機部分，比例為 1%，其中銷量拖累了價格。如果我們看看各個組件的內部，變電站和輸電仍然非常強勁。

Distribution components, we continue to work through our second quarter of channel inventory management. I think as we had mentioned before, our electrical side had experienced that quicker and sooner earlier really than utility side. So we've emerged on the electrical side still in -- on the distribution side.

分銷部分，我們繼續進行第二季的通路庫存管理。我認為正如我們之前提到的，我們的電力方面比公用事業方面更快更早地經歷了這種情況。因此，我們在電力方面仍然出現在配電方面。

And then Telcom has been weak a function of some overstocked inventories as well as potential demand impacts from a combination of high interest rates and some customers who are waiting for stimulus dollars to kick off their projects.

然後，由於一些庫存過剩以及高利率和一些正在等待刺激資金來啟動專案的客戶的潛在需求影響，電信公司一直表現疲軟。

You see on the Communications & Controls, surging growth there, we've got both the Aclara and Beckwith businesses there. On the Aclara side, the chips supply chain opening up has really allowed them to satisfy some existing backlog. And so we see some great growth there. Also to remind there was -- we have an easy compare there as last year, we had a commercial settlement that was a contra sales item.

你可以看到通訊與控制部門的業務正在蓬勃發展，我們在那裡擁有 Aclara 和 Beckwith 業務。在Aclara方面，晶片供應鏈的開放確實讓他們滿足了一些現有的積壓訂單。所以我們看到那裡有一些巨大的增長。另外要提醒的是──我們與去年進行了一個簡單的比較，我們有一個商業和解，這是一項對銷項目。

And Beckwith as well, which makes protective relays and controls, up double digits in sales. So very strong top line performance by the segment and even better on the OP side, a growth of 40% (sic) [41%] to $174 million, over 21% margins. And the price cost story is the same volume growth contributing and we continue to make investments.

生產保護繼電器和控制器的 Beckwith 的銷售額也實現了兩位數的成長。該細分市場的營收表現非常強勁，OP 方面的表現甚至更好，成長了 40%（原文如此）[41%]，達到 1.74 億美元，利潤率超過 21%。價格成本的故事與銷售成長的貢獻相同，我們繼續進行投資。

So from a full year, this is obviously all fourth quarter performance just at the bottom of the page, a full year comment on profit growth of about 60%. So congratulations to Greg and his team on just a really outstanding year.

所以從全年來看，這顯然只是頁面底部的所有第四季度業績，全年利潤增長約 60% 的評論。恭喜格雷格和他的團隊度過了非常出色的一年。

On Page 7, we've got the Electrical segment. And you see mid-single-digit sales growth with 2 points of margin expansion, strong performance from the electrical team. And of that 6% sales growth, it's comprised of about half of that is price and half volume. Net volume, as we said, we thought in October that the channel inventories would be normalized and rebalanced and that did occur in the fourth quarter, which is good news.

在第 7 頁，我們有電氣部分。您會看到銷售額實現中等個位數成長，利潤率擴大 2 個百分點，電氣團隊表現強勁。在這 6% 的銷售成長中，大約一半是價格成長，一半是銷售成長。淨成交量，正如我們所說，我們在 10 月認為通路庫存將會正常化和重新平衡，而這確實發生在第四季度，這是個好消息。

The volume came from some important verticals. Data centers was a big one. Recall last year, we bought PCX, which is performing really strongly serving that segment. Burndy as well as serving that segment. Burndy is also benefiting from the renewable vertical and a little bit of U.S. reshoring on the industrial side. So some favorable trends there, allowing for that volume growth.

成交量來自一些重要的垂直領域。資料中心是一個很大的中心。回想一下去年，我們購買了 PCX，它在該領域的表現非常強勁。 Burndy 也為該細分市場提供服務。伯恩迪也受益於再生能源垂直領域和美國工業方面的一些回流。因此存在一些有利的趨勢，允許銷量成長。

And on the profit side, you see 20% (sic) [23%] growth, 2 points of margin expansion as operating profit reached $88 million, again, the price cost really helping as well as the return to volume growth. And full year comment I'll make on Electrical like I did on the Utility side. We saw 20% growth in operating profit in the segment with 2.5 points of margin expansion. So I think a very successful year for the Electrical and looking forward to Mark Mikes and his team continuing to push the segment to compete collectively where we think there's more growth and more margin available to us there.

在利潤方面，您會看到20%（原文如此）[23%] 的增長，隨著營業利潤達到8800 萬美元，利潤率擴大了2 個百分點，價格成本以及銷量增長的恢復確實起到了幫助作用。我將像在公用事業方面一樣對電氣做出全年評論。我們看到該部門的營業利潤成長了 20%，利潤率擴大了 2.5 個百分點。因此，我認為電氣部門今年非常成功，並期待馬克麥克斯和他的團隊繼續推動該部門進行集體競爭，我們認為那裡有更多的成長和更多的利潤。

I mentioned that I wanted to talk about the portfolio management. And on Page 8, we've laid out the last few years of activity, just to remind ourselves of our intentions here. And I'll start with the divestitures where we have 3 companies divested in a fourth under definitive agreement that we're hoping to close in early February. And you see those businesses netted us $500 million of proceeds, and our intention here is to make sure we're investing in higher growth, higher margin businesses.

我提到我想談談投資組合管理。在第 8 頁，我們列出了過去幾年的活動，只是為了提醒自己我們的意圖。我將從資產剝離開始，根據最終協議，我們將 3 家公司剝離到第四家公司，我們希望在 2 月初完成協議。你會看到這些企業淨賺了 5 億美元的收益，我們的目的是確保我們投資於更高成長、更高利潤的企業。

And you'll see that, that $500 million we rolled into $1.7 billion of acquisitions, numbering about 10 over the last few years. And you can see in the large blue bubble of T&D components, where we added Cantega, Ripley, Armorcast, Balestro. And in the yellow bubble there of Connection & Bonding adding connector products. So those very intentionally adding businesses to our high-margin, high-growth areas as well as in specific growth verticals like Substation Systems, like Grid Automation, Datacenter, PCX, I mentioned and Wireless Communications of Acceltex.

你會看到，我們投入了 5 億美元進行了 17 億美元的收購，在過去幾年中大約有 10 次收購。您可以在 T&D 組件的大藍色氣泡中看到，我們在其中添加了 Cantega、Ripley、Armorcast、Balestro。在黃色氣泡中的 Connection & Bonding 添加連接器產品。因此，那些非常有意我們的高利潤、高成長領域以及特定成長垂直領域（如變電站系統、電網自動化、資料中心、PCX，我提到的 Acceltex 和無線通訊）增加業務。

So, we think we are enhancing the growth and margin profile of the company. I didn't want to pause because of Systems Controls recent closing as well as its size, on the impact on capital structure. So that was $1.1 billion purchase price that we funded with some cash as well as some CPE and a term loan A provided by our supportive bank group. The result of that is a flexible and prepayable capital structure, which we think gives us some optionality and results in very manageable debt levels of 1.8x debt-to-EBITDA on a net debt basis around [1.5x]. So we feel like that were improving the portfolio. And I'll talk about the specific impacts of the acquisitions on our guidance in another couple of pages.

因此，我們認為我們正在提高公司的成長和利潤率。我不想因為 Systems Controls 最近的關閉及其規模對資本結構的影響而暫停。這就是 11 億美元的購買價格，我們用一些現金以及一些 CPE 和我們支持的銀行集團提供的定期貸款 A 來資助。結果是靈活且可預付的資本結構，我們認為這給了我們一些選擇權，並導致債務水平非常可控，以淨債務為基礎，債務與EBITDA 之比為1.8 倍，約為[1.5 倍] 。所以我們覺得這正在改善產品組合。我將在另外幾頁中討論收購對我們的指導的具體影響。

So as we switch to outlook, let's start on Page 10 with the markets, and then we'll talk about how those markets roll through our earnings expectations. So, we've got the Utility segment on the left, Electrical segment on the right. You can see the different pieces of the pie here. Starting with electrical distribution, they've been in the [really] 2 quarters now of managing their inventories relative to the backlog.

因此，當我們轉向展望時，讓我們從第 10 頁的市場開始，然後我們將討論這些市場如何實現我們的獲利預期。因此，我們的左側是公用事業部分，右側是電氣部分。您可以在這裡看到餡餅的不同部分。從配電開始，他們現在已經用了兩個季度來管理相對於積壓的庫存。

And we think that's normalizing quickly and expecting a healthy mid-single-digit growth rate there. Transmission, Substation and Distribution Automation, which is up around noon on the pie. We think those are both high single digits, meters and gas in the mid-single digits, and Gerben talked about Telcom, having a very cautious outlook waiting for orders to restart there.

我們認為這種情況正在迅速正常化，並預計將出現健康的中個位數成長率。輸電、變電站和配電自動化，中午左右出現在派上。我們認為這些都是高個位數，米和天然氣都在中個位數，格本談到了電信，對等待訂單重啟的前景非常謹慎。

I will just comment, that's a short-term outlook. We do have very attractive medium- and long-term outlook for Telcom. So the result on the utility side is a mid-single-digit growth rate. On the electrical, you see nets out at 3% to 4%, so low to mid. I think the industrial outlook, you see both light and heavy is low to mid-single digits. We have mid-single-digit growth rates in our verticals. And I think nonres, we maybe have a bit of caution at flat to low single digits.

我只是評論一下，這是短期前景。我們確實對電信公司的中長期前景非常有吸引力。因此，公用事業方面的結果是中等個位數的成長率。在電氣方面，您會看到網路損耗為 3% 到 4%，所以處於低到中水平。我認為輕工業和重工業的工業前景都處於低至中個位數。我們的垂直行業成長率處於中等個位數。我認為非雷斯，我們可能對持平或低個位數持謹慎態度。

So a constructive market outlook for 2024, and let's go to Page 11 and see how that rolls through our earnings outlook.

因此，2024 年的市場前景具有建設性，讓我們翻到第 11 頁，看看這對我們的獲利前景有何影響。

So you see the organic of 3% to 5% in our sales growth, combined with 5% net from M&A, one going out, one coming in to create 8% to 10% sales growth. That generates a 10% growth in operating profit. Results in 6% earnings and free cash flow at about 90% of net income affording a continued increase in CapEx.

因此，你會看到我們的銷售有機成長 3% 到 5%，再加上併購帶來的 5% 淨成長，一出去，一進來，創造了 8% 到 10% 的銷售成長。這使得營業利潤成長 10%。帶來 6% 的收益和約佔淨收入 90% 的自由現金流，從而保證資本支出持續成長。

And let's just walk through the bridge to give you a feel for it. So we're under contract to sell Residential Lighting that will lose $20 million of OP, Systems Control, EIG and Balestro will be adding about $90 million. So you can see almost $1 coming from those before we pay the interest expense, which we have over on the right.

讓我們步行穿過這座橋，讓您感受一下它。因此，我們簽訂了出售住宅照明的合同，這將損失 2000 萬美元的 OP，系統控制、EIG 和 Balestro 將增加約 9000 萬美元。因此，在我們支付利息費用之前，您可以看到幾乎 1 美元來自這些費用，我們在右側顯示了利息費用。

We had for organic 3% to 5%, so we've comprised that of 2% to 4% volume and 1 point of price, which is in the next column, that's providing a nice list. And we have continued investment, particularly on the Electrical segment side, as we compete collectively there and continue to consolidate the footprint under our restructuring program.

我們的有機比例是 3% 到 5%，所以我們包含了 2% 到 4% 的銷量和 1 個點的價格，這在下一欄中，這提供了一個很好的清單。我們持續投資，特別是在電氣領域，因為我們在那裡集體競爭，並繼續根據我們的重組計劃鞏固足跡。

You see on the far right below OP, an increase in interest expense as a result of the borrowings that we outlined to close on Systems Control. And the result is about 6% earnings growth to the midpoint of $16.25. You see some modeling considerations listed there. And I might just add another one on seasonality for those of you who are modeling. We're anticipating 2024 being quite normal seasonality for the first and fourth quarters being a little bit below the second and third quarters, which are seasonally stronger. And that just compares to last year where the first quarter was very strong in contributing to the full year.

您可以在 OP 下面看到，由於我們概述了在 Systems Control 上關閉的借款，利息支出有所增加。結果是獲利成長約 6%，達到 16.25 美元的中點。您會看到其中列出了一些建模注意事項。我可能會為那些正在做模特兒的人添加另一項關於季節性的內容。我們預計 2024 年的季節性非常正常，第一季和第四季略低於季節性較強的第二季和第三季。與去年相比，第一季對全年的貢獻非常強勁。

So we think a very constructive year in front of us. We feel well positioned, we're happy to have the return in volumes, and we're happy to have made some portfolio net addition to continue to push profitable growth at Hubbell.

因此，我們認為我們面臨著非常有建設性的一年。我們感覺自己處於有利位置，我們很高興獲得銷售回報，並且很高興進行了一些投資組合淨增加，以繼續推動 Hubbell 的盈利增長。

And with that, I'd like to turn it back to Gerb.

說到這裡，我想把它轉回給格布。

Great. Thank you, Bill. And before we turn it over to Q&A, I think it's helpful on the last page to look at our 2023 performance and '24 outlook in a longer-term context. The results we delivered for shareholders, not only in 2023, but over the last few years have been very strong. Most notably, we have doubled our adjusted operating profit and adjusted earnings per share over a 3-year period, while growing sales at double-digit CAGR and expanded adjusted operating margins from the mid-teens to over 20%.

偉大的。謝謝你，比爾。在我們進行問答之前，我認為在最後一頁上從更長期的角度審視我們 2023 年的業績和 24 年的前景是有幫助的。我們不僅在 2023 年，而且在過去幾年為股東交付的成果都非常強勁。最值得注意的是，我們的調整後營業利潤和調整後每股收益在三年內翻了一番，銷售額以兩位數的複合年增長率增長，調整後營業利潤率從十幾歲左右擴大到超過20%。

We have also doubled our capital expenditures over the last 3 years to further differentiate our service levels to customers and support attractive long-term growth expectations. As grid modernization and electrification drives the need for more reliable, resilient and renewable energy infrastructure, Hubbell is uniquely positioned with the right people, solutions and strategy to meet the evolving needs of our customers and deliver continued value to our shareholders.

過去三年，我們的資本支出也增加了一倍，以進一步提高我們為客戶提供的服務水平，並支持有吸引力的長期成長預期。隨著電網現代化和電氣化推動了對更可靠、更有彈性和可再生能源基礎設施的需求，Hubbell 擁有獨特的優勢，擁有合適的人才、解決方案和策略，可以滿足客戶不斷變化的需求，並為股東提供持續的價值。

I'm extremely proud of our over 18,000 employees whose hard work and dedication have enabled us to achieve a new baseline of performance. And I am confident that we will build off of this success with continued attractive profitable growth in '24 and beyond.

我為我們超過 18,000 名員工感到非常自豪，他們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神使我們達到了新的績效基準。我相信，我們將在這一成功的基礎上，在 24 年及以後繼續實現有吸引力的盈利增長。

We look forward to hosting an Investor Day later this year on June 4, where we will provide more details on our long-term strategy with updated financial targets. With that, let's turn the call over to Q&A.

我們期待在今年稍後（即 6 月 4 日）舉辦投資者日，屆時我們將提供有關我們長期策略的更多詳細資訊以及最新的財務目標。接下來，讓我們將通話轉入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions). And our first question comes from Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）。我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂芬·圖薩。

Can we just get a little more color on the bridge maybe what you're expecting on price costs? And then any segment margin color for the year and how you expect that to trend seasonally?

我們能否在橋樑上多一點顏色，也許是您所期望的價格成本？然後是今年的任何細分市場利潤顏色以及您預計其季節性趨勢如何？

Yes. So price cost, we've got as flat, Steve. We have effectively 1 point of rollover on price embedded in there, which we're using effectively to offset commodity inflation. And then we've got a productivity program that we think can help offset nonmaterial inflation in places like transportation, wages and things like that. So it's quite a flat expectation. And I think the way segments -- I think, as a result of that PCP assumption, our margins by segment are reasonably flat-ish. And I'd say that applies to both segments, I would say, Steve.

是的。所以價格成本，我們已經持平了，史蒂夫。我們實際上在其中嵌入了 1 個點的價格展期，我們正在有效地利用它來抵消商品通膨。然後我們制定了一項生產力計劃，我們認為該計劃可以幫助抵消交通、工資等領域的非物質通膨。所以這是一個相當平淡的期望。我認為，由於 PCP 假設，我們的細分市場利潤率相當持平。我想說，史蒂夫，這適用於這兩個細分市場。

Does the ish on utility kind of skew one way or the other, positive or negative-ish?

對實用性的偏好是否會以某種方式傾斜，正面還是負面？

Yes. I'd say flat. What I should think about...

是的。我想說平。我該考慮什麼...

Okay. Okay. Great.

好的。好的。偉大的。

Maybe the 2 moving pieces on that, I'll give you. If you think about the addition of Systems Control, that's actually a little bit dilutive to margin, even though it's -- we've provided those numbers and a very attractive addition. And if you think about volume, it's a little bit accretive. And if you take the net of those with PCP flat, it's roughly flat.

也許我會給你兩個感動的部分。如果你考慮增加系統控制，這實際上會有點稀釋利潤，儘管我們已經提供了這些數字和一個非常有吸引力的增加。如果你考慮一下數量，你會發現它有點增值。如果你把那些有 PCP 的人的淨值取為平，它大致上是平的。

If you look at -- maybe a little bit of color on the electrical because the electrical, I think it's a slight expansion but that is with a pretty good step-up on restructuring. So if you take that out, it's actually a nicer expansion of that. And then Bill referred to it earlier, the opportunity still in that segment as they work through organizing that better competing collectively, there is more room for margin expansion there.

如果你看一下——也許電氣方面有一點色彩，因為電氣方面，我認為這是一個輕微的擴張，但這是在重組方面取得了相當好的進展。所以如果你把它去掉，它實際上是一個更好的擴展。然後比爾早些時候提到，機會仍然存在於該領域，因為他們透過組織更好的集體競爭，那裡有更多的利潤擴張空間。

And our next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague of Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的傑弗裡·斯普拉格。

Just a little more color on the utility margins. Just also thinking about the Comms Aclara business. Not sure where the margins are at in that business, but that feels like it's a friction point also, to some degree, from a mix standpoint. So wonder if you can address that, I guess, Gerben, you said flattish. So you're powering through all that, but still, we'll have some context on the mix effect of Aclara. And can you just give us a little color on how much Telcom was down in 2023? I guess we're looking for a weak 2024, but we do have sort of, at least, a half a weakness in the base here for 2023, I believe.

只是在效用利潤上多一點色彩。也要考慮 Comms Aclara 業務。不確定該業務的利潤率在哪裡，但從混合的角度來看，在某種程度上，這感覺也是一個摩擦點。所以想知道你是否能解決這個問題，我猜，Gerben，你說的是扁平化的。因此，您正在努力完成這一切，但我們仍然會了解 Aclara 混合效果的一些背景資訊。您能為我們介紹一下 2023 年電信業者的下降幅度嗎？我想我們正在尋找疲軟的 2024 年，但我相信，我們確實在 2023 年的基礎上至少有一半的疲軟。

Yes. So maybe let's start with utility margins first. And I would say for Aclara, you're right to say their margins are below the Transmission and Distribution component margins largely because of the amount of R&D investing that we're doing working on developing the next-gen comms package. So I would say in '23, particularly in this fourth quarter, where you saw them outgrowing, I would -- I think where you're going, does that create a mix drag and it did in the fourth quarter.

是的。所以也許我們先從效用利潤開始。我想說，對於 Aclara，你說他們的利潤低於輸電和配電組件的利潤是正確的，這很大程度上是因為我們正在開發下一代通訊包的研發投資量。所以我想說，在 23 年，特別是在第四季度，你看到它們增長過快，我認為你要去的地方，這是否會造成混合拖累，第四季度確實如此。

I think growth rates next year, we maybe anticipate more balanced, Jeff. So I don't think we'll have a big mix effect in utility margins in '24. And your second question was on Telcom.

我認為明年的成長率可能會更加平衡，傑夫。因此，我認為 24 年的公用事業利潤率不會產生很大的混合效應。你的第二個問題是關於電信的。

Yes, maybe provide a little context there, Jeff. And we really saw that slowing down towards the latter part of the year, particularly the fourth quarter, more specifically, was down 20%. The first quarter, we still expect that to be down double digits. And what happened early in the year, we were still working through a lot of backlog in that, which kind of shielded us a little bit. So we certainly expect, after the first quarter, probably the second quarter still to be down and then we expect it to rebound in the second half of some of that stimulus funding freeze up.

是的，也許可以提供一些背景信息，傑夫。我們確實看到今年下半年經濟放緩，特別是第四季度，更具體地說，下降了 20%。第一季度，我們仍然預計該數字將下降兩位數。今年年初發生的事情，我們仍在處理大量積壓的工作，這在某種程度上保護了我們。因此，我們當然預計，第一季之後，第二季可能仍會下降，然後我們預計下半年會反彈，因為部分刺激資金會凍結。

And Gerben, can you also just address kind of your ability on just kind of factory throughput here is the industry, particularly on the utility side, seem to want to compound out here at pretty healthy growth rates. Everything kind of buttoned up on the factory work you've been doing or there's more to do there? Maybe just a little bit of a skyline and what to expect on CapEx?

Gerben，您能否也談談您在工廠吞吐量方面的能力，這個行業，特別是在公用事業方面，似乎希望以相當健康的增長率實現複合。您一直在工廠工作的一切都已經搞定了，還是還有更多工作要做？也許只是一點點天際線以及對資本支出的期望？

Yes. I'd say more to do, Jeff. Some of those projects take time to get some of that equipment and online. So if you think about, for example, our Transmission and Substation markets, particularly strong last year and this coming year as well, as you saw. And that requires some capital that still needing to come online. Now I feel good about our ability to do that. We've done that very well over the last year. So that's going to support some of that growth that we have embedded in our guidance.

是的。我想說還有更多事情要做，傑夫。其中一些項目需要時間才能獲得一些設備並上線。因此，如果您考慮我們的輸電和變電站市場，去年和明年尤其強勁，正如您所看到的。這需要一些仍然需要上線的資本。現在我對我們做到這一點的能力感到滿意。去年我們在這方面做得非常好。因此，這將支持我們納入指導的部分成長。

And then one last one. I'm sorry. If you're not done, go ahead. I just had one last whole follow-up, if I could.

然後是最後一張。對不起。如果你還沒完成，請繼續。如果可以的話，我剛剛進行了最後一次完整的跟進。

Please go.

請離開。

I just want to kind of come back to the seasonality comment and everything. Totally get it, and that's sort of what I've been modeling. But given that -- given the margin comps in the beginning of the year in particular, are you expecting EPS to actually grow year-over-year in Q1?

我只是想回到季節性評論和一切。完全明白了，這就是我一直在建模的東西。但考慮到這一點，特別是年初的利潤率，您是否預計第一季每股收益實際上會比去年同期成長？

Yes, I think that we just aren't -- we don't do EPS in the -- by the quarterly guide basis. I just would say I'd anticipate our Q1 earnings to be in line with contributing to the full year at our typical seasonality and more so than it did last year. So...

是的，我認為我們只是不——我們不按季度指導來計算每股收益。我只是想說，我預計我們第一季的收益將與我們典型的季節性因素對全年的貢獻一致，並且比去年更多。所以...

And our next question comes from Tommy Moll of Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的湯米·莫爾。

I wanted to start on the utility side of the business. It seems like for most of last year, it was more a discussion around availability rather than price. With that said, given some of the inventory destocking, particularly around distribution, has that conversation changed at all? Is price a bigger factor at this point?

我想從公用事業方面開始業務。在去年的大部分時間裡，似乎更多的是圍繞可用性而不是價格的討論。話雖如此，考慮到一些庫存去庫存，特別是在分銷方面，這種說法有改變嗎？目前價格是更重要的因素嗎？

I would not say so, Tommy, no.

我不會這麼說，湯米，不。

Good to hear it. I guess that then begs a follow-up where in your full year outlook, you contemplate, I think you said, Bill, a point of wraparound price, but you did highlight some uncertainty in certain pockets. What are those pockets you were referencing there?

很高興聽到這個消息。我想這需要一個後續行動，在你的全年展望中，你考慮，我想你說過，比爾，一個總體價格點，但你確實強調了某些方面的一些不確定性。你指的那些口袋是什麼？

Yes. So I think Telcom would be the first to see a market down. I think just puts a little pressure on that. And so that's really the most noteworthy one. I think other areas where things are overstocked can put a little pressure sometimes. So we -- we've had a very successful pricing tactic over the last really 2 years. And so it's something that we are, a, very focused on; b, are in very close conversations with our big customers.

是的。因此，我認為電信公司將是第一個看到市場下跌的公司。我認為只是對此施加了一點壓力。這確實是最值得注意的。我認為庫存過剩的其他地區有時會帶來一些壓力。因此，我們在過去兩年採取了非常成功的定價策略。所以這是我們非常關注的事情； b，與我們的大客戶進行非常密切的對話。

Gerben and I happen to be visiting with a few of our largest customers over the course of the last couple of weeks and just your -- to your point, none of them are asking about price other than to make sure we're coordinated with them, give them enough time to implement price increases and let them manage that through their systems. But it's -- I've described price as of this moment, Tommy, is still quite constructive.

格本和我在過去幾週碰巧拜訪了我們的一些最大的客戶，就您而言，他們除了確保我們與他們協調之外，沒有人詢問價格，給他們足夠的時間來實施價格上漲，並讓他們透過他們的系統進行管理。但湯米，我目前所描述的價格仍然很有建設性。

And maybe to your point that there may be some headwinds, I'd also say that we built into the guidance to carry over, but we also announced price increases early this year. It's early to tell at this stage, only a few weeks in the stick rates, but again, the conversations that we're having are very positive to those taken hold. So we have levers against potential headwinds by taking price, too.

也許就你所說的可能存在一些阻力而言，我還想說，我們已經將其納入了指導方針中，但我們今年早些時候也宣布了價格上漲。現在判斷還為時過早，固定利率只有幾週的時間，但我們正在進行的對話對那些已經採取行動的人來說是非常積極的。因此，我們也可以透過定價來應對潛在的阻力。

And our next question comes from Nigel Coe of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科。

So Bill, I just wanted to be a bit more specific, typical seasonality for 1Q, it looks like about 20% of the full year. Is that about the right zone for your math?

比爾，我只是想更具體一點，第一季的典型季節性，看起來大約是全年的 20%。這對你的數學來說是正確的區域嗎？

Yes, a little. I would have said 21%, if you asked me. Yes.

對，一點。如果你問我的話，我會說 21%。是的。

Okay. That's great. And then just the electrical performance this quarter is obviously outstanding. The 6% organic growth pretty flat Q-over-Q in both revenues and margins. So is that mainly a channel impact you're seeing there? I know you called out strength and electrification and data center systems. I'm just curious in terms of the end market demand, what you saw during the quarter being specific there.

好的。那太棒了。然後，本季度的電氣性能顯然非常出色。 6% 的有機成長在收入和利潤率方面與上一季相比相當持平。那麼您所看到的這主要是通路影響嗎？我知道您強調了電力、電氣化和資料中心系統。我只是對終端市場需求感到好奇，您在本季所看到的具體情況。

Yes, I'm not sure I'm getting at the essence of what you're asking. We did find that vertically data centers and renewables were both good that benefited our PCX business and our Burndy business. And I do think we saw from our big customers, if that's where you're pushing in areas where they had been managing their inventories, we saw return to growth in those as well. So I'm not sure if you're getting that customer behavior or end markets there. But we had a kind of a little bit of a mix of both.

是的，我不確定我是否理解了您所問問題的本質。我們確實發現垂直資料中心和再生能源都很好，這有利於我們的 PCX 業務和 Burndy 業務。我確實認為我們從我們的大客戶那裡看到，如果這是你在他們一直管理庫存的領域推動的地方，我們也看到了這些領域的成長。所以我不確定你是否了解那裡的客戶行為或終端市場。但我們兩者都有一點混合。

Yes. I mean it wasn't a straight question, I know. But do you think the channel impact was fairly neutral. So selling the seller pretty similar, but I guess that's sort of the answer to my question. But really then, when we think about the margin exit rate for 4Q into 2024, I know you've said flattish impact in '24, restructuring is picking up. So that's obviously a headwind in '24. But just curious about the lighting impact because that's coming out. So I think that, that would probably drive more of a bias toward expansion in electrical. So just curious if you agree with that.

是的。我知道這不是一個直截了當的問題。但您認為通路影響相當中性嗎？因此，向賣家出售的產品非常相似，但我想這就是我問題的答案。但實際上，當我們考慮 2024 年第四季的利潤退出率時，我知道你說過 24 年的影響持平，重組正在加速。所以這顯然是 24 年的逆風。但只是對燈光的影響感到好奇，因為那是出來的。所以我認為，這可能會更偏向電力領域的擴張。所以只是好奇你是否同意這一點。

I do agree they were sort of at double digits versus what you see is a better margin at the segment. So I do agree.

我確實同意他們的利潤率是兩位數，而你看到的是該領域的利潤率更高。所以我同意。

And then setting the sellout?

然後設定售罄？

Yes, it's pretty consistent in the quarter, Nigel.

是的，本季的情況非常穩定，奈傑爾。

And our next question comes from Julian Mitchell of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just trying to understand and fully comprehend that you don't give sort of detailed quarterly guidance, but you've got the 4% organic growth guide for the year in revenue. And you have the color around a weak start to the year in Telcom, a bit of extra utility destock and maybe the last drags of nonresi electrical destock. So all of that seems to suggest a stronger second half organic growth rate. Just wondered how much of an improvement year-on-year are you dialing in through the year as we go to get to that 4% for the year as a whole?

也許只是想了解並充分理解，您沒有提供詳細的季度指導，但您已經獲得了當年收入 4% 的有機成長指導。電信公司今年開局疲軟，公用事業公司進行了一些額外的去庫存，也許還有非電力公司去庫存的最後拖累。因此，所有這些似乎都表明下半年有機成長率將更加強勁。只是想知道，當我們全年達到 4% 的目標時，您在這一年中會實現多少同比改進？

Yes, Julian, first of all, welcome to the call. Nice to have you. And I would say that the utility destock we'll see, but we could -- if you -- we could be at the point of kind of having be done with that as well. And I would say on the electrical side, we feel more confident that we are. Your Telcom point is right. I think we do anticipate a weaker start.

是的，朱利安，首先，歡迎致電。很高興有你。我想說的是，我們會看到公用事業去庫存，但我們可以——如果你——我們也可以做到這一點。我想說，在電氣方面，我們對此更有信心。您的電信觀點是正確的。我認為我們確實預計會有一個較弱的開局。

And as you think about -- you're sort of introducing sequential seasonality and how that's going to look VPY compare. And I think what -- on the VPY basis, some of the second half compares because of the destocking could actually be a little bit easier. For example, first quarter last year was actually quite strong. And I think seasonality-wise, we upped our investments at the second half of last year as those wrap around that creates a more consistent and easier second half.

如您所想，您有點引入了連續季節性以及 VPY 比較的情況。我認為，在 VPY 的基礎上，由於庫存減少，下半年的一些情況實際上可能會更容易。例如，去年第一季實際上相當強勁。我認為從季節性角度來看，我們在去年下半年增加了投資，因為這些投資創造了更一致、更輕鬆的下半年。

So I think as those things net against each other, that's kind of how we're getting to a more typical seasonal year. Even though I hear you, there's obviously puts and takes and forces that work here.

所以我認為，隨著這些因素相互影響，這就是我們如何進入一個更典型的季節性年份。儘管我聽到了你的聲音，但顯然這裡有各種因素在發揮作用。

And maybe, Julian, I'll provide maybe a little more context on that. And you're right to point out there's still some headwinds. But one way to look at it, and I realize it's an early data point, but as we look at how we're starting off the year and we look at our order balance and trends here in January, it's actually supportive to what Bill is somewhat hesitantly saying that we could be exiting our destocking, it's constructive. As I'd say, early read into the year is that it's constructive to kind of this profile of seasonal guidance.

朱利安，也許我會提供更多相關背景資訊。你指出仍然存在一些阻力是正確的。但從一個角度來看，我意識到這是一個早期的數據點，但當我們審視今年的開局以及一月份的訂單平衡和趨勢時，它實際上支持了比爾的目標有點猶豫地說我們可以退出去庫存，這是建設性的。正如我所說，今年早些時候的解讀是，這種季節性指導概況是有建設性的。

And then just a quick follow-up. That Slide 10, the nonresidential vertical within Electrical, the flat to plus low single guide for the year. You understand fully on the channel stocking largely having run its course. But maybe just the market outlook, you used that word uncertain. Just any sort of color you could put around that, what you're seeing in different verticals in that nonresi bucket?

然後進行快速跟進。 Slide 10 是電氣領域的非住宅垂直領域，是年度從平到低的單一指南。你完全了解渠道備貨基本上已經走到了盡頭。但也許只是市場前景，你用了「不確定」這個詞。只要你可以在它周圍放置任何類型的顏色，你在那個 nonresi 桶中的不同垂直方向上看到了什麼？

I just think maybe the pressure on office, just feels like it puts a little bit less certainty. I mean it's quite a constructive pie. So I guess by, I think, less certainty puts you in still a growth position. But it just -- I think the institutional side, probably be stronger, but maybe some of that office could be weaker. So I think there's that mix effect just puts it in the low growth rather than the rest of the pie, which is more medium growth.

我只是覺得，也許辦公室的壓力，只是感覺它減少了一些確定性。我的意思是，這是一個很有建設性的派。所以我想，我認為，不確定性的降低會讓你仍然處於成長的位置。但我認為機構方面可能會更強，但也許某些辦公室可能會更弱。因此，我認為混合效應只是將其置於低成長，而不是其餘部分，即中等成長。

One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Brett Linzey of Mizuho.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗銀行的布雷特‧林澤 (Brett Linzey)。

I wanted to come back to the investments, and you talked about some of the carryover in the first half. Just wanted to clarify, are these embedded within the volume portion of the bridge and separate from the footprint. Just trying to understand if you could quantify the investment versus restructuring and what those paybacks might look like.

我想回到投資上來，您談到了上半年的一些結轉。只是想澄清一下，這些是否嵌入橋的體積部分中並與足跡分開。只是想了解是否可以量化投資與重組以及這些回報可能會是什麼樣子。

Yes. So if last year, it was an investment that continues, i.e., if you added head count, it would show up, yes, in margins, in volume. So as we step things up in areas last year, for example, like new product development or people to work on productivity initiatives that would wrap around a higher cost wouldn't be a new investment, right? It would show up as you're saying, Brett, in March of that volume.

是的。因此，如果去年這是一項持續的投資，也就是說，如果你增加了員工人數，那麼它就會反映在利潤率和數量上。因此，當我們去年在一些領域加大力度時，例如，新產品開發或人員致力於提高成本的生產力計劃，這不會是一項新投資，對嗎？正如你所說，布雷特，它會在該卷的三月出現。

And then anything you can share in terms of the paybacks on these footprints is something embedded this year? Or is that a little bit longer term?

那麼您可以分享的關於這些足跡的回報的任何內容都是今年嵌入的嗎？或者說這個期限有點長？

Yes. I think the new -- I think there's order of magnitude, another $10 million of R&R in that bucket that will be invested this year. It's of a footprint nature. And I think the paybacks are that we have good ROICs on that. The paybacks tend to be in the 3-ish year range. And so we're sort of investing today in those cases with benefits that probably start a year or 2 from now.

是的。我認為新的——我認為有一個數量級，今年將在該桶中再投資 1000 萬美元的 R&R。它具有足跡性質。我認為回報是我們在這方面擁有良好的投資報酬率。投資回收期通常在 3 年左右。因此，我們現在正在對這些案例進行投資，這些案例可能會在一兩年後開始帶來好處。

Maybe the other thing that I would say is embedded in some of those improvements will drive a higher level of productivity that's embedded in our guidance. So when you look at the construct of flat price cost productivity, it has a higher level of productivity and a higher level of inflation in it to offset it. So that's where some of those investments are going.

也許我想說的另一件事是嵌入在其中一些改進中，這將推動我們指導中嵌入的更高層次的生產力。因此，當你審視統一價格成本生產力的結構時，你會發現它具有更高水準的生產力和更高水準的通貨膨脹來抵消它。這就是其中一些投資的去向。

Okay. Great. And then just a follow-up on the price expectations. So it sounds like no incremental actions embedded in the planning. I'd imagine you're seeing some raw nonmaterial inflation. Maybe just a little context as to maybe what that potential hedge could look like if you do see sticking on some of these actions that you are out in the marketplace with.

好的。偉大的。然後是價格預期的後續行動。所以聽起來計劃中沒有嵌入增量行動。我想你會看到一些原始的非物質通貨膨脹。也許只是一點背景知識，如果你確實看到堅持你在市場上採取的一些行動，那麼潛在的對沖可能會是什麼樣子。

Yes. I mean, You'd be kind of maybe add a little bit about a speculative sensitivity analysis, right? So you could see each point of price gets us north obviously of $50 million of price. And if that's a lot of leverage if there's no corresponding inflation to that. Conversely, if you have to give a little, it equally as kind of this 100% sort of drop-through.

是的。我的意思是，您可能會添加一些有關推測敏感性分析的內容，對嗎？因此，您可以看到每個價格點都使我們的價格明顯高於 5000 萬美元。如果沒有相應的通貨膨脹，那麼槓桿作用就很大。相反，如果你必須付出一點，那也相當於 100% 的放棄。

And so, as Gerben sort of outlined, I think we have because of the investments we made last year, we have a more ambitious productivity target level, and we certainly see some inflation on wage, transportation area as well as in kind of the material related areas. So I think getting the rigor that we need to focus on all of those levers to come out even ahead is sort of a -- it's an obsession. We review it really carefully every month at Gerben's and my level and keep continue to push enough initiatives to make sure we stay even or ahead.

因此，正如格本所概述的那樣，我認為由於去年的投資，我們有了更雄心勃勃的生產力目標水平，而且我們當然會看到工資、交通領域以及材料方面的一些通貨膨脹。相關領域。所以我認為，我們需要嚴格關注所有這些槓桿，才能取得成功，這有點像——這是一種痴迷。我們每個月都會在格本和我的層面上仔細審查，並繼續推動足夠的舉措，以確保我們保持平衡或領先。

And our next question comes from Joe O'Dea of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

First, I just wanted to focus on the 2024 bridge. And if we think about it, I guess, in 3 buckets with the organic piece, the M&A piece and then some of the restructuring, is it fair to think about a 25% incremental on the organic piece? And then on the M&A side of things, can you add any detail on what you think interest expense is in '24, just so we get that right in the model? And does that interest expense contemplate the deployment of resi lighting proceeds?

首先，我只想關注 2024 年大橋。如果我們考慮一下，我想，將有機部分、併購部分和一些重組分為三個部分，考慮有機部分的 25% 增量是否公平？然後在併購方面，您能否添加您認為 24 年利息支出的任何細節，以便我們在模型中獲得正確的結果？該利息支出是否考慮了 Resi 照明收益的部署？

Yes. So I think we -- you could put in about $40 million of incremental interest expense. And I think the drop-through of 25% on volume is reasonable. I'd rather see that more like 30%, but somewhere in that high 20s is reasonable, I think.

是的。所以我認為我們——你可以投入大約 4000 萬美元的增量利息支出。我認為成交量下降 25% 是合理的。我寧願看到 30% 左右，但我認為 20% 以上是合理的。

And the resi lighting proceeds?

樹脂照明繼續進行嗎？

Yes. So we've -- you see we have interest income there as a plus and interest expense as a minus. So we sort of built the construct that it's either cash that's going to earn or it's -- yes, it's going to be available to pay down. And I guess -- so I guess the one thing I'd say is it's explicit that we're not modeling in our guidance any new acquisitions. And so that would be incremental to this guide.

是的。所以我們——你看我們有利息收入作為正數，利息支出作為負數。因此，我們建構了這樣一種結構：要么是能夠賺取現金，要么是——是的，它將可以用來償還。我想 - 所以我想我要說的一件事是，很明顯，我們沒有在我們的指導中對任何新收購進行建模。因此，這將是本指南的增量內容。

Got it. And then on the electrical side, the -- can you size roughly what the destock headwind was to top line growth in '23? And so just kind of the non-repeat of that, what we should think about as that kind of contribution to the plus 3% to 4% for '24?

知道了。然後在電力方面，您能否大致估算一下 23 年去庫存逆風對營收成長的影響？就這樣，我們應該考慮一下對 24 年 3% 到 4% 的成長的貢獻是什麼？

Yes. Overall, I'd say sell-through volumes were down kind of in the high single to low double digits most of the year. And I think sell-through was flattish to slightly up. So it got better in the fourth quarter. But overall, I think you can think about mid-single-digit impact on a full year basis.

是的。總體而言，我想說，今年大部分時間銷量都在高個位數到低兩位數的範圍內下降。我認為銷量持平甚至略有上升。所以第四季情況有所好轉。但總的來說，我認為你可以考慮全年中個位數的影響。

Okay. And then just a clarification that the fourth quarter 9% organic in utility, did you give the price and volume split of that?

好的。然後澄清一下，第四季度的有機利用率為 9%，您是否給出了其價格和銷量的分配？

Yes. The volume was negative, right? So the -- it aid into the price.

是的。音量是負的，對吧？所以——它有助於價格。

Volume is slightly positive, Joe, sorry.

成交量略顯積極，喬，抱歉。

Volume is slightly positive?

成交量略顯正？

Yes. You're asking for a whole of utility. Sorry, I thought you were talking about (inaudible).

是的。您要求的是整體實用性。抱歉，我以為你在談論（聽不清楚）。

Yes, sorry. Just that 9% whole organic, so a slightly positive volume.

是的，抱歉。僅有 9% 為有機成分，因此銷售量略為正值。

And our next question comes from Nicholas Amicucci of TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Nicholas Amicucci。

I just had a couple. I wanted to hone in on the Electrical Solutions segment. So obviously, going to benefit somewhat this year from the footprint optimization. Just wanted to see how much -- I mean, how much more headroom do you guys have from an optimization perspective within that segment?

我剛喝了幾個。我想專注於電氣解決方案領域。顯然，今年將從足跡優化中受益。只是想看看，從優化的角度來看，你們在該細分市場中還有多少空間？

Yes. I mean the -- I'd say that we still have projects that are, [this year, it] will be consolidating locations, so you'd be absorbing volume in existing locations. And then after you get the value, there's always the chance to keep putting in bigger, more scaled facilities. So you can answer your question with a very long perspective. But if you took it a little bit more narrowly, I'd say, in the next few years, we'd be at a stage where we'd be quite happy with the optimization process. You're probably never done, I guess, the point, but I think we go along into achieving sort of our desired goals in just a few years.

是的。我的意思是——我想說，我們仍然有一些項目，[今年]將整合地點，所以你會吸收現有地點的數量。在獲得價值後，總有機會繼續投入更大、規模更大的設施。所以你可以從長遠的角度來回答你的問題。但如果你把它看得更窄一點，我想說，在接下來的幾年裡，我們將處於一個對優化過程非常滿意的階段。我想，你可能還沒有完成這一點，但我認為我們將在短短幾年內實現我們期望的目標。

Sure. That's fair. Then I did want to touch upon too. So I think the guidance within the press release, it indicated about $1.60 of the amortization, that's in adjusted EPS. And so if you do the math, that's roughly $86 million for the year. We did just -- within utilities, I mean, I understand that there was a significant step-up in 4Q probably related to the Systems Control. But just wanted to get a better sense of kind of the timing of that amortization, and kind of the breakdown between Utilities and Electrical Solutions.

當然。這還算公平。然後我也想談談。因此，我認為新聞稿中的指導表明，攤銷額約為 1.60 美元，即調整後每股收益。如果你算一下，今年的收入大約是 8,600 萬美元。我們只是——在公用事業內部，我的意思是，我知道第四季度有一個重大的進步，可能與系統控制有關。但只是想更了解攤銷的時間，以及公用事業和電氣解決方案之間的細分。

Yes. So the -- so we've been running at $1 for a while. So the $0.60 that's new is all in utilities. So as you separate them. And when you think about the amortization, a lot of it is going to customer value and places that have quite a long by law, I mean, like 20 years. So it's a pretty stable run rate.

是的。所以，我們已經以 1 美元的價格運行了一段時間了。因此，新增的 0.60 美元全部用於公用事業。所以當你把它們分開時。當你考慮攤銷時，你會發現其中很大一部分都將用於客戶價值和法律規定的攤銷期限相當長的地方，我的意思是，例如 20 年。所以這是一個相當穩定的運行率。

And our next question comes from Chris Snyder of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·史奈德。

I wanted to ask on utility margins. And specifically, I guess the expectation that an organic margins will be flattish for 2024. I know it's asking because you guys are exiting the year well below where you started and maybe M&A had a bit of a headwind in Q4, but it feels like organic, it's in Q4 down a good deal versus the first half. So is it fair to -- does the guide assume that utility organic margins are down year-on-year in the first half and then return to growth into the back half? Or should we expect them up year-on-year throughout the year?

我想問一下效用利潤。具體來說，我猜想2024 年的有機利潤率將持平。我知道這是在問，因為你們今年的退出時間遠低於開始時的水平，也許併購在第四季度遇到了一些逆風，但感覺像是有機利潤率，第四季比上半年下降了很多。那麼，該指南是否假設公用事業有機利潤率在上半年同比下降，然後在下半年恢復成長，這公平嗎？或者我們應該期望它們全年同比增長？

Yes. I would assume they're kind of flattish through the -- like I don't think there's anything -- I think I'd look maybe at the shape of '23, because I know exactly what you're observing, right? You see a sequential step down in margins. Some of that is attributable to some spending, investing that we're doing. Some of it is attributable to the Aclara mix effect. Some of it is attributable to the fact that the volumes inside of Power Systems were going through their destocking work with our customer channel partners.

是的。我認為它們有點平坦——就像我不認為有任何東西一樣——我想我可能會看看'23的形狀，因為我確切地知道你在觀察什麼，對吧？您會看到利潤率連續下降。其中一些歸因於我們正在進行的一些支出和投資。其中一些可歸因於 Aclara 混合效果。部分原因是 Power Systems 內部的庫存正在與我們的客戶通路合作夥伴進行去庫存工作。

And so I think, again, we just see that, Chris, returning to a more normal shape. And so I think the volume piece of Power Systems becomes quite important to that, I think we see the mix with Aclara start to balance to equal more equal contributions. And so I think in a balanced world, we would expect margins in Q1 and Q4 to be below the margins in Q2 and Q3. And that, that shape in '24 should feel quite normal.

所以我想，我們再次看到，克里斯，恢復到更正常的狀態。因此，我認為 Power Systems 的體積部分對此變得非常重要，我認為我們看到與 Aclara 的混合開始平衡以達到更平等的貢獻。因此，我認為在一個平衡的世界中，我們預計第一季和第四季的利潤率將低於第二季和第三季的利潤率。而且，24 年的那個形狀應該感覺很正常。

I appreciate that. And then, just as a follow-up on utility margins. So I know they're always down sequentially into Q4, just lower revenue. This quarter came in quite a deal sharper than we expected. Is the company starting to feel the impact of higher metal prices? I know steel has been up a lot over the last 3, 4 months. Is that starting to come through in Q4 on those utility margins? Or is that still more of maybe a '24 dynamic?

我很感激。然後，就像效用利潤率的後續行動一樣。所以我知道他們總是在第四季連續下降，只是收入下降。本季的交易比我們預期的要快得多。公司是否開始感受到金屬價格上漲的影響？我知道鋼鐵在過去三、四個月上漲了很多。這是否會在第四季度開始在公用事業利潤率上實現？還是這更像是 24 世紀的動態？

Yes. I mean we certainly saw starting November, December steel move. And I would say the way that works through the supply chain, there's usually a couple of months lag on when we, as a LIFO company pay those most recent prices. So I think we'll feel those prices -- those costs, if you will, in the first quarter and maybe the mid- to end of the first quarter.

是的。我的意思是，從 11 月到 12 月，我們確實看到了鋼鐵的走勢。我想說的是，按照供應鏈的運作方式，作為一家後進先出公司，我們支付最新價格時通常會有幾個月的延遲。所以我認為我們會在第一季度，也許是第一季中後期感受到這些價格——如果你願意的話，這些成本。

And our next question comes from Scott Graham of Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自海港研究合作夥伴的斯科特·格雷厄姆。

Just really the question I have is about the portfolio management slide. And particularly now with Systems Control in the fold, you have a couple of nice sized bubbles under which to acquire. What is the outlook there for -- what does the pipeline look like? I mean you've got a 1.4 net leverage is a really good number to work off of sort of what are your aspirations in '24, maybe even by telling us would you be disappointed without another good-sized deal this year?

我真正的問題是關於投資組合管理幻燈片。特別是現在，隨著系統控制的出現，您可以在下面獲得一些大小合適的氣泡。那裡的前景如何——管道是什麼樣的？我的意思是，你的淨槓桿率為1.4，這對於實現你在24 年的願望來說是一個非常好的數字，甚至可以告訴我們，如果今年沒有另一筆大筆交易，你會感到失望嗎？

Yes. It's an interesting way to phrase the question. I'd come at it from 2 perspectives. The first you already raised, which is we are very comfortable with our leverage levels. So we think, financially, we certainly can afford to invest in acquisitions. And I would say, secondly, is kind of the integration perspective, and we'd like to make sure that we have Systems Control well integrated. We've got a healthy amount of people kind of working together. It's off to a great start. Our customers are happy with it. It feels like a good cultural fit, but it still takes work to make sure that it's integrated and we don't want to have too many plates spinning.

是的。這是一個有趣的表達問題的方式。我從兩個角度來看這個問題。您已經籌集了第一筆資金，我們對我們的槓桿水平非常滿意。因此，我們認為，從財務上來說，我們當然有能力投資收購。我想說，其次，是一種整合角度，我們希望確保系統控制能夠很好地整合。我們有很多人一起工作。這是一個好的開始。我們的客戶對此感到滿意。這感覺像是一種很好的文化契合，但仍然需要努力確保它的整合，而且我們不希望有太多的板塊旋轉。

So your question may be, well revisited 3 months from now. But I agree with you that strategically, we'd love to add businesses in the Northeast and financially northeast of this matrix of higher growth, higher margin. And yes, we feel we have capacity both in cash flow generation, we'll be up in the $800 million range this year, plus, as you pointed out, I think, balance sheet capacity. So we're -- so I think let's just revisit that question maybe in 3 months and see how we feel. But it's a good -- it's a good question.

所以你的問題可能是，三個月後再重新檢視。但我同意你的觀點，從戰略上講，我們希望在東北地區增加業務，並在財務上增加這個更高成長、更高利潤矩陣的東北地區的業務。是的，我們認為我們有能力產生現金流，今年我們的現金流將達到 8 億美元，此外，正如您所指出的，我認為還有資產負債表能力。所以我想我們可能會在 3 個月後重新審視這個問題，看看我們的感受如何。但這是一個好問題——這是一個好問題。

Well, fair enough. I guess I was just wondering also what the pipeline itself looks like and you can send people off a little bit.

好吧，很公平。我想我只是想知道管道本身是什麼樣子，你可以讓人們離開一點。

Yes. There is a pretty decent pipeline, and there's quite a few things we're expecting to at least probe the market in the second half of the year. So that doesn't mean we'll buy any of those or they'll be attractive. But there is an interesting amount of what appears to be inventory may be coming to market.

是的。有相當不錯的管道，而且我們預計至少會在今年下半年探索市場。因此，這並不意味著我們會購買其中任何一個，或者它們會很有吸引力。但有大量庫存可能會進入市場。

At this time, I'd like to turn it back to Gerben Bakker for closing remarks.

現在，我想請 Gerben Bakker 致閉幕詞。

Great. Thank you. I appreciate all the questions, the quite robust time we put out for that in this call to focus on our outlook. Maybe I'll close by saying that I feel really good about the year and our ability to deliver on our commitments to you to drive profitable growth after a few years of really outperformance. So look forward to our Investor Day later in the year into our first quarter call. Let's talk about how we're doing so far this year. So, thanks much.

偉大的。謝謝。我感謝所有的問題，我們在這次電話會議中花了相當多的時間來關注我們的前景。也許我最後會說，我對這一年感覺非常好，而且我們有能力兌現對您的承諾，在幾年的真正出色表現之後推動盈利增長。因此，請期待今年稍後我們第一季電話會議的投資者日。讓我們談談今年到目前為止我們的表現如何。所以，非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。