好時 (HSY) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Hershey Company's third-quarter 2026 question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

各位好。歡迎參加好時公司（The Hershey Company）2026 年第三季問答環節。（接線員指示）提醒各位，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Anoori Naughton, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Hershey Company. Thank you, you may begin.

現在我想把電話交給本次會議主持人——好時公司投資人關係副總裁 Anoori Naughton。謝謝，您可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for The Hershey Company's third-quarter 2026 earnings Q&A session. I hope everyone has had the chance to read our press release and listen to our prerecorded management remarks. both of which are available on our website. In addition, we have posted a transcript of the prerecorded remarks. At the conclusion of today's live Q&A session, we will also post a transcript and audio replay of this call.

各位早安。感謝各位今天參加好時公司 2026 年第三季財報問答（Q&A）會議。希望各位都已閱讀我們的新聞稿並收聽我們預先錄製的管理層談話。兩者皆可在我們的網站上取得。此外，我們也已上傳預錄談話的逐字稿。在今天的即時問答結束後，我們也會上傳本次電話會議的逐字稿與音訊重播。

Please note that during today's Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These statements include expectations and assumptions regarding the company's future operations and financial performance. Actual results could differ materially from those projected. The company undertakes no obligation to update these statements based on subsequent events. A detailed listing of such risks and uncertainties can be found in today's press release and the company's SEC filings.

請注意，在今天的問答環節中，我們可能會作出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受多項風險與不確定性影響。這些陳述包含對公司未來營運與財務表現的預期與假設。實際結果可能與預測有重大差異。公司不承擔因後續事件而更新這些陳述的義務。關於此類風險與不確定性的詳細清單，請參閱今日新聞稿及公司向 SEC 提交的文件。

Finally, please note that we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe provide useful information for investors. This information is not intended to be in consideration in isolation or as a substitute for financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations to the GAAP results are included in this morning's press release. Joining me today are Hershey's President and CEO, Kirk Tanner; and Hershey's Senior Vice President and CFO, Dave Hulays.

最後，請注意我們可能會提及某些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標，我們認為這些指標可為投資人提供有用資訊。此資訊不應單獨考量，亦不應作為依 GAAP 編製之財務資訊的替代。與 GAAP 結果的調節表已包含於今早的新聞稿中。今天與我一同出席的有：好時總裁兼執行長 Kirk Tanner，以及好時資深副總裁兼財務長 Dave Hulays。

Operator, we can kick it over for the first question.

接線員，我們可以開始第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Lazar, Barclays.

（接線員指示）Barclays 的 Andrew Lazar。

Great. Thanks so much. Good morning, Kirk and Dave and Anoori. Maybe to start, in your prepared remarks, you stated Hershey still has visibility to sales growth in '27 in line with your long-term algorithm of 2% to 4%. So my question, I guess, is what gives you this level of visibility in light of the tougher macro backdrop? And is it increasingly likely we get there solely from carryover price, or should we expect maybe Hershey to get back to some even modest level of volume growth next year as the company more fully lapse pricing?

太好了。非常感謝。早安，Kirk、Dave 和 Anoori。先從一個問題開始：在你們的事先準備發言中，你們表示好時仍能看見 2027 年的銷售成長可符合你們長期演算法（long-term algorithm）的 2% 到 4%。所以我的問題是，在更具挑戰的總體環境背景下，是什麼讓你們有這樣的能見度？另外，達成該目標是否愈來愈可能僅靠價格遞延效應（carryover price），還是我們應預期在公司更完整地度過定價基期（lapse pricing）後，明年好時能回到某種程度、即便溫和的銷量成長？

Yeah. Thanks, Andrew. I'll take that one. Look, we are confident in the actions we control and the results that are already delivering, so we are holding that 2% to 4% outlook. Now, the consumer and macro backdrop, as you mentioned, will influence where we land in that range. I like to think about this in what we can control and what's kind of out of our control.

是的，謝謝你，Andrew。這題我來回答。我們對自己可掌控的行動，以及已經在交付的成果有信心，因此維持 2% 到 4% 的展望。如你所提，消費者與總體環境背景會影響我們落在區間的哪一端。我喜歡用「我們能控制的」與「某種程度上不在我們控制範圍內的」來思考。

The things that we can control, our competitiveness is really driven by refresh media, innovation, programming; let me talk a little bit about each. Our media that we've seen in the first half of the year is working, is we've got a good return on investment. We've seen our Hershey brand grow 7% in the last 13 weeks. We have three new campaigns so we're getting momentum with the media that we're spending or getting a higher return on investment. So, I like what we're doing there.

我們能控制的部分，我們的競爭力主要由媒體投放更新（refresh media）、創新、以及行銷活動規劃（programming）所驅動；我分別談一下。我們看到今年上半年媒體投放是有效的，投資報酬率不錯。我們看到 Hershey 品牌在過去 13 週成長 7%。我們有三個新的行銷活動，因此我們在媒體投放上正在累積動能，或是取得更高的投資報酬率。所以，我很喜歡我們在這方面的作法。

Innovation, we've talked a lot about. We've had really good innovation this year on Dot's Snack Mix, Hershey Creme bar is the number one innovation in the last four weeks. Reese's Filled Pretzels, Reese's Oreo that we've talked about, that's the largest innovation over the last 52 weeks. But when we look into '27, we have a 50% increase on our innovation pipeline. We're going to be much more competitive on innovation.

創新方面，我們談了很多。今年我們在 Dot's Snack Mix 上有非常好的創新；Hershey Creme bar 在過去四週是第一名的創新產品。我們也談過 Reese's Filled Pretzels、Reese's Oreo——這是過去 52 週最大的創新。但展望 2027 年，我們的創新產品管線將增加 50%。我們在創新上會更具競爭力。

Programming, we talked about tentpole events like March Madness, S'mores, Back To School. We have seen improvement on those in double-digit growth, so we have more programming against those big events next year. We also believe that our Salty business can definitely produce more for us in '27 both on the top line and the bottom line.

行銷活動規劃方面，我們談到像是 NCAA 三月瘋（March Madness）、S'mores、返校季（Back To School）等關鍵檔期（tentpole events）。我們看到這些檔期的表現改善，呈現雙位數成長，因此明年我們會針對這些大型檔期投入更多活動規劃。我們也相信，我們的鹹食（Salty）業務在 2027 年無論在營收端或獲利端，都能為我們帶來更多貢獻。

And I tell you we have great RGM strategies that include low single-digit carryover pricing next year. Now, those things that are out of our control, our consumer spending, which is certainly pressured by higher gas prices and overall cost inflation, and as a result, if the category is a little lower than expected, then we would expect to be in the lower part of the range. That's kind of how we're thinking about next year.

另外我想說，我們有很好的營收成長管理（RGM）策略，其中包含明年低個位數的遞延定價（carryover pricing）。至於不在我們控制範圍內的部分，是消費者支出——這確實受到油價上升與整體成本通膨的壓力；因此，如果品類表現比預期稍弱，我們就可能落在區間的較低端。這就是我們對明年的思考方式。

Thanks for that. And then, along the lines of the becoming increasingly competitive, I guess when we strip away the year-over-year timing and sort of macro dynamics -- and one of the pushbacks we get consistently, and I'm sure you hear it, too, is the Hershey, despite all of the activity this year in the market, is still losing market share. I guess, at its core, why do you think this is and how should we expect share to progress as we exit this year into '27? Thanks so much.

謝謝你的說明。接著，沿著「競爭愈來愈激烈」這條線來問：如果我們撇除年對年時點因素以及某些總體動態——我們持續聽到的一個反饋（我相信你們也常聽到）是：即便今年市場上有這麼多活動，好時仍在流失市占。我想問的是，從根本來看，你認為原因是什麼？以及當我們從今年結束走向 2027 年時，市占應該如何演進？非常感謝。

You bet. Look, in the third quarter, we saw retail performance was generally in line with expectation. We had some momentum. Profitable share, I would tell you, is at the center of our strategy, and stronger innovation pipeline in the right spaces and more -- all those things that I talked about, effective media, broader merchandising and distribution, those are things that are winning.

當然。第三季我們看到零售端表現大致符合預期。我們有一些動能。我會說，「有獲利的市占」（profitable share）是我們策略的核心；更強的創新管線、在正確的領域投入，以及我剛提到的那些——有效的媒體投放、更廣的陳列與通路覆蓋——這些都是正在奏效、正在贏的事情。

When we look at this year, competitors have increased short term, I'd say, short-term news-driven activity. And it has been a innovation opportunity in the category. That's what makes this category so rich and vibrant. And I am confident the investments we've made in R&D. Innovation in our pipeline for '27 and '28 make us much more competitive. I've seen the innovation myself for '28. It looks fantastic. '27, like I said, it's 50% more than '26.

回頭看今年，競爭對手增加了我會稱之為短期、偏新聞事件驅動（news-driven）的活動。而在這個品類中，確實存在創新機會。這也是讓這個品類如此豐富且充滿活力的原因。我對我們在研發上的投資很有信心；我們 2027 與 2028 年的創新管線會讓我們更具競爭力。我自己也看過 2028 年的創新。看起來非常棒。而 2027 年，如我所說，會比 2026 年多 50%。

And that's how this category is competitive. It is fresh ideas, innovation, and I feel really good where we're going with this space. And it is in those spaces that matter most for The Hershey Company. It's in those areas like premium, sweets, functional, and better for you. So, we have a complete package going into '27.

而這就是這個品類競爭的方式：新點子與創新。我對我們在這個領域的方向感到非常樂觀。而且這些創新正是在好時公司最重要的領域。包括高端（premium）、甜食（sweets）、機能性（functional）以及更健康（better for you）等。因此，我們在邁向 2027 年時具備完整的組合。

Just to add, right, we had some release strength in the quarter and share performance did accelerate as we were in July and August until we ran into the tougher restore comparisons in September. That will continue through the balance of the year. And that is why we called that out and how we're thinking about Q4 performance relative to that category. But our performance will look good, continue to be strong on a two-year basis for confection.

我補充一下：本季我們有一些鋪貨（release）力道，而市占表現確實加速——在 7 月與 8 月時如此——直到 9 月遇到更具挑戰的補貨（restore）比較基期。這種情況會持續到今年剩餘期間。這也是我們為何特別點出這點，以及我們如何看待第四季相對於該品類的表現。不過，我們的表現若以兩年基礎來看，在糖果（confection）方面仍會看起來不錯，並持續強勁。

David Palmer, Evercore ISI.

David Palmer，Evercore ISI。

Thanks. Good morning. I'm sure you've heard from investors about Hershey's price gaps and how they might be too wide versus competitors and how that might be the key driver of what's going on here with market share amid a category that might also be hitting some walls after years of cumulative price increases. Could you comment on whether there might be a price value issue and what are your consumer insights showing you there? What are your retailer discussions telling you? And how does that inform your strategy from here on pricing?

謝謝。早安。我相信你們已經從投資人那裡聽到關於好時（Hershey）價格差距的看法，以及相較於競爭對手可能過於擴大；而在一個在多年累積漲價後、品類本身也可能開始碰到天花板的情況下，這可能是目前市占變化的關鍵驅動因素。你能否評論一下是否可能存在價格/價值（price value）方面的問題？你們的消費者洞察顯示了什麼？你們與零售商的討論又透露了什麼？這些又如何影響你們接下來的定價策略？

Yes. Thanks, David. Look, I think pricing remains rational. This is how we're looking at it. The category overall is healthy.

是的。謝謝你，David。你看，我認為定價仍然是理性的。我們是這樣看待的。整體品類是健康的。

I think that it's not a category that promotional activity really drive to the bottom, it's not one of those tools that you see in this category. Category growth has been driven largely by innovation and new ideas. We are, though, investing in consumer value through pack and price through targeted promotions. We're looking at areas like in convenience as you see a consumer that's under pressure to give more value and drive pricing through bespoke promotions versus overall price decreases.

我認為這不是一個促銷活動會把價格一路打到底的品類；在這個品類裡，你不太會看到那種工具。品類成長主要是由創新與新點子所驅動。不過，我們確實透過包裝與價格、以及精準促銷來投資消費者價值。我們在像便利通路這些領域著力，因為你會看到消費者承受壓力、需要更高的價值；我們會透過客製化（bespoke）的促銷來帶動價格，而不是全面降價。

It is much more about meeting the consumer where they're at with the right pack and price and then leveraging innovation to drive excitement in the category. It's not about rolling back prices because I think that if you look at the category, it is still rational and as we would expect.

更重要的是用合適的包裝與價格在消費者所在的位置滿足他們，並運用創新來帶動品類的興奮感。這不是要把價格往回調，因為我認為如果你看這個品類，它仍然是理性的，符合我們的預期。

One of the other things that I wanted to ask you about is the pace of innovation. You mentioned how you're lapping or your rises and that's tough. The other thing we hear and you can see it in the data that your competitors have been really active on innovation, both in and out of chocolate in the confectionery space. Could you talk about the 2027 pipeline? How does it look?

我還想問另一件事：創新的節奏。你提到你們正在面對基期（lapping）或先前漲價的比較，這很艱難。我們另外聽到、而且從數據也看得出來，你們的競爭對手在糖果零食領域（confectionery），不論是巧克力內外，都非常積極在做創新。你能談談 2027 年的產品管線嗎？看起來如何？

Maybe you can comment on whether your pace of innovation and effectiveness of innovation might be different this next year than it was this year?

也許你可以評論一下：你們明年的創新節奏與創新成效，是否會和今年不同？

Yes. Yes. Let me put a little color on that one. One thing I'll ask on the last question. that you had is we do see unit growth in unit -- the trajectory on our volume and unit growth improving.

是的。是的。我來補充一些背景。先回到你最後那個問題。我們確實看到單位成長（unit growth）——我們的銷量與單位成長的走勢正在改善。

So we're seeing that as expected. So from a pricing standpoint. Let's talk a little bit about innovation. We are innovating like we talked about, Hershey Creme bars is off to a really good start. It's the largest innovation in the category in the last four weeks, but that's not the only innovation we have for Q4. We have Hershey rolls, which is a chocolate covered wafer that's hitting the market is fantastic.

所以我們如預期地看到這個趨勢。就定價而言。我們來談談創新。我們正在如同先前所說地推動創新；Hershey Creme bars 開局非常好。它是過去四週內該品類最大的創新，但這不是我們第四季唯一的創新。我們還有 Hershey rolls——一款巧克力包覆威化產品——正在上市，表現非常出色。

We're also launching an opening price point on our icebreakers, gums, refreshment is growing, and we needed an entry price point. So we have a stick gum that we're launching this quarter. Hershey Truffles and Carmel, we have kit kat seasonal shaves. We've got a new dots Buffalo snack mix. We have Res'Coco-field pretzel and we have SkinnyPoparmer Jon-Garlic, all happening in quarter four.

我們也在 Ice Breakers 口香糖上推出一個入門價位點（opening price point）；清新口氣（refreshment）品類在成長，我們需要一個入門價位。所以本季我們會推出條狀口香糖（stick gum）。Hershey Truffles 和 Carmel，我們有 Kit Kat 季節性 shaves。我們有新的 Dots Buffalo 零食綜合包（snack mix）。我們有 Res'Coco-field 椒鹽脆餅（pretzel），以及 SkinnyPoparmer Jon-Garlic，這些都會在第四季推出。

Now, when we roll over in the '27, we have -- some of our biggest innovation is going to happen in Q1. We haven't talked about those innovations yet from a competitive standpoint. The pipeline is robust, and it is on our core business. It addresses opportunities for us in suites, in premium.

接著進入 2027 年時，我們——一些最大的創新會在第一季發生。我們從競爭角度還沒有談到那些創新。產品管線很強健，而且聚焦在我們的核心業務。它也針對我們在甜食（suites）與高端（premium）領域的機會。

We have more permissible salty coming out and we have some functional innovation coming. So we're targeting those spaces. So overall, it's up 50%. And I think that's important. It's a significant step up for us, and it will contribute three times more to the growth in '27.

我們會推出更多更「可放心享用」（more permissible）的鹹食產品，也會有一些機能性（functional）創新。所以我們鎖定這些領域。整體而言，規模提升了 50%。我認為這很重要。這對我們來說是顯著的加速，並且在 2027 年對成長的貢獻將是三倍。

Peter Gaba, Bank of America.

Peter Gaba，美國銀行（Bank of America）。

I wanted to go back to maybe expand on Andrew's question on organic sales into '27, a bit of a math exercise. But just thinking about if we take kind of the implied Q4 of kind of flattish organic looking at Q1 of '27. Obviously, we know the shorter Easter, that kind of being a bit of a headwind. We have the weak bit shifting. I just want to understand kind of the shape or the direction of travel? How we might think about organic sales for next year as we contemplate wherever we're going to land in the range, low end, high end, but just is it kind of more of a back half weighted year versus some of the headwinds on exit rate in Q1.

我想回到 Andrew 的問題，或許延伸一下關於 2027 年有機銷售（organic sales）的部分，算是一個數學推演。但如果我們把第四季隱含的有機成長大致持平，延伸去看 2027 年第一季。顯然我們知道復活節較短，這會帶來一些逆風。我們也有週次（week）移轉。我只是想了解大致的形狀或前進方向？當我們思考明年有機銷售時——不論最後落在區間的低端或高端——是否會更偏向下半年加權的一年，而不是在第一季的退出率（exit rate）受到一些逆風影響？

Sure. So fourth quarter, I'll start with the fourth quarter. It's still being impacted by the tougher laps on Restoro and the C-store softness that we talked about. The innovation has built later. It will build later within the quarter.

當然。所以第四季，我先從第四季開始。它仍然受到我們提到的 Restoro 較難的基期比較，以及便利店（C-store）走弱的影響。創新是在較後段才逐步建立。它會在季度內較後段才拉升。

Within Q4, you're going to see that carry into 2027. And then we are getting off to a strong start, as Kirk said, some of the biggest ideas that we have next year will come early in the calendar. There's a value playbook that we're executing against. So you can think of that as both innovation and price pack activities, and those are intended to address C-store and some of the broader consumer value needs, so I wouldn't interpret Q4 as a starting point for 2027.

在第四季之內，你會看到這個態勢延續到 2027 年。然後如 Kirk 所說，我們明年一些最大的點子會在日曆年初期就推出，因此我們會有一個強勁的開局。我們正在執行一套價值作戰手冊（value playbook）。所以你可以把它視為同時包含創新與價格/包裝（price pack）活動；這些是為了因應便利店通路以及更廣泛的消費者價值需求，因此我不會把第四季解讀為 2027 年的起點。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And Kirk, going back to your comments in the prepared remarks on '27 earnings, still looking for double digit. I think there's obviously some things that have changed relative to the outlook when you provided in March.

了解。好，這很有幫助。Kirk，回到你在事先準備的發言中提到 2027 年獲利仍然看雙位數成長。我想相較於你們在三月提供展望時，顯然有一些事情已經改變了。

So maybe you can just talk about the puts and takes for next year, what might push downside risk into those numbers given where you stand today?

所以也許你可以談談明年的利多與利空（puts and takes）：以你們目前的狀況來看，哪些因素可能把下行風險推進到那些數字裡？

Yes, you got it. I'll give -- no, I'll let you take it, Dave. Why don't you talk about the EPS growth.

是的，沒錯。我來——不，我讓你來回答，Dave。你來談談 EPS 成長吧。

So we don't see the initial EPS framework as completely off the table. But we would need to see the environment improve. And the areas we're focused on and looking for improvement are freight and logistics, more favorable commodity outlook. We're working on stronger returns from productivity in our demand-generating investments. And of course, there's always a healthier consumer.

所以我們不認為最初的 EPS 框架已經完全不可能。但我們需要看到環境改善。我們聚焦並期待改善的領域包括運輸與物流（freight and logistics）、更有利的大宗商品展望。我們也在努力讓我們在需求創造（demand-generating）投資上的生產力回報更強。當然，還有消費者狀況更健康。

On the flip side, there would be more risk if there's deterioration in either consumer demand or the cost environment. Kirk called out, we are focused on what we can control. So that means staying agile using data to direct investment towards the highest return opportunities for us.

反過來說，如果消費需求或成本環境任何一方出現惡化，風險就會更高。如 Kirk 所指出，我們專注在可控的事情上。這意味著保持敏捷，運用數據把投資導向對我們而言回報最高的機會。

Thomas Palmer, JPMorgan.

Thomas Palmer，摩根大通。

Sorry. I wanted to follow up on this last question from Peter just on the '27 puts and takes. To what extent does the outlook contemplate changes in marketing and/or pricing actions relative to the prior outlook. I know you just noted some potential flexibility there. Just wondering if there are any changes in that low double-digit outlook.

抱歉。我想就 Peter 剛才那個關於「27 年的利多利空（puts and takes）」的最後一題追問一下。相較於先前的展望，目前的展望在行銷和／或定價行動方面，納入了多大程度的變動？我知道你剛提到那裡可能有一些彈性。只是想確認一下，這個低雙位數的展望是否有任何變化。

Sure, there is no change to the '27 EPS framework other than reflecting the higher freight logistics and non-cocoa input costs. So we're going to continue to invest. Our posture remains the same invest in growth levers, marketing, innovation and merchandising. And we're doing that to support '27 but also to prep for and support 2028. We'll continue to leverage as you think about EPS, continuous improvement, RGM, tech-enabled productivity levers, and there's a few big ones and maybe I'll call out as we think about where we see big opportunity next year.

當然，『27 年 EPS 架構』沒有任何改變，除了反映更高的運輸物流以及非可可原料投入成本。因此我們會持續投資。我們的立場維持不變：投資於成長槓桿、行銷、創新與陳列推廣（merchandising）。我們這麼做是為了支撐『27 年，同時也為 2028 年做準備並提供支持。就 EPS 而言，我們會持續透過持續改善、RGM（營收成長管理）、科技賦能的生產力槓桿來提升槓桿效益；其中有幾個大的項目，或許我可以點出幾個我們認為明年有很大機會的領域。

So, one is digitization and factory automation. That's underway. There's a lot of white space we're going after over the next couple of years to drive manufacturing efficiencies. decision intelligence, which is something that's broadly being rolled out, enabling things like working capital and waste reduction. And then logistics optimization, which will include lane and customer order management efficiencies. And so, that's -- work that's underway that picks up next year and will carry forward into '28.

其中之一是數位化與工廠自動化。這已在進行中。未來幾年我們會在許多尚未開發的空白領域（white space）發力，以提升製造效率。另外是決策智慧（decision intelligence），這項能力正在更廣泛地推行，可用於提升如營運資金與減少浪費等成效。再來是物流最佳化，將包含運輸路線（lane）以及客戶訂單管理效率的提升。因此，這些工作已在進行中，明年會加速，並延續到『28 年。

Great. I also wanted to ask on Halloween. If I recall a year ago, it was noted as being a bit soft and I think the calendar was part of it. And so there was this expectation for more of a rebound this year in part from the Saturday timing, prepared remarks discussed more flat year over year. Just to clarify, how much is simply a reflection of the current macro environment, or are there execution items we should be thinking about this year that maybe could be addressed next year?

了解。我也想問一下萬聖節的情況。如果我沒記錯，一年前曾提到表現有點疲弱，我想行事曆因素是其中一部分。因此原本預期今年會因為週六的時間點而有較多反彈，但在事先準備的發言中提到年對年更偏向持平。想請你澄清一下：這有多少只是反映目前的總體環境？或者今年是否有一些執行面的事項需要我們留意、也許明年可以改善？

Yes. Let me take that one. Look, if you look at the Saturday Halloween, about 35% of the seasonal sales happened this week. So that's the impact. So the biggest selling days are still ahead of us.

好的，這題我來回答。你看週六的萬聖節，大約 35% 的季節性銷售發生在本週。這就是影響所在。因此，最重要的銷售日還在後面。

The category is on track in that sense, in a compressed season, meaning the Labor Day was late and then you have a Saturday Halloween. So that's how that shapes up. Hershey's share is up in most classes of trade and the execution is out there.

就這個意義而言，該品類的表現仍在軌道上，只是旺季被壓縮了，因為勞動節較晚，接著又遇到週六的萬聖節。所以整體節奏就是這樣形成的。好時（Hershey）在多數通路類型的市占都在提升，執行也已到位。

If you look at kind of the learnings that we had last year, the shipments are up. So the buy to start with was up and we shipped it. The displays are in the marketplace, and we've got great partnerships with our customers. that these final days are important and these big trick-or-treat packs, they are to our benefit. We have a share advantage in the larger packs, and that's what consumers are looking for the last few days.

如果回顧我們去年得到的經驗，出貨量是增加的。也就是說，一開始的採購量（buy）就提高了，而我們也把貨出出去了。陳列已在市場上，我們也與客戶建立了很好的合作夥伴關係。最後這幾天很重要，而這些大型的 trick-or-treat 綜合包對我們有利。我們在大包裝上有市占優勢，而這正是消費者在最後幾天想要的。

Now, when we look at the consumer insights, participation intent is in line with last year. Now we need consumers to show up. We need them, the last few days are really critical. We're starting to see it. So we're keeping an eye on these last few days.

再看消費者洞察，參與意願與去年一致。現在我們需要消費者真的出來購買。最後這幾天確實非常關鍵。我們開始看到一些跡象。所以我們會密切關注最後這幾天的表現。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

Robert Moskow，TD Cowen。

I was hoping to maybe drill down a little bit on gross margin. There's a change in the guidance that implies I think an exit rate of about a 39% gross margin in fourth quarter. And then for 2027, there has to be a substantial step up. And so I want to know like, is this exit rate, does it -- is it informative of what to think about 2027 at all because I think you'd have to be up like over 200 basis points to hit these EPS numbers. And then secondly, the volume is down quite a bit.

我想更深入問一下毛利率。指引的變動暗示第四季的期末水準（exit rate）大約是 39% 的毛利率。而到了 2027 年，毛利率必須大幅上升。所以我想了解：這個期末水準對於 2027 年的判斷是否有任何參考性？因為我認為要達到這些 EPS 數字，毛利率可能得提高超過 200 個基點。第二點是，銷量下滑相當多。

And there must be some impact from volume deleveraging on the business. I've heard that your capacity is flexible enough to adapt to that. So is that true? Is that why these two things can happen at the same time?

而銷量去槓桿（volume deleveraging）應該會對業務造成一些影響。我聽說你們的產能彈性足以因應這種情況。這是真的嗎？這是否就是為什麼這兩件事可以同時發生？

Yes, I'll start with the exit rate. The big difference between the fourth quarter and what we're going to see next year is the timing of Coco hedges. So you can expect things to look different next year as the different hedges roll through, and that's part of the algorithm. On the volume deleverage, yes, to an extent, there is an impact but we expect that volume will get better, we're seeing it get better. And that's also why the productivity initiatives are so important, and there's low-hanging fruit there.

是的，我先談期末水準。第四季與我們明年將看到的情況之間，最大的差異在於可可避險（cocoa hedges）的時間點。因此，隨著不同避險部位逐步反映，你可以預期明年的表現會有所不同，這也是我們演算法（algorithm）的一部分。至於銷量去槓桿，是的，在某種程度上確實有影響，但我們預期銷量會改善，我們也正在看到改善。這也是為什麼生產力計畫如此重要，而且那裡有一些容易摘取的果實（low-hanging fruit）。

Okay. And Dave, can you be more specific about seeing it get better? Because the volume is down 10% in the quarter. Where are you seeing it get better? Is it the retail tracking is less bad as you exit third quarter?

好的。Dave，你能更具體說明你們看到「正在改善」是指什麼嗎？因為本季銷量下滑了 10%。你們在哪裡看到改善？是指第三季末到期時，零售追蹤數據的下滑幅度變小了嗎？

Yes. I think we're going from high double-digit -- high teens pricing in Q3 to single-digit pricing in Q4 and we're investing in our brands. So it's not just going to be elasticity. It's our job to drive demand. And where we have our programming and our investment focus, we're seeing the turn and improvement in volume trends.

是的。我認為我們正從第三季的高雙位數——接近高十幾％的定價，走向第四季的個位數定價，同時我們也在投資品牌。所以不會只靠需求彈性（elasticity）。推動需求是我們的工作。而在我們的活動規劃與投資重點所及之處，我們看到銷量趨勢正在轉向並改善。

Yeah. When we look at specific brands like Hershey, KitKat, Cadburys, our Kisses line, we see meaningful unit trend improvement. So we'll see that, that trend improvement will continue in Q4. It will continue in Q1 and Q2 of next year as well. So we'll be on a trend of volume and unit improvement.

是的。當我們看特定品牌，例如 Hershey、KitKat、Cadburys，以及我們的 Kisses 產品線，我們看到單位數量（unit）趨勢有顯著改善。因此我們會看到這個改善趨勢在第四季延續，也會在明年第一季與第二季延續。所以我們將處於銷量與單位數量持續改善的趨勢上。

It's not going to be exactly linear but it is -- we're confident that we're going to see continuous progress built on the programming and execution that we have. And look, it is our job to stimulate demand here. And we have got those plans to do that. So we'll see continuous improvement on volume and unit growth.

這不會完全是線性的，但我們有信心，基於我們既有的活動規劃與執行力，會看到持續進展。而且你看，刺激需求是我們在這裡的責任。我們已經有相應的計畫來做到這點。因此我們會在銷量與單位成長上看到持續改善。

And I'll just add, we'll provide more color on volume cadence in February's full year outlook. But we believe in top-line growth even if volumes don't get fully back to positive.

我再補充一下，我們會在二月發布全年展望時，提供更多關於銷量節奏（cadence）的細節。但我們相信營收端（top-line）仍能成長，即使銷量未能完全回到正成長。

Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

Chris Carey，富國銀行證券。

I'd like to ask -- I wanted to ask first about cocoa. You gave some context on supply and demand. Obviously, we're looking at more favorable position for next year. Just what are you seeing in the global crops currently as we head into next year, I'm conscious we've seen a pickup in the forward curves as we kind of look out to 2028, but supply and demand feels in your favor. So I wanted to get a bit more context on what you're seeing and how you're going to be approaching hedging over the next 12 months or so?

我想問——我先想問可可。你們提供了一些供需面的背景。顯然，我們看到明年的部位更有利。想請教你們目前看到的全球作物情況如何、在邁向明年之際的觀察是什麼？我也注意到，當我們往 2028 年看時，遠期曲線似乎有所上升，但供需看起來仍對你們有利。所以我想多了解一些你們看到的情況，以及你們未來約 12 個月左右將如何進行避險操作？

And then I have a follow-up on the Snacks business.

接著我還有一個關於零食業務的追問。

We're continuing to see El Niño speculation impact market prices. We don't expect cocoa to remain at current levels long term. And so let me just talk about what we're seeing and how we're thinking about it. So we're coming off of a historical surplus of 500,000 to 600,000 metric tons. Inventories are healthier.

我們持續看到聖嬰現象（El Niño）的揣測影響市場價格。我們不預期可可價格會在長期維持在目前水準。所以我先談談我們看到的情況，以及我們如何思考。我們正從歷史性的50萬到60萬公噸供給過剩中走出來。庫存水位更健康。

Supply is more diversified, and we're seeing production increase in new origins. We see satellite data in monitoring. It shows that cocoa acreage is continuing to rise in a number of regions in response to the high prices.

供應來源更加多元，我們也看到新產地的產量在增加。我們透過衛星數據進行監測。數據顯示，因應高價格，許多地區的可可種植面積仍在持續上升。

And you're seeing examples of that in Ecuador, for example, biggest export output on record in September. The industry is more agile. And so we believe the market is already pricing in a bigger global decline than last cycle. And we have yet to see the evidence really to support that. So we're remaining disciplined in our approach as far as hedging, and we're leveraging the full tool kit, including flexible hedging instruments.

例如你可以在厄瓜多看到這樣的例子：9月出口量創下歷史新高。整個產業更具敏捷性。因此我們認為，市場目前已經把比上一輪週期更大的全球減產幅度反映在價格中。但我們尚未看到足夠的證據真正支持這一點。所以在避險策略上我們仍維持紀律，並運用完整工具箱，包括更具彈性的避險工具。

Okay. Great. On the snack side of the business, the supply recovery clearly just taking a bit longer than expected. Can you just give us a bit of context on why it's taking a bit longer and confidence levels that you can get back to where you want to be in the near term and then just do you think that supply issues are starting to impact any of the consumption that we see, which is still obviously quite strong but are you seeing any supply out of stocks beginning to hit the business? And any context on how you would see that going forward?

好的，很好。在零食業務方面，供應復甦顯然比預期多花了一點時間。你能否提供一些背景，說明為什麼會比較久，以及你們對於短期內回到目標水準的信心程度？另外，你是否認為供應問題開始影響到我們看到的消費（目前顯然仍相當強勁），你們是否看到任何因缺貨而開始衝擊業務的情況？以及你對未來走勢的看法？

Yes. I would tell you that our overall, our salty business can contribute more to the top line and the bottom line, and we'll do so in '27. Our service levels are improving. They're not exactly where we want them to be, but we've made the investments to catch up. So demand is definitely outstripping supply, but we are catching up, and we've made those investments. We have manufacturing lines coming online in the first half of next year.

是的。我會告訴你，我們整體的鹹食業務能對營收與獲利做出更大貢獻，而且會在'27年做到。我們的服務水準正在改善。雖然還沒完全達到我們想要的水準，但我們已經做了追趕所需的投資。所以需求確實仍高於供給，但我們正在追上，而且已完成那些投資。我們有製造產線將在明年上半年陸續投產。

We've also invested in automation because a lot of the demand is showing up in single-serve and multipack and that just drives a little level of complexity that we needed to invest in automation so that we can deliver those packs that consumers want. I'm confident that we will get there. And some -- a lot of this is behind us, but there's still this capacity coming online that will give us good growth in '27 on our salty business and a more efficient way to get to market.

我們也投資自動化，因為許多需求出現在單份包與多入組合包，這會帶來一些複雜度；我們需要投資自動化，才能交付消費者想要的包裝形式。我有信心我們會達成目標。其中很多問題已經在我們身後，但仍有部分產能即將上線，這將讓我們的鹹食業務在'27年有良好的成長，並以更有效率的方式把產品推向市場。

I'll add, service improves, if you just think about this from a bottom line standpoint as well. We expect to get more efficient use of freight logistics in the coming months. The higher rates will remain a headwind but there's a number of things we're doing there. Kirk mentioned the fill rate improvement. There's a lot of work happening around shipping fall to reduce our reliance on spot rate which is important in salty because there has a greater spot rate exposure there.

我補充一下，服務水準改善，若從獲利端來看也有幫助。我們預期未來幾個月能更有效率地運用貨運物流。較高的運價仍會是逆風，但我們正在做很多事情來因應。Kirk提到的補貨率（fill rate）改善就是其中之一。我們也在運輸方面做了很多工作，以降低對即期運價（spot rate）的依賴；這對鹹食特別重要，因為該業務對即期運價的曝險更高。

And then I talked about it, but there's work going on around optimizing lanes and customer orders. and that will partly offset the bottom line, Again, the inflation impacts. I'll say you asked about constraints in terms of the impact on the full year. And I would say they have pulled growth down. but we are confident we're going to get those back in 2027 as Kirk said.

另外我也提過，我們正在進行運輸路線（lanes）與客戶訂單的最佳化。這將在一定程度上抵銷獲利端的影響，也就是通膨帶來的影響。你問到限制因素對全年影響的問題。我會說這些限制確實拉低了成長。但如Kirk所說，我們有信心在2027年把這些補回來。

Leah Jordan, Goldman Sachs.

Leah Jordan，高盛。

So Dave and earlier question, highlighted potentially stronger productivity as a lever that could help offset some of the inflationary headwinds that have crept up this year as we look ahead to next year. So Justin, if you could provide an update on what opportunities you still see for productivity, what you would highlight like efforts from this year that can wrap around and benefit next year. And then even somewhat related how are you thinking about mitigation tools outside of hedging for cocoa at this point? Like where are we on that journey as well?

所以Dave，先前的問題提到，展望明年時，可能更強的生產力可作為一個槓桿，來幫助抵銷今年逐漸升高的一些通膨逆風。所以Justin，你能否更新一下你仍看到哪些生產力機會？以及你會特別點出今年哪些努力可以延續並在明年帶來效益？另外也有點相關的是，目前對於可可，除了避險之外，你們如何看待其他緩解工具？例如在這條路徑上我們目前走到哪裡了？

Sure. So we have a strong pipeline. We've got good visibility into productivity and operational levers. Just stepping back, we continue to stay focused on achieving mid-40% margin recovery over the long term. And so all the levers we've used historically, mix, RGM, productivity, we see operational improvement based on some of the things that we learned this year.

當然。我們有很強的專案管線。我們對生產力與營運槓桿有很好的能見度。退一步看，我們仍專注於長期達成約中40%毛利率的回升。因此，我們過去使用的所有槓桿——產品組合、RGM（營收成長管理）、生產力——我們都看到基於今年學到的一些經驗而帶來的營運改善。

that will all contribute. The roadmap is, I would say, multifaceted, but technology is going to play a significant role. So I mentioned some of those technology initiatives already earlier, the digitization of the factory, decision intelligence, logistics optimization, and then I'd just say as far as Coco, it's too early to comment on 2028.

這些都會有所貢獻。我會說路線圖是多面向的，但科技將扮演重要角色。所以我先前已提到一些科技計畫：工廠數位化、決策智慧、物流最佳化；另外就可可而言，現在談2028年還太早。

There's lots of time between now and then. But our strategies remain the same, and we continue using flexible hedging structures to capture favorable market moves. We have sourcing flexibility. We built a new chocolate making facility, and we can go straight to the origin as well when appropriate to capture value. So we've got a lot of levers.

距離現在到那時還有很多時間。但我們的策略不變，並持續使用彈性的避險架構來掌握有利的市場走勢。我們在採購上也具備彈性。我們新建了一座巧克力製造設施，並且在適當時也能直接到產地端採購以取得價值。所以我們有很多槓桿可以運用。

Okay. That's helpful. And then for my second question, just on brand investments, they're expected to step up here. again in the fourth quarter. Should we think of that being more of the same of what you highlighted for 3Q, or any updates to the brands and channels you're targeting? Just curious if there's any change in the approach as the consumer has been soft here recently?

好的，很有幫助。那第二個問題是關於品牌投資，你們預期在這裡會加大，在第四季也會再提高。我們是否應該把它視為你在3Q提到的同樣作法延續，還是你們鎖定的品牌與通路有任何更新？只是好奇，因為近期消費者表現偏疲弱，你們在做法上是否有任何改變？

Yes. We're going to continue to invest. The full-year brand investment is going to be around 10%. We'll carry forward some of the investment from Q3. We have new campaigns coming out -- that are coming out right now, Cadbury, fulfill, payday or all getting new campaigns with strength and support as well, and those are ramping as we speak.

是的。我們會持續投資。全年品牌投資大約會在10%左右。我們會延續Q3的一部分投資。我們也有新的行銷活動即將推出——目前正陸續上線，Cadbury、Fulfill、Payday等都會推出新活動，並且有力道與資源支持，這些也正在加速推進中。

Alexia Howard, Bernstein.

Alexia Howard，Bernstein。

Can I just ask about the prepared remarks comments about improving unit volumes as price growth flows on nonseasonal items. Can you put any color around that on -- we've seen it move from down double digits or down high single digits -- a mid-single-digit decline as that price growth has started to slow. Any commentary on that?

我想問一下，你們在事先準備的講稿中提到，隨著非季節性品項的價格成長逐步反映，單位銷量正在改善。你能否補充一些細節——我們看到它從雙位數下滑或高個位數下滑，隨著價格成長開始放緩，變成中個位數下滑。對此有什麼評論嗎？

Yes. We are seeing that improvement as pricing moderates. We're seeing that improvement. We're seeing that improvement, specifically on some of our big brands, Hershey, KitKat, Cadbury, our Kiss lineup that continues to improve, and we'll continue to see that improvement throughout next year. And some of that is built into some of the programming. So the path isn't going to be exactly linear but it is -- we're confident that the improvement will continue throughout '27. Anything to add --

是的。隨著定價趨於溫和，我們確實看到改善。我們看到這樣的改善。我們看到改善，特別是在一些主要品牌上：Hershey、KitKat、Cadbury，以及我們的Kiss產品線也持續改善；而且我們預期明年全年都會持續看到改善。其中一部分也已納入一些規劃與方案之中。因此路徑不會完全線性，但我們——有信心改善會在'27年持續。還有要補充的嗎——

Yes, in Q4 specifically, that's partly offset by tough comparisons. And so we talked about REO as being one of those.

是的，特別是在第四季，這部分會被艱難的比較基期所部分抵銷。因此我們提到 REO 是其中之一。

Yes. In Q3, the operation in the net price realization was very modest. It only began late in the quarter, and you're going to see that continue into Q4, while the programming that we put in place is also ramping up. So we'll give you an update as we get through this quarter, and we start to see more of that. But we did see the gun in the trend, and that's the most important data point that we wanted to provide you.

是的。在第三季，淨售價實現（net price realization）方面的動作非常有限。它直到季末才開始，而你們會看到這種情況延續到第四季，同時我們已經導入的相關方案也正在加速推進。所以等我們度過本季、開始看到更多成效時，我們會再向各位更新。但我們確實看到趨勢出現轉折，這是我們最想提供給各位的關鍵數據點。

And then can I just follow up on where are you at on advertising as a percent of sales? And where do you want to be over time? Is there further investment that will need to kick in next year?

那我可以再追問一下，目前廣告費用占銷售額的比例大概在哪裡？長期來看你們希望落在什麼水準？明年是否還需要再加大投資？

Yes. We're going to continue to invest behind brands, behind the innovation and programming that we have. We talked about an uptick in some of that programming and innovation next year. And so we're going to carry forward the investments against those. The other thing we're working on, and you're seeing it come through or we're seeing it come through in our sort of net performance and impact from brand investment is really the efficiency.

是的。我們會持續在品牌、創新以及我們的各項方案上加碼投資。我們也談到明年在部分方案與創新上會有提升。因此我們會延續並推進這些投資。另外我們也在做的一件事，而且你們也能看到、或我們在品牌投資帶來的整體淨表現與影響中看到的，就是效率的提升。

So Kirk mentioned an 8% improvement in ROI, we have a much more dynamic, more real-time market mix model that we're using to really leverage and stay agile as we're seeing what's working and where we have opportunities to drive efficiency, so we'll keep that moving forward into next year.

所以 Kirk 提到 ROI 提升了 8%，我們正在使用一個更動態、更即時的市場組合模型（market mix model），以便在看到哪些有效、以及在哪些地方有機會提升效率時，能真正發揮槓桿並保持敏捷；因此我們會把這項工作延續到明年。

Yes. I would just say our overall posture is to be incredibly competitive around driving awareness for our brands, effective media and marketing spend on top of our investment in R&D and innovation. I think those two key areas are important for us to drive demand and we're focused on doing that. And we like what we're seeing in our efficiency and the brand building that we're doing. So we'll continue to invest in those spaces at the levels that we're at.

是的。我只想說，我們整體的策略立場是：在提升品牌知名度方面保持極強的競爭力，並在我們對研發與創新的投資之上，投入有效的媒體與行銷費用。我認為這兩個關鍵領域對我們推動需求非常重要，而我們也專注在做到這點。而且我們對目前看到的效率提升與品牌建設成果感到滿意。所以我們會在目前的投入水準上，持續投資這些領域。

Peter Grom, UBS.

UBS 的 Peter Grom。

You touched on some -- you touched on some of the category weakness in September and how that has persisted into October. Can you unpack a bit more around what you're seeing from a channel and category perspective? Has it gotten worse sequentially in October? Or is it broadly similar to what you saw in September? And I guess just as we think about the guidance, what are you embedding from a category perspective through the balance of the year?

你提到 9 月某些品類走弱，而且這種情況延續到 10 月。你能否從通路與品類的角度再多拆解一下你們看到的狀況？10 月相較前期有更糟嗎？還是大致與 9 月相近？另外，從指引來看，你們在今年剩餘期間對品類表現的假設是什麼？

Yes. A couple of things kind of on channel performance. I think the biggest outlier was C-stores. we saw a minus five for the category in C stores, I'm sorry, move voice now. We saw that continue into October. So that concern is still on C-stores. But when you look at everywhere else. So every day, candy, men's and gum, the category is a plus 3.7% in Q3.

是的。關於通路表現有幾點。我認為最大的異常值是便利商店（C-stores）。我們看到便利商店通路的品類下滑 5%，抱歉，我現在換個說法。我們看到這種情況延續到 10 月。所以便利商店仍然是我們關注的重點。但如果看其他通路，也就是日常糖果、男性品類與口香糖，該品類在第三季成長 3.7%。

Do you want me take that?

要我來回答嗎？

Yes.

好。

Yes. So -- if you just -- let me step back and then I'll talk a little bit more about the specific question. So we are seeing the consumer more cautious on inflation gas price -- because of gas prices and interest rates are strained on households. They are making more deliberate choices across channels, more in mass, more in e-com, more in club. C-store has been the challenge. Categories down 5% in September. We have seen that continue into October.

是的。所以——如果你們允許我先退一步，然後再更具體回答這個問題。我們確實看到消費者因通膨、油價——主要是油價，以及利率對家庭造成壓力，而變得更謹慎。他們在各通路做出更審慎的選擇，更多轉向量販（mass）、電商（e-com）與會員制賣場（club）。便利商店一直是挑戰所在。9 月品類下滑 5%。我們看到這種情況延續到 10 月。

And then as Kirk said, everywhere else, our business is actually up 3.7% in Q3. So when we do step back, we see it at more of a channel and trip problem, not as much a category issue. And so we're focused on value levers. innovation, price pack architecture, surgical promotion, we can talk more about that, Kirk can probably add some color on what we're doing there.

然後如 Kirk 所說，在其他所有通路，我們的業務在第三季其實成長了 3.7%。所以當我們退一步看，我們認為這更像是通路與購物行程（trip）層面的問題，而不完全是品類問題。因此我們聚焦在價值槓桿上：創新、價格/包裝架構（price pack architecture）、精準促銷（surgical promotion）。我們可以再多談一些，Kirk 也許可以補充我們在這方面的作法。

No, I mean, I really think the category is in a decent place with all these consumer headwinds. Obviously, we expected the C-store business to soften a little bit with gas prices. But we still see a robust category. It's resilient across the rest of the category -- I mean, the rest of the channel. So we feel good about where we're at. That informs kind of where we're going and how we feel about 2027 as well.

不，我的意思是，在消費者面臨這些逆風的情況下，我認為品類整體仍處在不錯的位置。顯然，隨著油價變動，我們原本就預期便利商店業務會稍微走弱。但我們仍看到品類表現強勁。在其他通路——我是說，在通路的其他部分——它都很有韌性。所以我們對目前的位置感到不錯。這也影響我們對未來走向以及對 2027 年的看法。

Awesome. And then, Dave, maybe just a quick clarification. So just on the '27 commentary, just around the growth or EPS growth, excluding the tariff refund. Just to be clear, we should be taking that $0.25 out of the base for '26 and then growing double digits from there. Is that the right way to think about it.

太好了。然後 Dave，可能再快速釐清一下。關於你們對 2027 年的評論，談的是成長或 EPS 成長、且排除關稅退稅（tariff refund）。為了確認，我們應該把 2026 年基期中的 0.25 美元先扣掉，然後從那個基礎再做雙位數成長。這樣理解對嗎？

That's right.

沒錯。

Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

Piper Sandler 的 Michael Lavery。

I know a couple of questions I touched on this already, but I want to come back to just your thoughts on next year and maybe just make sure I understand when you say that the growing pressure could restrain growth relative to your March expectations. Is that pointing more just kind of to the low end of where you landed originally or really just trying to flag downside risk actually below that. Can you just maybe be specific about how to think about that wording?

我知道前面有幾個問題已經碰到這點，但我想再回到你們對明年的看法，並確認我理解正確：當你說不斷增加的壓力可能會使成長相較你們 3 月的預期受到抑制時，這比較像是指向你們原先落點區間的低端，還是其實是在提示可能存在低於該區間的下行風險？你能否更具體說明該措辭應如何解讀？

Yes. So let me take the top line, and I'll let Dave talk about EPS growth in the bottom line. From a top-line standpoint, we're sticking with the range that we guided to. if the consumer pressure remains or gets worse, then it's going to be in the lower part of the range. I think that's a practical approach to how we're seeing it.

是的。我先談營收端（top line），然後讓 Dave 談 EPS 成長等獲利端（bottom line）。就營收端而言，我們維持先前給出的指引區間。如果消費者壓力維持不變或變得更糟，那結果就會落在區間的較低端。我認為這是基於我們目前觀察所採取的務實作法。

We're still seeing a resilient category. We're still seeing consistency. I like the growth drivers in innovation, et cetera. But if the pressures remain and some channels are still under a high level of pressure, then it's going to be in the lower part of the range. And I'll let Dave talk about how that impacts the bottom line and EPS.

我們仍看到品類具韌性。我們仍看到一致性。我也看好創新等帶來的成長動能。但如果壓力持續存在，且某些通路仍承受高度壓力，那結果就會落在區間的較低端。接著我讓 Dave 說明這對獲利端與 EPS 的影響。

Yes. If today's conditions remain, we could be shy of the original range or framework. We're going to continue to invest in the business for the long term. So we're going to invest behind growth in the things that we talked about earlier.

是的。如果今天的狀況維持不變，我們可能會略低於原先的區間或框架。我們會持續為長期而投資這項業務。因此我們會在先前提到的那些成長項目上持續投入。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just back to your comment earlier, committed to mid-40s margin recovery over the long term. Any sense of how we should think about timing for that? And when you say long term, is it likely further out, or is that within reach? What's the right way to frame just how that trajectory might unfold?

好的，這很有幫助。另外回到你先前的評論：長期而言，你們承諾毛利率回升到 40% 中段（mid-40s）。對於達成時點有沒有任何概念，應該如何看待？你說的「長期」是指可能更久以後，還是其實在可達範圍內？要如何正確框架這條軌跡可能會如何展開？

Yes. So just starting in '27, we do expect meaningful margin improvement in 2027. That long-term ambition is '28 forward. And as I said, we have a rich productivity pipeline that we're going to continue to build and leverage to work towards that and continuous improvement in all those other levers that we typically leverage will be a part of that algorithm. What might affect the timing or the new pieces.

是的。因此，從 2027 年開始，我們確實預期 2027 年會有顯著的利潤率改善。那個長期目標是以 2028 年及之後為主。而且如我所說，我們有一條豐富的生產力管線，我們會持續建置並加以運用，朝那個方向努力；同時，我們通常會運用的其他各項槓桿也會持續改善，並成為該演算法的一部分。至於哪些因素可能影響時程或新增的變數。

So logistics and freight and some of the other cost inflation, if that turns and improves sooner, you'll see some margin move sooner. If it takes longer, it will take a little bit longer for us to get there.

所以物流與運輸費，以及其他一些成本通膨，如果這些因素更早反轉並改善，你會更早看到利潤率的變動。如果需要更久，我們達成目標的時間也會稍微拉長。

Nik Modi, RBC Capital Markets.

Nik Modi，RBC 資本市場。

Kirk, I wanted to kind of revisit some comments you made, I think, last quarter about distribution opportunities outside of the traditional channels, so maybe you can give us an update on that. And could this be big enough to kind of help you kind of muscle through some of this downturn as we go into 2027.

Kirk，我想回頭再談一下你上季提到的一些評論：關於在傳統通路之外的配銷機會，所以也許你可以給我們一個最新進展。另外，當我們邁向 2027 年、面對這段下行期時，這是否可能大到足以幫助你們挺過去？

Yes. We talked about away from home being an opportunity, and that continues to be an opportunity. We're doubling down in that space. Yes, and it's really across both our Salty and our confection business. So we're seeing good growth.

是的。我們談到「離家消費」（away from home）是一個機會，而它仍然是一個機會。我們正在加碼投入這個領域。是的，而且這涵蓋我們的鹹食（Salty）與糖果（confection）兩大業務。因此我們看到不錯的成長。

We'll continue to see growth. That will be a tailwind for us, including specialty retail away from home. Yes, we're creating new partnerships for distribution. It's an exciting space. We have a lot of passion for this. We know it's a great place for growth, but we importantly know it's really a good place for us to build brands. So expect more from us. That will be a tailwind going into '27.

我們也會持續看到成長。這將成為我們的順風因素，包括離家消費的專業零售通路。是的，我們正在建立新的配銷合作夥伴關係。這是一個令人振奮的領域。我們對此充滿熱情。我們知道這是很好的成長場域，但更重要的是，我們也知道這對我們打造品牌非常有利。所以請期待我們有更多動作。這將在邁向 2027 年時成為順風。

And I'll say we're continuing to strengthen our already strong partnerships in the core channels as well. So we're focused on that as well.

我也想補充，我們同時也在持續強化核心通路中既有且已經很強的合作夥伴關係。所以我們也同樣聚焦在這一點。

Great. And then just kind of a final one for me is just on agentic commerce. I mean it just seems like it's really adoption is getting really out of traction is picking up pretty quickly. And just curious, like how Hershey inducted an agentic-commerce like audit in terms of how your brands show up across all these different platforms? Any thoughts on that would be interesting.

很好。我最後一個問題是關於代理式商務（agentic commerce）。看起來它的採用正在快速升溫、動能也很快起來。我想了解的是，好時（Hershey）如何在代理式商務方面做稽核（audit），以確保你們的品牌在各種不同平台上的呈現方式？任何想法都很有意思。

Absolutely. Yes. I mean this is a really important space understanding. We spent a lot of time with some of our partners to understand how this is showing up, how our brands show up, how we leverage this customers like Target, Amazon, Walmart, we're working directly with them. This is an important space for us and something that I think we're on the front foot with.

當然。是的，我的意思是，這是一個非常重要、需要理解的領域。我們花了很多時間與一些合作夥伴一起了解它如何呈現、我們的品牌如何呈現，以及我們如何運用它；像 Target、Amazon、Walmart 這些客戶，我們都直接與他們合作。這對我們很重要，我認為我們在這方面是走在前面的。

Scott Marks, Jefferies.

Scott Marks，Jefferies。

I have two questions that I wanted to touch on the first you spoke about the Hershey movie a little bit in your prepared remarks talking about merchandising plans above initial expectations. Could you maybe help us understand what's the magnitude of uplift we should be expecting from that? And whether that's incremental to the business? Or does it replace otherwise maybe nonseasonal or holiday-type merchandising activity in stores?

我有兩個問題。第一個是，你在事先準備的發言中稍微提到《好時》電影，並談到陳列（merchandising）計畫高於最初預期。你能否幫我們理解，我們應該預期的拉抬幅度大概有多大？以及這是否是對業務的增量貢獻？還是它會取代門店中原本可能進行的非季節性或節慶類陳列活動？

Yes. We're really excited about this movie and the story that's going to tell. I would look at -- our Hershey brand right now is having an exceptional year. And it started with how we opened up the year with the Olympics and then how we celebrated the 250-year anniversary. Now at the end of the year, we're going to celebrate the movie.

是的。我們對這部電影以及它將講述的故事感到非常興奮。我會這樣看——我們的 Hershey 品牌今年表現非常出色。而這是從年初開始的：我們藉由奧運開啟年度，接著又慶祝了 250 週年。現在在年底，我們將慶祝這部電影。

It comes out the day before Thanksgiving. And we've been supportive -- retailers really gotten behind this, and it's just an exciting American story. that's relevant for our time. So we've seen a lot of support, and that's going to show up in store with inventory and displays and a connection back to the movie.

它在感恩節前一天上映。我們一直在支持——零售商也非常力挺這件事，這是一個令人振奮的美國故事。而且與我們這個時代息息相關。因此我們看到很多支持，這會在店內以庫存與陳列呈現，並與電影形成連結。

So that you'll see that, that will be an uplift. That will be a tailwind for the portfolio and especially Hershey, which has already had a terrific year, but we like the momentum that will build going into 2027.

所以你會看到這些，這將帶來拉抬。這會成為整體產品組合的順風，特別是 Hershey；它今年已經表現非常好，但我們喜歡這股動能，並將延續到邁向 2027 年。

And then just one last point of clarification from me. In the prepared remarks, you also noted a little bit of the shipment timing headwind in North America confectionery, I believe you've got a little bit of benefit in Q3, can you just remind us magnitude of benefit for Q2, what the headwind was in Q3? And as we sit here today, is there anything we should keep in mind as it relates to Q4 aside from the extra shipping day?

我這邊最後再釐清一點。在事先準備的發言中，你也提到北美糖果業務出貨時點帶來一些逆風；我記得你們在第三季有一些好處。你能否提醒我們第二季的好處幅度是多少、第三季的逆風是多少？以及以今天的情況來看，除了多一個出貨日之外，第四季還有什麼我們需要留意的嗎？

Yes, I'll take that one. So, for confectionery, that earlier ship of summer programs in Q2 was largely offset by that strong seasonal sell-in that we saw in Q3. So, for Q4, I would say that you think that the timing dynamics are largely a wash against that additional shipping day as well as we will be lapping some lower levels of retailer inventories that occurred in Q4 of '25. So, I would say it's largely a wash on the shipment timing dynamics for Q4.

是的，這題我來回答。就糖果業務而言，第二季夏季方案（summer programs）較早出貨所帶來的影響，基本上被第三季我們看到的強勁季節性鋪貨（seasonal sell-in）所抵銷。因此，對第四季而言，我會說你可以把時點因素視為大致相互抵銷；再加上多一個出貨日，同時我們也將面對 2025 年第四季零售商庫存水位較低的基期（lapped）。所以我會說，第四季在出貨時點動態上大致是相互抵銷。

All right. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. You may now disconnect your lines and thank you for your participation.

我們的問答環節到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話線，感謝您的參與。