荷美爾 (HRL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hormel Foods Corporation Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to David Dahlstrom. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加荷美爾食品公司第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想把會議交給大衛·達爾斯特羅姆 (David Dahlstrom)。請繼續。

Good morning. Welcome to the Hormel Foods Conference Call for the Third Quarter of Fiscal 2023. We released our results this morning before the market opened, around 6:30 a.m. Eastern Time. If you did not receive a copy of the release, you can find it on our website at hormelfoods.com under the Investors section.

早上好。歡迎參加荷美爾食品 2023 財年第三季度電話會議。今天早上，美國東部時間早上 6:30 左右，市場開盤前，我們發布了業績。如果您沒有收到該新聞稿的副本，您可以在我們的網站 hormelfoods.com 的“投資者”部分找到它。

On our call today is Jim Snee, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jacinth Smiley, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Deanna Brady, Executive Vice President of the Retail segment. Jim will review the company's third quarter results and give a perspective on our outlook for the balance of fiscal year 2023. Jacinth will then provide detailed financial results and further commentary on our outlook. Deanna will join Jim and Jacinth for the Q&A portion of the call.

今天與我們通話的是董事會主席、總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Snee； Jacinth Smiley，執行副總裁兼首席財務官；迪安娜·布雷迪 (Deanna Brady)，零售部門執行副總裁。 Jim 將回顧公司第三季度業績，並對我們對 2023 財年餘額的前景提出看法。然後 Jacinth 將提供詳細的財務業績以及對我們前景的進一步評論。迪安娜將與吉姆和傑辛斯一起參加電話會議的問答部分。

The line will be open for questions following Jacinth's remarks. As a courtesy to the other analysts, please limit yourself to 1 question with 1 follow-up. If you have additional questions, you're welcome to get back into the queue. At the conclusion of this morning's call, a webcast replay will be posted to our investor website and archived for 1 year.

傑辛斯發表講話後，該熱線將開放接受提問。出於對其他分析師的禮貌，請將自己限制在 1 個問題和 1 個後續問題上。如果您還有其他問題，歡迎您回到隊列中。今天上午的電話會議結束時，網絡廣播重播將發佈到我們的投資者網站上並存檔一年。

Before we get started this morning, I need to reference the safe harbor statement. Some of the comments made today will be forward-looking, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the statements we will be making. Please refer to our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, which can be accessed at hormelfoods.com under the Investors section.

在我們今天早上開始之前，我需要參考一下安全港聲明。今天發表的一些評論將具有前瞻性，實際結果可能與我們將發表的聲明中表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異。請參閱我們最新的 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格季度報告，您可以在 hormelfoods.com 的“投資者”部分訪問該報告。

Additionally, please note the company uses non-GAAP results to provide investors with a better understanding of the company's operating performance. Non-GAAP figures adjust for the impact of an adverse arbitration ruling of approximately $70 million reflected in operating expense. These non-GAAP measures include adjusted operating income, adjusted operating margin, adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses and adjusted diluted net earnings per share. Discussion on non-GAAP information is detailed in our press release, which can be accessed from our corporate or investor website. I will now turn the call over to Jim Snee.

此外，請注意，公司使用非公認會計準則業績是為了讓投資者更好地了解公司的經營業績。非 GAAP 數據根據不利仲裁裁決的影響進行調整，反映在運營費用中約 7000 萬美元。這些非公認會計準則指標包括調整後的營業收入、調整後的營業利潤率、調整後的銷售、一般和管理費用以及調整後的攤薄每股淨利潤。有關非公認會計原則信息的討論詳見我們的新聞稿，您可以從我們的公司或投資者網站訪問該新聞稿。我現在將把電話轉給吉姆·斯尼。

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. In an increasingly dynamic and competitive environment, we grew volume across all our segments, delivered adjusted diluted net earnings per share in line with last year and made further progress addressing the near-term challenges impacting the business during the quarter. This progress included reducing inventory, continuing to build momentum in the Planter snack nuts business and driving adjusted operating margin improvement compared to last year.

謝謝你，大衛。大家，早安。在日益活躍和競爭激烈的環境中，我們所有部門的銷量均有所增長，調整後的攤薄每股淨利潤與去年持平，並在解決影響本季度業務的近期挑戰方面取得了進一步進展。這一進展包括減少庫存、繼續增強 Planter 零食堅果業務的勢頭以及推動調整後的營業利潤率較去年有所提高。

Reducing inventory to more historical levels remains a top priority for the company. Our actions to rectify the inefficiencies caused by elevated inventory are working, demonstrated by a sequential reduction in dollars of both finished goods and total inventory.

將庫存減少至歷史水平仍然是該公司的首要任務。我們糾正庫存增加造成的效率低下的行動正在發揮作用，成品和總庫存的美元金額連續減少就證明了這一點。

The value of finished goods inventory ended the quarter at its lowest level since the same time last year, representing meaningful improvement. We expect further declines in the fourth quarter and also plan to achieve our day sales and inventory target by the end of the year.

成品庫存價值本季度結束時處於去年同期以來的最低水平，代表著顯著的改善。我們預計第四季度將進一步下降，併計劃在年底前實現日銷量和庫存目標。

We also drove improvement in our Planters business, supported by another quarter of higher shipments and positive results in consumption data. For the quarter, retail shipments of Planter snack nuts and core nuts varieties were up 5% and 24%, respectively. Retail data shows dollar consumption and share improving sequentially for the last 52, 26 and 13-week periods. Volume trends remain encouraging as well with above category performance over the last 6 months. And more recent data shows Planters volume and dollar shares have inflected into positive territory.

在又一個季度的出貨量增加和消費數據的積極結果的支持下，我們還推動了播種機業務的改善。本季度，Planter 休閒堅果和核心堅果品種的零售量分別增長了 5% 和 24%。零售數據顯示，過去 52、26 和 13 週的美元消費和份額連續改善。過去 6 個月的銷量趨勢以及上述類別的表現仍然令人鼓舞。最近的數據顯示，Planters 的銷量和美元份額已進入正值區域。

The launch of our innovative flavored cashews is meeting expectations, and we are seeing strong acceptance from our customers. While early, our flavored cashews are overindexing with younger consumers as we see the benefits of leveraging our brand equity to drive excitement for the category. We are supporting the launch with social and digital activities as well as a national TV ad campaign. And we recently launched an LTO for the fall season, Apple Cider Donut flavored cashews which we expect to drive incremental volume and attention for the category.

我們創新風味腰果的推出符合預期，並且得到了客戶的強烈認可。雖然還處於早期階段，但我們的風味腰果在年輕消費者中的指數過高，因為我們看到了利用我們的品牌資產來激發對該類別的興趣的好處。我們通過社交和數字活動以及全國電視廣告活動來支持此次發布。我們最近推出了秋季 LTO，即蘋果酒甜甜圈風味腰果，我們預計將增加該類別的銷量和關注度。

Momentum continues to build in our snack nuts business as we benefit from regained distribution, investments in innovation and effective promotional support. We continue to do our part as the category leader to support the Planters and core nuts brands to drive growth for our business, the snack nuts category and for our customers.

由於我們受益於重新獲得的分銷、創新投資和有效的促銷支持，我們的零食堅果業務勢頭繼續增強。我們繼續作為品類領導者儘自己的一份力量，支持 Planters 和核心堅果品牌，推動我們的業務、零食堅果品類以及我們的客戶的增長。

Lastly, we continue to make progress in improving our margin structure with adjusted operating margin slightly ahead of last year. Margins benefited from demand for our premium items in Foodservice and growth from the retail SPAM and Black Label bacon portfolios, areas we have invested in heavily over the past 3 years. We also more than overcame the positive mix impact from strong SKIPPY sales in Turkey markets last year, as well as a 15% increase in advertising investments to support our brands during the third quarter. We expect our highest operating margins of the year in the fourth quarter aided by a seasonally strong sales mix and savings from a series of projects aimed at reducing costs and complexity throughout our system.

最後，我們在改善利潤結構方面繼續取得進展，調整後的營業利潤率略高於去年。利潤率受益於我們在餐飲服務領域對優質產品的需求以及零售垃圾郵件和黑標培根產品組合的增長，這些領域是我們在過去三年中大力投資的領域。我們還克服了去年土耳其市場 SKIPPY 強勁銷售以及第三季度支持我們品牌的廣告投資增加 15% 帶來的積極組合影響。我們預計第四季度將實現今年最高的營業利潤，這得益於季節性強勁的銷售組合以及一系列旨在降低整個系統成本和復雜性的項目的節省。

Our third quarter results reflect the strength of our leading brands and the value of our balanced business model. Investments into our brands and continued improvement across our supply chain have generated positive performance in the marketplace. Volume growth for the quarter was broad-based, driven by a recovery in turkey, elevated demand for many of our Foodservice items, and growth from leading retail brands, including SPAM, Black Label, Planters and Hormel Pepperoni.

我們第三季度的業績反映了我們領先品牌的實力以及我們平衡業務模式的價值。對我們品牌的投資和整個供應鏈的持續改進在市場上產生了積極的表現。本季度的銷量增長是廣泛的，其推動因素包括火雞的複蘇、對我們許多餐飲服務產品的需求增加以及 SPAM、Black Label、Planters 和 Hormel Pepperoni 等領先零售品牌的增長。

On an adjusted basis, diluted net earnings per share for the quarter was $0.40, even to last year. Compared to our outlook heading into the quarter, we absorbed unexpected earnings headwinds of $0.02 to $0.03, resulting from much weaker results in our International segment and supply chain disruption caused by a third-party logistics provider shutdown.

經調整後，本季度稀釋後每股淨利潤為 0.40 美元，與去年持平。與我們對本季度的展望相比，我們承受了 0.02 美元至 0.03 美元的意外盈利阻力，這是由於我們的國際部門業績大幅疲軟以及第三方物流提供商關閉造成的供應鏈中斷造成的。

Looking to our segments, our Foodservice segment delivered balanced volume gains and another quarter of segment profit growth. Volume for the quarter increased, driven by growth in our affiliated businesses and strong demand in many branded categories, including pizza toppings, premium bacon and breakfast sausage and premium prepared proteins, brands such as Cafe H, Fire Braised, Fontanini, Old Smokehouse and Bacon 1 delivered volume gains compared to the prior year.

就我們的部門而言，我們的餐飲服務部門實現了均衡的銷量增長和另一個季度的部門利潤增長。本季度銷量有所增加，主要得益於我們附屬業務的增長以及許多品牌類別的強勁需求，包括披薩配料、優質培根和早餐香腸以及優質預製蛋白質，品牌包括Cafe H、Fire Braished、Fontanini、Old Smokehouse和Bacon 1 交付量較上年有所增長。

Net sales declined 3% due to lower market-driven pricing. For context, the average selling price per pound decreased 5% compared to last year, resulting from input cost deflation. As anticipated, our Foodservice business leveraged its differentiated capabilities to drive double-digit segment profit growth, led by better volumes and improved mix. Our team continues to successfully manage pricing and cost dynamics. They continue to actively engage with operators through our direct selling model and they continue to innovate to address key operational issues such as labor, prep time and complexity.

由於市場驅動的定價下降，淨銷售額下降了 3%。就背景而言，由於投入成本下降，每磅平均售價比去年下降了 5%。正如預期的那樣，我們的餐飲服務業務在銷量增加和產品組合改善的帶動下，利用其差異化能力推動了兩位數的部門利潤增長。我們的團隊繼續成功管理定價和成本動態。他們繼續通過我們的直銷模式積極與運營商互動，並繼續創新以解決勞動力、準備時間和復雜性等關鍵運營問題。

Industry data from Technomic is also supportive of growth for our business, with operator sentiment steady, industry employment improving and dollar sales increasing. Inflation in the channel has also slowed for the fourth consecutive month. We expect a strong finish to the year from this team, driven by growth from premium items, further recovery in turkey, and as the team leverages its capabilities in the K-12 and college and university channels this fall.

Technomic 的行業數據也支持我們業務的增長，運營商情緒穩定，行業就業改善，美元銷售額增加。該通道的通脹也連續第四個月放緩。我們預計，在優質產品增長、土耳其進一步復甦以及該團隊今年秋季在 K-12 和學院和大學渠道中發揮其能力的推動下，該團隊將在今年取得強勁業績。

In our Retail segment, we grew volume in key categories and saw a recovery across the turkey portfolio. For the quarter, we delivered volume growth in four of our six retail verticals. And those verticals were value-added meats, bacon, snacking and entertaining and emerging brands. Volume and net sales improved for the value-added meats vertical, primarily due to higher turkey volumes. The team is heavily focused on regaining distribution of our value-added Jennie-O products and managing turkey supply through the current recovery period and upcoming holiday season.

在零售部門，我們關鍵類別的銷量有所增長，火雞產品組合也出現了復甦。本季度，我們在六個零售垂直領域中的四個實現了銷量增長。這些垂直行業包括增值肉類、培根、零食、娛樂和新興品牌。增值肉類垂直市場的銷量和淨銷售額有所改善，這主要是由於火雞銷量增加。該團隊主要致力於重新獲得增值 Jennie-O 產品的分銷，並在當前的恢復期和即將到來的假期期間管理火雞供應。

The bacon vertical again delivered excellent results due to elevated demand for Black Label items and favorable input costs for most of the quarter. Over the last 52 weeks, Black Label bacon has grown share in household penetration by 1 point each. Our strategy to offer a wide variety of both raw and pre-cooked items in the marketplace has been successful, as we grow our business in the large and highly relevant bacon category. Our team is executing our brand strategy while maneuvering through the market volatility we are currently experiencing.

由於本季度大部分時間對黑標產品的需求增加以及有利的投入成本，培根垂直行業再次取得了優異的業績。在過去 52 週內，黑標培根的家庭滲透率份額增長了 1 個百分點。隨著我們在大型且高度相關的培根類別中發展業務，我們在市場上提供各種生食和預煮食品的戰略取得了成功。我們的團隊正在執行我們的品牌戰略，同時應對我們目前正在經歷的市場波動。

Volume gains for the snacking and entertainment vertical were led by Planters snack nuts, Corn Nuts corn kernels, Hormel Pepperoni and Hormel Gatherings party trays. In addition to improvement for the Planters snack nuts business, our pepperoni and Hormel Gatherings businesses are healthy, demonstrated by household penetration gains for these brands during the quarter. We expect holiday demand and promotional support to drive a strong end of the year for the Planters, Hormel Gatherings and Columbus brands.

零食和娛樂垂直領域的銷量增長主要由 Planters 零食堅果、Corn Nuts 玉米粒、Hormel 意大利辣香腸和 Hormel Gatherings 派對托盤帶動。除了 Planters 零食堅果業務的改善外，我們的意大利辣香腸和荷美爾 Gatherings 業務也很健康，本季度這些品牌的家庭滲透率的提高就證明了這一點。我們預計節日需求和促銷支持將推動 Planters、Hormel Gatherings 和 Columbus 品牌在今年年底取得強勁表現。

Our Applegate business posted another quarter of volume and net sales growth, led by our frozen line of breaded chicken and breakfast sausage. Many products also outpaced category dollar sales growth during the quarter, including breaded chicken, breakfast sausage, bacon and hotdogs. The team also introduced Applegate Naturals for frittata bites, the industry's first and only Certified Humane frozen egg bites.

我們的阿普爾蓋特業務在我們的麵包屑雞肉和早餐香腸冷凍產品線的帶動下，銷量和淨銷售額又實現了一個季度的增長。本季度許多產品的銷售額增長也超過了類別銷售額的增長，包括麵包屑雞肉、早餐香腸、培根和熱狗。該團隊還推出了用於菜肉餡煎蛋餅的Applegate Naturals，這是業界第一個也是唯一一個經過人道認證的冷凍蛋塊。

In the fourth quarter, we expect to benefit from expanded distribution for the Applegate brand and from new capacity to support our popular line of frozen breakfast sausage. Net sales of global flavors items were comparable to last year, while pricing actions, operational gains and favorable input costs on avocados drove equity and earnings improvement for our MegaMex business. The Herdez brand remains relevant with consumers, outpacing category growth for dollar and volume sales in the Salsa, taco sauce, hot sauce, refrigerated guacamole and refrigerated salsa categories.

在第四季度，我們預計將從 Applegate 品牌的擴大分銷以及支持我們受歡迎的冷凍早餐香腸系列的新產能中受益。全球風味產品的淨銷售額與去年相當，而牛油果的定價行動、運營收益和有利的投入成本推動了我們 MegaMex 業務的股本和盈利改善。 Herdez 品牌仍然與消費者息息相關，其美元銷售額和銷量增長速度超過了莎莎醬、墨西哥玉米卷醬、辣醬、冷藏鱷梨醬和冷藏莎莎醬類別的類別增長。

Convenient meals and proteins net sales declined as higher sales to SPAM varieties and Hormel chili were more than offset by the difficult comparison from high levels of demand for Skippy spreads last year. We continue to gain distribution on both innovative and core items during the quarter, which helped alleviate some of this pressure.

方便食品和蛋白質的淨銷售額下降，因為 SPAM 品種和荷美爾辣椒的銷售額增加，但與去年 Skippy 醬的高需求水平的困難比較所抵消。本季度我們繼續獲得創新和核心項目的分配，這有助於緩解部分壓力。

In the fourth quarter, we have numerous programs in place to engage consumers at the store level and online with reminders of the value offered by our products. These efforts are expected to help offset the impact of elasticities and as consumers utilize their pantry supplies. We also secured additional capacity for Skippy peanut butter which should help meet the elevated levels of demand we continue to see.

在第四季度，我們制定了許多計劃，在商店和網上吸引消費者，提醒他們我們產品所提供的價值。這些努力預計將有助於抵消彈性的影響以及消費者利用其食品儲藏室供應的影響。我們還獲得了 Skippy 花生醬的額外產能，這應該有助於滿足我們持續看到的不斷增長的需求水平。

Segment profit for the Retail segment declined due to unfavorable mix and increased brand investments partially offset by the impact from pricing actions across the portfolio, improved bacon volume and higher equity and earnings from MegaMex. Our Retail business is benefiting from market share gains innovation, new distribution, higher fill rates in key categories and effective advertising and brand support. However, there remains volume pressure in many categories across the store. Strong execution this fall and holiday season will be key to delivering our outlook.

由於不利的組合和品牌投資的增加，零售部門的利潤下降，但部分被整個投資組合的定價行為、培根產量的增加以及 MegaMex 的股本和收益增加的影響所抵消。我們的零售業務受益於市場份額的增長、創新、新的分銷、關鍵類別更高的填充率以及有效的廣告和品牌支持。然而，商店內許多品類仍然存在銷量壓力。今年秋季和假期的強勁執行力將是實現我們前景的關鍵。

Our International segment remained challenged during the third quarter and the inflection we expected in this business did not materialize. Segment profit declined significantly due to unfavorable pork and turkey commodity markets, softness in China and lower branded export demand. Commodity fresh pork and turkey volumes were strong during the quarter, though depressed pricing led to weaker mix, especially on turkey items. The commodity environment is expected to remain unfavorable for the balance of the year due to high inventories of freezer stocks in key export markets.

我們的國際業務在第三季度仍然面臨挑戰，我們對該業務的預期變化並未實現。由於豬肉和火雞商品市場不利、中國經濟疲軟以及品牌出口需求下降，該部門利潤大幅下降。本季度大宗商品新鮮豬肉和火雞銷量強勁，但價格低迷導致產品組合疲軟，尤其是火雞產品。由於主要出口市場的冷凍機庫存較高，預計今年剩餘時間大宗商品環境仍將不利。

In China, Foodservice sales improved sequentially throughout the quarter, growing 14% compared to last year. However, retail sales remained soft as we lapped difficult comparisons to last year and as consumer demand in the retail channel slowed considerably. Near term, we expect our Foodservice business in China to grow, which should help to offset continued softness in the retail channel. Lower retail sales are anticipated to have a negative impact on China's profitability for the remainder of the year.

在中國，餐飲服務銷售額整個季度環比增長，較去年增長 14%。然而，零售銷售仍然疲軟，因為與去年相比，我們經歷了艱難的比較，而且零售渠道的消費者需求大幅放緩。短期內，我們預計我們在中國的餐飲服務業務將會增長，這將有助於抵消零售渠道的持續疲軟。預計零售額下降將對中國今年剩餘時間的盈利能力產生負面影響。

As we've reiterated over the past few quarters, our strategy is to grow our global brands, multinational businesses in China and Brazil and partnerships around the world are sound. Our international team is confident that these situational dynamics will abate, allowing for our teams to resume delivering accelerated growth.

正如我們在過去幾個季度重申的那樣，我們的戰略是發展我們的全球品牌、中國和巴西的跨國業務以及世界各地的良好合作夥伴關係。我們的國際團隊相信這些形勢動態將會減弱，從而使我們的團隊能夠恢復加速增長。

Turning to our outlook. We remain focused on driving volume and earnings growth as well as delivering on our commitments to improve our business. The operating environment domestically and abroad continues to be dynamic and we anticipate consumers and operators to remain highly intentional in their spending. Our broad portfolio of products and diversified channel exposure position us well in this regard.

轉向我們的展望。我們仍然專注於推動銷量和盈利增長，並履行改善業務的承諾。國內外的經營環境仍然充滿活力，我們預計消費者和運營商的支出仍將保持高度主動性。我們廣泛的產品組合和多元化的渠道暴露使我們在這方面處於有利地位。

As we close the year, we expect a strong finish from our Foodservice segment, incremental savings from a series of projects aimed at reducing cost and complexity throughout our system and further synergies from our implementation of Go Forward. Additionally, we expect continued softness in our International segment and earnings pressure from heightened competition at Retail. We are assuming increased promotional activity this fall in the retail channel as consumer demand moderates to more historical levels and as industry-wide supply chains continue to improve. We also expect an impact from resumed student loan payments, which could pressure overall consumer spending in the U.S.

在年底之際，我們預計我們的餐飲服務部門將取得強勁的業績，一系列旨在降低整個系統成本和復雜性的項目將節省更多成本，並通過實施“前進”計劃產生進一步的協同效應。此外，我們預計國際業務將持續疲軟，零售業競爭加劇將帶來盈利壓力。我們預計，隨著消費者需求放緩至歷史水平以及全行業供應鏈持續改善，今年秋季零售渠道的促銷活動將會增加。我們還預計恢復學生貸款支付會產生影響，這可能會給美國的整體消費者支出帶來壓力。

Taking these factors and our performance to date into account, we are providing fourth quarter guidance and an updated outlook for fiscal 2023. For the fourth quarter, we expect modest volume growth, which assumes growth from the Foodservice segment, continued recovery in turkey and improved fill rates in key categories. Fourth quarter net sales are expected to be between $3.1 billion and $3.6 billion, reflecting our current assumptions for raw material input costs in the fourth quarter. Full year net sales are expected to be down 4% to flat. We expect fourth quarter diluted net earnings per share to be down from last year, which accounts for continued weakness in the International segment and lower retail segment results.

考慮到這些因素和我們迄今為止的業績，我們提供第四季度指導和2023 財年的最新展望。對於第四季度，我們預計銷量將適度增長，前提是餐飲服務領域的增長、土耳其的持續復甦和改善關鍵類別的填充率。第四季度淨銷售額預計在 31 億美元至 36 億美元之間，反映了我們目前對第四季度原材料投入成本的假設。預計全年淨銷售額將下降 4% 至持平。我們預計第四季度稀釋後每股淨利潤將低於去年，這是國際業務持續疲軟和零售業務業績下降的原因。

Full year diluted net earnings per share are expected to be $1.51 to $1.57 and adjusted diluted net earnings per share are expected to be $1.61 to $1.67. We believe our continued investments into our brands, disciplined financial strategy and balanced approach across our businesses position us well for future growth as we close a challenging 2023.

全年稀釋每股淨利潤預計為 1.51 美元至 1.57 美元，調整後稀釋每股淨利潤預計為 1.61 美元至 1.67 美元。我們相信，在我們結束充滿挑戰的 2023 年之際，我們對品牌的持續投資、嚴格的財務戰略和跨業務的平衡方法將為我們未來的增長做好準備。

At our upcoming Investor Day, we plan to provide an update on our fourth quarter assumptions and outlook and further detail on how our investments and transformational efforts as a global branded food company are expected to drive earnings growth in the future. We look forward to hosting many of you in person at our mid-October event. At this time, I will turn the call over to Jacinth Smiley to discuss detailed financial information related to the third quarter and additional color on key drivers to our outlook.

在即將到來的投資者日，我們計劃提供有關第四季度假設和前景的最新信息，並進一步詳細介紹我們作為一家全球品牌食品公司的投資和轉型努力預計將如何推動未來的盈利增長。我們期待在十月中旬的活動中親自接待你們中的許多人。此時，我將把電話轉給 Jacinth Smiley，討論與第三季度相關的詳細財務信息以及影響我們前景的關鍵驅動因素的其他信息。

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. During the third quarter, we delivered volume growth across all of our segments and net sales of $3 billion. Our businesses benefited from higher turkey supplies and continued improvement across our supply chain.

謝謝吉姆，大家早上好。第三季度，我們所有細分市場的銷量均實現增長，淨銷售額達到 30 億美元。我們的業務受益於火雞供應量的增加和整個供應鏈的持續改進。

Third quarter gross profit was $498 million. Gross margins for the third quarter increased compared to last year and improved 30 basis points sequentially compared to the second quarter. SG&A expenses increased compared to last year due to a $70 million accrual resulting from an unexpected, unfavorable arbitration ruling. Adjusted SG&A expenses were in line with last year. Advertising investments were $43 million during the quarter, up 15% compared to last year, as we supported our leading brands in the marketplace.

第三季度毛利潤為4.98億美元。第三季度的毛利率較去年有所增長，較第二季度環比提高了30個基點。由於意外的不利仲裁裁決導致 SG&A 費用增加 7,000 萬美元，與去年相比有所增加。調整後的銷售、管理及行政費用與去年持平。本季度的廣告投資為 4300 萬美元，比去年增長 15%，因為我們支持市場上的領先品牌。

We expect full year advertising expenses to increase compared to the prior year. Equity and earnings of affiliates for the third quarter increased compared to last year due to higher results from MegaMex. Operating income for the third quarter was $217 million, and adjusted operating income was $287 million, 1% lower than last year.

我們預計全年廣告費用將比上年增加。由於 MegaMex 業績增長，第三季度附屬公司的股本和收益較去年有所增加。第三季度營業收入為2.17億美元，調整後營業收入為2.87億美元，比去年下降1%。

As Jim noted in his remarks, operating income was negatively impacted by supply chain disruption caused by third-party logistics provider shutdown. Our teams did an excellent job diverting products through other distribution centers during this brief period, though we absorbed an impact from shortages, incremental logistics costs and elevated levels of distressed inventory.

正如吉姆在講話中指出的那樣，營業收入受到第三方物流提供商關閉造成的供應鏈中斷的負面影響。儘管我們受到了短缺、物流成本增加和不良庫存水平上升的影響，但我們的團隊在這段短暫的時間內將產品轉移到其他配送中心方面表現出色。

The effective tax rate for the quarter was 21.7% compared to 24.5% last year. The lower effective tax rate was primarily due to favorable adjustments related to our fiscal 2022 federal tax return filing. The effective tax rate for fiscal 2023 is still expected to be 21% to 23%.

本季度的有效稅率為 21.7%，而去年為 24.5%。有效稅率較低主要是由於與我們 2022 財年聯邦納稅申報表相關的有利調整。 2023財年的有效稅率預計仍為21%至23%。

The net result of all these factors was diluted net earnings per share of $0.30 and adjusted diluted net earnings per share of $0.40, which was comparable to last year. We generated strong cash flow compared to last year. Operating cash flow during the quarter was $317 million, up 70%. This improvement was driven by favorable working capital adjustments.

所有這些因素的最終結果是稀釋每股淨利潤為 0.30 美元，調整後稀釋每股淨利潤為 0.40 美元，與去年相當。與去年相比，我們產生了強勁的現金流。該季度運營現金流為 3.17 億美元，增長 70%。這一改善是由有利的營運資本調整推動的。

We paid our 380th consecutive quarterly dividend effective August 15 at an annual rate of $1.10 per share. This completes the 95th year of uninterrupted dividend payments to our shareholders. Capital expenditures in the third quarter were $78 million compared to $61 million last year. We're targeting $280 million in capital projects as we prioritize investments in growth, innovation, cost savings, automation and maintenance.

自 8 月 15 日起，我們連續第 380 次支付季度股息，年利率為每股 1.10 美元。這標誌著我們連續第 95 年向股東派發股息。第三季度的資本支出為 7800 萬美元，而去年為 6100 萬美元。我們的資本項目目標為 2.8 億美元，因為我們優先投資於增長、創新、成本節約、自動化和維護。

We have updated our net sales and diluted net earnings per share outlook for the year. As a reminder, our diluted net earnings per share outlook reflects an adverse arbitration ruling of $0.10 per share. We said last quarter that growth in the back half would be partially dependent on the recovery in our International segment. While this dynamic has not played out as anticipated, the near-term drivers for our business continue to be: successful execution against our plans for the Planters snack nuts business; improvement across the supply chain, including delivering on our internal cost reduction goals; year-over-year favorability in commodity and freight markets; and a recovery in turkey volumes.

我們更新了今年的淨銷售額和稀釋後每股淨利潤展望。提醒一下，我們的稀釋後每股淨利潤前景反映了每股 0.10 美元的不利仲裁裁決。我們上季度表示，下半年的增長將部分取決於我們國際業務的複蘇。雖然這種動態並未按預期發揮作用，但我們業務的近期驅動力仍然是：成功執行我們的 Planters 零食堅果業務計劃；改善整個供應鏈，包括實現我們的內部成本降低目標；大宗商品和貨運市場逐年受青睞；以及火雞產量的複蘇。

In addition to the innovation, promotional and advertising support for the Planters business that are expected to positively impact the fourth quarter, we have several work streams underway to drive further improvement in future periods. These work streams encompass all aspects of the value chain and place a heavy emphasis on enhancing mix and expanding margins. The Planters business remains key to our long-term growth as a company and we will continue to invest in and resource the business accordingly.

除了預計將對第四季度產生積極影響的種植者業務的創新、促銷和廣告支持外，我們還正在進行多個工作流程，以推動未來時期的進一步改進。這些工作流涵蓋價值鏈的各個方面，並高度重視增強組合和擴大利潤。種植者業務仍然是我們公司長期發展的關鍵，我們將繼續對該業務進行相應的投資和資源配置。

Performance across our supply chain continues to improve, demonstrated by another quarter of higher fill rates, progress on our commitment to lower inventory and execution on our cost reduction targets. Our team has committed to several projects aimed at reducing cost and complexity to improve our margin structure. In the fourth quarter, we expect to realize incremental freight and indirect supply savings and benefits from our above historical run rate on our legacy cost mitigation efforts.

我們整個供應鏈的績效持續改善，這體現在另一個季度的填充率提高、我們在降低庫存的承諾以及執行成本削減目標方面取得的進展。我們的團隊致力於多個旨在降低成本和復雜性的項目，以改善我們的利潤結構。在第四季度，我們預計將實現增量貨運和間接供應節省，並從我們過去的成本削減努力的歷史運行率中受益。

Longer term, we are committed to advancing the supply chain work stream of Project Orion and a series of multiyear projects aimed at unlocking earnings growth. We plan to provide more detail on these large-scale strategic projects at our Investor Day in October.

從長遠來看，我們致力於推進獵戶座計劃的供應鏈工作流程和一系列旨在釋放盈利增長的多年期項目。我們計劃在 10 月份的投資者日上提供有關這些大型戰略項目的更多詳細信息。

We have seen market stabilization across many inputs, though key pork raw material commodity markets were volatile throughout the third quarter. The USDA composite cutout increased more than 40% sequentially during the quarter, primarily driven by strength in the belly, loin and ham [primal].

儘管整個第三季度主要豬肉原料商品市場波動較大，但我們看到許多投入品市場趨於穩定。本季度美國農業部綜合分切量環比增長超過 40%，這主要是由腹肉、腰肉和火腿的強度推動的[原始]。

To start the fourth quarter, pork costs have begun to moderate seasonally. And we expect lower pork input costs compared to the prior year. We began to see a volume recovery in turkey during the third quarter, and we expect to see higher year-over-year turkey volumes in the fourth quarter. To further support our recovery, we have invested in incremental advertising to drive consumer awareness and engagement in the retail channel. We're beginning to see signs of these actions paying off, especially for the important lean ground category.

從第四季度開始，豬肉成本開始季節性放緩。我們預計豬肉投入成本將低於去年。我們在第三季度開始看到火雞銷量回升，並且預計第四季度火雞銷量將同比增長。為了進一步支持我們的複蘇，我們投資了增量廣告，以提高消費者對零售渠道的認識和參與度。我們開始看到這些行動取得成效的跡象，特別是對於重要的精益地麵類別。

Turkey market continued to move lower in the third quarter as a result of increased supply which is pressuring prices across our channels. Pricing is down considerably on commodity items and for breast meat entering the Foodservice and deli channels.

由於供應增加，土耳其市場在第三季度繼續走低，這給我們渠道的價格帶來了壓力。進入餐飲服務和熟食渠道的商品和胸肉的價格大幅下降。

Importantly, we're producing a full assortment of turkey items, and our teams are selling with confidence in the retail food service and international markets. This bodes well for the long-term outlook for turkey, which remains an important part of our balanced portfolio.

重要的是，我們正在生產品種齊全的火雞產品，我們的團隊在零售食品服務和國際市場上充滿信心地銷售。這對土耳其的長期前景來說是個好兆頭，土耳其仍然是我們平衡投資組合的重要組成部分。

In closing, I want to specifically acknowledge our production professionals across the organization for their continued focus on safety. Their dedication is critical to the success of our company and the primary reason we remain on track for one of our safest years ever. Safety first is a cultural belief, it's non-negotiable and represents an integral part of our company's fabric. We are proud of our track record and the work done each day to maintain our standard of excellence. Thank you to all our team members who uphold our safety-first culture. At this time, I will turn the call over to the operator for the question-and-answer portion of the call.

最後，我要特別感謝整個組織的生產專業人員對安全的持續關注。他們的奉獻精神對於我們公司的成功至關重要，也是我們繼續走上有史以來最安全的年份之一的主要原因。安全第一是一種文化信仰，它是不容談判的，也是我們公司結構的一個組成部分。我們為自己的業績記錄和每天為保持卓越標準所做的工作感到自豪。感謝所有秉承安全第一文化的團隊成員。此時，我會將呼叫轉交給接線員進行呼叫的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Ben Theurer from Barclays.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

Yes. So Jim, I'd like to just follow up a little bit on the cadence of the year, the changes in outlook and wanted to get your thoughts how to put things into perspective. So if we go back first quarter, obviously, there was a lot of like still the inventory issues, too much production, you had to work this through. You took a big hit and you kind of laid the ground as how the rest of the year expected to be, second quarter, very much in line with everything that you've talked about. And it feels like the third quarter started to kind of get sidetracked again. And obviously, with your implied guidance, and you've mentioned you expect EPS in the fourth quarter to be down year-over-year, that's very different from the commentary we got just about 3 months ago when you actually expected in the fourth quarter to see most of growth.

是的。吉姆，我想稍微跟進一下這一年的節奏、前景的變化，並想了解您如何正確看待事情的想法。因此，如果我們回顧第一季度，顯然，仍然存在很多庫存問題、產量過多等問題，你必須解決這個問題。你遭受了巨大的打擊，你為今年剩餘時間的預期奠定了基礎，第二季度，與你所說的一切非常一致。感覺第三季度又開始偏離軌道了。顯然，根據您的暗示指導，並且您提到您預計第四季度的每股收益將同比下降，這與我們大約三個月前收到的評論有很大不同，當時您對第四季度的實際預期看到大部分的增長。

So can you help us understand what in particular it was that drove that significant turn over the last couple of weeks from being on track to being maybe not so much on track and then to actually be off track again. And what you, as a management team can do to get back into the right direction.

那麼，您能否幫助我們了解，到底是什麼推動了過去幾週從步入正軌到不太步入正軌，然後又再次偏離正軌的重大轉變。作為管理團隊，您可以採取哪些措施來回到正確的方向。

Yes. Ben, it's a really, really good question. So we've done, obviously, a lot of thinking about that and there are some things that are uniquely different and the conversation that we had at the end of Q1 and the conversation we're having today. If we take a step back, to the Q1 call, really what we were talking about were more internal dynamics, when we talked about and identified those near-term challenges in Q1. And as a reminder, as you said, it was our inventory situation, the performance of Planters and then the cost margin implications and work that we had to do there. And you fast forward 6 months from that time frame and really, really good progress against all of those near-term challenges. And we feel really good about the work that the team has done.

是的。本，這是一個非常非常好的問題。顯然，我們對此進行了很多思考，並且有一些獨特的事情以及我們在第一季度末進行的對話和我們今天進行的對話。如果我們退一步，回到第一季度的電話會議，當我們討論並確定第一季度的近期挑戰時，我們真正討論的是更多的內部動態。提醒一下，正如您所說，這是我們的庫存狀況、播種機的性能，然後是成本利潤的影響和我們必須在那裡做的工作。從那個時間框架快進 6 個月，在應對所有這些近期挑戰方面取得了非常非常好的進展。我們對團隊所做的工作感到非常滿意。

But as we sit here today, the conversation is different, and the conversation is driven more by what's happening in markets, some of the competitive activity and really overall consumer dynamics. And so those are very uniquely different conversations. More specifically, as we've thought about the fourth quarter, and I think it's important to get that out there, what has changed for us. Well, our Foodservice business hasn't changed. We expect that business to remain well positioned, continue to deliver growth, continued segment profit growth in Q4 on higher volumes.

但當我們今天坐在這裡時，談話是不同的，談話更多地是由市場上發生的事情、一些競爭活動和真正的整體消費者動態驅動的。所以這些都是非常獨特的不同對話。更具體地說，當我們考慮第四季度時，我認為重要的是要弄清楚我們發生了什麼變化。嗯，我們的餐飲服務業務沒有改變。我們預計該業務將保持良好定位，繼續實現增長，在第四季度銷量增加的情況下繼續實現部門利潤增長。

Our International business, I think what's changed there is that it is weaker than we anticipated the last time that we talked. We had talked about an inflection point in China. And we haven't seen that, especially on our retail business. We've talked about some elasticities in our international SPAM business, primarily in the Philippines. That's a sizable legacy market, and we've seen significant pricing activity over the last several years. But with that came some higher-than-expected elasticities. The team has already done some work to really drive consumer demand. We're seeing a rebound in offtake and so there is a really good plan in place for recovery there.

我們的國際業務，我認為發生的變化是它比我們上次談話時預期的要弱。我們談到了中國的拐點。我們還沒有看到這一點，特別是在我們的零售業務上。我們已經討論了我們的國際垃圾郵件業務（主要是菲律賓）的一些彈性。這是一個相當大的傳統市場，我們在過去幾年中看到了顯著的定價活動。但隨之而來的是一些高於預期的彈性。該團隊已經做了一些工作來真正推動消費者需求。我們看到承購量出現反彈，因此有一個非常好的恢復計劃。

We've also talked about some of the commodity headwinds at International -- and so what we anticipated there is weaker than we thought. And just in total, how do you overcome that? I mentioned the work that we're doing on SPAM. The China piece, the macroeconomic issues, there's a lot of moving pieces there. And so we're continuing to work on retail with innovation, new distribution, but we need to see that accelerate.

我們還討論了國際市場上的一些大宗商品逆風，因此我們的預期比我們想像的要弱。總的來說，你如何克服這個問題？我提到了我們正在針對垃圾郵件所做的工作。中國的問題，宏觀經濟問題，有很多動人的問題。因此，我們將繼續致力於零售業的創新和新分銷，但我們需要看到這種加速。

Our Foodservice business continues to do well. We're aligned with some multinational business there that continues to perform. And then when you get to the Retail segment, I mean, that's the part of the business, Ben, that's a bit more nuanced. And it's good to have this conversation because as a reminder, in Q4 of 2022, we had a really strong turkey performance in the fourth quarter of 2022. And a lot of that benefit was allocated to retail in our restated financials. That being said, I mean we expected to be able to overcome that. And that's how we looked at the business for the balance of the year. However, we're seeing some heightened challenges across the channel.

我們的餐飲服務業務繼續表現良好。我們與那裡的一些跨國企業保持著合作，這些企業的業績仍在繼續。然後，當你談到零售部門時，我的意思是，這就是業務的一部分，本，這有點微妙。進行這次對話很好，因為提醒一下，在2022 年第四季度，我們在2022 年第四季度的火雞表現非常強勁。在我們重述的財務數據中，大部分收益都分配給了零售業。話雖這麼說，我的意思是我們希望能夠克服這個問題。這就是我們對今年剩餘時間業務的看法。然而，我們看到整個渠道面臨著一些嚴峻的挑戰。

I think we can see what categories have done in general, promotions are higher as volumes remain soft across a lot of the categories, a lot of the aisles. Our team continues to do work. We're holding our shares in the marketplace. The execution at the sales level is actually really, really good. But we know that, that's going to continue to be an area that's challenged.

我認為我們可以看到品類的總體表現，促銷活動更高，因為很多品類、很多渠道的銷量仍然疲軟。我們的團隊繼續開展工作。我們在市場上持有我們的股票。銷售層面的執行力實際上非常非常好。但我們知道，這將繼續成為一個面臨挑戰的領域。

The area where we've seen the most change really is our expectations for turkey. And as we said last quarter, we didn't expect this to be a flip to switch event and that it was going to take some time. We did expect it to happen faster. It's been a little slower than we expected. And so that's really where probably the biggest change has occurred for us. And I do want to say, though, if we take the turkey out of our volume figures, there's still really good underlying volume growth on a consolidated basis. But what changed is our lean ground turkey business. We've talked about really just getting back into business. We knew that we had to sacrifice a lot of distribution during AI, and it didn't come back as quickly as we thought.

我們看到變化最大的領域確實是我們對火雞的期望。正如我們上季度所說，我們沒想到這會是一次翻轉事件，而且需要一些時間。我們確實希望它發生得更快。這比我們預期的要慢一些。所以這可能就是我們發生的最大變化的地方。不過，我確實想說，如果我們把火雞從我們的銷量數據中剔除，那麼在綜合基礎上仍然存在非常好的潛在銷量增長。但改變的是我們的瘦肉火雞業務。我們已經討論過要重新開始營業了。我們知道，在人工智能的過程中，我們必須犧牲大量的分配，而且它並沒有像我們想像的那麼快回來。

Now what I will tell you is some of our recent results are really showing the benefits of investments that we've made to drive consumer engagement. So we are seeing improvement. Lots of work to do, but lots of opportunity for growth. And then the other part for us is we did expect a really strong finish to the year on our whole turkey business. And started out strong, but most recently, we've seen some unique market dynamics and customer behavior that's really impacting both volume and pricing. Now that's a work in progress. We're still working through this as we speak.

現在我要告訴您的是，我們最近的一些結果確實顯示了我們為推動消費者參與而進行的投資的好處。所以我們看到了改善。有很多工作要做，但也有很多成長的機會。對我們來說，另一部分是我們確實預計今年整個火雞業務將取得非常強勁的業績。一開始表現強勁，但最近，我們看到了一些獨特的市場動態和客戶行為，它們確實影響了銷量和價格。現在這項工作正在進行中。截至我們發言時，我們仍在解決這個問題。

And then the last part that's newer news is we've had some really, really hot weather here in the Midwest, at the end -- middle to end of August and expected again this weekend. So we have unfortunately lost some birds that will have an impact on our business in the fourth quarter.

最後一個最新消息是，我們在八月中下旬，中西部地區經歷了一些非常非常炎熱的天氣，預計本週末還會出現這種天氣。因此，我們不幸失去了一些鳥類，這將對我們第四季度的業務產生影響。

And so I know it's a long-winded answer, but I think it's necessary to really put into context what's changed for us. But as we look past all of that, when you say what can you do to overcome that or change that? I mentioned the work that we're doing and the performance of our brands to hold shares in the marketplace. Our Planters business is definitely going in the right direction, regaining distribution, some fantastic innovation that's in the marketplace, really capitalizing on investments that we've made, being able to secure some additional Skippy capacity because that demand remains really strong. Continued benefit from our supply chain as our fill rates continue to improve.

所以我知道這是一個冗長的答案，但我認為有必要真正將我們所發生的變化融入到背景中。但當我們回顧這一切時，當你說你能做些什麼來克服或改變它？我提到了我們正在做的工作以及我們品牌在市場上佔有份額的表現。我們的播種機業務肯定正在朝著正確的方向發展，重新獲得分銷，市場上有一些出色的創新，真正利用了我們所做的投資，能​​夠獲得一些額外的Skippy 產能，因為需求仍然非常強勁。隨著我們的填充率不斷提高，我們的供應鏈將持續受益。

So there's a lot to be encouraged about. But your question is a good one. And hopefully, that gives you some better context as to the differences in our business but also the differences in the conversations that we've had.

所以有很多值得鼓勵的地方。但你的問題提得很好。希望這能讓您更好地了解我們業務的差異以及我們對話中的差異。

Your next question comes from Peter Galbo from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的彼得·加爾博。

Jim, thanks for all the thoughts. I guess just maybe a follow-up to Ben's question or to put a finer point on it, one of the big questions we are getting this morning is just within the range of outcomes in 4Q in your guidance, it still seems like there is a fairly wide range, a $500 million range on revenues at least. So just, I guess, within the context of that, you talked about all of the headwinds, but I guess what could go right that would push you maybe towards the higher end of that versus the lower end of that I think might be helpful.

吉姆，謝謝你的所有想法。我想這可能是本問題的後續行動，或者說得更詳細一點，我們今天早上收到的一個大問題就在您指導的第四季度的結果範圍內，似乎仍然存在範圍相當廣泛，收入至少有5 億美元。所以，我想，在這種情況下，你談到了所有的逆風，但我想什麼是正確的，這可能會推動你走向高端，而不是我認為可能有幫助的低端。

Yes, it's a great question. And really, the biggest thing, and we've seen it very recently in terms of the market performance is we've had significant volatility in two very important inputs. You think about what's happened in the belly market, the run-up and now the softening of the market. We have seen strength in 72 lean trim. So there's been a lot of volatility there. And then probably the detailed answer that I gave a little while ago is how does turkey come back and at what rate. And then the other thing is you got the market conditions, but we've had pretty strong volume as well. So I think when you put those two things together, it's important for us just to have that range.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。事實上，最重要的是，我們最近在市場表現方面看到的是，我們在兩個非常重要的投入方面出現了巨大的波動。你想想腹部市場發生了什麼，市場的上漲和現在的疲軟。我們已經看到了 72 精益修剪的力量。所以那裡存在很大的波動性。然後我剛才給出的詳細答案可能是火雞如何回歸以及以什麼速度回歸。另一件事是市場狀況，但我們的交易量也相當強勁。所以我認為當你把這兩件事放在一起時，對我們來說擁有這個範圍很重要。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And you touched on this a little bit, Jim, but I think in the context of bellies and this may have been in the prepared remarks as well. Can you just give us a sense of what you are seeing maybe in real time there. The July move was outsized even relative to seasonality. I'm sure maybe Prop 12 played a role in that. But just -- you saw that run up a decent amount. It's come back a bit. Just what are you seeing in real time given that it does impact a meaningful part of the business?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。吉姆，你稍微談到了這一點，但我認為在腹部的背景下，這也可能在準備好的評論中。您能否讓我們了解一下您在那裡實時看到的情況？即使相對於季節性而言，7 月份的變動也是過大的。我確信第 12 號提案可能在其中發揮了作用。但只是 - 你看到它增加了相當多的數量。已經回來一點了鑑於它確實影響了業務的重要部分，您實時看到了什麼？

Yes. I mean, I guess what we're seeing in real time is what you're seeing in the marketplace and that it does have an impact in terms of how we are pricing the product. And as you know, as markets run up, you're always lagging a little bit further behind. And then as markets come down, you're catching up that way, too, but you probably see a little bit of expansion. And so the volatility is the thing that really as you know, leads to the unpredictability in what we're talking about.

是的。我的意思是，我想我們實時看到的就是您在市場上看到的，它確實對我們如何定價產品產生影響。正如你所知，隨著市場的上漲，你總是會落後一些。然後，當市場下跌時，你也會以這種方式迎頭趕上，但你可能會看到一點擴張。因此，正如您所知，波動性確實導致了我們所討論的事情的不可預測性。

Your next question comes from Ben Bienvenu from Stephens.

您的下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Ben Bienvenu。

I want to -- if you would discuss these drivers that are negatively impacting 4Q results that have kind of evidenced themselves intra-quarter during the third quarter, what is your view at the moment on the duration of these impacts. So thinking about more challenged exports, increased promotional activity at retail and then weaker China results would -- I would think that those would have more duration in the fourth quarter, but how would you expect these things to play out based on what you've seen in the past?

我想——如果您要討論這些對第四季度業績產生負面影響的驅動因素，這些驅動因素在第三季度的季度內已經得到了證明，那麼您目前對這些影響的持續時間有何看法。因此，考慮到出口面臨更多挑戰、零售促銷活動增加以及中國業績疲弱，我認為這些情況在第四季度會持續更長的時間，但根據您的情況，您預計這些事情會如何發展過去見過？

Yes. Ben, that's a good question. And that's really what we're focused on is we know we've got some of these near-term challenges in Q4. A couple of things that we talked about that are really, we think, immediate or more closer in improvement, so when we talk about the SPAM business in International, we're seeing that improved offtake. And so we expect that business to be better in Q1. We talked about the lean ground turkey business. And so that really is just that continued acceleration. And that we've seen recent improvement in that business. So that's only going to continue to get better. We're in the middle of the whole bird thing and that will shake out here between the end of Q4 and early Q1 given the timing of the holidays.

是的。本，這是個好問題。這才是我們真正關注的重點，我們知道我們在第四季度遇到了一些近期挑戰。我們認為，我們談到的一些事情確實是立即或更接近的改進，因此當我們談論國際垃圾郵件業務時，我們看到了承購量的改善。因此，我們預計第一季度的業務會更好。我們談論了瘦肉火雞業務。所以這確實是持續的加速。我們最近看到該業務有所改善。所以這只會繼續變得更好。我們正處於整個鳥類事件的中間，考慮到假期的時間，這將在第四季度末和第一季度初之間發生變化。

The competitive dynamics in the domestic retail business outside of what we've talked about, I think our team is doing a really good job in terms of marketplace execution. We are now seeing some cost favorability trends. I think our innovation pipeline that we're seeing is really robust. So there is a lot to like outside of some of the things that we've talked about.

除了我們所討論的內容之外，國內零售業務的競爭動態，我認為我們的團隊在市場執行方面做得非常好。我們現在看到了一些成本有利的趨勢。我認為我們所看到的創新渠道非常強大。因此，除了我們談論的一些事情之外，還有很多值得喜歡的事情。

The part that is still a wildcard is the macro issues in China. Obviously, we've said earlier, we thought there'd be an inflection point, and we were wrong. So we're going to continue to do our work there in terms of driving distribution, the focus on innovation, getting our Foodservice business to continue to grow. And so we are optimistic about what the future holds. But clearly, we've got some of the short-term challenges that we're addressing.

仍然不確定的部分是中國的宏觀問題。顯然，我們之前說過，我們認為會有一個拐點，但我們錯了。因此，我們將繼續在推動分銷、注重創新、讓我們的餐飲服務業務繼續增長方面開展工作。因此，我們對未來持樂觀態度。但顯然，我們正在解決一些短期挑戰。

Okay. Fair enough. On thinking about the Jennie-O business, there's a number of puts and takes. The International business segment seems to be negatively impacted by it, while some of the other segments are positively impacted by it. When you think about the runway over the next 6 to 12 months, we have declining turkey prices, but meaningfully stronger volumes as you regain distribution and the flock comes back, your production comes back. You should also be rotating into considerably lower feed prices over the next year. So what would you expect the net benefit or detriment of all of those various factors to be as we look out over the duration of this next 6 to 12 months?

好的。很公平。在思考 Jennie-O 業務時，有很多不同之處。國際業務部門似乎受到了負面影響，而其他一些部門則受到了積極影響。當你考慮未來 6 到 12 個月的情況時，我們的火雞價格會下降，但隨著你重新獲得分配、雞群回來、你的產量恢復，銷量會顯著增加。您還應該在明年轉向大幅降低飼料價格。那麼，當我們展望未來 6 到 12 個月期間，您預計所有這些不同因素的淨收益或淨損失是多少？

Yes. I think your -- the things that you're talking about are the things that are going to drive that business into 2024. And again, when we talk about the nuances of the turkey business. And this is going to get a little bit in the [weeds] here, Ben. But when we think about how maybe our lean ground business didn't accelerate as quickly as we thought, while there was some turkey that international had to sell, and those market conditions were depressed. And so as our lean ground business regains distribution and accelerates, there'll be less of that commodity type sale that they'll have to endure. And so that's a positive for us.

是的。我認為你所談論的事情將推動該業務進入 2024 年。再說一次，當我們談論火雞業務的細微差別時。本，這將會在[雜草]中變得一點點。但當我們想到，也許我們的精益地面業務並沒有像我們想像的那麼快地加速，而國際公司不得不出售一些火雞，而這些市場狀況卻很蕭條。因此，隨著我們的精益地面業務重新獲得分銷並加速發展，他們必須忍受的商品類型銷售將會減少。這對我們來說是積極的。

You're right on the feed costs. I mean, we expect that to be favorable as we head into 2024 and breast meat prices should be more in line with more historical levels. So we haven't done the math yet to say how is that going to shake out in total but I think the bottom line, and we said this a couple of times throughout the year, is that turkey is an important part of this portfolio. When we think about it from a Foodservice perspective and we have it in our Retail portfolio. It's good to have turkey back. And for us to be able to operate in a more normalized environment over time, I mean, that's really where we're at our best, and that's what we want to get to.

你的飼料成本是對的。我的意思是，我們預計，隨著 2024 年的到來，這將是有利的，胸肉價格應該更符合歷史水平。因此，我們還沒有進行數學計算，無法確定總體情況將如何變化，但我認為最重要的是，我們全年多次說過，火雞是該投資組合的重要組成部分。當我們從餐飲服務的角度考慮它時，我們將其納入我們的零售產品組合中。火雞回來了真是太好了。隨著時間的推移，我們能夠在更加規範化的環境中運作，我的意思是，這確實是我們處於最佳狀態的地方，也是我們想要達到的目標。

Your next question comes from Rupesh Parikh from Oppenheimer.

您的下一個問題來自奧本海默的魯佩什·帕里克（Rupesh Parikh）。

I know it's a little early, but just curious if you can give any puts and takes as you guys look to FY '24. And would you expect at this point to return to growth next year?

我知道現在有點早，但只是好奇你們能否在展望 24 財年時給出任何看跌期權和看跌期權。您預計明年會恢復增長嗎？

Rupesh, I think we'll probably tag team this one a bit because I think as we look into '24, it applies to -- everyone's going to have a point of view. I do think it's important to go back to some of those internal dynamics that we addressed early on in the year and that we are in a better spot on those near-term challenges or we'll call them key priorities. When we think about the state of the Planters business today, the work that we've done on inventory, the margin improvement that we've seen. And there's more work to come in that area, but we've done some really nice work and then really leveraging more of the Go Forward benefits in year 2, right? Year 1 is always feeling things out a bit, but we know that there will be more benefit in year 2.

Rupesh，我想我們可能會給這個團隊貼上一點標籤，因為我認為當我們研究 '24 時，它適用於——每個人都會有自己的觀點。我確實認為，重要的是回到我們今年早些時候解決的一些內部動態，我們在這些近期挑戰上處於更好的位置，或者我們將其稱為關鍵優先事項。當我們思考當今種植園業務的狀況、我們在庫存方面所做的工作以及我們所看到的利潤率改善時。該領域還有更多工作要做，但我們已經做了一些非常好的工作，然後在第二年真正利用了更多的 Go Forward 優勢，對吧？第一年總是會有一些感覺，但我們知道第二年會有更多好處。

But Ben mentioned feed costs. We do expect feed costs to be a tailwind as we head into 2024, further leveraging and capitalizing on those investments that we've made and then we've also talked about the recovery in volume -- turkey volume. And so having that volume at more normalized market conditions is a good thing. The offsets, obviously, we talked about China, the China economy, what happens there? What does inflation do with labor is a big component of that.

但本提到了飼料成本。我們確實預計，進入 2024 年，飼料成本將成為推動因素，進一步利用和利用我們所做的投資，然後我們還討論了數量（火雞數量）的複蘇。因此，在更加正常化的市場條件下擁有這樣的交易量是一件好事。顯然，我們談到了中國、中國經濟，那裡發生了什麼？通貨膨脹對勞動力的影響是其中的一個重要組成部分。

So we feel really good about the core business, the things that we can control. It's the things that are always out there that are outside your control that can be some potential headwinds. But by and large, continued strength in food service. Retail continue to be competitive, but we expect to hold shares in our categories, I've mentioned already, strong innovation pipeline that's really exciting. And then International should improve offtake, I mean, obviously, a significantly lower base. And so Jacinth, I'll let you add your two cents word.

所以我們對核心業務、我們可以控制的事情感覺非常好。那些總是在你控制之外的事情可能會成為一些潛在的阻力。但總體而言，餐飲服務持續強勁。零售業仍然具有競爭力，但我們希望持有我們類別的份額，我已經提到過，強大的創新渠道確實令人興奮。然後國際應該提高承購量，我的意思是，顯然，基數要低得多。 Jacinth，我會讓你補充你的兩分錢的話。

Yes, certainly. Rupesh, Jim has talked about a lot of the headwinds and some of the tailwinds here and things that we're working through from a market and customer consumer standpoint, there are a lot of other things we're also doing in parallel here as we think about getting back to the margin structure that we have talked about before. And so we're heavily focused from a project standpoint, working through how do we get our portfolio more healthy. And so there are a couple of projects I'll just throw out here that we'll talk more about in Investor Day as we think about portfolio segmentation and optimization, continuing on with Project Orion as we think about our supply chain and the effectiveness there and building out the right infrastructure to support this business as we continue to evolve and modernize and just also thinking through advancing on different areas from an end-to-end planning standpoint and continuing the transformation and getting the cost out of our system internally from an effectiveness and efficiency standpoint.

是的，當然了。吉姆·魯佩什（Rupesh）談到了這裡的很多逆風和一些順風，以及我們從市場和客戶消費者的角度正在解決的事情，我們還在這裡同時做很多其他事情，因為我們考慮回到我們之前討論過的保證金結構。因此，從項目的角度來看，我們非常關注如何讓我們的投資組合更加健康。因此，我將在這裡拋出幾個項目，我們將在投資者日更多地討論這些項目，因為我們考慮投資組合細分和優化，繼續 Orion 項目，因為我們考慮我們的供應鍊及其有效性隨著我們不斷發展和現代化，建立正確的基礎設施來支持這項業務，同時從端到端規劃的角度思考不同領域的進展，繼續轉型，並從內部從系統中消除成本。有效性和效率的觀點。

So there is a lot of work going on in parallel as we deal with the tactical to operate the business. We're also thinking about long-term growth and setting this business up as I said, to continue to return to a margin structure and expanding margins from where we are today.

因此，在我們處理業務運營策略時，有很多工作同時進行。正如我所說，我們還在考慮長期增長並建立這項業務，以繼續恢復利潤結構並在目前的基礎上擴大利潤。

Rupesh, this is Deanna. I just wanted to tag team on that from a supply chain standpoint, but from a retail standpoint, we've been not only managing to the current environment, but continue to stay focused on standing up Go Forward and what that looks like and really starting to see the benefit. As you think about Go Forward was to align our structure to our strategy. And if we think of one of our company strategies of snacking and entertaining, the team has been really a cross-functional team dedicated to modernizing the Planters business as an example. The team has made significant progress, and we're seeing that play out. A few things that we've done as we pull our resources around Planters in particular, we've pulled up our innovation pipeline. We're currently in market with three new flavors of cashews. We've quickly come to market with advertising to support that new launch, help surrender to the cashew, and we're having great response pulls from our retailers and our consumers.

魯佩什，這是迪安娜。我只是想從供應鏈的角度來標記團隊，但從零售的角度來看，我們不僅在應對當前環境，而且繼續專注於站起來前進以及真正開始的樣子看到好處。正如您所想，“前進”就是使我們的結構與我們的戰略保持一致。如果我們考慮一下我們公司的零食和娛樂戰略之一，那麼該團隊實際上是一支致力於實現種植園業務現代化的跨職能團隊。該團隊已經取得了重大進展，我們正在見證這一成果。當我們將資源集中在 Planters 周圍時，我們做了一些事情，特別是我們已經建立了我們的創新渠道。目前，我們在市場上推出了三種新口味的腰果。我們很快就在市場上投放廣告來支持新產品的推出，幫助人們屈服於腰果，並且我們得到了零售商和消費者的強烈反響。

Additionally, the team has looked at capital expenses and modernizations that we need in the plant to align with the consumer and packaging as well as a really robust innovation pipeline that's coming at us. And then from a sales execution against Planters, again, as a benefit of Go Forward, thinking about hard about regaining distribution, we did a price pack architecture study in the first half of the year, and the team is out working with our retailers to help them think about the category itself and the set and that price pack architecture work is helping us have really fruitful, insightful and analytical conversations with our retailers about how we grow together and how we can both meet the consumer with products that are going to be relevant and provide category growth.

此外，該團隊還研究了我們工廠所需的資本支出和現代化改造，以與消費者和包裝以及即將到來的真正強大的創新管道保持一致。然後，從針對 Planters 的銷售執行中，再次，作為 Go Forward 的一個好處，努力思考重新獲得分銷，我們在上半年進行了價格包架構研究，該團隊正在與我們的零售商合作幫助他們思考品類本身和系列，價格包架構工作正在幫助我們與零售商進行真正富有成效、富有洞察力和分析性的對話，討論我們如何共同成長，以及我們如何通過將要推出的產品滿足消費者的需求。相關並提供品類增長。

Your next question comes from Tom Palmer from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的湯姆·帕爾默。

I think in the past, what we have seen with the whole turkey business is falling commodity prices don't always flow through the retail business immediately just given how supply contracts are structured. You made a comment about unique market dynamics and customer behavior for whole birds. I just wanted to unpack what's happening. Is the net of this that whole bird prices are coming down at retail may be faster than we typically see? Or did you mean something else by that?

我認為過去，我們在整個火雞業務中看到的是，考慮到供應合同的結構，大宗商品價格的下跌並不總是立即流向零售業務。您對整禽的獨特市場動態和客戶行為發表了評論。我只是想解開正在發生的事情。整隻禽類零售價格的下降速度是否比我們通常看到的要快？或者你說的還有別的意思嗎？

No, that's correct, Tom. I mean I think at this point in the year, you'd see some higher bookings but as the market has declined, I think there is a bit more of a wait-and-see mentality and so that's really what we're talking about when we're saying that there's some unique market dynamics.

不，這是正確的，湯姆。我的意思是，我認為在今年的這個時候，您會看到一些更高的預訂量，但隨著市場的下滑，我認為更多的是觀望心態，所以這就是我們真正談論的內容當我們說存在一些獨特的市場動態時。

And then just on the competitive environment at retail and your comment about the promotional activity, just categories stepping up. Are these -- I guess, first, like what are the categories where you're seeing that competition and promotional activity most intense? And then how would you describe kind of the start of that activity? Is it you're running it to drive share in certain categories? Or is the promotion step up on your side more in response to what you're seeing from competitors?

然後，關於零售業的競爭環境以及您對促銷活動的評論，只是類別的增加。我想，首先，您認為競爭和促銷活動最激烈的類別是什麼？那麼您如何描述該活動的開始方式？您運行它是為了提高某些類別的份額嗎？或者，您的促銷活動是否更多地是為了響應您從競爭對手那裡看到的情況？

Tom, this is Deanna. Thanks for the question. This isn't new for us, although it's new probably over the last couple of years as companies have pulled back on promotions just because of supply and high demand. So this isn't new for us. And having promotional activity as well as a balance with our baseline business is really normal, but it hasn't been normal in the last few years. So as we re-enter promotional activity, we have the opportunity to really think about it strategically and to leverage our revenue growth management team and price pack architecture work to really inform and sit down with the retailers to say, how do we do this, that's really positive for both of us. And how do we ensure that we're meeting the consumer and that we're reminding the consumer about our products. The value that they provide as well as keep them coming in the store, either in-store or online. And so we're thinking about both our digital activation, our in-store activation.

湯姆，這是迪安娜。謝謝你的提問。這對我們來說並不新鮮，儘管這可能是過去幾年的新現象，因為公司只是因為供應和需求旺盛而取消了促銷活動。所以這對我們來說並不新鮮。進行促銷活動以及與我們的基準業務保持平衡確實很正常，但在過去幾年中並不正常。因此，當我們重新進入促銷活動時，我們有機會真正進行戰略性思考，並利用我們的收入增長管理團隊和價格包架構工作來真正告知零售商並與零售商坐下來討論，我們如何做到這一點，這對我們雙方來說都是非常積極的。我們如何確保我們能夠滿足消費者並提醒消費者我們的產品。它們提供的價值以及讓它們持續進入商店（無論是在店內還是在網上）。因此，我們正在考慮數字激活和店內激活。

And it really goes beyond just a promotion or price point. We need to make sure that we have advertising in place as well. We need to make sure that we have innovation. So I point again to the Planters example where we have innovation, coupled with advertising and promotion in place and it's working. From other categories, we're really, again, as we re-enter promotional, trying to do it as smart as we can, I point to bacon. We've had a lot of good activity and growth in bacon this past year. We've had a cadence of promotional activity, a cadence of advertising, as well as we've got innovation coming in the bacon category that we're really excited about in 2024.

它確實不僅僅是促銷或價格點。我們需要確保我們也有適當的廣告。我們需要確保我們有創新。所以我再次提到 Planters 的例子，我們有創新，加上適當的廣告和促銷，而且它正在發揮作用。從其他類別來看，當我們重新進入促銷活動時，我們真的再次嘗試盡可能聰明地做到這一點，我指的是培根。去年，我們在培根方面取得了很多良好的進展和增長。我們有節奏的促銷活動、節奏的廣告，以及培根類別的創新，我們對 2024 年感到非常興奮。

And Tom, at an even higher level, Deanna gave you a great answer. When we said heightened competition at retail, I think it's fair to say that we are seeing demand normalizing to some more historical levels. Edible sales flat versus last year. Units have declined since 2019. And so as you've got that and supply chains have somewhat normalized, that I'm not going to say everywhere there's capacity, but there's probably some additional capacity in the industry and as fill rates get better, there's work to make sure that you're filling that up. So it's that at a higher level. And then to some of the specific activities that we're working on that Deanna talked about, that's really what we meant when we say heightened competition at retail.

湯姆，在更高的水平上，迪安娜給了你一個很好的答案。當我們談到零售業競爭加劇時，我認為可以公平地說，我們看到需求正在正常化到歷史水平。食用品銷量與去年持平。自2019 年以來，單位數量有所下降。因此，鑑於供應鏈已經在一定程度上正常化，我不會說到處都有產能，但行業中可能會有一些額外的產能，並且隨著填充率變得更好，會有努力確保你能填滿它。所以這是更高層次的。然後是迪安娜談到的我們正在開展的一些具體活動，這就是我們所說的零售業競爭加劇的真正含義。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson。

I guess the first question is trying to maybe clarify on tying the turkey comments, specifically. I think previously, I know Jennie-O is not a reported segment as such any more of a previously claimed turkey profitability in fiscal '23 as being roughly flat year-on-year. Is it fair to say that, that's a decent chunk of the outlook cut today is attributable to turkey, and so that is going to be down a decent amount year-on-year even with the volume recovery from HPAI.

我想第一個問題是試圖澄清有關火雞評論的具體內容。我認為之前，我知道 Jennie-O 不再是一個報告的細分市場，之前聲稱的 23 財年火雞盈利能力與去年同期大致持平。公平地說，今天展望下調的很大一部分是由於土耳其造成的，因此，即使 HPAI 的銷量有所恢復，同比下降的幅度也很大。

Yes. I think that's fair to say, Adam, is to be slightly down year-over-year. That's really due to some of these Q4 issues that we've talked about.

是的。我認為公平地說，亞當，同比略有下降。這實際上是由於我們討論過的一些第四季度問題造成的。

Okay. And I guess just to the Q4 point, I mean, the full year range, you've got one quarter left. The sales rate widened relative to your prior guidance, you have the EPS range narrowed. And I appreciate that maybe there was a pretty wide EPS range previously. But can you just help us understand kind of the puts and takes around, is it just the uncertainty on some of the commodity pork cuts and some of the turkey whole bird pricing. We've got much uncertainty on volume. And why wouldn't that revenue volatility kind of manifest in a wider EPS range? I'm just trying to make sure I understand kind of how the outlook has been recalibrated.

好的。我想就第四季度而言，我的意思是，在全年範圍內，還剩下四分之一。銷售率相對於您之前的指導擴大了，每股收益範圍縮小了。我很高興之前的每股收益範圍可能相當廣泛。但您能否幫助我們了解看跌期權和看跌期權的情況，這是否只是一些商品豬肉分割和一些火雞整隻雞定價的不確定性。我們在數量上有很多不確定性。為什麼這種收入波動不會在更大的每股收益範圍內體現出來呢？我只是想確保我了解前景是如何重新調整的。

So Adam, I'd say for all the reasons that Jim talked about in terms of just the dynamic that we're seeing here and just the volatility, that is exactly why we have the ranges that we have as we sit here at the moment.

因此，亞當，我想說，出於吉姆談到的所有原因，我們在這裡看到的動態和波動性，這正是我們目前坐在這裡的範圍的原因。

Okay. But that's certainly on revenue, but why would that change in revenue not fall to the earnings line? And why would it fall -- why would there be more volatility previously on the range of outcomes on earnings and less on revenue today. Just with 1 quarter left in the year. I'm just -- maybe it's a (inaudible).

好的。但這肯定是關於收入的，但為什麼收入的變化不會落入盈利線呢？為什麼它會下降——為什麼以前的收益結果範圍波動更大，而今天的收入波動更小。一年僅剩1個季度。我只是——也許這是一個（聽不清）。

All mix, right, all mix driven. You think about the mix between even from a commodity standpoint and where markets are priced, it really depends on what that mix looks like? I mean you could have it a drag on the top line where you have really strong volume hitting your top line and just depending on where markets are, doesn't necessarily fall through on your margin line.

所有混合，對，所有混合驅動。您甚至從大宗商品的角度考慮與市場定價之間的組合，這實際上取決於這種組合是什麼樣的？我的意思是，你可能會拖累你的營收，因為你有非常強勁的交易量觸及你的營收，並且僅僅取決於市場的位置，並不一定會低於你的利潤線。

There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to Jim Snee, CEO, for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我將把電話轉回給首席執行官吉姆·斯尼 (Jim Snee)，他將發表結束語。

Yes. Thank you. 2023 has certainly been a challenging year, but we continue to make great progress to addressing the near-term challenges. Our continued investments into our brands, our disciplined financial strategy, our continued balanced approach across our business all position us very well for future growth.

是的。謝謝。 2023 年無疑是充滿挑戰的一年，但我們在應對近期挑戰方面繼續取得巨大進展。我們對品牌的持續投資、嚴格的財務戰略、我們在整個業務中持續的平衡方法，都為我們未來的增長奠定了良好的基礎。

My sincere thanks to all the hard work being done by the Hormel team to set us up for future success. And I want to thank all of you for joining us this morning and hope that you all have a safe Labor Day weekend.

我衷心感謝荷美爾團隊為我們未來的成功所做的辛勤工作。我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們，並希望大家度過一個安全的勞動節週末。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for joining, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的加入，您現在可以斷開線路了。謝謝。