Haleon PLC (HLN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Haleon Full Year 2023 Results Q&A Conference Call. I am Shai, the chorus call operator. (Operator Instructions) And the conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加海倫 2023 年全年業績問答電話會議。我是合唱指揮 Shai。 （操作員指示）會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）不得對會議進行錄音以供出版或廣播。

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Sonya Ghobrial, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.

此時此刻，我很高興將工作交給投資人關係主管 Sonya Ghobrial。請繼續，女士。

Thanks, Shai, and good morning, everyone. Thanks very much for joining us for our full year results Q&A. Hopefully, by now, you've had time to look at our presentation as well as the press release and watch the video in the Investors section of our Haleon website. As usual, I'm joined by Brian McNamara, our CEO; and Tobias Hestler, CFO.

謝謝，Shai，大家早安。非常感謝您參加我們的全年業績問答。希望到目前為止，您已經有時間查看我們的簡報和新聞稿，並觀看我們 Haleon 網站投資者部分的影片。像往常一樣，我們的執行長布萊恩·麥克納馬拉 (Brian McNamara) 也加入了我的行列。和財務長 Tobias Hestler。

So with that, we'd like to get started with Q&A and hand over to the first question. Thanks.

因此，我們想開始問答並移交給第一個問題。謝謝。

The first question comes from the line of Rashad Kawan, Morgan Stanley.

第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的Rashad Kawan。

Congrats on the results. Two for me, please. The first one, in terms of absolute margin developments, you're calling out 3% transactional FX impact, another 3% from M&A, so that's about a GBP 150 million headwind. I think you likely get about GBP 100 million from cost savings to partly offset that, some more from kind of operating leverage. So you've taken some pricing obviously in the back half of last year. Can you just talk about how you expect gross margin to develop over the year? How much of the GBP 100 million in savings you plan on reinvesting, et cetera? Just trying to get a sense for the margin evolution over the year?

祝賀結果。請給我兩個。第一個，就絕對利潤發展而言，您指出 3% 的交易性外匯影響，另外 3% 來自併購，因此這大約是 1.5 億英鎊的阻力。我認為您可能會從成本節省中獲得約 1 億英鎊，以部分抵消這一損失，還有一些來自營運槓桿。所以你顯然在去年下半年採取了一些定價。您能談談您預計今年毛利率將如何發展嗎？您計劃將 1 億英鎊儲蓄中的多少用於再投資等？只是想了解一年來的利潤變化嗎？

And then my second question, just on the shape of the P&L for this year. You've given guidance on Q1. But how should we think about the different moving parts over the year in terms of price mix and volume. Again, you're still benefiting from some carryover pricing. So do you expect growth to be priced like that again? Do you plan on taking more pricing? Any color there is helpful.

然後是我的第二個問題，關於今年損益表的形狀。您已就第一季度給出了指引。但我們應該如何考慮這一年中價格組合和數量的不同變化。同樣，您仍然可以從一些結轉定價中受益。那麼您預計成長會再次以這樣的價格定價嗎？您打算採取更高的定價嗎？任何顏色都有幫助。

Okay. Thanks, Rashad. Tobias, I'll pass that to you.

好的。謝謝，拉沙德。託拜厄斯，我會把它轉給你。

Great. So on your margin question, so for '24. So I think we've given you, as you say, the building blocks with translational FX, 2% and 3% down so that gives you about 20 bps negative. That's largely driven by the dollar and the euro. So it's a big currencies, of course, we'll update you as we go through the year and our aide-memoire is each quarter how that evolves. We've given you the M&A building blocks, which is down 1% and 3%, that gives you another about 40 bps of margin that is negative.

偉大的。關於你的保證金問題，24 年也是如此。因此，正如您所說，我認為我們已經為您提供了平移外匯的構建模組，下降 2% 和 3%，這樣您就可以獲得大約 20 個基點的負值。這主要是由美元和歐元推動的。因此，它是一種重要貨幣，當然，我們會在這一年中向您通報最新情況，我們的備忘錄是每個季度的演變。我們已經為您提供了併購建置模組，下降了 1% 和 3%，這給您帶來了另外約 40 個基點的負利潤率。

And then I think, as you said, we said, we're very confident in our guidance. One, we're very confident in the 4% to 6% sales growth guidance, but we're also very confident in being able to grow organic profit ahead of the rate of sales growth. And if you just want to put it a little bit into perspective, you see what we delivered in '23. We delivered 60 bps of margin improvement. So operating profit grew nearly 3 points ahead of the rate of sales growth.

然後我認為，正如您所說，我們說過，我們對我們的指導非常有信心。第一，我們對 4% 至 6% 的銷售成長指引非常有信心，但我們也對能夠領先於銷售成長率的有機利潤成長充滿信心。如果您只是想稍微客觀地看待它，您會看到我們在 23 年交付的內容。我們的利潤率提高了 60 個基點。因此，營業利潤的成長速度比銷售額的成長速度快了近3個百分點。

And then on your question on how we see that going through the P&L line? So on gross margin, we expect gross margin to grow ahead of the rate of sales growth. You've seen that come through in Q4. So in Q4, gross margin was up 70 bps, given easing of inflationary pressures, the pricing coming through a little bit of help because we didn't have to recall we had in the prior year. But overall, I think the algorithm will start working on that.

然後關於你的問題，我們又該如何看待損益表上的情況？因此，就毛利率而言，我們預期毛利率的成長將超過銷售成長率。您已經在第四季度看到了這一點。因此，考慮到通膨壓力的緩解，第四季度的毛利率上升了 70 個基點，定價也得到了一些幫助，因為我們不必回憶去年的情況。但總的來說，我認為演算法將開始解決這個問題。

And then as you mentioned, the productivity program, we said about 1/3 of the GBP 300 million to come through. Again, we feel confident in the GBP 300 million delivery, about 1/3 of that is a drop to help us next year, but it's not going to drop to the bottom line because we're going to use and want to have the flexibility to use that to invest in the business.

然後，正如您提到的生產力計劃，我們說要完成 3 億英鎊中的約 1/3。再次，我們對 3 億英鎊的交付充滿信心，其中大約 1/3 是明年幫助我們的下降，但它不會下降到底線，因為我們將使用並希望擁有靈活性用它來投資業務。

And investing in a business for us means: one, systems, tools, processes because, as you know, we're doing this program because we need to make the business more agile and faster, and we have to reinvest a bit in the business on that; secondly, investing in R&D, clinical trials. We've seen great results we had last year on VMS trials on Centrum, other things we have done. So investment there. And then lastly, investing in A&P because we want to grow A&P more than we did in '23.

對我們來說，投資業務意味著：一、系統、工具、流程，因為如你所知，我們正在做這個計劃，因為我們需要讓業務更加敏捷和更快，我們必須在業務上進行一些再投資在那方面；其次，投資研發、臨床試驗。去年，我們在 Centrum 上的 VMS 試驗以及我們所做的其他事情上看到了很好的結果。所以在那裡投資。最後，投資 A&P 是因為我們希望 A&P 的成長比 23 年時更多。

So all of that with the productivity program and gross margin going up gives us confidence that we'll have operating leverage also in 2024.

因此，隨著生產力計劃和毛利率的上升，我們有信心在 2024 年也將擁有營運槓桿。

And then your second question was on price volume and how to think about that going into the new year? So let me maybe take a step back. So first of all, we've grown volume for the year, not just last year, also throughout the prior year. So I think this business has been, and we've delivered a very resilient business, and we've been very mindful on how much price we took. So I think, it shows you the resilience of the business. So we believe also next year, we'll be able to do both grow price and grow volume.

然後你的第二個問題是關於價格量以及如何看待進入新的一年？所以讓我退後一步。首先，我們今年的銷售量有所成長，不僅是去年，整個前一年也是如此。所以我認為這項業務一直是，而且我們已經提供了非常有彈性的業務，我們一直非常注意我們採取的價格。所以我認為，它顯示了企業的彈性。因此，我們相信明年我們將能夠同時提高價格和數量。

Now last year, as we had said, was more price led. So last year, 85% of the growth came from price. 15% came from volume. In the longer run, we want to be back to about 50-50 between the 2, '24 will be a stepping stone in that direction, but we won't be back to 50-50. So I think -- that's how I would see that going into '24.

正如我們所說，去年更多的是價格主導。所以去年85%的成長來自於價格。 15%來自數量。從長遠來看，我們希望回到 2 世紀 50-50 之間的水平，24 年將是朝這個方向邁進的墊腳石，但我們不會回到 50-50。所以我想——這就是我對 24 年的看法。

The next question comes from the line of Guillaume Delmas, UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團紀堯姆·德爾馬斯（Guillaume Delmas）。

So I've got 2 questions. The first one is on your Respiratory Health division, which had a very strong finish to the year, quite in sharp contrast to most of your listed competitors. So could you maybe shed some light on this surprisingly strong performance in Q4? And also, I guess, making sure that there were no one-offs or any particular sell-in, sell-out discrepancy that could explain this good Q4.

所以我有兩個問題。第一個是你們的呼吸健康部門，該部門今年的業績非常強勁，與你們列出的大多數競爭對手形成鮮明對比。那麼您能否解釋一下第四季令人驚訝的強勁表現？而且，我想，確保沒有一次性或任何特定的賣進、售出差異可以解釋第四季度的良好表現。

And then my second question is on your VMS operation because there's been a clear improvement towards the end of the year, led it sounds by Caltrate in China, Centrum and also some stabilization for emergency. So with additional marketing support put behind this business and also against the backdrop of improved category growth, would it be fair to assume that VMS should return to its medium-term ambition of mid- to high single-digit growth as early as in 2024?

我的第二個問題是關於你們的 VMS 運營，因為在中國的 Caltrate、Centrum 和緊急情況下的穩定情況下，到年底有明顯的改善。因此，隨著這項業務獲得額外的行銷支持，並且在品類成長改善的背景下，是否可以假設 VMS 最早在 2024 年就恢復到中高個位數成長的中期目標？

Let me -- I'll take those questions. Let me start with respiratory performance. I think you're right, we did see good growth in Q4 of our Respiratory portfolio, just under 11%, and it was 7.5% in the back half. Now I think one of the reasons that those results look different than some of our competitors is, it also has to do with our portfolio and geographic footprint. So for example, the U.S. is about 32% of our Respiratory business. Now in the U.S., in the back half, our business was basically flat in Respiratory, but the market was down kind of mid- to high single digits.

讓我——我來回答這些問題。讓我從呼吸性能開始。我認為你是對的，我們確實看到我們的呼吸產品組合在第四季度取得了良好的增長，略低於 11%，下半年增長了 7.5%。現在我認為這些結果看起來與我們的一些競爭對手不同的原因之一是，它也與我們的產品組合和地理足跡有關。例如，美國約占我們呼吸系統業務的 32%。現在在美國，下半年，我們的呼吸業務業務基本上持平，但市場下降了中高個位數。

Now -- so 68% of our business is outside the U.S. And we saw a much higher instances in some other geographies, specifically places like Central Eastern Europe, Japan and Turkey, and we've performed quite well in those environments. So as we look, though, the outlook, we're looking for a more normal season now, of course, what's normal is always a debatable question.

現在，我們 68% 的業務都在美國境外。我們在其他一些地區看到了更高的情況，特別是中東歐、日本和土耳其等地，我們在這些環境中表現得相當好。因此，當我們展望前景時，我們現在正在尋找一個更正常的賽季，當然，什麼是正常始終是一個有爭議的問題。

But Tobias shared some slides in the presentation that showed, if you look at the U.S. environment, it's getting back to kind of pre-COVID levels, where we expect this to be a business that fluctuates plus or minus 0.5% on a very extreme good or high season or low season. So overall, I think that's the difference. Nothing particularly in one-offs or discrepancies and inventories or anything like that, that I would highlight.

但托比亞斯在演示中分享了一些幻燈片，這些幻燈片顯示，如果你看看美國的環境，它正在回到新冠疫情之前的水平，我們預計這將是一項在非常好的情況下波動正負0.5% 的業務。或旺季或淡季。總的來說，我認為這就是區別。我要強調的是，沒有什麼特別是一次性的、差異和庫存或類似的事情。

On VMS, you're right, we continue to see a more normalization of that category. Tobias, again, shared in the presentation some market share slide, you see that Caltrate and Centrum have done quite well. And frankly, emergency has won share. Now they won share in a declining market, and we're seeing that stabilize as we get towards the end of the year. But we continue to be optimistic on this category. I'm not going to give any specific guidance for next year on it. But we think the category will -- overall, will get back to more pre-COVID kind of growth levels.

在 VMS 上，你是對的，我們繼續看到該類別更加規範化。 Tobias 在簡報中再次分享了一些市場份額幻燈片，您會看到 Caltrate 和 Centrum 做得相當不錯。坦白說，緊急情況贏得了份額。現在，他們在不斷下滑的市場中贏得了份額，隨著年底的臨近，我們看到這種情況趨於穩定。但我們仍然對這一類別保持樂觀。我不會為明年提供任何具體指導。但我們認為，總體而言，該類別將恢復到新冠疫情前的成長水準。

And honestly, this is also an area where I just highlight Centrum, what's happening there, really strong performance on Centrum last year, driven by the clinical study, which now we have 3 different outputs of that clinical study that show that Centrum Silver increases cognitive function by 60% among the population of people 60 and older. We're seeing that really drive differentiation in the marketplace. So we're excited about those kind of things where we can really make a difference in VMS.

老實說，這也是我要重點強調Centrum 的一個領域，那裡發生的事情，在臨床研究的推動下，去年Centrum 的表現非常強勁，現在我們有該臨床研究的3 種不同結果，表明Centrum Silver 可以增強認知能力60 歲及以上人口的功能下降了 60%。我們看到這確實推動了市場的差異化。因此，我們對能夠真正為 VMS 帶來改變的事情感到興奮。

And maybe let me add one thing, Guillaume, going back to the cold and flu topic. So there's another differentiator for us is in our product portfolio. So we have Theraflu, NeoCitran in some European markets and in Canada, which is a hot drink, and that tends to do better in season where you have more flu-like symptoms. So when you really feel under the weather, when you're in bed, when you have a fever. So and the type of box that went around, especially in Europe in Q4 were more of this heavier nature. So I think that helps again. So I think it shows you a bit the strength of our geographic portfolio, but also the strength of our -- and the diversity of our product portfolio, which makes this business very resilient.

也許讓我補充一件事，紀堯姆，回到感冒和流感的話題。因此，我們的另一個與眾不同之處在於我們的產品組合。因此，我們在一些歐洲市場和加拿大有 Theraflu、NeoCitran，這是一種熱飲，在流感樣症狀較多的季節往往效果更好。所以當你真的覺得不舒服的時候，當你躺在床上的時候，當你發燒的時候。因此，流行的盒子類型，尤其是第四季度在歐洲，更多的是這種較重的性質。所以我認為這又有所幫助。因此，我認為這向您展示了我們地理組合的實力，也展示了我們的實力以及我們產品組合的多樣性，這使得這項業務非常有彈性。

The next question comes from the line of Iain Simpson, Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的伊恩辛普森。

A couple of questions from me, if I may. Firstly, just to go through that margin point again to make sure I've understood you correctly. So you've quantified the headwind from portfolio and FX effects. That's the sort of 60, 70 basis point headwind. You've got some cost saves, but I assume that it sounds like a lot of those will be reinvested to further drive growth. So effectively, in order to get margins flat for this year, we probably have to assume that organic margin expansion would be, I know, let's call it, 50 bps plus, which I guess is possible, that also might be a bit of a stretch. So perhaps as we think about reported margin this year versus '23, we should be thinking about it maybe flat to small down. Would that be a fair characterization just to make sure I've understood you?

如果可以的話，我有幾個問題。首先，我想再次回顧這個邊緣點，以確保我正確理解了您的意思。您已經量化了投資組合和外匯影響所帶來的阻力。這相當於 60、70 個基點的逆風。你已經節省了一些成本，但我認為聽起來其中許多將被再投資以進一步推動成長。因此，為了使今年的利潤率持平，我們可能必須假設有機利潤率擴張將是，我知道，我們稱之為 50 個基點以上，我認為這是可能的，這也可能有點拉緊。因此，也許當我們考慮今年報告的利潤率與 23 年相比時，我們應該考慮它可能持平甚至小幅下降。為了確保我理解你，這樣的描述是否公平？

And then secondly, just getting on to that capital return, that GBP 500 million buyback, very welcome. Is that something that you will be doing through the year as a kind of everyday buyback program? Or is that GBP 500 million buyback headroom, something that you will kind of hold in your back pocket to potentially allow you to participate in any future placings?

其次，剛剛獲得資本回報，即 5 億英鎊的回購，非常受歡迎。這是您全年都會做的日常回購計劃嗎？或者說，這 5 億英鎊的回購空間是您可以放在口袋裡的東西，以便您有可能參與任何未來的配售？

So on the margin, right? So I think first of all, knock on to guide on the reported margin, right? Because there's 2 pieces in the reported margin. One is the translational FX, that's going to move up and down. So we're going to update you every quarter on what that is going to be. The numbers I've given you are now the dollar and the euro, as I said earlier, M&A is also moving, right? We might acquire somewhat. You might have a another divestment. You might -- the closing of the divest might be 2 months earlier, 2 months later. So that's a moving piece. Again, we'll update you on that as part of our aide-memoire was, right?

所以在邊緣，對吧？所以我認為首先，先敲一下報告利潤率的指導，對嗎？因為報告的邊距中有 2 件。一是平移外匯，它會上下移動。因此，我們將每季向您通報最新情況。我給你們的數字現在是美元和歐元，正如我之前所說，併購也在發生，對嗎？我們可能會有所收穫。您可能會進行另一次撤資。你可能會——剝離的結束可能會提前 2 個月，也可能會晚 2 個月。所以這是一個感人的作品。再次，我們將向您通報最新情況，作為我們備忘錄的一部分，對嗎？

And then I think on the organic profit growth, I think you should, I think, take some comfort from us being able to deliver 10.8% organic profit growth against the sales growth -- organic sales growth of 8%. So that's nearly 3 points ahead of that. And that was in a year where gross margin was actually down in percent of sales. And we didn't have GBP 100 million plus from a productivity program come through. So I think we have more room to reinvest. But of course, I don't know what's in your model, but I think Q4 should give you a bit of an indication that gross margin growing ahead of the rate of sales growth will help.

然後我認為關於有機利潤成長，我認為你應該從我們能夠實現 10.8% 的有機利潤成長而銷售成長（有機銷售成長 8%）中得到一些安慰。所以領先了近3分。那一年毛利率佔銷售額的百分比實際上有所下降。我們沒有從生產力計劃中獲得超過 1 億英鎊的資金。所以我認為我們有更多的再投資空間。當然，我不知道你的模型中有什麼，但我認為第四季度應該會給你一些暗示，即毛利率成長超過銷售成長率將會有所幫助。

Yes, we'll have some inflation still, but the inflation pressures are lower. We'll have less pricing, of course, as well. But I think we're getting back to a more normal. So I think, in my view, overall, this growth algorithm is realy working and it's yielding result. And then, I think that's for me a great segue to the share buyback, I think, ultimately because that algorithm is working and the strong cash conversion is working and we did a bit of the divestments we announced. I think that gave us the option to do two things. One, to update our capital allocation priorities, probably a year earlier than what we have committed 2 years ago. So you've seen in the slide deck the new capital allocation framework. And with that we're able to announce both, an increase in the dividend, also in the commitment that dividend going forward will grow at least in line with earnings, and then secondly announcing a GBP 500 million buyback.

是的，我們仍然會出現一些通膨，但通膨壓力較低。當然，我們的定價也會更低。但我認為我們正在恢復正常。所以我認為，在我看來，總體而言，這種成長演算法確實有效並且正在產生結果。然後，我認為這對我來說是股票回購的一個很好的延續，我認為，最終是因為演算法正在發揮作用，強勁的現金轉換正在發揮作用，我們宣布了一些撤資。我認為這讓我們可以選擇做兩件事。第一，更新我們的資本配置優先事項，可能比我們兩年前承諾的提前一年。您已經在幻燈片中看到了新的資本配置框架。這樣我們就可以宣布增加股息，並承諾未來股息將至少與收益成長一致，然後宣布 5 億英鎊的回購。

Now specifically on the share buyback, we said we're going to do it during 2024, and we're going to do it either on the open market or buying it back from GSK or Pfizer, if and when they do a listing. I mean, clearly, doing it in a placing would be preferred because you can get it at a discount. But of course, that's outside of my control because that's the Pfizer and GSK decision, but of course, the best value and the highest shareholder value creation you're going to get if we can go through placings.

現在特別是在股票回購方面，我們說我們將在 2024 年期間進行，我們將在公開市場上進行，或從葛蘭素史克或輝瑞（如果他們上市）回購股票。我的意思是，顯然，在一個地方做這件事是首選，因為你可以以折扣價獲得它。但當然，這超出了我的控制範圍，因為這是輝瑞和葛蘭素史克的決定，但當然，如果我們能夠進行配售，您將獲得最佳價值和最高的股東價值創造。

But if the placings wouldn't happen, then of course, we would go and do this and execute this on the open market. So we're ready for both of those things, and we're going to do it during 2024.

但如果配售沒有發生，那麼我們當然會去做這件事並在公開市場上執行。因此，我們已經為這兩件事做好了準備，並將在 2024 年完成。

So again, in summary, I think, the new capital allocation framework really shows you the value creation we're driving and also I think the optionality we have in that is returning now cash back to shareholders.

因此，總而言之，我認為，新的資本配置框架確實向您展示了我們正在推動的價值創造，而且我認為我們擁有的選擇權現在正在將現金返還給股東。

And also then don't forget, that's on top of us having reduced debt by over GBP 2 billion within 18 months. And with the dividend we announced, that's GBP 800 million of dividend going back to shareholders plus another GBP 500 million. So you're in the high GBP 3 billion of debt reduction and returning money to shareholders. As a result of that, again, proving the model, in my view, that's really coming through.

另外不要忘記，這還不包括我們在 18 個月內減少了超過 20 億英鎊的債務。加上我們宣布的股息，即 8 億英鎊的股息將返還給股東，另外還有 5 億英鎊。因此，您已獲得高達 30 億英鎊的債務減免並向股東返還資金。因此，在我看來，再次證明了這個模型，這確實成功了。

Very clear on the margin and congratulations for cranking the cash regime.

利潤非常明確，祝賀現金制度的啟動。

The next question is from Chris Pitcher, Redburn.

下一個問題來自雷德本的克里斯·皮徹。

A couple of questions for me. So following on from the cash question. Clearly, you've done some divestments, you're under no pressure to do divestments, but you're talking in the statement about sort of active portfolio management. On the acquisition side, there hasn't been much on that front. Are you now in a position? Do you have greater capacity to pursue deals? Was it just an issue of availability and price that was perhaps we haven't seen as much on that side of the equation?

有幾個問題問我。接下來是現金問題。顯然，您已經進行了一些撤資，您沒有壓力進行撤資，但您在聲明中談論的是主動投資組合管理。在收購方面，這方面並沒有太多進展。你現在在位嗎？您是否有更強的能力來達成交易？這是否只是一個可用性和價格問題，也許我們在等式的這一邊還沒有看到那麼多？

And then on India, could we just have a bit more detail on that? I mean, India sales were up high single digit, but Sensodyne was up double digit, implying the rest of the portfolio was quite a bit slower. Can you give us a share of how the business now splits between Sensodyne, Centrum, et cetera, for their launch? And was there any disruption from the transition from Hindustan Unilever that maybe affected some of those brands? I see you're going to ramp up marketing. Clearly, we should expect an acceleration in India. I just wanted to check that was right.

關於印度，我們能否提供更多細節？我的意思是，印度的銷售額成長了個位數，但舒適達成長了兩位數，這意味著該產品組合的其他產品的成長要慢一些。您能否向我們介紹一下，在 Sensodyne、Centrum 等公司推出後，目前該業務是如何劃分的？印度斯坦聯合利華的轉型是否造成了任何干擾，可能影響了其中一些品牌？我看到你要加大行銷力道。顯然，我們應該期待印度的加速發展。我只是想檢查一下是否正確。

Let me take the first question. So on active portfolio management, which we said we want to do and a year ago we said, divesting both-on acquisition and expect divestment first, feel good about the 2 divestments we made both Lamisil and ChapStick. In both cases, fantastic brands, just not strategic for us and not growth drivers for us. And in both cases, I think we got really good value for those businesses. So value accretive to the shareholders. And we'll continue to look for opportunities to simplify the portfolio and strengthen the portfolio.

讓我回答第一個問題。因此，在積極的投資組合管理方面，我們說我們想做，一年前我們說過，要放棄收購並首先預期撤資，我們對 Lamisil 和 ChapStick 的兩次撤資感到滿意。在這兩種情況下，都是出色的品牌，但對我們來說沒有策略意義，也不是我們的成長動力。在這兩種情況下，我認為我們為這些企業帶來了非常好的價值。因此，為股東帶來價值增值。我們將繼續尋找機會來簡化產品組合併加強產品組合。

But we are under no pressure to do that. We only do that if it makes sense, sentiment creates value, going there helps ultimately create the company we want to create. As far as -- we do have capacity to do bolt-on M&A. And if we find something that is attractive and strategically makes sense and brings the value in, we would have the capacity and ability to do that. But I probably wouldn't make any more comments beyond that.

但我們沒有壓力這樣做。只有在有意義的情況下，我們才會這樣做，情緒創造價值，去那裡有助於最終創建我們想要創建的公司。就我們而言，我們確實有能力進行補強併購。如果我們發現一些有吸引力的、具有戰略意義並能帶來價值的東西，我們就有能力做到這一點。但除此之外我可能不會再發表任何評論。

Tobias, do you want to talk, Indian?

託拜厄斯，印第安人，你想說話嗎？

Yes. So look, on India, I think, first of all, I think the shift and the change in the business model, building up our own sales forces and getting out of the distribution deal with Unilever worked very well. Of course, this is a heavy, heavy undertaking and you always have a small bubble here or there, but I think the team has landed that very, very well. As a result, shifting all that over, probably sales growth and sales growth into the distribution channel was a little bit lower in Q4 than what you would normally would see. But from a sell-out perspective, the business is doing really, really well and the numbers for the year where I think we're close to double digit. So I think overall, they performed well. And also, they started the year with very strong momentum, yes.

是的。因此，就印度而言，我認為，首先，我認為商業模式的轉變、建立我們自己的銷售團隊以及擺脫與聯合利華的分銷協議效果非常好。當然，這是一項繁重的任務，到處都會有一些小氣泡，但我認為團隊已經非常非常好地實現了這一點。因此，如果把所有這些都轉移過來，第四季度的銷售成長和分銷管道的銷售成長可能會比你通常看到的要低一些。但從銷售的角度來看，業務做得非常非常好，我認為今年的銷售數字接近兩位數。所以我認為總的來說，他們表現得很好。而且，他們以非常強勁的勢頭開始了這一年，是的。

So I think overall, I think as we always said, this is a market for us that should grow in the double-digit, in the teens for us. And I think we're also very heavily investing into the market, right? So I think we both in '23, but also into '24, we continue to support that market, not just with the investment in the sales forces and in building the machines do it ourselves, but also in terms of A&P and was launching further brands in the market like taking Centrum into brick-and-mortars and other things.

所以我認為總的來說，正如我們一直所說的那樣，這對我們來說是一個應該以兩位數成長的市場，對我們來說是十幾歲的成長。我認為我們也在市場上投入了大量資金，對嗎？因此，我認為我們無論是在23 年，還是在24 年，我們都將繼續支持該市場，不僅是對銷售人員的投資和我們自己製造機器的投資，而且還包括A&P 方面的投資，並正在進一步推出市場上的品牌喜歡將 Centrum 引入實體店和其他領域。

So overall, the big switch was done, executed successfully, and I think now really see that as a growth driver for us in the future as well.

總的來說，重大轉變已經完成，並且成功執行，我認為現在也確實將其視為我們未來的成長動力。

The next question is from David Hayes, Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 David Hayes。

I have 1 follow-up and 2 questions, if I can. Just to follow up and may appreciate a bit more on the net cost savings versus the gross cost savings. So I'm interpreting it as GBP 100 million of gross, none of it falling through to the bottom line this year really. And then looking to next year, GBP 200 million gross. Is there any way you can give us an indication of what the net benefit might be budgeted for in 2025 as you phase in those savings?

如果可以的話，我有 1 個後續行動和 2 個問題。只是為了跟進，可能會更欣賞淨成本節省與總成本節省的關係。所以我將其解釋為 1 億英鎊的總收入，今年實際上沒有一個達到底線。然後展望明年，總收入將達到 2 億英鎊。您是否可以透過任何方式向我們表明，當您分階段投入這些節省時，2025 年的淨效益可能會達到多少預算？

And then on the 2 other questions. A&P spend, I think, done 80 basis points potential sales in '23. Can you just talk us through the drivers of that? I'm assuming there's a bit of Russia suspension of A&P, maybe some agency continued rationalization post filing out of GSK, but just a bit of dynamics on that 80 basis points, would be helpful.

然後是另外兩個問題。我認為 A&P 支出使 23 年的潛在銷售額成長了 80 個基點。您能向我們介紹一下其驅動因素嗎？我假設俄羅斯暫停了 A&P，也許某些機構在葛蘭素史克提交申請後繼續進行合理化，但只要在 80 個基點上有一些動態就會有所幫助。

And then my final one, on the first quarter guidance that you're giving close to 4% OSG, could you commit to the volumes you think will be positive within that number in the first quarter? Just to push on that as well.

然後我的最後一個問題是，根據您給出的 OSG 接近 4% 的第一季指導，您能否承諾在第一季度實現您認為在該數字內為正值的銷售？只是為了推動這一點。

Listen, I'll answer the A&P question and then pass it to Tobias to do your follow-up in the Q1 guidance. So first of all, on A&P, I just want to be very clear that we are absolutely committed to investing in our brands, and we believe investing in A&P is important. Also investing in R&D and in our case, in the expert side of our business model, which is really important in oral health with dentists, but also with pharmacists with our OTC business.

聽著，我將回答 A&P 問題，然後將其傳遞給 Tobias，讓您在第一季指南中進行後續跟進。首先，關於 A&P，我只想明確表示，我們絕對致力於投資我們的品牌，我們相信投資 A&P 很重要。也投資於研發，就我們而言，投資於我們業務模式的專家方面，這對於牙醫的口腔健康非常重要，而且對於我們的非處方藥業務的藥劑師也非常重要。

We do start A&P as a percent of sales in a relatively healthy place at 17.9%. But as you said, this year, we grew A&P 3%. And as the year goes on, we're very active in the way we manage A&P and ensure we get the best returns. So for example, in 2023, our A&P investment will find oral health was very strong, and you've seen that come out in results. And actually, we continue to invest in VMS, and we're able to take share, an example on emergency, which to be showed in the presentation in a declining market, which I think positions us and strengthens us for the future.

我們開始時 A&P 佔銷售額的百分比確實處於相對健康的水平，為 17.9%。但正如您所說，今年我們的 A&P 成長了 3%。隨著時間的推移，我們非常積極地管理 A&P 並確保我們獲得最佳回報。例如，到 2023 年，我們的 A&P 投資將發現口腔健康非常強勁，而且您已經看到了結果。事實上，我們繼續投資 VMS，並且我們能夠分享，這是一個關於緊急情況的例子，這將在不斷下滑的市場中的演示中展示，我認為這為我們定位並增強了我們的未來。

On the contrary, in respiratory, in the U.S., where we saw lower incidences and some disruption due to some ingredient questions on PE, Phenylephrine, we actually pulled back from our A&P spend there, is a conscious choice because we feel like the returns weren't there in that level of market. So -- and so when we look across the portfolio, we are actively managing that and making sure that we're investing for growth and we're investing in the right places, but not investing just to invest.

相反，在美國的呼吸系統領域，我們看到發病率較低，並且由於PE、去氧腎上腺素的一些成分問題而造成一些幹擾，我們實際上從那裡撤回了A&P 支出，這是一個有意識的選擇，因為我們覺得報酬率不高。沒有那個等級的市場。因此，當我們審視整個投資組合時，我們正在積極管理這一點，並確保我們投資是為了成長，投資在正確的地方，但不僅僅是為了投資而投資。

And then as you said, within that, there is efficiencies we're always looking to be more efficient in our non-working A&P, and we see that obviously grow slower than overall A&P. So there's a number of dynamics in there. But we feel good about the investment, as Tobias said earlier, we expect in 2024 to continue to invest in A&P and drive growth and invested really higher than this year.

然後，正如您所說，其中，我們一直希望在非工作 A&P 中提高效率，我們發現其成長速度明顯慢於整體 A&P。所以那裡有很多動力。但我們對這項投資感覺良好，正如 Tobias 早些時候所說，我們預計 2024 年將繼續投資 A&P 並推動成長，而且投資確實比今年更高。

Good. And so coming back to the productivity question. So look, we're not going to split out what's the productivity program and how much of that drops to the bottom line. But I mean, let me go back to why we did the productivity program. We did it because we want to and have to drive agility in that business, to make the business faster, more agile.

好的。回到生產力問題。所以看，我們不會區分什麼是生產力計劃以及其中有多少會下降到底線。但我的意思是，讓我回顧一下我們為什麼要實施生產力計畫。我們這樣做是因為我們希望並且必須提高該業務的敏捷性，使業務更快、更敏捷。

And then secondly, we also did it because it gives us the comfort that we can invest into the business in R&D and A&P. And I think that's, I think, we're -- there are slight differences to '23. We didn't have the tailwind from a productivity program. Going into '24, we have this tailwind. And that helps us being able to fund the things we want to fund. And actually, that helps us that we will be able to be -- to continue to be competitive in still a difficult market environment where in some places, we have seen volumes declining, and we have to battle for the volume growth that also we're committed to get.

其次，我們這樣做也是因為它讓我們感到安心，我們可以投資研發和 A&P 業務。我認為我們與 23 年略有不同。我們沒有從生產力計劃中得到推動。進入 24 年，我們迎來了順風車。這有助於我們為我們想要資助的事情提供資金。事實上，這有助於我們在仍然困難的市場環境中繼續保持競爭力，在某些地方，我們看到銷量下降，我們必須為銷量成長而奮鬥。重新承諾得到。

And I think that gives us, I think, the confidence that to be in this 4% to 6% range. And secondly, that we can grow operating profit ahead of the rate of sales growth in '24, even in an environment out there where people might be putting more money back into A&P that they had taken out earlier.

我認為這讓我們有信心保持在 4% 到 6% 的範圍內。其次，即使在人們可能會投入到 A&P 比之前取出的更多資金的環境中，我們的營業利潤成長速度也能超過 24 年的銷售成長率。

And then just on Q1. So we're not going to split out and give quarterly guidance on price and volume, right? But if you just -- I think in the backup of my deck, you see a little bit of consideration for sales growth. So look, oral care, VMS, digestive health and other pretty clean from a run rate point of view, there's nothing undue in the base.

然後就在第一季。因此，我們不會拆分並提供有關價格和銷量的季度指導，對嗎？但如果你——我認為在我的套牌的支持中，你會看到對銷售成長的一些考慮。所以，從運作率的角度來看，口腔護理、VMS、消化健康和其他方面都相當乾淨，基礎上沒有任何不當之處。

And then there is -- we have to cycle over pain-relief and respiratory health. And you see that in the backup, and we mentioned it earlier in the call. And look, if you want to take a little bit of a step back, take comfort for what we delivered in Q4. We did 6.5% sales growth cycling over tough comps with some volume growth as well, right?

然後，我們必須循環考慮止痛和呼吸系統健康。您可以在備份中看到這一點，我們在先前的電話會議中也提到過這一點。看，如果您想退一步，請對我們在第四季度交付的成果感到放心。與艱難的競爭對手相比，我們的銷售額成長了 6.5%，銷量也有所成長，對嗎？

And then again, that's the strength of the portfolio geographically and from a product mix point of view that the categories give us.

話又說回來，這就是產品組合在地理上和類別為我們提供的產品組合角度的優勢。

The next question comes from the line of Bruno Monteyne, Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的布魯諾·蒙泰尼。

My first question is on innovation and R&D. If I read the slides correctly, R&D is down as a percentage of sales. I just wanted to understand, is that linked to the -- our activity see switches that are maybe further delayed or maybe off the table? And if you could say anything about the sexual health product license that you gained a little while ago, when will that start impacting organic growth for the business?

我的第一個問題是關於創新和研發。如果我正確地閱讀投影片，研發佔銷售額的百分比會下降。我只是想了解，這是否與我們的活動看到的開關可能進一步延遲或可能不可行有關？如果您能談談您不久前獲得的性保健產品許可證，這什麼時候會開始影響業務的有機成長？

My second question is coming back to hyperinflation. I'm totally clear how hyperinflation capping will impact the pricing and the organic growth. But my question is on your margin bridges, you talked about operating leverage, let's say, the plus 50, 60 basis points this year and then you have the negative effects. Clearly, a big part of the operating leverage and the FX is Argentina and the like. So will your new approach to hyperinflation also reduce the amount of kind of operating leverage you would have quoted for 2023, and therefore the effect? So will that new approach also impact the way you report those EBIT margin bridges?

我的第二個問題是回到惡性通貨膨脹。我完全清楚惡性通貨膨脹上限將如何影響定價和有機成長。但我的問題是關於你的利潤橋樑，你談到了經營槓桿，比方說，今年加50、60個基點，然後你就會產生負面影響。顯然，經營槓桿和外匯的很大一部分是阿根廷等。那麼，你們應對惡性通貨膨脹的新方法是否也會減少你們為 2023 年報價的經營槓桿數量，從而減少影響？那麼，這種新方法是否也會影響您申報息稅前利潤橋樑的方式？

And I'll start with the innovation R&D and then pass it on to Tobias. So on innovation and R&D, we believe in investing in that. What you saw coming through in the numbers was a bit of the efficiencies and effectiveness of the things we're driving across the business on some structured things and some we exited some TSAs, for instance, with GSK on pharmacovigilance and kind of took that in. So those -- that's the slight percentage of sales decline that you see.

我將從創新研發開始，然後交給托比亞斯。因此，在創新和研發方面，我們相信對此進行投資。你從數字中看到的是我們在整個業務中推動的一些結構化事務的效率和有效性，以及我們退出的一些TSA，例如，與葛蘭素史克在藥物警戒方面的合作，並在某種程度上將其納入考慮範圍。 . 所以那些——這就是你看到的銷售額下降的微小百分比。

We're very committed to delivering this year. We had 67 new product launches this year. Very proud of some of the innovation that went and you look at the U.S. market where we launched Sensodyne Active Pronamel Shield, year 2 of Sensodyne sensitivity gum, the 2 biggest innovations in the U.S. toothpaste market. Things like emergency crystals, which is a new form and be able to take emergency without water, again off to a really nice start.

我們非常致力於今年的交付。今年我們推出了 67 個新產品。我們對其中的一些創新感到非常自豪，看看美國市場，我們推出了 Sensodyne Active Pronamel Shield，這是 Sensodyne 敏感口香糖的第二年，是美國牙膏市場的兩項最大創新。像緊急水晶這樣的東西，它是一種新形式，能夠在沒有水的情況下採取緊急行動，這又是一個非常好的開始。

PanaNatra is in Australia, which is a natural pain relief brand with clinical claims, we think, is a new frontier and opportunity we're working our way into. So we feel good about the innovation. Or we feel like we can do better and always pushing for more there. But we're going to invest where we need to invest in that space.

PanaNatra 位於澳大利亞，是一個具有臨床聲稱的天然止痛品牌，我們認為，這是我們正在努力進入的新領域和機會。所以我們對這項創新感覺良好。或者我們覺得我們可以做得更好，並且總是在那裡爭取更多。但我們將在需要投資的地方進行投資。

Your question on the sexual health, we haven't given much of an update. We expect to launch that within the next 12 months, and we'll update the market as we have more clarity and can give more perspective on that.

你關於性健康的問題，我們還沒有提供太多更新。我們預計將在未來 12 個月內推出該功能，當我們對此有了更清晰的了解並提供更多觀點時，我們將更新市場狀況。

Tobias, you want to...

托比亞斯，你想...

Yes. Just one small build in R&D. There's also a small accounting change we made. There were certain G&A costs that in the old days as we spun out of (inaudible) reported in R&D. We simplified our accounting. So some of it moved into the SG&A line just to be more consistent. So that was also another reason for -- you saw a little bit less on the R&D line, which has shifted over into another line, but that's also now also out of the base going forward.

是的。只是研發方面的一小部分。我們也進行了一個小的會計變更。過去，我們在研發中報告了某些一般管理費用（聽不清楚）。我們簡化了會計。因此，其中一些轉移到 SG&A 行只是為了更加一致。所以這也是另一個原因——你在研發線上看到的有點少，它已經轉移到另一條線上，但現在也超越了基礎。

And then on your hyperinflation question, yes, Bruno, you are absolutely right. I think the Argentina and Turkey because we did not apply hyperinflation accounting in 2023, gave us a bit of a tailwind of -- give us a bit of a tailwind on both the sales numbers, but also on the operating profit number. Now of course, there's also transactional losses in that because these markets tend to import.

然後關於你的惡性通貨膨脹問題，是的，布魯諾，你絕對是對的。我認為阿根廷和土耳其因為我們在 2023 年沒有採用惡性通貨膨脹會計，所以給我們帶來了一些順風——不僅在銷售數字上，而且在營業利潤數字上也給我們帶來了一些順風。當然，現在也存在交易損失，因為這些市場傾向進口。

So I think in Turkey, we do not have our own manufacturing. So they have to import from -- mostly from hard currencies production size. In Argentina, we have our own production, but they're still raw materials and certain materials that you can't get in the country that's offset.

所以我認為在土耳其，我們沒有自己的製造業。因此，他們必須從——主要是從硬通貨生產規模進口。在阿根廷，我們有自己的生產，但它們仍然是原材料和某些在抵消的國家無法獲得的材料。

So -- but look, in the mix, I'm not concerned about the ability to drive operating margin going forward even with applying hyperinflation accounting going forward.

所以，但看看，在混合中，即使未來應用惡性通貨膨脹會計，我也不擔心未來推動營業利潤率的能力。

And anything on the Rx/OTC switches and the innovation, is any update there?

關於 Rx/OTC 開關和創新的任何內容，有什麼更新嗎？

No, no update to speak of. I think as we said, again, 2 years ago, we said we'd expect that in the pipeline, we have 2 switches that come potentially launched in '25 and '26. We -- since those have been delayed, based on discussions with the FDA, so really no update on that. And obviously, we've done the deal on sexual health, which is in a way an Rx/OTC switch is a direct to OTC and we're excited about that opportunity there.

不，沒有更新可言。我想正如我們在 2 年前再次說過的那樣，我們預計我們將在 25 年和 26 年推出 2 款交換機。我們——由於根據與 FDA 的討論，這些已經被推遲，所以實際上沒有任何更新。顯然，我們已經就性健康達成了協議，從某種程度上來說，處方藥/非處方藥的轉換是非處方藥的直接轉換，我們對那裡的機會感到興奮。

The next question comes from the line of Celine Pannuti, JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Celine Pannuti。

My first question is on the balance sheet or the leverage. So you said you are 3x. Do you still have a goal of 2.5x given that you are going to do that, that's the share buyback and you announced the dividend, so actually could update us on that? My second question is on pricing. Can you talk about your ability to price and what kind of regions or quantum of pricing we should be looking forward as additional pricing in 2024, if any?

我的第一個問題是關於資產負債表或槓桿率。所以你說你是3x。鑑於您打算這樣做，您是否仍然有 2.5 倍的目標，那就是股票回購，並且您宣布了股息，所以實際上可以向我們介紹最新情況嗎？我的第二個問題是關於定價。您能否談談您的定價能力以及我們應該預期 2024 年的額外定價（如果有）的地區或定價量？

And then lastly, can you talk about the volume performance in EMEA, LATAM, which was negative, as negative as in Q3, one in Q3, there were some, I think, one-off issues. So could you shed light on that?

最後，您能談談歐洲、中東和非洲、拉丁美洲的銷售表現嗎？它們的銷售表現是負面的，與第三季一樣負面，第三季的情況也是如此，我認為存在一些一次性問題。能透露一下嗎？

First, let me just talk the pricing ability thing. I think as we look at next year, we continue to expect to see pricing. We also expect to have volume growth through for the full year. And as we've always said, we try to keep very conscious of how we take pricing because we want to continue to see that volume growth, very proud of 2022 and 2023 and what we've been able to deliver.

首先，我先談談定價能力的問題。我認為，當我們展望明年時，我們仍然期望看到定價。我們也預計全年銷量將會成長。正如我們一直所說的，我們努力非常清楚我們如何定價，因為我們希望繼續看到銷售成長，並對 2022 年和 2023 年以及我們能夠交付的產品感到非常自豪。

The pricing environment certainly in mass markets, places like U.S. and across Europe is challenging, but we believe that we have still the ability to take price. And certainly, in pharmacies across Europe, it's much more about the decision we want to make on the pricing we can take and the consumer elasticity because they're really not a retailer in between us and the ability to take pricing as it's mostly independent pharmacy. And our OTC portfolio in Europe pretty much goes 100% through that channel.

在美國和整個歐洲等大眾市場，定價環境無疑具有挑戰性，但我們相信我們仍然有能力接受價格。當然，在歐洲各地的藥局，更多的是我們想要對我們可以採取的定價和消費者彈性做出的決定，因為他們實際上不是我們和定價能力之間的零售商，因為它主要是獨立的藥房。我們在歐洲的場外交易投資組合幾乎 100% 透過該管道。

And then overall, listen, we feel good about the performance of our business in Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. We did see some volume declines there, as you noted. We've been able to take good price and the volume decline is really differentiated geographically. So place like Latin America, you would see a bit more volume decline, and it links a little bit to Tobias' point also in the hyperinflation comments in Argentina.

總的來說，我們對歐洲、中東、非洲和拉丁美洲的業務表現感到滿意。正如您所指出的，我們確實看到那裡的成交量有所下降。我們已經能夠獲得很好的價格，而且銷量下降確實因地理位置而異。因此，像拉丁美洲這樣的地方，您會看到交易量下降更多一些，這與托比亞斯在阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹評論中的觀點有一點聯繫。

But overall, we feel good about the makeup of the business. And then you have regions like Asia, where we had low inflation, and we continue to see really strong volume growth in that region and expect to continue to see good volume growth. Tobias?

但總的來說，我們對業務的組成感覺良好。然後是像亞洲這樣的地區，那裡的通貨膨脹率較低，我們繼續看到該地區的銷售成長非常強勁，並預計將繼續看到良好的銷售成長。托比亞斯？

Yes, look, on your -- on the leverage question, right, we said our medium-term target is to be around 2.5, right? It doesn't mean 2.5 sharp, but around that, the 2.5 number. We think that when you -- with all the analysis we've done, we think this is the right longer term, more medium term leverage range, taking all the components into account, interest rate and all the other capital allocation priorities. So I think that's why we aligned with the Board to target around 2.5 number over the medium term.

是的，關於槓桿問題，我們說過我們的中期目標是 2.5 左右，對嗎？它並不意味著 2.5 銳利，而是指大約 2.5 的數字。我們認為，根據我們所做的所有分析，我們認為這是正確的長期、更中期的槓桿範圍，考慮到所有組成部分、利率和所有其他資本配置優先事項。所以我認為這就是為什麼我們與董事會一致將中期目標定為 2.5 左右。

Now I think how we get there. I mean, I think you should take some confidence from our deleveraging path. We started around 4, so slightly above 4, 18 months ago, and we're down to 3.0 now. And I think we -- I think the strong cash generation of this business will not change going forward. So I think as we keep executing in the model, there we can do both, we can deleverage. And then also, I think when you think about the share buyback now, we have the income from the divest that helped to partially fund that.

現在我想我們如何到達那裡。我的意思是，我認為你應該對我們的去槓桿化道路抱持著一些信心。我們從 4 左右開始，18 個月前略高於 4，現在已降至 3.0。我認為我們—我認為這項業務強勁的現金產生能力未來不會改變。所以我認為，當我們繼續執行該模型時，我們可以做到這兩點，我們可以去槓桿化。此外，我認為當你現在考慮股票回購時，我們從剝離中獲得的收入有助於部分資助該股票回購。

And lastly, also, I mean, if you just take at our cash position, we ended the year with a strong cash position. So ended the year with GBP 1 billion of cash on the balance sheet, no commercial paper outstanding. And I think that allows us to pay back the bond, the $700 million bond that's due now in March from cash and also to pay out the dividend.

最後，我的意思是，如果你只考慮我們的現金狀況，我們在年底時擁有強勁的現金狀況。截至年底，資產負債表上有 10 億英鎊現金，沒有未償還的商業票據。我認為這使我們能夠用現金償還債券，即 3 月到期的 7 億美元債券，並支付股息。

So I think overall, I think the business is in a very strong place from a cash position. And I think it's delivering exactly on what we have promised to do and even ahead of time on that.

因此，我認為總體而言，我認為該業務的現金狀況非常強勁。我認為它完全兌現了我們的承諾，甚至提前兌現了。

The next question comes from the line of Olivier Nicolai, Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的奧利維耶·尼古拉 (Olivier Nicolai)。

I've got 2 questions, please. First, going back to oral health. Could you give us a bit more details on the strong growth acceleration you've seen throughout the year? How much of this growth could be explained by the distribution gain that you still got on the non-tax or (inaudible)? And if that will continue to be a boost in 2024? And then just a follow-up, if I may, on the marketing spend, which grew 3% constant currency, but declining as a percentage of sales to 17.9%. Now you mentioned that some of the reduction was in respiratory, but did not prevented you from outperforming your peers. So keen to hear your thoughts there? But also going forward, is 18% roughly a percentage of sales? Is that roughly the correctly that we should think about?

我有 2 個問題請教。首先，回到口腔健康。您能否向我們介紹您全年強勁成長加速的更多細節？這種成長有多少可以用非稅或（聽不清楚）的分配收益來解釋？ 2024 年這是否會繼續推動？然後是行銷支出的後續行動，以固定匯率計算，行銷支出成長了 3%，但佔銷售額的百分比下降至 17.9%。現在您提到部分下降是在呼吸方面，但這並沒有阻止您超越同齡人。很想聽聽您的想法嗎？但展望未來，18% 是否大致是銷售額的一個百分比？我們應該大致正確地思考這一點嗎？

Let me start on oral health. So yes, very good about the oral health performance. And as you saw from the presentation, really strong share growth across the 3 power brands, which is the vast majority of our business and different dynamics of growth all 3. So Sensodyne continues to see strong growth. Obviously, there was pricing but also volume growth on that business.

讓我從口腔健康開始。所以，是的，口腔健康表現非常好。正如您從演示中看到的那樣，三個強大品牌的份額增長非常強勁，這是我們業務的絕大多數，並且這三個品牌都有不同的增長動力。因此，舒適達繼續保持強勁增長。顯然，該業務不僅有定價，而且有銷售成長。

And I think that growth was really driven by some very good innovations and performance by innovation. So I mentioned Sensodyne Proactive enamel repair, year 2 in many places, the Sensodyne sensitivity gum. So we're really seeing the model, which is the dental detail model, the innovation, the recommendation continue to be very strong and hold up very well in a volatile kind of economic environment.

我認為成長確實是由一些非常好的創新和創新的績效所推動的。所以我在很多地方提到了Sensodyne Proactive琺瑯質修復，第二年的Sensodyne敏感口香糖。因此，我們確實看到了這個模型，即牙科細節模型、創新和推薦仍然非常強烈，並且在不穩定的經濟環境中保持得很好。

Also, we just launched in the U.S. and a few other markets, Sensodyne Clinical White in Q1, which is an innovation we are very, very excited about. As you may know, whitening is a big trend in the market. But whitening toothpaste actually are very bad for set people with sensitive teeth, and we have a product that actually does both, 2 shades whiter and 24/7 sensitivity protection. So feel good about that.

此外，我們剛剛在第一季在美國和其他一些市場推出了 Sensodyne Clinical White，這是我們非常非常興奮的創新。如您所知，美白是市場的一大趨勢。但美白牙膏其實對牙齒敏感的人來說非常糟糕，而我們有一款產品實際上可以做到這兩點：增白 2 個色調和 24/7 敏感度保護。所以對此感覺良好。

Parodontax is a bit of us continuing to activate where it's been in market but maybe we haven't had the capacity to resource allocate. We're seeing it react very well to brands and also to investment and to the growth. And then I would say on denture care. Denture care is a bit of a bounce back from COVID. So what happened during COVID in that population, an older population, less disposable income as social occasions went down, the usage of the category went down. Obviously, we're about half of that category on a global basis.

Parodontax 是我們中的一部分，繼續在市場上啟動它，但也許我們沒有能力分配資源。我們看到它對品牌、投資和成長的反應非常好。然後我會說關於假牙護理。假牙護理是從新冠疫情中恢復過來的。那麼，在新冠疫情期間，該人群中發生了什麼，人口老化，隨著社交場合的減少，可支配收入減少，該類別的使用量也下降了。顯然，我們在全球範圍內約佔該類別的一半。

And now we're seeing that come back, but also strong innovation there, too, because our [Max Grip] Polident product that went out truly, truly has made a difference for that consumer segment. But you wouldn't expect to see that level of growth going forward because there's a bit of a base effect. So overall, feel good about that.

現在我們看到這種情況回來了，也出現了強大的創新，因為我們的 [Max Grip] Polident 產品真正地、真正地為該消費群體帶來了變化。但你不會期望看到未來的成長水平，因為存在一定的基礎效應。總的來說，感覺良好。

On the A&P investment and on respiratory, again, as I mentioned, and Tobias mentioned a bit on our brands, but the geographic footprint, our respiratory portfolio is very different than our competitors. So yes, we decided to invest less in certain markets where we weren't seeing it and we were still able to deliver. We believe in investing in A&P, no question about it. I'm not going to put a number on what I think the right level is because we do want to be active in the way we manage that and in the way we drive growth and we drive returns of our A&P. But feel good about the choices.

關於 A&P 投資和呼吸系統投資，正如我所提到的，托比亞斯也提到了我們的品牌，但就地理足跡而言，我們的呼吸系統產品組合與我們的競爭對手有很大不同。所以，是的，我們決定減少對某些我們沒有看到的市場的投資，但我們仍然能夠交付。毫無疑問，我們相信投資 A&P。我不會給出我認為正確程度的數字，因為我們確實希望在管理方式、推動成長和推動 A&P 回報的方式上保持積極主動。但對這些選擇感覺良好。

And I think the big data point for me is if you remember, at half year, we were at 55% of the business gaining and maintaining share. At full year for all of 2023 we're at 58%. So while we're making those choices, we're continuing to see the competitiveness strengthened. We've always, by the way, are wanting to do more and be more competitive and even see that number go up. But we feel really good about where we ended for the full year and the choices we made.

我認為對我來說大數據點是，如果你還記得的話，半年時，我們有 55% 的業務獲得併保持了份額。 2023 年全年的成長率為 58%。因此，當我們做出這些選擇時，我們將繼續看到競爭力的增強。順便說一句，我們一直希望做得更多，更具競爭力，甚至看到這個數字還在上升。但我們對全年的結局以及我們所做的選擇感到非常滿意。

And maybe just to add too little builds to what Brian said on -- just on the 58% of the business gaining share, just a reminder, that covers over 90% of our revenue. So this is really our full business, all the brands, all the markets wherever we get market share data, so it's a really holistic measure against the GBP 11 billion of revenue that we have. And I think I just want to point that out a bit. So I think, really strong number overall.

也許只是對 Brian 所說的內容添加了太少的內容——只是 58% 的業務獲得了份額，只是提醒一下，這涵蓋了我們 90% 以上的收入。因此，這實際上是我們的全部業務、所有品牌、所有市場（無論我們在何處獲取市場份額數據），因此這是我們 110 億英鎊收入的真正全面衡量標準。我想我只是想指出一點。所以我認為，整體而言，數字非常強勁。

The next question comes from Mikheil Omanadze, BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Mikheil Omanadze。

One question, one follow-up for me, please. Can you please comment on the consumer environment in your categories? Are you observing any down trading at all in your key markets? And in terms of the follow-up, just to make sure I understood correctly, you said that longer term, you are targeting your organic growth to be roughly half and half split between volume and price and that 2024 will be a step in that direction. Does that mean that you expect pricing to still be a higher contributor of growth in 2024? Just to make sure I understood this correctly.

請給我一個問題，一個後續問題。您能評價一下您所在品類的消費環境嗎？您是否在主要市場觀察到任何下跌交易？在後續行動方面，為了確保我理解正確，您說從長遠來看，您的目標是將銷量和價格之間的有機增長大致各佔一半，並且 2024 年將是朝著這個方向邁出的一步。這是否意味著您預計 2024 年定價仍將是成長的更大貢獻者？只是為了確保我正確理解這一點。

Let me take the first and I'll pass it to Tobias on the pricing. As far as the consumer environment in key markets, I think we mentioned a bit it does change geographically a bit on what we see. And as I mentioned before, Asia continues to be quite strong, low inflation in that market, and we can see this good volume growth.

讓我來討論第一個問題，然後我會將其轉交給托比亞斯來討論定價問題。就主要市場的消費環境而言，我認為我們提到過，根據我們所看到的情況，它確實在地理上發生了一些變化。正如我之前提到的，亞洲市場仍然相當強勁，通貨膨脹率較低，我們可以看到良好的銷售成長。

If you look at the U.S. environment, it's been a bit tougher environment in the sense that we've seen kind of volume declines in certain categories. But what I would say is it's really a category-by-category story. So as immunity category, as we shared, saw a significant decline because of the explosive growth that happened during COVID. If you look at respiratory, in the first half, we saw good growth and then in the back half due to seasonality, we saw that category decline. And on oral health, we've continued to see real strength in that category going on.

如果你看看美國的環境，你會發現這是一個更艱難的環境，我們已經看到某些類別的銷售量下降。但我想說的是，這確實是一個逐一類別的故事。因此，正如我們所分享的，由於新冠疫情期間發生的爆炸性增長，免疫類別出現了顯著下降。如果你看一下呼吸系統，在上半年，我們看到了良好的成長，然後在下半年，由於季節性因素，我們看到該類別出現下降。在口腔健康方面，我們繼續看到該類別的真正優勢。

As far as down-trading and private label and U.S. would be the largest private label market, we're really not seeing that on a broad basis and across our portfolio. Actually, overall, in private label in the U.S., we've gained share. Now it's different category-by-category, smoking cessation, a little different. It's a higher-priced product. But I'd say, overall, nothing material is happening that's impacting the business overall in that way. Tobias?

就降價交易和自有品牌而言，美國將成為最大的自有品牌市場，我們確實沒有在廣泛的基礎上和整個投資組合中看到這一點。事實上，總體而言，在美國的自有品牌領域，我們已經獲得了份額。現在分門別類，戒菸，有點不同。這是一種價格較高的產品。但我想說，總體而言，沒有發生任何重大事件以這種方式影響整個業務。托比亞斯？

Yes, I think you understood this correctly. So there will be more of our growth coming from price than from volume next year. So it's a stepping stone in that direction. In the medium term, we think we're going to be back at the round of 50-50, and outlooks the 50-50 was 60-40, 40-60, depending on the year when you launch and how you take price. But a stepping stone in that direction, but clearly still more skewed to price. But significantly less than it was last year with the 7 and 1 or 85-15 between the 2 years.

是的，我想你的理解是正確的。因此，明年我們的成長將更多來自價格而不是數量。所以它是朝這個方向的踏腳石。從中期來看，我們認為我們將回到 50-50 的水平，50-50 的前景是 60-40、40-60，具體取決於您推出的年份以及您如何定價。但這是朝這個方向邁出的一步，但顯然更偏向價格。但與去年相比，兩年間的 7 和 1 或 85-15 明顯減少。

The next question comes from the line of Tom Sykes, Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的湯姆·賽克斯（Tom Sykes）。

Firstly, just on China OTC, and I guess, the renewal of the China route JV is due in September, is there anything you can say on that and whether any terms will change and maybe what phasing of China OTC does to the phasing of group profitability? And then just on North American growth, are you seeing any impact of increased OTC allowances from insurance companies? And do you get a sort of flushing of FSA eligible or accounts for FSA eligible product in Q4, which rather accentuates the seasonality at all of OTC?

首先，就中國OTC 而言，我想，中國航線合資企業的續約將於9 月到期，對此您有什麼可以說的嗎？是否有任何條款會發生變化，以及中國OTC 的階段性對集團的階段性有何影響獲利能力？那麼就北美的成長而言，您是否看到保險公司增加的場外交易津貼有任何影響？您是否會在第四季度對符合 FSA 資格的產品或符合 FSA 資格的產品進行某種沖刷，這反而強調了所有 OTC 的季節性？

Great. Let me do this. Let me mention OTC China. I'll touch on your U.S. question. I'll have Tobias talk about the status of the joint venture. So first of all, in OTC in China, if you remember a year ago, when COVID lockdowns came off, also, sales restrictions on our products like Fenbid, which is an ibuprofen pain reliever and contact holden flu product. We saw a significant demand for 2 reasons. On sales, restrictions were taken off and COVID went through the country and we treat those symptoms. So very proud of the way our China organization will react from a supply chain demand with (inaudible) overnight, and we're able to really react and help meet that demand.

偉大的。讓我來做這個。我要提一下OTC中國。我會談談你的美國問題。我會讓托比亞斯談談合資企業的狀況。首先，在中國的非處方藥領域，如果你還記得一年前，當新冠疫情封鎖解除時，我們的產品（如芬必得）也受到銷售限制，芬必得是一種布洛芬止痛藥和接觸性霍頓流感產品。我們看到巨大的需求有兩個原因。在銷售方面，限制被取消，新冠疫情席捲全國，我們對這些症狀進行治療。我們對我們的中國組織在一夜之間（聽不清楚）對供應鏈需求做出反應的方式感到非常自豪，我們能夠真正做出反應並幫助滿足該需求。

And that certainly will be a factor for our China business in Q1 and Q2 as we look forward now. That's already incorporated into our Q1 guidance. We said we'll be slightly below our full year 4% to 6% guidance. But overall, we feel very good about that market and our business there, and it grew at healthy double digits in 2023.

正如我們現在所期望的那樣，這肯定會成為我們第一季和第二季中國業務的一個因素。這已經納入我們的第一季指引中。我們表示，全年成長率將略低於 4% 至 6% 的指導值。但總體而言，我們對該市場和我們在那裡的業務感覺非常好，並且在 2023 年實現了健康的兩位數成長。

Our North American growth and the impact of the FSA, really no impact to speak up. We think they're good to have in place, and it's good that people can use those funds in a tax-free way to buy OTC products, but I would say there would be no analysis that we have to say ahead of any material impact on our business.

我們北美的成長和FSA的影響，確實沒有影響可言。我們認為它們到位是件好事，而且人們可以以免稅的方式使用這些資金購買場外交易產品，但我想說的是，在產生任何重大影響之前，我們不會說任何分析關於我們的業務。

Tobias, do you want to talk the China joint venture?

托比亞斯，你想談談中國合資企業嗎？

Yes. So look, on the China joint venture. So we're in -- as you can imagine, we're in discussions with our partner. I mean, I've said before, this is a joint venture, I think, where both partners need each other. And I think so we're very confident on the continuation of the joint venture, and we would update throughout the year if there's anything that would change us in that. I think this is a joint venture that has done well for us. We're very happy with the performance. Our partner is very happy with the performance. So I think from our perspective, no concerns on that. And if there's any material change, we would, of course, tell you timely.

是的。那麼看看中國的合資企業。所以，正如你可以想像的那樣，我們正在與我們的合作夥伴進行討論。我的意思是，我之前說過，我認為這是一家合資企業，雙方都需要彼此。我認為我們對合資企業的持續發展非常有信心，如果有任何事情會改變我們，我們將全年更新。我認為這是一家對我們來說做得很好的合資企業。我們對演出非常滿意。我們的合作夥伴對我們的表現非常滿意。所以我認為從我們的角度來看，對此沒有任何擔憂。如果有任何重大變化，我們當然會及時通知您。

And also from a phasing point of view, I think, in the back of my deck, you see, I mean, remember Fenbid but not all the Fenbid growth last year is going to disappear again because Fenbid came back from a reduced use because it was blocked for sales before. So we're going to retain some of that upside. And then, you also -- we have seen very strong and continued success on the other categories in China. Caltrate, you've seen that in my deck, I've shared the sellout numbers that we had on that brand. That's our largest brand in China.

而且從分階段的角度來看，我認為，在我的套牌後面，你看，我的意思是，記住芬必得，但去年芬必得的所有增長不會再次消失，因為芬必得從減少使用中恢復過來，因為它之前曾被禁止銷售。因此，我們將保留一些優勢。然後，我們也看到中國在其他類別上取得了非常強勁且持續的成功。 Caltrate，您已經在我的牌組中看到了，我分享了該品牌的銷售數據。這是我們在中國最大的品牌。

Sensodyne had a weaker half 1 last year and started to perform very well in the second half of the year, so we go with good momentum into the year. So you have some offsets in other part of the category in China. So it's not just the Fenbid. And as a result, confident that China will be a growth contributor and will be additive to good growth in 2024 as well for the full year.

舒適達去年上半年表現較弱，下半年開始表現良好，因此我們以良好的勢頭進入今年。因此，在中國該類別的其他部分有一些抵消。所以這不僅僅是芬必得。因此，我們相信中國將成為成長的貢獻者，並將為 2024 年以及全年的良好成長做出貢獻。

Maybe we'll take one more question.

也許我們會再問一個問題。

We have a follow-up question from David Hayes, Jefferies.

我們有來自 Jefferies 的 David Hayes 的後續問題。

Sorry to come back. Just want to completely clarify the share buyback, which I may have not quite cool. So the GBP 500 million, you kind of mentioned that, that may be impacted the way you use that by what GSK and Pfizer do. So just to be clear, you could, for example, GBP 500 million in the first 6 months of the year, nothing in the back half if the dynamics are what they choose to do made that attractive? And then I guess if you are maybe to do more divestments in the year, that GBP 500 million could change? This is not something you agreed locked in with the Board. You could be flexible on that and maybe do more in the second half of the balance sheet flexibility was to get more favorable, is that is that both fair comments?

抱歉回來了。只是想徹底澄清股票回購，我可能不太懂。您提到了 5 億英鎊，這可能會受到葛蘭素史克和輝瑞的使用方式的影響。因此，需要明確的是，例如，您可以在今年的前 6 個月中投入 5 億英鎊，而後半段則沒有任何內容，如果他們選擇做的動態使其具有吸引力的話？然後我想如果你今年可能會進行更多的撤資，那麼 5 億英鎊可能會改變嗎？這不是您同意與董事會鎖定的事情。你可以對此保持靈活性，也許在資產負債表的下半年做更多的事情，靈活性是為了獲得更有利的結果，這是公平的評論嗎？

So first of all, look, I think we've allocated GBP 500 million of capital for share buybacks. We're going to do GBP 500 million. How we do it? We want to do it in the best possible way. And I think preferably if there would be a placing, it would be through that because we get a discount, yes. Now we're going to do it in 2024. So that's the timing we have set for that. So we have to -- have the cash, and we'll do that flexibly in the most efficient way for the shareholders. I think you understood that part correctly.

首先，我認為我們已經分配了 5 億英鎊的資金用於股票回購。我們將投入 5 億英鎊。我們怎麼做呢？我們希望以盡可能最好的方式做到這一點。我認為最好如果有一個地方，那就是透過它，因為我們得到折扣，是的。現在我們將在 2024 年實現這一目標。這就是我們為此設定的時間。因此，我們必須擁有現金，並且我們將以最有效的方式為股東靈活地做到這一點。我認為你正確地理解了那部分。

In terms of capital allocation decision. So I mean, look, if we would do a exactly, we laid out the thing in my presentation, the new capital allocation framework, right? And I think one thing that doesn't change is the high cash-generative nature of that business. So if we're in a situation that we have excess cash, like we have now coming through towards the end of the year and plus the divestment. We sit down and go through the 3 buckets, have we invested properly in the business. Tick. We've done that, then you move on to either any bolt-on or any M&A opportunities that are commercially compelling and accretive in value. And then lastly, if none of those exist, then we will look at what to do with the excess cash.

在資本配置決策方面。所以我的意思是，看，如果我們願意，我們在我的演講中列出了新的資本配置框架，對嗎？我認為不變的一件事是該業務的高現金產出性質。因此，如果我們處於現金過剩的情況，就像我們現在在年底前完成的那樣，再加上撤資。我們坐下來審視這三個方面，看看我們對業務的投資是否正確。打鉤。我們已經做到了這一點，然後您就可以轉向任何具有商業吸引力和增值價值的補充或併購機會。最後，如果這些都不存在，那麼我們將考慮如何處理多餘的現金。

So we would look at, does it make sense to pay down more of the debt? Or does it make sense to return it, for example, via shareholders? And we're going to share via buybacks or via dividends. So -- and I think, that's exactly how we came to the decision because share buybacks are at the moment the best way and the most value-accretive way what we can do with that excess cash, and that's why we made a decision to allocate GBP 500 million to share buyback. We would go exactly to that same logic if and when the situation would arise that we have excess cash on our hands.

因此，我們會考慮，償還更多債務是否有意義？或透過股東等方式返還有意義？我們將透過回購或股利來分享。所以——我認為，這正是我們做出決定的原因，因為股票回購是目前我們利用多餘現金的最佳方式和最具增值價值的方式，這就是為什麼我們決定分配5億英鎊用於股票回購。如果出現我們手上有多餘現金的情況，我們會採取完全相同的邏輯。

Okay. Great. Great. Thanks, David. Okay. Great. Listen, thanks very much, everyone. I always appreciate your time and the engagement and your questions. It's been another successful year of delivery for Haleon, building on our track record as a stand-alone company. I feel really confident about the year ahead, and we remain well positioned to deliver our 2024 and our medium-term guidance. So I hope you all have a good rest of the day. And if there's any further questions, as always, feel free to reach out to Sonya and the Investor Relations team. Thanks again.

好的。偉大的。偉大的。謝謝，大衛。好的。偉大的。聽著，非常感謝大家。我始終感謝您的時間、參與和您的問題。今年是 Haleon 交付成功的另一年，我們建立了作為獨立公司的良好記錄。我對未來一年充滿信心，我們仍然有能力實現 2024 年和中期指導。所以我希望大家今天都能好好休息。如果還有其他問題，一如既往，請隨時聯繫索尼婭和投資者關係團隊。再次感謝。

Ladies and gentleman, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing chorus call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，會議現在結束了。感謝您選擇合唱團，也感謝您參加本次會議。現在您可以斷開線路。再見。