Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2022 Results and Full Year 2023 Guidance Presentation for Hillman Solutions Corporation. My name is Kyle, and I'll be your conference call operator today. Before we begin, I would like to remind our listeners that today's presentation is being recorded and simultaneously webcast. The company's earnings release and presentation were issued this morning. These documents and a replay of today's presentation can be accessed on Hillman's Investor Relations website at ir.hillmangroup.com. Please note that the company expects to file its Form 10-K on Monday, February 27th. I would now like to turn the call over to Michael Koehler with Hillman.

Thank you, Kyle. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm Michael Koehler, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Joining me on today's call are Doug Cahill, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Rocky Kraft, our Chief Financial Officer. Doug will begin today's call with an overview of Tolman's differentiated strategy, some operational and financial highlights for the year followed by a quick vision update. Then Rocky will give a financial overview of Q4 and 2022 as well as our full year guidance for 2023. Before we begin, I would like to remind our audience that certain statements made on today's call may be considered forward-looking and are subject to the safe harbor provisions of applicable securities laws. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors, many of which are beyond the company's control and may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in such statements.

Some of the factors that could influence our results are contained in our periodic and annual reports filed with the SEC. For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties, please see Slide 2 in our earnings call slide presentation, which is available on our website at ir.hillmangroup.com. In addition, on today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding our use of and reconciliations of these measures to our GAAP results are available in our earnings call slide presentation. With that, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to our Chairman, President and CEO, Doug Cahill. Doug?

Thanks, Michael. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Before I get into the call this morning, I want to take this opportunity to thank team Hillman, the 1,100 warriors we have out in the stores, our distribution center employees who keep the products flowing and our entire customer support team, which I am a proud member of. Thanks to everyone's efforts, we were able to successfully navigate and grow our top and bottom line in a dynamic and challenging 2022 and expect to do it again in 2023. We continue to outperform the competition by doing things the Hillman way. On behalf of the entire management team, we want to say thank you, and keep up the great work. Hillman was founded on the principle of customer service and our legacy of service has been built over the past 9 years. 

This company has been successful because it has always taken care of its customers and found unique ways to do things that our competitors can't, especially during the past 3 years. I know Mick and Rick Hellman, who ran the company for 40 years are proud of how this team has performed, and I am too. 2022 is no exception. We averaged 96% fill rate, which is up from 91% during 2021 and 95% during 2020. This means that we took great care of our customers. And as our products were on their shelves when the pickup truck Pro and the DIY were at the shelf. When you take care of your customers, good things happen. For example, we delivered full year adjusted EBITDA at the high end of our guidance range we gave in November, and we earned a number of new business wins and awards during the year. 

Over the long haul, since our founding in 1964, taking care of our customers has allowed Hillman to become one of the largest and most profitable providers of hardware products and value-added solutions at leading hardware and home improvement retailers across North America. Many, if not all of you have heard me say that we've had only 1 data year in our 59-year history. This consistent growth and resiliency has been fueled not only by our care for our customers, but by our business model and our competitive moat.

Our moat, which drove healthy results for the year and differentiates us from our competition consists of 3 main pillars: #1, we deliver over 80% of our 112,000 SKUs directly to retail locations of our customers with industry-leading fill rates. This means our customers always have what they need and don't have to worry about managing Hillman inventory in their distribution centers. #2, our sales and service team of 1,100 warriors provides world-class service at the shelf and are embedded with our retail customers. This team ensures that Hillman's mission-critical, high-margin products are in stock organized and optimized for our retail customers and their consumers. 

And #3, over 90% of our revenue comes from brands beyond. These brands stand for quality and reliability, and we're constantly innovating and rolling out new products. This is not only important to the consumer and Pro but allows us to expand and tailor our products and our brands to specific retailer strategies. To put the 3 pillars in perspective in 2 of our top 5 accounts, our products make up on average, about 22% of their total SKUs in the entire store and are included in over 12% of their transactions. This is exactly why we call our products mission-critical and we use the term better when we talk about how Hillman serves our retail partners. This is why we win with our customers and constantly grow our business.

Our performance during the challenging environment in the past 3 years has paid dividends for us. We've been successful winning on average, $25 million in new business per year in our hardware and protected business from 2021 to 2023. And as we look forward to 2024, we have $27 million in new business already awarded, and it's only February. 

This success proves that our model works and our past performance continues to be rewarded by our retail partners. Now I'd like to frame up our financial highlights for the year. Overall, I'm pleased with how our team successfully navigated the choppy environment resulting from ramp in inflation in our cost and massive disruption in the global supply chain. Since the beginning of 2021, we've implemented $225 million of price increases to fully offset cost inflation on a dollar-for-dollar basis.

At the same time, we've managed our fill rates as sourcing lead times ballooned in 2021 and then shrunk dramatically since early 2022 with a corresponding spike and now finally, reduction in our inventory levels. Moving to our top line for 2022. Net sales grew 4.2% to $1.46 billion. The increase was driven by the implementation of price increases over the past year, partially offset by the volume decline. Excluding the 53rd week of our sales in 2022, net sales grew 3.1%. 

For 2022, we generated $210.2 million of adjusted EBITDA, an increase of 1.4% from 2021. Now let's touch on the performance of each of our businesses during the year. Hardware Solutions is our biggest business and makes up over 55% of our overall revenue. For the year, hardware sales saw 13% revenue growth compared to 2021 or 12% excluding the 53rd week. Price increases were the main driver of the top line increase, offset by a decline in volume of just under 3%. And Hardware Solutions is the bellwether of our business, and we're encouraged by the trends we're seeing so far in 2023. Robotics and Digital Solutions, or RDS, makes up about 15% of our overall revenue. RDS gross margins were 70.2%, and our adjusted EBITDA margins were 32.2%, respectively, and our market share is strong. For the year, RDS revenue was roughly flat or down 1% when excluding the 53rd week as discretionary items like key accessories and pet tag and graving were down roughly 15% from peak volumes in 2021.

Additionally, Smart Auto Fob duplication declined as used car sales decreased 11% from 2021 to their lowest number since 2013. And Offsetting these declines was a 17% increase in revenue from our self-serve key duplication kiosk business, Mini Key. RDS is a key driver of highly profitable long-term growth. As we talked about last quarter, we've been working with our major key duplication and engraving customers and jointly developing our next-generation digital kiosks for both technologies, which we expect to reignite our long-term growth in this business. Our top 3 minute key customers have been to our manufacturing facility in Tempe, Arizona, where they were able to see our new technology with their own eyes. The feedback and interest is excellent, and we are encouraged about the growth opportunities these kiosks reset in 2024 and beyond. Mini Key, 3.5 is our new self-serve key duplication kiosk with smart Auto Fob duplication technology, which will be ready for the market late this year and into early 2024.

 QuickTake 3.0 is our new engraving machine that will be introduced throughout 2023. We plan to place over 800 new machines this year, and by the end of the year, we'll have around 1,000 new QuickTake 3.0 machines in service. We're really excited about this new machine because it gives the pet owner 26 different tag options to choose from, up from only 6 options in our existing machine, and we're relocating the new machines inside the pet department of one of our top 5 retailers for the first time. We've also placed this machine in Disney World, Disneyland, SeaWorld and Universal Studios with excellent feedback and performance over the first 90 days.

Regarding our next sharpening machine reshape, we ended 2022 with approximately 1,000 machines at select based hardwares across the country. This machine is truly one of a kind, and we have over 100 stores sharpening close to full night and day, creating excitement for the store owner and the consumer with the leading marketing concept being word-of-mouth from one consumer to the other. 

While challenges sourcing chips and boards continue to throw our production of these machines, we see that abating during the second half of 2023. Meanwhile, we're testing this one-of-a-kind nice sharpening machine in new channels, including specialty retailers, food service and restaurant supply, outdoor sporting and recreational retailers and a leading Canadian retailer. We believe that we can garner interest outside of the traditional hardware channel and likely be in the position to ramp up production as the chip and board shortage ends and consumers and retailers embrace this new technology. Our Protective Solutions business makes up 15% of our overall revenue.

And for the year, protective revenues decreased about 15%. However, if COVID-related PPE sales are excluded from both periods and the 53rd week is excluded, protective revenues increased about 1%. Our firm grip brand, which is exclusive to the Home Depot is their top-selling work glove brand. Promotional execution in this category is critical. We had an excellent 2022 in that area. For 2023, we already have a robust promotional plan in place with Depot, specifically for the firm grip brand that we're really excited about. As we tell the sales guys, stack it high and watch it fly. 

Lastly, our Canadian segment, which makes up about 10% of our overall revenue, built on momentum and has seen throughout the year. Canada posted a 5% top line increase for the year with its bottom line nearly doubling versus 2021. We're pleased to achieve this double-digit adjusted EBITDA margins out of our Canadian business. The long-lasting relationship and deep partnerships we have with our customers, along with the end markets we serve, give us confidence as we look to the future. We provide our customers merchandising solutions for the most complex categories. These are the things they don't get from the competition, like direct store shipments and in-store service at the shelf from our team. As I mentioned earlier, we have implemented a total of approximately $225 million in price increases since the beginning of 2021. These costs break down to approximately $120 million of transportation and shipping, $90 million of commodities and $15 million of labor. 

Over the past several months, we've seen some of these costs come down like ocean container costs, which will be a tailwind for us in the second half of the year. While some costs remain high like labor and outbound freight, we expect our margins to expand once these container cost reductions flow into our income statement beginning in the second half of '23 and into 2024. As I touched on earlier, we saw lead times increase dramatically as the supply chain tightened during 2021. We made the strategic decision to invest in our inventory to protect fill rates. This resulted in a continuing to take care of our customers, but also in us carrying more inventory than we have in normal supply chain environments. This investment has and will continue to yield new business wins and is another example of why we have long-standing relationships with our customers from the board level to the store level. 

Lead times from Asia have improved to around 160 days over the past 6 months or so, which is vastly better than the 250-plus day lead times the industry experienced in January of 2022. As such, we have started to bring down our inventory levels and delever our balance sheet as we turn that inventory to cash with no adverse impact to our customers and our fill rates. We ended 2022 with almost $100 million more inventory than we would have in normal supply chain environment. This is an improvement of approximately $85 million from our peak this past summer. Our inventory decreased by approximately $45 million during the fourth quarter of 2022, and we believe that we will further reduce our inventory by at least another $50 million during 2023. The great news about this is that our fill rates will still lead the industry, and this inventory will turn to cash, and we will delever during 2023. 

As we look at 2023, it's important to remember that we have a diverse, resilient business with 112,000 SKUs, serving 40,000 customer locations across our coast-to-coast footprint spanning North America. The vast majority of our products are used by pickup truck pros and DIRs to repair, remodel and maintain homes. Our business performs well throughout economic cycles and not dependent on new home construction that never has been. Remember, we started this business serving a small -- the small independent hardware stores.

This segment makes up today about 20% of our business and remains a critical component to our growth as we have seen 9% sales CAGR over the past 5 years in this segment. We believe our repair and remodeling end markets are well positioned for the following reasons. #1, the North American housing industry continues to be in short supply as housing starts are below historical averages and fewer homeowners are willing to sell today with over 90% of mortgages having fixed interest rates. This means the buyers can't buy and the sellers that won't sell will be spending on their existing homes. 

#2, the U.S. home continue to age with now over 50% of U.S. homes over 40 years old. #3, trends in nesting Asian in place, working from home and outdoor living remain prominent and consumers will continue to invest in their homes. And finally, since our founding 59 years ago, our consistent growth through economic cycles has proven that repair, remodel and maintenance projects happen no matter the economic environment. In fact, there's only been 1 year where our top line did not grow in our 59-year history and that was during the great financial crisis of 2009. This gives us a great deal of confidence heading into 2023. We're pleased with the progress we've made as a company, navigating in and out of COVID during the past 3 years, and we remain focused on capitalizing on the unique opportunities ahead. 

Some of our larger customers are predicting unit volumes to increase, albeit modestly during 2023 in our main product categories. However, with some of the economic uncertainty around the health of the consumer and a possible economic slowdown, we're taking a more conservative approach and are planning for total volumes to be flat to slightly down. Fortunately, we project our implemented price increases and new business wins will more than offset any potential market volume decline, and we're off to a strong start so far in 2023. With that, let me turn it over to Rocky, who looks better than he sounds today. He's fighting a bit of a cold, and that's what happens when the temperature goes from 70 to 35 during the week in Cincinnati. So Rocky, good luck.

Thanks, Doug. It sounds like I'm going through puberty. I apologize. Before I get into our guidance for 2023, I'll provide a quick summary for our fourth quarter and our year-end results. I'd also like to point out that our top line for the quarter and year was impacted by the 53rd week of sales during 2022, but that did not have a meaningful impact on our bottom line. Net sales in the fourth quarter of 2022 increased 1.8% to $350.7 million versus the prior year quarter. Excluding the 53rd week, net sales decreased by 2.8%. The fourth quarter results were driven by price, offset by a decrease in volumes. 2022 full year net sales increased 4.2% to $1.49 billion, the top end of our revised guidance range of $1.46 billion to $1.5 billion. Excluding the 53rd week, net sales increased 3.1%. Hardware Solutions increased 12% and Canada increased 5%, contributing to the overall increase. This was offset by a 16% decline in Protective Solutions, while RDS was down 1% for the year. 

The significant decline in RDS was driven by COVID-related sales in 2021 but did not recur at the same levels in 2022. Note that all of the aforementioned numbers all exclude the 53rd week. Adjusted earnings per diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2022 was $0.05 per share compared to $0.06 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. For the full year 2022, adjusted earnings per diluted share was $0.43 per share compared to $0.51 per diluted share during 2021. Fourth quarter adjusted gross profit margin increased over 260 basis points to 43.4% versus the prior year quarter. Sequentially, margins improved by 10 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2022. For the full year 2022, adjusted gross profit margin increased over 60 basis points to 43% from 42.4% during 2021. Q4 2022 adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales increased to 31% from 30% during the year ago quarter. For 2022, adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales increased to 29% from 28%. 

This analysis backs out stock-based comp, acquisition and integration expenses, legal fees and restructuring costs, which we feel gives a better analysis of our base expenses. At a high level, increases in SG&A were driven by increased shipping and labor costs prior to price increases going into effect with our customers. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter increased 16.5% to $45 million compared to $38.6 million in the year ago quarter. This is the second consecutive quarter that adjusted EBITDA has exceeded the comparable year ago quarter and it was at the high end of our expectations. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was driven by a healthy mix of price cost, partially offset by higher cost of goods sold. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2022 full year increased 1.4% to $210.2 million compared to $207.4 million in the year ago quarter. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was driven by a healthy mix of price cost, partially offset by higher COGS and the timing of price increases. Further driving the increase during the year was a lift from strong earnings from our Canadian business. 

Now let me turn to our cash flow and balance sheet. During 2022, operating activities generated $119 million of cash as compared to using $110.3 million in 2021. As discussed, during 2021, we invested into inventory to protect fill rates, and that investment began to turn into cash in '22 as we saw lead times moderate. Capital expenditures for the year were $70 million compared to $52 million in 2021. We continue to invest in our RDS kiosks and merchandising racks for new business wins. These are important parts of our high-return CapEx initiatives. Free cash flow for the year totaled $49.4 million versus negative $161.8 million in 2021. Impacting our cash flow results for 2022 was the settlement and additional related legal expenses from the Hico litigation, which totaled $33 million during the year. At year-end, net debt improved by $43 million to $888 million versus $931 million at the end of 2021. 

We ended the year with approximately $229 million of liquidity, which consists of $198 million of available borrowing under our revolving credit facility and $31 million of cash and cash equivalents. Our net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA ratio at the end of the quarter was 4.2x, which improved from 4.5x at the end of Q3 and 4.7x at the end of the second quarter. Our long-term net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio target remains unchanged at below 3x, and we think that we will end 2023 around 3.5x, assuming we come in around the midpoint of our guidance. Speaking of guidance, let me spend a few minutes talking about our outlook for 2023 and how the price/cost dynamics will impact our income statement and results for the year. For 2023, we anticipate full year net sales to be between $1.45 billion to $1.55 billion. Our net sales of midpoint of $1.5 billion represents an increase of about 1% from 2022. 

Our long-term algorithm demonstrates 6% annual top line growth. This consists of approximately 1% price and 5% volume growth. The 5% volume growth is made up of 2% to 3% market growth, which looks a lot like GDP and 2% to 3% growth from new business wins. To unpack our top line guidance for 2023 a bit further, our midpoint takes in approximately 2% growth from price that will roll from 2022 and assumes volume growth is down 1%. This includes new business wins, offset by modest market pressure and us lapping remaining PPE sales during 2022. As you would expect, our top line is going to be dependent upon sales volume at our customers, which is predominantly driven by the POS. Our ability to win new business, coupled with the strength of the consumer, the health of the economy and housing market will impact our results. For our bottom line, we expect full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA will total between $215 million to $235 million. The midpoint of $225 million represents an increase of about 7% versus 2022. 

We expect to see some leverage this year with our bottom line results beginning in Q3 as we get on the right side of the power curve when it comes to price cost. Specifically, we anticipate gross margins in the first quarter of 2023 to decline sequentially versus Q4 of 2022 as our highest priced inventory begins to flow through the income statement. We will then see modest sequential margin improvement during Q2. Then during the second half of 2023, we anticipate margins in excess of our normalized rate of 44% to 45%. Lastly, free cash flow for full year 2023 is expected to come in between $125 million to $145 million with a midpoint of $135 million. Please keep in mind these guidance figures are made with the full following full year assumptions. We anticipate cash interest expense will be in the $55 million to $65 million range. Cash taxes will be between $5 million and $10 million. CapEx will be between $65 million and $75 million. 

Restructuring related and other cash expenses will total approximately $10 million. We will have approximately 198 million shares outstanding, and we will see a working capital benefit of between $50 million and $70 million, driven by a $50 million reduction in inventory. Given the timing of inventory reduction moving into the first quarter of this year, we expect to invest less into working capital during the first quarter of 2023 versus prior years. To be specific, over the past 3 years, we increased working capital about $40 million during the first quarter of the year as we built in inventory levels going into the spring. We ever during the first quarter of 2023, we are confident we will need less than half of that figure, but do expect that our leverage ratio will increase modestly at the end of the first quarter. As we have said in the past, we expect 2023 to be the tale of 2 very different halves. 

During the first half of '23, we expect to see adjusted EBITDA down compared to 2022 in the high single-digit percentage range with a steeper decline during the first quarter of '23 compared to '22. This is substantially the result of highest cost goods as sold perhaps in the history of Hillman flowing out of inventory into our income statement during the first half of the year, peaking in February, March and April. Further impacting our first quarter results will be the relocation of one of our distribution centers from Rialto, California to Kansas City. By making this move, we will avoid a significant increase in operating costs as our rent was going to quadruple,. By the second quarter of this year, we believe we will be fully integrated with this new hub and spoke distribution center and our costs will actually improve on a go-forward basis when compared to our previous operating cost at the Rialto DC. 

We will maintain our distribution center near Bakersfield, California that has been in service since 1990. During the second half of 2023, we expect to see adjusted EBITDA up compared to 2022 in the low 20 percentage range as our COGS reflect the new lower cost we are seeing today. This is mainly due to us finally being on the right side of the price/cost equation. One of our main areas of focus over the past 2 years was covering our costs through the execution of 4 major price increases. While we recognize that we have never been in an environment like the one we are in today, historically, we have not given price back dollar for dollar when inflation cools nor have we seen our retailers lower price themselves. Over the past few months, we have seen some costs begin to moderate such as containers, while others remain stubbornly high like labor, drayage and outbound shipping. 

That said, we do expect to benefit from this decline in container prices we are paying for today once these lower costs flow through our P&L, which we expect will begin during the second half of '23 and continue into '24 as I discussed. Our expected cash flows and earnings for 2023 will put us in a position where we can start to play offense and use our strengthened balance sheet to execute low-risk, sweet spot tuck-in acquisitions or capitalized on other accretive opportunities that may present themselves. Looking further out, our long-term growth algorithm remains intact. We think 6% organic net sales and high single to low double-digit EBITDA growth is achievable in an economic environment where we are state 2% to 3% GDP growth. As we look forward, we believe that our competitive moat and long-standing relationships with customers will allow us to continue to win and to perform at or above our stated growth algorithm over the longer term. Doug, back to you.

Good job, man. Thanks, Rocky. Hillman is a good business when things are good. But in '23, we have the opportunity to show you that Hillman is a surprisingly good business when the economy is less certain. We're excited about the normalization of global supply chain as we will no longer need the excess inventory we invested in over the past 2 years to provide the industry-leading fill rates for our customers. Even if we had a moat again, we would invest again because it helped widen Hillman's moat versus the rest of our competitors and will pay dividends for Hillman and our investors for a year to come. I've been with Hillman since 2014, and I've never seen us in a better position with our customers and suppliers. The Hillman moat is strong. Our end markets are healthy and resilient. We believe we are the best partner for fasteners and hardware products in North America. As we look forward, I know we have the right team to get things done, and we're committed to drive long-term value for our customers, shareholders and employees. With that, we'll begin the Q&A portion of the call, Kyle. Can you please open the call up for questions.

Sure. (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Lee Jagoda from CJS Securities.

Just can we start with the Canadian segment in Q4? It looks like margin had a little bit of a step back in the quarter. Can you speak to whether that's a 1 quarter issue? What caused it? And how should we think about 2023 as it relates to the fourth quarter numbers?

Yes. Lee, I think as we've said historically, I said it for a couple of quarters, we kind of became a broken record that we didn't expect that, that business would have a 17% EBITDA margins given the mix of industrial business. But we do expect, as you think about '23 and forward, that should be a 10% to 12% EBITDA margin type business. The important thing to remember about Canada, even compared to our U.S. retail business, it is much more cyclical just given the weather and seasonal -- yes, sorry, given the weather. And so as you think about the first and fourth quarter, always seasonably weaker in Canada, stronger in the second and third, and then the only final comment I would make, when we talked about the 53rd week when we did you didn't hear us talk about Canada because they were closed for that last week, but we still have expenses relative to what happens in that business in that 50 30 weeks that has a little bit of pressure in the fourth quarter.

Got it. So then I guess just looking at the quarter on a year-over-year basis next year, we shouldn't see a loss in Q4 next year because you don't have that 53-week dynamic. Is that fair?

That's correct. We would expect the care that would make money on all the quarters next year.

Okay. And then just one more for me, and I'll let others ask. Just Doug, I know you touched a little bit about sort of the growth that you're going to see in robotics starting in 2024 based on a whole bunch of these new products and refresh products coming online. Can you get a little more specific about, I guess, one, the timing of some of these product launches? And then if you take a 3-year look and look at the next 3 years, how should we think about all of this new stuff that's coming into the market, translating into growth and margin expansion for that segment?

Good question. I mean, we're super site, first of all, that it's -- the QuickTake 3 is in the places you want to be, right? It's coming out of the block is strong. It provides something for the consumer. We're going to have 800 machines rolled out this year and 1,000 in that one retailer plus those Disney Universal Studios and places like that. So that's a big part of our capital plan this year, and I think we'll start to see that as we get those machines out. When you think about 3.5, which is our ability to take our many key self-serve kiosks and let it do what it does today, but we'll also be able to duplicate technology for Smart Fob, which we've never been able to do. That's an early '24 rollout, and it's just hard to say how that will ramp. At the same time, you're going to have a resharp,I think, growing nicely. And so Rocky, we've historically said we look for...

Yes, low double-digit growth in RDS. I think in the current year based into our guidance, would be high single digits. But again, we'll look for them to do double digits as we think about them outperforming what we have in our existing guidance

For our next question, it comes from the line for Ruben Garner from Benchmark.

Rocky, you do look better than you sound. So hopefully, Doug can help with these questions. Pricing up 2% in the outlook this year. Can you maybe give us a little bit more detail or context there? Is that assuming any of the pricing actions over the last few years have to go backwards at some point? So meaning you may be up more than that in the first half and down year-over-year in the second. Any color there would be helpful.

So Ruben, we've got a few little pieces of business that are so tied to steel prices in the steelworks. So rods, shapes and sheets that are on a quarterly adjustment, it's less than 5% of our business. So that would adjust every quarter, both directions, irregardless over the years. But taking that out, we essentially have 2% coming across from this year. And to answer your question, we don't have any assumptions in there on prices coming down because if you really think about it, take steel, for example, steel had declined, particularly China steel throughout 2022. But since November 15, steel is up 15%, and it's half of its exchange rate and half of it steel. You also saw probably this week, steel prices up a bit in the U.S. announced by 2 players outbound. So there's some stubbornly high stuff and things like steel and nickel have actually started to go back up. So I think we're going to be fine in that regard. But no, our assumption is the 2% is from what has been done.

Understood. And then on the volume side, I think you said down -- you guys down 1%, and that includes share gains, and it sounds like RDS is still going to have a potentially good year, growing high single digits. Does that imply that you're assuming the market is down closer to mid-single digits? And if so, I'm just curious, it sounds like at least listening to the retailers, hardware has been outperforming the company average. And I think one of your big customers, the other day suggested a flattish market. Would there be any reason why hardware would underperform kind of the home improvement this year? Is there still some difficult comps within hardware. Specifically, are you guys have taken a very conservative approach given the uncertainty.

Yes. So what I would say there, Ruben, is you have to start with we're going to lose 2% relative to COVID when you talk about year-over-year. And so our midpoint of our guidance assumes that overall, our markets are down 1%. The range of guidance is kind of down 4% to up 1%. We would tell you, we've not seen that. Year-to-date, we're actually up, call it, low to mid-single digits from a units perspective. And so we're just being cautious because of where the economy is and everything you read in the press. But so far to date, we're planning down 1 with a range of down 4% to up 2%. And I would tell you we're at the high end of that through 45 days.

Yes. And Ruben, I'd say 2 things to that. When you look at footsteps, not hardware, but you look at home improvement by retailers last year, put steps down 14%. Obviously, we didn't see that. And then your favorite new product lumber is interesting because when you look at lumber prices and you know they've fallen out of the sky, that's not good for a retailer's comp, but holy smokes, is that good for excuse. So we're kind of the ones that root for lumber prices to be where they are versus where they were. But it's funny how that becomes a headwind for a retailer because if you're selling at 400 versus 1,400, you've got to sell a bunch more lumber. But for Dextro, that makes a big difference. So I think we're being conservative would be the answer.

For our next question, it comes from the line of Ryan Merkel from William Blair.

I wanted to ask about volumes up. I think you said low single digits to mid-single digits so far. I get it. We're not quite in like the season yet, but anything that's driving that? Is it the market holding up better? Is it share gains kicking in? Just a little help there?

Yes. I would say 2 things. One, I would say everybody knows what happened in the fourth quarter when retailers could start to take inventories down, both at the store level and at their distribution center level, Ryan, because of all the supply chain things that started to normalize. So that had an impact on everyone, not as much for us. But if you look at our PS business, our gum business, obviously, we sell that through distribution center. There was inventory taken out there in the year. So that would be one thing. The other thing is the weather has been -- I mean we've had more of a spring this year so far that we've had all of last year, and that does help us not to mention lumber prices. So I would say those are probably the 3 things.

Okay. Got it. And then I think price 2% for the year, how does that flow? Is it higher in the first half and then something more flat in the second half?

Yes, that's right. Ryan, as you think about it, in the fourth quarter of next year, we'll have virtually no price in our outlook because we had taken all of our price kind of at the end of the third quarter of 2022. Obviously, it will fully lap as well at that point.

Okay. Perfect. And then just lastly, I just want to make sure I got the gross margin commentary correct. So in the first quarter of '23, should we be thinking like 41.5%, 42% range for gross margin? Is that sort of the peak hit of price/cost?

Yes. That's the way to think about it, Ryan.

We go in for your next question. For your next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann from Jefferies.

And the first thing I wanted to go back to RDS, -- it just sounds like 24 is going to be a pretty big year there with a lot of kind of redesigned equipment. And I'm just curious if any of the economics have changed as you have kind of redesigned these machines? Do they get more expensive? Is there more CapEx? Are the margins any different? Just anything else that might have changed with all these redesigns?

That's a good question. Yes, 2 things. I could talk about QuickTake 3.0 is definitely a more expensive machine than the historical one. But with the uptick we're seeing in what you can sell through that machine, Stephen, I think it's a no-brainer. So that would be a case where, yes, more expensive, but certainly, it will pay for itself from what we've seen so far in the first 90 days.

As far as the 3.5, this is really a fun one for us because we're going to take this machine and we're going to be able to bring new technology to the consumer by being able to copy and the smart 5, which has not been done before by us, and we're going to be able to do your home and office or deal on that machine. And then ultimately, that machine will be an endless aisle because it will essentially be able to copy anything. Now One of the things that we're -- I'm not trying to evade the question, but it's very difficult to really predict is how fast will this ramp. What we know is that the consumer is not happy with the current experience at the dealer. What we know is that the retailers are extremely excited.

And I just think when you think about the foot traffic at a depot, Lowe's and Walmart, who will be the 3 big users of this new technology, it should be a really good one. But we're not going to get out in front of it because we're afraid a little bit that we won't be able to keep up. So in a real quick way to visualize the consumer puts their smart pop in and then we can program it for them at their office at their home at their car. We're super excited about that. We can work with the 2 of our 3 retailers at the store for the Pro as an example, when they're shopping, but there's a lot of things that have to be done to get that done. So I would say it will ramp slowly in the first half, and I think we feel pretty bullish about this for the second half of '24. And again, the $27 million that we've been awarded of new stuff has nothing to do with our RDS.

Stephen, this is Rock. The only thing I would add is if you think about the last couple of years, clearly, Pass have become more expensive to build, just with all the inflation that we've seen across all categories. But we're working with and we'll continue to work with our retailers to make sure that our returns on those machines are appropriate. And there's a lot of different ways we can work with our retailers. But we look at a -- we strive for a 2-year payback. I think early on, some of these machines will probably be in the 2 to 2.5 years, but we're going to work with our retailers to make sure both the economics for them and for helmet are appropriate for us to go build the machines. And right now, we feel really good about it.

Yes. Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then I'm curious, it also sounds like sort of the second half run rate into '24 is going to be pretty impressive. But what happens -- do things then sort of normalize again in '24 to gross margins kind of go back to -- back down again at some point into the more normal range? And is there any price maybe decline that you might expect a couple of points in '24? Just how does that normalize?

Yes. I mean I think as we have been extremely transparent on the way up, we'll work with our customers on the way down to do the right thing. I mean the fortunate thing, Stephen, they've been able to move their retail prices. And again, we don't start to see this until midyear. But I think the answer to your question, over time, we'll see them certainly back to what we think is acceptable. I would think we'll exceed that on RDS historical. But that would say that over time, we will work with our customers to make sure that we're competitive and that if you think about having $225 million or call it a couple of hundred million dollars of increase, it wouldn't be right for us to think we're going to hold on to all of that.

Understood. And then my final kind of longer-term question is, should we think about free cash flow sort of 100% of net income as a more normal run rate? Or is the CapEx that you're going to need to do with the growth sort of going to keep that under 100%?

I think you can think of it that way, Steve, because I don't believe unless we catch fire in a model, which everyone is going to be happy that we're investing in the kiosks. We've been able to run that general range, just given the production capacity. And quite frankly, our ability to install machines at our retail customers. I don't think you can see us go much above that, that call it, $65 million to $75 million of CapEx anytime soon.

For your next question, it comes from the line of Brian Butler from Stifel.

I guess just kind of -- I apologize, I missed a little bit of the first part of this call overlapping. But if you think about the kind of the pace over the year, it sounds like the hardware in Canada is kind of -- the revenues are going to be beneficial in the early -- in the first and second slowdown or at least the growth slows down in the back half, but the margins are the opposite, right? You're going to have more of the pressure in the first half benefiting in the second. One, is that true? And then how does it work for, I guess, the RDS piece as well as PPE? Is PPE just going to be down the whole all of 2023?

Yes. So PPE, we're not going to talk about in '23, is my goal, and I'm not trying to be funny, but I don't think we're going to sell any what we would call COVID-related PPE products in 2023. That will all be the only products we're still in our products that we were in pre-COVID, and we'll continue to sell those at normal levels. When you think about HS, the only thing I would NPS, what I would tell you is while we'll see less price in the back half on the top line, we do anticipate that some of the new business wins that we have as they roll in, we'll see some benefit in the back half of the year. And so I think you're going to see relatively consistent kind of top line growth in that HPS segment. As you think about the full year, it's not going to be kind of front-end loaded or back end loaded.

Okay. And then RDS is kind of a little back-end loaded, right, as all these projects begin to ramp and you have an exit rate that's much higher going into '24. That's the right way to look.

Yes. I would say RDS will be ramping 24. And the QuickTake 3 will ramp throughout the year. But it will -- I think as Rocky points out, we're going to have a solid year in RDS, and then we're really excited about what we think we can put together a 2'4 and '25.

Okay. And then maybe one on M&A. Just kind of maybe go into more detail kind of what are your thoughts here looking at what may be a slower 2023 overall in the market? Is there opportunities there? What are your thoughts in 2023 and maybe going into '24 beyond?

Yes. I mean we're super excited because I think we got a bit lucky. There's just no -- there's not been much of a credit market out there, and there have been very few deals, as you guys know. We still continue to talk to folks and the people that we talk to most about acquisitions are our customers because they'll tell us where to go. They'll tell us what they want, they'll tell us what they'd like us to do. And that's just a great way to grow is when your customers saying, hey, think about this and think about that. And so yes, we probably are in 4, 5, 6 discussions right now with nothing imminent because we want to focus really on getting this leverage down.

But I'm excited about it because it's a pretty easy thing to sit down with an entrepreneur or even a private equity-owned business and show them why joining Hillman will be significantly different for them. and how we can do things that they couldn't do. And then immediately, we think we have an open door with all of our customers at the right level. So pretty excited about that. And we actually, as I said, I think we got lucky that a lot of deals have not taken place because it just has been very little market, particularly for the private equity folks who want to lever things.

Okay. Great. And then last one for me, just on kind of the inventory coming down. Can we talk about the benefit? I mean, that seems like you're going to see it in 2023, but is there a 2024 piece of it that kind of has a tail that isn't large enough that it's worth talking about?

It's a good question. I don't think so because as we think about the business, we probably -- we've historically said we had about $10 million of growth to build working capital about $10 million a year in order to keep up with the growth in the business. I think that's relatively still the case, except for 2023. So I think you're going to see it come down. We bring inventory down pretty dramatically in '23. And then I think as we go into '24 and '25, you're going to see those numbers become more static and will be kind of flat to slightly up to fuel growth in the business.

All right. So presenters, I'm not seeing any questions at some time. right. So this concludes the Q&A portion of today's call. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Cahill for some closing comments.

Thanks, Kyle, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. We'd like to thank our customers, our vendors and importantly, our hardworking team for their contributions during 2022. And we look forward to updating you again in the near future. So with that, Kyle, you may now disconnect.

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.