荷美爾 (HRL) 2012 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen.

  • Thank you for standing by.

  • Welcome to the Hormel Foods third-quarter earnings conference call.

  • During today's presentation, all parties will be in a listen-only mode.

  • Following the presentation, the conference will be open for questions.

  • (Operator Instructions).

  • This conference is being recorded today, August 23, 2012.

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Kevin Jones.

  • Please go ahead.

  • Kevin Jones

  • Thank you.

  • Good morning, everyone.

  • Welcome to the Hormel Foods conference call for the third quarter of fiscal 2012.

  • We released our results this morning before the market opened, around 6.30 AM Eastern time.

  • If you did not receive a copy of the release, you can find it on our website at www.hormelfoods.com under the Investor section.

  • On our call today is Jeff Ettinger, Chairman of the Board, President, and Chief Executive Officer; and Jody Feragen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

  • Jeff will provide a review of the operating results for the quarter, then Jody will provide detailed financial results for the quarter.

  • The line will be open for questions following Jody's remarks.

  • As a courtesy to the other analysts with questions, please limit your questions to one question and one follow-up.

  • If you have further questions, you can get back into the queue.

  • An audio replay of this call will be available beginning at 10.30 AM Central time today, August 23, 2012.

  • The dial-in number is 800-406-7325, and the access code is 4556709.

  • It will also be posted to our website and archived for one year.

  • Before we get started with the results of the quarter, I need to reference the Safe Harbor statement.

  • Some of the comments made today will be forward-looking and are made under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

  • Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the statements we will be making.

  • Among the factors that may affect the operating results of the Company are fluctuations in the cost and availability of raw materials and market conditions for finished products.

  • Please refer to the cautionary statement and risk factors on pages 30 through 36 in the Company's 10-Q for the quarter ended April 29, 2012, which was filed with the SEC on June 8, 2012, for more details.

  • It can be accessed on our website.

  • Now I'll turn the call over to Jeff.

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Thank you, Kevin.

  • Good morning, everyone.

  • We are pleased to report record earnings and sales for the third quarter.

  • Earnings for the quarter were $0.41 per share, up 14% from earnings of $0.36 a share a year ago.

  • All five segments registered gains in segment profit.

  • Total dollar sales topped $2 billion, an increase of 5% over a year ago, on solid volume growth of 4%.

  • I will now take you through each segment.

  • Our Grocery Products team delivered an operating profit increase of 32% and a dollar sales increase of 21% for the third quarter.

  • You may recall that we began including Don Miguel sales in our Grocery Products segment results this past quarter.

  • Sales for Grocery Products grew 3% excluding Don Miguel in the quarter.

  • Among the contributors to sales growth in this segment were our SPAM family of products, Hormel Compleats microwave meals, and our MegaMex portfolio.

  • For the SPAM family of products, our advertising campaign featuring Sir Can-A-Lot and the publicity around the 75th anniversary has contributed to the nice sales increase.

  • We were pleased to see growth by our Hormel Compleats microwave meals in Q3.

  • We are in the process of introducing additional new Compleats meals that feature cheesy pasta.

  • We also introduced some other new microwaveable items in the quarter, including SPAM meals and Hormel Sandwich Makers.

  • These new items have performed well in limited markets so far.

  • Sales of our Mexican food products continue to grow, led by Wholly Guacamole dips and by salsas and tortillas under both the Herdez and Chi-Chi's brands.

  • Segment operating profit for our Refrigerated Foods group increased by 7%, as higher sales of our value-added products were able to offset lower pork operating margins.

  • Sales were flat overall, but value-added sales continued to grow.

  • On the retail side, we enjoyed strong sales of Hormel Natural Choice deli meats, Hormel party trays, Hormel bacon and Hormel pepperoni.

  • Food service sales were also higher, led by sales of branded products such as Hormel Natural Choice deli meats, Hormel premium hams, and premium bacon.

  • Our Jennie-O Turkey Store segment had another solid quarter, with segment operating profit up 12% and sales up 7%.

  • Continued growth in sales of value-added products and an improved product mix more than offset higher grain prices and lower commodity meat prices during Q3.

  • Sales of our Jennie-O Turkey Store retail tray pack fresh turkey and our turkey burgers are still on the rise.

  • We will be building upon last year's highly successful Make The Switch advertising campaign with a new TV commercial this fall, this time featuring turkey bacon and sausage.

  • Stronger sales of whole birds also aided results this quarter for Jennie-O.

  • Our specialty foods segment had a very good quarter, achieving 18% growth in operating profit on a net sales increase of 11%.

  • Segment profit gains were driven by higher sales of nutritional products, private-label canned meats, and ingredients.

  • Our all other international segment delivered another strong quarter, with segment operating profit up 55%, while sales increased 2%.

  • Higher exports of our SPAM family of products and fresh pork were the primary drivers for this segment.

  • Moving into the fourth quarter, we do anticipate seasonally lower hog costs as we get into fall.

  • Pork operating margins have, thankfully, returned to positive territory lately, and we expect these margins to remain positive, though lower than a year ago, during the fourth quarter.

  • Jennie-O Turkey Store's Q4 margins will be impacted as we cycle in higher grain costs.

  • Our team at Jennie-O will continue to push for value-added sales growth and efficiency improvements in order to mitigate the impact of grain inflation.

  • We also expect strong contributions to our earnings growth from our Grocery Products and international teams based on their solid momentum from the third quarter.

  • Taking all of the significant factors into account, we are maintaining our fiscal 2012 guidance range of $1.79 to $1.89 per share.

  • The strength of our balanced business model and the vibrancy of our branded value-added portfolio should support continued sales and earnings growth as we close out fiscal 2012.

  • At this time I will turn the call over to Jody Feragen to discuss the financial information relating to the third quarter.

  • Jody Feragen

  • Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone.

  • For the third quarter of 2012, net earnings totaled $111.2 million or $0.41 per share, compared to $98.5 million or $0.36 per share a year ago.

  • Net earnings for the nine months of fiscal 2012 totaled $367.4 million or $1.37 per share, compared to net earnings of $356.9 million or $1.31 per share a year ago.

  • Dollar sales for the third quarter totaled $2 billion compared to $1.9 billion last year, a 5% increase.

  • For the nine months of fiscal 2012, dollar sales were up 5% to $6.1 billion.

  • Volume for the third quarter was 1.2 billion pounds, a 4% increase over fiscal 2011.

  • Year-to-date volume was 3.6 billion pounds, even with last year.

  • Selling, general, and administrative expenses in the third quarter were 7.2% of sales compared to 8.2% last year.

  • Year-to-date selling, general, and administrative expenses were 7.4% compared to 8% last year.

  • We expect selling, general, and administrative expenses to be approximately 7.5% of sales for the full year.

  • Interest and investment income was $844,000 for the third quarter compared to $139,000 last year.

  • Year-to-date interest and investment income was $4.8 million compared to $2.6 million a year ago.

  • Interest expense for the quarter was $3.2 million compared to $5.6 million last year, due to lower debt levels and lower interest rates.

  • Year-to-date interest expense was $9.7 million compared to $19.4 million last year.

  • We expect interest expense to be approximately $12 million to $14 million for fiscal 2012.

  • Our effective tax rate in the third quarter was 33.7% versus 29.3% in fiscal 2011.

  • Last year's tax rate for the third quarter was favorably impacted by the resolution of tax matters with various federal and state tax jurisdictions.

  • Year to date our effective tax rate was 33.5% compared to 33% last year.

  • For fiscal 2012 expect the effective tax rate to be between 33.5% and 34.5%.

  • The basic weighted average number of shares outstanding for the third quarter was 263 million.

  • The diluted weighted average number of shares outstanding for the third quarter was 269 million shares.

  • We repurchased 302,000 shares of common stock during the third quarter, spending $8.6 million.

  • We have 1.6 million shares remaining to be purchased from the current authorization in place.

  • Depreciation and amortization for the quarter was $28.9 million, down from $30.6 million last year.

  • For the nine months, depreciation and amortization was $88.6 million compared to $92.9 million last year.

  • We expect depreciation and amortization to be approximately $115 million for fiscal 2012.

  • Total long-term debt at the end of the quarter was $250 million, unchanged from last year.

  • Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $36 million compared to $20 million last year.

  • For the nine months, capital expenditures totaled $94 million compared to $63 million last year.

  • For fiscal 2012 we expect capital expenditures to be $120 million to $130 million.

  • At this time, I will turn the call over to the operator for the question-and-answer portion of the call.

  • Ian?

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Farha Aslam.

  • Farha Aslam - Analyst

  • I'd like to focus my questions really on Jennie-O.

  • The segment continues to perform very, very well -- particularly your price mix this quarter was very strong -- despite the fact that commodity turkey prices have been quite weak.

  • Do you anticipate turkey -- that division to continue to have positive price mix going forward, given the weakness that you've seen in commodity turkey?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Well, at this stage, we're just going to talk through the end of this fiscal year.

  • Farha Aslam - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Clearly, we were very pleased with Jennie-O's quarter in the third quarter -- not the huge gains year-over-year that we saw in Q1 and Q2, but to be expected, given about the pressure on the grain side and the pressures on the commodity meat side.

  • They do have excellent momentum in terms of their value-added products, and we expect Q4 to be more similar to Q3 in terms of their operating results.

  • Farha Aslam - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • Then I know you don't want to talk specifically about next year, but we have to address the current grain situation.

  • How do you think that is going to affect that division going forward?

  • Could you share with us a little bit about your grain positions?

  • Do you anticipate feeding wheat to your turkeys, and is that possible?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • I can't get into the latter question.

  • In terms of what the outlook is, clearly that will be part of the planning process for next year.

  • I mean, it is important to note in terms of the aggregate and looking at grain costs for the Jennie-O organization, that you have -- there is an effective hedge position.

  • There is an effect in terms of time to market for the turkeys, which for the Tom turkeys is 22 weeks, so there will be some lag effect in terms of the price increases that -- cost increases you have been seeing in the marketplace.

  • But clearly, that will be one of the major goals of that unit will be to do the best they can to balance off the significant cost increases on the grain side with the momentum they have been showing in value-added products, and with the efficiency gains they have been able to generate in their business.

  • Farha Aslam - Analyst

  • And then my final question would be regarding your cash position.

  • You have net cash on the balance sheet.

  • Do you think you're going to focus on M&A?

  • Are you focusing on working capital?

  • Will you increase your dividend?

  • Could you just share with us your priorities of cash?

  • Jody Feragen

  • Farha, this is Jody.

  • I certainly will.

  • Obviously, first is to invest in our business, and we've done a lot more of that through internal investment with our CapEx spending this year.

  • A portion of that was related to some general replacement, but we've also invested in some capacity expansions as well as technologies that are driving new product introductions.

  • We continue to focus on finding strategic M&A deals that would fit with us from both a strategic standpoint as well as being accretive -- and those would be both domestic and international.

  • And then, certainly, we have our continued obligations to our shareholders with our dividends as well as share repurchase.

  • So all those factor into our cash position.

  • We have invested in some working capital, and I would expect that to decrease as we go forward.

  • Farha Aslam - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • So you're making no changes in your cash allocations given the rise in grain prices?

  • Jody Feragen

  • We'll probably -- just the nature of Jennie-O is if they're holding higher grain prices, that will be reflective of their inventories.

  • We like to focus on making sure that we have the appropriate quantities of inventories.

  • Farha Aslam - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you very much.

  • Operator

  • Diane Geissler.

  • Diane Geissler - Analyst

  • I guess inquiring minds want to know why you kept the range so wide for the full year at $1.79 to $1.89.

  • Your commentary on the fourth quarter suggests you expect the fourth quarter to be up year on year, but the bottom end of the range gives you something around $0.42 versus last year's $0.43.

  • So I guess I'm a little conflicted about what you are trying to say about the fourth quarter, and why there is still such a wide range, a $0.10 range, given that you only have one quarter left.

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Sure.

  • I guess our philosophy on balance, Diane, was we really have been trying to operate on an annualized basis.

  • We moved away from giving quarterly guidance about three or four years ago.

  • And as reflected in both the release and in my comments at the beginning of the call, we do think we are tracking well toward that annual operating plan.

  • Our team is aligned against that plan.

  • Our incentive programs are based on the achievement of our results within that annual plan.

  • And so at this point, we just felt that that was the number that was important to focus on, both for external audiences and the internal audience, as to what we're trying to deliver.

  • And there certainly are opportunities, depending on what happens during the quarter, to be on the lower or upper end of that range.

  • But we felt it's still a comfortable area to have out there.

  • Diane Geissler - Analyst

  • Okay, I appreciate the clarification there.

  • And then on the Grocery Products, you are one of the few packaged food companies that is actually showing some volume lift.

  • So congratulations on that -- ex the Don Miguel.

  • Can you just talk about -- it sounds like Compleats was doing well.

  • That's kind of a higher-and product.

  • SPAM seems like more of a value-oriented product.

  • Can you talk about what you're seeing with the consumer base, what retailers are saying about the state of the consumer?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Sure.

  • For our items, we were very pleased with the breadth of the success of the Grocery Products results during Q3.

  • SPAM would probably traditionally be looked at as more of a value item, but with some of the excitement we've been able to build around that brand, both in-store and with our advertising and public relations effort, we're very pleased with the sales growth there.

  • We've been working hard to restore growth to Compleats, so it was very encouraging to see the upward trend in that market.

  • And then very good results from the Mexican portfolio.

  • The portfolio -- so forgetting Don Miguel for the moment, even the core items that had been part of MegaMex prior to that were up for the quarter, and so that is exhibiting good center-of-the-store performance.

  • And then Don Miguel and Wholly Guacamole are actually sold in different sections of the store, albeit still part of the Mexican portfolio, and Wholly Guacamole, in particular, had a very strong quarter.

  • So we have a lot of items that are connecting well with consumers overall.

  • I would agree that in talking with retailers, that's not the universal picture -- that there are certain categories that they're still experiencing some difficulty in terms of volume comparisons, but we focus on the categories we're in and trying to partner with them to figure out ways to keep connecting more with consumers with those.

  • Diane Geissler - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • So despite continued weakness with consumers, you don't see any reason to back off your long-term sales growth target of 5%?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Certainly for -- again, kind of going into the next quarter, we think the momentum Grocery Products has should continue into Q4.

  • And then we'll give whatever clarification we see out there as we provide 2013 guidance at the November call.

  • Diane Geissler - Analyst

  • Okay, great.

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Akshay Jagdale.

  • Akshay Jagdale - Analyst

  • Just wanted to follow up on turkey.

  • I know you don't want to talk too much specifically about 2013, but can you just help us frame fiscal 2013 in the context of, perhaps, fiscal 2008, when -- I guess there's some parallels being drawn there because of the increase in grain costs.

  • But I would like to get your perspective, generally, for the turkey industry and your business going into 2013 relative to, let's say, 2008.

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • I guess the best I can give you on that, Akshay, is we do believe there are significant changes in our own operating philosophy and performance between 2008 and what we expect to have in 2013.

  • We have been able to grow the brand significantly through the advertising campaign.

  • One of the hallmark franchises that is supported by that campaign and has a leading position in the marketplace would be our fresh product line.

  • Because of the strength of that, we've added on a new line in our Pelican Rapids facility.

  • That's one of the capital investments that Jody was referencing in her earlier comments.

  • And so, clearly, we wouldn't have added that line if we didn't think we had significant new business to be able to support that line.

  • On top of that, the team has just done a very good job all across the board in terms of driving efficiency gains, whether it's at the farm level, bringing the product into the plant, or in through the supply chain.

  • So we'll provide you with what we see as our best picture for that segment and for the total business when we do get to the November call.

  • But I do expect that that will be -- it's still going to be a significant jump up from 2008 levels.

  • Akshay Jagdale - Analyst

  • Okay, great.

  • And just one on the consumer in general.

  • I thought it was interesting that to your Compleats business did well this quarter.

  • I don't remember it being on the positive side as much as it was this quarter for a while.

  • Is there -- do you in your business and your products see a bifurcation in the consumer, where your SPAM business is doing well, but now it looks like Compleats is starting to do well again?

  • What are you really seeing from a consumer standpoint in terms of demand?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Well, it's been interesting, really, ever since the recession began to see the consumer dynamic against the franchise.

  • It doesn't -- at least for our portfolio, it doesn't split neatly into value consumers versus more affluent consumers, because we have seen great strength of items that you might consider value items, such as SPAM, or initially Hormel Chili, but we also have had excellent results from our party trays and Natural Choice items, which are probably aimed at a little bit more premium consumer.

  • Compleats is kind of in the middle in that regard.

  • It's -- I don't know that it's regarded as an ultra-value item nor as a premium item.

  • What we have found is the packaged meal subsegment has been a little bit more of a struggle since the recession began.

  • And we've seen that both in Hormel Compleats and then our Hormel refrigerated entrees.

  • So the effort then becomes, okay, how do you gain more households, and how do you connect more with those items?

  • And so for Compleats, it has been a multi-faceted approach of new advertising, new package designs, segmenting the line into the red, blue, and green varieties -- new flavor varieties -- some that are already in the market, and the others that we're coming out with, such as our new Cheesy Pasta items.

  • So the mission is just to keep growing that franchise.

  • And we really don't see any reason why that can't happen.

  • It still has very low household penetration.

  • It's a convenience item in a convenience world.

  • With our balanced model of being able to deliver both protein and packaged food, we're though ones delivering a simple, one-step product that has the protein component and other components in it.

  • And so we're still very high on the line in the long run, and we're very pleased with the Q3 results.

  • Akshay Jagdale - Analyst

  • Great.

  • I'll pass it on.

  • Thanks a lot.

  • Operator

  • Jonathan Feeney.

  • Mark Williams - Analyst

  • This is Mark Williams on for John.

  • I wanted to ask about your -- I was surprised by the magnitude of profit expansion in Grocery.

  • Can you just talk about the drivers there and what drove that?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • The grocery portfolio, if you look at it over the last three, four years, has had a swing, a couple of hundred basis points over the longer haul off and on, based somewhat on inputs and someone on mix.

  • They had some fairly significant stresses on the input side in prior quarters, and those improved during the most recent quarter.

  • And then over time, we have seen the solid growth of some of the key items that have been helping a lot as well.

  • SPAM is a great item for us, as well as the Mexican portfolio.

  • Mark Williams - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • And could you please provide your outlook on the turkey supply and pricing dynamics, and what you see going forward?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Okay.

  • Well, it's probably somewhat in flux.

  • When we last talked, grain was at a quite different level than when we're talking three months later.

  • And so I would imagine the other participants within the industry are probably looking at that and making decisions as to what they think their appropriate production levels are.

  • They're clearly -- there have been a couple of expansions in the industry that are probably going to go forward.

  • They were already in the midst of building plants and adding onto farms.

  • But beyond that, I would assume every business has to assess, okay, what's your profitability picture with this kind of a grain environment?

  • At Jennie-O Turkey Store, we've tried to keep supplies tight.

  • It really fits well with our emphasis on the value-added branded items.

  • And in terms of that outlook, we would anticipate we'll continue to maintain that kind of tightness.

  • We need enough meat to support the growth of the value-added items, but we're not looking to have a lot of surplus meat to sell on the commodity market.

  • Mark Williams - Analyst

  • Great.

  • And my last question pertains to the pork cut-out margin.

  • As you noted, that has expanded some in recent weeks.

  • Do you see that as a temporary phenomenon driven by, maybe, some farmers that can't afford the cost of feed, that are sending their hogs to slaughter?

  • Or do you see that as a more durable driver?

  • Jody Feragen

  • This is Jody.

  • I'll try to handle that one.

  • Yes, thankfully, they have turned to be positive from quite negative averages over the previous quarters.

  • Hog supply seasonally is stronger in the Fall -- just kind of the nature of that industry -- so we would expect that to continue into the fourth quarter.

  • We would expect the spread between the hog costs and the USDA cut-out to be positive.

  • Probably not as positive as it was in the fourth quarter of 2011.

  • Mark Williams - Analyst

  • Great.

  • Thank you for answering my questions.

  • Operator

  • Tim Ramey.

  • Tim Ramey - Analyst

  • Congratulations on a great quarter.

  • Jody, I don't know -- did you say what your hedge position looks like now relative to either corn or hogs?

  • Jody Feragen

  • We hedge our grain input for Jennie-O.

  • And as we indicated on the call last quarter, for -- our range is typically the 25% to 75%, and for fiscal 2012 we're kind of in the middle, if you will.

  • Tim Ramey - Analyst

  • Are you experiencing -- certainly the Minnesota farmer is experiencing a better crop than on average.

  • How is that impacting you?

  • Is that helping basis, or how do you think about that?

  • Jody Feragen

  • We have seen in some tightening of the basis, so I don't know that it has been as big a benefit as maybe in prior years.

  • But you're right, the crops up here do appear better than the ones that have been noted in the southern part of the states.

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • They are also not in yet.

  • So often, a basis can really swing more on true delivery and what kind of spread there is.

  • The other wildcard to basis this year is going to be traffic on the Mississippi River, and if there's some constriction there in terms of the ability to ship, that could make a difference, as well.

  • Tim Ramey - Analyst

  • Got you.

  • Okay, thanks so much.

  • Operator

  • Christine McCracken.

  • Christine McCracken - Analyst

  • Good morning.

  • I know you don't want to talk about the forward outlook, but I'm just wondering, with the increases that we're seeing in grains, and then presumably in the proteins, I'm wondering if you're having conversations with your customers relative to pricing.

  • How far in advance do you have those discussions, especially as you look at annual contracting and expectations for 2013?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Well, to the extent we engage in annual contracting, which would be limited more to certain areas of the food service business, then yes, we're clearly reflecting our best expectation of what markets are going to be both for the protein and for the input.

  • That's not a huge percentage of our overall business, though.

  • In terms of retail pricing, absent the market-based items -- whole turkeys, and bacon, and fresh pork, we really don't have any current announcements to make in terms of pricing.

  • But clearly, that will be one of the team's overall assessments that we have to make as we complete our planning process here, is what do we see as the likely cost input level for different commodities and for different products?

  • And what are we going to do to either mitigate those, or in terms of pricing, reflect those in the area of pricing?

  • Christine McCracken - Analyst

  • Are you getting the sense that -- how quickly could you adjust those?

  • Is it 30, 60 days kind of pricing adjustment?

  • Or is it longer?

  • I'm just wondering -- when we look back at when we've seen this kind of cost inflation in the past, it's always been about the pass-through pricing, resistance to pricing, and how quickly we can get it through.

  • I'm just wondering if you get in front of it this time, then -- ?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • From a retail standpoint, 60 days is probably not a bad rule of thumb in terms of the kind of notice, and making sure you honor your features, and so forth.

  • But you have to have, again, absent those market items that move on a more aggressive basis.

  • There's a lot of things to weigh in terms of timing.

  • One example you probably -- that's been talked about in the marketplace has been some level of liquidation on the beef side.

  • So in the short run, the cost inputs on beef may not be up at all.

  • So we would not, obviously, be then walking in and looking for price increases related to those items until it was needed to be reflecting in the cost.

  • But that's all part of what we'll need to weigh when we establish our plan.

  • Christine McCracken - Analyst

  • All right.

  • And just one more technical question.

  • Your receivables were up in the quarter.

  • Anything specific behind that, Jody?

  • Jody Feragen

  • No, I wouldn't say there was anything specific behind that.

  • Christine McCracken - Analyst

  • All right.

  • Thanks.

  • Operator

  • Ken Zaslow.

  • Ken Zaslow - Analyst

  • Just going on Refrigerated Foods a little bit, your profitability was a little bit higher than we expected, and despite the whole wheat, fresh pork margin.

  • But it sounds like it was driven by the value-added side of it.

  • So if the improvement and fresh pork is going to be a little bit more sustainable, and assuming that your value-added portfolio is not going to decrease, it's going to continue going in the same right direction, why wouldn't your refrigerated profitability in the fourth quarter, at least the margin structure, continue on this path, given that you have this somewhat tailwind on the improvement in the fresh pork, and assuming the value-added stays the same?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Well, there's some logic to that.

  • The comp of the pork cut-out from last year was really quite favorable in Q4.

  • And although it's improved from negative, it's still a lot lower than what last year was.

  • I would agree on the momentum side in terms of the value-added products.

  • We were very pleased with a wide array of the retail items being up, up for the quarter and having a really good year.

  • So overall, that is the game plan for Refrigerated Foods, is to drive growth through their food service and meat product segments, and to then respond as well as they can to what happens in the cut-out arena.

  • Ken Zaslow - Analyst

  • But even in the third quarter, the profitability was higher year over year, but the fresh pork was obviously much lower year over year.

  • I guess --

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • That's correct, I mean --

  • Ken Zaslow - Analyst

  • Is there something more going on -- it seems like there's something maybe going on a little bit more structurally.

  • Is that a fair point?

  • That maybe that we shouldn't be looking at the fresh pork margin as much anymore?

  • It just seems like the fresh pork margin for the quarter -- to say that it's completely impossible is dismal at best.

  • So I'm just trying to figure out -- you guys did not have that impact on your earnings.

  • I'm just trying to figure out why, and is it more sustainable, and that we should think of it more like what has happened on the turkey side since 2008, as well?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Well, this hasn't been from our doing, but what does seem to have changed structurally is that we are even having to talk about cut-out margins.

  • Because it used to be they were just a fairly benign -- you didn't expect to make much money in that part of the business, but that was part of the assets you had to invest in order to control your own supply.

  • They've been very volatile over -- not just this year, over the last several years.

  • So on any given quarter -- I may have to ask Kevin to do a little follow-up with you on that, but a lot of it can be, well, what are the comps?

  • The first two quarters of comps were just breathtaking.

  • They were extremely positive the year before, and then they swung to extremely negative this year.

  • We've had good value-added results all year long.

  • I think those were shrouded by that huge swing in the first half, and then they were able to emerge and at least deliver some growth in Q3.

  • We're hoping to see somewhat along those same lines in Q4.

  • Jody Feragen

  • And I guess to follow up to Jeff's comments, fourth quarter of 2011, I think the pork P&L margin was close to $8, and we're not certainly seeing those today.

  • So you have got more difficult comps last year.

  • Ken Zaslow - Analyst

  • But you had the same comp comparison in the third quarter, no?

  • Relative comp comparison.

  • I'll take it off-line.

  • It just seemed like it was a much better result, and it seems like there is something underlying it.

  • I'll take it off-line.

  • Operator

  • Ann Gurkin.

  • Ann Gurkin - Analyst

  • Wonder if you can help me understand something.

  • What is the potential or likelihood that you could get, in your term, tailwind, from lower pork input prices?

  • I mean, have you locked those prices, or is there opportunity to take advantage if there are a number of hogs brought to market, and if we see this -- prices decline near term, what is the possibility of that positively helping you all?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • We haven't historically taken a lot of positions on the pork side, in contrast to what Jody explained on the cost side, for grain inputs for Jennie-O.

  • That's one of a number things the team can assess over time as to whether they think we ought to treat that differently given certain market dynamics.

  • But we don't have anything to announce in that regard right now.

  • Ann Gurkin - Analyst

  • But is it -- could you potentially have a tailwind here in the near term?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • You know, I --

  • Jody Feragen

  • If pork input costs are lower, traditionally, that helps some of our value-added franchises.

  • But there's a lot of moving parts that go along with it.

  • Ann Gurkin - Analyst

  • Okay, fair enough.

  • And then in terms of food service, any change to how you approach that business over the next 12 months?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • No; we really like our strategy in regard to food service.

  • With the core Hormel food service unit, it's all about their branded items, and finding solutions for operators.

  • They continue to do a great job of connecting with both the commercial and noncommercial segments with those items.

  • And then we also have strong food service components within both the specialty, Jennie-O, and international.

  • And those were experiencing reasonable results as well.

  • Ann Gurkin - Analyst

  • Great.

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Mark Warner.

  • Mark Warner - Private Investor

  • This is a bit of an odd question, but with the lack of demand, perhaps, for Europe for pork products or beef products, do you all have an alternate source for the pork, especially, from maybe South America or somewhere else, where it would be cost efficient for you all to use that in your processing versus growing your own swine, turkey, et cetera?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • I can't really talk to what the industry would think of that.

  • I can just tell you, though, that that's not our model, both for Jennie-O and for the Hormel operation.

  • They're domestic-based operations that we have either ownership positions or long-term contracts in place to provide our plants with a domestic source.

  • And that is how we intend to continue to run the business.

  • Kevin Jones

  • Mark, this is Kevin Jones.

  • Could I bother you to tell us who you are with?

  • Mark Warner - Private Investor

  • I'm just an individual investor, but I just know enough about farming, even though I'm not a farmer, to know if this situation continues here -- I'm actually in the horse business.

  • And I know the cost of feed price is going up.

  • So my concern as a stockholder is long term, if you all are looking to maybe expand that model and try and get proteins from elsewhere -- because I've seen what's happened to feed prices feeding horses.

  • Kevin Jones

  • Okay, well, thank you for your question, Mark.

  • Operator, we can go to the next questioner.

  • Operator

  • Alan Brochstein.

  • Alan Brochstein - Analyst

  • Jody, it seems like every quarter you get the same question and give the same answer on capital.

  • And the only difference is it just -- your cash balances get bigger and bigger.

  • I was wondering on that front, you talk about the potential for acquisitions.

  • Have you had any serious discussions?

  • Is that something that we can expect in the next three months to six months?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Alan, can I just interject, could you please help me know where -- I missed your last name.

  • Alan Brochstein - Analyst

  • I'm sorry, it is Alan Brochstein.

  • Kevin, I visited you two years ago.

  • I am with AB Analytical.

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Okay, thanks.

  • Alan Brochstein - Analyst

  • Sorry about that.

  • Did you hear the question, Jody?

  • Jody Feragen

  • Yes, I did, and I really can't comment about any acquisitions at this point in time.

  • Alan Brochstein - Analyst

  • So given that remains a long-term strategy, but it seems like for the last few years, your acquisitions really haven't used that much capital, what is your thought about a one-time dividend to shareholders, given how high your cash balances have gotten?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • I wouldn't disagree with your comment about not using a lot of capital, but we have had some very beneficial acquisitions over the past few years.

  • Just tonight, in fact, we're going to be celebrating the retirement of Bill Burke.

  • We bought the Burke operation five years ago.

  • That has been an outstanding addition to our Refrigerated Foods portfolio.

  • We've created our MegaMex venture and made two other acquisitions there, the Don Miguel and Wholly Guacamole lines.

  • We added Country Crock to our portfolio of refrigerated items.

  • And those have all been really great additions.

  • We're always active and looking in multiple areas for potential things that could fit the growth model of Hormel Foods, but acquisitions -- at least from our experience, by their nature, they don't just come when you want them.

  • They tend to come in spurts.

  • You put a lot of feelers out there, and it's up to whether there is a meeting of the minds as to timing and price, and a lot of things.

  • So we intend to continue to pursue various ways to grow our business.

  • Acquisitions is one of them.

  • New product innovation is another, and we continue to have success there.

  • We do have to spend money to add on to our plants and buy new technology to support growth as well, as I mentioned, at our Jennie-O facility.

  • I think we've mentioned on past calls.

  • If at some point we're sitting and our cash position is mounting to $1 billion and it's just not going anywhere, then maybe we'll have to make a different assessment as to how we have handled our cash management practices.

  • But we're not ready to push that button at this time.

  • Alan Brochstein - Analyst

  • Well, maybe I can ask one more final question on this.

  • And maybe it's too technical, but you guys have a modifier on your short-term bonuses that -- by the way, I think you guys have an exceptional compensation plan, as an aside.

  • But this modifier basically penalizes you -- or it takes into account the capital that you use.

  • But as I read it, I don't think that there's any penalty for holding cash.

  • Is that an accurate assessment, or should I follow up with that offline?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • That's correct.

  • We have modifiers in place, both for segments and for the total Company.

  • We manage total cash at a total Company level, so the modifier at the segments, clearly, would not have that be a factor.

  • And at the total Company level, our assessment has been that there's a very tight number of people that really have any decision-making authority over cash, and that it just really wouldn't be an appropriate element to have in there for the total Company to be weighed off of.

  • Alan Brochstein - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • Well, thanks a lot for answering my questions, and good luck with that turkey and the corn, and all that.

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions).

  • Diane Geissler, please go ahead.

  • Diane Geissler - Analyst

  • Tyson has had a pretty good strategy with being short to the market in the chicken business, and that's been -- they've done some pretty good margins on the value-added side.

  • Just wondering, what is your outlook for turkey?

  • You talked about you didn't want to have a lot of commodity meat exposure, but is that a strategy that you think you could pursue -- let other people raise it at $8 a bushel on corn, and then you buy it on the commodity market and value-add?

  • Jeff Ettinger

  • Well, it's not something we're looking at on a broad-scale basis, because you make long-term commitments and put assets in place.

  • But in any given year, yes, there's a certain level of fluctuation that within your system you can tolerate.

  • And I think that is, indeed -- that would be part of the equation that the Jennie-O team would be studying next year, is if you have any incremental questions as to how many eggs are pulled -- put in the system, if you can do better buying from someone else at certain times of the year, that's something they definitely should entertain.

  • Diane Geissler - Analyst

  • Okay.

  • All right.

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • Thank you.

  • And we have no further questions at this time.

  • I'll turn it back to Kevin Jones for any closing remarks.

  • Kevin Jones

  • Thank you for all of your questions and your interest in our Company.

  • Please feel free to follow up with me with any follow-up questions that might occur to you.

  • This is Kevin Jones, again.

  • And otherwise, everyone have a great day.