Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q4 2025 營收年減 28%,HDMC 營收年減 10%,HDFS 營收年減 59%;Q4 EPS 虧損 $2.44,去年同期虧損 $0.93;全年營收 $4.5B,年減 14%,全年 EPS $2.78,去年 $3.44
    • 2026 年指引:HDMC 批發與零售單位預估 130,000-135,000 台,HDMC 營業利益 $10M 至虧損 $40M,HDFS 營業利益 $45M-$60M,LiveWire 預估虧損 $70M-$80M
    • 市場反應:無盤後股價或同業對比資訊
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 積極調整經銷商庫存,北美庫存年減 16%,全球年減 17%,超越原定 10% 目標
      • 北美 Q4 新車零售銷售年增 5%,美國年增 6%,主力 Grand American Touring 產品受促銷帶動年增 6%,低價運動車款年增 33%
      • 品牌重塑、強化經銷商關係、聚焦客製化與配件業務,提升經銷商獲利與品牌活力
      • HDFS 轉型資本輕資產模式,長期預期 ROE 提升,資本效率改善
    • 風險:
      • 全球經濟環境疲弱,EMEA(歐洲中東非洲)Q4 零售年減 24%,全年年減 11%,亞太全年年減 15%
      • 2026 年預期關稅成本進一步上升,全年預估 $75M-$105M(2025 年為 $67M)
      • 短期內產能利用率低於批發出貨,導致營運槓桿不利,壓抑毛利率與獲利
      • HDFS 轉型初期獲利顯著下滑,需數年重建資產規模
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 北美 Q4 新車零售銷售:年增 5%,美國年增 6%,加拿大年減 7%
    • EMEA Q4 新車零售銷售:年減 24%,全年年減 11%
    • 亞太 Q4 新車零售銷售:年減 1%,全年年減 15%
    • 拉美 Q4 新車零售銷售:年增 10%,全年年增 2%
    • 全球 Q4 新車零售銷售:年減 1%,全年年減 12%
    • HDMC Q4 營收:年減 10%,全年年減 13%
    • HDMC Q4 毛利:虧損 $30M(去年同期虧損 $3M),全年毛利率 24.2%(去年 28%)
    • HDMC Q4 營業虧損 $260M,全年營業虧損 $29M(去年營業利益 $278M)
    • HDFS Q4 營收 $106M(去年 $257M),Q4 營業虧損 $82M,全年營業利益 $490M(去年 $248M)
    • LiveWire Q4 營收年增 9%,電動機車銷量年增 61%,全年營運虧損年減 32%
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年 HDMC 批發與零售單位預估 130,000-135,000 台
    • 2026 年 HDMC 營業利益預估 $10M 至虧損 $40M,HDFS 營業利益 $45M-$60M,LiveWire 虧損 $70M-$80M
    • 2026 年關稅成本預估 $75M-$105M(2025 年為 $67M)
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: HDFS 轉型後獲利大幅下滑,長期獲利能力如何?
      A: 短期內 HDFS 營業利益僅 $45M-$60M,需 2.5-3 年重建資產規模,長期預期獲利可達目前的三倍。短期壓力來自經銷商庫存與資產規模下降。
    • Q: 2026 年批發出貨與庫存調整節奏如何?目前庫存水位是否健康?
      A: Q1 批發出貨將低於去年,Q2 會提升以配合旺季,Q3 稍降,Q4 則有較大成長空間。整體庫存水位健康,重點仍在消化 touring 車型庫存。
    • Q: 2026 年全球零售預期持平,對美國市場看法?LiveWire 虧損承擔意願?
      A: 美國市場對新車型反應熱烈,經銷商訂單與客戶回饋正面。LiveWire 僅延長 $75M 貸款,未承諾進一步承擔虧損,後續資金由 LiveWire 自行籌措。
    • Q: $150M 年化成本節省分布於哪些事業?2026 年會有多少落地?
      A: $150M 節省僅涵蓋 HDMC 與 HDFS,不含 LiveWire。2026 年下半年開始部分落地,2027 年起全面反映。
    • Q: 2026 年批發成長 4-8%,但營業利益仍可能虧損,主因為何?ASP 與產品組合影響?
      A: 2026 年全年關稅成本增加 $25M,產能利用率低於批發出貨產生營運槓桿不利,部分供應鏈成本上升。產品組合調整,touring 車型出貨減少,對 ASP 有壓力。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Harley Davidson 2025 fourth quarter Investor and Analyst conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to Shawn Collins. Thank you. Please go ahead.

    感謝您的耐心等待,歡迎參加哈雷戴維森2025年第四季投資者和分析師電話會議。(操作員指示)現在我將把會議交給肖恩·柯林斯。謝謝。請繼續。

  • Shawn Collins - Director, Investor Relations

    Shawn Collins - Director, Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Good morning. This is Shawn Collins, the Director of Investor Relations at Harley-Davidson. You can access the slides supporting today's call on the Internet at the Harley-Davidson Investor Relations website. As you might expect, our comments will include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different.

    謝謝。早安.這是哈雷戴維森投資者關係總監肖恩柯林斯。您可以透過哈雷戴維森投資者關係網站在線訪問今天電話會議的相關幻燈片。正如您所預料的,我們的評論將包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述存在風險,可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。

  • Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted in today's earnings release and in our latest filings with the SEC. Joining me for this morning's call are Harley-Davidson, Chief Executive Officer, Arthur Starrs and Chief Financial and Commercial Officer, Jonathan Root.

    這些風險包括我們在今天的收益報告中以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新文件中提到的事項。今天早上和我一起參加電話會議的有哈雷戴維森執行長亞瑟·斯塔爾斯和首席財務兼商務官喬納森·魯特。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Harley Davidson CEO, Arthur Starrs.

    接下來,我將把發言權交給哈雷戴維森執行長亞瑟·史塔爾斯。

  • Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. for our Q4 and full year 2025 results. Before we get into it, I'd like to thank our Harley-Davidson employees, the HD dealer network and our riders that are listening in this morning. Thank you for all you do every day for the company. living and leading our brand in culture.

    各位早安,感謝各位今天參加我們的2025年第四季及全年業績發布會。在正式開始之前,我要感謝我們的哈雷戴維森員工、哈雷戴維森經銷商網絡以及今天早上收聽節目的各位騎手。感謝您每天為公司所做的一切,您是品牌文化的實踐者和領導者。

  • This marks my first full quarter as CEO. I've spent this time focused on understanding the core of our business, our people, our dealers, our riders and the realities in the marketplace. Through extensive time on the ground, I've confirmed many of the early observations I shared last quarter.

    這是我擔任執行長的第一個完整季度。這段時間我一直專注於了解我們業務的核心、我們的員工、我們的經銷商、我們的騎士以及市場的實際情況。透過長時間的實地考察,我證實了上個季度我分享的許多早期觀察。

  • I'm confident there's a clear path to put Harley-Davidson back on the right trajectory, and I now have a sharper view of what it will take to reset the business and get to a more stable operating and financial future in 2016 and beyond.

    我相信,哈雷戴維森完全有一條清晰的道路可以重回正軌,而且我現在更清楚地認識到,要重塑公司業務,並在 2016 年及以後實現更穩定的運營和財務前景,需要做些什麼。

  • This morning, we will provide more detail on the themes you heard from us on our last call as we work towards our expected strategic plan announcement in May this year.

    今天上午,我們將就上次電話會議上大家聽到的主題提供更多細節,以便為今年5月預計公佈的戰略計劃做好準備。

  • Turning to our fourth quarter results, which we do not believe reflect the full potential of this company. 2025 was a challenging year. And while some of the pressures we are facing are macro-driven, others are firmly with our control and we are moving with urgency, focus and discipline to address them.

    接下來談談我們第四季的業績,我們認為這並未反映出公司的全部潛力。 2025年是充滿挑戰的一年。雖然我們面臨的一些壓力是宏觀因素造成的,但有些壓力則完全在我們掌控之中,我們正在以緊迫感、專注力和紀律性來應對這些壓力。

  • Wholesale shipments and associated margins were negatively impacted by intentional actions to address elevated dealer inventory, particularly touring inventory in North America through interventions on both the supply and demand sides.

    為解決經銷商庫存過高問題,特別是北美地區的巡迴庫存問題,採取了乾預措施,導致批發出貨量和相關利潤受到負面影響。

  • During the quarter, we reduced wholesale shipments and implemented targeted promotions to accelerate the return to balanced retail inventory levels.

    本季度,我們減少了批發出貨量,並實施了有針對性的促銷活動,以加快恢復零售庫存平衡水準。

  • These actions are beginning to deliver results. Ryder response has been positive with North American retail sales growth in the quarter, accelerating into December, yielding early indications of improving dealer profitability.

    這些措施開始取得成效。Ryder 的正面回應體現在北美零售額在本季的成長,並在 12 月加速成長,初步顯示經銷商獲利能力正在改善。

  • We plan to continue these interventions with discipline as we work to optimize retail inventory, positioning the business in our dealer network for more sustainable performance going forward.

    我們將繼續有條不紊地採取這些幹預措施,努力優化零售庫存,使我們的經銷商網路業務在未來能夠實現更永續的業績。

  • That said, we're encouraged by the early green shoots we're seeing. Our immediate priorities are both straightforward and deliberate. First, we believe we are stabilizing the business by restoring dealer confidence and aligning wholesale activity with retail demand.

    儘管如此,我們看到的這些早期跡象還是令人鼓舞的。我們眼下的工作重點既明確又經過深思熟慮。首先,我們相信透過恢復經銷商信心並使批發活動與零售需求保持一致,我們正在穩定業務。

  • Second, we are finalizing a strategy that we believe builds a durable platform that leans into our core and positions Harley-Davidson to return to sustainable growth. Early in my tenure, I committed to immediate priorities, improving dealer profitability, reigniting brand momentum and reducing costs.

    其次,我們正在敲定一項策略,我們相信這項策略將建立一個持久的平台,該平台以我們的核心業務為基礎,使哈雷戴維森能夠重回可持續增長的軌道。在我上任之初,我便致力於當務之急,提高經銷商獲利能力,重振品牌勢頭,並降低成本。

  • These commitments have not changed. Today, I'll walk you through the immediate actions already underway to advance these priorities. These actions are in the following areas restoring our relationship with improving inventory management, sharpening our customer focus with the right portfolio, leaning further into the strengths of our branded community and enhancing financial flexibility.

    這些承諾沒有改變。今天,我將向大家介紹為推進這些優先事項而採取的緊急行動。這些行動將在以下幾個方面展開:透過改善庫存管理來恢復我們與客戶的關係;透過合適的產品組合來加強我們對客戶的關注;進一步發揮我們品牌社群的優勢;以及增強財務靈活性。

  • Let me start with our dealer network. Harley-Davidson's dealer network is best-in-class distinguished by unmatched enthusiasm reach and strength. While the network remains a competitive advantage, dealer health today is uneven with some dealers facing challenges.

    讓我先從我們的經銷商網路說起。哈雷戴維森的經銷商網絡是一流的,以其無與倫比的熱情、覆蓋範圍和實力而著稱。雖然經銷商網路仍然是一項競爭優勢,但目前經銷商的經營狀況參差不齊,一些經銷商面臨挑戰。

  • Dealer health is not optional. It is a critical foundation for our long-term growth and earnings power. We're resetting the relationship between the motor company and our dealers, that relationship must be built on mutual trust and respect shared objectives, shared accountability and shared success.

    經銷商的健康狀況不容忽視。這是我們長期成長和獲利能力的重要基礎。我們正在重塑汽車公司與經銷商之間的關係,而這種關係必須建立在相互信任和尊重、共同目標、共同責任和共同成功的基礎上。

  • Healthy inventory levels and a healthy dealer network are non-negotiable. Over the last couple of months, I continue a series of roundtable discussions with our North American and European dealers, Most recently, I spent time in our European markets, including attending the Verona Bike Expo and a HOG Chapter morning meeting.

    健康的庫存水準和健康的經銷商網路是不可或缺的。在過去的幾個月裡,我繼續與北美和歐洲的經銷商進行一系列圓桌討論。最近,我花時間參觀了歐洲市場,包括參加了維羅納摩托車展和哈雷車主俱樂部(HOG)分會的晨會。

  • The insights from these engagements were consistent with my US visits. Extraordinary passion for the Harley-Davidson brand and strong commitment to the business.

    這些交流中獲得的見解與我在美國訪問期間的感受一致。對哈雷戴維森品牌有著非凡的熱情,並對公司業務有著堅定的投入。

  • Importantly, there is broad alignment around the changes required to drive sustainable growth going forward. These include healthier inventory levels, improved product mix, simpler and more effective rider engagement programs and greater flexibility to reflect local market conditions.

    重要的是,各方對於推動未來永續成長所需的變革已達成廣泛共識。這些措施包括更健康的庫存水準、更完善的產品組合、更簡單有效的騎士互動計劃以及更大的靈活性以反映當地市場狀況。

  • Drawing on my experience and franchise-based models, I know that sustained success depends on alignment, transparency and disciplined execution.

    憑藉我的經驗和特許經營模式,我知道持續的成功取決於協調一致、透明公開和嚴格執行。

  • We are committed to reestablishing that foundation, beginning with immediate interventions that we expect to improve our dealers' retail performance and financial trajectory while accelerating trust across the network.

    我們致力於重建這項基礎,首先採取立即乾預措施,我們期望這些措施能夠改善經銷商的零售業績和財務狀況,同時加快整個網路的信任度。

  • As we mentioned in Q3, we've begun to act with two quick and meaningful changes to support our dealers. First, we reviewed our fuel facility model guidelines adjusting the scope to better balance global brand identity with celebrating local communities.

    正如我們在第三季提到的,我們已經開始採取兩個快速且有意義的改變來支持我們的經銷商。首先,我們審查了燃料設施模型指南,調整了範圍,以更好地平衡全球品牌形象與慶祝當地社區之間的關係。

  • Second, we made a commitment to reevaluate e-commerce. The company's e-commerce strategy has not historically delivered the intended results. It has created customer confusion and driven excessive discounting, placing unnecessary pressure on dealer economics. We've taken corrective action in North America by shifting to a model that is intended to drive incremental dealership traffic to support motorcycle sales. In the near term, our focus is clear.

    其次,我們承諾重新評估電子商務。該公司以往的電子商務策略並未達到預期效果。這造成了消費者的困惑,並導致了過度折扣,給經銷商的經濟狀況帶來了不必要的壓力。我們在北美採取了糾正措施,轉向旨在增加經銷商客流量以支援摩托車銷售的模式。短期內,我們的重點很明確。

  • Support our dealers, drive traffic to dealerships and execute against our core business, selling motorcycles.

    支持我們的經銷商,為經銷商帶來客流量,並執行我們的核心業務-銷售摩托車。

  • While retail sales are still meaningfully below what we would consider a healthy run rate, the early progress is encouraging. We believe these actions are improving predictability and positioning the business for more consistent execution.

    雖然零售額仍遠低於我們所認為的健康水平,但目前的進展令人鼓舞。我們相信這些舉措將提高業務的可預測性,並使業務能夠更穩定地執行。

  • Turning to inventory.

    開始清點庫存。

  • On our Q3 earnings call, I was clear that inventory discipline and adapting to the realities of the current retail environment would be central to our focus. As we've dug deeper, it's become evident that the challenges are more significant than initially anticipated, and we're addressing them head on.

    在第三季財報電話會議上,我明確表示,庫存控制和適應當前零售環境的實際情況將是我們工作的重中之重。隨著調查的深入,我們發現挑戰比最初預想的要大得多,我們正在迎難而上。

  • We are aggressively addressing inventory through targeted promotional support for touring models and disciplined quarterly planning by model region and dealership -- we believe this approach allows us to align inventory with sales trajectories, account for regional needs and proactively manage production and shipments accounting for seasonality.

    我們正在積極解決庫存問題,透過有針對性的促銷支援巡迴車型,以及按車型區域和經銷商進行嚴格的季度規劃——我們相信這種方法能夠使庫存與銷售軌跡保持一致,滿足區域需求,並主動管理生產和發貨,同時考慮季節性因素。

  • The touring overhang remains pronounced and is being actively worked down through disciplined interventions designed to move the product efficiently without undermining long-term brand value. In North America, dealer inventory declined 16% relative to the year-end 2024 levels. Globally, dealer inventory was down 17% over the same period. meaningfully exceeding our 10% global reduction target.

    巡迴積壓問題依然十分突出,目前正在透過有條不紊的干預措施積極解決,旨在高效地銷售產品,同時又不損害品牌的長期價值。在北美,經銷商庫存相對於 2024 年底的水準下降了 16%。同期,全球經銷商庫存下降了17%,顯著超過了我們10%的全球降幅目標。

  • This represents solid progress against our priorities, and I'm pleased with the team's execution and delivery. Overall, retail performance through the quarter was broadly in line with internal expectations.

    這代表我們在優先事項方面取得了實質進展,我對團隊的執行和交付成果感到滿意。整體而言,本季零售業績基本符合內部預期。

  • North American retail was up year-over-year, while international retail, particularly in EMEA, was softer than we expected. We expect the actions we are taking to assist dealers in moving through inventory to restore dealer health to have a near-term impact on our financial results.

    北美零售額較去年同期成長,而國際零售額,尤其是歐洲、中東和非洲地區的零售額,則低於我們的預期。我們預計,為幫助經銷商清理庫存、恢復經銷商健康所採取的措施,將在短期內對我們的財務表現產生影響。

  • With that in mind, we view 2026 as a transition year as we reset business and finalize our new strategy. I see a path to return to long-term earnings and free cash flow power of the business, to the levels we know are possible. I can tell you we expect margins to be under pressure in the near term as production runs below wholesale, creating operating deleverage.

    有鑑於此,我們將 2026 年視為過渡年,屆時我們將重新調整業務並最終確定我們的新策略。我認為公司有辦法恢復長期獲利能力和自由現金流,達到我們知道是可能的水平。我可以告訴你,由於產量低於批發量,導致營運槓桿率下降,我們預計短期內利潤率將面臨壓力。

  • These are deliberate actions that we believe are necessary to support both dealer and company profitability and ultimately rebuild the long-term earnings power of the business. As I've discussed, we are in the early stages of a reset.

    我們認為,採取這些審慎的措施對於支持經銷商和公司的獲利能力,並最終重建企業的長期獲利能力是必要的。正如我之前所說,我們正處於重置的初期階段。

  • We've made decisive changes in the work underway across the organization is designed to rebuild momentum in the right way for the long term. Turning to the brand and our customer. Our leadership team is reorienting the organization around a clear priority. Our dealers are customer number one. When we enable our dealers to sell, customize and service the motorcycles, our riders want, everyone wins.

    我們已經對整個組織正在進行的工作做出了果斷的改變,旨在以正確的方式重建長期發展勢頭。轉向品牌和我們的客戶。我們的領導團隊正在圍繞一個明確的優先事項重新調整組織方向。我們的經銷商是第一位客戶。當我們讓經銷商能夠銷售、客製化和維修騎士想要的摩托車時,每個人都是贏家。

  • I continue to spend significant time with dealers and riders, including attending a hog chapter gathering in Milan as part of to Europe. The pride those members took in showing either Harley-Davidson or motorcycles was contagious.

    我繼續花大量時間與經銷商和騎手們交流,包括參加在米蘭舉行的哈雷摩托車分會聚會,這是歐洲之旅的一部分。這些成員對展示哈雷戴維森或其他摩托車所表現出的自豪感極具感染力。

  • It's clear our riders view their hardly as their individual motorcycle. Individual expression matters and customization is central to that experience. We have been two lacks on our parts and accessories business in recent years, and that will change. This is what our riders want. It's a critical business for our dealers.

    很明顯,我們的騎士將他們的摩托車視為自己的專屬座駕。個性表達至關重要,而個人化體驗是實現這一目標的核心。近年來,我們在零件和配件業務方面有兩大不足,這種情況將會改變。這就是我們的騎手想要的。這對我們的經銷商來說是一項至關重要的業務。

  • It creates more opportunities for our world-class service technicians, and it is core to what Davidson has always stood for.

    它為我們世界一流的維修技師創造了更多機會,這也是戴維森一直以來所秉持的核心價值。

  • Going forward, our focus in this area will have two parts. Designing and building motorcycles that invite Harley-Davidson customization and ensuring our supply chain can support that demand quickly and reliably. Brand storytelling has always been essential to what makes Harley-Davidson.

    展望未來,我們在這個領域的工作重點將分為兩個部分。設計和製造可供哈雷戴維森進行個人化訂製的摩托車,並確保我們的供應鏈能夠快速可靠地滿足這種需求。品牌故事一直是哈雷戴維森品牌成功的關鍵要素。

  • At its core, our brand celebrates riders and the communities they create. In recent years, our work has been too serious and at times too dark.

    我們的品牌核心理念是讚頌騎乘者以及他們所創造的社群。近年來,我們的工作過於嚴肅,有時甚至過於陰暗。

  • That's not who our riders are. When they ride and gather, our riders are joyful, passionate and community creators. I saw this firsthand and 80th anniversary celebration for a dealership outside Paris, France just a few weeks ago.

    我們的騎手並非如此。我們的騎士在騎車和聚會時,是快樂、充滿熱情和社區創作者。就在幾週前,我在法國巴黎郊外親眼目睹了一家汽車經銷店的 80 週年慶典。

  • Ryder shared stories of journeys they've taken together, including who proudly told me he had written all the way to our factory in Pennsylvania and was wearing his York PA Harley-Davidson gear while standing in Paris.

    Ryder 分享了他們一起經歷的旅程故事,其中一位自豪地告訴我,他曾寫信到我們在賓夕法尼亞州的工廠,並且當時他穿著賓夕法尼亞州約克市的哈雷戴維森裝備站在巴黎。

  • You'll soon see more optimistic, joyful brand work from us. advertising that celebrates our community and a uniquely Harley-Davidson way. Turning to product. To better align aspiration with accessibility, we are acting more breadth and flexibility in our portfolio.

    不久之後,您將看到我們更多充滿樂觀和喜悅的品牌作品,這些廣告將頌揚我們的社群,並以哈雷戴維森獨有的方式呈現。轉向產品。為了更好地將願景與可及性結合,我們在產品組合方面採取了更廣泛、更靈活的策略。

  • That means being honest about where pricing and portfolio choices have limited our reach and making deliberate choices to widen the funnel in our core. My own interactions with dealers and riders over the past four months, in addition to customer research and recent retail trends validate what our riders want.

    這意味著要坦誠面對定價和產品組合選擇在哪些方面限制了我們的覆蓋範圍,並做出深思熟慮的選擇來擴大我們核心業務的管道。在過去四個月裡,我與經銷商和騎士的互動,以及客戶調查和最近的零售趨勢,都證實了我們的騎士想要什麼。

  • The look, sound and feel of a Harley-Davidson Motor settle, coupled with the ability to customize their Harley to make it their own.

    哈雷戴維森摩托車的外觀、聲音和感覺都令人著迷,再加上可以對哈雷進行個性化定制,使其成為自己的專屬座駕。

  • The used market continues to reinforce the power of the brand and a strong desire for customers to purchase our products but at a price that is more aligned with today's economic realities. In fact, as we look at used auction activity, we feel enthused about recent demand trends and the positive impact they're having on used values, especially in Harley-Davidson core Softail models.

    二手市場持續鞏固品牌的實力,也體現了顧客購買我們產品的強烈意願,但價格卻更符合當今的經濟現實。事實上,當我們觀察二手車拍賣活動時,我們對近期的需求趨勢及其對二手車價值的正面影響感到振奮,尤其是在哈雷戴維森核心軟尾車型方面。

  • What's clear is that the portfolio actions taken over recent years have put the brand out of reach for some existing and potential riders to win, -- it's clear we need to sharpen our product focus, not only creating the highest-quality motorcycles that our riders want to ride, but doing so with a price in mind.

    顯而易見的是,近年來採取的產品組合策略讓一些現有和潛在的騎手無法贏得該品牌——顯然,我們需要更加專注於產品,不僅要創造騎手想要騎乘的最高質量的摩托車,而且還要考慮到價格。

  • We need to ensure that these are products that our dealers are excited about and able to sell at a profit level that works for them and for us. On to the team in our org structure, execution requires the right team and structure.

    我們需要確保這些產品能夠讓我們的經銷商感到興奮,並且能夠以對他們和我們都合適的利潤水平進行銷售。接下來談談我們組織架構中的團隊,執行力的提升需要適當的團隊和架構。

  • We've made targeted leadership team and organizational changes to strengthen our capabilities across product, supply chain, marketing, technology and brand. We've added back new perspectives and welcomed back proven leaders with deep knowledge of Harley-Davidson's rider culture and community. Importantly, Harley-Davidson should be a great place to work as well as a great business.

    我們對領導團隊和組織進行了有針對性的調整,以增強我們在產品、供應鏈、行銷、技術和品牌方面的能力。我們引入了新的視角,並迎回了對哈雷戴維森騎行文化和社區有著深刻了解的經驗豐富的領導者。重要的是,哈雷戴維森不僅應該是一家偉大的企業,更應該是一個絕佳的工作場所。

  • Strong corporate culture isn't just good for employee morale is good for business. Rebuilding our culture and identity as a Milwaukee icon truly matters. My direct reports are all working from Milwaukee at our Juno Avenue headquarters and we will be formally reopening the office later this quarter.

    強大的企業文化不僅有利於員工士氣,也有利於企業發展。重建我們作為密爾瓦基標誌性城市的文化和身份至關重要。我的直接下屬都在我們位於密爾瓦基朱諾大道的總部工作,我們將在本季稍後正式重新開放辦公室。

  • By going back to the Bricks at our Juno Avenue headquarters, we are not only reigniting the cultural beat that has defined this company for over 120 years. But with these changes, we are improving decision-making speed, cross-functional collaboration and critically accountability.

    透過回歸我們在朱諾大道總部的磚牆,我們不僅重新點燃了這家公司120多年來一直秉持的文化脈動。但透過這些改變,我們正在提高決策速度、跨職能協作以及至關重要的問責制。

  • I'm particularly pleased with how much more agile, nimble and speedy our leadership team is becoming working shoulder to shoulder in Milwaukee. I'm excited to get our teams back to Juno in the coming months. It's an inspiring place to work.

    我尤其欣慰的是,我們的領導團隊在密爾瓦基並肩工作,變得更有彈性、更敏捷、更有效率。我很期待在接下來的幾個月裡帶領我們的團隊重返 Juno。這是一個令人振奮的工作場所。

  • Lastly, I'll touch on the financial actions we are taking to reposition the business for success. We are conducting a rigorous end-to-end review of our cost base and operating expenses supported by third-party specialists.

    最後,我將談談我們為使公司重回正軌、走向成功而採取的財務措施。我們正在第三方專家的支持下,對成本基礎和營運費用進行嚴格的端到端審查。

  • Our current corporate overhead manufacturing capacity and overall operating expenses are built for materially higher volumes than today's demand, and we will be addressing this mismatch head on. We will share more details in May.

    我們目前的公司間接生產能力和整體營運費用是按照遠高於當前需求的產量來建構的,我們將正面解決這個不匹配問題。我們將在五月公佈更多細節。

  • However, on top of previously announced targets, we anticipate at least $150 million of annual run rate savings that will impact 2027 and beyond.

    然而,除了先前宣布的目標之外,我們預計每年至少可節省 1.5 億美元,這將對 2027 年及以後產生影響。

  • In Q4 2025, we renegotiated and funded the term loan with LiveWire, reducing the principal to $75 million. LiveWire is now working diligently to attract its own sources of capital to continue to finance its operations and future plans.

    2025 年第四季度,我們與 LiveWire 重新協商並提供了定期貸款,將本金減少至 7,500 萬美元。LiveWire 目前正努力吸引自有資金來源,以繼續為其營運和未來計劃提供資金。

  • We remain excited about LiveWire's newest motorcycle to Honcho, soon to be in market later this year, well aligned with the evolution of the EV motorcycle category toward smaller mini motors. Turning to HDFS. The recent transaction has delivered meaningful capital benefits.

    我們仍然對 LiveWire 即將推出的 Honcho 最新摩托車感到興奮,這款摩托車將於今年稍後上市,與電動摩托車類別向小型微型電機發展的方向非常契合。轉向HDFS。最近的這筆交易帶來了可觀的資本利得。

  • We now expect to be able to run the HDFS business with less capital than has been tied to this business historically.

    我們現在預計能夠以比以往與該業務相關的資本更少的資金來經營 HDFS 業務。

  • With these changes, we plan to take HDFS class-leading returns and delivering even higher ROE than we did historically. And as HDFS asset base rebuilds over the coming years, we expect to get back to earnings levels that run below historical levels.

    透過這些改變,我們計劃獲得HDFS領先業界的回報,並實現比以往更高的ROE。隨著 HDFS 資產基礎在未來幾年重建,我們預計其獲利水準將回落至低於歷史水準。

  • Going forward, HDFS will operate with significantly lower capital commitments and with funding support from two trusted partners. HDFS continues to be a strategic asset for Harley-Davidson and a critical enabler for our dealer network, and we will talk more about HDFS strategically during our Q1 earnings call in May.

    展望未來,HDFS 將在大幅降低資本投入並獲得兩個值得信賴的合作夥伴的資金支持下運作。HDFS 仍然是哈雷戴維森的策略資產,也是我們經銷商網路的重要推動因素,我們將在 5 月的第一季財報電話會議上對 HDFS 進行更多策略性討論。

  • While a key priority remains returning excess capital to shareholders, we are currently evaluating the timing of our share buyback initiatives.

    雖然將多餘的資本回饋給股東仍然是我們的首要任務,但我們目前正在評估股票回購計畫的時機。

  • In the near term, we expect to be measured in our approach to share repurchase and while we finalize our strategic plan that we expect to announce in May. Before I hand it over to Jonathan, I want to reiterate that Harley-Davidson has an iconic brand, a loyal community and a dealer network unlike any other.

    短期內,我們預計在股票回購方面會採取謹慎的態度,同時我們將最終確定戰略計劃,預計將於 5 月公佈。在把麥克風交給喬納森之前,我想重申一下,哈雷戴維森擁有一個標誌性的品牌、一個忠實的社區以及一個獨一無二的經銷商網絡。

  • We are taking the hard necessary steps to stabilize the business and rebuild trust, which we believe will restore our long-term earnings power. The work is underway. -- execution is improving, and we are committed to delivering results.

    我們正在採取必要的艱難措施來穩定業務並重建信任,我們相信這將恢復我們的長期盈利能力。工作正在進行中——執行情況正在改善,我們致力於取得成果。

  • Thank you. And now I'll hand it over to Jonathan.

    謝謝。現在我把它交給喬納森。

  • Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

    Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

  • Thank you, Artee, and good morning to all. I plan to start on Page 4 and 5 of the presentation, where I will briefly summarize the financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025. Subsequently, I will go into further detail on each business segment.

    謝謝你,Artee,大家早安。我計劃從簡報的第 4 頁和第 5 頁開始,簡要總結 2025 年第四季和全年的財務表現。接下來,我將詳細介紹每個業務板塊。

  • As a reminder, we closed what we call the HDFS transaction in Q4 at the end of October. The HDFS transaction is a strategic partnership with KKR & PIMCO that we expect will transform Harley-Davidson Financial Services into a capital-light derisked business model.

    提醒一下,我們在 10 月底完成了我們稱之為 HDFS 交易的第四季度交易。HDFS 交易是與 KKR 和 PIMCO 的策略合作,我們預期這將使 Harley-Davidson Financial Services 轉型為資本輕、風險低的商業模式。

  • It also changes the financial profile of HDFS starting in Q4 of '25 and affords a high degree of optionality on how we fund and run that business.

    這也改變了 HDFS 從 2025 年第四季開始的財務狀況,並為我們在該業務的融資和營運方面提供了高度的選擇權。

  • As Artee cited earlier, the financial results in 2025 have come under pressure in the current challenging operating environment. We have moved immediately to make inventory management and discipline, a central focus to resetting the business.

    正如 Artee 先前所提到的,在當前充滿挑戰的經營環境下,2025 年的財務表現面臨壓力。我們立即採取行動,將庫存管理和紀律作為重塑業務的核心重點。

  • This is evident in Q4 results and will continue to be essential priority as we move forward. Let me start with consolidated financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025. Consolidated revenue in the fourth quarter was down 28% driven by both HDMC revenue being down 10% and by HDFS revenue being done 59%.

    這一點在第四季度業績中已得到體現,並將繼續是我們未來工作的重中之重。首先,讓我來看看2025年第四季的合併財務表現。第四季綜合收入下降了 28%,其中 HDMC 收入下降了 10%,HDFS 收入下降了 59%。

  • Consolidated operating income in the fourth quarter came in at a loss of $361 million compared to an operating loss of $193 million in Q4 of 2024. This was driven by an operating loss of $260 million at HDMC and an operating loss of $82 million at HDFS.

    第四季綜合營業收入虧損 3.61 億美元,而 2024 年第四季營業虧損為 1.93 億美元。這主要是由於 HDMC 營運虧損 2.6 億美元和 HDFS 營運虧損 8,200 萬美元造成的。

  • The loss at HDFS was driven by costs associated with liability management activities related to the HDFS transaction, where we retired a significant portion of HDFS debt in Q4 of '25. The operating loss at LiveWire was $18 million, which was in line with our expectations at $8 million favourable to a year ago. In Q4, earnings per share was a loss of $2.44 and which compares to a loss of $0.93 in Q4 of 2024.

    HDFS 的虧損是由於與 HDFS 交易相關的負債管理活動所產生的成本造成的,我們在 2025 年第四季償還了 HDFS 的大部分債務。LiveWire 的營業虧損為 1800 萬美元,與我們去年同期 800 萬美元的預期相符。第四季每股虧損 2.44 美元,而 2024 年第四季每股虧損 0.93 美元。

  • Turning full year 2025, consolidated financial results on Page 5. Consolidated revenue of $4.5 billion was 14% lower compared to last year, while consolidated operating income of $387 million compares to $417 million in full year 2024. For the full year 2025, earnings per share was $2.78 and compares to $3.44 in full year 2024.

    截至 2025 年全年,綜合財務表現請見第 5 頁。合併收入為 45 億美元,比去年下降了 14%;合併營業收入為 3.87 億美元,而 2024 年全年為 4.17 億美元。2025 年全年每股收益為 2.78 美元,而 2024 年全年每股收益為 3.44 美元。

  • Now turning to Page 6 and HDMC retail performance. As Artee already mentioned, in Q4, North American retail sales of new motorcycles were up with 1,847 motorcycles versus prior year. In Q4, international retail sales of new motorcycles were down 10% and with 9,440 motorcycles versus prior year, resulting in Q4, global retail sales of new motorcycles being down 1% at 25,287 motorcycles versus prior year.

    現在就來看看第 6 頁和 HDMC 零售業績。正如 Artee 已經提到的,第四季度北美新摩托車零售銷量比去年同期成長了 1,847 輛。第四季度,國際新摩托車零售銷量下降 10%,為 9,440 輛,而去年同期為 9,440 輛;因此,第四季度全球新摩托車零售銷量下降 1%,為 25,287 輛,而去年同期為 25,287 輛。

  • The choppiness and volatility in global retail results is a continuation of what we have observed since mid-2024, with a difficult global backdrop in big-ticket discretionary sectors.

    全球零售績效的波動和不穩定性延續了我們自 2024 年年中以來觀察到的趨勢,而全球大宗非必需消費品產業也面臨著艱難的全球環境。

  • Pricing continues to be on the top of customers' minds given the current global setup that includes inflationary pressures and interest rates that continue to run above recent historical lows.

    鑑於當前全球局勢,包括通膨壓力和持續高於近期歷史低點的利率,價格仍然是消費者最關心的問題。

  • In North America, Q4 retail sales were up 5%, where US retail sales were up 6% and Canada retail sales were down 7%. For the full year 2025, North America retail sales written 13%. In the quarter, we experienced strength in our Grand American touring product, up 6%, driven by the promotional support in the marketplace.

    北美第四季零售額成長5%,其中美國零售額成長6%,加拿大零售額下降7%。預計到 2025 年全年,北美零售額將成長 13%。本季度,我們的 Grand American 旅行產品表現強勁,成長了 6%,這得益於市場上的促銷支持。

  • We also saw strength in lower-priced sport motorcycle models, up 33% as the updated pricing and marketing resonated with our dealers and customers.

    我們也看到低價運動摩托車車款表現強勁,銷量成長了 33%,因為更新後的價格和行銷策略引起了經銷商和客戶的共鳴。

  • Within Grand American Touring, Trike was down 24% on very tight inventory availability in advance of the January 2026 new Trike launch. In EMEA, Q4 retail sales declined by 24%, driven by weakness across the region and different bike families.

    在 Grand American Touring 品牌中,由於 2026 年 1 月新款三輪摩托車上市前的庫存非常緊張,三輪摩托車銷量下降了 24%。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,第四季度零售額下降了 24%,這是由於該地區整體疲軟以及不同自行車系列的銷量下滑所致。

  • EMEA continued to be adversely impacted by overall macroeconomic conditions. For the full year 2025, EMEA retail sales were down 11%. In the quarter, we experienced the most weakness in the touring and soft tail categories.

    歐洲、中東和非洲地區持續受到整體宏觀經濟狀況的不利影響。2025 年全年,歐洲、中東和非洲地區的零售額下降了 11%。本季度,旅行車和軟尾登山車市場表現最為疲軟。

  • In Asia Pacific, Q4 retail sales declined by 1%, which was a significant improvement from the first half of 2025 and mostly attributed to a continued challenging environment in China, which was down meaningfully. The Q4 retail sales included positive results in Japan and the Asia emerging markets.

    亞太地區第四季零售額下降了 1%,與 2025 年上半年相比有了顯著改善,這主要歸因於中國市場持續充滿挑戰的環境,中國市場的銷售額大幅下降。第四季零售銷售額在日本和亞洲新興市場均取得正面成果。

  • For the full year 2025, Asia Pacific retail sales were down 15% and the softness was most acute in China for the full year and Japan for the first half of 2025. In the quarter, we saw retail strength across all families, except for sport and lightweight motorcycles which still had a combined inventory down nearly 30%.

    2025 年全年,亞太地區零售額下降 15%,其中中國全年疲軟最為嚴重,日本 2025 年上半年疲軟程度最為嚴重。本季度,除運動型和輕型摩托車外,所有車型的零售業績均表現強勁,而運動型和輕型摩托車的庫存總和仍下降了近 30%。

  • In Latin America, Q4 retail sales increased by 10%, where both Brazil, our largest Latin American market and Mexico were up while other Latin American countries were down modestly year-over-year. For the full year 2025, Latin American retail sales were up 2%, where both Brazil and Mexico were up.

    在拉丁美洲,第四季度零售額成長了 10%,其中巴西(我們在拉丁美洲最大的市場)和墨西哥均有所成長,而其他拉丁美洲國家的零售額則較去年同期略有下降。2025 年全年,拉丁美洲零售額成長 2%,其中巴西和墨西哥的零售額均有所成長。

  • For the full year 2025, global retail sales of new motorcycles were down 12% versus the prior year, where both North America and international markets turned in a similar performance. As Artee mentioned earlier, dealer inventory at the end of Q4 was down 17% versus the end of Q4 in the prior year. This compares to our stated goal at the beginning of 2025 of reducing dealer inventory by 10%.

    2025 年全年,全球新摩托車零售銷售量比前一年下降 12%,北美和國際市場的表現也類似。正如 Artee 先前所提到的,第四季末經銷商庫存比去年同期下降了 17%。這與我們2025年初提出的將經銷商庫存減少10%的目標相比,仍有差距。

  • North America dealer inventory ended down 16% and international dealer inventory ended down 20%. And with the regions coming in between down 19% to down 23%. This allows Harley-Davidson dealers to start the 2026 writing season much cleaner and with an appropriate as we look at the coming quarters. As discussed, we specifically focused on assisting dealers to reduce touring motorcycle inventory in North America as the market displayed its price and value sensitivity.

    北美經銷商庫存下降 16%,國際經銷商庫存下降 20%。而中間地區的降幅則在 19% 到 23% 之間。這樣一來,哈雷戴維森經銷商就可以更清晰、更恰當地開始 2026 年的寫作季,展望接下來的幾季。正如之前討論過的,我們特別關注協助經銷商減少北美地區的旅行摩托車庫存,因為市場對價格和價值非常敏感。

  • Let me briefly touch upon incentive and promotional spend within the current environment. In Q4, we selectively provided incentive and promotional support to Harley-Davidson dealers in the form of interest rate assistance low APR, customer cash and dealer cash credit.

    讓我簡要談談當前環境下的激勵和促銷支出。第四季度,我們選擇性地向哈雷戴維森經銷商提供激勵和促銷支持,形式包括利率援助(低年利率)、客戶現金和經銷商現金信貸。

  • As I covered last quarter and already mentioned earlier, dealers have more touring inventory in the channel than is desired. And while we have made progress in Q4, we still have more work to do.

    正如我上個季度所報導的,以及之前已經提到的,經銷商通路中的巡迴庫存比預期要多。雖然我們在第四季度取得了一些進展,但我們仍有許多工作要做。

  • Based upon discussions with our dealers in December of 2025, we determined to continue with consumer promotions into Q1 of 2026 in order to work through these units, and therefore, we have taken accrual in our Q4 2025 financials. Again, we expect this will help us get out of the gate stronger in 2026 to help drive retail performance.

    根據 2025 年 12 月與經銷商的討論,我們決定將消費者促銷活動延續到 2026 年第一季度,以便消化這些庫存,因此,我們在 2025 年第四季度的財務報表中計提了應計費用。我們再次預期這將有助於我們在 2026 年取得更強勁的開局,從而推動零售業績成長。

  • Now turning to Page 7 and HDMC revenue performance. In Q4, HDMC revenue decreased by 10%, coming in at $379 million. were the biggest drivers of the decline included net pricing and incentive spend and decreased wholesale volumes.

    現在就來看看第 7 頁和 HDMC 的收入表現。第四季度,HDMC 營收下降了 10%,至 3.79 億美元。導致收入下降的主要原因是淨定價和激勵支出以及批發量下降。

  • For the full year 2025, revenue decreased by 13%, coming in at $3.6 billion, where the biggest driver of the decline was decreased wholesale volumes, where we shipped around 125,000 motorcycles, down 16% from the prior year, while net pricing was largely flat on the year.

    2025 年全年,收入下降了 13%,至 36 億美元,下降的主要原因是批發量減少,我們出貨了約 125,000 輛摩托車,比前一年下降了 16%,而淨價格與上一年基本持平。

  • Now turning to Page 8 and HDMC margin performance. In Q4, HDMC gross profit came in at a loss of $30 million, which compares to a loss of $3 million in the prior year. Q4 is typically our lowest gross margin quarter due to seasonality and model year changeover.

    現在就來看看第 8 頁和 HDMC 利潤率表現。第四季,HDMC毛利潤虧損3,000萬美元,而上年同期虧損300萬美元。由於季節性因素和車型換代,第四季通常是我們毛利率最低的季度。

  • The year-over-year decrease was driven by the negative impacts from increased tariff costs and net pricing and incentive spend while partially offset by the positive impact from manufacturing costs, including leverage and favourable foreign exchange.

    年比下降的原因是關稅成本和淨定價以及激勵支出增加的負面影響,但部分被製造成本(包括槓桿作用和有利的匯率)帶來的正面影響所抵消。

  • In Q4, operating expenses totalled $230 million, which was $19 million higher compared to prior year or 9% due to greater marketing spend with the introduction of the North America focused marketing development fund for our dealers. In Q4, HDMC had an operating loss of $260 million, which compares to an operating loss of $214 million in the prior year period.

    第四季度,營運支出總計 2.3 億美元,比上年同期增加 1,900 萬美元,增幅達 9%,原因是為經銷商推出了以北美為重點的行銷發展基金,從而增加了行銷支出。第四季度,HDMC 的營業虧損為 2.6 億美元,而去年同期營業虧損為 2.14 億美元。

  • Turning our attention to whole year 2025 margins. For the full year 2025, HDMC gross margin was 24.2%, which compares to 28% in the prior year. The decrease of 380 basis points was driven by the negative impacts from incremental tariffs in calendar year 2025, which we will cover on the next slide, negative operating leverage and lower volumes.

    接下來,我們將目光轉向2025年全年獲利。2025 年全年,HDMC 的毛利率為 24.2%,而前一年為 28%。380 個基點的下降是由於 2025 年曆年新增關稅的負面影響(我們將在下一張投影片中介紹)、負面經營槓桿和銷售下降所致。

  • These impacts were partially offset by the positive performance from lower supply management and logistics costs, favourable mix, foreign exchange and net pricing was largely flat for the full year. Lastly, for the full year of 2025, operating expenses came in at $895 million, which were higher by $18 million, due primarily to the marketing development fund mentioned previously.

    這些影響部分被較低的供應管理和物流成本、有利的產品組合、外匯匯率以及全年淨價格基本持平帶來的正面表現所抵消。最後,2025 年全年營運支出為 8.95 億美元,比去年同期增加了 1,800 萬美元,主要是由於前面提到的市場發展基金。

  • For the full year 2025, HDMC operating income was a loss of $29 million, which compares to operating income of $278 million for the full year 2024.

    2025 年全年,HDMC 的營業收入虧損 2,900 萬美元,而 2024 年全年的營業收入為 2.78 億美元。

  • Turning to Slide 12. In 2025, the global tariff environment was more volatile and uncertain than we had expected at the beginning of the year. In Q4 of 2025, the cost of new or increased tariffs was $22 million. And for the full year of 2025, the cost of new or increased tariffs was $67 million. This included direct tariff exposure, Harley-Davidson importing and exporting product as well as indirect tariff exposure from suppliers.

    翻到第12張投影片。2025 年,全球關稅環境比我們年初預期的更加動盪和不確定。2025 年第四季度,新增或提高關稅的成本為 2,200 萬美元。2025 年全年,新增或增加的關稅成本為 6,700 萬美元。這包括哈雷戴維森公司進出口產品的直接關稅風險,以及供應商帶來的間接關稅風險。

  • This excluded pricing mitigation actions as well as operational costs relating to new or increased tariffs. Harley-Davidson is a business very cantered in and around the United States. Three of our four manufacturing centres are US based and 100% of our US core product is manufactured in the US we also have a US centric approach to sourcing with approximately 75% of component purchasing coming from the US.

    這不包括價格緩解措施以及與新增或提高關稅相關的營運成本。哈雷戴維森是一家主要在美國及其周邊地區開展業務的企業。我們四個製造中心中有三個位於美國,我們100%的美國核心產品都是在美國製造的。此外,我們的採購也以美國為中心,約75%的零件採購來自美國。

  • We have a number of actions underway to mitigate the impact, and we expect this situation will remain fluid given the uncertainty that still exists.

    我們正在採取多項措施來減輕影響,鑑於目前仍存在許多不確定因素,我們預計這種情況仍將瞬息萬變。

  • As mentioned earlier, we closed the HDFS transaction in Q4 at the end of October. Just to restate a recap what we talked about in greater detail on the last earnings call the HDFS transaction includes three key components back book sales, sale of approximately $6 billion of existing HDFS loan receivables forward flow agreement, the sale of future HDFS loan originations and the sale of equity interest sale of a 9.8% common equity interest in HDFS to KKR & PIMCO.

    如前所述,我們在第四季度,也就是 10 月底完成了 HD​​FS 交易。簡單回顧一下我們在上次財報電話會議上詳細討論的內容,HDFS 交易包括三個關鍵部分:出售現有帳簿、出售約 60 億美元的 HDFS 現有貸款應收款遠期協議、出售 HDFS 未來貸款發放權以及出售股權,即向 KKR 和 PIMCO 出售 HDFS 9.8% 的普通股權。

  • In the fourth quarter, we retired a significant portion of HDFS debt, which resulted in some discrete costs. These discrete liability management costs were $73 million in Q4. We while the full year results were record high earnings for HDFS, Q4 of '25 resulted in an operating loss of $82 million for HDFS.

    第四季度,我們償還了HDFS的大部分債務,這導致了一些單獨的成本。第四季這些獨立的負債管理成本為 7,300 萬美元。儘管HDFS全年業績創歷史新高,但2025年第四季HDFS的營運虧損為8,200萬美元。

  • Let me provide some greater detail. At Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Q4 revenue came in at $106 million versus $257 million in the prior year.

    讓我提供更詳細的資訊。哈雷戴維森金融服務公司第四季營收為 1.06 億美元,而去年同期為 2.57 億美元。

  • The Q4 decrease was driven by lower retail and wholesale finance receivables at lower yields. The decline in retail receivables was due to the sale of the retail back book in the HDFS transaction. In Q4, interest income decreased from $224 million in Q4 of '24 to $46 million in Q4 of '25, while other income increased to $60 million due to new servicing fee streams.

    第四季下降的原因是零售和批發融資應收款減少,收益率降低。零售應收帳款下降是由於在 HDFS 交易中出售了零售庫存帳簿所致。2025 年第四季度,利息收入從 2024 年第四季的 2.24 億美元減少到 2024 年第四季的 4,600 萬美元,而其他收入由於新的服務費收入增加到 6,000 萬美元。

  • On the expense side, Q4 interest expense increased to $130 million from $95 million a year ago. This line item included the $73 million of discrete liability management costs to retire HDFS indebtedness.

    支出方面,第四季利息支出從去年同期的 9,500 萬美元增加到 1.3 億美元。該項包括用於償還 HDFS 債務的 7,300 萬美元獨立負債管理成本。

  • The provision for credit losses decreased to $7 million in Q4 from $72 million a year ago on lower retail finance receivables. Last, Operating expenses came in at $51 million in Q4 versus $43 million a year ago, primarily driven by increased hedging costs and employee costs.

    由於零售金融應收款減少,第四季信貸損失準備金從去年同期的 7,200 萬美元減少至 700 萬美元。最後,第四季的營運支出為 5,100 萬美元,而去年同期為 4,300 萬美元,主要原因是避險成本和員工成本增加。

  • In Q4, HDFS operating income came in at a loss of $82 million. For the full year 2025, HDFS revenue was $869 million, down 16% from prior year primarily due to lower retail receivables and lower wholesale receivables due to the transaction. For the full year 2025, interest income decreased from $891 million to $668 million.

    第四季度,HDFS 的營業收入虧損 8,200 萬美元。2025 年全年,HDFS 的收入為 8.69 億美元,比上年下降 16%,主要原因是由於交易導致零售應收款減少和批發應收款減少。2025 年全年,利息收入從 8.91 億美元減少到 6.68 億美元。

  • For the full year 2025, other income increased from $148 million to $201 million in the prior year, primarily driven by a discrete gain on the sale of residual interest and securitizations a component of the HDFS transaction and by servicing fee income.

    2025 年全年,其他收入從前一年的 1.48 億美元增加到 2.01 億美元,主要得益於出售剩餘權益和證券化(HDFS 交易的一部分)的單筆收益以及服務費收入。

  • For the full year 2025, HDFS operating income was $490 million, record high earnings for HDFS and up from $248 million in full year 2024. The increase was primarily driven by favourable provision for credit loss expense due to the HDFS transaction impact and higher other income, partially offset by lower net interest income and higher operating expenses.

    2025 年全年,HDFS 的營業收入為 4.9 億美元,創 HDFS 的歷史新高,高於 2024 年全年的 2.48 億美元。成長主要得益於HDFS交易影響帶來的信貸損失準備金增加以及其他收入增加,但部分被淨利息收入減少和營運費用增加所抵銷。

  • With the sale of $6 billion of retail finance receivables, the provision for credit loss line item became favourable rather than a cost, reflecting the release of CECL allowance associated with the sold loans.

    隨著 60 億美元零售金融應收款的出售,信貸損失準備金項目從成本變為有利,這反映了與已售貸款相關的 CECL 準備金的釋放。

  • Turning to HDFS loan origination activities, total retail loan originations in Q4 were up 2%, coming in at $487 million in Q4. Commercial receivables came in at $949 million at the end of the year relative to the prior year level of $1 billion, down 6%, reflecting overall lower dealer inventory levels in the channel.

    再來看 HDFS 的貸款發放活動,第四季零售貸款發放總額增加了 2%,達到 4.87 億美元。截至年底,商業應收帳款為 9.49 億美元,而去年同期為 10 億美元,下降了 6%,反映出通路內經銷商庫存水準整體較低。

  • Total gross financing receivables were $2 billion at the end of 2025, where retail receivables were $1 billion and commercial receivables were $949 million. This is a significant change relative to a year ago, resulting from the sale of around $6 billion of HDFS retail loan receivables as part of the HDFS transaction.

    截至 2025 年底,融資應收款總額為 20 億美元,其中零售應收款為 10 億美元,商業應收款為 9.49 億美元。與一年前相比,這是一個重大變化,這是由於作為 HDFS 交易的一部分,出售了約 60 億美元的 HDFS 零售貸款應收款所致。

  • For comparison purposes, gross financing receivables were $7.7 billion at the end of 2024, which includes both retail loans and commercial financing. Total HDFS loan assets fell 74% year-over-year as we shift to a capital-light business model that carried less risk.

    為了進行比較,截至 2024 年底,融資應收款總額為 77 億美元,其中包括零售貸款和商業融資。由於我們轉向資本較少、風險較低的商業模式,HDFS貸款總資產較去年同期下降74%。

  • Now turning to Slide 13 for the LiveWire segment. On a full year basis, electric motorcycle units increased by 7% and static units increased by 15%, while consolidated revenue decreased by 3% and due to increased incentives associated with the Twist & Go promotion. LiveWire maintained its position as number one retailer in the US 50-plus horsepower on-road EV segment and had its second consecutive record-setting quarter for retail sales.

    現在就來看看第 13 張投影片,了解 LiveWire 部分。從全年來看,電動摩托車銷量成長了 7%,固定式摩托車銷量成長了 15%,而綜合收入下降了 3%,這是由於與「扭動即走」促銷活動相關的激勵措施增加所致。LiveWire 繼續保持其在美國 50 匹馬力以上公路電動車細分市場中排名第一的零售商地位,並連續第二季創下零售銷售紀錄。

  • Consolidated operating loss decreased by 32%, driving a 45% decrease in net cash used during the year excluding the $75 million of proceeds from the term loan with HD. During Q4 of 2025, LiveWire consolidated revenue increased by 9% and driven by a 61% increase in electric motorcycle units and a 7% increase in static units. Consolidated operating loss decreased by 30%.

    綜合經營虧損減少了 32%,導致本年度淨現金使用量減少了 45%(不包括從 HD 定期貸款中獲得的 7,500 萬美元收益)。2025 年第四季度,LiveWire 合併收入成長了 9%,這主要得益於電動摩托車銷量成長了 61%,以及固定式設備銷量成長了 7%。綜合營業虧損減少了30%。

  • For 2026, LiveWire's focus is on the launch of its S4 Honcho products with production targeted to begin in the spring of 2026, continued network expansion, cost savings and improvement and product innovation and development focused on profitable products.

    2026 年,LiveWire 的重點是推出 S4 Honcho 產品,目標是在 2026 年春季開始生產,同時繼續擴大網絡,節省成本並進行改進,以及專注於盈利產品的產品創新和開發。

  • Now turning to Slide 14. Wrapping up with consolidated Harley-Davidson Inc. financial results, we delivered $569 million of operating cash flow in full year 2025, which was down from $1.6 billion in full year 2020.

    現在請看第14張投影片。最後,我們來看看哈雷戴維森公司合併後的財務表現。 2025 年全年,我們的營運現金流為 5.69 億美元,低於 2020 年全年的 16 億美元。

  • The decrease in operating cash flow was driven by lower motorcycle shipment volumes and unfavourable manufacturing and tariff costs as well as originations of retail finance receivables classified as held for sale, which are classified as operating cash outflows.

    經營現金流的減少是由於摩托車出貨量下降、製造成本和關稅成本不利,以及新增零售金融應收款(歸類為持有待售)所致,這些應收款被歸類為經營現金流出。

  • There were no originations of retail finance receivables held for sale in 2024 for the net outflows related to this activity contributed to the decrease in operating cash flows. Total cash and cash equivalents ended at $3.1 billion, which was $1.5 billion higher than a year ago.

    2024 年沒有新增零售金融應收帳款,與此相關的淨流出導致營運現金流量減少。現金及現金等價物總額為 31 億美元,比一年前增加了 15 億美元。

  • The HDFS transaction facilitated a dividend of $1 billion from HDFS to HDI in Q4, which together with a further dividend expected to be paid in Q1 results in a total dividend that will be consistent with our original expectations. In addition, HDFS debt will be further reduced by the maturity of a $700 million medium-term note in Q2.

    HDFS 交易促成了 HD​​FS 在第四季度向 HDI 支付 10 億美元的股息,加上預計在第一季支付的額外股息,總股息將與我們最初的預期一致。此外,HDFS 的債務將在第二季因一筆 7 億美元的中期票據到期而進一步減少。

  • As part of our capital strategy, in Q4, we entered into an accelerated share repurchase agreement with Goldman Sachs to repurchase $200 million of shares of the company's common stock. We entered into the $200 million ASR and $160 million was delivered to 12/31 and with the remainder in early 2026.

    作為我們資本策略的一部分,在第四季度,我們與高盛達成了一項加速股票回購協議,回購公司價值 2 億美元的普通股。我們簽訂了 2 億美元的 ASR 協議,到 12 月 31 日已交付 1.6 億美元,剩餘部分將於 2026 年初交付。

  • For the full year 2025, we repurchased a total value of $347 million or 13.1 million shares in total which represents around 11% of December 31, 2024, shares outstanding. This amount includes the aforementioned ASR agreement.

    2025 年全年,我們共回購了價值 3.47 億美元或 1,310 萬股的股票,約佔 2024 年 12 月 31 日流通股的 11%。該金額包含上述ASR協議款項。

  • Now turning to Slide 16. While 2025 was a more volatile and challenging year than we had anticipated, we looked to 2026 where we start the year at more appropriate dealer inventory levels and look to reset the business. toward a more stable operating and financial future.

    現在請看第16張投影片。儘管2025年比我們預期的更加動盪和充滿挑戰,但我們展望2026年,希望在新的一年伊始,經銷商的庫存水平能夠更加合理,並著手調整業務,朝著更加穩定的運營和財務未來邁進。

  • As we look to our financial outlook for 2026, we remain pleased with our leading market share position in the US new model year two motorcycle launch, including the all-new redesigned trige models as well as the long-haul touring and the introduction of our affordable lineup of motorcycles with a focus on critical price point motorcycles to help stoke demand.

    展望 2026 年的財務前景,我們對在美國新車型第二年推出的摩托車市場中領先的市場份額感到滿意,其中包括全新重新設計的三輪摩托車、長途旅行摩托車以及我們推出的經濟實惠的摩托車系列,重點是關鍵價格點的摩托車,以幫助刺激需求。

  • At HDFC, we expect retail units of 130,000 to 135,000. We expect wholesale units of $130,000 to 135,000. As you can see, we believe that global dealer inventory levels are at appropriate total levels with some need to balance by model and family.

    HDFC 預計零售單位數量為 13 萬至 13.5 萬個。我們預計批發銷售量為每台 13 萬至 13.5 萬美元。如您所見,我們認為全球經銷商庫存水準總體上處於適當水平,但仍需按車型和系列進行一些平衡。

  • Therefore, we expect retail and wholesale have a largely one-to-one relationship in 2026. At the same time, we expect production units at HDFC to be lower than wholesale units shipped in 2026 as we work to prudently manage overall company inventory levels.

    因此,我們預計到 2026 年,零售和批發將基本呈一對一關係。同時,由於我們努力謹慎管理公司整體庫存水平,預計 2026 年 HDFC 的產量將低於批發出貨量。

  • For 2026, we expect this will have a deleverage impact, which will pressure operating leverage when it comes to operating margins. In addition, we expect to face a greater overall cost for incremental tariffs in 2026, which are likely to be applied more uniformly over the entire calendar year, whereas 2025 experienced partial applications during the year and was backloaded.

    我們預計,到 2026 年,這將產生去槓桿化影響,進而對營業利潤率造成經營槓桿壓力。此外,我們預計 2026 年將面臨更大的增量關稅總成本,這些關稅可能會在整個日曆年內更均勻地實施,而 2025 年則採取了分階段實施的方式,並且實施時間較晚。

  • As a reminder, in full year 2025, we incurred a cost of $67 million in new or increased tariffs. And in 2026, we forecast the cost of between $75 million to $105 million of new or increased tariffs based on current tariff levels and versus the 2024 base line. At HDMC, we expect operating income of positive $10 million to a loss of $40 million.

    提醒一下,2025 年全年,我們因新增或增加的關稅而產生了 6,700 萬美元的成本。我們預測,根據目前的關稅水平,與 2024 年的基準線相比,2026 年新增或增加的關稅將造成 7,500 萬美元至 1.05 億美元的損失。HDMC預計營業收入為正1,000萬美元,虧損為4,000萬美元。

  • At HDFS, we expect operating income of $45 million to $60 million. The forecast is based on the new business model at HDFS, given the HDFS transaction, where Harley-Davidson Financial Services now employs a capital-light derisked business model and has significantly changed financial earnings profile relative to before the transaction was done, particularly in the near term.

    HDFS預計營業收入為4,500萬美元至6,000萬美元。該預測基於 HDFS 的新商業模式,鑑於 HDFS 的交易,哈雷戴維森金融服務公司現在採用輕資本、低風險的商業模式,並且與交易完成之前相比,財務盈利狀況發生了顯著變化,尤其是在短期內。

  • Additionally, both retail and wholesale asset levels are lower than we previously believed and nonservicing fee income is also being viewed more cautiously. At LiveWire, LiveWire is forecasting an operating loss in the range of $70 million to $80 million. These guidance elements exclude impacts from our updated strategic plan, which we are looking forward to announcing in May along with Q1 earnings.

    此外,零售和批發資產水平均低於我們先前的預期,非服務費收入也受到更謹慎的看待。LiveWire 預測其營運虧損將在 7,000 萬美元至 8,000 萬美元之間。這些指導性要素不包括我們更新後的策略計畫的影響,我們期待在 5 月與第一季財報一起公佈該計畫。

  • And with that, we'll open it up to Q&A.

    接下來,我們將進入問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Craig Kennison, Baird.

    克雷格·肯尼森,貝爾德。

  • Craig Kennison - Analyst

    Craig Kennison - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking my question on HDFS. Just based on the message that came out of the HDFS transaction last year, I think the expectation was that HDFS operating income could be maybe half of what it used to be. So at least $100 million, granted, that was just an expectation that came out of the presentation materials, but you're looking to be about half of that. Maybe help us unpack what's going on with the math behind HDFS? And what the long-term profitability of that business should look like?

    嘿,早安。感謝您解答我關於HDFS的問題。僅根據去年 HDFS 交易釋放出的信息來看,我認為當時的預期是 HDFS 的營業收入可能只有以前的一半。所以至少1億美元,當然,這只是演示材料中給出的預期,但你們的目標金額大概是這個數字的一半。或許可以幫我們解讀HDFS背後的數學原理?那麼,該企業的長期獲利能力該如何呢?

  • Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you for your question, Jay. So obviously, from an HDFS standpoint, as we take a look at what we're guiding to, as you say, for 2026, we have a guide for the HDFS business. to come in between $45 million and $60 million as we flow forward and look to kind of a standard run rate for this business, which will probably take a 2.5, 3 years to get to that point.

    謝謝你的提問,傑伊。顯然,從HDFS的角度來看,正如您所說,展望2026年,我們對HDFS業務的指導目標是達到4500萬美元至6000萬美元,並期待這項業務能夠保持一定的標準運行速度,這可能需要2.5到3年的時間才能實現。

  • We would view kind of at the midpoint that HDFS would be on a standardized basis, making approximately triple the midpoint. So that's where we think the business goes long term as we think about some of the short-term related impacts and where is there a difference versus monthly invest we obviously have a cautious outlook relative to what we're looking at from an overall volume standpoint.

    我們認為 HDFS 應該處於標準化的中間狀態,大約是中間狀態的三倍。所以,我們認為,從長遠來看,這項業務的發展方向是這樣的,同時我們也考慮了一些短期相關的影響,以及與每月投資相比有哪些不同之處。顯然,相對於我們從整體交易量角度所看到的,我們持謹慎態度。

  • And so we're being careful and considered there. And then in addition, with what you saw with our Q4 year-end results, with dealer inventory down significantly and more than what we envisioned. Obviously, we have lower wholesale assets too, so that pressures earning the power of base. So hopefully, that explains what you're looking for and provide the perspective.

    所以,我們在這方面非常謹慎周全。此外,正如您從我們第四季年終業績中所看到的,經銷商庫存大幅下降,甚至超過了我們的預期。顯然,我們的批發資產也較低,因此這給基礎獲利能力帶來了壓力。希望這能解釋清楚你想要尋找的內容,並提供一些參考。

  • Craig Kennison - Analyst

    Craig Kennison - Analyst

  • Don't you need more retail and more wholesale stock units in order to triple that income? Or are there other adjustments?

    難道不需要增加零售和批發庫存量才能使收入翻三倍嗎?或是有其他調整方法嗎?

  • Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

    Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

  • Yes. No, it's time for those time for the retail assets to kind of flow their way in. So obviously, we need multiple years of building -- kind of rebuilding the balance sheet in order to drive what we need from an income statement standpoint. And that is. And then as we talk wholesale levels are lower than what we envisioned with already focused on how we really maintain tight and disciplined inventory with our dealers.

    是的。不,現在是時候讓零售資產慢慢流入市場了。顯然,我們需要多年的建設——某種程度上來說,需要重建資產負債表,才能從損益表的角度推動我們所需的發展。就是這樣。然後,當我們談到批發水準低於我們預期時,我們已經專注於如何與經銷商保持嚴格和自律的庫存管理。

  • Craig Kennison - Analyst

    Craig Kennison - Analyst

  • That makes sense. Thank you.

    這很有道理。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Noah Zatzkin, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    Noah Zatzkin,KeyBanc Capital Markets。

  • Noah Zatzkin - Analyst

    Noah Zatzkin - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my question. I guess just on kind of the wholesale guidance, you kind of talked about a one-for-one dynamic. Obviously, the implication is shipment growth in 2016. So I guess, in terms of cadence, how should we think about that building through the year? And then on inventory levels, like I guess is the implication that you're kind of more comfortable now with where you're sitting at the end of the year?

    您好,感謝您回答我的問題。我想,就批發指導而言,您談到了一對一的動態。顯然,這意味著 2016 年出貨量將會成長。所以我想,從節奏上來說,我們該如何看待這一年建築的建造呢?那麼關於庫存水平,我的理解是,您現在對年底的庫存狀況比較有信心了嗎?

  • Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

    Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

  • Sure. So why don't I start a little bit with Cadence and then maybe we'll have Artee talk through total inventory levels and provide a little bit of commentary around that. So from a cadence standpoint, as we think about wholesale shipments and the way that will look on a year-over-year basis, again, we're being what I would define as careful and considered in what we're sending into the dealer network.

    當然。那麼,不如我先從 Cadence 開始簡單介紹一下,然後也許我們可以讓 Artee 談談整體庫存水平,並對此做一些評論。因此,從節奏的角度來看,當我們考慮批發發貨以及它逐年變化的情況時,我們再次強調,我們對發送到經銷商網路的貨物是謹慎和深思熟慮的。

  • So Q1 of 2026 will probably be down from a wholesale shipment perspective, down a little bit versus where we were in Q1 of prior year. We think that we'll end up kind of popping up a little bit higher in early Q2.

    因此,從批發出貨量來看,2026 年第一季可能會下降,比去年第一季略有下降。我們認為,在第二季初,我們的業績最終會略有上升。

  • So making sure that we have dealers who are well positioned for when the season is starting. So we're not asking them to carry that inventory in the January, February time frame, but we do want them to be appropriately positioned from an inventory standpoint.

    所以要確保我們有經銷商做好充分準備,迎接賽季的到來。所以我們並不是要求他們在 1 月、2 月期間持有那麼多庫存,但我們確實希望他們在庫存方面做好適當的準備。

  • So Q2 wholesale shipments will be a little bit higher than prior year. Then as we take a look at how we walk into Q3, again, probably just a little bit lower as we work through some timing elements within the portfolio and some things that occur from that standpoint.

    因此,第二季批發出貨量將比去年同期略高。然後,當我們展望第三季時,可能會略微下降一些,因為我們需要處理投資組合中的一些時間因素以及從這個角度發生的一些事情。

  • And then as we end up ending Q4, obviously, we were pretty measured in what we shipped into the dealer network in Q4 of 25. So there's room for a pretty pretty material change in what we're sending in, in Q4 of 2026. So certainly, as you kind of take all of those different factors, a little bit more backward internship cadence in the second half of the year versus the first half? And even with that sort of a little bit more towards Q4. And then Artee, you can.

    然後,隨著第四季度結束,很明顯,我們在第四季度向經銷商網路發貨的數量為 25 件,相當謹慎。因此,到 2026 年第四季度,我們提交的內容還有相當大的實質變化空間。所以,綜合考慮所有這些因素,下半年的實習節奏確實比上半年慢一些?即使到了第四季度,情況也略有不同。然後,Artee,你可以。

  • Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. No, just broadly on inventory, the focus is on supporting our dealers and selling through the touring inventory. We remain pleased with the progress there. There's still support there and will continue to be. And we're also pleased with the 26 model year launch, a lot of enthusiasm in the market.

    是的。不,就庫存而言,重點是支持我們的經銷商並透過巡迴庫存進行銷售。我們對那裡的進展仍然感到滿意。那裡仍然有支持,而且這種支持還會繼續下去。我們也對第 26 款車型的發布感到滿意,市場反應熱烈。

  • So we'll be monitoring that closely. But in my script and in these comments, I just want to be abundantly clear we're hyper focused on healthy inventory levels and the focus is on the model year 25 touring right now.

    所以我們會密切關注此事。但在我的稿件和這些評論中,我只想非常明確地表明,我們高度重視健康的庫存水平,目前的重點是 25 款車型的巡迴展示。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robin Farley, UBS.

    羅賓法利,瑞銀集團。

  • Robin Farley - Analyst

    Robin Farley - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. I wanted to ask a little bit your expectations for retail to be flat globally. Just wondering what that counts on for US retail. And then also just kind of what's behind the expectation of flat just how you're thinking that -- how you're coming to that expectation?

    偉大的。謝謝。我想問一下您對全球零售業趨於平穩的預期。想知道這對美國零售業意味著什麼。還有,你對「平坦」的期望背後究竟是什麼?你是如何得出這種期望的?

  • And then if I could just also by the way, just squeeze in a quick clarifying point on LiveWire. I think previously, the expectation had been that you were limiting the kind of losses you would underwrite. And is it fair to say based on the guidance you're giving for '26 that you are willing to continue to invest or see live, why or maybe lose more than kind of the commentary last year?

    順便提一下,我還想快速澄清一下關於 LiveWire 的問題。我認為之前大家的預期是,你會限制你承保的損失類型。根據您對 2026 年的指導意見,是否可以說您願意繼續投資或觀望,或者可能會損失比去年評論中更多的金額?

  • Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Robin, it's Artee. Thank you for the question. I'll take the LiveWire one and then Jonathan will walk through the retail forecast. On LiveWire, we extended the $75 million loan, which is originally $100 million. So we worked through that with them.

    羅賓,我是阿蒂。謝謝你的提問。我先講解 LiveWire 的相關內容,然後 Jonathan 將介紹零售預測。在 LiveWire 上,我們延長了 7,500 萬美元的貸款,而最初的貸款額為 1 億美元。所以我們和他們一起解決了這個問題。

  • And they're actioning other sources of capital at this point in time. So in terms of funding the operating losses or so on. We've extended our commitment on the loan, and that's it. So Jonathan, you can walk through the retail piece.

    目前,他們正在尋求其他資金來源。所以,就如何彌補營運虧損等面向而言。我們已經延長了貸款承諾期限,僅此而已。所以喬納森,你可以參觀一下零售區了。

  • Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

    Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

  • Okay. Sounds good. Thanks. So on the -- I think you asked about US specifically from a retail standpoint. So as we flow through and take a look at it, we're obviously really, really excited about what's happening with the introduction of the new limited -- so as we take a look at where we are from an overall retail sales perspective, we do envision that we have a little bit of upside in terms of 26% versus 25% in from a steering standpoint for a couple of reasons. You heard Art talk about our focus on 25 model year sell-down and how that was focused around doing.

    好的。聽起來不錯。謝謝。所以,關於──我想你問的是美國零售業的情況。所以,當我們仔細審視這一切時,我們顯然對新限量版的推出感到非常興奮——從整體零售銷售的角度來看,我們預計,由於以下幾個原因,我們在指導方面還有 26% 的增長空間,而之前的預期是 25%。你聽過 Art 談到我們專注於 25 年車型銷售週期,以及我們是如何圍繞這一點展開的。

  • So at retail, that actually really helps us in terms of moving through the 25 touring bikes and what we have back on top of that is the new limited and the new limited that hit, and we're really excited about those and the initial reception to that.

    所以在零售方面,這實際上確實幫助我們銷售了 25 輛旅行自行車,除此之外,我們還有新款限量版和新款限量版上市,我們對這些以及它們的初步反響感到非常興奮。

  • So a lot of enthusiasm from our dealer network around sold orders and what they're seeing on that front. As we move along on the retail side, we also have the introduction of the new rice Again, as we look at dealer enthusiasm and customer feedback around what those look like, we're really proud of what our engineering team has done from a suspension perspective.

    因此,我們的經銷商網路對已售出訂單以及他們在這方面看到的情況都表現出了極大的熱情。隨著零售業務的推進,我們也推出了新的米。同樣,從經銷商的熱情和客戶對這些產品的回饋來看,我們為我們的工程團隊在懸吊方面所做的工作感到非常自豪。

  • So if he thinks through handling in the way of that motorcycle or for some real positives, I think, in terms of how customers will feel and enjoy that motorcycle. So a little bit of enthusiasm in terms of where we sit from a price perspective.

    所以,如果他能認真思考如何操控這輛摩托車,或從一些真正的正面考慮,我認為,這將有助於顧客更好地感受和享受這輛摩托車。所以,從價格角度來看,我們對目前的情況感到有些樂觀。

  • And then just a couple more pieces that I'll touch on quickly. As we take a look, we are being careful and considered in what CBO retail and CEO wholesale shipment ship in looks like.

    最後,我再簡單提一下另外幾點。在進行考察時,我們會仔細考慮 CBO 零售和 CEO 批發貨物的進貨情況。

  • We do want to make sure that those banks really are put up on a detail and we're being possible about what we're shipping in, which obviously will challenge retail a little bit within that particular family. And then overall, we have the full year of soft sales.

    我們確實希望確保這些銀行真正重視細節,並且我們能夠保證我們所運送的產品符合實際情況,這顯然會為該特定領域的零售業帶來一些挑戰。整體而言,我們全年的銷售業績都比較疲軟。

  • So really, really excited that we have dealers who are well positioned. We've kind of moved some price points in a way that are pretty customer friendly. And so overall, feeling good about where that is. So those are many of the puts and takes for 2026.

    我真的非常高興我們有佈局合理的經銷商。我們對某些產品的價格進行了調整,使其更符合消費者的需求。總的來說,我對現狀感到滿意。以上就是2026年的一些預測與展望。

  • Robin Farley - Analyst

    Robin Farley - Analyst

  • Great, thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tristan Thomas, BMO Capital Markets.

    Tristan Thomas,BMO資本市場。

  • Tristan Thomas - Analyst

    Tristan Thomas - Analyst

  • Can you give us $150 million of annual run rate savings in 2020 and beyond as you guys called out, is that spread among all three segments? And then also, is there any way to anything porous kind of the cadence of that next year, specifically would be very helpful as we build out the models?

    你們能否兌現先前承諾的2020年及以後每年節省1.5億美元的目標?這筆節省是分攤到所有三個業務板塊的嗎?此外,明年能否以某種方式稍微調整節奏,尤其是在我們建立模型的時候,這將非常有幫助?

  • Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Tristan, I'll take that. The $150 million would not incorporate anything at LiveWire that would just be the motor company and in HDFS. And in terms of cadence, we would expect to realize some of those savings beginning in the back half of this year. We've not incorporated any restructuring charge in the guidance. So that would complement that but we've been clear in saying we expect those savings to be realized on an annual basis starting in 2027.

    特里斯坦,我接受。這 1.5 億美元不會包括 LiveWire 的任何資產,只會包括這家汽車公司和 HDFS。就進度而言,我們預計從今年下半年開始就能實現部分節省。我們在業績指引中並未計入任何重組費用。所以這將起到補充作用,但我們已經明確表示,我們預計這些節省將從 2027 年開始逐年實現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • James Hardiman, Citi.

    詹姆斯‧哈迪曼,花旗集團。

  • James Hardiman - Equity Analyst

    James Hardiman - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. So any help you could give us sort of bridging what I think is about 4% to 8% wholesale growth, if I sort of use the wholesale guide to where you ultimately land in terms of operating income still being a modest loss on the CMC side. Obviously, there are some tariffs in there. It sounds like there's some deleverage as we think about sort of production versus wholesale?

    嘿,早安。所以,如果您能幫我們彌合我認為大約 4% 到 8% 的批發增長,我們將不勝感激。如果我以批發指導方針來衡量,最終的營業收入將如何實現,同時 CMC 方面仍將出現小幅虧損。顯然,其中包含一些關稅。聽起來,當我們思考生產與批發之間的關係時,似乎存在某種去槓桿化現象?

  • And I guess I'm also curious on the ASP side or the mix side. I think what I'm hearing is that even though inventories for the year will be flat touring will be down. So you're going to be under shipping touring. Just curious what impact that might have on ASP.

    我也對ASP方面或混合方面的情況感到好奇。我理解的意思是,儘管今年的庫存量將保持不變,但巡演將會減少。所以你將參加巡迴演出。只是好奇這會對平均售價(ASP)產生什麼影響。

  • Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Yes. Great question. Thank you. I hope you well. As we take a look at where we are, we certainly have a number of factors that come into play as we look at motor company operating income in '26 versus '25. So you're right. If you kind of look kind of where we land from a midpoint perspective, really, really close to flat. We have a number of factors that come into play. So we have a full year of tariff exposure.

    好的。是的。問得好。謝謝。希望你一切都好。當我們檢視自己所處的位置時,在比較 2026 年和 2025 年的汽車公司營業收入時,肯定會有許多因素在運作。你說得對。如果你從中間點的角度來看我們最終落腳的地方,你會發現它非常非常接近平坦。有很多因素會影響結果。因此,我們面臨一整年的關稅風險。

  • So that adds about a $25 million headwind year-over-year. Again, going back to the tariff update page that we included within the deck, you can see some of the details there.

    這樣一來,年比就會增加約 2500 萬美元的不利因素。再回到我們簡報中包含的關稅更新頁面,您可以在那裡看到一些詳細資訊。

  • Obviously, as we complete our final year of getting discipline back into the operating environment in terms of balancing out wholesale and production that poses a little bit of a deleverage challenge. And then we certainly have some associated supply chain impacts that we're contemplating.

    顯然,在我們完成最後一年恢復營運環境紀律,以平衡批發和生產的過程中,這帶來了一些去槓桿化的挑戰。當然,我們也正在考慮一些相關的供應鏈影響。

  • As you talked about, we do have a broadly one-to-one relationship between retail and wholesale which does happen an offsetting positive.

    正如您所說,零售和批發之間確實存在大致一對一的關係,這確實起到了一種抵消作用。

  • And then as we look, there are some non-motorcycle implications around P&A and AML. So all in, as we look at where we are, if you do a midpoint comparison just effectively sitting right on top and obviously, an improved setup for out-year performance as we work through our final issues in '26.

    然後,當我們審視時,會發現 P&A 和 AML 還涉及一些與摩托車無關的問題。綜上所述,當我們審視自身所處的位置時,如果進行中期比較,就會發現我們實際上正處於領先地位,而且顯然,隨著我們在 2026 年解決最後的問題,未來一年的表現也會有所改善。

  • James Hardiman - Equity Analyst

    James Hardiman - Equity Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandon Rolle, Loop Capital.

    Brandon Rolle,Loop Capital。

  • Brandon Rolle - Analyst

    Brandon Rolle - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I just had a question around the used versus new pricing spread. How do you feel about where that spread is right now?

    早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想問一下二手貨和新貨的價格差問題。你覺得目前價差如何?

  • And obviously, with all this promotional activity, do you see that spread tightening as you kind of pull away the promotional activity? Or is this something that the spread is going to keep expanding as maybe prices go higher, and it seems like people are digging in lower and lower into the used values for a deal? Just any comments there on the spread.

    顯然,隨著促銷活動的減少,您是否看到價差收窄了?或者說,隨著價格上漲,價差會繼續擴大,人們似乎為了達成交易而不斷壓低二手車的價格?關於目前的價差,大家有什麼看法嗎?

  • Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

    Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

  • Okay. Thanks, Brandon. I'll start with a couple of numbers, and then maybe Artee can provide some perspective in addition. So I think from a couple of different factors that you speak about. So as we think about where we're sitting today from a Q1 standpoint, we were forthcoming in terms of the charge that we took in Q4 of '25 in order to make sure that we were position to clear through touring in the way that Artee has talked about.

    好的。謝謝你,布蘭登。我先給出幾個數字,然後也許 Artee 可以提供一些補充資訊。所以我認為,從你提到的幾個不同因素來看,情況就是這樣。所以,從第一季的角度來看,我們今天所處的位置,我們坦誠地談到了我們在 2025 年第四季度採取的措施,以確保我們能夠按照 Artee 所說的方式順利完成巡演。

  • So relative to the factor on the new side, as we think about affordability, monthly payments and investor consumers, we recognize that we're doing -- we're putting some programs in market at the moment that are helping drive a reduction in the gap between new and used motorcycles. So we have some stimulus that we think is helping drive a really nice value equation for our customers.

    因此,相對於新車方面的因素,當我們考慮可負擔性、月供和投資者消費者時,我們意識到我們正在——我們目前正在推出一些項目,以幫助縮小新摩托車和二手摩托車之間的差距。因此,我們有一些刺激措施,我們認為這些措施有助於為我們的客戶創造非常好的價值。

  • I think what's really exciting is that in addition to that, as we take a look at what we're seeing on used values we have seen sort of stabilization to some nice improvement in used values and what we're seeing come through at both auction and retail on the used side. So I think that that dynamic is also helping us from an overall consumer standpoint. So a couple of nice factors to bring that together.

    我認為真正令人興奮的是,除此之外,當我們觀察二手商品的價值時,我們發現二手商品的價值已經趨於穩定,並且出現了一些不錯的增長,無論是在二手商品的拍賣市場還是零售市場,我們都看到了這種增長。所以我認為,從整體消費者的角度來看,這種動態也對我們有幫助。所以,有幾個不錯的因素促成了這件事。

  • Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And I think one of the insights we're seeing is that some of the parts of our portfolio that we've walked away from in recent years, the used values have jumped. So it's informing some of our product development work, so it's encouraging to see core equities that we've been known for a long time, really responding quite well in the used market, and it's informing some of the innovation that you're going to be seeing from us.

    是的。我認為我們看到的一個現像是,近年來我們放棄的一些投資組合,其二手價值已經大幅上漲。因此,它為我們的一些產品開發工作提供了信息,令人鼓舞的是,我們長期以來為人熟知的核心股票在二手市場表現非常出色,它也為你們將看到的我們的一些創新提供了信息。

  • Brandon Rolle - Analyst

    Brandon Rolle - Analyst

  • Great, thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jaime M. Katz, Morningstar.

    Jaime M. Katz,晨星公司。

  • Jaime M. Katz - Analyst

    Jaime M. Katz - Analyst

  • Sorry. I'm hoping that you guys can talk about maybe what you envision as the potential for the motor company operating margin beyond '26. Like do we go back to a high single-digit rate. Do you guys see more opportunity to expand margin if maybe we can get some volume improvement to take hold and just sort of what you see as the potential for that segment over time?

    對不起。我希望你們能談談你們對2026年以後汽車公司營業利益潛力的想像。我們是否會回到個位數的高利率水準?你們認為,如果銷售量能夠提升,利潤率是否有更大的成長空間?你們覺得這個細分市場隨著時間的推移會有怎樣的發展潛力?

  • Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

    Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

  • Yes, Jamie, that's a great question, and it's something we're going to clearly call out in our May investor meeting and strategy discussion and earnings. So if you tune in that, I'll give you more detail. Obviously, we're -- we don't think the current results reflect the full potential of the company. So a lot of upside and Look forward to updating you in May.

    是的,傑米,這是一個很好的問題,我們將在五月的投資者會議、策略討論和收益報告中明確提出這個問題。所以,如果你收聽節目,我會提供更多細節。顯然,我們認為目前的業績並沒有反映出公司的全部潛力。所以有很多利多因素,期待五月向大家報告最新情況。

  • Jaime M. Katz - Analyst

    Jaime M. Katz - Analyst

  • Okay. And then do you have a target for leverage metrics at the end of 2026, given that you're still paying down some of it?

    好的。那麼,考慮到你們仍在償還部分債務,你們對 2026 年底的槓桿指標是否有目標?

  • Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

    Jonathan Root - Chief Financial Officer, Chief Commercial Officer of Harley-Davidson Motor Company

  • Yes. I think everything from an overall capital allocation perspective, as Artee talked about in our Q1 earnings call that we do in May, we'll make sure that we walk through strategy. overall capital allocation, our approach to the way that we're running the business on leverage for HDMC as well as HDFS and then what we look at on a go-forward basis, we will be sure that we cover all of that.

    是的。我認為從整體資本配置的角度來看,正如Artee在5月份的第一季財報電話會議上所談到的,我們將確保詳細闡述策略、整體資本配置、我們營運HDMC和HDFS業務的槓桿方式,以及我們展望未來的發展方向,我們將確保涵蓋所有這些方面。

  • Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

    Arthur Starrs - President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sorry. The one thing I'd just remind is the EUR700 million note that we're going to be paying off. That's the one thing that we've called out.

    對不起。我只想提醒大家,我們還有7億歐元的債務要償還。這是我們特別指出的一點。

  • Jaime M. Katz - Analyst

    Jaime M. Katz - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

    目前沒有其他問題了。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。