Horace Mann Educators Corp (HMN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Horace Mann Educators Q4 2022 investor call. (Operator Instructions) Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Heather Wietzel, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Horace Mann Educators 2022 年第四季度投資者電話會議。（操作員說明）如果您需要幫助，請按星號鍵，然後按零，向會議專家發出信號。今天的演講結束後，將有機會提問。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Heather Wietzel。請繼續。

Thank you and good morning everyone. Welcome to Horace Mann’s discussion of our fourth quarter and full year results. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, investor supplement and investor presentation. Copies are available on the Investor page of our website.

謝謝大家早上好。歡迎來到 Horace Mann 對我們第四季度和全年業績的討論。昨天，我們發布了收益發布、投資者補充和投資者介紹。副本可在我們網站的投資者頁面上獲得。

Marita Zuraitis, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Bret Conklin, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer will give the formal remarks on today’s call. With us for the Q&A, we have Matt Sharpe, Mark Desrochers, Mike Weckenbrock, and Ryan Greenier.

總裁兼首席執行官 Marita Zuraitis 和執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Bret Conklin 將在今天的電話會議上發表正式講話。參加問答環節的有 Matt Sharpe、Mark Desrochers、Mike Weckenbrock 和 Ryan Greenier。

Before turning it over to Marita, I want to note that our presentation today includes forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company cautions investors that any forward-looking statements include risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and we assume no obligation to update them. Actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors which are described in our news release and SEC filings.

在將其交給 Marita 之前，我想指出，我們今天的演示文稿包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。該公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述都包含風險和不確定性，並非保證的未來表現。這些前瞻性陳述基於管理層當前的預期，我們不承擔更新它們的義務。由於我們的新聞稿和 SEC 文件中描述的各種因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異。

In our prepared remarks, we use some non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures are available in our investor supplement. I’ll now turn the call over to Marita.

在我們準備好的評論中，我們使用了一些非 GAAP 措施。我們的投資者補充中提供了這些措施與最具可比性的 GAAP 措施的調節。我現在將電話轉給 Marita。

Thanks Heather, and hello everyone. In line with our pre-announcement, last night we reported full year 2022 core earnings per share of $1.09, which included a fourth quarter core loss of $0.11 per share. Inflation’s continued pressure has driven escalated industry-wide loss costs and resulted in disappointing results for our property and casualty business. I’ll spend much of my time today unpacking how we are meeting the challenges facing the P&C industry. After that, I want to discuss and pivot to the substantial progress we achieved on the growth initiatives we laid out a year ago in conjunction with adding Madison National and expanding our educator value proposition to fully meet the needs of both educators and school districts.

謝謝希瑟，大家好。根據我們的預先公告，昨晚我們公佈了 2022 年全年核心每股收益 1.09 美元，其中包括第四季度每股核心虧損 0.11 美元。通貨膨脹的持續壓力導致整個行業的損失成本不斷上升，並導致我們的財產和意外傷害業務的業績令人失望。我今天將花大量時間來闡述我們如何應對財產險行業面臨的挑戰。之後，我想討論並重點關注我們在一年前製定的增長計劃方面取得的實質性進展，包括增加麥迪遜國立大學和擴大我們的教育者價值主張，以充分滿足教育者和學區的需求。

Sustained growth across both our retail and worksite divisions will be the most accurate predictor of our company’s long term success. Over the course of 2022, we made important progress against our plan, leveraging our leadership position in the education market to increase sales and build relationships, in other words to expand our share of the education market. In 2023, we will build on these successes, leveraging our sales momentum and distribution partnerships while resuming our trajectory towards our long term goal of a sustained double-digit return on equity. Bret will discuss the details of 2023 guidance later in the call, but at a high level, we expect core earnings per share to double over 2022 and be between $2 and $2.30 with return on equity rising to 6% as we head towards the double-digit ROE we expect for 2024.

我們零售和工作場所部門的持續增長將是我們公司長期成功的最準確預測指標。在 2022 年期間，我們的計劃取得了重要進展，利用我們在教育市場的領先地位來增加銷售額和建立關係，換句話說，擴大我們在教育市場的份額。到 2023 年，我們將在這些成功的基礎上再接再厲，利用我們的銷售勢頭和分銷合作夥伴關係，同時恢復我們實現持續兩位數股本回報率的長期目標的軌跡。 Bret 將在電話會議稍後討論 2023 年指導的細節，但在高水平上，我們預計核心每股收益將在 2022 年翻一番，介於 2 美元和 2.30 美元之間，隨著我們走向雙倍，股本回報率將上升至 6%我們預計 2024 年的數字股本回報率。

 Our guidance anticipates a solid contribution from the worksite business with benefit ratios in that business moving closer to our long term targets: year-over-year improvement in life and retirement business, even as spreads compress, and a return to profitability for the P&C business, a business that is key to our educator value proposition and has been a historically profitable line of business for Horace Mann. In fact, before I turn to the way we’re addressing the inflationary environment for P&C, let’s look again at how we approach this market a bit differently, because we are not a model line P&C company, we’re an educator company. Horace Mann is built on a deep respect and admiration for our nation’s educators. We are proud to take care of the people who take care of our children’s futures. Our business strategy is to attract and retain multi-line customers by providing the financial solutions they need at each stage of their lives.

我們的指導意見預計工地業務將做出穩固的貢獻，該業務的收益比率將更接近我們的長期目標：人壽和退休業務的同比改善，即使利差壓縮，以及 P&C 恢復盈利業務，這是我們教育者價值主張的關鍵業務，並且一直是 Horace Mann 歷史上有利可圖的業務線。事實上，在我談到我們應對財產險通脹環境的方式之前，讓我們再看看我們如何以不同的方式對待這個市場，因為我們不是一家模型線財產險公司，我們是一家教育公司。霍勒斯·曼 (Horace Mann) 建立在對我們國家教育工作者的深深尊重和欽佩之上。我們很自豪能夠照顧那些照顧我們孩子未來的人。我們的業務戰略是通過提供他們在人生各個階段所需的金融解決方案來吸引和留住多線客戶。

Quite honestly, being an educator is tough right now, and they need someone in their corner. Coming out of the pandemic, there was hope things would, "return to normal" in terms of school schedules and other challenges; however, the pandemic accelerated the national shortage of qualified teachers and support staff. Nearly 80% of educators Horace Mann surveyed for a recent study said school under-staffing has either a severe or moderate impact on students’ ability to learn and teachers’ ability to do their jobs well.

老實說，現在做一名教育工作者很艱難，他們需要有人站在他們這邊。從大流行病中走出來，希望事情會在學校時間表和其他挑戰方面“恢復正常”；然而，大流行病加速了全國合格教師和輔助人員的短缺。 Horace Mann 在最近的一項研究中接受調查的教育工作者中，近 80% 的人表示，學校人員不足對學生的學習能力和教師做好工作的能力有嚴重或中度的影響。

Staffing shortages are requiring educators to take on more work and generate even more stress. That stress is compounded by financial concerns. Although teachers’ primary motivation is not a paycheck, generally teachers are paid less than their private sector peers but require more academic credentials. This leads to higher student loan debt and can preclude savings for retirement and other life goals, and that’s where Horace Mann can help. Our representatives can provide financial wellness workshops for school staff on topics like student loan forgiveness and state teacher retirement systems. They can work with educators to create a financial plan, becoming a trusted advisor. Further, we can support administrators looking to augment teacher recruiting and retention by bolstering benefit packages with employer paid and sponsored coverages.

人員短缺要求教育工作者承擔更多的工作並產生更大的壓力。財務問題加劇了這種壓力。雖然教師的主要動機不是薪水，但教師的薪水通常低於私營部門的同行，但對學歷的要求更高。這會導致更高的學生貸款債務，並可能妨礙為退休和其他生活目標儲蓄，而這正是 Horace Mann 可以提供幫助的地方。我們的代表可以為學校工作人員提供財務健康研討會，主題包括學生貸款寬恕和州教師退休制度。他們可以與教育工作者合作制定財務計劃，成為值得信賴的顧問。此外，我們可以支持管理員通過用雇主支付和讚助的保險來支持福利計劃，以增加教師的招聘和保留。

All of that is to say that we value our customers and our customers value the relationship with Horace Mann. They know we strive to offer a fair price through varied market conditions, creating long term value for our educators and for our company. Our underwriting, actuarial and pricing teams continually monitor trends in the personal, auto and property markets, and we use their expertise to guide our product pricing and features to achieve our combined ratio targets for auto and property. Similarly, our reserving practices are based on our best estimate of what we believe we will need to pay claims.

所有這一切都表明我們重視我們的客戶，而我們的客戶也重視與 Horace Mann 的關係。他們知道我們努力在不同的市場條件下提供公平的價格，為我們的教育工作者和我們的公司創造長期價值。我們的承保、精算和定價團隊持續監控個人、汽車和房地產市場的趨勢，我們利用他們的專業知識來指導我們的產品定價和功能，以實現我們對汽車和房地產的綜合比率目標。同樣，我們的準備金做法是基於我們對我們認為需要支付索賠的金額的最佳估計。

However, inflation in a post-pandemic 2022 didn’t reflect anything seen in recent decades. Core inflation over the course of the past year has been the highest we have experienced in 40 years. Costs related to supply chain issues, labor, materials, medical care and litigation have all risen at unprecedented levels. As we noted in our preliminary announcement, we also have further accelerated both auto and property rate plans for 2023 to build on increases implemented in 2022. About 70% of our auto business is on six-month policies, so we will start to see the benefit of these increases in the coming months. We also continue to take other non-rate underwriting actions.

然而，大流行後 2022 年的通貨膨脹並沒有反映出近幾十年來的任何情況。過去一年的核心通脹是我們 40 年來經歷的最高水平。與供應鏈問題、勞動力、材料、醫療和訴訟相關的成本都以前所未有的水平上升。正如我們在初步公告中指出的那樣，我們還進一步加快了 2023 年的汽車和財產利率計劃，以建立在 2022 年實施的增長基礎上。我們大約 70% 的汽車業務採用六個月政策，因此我們將開始看到未來幾個月這些增長的好處。我們還繼續採取其他非利率承銷行動。

So to break this impact down by line, in auto in addition to the overall 5.4% in rate actions in 2022, we now expect auto rates to increase by 18% to 20% over the next four quarters. As these rates earn in and bolstered by non-rate actions, this should result in an auto combined ratio improving steadily to reach 97% to 98% in 2024. We added a slide in the investor presentation to illustrate how we expect the impact of our rate increases to compound over the course of 2023. It’s worth noting that state approvals don’t adhere to a quarterly schedule, so there will be some fluidity between quarters, but we’re confident in the cumulative outcome of 18% to 20% country-wide rate impact implemented over the next four quarters.

因此，為了逐行分解這種影響，除了 2022 年總體 5.4% 的利率行動之外，我們現在預計汽車利率在未來四個季度將增長 18% 至 20%。由於這些利率在非利率行動中獲得收益並得到支持，這應該會導致汽車綜合成本率穩步提高，在 2024 年達到 97% 至 98%。我們在投資者介紹中添加了一張幻燈片，以說明我們如何預期我們的影響利率在 2023 年復合增長。值得注意的是，各州的批准並不遵循季度時間表，因此各季度之間會有一些流動性，但我們對 18 年的累積結果充滿信心% 到 20% 的全國利率影響在接下來的四個季度內實施。

In property, in addition to the overall 4.9% in rate actions taken in 2022, we expect rate actions in property of 12% to 15% over the next four quarters. When combined with the impact of inflation guard, these actions should results in average renewal premium increases of 17% to 20% in 2023. We expect property to generate an underwriting profit in 2023 and be at or near our target combined ratio of 92% to 93% in 2024 and beyond. We are managing these plans towards a segment combined ratio of 95% to 96% in 2024.

在房地產方面，除了 2022 年採取的整體 4.9% 的利率行動外，我們預計未來四個季度的房地產利率行動將在 12% 至 15% 之間。結合通脹警衛的影響，這些行動應該會導致 2023 年平均續保保費增加 17% 至 20%。我們預計財產將在 2023 年產生承保利潤，並達到或接近我們 92% 至 92% 的目標綜合比率2024 年及以後達到 93%。我們正在管理這些計劃，以期在 2024 年實現 95% 至 96% 的細分市場綜合比率。

We also are aware these actions may have an impact on retention; however, we suspect the impact will be relatively muted for two reasons. First, inflation is an industry-wide problem and our actions over 2022 and 2023 will be consistent with the industry over this period. Second, to many of our educator customers, we are more than an auto company. We help them plan for retirement, we help them manage their student loan debt, and we understand the issues they’re facing both in and out of the classroom.

我們也知道這些行為可能會影響留存率；但是，我們懷疑影響相對較小，原因有二。首先，通貨膨脹是一個全行業的問題，我們在 2022 年和 2023 年的行動將與這一時期的行業保持一致。其次，對於我們的許多教育客戶而言，我們不僅僅是一家汽車公司。我們幫助他們規劃退休，幫助他們管理學生貸款債務，我們了解他們在課堂內外面臨的問題。

Stepping back, if you recall a year ago, I spoke about how Horace Mann planned to leverage our leadership position in the education market going forward. We aligned our operations to maximize our potential to effectively respond to the needs of both educators and school districts. We said we were working to maximize the opportunity presented by our worksite division by bringing together the strength of Madison National’s group products and distribution relationships with the supplemental businesses, individual product strength, and customer-centric infrastructure we are delivering on that goal. 2022 worksite sales, including the employer-sponsored products added in the Madison National acquisition, increased more than twofold over 2021.

退一步說，如果你還記得一年前，我談到了 Horace Mann 計劃如何利用我們在未來教育市場的領導地位。我們調整了我們的運營，以最大限度地發揮我們的潛力，有效地響應教育工作者和學區的需求。我們說，我們正在努力通過將 Madison National 集團產品和分銷關係的實力與我們為實現該目標而提供的補充業務、個別產品實力和以客戶為中心的基礎設施相結合，從而最大限度地利用我們的工地部門提供的機會. 2022 年工地銷售額，包括在麥迪遜國家收購中增加的雇主贊助產品，比 2021 年增長了兩倍多。

The strength of their products and the opportunities of the expanded distribution continue to exceed our expectations. In addition, in the fourth quarter worksite direct supplemental sales were the strongest they have been since the beginning of the pandemic and they continued strong in January. In the retail side of the house, we plan to take advantage of industry dynamics to drive sales and to cross-sell existing customers. In both life and auto, we saw strong sales. Our inside sales team doubled their cross-sales of existing customers over 2021, including strong growth in our sales from service initiative which resulted in several thousand new sales over the course of the year. In addition, improved access to schools let us ramp up our agent recruiting, which has shown positive results. We achieved our target for new appointments and also added a strong cadre of new insurance specialists who can support an already in-place agent with a single product focus. The return to a solid agency pipeline that was interrupted by the pandemic is a positive indicator for 2023 and beyond.

他們產品的實力和擴大分銷的機會繼續超出我們的預期。此外，第四季度工地直接補充銷售是自大流行開始以來最強勁的，並且在 1 月份繼續保持強勁勢頭。在零售方面，我們計劃利用行業動態來推動銷售並交叉銷售現有客戶。在生活和汽車方面，我們都看到了強勁的銷售。我們的內部銷售團隊在 2021 年將現有客戶的交叉銷售額翻了一番，其中包括我們的服務計劃銷售額強勁增長，在這一年中帶來了數千筆新銷售額。此外，改善入學機會讓我們加大了代理人招聘力度，這已顯示出積極的成果。我們實現了新任命的目標，還增加了一支強大的新保險專家隊伍，他們可以以單一產品為重點支持已經就位的代理人。恢復被大流行中斷的穩固代理管道是 2023 年及以後的一個積極指標。

Finally, we have seen the strength of our earnings and revenue diversification strategy firsthand in 2022. I don’t want to dismiss the impact of P&C short term volatility on the business, but it is manageable. In addition, we continue to evaluate ways to mitigate volatility while still retaining educator households, such as expanding the use of third party carriers. The strength and value of our multi-line offerings for our niche market will last far beyond these loss cost trends stabilizing.

最後，我們在 2022 年親眼目睹了我們的收益和收入多元化戰略的實力。我不想忽視 P&C 短期波動對業務的影響，但這是可控的。此外，我們繼續評估在保留教育家庭的同時減輕波動的方法，例如擴大第三方運營商的使用。我們為我們的利基市場提供的多線產品的實力和價值將遠遠超過這些損失成本趨勢的穩定。

To sum it up, our focus has never wavered. We want to be the provider of choice for the education market and we want to provide our shareholders with a sustained double-digit return on equity. Those two goals have to be achieved together, and that is what we are working towards in 2023. Before I turn the call over to Bret, I have two corporate updates to share. First, I’d like to congratulate Ryan Greenier on his recent promotion to Deputy Chief Financial Officer to work with Bret to further build out our strategic finance function and to support initiatives underway across the company. Ryan will continue to serve as our Chief Investment Officer.

總而言之，我們的重點從未動搖過。我們希望成為教育市場的首選供應商，我們希望為我們的股東提供持續的兩位數股本回報率。這兩個目標必須一起實現，這就是我們在 2023 年努力實現的目標。在我將電話轉給布雷特之前，我有兩個公司更新要分享。首先，我要祝賀 Ryan Greenier 最近晉升為副首席財務官，與 Bret 合作進一步建立我們的戰略財務職能並支持全公司正在進行的計劃。 Ryan 將繼續擔任我們的首席投資官。

Second, I want to note Horace Mann’s inclusion in the 2023 Bloomberg Gender Equality Index, which recognizes corporate commitment to gender equality and transparency in gender data reporting. Horace Mann has been included in the index since its inception in 2019. The reference index measures gender equality across five pillars: leadership and talent pipeline, equal pay and gender pay parity, inclusive culture, anti-sexual harassment policies, and external brand. At Horace Mann, we strive to nurture an inclusive corporate culture where every employee feels heard, respected and appreciated. We are proud to be recognized for this commitment to diversity, equity and inclusion for the fifth consecutive year.

其次，我想指出 Horace Mann 被納入 2023 年彭博社性別平等指數，該指數認可企業對性別平等和性別數據報告透明度的承諾。自該指數於 2019 年推出以來，Horace Mann 一直被納入該指數。該參考指數通過五個支柱衡量性別平等：領導力和人才管道、同工同酬和性別薪酬平等、包容性文化、反性騷擾政策和外部品牌。在 Horace Mann，我們努力培養一種包容的企業文化，讓每位員工都感到被傾聽、受到尊重和讚賞。我們很自豪連續第五年因對多元化、公平和包容的承諾而獲得認可。

Thank you, and with that, I’ll turn the call over to Bret.

謝謝，有了這個，我會把電話轉給布雷特。

Thanks everyone for joining our call today. Marita gave a thorough summary of the challenges of 2022 and what we are looking forward to achieving in 2023 and beyond, so let me go right into the details by segment, starting with P&C. The loss for the P&C segment for the quarter and the year was in line with our preliminary announcement and largely due to the impact of inflation on loss cost. In addition, net investment income for P&C reflected a total limited partnership return of 7.9% compared to 20.3% in 2021. This year, the contribution from LPs in this segment began trending upward in the third and fourth quarters, in line with the overall recovery in this sector.

感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。 Marita 全面總結了 2022 年的挑戰以及我們期待在 2023 年及以後實現的目標，所以讓我從 P&C 開始逐個細分細節。本季度和年度財產險部門的虧損與我們的初步公告一致，主要是由於通貨膨脹對損失成本的影響。此外，財產險的淨投資收益反映出有限合夥企業的總回報率為 7.9%，而 2021 年為 20.3%。今年，有限合夥人對該領域的貢獻在第三和第四季度開始呈上升趨勢，與整體復甦一致在這個領域。

Turning to the underwriting results, total written premiums rose 4.7% this quarter compared with last quarter’s 1.6% increase as we begin to see the benefits of the rate actions that have been implemented to date. Retention remained very strong, rising for both auto and property with strong auto sales coming largely from states where we’re most confident in the outlook for pricing. I’ll address the auto and property books in a moment, but we will certainly see the growth rate in total written premiums accelerate over 2023 and 2024 with earned premium growth following.

談到承保業績，本季度總承保保費增長 4.7%，而上一季度增長 1.6%，因為我們開始看到迄今已實施的費率行動的好處。保留率仍然非常高，汽車和房地產的保留率都在上升，強勁的汽車銷售主要來自我們對定價前景最有信心的州。我稍後會談到汽車和財產賬簿，但我們肯定會看到總承保保費的增長率在 2023 年和 2024 年加速，隨之而來的是已賺保費增長。

Full year cat losses contributed 13 points to this year’s combined ratio versus 12.7 points in 2021. Fourth quarter cat losses included Winter Storm Elliot, which spanned more than 30 states. For our 2023 guidance, our cat loss assumption equals about 10 points on the full year combined ratio - that’s our 10-year average, which aligns with the calculation based on historical frequency and a modeled increase in severities due to inflation, partially offset by a model decrease in exposures. In the investor presentation, we have provided details of our January 1 cat tree renewal. We increased our retention to 30 million from 25 million, the first time we’ve raised retention since 2011 and our share of the lowest layer is higher. These changes recognize the impact of rising severity on cat costs as well as the harder reinsurance market.

全年巨災損失對今年的綜合比率貢獻了 13 個百分點，而 2021 年為 12.7 個百分點。第四季度巨災損失包括橫跨 30 多個州的冬季風暴埃利奧特。對於我們的 2023 年指導，我們的巨災損失假設相當於全年綜合比率的 10 個百分點左右——這是我們的 10 年平均值，這與基於歷史頻率的計算結果以及因通貨膨脹導致的嚴重程度增加的模型一致，部分被暴露的模型減少所抵消。在投資者介紹中，我們提供了 1 月 1 日貓樹更新的詳細信息。我們將留存率從 2500 萬增加到 3000 萬，這是我們自 2011 年以來首次提高留存率，我們在最低層的份額更高。這些變化承認嚴重程度上升對巨災成本的影響以及更艱難的再保險市場。

For 2023, our reinsurance costs will be up about $2 million or about 30 basis points on the combined ratio. Turning to property, the year-over-year increase in average written premiums reached 10.1% in the fourth quarter. 2022 rate increases country-wide were 4.9%, bolstered by inflation adjustments to coverage values over the course of the year. The full year property underlying loss ratio was 50.1%. Both frequency and inflation-driven severity of non-cat water and fire losses were above 2021 levels. Our underwriting teams review every large fire loss, and there is no apparent pattern or underwriting concern in those losses. The full year property loss ratio benefited from $6 million in favorable prior year reserve development.

到 2023 年，我們的再保險成本將增加約 200 萬美元或綜合比率約 30 個基點。財產方面，第四季度平均承保保費同比增長 10.1%。 2022 年全國范圍內的利率增長率為 4.9%，這得益於全年對覆蓋值進行的通貨膨脹調整。全年財產基礎損失率為50.1%。非巨災水災和火災損失的頻率和由通貨膨脹驅動的嚴重程度均高於 2021 年的水平。我們的承保團隊審查了每一個大型火災損失，並且在這些損失中沒有明顯的模式或承保問題。全年財產損失率受益於 600 萬美元的有利前一年儲備開發。

Our 2023 rate plan for property adds another 12% to 15% over the next four quarters on top of another year of inflation guard increases that keep coverage values updated. These will combine for an impact of 17% to 20% in 2023, which should result in underwriting profit in 2023 and getting us back to our targeted 92% to 93% combined ratio in 2024. Turning to auto, the year-over-year increase in average written premiums was 4.8% in the fourth quarter. Rate actions averaged 5.4% country-wide in 2022. Underlying loss costs reflected inflation that drove substantially higher severity, while frequency remained somewhat below pre-pandemic levels, although above what we experienced in 2020 during the height of the pandemic.

我們的 2023 年房地產利率計劃在接下來的四個季度中再增加 12% 至 15%，再加上一年的通脹保護措施增加，以保持覆蓋價值的更新。這些將在 2023 年產生 17% 至 20% 的影響，這將導致 2023 年的承保利潤，並使我們在 2024 年回到我們的目標 92% 至 93% 的綜合比率。轉向汽車，同比第四季度平均承保保費增長 4.8%。 2022 年全國利率行動平均為 5.4%。潛在損失成本反映了通貨膨脹導致嚴重程度大幅上升，而頻率仍略低於大流行前水平，儘管高於 2020 年大流行高峰期的水平。

Recognizing the impact on severity of overall inflation, including more severe accidents, higher medical costs, increased usage of medical services, and the current legal environment, the full year auto loss ratio included $28 million in unfavorable prior year reserve development largely for accident year 2021. The auto rate plan for 2023 is targeting rate increases of 18% to 20% over the next four quarters. Bolstered by non-rate actions, this should lead to an auto combined ratio between 106 and 107 in 2023 and near our target level of 97% to 98% in 2024. Taking into account the various factors, P&C segment core earnings are expected to be between $5 million and $10 million in 2023, reflecting a combined ratio in the range of 104 to 105, including 10 points from cat losses. In 2024, we should be near our longer term combined ratio for the segment of 95% to 96%.

認識到對整體通貨膨脹嚴重程度的影響，包括更嚴重的事故、更高的醫療費用、醫療服務的使用增加以及當前的法律環境，全年汽車損失率包括 2800 萬美元的不利前一年準備金開發，主要用於事故年 2021 . 2023 年汽車利率計劃的目標是在未來四個季度內將利率提高 18% 至 20%。在非利率行動的推動下，這應該會導致 2023 年汽車綜合成本率在 106 至 107 之間，並接近我們 2024 年 97% 至 98% 的目標水平。考慮到各種因素，財產和意外險部門的核心收益預計為2023 年在 500 萬到 1000 萬美元之間，綜合比率在 104 到 105 之間，包括巨災損失的 10 個百分點。到 2024 年，我們應該接近 95% 至 96% 的細分市場的長期綜合比率。

Turning to life and retirement, the segment performed largely as expected in the fourth quarter with adjusted core earnings for the year at the high end of the range we guided to at the midyear. For the segment, full year limited partnership returns were below historical average compared to the unusually high returns seen in 2021. In addition, commercial mortgage loan portfolio returns declined in 2022 due to rising interest rates. The net interest spread on our fixed annuity business was 246 BPs in 2022 compared to 290 BPs in 2021, remaining comfortably above our threshold to achieve a double-digit ROE in this business. Looking to 2023, we expect the spread on our fixed annuity business to be lower but still above our threshold in the range of 220 to 230 BPs.

談到人壽和退休，該部門在第四季度的表現基本符合預期，調整後的年度核心收益處於我們年中指導範圍的高端。對於該細分市場，與 2021 年異常高的回報率相比，全年有限合夥回報率低於歷史平均水平。此外，由於利率上升，商業抵押貸款組合回報率在 2022 年有所下降。我們固定年金業務的淨利差在 2022 年為 246 個基點，而 2021 年為 290 個基點，仍然輕鬆高於我們在該業務中實現兩位數 ROE 的門檻。展望 2023 年，我們預計固定年金業務的息差會更低，但仍高於我們 220 至 230 個基點範圍內的門檻。

For the retirement business, net annuity contract deposits were $429 million for the year and $105 million for the fourth quarter, with cash value persistency strong at 93.7%. We had another good quarter for Retirement Advantage, the fee-based mutual fund platform that we believe creates long term opportunity for this business segment. Life annualized sales rose 6.9% year-over-year with persistency remaining strong and mortality experience improving from 2021. We continue to look for life sales as a way to initiate educator relationships and we are very pleased with 2022 results.

對於退休業務，全年淨年金合同存款為 4.29 億美元，第四季度為 1.05 億美元，現金價值持續率高達 93.7%。我們的 Retirement Advantage 又迎來了一個不錯的季度，我們認為收費共同基金平台為該業務部門創造了長期機會。人壽年化銷售額同比增長 6.9%，堅持不懈，死亡率從 2021 年開始有所改善。我們繼續尋找人壽銷售作為建立教育者關係的一種方式，我們對 2022 年的結果感到非常滿意。

In total, life and retirement core earnings are expected to be between $67 million to $70 million in 2023. When thinking about the outlook for this segment, it’s useful to recall that this segment will see an impact from the adoption of LDTI. Now let me turn to the supplemental and group benefits segment, where full year core earnings of $59 million were at the high end of our guided range. After one year with Madison National’s results contributing, we couldn’t be more pleased with the performance of this segment and the revenue and earnings diversification it brings to Horace Mann.

總體而言，到 2023 年，人壽和退休核心收入預計將在 6700 萬美元至 7000 萬美元之間。在考慮該細分市場的前景時，回顧一下該細分市場將受到採用 LDTI 的影響是很有用的。現在讓我轉向補充和團體福利部分，其中 5900 萬美元的全年核心收益處於我們指導範圍的高端。在 Madison National 做出貢獻一年後，我們對這個部門的表現以及它為 Horace Mann 帶來的收入和收益多元化感到非常滿意。

For the segment, full year premiums and contract charges earned were $276 million, of which employer sponsored products represented $154 million. Segment sales of $16.1 million for the year reflected the steady return to pre-pandemic sales in our worksite direct business, the supplemental products acquired in the NTA transaction in 2019, plus the first year sales for Horace Mann of Madison National’s employer sponsored products.

對於該部門，全年保費和合同費用收入為 2.76 億美元，其中雇主贊助的產品為 1.54 億美元。本年度分部銷售額為 1,610 萬美元，這反映了我們工地直銷業務穩步恢復到大流行前的銷售額、2019 年 NTA 交易中收購的補充產品，以及麥迪遜國家雇主贊助的 Horace Mann 的第一年銷售額產品。

Benefits and expenses for the quarter were in line with the third quarter and below the seasonally higher first and second quarters. We also benefited in the fourth quarter from the release of reserves from accounts related to lapsed policies. Looking at 2023, we expect core earnings to be between $40 million to $44 million. The comparison to 2022 is being affected by several factors. First, the blended benefit ratio is expected to be near our long term target of 43% compared with 36.7% in 2022. About half of the anticipated change in the ratio reflects our expectation that utilization will continue to move towards pre-pandemic levels. In addition, there were several one-time favorable reserve impacts in 2022 that we do not expect will recur.

本季度的福利和支出與第三季度持平，但低於季節性較高的第一季度和第二季度。我們在第四季度還受益於與失效保單相關的賬戶準備金的釋放。展望 2023 年，我們預計核心收益將在 4000 萬至 4400 萬美元之間。與 2022 年的比較受到幾個因素的影響。首先，混合收益比率預計將接近我們 43% 的長期目標，而 2022 年為 36.7%。該比率的預期變化中約有一半反映了我們對利用率將繼續向大流行前水平移動的預期。此外，我們預計 2022 年不會再次出現一些一次性的有利儲備影響。

Further, due to our seasonality, the first quarter blended benefit ratio typically may be in the range of 45% to 47%. And that’s a good opportunity to reiterate that seasonality will become a permanent fixture of this segment for benefits and expenses, but also for sales, so the first quarter can be expected to be the highest sales quarter for employer sponsored products but also the lowest earnings quarter. This reflects a benefit ratio for the employer sponsored products expected to be its highest in the first quarter due to the timing of benefit utilization in our market. The benefit margin for employer sponsored products should typically be at its lowest in the third and fourth.

此外，由於我們的季節性，第一季度的混合收益比率通常可能在 45% 至 47% 的範圍內。這是重申季節性將成為該部分福利和支出以及銷售的永久固定因素的好機會，因此預計第一季度將是雇主贊助產品的最高銷售季度，但也是最低的收益季度。這反映了由於我們市場福利利用的時機，雇主贊助產品的福利比率預計將在第一季度達到最高水平。雇主贊助產品的利潤率通常應在第三和第四位最低。

In addition, the pre-tax profit margin in 2023 will reflect the investment we’re making in infrastructure for this business, as well as a higher allocation of corporate expenses to reflect the segment’s utilization of shared staff, distribution and other resources. As a result, the expense ratio is expected to rise to the range of 37% to 38% in 2023 and beyond.

此外，2023 年的稅前利潤率將反映我們對該業務基礎設施的投資，以及更高的公司支出分配，以反映該部門對共享員工、分銷和其他方面的利用資源。因此，費用率預計將在 2023 年及以後上升至 37% 至 38% 的範圍。

Before I turn to investments, I want to give an update on LDTI, beginning with a reminder that the standard does not change long term earnings, underlying economics, or cash flows. Furthermore, it has no impact on statutory accounting; however, for the impacted businesses, it does require cash flow assumptions underlying policy reserves to be reviewed and updated, and those reserves to be revalued using current discount rates. As we said in August and covered in detail in the 10-Qs for the second and third quarters, when we adopt the standard effective January 1, 2023, the transition impact on reported GAAP book value will fall largely in three areas: one, an increase in the liability for future policyholder benefits largely due to changes in discount rate assumptions; two, a new benefit liability to be called market risk benefits; and three, elimination of the shadow DAC equity adjustment.

在我轉向投資之前，我想介紹一下 LDTI 的最新情況，首先提醒一下，該標準不會改變長期收益、基礎經濟或現金流量。此外，它對法定會計沒有影響；但是，對於受影響的企業，確實需要審查和更新作為政策準備金基礎的現金流量假設，並使用當前貼現率對這些準備金進行重估。正如我們在 8 月份所說並在第二季度和第三季度的 10-Q 中詳細介紹的那樣，當我們採用 2023 年 1 月 1 日生效的標準時，過渡對報告的 GAAP 賬面價值的影響將主要集中在三個方面：一，未來保單持有人福利的負債增加主要是由於貼現率假設的變化；二、新的收益負債稱為市場風險收益；三、剔除影子DAC股權調整。

As a reminder, most of the transition adjustment to shareholders equity that we’ll record as of January 1, 2023 has been recouped due to the effect on the discount rate of interest rate increases. After adopting LDTI, we plan to continue to provide an adjusted shareholders equity that excludes these adjustments, as well as unrealized gains. In addition, the transition will result in a restatement of net income for the years ending 2021 and 2022 to make those results comparable with 2023 following adoption. We’re planning to share those recast values in March.

提醒一下，由於加息對貼現率的影響，我們將在 2023 年 1 月 1 日記錄的股東權益的大部分過渡調整已被收回。採用 LDTI 後，我們計劃繼續提供不包括這些調整的調整後股東權益，以及未實現的收益。此外，過渡將導致重述截至 2021 年和 2022 年的淨收入，以使這些結果與採用後的 2023 年具有可比性。我們計劃在 3 月份分享這些重鑄的價值觀。

Full year net investment income and net investment income on the managed portfolio was in line with guidance, with limited partnership returns back in line with historical averages. The Fed’s actions on interest rates pressures limited partnership returns, particularly in the private equity portfolio during 2022. Investment yield on the portfolio excluding limited partnership interest remained near 4.25% with new money yields continuing to exceed portfolio yields in the core fixed maturity securities portfolio. The A+ rated core portfolio is primarily invested in investment-grade corporates, municipal and highly liquid agency, and agency MBS securities, positioning us well for a recessionary environment later in 2023.

全年淨投資收益和管理投資組合的淨投資收益符合指引，有限合夥回報率回到歷史平均水平。美聯儲的利率行動對有限合夥企業的回報造成壓力，尤其是在 2022 年的私募股權投資組合中。不包括有限合夥企業利息的投資組合的投資收益率保持在 4.25% 附近，新貨幣收益率繼續超過核心固定期限的投資組合收益率證券投資組合。 A+ 評級的核心投資組合主要投資於投資級企業、市政和高流動性機構以及機構 MBS 證券，使我們在 2023 年晚些時候的衰退環境中處於有利地位。

The realized losses we incurred over the course of 2022 were due to portfolio repositioning to improve book yield and exit positions in the portfolio that are more risky in terms of default and downgrade risk. Due to the significant rise in interest rates, unrealized losses on the portfolio have risen to $572 million. Changes in unrealized gains and losses do not affect statutory capital or our view of the high quality securities that make up our core portfolio.

我們在 2022 年期間發生的已實現損失是由於投資組合重新定位以提高賬面收益率和投資組合中的退出頭寸，這些頭寸在違約和降級風險方面風險更大。由於利率大幅上升，投資組合的未實現虧損已增至 5.72 億美元。未實現損益的變化不會影響法定資本或我們對構成我們核心投資組合的優質證券的看法。

We expect net investment income on the managed portfolio will rise to the range of $330 million to $340 million in 2023, reflecting stronger returns from our commercial mortgage loan portfolio as well as the benefits of the rising rate environment over the past 12 months. We assume limited partnership returns will be close to their 10-year average. Our guidance for total 2023 net investment income reflects approximately $26 million quarterly from the deposit asset on reinsurance.

我們預計到 2023 年，管理投資組合的淨投資收益將增至 3.3 億美元至 3.4 億美元，反映出我們商業抵押貸款投資組合的更高回報以及過去 12 個月利率上升環境帶來的好處。我們假設有限合夥回報將接近其 10 年平均水平。我們對 2023 年總淨投資收入的指導反映了再保險存款資產每季度約 2600 萬美元。

In closing, 2022 was clearly a challenging year for Horace Mann as external factors detracted from the progress we are making to leverage the stronger and more diverse organization that Horace Mann has become. We remain confident that the growth we anticipate over the next several years will lead to an increasing share of the education market, putting us back on the trajectory to a sustainable double-digit ROE. As we return to our longer term profitability targets in the P&C segment, we estimate 2023 core EPS will be in the range of $2 to $2.30. As Marita detailed, in 2024 we believe we will return to a double-digit ROE with core EPS approaching $4.

最後，2022 年對 Horace Mann 來說顯然是充滿挑戰的一年，因為外部因素削弱了我們為利用 Horace Mann 變得更強大、更多元化的組織而取得的進展。我們仍然相信，我們預計未來幾年的增長將導致教育市場份額的增加，使我們回到可持續的兩位數 ROE 的軌道上。隨著我們回到財產和意外險領域的長期盈利目標，我們估計 2023 年核心每股收益將在 2 美元至 2.30 美元之間。正如 Marita 所詳述的那樣，我們相信到 2024 年我們將恢復到兩位數的 ROE，核心 EPS 接近 4 美元。

Our life, retirement, and supplemental and group benefits segments are a stable source of earnings and capital, which clearly mitigates the volatility of the P&C segment. When we have returned to our targeted profitability across the businesses, the business is fully capable of generating approximately $50 million in excess capital above what we pay in shareholder dividends. Our priority for excess capital will remain growth; however, we are committed to using available excess capital for steady shareholder dividend increases and opportunistic share repurchases while maintaining our financial leverage and capital ratios at levels appropriate for our current financial strength ratings.

我們的人壽、退休、補充和團體福利部門是收入和資本的穩定來源，這明顯減輕了財產和意外險部門的波動性。當我們的業務恢復到我們的目標盈利能力時，該業務完全有能力產生大約 5000 萬美元的超額資本，超出我們支付的股東股息。我們對過剩資本的優先考慮仍然是增長；但是，我們致力於將可用的過剩資本用於穩定的股東股息增長和機會性股票回購，同時將我們的財務槓桿和資本比率維持在適合我們當前財務實力評級的水平。

Of note, we repurchased approximately 69,000 shares in late January and early February for a total of $2.3 million. In 2023, our diversified business model will be key in getting us quickly back on our trajectory towards those objectives focused on providing strong returns to shareholders. Thank you, and with that, I’ll turn it back to Heather.

值得注意的是，我們在 1 月底和 2 月初回購了大約 69,000 股股票，總計 230 萬美元。到 2023 年，我們的多元化業務模式將成為讓我們迅速回到專注於為股東提供豐厚回報的目標軌道上的關鍵。謝謝，有了這個，我會把它轉回希瑟。

Thank you. Operator, we’re ready for questions.

謝謝。接線員，我們準備好提問了。

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Greg Peters with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

謝謝。我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自格雷格·彼得斯和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。請繼續。

This is Sid on for Greg. Just wanted to touch on the personal auto side of things. Starting to see used car prices come down a little bit, and understand it’s just a portion of loss trends, but maybe you can comment on if you’re expecting to see any moderation in severity through 2023 and if that’s baked into the 106 to 107 auto combined ratio or if that’s just rate increases and underwriting actions getting you to that.

這是 Greg 的席德。只是想談談個人汽車方面的事情。開始看到二手車價格略有下降，並了解這只是損失趨勢的一部分，但也許您可以評論一下您是否期望在 2023 年之前看到嚴重程度有所緩和，如果那是它被納入 106 至 107 的汽車綜合比率，或者如果這只是利率增加和承保行動讓您達到這一點。

Sure, this is Mark. I think as we’ve gone through the pandemic, it’s been quite a challenge to project loss cost trends, both for Horace Mann and the industry. We saw quite an unprecedented level of frequency drop at the height of the pandemic, but as we’ve all seen, quickly followed by inflation that we haven’t seen in probably three to four decades at the same time, with frequency starting to increase back towards pre-pandemic levels.

當然，這是馬克。我認為，隨著我們經歷了這場大流行病，預測損失成本趨勢對 Horace Mann 和整個行業來說都是一個相當大的挑戰。在大流行最嚴重的時候，我們看到了前所未有的頻率下降，但正如我們所看到的，緊隨其後的是通貨膨脹，這在同一時間可能是三到四十年都沒有見過，頻率開始上升恢復到大流行前的水平。

With that being said, we have seen some moderation on the physical damage side of things when we compare the first half of the year to the second half of the year, but those trends still remain above what I would view as kind of the long term historical levels, and our expectation going into 2023 is that they will continue to moderate but remain above the historical levels, which is why we’ve focused a lot of our activity on the rate actions that both Marita and Bret described, and we have a slide in our investor deck on Page 14 which lays out how we think rate’s going to flow in country-wide throughout 2023, which is going to produce about an overall 18% to 20% increase throughout 2023, and that’s on top of the 5.4% that we raised rates during 2022.

話雖如此，當我們將今年上半年與下半年進行比較時，我們發現物理損壞方面有所緩和，但這些趨勢仍高於我認為的長期趨勢歷史水平，我們預計到 2023 年它們將繼續放緩但仍高於歷史水平，這就是為什麼我們將大量活動集中在 Marita 和 Bret 所描述的利率行動上，我們有我們第 14 頁的投資者平台上的一張幻燈片展示了我們認為利率將如何在整個 2023 年在全國范圍內流動，這將在整個 2023 年產生大約 18% 到 20% 的整體增長，這就是這是我們在 2022 年提高利率的 5.4% 之上的。

In addition, I would comment on additional non-rate actions that we’re taking, whether it be discount verification, mileage verification programs, more aggressive new and renewal underwriting, as well as some actions we’re taking in claims to ensure that we’re utilizing our internal staff and our preferred shops to adjust physical damage claims to get the best possible outcomes.

此外，我會評論我們正在採取的其他非費率行動，無論是折扣驗證、里程驗證計劃、更積極的新承保和續簽承保，以及我們在索賠中採取的一些行動，以確保我們正在利用我們的內部員工和我們首選的商店來調整物理損壞索賠，以獲得最佳結果。

Yes, and specifically to your question on used car prices, Mark's pricing models, the team’s setting of picks for our coming year would include their anticipated number around used car pricing. It bounced a lot during the two years of the pandemic, and certainly last year as well. Information is readily available and we use that in our pricing models, for sure.

是的，特別是關於二手車價格的問題，Mark 的定價模型，團隊對我們來年的選擇設置將包括他們對二手車定價的預期數量。在大流行的兩年裡，它反彈了很多，當然去年也是如此。信息很容易獲得，我們肯定會在我們的定價模型中使用這些信息。

Our next question comes from John Barnidge with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 John Barnidge 和 Piper Sandler。

In your prepared remarks, you talked about utilizing third party partners more for P&C. How could this look, and maybe how material of the in-force could it impact?

在您準備好的發言中，您談到了更多地利用第三方合作夥伴進行 P&C。這看起來如何，也許它會對生效的材料產生怎樣的影響？

Yes John, hi. Good question. I can turn it over to Mark for some of the specifics, but just very high level, if you remember several years ago, not too long after I joined the company, we started a concept called the Horace Mann general agency, and that concept was really around the theory that it didn’t make any sense for us to say no to an educator, for example if they had an antique car, if they had a summer cupcake business and needed a BOP policy. If they were a non-standard auto customer, if it really wasn’t within the conservative and tight underwriting framework of a Horace Mann, we could rely on other carriers and still keep the customer within the Horace Mann family, especially as it related to P&C, because as we say over and over again, we’re not just a P&C company, we’re an educator company. So if the independent agent that we would send them to by saying no is any good, that independent agent is going to say, when was the last time somebody asked you about your life insurance, can I help you with an umbrella policy, or whatever the case may be.

是的，約翰，嗨。好問題。我可以將一些細節交給馬克，但只是非常高的水平，如果你還記得幾年前，在我加入公司後不久，我們開始了一個名為 Horace Mann general agency 的概念，那個概念是真正圍繞這樣一個理論，即我們對教育者說不沒有任何意義，例如，如果他們有一輛古董車，如果他們有夏季紙杯蛋糕業務並且需要 BOP 政策。如果他們是非標準汽車客戶，如果它真的不在 Horace Mann 保守和嚴格的承保框架內，我們可以依靠其他承運人並仍然將客戶留在 Horace Mann 家族中，尤其是當它與對於 P&C，因為正如我們一遍又一遍地說的那樣，我們不僅僅是一家 P&C 公司，我們還是一家教育公司。因此，如果我們通過拒絕將他們發送給的獨立代理人有任何好處，那麼該獨立代理人會說，上次有人問你關於你的人壽保險是什麼時候，我可以幫助你制定保護傘政策，或者其他什麼情況可能是這樣。

That early concept got us to a pretty decent size of premium with third party carriers. We leverage a lot of carriers, whether it’s high valued home, whether it’s non-standard auto, and that worked well for us. The concept has broadened a little bit as we think about is there a way in which we can broaden that in these types of environments when even a standard customer might be a customer that, for whatever reason in a given state, call it scale - you know, we use the example of Rhode Island. When you’re writing K through 12 public educators in the State of Rhode Island, that’s not a large set of customers, would we be better off relying on industry data and companies that have bigger scale in that state rather than doing it ourselves.

那個早期的概念讓我們與第三方運營商的溢價相當可觀。我們利用了很多承運人，無論是高價值的房屋，還是非標準汽車，這對我們來說效果很好。這個概念已經擴大了一點，因為我們考慮是否有一種方法可以在這些類型的環境中擴大它，即使是標準客戶也可能是客戶，無論出於何種原因，在給定狀態下，都稱其為規模 - 你知道，我們用羅德島的例子。當您通過羅德島州的 12 位公共教育工作者編寫 K 時，那不是一大群客戶，我們最好依靠行業數據和在該州規模更大的公司而不是做我們自己。

So it really is broadening the concept that we originally had and have done quite successfully to maybe have a larger share of fee income, where we’re not taking underwriting risk but have the ability to be Horace Mann first when it makes sense to be Horace Mann first.

因此，它確實拓寬了我們最初擁有並且已經做得非常成功的概念，可能會獲得更大份額的費用收入，在這種情況下我們不承擔承保風險，但有能力在合理的情況下首先成為 Horace Mann首先是賀拉斯·曼。

That's very helpful. Thank you.

這很有幫助。謝謝。

Do you have anything to add to that, Mark?

馬克，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, the only thing I would add is I think there is opportunities, for instance when we’re taking underwriting actions, like we have a standard practice now, if we’re going to take underwriting action on a particular risk, right, we’re going to look to those third parties automatically rather than just sending the customer off on their own, especially in a tough environment on the property side, where it may be a challenge for them to find other coverage. I think there’s going to be, to Marita’s point, increased opportunities where places we’re pushing a lot of rate, that if we’re risking losing that customer, there may be an opportunity for us to keep that customer in the fold by leveraging our third parties.

是的，我唯一要補充的是我認為有機會，例如當我們採取承保行動時，就像我們現在有標準做法一樣，如果我們要對特定風險採取承保行動，對吧，我們將自動尋找這些第三方，而不是僅僅讓客戶自己離開，尤其是在物業方面的艱難環境中，他們可能很難找到其他承保範圍。我認為，就 Marita 的觀點而言，我們正在大力推動的地方會有更多的機會，如果我們冒著失去該客戶的風險，我們可能有機會通過利用我們的第三方來保持該客戶。

 And what we’ve learned with some good partner carriers is the ability to bring that customer back to Horace Mann, when and if that makes sense. We’ve had a lot of flexibility to do that because we’re doing this with a limited number of strategic partners. I’d say with improved process and the improved technology that comes with it, we believe we can probably by the end of next year begin to see a lot more scale than how we had attempted to do this in the early years. Think about if an agent had a customer, they’re going to an internal contact center, they’re working with our internal people, our internal people are placing that with another carrier. If we have better process and better technology, and we can do that with a smart algorithm and straight through processing, it becomes much easier to scale what I think was a good strategic start to this thought process.

並且我們從一些優秀的合作夥伴航空公司那裡學到的是能夠在合理的時候將客戶帶回 Horace Mann。我們有很大的靈活性來做到這一點，因為我們正在與數量有限的戰略合作夥伴一起做這件事。我想說，隨著改進的流程和隨之而來的改進技術，我們相信到明年年底，我們可能會開始看到比我們在早年嘗試這樣做的方式更大的規模。想想如果代理有客戶，他們會去內部聯絡中心，他們正在與我們的內部人員合作，我們的內部人員正在將客戶交給另一家運營商。如果我們有更好的流程和更好的技術，並且我們可以使用智能算法和直接處理來做到這一點，那麼擴展我認為是這個思維過程的良好戰略開端就會變得容易得多。

 Thank you very much. A follow-up question, other companies have done voluntary retirements or workforce reductions given declines in fees on assets in some of their more AUM-sensitive businesses. Has that been completed, or are there thoughts for that?Â

非常感謝。一個後續問題，其他公司已經自願退休或裁員，因為他們的一些對 AUM 更敏感的業務的資產費用下降。已經完成了嗎，或者有什麼想法嗎？

You mean for Horace Mann employees?

你是說 Horace Mann 的員工？

Yes, with markets lower, assets lower as a result, fees on assets can be impacted by that.

是的，隨著市場走低，資產也隨之走低，資產費用可能會受到影響。

Yes, first what I would say is from an overall retirement standpoint, we had a very strong year last year. I think the nature of our customers again, we can say what we always say, insulated but not immune. If you’re asking the broader expense question as it relates to staffing and expenses, our plan remains relatively flat for expenses. We look at it, we focus on it, we’ll be thoughtful around it. We’ve got decent growth in our plan, but we set an expense target in P&C and are very clear about that target, and we’ll remain disciplined around expenses, as we always have. Bret, I don’t know if you want to--

是的，首先我要說的是從整體退休的角度來看，去年我們表現非常強勁。我再次認為我們客戶的本性，我們可以說我們總是說的話，絕緣但不能免疫。如果您問的是與人員配置和費用相關的更廣泛的費用問題，我們的費用計劃仍然相對持平。我們審視它，我們專注於它，我們會圍繞它深思熟慮。我們的計劃取得了可觀的增長，但我們在 P&C 中設定了支出目標，並且對該目標非常清楚，我們將一如既往地在支出方面保持紀律。布雷特，我不知道你是否想——

Yes, just to add a couple comments, John. To Marita’s point, the L&R segment is actually--we even provided the guidance between the $67 million to $70 million, which has certainly increased significantly from the ’22 actual. And to Marita’s comment about managing expenses, certainly that’s something we pride ourselves on here as well as doing strategic spend with some of the growth initiatives we’ve been talking about for the last couple years. We typically target a percentage of total revenues with respect to expenses, and that actually is remaining around 28% between both our plan for ’22-- for ’23 and what the actual percentage was in ’22.

是的，John，只是添加一些評論。就 Marita 的觀點而言，L&R 部分實際上是——我們甚至提供了 6700 萬美元到 7000 萬美元之間的指導，這肯定比 22 年的實際值有了顯著增加。對於 Marita 關於管理費用的評論，這當然是我們在這裡引以為豪的事情，也是我們過去幾年一直在談論的一些增長計劃的戰略支出。我們通常將總收入的百分比作為支出的目標，實際上，我們在 22 年和 23 年的計劃與 22 年的實際百分比之間保持在 28% 左右。

Yes, I mean, because of our size, we have to, and it makes sense to remain disciplined on overall expenses. We learned a lot as far as efficiency during the pandemic and didn’t run back to the way we always did things, and I think that’s really helpful for us to employ those learnings as far as how we interact with folks in the place, how we interact with our agents, how our agents do business, as well as lot of the major technology initiatives that we’ve funded for over the last three to five years, and those are starting to come through. I mean, building those products but also building the pipes for growth so that as this growth begins to build and we’re confident in that, we actually have the pipes that can handle it.

是的，我的意思是，由於我們的規模，我們必須這樣做，而且在總體開支方面保持紀律是有道理的。就大流行期間的效率而言，我們學到了很多東西，並沒有回到我們一貫做事的方式，我認為這對我們在如何與人們互動方面運用這些知識真的很有幫助地點，我們如何與代理商互動，我們的代理商如何開展業務，以及我們在過去三到五年中資助的許多重大技術計劃，這些計劃正在開始實施。我的意思是，在構建這些產品的同時也構建了增長的管道，以便隨著這種增長開始建立並且我們對此充滿信心，我們實際上擁有可以處理它的管道。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Derek Han with KBW.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Derek Han。

My first question is on the supplemental and group benefit segment. Can you talk a little bit more about the infrastructure investments that you’re making, and just curious how you’re thinking about how these investments are going to contribute maybe through cross-sales or maybe better efficiency.

我的第一個問題是關於補充和團體福利部分。你能多談談你正在進行的基礎設施投資嗎？只是想知道你是如何考慮這些投資將如何通過交叉銷售或提高效率做出貢獻的。

Hey Matt, I think it would be a great opportunity for you to talk about what you’re investing in and what you’re building, the additional sales folks that you’ve hired, so I’m going to turn it over to you.

嘿馬特，我認為這將是一個很好的機會讓你談談你正在投資什麼，你正在建設什麼，你僱用了額外的銷售人員，所以我要轉交給你了。

Okay, thanks Marita. Yes, the investments we’re making in the supplemental and group division are primarily people. We do have some systems modifications and system builds to support the distribution model, but mostly it’s people, so hiring sales leadership on the institutional side or the employer sponsored side, the key factor we added a bunch of people there, and then growing our direct sales force as well. That’s where the bulk of the investment’s going.

好的，謝謝瑪麗塔。是的，我們在補充和集團部門所做的投資主要是人。我們確實有一些系統修改和系統構建來支持分銷模型，但主要是人，所以在機構方面或雇主贊助方面聘請銷售領導，我們在那裡增加了一群人的關鍵因素，然後我們的直銷隊伍也在壯大。這就是大部分投資的去向。

Got it, that’s really helpful. Then my second question is on personal auto. It looks like you’re baking in an additional rate increase in California for this year. Is there increasing receptiveness within that state, and are you planning on filing for any additional rate increases aside from the one that you talked about last quarter, as well as this quarter?

明白了，這真的很有幫助。那麼我的第二個問題是關於個人汽車的。看起來你正在醞釀今年加利福尼亞州的額外加息。該州的接受度是否有所提高，除了上個季度和本季度所談到的以外，您是否計劃申請任何額外的加息？

Yes, we have one pending--well, two pending technically in each company, but one pending rate increase for 6.9% that we’re actively working with the Department of Insurance. We’ve answered, we think, all their questions, we think we’ve justified the rate. We’re hopeful that we’ll receive an approval soon. They have approved a small number of filings, and if you look at the order in which those filings came in, they all predated this edition of our filing, so we’re fairly confident that something will happen soon. And then once we do receive that approval, we do anticipate making another filing because, like everybody else in the industry, the rate is needed; however, we only included the one first filing that we anticipate getting approval soon into our guidance for 2023.

是的，我們有一個懸而未決——好吧，從技術上講，每家公司都有兩個懸而未決，但我們正在積極與保險部合作，將利率提高 6.9%。我們已經回答了，我們認為，他們所有的問題，我們認為我們已經證明了利率是合理的。我們希望我們能盡快獲得批准。他們已經批准了少量的申請，如果你看一下這些申請的提交順序，它們都早於我們這一版的申請，所以我們相當有信心很快就會發生一些事情。然後，一旦我們確實獲得批准，我們確實會提交另一份申請，因為與業內其他人一樣，需要利率；但是，我們只將我們預計很快會獲得批准的第一份申請納入我們的 2023 年指南。

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Heather Wietzel for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Heather Wietzel 以發表任何閉幕詞。

Thank you and thank you everyone for joining us today. I look forward to talking to people over the coming weeks and most definitely look forward to seeing as many of you as possible in person when we’re at IASA in early March. So with that, have a great day. Thank you.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。我期待著在接下來的幾週內與人們交談，並且非常期待在 3 月初我們在 IASA 時與盡可能多的人見面。所以，祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。