Horace Mann Educators Corp (HMN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Horace Mann Educators Q2 2023 Investor Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's event is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Horace Mann Educators 2023 年第二季度投資者電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意今天的活動正在錄製中。

I'd now like to turn the conference over to Heather Wietzel, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Heather Wietzel。請繼續，女士。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Horace Mann's discussion of our second quarter results. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, investor supplement and investor presentation. Copies are available on the Investor page of our website. Marita Zuraitis, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bret Conklin, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will give today's formal remarks. With us for Q&A, we have Matt Sharpe, Mark Desrochers, Mike Weckenbrock, Ryan Greenier and Steve McAnena.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。歡迎來到霍勒斯·曼 (Horace Mann) 對我們第二季度業績的討論。昨天，我們發布了收益報告、投資者補充資料和投資者介紹。副本可在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到。瑪麗塔·祖萊蒂斯 (Marita Zuraitis)，總裁兼首席執行官；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Bret Conklin 將發表今天的正式講話。與我們一起進行問答的有 Matt Sharpe、Mark Desrochers、Mike Weckenbrock、Ryan Greenier 和 Steve McAnena。

Before turning it over to Marita, I want to note that our presentation today includes forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statements include risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance. The forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations, and we assume no obligation to update them. Actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors, which are described in our news release and SEC filings. In our prepared remarks, we use some non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures are available in our investor supplement.

在將其交給Marita 之前，我想指出，我們今天的演示文稿包含1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。該公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述都包含風險和不確定性，而不是保證未來的表現。前瞻性陳述基於管理層當前的預期，我們不承擔更新它們的義務。由於多種因素，實際結果可能會存在重大差異，這些因素在我們的新聞稿和 SEC 文件中進行了描述。在我們準備好的評論中，我們使用了一些非公認會計準則衡量標準。我們的投資者補充資料中提供了這些指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的調節表。

I'll now turn the call over to Marita.

我現在將電話轉給瑪麗塔。

Thanks, Heather, and hello, everyone. Last night, we reported second quarter core earnings of $0.03 per share, in line with our preannouncement. Despite the severe weather losses, Horace Mann continues to see the benefits of the earnings and revenue diversification efforts we've completed over the past 5 years. Both the supplemental and Group Benefits in the Life and Retirement segments provided solid core earnings contributions again this quarter.

謝謝希瑟，大家好。昨晚，我們報告第二季度核心收益為每股 0.03 美元，與我們的預告一致。儘管遭受了惡劣的天氣損失，霍勒斯·曼 (Horace Mann) 仍然看到了我們在過去 5 年中完成的盈利和收入多元化努力所帶來的好處。人壽和退休部門的補充福利和團體福利在本季度再次提供了堅實的核心收益貢獻。

Before we start, I want to welcome our new Chief Operating Officer, Steve McAnena, to the call. Steve joined us in May, bringing his more than 25 years of experience overseeing large personal lines, financial services and worksite businesses to Horace Mann. In his first months with us, he has already been an asset to the team as we look to build on our growing momentum in household acquisition and market share expansion.

在我們開始之前，我想歡迎我們的新任首席運營官 Steve McAnena 參加電話會議。 Steve 於 5 月加入我們，為 Horace Mann 帶來了他在監督大型個人業務、金融服務和工作場所業務方面超過 25 年的經驗。在加入我們的頭幾個月裡，他已經成為團隊的寶貴財富，因為我們希望在家庭收購和市場份額擴張方面繼續保持不斷增長的勢頭。

Back to the quarter. As Bret will discuss in more detail later in the call, we now expect full year core EPS of $1.20 to $1.45, primarily due to higher catastrophe losses. Our confidence in our long-term business strategy and the results Horace Mann can deliver remains unchanged. We continue to expect 2024 core ROE near 10%.

回到季度。正如布雷特稍後將在電話會議中更詳細討論的那樣，我們現在預計全年核心每股收益為 1.20 美元至 1.45 美元，這主要是由於災難損失增加。我們對長期業務戰略和霍勒斯·曼 (Horace Mann) 能夠實現的成果的信心保持不變。我們繼續預計 2024 年核心 ROE 將接近 10%。

We believe educators deserve a partner who is looking out for their financial wellness, one that will help them protect what they have today and prepare for a successful tomorrow. And we believe educators want a partner that has solutions tailored to educators' needs, delivered through knowledgeable distribution and built on customer-friendly infrastructure. Our multiline approach sets us apart not only for customers, but as a business as well. Our business diversification allows us more flexibility as a larger entity when challenges arise in one of the segments. Before I talk about the actions we are taking to address external factors facing the property and casualty industry, I would like to talk about how our multi-line approach is enabling us to serve more educator households with more products through more channels.

我們相信，教育工作者值得擁有一個關注其財務健康的合作夥伴，該合作夥伴將幫助他們保護今天所擁有的一切，並為成功的明天做好準備。我們相信，教育工作者希望合作夥伴能夠提供適合教育工作者需求的解決方案，通過知識豐富的分銷方式提供並建立在客戶友好的基礎設施之上。我們的多線方法不僅使我們在客戶方面脫穎而出，而且在企業方面也與眾不同。當其中一個細分市場出現挑戰時，我們的業務多元化使我們作為一個更大的實體擁有更大的靈活性。在談論我們為解決財產和傷亡行業面臨的外部因素而採取的行動之前，我想談談我們的多線方法如何使我們能夠通過更多渠道為更多教育家庭提供更多產品。

Our worksite division, which encompasses our employer-sponsored products as well as our worksite direct products, allows us to reach educators through their school district employers. We're expanding on the infrastructure that we gained with the NTA Life and Madison National acquisitions to support accelerated growth. including a unified product platform we introduced this year in our employer-sponsored lines alone, we offer coverage to more than 750,000 employees. The division continues to perform above our expectations. In the first half of the year, worksite direct product sales doubled while employer-sponsored product sales increased by 50%.

我們的工作場所部門包括雇主贊助的產品以及工作場所直接產品，使我們能夠通過學區雇主接觸到教育工作者。我們正在擴展通過收購 NTA Life 和 Madison National 獲得的基礎設施，以支持加速增長。僅包括我們今年在雇主資助的產品線中推出的統一產品平台，我們就為超過 750,000 名員工提供服務。該部門的表現繼續超出我們的預期。上半年，工地直接產品銷售額翻了一番，雇主贊助產品銷售額增長了50%。

We are actively introducing an enhanced group supplemental product line this fall, bringing to bear the strengths of both acquired businesses. The products are chosen by the employer and underwritten at the group level to provide employees options for purchase. Employers appreciate our long-standing reputation in the educator niche and educators value our solutions orientation. To accelerate the pace of growth in this segment, we are also investing in expanding our distribution reach, recruiting agents to support the Worksite Direct business and expanding our relationships with benefit brokers that brings solutions to employers. We're making strides in both fronts and continue to build brand recognition in this space.

今年秋天，我們將積極推出增強的集團補充產品線，以發揮兩家收購業務的優勢。這些產品由雇主選擇並在集團層面承保，為員工提供購買選擇。雇主欣賞我們在教育領域的長期聲譽，教育工作者也看重我們的解決方案導向。為了加快這一領域的增長步伐，我們還投資擴大我們的分銷範圍，招募代理商來支持 Worksite Direct 業務，並擴大我們與福利經紀人的關係，為雇主帶來解決方案。我們在這兩個方面都取得了長足的進步，並繼續在這個領域建立品牌知名度。

Turning to the retail side of the business. We're also seeing successful agent recruiting with new agents reaching key milestones at a pace we haven't seen since before the Pandemic. Sales growth in our Life and Retirement segment remains encouraging with net annuity contract deposits increasing 8% for the quarter and life sales up year-to-date. We continue to see a nice contribution to life sales from the Worksite direct agents, an early indicator of the cross-sell potential across divisions. The value of our diversification is clear. Horace Mann can remain profitable in 2023 despite the unprecedented pressure on the personal lines P&C industry.

轉向零售業務。我們還看到成功的代理商招募和新代理商以自大流行之前以來從未見過的速度達到了關鍵里程碑。我們的壽險和退休業務部門的銷售增長仍然令人鼓舞，本季度年金合同存款淨額增長了 8%，而年初至今的壽險銷售額也有所增長。我們繼續看到 Worksite 直接代理商對生活銷售做出了巨大貢獻，這是跨部門交叉銷售潛力的早期指標。我們多元化的價值是顯而易見的。儘管個人險種財產保險行業面臨前所未有的壓力，Horace Mann 仍可在 2023 年保持盈利。

Our Life and Retirement earnings continue to be solid, and we are benefiting from growing contributions from the worksite business. With that context, let me give you an update on the actions we're taking to address the challenging loss cost environment affecting the property and casualty industry.

我們的生活和退休收入繼續保持穩定，我們受益於工地業務不斷增長的貢獻。在此背景下，讓我向您介紹我們為解決影響財產和傷亡行業的挑戰性損失成本環境而採取的行動的最新情況。

In auto, the rate plan we have been implementing since the beginning of 2022 to address inflation and the return to pre-pandemic levels of frequency is proceeding as we planned. with up to 25 points of cumulative rate expected by year-end 2023. As a result, the underlying loss ratio is approaching the inflection point we anticipated. And based on this trajectory, we will generate an underwriting profit during 2024 on our path to a long-term combined ratio target of 97% to 98%.

在汽車領域，我們自 2022 年初以來一直在實施的旨在解決通貨膨脹問題和恢復到大流行前頻率水平的費率計劃正在按計劃進行。預計到 2023 年底累計率將達到 25 個點。因此，基礎損失率正在接近我們預期的拐點。根據這一軌跡，我們將在 2024 年實現承保利潤，實現 97% 至 98% 的長期綜合成本率目標。

We have filed and are continuing to file for rate as needed to address anticipated loss cost trends. For example, we have filed for a California auto rate increase of 20%, reflecting our loss experience in that state for the past 3 years. We are hopeful that we'll be able to put that rate into use in the first half of 2024.

我們已經並將繼續根據需要提交費率申請，以解決預期的損失成本趨勢。例如，我們已申請將加利福尼亞州的汽車費率提高 20%，反映了我們過去 3 年在該州的損失經歷。我們希望能夠在 2024 年上半年投入使用該費率。

We are pleased that retention is holding across our auto and property books, but we also know that pricing changes can have an impact on our customers. We will continue to be thoughtful about balancing customer impact with the reality of current loss cost trends. We have equipped our agents with the data and resources for discussions with policyholders.

我們很高興我們的汽車和房地產書籍保留了客戶，但我們也知道價格變化會對我們的客戶產生影響。我們將繼續考慮平衡客戶影響與當前損失成本趨勢的現實。我們為我們的代理商提供了與保單持有人討論的數據和資源。

For property, the increase in adverse weather frequency, intensity and geographic reach means we need to take a multifaceted approach. We are addressing the increased loss costs associated with the more severe weather events in 3 ways: additional filed rate, product changes and enhanced modeling. First rate, we expect to meet our rate plan of 12% to 15% increases nationwide by the end of the year. In addition, we continue to implement inflation guard increases that allow us to make adjustments for higher home coverage values at renewal. So the impact on average renewal premium through year-end is closer to a 17% to 20% increase. As we evaluate the impact of continued elevated weather losses, we've already doubled our planned rate increases for property for 2024.

對於房地產來說，惡劣天氣頻率、強度和地理範圍的增加意味著我們需要採取多方面的方法。我們正在通過三種方式解決與更惡劣的天氣事件相關的損失成本增加：額外的歸檔率、產品變更和增強的建模。首先，我們預計年底前將實現全國范圍內加價12%至15%的計劃。此外，我們繼續實施通脹防範措施，使我們能夠在續保時針對更高的家庭保險價值進行調整。因此，到年底平均續保保費的影響接近增加 17% 至 20%。在評估天氣損失持續增加的影響時，我們已經將 2024 年房地產費率上調幅度提高了一倍。

We now expect the impact on average written premiums next year, will be approaching this year's levels. One important example is the property rate increase of about 25% we have pending in California. We'll work closely with the department to bring that filing to resolution with the impact expected on renewals in 2024.

我們現在預計明年平均承保保費的影響將接近今年的水平。一個重要的例子是，我們正在考慮將加利福尼亞州的房產稅提高約 25%。我們將與該部門密切合作，解決該申請，預計對 2024 年續訂產生影響。

Second, we are looking to modify policy terms and conditions to mitigate the cost of damages. For example, in several key states, we are implementing an age of roof loss settlement process that will result in significant savings to offset higher loss costs and catastrophe volatility in those states. Lastly, we are continually updating and enhancing our modeling sophistication. We have brought in new tools specifically to help us better understand the impact of severe convective storms, and we will integrate that data into our future rate and underwriting actions. These actions to further address severe weather will start to contribute in 2024, but the full benefit can be expected in 2025. As Bret will discuss, these actions keep us on track to our combined ratio targets and we'll respond with further actions if external factors require.

其次，我們正在尋求修改保單條款和條件以減輕損失成本。例如，在幾個關鍵州，我們正在實施屋頂損失結算流程，這將帶來大量節省，以抵消這些州更高的損失成本和災難波動。最後，我們不斷更新和增強我們的建模複雜性。我們專門引入了新工具來幫助我們更好地了解強對流風暴的影響，我們將把這些數據整合到我們未來的費率和承保行動中。這些進一步解決惡劣天氣問題的行動將於2024 年開始發揮作用，但預計到2025 年即可發揮全部效益。正如Bret 將討論的那樣，這些行動使我們能夠朝著綜合比率目標邁進，如果外部情況發生變化，我們將採取進一步行動予以回應因素需要。

As our business grows more diversified, the Property & Casualty segment becomes a smaller part of the larger business, but retains its strategic importance. For example, as the most broadly purchased personal lines product, auto remains a key entry point to educate our households.

隨著我們的業務變得更加多元化，財產與意外傷害部門成為較大業務的較小部分，但保留了其戰略重要性。例如，作為最廣泛購買的個人產品，汽車仍然是教育我們家庭的關鍵切入點。

Turning to the current financial concerns facing educators, Student loan repayments will resume this fall after a 3-year federal pause. This milestone disproportionately affects teachers who often have higher educational requirements for their jobs and lower salaries than workers in the private sector. And while some borrowers may have counted on $10,000 or $20,000 onetime loan forgiveness assistance, that isn't likely to be broadly available anytime soon. To be clear, the Biden administration's plan that was blocked by the Supreme Court is completely separate from the public service loan forgiveness program that is the bedrock of our student loan solutions program.

談到教育工作者當前面臨的財務問題，在聯邦暫停三年後，學生貸款償還將於今年秋季恢復。這一里程碑對教師產生了不成比例的影響，因為他們的工作教育要求往往比私營部門的工人更高，但工資卻較低。儘管一些借款人可能指望獲得 10,000 美元或 20,000 美元的一次性貸款減免援助，但這種援助不太可能很快得到廣泛應用。需要明確的是，被最高法院阻止的拜登政府計劃與公共服務貸款減免計劃完全分開，該計劃是我們學生貸款解決方案的基石。

We're in the midst of an awareness campaign to encourage educators who may have been counting on one-time forgiveness to engage with us instead. Our free online accounts connect educators with resources and support to navigate the often confusing process of obtaining the public service loan forgiveness that they deserve. To date, we've helped educators identify more than $600 million of loan forgiveness, solidifying our value as a true partner to the education community. Back-to-school preparations are underway across the company. We are engaging with our agents, both in person and online to prepare for the school year.

我們正在進行一場提高認識的活動，以鼓勵那些可能一直指望一次性寬恕的教育工作者與我們互動。我們的免費在線帳戶為教育工作者提供資源和支持，幫助他們應對通常令人困惑的過程，獲得他們應得的公共服務貸款減免。迄今為止，我們已幫助教育工作者確定了超過 6 億美元的貸款減免，鞏固了我們作為教育界真正合作夥伴的價值。全公司上下正在緊鑼密鼓地做好返校準備工作。我們正在與我們的代理進行面對面和在線的接觸，為學年做準備。

Last month, I traveled to South Carolina to meet with many of our worksite agents. And I was encouraged by the amount of enthusiasm from veteran and new agents alike. Before I turn the call over to Bret, I want to take a step back to reiterate our confidence in our long-term strategy to gain market share and achieve a sustained double-digit return on equity. On occasion, external challenges may slow our progress, but we are clearly building a more resilient company with a more diversified earnings profile. This has clear benefits for investors, employees, agents and most importantly, our educator customers.

上個月，我前往南卡羅來納州會見了我們的許多現場代理。老探員和新探員的熱情讓我深受鼓舞。在我把電話轉給布雷特之前，我想退一步重申我們對獲得市場份額並實現持續兩位數股本回報率的長期戰略的信心。有時，外部挑戰可能會減緩我們的進步，但我們顯然正在建設一家更具彈性、盈利狀況更加多元化的公司。這對投資者、員工、代理商以及最重要的是我們的教育工作者客戶都有明顯的好處。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Bret.

然後，我會將電話轉給布雷特。

Thanks, everyone, for joining our call today. Marita provided a solid overview of the value of our diversification as well as the ways we are addressing the unprecedented pressures on the P&C personal lines industry, so let me turn to the details of the segment performance starting with P&C. Catastrophe losses in the quarter were in line with our pre-announcement at $41.5 million, leading to the segment's quarterly loss. Segment net investment income was approximately 40% above the prior year with limited partnership portfolio returns at targeted levels compared with declines last year.

感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。瑪麗塔（Marita）對我們多元化的價值以及我們應對財產和意外險個人保險行業前所未有的壓力的方式進行了全面的概述，所以讓我從財產險和意外險開始詳細介紹該細分市場的業績細節。本季度的巨災損失與我們預先公佈的 4150 萬美元一致，導致該部門出現季度虧損。分部淨投資收入比上年增長約 40%，有限合夥投資組合回報率與去年下降相比達到目標水平。

Although there were 19 catastrophe events in this year's second quarter, including multiple severe convective storms across the Midwest and Texas in June, the impact of catastrophe losses on our results was actually 4.2 points lower than last year. As we continue to address post pandemic loss trends, our analysis confirms that we took the appropriate reserve actions throughout 2022.

儘管今年第二季度發生了19起巨災事件，其中包括6月份橫跨中西部和德克薩斯州的多場強對流風暴，但巨災損失對我們業績的影響實際上比去年低了4.2個百分點。隨著我們繼續應對大流行後的損失趨勢，我們的分析證實我們在 2022 年採取了適當的儲備行動。

Turning to the results. Total written premiums rose again this quarter by 8.2%, reflecting the accelerating impact of the rate actions that we have implemented to date. With the rate environment rising across the industry, we're pleased to see very stable retention. The sales growth we're seeing is coming largely from states where we're most confident in the outlook for pricing. Marita covered the rate and non-rate underwriting actions we are taking in both auto and property, but let me add a few details on each business.

轉向結果。本季度承保保費總額再次增長 8.2%，反映出我們迄今為止實施的費率行動的影響正在加速。隨著整個行業利率環境的不斷提高，我們很高興看到非常穩定的保留率。我們看到的銷售增長主要來自我們對定價前景最有信心的州。瑪麗塔介紹了我們在汽車和財產方面採取的利率和非利率承保行動，但讓我添加一些有關每項業務的詳細信息。

For auto, the rate we've implemented translated into a year-over-year increase in average written premiums of 11.4%, up from 8.1% in the first quarter and 4.8% in the fourth quarter. Largely due to weather-related frequency, the auto combined ratio for the full year is now expected to be above the 107 we had originally targeted, but we expect to return to an underwriting profit in 2024. We continue to take rate actions that are designed to get us to our long-term target level of 97% to 98%.

對於汽車保險，我們實施的費率意味著平均承保保費同比增長 11.4%，高於第一季度的 8.1% 和第四季度的 4.8%。主要由於與天氣相關的頻率，目前預計全年汽車綜合成本率將高於我們最初目標的 107，但我們預計將在 2024 年恢復承保利潤。我們將繼續採取旨在設計的利率行動讓我們達到97 % 至98% 的長期目標水平。

Turning to property. Second quarter average written premiums were also up 11.4% year-over-year. Rate increases countrywide continue to be bolstered by inflation adjustments to coverage values. The property underlying loss ratio was 49.8%, in line with the first quarter. Due to the severe weather, we've doubled our rate plan for 2024. The additional contribution from those actions keep us on track to achieve our long-term combined ratio target of 92% to 93% in this business. Taking into account the impact of cat losses, the P&C segment core loss is now expected to be between $27 million and $32 million for the full year. We adjusted our full year cat loss contribution to $95 million to $100 million or about 15.5 points to the combined ratio, acknowledging the potential for continued outsized weather losses through the second half. The longer-term combined ratio target for this segment remains at 95% to 96%.

轉向財產。第二季度平均承保保費也同比增長 11.4%。通貨膨脹對承保價值的調整繼續推動全國范圍內的利率上漲。房地產基礎損失率為49.8%，與第一季度持平。由於惡劣天氣的影響，我們將 2024 年的費率計劃提高了一倍。這些行動帶來的額外貢獻使我們有望實現該業務 92% 至 93% 的長期綜合成本率目標。考慮到巨災損失的影響，財產險部門全年核心損失預計在2700萬美元至3200萬美元之間。我們承認下半年天氣損失可能持續出現巨額損失，因此我們將全年貓類損失貢獻調整至 9500 萬至 1 億美元，即綜合比率約 15.5 個百分點。該細分市場的長期綜合成本率目標仍保持在 95% 至 96%。

Turning to Life and Retirement. The segment performed largely as expected, with adjusted core earnings at $17.5 million. Net investment income was negatively impacted by lower limited partnership portfolio returns. As a result, the annualized net interest spread on our fixed annuity business was 203 bps for the second quarter, down from 303 bps last year. Year-over-year, the net contribution from our FHLB funding agreements remain stable, although net investment income reflected higher earnings from the floating rate investments backing the program. Interest credited similarly reflected offsetting higher interest expense.

轉向生活和退休。該部門的表現基本符合預期，調整後核心收益為 1750 萬美元。淨投資收入受到有限合夥投資組合回報率下降的負面影響。因此，我們第二季度固定年金業務的年化淨利差為 203 個基點，低於去年的 303 個基點。與去年同期相比，我們的 FHLB 融資協議的淨貢獻保持穩定，儘管淨投資收入反映了支持該計劃的浮動利率投資帶來的較高收益。貸記利息同樣反映了抵消較高的利息支出。

For the segment, total benefit expenses, the total of mortality costs and change in reserves declined again this quarter as favorable market risk benefit adjustments for retirement more than offset a marginal increase in life mortality experience. For the retirement business, net annuity contract deposits were up 8.3% to $113 million for the second quarter. Cash value persistency was down a bit to 92.2%, largely outside of our core 403(b) accounts. We had another good quarter for Retirement Advantage, the fee-based mutual fund platform that we believe creates long-term opportunity for this business segment.

對於該部門，總福利支出、總死亡成本和準備金變化本季度再次下降，因為退休市場風險福利的有利調整足以抵消生命死亡率經歷的邊際增長。對於退休業務，第二季度年金合同存款淨額增長 8.3%，達到 1.13 億美元。現金價值持續性略有下降，降至 92.2%，主要不屬於我們的核心 403(b) 賬戶。我們的 Retirement Advantage 又迎來了一個良好的季度，這是一個收費的共同基金平台，我們相信它為該業務部門創造了長期機會。

Life annualized sales were flat for the quarter, but up 10% year-to-date, with persistency remaining strong. We continue to look for life sales as a way to initiate and solidify educator relationships, and we are very pleased with the progress. We updated our core earnings guidance for this segment to $63 million to $65 million to reflect the lower-than-anticipated fixed annuity spread in the first half. The longer-term targeted range for the spread remains at 220 to 230 bps.

本季度壽險年化銷售額持平，但年初至今增長了 10%，且持續性依然強勁。我們繼續尋求生命銷售作為建立和鞏固教育者關係的一種方式，我們對進展感到非常滿意。我們將該部門的核心盈利指引更新為 6300 萬至 6500 萬美元，以反映上半年固定年金利差低於預期。利差的長期目標範圍仍為 220 至 230 個基點。

Now let me turn to the supplemental and Group Benefits segment where we are reaping the rewards of the investments we have made and will continue to make in diversifying into this higher growth, higher ROE and less capital-intensive business. For the segment, second quarter core earnings were $11.8 million with a blended benefit ratio at 40.9%, remaining ahead of our long-term target of 43%. The benefit ratio for the worksite Direct product line again moved toward our target for that business, although utilization remains below historical levels. The benefit ratio for the employer-sponsored product line, which is normal seasonal fluctuations, increased from last year's relatively low results for this period and remains in line with expectations.

現在讓我談談補充和集團福利部門，我們正在從我們所做的投資中獲得回報，並將繼續多元化發展到這種更高增長、更高股本回報率和資本密集度較低的業務。該部門第二季度核心收益為 1180 萬美元，綜合福利率為 40.9%，仍高於我們 43% 的長期目標。儘管利用率仍低於歷史水平，但工地直接產品線的效益率再次接近我們對該業務的目標。雇主資助產品線的福利比率是正常的季節性波動，較去年同期相對較低的結果有所上升，並與預期保持一致。

Second quarter premiums and contract charges earned were $66 million, with segment sales at $4.4 million. Sales levels in our worksite direct business, the supplemental products acquired in the NTA transaction in 2019 have reached the pre-pandemic run rate, and we're looking forward to growing from here. Sales of employer-sponsored products are seasonal, typically highest in the first and third quarters when benefit years begin. We continue to gain traction with our distribution partners and are pleased with the momentum we are seeing.

第二季度保費和合同費用收入為 6600 萬美元，分部銷售額為 440 萬美元。我們工地直營業務的銷售水平以及2019年NTA交易中獲得的補充產品已經達到了疫情前的運行率，我們期待著在此基礎上繼續增長。雇主贊助產品的銷售具有季節性，通常在福利年開始的第一季度和第三季度最高。我們繼續吸引分銷合作夥伴的關注，並對我們所看到的勢頭感到滿意。

As we noted last quarter, seasonal fluctuations in sales patterns and the benefit ratio are anticipated in our full year guidance for worksite. But based on the strong first half, we again raised our guidance for this segment to the range of $47 million to $50 million. We continue to expect the segment will represent about 25% of total premiums and contract charges earned for the year.

正如我們上季度所指出的，我們的全年工地指導預計會出現銷售模式和效益比的季節性波動。但基於上半年的強勁表現，我們再次將這一細分市場的指導上調至 4700 萬美元至 5000 萬美元的範圍。我們仍然預計該部分將佔全年保費和合同費用總額的 25% 左右。

Total net investment income on the managed portfolio rose 3.9% to $82.5 million as floating rate investments benefit from the higher rate environment, including our commercial mortgage loan funds. Pre-tax investment yield on the portfolio, excluding limited partnership interest, was 4.52% with new money yields continuing to exceed portfolio yields in the core fixed maturity securities portfolio. The A+ rated core portfolio remains concentrated in investment-grade corporates, municipals and highly liquid agency and agency MBS securities, positioning us well for a potential recessionary environment later in 2023.

由於浮動利率投資（包括我們的商業抵押貸款基金）受益於較高的利率環境，管理投資組合的總淨投資收入增長了 3.9%，達到 8,250 萬美元。該投資組合的稅前投資收益率（不包括有限合夥權益）為 4.52%，新資金收益率繼續超過核心固定期限證券投資組合的收益率。 A+ 評級的核心投資組合仍然集中於投資級企業、市政債券以及高流動性機構和機構 MBS 證券，這使我們能夠應對 2023 年晚些時候潛在的衰退環境。

In fact, we've recently seen opportunities to buy AA+ rated agency securities, at yields above 5%. Following the valuation adjustments taken last year, the higher rate environment is also benefiting from commercial mortgage loan fund returns. This is offsetting lower limited partnership portfolio returns compared with the last year's second quarter.

事實上，我們最近看到了以高於 5% 的收益率購買 AA+ 評級機構證券的機會。繼去年進行估值調整後，較高的利率環境也受益於商業抵押貸款基金的回報。這抵消了與去年第二季度相比較低的有限合夥投資組合回報。

Due to the elevated interest rate environment, the net unrealized investment loss position of the fixed maturity securities portfolio rose to $501 million pre-tax at quarter end compared to $453 million at the end of the first quarter. As you'll recall, unlike a pure-play P&C peer, nearly 90% of our asset portfolio supports longer-term liabilities in the L&R and S&GB segments with asset durations around 7 years. We don't expect to realize many of those unrealized losses as the portfolio is high quality, we have steady cash flow and our liability profile doesn't typically require us to monetize those positions from either a claim or surrender activity standpoint.

由於利率環境升高，固定期限證券投資組合的稅前淨未實現投資損失頭寸從第一季度末的 4.53 億美元增至稅前 5.01 億美元。您可能還記得，與純粹的財產險同行不同，我們近 90% 的資產組合支持 L&R 和 S&GB 領域的長期負債，資產期限約為 7 年。我們預計不會實現許多未實現的損失，因為投資組合質量很高，我們有穩定的現金流，而且我們的負債狀況通常不需要我們從索賠或退保活動的角度將這些頭寸貨幣化。

As a corollary, this is the primary reason we focus more on adjusted book value, the metric that adjusts for both unrealized investment losses and net reserve remeasurements attributable discount rates. At June 30, adjusted book value per share was $35.55. This is the book value we use when we talk about core return on equity. We also had $17 million in net investment losses in the second quarter as we again took opportunities to reposition the portfolio to improve book yield. Our net investment income guidance is unchanged as we continue to expect full year net investment income from the managed portfolio to be between $325 million and $335 million and approximately $26 million quarterly from the deposit asset on reinsurance.

因此，這是我們更加關注調整後賬面價值的主要原因，該指標針對未實現投資損失和淨準備金重新計量歸屬折現率進行調整。截至 6 月 30 日，調整後每股賬面價值為 35.55 美元。這是我們在談論核心股本回報率時使用的賬面價值。第二季度我們還出現了 1700 萬美元的淨投資損失，因為我們再次抓住機會重新定位投資組合以提高賬面收益率。我們的淨投資收入指引保持不變，因為我們仍然預計管理投資組合的全年淨投資收入將在 3.25 億美元至 3.35 億美元之間，再保險存款資產的季度淨投資收入約為 2600 萬美元。

In closing, despite the challenges facing the P&C industry, I want to reiterate how clearly first half results demonstrate the progress we are making to leverage the stronger and more diverse organization that Horace Mann has become. We remain confident in our path to sustainable double-digit ROEs -- our Life and Retirement and supplemental and Group Benefits segments provide earnings and capital to mitigate volatility in P&C, the growth we anticipate over the next several years will lead to an increasing share of the education market, and we see a clear path to our longer-term profitability targets in P&C. As a result, we believe 2024 core ROE will be near 10%, which is now the equivalent of about $3.50 in core EPS.

最後，儘管財產與意外險行業面臨挑戰，但我想重申上半年的業績如何清楚地表明我們在利用 Horace Mann 已成為的更強大、更多元化的組織方面所取得的進展。我們對實現可持續兩位數股本回報率的道路仍然充滿信心——我們的人壽和退休以及補充和團體福利部門提供收益和資本，以減輕財產和意外傷害的波動，我們預計未來幾年的增長將導致更多的份額教育市場，我們看到了實現財險和意外傷害領域長期盈利目標的明確途徑。因此，我們認為 2024 年核心 ROE 將接近 10%，相當於現在的核心 EPS 約 3.50 美元。

We continue to target 10% average annual EPS growth in 2025 and beyond. At our targeted profitability across the segments, we know Horace Mann is capable of generating approximately $50 million in excess capital above what we pay in shareholder dividends. We remain committed to maintaining our financial leverage and capital ratios at levels appropriate for our current financial strength ratings but continue to expect to use excess capital in line with our priorities. First, to support growth; second, for shareholder dividends; and third, for opportunistic share repurchases. We continue to expect our progress toward our objectives will accelerate over the coming quarters as we remain focused on providing strong returns to shareholders. Thank you. And with that, I'll turn it back to Heather.

我們繼續設定 2025 年及以後每股收益年均增長 10% 的目標。按照我們各部門的目標盈利能力，我們知道霍勒斯·曼 (Horace Mann) 有能力產生約 5000 萬美元的超額資本，高於我們支付的股東股息。我們仍然致力於將財務槓桿和資本比率維持在適合我們當前財務實力評級的水平，但繼續期望根據我們的優先事項使用過剩資本。第一，支持增長；第二，股東分紅；第三，機會性股票回購。我們仍然預計，隨著我們繼續專注於為股東提供豐厚回報，我們在未來幾個季度實現目標的進展將會加快。謝謝。說到這裡，我會把它轉回給希瑟。

Thank you, operator. We're ready for questions.

謝謝你，接線員。我們已準備好接受提問。

Yes. At this time, we will begin the question-and-answer session (Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from Matt Carletti with JMP.

是的。此時，我們將開始問答環節（操作員說明），第一個問題來自 JMP 的 Matt Carletti。

Marita and Bret, you both touched on a bit about market share growth and kind of picking up share as we go forward. And I was hoping you could expand on that a little bit. Just -- you've spent a good chunk of the last several years, really growing your product set. And when you think about that and the kind of the geographies you're in and what you're doing with distribution, can you give us a little bit of an idea as you look forward like a reasonable investable time frame, 3 to 5 years, maybe something like that. Where do you think that I think got 15-ish percent market share today of the 7.5 million K-12 educators, -- where do you think that could be what the current kind of strategy of Horace Mann supports longer term?

瑪麗塔（Marita）和布雷特（Bret），你們都談到了市場份額的增長以及我們前進過程中份額的增加。我希望你能對此進行一些擴展。只是——過去幾年你花了很大一部分時間來真正發展你的產品集。當您考慮這一點以及您所在的地理位置以及您在分銷方面所做的事情時，您能否給我們一些想法，因為您期待合理的可投資時間框架（3 到 5 年） ，也許類似的東西。您認為，我認為今天在 750 萬 K-12 教育工作者中佔據了 15% 左右的市場份額，您認為 Horace Mann 當前的長期戰略可能支持哪些方面？

Matt, I really appreciate you asking the question because this quarter for us, really wasn't anything new other than I think it solidifies the strategy that we've laid out. And this was a weather quarter that the entire P&C industry saw not only cats, but underlying weather as well. So really nothing new or nothing in the numbers that take us away from that strategy that we've had now for a very long period of time. We built the products relevant to our educator space. We feel really good about the distribution momentum that we have, recruiting's back on track.

馬特，我真的很感謝你提出這個問題，因為這個季度對我們來說，除了我認為它鞏固了我們制定的戰略之外，確實沒有什麼新鮮事。在這個天氣季度，整個財產與意外傷害行業不僅看到了貓，還看到了潛在的天氣。因此，實際上沒有任何新的東西或數字可以讓我們放棄我們長期以來一直採用的策略。我們構建了與我們的教育領域相關的產品。我們對我們的分銷勢頭感到非常滿意，招聘也回到了正軌。

Our agents are excited about the future and feel really good about a lot of the modernization efforts we put into place in our infrastructure. So we're more confident than ever on our ability to build market share in the educator space and also thinking about others who serve that community. In the script, we talked about how many individual supplemental and group benefits customers that we gained with Madison National and NTA and certainly new business since that point in time and building on the cross-sell momentum that we started. When you think about Madison National and NTA certainly was about earnings diversification. We saw that in this quarter. We're not a monoline P&C carrier. We're an educator company, and we've built a resilient multiline company that helps us in times like this.

我們的代理商對未來感到興奮，並對我們在基礎設施中投入的大量現代化努力感到非常滿意。因此，我們比以往任何時候都更有信心在教育領域建立市場份額，並考慮到為該社區服務的其他人。在腳本中，我們討論了我們通過 Madison National 和 NTA 獲得了多少個人補充和團體福利客戶，當然還有自那時以來的新業務以及建立在我們開始的交叉銷售勢頭的基礎上。當你想到麥迪遜國民黨和 NTA 時，你肯定會想到收入多元化。我們在本季度看到了這一點。我們不是單一的財產險承運商。我們是一家教育公司，我們已經建立了一家有彈性的多線公司，可以在這樣的時期為我們提供幫助。

We talk a lot about insulated but not immune. We're not immune from the P&C industry trends that are out there. I think we manage them well, but we also have other businesses that are working really well for us and provide that ballast. But product expansion in the K-12 niche, which we did with the acquisitions and continue to do as we expand what we can bring to that educator niche, not only products, but the solution orientation. We said it in the script, how many student loan conversations we have had that drove that $600 million of student loan forgiveness for those educators, that solidifies that relationship.

我們經常談論隔離，但並非免疫。我們無法免受財產與意外傷害行業的趨勢影響。我認為我們管理得很好，但我們也有其他業務為我們運作得很好並提供了鎮流器。但是，我們在K-12 利基市場中進行了產品擴張，我們通過收購做到了這一點，並將繼續這樣做，因為我們擴大了我們可以為教育者利基市場帶來的東西，不僅是產品，而且是解決方案。我們在劇本中說過，我們進行了多少次學生貸款對話，為這些教育工作者提供了 6 億美元的學生貸款減免，從而鞏固了這種關係。

And I think we're seeing that work. I mean think about the trends in P&C right now. Any actuary would expect with those kind of trends with that much rate, we would see our retention going down. We're not Obviously, here and there, you'll see it. These are big numbers. We don't assume that will hold exactly the way it is. But during these types of times, our retention in P&C in our retirement deposits, it's pretty sticky. Our customers stick with us because of the types of things that we do for them and with them. So I am very confident in our strategy and where we're going and feel good about that market expansion, you say 15%, you say how we think about that growth. I think we're just scratching the surface of what we can do with educators and then how we expand that to other groups that look very similar to our educator niche.

我認為我們正在看到這一點。我的意思是想想現在財產與意外險的趨勢。任何精算師都會預計，隨著這種高比率的趨勢，我們會看到我們的保留率下降。我們並不明顯，到處都是，你會看到的。這些都是很大的數字。我們並不認為情況會完全保持原樣。但在這些時期，我們在退休存款中保留的財產和意外險是相當粘的。我們的客戶之所以選擇我們，是因為我們為他們所做的事情以及與他們一起做的事情。因此，我對我們的戰略以及我們的發展方向非常有信心，並且對市場擴張感到滿意，你說 15%，你說我們如何看待這種增長。我認為我們只是觸及了我們可以對教育工作者做的事情的表面，然後我們如何將其擴展到與我們的教育工作者領域非常相似的其他群體。

That's super helpful. And then just kind of just digging into one of the numbers a little bit. So I'm looking at Slide 18 in the presentation and you break down some industry numbers or the 7.5 million K-12 educators and how many are teachers versus kind of a structural and support staff. It's kind of even a little more teachers, but pretty even split. I'm curious, would Horace Mann current book of business look similar to that split? Or do you lean more heavily to a teacher versus a support staff or an administrator? Or does your book look like the industry?

這非常有幫助。然後稍微深入研究其中一個數字。因此，我正在查看演示文稿中的幻燈片 18，您可以細分一些行業數字或 750 萬 K-12 教育工作者，以及有多少人是教師，有多少人是結構性和支持人員。老師的數量有點多，但分佈相當均勻。我很好奇，霍勒斯·曼 (Horace Mann) 目前的業務簿看起來會與那次拆分相似嗎？或者你更傾向於老師而不是支持人員或管理員？或者你的書看起來像這個行業嗎？

Yes. I would say our -- and we know that our split would lean more towards the teacher space. A lot of our research, a lot of our outreach a lot of where our agents came from, a lot of them from the principal and superintendent ranks. I would say that when you look at our teacher base, it would be skewed towards the teachers themselves, but also the administrators. We have a fair amount of principal, a fair amount of superintendents in our book. We certainly don't dissuade our agents from talking to support staff. But I think the models that we bring to bear the financial planning, the student loan solutions, the donors choose and classroom grants, a lot of our solutions really gear more towards the teacher and the administrator vertical.

是的。我想說的是我們的——我們知道我們的劃分將更傾向於教師空間。我們進行了大量的研究，我們進行了很多外展活動，我們的代理人來自哪裡，其中很多來自校長和主管級別。我想說的是，當你審視我們的教師群體時，你會發現它不僅偏向於教師本身，也偏向於管理人員。我們的賬簿上有相當數量的本金和相當數量的管理者。我們當然不會阻止我們的代理與支持人員交談。但我認為我們用於財務規劃、學生貸款解決方案、捐助者選擇和課堂補助金的模型，我們的許多解決方案確實更適合教師和管理人員。

And the next question comes from John Barnidge with Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自約翰·巴尼奇和派珀·桑德勒。

Thank you for the opportunity today. Question about the core EPS for '24. So I would ask what's the run rate catastrophe loss load? I know run rates and catastrophe losses really don't seem to go hand in hand anymore. But how do you think about that as we look forward to next year?

謝謝你今天給我的機會。關於 '24 核心每股收益的問題。所以我想問災難損失負載的運行率是多少？我知道運行率和災難損失似乎不再齊頭並進。但當我們展望明年時，您對此有何看法？

Yes. Obviously, it would probably be premature to answer that question for '24. You saw what we did in our estimates for the second half and how we thought about second half catastrophes. The only thing you know about this number when you put it out there, John, is it's going to be wrong. You're either going to be too high or too low. So you got to rely on the math, right? You take recency, you take 5-year 10-year averages, you run it out. Everybody is doing the same thing right now. This second quarter was I won't say biblical, but it was certainly historic in many ways, right? So we look at that and we say it's probably prudent for us to assume in the second half of this year that those weather patterns will continue, but we haven't said yet how we think about what we will put in our plans for 2024.

是的。顯然，在 24 年回答這個問題可能還為時過早。您看到了我們對下半年的預測以及我們對下半年災難的看法。約翰，當你把這個數字放在那裡時，你唯一知道的是它會是錯誤的。你要么太高，要么太低。所以你必須依靠數學，對吧？你計算最​​近發生率，計算 5 年 10 年的平均值，然後用完它。現在每個人都在做同樣的事情。我不會說第二季度是聖經，但它在很多方面肯定是歷史性的，對吧？因此，我們對此進行了研究，並表示，我們認為今年下半年這些天氣模式將繼續下去可能是謹慎的做法，但我們尚未說明如何考慮將在 2024 年的計劃中加入哪些內容。

But it's real. So I think the real question is what's everybody doing about it? And I think we were very clear in our script that it's about rate-rate and more rate. The days of a $700 homeowner policy are gone, right? It's about sophisticated models and taking advantage of every piece of science that's out there in your underwriting, and it's about coverage changes. This issue has become certainly an affordability issue in many places. And as you know, when you read, it's becoming an availability issue in some of the more problematic states as well. So I think the industry is very concentrated on this, and we will figure this out. We will get the right coverage. We will get the right price. But make no mistake, this is something that we are and everybody is focused on.

但這是真實的。所以我認為真正的問題是每個人都在做什麼？我認為我們在劇本中非常清楚地表明這是關於利率和更多利率。 700 美元房主保單的日子已經一去不復返了，對嗎？它涉及復雜的模型並利用承保中的每一項科學知識，並且涉及承保範圍的變化。這個問題在許多地方無疑已經成為一個負擔能力問題。如您所知，當您閱讀時，它也成為一些問題較多的州的可用性問題。所以我認為這個行業非常關注這一點，我們會解決這個問題。我們將獲得正確的報導。我們會得到合適的價格。但請不要誤會，這是我們和每個人都關注的事情。

Yes. And John, this is Bret. I would add. I think you've been tracking us long enough to know that over the -- even the past few years, I think it's not too far looking back that you could see a 7.5% load, then I think we took it to 9. And this year, we guided to 10. So it's something we always factor in to our year-end guidance that will include like we always do in our fourth quarter earnings release.

是的。約翰，這是布雷特。我想補充一點。我想你們已經跟踪我們足夠長的時間了，知道在過去的幾年裡，我認為回過頭來看，你們可以看到 7.5% 的負載，然後我想我們把它提高到了 9%。今年，我們的目標是10。因此，我們總是將這一因素納入我們的年終指導中，就像我們在第四季度收益發布中所做的那樣。

And then on the follow-up, is there a level of the expense ratio that's elevated that we should be thinking about if we do get normal cat that might go away? Or how should we think about expense ratios as a result?

接下來，如果我們確實得到了可能會消失的普通貓，我們是否應該考慮是否有一定程度的費用比率升高？或者我們應該如何考慮由此產生的費用比率？

John, this is Bret again. I mean our expense ratio is actually running at what we would expect, I believe, for both the quarter and the full year, we're up about 4%, and that's consolidated. We've guided to around 27% to 27.5% historically and really don't see any significant changes there. So we're -- the increase we're seeing in the expenses as a corporation are consistent with inflation.

約翰，這又是布雷特。我的意思是，我們的費用率實際上符合我們的預期，我相信，無論是本季度還是全年，我們都上漲了約 4%，而且是合併後的。歷史上我們指導的比例約為 27% 至 27.5%，實際上並沒有看到任何重大變化。因此，作為一家公司，我們看到的支出增長與通貨膨脹是一致的。

And the next question comes from Meyer Shields with KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

A similar question, and I'm not looking for a number, but more in terms of how you're thinking about this. I guess, it's a little less than 10 years, and we had a -- the unexpected frequency spike in about 2015 and now severity spiking. And I'm wondering how -- maybe there's a question for Mark. How do you think about the profit and contingency provision in rates. Does that need to go up completely because it seems like there are (inaudible) out there?

類似的問題，我不是在尋找數字，而是在尋找您如何看待這個問題。我想，這還不到 10 年，我們在 2015 年左右出現了意外的頻率峰值，現在嚴重程度飆升。我想知道如何——也許有一個問題要問馬克。您如何看待利率中的利潤和應急準備金？是否需要完全上升，因為似乎有（聽不清）在那裡？

Yes. I don't know if you have a specific answer to that, Mark. I think it's an interesting way to ask the questions since everything has to be factored in. I mean on the expense side of it, and then I'll turn it over to Mark on the trends because I think there might be a more general trend to answer to that question. On the expense side, keep in mind that we've got a fair amount of strategic growth built into our thought process going forward. We didn't do the acquisitions that we did. We didn't build the product. We didn't pay for the infrastructure. We didn't build out the distribution to not grow. So our plans clearly are around growing this place, and you expect the structure reflects that. I mean I'm very proud of the fact that we were able to hold our expenses relatively flat while we did a lot of heavy lifting and building this place, so it was ready for the growth that we're very confident will come. But I'll turn it over to Mark and let him answer anything around the trend question there.

是的。我不知道你是否對此有具體的答案，馬克。我認為這是一種有趣的提問方式，因為一切都必須考慮在內。我的意思是在費用方面，然後我會將其轉交給馬克關於趨勢，因為我認為可能有一個更普遍的趨勢回答這個問題。在費用方面，請記住，我們在未來的思維過程中融入了相當多的戰略增長。我們沒有進行我們所做的收購。我們沒有製造產品。我們沒有為基礎設施付費。我們構建發行版並不是為了不增長。所以我們的計劃顯然是圍繞著這個地方的發展而展開的，你希望這個結構能夠反映出這一點。我的意思是，我感到非常自豪的是，我們在進行大量繁重的工作和建設這個地方的同時，能夠將開支保持在相對平穩的水平，因此我們已經為我們非常有信心的增長做好了準備。但我會把它交給馬克，讓他回答有關趨勢問題的任何問題。

Yes. I mean Meyer, I think we -- I mean, we already do to some extent, factor in a higher profit and contingencies load in the property side to address this. But I think you do make a good point. It's something that we need to continue to look at as an industry because I believe and I think Marita believes as well, and she said this several times that if we look at auto, auto has been clearly a severity issue. It's a short-tailed line. I think everyone is eventually going to catch up to the severity side there. But on the property side, there is this question about the long-term impact of weather.

是的。我的意思是邁耶，我認為我們——我的意思是，我們已經在某種程度上考慮了房地產方面更高的利潤和意外負載來解決這個問題。但我認為你的觀點確實很好。這是我們作為一個行業需要繼續關注的事情，因為我相信，我認為瑪麗塔也相信，她多次說過，如果我們看看汽車，汽車顯然是一個嚴重的問題。這是一條短尾線。我認為每個人最終都會趕上那裡的嚴重性。但在房地產方面，存在天氣的長期影響的問題。

And are we taking enough rate to keep up with our profit targets are high enough vis-a-vis our combined ratio targets low enough. I think that's a legitimate question that we all need to answer as an industry. And I think as we said in the script and Marita reiterated that we will take an aggressive look at property rates, we've already doubled our expectation for next year in terms of rate. So we're looking at another year in 2024 similar to this year because we're trying to address, I think, some of the issues that we're all experiencing throughout the industry with the continued impact of weather.

我們是否採取了足夠的利率來跟上我們足夠高的利潤目標（相對於我們足夠低的綜合比率目標）。我認為這是一個我們整個行業都需要回答的合理問題。我認為正如我們在劇本中所說的那樣，瑪麗塔重申我們將積極審視房地產價格，我們已經將明年的利率預期提高了一倍。因此，我們預計 2024 年將是與今年類似的一年，因為我認為，我們正在努力解決整個行業都在天氣持續影響下遇到的一些問題。

Okay. That's very helpful. Second question, maybe this is a little bit more yes or no. But can you talk about the tools that you have to ensure that if you're implementing these necessary rate increases in P&C that you're able to retain customers that have policies in the other segments that are doing pretty well.

好的。這非常有幫助。第二個問題，也許這有點更多的是或否。但是，您能否談談您必須使用哪些工具來確保，如果您在財產險和意外險中實施這些必要的費率提高，您就能夠保留在其他細分市場中擁有政策且表現良好的客戶。

Yes. That's -- it's not just a yes or no. But if you want to, yes or no, I'll give you a yes, but I'll go a little bit further. I think that's where our third-party strategy comes into play. We know that our retention is stronger when we have a multiline customer. The majority of our customers are multiline customers when it makes sense for us to place a particular line of business with another carrier, we have a stable of many strong third-party relationships that we've had now for some time, and they like our educator business as much as we do. I mean we understand that it's a little bit more difficult in a harder market because we may all be thinking the same things at the same time. But make no mistake, we have a fair amount of business with third parties, and that works out quite well for us. So with or without a third party, our retention numbers, I think, speak for themselves. And I said that earlier that we're continuing to see those numbers hold.

是的。這不僅僅是是或否。但如果你願意，無論是或否，我都會給你“是”，但我會更進一步。我認為這就是我們的第三方戰略發揮作用的地方。我們知道，當我們擁有多線客戶時，我們的保留率會更高。當我們將特定業務線與另一家運營商合作時，我們的大多數客戶都是多線客戶，我們已經建立了一段時間的穩定的許多強大的第三方關係，並且他們喜歡我們的教育工作者的事業和我們一樣。我的意思是，我們知道，在困難的市場中，這會有點困難，因為我們可能都會同時思考同樣的事情。但請不要誤會，我們與第三方有大量業務，這對我們來說效果很好。因此，無論有沒有第三方，我認為我們的保留數字是不言而喻的。我早些時候說過，我們將繼續看到這些數字保持不變。

And the next question comes from Greg Peters with Raymond James.

下一個問題來自格雷格·彼得斯和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

This is Sid on for Greg. We hear commentary on the difficult states in personal auto, but just curious outside of the difficult states, if you could give us a sense on how you feel about where the rest of your book is? Or if there's anything you can give us on how much of the book you feel is closer to the longer-term combined ratio target?

這是格雷格的席德。我們聽到關於個人汽車中困難狀態的評論，但只是好奇在困難狀態之外，您能否讓我們了解一下您對本書其餘部分的感受？或者您是否可以告訴我們，您認為這本書中有多少內容更接近長期綜合比率目標？

Yes. I mean I can turn that over to Mark, but we think about all the states the same way, right? You're going to price to a combined ratio target and work with the department to get the rate you need to get there. So in that respect, they're not all that different. It's just some states are more difficult to get that rate than other states. But I'll see if Mark has anything to add to that.

是的。我的意思是我可以把它交給馬克，但我們以同樣的方式思考所有的州，對吧？您將根據綜合比率目標進行定價，並與部門合作以獲得實現目標所需的比率。所以在這方面，它們並沒有那麼不同。只是有些州比其他州更難獲得該利率。但我會看看馬克是否有什麼要補充的。

Yes. I think a couple of points here. I think when we look at what we've been able to achieve and what we think we can achieve, we have a very high level of confidence to the path of getting the right rate level in just about every state. California is the one that does stand out there for everybody. I think we have seen very recently that the Department of Insurance has been more proactive in working with carriers on their rate need, which is why we have both on the property side and the auto side, made recent filings that are substantially more than we have historically done.

是的。我認為這裡有幾點。我認為，當我們審視我們已經取得的成就以及我們認為我們能夠實現的目標時，我們對在幾乎每個州獲得正確利率水平的道路充滿信心。加利福尼亞州確實對每個人來說都是脫穎而出的。我認為我們最近看到保險部更加積極地與運營商合作滿足他們的費率需求，這就是為什麼我們在財產方面和汽車方面最近提交的文件遠遠多於我們的文件歷史上完成的。

And we are hopeful and somewhat confident in our ability to get that rate over the next 6 to 9 months and get that into the book, which will make us feel a lot better about that particular problem state. The other problem states that I hear a lot of the competitors talking about are just places that we don't have any presence or a little presence. So New York and New Jersey, we don't have presence there. Florida has been particularly problematic for many in the industry. It is, I think, driving or at least others have commented on its impact on prior year development.

我們對在未來 6 到 9 個月內達到這一比率並將其寫入書中的能力充滿希望和信心，這將使我們對特定問題狀態感覺更好。另一個問題是，我聽到很多競爭對手談論的只是我們沒有任何存在或很少存在的地方。所以紐約和新澤西，我們在那裡沒有辦事處。對於許多業內人士來說，佛羅里達州的問題尤其嚴重。我認為，它正在推動或至少其他人評論了它對前一年發展的影響。

Our Florida book for all intents and purposes is almost inconsequential at this point. It was at 6, 7, 8 years ago, maybe 10-plus percent of our auto book, it's now far less than 1%. So really, outside of California, which, again, I'm more optimistic about than I probably would have been 6 months ago, we have a fairly high degree of confidence in our ability to get to the level we need to get at to be profitable.

在這一點上，我們關於佛羅里達州的書的所有意圖和目的幾乎是無關緊要的。 6、7、8 年前，這個數字可能占我們汽車預訂的 10% 以上，但現在遠低於 1%。因此，實際上，在加利福尼亞州之外，我對加州以外的地區比 6 個月前可能更加樂觀，我們對達到我們需要達到的水平的能力充滿信心。有利可圖。

That was very helpful, Mark. Thank you for that. And I would say we're growing in the right places. We said it in the script, and more states are falling into that bucket as we get to rate adequacy in those states. And I think it's also important to remember that we've got control over our distribution. We have captive distribution. So when we want to tighten the underwriting wheel when we want to put underwriting changes in place when we want to put any of those levers to drive non-rate underwriting actions, it's immediate. We can go out to our agency plant and say, this is how we're managing this particular issue in this state, and that's what they do. We're not in an independent agent world where that time line might be a little bit longer to control behavior. So that's helpful as well.

這非常有幫助，馬克。謝謝你。我想說我們正在正確的地方成長。我們在劇本中說過，隨著我們對這些州的充分性進行評估，更多的州正在陷入這一困境。我認為記住我們可以控制我們的發行版也很重要。我們有專屬分銷。因此，當我們想要收緊承保輪子時，當我們想要實施承保變更時，當我們想要利用任何槓桿來推動非利率承保行動時，這是立竿見影的。我們可以到我們的代理工廠說，這就是我們在這個州管理這個特定問題的方式，這就是他們所做的。我們並不處於一個獨立代理的世界，控制行為的時間可能會更長一點。所以這也很有幫助。

A question -- and we do have a follow-up question with Matt Carletti with JMP.

一個問題——我們確實有一個關於 JMP 的 Matt Carletti 的後續問題。

I just had a question probably for Ryan, maybe for Bret. This has this been focus in the market kind of year-to-date on commercial real estate and so forth. And I was hoping maybe you can give us an update on your guys' investments there. I know you've been very thoughtful and have a very good view of the market. And maybe while at it touch on the limited partnership funds as well.

我只是有一個問題可能要問瑞安，也可能要問布雷特。這是今年迄今為止商業地產等市場的焦點。我希望您能給我們提供有關您的投資的最新信息。我知道您考慮得很周到，並且對市場有很好的看法。也許同時也涉及到有限合夥基金。

This is Ryan. So when I think about total real estate exposure in the portfolio, it's about 12%, and the vast majority of that, over 80% of it is senior commercial mortgage loan exposure. And if we want to dive right into the asset class, the exposure to office that folks tend to be the most concerned about right now, that total exposure across our entire portfolio is less than 3%. So it's under $200 million, and it's mainly in your commercial mortgage loan funds. The average LTV on those office properties is 68%. We've got a strong debt service coverage ratio on them as well. And we're doing monitoring. We know what's in the portfolio.

這是瑞安。因此，當我考慮投資組合中的總房地產風險敞口時，它約為 12%，其中絕大多數（超過 80%）是高級商業抵押貸款風險敞口。如果我們想直接進入資產類別，即人們目前最關心的辦公室風險敞口，那麼我們整個投資組合的總風險敞口不到 3%。所以不到2億美元，主要是你的商業抵押貸款資金。這些辦公物業的平均 LTV 為 68%。我們對它們的償債覆蓋率也很高。我們正在做監控。我們知道投資組合中有什麼。

We know line by line, building by building, lease roll by lease roll, and we feel pretty confident in our exposure there. The bulk of the portfolio is skewed towards multifamily, which historically has performed very well through various economic cycles. And you saw some pressure in our commercial mortgage loan funds last year, which is the function of the fact that the majority of our commercial mortgage loan exposure is equity method of accounting. It's in funds. That's a little bit different than peers. But we took our valuation adjustments early. We marked that portfolio to market basically quarterly. And so you can see the rebound in returns this year, this quarter's annualized return for our CML funds for Q2 alone was over 6%. And these are mainly floating rate securities, and they're going to serve us well in the rate environment we're in.

我們了解一條條線路、一座又一座建築、一個又一個租賃卷，我們對我們在那裡的曝光非常有信心。大部分投資組合偏向於多戶型住宅，從歷史上看，多戶型住宅在各種經濟周期中都表現良好。去年我們的商業抵押貸款資金面臨一些壓力，這是因為我們的大部分商業抵押貸款敞口採用權益會計法。是在資金裡。這與同齡人有點不同。但我們很早就進行了估值調整。我們基本上每季度將該投資組合推向市場。所以你可以看到今年回報率的反彈，僅第二季度我們的 CML 基金的年化回報率就超過了 6%。這些主要是浮動利率證券，它們將在我們所處的利率環境中為我們提供良好的服務。

Stepping back and looking at the limited partnership portfolio, again, the second quarter was a nice rebound from the negative returns we saw in the first quarter. LPs by nature of what they are, will be lumpy, the quarter-to-quarter performance will be somewhat volatile, but we put up a mid-high 5% return this quarter. And when I dissect that, our private credit and our infrastructure strategies continue to deliver solid, steady returns. This past quarter, they were low double digits, and that offset some of the valuation pressure that you're going to get from the more volatile equity investments.

回過頭來看看有限合夥投資組合，第二季度的回報比第一季度的負回報有了很好的反彈。有限合夥人本質上是不穩定的，季度業績會有些波動，但我們本季度的回報率為 5% 的中高水平。當我剖析這一點時，我們的私人信貸和基礎設施戰略繼續帶來堅實、穩定的回報。上個季度，它們的增長率為兩位數，這抵消了波動性較大的股票投資帶來的部分估值壓力。

And so when I think about LP returns for the full year, we're guiding to being under our historic 8.5% level for that portfolio, and that's really reflective of the first half performance. But to sum it up, we feel confident. We like our exposure, and we feel pretty good about the prospects as we move through this economic cycle.

因此，當我考慮全年的有限合夥人回報時，我們指導該投資組合低於 8.5% 的歷史水平，這確實反映了上半年的表現。但總而言之，我們充滿信心。我們喜歡我們的曝光度，並且在我們經歷這個經濟周期時，我們對前景感到非常好。

And this concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to return the floor to Heather Wietzel for any closing comments.

問答環節到此結束。我想請希瑟·維策爾發言以徵求結束意見。

Thank you, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We realize it's a very busy day, and I will be available to arrange additional follow-up conversations as people -- there's something we want to touch base on. Just also flagging, we will be at the KBW conference in September, and we'll be in Chicago the following week on for a day that Raymond James is helping us put together. And then looking at into November, there's a number of conferences and other trips with Piper, JMP, Dowling, lots on the road, lots of chances to talk to people. So I look forward to connecting and I wish everyone a good day.

謝謝大家，謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們意識到這是非常忙碌的一天，我將可以安排其他後續對話——我們想談談一些事情。另外，我們將參加 9 月份的 KBW 會議，下週我們將在芝加哥度過一天，雷蒙德·詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 正在幫助我們組織會議。展望 11 月，我們將與 Piper、JMP、Dowling 一起參加許多會議和其他旅行，很多在路上，有很多與人們交談的機會。所以我期待著聯繫並祝大家有美好的一天。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路。