Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Harley Davidson 2025 fourth quarter Investor and Analyst conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to Shawn Collins. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning. This is Shawn Collins, the Director of Investor Relations at Harley-Davidson. You can access the slides supporting today's call on the Internet at the Harley-Davidson Investor Relations website. As you might expect, our comments will include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different.

Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted in today's earnings release and in our latest filings with the SEC. Joining me for this morning's call are Harley-Davidson, Chief Executive Officer, Arthur Starrs and Chief Financial and Commercial Officer, Jonathan Root.

With that, let me turn it over to Harley Davidson CEO, Arthur Starrs.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. for our Q4 and full year 2025 results. Before we get into it, I'd like to thank our Harley-Davidson employees, the HD dealer network and our riders that are listening in this morning. Thank you for all you do every day for the company. living and leading our brand in culture.

This marks my first full quarter as CEO. I've spent this time focused on understanding the core of our business, our people, our dealers, our riders and the realities in the marketplace. Through extensive time on the ground, I've confirmed many of the early observations I shared last quarter.

I'm confident there's a clear path to put Harley-Davidson back on the right trajectory, and I now have a sharper view of what it will take to reset the business and get to a more stable operating and financial future in 2016 and beyond.

This morning, we will provide more detail on the themes you heard from us on our last call as we work towards our expected strategic plan announcement in May this year.

Turning to our fourth quarter results, which we do not believe reflect the full potential of this company. 2025 was a challenging year. And while some of the pressures we are facing are macro-driven, others are firmly with our control and we are moving with urgency, focus and discipline to address them.

Wholesale shipments and associated margins were negatively impacted by intentional actions to address elevated dealer inventory, particularly touring inventory in North America through interventions on both the supply and demand sides.

During the quarter, we reduced wholesale shipments and implemented targeted promotions to accelerate the return to balanced retail inventory levels.

These actions are beginning to deliver results. Ryder response has been positive with North American retail sales growth in the quarter, accelerating into December, yielding early indications of improving dealer profitability.

We plan to continue these interventions with discipline as we work to optimize retail inventory, positioning the business in our dealer network for more sustainable performance going forward.

That said, we're encouraged by the early green shoots we're seeing. Our immediate priorities are both straightforward and deliberate. First, we believe we are stabilizing the business by restoring dealer confidence and aligning wholesale activity with retail demand.

Second, we are finalizing a strategy that we believe builds a durable platform that leans into our core and positions Harley-Davidson to return to sustainable growth. Early in my tenure, I committed to immediate priorities, improving dealer profitability, reigniting brand momentum and reducing costs.

These commitments have not changed. Today, I'll walk you through the immediate actions already underway to advance these priorities. These actions are in the following areas restoring our relationship with improving inventory management, sharpening our customer focus with the right portfolio, leaning further into the strengths of our branded community and enhancing financial flexibility.

Let me start with our dealer network. Harley-Davidson's dealer network is best-in-class distinguished by unmatched enthusiasm reach and strength. While the network remains a competitive advantage, dealer health today is uneven with some dealers facing challenges.

Dealer health is not optional. It is a critical foundation for our long-term growth and earnings power. We're resetting the relationship between the motor company and our dealers, that relationship must be built on mutual trust and respect shared objectives, shared accountability and shared success.

Healthy inventory levels and a healthy dealer network are non-negotiable. Over the last couple of months, I continue a series of roundtable discussions with our North American and European dealers, Most recently, I spent time in our European markets, including attending the Verona Bike Expo and a HOG Chapter morning meeting.

The insights from these engagements were consistent with my US visits. Extraordinary passion for the Harley-Davidson brand and strong commitment to the business.

Importantly, there is broad alignment around the changes required to drive sustainable growth going forward. These include healthier inventory levels, improved product mix, simpler and more effective rider engagement programs and greater flexibility to reflect local market conditions.

Drawing on my experience and franchise-based models, I know that sustained success depends on alignment, transparency and disciplined execution.

We are committed to reestablishing that foundation, beginning with immediate interventions that we expect to improve our dealers' retail performance and financial trajectory while accelerating trust across the network.

As we mentioned in Q3, we've begun to act with two quick and meaningful changes to support our dealers. First, we reviewed our fuel facility model guidelines adjusting the scope to better balance global brand identity with celebrating local communities.

Second, we made a commitment to reevaluate e-commerce. The company's e-commerce strategy has not historically delivered the intended results. It has created customer confusion and driven excessive discounting, placing unnecessary pressure on dealer economics. We've taken corrective action in North America by shifting to a model that is intended to drive incremental dealership traffic to support motorcycle sales. In the near term, our focus is clear.

Support our dealers, drive traffic to dealerships and execute against our core business, selling motorcycles.

While retail sales are still meaningfully below what we would consider a healthy run rate, the early progress is encouraging. We believe these actions are improving predictability and positioning the business for more consistent execution.

Turning to inventory.

On our Q3 earnings call, I was clear that inventory discipline and adapting to the realities of the current retail environment would be central to our focus. As we've dug deeper, it's become evident that the challenges are more significant than initially anticipated, and we're addressing them head on.

We are aggressively addressing inventory through targeted promotional support for touring models and disciplined quarterly planning by model region and dealership -- we believe this approach allows us to align inventory with sales trajectories, account for regional needs and proactively manage production and shipments accounting for seasonality.

The touring overhang remains pronounced and is being actively worked down through disciplined interventions designed to move the product efficiently without undermining long-term brand value. In North America, dealer inventory declined 16% relative to the year-end 2024 levels. Globally, dealer inventory was down 17% over the same period. meaningfully exceeding our 10% global reduction target.

This represents solid progress against our priorities, and I'm pleased with the team's execution and delivery. Overall, retail performance through the quarter was broadly in line with internal expectations.

North American retail was up year-over-year, while international retail, particularly in EMEA, was softer than we expected. We expect the actions we are taking to assist dealers in moving through inventory to restore dealer health to have a near-term impact on our financial results.

With that in mind, we view 2026 as a transition year as we reset business and finalize our new strategy. I see a path to return to long-term earnings and free cash flow power of the business, to the levels we know are possible. I can tell you we expect margins to be under pressure in the near term as production runs below wholesale, creating operating deleverage.

These are deliberate actions that we believe are necessary to support both dealer and company profitability and ultimately rebuild the long-term earnings power of the business. As I've discussed, we are in the early stages of a reset.

We've made decisive changes in the work underway across the organization is designed to rebuild momentum in the right way for the long term. Turning to the brand and our customer. Our leadership team is reorienting the organization around a clear priority. Our dealers are customer number one. When we enable our dealers to sell, customize and service the motorcycles, our riders want, everyone wins.

I continue to spend significant time with dealers and riders, including attending a hog chapter gathering in Milan as part of to Europe. The pride those members took in showing either Harley-Davidson or motorcycles was contagious.

It's clear our riders view their hardly as their individual motorcycle. Individual expression matters and customization is central to that experience. We have been two lacks on our parts and accessories business in recent years, and that will change. This is what our riders want. It's a critical business for our dealers.

It creates more opportunities for our world-class service technicians, and it is core to what Davidson has always stood for.

Going forward, our focus in this area will have two parts. Designing and building motorcycles that invite Harley-Davidson customization and ensuring our supply chain can support that demand quickly and reliably. Brand storytelling has always been essential to what makes Harley-Davidson.

At its core, our brand celebrates riders and the communities they create. In recent years, our work has been too serious and at times too dark.

That's not who our riders are. When they ride and gather, our riders are joyful, passionate and community creators. I saw this firsthand and 80th anniversary celebration for a dealership outside Paris, France just a few weeks ago.

Ryder shared stories of journeys they've taken together, including who proudly told me he had written all the way to our factory in Pennsylvania and was wearing his York PA Harley-Davidson gear while standing in Paris.

You'll soon see more optimistic, joyful brand work from us. advertising that celebrates our community and a uniquely Harley-Davidson way. Turning to product. To better align aspiration with accessibility, we are acting more breadth and flexibility in our portfolio.

That means being honest about where pricing and portfolio choices have limited our reach and making deliberate choices to widen the funnel in our core. My own interactions with dealers and riders over the past four months, in addition to customer research and recent retail trends validate what our riders want.

The look, sound and feel of a Harley-Davidson Motor settle, coupled with the ability to customize their Harley to make it their own.

The used market continues to reinforce the power of the brand and a strong desire for customers to purchase our products but at a price that is more aligned with today's economic realities. In fact, as we look at used auction activity, we feel enthused about recent demand trends and the positive impact they're having on used values, especially in Harley-Davidson core Softail models.

What's clear is that the portfolio actions taken over recent years have put the brand out of reach for some existing and potential riders to win, -- it's clear we need to sharpen our product focus, not only creating the highest-quality motorcycles that our riders want to ride, but doing so with a price in mind.

We need to ensure that these are products that our dealers are excited about and able to sell at a profit level that works for them and for us. On to the team in our org structure, execution requires the right team and structure.

We've made targeted leadership team and organizational changes to strengthen our capabilities across product, supply chain, marketing, technology and brand. We've added back new perspectives and welcomed back proven leaders with deep knowledge of Harley-Davidson's rider culture and community. Importantly, Harley-Davidson should be a great place to work as well as a great business.

Strong corporate culture isn't just good for employee morale is good for business. Rebuilding our culture and identity as a Milwaukee icon truly matters. My direct reports are all working from Milwaukee at our Juno Avenue headquarters and we will be formally reopening the office later this quarter.

By going back to the Bricks at our Juno Avenue headquarters, we are not only reigniting the cultural beat that has defined this company for over 120 years. But with these changes, we are improving decision-making speed, cross-functional collaboration and critically accountability.

I'm particularly pleased with how much more agile, nimble and speedy our leadership team is becoming working shoulder to shoulder in Milwaukee. I'm excited to get our teams back to Juno in the coming months. It's an inspiring place to work.

Lastly, I'll touch on the financial actions we are taking to reposition the business for success. We are conducting a rigorous end-to-end review of our cost base and operating expenses supported by third-party specialists.

Our current corporate overhead manufacturing capacity and overall operating expenses are built for materially higher volumes than today's demand, and we will be addressing this mismatch head on. We will share more details in May.

However, on top of previously announced targets, we anticipate at least $150 million of annual run rate savings that will impact 2027 and beyond.

In Q4 2025, we renegotiated and funded the term loan with LiveWire, reducing the principal to $75 million. LiveWire is now working diligently to attract its own sources of capital to continue to finance its operations and future plans.

We remain excited about LiveWire's newest motorcycle to Honcho, soon to be in market later this year, well aligned with the evolution of the EV motorcycle category toward smaller mini motors. Turning to HDFS. The recent transaction has delivered meaningful capital benefits.

We now expect to be able to run the HDFS business with less capital than has been tied to this business historically.

With these changes, we plan to take HDFS class-leading returns and delivering even higher ROE than we did historically. And as HDFS asset base rebuilds over the coming years, we expect to get back to earnings levels that run below historical levels.

Going forward, HDFS will operate with significantly lower capital commitments and with funding support from two trusted partners. HDFS continues to be a strategic asset for Harley-Davidson and a critical enabler for our dealer network, and we will talk more about HDFS strategically during our Q1 earnings call in May.

While a key priority remains returning excess capital to shareholders, we are currently evaluating the timing of our share buyback initiatives.

In the near term, we expect to be measured in our approach to share repurchase and while we finalize our strategic plan that we expect to announce in May. Before I hand it over to Jonathan, I want to reiterate that Harley-Davidson has an iconic brand, a loyal community and a dealer network unlike any other.

We are taking the hard necessary steps to stabilize the business and rebuild trust, which we believe will restore our long-term earnings power. The work is underway. -- execution is improving, and we are committed to delivering results.

Thank you. And now I'll hand it over to Jonathan.

Thank you, Artee, and good morning to all. I plan to start on Page 4 and 5 of the presentation, where I will briefly summarize the financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025. Subsequently, I will go into further detail on each business segment.

As a reminder, we closed what we call the HDFS transaction in Q4 at the end of October. The HDFS transaction is a strategic partnership with KKR & PIMCO that we expect will transform Harley-Davidson Financial Services into a capital-light derisked business model.

It also changes the financial profile of HDFS starting in Q4 of '25 and affords a high degree of optionality on how we fund and run that business.

As Artee cited earlier, the financial results in 2025 have come under pressure in the current challenging operating environment. We have moved immediately to make inventory management and discipline, a central focus to resetting the business.

This is evident in Q4 results and will continue to be essential priority as we move forward. Let me start with consolidated financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025. Consolidated revenue in the fourth quarter was down 28% driven by both HDMC revenue being down 10% and by HDFS revenue being done 59%.

Consolidated operating income in the fourth quarter came in at a loss of $361 million compared to an operating loss of $193 million in Q4 of 2024. This was driven by an operating loss of $260 million at HDMC and an operating loss of $82 million at HDFS.

The loss at HDFS was driven by costs associated with liability management activities related to the HDFS transaction, where we retired a significant portion of HDFS debt in Q4 of '25. The operating loss at LiveWire was $18 million, which was in line with our expectations at $8 million favourable to a year ago. In Q4, earnings per share was a loss of $2.44 and which compares to a loss of $0.93 in Q4 of 2024.

Turning full year 2025, consolidated financial results on Page 5. Consolidated revenue of $4.5 billion was 14% lower compared to last year, while consolidated operating income of $387 million compares to $417 million in full year 2024. For the full year 2025, earnings per share was $2.78 and compares to $3.44 in full year 2024.

Now turning to Page 6 and HDMC retail performance. As Artee already mentioned, in Q4, North American retail sales of new motorcycles were up with 1,847 motorcycles versus prior year. In Q4, international retail sales of new motorcycles were down 10% and with 9,440 motorcycles versus prior year, resulting in Q4, global retail sales of new motorcycles being down 1% at 25,287 motorcycles versus prior year.

The choppiness and volatility in global retail results is a continuation of what we have observed since mid-2024, with a difficult global backdrop in big-ticket discretionary sectors.

Pricing continues to be on the top of customers' minds given the current global setup that includes inflationary pressures and interest rates that continue to run above recent historical lows.

In North America, Q4 retail sales were up 5%, where US retail sales were up 6% and Canada retail sales were down 7%. For the full year 2025, North America retail sales written 13%. In the quarter, we experienced strength in our Grand American touring product, up 6%, driven by the promotional support in the marketplace.

We also saw strength in lower-priced sport motorcycle models, up 33% as the updated pricing and marketing resonated with our dealers and customers.

Within Grand American Touring, Trike was down 24% on very tight inventory availability in advance of the January 2026 new Trike launch. In EMEA, Q4 retail sales declined by 24%, driven by weakness across the region and different bike families.

EMEA continued to be adversely impacted by overall macroeconomic conditions. For the full year 2025, EMEA retail sales were down 11%. In the quarter, we experienced the most weakness in the touring and soft tail categories.

In Asia Pacific, Q4 retail sales declined by 1%, which was a significant improvement from the first half of 2025 and mostly attributed to a continued challenging environment in China, which was down meaningfully. The Q4 retail sales included positive results in Japan and the Asia emerging markets.

For the full year 2025, Asia Pacific retail sales were down 15% and the softness was most acute in China for the full year and Japan for the first half of 2025. In the quarter, we saw retail strength across all families, except for sport and lightweight motorcycles which still had a combined inventory down nearly 30%.

In Latin America, Q4 retail sales increased by 10%, where both Brazil, our largest Latin American market and Mexico were up while other Latin American countries were down modestly year-over-year. For the full year 2025, Latin American retail sales were up 2%, where both Brazil and Mexico were up.

For the full year 2025, global retail sales of new motorcycles were down 12% versus the prior year, where both North America and international markets turned in a similar performance. As Artee mentioned earlier, dealer inventory at the end of Q4 was down 17% versus the end of Q4 in the prior year. This compares to our stated goal at the beginning of 2025 of reducing dealer inventory by 10%.

North America dealer inventory ended down 16% and international dealer inventory ended down 20%. And with the regions coming in between down 19% to down 23%. This allows Harley-Davidson dealers to start the 2026 writing season much cleaner and with an appropriate as we look at the coming quarters. As discussed, we specifically focused on assisting dealers to reduce touring motorcycle inventory in North America as the market displayed its price and value sensitivity.

Let me briefly touch upon incentive and promotional spend within the current environment. In Q4, we selectively provided incentive and promotional support to Harley-Davidson dealers in the form of interest rate assistance low APR, customer cash and dealer cash credit.

As I covered last quarter and already mentioned earlier, dealers have more touring inventory in the channel than is desired. And while we have made progress in Q4, we still have more work to do.

Based upon discussions with our dealers in December of 2025, we determined to continue with consumer promotions into Q1 of 2026 in order to work through these units, and therefore, we have taken accrual in our Q4 2025 financials. Again, we expect this will help us get out of the gate stronger in 2026 to help drive retail performance.

Now turning to Page 7 and HDMC revenue performance. In Q4, HDMC revenue decreased by 10%, coming in at $379 million. were the biggest drivers of the decline included net pricing and incentive spend and decreased wholesale volumes.

For the full year 2025, revenue decreased by 13%, coming in at $3.6 billion, where the biggest driver of the decline was decreased wholesale volumes, where we shipped around 125,000 motorcycles, down 16% from the prior year, while net pricing was largely flat on the year.

Now turning to Page 8 and HDMC margin performance. In Q4, HDMC gross profit came in at a loss of $30 million, which compares to a loss of $3 million in the prior year. Q4 is typically our lowest gross margin quarter due to seasonality and model year changeover.

The year-over-year decrease was driven by the negative impacts from increased tariff costs and net pricing and incentive spend while partially offset by the positive impact from manufacturing costs, including leverage and favourable foreign exchange.

In Q4, operating expenses totalled $230 million, which was $19 million higher compared to prior year or 9% due to greater marketing spend with the introduction of the North America focused marketing development fund for our dealers. In Q4, HDMC had an operating loss of $260 million, which compares to an operating loss of $214 million in the prior year period.

Turning our attention to whole year 2025 margins. For the full year 2025, HDMC gross margin was 24.2%, which compares to 28% in the prior year. The decrease of 380 basis points was driven by the negative impacts from incremental tariffs in calendar year 2025, which we will cover on the next slide, negative operating leverage and lower volumes.

These impacts were partially offset by the positive performance from lower supply management and logistics costs, favourable mix, foreign exchange and net pricing was largely flat for the full year. Lastly, for the full year of 2025, operating expenses came in at $895 million, which were higher by $18 million, due primarily to the marketing development fund mentioned previously.

For the full year 2025, HDMC operating income was a loss of $29 million, which compares to operating income of $278 million for the full year 2024.

Turning to Slide 12. In 2025, the global tariff environment was more volatile and uncertain than we had expected at the beginning of the year. In Q4 of 2025, the cost of new or increased tariffs was $22 million. And for the full year of 2025, the cost of new or increased tariffs was $67 million. This included direct tariff exposure, Harley-Davidson importing and exporting product as well as indirect tariff exposure from suppliers.

This excluded pricing mitigation actions as well as operational costs relating to new or increased tariffs. Harley-Davidson is a business very cantered in and around the United States. Three of our four manufacturing centres are US based and 100% of our US core product is manufactured in the US we also have a US centric approach to sourcing with approximately 75% of component purchasing coming from the US.

We have a number of actions underway to mitigate the impact, and we expect this situation will remain fluid given the uncertainty that still exists.

As mentioned earlier, we closed the HDFS transaction in Q4 at the end of October. Just to restate a recap what we talked about in greater detail on the last earnings call the HDFS transaction includes three key components back book sales, sale of approximately $6 billion of existing HDFS loan receivables forward flow agreement, the sale of future HDFS loan originations and the sale of equity interest sale of a 9.8% common equity interest in HDFS to KKR & PIMCO.

In the fourth quarter, we retired a significant portion of HDFS debt, which resulted in some discrete costs. These discrete liability management costs were $73 million in Q4. We while the full year results were record high earnings for HDFS, Q4 of '25 resulted in an operating loss of $82 million for HDFS.

Let me provide some greater detail. At Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Q4 revenue came in at $106 million versus $257 million in the prior year.

The Q4 decrease was driven by lower retail and wholesale finance receivables at lower yields. The decline in retail receivables was due to the sale of the retail back book in the HDFS transaction. In Q4, interest income decreased from $224 million in Q4 of '24 to $46 million in Q4 of '25, while other income increased to $60 million due to new servicing fee streams.

On the expense side, Q4 interest expense increased to $130 million from $95 million a year ago. This line item included the $73 million of discrete liability management costs to retire HDFS indebtedness.

The provision for credit losses decreased to $7 million in Q4 from $72 million a year ago on lower retail finance receivables. Last, Operating expenses came in at $51 million in Q4 versus $43 million a year ago, primarily driven by increased hedging costs and employee costs.

In Q4, HDFS operating income came in at a loss of $82 million. For the full year 2025, HDFS revenue was $869 million, down 16% from prior year primarily due to lower retail receivables and lower wholesale receivables due to the transaction. For the full year 2025, interest income decreased from $891 million to $668 million.

For the full year 2025, other income increased from $148 million to $201 million in the prior year, primarily driven by a discrete gain on the sale of residual interest and securitizations a component of the HDFS transaction and by servicing fee income.

For the full year 2025, HDFS operating income was $490 million, record high earnings for HDFS and up from $248 million in full year 2024. The increase was primarily driven by favourable provision for credit loss expense due to the HDFS transaction impact and higher other income, partially offset by lower net interest income and higher operating expenses.

With the sale of $6 billion of retail finance receivables, the provision for credit loss line item became favourable rather than a cost, reflecting the release of CECL allowance associated with the sold loans.

Turning to HDFS loan origination activities, total retail loan originations in Q4 were up 2%, coming in at $487 million in Q4. Commercial receivables came in at $949 million at the end of the year relative to the prior year level of $1 billion, down 6%, reflecting overall lower dealer inventory levels in the channel.

Total gross financing receivables were $2 billion at the end of 2025, where retail receivables were $1 billion and commercial receivables were $949 million. This is a significant change relative to a year ago, resulting from the sale of around $6 billion of HDFS retail loan receivables as part of the HDFS transaction.

For comparison purposes, gross financing receivables were $7.7 billion at the end of 2024, which includes both retail loans and commercial financing. Total HDFS loan assets fell 74% year-over-year as we shift to a capital-light business model that carried less risk.

Now turning to Slide 13 for the LiveWire segment. On a full year basis, electric motorcycle units increased by 7% and static units increased by 15%, while consolidated revenue decreased by 3% and due to increased incentives associated with the Twist & Go promotion. LiveWire maintained its position as number one retailer in the US 50-plus horsepower on-road EV segment and had its second consecutive record-setting quarter for retail sales.

Consolidated operating loss decreased by 32%, driving a 45% decrease in net cash used during the year excluding the $75 million of proceeds from the term loan with HD. During Q4 of 2025, LiveWire consolidated revenue increased by 9% and driven by a 61% increase in electric motorcycle units and a 7% increase in static units. Consolidated operating loss decreased by 30%.

For 2026, LiveWire's focus is on the launch of its S4 Honcho products with production targeted to begin in the spring of 2026, continued network expansion, cost savings and improvement and product innovation and development focused on profitable products.

Now turning to Slide 14. Wrapping up with consolidated Harley-Davidson Inc. financial results, we delivered $569 million of operating cash flow in full year 2025, which was down from $1.6 billion in full year 2020.

The decrease in operating cash flow was driven by lower motorcycle shipment volumes and unfavourable manufacturing and tariff costs as well as originations of retail finance receivables classified as held for sale, which are classified as operating cash outflows.

There were no originations of retail finance receivables held for sale in 2024 for the net outflows related to this activity contributed to the decrease in operating cash flows. Total cash and cash equivalents ended at $3.1 billion, which was $1.5 billion higher than a year ago.

The HDFS transaction facilitated a dividend of $1 billion from HDFS to HDI in Q4, which together with a further dividend expected to be paid in Q1 results in a total dividend that will be consistent with our original expectations. In addition, HDFS debt will be further reduced by the maturity of a $700 million medium-term note in Q2.

As part of our capital strategy, in Q4, we entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement with Goldman Sachs to repurchase $200 million of shares of the company's common stock. We entered into the $200 million ASR and $160 million was delivered to 12/31 and with the remainder in early 2026.

For the full year 2025, we repurchased a total value of $347 million or 13.1 million shares in total which represents around 11% of December 31, 2024, shares outstanding. This amount includes the aforementioned ASR agreement.

Now turning to Slide 16. While 2025 was a more volatile and challenging year than we had anticipated, we looked to 2026 where we start the year at more appropriate dealer inventory levels and look to reset the business. toward a more stable operating and financial future.

As we look to our financial outlook for 2026, we remain pleased with our leading market share position in the US new model year two motorcycle launch, including the all-new redesigned trige models as well as the long-haul touring and the introduction of our affordable lineup of motorcycles with a focus on critical price point motorcycles to help stoke demand.

At HDFC, we expect retail units of 130,000 to 135,000. We expect wholesale units of $130,000 to 135,000. As you can see, we believe that global dealer inventory levels are at appropriate total levels with some need to balance by model and family.

Therefore, we expect retail and wholesale have a largely one-to-one relationship in 2026. At the same time, we expect production units at HDFC to be lower than wholesale units shipped in 2026 as we work to prudently manage overall company inventory levels.

For 2026, we expect this will have a deleverage impact, which will pressure operating leverage when it comes to operating margins. In addition, we expect to face a greater overall cost for incremental tariffs in 2026, which are likely to be applied more uniformly over the entire calendar year, whereas 2025 experienced partial applications during the year and was backloaded.

As a reminder, in full year 2025, we incurred a cost of $67 million in new or increased tariffs. And in 2026, we forecast the cost of between $75 million to $105 million of new or increased tariffs based on current tariff levels and versus the 2024 base line. At HDMC, we expect operating income of positive $10 million to a loss of $40 million.

At HDFS, we expect operating income of $45 million to $60 million. The forecast is based on the new business model at HDFS, given the HDFS transaction, where Harley-Davidson Financial Services now employs a capital-light derisked business model and has significantly changed financial earnings profile relative to before the transaction was done, particularly in the near term.

Additionally, both retail and wholesale asset levels are lower than we previously believed and nonservicing fee income is also being viewed more cautiously. At LiveWire, LiveWire is forecasting an operating loss in the range of $70 million to $80 million. These guidance elements exclude impacts from our updated strategic plan, which we are looking forward to announcing in May along with Q1 earnings.

And with that, we'll open it up to Q&A.

Craig Kennison, Baird.

Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking my question on HDFS. Just based on the message that came out of the HDFS transaction last year, I think the expectation was that HDFS operating income could be maybe half of what it used to be. So at least $100 million, granted, that was just an expectation that came out of the presentation materials, but you're looking to be about half of that. Maybe help us unpack what's going on with the math behind HDFS? And what the long-term profitability of that business should look like?

Thank you for your question, Jay. So obviously, from an HDFS standpoint, as we take a look at what we're guiding to, as you say, for 2026, we have a guide for the HDFS business. to come in between $45 million and $60 million as we flow forward and look to kind of a standard run rate for this business, which will probably take a 2.5, 3 years to get to that point.

We would view kind of at the midpoint that HDFS would be on a standardized basis, making approximately triple the midpoint. So that's where we think the business goes long term as we think about some of the short-term related impacts and where is there a difference versus monthly invest we obviously have a cautious outlook relative to what we're looking at from an overall volume standpoint.

And so we're being careful and considered there. And then in addition, with what you saw with our Q4 year-end results, with dealer inventory down significantly and more than what we envisioned. Obviously, we have lower wholesale assets too, so that pressures earning the power of base. So hopefully, that explains what you're looking for and provide the perspective.

Don't you need more retail and more wholesale stock units in order to triple that income? Or are there other adjustments?

Yes. No, it's time for those time for the retail assets to kind of flow their way in. So obviously, we need multiple years of building -- kind of rebuilding the balance sheet in order to drive what we need from an income statement standpoint. And that is. And then as we talk wholesale levels are lower than what we envisioned with already focused on how we really maintain tight and disciplined inventory with our dealers.

That makes sense. Thank you.

Noah Zatzkin, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I guess just on kind of the wholesale guidance, you kind of talked about a one-for-one dynamic. Obviously, the implication is shipment growth in 2016. So I guess, in terms of cadence, how should we think about that building through the year? And then on inventory levels, like I guess is the implication that you're kind of more comfortable now with where you're sitting at the end of the year?

Sure. So why don't I start a little bit with Cadence and then maybe we'll have Artee talk through total inventory levels and provide a little bit of commentary around that. So from a cadence standpoint, as we think about wholesale shipments and the way that will look on a year-over-year basis, again, we're being what I would define as careful and considered in what we're sending into the dealer network.

So Q1 of 2026 will probably be down from a wholesale shipment perspective, down a little bit versus where we were in Q1 of prior year. We think that we'll end up kind of popping up a little bit higher in early Q2.

So making sure that we have dealers who are well positioned for when the season is starting. So we're not asking them to carry that inventory in the January, February time frame, but we do want them to be appropriately positioned from an inventory standpoint.

So Q2 wholesale shipments will be a little bit higher than prior year. Then as we take a look at how we walk into Q3, again, probably just a little bit lower as we work through some timing elements within the portfolio and some things that occur from that standpoint.

And then as we end up ending Q4, obviously, we were pretty measured in what we shipped into the dealer network in Q4 of 25. So there's room for a pretty pretty material change in what we're sending in, in Q4 of 2026. So certainly, as you kind of take all of those different factors, a little bit more backward internship cadence in the second half of the year versus the first half? And even with that sort of a little bit more towards Q4. And then Artee, you can.

Yes. No, just broadly on inventory, the focus is on supporting our dealers and selling through the touring inventory. We remain pleased with the progress there. There's still support there and will continue to be. And we're also pleased with the 26 model year launch, a lot of enthusiasm in the market.

So we'll be monitoring that closely. But in my script and in these comments, I just want to be abundantly clear we're hyper focused on healthy inventory levels and the focus is on the model year 25 touring right now.

Robin Farley, UBS.

Great. Thank you. I wanted to ask a little bit your expectations for retail to be flat globally. Just wondering what that counts on for US retail. And then also just kind of what's behind the expectation of flat just how you're thinking that -- how you're coming to that expectation?

And then if I could just also by the way, just squeeze in a quick clarifying point on LiveWire. I think previously, the expectation had been that you were limiting the kind of losses you would underwrite. And is it fair to say based on the guidance you're giving for '26 that you are willing to continue to invest or see live, why or maybe lose more than kind of the commentary last year?

Robin, it's Artee. Thank you for the question. I'll take the LiveWire one and then Jonathan will walk through the retail forecast. On LiveWire, we extended the $75 million loan, which is originally $100 million. So we worked through that with them.

And they're actioning other sources of capital at this point in time. So in terms of funding the operating losses or so on. We've extended our commitment on the loan, and that's it. So Jonathan, you can walk through the retail piece.

Okay. Sounds good. Thanks. So on the -- I think you asked about US specifically from a retail standpoint. So as we flow through and take a look at it, we're obviously really, really excited about what's happening with the introduction of the new limited -- so as we take a look at where we are from an overall retail sales perspective, we do envision that we have a little bit of upside in terms of 26% versus 25% in from a steering standpoint for a couple of reasons. You heard Art talk about our focus on 25 model year sell-down and how that was focused around doing.

So at retail, that actually really helps us in terms of moving through the 25 touring bikes and what we have back on top of that is the new limited and the new limited that hit, and we're really excited about those and the initial reception to that.

So a lot of enthusiasm from our dealer network around sold orders and what they're seeing on that front. As we move along on the retail side, we also have the introduction of the new rice Again, as we look at dealer enthusiasm and customer feedback around what those look like, we're really proud of what our engineering team has done from a suspension perspective.

So if he thinks through handling in the way of that motorcycle or for some real positives, I think, in terms of how customers will feel and enjoy that motorcycle. So a little bit of enthusiasm in terms of where we sit from a price perspective.

And then just a couple more pieces that I'll touch on quickly. As we take a look, we are being careful and considered in what CBO retail and CEO wholesale shipment ship in looks like.

We do want to make sure that those banks really are put up on a detail and we're being possible about what we're shipping in, which obviously will challenge retail a little bit within that particular family. And then overall, we have the full year of soft sales.

So really, really excited that we have dealers who are well positioned. We've kind of moved some price points in a way that are pretty customer friendly. And so overall, feeling good about where that is. So those are many of the puts and takes for 2026.

Great, thank you.

Tristan Thomas, BMO Capital Markets.

Can you give us $150 million of annual run rate savings in 2020 and beyond as you guys called out, is that spread among all three segments? And then also, is there any way to anything porous kind of the cadence of that next year, specifically would be very helpful as we build out the models?

Tristan, I'll take that. The $150 million would not incorporate anything at LiveWire that would just be the motor company and in HDFS. And in terms of cadence, we would expect to realize some of those savings beginning in the back half of this year. We've not incorporated any restructuring charge in the guidance. So that would complement that but we've been clear in saying we expect those savings to be realized on an annual basis starting in 2027.

James Hardiman, Citi.

Hey, good morning. So any help you could give us sort of bridging what I think is about 4% to 8% wholesale growth, if I sort of use the wholesale guide to where you ultimately land in terms of operating income still being a modest loss on the CMC side. Obviously, there are some tariffs in there. It sounds like there's some deleverage as we think about sort of production versus wholesale?

And I guess I'm also curious on the ASP side or the mix side. I think what I'm hearing is that even though inventories for the year will be flat touring will be down. So you're going to be under shipping touring. Just curious what impact that might have on ASP.

Okay. Yes. Great question. Thank you. I hope you well. As we take a look at where we are, we certainly have a number of factors that come into play as we look at motor company operating income in '26 versus '25. So you're right. If you kind of look kind of where we land from a midpoint perspective, really, really close to flat. We have a number of factors that come into play. So we have a full year of tariff exposure.

So that adds about a $25 million headwind year-over-year. Again, going back to the tariff update page that we included within the deck, you can see some of the details there.

Obviously, as we complete our final year of getting discipline back into the operating environment in terms of balancing out wholesale and production that poses a little bit of a deleverage challenge. And then we certainly have some associated supply chain impacts that we're contemplating.

As you talked about, we do have a broadly one-to-one relationship between retail and wholesale which does happen an offsetting positive.

And then as we look, there are some non-motorcycle implications around P&A and AML. So all in, as we look at where we are, if you do a midpoint comparison just effectively sitting right on top and obviously, an improved setup for out-year performance as we work through our final issues in '26.

Got it.

Brandon Rolle, Loop Capital.

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I just had a question around the used versus new pricing spread. How do you feel about where that spread is right now?

And obviously, with all this promotional activity, do you see that spread tightening as you kind of pull away the promotional activity? Or is this something that the spread is going to keep expanding as maybe prices go higher, and it seems like people are digging in lower and lower into the used values for a deal? Just any comments there on the spread.

Okay. Thanks, Brandon. I'll start with a couple of numbers, and then maybe Artee can provide some perspective in addition. So I think from a couple of different factors that you speak about. So as we think about where we're sitting today from a Q1 standpoint, we were forthcoming in terms of the charge that we took in Q4 of '25 in order to make sure that we were position to clear through touring in the way that Artee has talked about.

So relative to the factor on the new side, as we think about affordability, monthly payments and investor consumers, we recognize that we're doing -- we're putting some programs in market at the moment that are helping drive a reduction in the gap between new and used motorcycles. So we have some stimulus that we think is helping drive a really nice value equation for our customers.

I think what's really exciting is that in addition to that, as we take a look at what we're seeing on used values we have seen sort of stabilization to some nice improvement in used values and what we're seeing come through at both auction and retail on the used side. So I think that that dynamic is also helping us from an overall consumer standpoint. So a couple of nice factors to bring that together.

Yes. And I think one of the insights we're seeing is that some of the parts of our portfolio that we've walked away from in recent years, the used values have jumped. So it's informing some of our product development work, so it's encouraging to see core equities that we've been known for a long time, really responding quite well in the used market, and it's informing some of the innovation that you're going to be seeing from us.

Great, thank you.

Jaime M. Katz, Morningstar.

Sorry. I'm hoping that you guys can talk about maybe what you envision as the potential for the motor company operating margin beyond '26. Like do we go back to a high single-digit rate. Do you guys see more opportunity to expand margin if maybe we can get some volume improvement to take hold and just sort of what you see as the potential for that segment over time?

Yes, Jamie, that's a great question, and it's something we're going to clearly call out in our May investor meeting and strategy discussion and earnings. So if you tune in that, I'll give you more detail. Obviously, we're -- we don't think the current results reflect the full potential of the company. So a lot of upside and Look forward to updating you in May.

Okay. And then do you have a target for leverage metrics at the end of 2026, given that you're still paying down some of it?

Yes. I think everything from an overall capital allocation perspective, as Artee talked about in our Q1 earnings call that we do in May, we'll make sure that we walk through strategy. overall capital allocation, our approach to the way that we're running the business on leverage for HDMC as well as HDFS and then what we look at on a go-forward basis, we will be sure that we cover all of that.

Sorry. The one thing I'd just remind is the EUR700 million note that we're going to be paying off. That's the one thing that we've called out.

Thank you.

There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.