惠普 (HPQ) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. And welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2019 HP Inc. Earnings Conference Call. My name is Gary, and I'll be your conference moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

今天是個好日子。歡迎來到 HP Inc. 2019 年第四季。收益電話會議。我叫加里，我將擔任今天電話會議的會議主持人。（操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製以供重播之用。

I would now like to turn the call over to Beth Howe, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Beth Howe。請繼續。

Good afternoon. I'm Beth Howe, Head of Investor Relations for HP Inc., and I'd like to welcome you to the fiscal 2019 fourth quarter earnings conference call with Enrique Lores, HP's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Steve Fieler, HP's Chief Financial Officer.

午安.我是 HP Inc. 投資者關係主管 Beth Howe，歡迎您參加由 HP 總裁兼執行長 Enrique Lores 主持的 2019 財年第四季財報電話會議。以及惠普財務長史蒂夫·菲勒(Steve Fieler)。

Before handing the call over to Enrique, let me remind you that this call is being webcast. A replay of the webcast will be made available on our website shortly after the call for approximately 1 year. We posted the earnings release and the accompanying slide presentation on our Investor Relations website at investor.hp.com.

在將通話轉交給恩里克之前，讓我提醒您，此通話正在網路上直播。網路廣播的重播將在電話會議後不久在我們的網站上提供，時間約為一年。我們在投資者關係網站 Investor.hp.com 上發布了收益報告和隨附的幻燈片簡報。

As always, elements of this presentation are forward-looking and are based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. For more detailed information, please see disclaimers in the earnings materials relating to forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. For a discussion of some of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, please refer to HP's SEC reports, including our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q. HP assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements.

與往常一樣，本簡報的內容具有前瞻性，並且基於我們對當今世界和業務的最佳看法。欲了解更多詳細信息，請參閱收益資料中與涉及風險、不確定性和假設的前瞻性陳述相關的免責聲明。有關其中一些風險、不確定性和假設的討論，請參閱 HP 的 SEC 報告，包括我們最新的表格 10-K 和表格 10-Q。惠普不承擔任何義務，也不打算更新任何此類前瞻性聲明。

We also note that the financial information discussed on this call reflects the estimates based on information available now and could differ materially from the amounts ultimately reported in HP's Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended October 31, 2019, and HP's other SEC filings.

我們也注意到，本次電話會議討論的財務資訊反映了基於​​現有資訊的估計，可能與惠普截至2019 年10 月31 日的財年10-K 表格以及惠普其他SEC 文件中最終報告的金額存在重大差異。

During this webcast, unless otherwise specifically noted, all comparisons are year-over-year comparisons with the corresponding year ago period. For financial information that has been expressed on a non-GAAP basis, we've included reconciliations to the comparable GAAP information. Please refer to the tables and slide presentation accompanying today's earnings release for those reconciliations.

在本次網路直播中，除非另有特別說明，所有比較均為與去年同期的同比比較。對於以非 GAAP 基礎表述的財務訊息，我們已包含可比較 GAAP 資訊的調整。請參閱今天收益發布所附的表格和幻燈片演示，以了解這些對帳情況。

And now I'll turn it over to Enrique.

現在我將把它交給恩里克。

Thank you, Beth, and thank you for joining us today. HP delivered another strong earnings quarter, reflecting the strength of our innovation and execution, the progress we are making against our strategic priorities and the multiple value-creation engines across our company.

謝謝你，貝絲，也謝謝你今天加入我們。惠普再次實現強勁的獲利季度，反映出我們的創新和執行力、我們在策略重點方面所取得的進展以及整個公司的多個價值創造引擎。

In Q4, we grew revenue 2% in constant currency. We grew non-GAAP operating profit dollars 5%, and we delivered non-GAAP EPS of $0.60, an increase of 11% and above our guided range. This represents the ninth consecutive quarter where we have grown revenue, non-GAAP OP dollars and non-GAAP EPS. The fourth quarter capped off a very solid year in which we exceeded our targets for non-GAAP EPS growth and free cash flow. Our strategy is working, and we are confident about our business outlook heading into fiscal year '20.

第四季度，以固定匯率計算，我們的營收成長了 2%。我們的非 GAAP 營業利潤成長了 5%，非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.60 美元，成長了 11%，超出了我們的指導範圍。這是我們連續第九個季度實現收入、非 GAAP 營業收入和非 GAAP 每股盈餘的成長。第四季結束了非常堅實的一年，我們超越了非公認會計準則每股收益成長和自由現金流的目標。我們的策略正在發揮作用，我們對進入 20 財年的業務前景充滿信心。

For the full FY '19, we grew revenue 2% in constant currency, our third consecutive year of growth. We grew non-GAAP EPS 11% with double-digit increases for the last 2 years. We generated $4 billion in free cash flow, above our full year outlook, and we returned 85% of that to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

2019 財年全年，以固定匯率計算，我們的營收成長了 2%，這是我們連續第三年成長。過去 2 年，我們的非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長了 11%，成長率達到兩位數。我們產生了 40 億美元的自由現金流，高於全年預期，其中 85% 透過股票回購和股息返還給股東。

We continue to lead in our core market with strong, disciplined execution, finishing the year shipping roughly 1 in every 4 PC units and 2 out of every 5 printers. These results demonstrate that we have multiple levers to drive operating profit dollars and create shareholder value.

我們憑藉強大、嚴格的執行力繼續在核心市場保持領先地位，年底出貨量約為每 4 台 PC 中就有 1 台，每 5 台印表機中就有 2 台。這些結果表明，我們擁有多種槓桿來推動營業利潤並創造股東價值。

And I want to be very clear, our focus remains on creating value for all of our shareholders and delivering for our customers, partners and employees. I have great confidence in the strategy that we shared at our Securities Analyst Meeting. It is confirmed by the progress we have already started to make in the 5 key strategic moves I laid out.

我想明確表示，我們的重點仍然是為所有股東創造價值，並為我們的客戶、合作夥伴和員工提供服務。我對我們在證券分析師會議上分享的策略充滿信心。我們已經開始在我提出的 5 項關鍵策略措施中取得的進展證實了這一點。

Let me recap each of them and share initial examples of the progress we are making. The first move is implementing a new operating model and driving digital transformation. On November 1, we went live with our new operating model and the creation of a single commercial organization to simplify our go-to-market structure. We have taken out the regional layer of the organization. This helped us to reduce costs, accelerate decision-making and be closer to customers.

讓我回顧一下其中的每一個，並分享我們正在取得的進展的初步例子。第一步是實施新的營運模式並推動數位轉型。11 月 1 日，我們啟用了新的營運模式，並創建了一個單一的商業組織，以簡化我們的上市結構。我們已經取消了該組織的區域層。這有助於我們降低成本、加快決策速度並拉近與客戶的距離。

We have also introduced a new business management system to streamline accountability. Second, we are delivering new compute experiences. HP is delivering the best innovation in the market. Recently, we launched our lightest commercial notebook, the Elite Dragonfly. With an ultra-bright screen and HP Sure View privacy, this device is purpose-built for the modern workforce, which demands flexibility to work anywhere. It is also the world's first laptop made using ocean-bound plastic, reflecting our continued commitment to environmental sustainability. It's another example of how we continue to set new standards in the PC category.

我們也引進了新的業務管理系統來簡化問責制。其次，我們正在提供新的運算體驗。惠普正在提供市場上最好的創新。最近，我們推出了最輕的商用筆記型電腦——Elite Dragonfly。該裝置配備超亮螢幕和 HP Sure View 隱私功能，專為需要靈活隨時隨地工作的現代化員工而打造。它也是世界上第一台使用海洋塑膠製成的筆記型電腦，體現了我們對環境永續發展的持續承諾。這是我們如何繼續在 PC 類別中樹立新標準的另一個例子。

In addition, we continue to strengthen our commitment to security with the acquisition of Bromium, an innovator in endpoint security. Our belief is that every device decision is a security decision. With Bromium, we will be able to provide comprehensive protection against the most sophisticated malware and enhance our firmware and BIOS security layers.

此外，透過收購端點安全領域的創新者 Bromium，我們持續加強對安全的承諾。我們的信念是，每個設備決策都是安全決策。借助 Bromium，我們將能夠針對最複雜的惡意軟體提供全面的保護，並增強我們的韌體和 BIOS 安全層。

Third, we are evolving print business models. Our contractual business continued to grow, with MPS and Instant Ink up double digits. And with over [5 million] subscribers, the momentum in Instant Ink continues to build. At the same time, our big ink and big toner products extended their rollout, launching in Latin America and Central Europe. Importantly, the new transactional business model we introduced at SAM, which offers customers either a flexible or a full end-to-end HP system, is on track to launch new products by the end of fiscal year '20. And remember, this model will evolve over time.

第三，我們正在不斷發展印刷業務模式。我們的合約業務持續成長，MPS 和 Instant Ink 業務成長了兩位數。Instant Ink 擁有超過 [500 萬] 訂閱者，其動能持續增強。同時，我們的大墨水和大碳粉產品擴大了推廣範圍，在拉丁美洲和中歐推出。重要的是，我們在 SAM 推出的新交易業務模式為客戶提供靈活或完整的端對端 HP 系統，並預計在 20 財年末推出新產品。請記住，這個模型會隨著時間的推移而演變。

Fourth, we are expanding our industrial businesses. In graphics, we see steady growth in pages printed. In fiscal year '19, in 3D and digital manufacturing, we more than doubled the number of parts produced with over [18 million] final production parts across a widening range of applications. We remain on track to double the number of parts by the end of fiscal year '20. And we just helped Volkswagen produce 10,000 precision metal parts in just a few weeks to support the launch of their ID.3 electric vehicle. And finally, we are executing on our restructuring. We have initiated a voluntary early retirement program in the United States, and the take rate increases my confidence in our ability to deliver on our savings goal.

四是做大工業業務。在圖形方面，我們看到列印的頁數穩定成長。在 19 財年，在 3D 和數位製造領域，我們生產的零件數量增加了一倍多，最終生產零件超過 [1,800 萬] 個，應用範圍更廣。我們仍有望在 20 財年末將零件數量增加一倍。我們剛剛幫助大眾汽車在短短幾週內生產了 10,000 個精密金屬零件，以支持其 ID.3 電動車的推出。最後，我們正在執行重組。我們在美國啟動了一項自願提前退休計劃，接受率增強了我對我們實現儲蓄目標能力的信心。

Let me now make a few comments on our business segment performance. In Q4, Personal Systems delivered another strong performance of revenue, operating profit and share growth. Revenue grew 5% in constant currency and operating profit increased 48%.

現在讓我對我們業務部門的業績發表一些評論。第四季度，個人系統在收入、營業利潤和份額成長方面再次表現強勁。以固定匯率計算，營收成長 5%，營業利潤成長 48%。

These results reinforce the strength of our innovation and disciplined execution against our strategy. We continued to outperform the PC market with broad-based growth across all regions and product categories. In calendar Q3, we grew faster than our competitors, gaining 1.2 points of share. While we are proud of these results, share gain continues to be an outcome, not an objective. We are delivering these results despite the ongoing industry constraints on CPU capacity, which are now expected to continue into the first half of 2020 and to be more impactful in Q1.

這些結果增強了我們的創新實力和嚴格執行策略的實力。我們的表現持續跑贏個人電腦市場，所有地區和產品類別均廣泛成長。在日曆第三季度，我們的成長速度快於競爭對手，獲得了 1.2 個百分點的份額。雖然我們對這些結果感到自豪，但份額成長仍然是結果，而不是目標。儘管 CPU 產能持續受到產業限制，但我們仍取得了這些成果，目前預計這種情況將持續到 2020 年上半年，並在第一季產生更大影響。

Turning to Print, we continue to execute our strategy. In Q4, total revenue declined 5% in constant currency. As we had anticipated, Supplies revenue remained soft. We're executing against both the operational and strategic plans we laid out in prior quarters. And as we said, into fiscal year '20, we expect our new commercial organization will drive better global best practices and consistency in Supplies execution. In fact, elements of the design and implementation of the new commercial organization are expressly focused on addressing some of the operational issues and leadership changes in EMEA.

轉向印刷，我們繼續執行我們的策略。以固定匯率計算，第四季總營收下降了 5%。正如我們預期的那樣，耗材收入依然疲軟。我們正在執行前幾季制定的營運和策略計劃。正如我們所說，進入 20 財年，我們預計新的商業組織將推動更好的全球最佳實踐和供應執行的一致性。事實上，新商業組織的設計和實施要素明確地專注於解決歐洲、中東和非洲地區的一些營運問題和領導層變動。

As always, maximizing the value of our installed base is a core objective. We are driving preference for HP original supplies with targeted marketing campaigns that ensures that customers understand the quality, sustainability and security benefits of HP original supplies compared to the alternative.

像往常一樣，最大化我們已安裝基礎的價值是我們的核心目標。我們透過針對性的行銷活動來推動人們對惠普原廠耗材的偏好，確保客戶了解惠普原廠耗材與替代品相比的品質、永續性和安全優勢。

We expect the combination of these actions to show improvement as we get further into fiscal year '20, and we remain focused on maximizing the value of our installed base.

我們預計，隨著進入 20 財年，這些行動的結合將顯示出改進，並且我們仍然專注於最大限度地提高已安裝基礎的價值。

In graphics, we recently closed another key win with ePac Flexible Packaging for an additional 24 HP Indigo digital presses as they continue the disruption of the global flexible packaging market.

在圖形方面，我們最近透過 ePac 軟包裝贏得了另一項重大勝利，購買了額外的 24 台 HP Indigo 數位印刷機，因為它們繼續擾亂全球軟包裝市場。

Looking at 3D and digital manufacturing, we finished the year strong. Our business continues to grow, and the market acceptance of our new industrial 5200 solution has been positive. We are expanding our alliance ecosystem and building in production applications across key verticals, including automotive, industrial, consumer and health care.

就 3D 和數位製造而言，我們今年表現強勁。我們的業務持續成長，我們的新型工業 5200 解決方案得到了市場的積極認可。我們正在擴大我們的聯盟生態系統，並在汽車、工業、消費者和醫療保健等關鍵垂直領域建立生產應用程式。

I am pleased with our progress and look forward to delivering even more disruptive solutions in fiscal year '20. In closing, we delivered another good quarter, demonstrating our track record of execution. These results and the progress we are making gives me confidence in our strategy and the upside opportunities HP has for even greater value creation. Our plans to advance, disrupt and transform provide us with 3 powerful engines of value creation and supports a clear and compelling investment thesis.

我對我們的進展感到滿意，並期待在 20 財年提供更具顛覆性的解決方案。最後，我們又交付了一個出色的季度，展示了我們的執行記錄。這些結果和我們正在取得的進展讓我對我們的策略以及惠普創造更大價值的上升機會充滿信心。我們的推進、顛覆和轉型計劃為我們提供了三個強大的價值創造引擎，並支援清晰且令人信服的投資主題。

We believe that the powerful combination of our scale, channel reach and incredible brand, combined with our track record of execution and innovation, will create significant value for our customers and our shareholders.

我們相信，我們的規模、管道覆蓋範圍和令人難以置信的品牌的強大結合，加上我們的執行和創新記錄，將為我們的客戶和股東創造巨大的價值。

Now before I turn the call over to Steve, let me note that we will not be expanding on our previous public comments with regards to Xerox's proposal. Accordingly, we ask that you please keep your questions focused on the business and our results during the Q&A portion of this call as we will not be commenting on Xerox or its proposal.

現在，在我將電話轉給史蒂夫之前，請允許我指出，我們不會擴展先前有關施樂提案的公開評論。因此，我們要求您在本次電話會議的問答部分中將問題集中在業務和我們的業績上，因為我們不會對施樂或其提案發表評論。

Now I will turn it over to Steve to go through more detail and provide our financial outlook.

現在我將把它交給史蒂夫來詳細說明並提供我們的財務前景。

Thanks, Enrique. Q4 was a solid finish to FY '19, where we once again demonstrated our ability to consistently deliver company results, posting growth in revenue, non-GAAP operating profit and EPS.

謝謝，恩里克。第四季是 19 財年的堅實收官，我們再次證明了我們持續交付公司業績的能力，實現了收入、非 GAAP 營業利潤和每股收益的成長。

Before diving further into Q4, let me quickly recap FY '19 for the full year. We grew revenue, we grew non-GAAP operating profit dollars faster than revenue and we grew non-GAAP EPS even faster. These results show the strength of our financial model.

在進一步深入討論第四季之前，讓我快速回顧一下 19 財年的全年情況。我們的收入成長，非公認會計原則營業利潤的成長速度快於收入，非公認會計原則的每股盈餘成長速度甚至更快。這些結果顯示了我們財務模型的實力。

For the full year, constant currency revenue was up 2%, non-GAAP operating profit dollars grew 3%, with operating margin rate expansion in both Print and Personal Systems. Print grew margins by 10 basis points to 16%, while PS grew 120 basis points to 4.9%, and both within our guided ranges. We delivered non-GAAP EPS of $2.24, an increase of 11% and above our guided range. We generated $4 billion of free cash flow, ahead of our full year outlook of at least $3.7 billion, and we returned $3.4 billion or 85% of free cash flow to shareholders.

全年固定匯率營收成長 2%，非 GAAP 營業利潤成長 3%，列印和個人系統的營業利潤率均有所擴大。印刷品的利潤率成長了 10 個基點，達到 16%，而 PS 的利潤率成長了 120 個基點，達到 4.9%，兩者都在我們的指導範圍內。我們的非 GAAP 每股收益為 2.24 美元，成長 11%，高於我們的指導範圍。我們產生了 40 億美元的自由現金流，高於全年至少 37 億美元的預期，我們向股東返還了 34 億美元，即自由現金流的 85%。

Importantly, we delivered these results while investing in our business for future growth and efficiency opportunities. Our foundation is strong, including our balance sheet, and we have multiple levers to create value for our shareholders. This is what we said at our Securities Analyst Meeting, and this is what we intend to do.

重要的是，我們在取得這些成果的同時，也對我們的業務進行了投資，以尋求未來的成長和效率機會。我們的基礎很強大，包括我們的資產負債表，我們擁有多種槓桿來為股東創造價值。這是我們在證券分析師會議上所說的，也是我們打算做的。

Overall, we are pleased with our full year results despite more challenging industry, macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics.

總體而言，儘管產業、宏觀經濟和地緣政治動態更具挑戰性，但我們對全年業績感到滿意。

Now let's look at the details of the fourth quarter. Net revenue was $15.4 billion, flat year-on-year or up 2% in constant currency. Regionally, in constant currency, APJ grew 7%, Americas grew 1% and EMEA was flat. Gross margin was 19%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven primarily by disciplined execution and improved rate in Personal Systems as well as improved rate in Print supported by higher hardware gross margins.

現在我們來看看第四季的細節。淨收入為 154 億美元，與去年同期持平，以固定匯率計算成長 2%。從地區來看，以固定匯率計算，亞太及日本地區成長 7%，美洲地區成長 1%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區持平。毛利率為 19%，年增 1.4 個百分點，這主要是由於嚴格的執行和個人系統毛利率的提高，以及更高的硬體毛利率支持的列印毛利率的提高。

Non-GAAP operating expenses were $1.8 billion, up 11%, driven by increased investments for both growth and efficiency, including investments to drive future revenue and innovation as well as investments in HP's digital transformation.

非 GAAP 營運支出為 18 億美元，成長 11%，這是由於成長和效率投資增加所致，包括推動未來收入和創新的投資以及對惠普數位轉型的投資。

Non-GAAP net OI&E expense was $60 million for the quarter. We delivered non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share of $0.60, up $0.06 or 11%, with a diluted share count of approximately 1.5 billion shares. Non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share excludes amortization of intangible assets of $21 million, acquisition-related charges of $21 million, restructuring and other charges of $105 million as well as nonoperating retirement-related credits of $14 million. It also excludes a net expense of $378 million for tax adjustments. This net expense is primarily driven by the termination of our Tax Matters Agreement with Hewlett Packard Enterprise, partially offset by other tax adjustments.

本季非 GAAP 淨 OI&E 支出為 6,000 萬美元。我們的非 GAAP 稀釋後每股淨利為 0.60 美元，成長 0.06 美元，或 11%，稀釋後股本數量約為 15 億股。非 GAAP 攤薄每股淨利潤不包括 2,100 萬美元的無形資產攤銷、2,100 萬美元的收購相關費用、1.05 億美元的重組和其他費用以及 1,400 萬美元的非經營性退休相關信貸。它還不包括 3.78 億美元的稅收調整淨費用。此淨費用主要是由於我們與惠普企業終止稅務事項協議所致，部分被其他稅務調整所抵銷。

As a result, Q4 GAAP diluted net earnings per share was $0.26. At the segment level, in Personal Systems, we are again very pleased with our results. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $10.4 billion, up 4% or 5% in constant currency. By customer segment, commercial revenue was up 8%, and consumer revenue was down 4%. By product category, revenue was up 12% for workstations, up 5% for desktops and up 2% for notebooks.

因此，第四季 GAAP 攤薄後每股淨利潤為 0.26 美元。在個人系統細分市場層面，我們再次對我們的結果感到非常滿意。第四季營收為 104 億美元，以固定匯率計算成長 4% 或 5%。以客戶細分來看，商業收入成長了 8%，消費者收入下降了 4%。按產品類別劃分，工作站收入成長 12%，桌上型電腦收入成長 5%，筆記型電腦收入成長 2%。

The team continued to successfully manage our overall product mix as commercial demand remains strong, while navigating a softer consumer market. Personal Systems has been consistently delivering profitable growth and share gains over time. HP outgrew the market in calendar quarter 3 with strong execution, HP-specific innovation and a focus on exceptional partner and end customer experiences.

由於商業需求依然強勁，團隊繼續成功管理我們的整體產品組合，同時應對疲軟的消費市場。隨著時間的推移，個人系統一直在持續實現獲利成長和份額成長。惠普憑藉著強大的執行力、惠普特有的創新以及對卓越合作夥伴和最終客戶體驗的關注，在第三季度超越了市場。

In addition, we see opportunities to improve our portfolio mix over time in areas of premium, displays and accessories and services. For example, this quarter, our revenue in retail solutions business and gaming, along with our services orders, all grew double digits. Q4 operating margins remained exceptionally strong at 5.3%, up 1.6 points year-on-year. The large increase was driven mainly by the team's continued execution of our strategy, balancing the industry's various puts and takes and remaining disciplined in a favorable commodity cost environment. Operating profit was $556 million, up 48% from the prior year. In Print, the business performed generally in line with our expectations for the quarter. We continue to deliver leading customer experiences, big progress in our contractual offerings, incrementally shift more profit to hardware and address our near-term operational challenges in EMEA.

此外，我們還看到了隨著時間的推移，在高端、顯示器、配件和服務領域改善我們的產品組合的機會。例如，本季度，我們在零售解決方案業務和遊戲方面的收入以及我們的服務訂單均實現了兩位數成長。第四季營業利潤率依然異常強勁，達到 5.3%，較去年同期成長 1.6 個百分點。大幅成長主要是由於團隊持續執行我們的策略，平衡產業的各種投入和產出，並在有利的商品成本環境中保持紀律。營業利潤為 5.56 億美元，比上年增長 48%。在印刷方面，業務表現基本上符合我們對本季的預期。我們繼續提供領先的客戶體驗，在合約產品方面取得重大進展，逐步將更多利潤轉移到硬體上，並解決我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的近期營運挑戰。

Looking at the details. Q4 total Print revenue was $5 billion, down 6% nominally and 5% in constant currency. Our operating margins were down 0.4 points to 15.6% due to lower Supplies revenue. Commercial hardware revenue was down 2%, and consumer hardware revenue was down 10%. Total hardware units were down 9% driven by declines in consumer units, which were down 10%, with commercial units down 1%.

看看細節。第四季印刷總營收為 50 億美元，名目下降 6%，以固定匯率計算下降 5%。由於耗材收入下降，我們的營業利潤率下降了 0.4 個百分點，至 15.6%。商業硬體收入下降 2%，消費硬體收入下降 10%。由於消費設備數量下降了 10%，其中商業設備數量下降了 1%，硬體設備總量下降了 9%。

Fourth quarter Supplies revenue was $3.2 billion, down 7% in constant currency, again, driven by declines in EMEA. We are making progress on our operational improvement plans, and we've seen a significant reduction in Tier 1 and monitored Tier 2 channel inventory dollars in EMEA throughout the year. Overall, Tier 1 channel inventory levels remained below the reduced ceilings. We continue to make progress on our strategic plans to evolve our business models. We're seeing success in contractual as we grew both management service and Instant Ink this quarter.

第四季耗材收入為 32 億美元，以固定匯率計算再次下降 7%，這主要是受到歐洲、中東和非洲地區經濟下滑的推動。我們的營運改善計畫正在取得進展，我們發現歐洲、中東和非洲地區的 1 級和監控 2 級通路庫存金額全年大幅減少。整體而言，一級通路庫存水準仍低於降低的上限。我們繼續在發展業務模式的策略計劃上取得進展。隨著本季管理服務和 Instant Ink 的發展，我們在合約方面取得了成功。

Importantly, we remain under-indexed in contractual and are pleased that we continue to outgrow the market. Let me now turn to our transformation efforts, and specifically our cost savings opportunities.

重要的是，我們的合約指數仍然偏低，並且很高興我們的成長繼續超過市場。現在讓我談談我們的轉型努力，特別是我們的成本節約機會。

At SAM, we described our plans to generate approximately $1 billion of gross run rate savings by the end of FY '22, and that we continue looking for more opportunities. In Q4, we announced a voluntary early retirement program in the United States. More than 1,000 participants have opted into the plan, which will be effective through the course of the year. This take rate adds to our confidence in delivering both the FY '20 and overall planned savings targets.

在 SAM，我們描述了到 22 財年末實現約 10 億美元總運行率節省的計劃，並且我們將繼續尋找更多機會。第四季度，我們宣佈在美國實施自願提早退休計畫。已有 1,000 多名參與者選擇加入該計劃，該計劃將全年有效。這一比率增強了我們實現 20 財年和整體計畫節約目標的信心。

Turning to cash flow and capital allocation. Q4 cash flow from operations and free cash flow were $588 million and $392 million, respectively. We generated $4 billion in free cash flow for the full year. In Q4, the cash conversion cycle was minus 31 days. Sequentially, the cash conversion cycle declined 5 days, in line with normal seasonality, with a 6-day decrease in days payable outstanding, a 2-day increase in days sales outstanding and a 3-day decrease in days of inventory. We've returned $461 million to shareholders through share repurchases and $236 million via cash dividends in Q4. For the full year, we returned $2.4 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and $1 billion via cash dividends.

轉向現金流和資本配置。第四季營運現金流和自由現金流分別為 5.88 億美元和 3.92 億美元。我們全年創造了 40 億美元的自由現金流。第四季度，現金週轉週期為負31天。隨後，現金週轉週期下降了 5 天，與正常季節性相符，其中應付帳款週轉天數減少了 6 天，銷售週轉天數增加了 2 天，庫存週轉天數減少了 3 天。第四季度，我們透過股票回購向股東返還 4.61 億美元，透過現金股利返還 2.36 億美元。全年，我們透過股票回購向股東返還 24 億美元，透過現金股利返還 10 億美元。

Looking forward to Q1 and FY '20, keep the following in mind related to our overall financial outlook. We expect that the macroeconomic conditions will remain dynamic, as they are today, and we expect our end markets to remain competitive. We're expecting currency to have about a 1% year-over-year negative impact. Specific to Personal Systems, we expect commodities to be significantly less of a tailwind in FY '20 than in FY '19, especially in the second half. We now expect industry-wide CPU supply constraints to persist through the first half of 2020. In Q1, specifically, we're anticipating a larger revenue impact than in Q4. However, we expect our mix to shift to more profitable units, which should largely mitigate the profit impact.

展望第一季和 20 財年，請記住以下與我們整體財務前景相關的內容。我們預計宏觀經濟狀況將像今天一樣保持動態，並且我們預計我們的終端市場將保持競爭力。我們預期貨幣匯率將產生約 1% 的年比負面影響。具體到個人系統，我們預計 20 財年大宗商品的順風車將明顯少於 19 財年，特別是在下半年。我們現在預計整個產業的 CPU 供應限制將持續到 2020 年上半年。具體來說，我們預計第一季的營收影響將比第四季更大。然而，我們預計我們的產品組合將轉向利潤更高的部門，這將在很大程度上減輕利潤影響。

In Printing, we're assuming a year-over-year unit market decline driven by the home market. As a reminder, we are deliberately not chasing share, especially as we raise hardware pricing and focus on profitable growth. As described at SAM, as we progress through the year, we expect the net benefits of our transformation cost savings and other operational changes to begin to materialize.

在印刷領域，我們假設單位市場年減是由國內市場所推動的。提醒一下，我們故意不追逐份額，特別是當我們提高硬體定價並專注於獲利成長時。正如 SAM 所描述的，隨著我們今年的進展，我們預計轉型成本節約和其他營運變革的淨效益將開始實現。

In addition, for the full year, we expect our non-GAAP tax rate, which is based on our long-term non-GAAP financial projection, to be 16% in FY '20. Consistent to what we communicated in October, we expect to return at least 75% of free cash flow to shareholders in FY '20 as we view our shares as significantly undervalued.

此外，我們預計 20 財年的全年非 GAAP 稅率（基於我們的長期非 GAAP 財務預測）為 16%。與我們在 10 月傳達的訊息一致，我們預計在 20 財年將至少 75% 的自由現金流返還給股東，因為我們認為我們的股票被嚴重低估。

Taking these considerations into account, we are providing the following outlook: Q1 '20 non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share to be in the range of $0.53 to $0.56; Q1 '20 GAAP diluted net earnings per share to be in the range of $0.39 to $0.42. We are raising our full year fiscal 2020 non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share to be in the range of $2.24 to $2.32, and full year fiscal '20 GAAP diluted net earnings per share to be in the range of $2 to $2.10.

考慮到這些因素，我們提供以下展望：20 年第一季非 GAAP 攤薄後每股淨利潤將在 0.53 美元至 0.56 美元之間； 20 年第一季 GAAP 攤薄後每股淨利在 0.39 美元至 0.42 美元之間。我們將 2020 財年全年非 GAAP 攤薄後每股淨利潤提高至 2.24 美元至 2.32 美元，並將 20 財年全年 GAAP 攤薄後每股淨利潤提高至 2 至 2.10 美元。

Operator, we can now open the call for questions.

接線員，我們現在可以開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first questioner today will be Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一位提問者是 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I have, I guess, a question and a follow-up. The first one, I guess, on Supplies, Enrique, I don't want to use the word stabilized, but we've been down 7%, I think, for a couple of quarters in a row now. Do you think we're starting to hit a bottom over here? And how should we think about the Supplies trajectory as we go through fiscal '20? And any feedback you've had from your customers and suppliers, I guess, broadly, in terms of the business model transition and the preference they have over here?

我想我有一個問題和一個後續行動。第一個，我想，關於供應，恩里克，我不想使用「穩定」這個詞，但我認為，我們已經連續幾個季度下降了 7%。你認為我們已經開始觸底了嗎？當我們經歷 20 財年時，我們該如何考慮供應軌跡？我想，您從客戶和供應商那裡得到的任何反饋，廣泛而言，是關於業務模式轉型和他們在這裡的偏好嗎？

Sure. So let me give -- first, let me help to frame the problem that we are facing in Supplies, and then Steve will provide some more data about what we see happening in the future. As we have shared in the past, we have 2 challenges on the Supplies side: First, we have what we call a strategic challenge driven by the growth of clones because of the lower pricing and the access that they have to the online space. But we also have an operational challenge in EMEA driven by the low visibility we had of some inventory in their unmonitored channel, combined with the aggressiveness of the clone competition. And we are making good progress addressing both problems.

當然。因此，讓我先介紹一下我們在供應方面面臨的問題，然後史蒂夫將提供更多有關我們未來將發生的情況的數據。正如我們過去所分享的，我們在供應方面面臨兩個挑戰：首先，我們面臨著由克隆成長驅動的策略挑戰，因為克隆的價格較低且可以存取線上空間。但我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區也面臨營運挑戰，因為我們對其不受監控的管道中的一些庫存的可見性較低，再加上克隆競爭的激烈性。我們在解決這兩個問題方面正在取得良好進展。

On the strategy side, we announced our plan in the Securities Analyst Meeting to transform our model by evolving into services, accelerating the growth in big ink and big toner in emerging countries and, at the end of next year, starting to evolve our transactional model into both an end-to-end or a flexible model. On the operational side, we have also made good progress reducing our inventory, accelerating our growth online, getting better visibility of the inventory in Tier 2s, and as we said in the prepared remarks, changing our control processes to make sure that we have better business management processes in EMEA. Steve?

策略方面，我們在證券分析師會議上宣布了我們的計劃，將向服務轉型，加速新興國家大墨水、大墨粉的增長，並在明年底開始進化我們的交易模式。分為端到端或靈活模型。在營運方面，我們在減少庫存、加速線上成長、更好地了解二級庫存方面也取得了良好進展，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，改變我們的控制流程以確保我們有更好的歐洲、中東和非洲地區的業務管理流程。史蒂夫？

Yes. Sure. I mean, I think to start, as I've said many times, our focus remains on operating profit dollars across the entire print ecosystem. But as really specifically to Supplies, Enrique mentioned, operationally, making good progress. We're seeing good indicators. Strategically, we're taking the right long-term steps. Q1 specifically, I guess what I'd say is we're planning prudently. Therefore, we're planning Q1 to kind of be more in the range of where we were in Q4, and that's embedded in our outlook and have confidence in the plan through the remainder of '20, and there's things that we view as tailwinds. We're shifting more of our business to contractual-based models, and that's across both home and office since that's stickier, higher share of revenue for us. We expect to continue to grow our industrial businesses across graphics and 3D. And as Enrique mentioned, we're making the right operational changes in EMEA, but also globally with the new commercial organization.

是的。當然。我的意思是，我認為首先，正如我多次說過的那樣，我們的重點仍然是整個印刷生態系統的營運利潤。但恩里克特別針對供應部門提到，在營運方面取得了良好進展。我們看到了良好的指標。從戰略上講，我們正在採取正確的長期步驟。具體來說，我想我想說的是，我們正在謹慎規劃。因此，我們計劃第一季的業績在第四季度的範圍內，這已融入我們的前景中，並且對 20 年剩餘時間的計劃充滿信心，我們認為有些事情是有利的。我們正在將更多業務轉向基於合約的模式，無論是家庭還是辦公室，因為這對我們來說更具黏性，收入份額也更高。我們預計將繼續發展圖形和 3D 領域的工業業務。正如恩里克所提到的，我們正在歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及全球範圍內透過新的商業組織進行正確的營運變革。

Obviously, we have some offsets. As you're aware, we have declines in the installed base in home. We're very well aware of that and obviously need to mitigate those declines and also the challenges we've discussed in prior quarters on the aftermarket share of Supplies. So we've got some pluses and minuses as we head through the rest of the year. And I guess, kind of -- that's how we view Supplies trajectory for FY '20.

顯然，我們有一些抵消。如您所知，我們的家庭裝置量有所下降。我們非常清楚這一點，顯然需要緩解這些下降以及我們在前幾個季度討論過的供應品售後市場份額的挑戰。因此，在今年剩下的時間裡，我們有一些優點和缺點。我想，這就是我們對 20 財年供應軌跡的看法。

Got it. That's really helpful. And I guess my follow-up, Steve, for you. $4 billion free cash flow this year, extremely impressive. I think it was better than what you guys were targeting. Can you just maybe bridge this for me and everyone, $4 billion in fiscal '19 to $3 billion in fiscal '20, kind of what are the puts and takes? And I'm assume -- and really to understand how much of the delta over here is transitory in nature versus structural. That would be helpful.

知道了。這真的很有幫助。我想我的後續行動，史蒂夫，是為你準備的。今年 40 億美元的自由現金流，非常令人印象深刻。我認為這比你們的目標更好。你能否為我和每個人彌補這一點，從 19 財年的 40 億美元到 20 財年的 30 億美元，看跌期權和索取金額是多少？我假設——並且真正了解這裡的三角洲有多少是暫時性的，而不是結構性的。那會有幫助的。

Sure. So I've got a lot of confidence in delivering at least $3 billion, and that's our outlook for FY '20. If you just look back over the past 4 years, we've averaged a little bit over $3.5 billion each year. And this year, in particular, we do have a headwind, primarily as it relates to restructuring of roughly $400 million. As I mentioned at SAM, there's some other onetime favorabilities we saw in FY '19 that we don't expect to repeat. That being said, given where we ended cash conversion cycle in FY '19, I would view CCC is actually a help year-over-year. Our outlook for FY '20 is minus 33 days, and we finished FY '19 at minus 31. We'll need to see how the PS volume plays out in the second half. And I would note that the seasonality this year in PS may be different, given some of the industry dynamics. But altogether, I got a high degree of confidence in delivering the at least $3 billion on it.

當然。因此，我對交付至少 30 億美元充滿信心，這就是我們對 20 財年的展望。如果你回顧過去 4 年，我們每年的平均支出略高於 35 億美元。尤其是今年，我們確實遇到了阻力，主要是因為它涉及約 4 億美元的重組。正如我在 SAM 中提到的，我們在 19 財年看到了一些其他一次性優惠，但我們預計不會重複。話雖這麼說，考慮到我們在 19 財年結束了現金轉換週期，我認為 CCC 實際上是逐年幫助的。我們對 20 財年的預期為負 33 天，而 19 財年的預期為負 31 天。我們需要看看下半年 PS 銷售的表現如何。我想指出的是，考慮到一些行業動態，今年 PS 的季節性可能會有所不同。但總的來說，我對交付至少 30 億美元充滿信心。

The next question is from Shannon Cross with Cross Research.

下一個問題來自 Cross Research 的 Shannon Cross。

I know you talked -- you said you won't talk about Xerox, so I won't ask that specifically, but in the conversations you've had back and forth and the letters, a couple of times, there's been a mention of strong balance sheet and share repurchase. So I guess, maybe can you take a minute to just talk about how you view your capital structure, uses of cash and, I don't know, your thoughts on sort of where investors are leaning or what the Board is thinking these days? And then I have a follow-up.

我知道你說過——你說過你不會談論施樂，所以我不會具體問這個問題，但在你來回的談話和信件中，有幾次提到了強勁的資產負債表和股票回購。所以我想，也許你能花一點時間談談你如何看待你的資本結構、現金的使用，以及，我不知道，你對投資者的傾向或董事會最近在想什麼的看法？然後我有一個後續行動。

And maybe just for starters, I do want to repeat maybe some of my comments at SAM and then sort of talk about where we are. As you're aware, we did update our long-term return-of-capital target at our Securities Analyst Meeting to return approximately 75%. That's our long-term target. And really, this is about a steady return profile for investors and supporting our business strategy. For FY '20 specifically, we're targeting at least 75% return, and that was what we said at the time, given our stock price significantly undervalued the business, and we have confidence in our outlook. We also indicated that our Board approved an incremental $5 billion share repurchase authorization. So we do have the flexibility to be opportunistic. Kind of bring it back up to, I guess, the point of your question around capital allocation, which we do view as an extremely critical management responsibility. In our framework, we'll remain disciplined. We have evaluated, we'll continue to evaluate ways with our balance sheet to create additional shareholder value. That could include M&A. It could include additional return of capital. As always, we'll compare the options using a return risk-adjusted view of each opportunity.

也許首先，我確實想重複我在 SAM 的一些評論，然後談談我們的處境。如您所知，我們確實在證券分析師會議上將長期資本回報率目標更新為約 75%。這是我們的長期目標。事實上，這關係到投資者的穩定回報並支持我們的業務策略。具體來說，對於 20 財年，我們的目標是至少 75% 的回報率，這就是我們當時所說的，因為我們的股價嚴重低估了該業務，而且我們對我們的前景充滿信心。我們也表示，董事會批准了增量 50 億美元的股票回購授權。所以我們確實有機會主義的彈性。我想，這有點回到你關於資本配置的問題，我們確實認為這是一項極為重要的管理責任。在我們的框架內，我們將保持紀律。我們已經評估了，我們將繼續評估如何利用我們的資產負債表創造額外的股東價值。這可能包括併購。它可能包括額外的資本回報。與往常一樣，我們將使用每個機會的回報風險調整視圖來比較選項。

And Shannon, let me emphasize the confidence we have in our plan. We explained our strategy during the Securities Analyst Meeting. We are making progress, and we are very confident in our ability to create value for shareholders, which is our key priority.

香農，讓我強調我們對我們的計劃充滿信心。我們在證券分析師會議上解釋了我們的策略。我們正在進步，我們對為股東創造價值的能力非常有信心，這是我們的首要任務。

And then maybe if you can talk a bit about the A3 market, what you're seeing there, competition and how some of your initiatives are going.

然後也許您可以談談 A3 市場、您在那裡看到的情況、競爭以及您的一些舉措的進展。

Sure. So A3 is a key element of our contractual plan. And as I said in the prepared remarks, we are making very good progress. In a flat market, we are growing double digit. And if we focus for a second on A3, we have grown 5%, where the market is barely flat. So very good progress. And I think this is really important because as we look at the future of the print business and the need to change, the opportunity we have to continue to expand and change the business model, growing in contractual is critical for us going forward. And this is really where our focus is and where really our focus will continue to be in the incoming quarters.

當然。因此，A3 是我們合約計劃的關鍵要素。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們正在取得非常好的進展。在平坦的市場中，我們正在實現兩位數的成長。如果我們再關注 A3，我們就成長了 5%，而該市場幾乎持平。所以進展非常好。我認為這非常重要，因為當我們審視印刷業務的未來和變革的需要時，我們必須繼續擴大和改變業務模式的機會，合約的成長對我們的前進至關重要。這確實是我們的重點所在，也是我們在接下來的幾季中將繼續關注的重點。

The next question is from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

下一個問題是托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦提出的。

I have a question and a follow-up as well. I was wondering if you could comment specifically on channel inventory over the course of this year. So specifically, if I were to look at this day a year ago versus today, how significant was your drawdown in channel inventory in terms of weeks? And what impact did that have on Supplies revenue growth this quarter -- this year, excuse me, in fiscal '19? And do you believe that Supplies revenue growth will be better in fiscal '20 than '19? And I'll do my follow-up after.

我還有一個問題和後續行動。我想知道您是否可以具體評論一下今年的頻道庫存。因此，具體而言，如果我將一年前的這一天與今天進行比較，您的通路庫存按週計算的減少幅度有多大？這對本季（今年，請問，19 財年）的供應收入成長有何影響？您是否認為 20 財年的供應收入成長會比 19 財年更好？之後我會跟進。

So I'm assuming this is about the Supplies channel inventory and not channel inventory broadly. So let me kind of comment on where the Supplies channel inventory went this year. So throughout FY '19, we have reduced our channel inventory dollars by over $100 million. This is more than what we initially estimated. So we continue to make good progress. This includes both Tier 1 and parts of Tier 2, and note that we don't have complete visibility into the entire ecosystem. And so things are getting better. We do know, at the same time, the EMEA market has softened. So it's hard to bifurcate or specifically quantify how much of that channel inventory reduction was a result of starting the year off in a high position versus what was happening in the marketplace. What you should sort of think about it is at least $100 million channel inventory reduction on a year-over-year basis.

因此，我假設這是關於供應渠道庫存，而不是廣泛的渠道庫存。因此，讓我對今年供應通路庫存的去向進行評論。因此，在 2019 財年，我們的通路庫存減少了超過 1 億美元。這超出了我們最初的估計。所以我們繼續取得良好進展。這包括第 1 層和第 2 層的部分內容，請注意，我們無法完全了解整個生態系統。所以事情正在變得更好。我們確實知道，同時，歐洲、中東和非洲市場已經疲軟。因此，很難區分或具體量化通路庫存減少有多少是由於年初的高地位與市場上發生的情況造成的。您應該考慮的是，渠道庫存比去年同期減少了至少 1 億美元。

And as I mentioned, as it relates to FY '20, we do feel like there's things that are going our way from the contractual models, industrial businesses and the operational changes we've made, but we also have headwinds. And so we have to manage through the headwinds around the home side, have to manage the headwinds around ensuring we're protecting our share as much as possible. So I think those are all factored into how we're thinking about FY '20. We're taking a very prudent view, and that prudent view is factored into not just our Q1, but our overall FY '20 outlook.

正如我所提到的，與 20 財年相關，我們確實覺得合約模式、工業業務和我們所做的營運變革正在發生一些事情，但我們也遇到了阻力。因此，我們必須應對主隊周圍的逆風，必須應對周圍的逆風，確保我們盡可能地保護我們的份額。所以我認為這些都是我們如何考慮 20 財年的因素。我們採取非常謹慎的觀點，這種謹慎的觀點不僅體現在我們的第一季度，而且體現在我們對 20 財年的整體展望中。

Okay. So no explicit comments on whether up or down relative to fiscal '19 in terms of what's baked into your guidance, Steve?

好的。因此，史蒂夫，對於您的指導中的內容相對於 19 財年是上升還是下降，沒有明確的評論嗎？

As I said, I think we've got some headwinds and tailwinds. What we're driving is operating profit dollars in our print business. Obviously, supplies is a big part of it, but so is the shift more to hardware. We saw our hardware gross margins expand in Q4 as an example, and adding more services to the portfolio. So all together is what we're driving to focus on OP dollars versus just Supplies specifically.

正如我所說，我認為我們遇到了一些逆風和順風。我們推動的是印刷業務的營業利潤。顯然，供應是其中的重要組成部分，但更多地轉向硬體也是如此。例如，我們看到我們的硬體毛利率在第四季度有所擴大，並向產品組合添加了更多服務。因此，總而言之，我們正在推動將重點放在營運費用上，而不是專門針對供應品。

And then just to follow up, you've stated repeatedly on the call that you believe your shares are undervalued and that you outlined a highly credible strategy at SAM. But prior to the Xerox announcement, the stock has traded at $17 or less since the Securities Analyst Meeting. And so I guess my question to you is, what is it that you think you see that investors are missing, given where the stock has traded at following SAM? And if you really were so confident that the stock has been structurally undervalued throughout the year, why did your SAM plan not include your deciding to take on debt and much more aggressively repurchase your shares?

接下來，您在電話會議上反覆表示，您認為自己的股票被低估，並且您在 SAM 制定了高度可信的策略。但在施樂宣布這一消息之前，自證券分析師會議以來，該股的交易價格一直在 17 美元或更低。因此，我想我向您提出的問題是，考慮到該股在 SAM 之後的交易價格，您認為投資者遺漏了什麼？如果你真的如此確信該股票全年都被結構性低估，為什麼你的 SAM 計劃不包括你決定承擔債務並更積極地回購你的股票？

So let me start, and then I think Steve will complement. I think the key thing that we see, Toni, is a gap between the current value of the stock and the net present value of the cash flow projections that we have in our plan. And this is what drives our comment and thinking about being undervalued. What we have proven this quarter and we have proven in the past is that we have a clear ability to execute and that we deliver on our commitment. And our expectation is that by executing every quarter and meeting our guidelines, we will be seeing that gap to be reduced.

那麼讓我開始吧，然後我認為史蒂夫會補充。東尼，我認為我們看到的關鍵是股票的當前價值與我們計劃中現金流預測的淨現值之間的差距。這就是我們評論和思考被低估的原因。我們本季和過去所證明的是，我們有明確的執行能力，並且我們兌現了我們的承諾。我們的期望是，透過每個季度執行並滿足我們的指導方針，我們將看到這一差距縮小。

And maybe just to add to that. What we did say at SAM, we did have a change in terms of our fiscal year '20 return of capital, where we communicated that we expect to return at least 75% and also announced an incremental authorization of share repurchase from the Board of $5 billion to give us the flexibility and opportunity to repurchase more shares. To note, in Q4, we did have additional material nonpublic information. I think that's obvious now. And so we were not as active in the market as we would like to have been.

也許只是為了補充這一點。正如我們在 SAM 所說的那樣，我們確實對 20 財年的資本回報率進行了更改，我們表示預計回報率至少為 75%，並宣布董事會增量授權回購​​ 5 美元十億美元，為我們提供了回購更多股票的靈活性和機會。需要注意的是，在第四季度，我們確實有其他重要的非公開資訊。我想現在這已經很明顯了。因此，我們在市場上並沒有像我們希望的那樣活躍。

The next question is from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的凱蒂·休伯蒂。

How are you thinking about first quarter '20 revenue performance versus normal seasonality, given the Intel comments about component constraints and your comments about not expecting an improvement in Supplies rate of decline? And then I have a follow-up.

考慮到英特爾對組件限制的評論以及您對預計供應下降率不會改善的評論，您如何看待 20 年第一季的收入表現與正常季節性的比較？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. So we are assuming that the CPU supply will constrain our revenue in Q1. And if you think about it on a sequential basis, certainly, in the Personal Systems business, we would expect to have declines from Q4 to Q1 above the normal seasonal patterns. That being said, well, this is more of a revenue impact than profit impact for the quarter as we expect our mix should be better.

是的。因此，我們假設 CPU 供應將限制我們第一季的營收。如果您按順序考慮，當然，在個人系統業務中，我們預計第四季度到第一季的下降幅度將高於正常的季節性模式。話雖如此，這對本季的收入影響大於利潤影響，因為我們預計我們的組合應該會更好。

Okay. And then just thinking more broadly over the course of fiscal '20. Steve, you had mentioned that you see the potential for different seasonality than in the past. How long are you expecting that the PC market strength associated with the Win 10 upgrade lasts? Does that continue well into the first half of the year? And how do you see seasonality falling off in the back half as customers complete those upgrades?

好的。然後更廣泛地思考 20 財年的進程。史蒂夫，您曾提到您看到了與過去不同的季節性潛力。您預計與 Win 10 升級相關的 PC 市場強勢會持續多久？這種情況會持續到今年上半年嗎？隨著客戶完成這些升級，您如何看待下半年季節性的下降？

Yes. Katy, I think the seasonality for next year is going to be impacted by the availability of CPUs. What we know now is that availability is going to be constrained for the first full half, and therefore, that will be having an impact on the seasonality between the second and the first half. So this is something that you really should have in mind as you build the projections for next year.

是的。Katy，我認為明年的季節性將受到 CPU 可用性的影響。我們現在知道的是，上半年的供應量將受到限制，因此，這將對下半年和上半年之間的季節性產生影響。因此，在製定明年的預測時，您確實應該牢記這一點。

And as it relates then to the Win 7, Win 10 refresh, it could be that these current supply constraints actually indeed help prolong the Win 10 refresh. And so there's a lot of dynamics going on, and that's why I think seasonal patterns are likely to be affected, both from a supply, but also on the potential extension of the Win 10 refresh.

由於它涉及到 Win 7、Win 10 更新，因此這些電流供應限制實際上可能確實有助於延長 Win 10 更新。因此，有許多動態正在發生，這就是為什麼我認為季節性模式可能會受到影響，不僅來自供應，而且來自 Win 10 更新的潛在延期。

The next question is from Ananda Baruah with Loop Capital.

下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Ananda Baruah。

I have a question and a follow-up as well. Just sticking there, Steve, some of the distributors actually believe, with regards to Win 10 and PC -- PC Win 10 refresh, that there's actually a long way to go for small and medium business customers, which is a meaningful part of your customer base, and not just chipset-related, but related to those -- those folks just tend to put off larger purchases as long as they possibly can. Do you have enough visibility to agree with that view or disagree with that view? And then I have a follow-up as well.

我還有一個問題和後續行動。史蒂夫，堅持下去，一些分銷商實際上相信，關於Win 10 和PC——PC Win 10 更新，對於中小型企業客戶來說，實際上還有很長的路要走，這是客戶中有意義的一部分基礎，不僅僅是與晶片組相關，而是與那些相關——這些人只是傾向於盡可能推遲更大的採購。您是否有足夠的知名度來同意該觀點或不同意該觀點？然後我也有後續行動。

I think, in general, we would agree with that view. I mean, there's a large installed base with PCs more than 4 years old. In our assessment, we're a little over 1/3 -- about 1/3 of which are still on Win 7. So there's an opportunity for upgrades. There's an opportunity for upgrades. We're seeing -- and Alex described this at our Analyst Meeting, that PCs are being used by this generation versus prior generations, and they're also using them for specific experiences. But -- so we see the TAM and our ability to gain share as a good opportunity, not to mention our ability to continue improving our mix. But the short of it is, we still think that there's some life here on that Win 7, Win 10 refresh that will extend.

我認為，總的來說，我們會同意這個觀點。我的意思是，有一個龐大的用戶群，他們的電腦已經使用了 4 年以上。在我們的評估中，我們的比例略高於 1/3，其中約 1/3 仍在使用 Win 7。因此，還有升級的機會。有升級的機會。我們看到——亞歷克斯在我們的分析師會議上描述了這一點，與前幾代人相比，這一代人正在使用個人電腦，而且他們也使用它們來獲得特定的體驗。但是，所以我們認為 TAM 和我們獲得份額的能力是一個很好的機會，更不用說我們繼續改進我們的組合的能力了。但缺點是，我們仍然認為 Win 7、Win 10 的更新還有一定的生命力。

And let me reinforce his comments. I think the combination of our innovation and ability to execute have proven that -- have allowed us to grow faster than the market, and this is what we expect to continue to do going forward.

讓我強化他的評論。我認為我們的創新和執行能力的結合已經證明——使我們能夠比市場更快地成長，這也是我們期望繼續前進的事情。

That's really helpful, guys. And just as a quick follow-up. You mentioned new -- for Printing, new models out by the end of fiscal -- I think you said -- you actually said '20. So could you clarify if that's fiscal '20 or calendar '20? New models for the new printer model, a new printer -- new hardware for the new printer model. Can you clarify if that's fiscal '20 or calendar?

這真的很有幫助，夥計們。就像快速跟進。你提到了新的——對於印刷，在財政年底推出的新型號——我想你說過——你實際上說的是“20”。那麼您能否澄清一下這是 20 財年還是 20 日曆年？新印表機型號的新型號，新印表機－新印表機型號的新硬體。您能澄清一下這是 20 財年還是日曆嗎？

And then just how does that fit in -- I guess the broader question is, how does that fit into you guys being able to really make an impact with the business model shift, waiting for those new models?

然後，這如何適應——我想更廣泛的問題是，這如何適應你們能夠真正對商業模式轉變產生影響，等待那些新模式？

So let me start from the second question and then I will go back to the details of the first. As we shared during SAM, the change of business model in print is driven by 3 different vectors. First is a shift into services, both into managed print services and Instant Ink. This offers a better value proposition to customers, and this is a change that we have been driving for some time in the past and where we are growing double digit. Second element of the change is the growth in emerging countries of the big ink and big toner category. Big ink has been in the market for some time. We are growing. And we are the only company that offers a big toner solution, and we have continued the rollout of this solution during the last month. And only the last part of the change is really driven by the new model for transactional customers. This new model, as you said, will be available in the market at the end of the year during our calendar Q4.

那麼讓我從第二個問題開始，然後我將回到第一個問題的細節。正如我們在 SAM 期間分享的那樣，印刷業商業模式的變化是由 3 個不同的向量驅動的。首先是向服務的轉變，包括管理列印服務和 Instant Ink。這為客戶提供了更好的價值主張，這是我們過去一段時間以來一直在推動的變革，我們正在實現兩位數的成長。變化的第二個因素是新興國家的大墨水和大墨粉類別的成長。大墨水已經上市一段時間了。我們正在成長。我們是唯一一家提供大型碳粉解決方案的公司，我們在上個月繼續推出該解決方案。只有最後一部分的變化是真正由交易客戶的新模式所驅動的。正如您所說，這款新型號將於今年年底第四季上市。

Your next question is from Matt Cabral with Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的馬特·卡布拉爾。

Enrique, maybe to pick up on your last answer. You mentioned the initial rollout of big ink and big toner in other emerging markets. Just wondering if you could talk about what the initial customer and competitive response has been so far, and just how you're thinking about the geographic rollout of that model more broadly across your portfolio.

恩里克，也許是為了了解你最後的答案。您提到了大墨水和大碳粉在其他新興市場的首次推出。只是想知道您是否可以談談到目前為止最初的客戶和競爭反應是什麼，以及您如何考慮在您的產品組合中更廣泛地推廣該模型的地理範圍。

Sure. So the reception has been positive. As I said before, big ink has been in the market for some time and we have been growing our share. Big toner is a category that we are creating, and we started the launch a few months ago. And as we go into more countries, we continue to see the growth. Reception is very positive because in those countries, usually, consumption is high. We have lower share of [original] supply. And therefore, for us, it's a better model and it's also a better model for our customers.

當然。所以反響是正面的。正如我之前所說，大墨水已經進入市場一段時間了，我們的份額一直在增長。大碳粉是我們正在創建的一個類別，我們在幾個月前開始推出。隨著我們進入更多國家，我們繼續看到成長。反應非常積極，因為這些國家的消費通常很高。我們的[原始]供應份額較低。因此，對我們來說，這是一個更好的模型，對我們的客戶來說也是一個更好的模型。

And then, Steve, on Personal Systems, margins were once again above 5% in the quarter. Just wondering if you could bridge how much of the year-over-year improvement was the tailwinds from component pricing versus just other underlying improvement, and just how we should think about that impact from component pricing as we move through fiscal '20.

然後，史蒂夫，個人系統的利潤率在本季再次超過 5%。只是想知道您是否可以弄清楚，同比改善有多少是來自組件定價的推動作用，而不是其他潛在的改善，以及當我們進入 20 財年時，我們應該如何考慮組件定價的影響。

Yes, it's fair to assume that some level of the profit margin rate in dollars did come from that. But it really is on the backs of how we execute our strategy and overall pricing discipline. There's a lot of puts and takes to pricing. Obviously, commodities have been favorable for us. Overall, currency has been a headwind for us. And so as you take it all into consideration, in addition to the competitive dynamics, it's hard to specifically quantify how much of that sort of exceptional performance was due to the commodities. As we sort of think about FY '20, certainly even from Q4 to Q1, we'd expect the commodity costs to be a bit more stable. And therefore, I don't expect as much tailwind in Q1 and certainly as we enter into the second half as we saw this year. That being said, we continue to have a more structural opportunity to improve our mix. And again, the team deserves a lot of credit for remaining disciplined in the overall pricing strategy.

是的，可以公平地假設一定程度的美元利潤率確實來自於此。但這確實取決於我們執行策略和整體定價規則的方式。定價有很多看跌期權。顯然，大宗商品對我們有利。總體而言，貨幣對我們來說一直是個阻力。因此，當你考慮到這一切時，除了競爭動態之外，很難具體量化這種卓越表現在多大程度上歸功於大宗商品。當我們考慮 20 財年時，甚至從第四季度到第一季度，我們預計商品成本會更加穩定。因此，我預計第一季不會有那麼大的順風車，當然，進入下半年後也不會像今年那樣。話雖如此，我們仍然有更多的結構性機會來改善我們的組合。再說一遍，該團隊在整體定價策略上保持紀律性，值得高度讚揚。

The next question is from Aaron Rakers with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Aaron Rakers。

Just kind of building on that last question. I have a follow-up as well. Thinking about setting component pricing to the side and thinking about the mix shift of the business, it does look like your ASP erosion on particularly your notebooks has kind of accelerated here a little bit. I'm just kind of wanting to understand how I would think about the mix shift dynamic underneath of that. Any metrics you can share of how successful you've been in terms of mix shifting within the PC portfolio and where you think the biggest incremental levers are to continue to see that mix shift going forward as component pricing starts to stabilize, and potentially whether or not we should think about ASPs on a blended basis moving higher going forward in PCs?

只是以最後一個問題為基礎。我也有後續行動。考慮到將組件定價放在一邊並考慮業務的混合轉變，看起來您的平均售價（尤其是筆記型電腦）的侵蝕確實有點加速了。我只是想了解我如何看待背後的混合轉變動態。您可以分享的任何衡量標準，說明您在PC 產品組合內的組合轉變方面取得了多麼成功，以及您認為最大的增量槓桿是隨著組件價格開始穩定，以及可能是否會繼續看到組合轉變的發展。我們是否應該考慮在混合基礎上提高個人電腦的平均售價？

So on a full year basis, mix has definitely been a tailwind for us in Q4 specifically and, as you point out, on notebooks, but we did see an ASP decline. That's driven by FX. So that's a certain part of it. At the total print -- PS level, that's got 2 points, and then rate was 2 points. When we look at the rate specifically, and I touched on this in my prior comments, but the overall industry-wide pricing adjustments in the market due to the commodity cost dynamics in certain product categories like notebooks, pricing is also dependent upon the supply availability that you get. And so all that together is really what drove ASP down year-over-year in Q4.

因此，從全年的角度來看，混合對我們來說無疑是第四季度的推動力，特別是，正如您所指出的，在筆記型電腦上，但我們確實看到了平均售價的下降。這是由外匯驅動的。這就是其中的一部分。在總印刷量－PS水準上，得2分，然後率是2分。當我們具體考慮費率時，我在之前的評論中談到了這一點，但由於筆記型電腦等某些產品類別的商品成本動態，整個行業的市場定價調整也取決於供應情況你得到的。因此，所有這些因素共同推動了第四季平均售價年減。

In terms of upside potential, I'd say we view it as significant over time. And when we think about mix, the good news for HP is we're under-indexed in such favorable parts of the PC marketplace. You think about displays and accessories, you think about premium categories. In gaming, which we grew double digits this past quarter. You think about services. And so all of that, we view as more structural long-term tailwind for us. But in the near term, yes, we're facing so many dynamics, Intel being another one, as an example, and the overall supply that we get. So -- but when we think long term, a lot of potential upside on our mix as we can continue to drive these growth initiatives.

就上行潛力而言，我想說，隨著時間的推移，我們認為它是重要的。當我們考慮混合時，對惠普來說好消息是我們在個人電腦市場中如此有利的部分的指數偏低。您會想到顯示器和配件，您會想到優質類別。在遊戲領域，上個季度我們實現了兩位數成長。你考慮的是服務。因此，我們認為所有這些對我們來說都是更具結構性的長期順風車。但在短期內，是的，我們面臨著如此多的動態，例如英特爾是另一個動態，以及我們獲得的整體供應。所以，但當我們從長遠來看，我們的組合有很多潛在的好處，因為我們可以繼續推動這些成長計畫。

Yes. Okay. That's perfect. And as a follow-up, kind of that Intel comment. The CPU shortage situation has kind of persisted for much longer than what I think anybody would have expected. I'm just curious of how you guys have kind of thought about mitigating that impact in the portfolio. There are seemingly more competitive alternatives out there in the CPU market today. I'm just curious of how you see or what you think the explanation is for the CPU shortage. And whether or not there's other ways to potentially bridge the impact of revenue here, what seemingly looks like it's going to persist here, as you say, through the first half of 2020 at this point?

是的。好的。那很完美。作為後續行動，類似於英特爾的評論。CPU 短缺的情況持續的時間比我認為任何人預期的都要長得多。我只是好奇你們如何考慮減輕投資組合中的影響。如今，CPU 市場上似乎有更具競爭力的替代品。我只是好奇你如何看待或你認為 CPU 短缺的解釋是什麼。無論是否有其他方法可以潛在地彌合收入的影響，正如您所說，這種情況似乎會持續到 2020 年上半年？

So yes, you're right that we have been in this situation for about a year now. As I said before, we expect it to continue for probably at least 2 other quarters. I think the question about the why is probably a better question to ask to Intel than to us. What I can tell you, though, is that we continue to be committed to use multiple CPU providers. We are working with other vendors. We have been growing the mix of other categories. But Intel is still a very large part of our portfolio and, therefore, when there are shortages, we need to navigate through those and manage our business that way.

所以，是的，你是對的，我們處於這種情況已經大約一年了。正如我之前所說，我們預計這種情況可能會持續至少兩個季度。我認為關於“為什麼”的問題問英特爾可能比問我們更好。不過，我可以告訴您的是，我們將繼續致力於使用多個 CPU 提供者。我們正在與其他供應商合作。我們一直在增加其他類別的組合。但英特爾仍然是我們產品組合的很大一部分，因此，當出現短缺時，我們需要解決這些問題並以這種方式管理我們的業務。

And just 1 other mitigation factor. I'm kind of repeating my earlier comment, but it's important to reiterate, and that is we do expect a better mix of units, which should help mitigate the profit impact of this. While there may be revenue, less so on the bottom line.

還有另外一個緩解因素。我有點重複我之前的評論，但重要的是要重申，我們確實期望更好的單位組合，這應該有助於減輕這種情況對利潤的影響。雖然可能有收入，但利潤卻較少。

I think we are running out of time now. So I want to thank everyone for joining us today and taking the time to be here, and I'd like to emphasize the confidence that we have in our strategy and the multiple levers that we have to create value. We are -- we have been and we will be relentless in managing costs and investing to create long-term value. And we know how to manage through the current dynamics, which is what -- exactly what we have been doing during the last years. We will continue to execute our strategy with rigor, and we will keep our focus to drive long-term value creation for our shareholders. Thank you.

我想我們現在已經沒有時間了。因此，我要感謝大家今天加入我們並抽出時間來到這裡，我想強調我們對我們的策略以及我們創造價值的多種手段的信心。我們過去、現在、將來都會堅持不懈地管理成本和投資以創造長期價值。我們知道如何應對當前的動態，這正是我們過去幾年一直在做的事情。我們將繼續嚴格執行我們的策略，並繼續專注於為股東創造長期價值。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。