Helen of Troy Ltd (HELE) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to the Helen of Troy Limited Second Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call.

    您好,歡迎來到 Helen of Troy Limited 2023 財年第二季度收益電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    (操作員說明)提醒一下,正在錄製此會議。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Jack Jancin, Senior Vice President, Corporate Business Development for Helen of Troy. Please go ahead, sir.

    我現在想將會議轉交給您的主持人 Jack Jancin,Helen of Troy 的企業業務發展高級副總裁。請繼續,先生。

  • Jack Jancin - SVP of Corporate Business Development

    Jack Jancin - SVP of Corporate Business Development

  • Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Helen of Troy's Second Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. On the call today with me are Julien Mininberg, our CEO; Matt Osberg, our CFO; and our COO, Noel Geoffroy.

    謝謝你,運營商。各位早上好,歡迎來到特洛伊的海倫 (Helen of Troy) 的 2023 財年第二季度收益電話會議。今天和我一起打電話的是我們的首席執行官 Julien Mininberg;我們的首席財務官 Matt Osberg;以及我們的首席運營官 Noel Geoffroy。

  • The agenda for the call this morning is as follows: I'll begin with a brief discussion of forward-looking statements. Mr. Julien Mininberg, the company's CEO, will comment on the financial performance of the quarter and current trends. Then Mr. Matt Osberg, the company's CFO, will review the financials in more detail and provide an update on our financial outlook for fiscal 2023. Following this, we will take questions you have for us today.

    今天上午的電話會議議程如下:首先我將簡要討論前瞻性陳述。公司首席執行官 Julien Mininberg 先生將對本季度的財務業績和當前趨勢發表評論。然後,公司首席財務官 Matt Osberg 先生將更詳細地審查財務狀況,並提供我們 2023 財年財務展望的最新信息。在此之後,我們將回答您今天提出的問題。

  • This conference call may contain certain forward-looking statements that are based on management's current expectation with respect to future events or financial performance. Generally, the words anticipates, believes, expects and other words similar are words identifying forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause anticipated results to differ materially from the actual results.

    本次電話會議可能包含某些基於管理層當前對未來事件或財務業績的預期的前瞻性陳述。通常,預期、相信、期望和其他類似的詞是識別前瞻性陳述的詞。前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響,這些風險和不確定性可能導致預期結果與實際結果存在重大差異。

  • This conference call may also include information that may be considered non-GAAP financial information. These non-GAAP measures are not an alternative to GAAP financial information and may be calculated differently than the non-GAAP financial information disclosed by other parties. The company cautions listeners not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements or non-GAAP financial information.

    此電話會議還可能包含可能被視為非 GAAP 財務信息的信息。這些非 GAAP 措施不能替代 GAAP 財務信息,並且計算方法可能與其他方披露的非 GAAP 財務信息不同。公司提醒聽眾不要過分依賴前瞻性陳述或非 GAAP 財務信息。

  • Before I turn the call over to Mr. Mininberg, I would like to inform all interested parties that a copy of today's earnings release has been posted to the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.helenoftroy.com. The earnings release contains tables that reconcile non-GAAP financial measures to their corresponding GAAP-based measures. The release can be obtained by selecting the Investor Relations tab on the company's home page and then the Press Releases tab.

    在我將電話轉給 Mininberg 先生之前,我想通知所有感興趣的各方,今天的收益發布副本已發佈到公司網站 www.helenoftroy.com 的投資者關係部分。收益發布包含將非 GAAP 財務指標與其相應的基於 GAAP 的指標相協調的表格。可以通過選擇公司主頁上的“投資者關係”選項卡,然後選擇“新聞稿”選項卡來獲取新聞稿。

  • I will now turn the conference call over to Mr. Mininberg.

    我現在將電話會議轉交給 Mininberg 先生。

  • Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

    Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Jack. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

    謝謝你,傑克。大家早上好,感謝您今天加入我們。

  • Today, I would like to talk about our second quarter results, the changes we see in trends since our July call, the various factors leading to our revised outlook for this fiscal year and provide an update on our progress on the initiatives we announced in July. As a reminder, those initiatives were to normalize our elevated inventory levels, launch a new corporate program to further improve our productivity and lower our costs, and move faster on several strategic changes and efficiency projects that we've identified in our Health & Wellness segment.

    今天,我想談談我們第二季度的業績、自 7 月電話會議以來我們看到的趨勢變化、導致我們修訂本財年展望的各種因素,並提供我們在 7 月宣布的舉措方面的最新進展.提醒一下,這些舉措是為了使我們升高的庫存水平正常化,啟動新的企業計劃以進一步提高我們的生產力並降低我們的成本,並更快地推進我們在健康與保健部門確定的幾個戰略變革和效率項目.

  • Let me start with that update. Over the summer, we built these initiatives into an overall restructuring project we are calling Pegasus. The basic idea of Pegasus is to significantly accelerate and amplify our transformation to provide a stronger platform for operating margin expansion, reduced inventory, raise return on invested capital and improve cash flow. Pegasus is a multiyear initiative with a 3-year arc designed not only to improve profitability, but also help us more efficiently leverage our investment flywheel.

    讓我從那個更新開始。整個夏天,我們將這些舉措納入了我們稱之為 Pegasus 的整體重組項目。 Pegasus 的基本理念是顯著加速和擴大我們的轉型,為擴大營業利潤率、減少庫存、提高投資資本回報率和改善現金流提供更強大的平台。 Pegasus 是一項為期 3 年的多年計劃,旨在不僅提高盈利能力,而且幫助我們更有效地利用我們的投資飛輪。

  • As Pegasus generates savings, we plan to invest a portion of those savings back into the business under our new and leaner cost structure. The timing and extent of the reinvestment will depend on the future macro conditions and on the opportunities that provide the most attractive return on investment. We believe this will also help generate more profitable growth once consumers' patterns of consumption normalize and once retailer replenishment better aligns with sell-through.

    隨著 Pegasus 產生儲蓄,我們計劃在我們新的更精簡的成本結構下將這些儲蓄的一部分重新投資到業務中。再投資的時間和範圍將取決於未來的宏觀條件和提供最具吸引力的投資回報的機會。我們相信,一旦消費者的消費模式正常化並且一旦零售商補貨與銷售率更好地保持一致,這也將有助於產生更多的利潤增長。

  • We came into the current environment with considerable momentum, an outstanding portfolio of leadership brands, outstanding people and a powerful positive culture. Like many other companies, we are addressing the difficult short-term macro deterioration. And in our case, we are simultaneously and purposefully focusing on Pegasus to significantly improve what is within our control.

    我們以強勁的勢頭、傑出的領導品牌組合、傑出的人才和強大的積極文化進入了當前的環境。與許多其他公司一樣,我們正在應對困難的短期宏觀經濟惡化。在我們的案例中,我們同時有目的地專注於 Pegasus,以顯著改善我們控制範圍內的內容。

  • The Pegasus theory team is being led by our COO, Noel Geoffroy, with the support of a premium global consulting firm as well as a dedicated internal core team. Strategically, Pegasus is intended to return Helen of Troy to the top quartile of our peer group on measures such as revenue and earnings per share growth, cash flow generation and total shareholder return.

    Pegasus 理論團隊由我們的首席運營官 Noel Geoffroy 領導,並得到一家優質全球諮詢公司和專門的內部核心團隊的支持。從戰略上講,Pegasus 旨在讓《特洛伊的海倫》在收入和每股收益增長、現金流產生和股東總回報等指標上重回同行集團的前四分之一。

  • The initiatives in Pegasus include optimizing our brand portfolio, accelerating and amplifying cost of good savings projects, enhancing the efficiency of our supply chain network, optimizing our indirect spending, streamlining and simplifying the organization and reducing our inventory.

    Pegasus 的舉措包括優化我們的品牌組合、加速和擴大良好節約項目的成本、提高我們供應鍊網絡的效率、優化我們的間接支出、精簡和簡化組織以及減少我們的庫存。

  • Pegasus will also include initiatives to improve margins, growth rates and brand portfolio in Health & Wellness. I'm very confident that the major projects that make up Pegasus are the right ones. Starting with our brand portfolio, we have demonstrated our willingness to exit underperforming businesses such as mass market Personal Care when they are no longer right for our long-term portfolio, profitability and growth targets. Pegasus includes a further look at our businesses through this lens.

    Pegasus 還將包括提高利潤率、增長率和健康與保健品牌組合的舉措。我非常有信心構成 Pegasus 的主要項目是正確的。從我們的品牌組合開始,當大眾市場個人護理等表現不佳的業務不再適合我們的長期投資組合、盈利能力和增長目標時,我們已經表明我們願意退出這些業務。 Pegasus 通過這個鏡頭進一步審視我們的業務。

  • On the acquisition side, we have demonstrated our ability to deploy or redeploy capital on acquisitions that add fast-growing brands and on-trend categories. Recent examples include the ones made so far in Phase II, Osprey, Curlsmith and Drybar that are delivering on our strategy to further diversify our portfolio in outdoor and in prestige beauty.

    在收購方面,我們已經展示了我們部署或重新部署資本以增加快速增長的品牌和流行類別的收購的能力。最近的例子包括目前在二期生產的 Osprey、Curlsmith 和 Drybar,它們正在實施我們的戰略,進一步豐富我們在戶外和高端美容領域的產品組合。

  • The cost of goods savings projects in Pegasus are intended to amplify and accelerate work already underway and identify new opportunities to better leverage our scale and procurement, supplier consolidation and platforming technologies more rapidly and at lower cost. Pegasus' projects in other parts of our supply chain are intended to move faster on streamlining our distribution network and footprint. This will lower cost, free up capital and accelerate our ability to capture the efficiencies of the state-of-the-art automation and IT systems in our new distribution center. Selling down our elevated inventory of certain existing products will also contribute to capturing these efficiencies.

    Pegasus 的商品成本節約項目旨在擴大和加速已經在進行的工作,並發現新的機會,以更快、更低成本地更好地利用我們的規模和採購、供應商整合和平台技術。飛馬在我們供應鏈其他部分的項目旨在更快地精簡我們的分銷網絡和足跡。這將降低成本、釋放資金並加快我們在新配送中心獲取最先進自動化和 IT 系統效率的能力。出售某些現有產品的高庫存也將有助於提高這些效率。

  • The net effect of the supply chain and inventory changes will make a big difference to how quickly we can improve working capital and increase cash flow. The Pegasus initiatives on optimizing indirect spend will help us standardize and simplify in additional spend areas such as marketing, similar to what we have already done in IT and in other areas. The next [round] of optimization will also allow us to reapply best practices more quickly, better leverage purchasing power across business units and further increase our focus on return on investment.

    供應鍊和庫存變化的淨效應將對我們改善營運資金和增加現金流的速度產生重大影響。 Pegasus 優化間接支出的舉措將幫助我們標準化和簡化營銷等額外支出領域,類似於我們在 IT 和其他領域所做的工作。下一輪優化還將使我們能夠更快地重新應用最佳實踐,更好地利用各業務部門的購買力,並進一步提高我們對投資回報的關注。

  • By streamlining our organization, we believe we will be able to create further operating efficiencies through selective centralization that more easily allows us to leverage our scale, prioritize investment decisions across our business, and shift resources to the brands and projects we expect will have the greatest positive impact for our consumers and for our retail customers. Streamlining is also intended to help enhance our speed, collaboration and reapplication of best practices as we get more leverage from further centralizing our shared services and free our businesses to focus on even more consumer-centric innovation and brand building.

    通過精簡我們的組織,我們相信我們將能夠通過有選擇的集中化進一步提高運營效率,這更容易讓我們利用我們的規模,在我們的業務中優先考慮投資決策,並將資源轉移到我們期望最大的品牌和項目對我們的消費者和零售客戶產生積極影響。精簡還旨在幫助提高我們的速度、協作和最佳實踐的重新應用,因為我們通過進一步集中我們的共享服務獲得更多的影響力,並解放我們的業務,以專注於更多以消費者為中心的創新和品牌建設。

  • Turning now to look at the quarter. Despite the current challenges, we are pleased to report revenue growth and adjusted earnings per share in line with the quarterly outlook we provided in July. Stepping back to look at the first half of the fiscal year, we believe it is important to note that even with the various ups and downs from the pandemic over the past 2.5 years and the EPA matter, sales of our portfolio of organic and acquired leadership brands grew 40% in the first half of this fiscal year compared to the fiscal 2020 pre-pandemic year.

    現在轉向看這個季度。儘管當前面臨挑戰,但我們很高興地報告收入增長和調整後的每股收益與我們在 7 月份提供的季度展望一致。回顧本財年的上半年,我們認為重要的是要注意,即使在過去 2.5 年的流行病和 EPA 問題上經歷了各種起伏,我們有機和收購領導力組合的銷售與大流行前的 2020 財年相比,品牌在本財年上半年增長了 40%。

  • As discussed in our April and July earnings calls, we saw a notable change in consumer buying patterns beginning this March and April. This trend continued throughout the second quarter, accelerating in some categories, resulting in a larger overall slowdown in demand than we expected in our Organic business. Consumers further tightened their purchasing patterns in some categories in response to higher-than-expected inflation on basics, such as rent, gasoline and food and the impact of higher-than-expected interest rates rippling through the global economy. As a result of these changes in consumer purchase habits, most retailers slowed their repurchase orders and further adjusted their inventories and weeks on hand to match reduced sell-through.

    正如我們在 4 月和 7 月的財報電話會議中所討論的那樣,從今年 3 月和 4 月開始,我們看到消費者購買模式發生了顯著變化。這一趨勢在整個第二季度持續,在某些類別中加速,導致整體需求放緩幅度超過我們對有機業務的預期。消費者進一步收緊了某些類別的購買模式,以應對房租、汽油和食品等基本商品的通脹高於預期,以及高於預期的利率波及全球經濟的影響。由於消費者購買習慣的這些變化,大多數零售商放慢了回購訂單的速度,並進一步調整了庫存和庫存週數,以適應減少的銷售量。

  • Within our diversified portfolio, we can see consumers generally trading down or delaying purchases in some discretionary categories, such as Beauty appliances and home-related categories. With our portfolio intentionally built to focus on the better and best segment, changing consumer purchase habits that have an outsized negative impact on our revenues and market share in those categories.

    在我們多元化的產品組合中,我們可以看到消費者通常會降低或延遲購買某些可自由支配的類別,例如美容電器和家居相關類別。我們的產品組合有意建立以專注於更好和最好的細分市場,改變消費者的購買習慣對我們在這些類別中的收入和市場份額產生了巨大的負面影響。

  • In some cases, our brands are a beneficiary of trade down, such as in thermometers, where sales of Vicks thermometers were strong in the second quarter, and we grew market share significantly as consumers sought quality products from trusted brands, those lineups include lower-priced alternatives.

    在某些情況下,我們的品牌是降價交易的受益者,例如溫度計,第二季度 Vicks 溫度計的銷售強勁,隨著消費者尋求可信賴品牌的優質產品,我們的市場份額顯著增加,這些產品系列包括較低的 -定價的替代品。

  • Other discretionary categories such as outdoors and prestige beauty liquids are more on trend and performing much better. As examples, demand for Osprey's everyday travel [packs] was strong as was demand for Drybar and Curlsmith liquids. As always, healthcare essentials, such as thermometers and humidifiers, trend with healthcare needs, and our health brands have the outstanding products, a range of price points and the trusted names consumers rely on to care for their families.

    其他可選類別,如戶外用品和高級美容液,更受歡迎,表現也更好。例如,對 Osprey 日常旅行 [包裝] 的需求與對 Drybar 和 Curlsmith 液體的需求一樣強勁。與往常一樣,溫度計和加濕器等醫療必需品隨著醫療保健需求的發展而發展,我們的健康品牌擁有出色的產品、一系列的價位和值得信賴的品牌,消費者依靠它們來照顧家人。

  • Looking at our business segment. Sales growth in the quarter was led by Health & Wellness, which increased 27.6%. We achieved significant sales growth in water purifiers, air purifiers and humidifiers due to the EPA-related stock shipment actions in the prior year. [Purell] benefited from an uptick in category growth during the summer and back-to-school periods, and we have largely restored [Purell's] shelf placement in brick-and-mortar and online. In humidification, Vicks grew share in both devices and consumables as we were able to put more product on shelves and meet incremental demand as consumers experience the summer surge of Omicron and its variants.

    看看我們的業務部門。本季度的銷售額增長由健康與保健引領,增長了 27.6%。由於前一年與 EPA 相關的庫存出貨行動,我們在淨水器、空氣淨化器和加濕器方面實現了顯著的銷售增長。 [Purell] 受益於夏季和返校期間類別增長的上升,我們已經在很大程度上恢復了 [Purell] 在實體店和網上的貨架佈置。在加濕方面,隨著消費者體驗 Omicron 及其變體的夏季熱潮,我們能夠將更多產品上架並滿足增量需求,因此 Vicks 在設備和消耗品中的份額均有所增長。

  • While we continue to see the U.S. thermometer category decline off the historic high base set in the peak of the pandemic, our Vicks digital thermometers achieved strong revenue and share growth over the last 13-week period, as mentioned. With our Braun and Vicks thermometers both serving different consumer segments and both delivering healthy operating margins, the diversification of our product lineup between the 2 brands is a winning mix.

    儘管我們繼續看到美國溫度計類別從大流行高峰期設定的歷史高基數下降,但如前所述,我們的 Vicks 數字溫度計在過去 13 週內實現了強勁的收入和份額增長。我們的 Braun 和 Vicks 溫度計都服務於不同的消費者群體,並且都提供了可觀的運營利潤率,我們在這兩個品牌之間的產品陣容多樣化是一個成功的組合。

  • Turning to Home & Outdoor. Total sales increased 11.8%, which included the acquisition of Osprey. Sell-through for Hydro Flask grew modestly in the quarter with strength in collegiate during the back-to-school period and strength in grocery. While the brand lost market share overall in the United States, online sales were strong, and we grew share at our largest online retailer. Internationally, Hydro Flask increased sales in Asia and Canada fueled by improved consumer demand. Looking ahead, we are focused on improving our DTC presence as we launch our new DTC platform this fiscal year.

    轉向家庭和戶外。總銷售額增長 11.8%,其中包括對 Osprey 的收購。 Hydro Flask 的銷售額在本季度溫和增長,返校期間大學和雜貨店的實力強勁。雖然該品牌在美國的整體市場份額有所下降,但在線銷售強勁,我們在最大的在線零售商中的份額也有所增長。在國際上,Hydro Flask 在消費者需求改善的推動下增加了在亞洲和加拿大的銷售額。展望未來,隨著我們在本財年推出新的 DTC 平台,我們將專注於改善我們的 DTC 業務。

  • Osprey had a strong quarter, contributing $47.4 million in sales and remains on track to achieve our outlook range of $180 million to $185 million for the full fiscal year. As expected, OXO continued to face sell-through decline similar to what we saw in the first quarter. The overall categories it competes in are generally declining from COVID level peaks as consumers shifted some of their spending away from home related goods and adjusted their budgets to address inflation. Nonetheless, total sell-through for OXO remains solidly ahead of pre-pandemic levels.

    Osprey 有一個強勁的季度,貢獻了 4740 萬美元的銷售額,並且有望在整個財政年度實現我們 1.8 億美元至 1.85 億美元的前景範圍。正如預期的那樣,OXO 繼續面臨與我們在第一季度看到的相似的銷售下滑。隨著消費者將部分支出從與家居相關的商品上轉移開,並調整預算以應對通貨膨脹,它所參與競爭的總體品類普遍從 COVID 水平的峰值下降。儘管如此,OXO 的總銷量仍然遠遠高於大流行前的水平。

  • While we rarely mention specific retailer situations, given the developments of Bed Bath & Beyond during the quarter, we want to update you. Over the past few years, we have decreased our concentration of business with Bed Bath & Beyond and are continuing to manage our credit exposure. That said, we are highly encouraged by their public statement emphasizing the refocus on leading power brands like OXO that have been so important to driving traffic and sales. We are highly supportive of their strategic return to what we believe contributed to the previous success of this iconic retailer. Regarding OXO, we are working closely with them at the highest level.

    雖然我們很少提及具體的零售商情況,但鑑於本季度 Bed Bath & Beyond 的發展情況,我們希望向您通報最新情況。在過去幾年中,我們降低了與 Bed Bath & Beyond 的業務集中度,並繼續管理我們的信用風險。也就是說,我們對他們的公開聲明感到非常鼓舞,他們強調重新關注像 OXO 這樣對推動流量和銷售非常重要的領先品牌。我們高度支持他們的戰略回歸,我們認為這對這家標誌性零售商之前的成功做出了貢獻。關於 OXO,我們正在最高級別與他們密切合作。

  • Turning to Beauty. Core segment sales declined by 11% in the second quarter, primarily driven by continued softening in the hair appliance category off the high base of fiscal 2022. The overall hair appliance category has experienced a decline. We have lost some share in U.S. mass merchandisers as consumers traded down in that channel, partially offset by growth in our largest online retail partner.

    轉向美容。核心部門銷售額在第二季度下降了 11%,這主要是由於美髮用品類別在 2022 財年的高基數上持續走軟。整體美髮用品類別出現了下滑。由於消費者在該渠道中的交易量減少,我們在美國大型零售商中失去了一些份額,部分被我們最大的在線零售合作夥伴的增長所抵消。

  • On the prestige liquid side of Beauty, Drybar continued to perform well, growing over the period -- in the prior year as we improved our supply to meet demand. Curlsmith performed in line with our expectations for the quarter and remains on track to deliver its full year forecast.

    在 Beauty 的聲望液體方面,Drybar 繼續表現良好,在此期間增長——在前一年,我們改善了供應以滿足需求。 Curlsmith 的表現符合我們對本季度的預期,並有望實現全年預測。

  • For Beauty, stepping back to look at Phase II to date, our focus on consumer-centric innovation, accretive acquisition in the prestige segment and building a much more capable organization, that leverages our global shared service platform has resulted in improved sales, profitability and market share during the transformation. While the current environment is highly challenging, we are working on new distribution and new products that we expect to serve as building blocks for the future.

    對於 Beauty,回頭看看迄今為止的第二階段,我們專注於以消費者為中心的創新、在聲望領域的增值收購和建立一個更有能力的組織,利用我們的全球共享服務平台,提高了銷售、盈利能力和轉型期間的市場份額。儘管當前環境極具挑戰性,但我們正在致力於新的分銷和新產品,我們希望它們能成為未來的基石。

  • Looking at our international business. Total net sales increased 27.4% over the second quarter of last year, with particular strength in EMEA, Canada and Asia. Growth primarily reflects the incremental sales from the acquisitions of Osprey and Curlsmith.

    看看我們的國際業務。總淨銷售額比去年第二季度增長 27.4%,歐洲、中東和非洲、加拿大和亞洲的增長尤其強勁。增長主要反映了收購 Osprey 和 Curlsmith 帶來的增量銷售。

  • The macroeconomic challenges outside of the United States are comparable to what we all see domestically, exacerbated by the further impacts of the strong dollar and war-related energy and security in Europe. These served to exacerbate and escalate inflation and recession fears causing shifts in consumer shopping preferences and higher price elasticities. We are responding by focusing our efforts on those opportunities that provide the biggest potential. We expect consolidated international sales growth in the second half of the fiscal year, primarily driven by Osprey.

    美國以外的宏觀經濟挑戰與我們在國內看到的不相上下,強勢美元和歐洲與戰爭相關的能源和安全的進一步影響加劇了這一挑戰。這些都加劇和加劇了對通貨膨脹和經濟衰退的擔憂,導致消費者購物偏好發生變化並提高價格彈性。我們的回應是將我們的努力集中在那些提供最大潛力的機會上。我們預計本財年下半年的綜合國際銷售增長主要由 Osprey 推動。

  • I would like to turn now to our revised full fiscal year 2023 outlook. The deterioration of macro trends, the trading down behavior impacting our portfolio and share losses in some of our categories lead us to lower our organic revenue expectation and EPS outlook for the balance of the year. Our revised outlook includes our expectations for pressure on consumer spending and further retailer inventory corrections. With regard to the upcoming cough, cold and flu season, our guidance assumes a return to historical pre-pandemic incidence levels as adults spend more time traveling and in offices as students return to in-person schooling and as COVID restrictions are largely dropped in most parts of the world.

    我現在想談談我們修訂後的 2023 財年完整展望。宏觀趨勢的惡化、影響我們投資組合的交易下跌行為以及我們某些類別的份額損失導致我們降低了今年剩餘時間的有機收入預期和每股收益前景。我們修訂後的前景包括我們對消費者支出壓力和進一步零售商庫存調整的預期。關於即將到來的咳嗽、感冒和流感季節,我們的指南假設發病率會恢復到大流行前的歷史水平,因為成年人會花更多的時間在旅行和辦公室裡,而學生會返回面對面的學校學習,而且大多數國家和地區的 COVID 限制已大大減少世界的一部分。

  • Lastly, our outlook includes the impact of certain supply chain interruptions, particularly in select thermometer models where securing sufficient chip supply has been a challenge. We are being thoughtful about how we balance our short-term profitability goals with our objective to preserve market share, putting ourselves in a better position to return to growth, especially once retailers replenishment patterns normalize to reflect the point-of-sale sell-through.

    最後,我們的展望包括某些供應鏈中斷的影響,特別是在某些溫度計型號中,確保足夠的芯片供應一直是一個挑戰。我們正在考慮如何平衡我們的短期盈利目標與我們保持市場份額的目標,使我們能夠更好地恢復增長,特別是一旦零售商補貨模式正常化以反映銷售點銷售情況.

  • Our brands have a long history of earning trust and winning with consumers. We remain focused on value reframing and on product innovation to ensure consumers continue to recognize the quality, the features and the benefits our brands provide.

    我們的品牌在贏得消費者信任和贏得信任方面有著悠久的歷史。我們仍然專注於價值重構和產品創新,以確保消費者繼續認可我們品牌提供的質量、功能和優勢。

  • Stepping back, I remain highly energized and enthusiastic about our business and the choices we are making to position our company for continued long-term leadership and profitable growth. We see Pegasus as a major catalyst to returning to top quartile financial performance.

    退一步說,我對我們的業務以及我們為使公司保持長期領導地位和盈利增長而做出的選擇仍然充滿活力和熱情。我們將 Pegasus 視為重回前四分之一財務業績的主要催化劑。

  • By streamlining our portfolio, costs, processes and organization, we believe we can create significant value and are focused on doing so. We also expect to produce continued attractive returns from our strategic focus on consumer-centric products and commercial innovation, our disciplined investments in our leadership brands, international expansion and new growth opportunities such as direct-to-consumer.

    通過精簡我們的產品組合、成本、流程和組織,我們相信我們可以創造巨大的價值,並且專注於這樣做。我們還期望通過我們對以消費者為中心的產品和商業創新的戰略重點、我們對領先品牌的嚴格投資、國際擴張和新的增長機會(例如直接面向消費者)產生持續的有吸引力的回報。

  • With that, I would like to hand the call over to our CFO, Matt Osberg.

    有了這個,我想把電話轉給我們的首席財務官馬特奧斯伯格。

  • Matthew J. Osberg - CFO

    Matthew J. Osberg - CFO

  • Thank you, Julien. Good morning, everyone.

    謝謝你,朱利安。大家,早安。

  • I would like to begin with an overview of our second quarter results then follow with a review of our updated fiscal '23 outlook before wrapping up with more information on Project Pegasus.

    我想首先概述我們第二季度的業績,然後回顧我們更新的 23 財年展望,最後再介紹有關 Project Pegasus 的更多信息。

  • Looking at our second quarter, despite the challenging economic environment, we were able to deliver results largely in line with our expectations. Our consolidated net sales increased 9.7% primarily driven by the contributions from the Osprey and Curlsmith acquisition as well as significant organic growth in the Health & Wellness segment, driven by the adverse impact of the EPA matter in the prior year period.

    縱觀我們的第二季度,儘管經濟環境充滿挑戰,但我們的業績基本符合我們的預期。我們的綜合淨銷售額增長了 9.7%,這主要是受 Osprey 和 Curlsmith 收購的貢獻以及健康與保健部門顯著的有機增長的推動,這是由於上一年 EPA 問題的不利影響。

  • Overall, organic sales were a drag on consolidated sales by 1.5 percentage points. This primarily reflects organic declines in the Beauty and Home & Outdoor segments due to lower consumer demand, shifts in consumer spending patterns, inventory adjustments by retailers and $5.7 million in Personal Care sales in the base last year that we subsequently divested.

    總體而言,有機銷售額拖累綜合銷售額 1.5 個百分點。這主要反映了由於消費者需求下降、消費者支出模式轉變、零售商庫存調整以及我們隨後剝離的去年基地 570 萬美元的個人護理銷售額而導緻美容和家居及戶外領域的有機下降。

  • GAAP consolidated operating margin for the quarter was 9% of net sales. On an adjusted basis, operating margins declined 3.2 percentage points to 13.9%, as operating leverage on higher sales and lower annual incentive compensation expense was offset by -- primarily by higher outbound freight costs, increased marketing expenses and less favorable segment mix, higher salary and wage costs, higher distribution expense and the unfavorable comparative impact of gains recognized on the sale of property and the North America Personal Care business in the prior year period.

    本季度 GAAP 綜合營業利潤率為淨銷售額的 9%。在調整後的基礎上,營業利潤率下降 3.2 個百分點至 13.9%,這是因為銷售額增加和年度激勵補償費用減少的經營槓桿被 - 主要被更高的出境貨運成本、增加的營銷費用和不利的細分市場組合、更高的薪水所抵消和工資成本、更高的分銷費用以及去年同期對財產銷售和北美個人護理業務確認的收益的不利比較影響。

  • The higher marketing expense primarily reflects increases due to the acquisitions of Osprey and Curlsmith and an increase in spending in Health & Wellness when we significantly reduced spending in the second quarter of last year due to the EPA matter.

    較高的營銷費用主要反映了由於收購 Osprey 和 Curlsmith 而導致的增加,以及由於 EPA 問題我們在去年第二季度大幅減少支出時健康與保健支出的增加。

  • Adjusted operating margin was down in all segments for the quarter with the most significant decline in Beauty, primarily reflecting unfavorable operating leverage, increased salary and wage costs, higher distribution expense, an increase in marketing expense and the unfavorable comparative impact of gains on sales of assets recognized in the prior year period.

    本季度所有部門的調整後營業利潤率均下降,其中美妝部門的下降幅度最大,主要反映了不利的經營槓桿、工資和工資成本增加、分銷費用增加、營銷費用增加以及收益對銷售額的不利比較影響上一年度確認的資產。

  • In Home & Outdoor, as expected, the acquisition of Osprey was a drag on adjusted operating margin in the quarter. We continue to expect that Osprey operating margins will improve over time and will be above the company's fleet average in fiscal '25 and beyond.

    在家居和戶外領域,正如預期的那樣,對 Osprey 的收購拖累了本季度調整後的營業利潤率。我們繼續預計 Osprey 的營業利潤率將隨著時間的推移而提高,並將在 25 財年及以後高於公司機隊的平均水平。

  • Adjusted operating margin for Health & Wellness declined as favorable operating leverage and lower personnel expense was offset primarily by the unfavorable comparative impact of tariff exclusion refunds received in the prior year period, increased outbound freight costs, higher distribution expense, higher inventory obsolescence expense and higher marketing expense. We expect our initiatives under Project Pegasus will help improve both short and long-term profitability of the Health & Wellness segment.

    Health & Wellness 的調整後營業利潤率下降,因為有利的經營槓桿和較低的人員費用主要被上年同期收到的關稅排除退款的不利比較影響、增加的出境貨運成本、更高的分銷費用、更高的庫存報廢費用和更高的費用所抵消營銷費用。我們預計我們在 Project Pegasus 下的舉措將有助於提高健康與保健部門的短期和長期盈利能力。

  • Net income was $30.7 million or $1.28 per diluted share. Non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS decreased 14.3% to $2.27 primarily due to lower adjusted operating income in the Beauty segment and higher interest expense. Inventory was $643 million at the end of the quarter.

    淨收入為 3070 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 1.28 美元。非 GAAP 調整後攤薄每股收益下降 14.3% 至 2.27 美元,這主要是由於美容部門調整後的營業收入下降和利息支出增加。本季度末庫存為 6.43 億美元。

  • We continue to expect total inventory to decline sequentially in the third and fourth quarters of this fiscal year to end fiscal '23 flat compared to the end of fiscal '22, although cash flow this year will be somewhat dependent on our ability to lower our inventory, we continue to expect slightly negative free cash flow for the full fiscal year.

    我們繼續預計本財年第三和第四季度總庫存將連續下降,與 22 財年末相比,23 財年末持平,儘管今年的現金流量將在一定程度上取決於我們降低庫存的能力,我們繼續預計整個財政年度的自由現金流量將略有負數。

  • We ended the quarter with total debt of $1.17 billion, an increase of $64 million from the first quarter of fiscal '23 primarily due to capital expenditures related to our new distribution center and cash used for inventory.

    我們在本季度結束時的總債務為 11.7 億美元,比 23 財年第一季度增加了 6400 萬美元,這主要是由於與我們的新配送中心相關的資本支出和用於庫存的現金。

  • Our net leverage ratio was 3.16x at the end of the second quarter. We continue to expect our leverage ratio to decline sequentially in the third and fourth quarters of this fiscal year to end fiscal '23 with the leverage ratio in the range of 2.75 to 3.0x.

    第二季度末,我們的淨槓桿率為 3.16 倍。我們繼續預計我們的槓桿率將在本財年的第三和第四季度依次下降,以在 2.75 至 3.0 倍的範圍內結束 23 財年。

  • Now turning to our revised outlook for the fiscal year. The current external operating environment has become even more challenging. As outlined in our earnings release, we have revised our full year outlook for fiscal '23 downwards for both sales and adjusted diluted EPS. Our revised sales outlook was primarily driven by expected further category decline and share loss in the Beauty appliance and inflated water bottle categories due to trends in consumers adjusting their spending patterns in response to inflation and retailers further adjusting their inventories to better align with lower sell-through forecast.

    現在轉向我們修訂後的財政年度展望。當前的外部經營環境變得更具挑戰性。正如我們在財報中所概述的那樣,我們已經下調了 23 財年的全年銷售額和調整後攤薄每股收益展望。我們修訂後的銷售前景主要是由於消費者為應對通貨膨脹而調整消費模式以及零售商進一步調整庫存以更好地適應較低的銷售趨勢,導緻美容電器和充氣水瓶類別的預期進一步下降和份額損失。通過預測。

  • Our sales outlook was also unfavorably impacted by ongoing supply chain disruptions for certain thermometers within our Health & Wellness segment and the unfavorable impact of foreign exchange rates.

    我們的銷售前景也受到健康與保健部門某些溫度計持續供應鏈中斷以及外匯匯率不利影響的不利影響。

  • In regard to our exposure to changes in foreign exchange rates, approximately 12% of our net sales revenue was denominated in foreign currencies during the 6-month period ended August 31, 2022. In that period, our sales have been unfavorably impacted by foreign currency fluctuations versus the prior year by $7.7 million or 0.8%. We have updated our revised outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year with the assumption that September 2022 foreign currency exchange rates will remain constant for the remainder of the fiscal year. In addition, we continue to use cash flow hedges to mitigate a portion of our exposure to changes in foreign currency.

    關於我們面臨的匯率變動風險,在截至 2022 年 8 月 31 日的 6 個月期間,我們約 12% 的淨銷售收入以外幣計價。在此期間,我們的銷售受到外幣的不利影響與上一年相比波動了 770 萬美元或 0.8%。我們假設 2022 年 9 月的外幣匯率在本財年剩餘時間內保持不變,並更新了本財年剩餘時間的修訂後展望。此外,我們繼續使用現金流量對沖來減輕我們的一部分外幣變動風險。

  • Our adjusted diluted EPS outlook is primarily being impacted by our expectation of lower sales volume, partially offset by lower annual incentive compensation expense and other cost reduction measures. For fiscal '23, we now expect consolidated net sales revenue in the range of $2.0 billion to $2.05 billion, which implied a consolidated decline of 10% to 7.8%, and a core decline of 8.6% to 6.4%. We are pleased that our previous sales expectations for both Osprey and Curlsmith continue to remain intact in our revised outlook.

    我們調整後的攤薄每股收益前景主要受到我們預期銷量下降的影響,部分被較低的年度激勵補償費用和其他成本削減措施所抵消。對於 23 財年,我們現在預計綜合淨銷售收入在 20 億美元至 20.5 億美元之間,這意味著綜合下降 10% 至 7.8%,核心下降 8.6% 至 6.4%。我們很高興我們之前對 Osprey 和 Curlsmith 的銷售預期在我們修訂後的展望中繼續保持不變。

  • By segment, we now have the following net sales expectations. Women outdoor growth of 3.5% to 5.5% including net sales from Osprey of $180 million to $185 million. A Health & Wellness decline of 13% to 11% and a Beauty core business decline of 21% to 19%, including net sales from Curlsmith of $30 million to $35 million for the 10-month period of ownership in fiscal '23.

    按細分市場,我們現在有以下淨銷售額預期。戶外女性增長 3.5% 至 5.5%,其中 Osprey 的淨銷售額為 1.8 億美元至 1.85 億美元。 Health & Wellness 下降 13% 至 11%,Beauty 核心業務下降 21% 至 19%,其中 Curlsmith 在 23 財年的 10 個月所有權期間的淨銷售額為 3000 萬至 3500 萬美元。

  • We now expect consolidated GAAP diluted EPS of $4.26 to $4.93 and consolidated non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $9 to $9.40, which implies a consolidated decline of 27.2% to 23.9% and a core decline of 26.1% to 22.8%. This includes an adjusted diluted EPS contribution from Osprey of approximately $0.35 to $0.40 and a pro rata fiscal '23 contribution from Curlsmith of approximately $0.15 to $0.20.

    我們現在預計綜合 GAAP 攤薄每股收益為 4.26 美元至 4.93 美元,合併非 GAAP 調整後攤薄每股收益在 9 美元至 9.40 美元之間,這意味著綜合下降 27.2% 至 23.9%,核心下降 26.1% 至 22.8%。這包括 Osprey 調整後的攤薄每股收益約為 0.35 美元至 0.40 美元,以及 Curlsmith 按比例分配的 23 財年貢獻約為 0.15 美元至 0.20 美元。

  • The decline in EPS contribution for Osprey versus our previous outlook primarily reflects the impact of higher interest expense due to our updated assumption of 450 basis points of interest rate increases in calendar year '22. Although we expect to slightly expand gross margins in fiscal '23, we estimate our consolidated adjusted operating margin will decline approximately 100 basis points with roughly the same year-over-year decline in each of our segments.

    Osprey 的 EPS 貢獻與我們之前的展望相比有所下降,這主要反映了由於我們更新了 22 日曆年加息 450 個基點的假設而導致的利息支出增加的影響。儘管我們預計 23 財年的毛利率將略有擴大,但我們估計我們的綜合調整後營業利潤率將下降約 100 個基點,我們每個部門的同比降幅大致相同。

  • The consolidated decline is expected to be driven primarily by a decrease in operating leverage, the net dilutive effect of inflationary price increases, the dilutive impact of the Osprey acquisition in the Home & Outdoor segment, higher distribution expenses, increased salary and wage costs and an unfavorable product mix within the Health & Wellness segment.

    綜合下降預計主要是由於經營槓桿下降、通貨膨脹價格上漲的淨攤薄效應、家庭和戶外部門收購 Osprey 的攤薄影響、更高的分銷費用、增加的工資和工資成本以及健康與保健領域不利的產品組合。

  • Our outlook for the estimated after-tax impact of an incremental inflationary costs declined slightly to approximately $55 million to $60 million or approximately $2.25 to $2.50 of adjusted diluted EPS. We continue to believe we can mitigate the majority of these costs by executing our playbook which includes utilizing our contracted shipping rates, actions to implement productivity and COGS savings initiatives with our suppliers as well as the price increases that are already in place. As an example, even as market variables such as container spot rates have declined versus peak levels earlier this year, we continue to purchase our sea freight below current spot rates due to favorable pre-negotiated contracts.

    我們對增量通貨膨脹成本的估計稅後影響的前景略有下降至約 5500 萬至 6000 萬美元或調整後攤薄每股收益約 2.25 至 2.50 美元。我們仍然相信,我們可以通過執行我們的劇本來減輕這些成本中的大部分,其中包括利用我們的合同運費、與我們的供應商一起實施生產力和 COGS 節約計劃的行動以及已經到位的價格上漲。例如,即使集裝箱即期運價等市場變量與今年早些時候的峰值水平相比有所下降,但由於預先協商的有利合同,我們繼續以低於當前即期運價的價格購買海運費。

  • Our outlook for interest expense is unchanged at $45 million to $47 million. While we now expect the Fed to increase interest rates by 450 basis points in calendar year '22, ahead of our prior expectations, this is offset by the favorable impact of capitalizing interest costs related to the construction of our new distribution center.

    我們對利息支出的預期保持在 4500 萬至 4700 萬美元不變。雖然我們現在預計美聯儲將在 22 日曆年將利率提高 450 個基點,超出我們之前的預期,但這被與我們新配送中心建設相關的利息成本資本化的有利影響所抵消。

  • Due to the current highly dynamic market conditions and unique factors affecting the comparability of our prior -- to our prior year base, we are providing additional quarterly context for our current expectations of the net sales revenue and adjusted diluted EPS outlook. With regard to the quarterly cadence of the consolidated net sales outlook for the fiscal year, we now expect a mid-teen percent sales decline in the third quarter and a high-teen percent sales decline in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, the fourth quarter of last year included sales from certain retailers securing additional supply ahead of expected price increases, the favorable sales impact of health-related products from the initial Omicron wave and approximately 2 months of sales from the Osprey acquisition.

    由於當前高度動態的市場條件和影響我們之前的可比性的獨特因素 - 與我們上一年的基數相比,我們正在為我們當前對淨銷售收入的預期和調整後的攤薄每股收益前景提供額外的季度背景。關於本財年綜合淨銷售額展望的季度節奏,我們現在預計第三季度銷售額將下降 15%,第四季度銷售額將下降 15%。提醒一下,去年第四季度的銷售額包括某些零售商在預期價格上漲之前獲得額外供應的銷售額、最初的 Omicron 浪潮對健康相關產品的有利銷售影響以及收購 Osprey 後約 2 個月的銷售額。

  • With regard to the quarterly cadence of the consolidated adjusted diluted EPS outlook for the year, we now expect a high 20% decline in the third quarter and a low 20% decline in the fourth quarter. Both quarterly declines are primarily due to lower sales volumes, higher interest expense and a higher adjusted effective tax rate.

    關於今年綜合調整後攤薄每股收益展望的季度節奏,我們現在預計第三季度將下降 20%,第四季度將下降 20%。兩個季度的下降主要是由於銷量下降、利息支出增加和調整後的有效稅率上升。

  • As Julien mentioned in his remarks, during the quarter, we focused on developing Project Pegasus, which is our global restructuring plan intended to expand operating margins through initiatives designed to improve efficiency and reduce costs. Pegasus aims to further optimize our brand portfolio, streamline and simplify the organization, accelerate cost of goods savings projects, enhance the efficiency of our supply chain network, optimize our indirect spending and improve our cash flow and working capital as well as other activities.

    正如 Julien 在他的發言中提到的那樣,在本季度,我們專注於開發 Project Pegasus,這是我們的全球重組計劃,旨在通過旨在提高效率和降低成本的舉措來擴大營業利潤率。 Pegasus 旨在進一步優化我們的品牌組合,精簡和簡化組織,加快商品成本節約項目,提高我們供應鍊網絡的效率,優化我們的間接支出並改善我們的現金流和營運資金以及其他活動。

  • We have the following expectations for Pegasus. Annualized pretax operating profit improvements of approximately $75 million to $85 million, which we expect to begin in fiscal '24 and be substantially achieved by the end of fiscal '26. The estimated cadence of the recognition of the savings will be approximately 25% in fiscal '24, approximately 50% in fiscal '25 and approximately 25% in fiscal '26. Total profit improvements to be realized approximately 60% through reduced cost of goods sold and 40% through lower SG&A.

    我們對 Pegasus 有以下期望。年度稅前營業利潤提高約 7500 萬美元至 8500 萬美元,我們預計這將在 24 財年開始,並在 26 財年末基本實現。確認節餘的估計節奏在 24 財年約為 25%,在 25 財年約為 50%,在 26 財年約為 25%。通過降低銷售成本實現總利潤改善約 60%,通過降低 SG&A 實現總利潤改善約 40%。

  • Total onetime pretax restructuring charges of approximately $85 million to $95 million over the duration of the plan, which will primarily be comprised of severance and other and employee-related costs, professional fees, contract termination costs and other exit and disposal costs. All operating segments and shared services will be impacted by the plan.

    在計劃期間,一次性稅前重組費用總額約為 8500 萬至 9500 萬美元,主要包括遣散費和其他與員工相關的費用、專業費用、合同終止費用以及其他退出和處置費用。所有運營部門和共享服務都將受到該計劃的影響。

  • We believe these initiatives will create operating efficiencies, expand our margins and provide a platform to fund future growth investments. In addition, as part of Project Pegasus, we have begun implementing plans to reduce inventory levels, increase inventory turns and improve cash flow and working capital.

    我們相信這些舉措將提高運營效率,擴大我們的利潤並提供一個平台來為未來的增長投資提供資金。此外,作為 Pegasus 項目的一部分,我們已經開始實施降低庫存水平、增加庫存周轉率以及改善現金流和營運資金的計劃。

  • Looking ahead, we are working hard to return to growth in fiscal '24. Although it is difficult to predict the current -- the macroeconomic business environment and consumer purchasing behaviors we will encounter, I believe that these initiatives identified under Project Pegasus will help us offset some of the anticipated cost headwinds we expect to face in fiscal '24 as we annualize higher interest rates, incremental depreciation for our new distribution center and plan for higher annual incentive compensation expense. As we move into fiscal '25 and '26, Pegasus savings will provide additional opportunities for us to invest in our business as we continue to work to create long-term shareholder value.

    展望未來,我們正在努力在 24 財年恢復增長。儘管很難預測當前——我們將遇到的宏觀經濟商業環境和消費者購買行為,但我相信 Pegasus 項目下確定的這些舉措將幫助我們抵消我們預計在 24 財年將面臨的一些預期成本逆風,因為我們將更高的利率、新配送中心的增量折舊年化併計劃更高的年度激勵補償費用。隨著我們進入 25 和 26 財年,Pegasus 的儲蓄將為我們提供更多投資業務的機會,因為我們將繼續努力創造長期股東價值。

  • In conclusion, I am proud of how our teams are navigating a rapidly changing environment by focusing on serving our customers and consumers, while actively identifying and acting on opportunities to reduce costs and increase efficiency. We will continue to balance the short-term top line and earnings pressure against investing in our most important transformation initiatives that beat our flywheel and drive long-term shareholder value.

    總之,我為我們的團隊如何通過專注於為我們的客戶和消費者提供服務,同時積極發現機會並採取行動以降低成本和提高效率來駕馭瞬息萬變的環境而感到自豪。我們將繼續在短期收入和盈利壓力與投資於我們最重要的轉型計劃之間取得平衡,這些舉措超越了我們的飛輪並推動了長期股東價值。

  • And with that, I would like to turn it back to the operator for questions.

    有了這個,我想把它轉回給接線員提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Bob Labick with CJS Securities.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 CJS 證券公司的 Bob Labick。

  • Robert James Labick - President of Research & Managing Partner

    Robert James Labick - President of Research & Managing Partner

  • I wanted to start -- I know this may be a little difficult to assess. But can you give us a sense of -- since the April guide, how much of the change has been underlying demand versus the inventory corrections that we've seen as well. And then I guess your best assessment as to when retail order patterns may normalize or how you'll know when they've normalized.

    我想開始——我知道這可能有點難以評估。但是你能不能給我們一個感覺——自 4 月份的指南以來,有多少變化是潛在需求與我們所看到的庫存修正相比。然後我猜你對零售訂單模式何時可能正常化或你如何知道它們何時正常化的最佳評估。

  • Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

    Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

  • Yes, it's a great question. We work on this as well. It's very tough to separate these 2. Both are material, and it's hard to tell just because it's a chicken and egg. The inventory corrections come based on the consumption. And if the consumption is less than the retailer expected, which has been the case in some of our categories, then -- they then lower their inventory -- their repurchase rate and adjust their inventory. So the chicken and egg part.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題。我們也致力於此。很難把這2個分開。兩者都是物質,很難分清,因為這是先有雞還是先有蛋。庫存修正基於消耗。如果消費量低於零售商的預期(我們的某些類別就是這種情況),那麼——他們會降低庫存——他們的回購率並調整庫存。所以雞和蛋的部分。

  • I think the easiest way to think about it is, in the end, it's all consumption-driven because the retailer's current order estimates are based on their sell-through rates. So as we call the sell-through rates down a bit lower, there'll be a bit more trade inventory that has to get worked through.

    我認為最簡單的思考方式是,歸根結底,這一切都是消費驅動的,因為零售商當前的訂單估算是基於他們的銷售率。因此,當我們將銷售率降低一點時,就會有更多的貿易庫存需要處理。

  • From our standpoint, it backs up into our inventory and then we work through ours. So there's a backup in that regard. In the case of the when, it's hard to note just because there's a lot of pressure on the financial health of consumers these days. So the normalization, I think, is more about normalization of buying pattern as opposed to normalization of buying volume. And it's my belief, but this is not a well-vetted fact that the consumer has very basic needs in the categories where we provide outstanding products.

    從我們的角度來看,它備份到我們的庫存中,然後我們通過我們的工作。所以在這方面有備份。至於什麼時候,很難僅僅因為這些天消費者的財務健康面臨很大壓力。所以我認為,正常化更多的是關於購買模式的正常化,而不是購買量的正常化。這是我的信念,但這並不是一個經過充分審查的事實,即消費者在我們提供出色產品的類別中有非常基本的需求。

  • So whether it's the basics of beauty, beauty never goes out of style, consumers always want to look good. I've never met a woman that doesn't. And the outcome is the needs are there, just fundamentally there. So as consumers delay their purchases or even trade down, it doesn't mean they don't need. It just means they don't need it now or don't want this high price in item now. So soon enough, I guess, is the answer there.

    所以不管是美妝的基礎款,美妝永遠不會過時,消費者總是想要好看。我從來沒有遇到過一個不這樣做的女人。結果是需求就在那裡,只是從根本上就在那裡。因此,當消費者推遲購買甚至降價購買時,並不意味著他們不需要。這只是意味著他們現在不需要它或者現在不想要這麼高的價格。我想很快就會有答案。

  • In the case of healthcare, it really floats with incidents. So this is more about the need based on how the sickness or perceived threat of sickness is and that makes people buy in healthcare. Again, we have the best products, it's well known from our market shares. You just saw the trade down helped us actually on Vicks thermometers, (inaudible) was quite a lot, in fact, last quarter on market share as an example. And in the case of the housewares versus the outdoors, the outdoors are on trend. So we don't see a need to normalize there. It's just doing well. And it's not like it's going to head down. It just didn't go up so much or down so much, it's just normal.

    就醫療保健而言,它確實隨事件而起。因此,這更多的是基於疾病或疾病威脅的程度以及人們購買醫療保健的需求。同樣,我們擁有最好的產品,這是眾所周知的市場份額。你剛剛看到貿易下降實際上幫助了我們在 Vicks 溫度計上,(聽不清)實際上,以上個季度的市場份額為例。在家居用品與戶外用品的對比中,戶外用品正處於流行趨勢。所以我們認為沒有必要在那裡進行規範化。它只是做得很好。而且它不會低頭。只是沒有漲那麼多,也沒有跌那麼多,這很正常。

  • And in the case of the houseware side, the same thing consumers have the fundamental need. A lot of that will depend how the holiday season goes in retail, a little bit for housewares, a little bit from Hydro Flask, which does have a gifting tendency and to some extent for the Beauty appliances that also have a gifting tendency. So that's where the normalization will come from. In terms of how quickly, I think it just depends on that consumer financial health and the sell-through rate of retailers as they work through their inventory.

    就家庭用品而言,消費者也有同樣的基本需求。這在很大程度上取決於假日季的零售情況,一點是家庭用品,一點是 Hydro Flask,它確實有送禮的趨勢,在某種程度上也有送禮趨勢的美容電器。這就是規範化的來源。就多快而言,我認為這僅取決於消費者的財務狀況和零售商處理庫存時的銷售率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Rupesh Parikh 與 Oppenheimer 的對話。

  • Rupesh Dhinoj Parikh - MD & Senior Analyst

    Rupesh Dhinoj Parikh - MD & Senior Analyst

  • So just going to the back half guide on the top line. I was curious if you could just walk through the key puts and takes there, how you're thinking about consumption, the inventory headwinds? And then I have one follow-up question after that.

    因此,只需轉到頂行的後半部分指南。我很好奇你是否可以通過關鍵的投入和投入,你如何看待消費,庫存逆風?然後我有一個後續問題。

  • Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

    Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

  • Yes, Similar -- similar to Bob's question, it's going to depend on the same factors. What we've done here, and I think the listeners in the market in general should simply know that we've called down [our] expectations for consumption in the back half. And frankly, we were surprised the degree to which consumers slowed down in some of these particular categories. Just take Beauty, for example, you hear a mixed message from the big retailers. They'll tell you Beauty does well. But as you parse it out and ask which part of Beauty does well, you'll find out that the liquids do well.

    是的,相似——與 Bob 的問題相似,它取決於相同的因素。我們在這裡所做的,我認為市場上的一般聽眾應該知道我們已經降低了對下半年消費的預期。坦率地說,我們對消費者在某些特定類別中放慢速度的程度感到驚訝。以美妝為例,您會從大型零售商那裡聽到混雜的信息。他們會告訴你美女做得很好。但是當你解析它並詢問 Beauty 的哪一部分做得好時,你會發現液體做得很好。

  • But the appliances generally do well only in the lower price points. So for us, with a good, better, best portfolio, the better invest gets hurt. The good needs to compete in those lower price points. So we're making those types of assumptions for the back half, meaning that the liquids will continue to do well, which they are already. I called that out in my specific remarks just now.

    但這些電器通常只在較低的價位上表現良好。所以對我們來說,有了好的、更好的、最好的投資組合,更好的投資就會受到傷害。商品需要在那些較低的價格點上競爭。所以我們正在為後半部分做出這些類型的假設,這意味著液體將繼續表現良好,它們已經是這樣了。我剛才在具體發言中提到了這一點。

  • And in the case of the appliances, we're assuming that they'll stay on this downward cycle for the rest of this fiscal year. And on the trade downside, we're taking action on bringing in products that are more suited to those price points on the one hand, on the other hand, bringing some pretty cool new items as well and stimulating the demand, just like we have in the past with consumer-centric innovation on brands that we know people want.

    就家電而言,我們假設它們將在本財年的剩餘時間內保持這種下行週期。在貿易不利方面,我們正在採取行動,一方面引入更適合這些價位的產品,另一方面,也引入一些非常酷的新產品並刺激需求,就像我們所做的那樣過去,我們知道人們想要的品牌以消費者為中心的創新。

  • In the case of the retailer side, it's very similar to the answer from Bob. On the financial health of the consumer, it's very hard to say. It really depends on what the Fed does with the impact on consumers of interest rates and all the other macro stuff that people know.

    在零售商方面,這與 Bob 的回答非常相似。關於消費者的財務狀況,很難說。這實際上取決於美聯儲如何處理利率和人們所知道的所有其他宏觀因素對消費者的影響。

  • In our case, from a market share standpoint, you heard us speak a bit about that in my prepared remarks today, there's a lot of work going on to keep going on the subject of value reframing and to make sure our products are front and center with consumers with the benefits and price points that we know they want today.

    就我們而言,從市場份額的角度來看,您在我今天準備好的發言中聽到我們談了一些關於這一點的內容,還有很多工作正在進行,以繼續討論價值重構的主題,並確保我們的產品處於領先地位和中心位置與消費者一起,我們知道他們今天想要的好處和價位。

  • Noel, before we go to the next question, we do you have any builds on the back half consumption of expectations. Okay. We're good, operator.

    諾埃爾,在我們進入下一個問題之前,我們是否有任何建立在預期後半部分消費的基礎上。好的。我們很好,接線員。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Olivia Tong with Raymond James.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Olivia Tong 和 Raymond James 的台詞。

  • Olivia Tong Cheang - MD & Research Analyst

    Olivia Tong Cheang - MD & Research Analyst

  • Wanted to think a little bit bigger picture about the outlook revision and your view on consumer sentiment and where retailers stand. So my question first is just how, if at all, this has made you think about your portfolio, maybe taking a harder look at some of the categories you're in, the price tiers that you're in, whether there's white space that you should be in or areas where perhaps you should think about strategic alternatives for your business?

    想從更大的角度思考前景修正以及您對消費者情緒和零售商立場的看法。所以我的第一個問題是,如果有的話,這如何讓你思考你的投資組合,也許更仔細地審視你所處的一些類別,你所處的價格等級,是否有空白您應該處於或可能應該為您的企業考慮戰略選擇的領域?

  • Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

    Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

  • Yes, it's a great question, Olivia. We do this all the time, and you've seen us from time to time make adjustments in our portfolio, either bringing things in or even pulling things out and we're not afraid to do either one. Just in Phase II alone, we've made a significant disposition when we took out the mass market Personal Care liquids, but we added in the obvious 3 here, Drybar, Curlsmith, Osprey. So we're not afraid to move on this topic. We are looking at our portfolio now through the same lens of what fits. What we're not doing though is trading down our portfolio in the short term. I can't say that from a consumer health standpoint, this too shall pass for all I know there's a new lower normal for consumers. But I do know that pendulum swing and our products are not only timeless from a branding and trust standpoint, but we work extremely hard to keep them front and center for consumer. We do want to increase the range of products that we have from the good, better, best portfolio because consumers are speaking on that topic.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題,奧利維亞。我們一直這樣做,你會看到我們不時地對我們的投資組合進行調整,要么把東西帶進來,要么甚至把東西拉出來,我們都不怕做任何一個。僅在第二階段,當我們拿出大眾市場個人護理液體時,我們就做出了重大部署,但我們在這裡添加了明顯的 3 個,Drybar、Curlsmith、Osprey。所以我們不怕繼續討論這個話題。我們現在正在通過合適的視角來審視我們的投資組合。不過,我們沒有做的是在短期內降低我們的投資組合。我不能說從消費者健康的角度來看,這也應該過去,因為我知道消費者有一個新的較低的正常值。但我確實知道,鐘擺和我們的產品不僅從品牌和信任的角度來看是永恆的,而且我們非常努力地讓它們成為消費者的首要和中心。我們確實希望從好的、更好的、最好的產品組合中增加我們擁有的產品範圍,因為消費者正在談論這個話題。

  • On the subject of -- what it means for the portfolio, we're taking a look. We're looking inside Health & Wellness. We made that specifically called out in our prepared remarks. That's part of the Pegasus project. And then other parts of our portfolio while we're not looking as hard on what might not be right for our portfolio, we are looking at what might be right to add or to supplement in areas that we already play.

    關於——這對投資組合意味著什麼,我們正在研究。我們正在尋找 Health & Wellness 內部。我們在準備好的評論中特別提到了這一點。這是 Pegasus 項目的一部分。然後是我們投資組合的其他部分,雖然我們沒有認真研究可能不適合我們投資組合的內容,但我們正在研究在我們已經開展的領域中添加或補充哪些內容可能是正確的。

  • In terms of the big picture, I was going to use the moment to get a thought out, which is -- it's not just that the brands are timeless. It's that the work is specific. Specific on new products, specific on new marketing messages. And then we ourselves are specific on shifting resources within the products to favor the ones that have the best prospects.

    就大局而言,我打算利用這一刻來思考一下,那就是——不僅僅是品牌是永恆的。就是工作是具體的。特定於新產品,特定於新的營銷信息。然後我們自己專門在產品內轉移資源,以支持那些具有最佳前景的產品。

  • So from a growth standpoint, there's meaningful building block. We just look at Beauty. Beauty alone has the opportunity to bring some lower price innovations in now. It also has some significant new products that are headed to the marketplace. And in the past, we've innovated and benefited from those in Beauty specifically. If you look at Curlsmith and Osprey, they're both Organic. So this idea of let's look at the portfolio we did. And we went further in prestige liquids and outdoor and what we believe is that (inaudible) continues to grow at the high single-digit rate. That alone, just based on the projections that we've made for them is another $20 million for next year.

    因此,從增長的角度來看,這是有意義的基石。我們只看美。現在,僅美容就有機會帶來一些價格更低的創新。它還擁有一些即將投放市場的重要新產品。過去,我們專門在美容領域進行了創新並從中受益。如果你看看 Curlsmith 和 Osprey,它們都是有機的。所以這個想法讓我們看看我們所做的投資組合。我們在高端液體和戶外領域走得更遠,我們相信(聽不清)繼續以高個位數的速度增長。僅此一項,僅根據我們為他們所做的預測,明年就需要再投入 2000 萬美元。

  • We also believe, but I can't promise this, that the retailers won't need to make the same inventory adjustments for next year because they already made them this year and that alone is another building block. So if you take good brands, new products, good messages, growth in the stuff that's growing and the new marketing messages and new firepower in the stuff that's not, we like our prospects.

    我們也相信,但我不能保證,零售商明年不需要進行相同的庫存調整,因為他們今年已經進行了調整,而這本身就是另一個基石。因此,如果你採用好的品牌、新產品、好的信息、正在增長的東西中的增長以及新的營銷信息和沒有的東西中的新火力,我們喜歡我們的前景。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Lebiedzinski with Sidoti & Company.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Sidoti & Company 的 Anthony Lebiedzinski。

  • Anthony Chester Lebiedzinski - Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Anthony Chester Lebiedzinski - Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I guess in terms of the restructuring plan, can you just walk us through what's the initial kind of low-hanging fruit, so to speak, that you think you'll be kind of the easiest to achieve and kind of which areas will take more time to implement.

    我想就重組計劃而言,您能否向我們介紹一下最初容易實現的成果是什麼,可以這麼說,您認為您將是最容易實現的,哪些領域需要更多實施的時間。

  • Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

    Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

  • Are you talking about growth or you're talking about Pegasus?

    您是在談論增長還是在談論 Pegasus?

  • Anthony Chester Lebiedzinski - Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Anthony Chester Lebiedzinski - Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Pegasus...

    飛馬...

  • Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

    Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

  • I'm glad you're asking about this. And by the way, just so the group knows Noel, I have asked her earlier, she actually has -- she's on the call, she has a technical problem. So we'll speak in her stead on some of these topics, but I assure you she's on the call and highly focused on this. And in the later follow-up call, we'll be a front and center participant.

    很高興你問這個。順便說一下,為了讓大家認識 Noel,我之前問過她,她實際上已經 - 她正在打電話,她遇到了技術問題。因此,我們將代替她就其中一些主題發言,但我向你保證,她正在接聽電話並且高度關注這個問題。在稍後的跟進電話中,我們將成為前台和中心參與者。

  • On the subject of Pegasus, we're very excited about this. And while it hasn't come up in the questions, it's permanent at Helen of Troy. We're moving with speed. We're moving with certainty, and we're moving in the areas that we've chosen.

    關於 Pegasus,我們對此感到非常興奮。雖然它沒有出現在問題中,但它在特洛伊的海倫是永久性的。我們正在快速前進。我們正在堅定不移地前進,並且在我們選擇的領域內前進。

  • To answer your question, the parts that are getting the most focus are the opportunities in cost of goods, the opportunities in distribution, efficiency improvements, bringing down inventory and structural streamlining. So if we just go through those quickly.

    要回答你的問題,最受關注的部分是商品成本機會、分銷機會、效率提高、庫存減少和結構精簡。因此,如果我們只是快速完成這些。

  • On the subject of cost of goods, we see some significant upside on top of all the good stuff that's been done during the transformation for many years. And there's a whole another layer that we now have identified and are moving quickly to go. And I think some of those building blocks will come fairly quickly because of it.

    在商品成本的問題上,我們看到在轉型多年期間所做的所有好事之外還有一些顯著的上升空間。我們現在已經確定了另一層,並且正在快速移動。而且我認為其中一些構建塊會因此而很快出現。

  • In the case of the distribution centers, it's highly tied to inventory. So as we bring our inventory down, the good stuff, meaning the benefits of the new distribution center, the DTC implementation, speed and some other things will just go faster and help us from an efficiency standpoint. It may also allow us to free up some capital in the form of real estate that we may not need and it gives us a flow-through in those warehouses. It's not only more efficient but goes through systems that themselves have been upgraded and give a double (inaudible) and a good guy sense.

    就配送中心而言,它與庫存高度相關。因此,當我們降低庫存時,好的東西,即新配送中心的好處、DTC 實施、速度和其他一些東西會更快,並從效率的角度幫助我們。它還可以讓我們釋放一些我們可能不需要的房地產形式的資本,並讓我們在這些倉庫中流通。它不僅效率更高,而且通過本身已經升級的系統,並提供雙重(聽不清)和好人的感覺。

  • From a sourcing standpoint, as we diversify out of just China into more Mexico and Southeast Asia, the acceleration there, the currency stuff, use of our buying power, consolidation of suppliers, just as examples. These are I don't know if the low hanging fruit, but big projects that are being worked out right now.

    從採購的角度來看,當我們從中國轉向更多的墨西哥和東南亞時,那裡的加速、貨幣因素、我們購買力的使用、供應商的整合等等都是例子。我不知道這些是不是唾手可得的成果,但是現在正在製定的大項目。

  • Pegasus itself is a multiyear initiative. It has a 3-year arc, but these things will come sooner. We're looking at some aspects of SKU rationalization that will help from an inventory standpoint, et cetera. And then if you look at the process and streamlining stuff as the organization streamlines and we've got some interesting ideas that we're working aggressively now that will give us the opportunity to interface the business units to the shared services in ways that just make us go faster, give the business units even more focus on the innovation and the brand building, which is their heart and soul and gives more capability to the shared services. It's just a more efficient matrix.

    Pegasus 本身就是一項多年計劃。它有 3 年的弧度,但這些事情會來得更快。我們正在研究 SKU 合理化的某些方面,這些方面將從庫存的角度等方面提供幫助。然後,如果您在組織精簡時查看流程和精簡內容,我們有一些有趣的想法,我們現在正在積極工作,這將使我們有機會以僅使業務部門與共享服務接口的方式我們走得更快,讓業務部門更加專注於創新和品牌建設,這是他們的核心和靈魂,並賦予共享服務更多的能力。它只是一個更有效的矩陣。

  • So that's the stuff that will come fastest and then we just think it will build from there, throw good brands, a leaner cost structure, a flywheel that's proven itself to have an ROI and then grow our operating margin to just do all of it faster. That's the goal for Pegasus.

    所以這是最快的事情然後我們只是認為它會從那裡建立起來,拋出好的品牌,更精簡的成本結構,一個證明自己具有投資回報率的飛輪,然後增加我們的營業利潤率以更快地完成所有這些.這就是 Pegasus 的目標。

  • Matt, do you have anything to add on that?

    馬特,你有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Matthew J. Osberg - CFO

    Matthew J. Osberg - CFO

  • Yes, Anthony, I think when you ask, you're saying what comes a little bit sooner, what comes later. I would say, as Julien talked about some of the things that are part of Project Pegasus. COGS savings will come later because those are things you got to identify, negotiate and then implement with your vendors and then sell-through and buy your inventory. So that's just a longer tail on realizing some of those COGS savings, whereas more of the SG&A savings in the organization and maybe purchasing efficiencies can be realized sooner.

    是的,安東尼,我想當你問的時候,你是在說什麼來得早一點,什麼來得晚一點。我會說,正如 Julien 談到的一些屬於 Project Pegasus 的事情。 COGS 節省將在稍後出現,因為這些是您必須確定、協商然後與您的供應商實施,然後銷售併購買您的庫存的東西。因此,這只是實現部分 COGS 節省的較長尾巴,而組織中更多的 SG&A 節省以及採購效率可能會更快實現。

  • So in terms of -- Julien said, what are we working on, there's a lot, but in terms of what might be flowing through the P&L sooner rather than later, that's how you should think about it.

    因此,就 Julien 說的而言,我們在做什麼,有很多,但就可能早晚流經 P&L 的內容而言,這就是你應該考慮的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Linda Bolton-Weiser with D.A. Davidson.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Linda Bolton-Weiser 和 D.A.戴維森。

  • Linda Ann Bolton-Weiser - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Linda Ann Bolton-Weiser - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • So I just had a question on, specifically on Hydro Flask. Your comments -- you said in your commentary that the sell-through was up modestly in the quarter, but [they] didn't really say anything about sales, maybe sales were down or something. So I'm just curious, like what is going on exactly. So is it an inventory reduction in the channels that we're seeing for all the other categories? And if sell-through is kind of still pretty healthy, like why would there be the inventory reduction? And like what channel, can you just give a little more flavor on what's going on with Hydro Flask.

    所以我有一個問題,特別是關於 Hydro Flask。你的評論——你在評論中說本季度的銷售量小幅上升,但 [他們] 並沒有真正說出任何關於銷售的事情,也許銷售下降了或者什麼的。所以我只是好奇,就像到底發生了什麼。那麼我們在所有其他類別中看到的渠道庫存是否減少了?如果銷售仍然相當健康,比如為什麼會減少庫存?就像什麼渠道一樣,你能不能多介紹一下 Hydro Flask 的進展情況。

  • Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

    Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Understood. Yes, it's a good question. I'm glad we get the clarification out there because I know folks are extremely interested in Hydro Flask and there's the mixed concept of sell-through and sell-in and therefore, our sales growth versus sell-through and also importantly, market share. So the demand for Hydro Flask remains quite good. The market share is an up and down story. For example -- I'm starting with the consumption here. For example, online, in our biggest online retail customer, we picked up quite a bit of share in the last quarter alone for the fiscal year-to-date. The total business is actually down slightly in share, but not much. It bounces around within 2 or 3 points over the last 2 years or so. And so I would call it more of the same, some ups and down.

    是的。明白了。是的,這是個好問題。我很高興我們得到了澄清,因為我知道人們對 Hydro Flask 非常感興趣,並且存在銷售和銷售的混合概念,因此,我們的銷售增長與銷售增長以及市場份額也很重要。因此,對 Hydro Flask 的需求仍然相當不錯。市場份額是一個上下波動的故事。例如——我從這裡的消費開始。例如,在線,在我們最大的在線零售客戶中,僅在本財年迄今為止的最後一個季度,我們就獲得了相當多的份額。整個業務的份額實際上略有下降,但幅度不大。在過去 2 年左右的時間裡,它在 2 或 3 個點內反彈。所以我會稱之為更多相同的,有些起伏。

  • In the case of the sell-in. The sell-in is slower, and that's hurting our sales. And we say, well, if it's selling out, why is it selling in slower? It's because of that retailer inventory. And then retailers are making 2 adjustments: one, how quickly they replenish and the other is how many weeks on hand they hold.

    在出售的情況下。銷售速度較慢,這損害了我們的銷售。我們說,好吧,如果它賣光了,為什麼它賣得更慢?這是因為零售商庫存。然後零售商進行兩項調整:一是補貨速度,二是庫存週數。

  • So in terms of replenishment, on a normal environment, the retailer will simply replenish to expected demand and actual consumption. In this environment, they're replenishing to 2 bets, one bet is how much more demand will be in the future. And the other is how many weeks on hand they would like to have by the end of whatever period they're buying into.

    所以在補貨方面,在正常環境下,零售商會根據預期需求和實際消耗量進行補貨。在這種環境下,他們正在補貨到 2 個賭注,一個賭注是未來的需求量會增加多少。另一個是他們希望在他們購買的任何時期結束時手頭有多少週。

  • So take now that to specific retailers, each one is a slightly different story based on their strategy against those variables and then separately, their expectations for the holiday season, which determine how much inventory they'd like to have on hand during that time in categories like this.

    所以現在就拿具體的零售商來說,每個零售商的故事都略有不同,這取決於他們針對這些變量的策略,然後分別是他們對假期的預期,這決定了他們在這段時間內希望手頭有多少庫存這樣的類別。

  • And if you look at the fundamentals on Hydro Flask, they look phenomenal. Hydro Flask has its spring collection coming. That will be more of a Q4 and early Q1 story. There are some new products there as well that we're excited about. And we're also excited about the DTC prospects in Hydro Flask. I think there's people on this call that say, "Oh my goodness, I've been hearing that forever." What I'd like to say about that is it's launching this fiscal year and that it will give us a long, long-awaited bump on that topic and help us to catch up with competition who we believe is ahead of us in that area.

    如果您查看 Hydro Flask 的基本原理,它們看起來非常出色。 Hydro Flask 春季系列即將推出。這將更像是第四季度和第一季度早期的故事。那裡也有一些我們很興奮的新產品。我們也對 Hydro Flask 的 DTC 前景感到興奮。我認為有人在這個電話會議上說,“哦,天哪,我一直在聽到這個。”我想說的是,它將在本財年推出,它將給我們帶來一個期待已久的話題,並幫助我們趕上我們認為在該領域領先於我們的競爭對手。

  • And on the retailers themselves, they're just not as aggressive on carrying the inventory, which makes the difference in our sales, and we've put that now into our forecast even further than we did before. That's why you're getting the mix message.

    就零售商本身而言,他們只是沒有那麼積極地持有庫存,這對我們的銷售額產生了影響,我們現在比以前更進一步將其納入我們的預測。這就是您收到混合消息的原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Bob Labick with CJS Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自 CJS Securities 的 Bob Labick。

  • Robert James Labick - President of Research & Managing Partner

    Robert James Labick - President of Research & Managing Partner

  • Thanks for the follow-up here. Matt alluded to the inventory and some sequential improvements in the back half of this year. But maybe just to follow up a little more clarity, how much excess inventory do you estimate you're carrying. And what's the kind of timing for normalization? Is that partially in the second half and then carry into fiscal '24? So how much excess inventory? And when do you kind of get back to a normalized level and get all that cash out of inventory and on to the balance sheet?

    在此感謝您的跟進。馬特提到了今年下半年的庫存和一些連續的改進。但也許只是為了更清楚地跟進,你估計你有多少過剩庫存。正常化的時間是什麼時候?這部分是在下半年,然後進入 24 財年嗎?那麼庫存過剩有多少?你什麼時候能回到正常水平並將所有現金從庫存中取出並記入資產負債表?

  • Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

    Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

  • Sure. Yes, it's a great question. We look at it more about elevated inventory because I know you and others on the call, remember, it was highly strategic to have more inventory during a period of much more supply chain uncertainty and elevated demand, and that helped enormously in fiscal '21 and fiscal '22. Coming into this fiscal year, the slowdown that we're talking about is highly pronounced and not as big as what we expected. So it's more of an elevated and carryover of inventory than in excess. In the case of how quickly it sells down, it really depends on all this sell-through commentary that we have.

    當然。是的,這是一個很好的問題。我們更多地關注高庫存,因為我認識你和其他人,請記住,在供應鏈不確定性和需求增加的時期擁有更多庫存具有高度戰略意義,這對 21 財年和財政'22。進入本財年,我們所說的放緩非常明顯,並沒有我們預期的那麼嚴重。因此,這更多的是庫存的增加和結轉,而不是過多。至於它的銷售速度有多快,這實際上取決於我們擁有的所有這些銷售評論。

  • And then Matt, I don't know how far you'd like to go to try to dimensionalize that for Bob on the subject of conversion to cash. But before I [tip it] to you, I do want to say that the efficiency of our distribution centers and the speed with which the Pegasus projects on that subject can realize their benefits is highly benefited by the sell-down in inventory. So Matt, maybe you have more on this.

    然後是馬特,我不知道您想在多大程度上嘗試為鮑勃在轉換為現金的主題上對其進行維度化。但在我 [提示] 給你之前,我想說的是,我們的配送中心的效率以及 Pegasus 在該主題上的項目實現其利益的速度都因庫存的減少而受益匪淺。所以馬特,也許你對此有更多了解。

  • Matthew J. Osberg - CFO

    Matthew J. Osberg - CFO

  • Yes. And Bob, you picked up on it. I think we are expecting sequential declines in Q3 and Q4. And we said getting to a place by the end of this fiscal, that's flat with where we were at the end of last fiscal. But as Julien pointed out, it is based on sell-through normalizing and seeing how we come out of the holiday period. As we look ahead, I still think that there is opportunity to realize more efficiency out of our inventory and further take that inventory down. I think that would happen throughout fiscal '24 for us as we look ahead. So I think there will be a big step for us getting from where we are now to the end of this year and then another big step as we look into fiscal '24.

    是的。鮑勃,你注意到了。我認為我們預計第三季度和第四季度將出現連續下降。我們說在本財年末達到一個位置,這與我們在上一財年末的位置持平。但正如 Julien 指出的那樣,它是基於銷售正常化並觀察我們如何走出假期的。展望未來,我仍然認為有機會提高庫存效率並進一步降低庫存。展望未來,我認為這將在整個 24 財年發生。因此,我認為我們從現在到今年年底將邁出一大步,然後在我們研究 24 財年時又邁出一大步。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Steve Marotta with CL King & Associates.

    我們的下一個問題來自 CL King & Associates 的 Steve Marotta。

  • Steven Louis Marotta - MD & Director of Research

    Steven Louis Marotta - MD & Director of Research

  • Julien, in the prepared remarks, there was commentary around the potential of sales growth or at least the plan for in fiscal '24. And I know without giving specific guidance, can you talk a little bit about what might have to happen for that to occur or for that to be planned for?

    朱利安,在準備好的發言中,有關於銷售增長潛力或至少 24 財年計劃的評論。我知道在沒有給出具體指導的情況下,您能否談談可能需要發生什麼才能發生或計劃發生什麼?

  • Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

    Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

  • Yes. This is a great question. As you called out, it's awfully hard 18 months out, meaning the midpoint of this fiscal year through the endpoint of next fiscal year to predict the sales growth. We have our normal budget cycle and all of that. So this is more of a spring thing than it is spring '23 discussion and a [follow-on]. But to try to dimensionalize for you, let me give you a couple here and some near term and some longer term. Just start with the current holiday season their programs and the key retail partners in hair appliances, also for Hydro Flask and to some degree for OXO.

    是的。這是一個很好的問題。正如你所說,18 個月後非常困難,這意味著本財政年度的中點到下一財政年度的終點預測銷售增長。我們有正常的預算週期等等。所以這更像是春季的事情,而不是 23 年春季的討論和 [後續]。但是為了嘗試為您確定維度,讓我在這裡給您幾個,一些是近期的,一些是長期的。從當前的假期開始,他們的計劃和美髮器具的主要零售合作夥伴,也適用於 Hydro Flask,在某種程度上適用於 OXO。

  • In addition, Hydro Flask, I just talked through some of the building blocks with Linda. And as I mentioned before, that spring seasonal reset of new line products is really more of a Q1 thing. So that will be more fiscal '24 than it is fiscal '23. The new direct-to-consumer program, especially focused on Hydro Flask, but frankly, not just Hydro Flask, it will expand into Beauty as well and into OXO because we're building a pretty awesome platform. And that platform gets to scale as we bring those new tools online. It's pretty awesome. And the point about it is that's a fiscal '24 good guy.

    此外,Hydro Flask,我剛剛與 Linda 討論了一些構建塊。正如我之前提到的,新系列產品的春季季節性重置更像是第一季度的事情。因此,這將比 23 財年更多的是 24 財年。新的直接面向消費者的計劃,特別關注 Hydro Flask,但坦率地說,不僅僅是 Hydro Flask,它還將擴展到 Beauty 以及 OXO,因為我們正在構建一個非常棒的平台。隨著我們將這些新工具上線,該平台得到擴展。太棒了。重點是這是一個財政'24好人。

  • The Beauty innovations, there's some pretty sexy stuff coming, start with a few items that are meaningful from a consumer standpoint. I don't think of the person on this call who enjoys the loud sound of a hair dryer. And while many hairdryers have different tones of sound, a few of them are meaningfully quieter than others. And yet we're bringing a product that does not sacrifice on power, but does improve on that timeless vector of quietness.

    美容創新,一些非常性感的東西即將到來,從一些從消費者的角度來看有意義的項目開始。我不認為這個電話中的人喜歡吹風機的響亮聲音。雖然許多吹風機有不同的聲音,但其中一些比其他吹風機更安靜。然而,我們帶來的產品並沒有犧牲功率,而是改進了永恆的安靜矢量。

  • There's another on the one-step franchise for Beauty, especially on Revlon now, where we've had enormous success, but now I think in the curling and drying area as opposed to the volumizer and drying area, so excited like this in a big way.

    Beauty 的一步特許經營權還有另一個,尤其是現在的露華濃,我們在那裡取得了巨大的成功,但現在我認為在捲髮和乾燥區域而不是豐盈劑和乾燥區域,在一個大的中如此興奮方法。

  • When you look at the Health & Wellness stuff, some of that is seasonal, right? It depends on the cough and cold and all of that. And omicron has been up and down, so has delta before that. So it's hard to predict a big driver, just let the seasonality play through. But the point is when people get sick, we have exactly what they want and our market shares prove it.

    當您查看健康與保健方面的內容時,其中一些是季節性的,對嗎?這取決於咳嗽和感冒等等。 omicron 一直在上下波動,之前的 delta 也是如此。所以很難預測一個大的驅動因素,讓季節性發揮作用。但關鍵是當人們生病時,我們正是他們想要的東西,我們的市場份額證明了這一點。

  • And then lastly, on the subject of the retail trade, there's an inherent building block, which is, I mentioned before, they are unlikely to need to do an inventory correction of this size again because if you bring it down, then it's down. Only thing that would make that happen is if the consumer falls off the cliff from a financial health standpoint, and I don't think anybody is expecting it to go so low that you'd get something of same size as what happened this year. So there's an inherent building block of not having to anniversary that with another decline of the same stocks. So these things are all good guys.

    最後,關於零售業,有一個固有的組成部分,就是我之前提到的,他們不太可能需要再次進行這種規模的庫存修正,因為如果你降低它,那麼它就會降低。唯一能讓這種情況發生的事情是,如果消費者從財務健康的角度來看從懸崖上掉下來,我認為沒有人會期望它會跌到如此低的水平,以至於你會得到與今年發生的情況相同的規模。因此,有一個內在的基石,即不必在同一隻股票再次下跌的情況下週年紀念日。所以這些東西都是好人。

  • When you take the international aspect. There are certain countries, products, categories that we're excited about and then the classic stream of innovation that always comes from our products, all of these make a big difference for us.

    當您考慮國際方面的問題時。我們對某些國家、產品、類別感到興奮,然後經典的創新流總是來自我們的產品,所有這些都對我們產生了很大的影響。

  • So that's enough, in our view, to be optimistic about returning to growth on the top line, and yet we'll have to go through the budget process, the sizing, all of that and how much we can afford to put our shoulder behind it, which depends quite a lot on how quickly we can realize the savings from Pegasus.

    因此,在我們看來,這足以讓我們對收入恢復增長持樂觀態度,但我們必須通過預算流程、規模調整,所有這些以及我們有能力承擔多少它,這在很大程度上取決於我們可以多快地實現 Pegasus 的節省。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Linda Bolton-Weiser with D.A. Davidson.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Linda Bolton-Weiser 和 D.A.戴維森。

  • Linda Ann Bolton-Weiser - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Linda Ann Bolton-Weiser - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • We've had some questions from investors about the general situation with the price increases. I guess investors are expecting that some of the price increases that have been taken will have to be rolled back. Are you seeing that happen? And can you just kind of comment on the whole pricing situation?

    投資者對價格上漲的總體情況提出了一些問題。我猜投資者預計已經採取的一些價格上漲將不得不回滾。你看到這種情況了嗎?你能對整個定價情況發表評論嗎?

  • Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

    Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Consumers are less financially healthy than before in general, as pockets, right? Some groups of consumers different than others. But the inflation is nobody's friend. So to the extent that our price increases add to it, then in that way, the prices are not the friends of purchases. That said, costs are up, so are salaries, real incomes, they benefit from the wage increases, but also get eaten away by the inflation.

    是的。總體而言,消費者的財務狀況不如以前健康,對吧?一些消費者群體與其他消費者群體不同。但通貨膨脹不是任何人的朋友。因此,如果我們的價格上漲增加了它,那麼價格就不是購買的朋友。也就是說,成本上升了,工資、實際收入也上升了,它們從工資增長中受益,但也會被通貨膨脹吞噬。

  • So the consumer is actually a bit worse off in general, on average, I think 8% inflation, but maybe not 8% salary increase for everyone. And so from the standpoint of pricing pressure, it's there.

    所以消費者實際上總體上有點糟糕,平均而言,我認為通貨膨脹率為 8%,但可能不是每個人都加薪 8%。因此,從定價壓力的角度來看,它就在那裡。

  • In terms of our prices, in general, our prices have stuck, and it's our intention to try to continue that. And that said, we will adjust as needed to protect our market share. And the marketplace is strong on that subject, it moderates supply and demand and price to get to the new normal. So we'll do what we have to do. And then in certain pockets, we're testing what would happen if we did a bit less on price and in other areas we're sticking fast to find out where that new normal is.

    就我們的價格而言,總的來說,我們的價格已經停滯不前,我們打算繼續這樣做。也就是說,我們將根據需要進行調整以保護我們的市場份額。市場在這個問題上很強大,它調節供需和價格以達到新常態。所以我們會做我們必須做的。然後在某些方面,我們正在測試如果我們在價格上做得少一點會發生什麼,而在其他方面我們會堅持快速找出新常態在哪裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Mininberg for any final comments.

    謝謝你。女士們,先生們,我們的問答環節到此結束。最後請 Mininberg 先生髮表最後意見。

  • Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

    Julien R. Mininberg - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thank you, operator. Thank you, everybody, for being on the call today. I hope people walk away with the key messages around where we are on our outlook for fiscal '23, which is to take a good, hard look at the trends that we've seen, own, frankly, and embrace the facts of where we are in terms of market share, inventory and some of the other things that I mentioned that are unique to Helen of Troy in our comments earlier today and in these answers.

    是的。謝謝你,運營商。謝謝大家今天的電話會議。我希望人們帶著我們對 23 財年展望的關鍵信息走開,即認真、認真地審視我們已經看到、擁有、坦率地接受並接受我們所處的事實就市場份額、庫存和我在今天早些時候的評論和這些答案中提到的特洛伊海倫獨有的其他一些事情而言。

  • And then I hope people see the power of what we're trying to do with Pegasus. Pegasus is revolutionary. We've not done a structure -- a restructuring of this size in almost a decade. And what it's going to do for us, as outlined in the call, is generate significant savings that we'll use to refuel that flywheel and bring what I hope will be the best is yet to come, and that is very much our intention and act with speed.

    然後我希望人們能看到我們試圖用 Pegasus 做的事情的力量。飛馬是革命性的。近十年來,我們還沒有進行過這種規模的結構重組。正如電話中概述的那樣,它將為我們做的是節省大量資金,我們將用這些資金為飛輪加油,並帶來我希望最好的東西尚未到來,這正是我們的意圖和快速行動。

  • So with that, we look forward to talking to many of you in the coming hours, actually in the next couple of days, and then I'm sure we'll meet with many of you as we're now out of our quiet period and answer all of your questions. Hope you have a wonderful day. Thank you.

    因此,我們期待在接下來的幾個小時內,實際上是在接下來的幾天內與你們中的許多人交談,然後我相信我們會與你們中的許多人會面,因為我們現在已經結束了我們的安靜期並回答你所有的問題。希望你有個美好的一天。謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    謝謝你。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。