HNI Corp (HNI) 2011 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

Welcome to the HNI Corporation first-quarter results conference call.

At this time, all participant lines are in a listen-only mode, and later there will be an opportunity for your questions (Operator Instructions).

As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to the Vice President of Corporate Finance, Derek Schmidt.

Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for the HNI Corporation conference call to discuss first-quarter 2011 results, which were announced yesterday after the market closed.

My name is Derek Schmidt, Treasurer and Vice President of Corporate Finance for HNI Corporation.

If you have not received a copy of the financial news release, please call 563-272-7927 and we will send it to you.

The release is also available at our website, www.hnicorp.com.

A presentation intended to accompany this call has been posted to our website.

The presentation contains details of our financial performance, including the non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliations.

It can be found by accessing the webcast link under the Investor Information section of our website.

We encourage you to review this presentation.

Joining me on the line today from HNI Corporation are Kurt Tjaden, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and Stan Askren, Chairman, President and CEO.

Stan and Kurt will review the results and then open the call for questions.

Before we begin, please be advised that statements made by the Corporation during this call that are not strictly historical facts are forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks.

Actual results could differ materially from expected results.

Additional information concerning factors that could affect actual results can be found in the conference call presentation posted to the HNI Corporation website.

The Corporation assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during the call.

I now have the pleasure of turning the call over to Stan Askren.

Stan?

Thank you, Derek.

Good morning, everyone.

As is usual, we will share our assessment of the first quarter of 2011 and then provide some thoughts on our outlook for second quarter, and then we'll open the call up for questions.

Kurt Tjaden, our CFO, will be joining me back and forth on these comments.

So, we are pleased with our year-over-year performance improvement this quarter.

We experienced strong growth across all of our businesses.

Strength in our office furniture contracted international businesses, driven by large projects, continued at a substantial pace with 16% topline growth.

Our supplies-driven channel in office furniture grew 5% over prior year as small business confidence gradually improved.

Our Hearth business exceeded expectations.

Remodeled retrofit sales increased 16% as our alternative fuel products were positively impacted by higher oil prices.

The new construction channel was down 14% due to the negative housing market and the prior-year benefit of the Homebuyer tax credit.

Overall, the profitability improved from the prior year in both our office furniture and Hearth segments.

I'll turn the call over to Kurt to review the specific financial data for the first quarter.

Thank you, Stan.

For the first quarter of 2011, consolidated net sales increased 9% to $396 million, while sales for the office furniture segment increased 10.4% to $331 million.

Net sales for our Hearth product segment increased 2.4% to $65 million, and consolidated gross margins, including restructuring and transition charges, improved to 34% compared to 32.8% in the prior-year quarter.

Total selling and administrative expenses as a percent of sales, including restructuring charges, improved 0.5 percentage points.

The first quarter 2011 included $1.4 million of restructuring costs.

These included $1 million associated with the shutdown and consolidation of office furniture facilities and $400,000 related to the restructuring of our Hearth operations.

We ended the first quarter with $52 million in cash, and we used $22 million of cash in the quarter compared to $25 million in the prior-year quarter.

I will remind you, the first quarter has historically been our lowest quarter for operating cash flow due to the seasonal business patterns and funding requirements of our business.

So as we look forward, we entered the second quarter with solid momentum across our businesses.

We anticipate double-digit growth to continue in our contract business.

Our contract brands are performing well and represent outstanding value propositions for our customers.

We continue to see significant opportunities in our international business, particularly in China.

Our strategy to invest in new products and expand our sales presence is driving our success in the region.

Our supplies-driven business is strong and steadily improving.

We are investing in new products, selling capabilities, e-business and resources to strengthen our channel partners.

Our Hearth business will continue to be challenged by new construction weakness.

We do expect the remodel/retrofit category to continue to perform well.

We are on track to grow sales and increase profits in 2011.

We expect pressure on second-quarter margins caused by material inflation, strategic investments and a higher mix of large project and big business.

We are adjusting pricing in response to material inflation.

Strategic investments are tracking well.

I feel good about our new products and our selling initiatives.

Discounting remains competitive on large projects.

Margin pressure is expected to lessen in the back half of the year as mix of business returns to historical norms.

I am optimistic about the economy and the prospects for our growth initiatives.

Our split-and-focus model with leverage drives the broadest and deepest coverage across the industry.

We are uniquely positioned to benefit from these multiple growth platforms.

Kurt, why don't you go ahead and provide the financial outlook for the second quarter?

Thanks.

So, for the second quarter 2011, we anticipate overall sales to be up 8% to 11%.

Office furniture sales are expected to be up 10% to 13%, with growth in both channels.

Sales in the supplies-driven channel are expected to increase 7% to 9%, while sales in the rest of our office furniture businesses are expected to increase 14% to 17%.

Hearth sales are expected to be flat to down 4%, driven by a decline in the new construction channel due to the comparative impact of the Homebuyer tax credit experienced in 2010.

Excluding restructuring and transition charges, gross profit margin is expected to decrease approximately 0.8 to 1.2 percentage points versus the second quarter 2010, when it was 35.8%.

This decrease is driven mainly by increased material costs and, as Stan said, a higher mix of large project and big business.

Second-quarter 2010 included $1.1 million of restructuring and transition costs.

Excluding restructuring and transition charges, SG&A as a percentage of sales is expected to increase 0.3 to 0.6 percentage points versus the second-quarter 2010, when it was 32.2%.

We do anticipate SG&A-related restructuring and transition costs to be approximately $500,000 in the second quarter.

These charges relate to the shutdown of previously announced facilities.

Net interest expense is projected to be $3 million, and the effective tax rate is projected to be approximately 36% for the second quarter.

Capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $30 million to $35 million, primarily focused on new products.

And we project depreciation and amortization will be $46 million to $48 million for the year.

So that summarizes our outlook for the second-quarter 2011.

I will now turn the call back to Stan for closing comments.

Thank you, Kurt.

So let me finish up here.

As I address you today, I am more optimistic about our markets, the improving economy and the prospects for our business.

We remain on track to increase sales and profits in the year 2011.

I am confident our investments in selling, marketing and product initiatives will continue to [derive] growth.

We see sales momentum continuing in our office furniture business and the Hearth remodel/retrofit channel.

We continue to be focused on improving operations, reducing costs and generating cash.

Our business is strong and well positioned for future growth.

So with those comments complete, we will now open it up to questions.

(Operator Instructions).

Mark Rupe, Longbow Research.

Good morning, this is Leah Villalobos in for Mark this morning.

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about -- more about your margin outlook for the second quarter.

Maybe quantify some of the assumptions that went into that outlook in terms of raw material costs and mix?

And maybe some more detail about how to think about the rest of the year.

Sure, Leah.

So material costs are one of the key things.

And we see that continuing.

We had about $4 million of inflation in the first quarter year on year, and would expect to see kind of a $5 million inflation in the second quarter.

That is one of those key components.

The second area you'd asked about was discounting.

And expect to see, again, a similar number that we talked about for inflation.

So, somewhere in that $5 million range.

Again, as Stan said, as you think about that through the back half of the year, we -- as our mix of business would return to normal levels, we would see that flatten out.

Okay.

And that's all year-over-year, right?

That is year-over-year, correct.

In terms of quarter-over-quarter, what are you seeing?

In terms of material costs, we have seen material costs go up.

And as we look out, the year, see that kind of flattening.

Does that answer your question?

It does.

And in terms of the mix of business?

Mix of business -- fairly similar Q1 to Q2.

Again, as we -- as you look in those first-quarter results, certainly discounting or mix of that project and day-to-day business was an impact as we look at first-quarter results.

But again, as we look in the back half of the year, we would expect to see that return to more historical norms.

Okay, great.

Thank you.

And in terms of the supply side of your office furniture business, can you talk a little bit about how that trended through the quarter, and sort of a little bit more about what you're expecting for the second quarter?

Well, I think as it trended through the first quarter, we saw an increase -- about 5%.

And as we see it going forward, it's going to continue, we think, to increase -- I think our numbers that we gave you were 7% to 9% looking forward.

So we are seeing marginal, slight improvement with small business confidence, number one.

Number two, I think we are getting traction with some of our growth initiatives, some of our strategic investments, which is [bowing] that growth as well.

Okay.

It kind of looked like it was a lot stronger since it looks like it's a more difficult comparison in the second quarter.

Is that fair?

Or is it pretty stable kind of steady growth?

No, I think Stan characterized it right, Leah.

I think fourth quarter we were up 10%.

We had some buy ahead into the first quarter, up 4.85% in the second quarter.

And then 7% to 9% is the guidance for second.

So it has been steady, consistent improvement in that business quarter to quarter over the last six months and as we look out.

And Leah, as we look at that business, there is a significant seasonality to it that's driven by tax season; it's driven by education season; it's driven by government purchases, [bid up].

It's a pretty consistent look, if you look back historically at that.

And so that may be what you're looking at it if you look at sequential as a ramp up, again -- that is historic consistent with how that business flows.

Okay, great.

Thanks for taking my questions.

Budd Bugatch, Raymond James.

Here's my question.

I think when you were talking to the previous questioner, and you quantified the material and discounting costs expected for the second quarter, if my math is right, that is somewhere like 200 to 250 basis points on the gross margin in terms of the negatives.

And then you -- your guidance says 80 to 120 basis points, which would tell you, then, that you've got a recovery of probably 120 to 130 basis points.

Is that -- first of all, is that math correct?

And what can we expect with the forward look beyond the second quarter on all of those three items?

So, your math is correct, Budd, as you talk about mix and material costs.

And you would have offsets in the second quarter as we see the benefits of pricing, and increased volume as that offsets those two negatives.

I think as we look forward, as Stan said earlier and I think I noted in comments to Leah's question, certainly we are working pricing in the back half of the year to mitigate that material inflation, and would see that gap close as we go through the year.

So, Kurt, as you look forward, where do you think the dollar value of inflation -- when you do start to cycle through that?

I think it comes back -- as we near the end of the year, that gap gets completely closed; and, really, as we go into 2012, with the material inflation and pricing actions that we have in place today.

So does gross margin start to get better year-over-year as you get third quarter?

That would be a fair assumption.

Okay, terrific.

And looking beyond -- you've talked a little bit, Stan, about your growth initiatives.

And I think you were putting $5 million a quarter into that, if I remember right.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

Talk about where they are, what you're seeing, and what the results are.

I think you told us that you might start to see results in third and fourth quarter.

Yes.

So the number is more like $3 million, because we are starting to anniversary some of our increased investment.

And once we get towards the back half of the year, that begins to complete the anniversary.

So the investments, Budd, are in multiple areas.

And they range all the way from accelerated new product, selling resources to help our channel partners grow their business, e-business investment in multiple areas of geographic investment, in Asia, etcetera.

And we feel good about those investments.

We have a process that tracks each of those, with each of the companies.

None of them alone are huge investments, but we, as you know, with our split-and-focus business model, we serve multiple markets, multiple channels, and it really is working with the operating companies to give them additional ammunition to invest and grow their business where we think we can drive a good return for shareholders.

So we feel good about those.

We feel good about the investments.

We feel good about the process, and we are feeling good about the results.

And as I said to you, if you look, for instance, the supplies-driven channel, we are starting to see some improved growth despite, I think, some very challenging sort of core macroeconomic factors there around small business confidence.

Two more questions.

One, do you see more opportunity, then, for investment beyond what you've done and beyond what we are expecting?

Yes, I think what -- it's an ongoing dialogue for us.

And that's what we get paid to do, obviously, is invest shareholders' money where we think they can get a return.

And so it's kind of a rolling process where we look and say are we getting traction?

Are we doing what we thought we could do?

Are we getting a return?

If so, we will continue to invest.

If not, we will go work the plan, adjust and then come back.

So to answer question specifically, yes, I'm sure there are additional investment opportunities.

But I think we are consistent today with our guidance, which is, it's $3 million a quarter and begins to anniversary the rest of the year.

Okay.

And my final then, is, I did visit, as I think you know, the Lamex facility in China.

And had seen it a couple years earlier.

It's just significantly different and better than what I saw.

And I'd be just curious if you could give us any thoughts on what you're seeing over there in terms of that market and what the ultimate opportunity might be.

Yes, and we appreciate you taking the time, Budd, to stop by there and see that.

The performance there has been very strong.

We anticipate the performance going forward to continue to be strong.

Those emerging markets, China, as we look forward in the next 5 to 10 years, is a significant portion of our value creation strategy.

So I -- our objective is to continue to invest and smartly move in that part of the world where there is a big opportunity.

And as we look forward, we believe that will go from being a relatively small, important part of our business to a large, very important part of our business.

Our time and resources, I'm sure you probably heard, at my level, even, are invested heavily in making sure that happens.

What number is large?

Well, it's hard to tell based on the emerging markets.

But that international business ought to go from being 6%, 20% to 25% of our business, in the next 5 to 10 years.

Okay.

Thanks, Stan.

Peter Lisnic, Robert Baird.

This is Josh Chan filling in for Pete.

I was wondering, when you guys are talking about lower price realization in the office furniture business, do you actually mean that you had unfavorable mix?

Or that your average price was down?

Or do you mean that you are seeing lower pricing on a like-for-like product as well?

Josh, you've got to come back to think about this sort of -- size of projects is probably the best way to think about it.

So, any sort of normal time period, you have a few real large public bid sort of projects.

And then you have different size of projects.

And then you have day-to-day sort of transaction business.

What we are experiencing is, the day-to-day business is still rather muted, I guess, is the best way to say that.

The other side is, the large public bid projects, where it there is keen, keen competition, is a heavier mix of our business, just kind of having to do with the economic recovery and how we are positioned.

So it's really like for like on size of project, is what we're seeing.

Not seeing any big movement in pricing on apples to apples, but seeing sort of the basket is a different mix than normal.

Okay, great.

So it sounds it's more of a mix issue.

Then with respect to that contract business, are you at least seeing better pricing for projects that are in your backlog relative to those that are shipping now?

Ask that question again, Josh, because I'm not sure I understand what you asked.

I mean, I guess are the pricings that you are getting for contracts that you're bidding on right now better than those that you were bidding for, say, 9 to 12 months ago?

No, I don't think we are seeing any movement on pricing up, either, Josh.

It's a still a competitive environment.

I think we said in our comments, in fact, that discounting remains competitive.

And so, no, no significant change there.

Okay.

And then, looking in your guidance for SG&A, I mean, growing faster than sales in the second quarter, I mean, you talked about anniversarying those growth investments.

So as we go into the second half, could we expect that SG&A as a percent of sales ratio to come down versus the prior year?

I think, Josh, as you see volume come up in those -- exactly, as those strategic investments anniversary, you should expect to see SG&A as a percent of sales decline.

Okay, great.

Thank you for your time.

Matt McCall, BB&T.

Back to the growth initiatives.

So you anniversary -- I missed the $3 million number.

So you're anniversarying, so it's going to be now an incremental three just because you're anniversarying some spending you did last year.

Is that the way you described it?

Correct.

Second-quarter incremental, $3 million anniversary, all of it pretty much in the back half, Matt.

Got it, okay.

And then, so, remind us of the pricing actions you've taken.

What's the timing of some of -- I think you said, Kurt, that it would help kind of -- the price/costs would kind of -- would be in a better position in the back half.

But what was the timing of pricing in kind of all three of the subsegments of the business?

So, Matt, this is Stan here.

I will give you a general sense, and then I will let Kurt provide some of the specific details.

So as you recall, because we are a split-and-focus business, the different companies we'll put through price actions depending on their specific sort of where they play in the market, the competitive set, impact of inflation, competitive response, all that.

So you will see it kind of across the board.

We have some increases that are taking effective in May.

The supplies channel, really, because of the cycle around cataloging, etcetera, it will be effective in October.

So, Kurt, I don't know if you want to provide --

So recall, Matt, on the supplies side, HON Company had announced an increase effective January 1 that we will see full-year impact from.

And on the contract side, as Stan said, we've got some in May, and then other companies throughout the back half of the year.

The Hearth business, they've announced a price increase, effective June, of 3%.

So, it really starts now for what we did already with HON and then accelerating through the year as these various businesses put price increases through.

Okay, so HON, January 1.

And then there's another -- so is there an additional supply channel increase in October?

Yes, you would say that's correct.

Okay.

So they are -- we could probably be Q4 before we see price/cost at parity based on cost today?

Yes, that's what we said in the comments, Matt.

That's exactly right.

It's kind of typical, I think, to what you have seen with us in the past, when we run into these high inflation, is -- we are able to close that gap.

It does take us a few months to do that.

But we are able to get back to where we were.

Okay.

And then, Kurt, I think you provided the expected discounting impact in Q2.

What was the discounting impact in Q1?

Similar number.

I think the number I told Leah was about $4 million.

Okay, so I thought that was inflation.

So $4 million for discounting, too.

Okay.

And then on the government side, you talked -- Stan, you talked about some of the large public bid.

I think that was just the commercial or corporate projects in general.

What about the impact of the government?

Talk about the government as a percent of total, maybe last year, what you're seeing there and what your expectations are this year.

And then from a mix and margin perspective, what the impact has been.

Yes, so you got a bunch of questions there, Matt.

Let me see if I can pick these off; if you want to take me back, that's fine.

So what I was referring to when I say large public bids is government.

So our mix is heavier of large public government bids -- is another way of saying public, I guess.

The other is corporate, and then small day-to-day.

That mix is heavy on the large public bid contracts this period.

We think, as we said, going forward, that that's going to kind of rebalance back to more normal sort of balances.

Our progress in the government continues.

We have had, as you know, strong growth.

We would say that as we look year-to-date, we continue to have strong growth in both federal and state and local business.

And then I'm not sure, Matt, what else you have there.

Just what the expectation was for the percentage of the total that's going to come from government, either state and local or federal.

And then what the next impact -- the mix and margin impact would be relative to last year.

I don't have the mix for you going forward, Matt, but I would expect -- I think last year we ran something like 20%-plus.

And I would guess going forward it's going to be similar.

Okay.

And then one final question on the growth initiatives.

Have you talked about what these investments could mean to your top line in 2011 and 2012, whenever the industry -- some debate about what the industry growth is going to be this year, if the industry is up low to mid teens, what this could mean?

No, we don't -- as you know, Matt, we are not big on sort of calling the shot that far out.

A), it's very hard because there's so many different factors.

B), I just go back and say, we have a high level of confidence that the investments make sense.

We have a high level of confidence that we're on the right step and it is going to drive accelerated growth.

Beyond that, I would hesitate to give you a lot more.

Okay, that's fair.

Thank you, guys.

Todd Schwartzman, Sidoti & Company.

I just wanted to get some clarification first on the gross margin.

I just want to be clear.

Discounting as well as raw material inflation each represented a $4 million hit for the quarter?

Is that correct?

You're talking second quarter, correct, Todd?

Or first quarter?

First quarter.

Yes, first quarter -- so, material inflation was about $4 million.

The discount number I may have misquoted was, Matt -- was about $8 million in total, about $4 million than we expected--

--In first quarter.

In first quarter.

As we look going into the second quarter, we've got about $5 million of material inflation and expect discounting to fully be offset by price.

Got it.

And on the commentary regarding SG&A to sales, it gives -- seems typically the historical pattern is for the client -- correct me if I'm wrong -- in the back half of the year.

Is that correct?

Driven by volume.

Yes.

Okay.

So in terms of your incremental expenses that are occurring in the first half of the year, is there any way to strip out the normal seasonal effect?

Separate that from the puts and takes for this year?

We would hesitate to do that, Todd.

Okay.

And on the investments, I hope you could maybe shed some light maybe with some color on the comment about providing selling resources to help your partners grow their business.

Can you talk about that a little bit in more detail?

Well, as I said to Budd, I believe, it's kind of across-the-board.

And it's specific to each operating company.

So certainly as a distributed product to the market, it's critical that we help our channel partners reach the market and grow their profitability.

So it ranges across the board from all the way from sort of [A&D] sort of investment resources at the top end to really helping our wholesalers and our national supply dealers and our independent dealers reach the market.

So it is a very broad sort of menu of resource investments.

But you would normally provide that type of support under normal circumstances, don't you?

Sure, I mean that's how we go to market, Todd, is through distribution.

So it's really about finding additional ways that we can leverage our combined strength with the channel partner to find targets of opportunity for growth.

It's a continuous improvement sort of mindset around where do we go.

Keep in mind, the whole industry went through a major reset.

And it went down 35%, and everybody adjusted comps.

And the whole market went through a significant convulsion.

And so now as you come back out, you're looking for, what are the new ways that we can help those channel partners grow?

Is stepping up that type of spend at this point in time, is that also largely due to the volume of product launches coming up?

That is a significant portion of that, is the resources around launch and helping those channel partners get that product to market, and helping them it seeded with them.

And I know that the upcoming launch is pretty varied, pretty diverse.

I know I've asked this in the past, but can you give any additional highlight, any color, on something that you're particularly excited about for this NeoCon or beyond?

I'm excited about all of our new product launches, Todd.

And I think as you -- as we come out at NeoCon, you're going to see that all of the operating companies are investing, I think, aggressively investing smartly in new product launches that will hit the market here in the back half of the year.

Got you.

Thanks.

(Operator Instructions)

Okay.

Well, I want to thank you all for your interest and your attention to HNI, and we look forward to speaking with you in the future.

Have a good day.

(Operator Instructions).

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