漢威聯合 (HON) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Honeywell first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.(Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加霍尼韋爾2025年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）

I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想把電話交給投資人關係副總裁 Sean Meakim。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vimal Kapur; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Stepniak.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加霍尼韋爾 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起通話的有董事長兼執行長 Vimal Kapur；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Mike Stepniak。

This webcast and the presentation materials, including non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our Investor Relations website. From time to time, we post new information that may be of interest or material to our investors on this website.

此網路廣播和簡報資料（包括非公認會計準則對帳表）可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。我們會不時在此網站上發布投資者可能感興趣或重要的新資訊。

Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the ones described in our SEC filings.

我們今天的討論包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們對當今世界和我們業務的最佳看法，並受到風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的風險和不確定性。

This morning, we will review our financial results for the first quarter, share our guidance for the second quarter, and provide an update on full year 2025. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end.

今天上午，我們將回顧第一季的財務業績，分享第二季的指引，並提供 2025 年全年的最新情況。像往常一樣，我們會在最後留出時間回答您的問題。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Vimal Kapur.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給董事長兼執行長 Vimal Kapur。

Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. Honeywell saw its strong finish to last year's carry into 2025 as we exceeded the high end of our guidance on all metrics in the first quarter, and this performance translated into substantial free cash flow growth as well. Overall, demand was strong with a book-to-bill above 1.

謝謝你，肖恩，大家早安。霍尼韋爾在第一季的所有指標均超出了預期上限，在去年的基礎上取得了強勁的業績，並順利進入 2025 年，而這一業績也轉化為可觀的自由現金流增長。整體而言，需求強勁，訂單出貨比超過 1。

Although our business has solid momentum heading into the second quarter, the economic climate has become increasingly uncertain in recent weeks. Global trade patterns are shifting because of increasing tariffs and duties, making customer planning more difficult. Weaker sentiments, combined with higher price expectation warrants incremental caution regarding end-market demand in the coming quarters.

儘管我們的業務在第二季度保持了強勁的發展勢頭，但最近幾週的經濟環境變得越來越不確定。由於關稅和稅費的增加，全球貿易模式正在發生變化，使客戶規劃變得更加困難。市場情緒走弱，加上價格預期走高，使得未來幾季對終端市場需求的謹慎態度日益增強。

Despite these headwinds, we remain on track to deliver on our 2025 outlook as we are maintaining our full-year organic growth guidance and raising our adjusted EPS guidance. Our outlook now incorporates the impact of current tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty, fully offset by our ongoing mitigation efforts, local-for-local strategy, accelerated operating system, and resilient market position.

儘管面臨這些不利因素，我們仍有望實現 2025 年的願景，因為我們將維持全年有機成長指引並提高調整後的每股盈餘指引。我們的前景現在包含了當前關稅和宏觀經濟不確定性的影響，但我們正在進行的緩解努力、本地化策略、加速的作業系統和有彈性的市場地位完全抵消了這些影響。

As you can see, we are taking decisive actions during this uncertain time to not only protect but grow earnings, invest for future, and position Honeywell for long-term success regardless of the operating environment we face. Honeywell has a team across function and businesses meeting daily to review and respond to tariff announcements. This team analyzes a number of levers to optimally respond to changing conditions.

正如您所看到的，在這個不確定的時期，我們採取了果斷的行動，不僅保護而且增加收益，為未來投資，並使霍尼韋爾無論面臨何種經營環境都能獲得長期成功。霍尼韋爾擁有一支跨職能和業務的團隊，每天開會審查和回應關稅公告。團隊分析了多種手段，以便最佳地應對不斷變化的條件。

We're also closely monitoring bilateral negotiations and engaging with key stakeholders. From our perspective, there are three very important consideration for supporting American competitiveness and manufacturing: maintain the principle of USMCA, strike the right kind of trade agreement with our major trading partners, and continue the global framework that has made the US the world leader in aerospace.

我們也密切關注雙邊談判並與主要利害關係人接觸。在我們看來，支持美國競爭力和製造業有三個非常重要的考慮因素：維護USMCA的原則，與我們的主要貿易夥伴達成正確的貿易協定，並延續使美國成為世界航空航天領先者的全球框架。

As external environment has become more unpredictable, we remain focused on what we can control, and we have made significant progress in planning and executing our separation into three industry-leading public companies. This preparation has included key leadership appointments to ensure that we have the right people in place to continue our portfolio transformation.

隨著外部環境變得越來越難以預測，我們仍然專注於我們能夠控制的事情，並且在規劃和執行將公司拆分為三家行業領先的上市公司方面取得了重大進展。這項準備工作包括任命關鍵領導，以確保我們擁有合適的人才來繼續我們的投資組合轉型。

Let's turn to slide 3 to discuss a few important changes announced earlier this month. Su Ping Lu will succeed Anne Madden as Senior Vice President and General Counsel while retaining her role as Corporate Secretary. Su has more than 15 years of legal experience with Honeywell across many of our business lines and geographies, will further strengthen our executive leadership team.

讓我們翻到幻燈片 3 來討論本月早些時候宣布的一些重要變化。蘇萍盧將接替安妮馬登擔任高級副總裁兼總法律顧問，同時保留公司秘書一職。蘇先生在霍尼韋爾的多個業務線和地區擁有超過 15 年的法律經驗，將進一步加強我們的執行領導團隊。

Anne will transition into a new role as Senior Vice President of Portfolio Transformation and Senior Advisor, where her experience leading over 100 acquisitions as Honeywell's Global Head of M&A will prove invaluable during our continued portfolio optimization.

安妮將轉任新職位，擔任投資組合轉型高級副總裁兼高級顧問，她作為霍尼韋爾全球併購主管領導 100 多次收購的經驗將在我們持續優化投資組合的過程中發揮寶貴作用。

Also, our Board of Directors has elected Stephen Williamson to join us as an Independent Director and Audit Committee Member. Stephen's decade as CFO of Thermo Fisher Scientific will broaden and deepen the expertise of Board.

此外，我們的董事會已選舉 Stephen Williamson 加入我們，擔任獨立董事和審計委員會成員。史蒂芬擔任賽默飛世爾科技公司財務長的十年將拓寬和深化董事會的專業知識。

I want to personally congratulate these three individuals on their new roles. And I look forward to working closely with each one of them.

我要親自祝賀這三位人士擔任新的職位。我期待與他們每個人密切合作。

Let's turn to slide 4 to discuss update on separation. We hold strong conviction that separating Automation, Aerospace, and Advanced Materials can unlock significant value for all Honeywell stakeholders by best positioning each standalone public company for long-term profitable growth. Following our announcement in February, Honeywell has taken many steps forward in preparation for these transactions.

讓我們翻到投影片 4 來討論分離的最新情況。我們堅信，將自動化、航空航天和先進材料業務分開可以為霍尼韋爾所有利益相關者釋放巨大的價值，使每家獨立的上市公司都能獲得最佳的長期盈利增長定位。自從二月宣布這一消息以來，霍尼韋爾已為這些交易做好了許多準備。

First, we determined a tax-free spin of Honeywell Aerospace will be most efficient way to separate our Automation and Aerospace businesses. Second, the Board confirmed that I will lead the Automation company going forward as it's where I've spent bulk of my carrier and where I have a specific vision for the future. At the right time, Board will evaluate the future leadership of Honeywell Aerospace as well.

首先，我們確定霍尼韋爾航空航太的免稅分拆將是分離我們的自動化和航空航太業務的最有效方式。其次，董事會確認我將領導自動化公司向前發展，因為這是我職涯的大部分時間所在，也是我對未來有明確願景的地方。在適當的時候，董事會也將評估霍尼韋爾航空航太的未來領導層。

Third, we established dedicated separation management office run by experts in corporate transformation. These entities have empowerment to maintain the value of our businesses, minimize separation costs, and achieve our communicated timelines. Most importantly, they will ensure that our operations leaders are focused solely on serving our customers and achieving our financial targets.

第三是成立了專門的分離式管理辦公室，由企業轉型專家負責。這些實體有權維護我們業務的價值，最大限度地降低分離成本，並實現我們傳達的時間表。最重要的是，他們將確保我們的營運領導者專注於服務我們的客戶並實現我們的財務目標。

Fourth, we appointed an accomplished leadership team, what will be called Solstice Advanced Materials. Collectively, they bring years of experience leading public companies, operating specialty chemical businesses and utilizing Honeywell Accelerator operating system. Solstice will be headquartered in New Jersey, where the current leadership team for the business sits.

第四，我們任命了一支經驗豐富的領導團隊，該團隊將被命名為 Solstice Advanced Materials。他們共同擁有多年領導上市公司、經營特種化學品業務和利用霍尼韋爾加速器操作系統的經驗。Solstice 的總部將設在新澤西州，該公司目前的領導團隊也駐紮在那裡。

Fifth, we'll continue deploying capital as an active buyer of our own shares, which offer tremendous value at recent levels. We have repurchased about $3 billion of our shares already this year and will continue to repurchase our stock opportunistically.

第五，我們將繼續部署資本，積極購買我們自己的股票，這些股票在近期的水平上具有巨大的價值。我們今年已經回購了約 30 億美元的股票，並將繼續適時回購。

And lastly, in March, we announced the acquisition of Sundyne as we continue to optimize our portfolio. If you turn to slide 5, I'll discuss how this deal fits into with our portfolio transformation.

最後，我們在三月宣布收購 Sundyne，以繼續優化我們的產品組合。如果您翻到投影片 5，我將討論這筆交易如何適應我們的投資組合轉型。

As you can see, Sundyne will be the fifth strategic bolt-on acquisition since I became Honeywell's CEO, along with a couple of strategically important technology tuck-ins. Sundyne meets each of the common sense criteria we have set in. It's the right size. It exceeds our financial return hurdles. It improves our business profile by boosting both organic growth and segment margins. And Honeywell is a natural owner of the business as Sundyne addresses a closely adjusted market to our existing ESS offering, which will allow us to sell a more robust and complementary portfolio of solutions to our customers, particularly in LNG.

正如您所看到的，Sundyne 將是我擔任霍尼韋爾執行長以來的第五次策略性附加收購，同時還有幾項具有重要戰略意義的技術收購。Sundyne 符合我們設定的每個常識標準。尺寸合適。它超出了我們的財務回報障礙。它透過提高有機成長和分部利潤率來改善我們的業務狀況。霍尼韋爾是該業務的天然所有者，因為 Sundyne 針對的是我們現有 ESS 產品的一個緊密調整的市場，這將使我們能夠向客戶銷售更強大、更具互補性的解決方案組合，特別是在液化天然氣領域。

We have meticulously built a pipeline of acquisition targets with compelling financial characteristics over the past several years, and we'll continue to pursue them if they become available to us. Given everything we have in flight, only the deals that are time-sensitive will be pursued for now. Buying these differentiated businesses with strong aftermarket content and secular growth drivers at a reasonable price is a powerful use of capital. Our 2024 acquisitions are now increasingly incorporated into our operations and performing admirably well with the bulk of integration work behind us, reinforcing that we have the right M&A process in place to create incremental value.

過去幾年來，我們精心建構了一系列具有引人注目的財務特徵的收購目標，如果有合適的收購對象，我們將繼續追求它們。考慮到我們目前的所有計劃，我們目前只會執行那些時間緊迫的交易。以合理的價格收購這些具有強大售後市場內容和長期成長動力的差異化企業是資本的有效利用方式。我們 2024 年的收購現在越來越多地納入我們的營運中，並且在大部分整合工作完成後表現非常出色，這再次證明我們已擁有正確的併購流程來創造增量價值。

While we continue to evaluate acquisitions, we also look forward to opportunistically exit businesses, such as Personal Protective Equipment, that do not fit into our business model or strategic priorities. The PPE sale will improve margins and organic growth.

在我們繼續評估收購的同時，我們也期待機會退出不符合我們的商業模式或策略重點的業務，例如個人防護設備。PPE 的銷售將提高利潤率和有機成長。

I will now move to slide 6 to address how we view the present global uncertainty. As a company, we remain confident in our ability to navigate the current trade environment. For decades, we have positioned each of our business lines to serve their local markets. This local-for-local strategy reduces our overall exposure to international trade and geopolitical tensions.

我現在轉到投影片 6，討論我們如何看待當前的全球不確定性。作為一家公司，我們對自己應對當前貿易環境的能力充滿信心。幾十年來，我們一直將每條業務線定位為服務當地市場。這種以本地為本地的策略減少了我們整體上受國際貿易和地緣政治緊張局勢的影響。

Based on tariffs in place today, our approximate 2025 exposure is about $500 million before taking any mitigation measures. Our better-tested Accelerator operating system can quickly identify areas of concern and implement mitigation efforts. Then we pursue consistent and clear communication with our suppliers, customers, and partners to maximize operational stability for all parties.

根據目前實施的關稅，在採取任何緩解措施之前，我們 2025 年的風險敞口約為 5 億美元。我們經過更充分測試的加速器作業系統可以快速識別關注領域並實施緩解措施。然後，我們與供應商、客戶和合作夥伴保持一致和清晰的溝通，以最大限度地提高各方的營運穩定性。

Through this well-developed operational systems and our established local-for-local footprint, we are confident we can fully offset the impact of current tariffs and are well positioned to manage future trade uncertainty. This is evident in today's results and our confidence in maintaining and raising guidance in spite of these offsetting headwinds.

透過這個完善的營運系統和我們已建立的在地化足跡，我們有信心能夠完全抵消當前關稅的影響，並能夠很好地應對未來的貿易不確定性。這在今天的業績中得到了明顯體現，儘管面臨這些不利因素，我們仍有信心維持和提高業績指引。

Most importantly, whenever elevated global tensions do subside, we remain in excellent position to capitalize on our record backlog and continue our growth trajectory.

最重要的是，無論何時全球緊張局勢消退，我們仍處於有利地位，可以利用創紀錄的積壓訂單並繼續保持成長軌跡。

Now let me turn over to Mike to discuss our excellent first-quarter results.

現在請容許我請麥克來討論一下我們出色的第一季業績。

Thank you, Vimal, and good morning to everyone joining us. Let me begin on slide 7.

謝謝你，維馬爾，大家早安。我從第 7 張投影片開始。

We had a very strong start to the year in the first quarter, exceeding the high end of our organic sales, segment margin, and adjusted earnings per share guidance. Our results demonstrate tremendous effort from our commercial teams, successful productivity initiatives, and excellent supply chain coordination with our partners in a rapidly changing marketplace.

我們今年第一季的開局非常強勁，超過了有機銷售額、分部利潤率和調整後每股收益預期的上限。我們的成果證明了我們的商業團隊付出了巨大的努力、成功的生產力舉措以及在快速變化的市場中與合作夥伴的出色供應鏈協調。

First-quarter sales grew 4% organically led by Aerospace Technologies, where both our commercial aftermarket and defense and space businesses experienced double-digit growth. Building solutions remained a significant contributor as well.

第一季銷售額有機成長 4%，主要得益於航空技術業務，其中商用售後市場和國防及航太業務均實現了兩位數成長。建築解決方案仍然是一個重要的貢獻者。

Segment margin remained flat from the prior year at 23%, with improvement in Building Automation and Energy and Sustainability Solutions, offset by pressure in Aerospace Technologies and Industrial Automation.

該部門利潤率與去年持平，為 23%，其中，樓宇自動化和能源與永續性解決方案有所改善，但被航空航天技術和工業自動化的壓力所抵消。

I would like to highlight that this margin performance includes an increase in our research and development spend of 50 basis points from the previous year to 4.5% of sales. We continue to balance current period profitability with our organic growth initiatives.

我想強調的是，這項利潤率表現包括我們的研發支出比前一年增加了 50 個基點，達到銷售額的 4.5%。我們將繼續平衡當期獲利能力和有機成長計劃。

Segment profit for the quarter grew 8% year over year, aided by the inclusion of our 2024 acquisitions, which are performing ahead of the initial expectations. Earnings per share for the first quarter was $2.22 per share, flat from the previous year, while adjusted earnings per share was $2.51 per share, up 7% year over year. [Profit -- segment profit more than] offset headwinds from interest rate expense, foreign exchange, and taxes. You will find a bridge of adjusted EPS from 1Q '24 to 1Q '25 in the appendix of this presentation.

本季分部獲利年增 8%，這得益於我們 2024 年收購的業績超出了最初的預期。第一季每股收益為 2.22 美元，與上年持平，調整後每股收益為 2.51 美元，年增 7%。 [利潤－分部利潤超過]抵銷了利率支出、外匯和稅收帶來的不利影響。您可以在本簡報的附錄中找到 2024 年第一季至 2025 年第一季調整後每股收益的橋樑。

Orders were $10.6 billion in the quarter, up 3% year over year, excluding the effect of acquisitions, [while] supported by organic backlog growth of 8% to a new record of $36.1 billion. Orders growth was led by longer-cycle Building Automation and aerospace businesses.

本季訂單金額為 106 億美元，年成長 3%，不包括收購的影響，同時受到有機積壓訂單成長 8% 的支持，達到 361 億美元的新紀錄。訂單成長主要由週期較長的樓宇自動化和航空航天業務推動。

First-quarter cash flow was more than $300 million, over $100 million above the prior year, driven primarily by better adjusted earnings. We're utilizing our cash flow and strong balance sheet to dynamically allocate capital, including returning capital to shareholders.

第一季的現金流超過 3 億美元，比前一年高出 1 億多美元，主要得益於調整後的收益有所改善。我們正在利用我們的現金流量和強大的資產負債表來動態分配資本，包括向股東返還資本。

In the first quarter, we repurchased nearly $2 billion of our own shares at prices we find highly compelling. And we bought back roughly another $1 billion during the month of April, representing about 2% of our shares outstanding in 2025. We also paid more than $700 million of dividends in the first quarter. We are investing in our business both organically and inorganically as we allocated approximately $250 million of capital projects and announced the acquisition of Sundyne.

第一季度，我們以極具吸引力的價格回購了近 20 億美元的股票。我們在 4 月又回購了約 10 億美元的股票，約占我們 2025 年流通股的 2%。我們還在第一季支付了超過7億美元的股息。我們正在以有機和無機的方式對我們的業務進行投資，我們分配了約 2.5 億美元的資本項目並宣布收購 Sundyne。

Now let's spend some time discussing our first-quarter performance by business. In Aerospace Technologies, sales in the first quarter were up 9% organically year over year, exceeding our prior expectations. Better output as a result of supply chain improvements and robust demand from air transport customers to support increased flight activity drove 15% sales growth in the commercial aftermarket business.

現在讓我們花點時間討論一下我們第一季的業務表現。在航空航天技術領域，第一季的銷售額年增 9%，超出了我們先前的預期。供應鏈改善帶來的產出提升以及航空運輸客戶對增加航班活動的強勁需求推動了商業售後市場業務銷售額成長 15%。

Defense and space, aided by increased output and elevated global defense spending in a world of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, delivered a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth despite challenging comps and expiring government programs a year ago. Aerospace industry demand continues to outpace supplies, supporting our orders growth of 9% and a book-to-bill of 1.1.

在地緣政治持續不確定的背景下，國防和太空領域在產量增加和全球國防開支增加的推動下，儘管一年前競爭激烈且政府項目到期，但仍連續第五個季度實現了兩位數增長。航空航太業的需求持續超過供應，支持我們的訂單成長 9% 且訂單出貨比達到 1.1。

First-quarter segment margin contracted 190 basis points to 26.3%, but matched our expectations as mix pressure and acquisition integration costs from CAES were partially offset by productivity actions.

第一季分部利潤率萎縮 190 個基點至 26.3%，但符合我們的預期，因為 CAES 帶來的組合壓力和收購整合成本被生產力行動部分抵銷。

Industrial Automation sales declined 2% organically in the first quarter, led by lower demand in personal protective equipment, particularly in China and Europe. Warehouse and workflow solutions returned to growth in the quarter, up 5%, as demand for warehouse automation continues to stabilize and prior-year comparisons get easier.

第一季工業自動化銷售額有機下降 2%，主要原因是個人防護裝備需求下降，尤其是中國和歐洲。由於倉庫自動化需求持續穩定，且與去年同期的比較變得更加容易，倉庫和工作流程解決方案在本季度恢復成長，成長了 5%。

Our sensing business demonstrated recovery in the second consecutive quarter with double-digit growth in both healthcare and aerospace and defense end-markets. Process Solutions sales were flat as continued strength in life cycle solutions and services and compressor controls was offset by modest declines in smart energy and thermal solutions.

我們的感測業務連續第二季呈現復甦，在醫療保健、航空航太和國防終端市場均實現兩位數成長。製程解決方案銷售額持平，因為生命週期解決方案和服務以及壓縮機控制的持續強勁表現被智慧能源和熱解決方案的適度下滑所抵消。

In productivity solutions and services, weakness in Europe led to sales decline of 1% year over year when excluding the impact of the final year license and settlement payments. Segment margin in Industrial Automation contracted 130 basis points to 17.8%, driven by receivables write-downs and volume deleverage, partially offset by productivity actions.

在生產力解決方案和服務方面，歐洲的疲軟導致銷售額年減 1%（不包括最後一年許可證和結算付款的影響）。工業自動化部門利潤率收縮 130 個基點至 17.8%，這主要是由於應收帳款減記和數量去槓桿，但被生產力行動部分抵消。

Building Automation delivered another solid quarter and outpaced our expectations, up 8% organically, led by second consecutive quarter above double-digit growth in building solutions and mid-single-digit growth in building products.

樓宇自動化再創佳績，表現穩健，超出我們的預期，有機增長 8%，其中，樓宇解決方案連續第二個季度實現兩位數以上增長，樓宇產品實現中等個位數增長。

Solutions continued to benefit from its robust backlog, up 11% in the quarter, led by over 30% growth in the Middle East and mid-teens growth in North America. Building products growth of 6% was driven by double-digit organic growth in fire and sustained strength in security.

解決方案業務繼續受惠於其強勁的積壓訂單，本季成長 11%，其中中東地區的成長超過 30%，北美地區的成長達到十幾歲。建築產品成長 6%，這得益於防火性能的兩位數有機成長和安全性能的持續增強。

Overall, orders continue to be an encouraging indicator for Building Automation with the first quarter marking a fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Building Automation margin expanded 150 basis points, driven by volume leverage, productivity actions and accretion from access solutions.

總體而言，訂單繼續成為樓宇自動化的一個令人鼓舞的指標，第一季已連續第四個季度實現同比增長。受銷售槓桿、生產力行動和門禁解決方案成長的推動，樓宇自動化利潤率擴大了 150 個基點。

Energy and Sustainability Solutions sales declined 2% organically in the first quarter. Strong quarter in petrochemical and refining projects as well as sustainability projects helped UOP deliver 2% organic sales growth year over year.

第一季能源和永續發展解決方案銷售額有機下降 2%。本季度，石化和煉油項目以及永續發展項目的強勁表現幫助 UOP 實現了 2% 的有機銷售額年增長。

Advanced materials sales declined 4% as challenging prior-year comps in flooring products offset broad-based strength in specialty chemicals and materials, highlighted by over 20% growth in Spectra. Orders were a bright spot for advanced materials up 7% year over year, driven by double-digit growth in foreign products.

先進材料銷售額下降 4%，因為地板產品去年同期的挑戰抵消了特種化學品和材料的全面強勢，其中 Spectra 的成長超過 20%。先進材料訂單量成為一大亮點，受國外產品兩位數成長的推動，訂單量較去年同期成長7%。

This quarter marked a second full quarter of ownership of the LNG business acquired from Air Products, which continues to grow at accretive sales and margin rates. ESS segment margin expanded 230 basis points in the quarter, led by productivity actions and the year-over-year benefit from the LNG acquisition, partially offset by cost inflation.

本季標誌著我們從空氣產品公司收購液化天然氣業務的第二個完整季度，該業務繼續以遞增的銷售額和利潤率成長。本季度，ESS 部門利潤率擴大了 230 個基點，這主要得益於生產力舉措和 LNG 收購帶來的同比收益，但成本通膨部分抵消了這一影響。

Taken all together, we still see long-cycle businesses outperforming short-cycle ones, while record backlog levels and best-in-class operating system position us well for future periods.

總體而言，我們仍然看到長週期業務的表現優於短週期業務，而創紀錄的積壓水平和一流的操作系統為我們在未來時期奠定了良好的基礎。

I'll now move to slide 8 to talk about our second-quarter and full-year guidance. Although a strong first quarter like we delivered would typically indicate improved expectations for the remainder of the year, we cannot ignore changes in the geopolitical environment that Vimal mentioned in his earlier remarks, and believe that continuing to take a pragmatic approach to our guidance is appropriate given the increasing global uncertainty.

我現在轉到第 8 張投影片來討論我們的第二季和全年指導。儘管像我們這樣強勁的第一季業績通常預示著對今年剩餘時間的預期將會改善，但我們不能忽視維馬爾在先前講話中提到的地緣政治環境的變化，並且認為，鑑於全球不確定性日益增加，繼續採取務實的指導方針是適當的。

Rest assured, Honeywell is actively and successfully addressing both potential cost and demand challenges to mitigate their impact on our business. We have a playbook of rapid implementation of sourcing, pricing, and productivity changes.

請放心，霍尼韋爾正在積極並成功地應對潛在的成本和需求挑戰，以減輕它們對我們業務的影響。我們有快速實施採購、定價和生產力變革的劇本。

As a reminder, our local-for-local approach to maintaining supply chain has been our strategy for more than two decades and is a very mature part of our operating system. This structure and our leading market positions will help mitigate much of our recent tariff changes across the portfolio. But we're not immune. We'll continue to balance protecting margins and sustaining volume across our end-markets.

提醒一下，我們維護供應鏈的在地化方法已經是我們二十多年的策略，並且是我們營運系統中非常成熟的一部分。這種結構和我們領先的市場地位將有助於緩解我們近期整個產品組合的關稅變化。但我們也不能倖免。我們將繼續在保護利潤率和維持終端市場銷售之間取得平衡。

Now let's discuss what this means for 2025 guidance. For clarity, our guidance now assumes the impact of announcing tariffs net of mitigation actions as well as additional contingency for potential end-market demand weakness triggered by this uncertainty. We are maintaining our prior outlook calling for organic sales growth of 2% to 5% for the year or 1% to 4% when excluding the prior-year impact from the Bombardier agreement, with better 1Q performance being offset by a prudent guidance posture given greater uncertainty for the rest of the year.

現在讓我們討論一下這對 2025 年指導意味著什麼。為了清楚起見，我們的指導現在假設宣布關稅的影響扣除緩解措施以及由這種不確定性引發的潛在終端市場需求疲軟的額外應急措施。我們維持先前的預測，預計全年有機銷售額將增長 2% 至 5%，若不計龐巴迪協議對上年的影響，則將增長 1% 至 4%，鑑於今年剩餘時間的不確定性較大，第一季度的較好業績將被審慎的指導態度所抵消。

As we contemplate the potential influence of uncertainty on our customers' activity, we are assuming an impact to organic sales for the remainder of the year approaching 1% to segment profit of about 2%, and to EPS of about $0.18, comparing to the guidance we laid out in February. Full-year sales are now projected to be $39.6 billion to $40.5 billion as favorable movement in foreign exchange rates since year-end are being offset by two fewer months of revenue from our PPE business given an early May exit rather than end of June.

當我們考慮不確定性對客戶活動的潛在影響時，我們假設對今年剩餘時間的有機銷售額的影響接近 1%，分部利潤約為 2%，每股收益約為 0.18 美元，與我們 2 月份制定的指導相比。目前預計全年銷售額為 396 億美元至 405 億美元，因為自年底以來外匯匯率的有利變動被我們的 PPE 業務因 5 月初而不是 6 月底退出而減少兩個月的收入所抵消。

Our guidance does not incorporate the acquisition of Sundyne, which is still expected to close in the second quarter. We anticipate year-over-year organic sales improvement to be relatively balanced across the next three quarters when excluding the impact of last year's Bombardier agreement, which will only influence the fourth-quarter comparison.

我們的指導並未包含對 Sundyne 的收購，預計該收購仍將在第二季完成。我們預計，如果排除去年龐巴迪協議的影響，未來三個季度的有機銷售額年增幅將相對均衡，而該協議只會影響第四季度的銷售額。

Consequently, we also see second-quarter sales growing 1% to 4% organically, which translates into sales of $9.8 billion to $10.1 billion with one more month of PPE operations included or a $200 million impact compared to a full quarter. We now anticipate our overall segment margin to (technical difficulty) basis points this year or to be down 10 basis points to up 20 basis points ex-Bombardier. Changes to our margin outlook from prior expectations are focused in IA and ESS, given their relatively higher exposure to China trade. For the second quarter, segment margin is expected to be in the range of 22.8% to 23.2%, down 20 basis points to up 20 basis points from the prior year as margin improvement in IA and BA is offset by contraction in aero and ESS.

因此，我們也看到第二季銷售額有機成長 1% 至 4%，這意味著銷售額將達到 98 億美元至 101 億美元，如果算上多一個月的 PPE 運營，與整個季度相比將產生 2 億美元的影響。我們現在預計今年我們整體分部的利潤率將達到（技術難度）個基點，或下降 10 個基點至上升 20 個基點（不包括龐巴迪）。鑑於 IA 和 ESS 對中國貿易的曝險相對較大，我們對利潤率前景的預期發生了變化。第二季度，部門利潤率預計將在 22.8% 至 23.2% 之間，較上年下降 20 個基點至上升 20 個基點，因為 IA 和 BA 的利潤率提高被航空和 ESS 的萎縮所抵消。

For the year, we now expect earnings per share of $10.20 to $10.50, up 3% to 6% or down 1% to up 2% excluding the prior-year Bombardier agreement impact. Earnings per share in the second quarter is anticipated to be in the range of $2.60 and $2.70, up 4% to up 8% year over year. I will provide additional details for full-year EPS in a few minutes.

對於今年，我們目前預計每股收益為 10.20 美元至 10.50 美元，增長 3% 至 6%，或下降 1% 至增長 2%，不包括上一年龐巴迪協議的影響。預計第二季每股收益在 2.60 美元至 2.70 美元之間，年增 4% 至 8%。我將在幾分鐘內提供有關全年每股收益的更多詳細資訊。

Free cash flow for the year is still expected to be $5.4 billion to $5.8 billion, down 2% to up 5% ex-Bombardier and roughly in line with earnings growth. You can reference the 2025 free cash flow bridge in the appendix.

預計全年自由現金流仍將達到 54 億美元至 58 億美元，年減 2% 至成長 5%（不含龐巴迪），與獲利成長大致持平。您可以參考附錄中的 2025 年自由現金流橋。

Beyond our CapEx and dividend commitment, we plan to continue to deploy capital diligently over the course of the year, funding both attractive, time-sensitive acquisitions such as Sundyne as well as being opportunistic on the repurchase of our shares. Year to date, we have already bought back $3 billion worth of our stock, including $1 billion in April, putting us on the path to reduce our net share count for the year by 2%, far exceeding our 1% annual commitment.

除了我們的資本支出和股息承諾之外，我們還計劃在今年繼續勤勉地部署資本，為 Sundyne 等有吸引力且時間敏感的收購提供資金，並抓住機會回購我們的股票。今年迄今為止，我們已經回購了價值 30 億美元的股票，其中包括 4 月份的 10 億美元，這讓我們有望將今年的淨股數減少 2%，遠遠超過我們 1% 的年度承諾。

In summary, we're taking a clear-eyed look at the remainder of 2025 to set appropriate expectations for our business given all the information available to us today. We are also not pausing the investment needed to fuel the future of innovation growth.

總而言之，我們將根據今天掌握的所有信息，清醒地展望 2025 年剩餘時間，為我們的業務設定適當的預期。我們也不會停止推動未來創新成長所需的投資。

I'll now turn to slide 9 to spend a few minutes on our outlook by business, discussing high-level expectations by segment with additional details by SBU covered in the commentary portion of the slide.

現在，我將翻到第 9 張幻燈片，花幾分鐘時間介紹一下我們各業務的展望，討論各細分市場的高層預期，並在幻燈片的評論部分按 SBU 介紹更多詳細信息。

For Aerospace Technologies, we are holding our 2025 full-year outlook for organic sales growth in the high-single-digit range or mid-single-digit to high-single-digit when excluding the impact of last year's Bombardier agreement. Aero is expected to maintain its position as the growth leader for Honeywell, driven by ongoing ramp in flight activity and global defense spending.

對於航空航太技術業務，我們預計 2025 年全年有機銷售額成長將在高個位數範圍內，或中個位數至高個位數（不包括去年龐巴迪協議的影響）。在飛行活動和全球國防開支援續增長的推動下，航空業務預計將繼續保持霍尼韋爾成長領先地位。

For the second quarter, organic sales are expected to be up in the mid-single-digit to high-single-digit range, led by strength in our commercial aftermarket business as supply chain analog continues to support our (technical difficulty) Margins for the quarter and the year should be roughly 26% as CAES integration headwinds temporarily bring the segment below the run rate levels.

對於第二季度，有機銷售額預計將成長中個位數至高個位數，這主要得益於我們商用售後市場業務的強勁增長，因為供應鏈模擬繼續支持我們的（技術難度）本季度和全年的利潤率應該在 26% 左右，因為 CAES 整合逆風暫時使該部門低於運行率水平。

We are lowering the 2025 sales outlook for Industrial Automation to down mid-single-digits year over year as the trajectory of short-cycle orders and customer CapEx decisions has become increasingly uncertain in the current environment. We expect IA margins to be up modestly versus the prior year as we work to mitigate a potentially weaker demand environment and incremental costs related to tariffs with additional commercial excellence and productivity actions.

由於當前環境下短週期訂單和客戶資本支出決策的軌跡變得越來越不確定，我們將工業自動化 2025 年的銷售前景下調至同比中個位數下降。我們預計，IA 利潤率將比上年略有上升，因為我們致力於透過額外的商業卓越和生產力行動來緩解潛在的較弱的需求環境和與關稅相關的增量成本。

We also anticipate second-quarter sales to be down mid-single-digits year over year as strong end-market towers in sensing and continued growth in warehouse automation are offset by muted demand growth in productivity solutions services and personal productive equipment. Industrial Automation margin is expected to expand as the PPE exit, commercial excellence, and productivity more than offset volume deleverage and cost inflation.

我們也預期第二季銷售額將年減中個位數，因為感測終端市場的強勁表現和倉庫自動化的持續成長被生產力解決方案服務和個人生產設備需求成長放緩所抵消。隨著 PPE 的退出、商業卓越性和生產力的提高足以抵消產量去槓桿和成本通膨的影響，工業自動化利潤率預計將擴大。

For Building Automation, we are raising our 2025 sales outlook to mid-single-digit growth, given stand-up performance in both long- and short-cycle businesses in the first quarter. Our sales outlook for the remainder of the year remains largely unchanged as momentum from new product innovation and robust demand in high-growth regions is partially tempered by global uncertainty for our business segment with the most international exposure.

對於樓宇自動化，鑑於第一季長週期和短週期業務的良好表現，我們將 2025 年的銷售預期上調至中等個位數成長。我們對今年剩餘時間的銷售前景基本保持不變，因為對於我們國際影響力最大的業務部門來說，新產品創新和高成長地區強勁需求帶來的勢頭在一定程度上受到全球不確定性的影響。

In the second quarter, we expect sales to be up low mid-single-digits with sequential and year-over-year growth in both solutions and products. Margins for the quarter and for the year should expand as volume leverage, accretion from access solutions, and productivity actions more than offset cost inflation.

在第二季度，我們預計銷售額將成長中低個位數，解決方案和產品都將達到季比和年成長。由於銷售槓桿、存取解決方案的成長以及生產力行動抵消了成本上漲，本季和全年的利潤率應該會擴大。

In Energy and Sustainability Solutions, we expect 2025 organic sales growth to remain in our previously guided low-single-digit range year over year, led by strength in UOP and ongoing momentum in SDS. We continue to build on our robust pipeline from sustained global demand in projects despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

在能源和永續發展解決方案方面，我們預計 2025 年有機銷售額將年增率將維持在我們先前預測的低個位數範圍內，這主要得益於 UOP 的強勁表​​現和 SDS 的持續成長動能。儘管宏觀經濟仍存在不確定性，但我們仍將繼續鞏固強大的專案儲備，以滿足全球持續的專案需求。

We anticipate ESS margin to remain flat as cost inflation is offset by productivity actions and the full-year benefit from the LNG acquisition. For the second quarter, organic sales should be up sequentially with flat to up year-over-year growth as backlog conversion is partially offset by the final quarter of difficult foreign comps for the year. Margin is expected to contract from the prior year as a result of timing impacts but remain in line with the first quarter.

我們預計 ESS 利潤率將保持平穩，因為成本通膨被生產力行動和 LNG 收購帶來的全年收益所抵消。對於第二季度，有機銷售額應會環比成長，年成長持平或上升，因為積壓訂單的轉換被今年最後一個季度艱難的海外同店銷售所部分抵消。由於時間因素的影響，預計利潤率將較上年有所收縮，但仍與第一季持平。

Now let's turn to slide 10 to go over our 2025 EPS bridge. Walking from 2024 adjusted EPS ex-Bombardier to the midpoint of our 2025 EPS guidance range involves a few moving pieces. We see organic segment profit growth adding $0.13 per share to 2025 earnings, down from our prior guide. The first-quarter surpassed our outlook, but that will be more than offset by our more prudent posture towards guidance for the remainder of the year, driven by geopolitical changes seen over the past few weeks and their possible impact on customer demand, particularly in the back half of the year.

現在讓我們翻到第 10 張投影片來回顧一下 2025 年 EPS 大橋。從 2024 年調整後的每股盈餘（不包括龐巴迪）走到我們 2025 年每股盈餘指引範圍的中點涉及一些變動因素。我們預計有機部門利潤成長將為 2025 年每股收益增加 0.13 美元，低於我們先前的預期。第一季的業績超出了我們的預期，但受過去幾週地緣政治變化及其對客戶需求（尤其是在下半年）可能產生的影響，我們對今年剩餘時間的預期將採取更為審慎的態度，這將抵消這一影響。

Contributions from our 2024 acquisitions are still expected to add approximately $0.33 per share to 2025 EPS. Notably, expectations for these businesses have shown stability at levels ahead of our initial plans at the time of purchase. Again, I remind everyone that the Sundyne acquisition is not yet included in guidance for the year.

我們 2024 年收購的貢獻預計仍將為 2025 年每股收益增加約 0.33 美元。值得注意的是，對這些業務的預期已顯示出穩定，並且超出了我們購買時的初步計劃。我再次提醒大家，Sundyne 收購尚未納入今年的指導範圍。

The sale of our PPE business, for which we now model an early May close, will drag down earnings by $0.07 for the year. So it will prove beneficial to segment margin and organic sales growth.

我們預計 PPE 業務的出售將於 5 月初結束，這將拖累今年的收益 0.07 美元。因此，這將有利於分部利潤率和有機銷售額的成長。

Foreign exchange movements since February have modestly reduced the expected currency headwind to earnings for the year to $0.05 per share. Please see the appendix of this presentation for a bridge with the sales impact of FX.

自二月以來，外匯走勢已將預計的貨幣對全年收益的不利影響輕微降至每股 0.05 美元。請參閱本簡報的附錄，以了解外匯對銷售的影響。

Below the line items, the difference between segment profit and income before tax remains the largest headwind to year-over-year earnings growth at $0.52 per share. Pension income for the year is still expected to be $550 million, $50 million less than 2024 because of one-time item in Europe. The related transaction ended up closing early in the second quarter rather than the first quarter as anticipated previously, which shifted a negative income effect.

在項目之下，分部利潤與稅前收入之間的差額仍然是每股 0.52 美元的同比盈利增長的最大阻力。預計今年的退休金收入仍為 5.5 億美元，由於歐洲的一次性項目，比 2024 年少 5,000 萬美元。相關交易最終在第二季度初完成，而不是先前預期的第一季度，這產生了負面收入效應。

Repositioning expenses are now expected to be $125 million to $225 million as roughly half of the lower first quarter spending is assumed to occur later in the year. Lastly, other below-the-line expenses anticipated to be modestly higher at $1.35 billion to $1.4 billion, increasing from 2024 on account of higher interest expense from last year's acquisitions and the first quarter's accelerating share repurchase.

目前預計重新定位費用為 1.25 億美元至 2.25 億美元，因為預計第一季較低支出的約一半將在今年稍後發生。最後，其他線下支出預計將小幅上漲至 13.5 億美元至 14 億美元，由於去年收購產生的利息支出增加以及第一季股票回購加速，該數字將從 2024 年開始增加。

Full-year tax rate expectations have not changed. So we anticipate a lower rate in the second quarter, offset by higher third-quarter rate. Finally, our full-year average share count expectation has been reduced by 12 million shares, increasing the tailwind to EPS to $0.19.

全年稅率預期沒有變動。因此，我們預計第二季的利率會較低，但第三季的利率會上升。最後，我們對全年平均股票數量預期減少了 1,200 萬股，每股盈餘的順風效應增加至 0.19 美元。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Vimal.

現在我將把電話轉回給維馬爾。

Thanks, Mike. In closing, our performance in the first-quarter exceeded all our communicated targets on the strength of our business model and the dedication of our more than 100,000 future shapers around the globe. Our vast installed base continues to provide stable demand for our solutions in this time of uncertainty.

謝謝，麥克。最後，憑藉我們強大的商業模式和全球超過 100,000 名未來塑造者的奉獻精神，我們第一季的業績超出了我們公佈的所有目標。在這個不確定的時期，我們龐大的安裝基礎繼續為我們的解決方案提供穩定的需求。

Simultaneously, we are investing substantial resources to expand further into high-growth verticals to develop innovative new products and services and to grow our supply capabilities to fulfill our record backlog even as we maintain promised level of profitability. In updating our 2025 outlook, we sought to prudently balance the strength of our first-quarter results with the unfolding economic uncertainty in the global economy.

同時，我們正在投入大量資源，進一步擴展到高成長垂直領域，開發創新的新產品和服務，並提高我們的供應能力，以滿足我們創紀錄的積壓訂單，同時保持承諾的盈利水平。在更新我們的 2025 年展望時，我們力求審慎地平衡第一季業績的強勁程度與全球經濟中不斷顯現的經濟不確定性。

Taking both into account, we are raising the midpoint of our 2025 EPS guidance. The work to separate Honeywell into three standalone public companies has begun in earnest and the value creation opportunity from greater strategic focus, financial flexibility, and tailored capital priorities for each of the businesses are becoming clearer each day. Our separation teams kicked off the process with the preparatory spins to lay out clearly the road ahead and the large obstacles to overcome.

考慮到這兩點，我們提高了 2025 年每股盈餘預期的中點。將霍尼韋爾拆分為三家獨立上市公司的工作已正式開始，透過提高策略重點、增強財務靈活性以及為每家企業量身定制的資本優先事項，創造價值的機會也日益清晰。我們的分離團隊透過準備旋轉啟動了這個過程，清楚地展示了前方的道路和需要克服的巨大障礙。

Such planning will allow us to move both quickly and effectively in the months ahead, while ensuring our businesses do not miss a beat. In this way, we'll be certain to deliver our commitment to our shareholders, customers and our employees.

這樣的規劃將使我們能夠在未來幾個月內快速有效地採取行動，同時確保我們的業務不會有任何問題。這樣，我們一定能履行對股東、顧客和員工的承諾。

One way in which we can further maximize our value as we work through our spin-off transaction is to continue to selectively utilize our strong balance sheet and cash flow generation for a creative bolt-on acquisition. In view of the availability of such deal, we'll believe our shares offer tremendous value at recent levels.

在進行分拆交易的過程中，我們可以進一步最大化價值的一種方法是繼續有選擇地利用我們強大的資產負債表和現金流來進行創造性的附加收購。鑑於此類交易的可行性，我們相信我們的股票在近期水準上具有巨大的價值。

With that, Sean, let's take questions.

肖恩，我們來回答問題吧。

Thank you, Vimal. (Event Instructions)

謝謝你，維馬爾。（活動須知）

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。（操作員指示）

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

沃爾夫研究公司的奈傑爾·科伊。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the question. Maybe just a bit more details on the tariff impact, the way that flows through, obviously $500 million. I just want to confirm that's the -- I'm assuming that's second half, so the analyze will be closer to $1 billion. But maybe just talk about kind of the offset strategies there. Any pricing versus supply chain measures? Anything there would be helpful.

謝謝。大家早安。謝謝你的提問。也許只是關於關稅影響的更多細節，其流向，顯然是 5 億美元。我只是想確認一下——我假設這是下半年，所以分析結果將接近 10 億美元。但也許只是談論那裡的抵消策略。有任何定價與供應鏈措施嗎？那裡的任何東西都會有幫助。

Hey, Nigel. So first of all, I would say, if you see the chart in our deck, our local-for-local strategy is the foundation for counting the impact of the tariffs. We are largely localized in each regions, in United States, in Europe and so on. So our impact that way is informed by that local footprint.

嘿，奈傑爾。首先，我想說，如果你看到我們簡報中的圖表，你會發現，我們的在地化策略是計算關稅影響的基礎。我們主要在各個地區進行在地化，在美國、歐洲等等。因此，我們的影響取決於當地的足跡。

Now to your question, the countermeasures are going to be some pricing. We are going to do pricing, where we have the opportunity. At the same time, we have substantial direct material productivity options available this year. And with the combination of the two, we are going to offset the impact of this $500 million of tariff.

現在回答你的問題，對策將是一些定價。只要有機會，我們就會進行定價。同時，今年我們有大量的直接材料生產力選擇。透過兩者的結合，我們將抵消這 5 億美元關稅的影響。

I do believe that if we look at our business mix, it's largely -- a large part of it is aftermarket, which gives us the resilience to allow pricing execution there. At the same time, we operate in very rational markets. Most of our competition are public companies, which are projecting very similar strategies. So our confidence to execute -- mitigating this $500 million tariff is very high.

我確實相信，如果我們看一下我們的業務組合，它很大程度上是 - 其中很大一部分是售後市場，這使我們能夠在那裡執行定價。同時，我們在非常理性的市場中運作。我們的競爭對手大多是上市公司，它們所製定的策略非常相似。因此，我們對執行——降低這 5 億美元的關稅——信心非常高。

Nigel, this is Sean. Just a clarifying point on that, the $1 billion estimate as you put, keep in mind, tariffs in the first half are not zero. So I think as you annualize a full-year impact would be something a bit lower than what you suggested, but not too far off.

奈傑爾，這是肖恩。需要澄清的是，正如您所說的 10 億美元估計值，請記住，上半年的關稅不是零。因此，我認為，以年率計算，全年影響會比你建議的略低一些，但不會相差太遠。

Okay. Thanks. That's helpful. And then, Mike, you mentioned contingency in the guide related to macro. I'm curious, is that more of a top-down -- reading all the stuff in the press that we're all reading, is that more of a top-down contingency? Or are you starting to see unusual behavior or anything to kind of inform a weaker second half?

好的。謝謝。這很有幫助。然後，麥克，你在與宏觀相關的指南中提到了應急措施。我很好奇，這是否更像是一種自上而下的——閱讀我們都在閱讀的媒體上的所有內容，這是否更像是一種自上而下的應急措施？或者您開始看到不尋常的行為或任何預示下半年將會疲軟的跡象？

That's correct. That's more a top-down view. If we look at our first-quarter orders, very strong. April, strength in orders also continued. So we feel good about that. That said, just looking at our end markets, especially in Industrial Automation, our exposure to China there, we took a little bit more, I would say, prudent view in terms of what contingency we want to have, just to make sure we protect our total year.

沒錯。這更像是一種自上而下的視角。如果我們看一下第一季的訂單，就會發現非常強勁。4月份，訂單強勁勢頭持續。因此我們對此感到很高興。話雖如此，但只要看看我們的終端市場，特別是在工業自動化領域，以及我們在中國的業務，我們就會更加謹慎地考慮我們想要採取什麼樣的應急措施，以確保我們能夠保護全年的業務。

So yes, this is demand contingency for the second half. I don't have any data that would suggest that demand is falling out, but we'll continue to take a prudent stance on our guide. I want to make sure that the guide I give you, I have a high level of confidence that team can deliver on it.

是的，這是下半年的需求應急。我沒有任何數據表明需求正在下降，但我們將繼續對我們的指南採取謹慎的立場。我想確保我給你的指南能夠執行，我非常有信心團隊能夠做到。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Hi. Good morning. Can you guys just parse out what your volume assumption as -- I think coming into this year, you've talked about like 3 points of price? Maybe what's the volume assumption just in the context of this contingency? Just trying to kind of gauge what's kind of in the base case and what's just a hedge on that front.

你好。早安.你們能否分析一下你們的銷售假設——我認為到今年，你們已經談到了 3 個價格點？也許在這種意外情況下，體積假設是多少？只是想判斷一下基本情況是什麼樣的，以及這方面的對沖是什麼。

Sure. So just to clarify one more time, our total year framework is unchanged. Everything holds. If you look at now price volume going into the year, we're assuming about, I think, 2% price. That's what we communicated.

當然。因此，再次澄清一下，我們的全年框架保持不變。一切都成立。如果您看一下今年的現在價格量，我們假設價格約為 2%。這就是我們所交流的。

Excluding Bombardier.

不包括龐巴迪。

Excluding Bombardier. And the volume was minus 1% to 2% up. In this current guide, I'm assuming about 3% of price, and I'm assuming about minus 2% of volume to 1% of volume. So that's the conservatism is there.

不包括龐巴迪。而交易量則下跌了1%至2%。在目前的指南中，我假設價格約為 3%，並且我假設交易量約為 -2% 至 1%。這就是保守主義的存在。

So whether you include on Bombardier or not, either way, 1 more point of price, 1 less of volume would align to the same guide.

因此，無論是否包括龐巴迪，無論如何，價格增加 1 個點，數量減少 1 個都會符合相同的指南。

Yeah. That makes a ton of sense. And then just related to the tariffs, can you maybe talk about how much is roughly coming from China? And I know this may be kind of old news at this stage, but any other -- other than Mexico, any other kind of hotspots that we should be watching when it comes to other regions? Or is this mostly like a China thing, the $500 million?

是的。這很有道理。然後就關稅而言，您能否談談來自中國的關稅大概有多少？我知道這可能已經是舊聞了，但是除了墨西哥之外，還有哪些其他地區值得我們關注的熱門議題呢？還是這 5 億美元主要是中國的事？

So Steve, if you peel out our tariffs, I would say that going into China, exports from US into China, is a big part of impact. As we've always shared, we are a net exporter to China for many years. Aerospace and ESS business, UOP, we ship it from US. So clearly, a part of our tariff impact is China-related tariffs.

所以史蒂夫，如果你去掉我們的關稅，我會說，進入中國，從美國出口到中國，是影響很大的一部分。正如我們一直所說的，多年來我們一直是中國的淨出口國。航空航太和 ESS 業務、UOP，我們從美國出貨。顯然，我們的關稅影響的一部分是與中國相關的關稅。

On incoming side in the US, the impact is not big, because we are largely localized. But at the same time, there's an impact of some products coming from -- impacted by reciprocal tariffs because we do import parts from all over the world. And then there is a tail-off impact from China, both in -- specifically in Industrial Automation business.

就美國本土而言，影響並不大，因為我們基本上是本地化的。但同時，由於我們確實從世界各地進口零件，因此一些產品受到了互惠關稅的影響。然後，中國的影響逐漸減弱，特別是在工業自動化業務方面。

So that's the construct of it. And as we said before, we have factored all known tariff rates, which are known today, both coming into US and coming into China.

這就是它的構造。正如我們之前所說，我們已經考慮了目前已知的所有關稅稅率，包括進入美國的和進入中國的。

And Steve, I would just add, so for China, it's about 60% to 70% of our overall tariff exposure; rest of it is reciprocal. Mexico is 100% offset.

史蒂夫，我想補充一下，對於中國來說，這約占我們整體關稅風險的 60% 到 70%；其餘的都是相互的。墨西哥是100%抵消。

It's a 100% what? Sorry?

這是 100% 什麼？對不起？

Yeah, Mexico, it's not material to us.

是的，墨西哥對我們來說並不重要。

Immaterial. Yeah. Got it. 100% covered. Thanks a lot.

不重要的。是的。知道了。 100%覆蓋。多謝。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi. Good morning. Maybe just wanted to start with the Industrial Automation segment. So maybe help us understand, you have that big drop-off in the PSS top line in the first quarter. How are you thinking about that playing out for the balance of the year? Anything odd going on sort of share-wise?

你好。早安.也許只是想從工業自動化領域開始。所以也許可以幫助我們理解，第一季 PSS 營收大幅下降。您認為今年剩下的時間會如何發展？從股票方面來看，有什麼奇怪的事情發生嗎？

And on the margin front, I suppose those IA margins were down in the first quarter. I think they guided to be up slightly for the year. So maybe any help around the sort of cadence of that margin swinging from down to up as we go through the year?

從利潤率來看，我認為第一季 IA 利潤率有所下降。我認為他們預計今年的銷量會略有上漲。那麼，在我們度過這一年的過程中，對於利潤率從下降到上升的節奏，是否有任何幫助呢？

Yeah. So Julian, the PSS quarter one was roughly flattish. If you take out the royalty we get from Zebra, that was the last quarter we had the comps. So it was a flattish revenue.

是的。因此，朱利安，PSS 第一季大致持平。如果扣除我們從 Zebra 獲得的版稅，那就是我們擁有可比較數據的最後一個季度。因此收入比較平穩。

We did extremely well in North America. Europe, there was some pressure. I think it's too early for us to see any comps relative to competition. So I think as our competition will declare results, we'll observe if any specific puts and takes to share.

我們在北美的表現非常出色。歐洲存在一些壓力。我認為現在就看到與競爭對手相比的任何進步還為時過早。因此我認為，當我們的比賽宣布結果時，我們會觀察是否有任何具體的投入和收穫可以分享。

I would say in our guide, when we talked about contingency, there are two drivers of that contingency from the future demand, if I can use the word unknown. One is definitely China. Mike talked about uncertainty we see there. We have a business exposure. And the second part is the uncertainty around our businesses, which touches the retail markets. So PSS being one of them.

我想說，在我們的指南中，當我們談論意外事件時，有兩個來自未來需求的意外事件驅動因素，如果我可以使用未知這個詞的話。一個肯定是中國。麥克談到了我們在那裡看到的不確定性。我們有商業曝光。第二部分是我們業務的不確定性，影響到零售市場。PSS 就是其中之一。

I cannot tell you an absolute number because we are not trying to drill down a number of business by business. We have taken an overall broader view. So we do expect some pressure to a certain degree on PSS business in our assumption for the rest of the year.

我無法告訴你一個絕對的數字，因為我們不會嘗試逐一深入研究每個業務的數字。我們採取了更廣闊的整體視野。因此，我們確實預計今年剩餘時間內 PSS 業務將面臨一定程度的壓力。

On the margins, in first quarter, the large part of the margin contraction in IA was receivables write-off. We had some past receivable write-off. And based upon the progress of that, we wrote them off. The year as we progress, we don't have the similar event for rest of the year. Also, as the PPE business retires from our portfolio; that gives us a favorable tailwind. So fundamentally, I think all those factors play out, help us margin expansion for the rest of the year.

從利潤率來看，第一季度，IA 利潤率收縮很大一部分是應收帳款註銷。我們有一些過去的應收帳款註銷。根據這一進展，我們將其註銷。隨著我們今年的進步，今年剩餘時間我們不會再舉辦類似的活動。此外，隨著 PPE 業務從我們的投資組合中退出；這給我們帶來了有利的順風。因此從根本上來說，我認為所有這些因素都會發揮作用，幫助我們在今年剩餘時間內擴大利潤率。

I would add, PPE is obviously accretive to our segment margin and accretive to our organic --

我想補充的是，PPE 顯然會增加我們的分部利潤率，也會增加我們的有機--

Right. The PPE exit, yeah.

正確的。是的，PPE 出口。

That's helpful. Thank you. And then just my follow-up on the capital deployment. Last year, you had under $2 billion of buyback and close to $9 billion committed to M&A. This year, year to date, you're running at sort of $3 billion buyback and a couple of billion of M&A.

這很有幫助。謝謝。然後就是我對資本部署的後續關注。去年，你們的回購金額不到 20 億美元，併購金額接近 90 億美元。今年迄今為止，你們的回購金額約為 30 億美元，併購金額約為 20 億美元。

Any way you could frame for us sort of the buyback scope for the year? And I understand it depends on share price action and other uses of cash potentially. But just trying to gauge sort of how aggressive or large could that buyback be assuming the share price stays around current levels.

您能為我們規劃今年的回購範圍嗎？我理解這取決於股價走勢和現金的其他用途。但只是試圖衡量假設股價保持在當前水平，回購的力度或規模有多大。

Julian, I would just say at this stage that we will continue to be opportunistic. We obviously view our share price as very attractive at this stage for buybacks. But at the same time, we want to balance our capital deployment with M&A. And we --obviously, M&A machine has been now in play for us for a couple of years. So if deals -- there are specific deals that we've been working for a while and then attractive to us, we'll not pass them on.

朱利安，我目前只想說，我們將繼續抓住機會。我們顯然認為，在現階段，我們的股價對於回購來說非常有吸引力。但同時，我們希望平衡資本配置和併購。顯然，併購機器已經為我們服務了好幾年。因此，如果交易——有一些特定的交易我們已經進行了一段時間並且對我們很有吸引力，我們就不會放棄它們。

Yeah. So it will be a balanced approach, Julian. I mean we do expect opportunistic approach on share buyback to continue. But at the same time, if there's a time-bound M&A deal we have been working for a couple of years, we also don't want to miss the window at this point of time. So it will be a balanced approach.

是的。所以這將是一個平衡的方法，朱利安。我的意思是，我們確實預期股票回購的機會主義方式將會持續下去。但同時，如果有一項有時間限制的併購交易，我們已經花了幾年時間去爭取，我們也不想錯過這個時間窗口。因此這將是一個平衡的方法。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

戴維斯 (Scott Davis)，Melius Research。

Hey. Good morning, Vimal, Mike, and Sean. I hate to beat the dead horse, but still on tariffs. I just wanted to clarify kind of the cadence of -- you've got the cost side of tariffs and you have price; I imagine they don't match up kind of perfectly, unless you're doing surcharges, I suppose. But is the intent to match up price and mitigation efforts with tariffs by, say, the end of the year and have it be neutral by then? Or do you think you can do it sooner than that?

嘿。早安，維馬爾、麥克和肖恩。我不想重複老生常談，但還是要討論關稅問題。我只是想澄清一下節奏——你有關稅的成本方面，也有價格；我想它們並不完全匹配，除非你收取附加費，我想。但是，其意圖是否是在今年年底之前將價格和減排措施與關稅相匹配，並使其達到中性水平？或者您認為您可以更快完成？

I would say it will be much sooner than that. I mean we have -- we stood up a large team of people that can understand tariffs by HTS code and know it essentially to a dollar. And the teams have been quite active in terms of understanding what -- how to offset it and what are the mitigation actions.

我想說這將會更快。我的意思是，我們已經組建了一支龐大的團隊，他們可以透過 HTS 代碼來理解關稅，並且基本上知道其金額。這些團隊在了解如何抵消影響以及採取哪些緩解措施方面一直非常積極。

I would say it's not 100% price. Like Vimal said earlier, we have other options, and our direct material productivity has been really good. So we're trying to manage, I would say, demand with cost and demand destruction vis-a-vis price. So we feel very confident by the -- in the second half, we'll be, I would say, on par. And definitely by fourth quarter, we'll be in a stable operating mode, assuming things don't change materially for us here.

我想說這不是 100% 的價格。就像維馬爾之前說的，我們還有其他選擇，而且我們的直接材料生產率一直都很好。因此，我想說，我們正在嘗試管理需求與成本以及需求與價格的破壞。因此，我們非常有信心——我想說，在下半年，我們將會打平。到第四季度，我們肯定會進入穩定的營運模式，假設情況不會發生重大變化。

Yeah. That's good color. I'm not asking for specific numbers, but let's just say that it's $800 million ballpark of total tariff impacts. If there was a way to kind of rank it by segment or give us a little color by segment of where the bigger impacts are, just to be helpful. If you want to give numbers, that would be great, but I don't expect it.

是的。這顏色真好。我並不是要求具體的數字，但我們可以說，關稅總影響約為 8 億美元。如果有辦法按部分對其進行排序，或者按部分對影響較大的部分進行稍微說明，那就很有幫助了。如果你想給出數字，那就太好了，但我並不指望它。

Yeah. So Vimal mentioned earlier that our largest exposure on tariffs is in industrial automation just because of the supply chain there and also in aerospace, which Aero is an exporter to China. So those are two largest segments that have exposure.

是的。因此，維馬爾先前提到，我們受關稅影響最大的領域是工業自動化，因為那裡有供應鏈，還有航空航太業，而 Aero 是中國的出口商之一。因此，這是兩個最大的曝光部分。

Building Automation is largely protected. They're almost 100% local for local in their geographies. And then ESS, we don't see a lot of tariff exposure, maybe a little bit of a demand risk in China given they sell to China as well. But that's something that I think is -- all of that is contained in our guide, and I feel at this stage is de-risked assuming things stay the way they are.

樓宇自動化在很大程度上受到保護。他們幾乎 100% 都是本地人。然後，對於 ESS，我們沒有看到太多的關稅風險，考慮到他們也向中國銷售產品，也許在中國有一點需求風險。但我認為所有這些都包含在我們的指南中，我認為在現階段，如果一切保持現狀，風險就已經降低了。

Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

Good morning. So looking at aerospace, I think on Aero OE, I think we were sort of indicating that Aero OE was going to be better than I think what happened. And then on the aftermarket, I think it came in quite a bit stronger.

早安.因此，從航空航太的角度來看，我認為就 Aero OE 而言，我認為我們有點表明 Aero OE 會比我認為發生的事情更好。然後在售後市場，我認為它表現得相當強勁。

And I appreciate that your numbers seem to be in line with what other folks are reporting in the aerospace. But can you give us more color as to what's happening on the Aero OE? What's happening on the aftermarket? Is there a destock going on? Would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.

我很欣賞您的數字與航空航太領域其他人報告的數字一致。但是您能否向我們詳細介紹 Aero OE 的情況？售後市場發生了什麼事？是否有去庫存現象？將不勝感激。謝謝。

So Andrew, [as first is outset], I would say, the Aero volume, manufacturing volumes are growing. Why you don't see that showing up in the OE revenue is there are two drivers for that. The first is the mix of our products. We have -- when we ship specifically mechanical products, we have cost over-sell. So even though we are shipping more volume due to cost over-sell, our revenue growth actually goes towards opposite direction, goes negative, due to that. So when you have a higher mix of cost over-sell products in a given quarter, that has its impact.

所以安德魯，[首先是]我想說，航空產量、製造量正在成長。為什麼你沒有看到它在 OE 收入中出現，是因為有兩個驅動因素。首先是我們的產品組合。當我們運送特定的機械產品時，我們的成本會超額銷售。因此，儘管由於成本超賣，我們的出貨量增加了，但我們的收入成長實際上卻朝著相反的方向，出現負成長。因此，當某個季度的產品成本高於銷售成本時，就會產生影響。

And the second driver is the timing when we recognize -- we ship the revenue and customer recognizes revenue, that does also have a driver on our overall revenue recognition process. So the combination of the two really drives the OE growth numbers, what you see. As the year progresses, we do expect these numbers to improve. And overall, as we reconfirm the Aerospace guidance for the year, we'll continue to remain very bullish. I think these are the puts and takes in the business with more than $2 billion of backlog, and we remain very confident on delivering (technical difficulty) Aerospace.

第二個驅動因素是我們確認的時間—我們發送收入和客戶確認收入，這對我們的整體收入確認流程也有影響。所以，正如您所看到的，兩者的結合確實推動了 OE 的成長數字。隨著時間的推移，我們確實預計這些數字會有所改善。總體而言，隨著我們重新確認今年的航空航天指導，我們將繼續保持樂觀。我認為這些都是業務中的投入和產出，我們有超過 20 億美元的積壓訂單，但我們仍然對交付（技術難度）航空航太產品充滿信心。

Excellent. And just a follow-up, I guess there are a lot of headlines out there about all this traffic, all this shipping traffic out of China collapsing over the next four to six weeks. How should we think about it?

出色的。接下來我想問一下，我想現在有很多頭條新聞都在報告未來四到六週內中國出口的交通量、航運量將大幅下降。我們該如何思考這個問題？

I would imagine is that in parts of the IA, the supply chain is exposed to China? Just can you just tell us because you're so diversified; you've been in China for a long, long time. Like how is that going to play out? Because there's this doom-and-gloom scenario of how everything is going to come to a grinding halt in about four to six weeks.

我想，在印度的部分地區，供應鏈是否暴露於中國？由於您業務多元化，您能否告訴我們？你在中國已經待了很長很久了。那事情會如何發展呢？因為有一種令人沮喪的預測：大約四到六週後，一切都將陷入停滯。

It doesn't seem we see that in your guidance. I appreciate a different manufacturing footprint, longer cycle exposure. But as I said, I would greatly appreciate any color you can give us, how you guys are going to deal with sort of effectively trade embargo between US and China.

在您的指導中我們似乎沒有看到這一點。我欣賞不同的製造足跡和更長的週期曝光。但正如我所說的，我將非常感激你們能告訴我們你們將如何有效地處理中美之間的貿易禁運。

Thank you. So I would say we -- products coming into -- from China into US, the biggest impact that of -- is in Industrial Automation business. So to that degree, there will be a tariff pressure, which is already into our guide. It's already factored in.

謝謝。所以我想說，從中國進入美國的產品受到最大的影響是工業自動化業務。因此，從這個程度上來說，就會存在關稅壓力，這已經在我們的指導範圍內了。它已經被考慮進去了。

And on the opposite side, when we ship products from US into China, that's primarily a driver in Aerospace and in ESS business. So again, the impact of those tariffs are again factored into our guide. And then overall, we also have factored a demand destruction on either side of the fence due to the known facts, what we know today. And that's how we have guided at this point of time.

另一方面，當我們將產品從美國運往中國時，這主要推動了航空航太和 ESS 業務的發展。因此，這些關稅的影響再次被納入我們的指南中。總體而言，根據我們今天所知的已知事實，我們還將雙方的需求破壞都考慮在內。這就是我們目前的指導方針。

Any view for us -- I would say we are really looking at potential reduction in volume in our short cycle, in our Automation business or reduction of demand of catalysts for UOP. Those are the kind of assumptions we have made. But it should be seen if they really play out depending on how economic situation plays out.

對我們來說，任何觀點都是如此——我想說，我們真正關注的是短週期、自動化業務中產量的潛在減少，或是 UOP 催化劑需求的減少。這些就是我們所做的假設。但它們是否真正發揮作用還需取決於經濟情勢的發展。

But it's actually -- it's demand destruction. It's not ability to access the actual components and parts, right? Because I think the headlines indicate like this massive shortage of parts. But it seems for you, it's under control.

但實際上，這是需求破壞。這不是存取實際組件和部件的能力，對嗎？因為我認為標題表明存在如此嚴重的零件短缺。但對你來說，一切似乎都在掌控之中。

Yes. I don't see -- we don't foresee any shortage of parts. I think it's just the tariffs coming in and business demand destruction. I haven't seen or heard any lack of product availability for Honeywell so far.

是的。我沒有看到——我們預計不會出現任何零件短缺。我認為這只是關稅的徵收和商業需求的破壞。到目前為止，我還沒有看到或聽到霍尼韋爾產品短缺的情況。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

傑富瑞的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。請繼續您的問題。

Good morning, guys, and thank you. Maybe two more on Aerospace. First, if I could, just following up on Andrew's comments on aftermarket, 15% commercial aftermarket growth versus the guidance of mid- to high-single-digits, how is price a contributor? And how do you think about overall price in Aero versus the 3% for the total company? And any color regionally you could provide on aftermarket behavior?

大家早安，謝謝大家。也許還有兩個關於航空航天的。首先，如果可以的話，我只是跟進安德魯對售後市場的評論，商業售後市場增長 15%，而指導值為中高個位數，價格是如何發揮作用的？您如何看待 Aero 的整體價格與整個公司的 3% 價格關係？您能提供任何區域性的售後市場行為特徵嗎？

Sheila, I would say on the aftermarket, as Vimal mentioned, we still have over $2 billion of positive backlog. So whenever, I would say, our shops have capacity, we ship to whoever we can to satisfy that demand. So our, I would say, results for the next couple of quarters will still be, I would say, lumpy in terms of OE aftermarket mix.

希拉，我想說，在售後市場，正如維馬爾所提到的，我們仍然有超過 20 億美元的積壓訂單。因此我想說，只要我們的商店有容量，我們就會向任何可以發貨的人發貨，以滿足需求。因此，我想說，就 OE 售後市場組合而言，未來幾季的業績仍將不穩定。

Generally, our price is in line with what we guided at the beginning of the year. So there's no change there for aftermarket. And I know what the hours -- I would say, flight hours moderated a little bit here going to the second year. But we still see good hours 4%-plus hours. And as you know, we have exposure to ATR and business aviation, and those business aviation hours are more stable.

總體來說，我們的價格與年初指導的價格一致。因此售後市場沒有變化。我知道時間——我想說，第二年的飛行時間略有減少。但我們仍然看到 4% 以上的好工作時間。如您所知，我們涉足 ATR 和商務航空領域，這些商務航空飛行時間更加穩定。

And defense also has an aftermarket in there and defense is growing extremely strong, especially in the aftermarket. So I would say, overall, I know it's a little bit lumpy, but I would say our construct for the year is not changing vis-a-vis what's happening in the commercial aviation.

國防也有售後市場，而且國防成長非常強勁，尤其是在售後市場。所以我想說，總的來說，我知道這有點不穩定，但我想說，我們今年的構想並沒有隨著商業航空業的現狀而改變。

Okay. And maybe if commercial OE is still set to outperform aftermarket for the year and any color on commercial OE production rates you could provide?

好的。也許商用 OE 在今年的表現仍將優於售後市場，您能提供任何有關商用 OE 生產率的資訊嗎？

So commercial, we will were normalize in the second half. Right now, what I see is we have a little bit of mix within a mix issue. It's not been an issue, just a reality of how our OEMs take product between mechanical and electronics.

因此，商業化方面，我們將在下半年實現正常化。現在，我看到的是，我們在混合問題中遇到了一些混合問題。這不是什麼問題，只是我們的 OEM 如何在機械和電子之間運送產品的現實問題。

That said, like Vimal said, our supply chain output, our factory output for the quarter again was double digits. So we're really confident that this OE demand is continuing to stay with us for the remainder of the year going to next year. And within that $2 billion, OE is about $1 billion of [past] backlog, if not more.

也就是說，就像維馬爾所說的那樣，我們的供應鏈產出、本季的工廠產出再次達到了兩位數。因此，我們非常有信心，這種 OE 需求將在今年剩餘時間直到明年繼續保持。在這 20 億美元中，OE 大約佔過去積壓訂單的 10 億美元，甚至更多。

Amit Mehrotra, UBS.

瑞銀的阿米特·梅赫羅特拉 (Amit Mehrotra)。

Okay. Thanks. Congrats on the quarter. Just maybe a couple of quick ones. One, can you just update us on the timing of the spin, if you think it could happen sooner than what you noted earlier? And then if Aerospace margins, I get the case and there's some mix dilution, but is there an opportunity to kind of build on the 1Q margin as we progress through just given the higher revenue? Or do we think first quarter is kind of the right run rate for the rest of the year?

好的。謝謝。恭喜本季取得佳績。也許只是幾個簡單的問題。首先，如果您認為旋轉可能比您之前提到的更早發生，您能否向我們更新旋轉的時間？然後，如果航空航天利潤率，我明白這種情況，並且存在一些混合稀釋，但隨著我們收入的增加，是否有機會在第一季利潤率的基礎上再接再厲？或者我們認為第一季的運行率是今年剩餘時間的正確水平？

So timing of the spin, Amit, as we've indicated, for advanced materials, it's Q4 this year/Q1 of next year. I think we are far along the way. And as we'll come to the Q2 earnings call, we'll be able to provide you a specific date. I think we have some external elements, which are not entirely our control. Because that's only variable.

因此，阿米特，正如我們所指出的，對於先進材料而言，分拆的時間是今年第四季/明年第一季。我認為我們已經走了很遠了。當我們召開第二季財報電話會議時，我們將能夠為您提供具體的日期。我認為我們有一些外在因素，這些因素並不完全是我們所能控制的。因為那隻是變數。

If you ask me, our own execution, that is progressing extremely well. We are on schedule to execute all the tasks, but I cannot control anything which are not in Honeywell control. Specifically regulatory agency approvals, we cannot control the timing of that.

如果你問我，我們自己的執行情況進展得非常好。我們按計劃執行了所有任務，但我無法控制霍尼韋爾無法控制的任何事物。具體來說，對於監管機構的批准，我們無法控制其時間。

And aerospace spin date, I think it's early days. We started work just about two months back. But we are working to make it on schedule. And as the schedule progresses, we'll provide you more specific color what will be the specific date because right now, I fully appreciate the date is a bit wide, H2. And our goal is to refine the data and provide more specific outcome on that.

至於航空航天旋轉日期，我認為還為時過早。我們大約兩個月前就開始工作了。但我們正在努力按計劃完成。隨著計劃的進展，我們將為您提供更具體的日期，因為現在，我完全理解日期有點寬，H2。我們的目標是完善數據並提供更具體的結果。

On Aerospace margins, as we had provided the guide during start of the year, I think there are two specific drivers for the Aero margins for 2025. One is the mix of -- mix or mix within the mix of the products we are shipping. And the second is the case acquisition integration is going to be part of the P&L. There's the integration-related cost. The business also gets onboarded with a lower margin, which on a longer term is a good news because we can expand those margins. But the combination of those two contracts the Aero margin.

關於航空航天利潤率，正如我們在年初提供的指南一樣，我認為 2025 年航空航天利潤率有兩個特定的驅動因素。一是混合——混合或混合我們運送的產品。第二種情況是收購整合將成為損益表的一部分。還有與整合相關的成本。這項業務也以較低的利潤率開展，從長遠來看這是一個好消息，因為我們可以擴大這些利潤率。但這兩者的結合會縮小 Aero 的利潤率。

I would say that the Aero margins will remain on a similar pace as you've seen in Q1. We don't expect any substantial shift. But on an overall year basis, I think the guidance that we provided at the start of the year, that still holds good.

我想說的是，Aero 的利潤率將保持與您在第一季看到的類似的速度。我們並不期望出現任何實質的轉變。但從全年來看，我認為我們在年初提供的指導仍然有效。

Okay. That's helpful. And just as a follow-up, Building Automation, we've now had two straight quarters of high-single-digit growth. I know last quarter, you didn't necessarily want to extrapolate the goodness into this year, but now we've had another quarter of high-single-digit growth.

好的。這很有幫助。作為後續發展，樓宇自動化業務已連續兩季實現高個位數成長。我知道上個季度，你不一定想將這個好處延續到今年，但現在我們又經歷了一個高個位數成長的季度。

As we think about the guidance over -- I mean, comps get a little bit more difficult, so maybe that explains it. But is the guidance still reflective of kind of not extrapolating what we've been seeing over the last couple of quarters? Or do you think now it's kind of more realistic based on the trend?

當我們思考指導時——我的意思是，比較變得有點困難，所以也許這可以解釋這一點。但是，該指引是否仍反映出我們過去幾季所看到的情況？或者您認為根據趨勢來看現在這更現實嗎？

So as you saw in our guide, we raised the Building Automation guidance from low-single-digits to mid-single-digits to mid-single-digits. And then part of our demand contingency, we think, in the second half is related to us just taking a prudent stance on potential demand destruction in the second half.

因此，正如您在我們的指南中看到的，我們將樓宇自動化指引從低個位數提高到中個位數，再提高到中個位數。我們認為，下半年我們應對需求意外事件的部分原因在於，我們對下半年潛在的需求破壞採取了審慎的立場。

Building Automation projects, I would say, are continuing to be strong. We're just watching our short-cycle demand, product demand. And if Building Automation continues on this space, I think they have a chance to beat that. But we're just being prudent as far as second quarter, the rest of the second quarter, and the third quarter, given everything going on in the market.

我想說，樓宇自動化專案將持續保持強勁勢頭。我們只是關注短週期需求、產品需求。如果樓宇自動化繼續在這個領域發展，我認為他們有機會取得勝利。但考慮到市場目前的情況，我們對第二季、第二季剩餘時間和第三季持謹慎態度。

I think the overall strategy in Building Automation is really playing out. We're focused on pivoting our business to higher-growth verticals like data center, like hospitality. And those segments are growing regardless of the current conditions. So certainly, that's helping.

我認為樓宇自動化的整體策略確實正在發揮作用。我們專注於將業務轉向資料中心、酒店業等高成長垂直領域。無論當前情況如何，這些細分市場都在成長。所以這當然有幫助。

But also, at the same time, the business has the largest global footprint exposure. This business is like literally one-third in the US, one-third in Europe, one-third in Asia. So given the uncertainty in the global trade environment, we are, therefore, being cautious of the fact that it can hit on the headwinds on the economic side, economic uncertainty. So we have factored that.

但同時，該企業也擁有最大的全球影響力。這個業務其實三分之一在美國，三分之一在歐洲，三分之一在亞洲。因此，鑑於全球貿易環境的不確定性，我們對它可能為經濟方面帶來阻力和經濟不確定性保持謹慎。因此我們已經考慮到了這一點。

But if you ask me on the strategy side, the business is executing extremely well. And if things don't change, the business would continue to deliver the numbers you've seen over the last few quarters.

但如果你從策略方面問我，業務執行得非常好。如果情況沒有改變，業務將繼續呈現過去幾季所看到的數字。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬·里奇。

Hey. Good morning, guys. Maybe just following up on that last point and just relating it to the demand contingency that you've baked into the guide. So is it fair to say that you've got some good visibility on your long-cycle businesses, but it's really just on the short-cycle side, maybe in IA, maybe in BA, that you're most concerned and you're building in as contingency? Just any color that you can kind of parse out for what's baked into that demand contingency number?

嘿。大家早安。也許只是跟進最後一點，並將其與您在指南中納入的需求應急計劃聯繫起來。那麼，是否可以說您對長週期業務有很好的了解，但實際上您最關心的只是短週期業務，也許是 IA，也許是 BA，並且您正在將其作為應急措施？您是否可以透過任何顏色來分析出需求應急數字中所包含的內容？

Sure. So I would say we have a very good line of sight to the long cycle for the year. With respect to short cycle, if we look at Industrial Automation, that's the business has the most exposure to China. We're watching that, especially the products part of the business.

當然。因此我想說，我們對今年的長期週期有著非常好的預見。就短週期而言，如果我們看一下工業自動化，這是對中國影響最大的業務。我們正在關注這一點，尤其是業務的產品部分。

And then Building Automation, I mean, Building Automation has been doing extremely well for the last three quarters and continues. We have really no reason to worry at this stage. But like I said, we're just taking a prudent approach to the second half.

然後是樓宇自動化，我的意思是，樓宇自動化在過去三個季度表現得非常好，而且還在繼續。目前我們確實沒有理由擔心。但就像我說的，我們只是對下半年採取謹慎的態度。

So I'm feeling confident about the second half, but like I said at the beginning, we want to continue to make sure that we give a guide that we are -- have a high level of confidence we can deliver.

因此，我對下半年充滿信心，但就像我在開始時所說的那樣，我們希望繼續確保我們提供的指導是——我們有高度的信心我們可以實現這一目標。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just my quick follow-up, helpful to get some color on the separation. I'm just wondering, has there been any update on either the one-time costs or the stranded costs that you can give us any more information on either of those two options?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後只是我的快速跟進，有助於獲得一些分離的顏色。我只是想知道，一次性成本或擱淺成本是否有任何更新，您能否向我們提供有關這兩個選項的更多資訊？

So I think they are -- the one-time costs we had indicated between the band of $1.5 billion to $2 billion, we are on plan to stay in the same range. Given the large part of that one-time cost related to Aerospace and we are early innings of execution of that, therefore, it's hard to refine that number at this point of time.

所以我認為——我們之前指出的一次性成本在 15 億美元到 20 億美元之間，我們計劃保持在同一範圍內。鑑於一次性成本的很大一部分與航空航天有關，而且我們正處於執行的早期階段，因此，目前很難精確計算這個數字。

Stranded costs, we already started doing the work to look at stranded costs, starting with the advanced materials spin happening at the end of the year. Our confidence that stranded costs will be eliminated between 18 to 24 months' time is very high post-spin. So working on that front, and we will make sure that we execute on the same.

擱淺成本，我們已經開始著手研究擱淺成本，從年底發生的先進材料旋轉開始。我們非常有信心，分拆後 18 至 24 個月內，擱淺成本將會被消除。因此，我們將在這方面努力，並確保執行相同的目標。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

Thank you. Maybe for my first one, just on Q2 margins, guided flat quarter on quarter despite volumes going higher and the PPE divestiture, which should have some level of margin tailwinds. I guess, is this kind of saying that there's some margin pressure in Q2 on the tariffs, and then as we go into the back half, we'll get neutral per some of the earlier comments?

謝謝。也許對於我的第一個預測，僅就第二季度的利潤率而言，儘管銷量增加且 PPE 資產剝離，但利潤率仍環比持平，這應該會對利潤率產生一定程度的順風。我想，這是否意味著第二季的關稅會給利潤帶來一些壓力，而進入下半年，我們會根據之前的一些評論保持中立？

I don't see any, I would say, margin pressure right now incremental to everything that we saw in the first quarter. Second quarter, to me, looks benign in terms of any new information. It feels more like first quarter. And the [$2.60 to $2.70] that we guided, we feel it's appropriate given everything that's going on and our mix holds, our price is holding. So I don't see any structural issues --

我想說的是，目前我沒有看到任何利潤壓力比第一季看到的壓力更大。對我來說，就任何新資訊而言，第二季看起來都是良性的。感覺更像是第一季。我們認為，考慮到目前發生的一切，我們所指導的 [2.60 美元至 2.70 美元] 是合理的，而且我們的組合保持不變，我們的價格也保持不變。所以我認為不存在任何結構性問題--

One item I'll add to Mike's point is, I think quarter to quarter, if you really want to look at quarter-to-quarter differences, ESS margins were substantially up in Q1. That won't be the case in Q2. It's just a mix of shipments of catalyst -- catalyst shipments by product by product. Some are high margins; some are moderate margins.

我要補充 Mike 的觀點的是，我認為，如果你真的想看看季度與季度之間的差異，你會發現 ESS 利潤率在第一季大幅上升。但第二季的情況不會如此。這只是催化劑裝運量的混合——按產品分類的催化劑裝運量。有些利潤很高；有些是中等利潤。

So depending on Q2 had the different shipment levels or shipment mix compared to Q1, but that doesn't concern us at all. I think it's just a very normal course of this event. And overall, the guidance what we did for the ESS margin, that still holds very good.

因此，第二季度的出貨量水準或出貨量組合與第一季相比有所不同，但這與我們無關。我認為這只是這次事件的一個非常正常的進程。總體而言，我們對 ESS 利潤率的指導仍然非常好。

Yeah. Thank you. No. I appreciate that. And then maybe, Vimal, just maybe a bigger picture question on Industrial Automation portfolio. The business has leading positions in process, building and warehouse. There's not much of a discrete presence for sales into factory.

是的。謝謝。不。我很感激。然後也許，Vimal，也許只是一個關於工業自動化產品組合的更大的問題。該企業在工藝、建築和倉庫領域處於領先地位。工廠銷售的獨立性並不強。

You talked earlier about willingness to do M&A. So I guess my question is, do you think it's important for Honeywell Automation standalone entity to have discrete exposure in the portfolio? Thank you.

您之前談到了進行併購的意願。所以我想我的問題是，您是否認為霍尼韋爾自動化獨立實體在投資組合中擁有獨立曝險重要？謝謝。

Chris, as we're looking at the equity story of Honeywell Automation, the way we are looking at it is our exposure to the end markets. We want to build a portfolio which is exposed to high-growth end-verticals. So examples of that would be LNG. Example of that will be data center. Example of that will be semiconductor. So rather than looking at the business with a lens of process and hybrid and discrete, we are looking at the business with the lens of end markets and how much exposure we can have. And we'll share more with you when we are ready.

克里斯，當我們審視霍尼韋爾自動化的股權故事時，我們審視它的方式是了解我們對終端市場的曝險。我們希望建立一個面向高成長終端垂直產業的投資組合。例如液化天然氣 (LNG)。資料中心就是一個例子。例如半導體。因此，我們不是使用流程、混合和離散的視角來看待業務，而是使用終端市場和我們能獲得多少曝光的視角來看待業務。當我們準備好時，我們會與您分享更多資訊。

We have nothing for or against discrete automation. It's not that we like or don't like it. I think it's a factor of our exposure in that segment is low. That's a fact. But if it's any attractive opportunity, which is exposed to higher growth markets, as we have demonstrated in our acquisition profile, we'll absolutely execute that.

我們既不支持也不反對離散自動化。這並不是說我們喜歡或不喜歡它。我認為這是我們在該領域的曝光率較低的一個因素。這是事實。但如果這是一個有吸引力的機會，並且能夠接觸到高成長市場，就像我們在收購案例中所展示的那樣，我們絕對會執行它。

We are looking for an acquisition which are accretive to our growth rates. And if possible, also accretive to our margin rates. We don't want to build -- onboard something which then we are being defensive on our growth profile. So more to come there. We'll remain active in our M&A portfolio and continue to outlook for good opportunities.

我們正在尋找能夠提高我們成長率的收購。如果可能的話，還可以提高我們的利潤率。我們不想建立——加入某些東西，然後我們會對我們的成長概況採取防禦措施。未來還會有更多。我們將繼續積極參與併購組合，並繼續尋找良好的機會。

We'll take one more question.

我們再回答一個問題。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

花旗集團的安迪‧卡普洛維茲 (Andy Kaplowitz)。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for fitting me in. You mentioned that HPS is expected to lead Industrial Automation growth in '25, I think, in the presentation, but it didn't lead growth in Q1. I think warehouse automation did. So can you talk about the visibility you have in HPS going forward?

大家早安。謝謝你幫我安排。您在演示中提到，HPS 預計將在 25 年引領工業自動化成長，但它並沒有引領第一季的成長。我認為倉庫自動化確實做到了。那麼，您能談談您對 HPS 未來發展的展望嗎？

And then when you're having conversations with your customers, are you seeing any hints of CapEx delays or project deferrals and what end markets or regions are driving HPS's growth?

然後，當您與客戶交談時，您是否看到任何有關資本支出延遲或專案延期的跡象，以及哪些終端市場或地區正在推動 HPS 的成長？

Yes. HPS number, Andy, if you see on a reported basis, as we've said in our prepared comments, we saw strength in our aftermarket services. That certainly drove a lot. There are other businesses which are reported as part of HPS, thermal solutions and smart energy. They saw a minor pressure. So net-net, the whole segment was reported as flat. But if you look at the projects and services in HPS, they are performing on expected lines.

是的。HPS 號碼，安迪，如果你從報告的基礎上看，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們看到了售後服務的實力。這確實起到了很大的推動作用。據報道，還有其他業務屬於 HPS、熱解決方案和智慧能源的一部分。他們感受到了輕微的壓力。因此，總體而言，整個部分報告為持平。但如果你看看 HPS 中的項目和服務，它們的表現都符合預期。

To your question, are we seeing any pressure on projects? I think with the combination of the lens we have, both on the UOP side of the projects and HPS side, I certainly see some push out on projects which are sustainability related. I think customers' willingness to spend money on sustainability-related investment, energy companies are becoming more cautious. And certainly, we expect that factor to persist.

對於您的問題，我們是否看到項目有任何壓力？我認為，結合我們的視角，無論是在專案的 UOP 方面還是在 HPS 方面，我肯定會看到一些與永續性相關的專案的進展。我認為客戶願意在永續相關的投資上花錢，能源公司也變得更加謹慎。當然，我們預計這一因素將持續存在。

On other side, we see very strong trends on growth in gas processing and LNG. So kind of one offsets the other. And that's why we have a portfolio which is very diversified. We cover all these end markets. So net-net, we do believe that we will have a normal year for HPS in 2025

另一方面，我們看到天然氣加工和液化天然氣的成長趨勢非常強勁。所以，一個因素會抵銷另一個因素。這就是為什麼我們的投資組合非常多樣化。我們涵蓋了所有這些終端市場。因此，我們確實相信 2025 年 HPS 將會迎來一個正常的年份

Helpful. And just back to Aero and defense and space, you have difficult comps essentially all year in defense, but you delivered double-digit growth in Q1. Are you seeing more strength in international defense now? Or is it -- growth relatively balanced? And then it doesn't seem like you have or expect to see any impact from DOGE, but maybe you can elaborate on that?

很有幫助。回到航空、防禦和太空領域，你們在防禦方面基本上全年都面臨著困難的競爭，但你們在第一季實現了兩位數的成長。現在您是否看到國際防守實力增強了？或者說——成長相對平衡？然後看起來您似乎沒有或預計不會看到 DOGE 的任何影響，但也許您可以詳細說明？

Yeah. So I think first, maybe just answer to DOGE question, we don't see any impact. Majority of our programs are funded or have been funded, and those are multi-year programs. So we don't see an issue there.

是的。所以我首先認為，也許只回答 DOGE 問題，我們沒有看到任何影響。我們的大多數計畫都已獲得或正在獲得資助，而且都是多年期計畫。所以我們認為那裡不存在問題。

And like I said earlier, international defense is continuing to showing strength and a lot of demand and interest out there. So I don't think the team will have any issue in terms of managing the comps on the defense and space side this year.

正如我之前所說，國際防務繼續展現出實力並受到廣泛需求和關注。因此我認為今年球隊在防守和空間方面的管理方面不會遇到任何問題。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our time allowed for questions. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Kapur for any final comments.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，我們的提問時間到此結束。我將把發言權交還給卡普爾先生，請他發表最後的評論。

I want to express my sincere appreciation to our shareholders, our future shapers, and our customers for their unwavering support during this transformational time for Honeywell. Our future is bright, and we are excited to share more with you as we make progress in delivering with our commitments. Thank you very much for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.

我要向我們的股東、未來的塑造者和客戶表達誠摯的感謝，感謝他們在霍尼韋爾轉型期間給予的堅定支持。我們的未來是光明的，我們很高興在履行承諾方面取得進展，並與您分享更多資訊。非常感謝您的聆聽，祝您平安健康。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。