家得寶公佈 2024 財年銷售強勁,重點關注改善購物體驗和增加專業客戶份額的策略性舉措。該公司計劃在2025財年開設新店,預計總銷售額將成長2.8%。儘管面臨融資項目和天氣影響的挑戰,家得寶仍然對未來的成長機會保持樂觀。
該公司對 2025 年的展望包括 1% 的同店成長和 2.8% 的整體成長,對能力和網路銷售績效的投資將推動參與度的提高。該公司對最近收購的財務表現感到滿意,並準備應對關稅的潛在影響。營業利潤率指引反映出下降,自然去槓桿和組合轉變等因素導致了這種變化。
總體而言,家得寶專注於建立關係、提升能力和投資生產力以推動長期成功。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to The Home Depot fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
大家好,歡迎參加家得寶 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)提醒一下,本次會議正在錄音。
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Isabel Janci. Please go ahead.
現在我很高興介紹您的主持人伊莎貝爾詹西 (Isabel Janci)。請繼續。
Isabel Janci - Vice President, Investor Relations & Treasurer
Isabel Janci - Vice President, Investor Relations & Treasurer
Thank you, Christine, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Home Depot's fourth-quarter and fiscal year 2024 earnings call. Joining us on our call today are Ted Decker, Chair, President and CEO; Ann-Marie Campbell, Senior Executive Vice President; Billy Bastek, Executive Vice President of Merchandising; and Richard McPhail, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝你,克里斯汀,大家早安。歡迎參加家得寶 2024 財年第四季和財報電話會議。今天參加我們電話會議的有董事長、總裁兼執行長 Ted Decker; Ann-Marie Campbell,資深執行副總裁;商品銷售執行副總裁 Billy Bastek;以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Richard McPhail。
Following our prepared remarks, the call will be open for questions. Questions will be limited to analysts and investors. And as a reminder, please limit yourself to one question with one follow-up. If we are unable to get to your question during the call, please call Investor Relations at (770) 384-2387.
在我們準備好發言之後,電話會議將開放提問。問題僅限於分析師和投資者。提醒一下,請將問題限制在一個並進行一次跟進。如果我們無法在通話中回答您的問題,請撥打投資者關係電話 (770) 384-2387。
Before I turn the call over to Ted, let me remind you that today's press release and the presentations made by our executives include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the release and in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K, and our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
在我將電話轉給泰德之前,請允許我提醒您,今天的新聞稿和我們高管的陳述包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。這些風險和不確定因素包括但不限於本新聞稿、我們最近的 10-K 表年度報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中確定的因素。
Today's presentation will also include certain non-GAAP measures, including but not limited to adjusted operating margin, adjusted diluted earnings per share and return on invested capital. For a reconciliation of these and other non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures, please refer to our earnings press release and our website.
今天的報告還將包括某些非公認會計準則指標,包括但不限於調整後的營業利益率、調整後的每股稀釋收益和投資資本回報率。有關這些和其他非 GAAP 指標與相應的 GAAP 指標的調節,請參閱我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站。
Now, let me turn the call over to Ted.
現在,讓我把電話轉給泰德。
Edward Decker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Edward Decker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Isabel, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝你,伊莎貝爾,大家早安。
Sales for fiscal 2024 were $159.5 billion, an increase of 4.5% from the same period last year. Comp sales declined 1.8% from the same period last year, and our US stores had negative comps of 1.8%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $15.24, compared to $15.25 in the prior year. In the fourth quarter, comp sales increased 0.8% from last year, and comps in our US stores were up 1.3%.
2024財年的銷售額為1,595億美元,年增4.5%。同店銷售額較去年同期下降 1.8%,其中美國門市同店銷售額下降 1.8%。調整後每股攤薄收益為 15.24 美元,去年同期為 15.25 美元。第四季度,同店銷售額較去年同期成長 0.8%,其中美國門市同店銷售額成長 1.3%。
Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $3.13, compared to $2.86 in the prior year. In the quarter, we saw broad-based engagement across our geographies, as 15 of our 19 US regions delivered positive comps. In addition, both Canada and Mexico reported positive comps in local currency.
調整後每股攤薄收益為 3.13 美元,去年同期為 2.86 美元。本季度,我們看到了跨地區的廣泛參與,美國 19 個地區中有 15 個地區實現了積極的成長。此外,加拿大和墨西哥均報告了當地貨幣的正增長。
Our fourth-quarter results exceeded our expectations as we saw greater engagement in home improvement spend, despite ongoing pressure on large remodeling projects. Throughout the year, we remain steadfast in our investments across our strategic initiatives, despite uncertain macroeconomic conditions and a higher interest rate environment that impacted home improvement demand.
儘管大型改造項目持續面臨壓力,但我們第四季度的業績超出了預期,因為我們看到家居裝修支出的參與度有所提高。全年,儘管宏觀經濟條件不確定且較高的利率環境影響了家居裝修需求,但我們仍然堅定不移地對各項戰略舉措進行投資。
Our strategic priorities remain creating the best interconnected shopping experience, growing our Pro wallet share through a unique ecosystem of capabilities and building new stores. We are always improving our interconnected shopping experience. We know that our customers want faster delivery than ever before.
我們的策略重點仍然是創造最佳的互聯購物體驗,透過獨特的功能生態系統增加我們的 Pro 錢包份額並建立新店。我們始終致力於改善我們的互聯購物體驗。我們知道我們的客戶希望比以前更快交貨。
Recall that last quarter, I shared the progress we made with our investments in our downstream supply chain, including an expanded assortment in our DFCs to allow for faster delivery speeds across more products. We also began leveraging our stores to offer more delivery options. Our delivery speeds are now the fastest they've ever been, and customers are increasing their spend. Billy will take you through these results in a moment. Growing our share of wallet with our Pro customers is a key part of our growth strategy. We've continued investing in our store experience, fulfillment options and sales teams. These investments are delivering incremental sales growth, and Ann will discuss this in detail shortly.
回想一下上個季度,我分享了我們在下游供應鏈投資方面取得的進展,包括擴大 DFC 的品種,以便加快更多產品的交付速度。我們也開始利用我們的商店提供更多的送貨選擇。我們的送貨速度現在是有史以來最快的,而且客戶的支出也在增加。比利馬上就會帶您了解這些結果。增加我們專業客戶的錢包份額是我們成長策略的關鍵部分。我們持續投資於我們的店鋪體驗、履行選項和銷售團隊。這些投資正在帶來銷售額的逐步成長,Ann 稍後將對此進行詳細討論。
In June, we completed the acquisition of SRS. And while we've only owned them for seven months, we could not be happier with the business. The capabilities that SRS brings are both additive and complementary to our strategic efforts. As expected, for fiscal 2024, SRS contributed $6.4 billion in sales for the seven months we owned them. And since we acquired them in June, they have opened over 20 greenfield locations and completed four tuck-in acquisitions.
6月份,我們完成了對SRS的收購。儘管我們只擁有它們七個月,但我們對這項業務感到非常滿意。SRS 帶來的能力對於我們的策略努力既是附加的,也是補充的。正如預期的那樣,在 2024 財年,SRS 在我們擁有其的七個月內貢獻了 64 億美元的銷售額。自從我們六月收購他們以來,他們已經開設了 20 多家新店,並完成了四次收購。
We're also focusing on many cross-sell opportunities with SRS. As an example, we've talked about the opportunity of QuoteCenter, our platform that provides real-time quote pricing and different fulfillment options for larger job lot quantities. SRS was already in QuoteCenter, but not in all markets. Today, they are in nearly every market with their roofing products. And since making this change, we have seen SRS' sales and QuoteCenter more than triple. Going forward, we will continue to support SRS' momentum. We expect their organic sales to grow mid-single digits in fiscal 2025.
我們也關注許多與 SRS 的交叉銷售機會。舉例來說,我們討論了 QuoteCenter 的機會,這是我們的平台,它為大量工作提供即時報價和不同的履行選項。SRS 已在 QuoteCenter 中,但並非在所有市場中。如今,他們的屋頂產品幾乎遍布每個市場。自從做出這項改變以來,我們看到 SRS 的銷售額和 QuoteCenter 成長了兩倍以上。展望未來,我們將繼續支持 SRS 的發展動能。我們預計,到 2025 財年,他們的有機銷售額將實現中等個位數成長。
Our real estate footprint remains one of our distinct competitive advantages. We are expanding that footprint by investing in new stores in areas that have experienced population growth, or where it makes sense to relieve pressure on existing high-volume stores. In fiscal 2024, we opened 12 new stores, 10 in the US, and two in Mexico. We are seeing great results from these stores, which are outperforming our expectations. For fiscal 2025, we plan to open 13 new stores.
我們的房地產足跡仍然是我們獨特的競爭優勢之一。我們正在透過在人口成長的地區或可以緩解現有大宗商店壓力的地區投資開設新店來擴大業務範圍。2024 財年,我們開了 12 家新店,其中 10 家在美國,2 家在墨西哥。我們看到這些商店的業績非常出色,超出了我們的預期。2025財年,我們計劃開設13家新店。
For fiscal 2025, we expect total sales growth of approximately 2.8%, comparable sales growth of approximately 1%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share to decline approximately 2%. We remain excited about all our growth opportunities, and we feel confident that the investments we are making will set us up for continued success.
對於 2025 財年,我們預期總銷售額將成長約 2.8%,可比銷售額成長約 1%,調整後每股攤薄收益將下降約 2%。我們對所有的成長機會仍然感到興奮,我們相信,我們正在進行的投資將為我們帶來持續的成功。
I want to close by thanking our associates for their hard work and dedication to our customers in the fourth quarter and throughout the year. Our results reflect strong execution by our stores, merchants and supply chain teams, as well as our vendor partners, as they remain focused on delivering value and service to our customers.
最後,我要感謝我們的員工在第四季度和全年的辛勤工作以及對客戶的奉獻。我們的業績反映了我們的商店、商家和供應鏈團隊以及我們的供應商合作夥伴的強大執行力,因為他們仍然專注於為我們的客戶提供價值和服務。
With that, let me turn the call over to Ann.
說完這些,讓我把電話轉給安。
Ann-Marie Campbell - Senior Executive Vice President
Ann-Marie Campbell - Senior Executive Vice President
Thanks, Ted, and good morning, everyone. Our thoughts continue to be with everyone impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the devastating fires in Los Angeles. We are here as these communities rebuild with our associates and suppliers who consistently go above and beyond to serve our customers, and I want to thank them for all that they do.
謝謝,泰德,大家早安。我們的思念始終與所有受到海倫颶風和米爾頓颶風以及洛杉磯毀滅性火災影響的人們同在。我們在這裡與我們的同事和供應商一起重建這些社區,他們始終如一地竭盡全力為我們的客戶服務,我要感謝他們所做的一切。
As you heard from Ted, growing our share of wallet with the Pro is a key part of our growth strategy, and I would like to take a moment to talk more about the progress we've made. For the quarter, all our Pro cohorts positive comp, and it is clear that our initiatives are working. Over the last few years, we have made investments in our stores, as well as through our Pro ecosystem, to improve the stocking experience for all of our Pros regardless of their purchase occasion.
正如您從泰德那裡聽到的,透過 Pro 增加我們的錢包份額是我們成長策略的關鍵部分,我想花點時間更多地談談我們所取得的進展。本季度,我們所有的 Pro 團隊都取得了積極的成績,很明顯我們的舉措正在發揮作用。在過去幾年裡,我們對我們的商店以及我們的專業生態系統進行了投資,以改善所有專業人士的庫存體驗,無論他們的購買場合如何。
Whether they are shopping in store, online or getting delivery from stores or our distribution centers. We know that nearly all Pro shop or stores, over the years, we have been investing across our stores to simplify and enhance the in-store shopping experience through investments in our breakthrough process and technology to increase on-shelf availability.
無論他們是在商店購物、在網上購物,還是從商店或我們的配送中心送貨。我們知道,多年來,幾乎所有的專業商店都一直在對整個商店進行投資,透過投資突破性流程和技術來簡化和增強店內購物體驗,以提高貨架上的商品供應量。
Investments in inventory to provide a deeper assortment and double our quantities in core SKUs. Enhancements in our labor model and the introduction of CSMs, or dedicated customer experienced managers, and the development of selling tools to provide better insights for our associates to help serve the Pro.
投資庫存以提供更深層的品種,並使核心 SKU 的數量增加一倍。我們改進了勞動模式,引入了 CSM,即專門的客戶體驗經理,並開發了銷售工具,為我們的員工提供更好的見解,幫助為專業人士提供服務。
In addition to these in-store investments, our investments in the FDC network have improved the in-store experience by taking many deliveries out of the store, which reduces clutter in the house from staged orders. As a result, our in-stock have improved, and our associate availability is higher. The FDC has also enabled faster delivery, expanded fulfillment options and more consistent on-time and complete the delivery of larger orders directly to the job side.
除了這些店內投資之外,我們對 FDC 網路的投資還透過將許多貨物配送到店外來改善了店內體驗,減少了分階段訂單造成的店內混亂。因此,我們的庫存有所改善,員工可用性也更高。FDC 還實現了更快的交付速度、更廣泛的履行選項以及更一致的按時交付,並直接將更大的訂單交付給工作方。
We also continue to build out a more comprehensive set of capabilities in our Pro ecosystem. These capabilities include a broader and deeper assortment of products in the FDC, dedicated sales teams that provide a higher level of service, enhanced selling tools with CRM capabilities to better serve our customers, additional digital capabilities through a B2B website, loyalty and preferred pricing programs. It is all of these capabilities as well as enhancement in store that have really allowed us to win a greater share of wallet with all our Pros.
我們也將繼續在我們的 Pro 生態系統中建立更全面的功能。這些功能包括 FDC 中更廣泛和更深入的產品分類、提供更高水準服務的專門銷售團隊、具有 CRM 功能的增強型銷售工具以更好地服務我們的客戶、透過 B2B 網站提供的額外數位功能、忠誠度和優惠定價計劃。正是這些功能以及店內改進真正讓我們贏得了所有專業人士的青睞。
Our initiatives are resonating with Pros and not only are we gaining traction with the larger Pro that works on complex projects, we are also seeing meaningful lift in sales with all Pros across all purchase occasions. In fact, these investments have driven over $1 billion in incremental sales on an annualized basis in 17 markets. Even in these 17 markets, we are in different stages of maturity, and there's still a lot to do to better serve all our Pros.
我們的舉措得到了專業人士的共鳴,我們不僅得到了從事複雜項目的大型專業人士的青睞,而且我們還看到所有專業人士在所有購買場合的銷售額都得到了顯著提升。事實上,這些投資已在 17 個市場帶來年均超過 10 億美元的增量銷售額。即使在這 17 個市場中,我們也處於不同的成熟階段,並且仍有許多工作要做,才能更好地服務我們所有的專業人士。
From improving our delivery experience, to build in new capabilities like trade credit and order management, to leveraging SRS and improving connectivity with our stores. We know that as we invest across all of our assets, it will allow us to more uniquely serve the Pro.
從改善我們的交付體驗,到建立貿易信用和訂單管理等新功能,再到利用 SRS 並改善與我們商店的連接性。我們知道,當我們投資所有資產時,它將使我們能夠為專業人士提供更獨特的服務。
We have a lot to be proud of this year. We continue to focus on delivering the best customer experience in home improvement. We've seen great associate engagement and historically high retention rates. Our safety performance was exceptional, and we've made significant progress in shrink, driven by our company-specific initiatives. All of these efforts are positioning us well and will allow us to continue to grow with all of our customers.
今年我們有很多值得驕傲的事。我們將繼續致力於在家庭裝修領域提供最佳的客戶體驗。我們看到了很高的員工參與度和歷史性的高留任率。我們的安全表現非常出色,並且在公司特定措施的推動下,我們在收縮方面取得了重大進展。所有這些努力都使我們處於有利地位,並將使我們能夠與所有客戶一起繼續成長。
Thank you. And with that, let me turn the call over to Billy.
謝謝。現在,讓我把電話轉給比利。
William Bastek - Executive Vice President - Merchandising
William Bastek - Executive Vice President - Merchandising
Thank you, Ann, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by also thanking all of our associates and supplier partners for their ongoing commitment to serving our customers and communities.
謝謝你,安,大家早安。首先,我還要感謝我們所有的同事和供應商合作夥伴,感謝他們持續致力於服務我們的客戶和社區。
As you heard from Ted, our performance during the fourth quarter exceeded our expectations as we saw broader engagement across home improvement-related projects. In addition, we also saw incremental sales as a result of the ongoing hurricane recovery efforts. However, the higher interest rate environment continues to pressure larger remodeling projects.
正如您從泰德那裡聽到的,我們第四季度的業績超出了我們的預期,因為我們看到與家居裝修相關的項目的參與度更加廣泛。此外,由於正在進行的颶風恢復工作,我們的銷售額也出現了成長。然而,較高的利率環境繼續給更大規模的改造項目帶來壓力。
Turning to our merchandising department comp performance for the fourth quarter, 10 of our 16 departments posted positive comps, including appliances, indoor garden, lumber, power, building materials, paint, outdoor garden, storage, hardware and plumbing. During the fourth quarter, our comp transactions increased 0.6%, and comp average ticket increased 0.2%. Inflation from core commodity categories positively impacted our average ticket by approximately 20 basis points, driven by inflation in lumber and copper wire.
回顧第四季度的商品部門業績,16 個部門中有 10 個部門的業績表現良好,包括家電、室內花園、木材、電力、建築材料、油漆、室外花園、倉儲、五金和管道。第四季度,我們的同店交易量成長了 0.6%,同店平均票價成長了 0.2%。受木材和銅線通膨的推動,核心商品類別的通膨對我們的平均票價產生了約 20 個基點的正面影響。
Additionally, during the quarter, we continue to see our customers trading up for new and innovative products. Big ticket comp transactions, or those over $1,000, were up 0.9% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. We were pleased with the performance we saw in categories such as appliances, building materials and lumber. However, we continue to see softer engagement and larger discretionary projects for customers typically use financing to fund the project such as kitchen and bath remodels.
此外,在本季度,我們繼續看到客戶購買新的和創新的產品。大額交易(即價值超過 1,000 美元的交易)與去年第四季相比成長了 0.9%。我們對家電、建築材料和木材等類別的表現感到滿意。然而,我們繼續看到參與度下降和更大的可自由支配的項目,因為客戶通常使用融資來資助廚房和浴室改造等項目。
During the fourth quarter, both Pro and DIY comp sales were positive, with Pro outpacing the DIY customer. In the fourth quarter, we saw strength across many Pro-heavy categories like gypsum, decking, concrete, and fencing.
在第四季度,Pro 和 DIY 的銷售額均為正值,但 Pro 的銷售額超過了 DIY 客戶。在第四季度,我們看到石膏、地板、混凝土和圍欄等許多專業重型類別的強勁成長。
Turning to total company online sales. Excluding the impact of the extra week in the quarter, sales leveraging our digital platforms increased approximately 9%, compared to the fourth quarter of last year. There are a lot of drivers to our online success. From the focus on continuously improving the shopping and browsing experience, to enhancing the delivery and post-delivery experience, to leveraging AI to enhance our chat features, product descriptions and creating rating summaries for our customers.
轉向公司線上銷售額總額。除去本季額外一週的影響,利用我們的數位平台的銷售額與去年第四季相比成長了約 9%。我們的線上成功有很多驅動因素。從專注於不斷改善購物和瀏覽體驗,到增強配送和配送後體驗,再到利用人工智慧增強我們的聊天功能、產品描述和為我們的客戶創建評級摘要。
This quarter, I'd like to talk more specifically about delivery. As you heard from Ted, we remain focused on continuing to improve our interconnected retail experience and have made significant progress on the delivery experience for our customers. We have invested in a broader assortment across our 19 DSCs, established partnerships with third-party last mile providers, and made technology improvements across our 2,000-plus stores to better utilize all of our assets for the benefit of our customers.
本季度,我想更具體地談談交付問題。正如您從泰德那裡聽到的,我們仍然專注於繼續改善我們的互聯零售體驗,並在為客戶提供交付體驗方面取得了重大進展。我們在 19 家 DSC 中投資了更廣泛的商品組合,與第三方最後一英里提供者建立了合作夥伴關係,並在我們的 2,000 多家商店中進行了技術改進,以更好地利用我們的所有資產,為我們的客戶謀福利。
Today, we have the fastest delivery speeds across the greatest number of products in company history. Our customers also have more fulfillment options than ever before. They can choose what they want, when they want, including same-day and next-day delivery. We know that driving a superior customer experience, including speed of delivery, drives greater customer satisfaction, higher engagement, higher conversion and ultimately, more sales.
今天,我們擁有公司史上最快、產品種類最多的交付速度。我們的客戶也擁有比以往更多的履行選擇。他們可以在需要的時候選擇需要的物品,包括當天送達和隔天送達。我們知道,推動卓越的客戶體驗(包括交付速度)可以提高客戶滿意度、參與度、轉換率,並最終帶來更多的銷售。
We've seen these customers who are engaging in our delivery capabilities meaningfully increase their overall spend with us across all purchase occasions and channels. During the fourth quarter, we hosted our appliance Gift Center decorative holiday and Black Friday events. We saw strong engagements across all of these events with our appliance and Gift Center events posting record sales years. We're looking forward to the year ahead, particularly with the spring selling season right around the corner, and we have a great lineup of new and innovative products from live goods to outdoor power equipment.
我們看到,這些參與我們交付功能的客戶在所有購買場合和管道中對我們的整體支出都有所增加。第四季度,我們舉辦了家電禮品中心裝飾節慶和黑色星期五活動。我們在所有這些活動中都看到了強勁的參與度,我們的家電和禮品中心活動創下了銷售記錄。我們對來年充滿期待,特別是春季銷售季節即將到來,我們擁有從活體商品到戶外動力設備的一系列全新創新產品。
We continue to see an industry-wide shift from gas-powered to battery-powered tools, and we have been leaning into this trend for some time. We have the brands that matter most to our customers, including RYOBI, Milwaukee, DEWALT and Makita. In our spring gift center event, we will provide our largest assortment of battery-powered products with longer run times and enhanced performance across a number of battery platforms, including RYOBI ONE, Milwaukee M18 FORGE, DEWALT XR PowerPack and Powerstack, and Makita LXT, to name a few.
我們持續看到整個產業從燃氣驅動工具向電池驅動工具的轉變,並且我們已經傾向於這種趨勢一段時間了。我們擁有對客戶最重要的品牌,包括 RYOBI、Milwaukee、DEWALT 和 Makita。在我們的春季禮品中心活動中,我們將提供種類最齊全的電池供電產品,這些產品運行時間更長,性能更強,涵蓋多個電池平台,包括 RYOBI ONE、Milwaukee M18 FORGE、DEWALT XR PowerPack 和 Powerstack、以及 Makita LXT 等等。
We're also excited about our live goods program. Each year, our merchants partner with a wide network of regional and local growers to ensure that our customers have new and improved varieties and the right localized assortments to enhance the overall garden experience.
我們對我們的活體商品計劃也感到非常興奮。每年,我們的商家都會與廣泛的區域和本地種植者網絡合作,以確保我們的客戶擁有新的和改良的品種以及合適的本地化品種,以增強整體的花園體驗。
Investing in our relationships with our growers will allow us to continue to drive innovation to meet our customers' needs and improve their shopping experience, while building loyalty to The Home Depot. As we look forward to spring, we are excited about continuing to provide a broad assortment of best-in-class products that are in stock and available for our customers when, and how they need it.
投資我們與種植者的關係將使我們能夠繼續推動創新,以滿足客戶的需求並改善他們的購物體驗,同時建立對家得寶的忠誠度。當我們展望春天的時候,我們很高興能夠繼續提供各種各樣的一流的產品,這些產品有庫存,並可以在客戶需要的時候以他們需要的方式供應。
With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Richard.
說完這些,我想把電話轉給理查。
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Billy, and good morning, everyone.
謝謝你,比利,大家早安。
In the fourth quarter, total sales were $39.7 billion, an increase of $4.9 billion, or approximately 14% from last year. Fiscal 2024 included a 53rd week, which added approximately $2.5 billion in sales for the quarter and the year. During the fourth quarter, our total company comps were positive 0.8%, with comps of negative 1.7% in November, positive 6.6% in December and negative 2% in January.
第四季度,總銷售額為397億美元,較去年同期增加49億美元,增幅約14%。2024 財年包括第 53 週,該季度和全年的銷售額增加了約 25 億美元。第四季度,我們公司整體同店銷售額成長 0.8%,其中 11 月同店銷售額下降 1.7%,12 月同店銷售額下降 6.6%,1 月同店銷售額下降 2%。
Comps in the US were positive 1.3% for the quarter, with comps of negative 2% in November, positive 8% in December, and negative 1.4% in January. It is important to note that holiday shifts positively impacted December, while negatively impacting November and January. Our results for the fourth quarter include a net contribution of approximately $220 million in hurricane-related sales, which positively impacted total company comps by approximately 65 basis points for the quarter.
本季美國同店銷售額為正 1.3%,其中 11 月同店銷售額為負 2%,12 月同店銷售額為正 8%,1 月同店銷售額為負 1.4%。值得注意的是,假期變化對 12 月產生了積極影響,而對 11 月和 1 月產生了負面影響。我們第四季的業績包括颶風相關銷售的淨貢獻約 2.2 億美元,這對本季的公司整體業績產生了約 65 個基點的正面影響。
Additionally, foreign exchange rates negatively impacted total company comps by approximately 70 basis points for the quarter. For the year, our sales totaled $159.5 billion, an increase of $6.8 billion, or 4.5%, versus fiscal 2023. For the year, total company comp sales decreased 1.8%, and US comp sales decreased 1.8%.
此外,外匯匯率對本季公司整體業績產生了負面影響,約 70 個基點。全年我們的銷售總額為 1,595 億美元,比 2023 財年增加 68 億美元,增幅 4.5%。全年而言,該公司整體同店銷售額下降 1.8%,美國同店銷售額下降 1.8%。
In the fourth quarter, our gross margin was approximately 32.8%, a decrease of 25 basis points from the fourth quarter last year, reflecting a change in mix as a result of the SRS acquisition, which was in line with our expectations. For the year, our gross margin was approximately 33.4%, an increase of approximately 5 basis points from last year, which was in line with our expectations.
第四季度,我們的毛利率約為 32.8%,較去年第四季下降 25 個基點,反映了收購 SRS 導致的產品組合變化,這符合我們的預期。本年度,我們的毛利率約為33.4%,較去年增加約5個基點,符合我們的預期。
During the fourth quarter, operating expense as a percent of sales increased approximately 30 basis points, to 21.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Our operating expense performance was in line with our expectations. For the year, operating expenses were approximately 19.9% of sales, representing an increase of 75 basis points from fiscal 2023.
第四季度,營業費用佔銷售額的百分比與 2023 年第四季相比增加了約 30 個基點,達到 21.5%。我們的營業費用表現符合我們的預期。該年度,營業費用約佔銷售額的 19.9%,比 2023 財年增加 75 個基點。
Our operating margin for the fourth quarter was 11.3%, compared to 11.9% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Excluding intangible asset amortization in the quarter, our adjusted operating margin for the fourth quarter was 11.7%, compared to 12.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Our operating margin for the year was 13.5%, compared to 14.2% in 2023. Excluding intangible asset amortization, our adjusted operating margin for the year was 13.8%, compared to 14.3% in 2023.
我們第四季的營業利潤率為 11.3%,而 2023 年第四季為 11.9%。不包括本季的無形資產攤銷,我們第四季的調整後營業利潤率為 11.7%,而 2023 年第四季為 12.1%。我們今年的營業利益率為 13.5%,而 2023 年為 14.2%。不包括無形資產攤銷,我們今年的調整後營業利潤率為 13.8%,而 2023 年為 14.3%。
Interest and other expense for the fourth quarter increased by $150 million to $608 million due primarily to higher debt balances than a year ago. In the fourth quarter, our effective tax rate was 22.9%, and for the year was approximately 23.7%.
第四季的利息和其他支出增加了 1.5 億美元,達到 6.08 億美元,主要原因是債務餘額高於去年同期。第四季度,我們的有效稅率為 22.9%,全年有效稅率約為 23.7%。
Our diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $3.02, an increase of approximately 7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Diluted earnings per share for fiscal 2024 were $14.91, a decrease of 1.3% compared to fiscal 2023. Excluding intangible asset amortization, our adjusted diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $3.13, an increase of approximately 9.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted diluted earnings per share for fiscal 2024 were $15.24, essentially flat compared to fiscal 2023.
我們第四季的每股攤薄收益為 3.02 美元,較 2023 年第四季成長約 7%。2024財年每股攤薄收益為14.91美元,較2023財年下降1.3%。不包括無形資產攤銷,我們第四季的調整後每股攤薄收益為 3.13 美元,較 2023 年第四季成長約 9.4%。2024 財年調整後每股攤薄收益為 15.24 美元,與 2023 財年基本持平。
During the year, we opened 12 new stores, bringing our store count to 2,347 at the end of fiscal 2024. Retail selling square footage was approximately 243 million square feet, and total sales per retail square foot were approximately $600 in fiscal 2024. At the end of the quarter, merchandise inventories were $23.5 billion, up approximately $2.5 billion versus last year, and inventory turns were 4.7 times, up from 4.3 times last year.
本年度,我們開設了 12 家新店,截至 2024 財年末,我們的店數達到 2,347 家。零售銷售面積約 2.43 億平方英尺,2024 財年每平方英尺零售總銷售額約 600 美元。季度末,商品庫存為235億美元,較去年同期增加約25億美元,庫存週轉率為4.7次,較去年同期的4.3次有所上升。
Turning to capital allocation. During the fourth quarter, we invested approximately $1.1 billion back into our business in the form of capital expenditures. This brings total capital expenditures for fiscal 2024 to approximately $3.5 billion. And during the year, we paid approximately $8.9 billion in dividends to our shareholders. Today, we announced our Board of Directors increased our quarterly dividend by 2.2%, to $2.30 per share, which equates to an annual dividend of $9.20 per share.
轉向資本配置。第四季度,我們以資本支出的形式向我們的業務重新投資了約 11 億美元。這使得 2024 財年的總資本支出達到約 35 億美元。本年度,我們向股東支付了約 89 億美元的股利。今天,我們宣布董事會將季度股息提高 2.2%,至每股 2.30 美元,相當於年度股息每股 9.20 美元。
And finally, during fiscal 2024, we returned approximately $600 million to our shareholders in the form of share repurchases. Computed on the average of beginning and ending long-term debt and equity for the trailing 12 months, return on invested capital was approximately 31.3%, down from 36.7% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023.
最後,在 2024 財年,我們以股票回購的形式向股東返還了約 6 億美元。根據過去 12 個月期初和期末長期債務和股權的平均值計算,投資資本回報率約為 31.3%,低於 2023 財年第四季的 36.7%。
Now I will comment on our outlook for 2025. As you heard from Ted, we feel great about the investments we made in 2024, the progress we've made throughout the year, and the significant opportunities we have as we look ahead. And while there are signs that the home improvement market is on the way towards normalization, uncertainties still remain.
現在我將評論一下我們對 2025 年的展望。正如您從泰德那裡聽到的,我們對 2024 年所做的投資、全年取得的進展以及未來面臨的重大機會感到非常高興。儘管有跡象表明家居裝飾市場正在走向正常化,但不確定性仍然存在。
As we look ahead to fiscal 2025, we expect the underlying momentum in the business that we saw in the back half of 2024 to continue into 2025. However, we are not assuming any meaningful changes to the macroeconomic environment. We expect our consumer will remain healthy. We are not assuming a change in the rate environment, nor improvements in housing turnover. As a result, we would expect continued pressure on larger remodeling projects.
展望 2025 財年,我們預計 2024 年下半年看到的業務潛在動能將持續到 2025 年。然而,我們並不認為宏觀經濟環境會發生任何重大變化。我們預計我們的消費者將保持健康。我們並未假設利率環境會發生變化,房屋週轉率也不會改善。因此,我們預計大型改造工程將繼續面臨壓力。
Given these factors, our fiscal 2025 outlook is for total sales growth to outpace sales comp, with sales growth of approximately positive 2.8%, and comp sales growth of approximately positive 1%, compared to fiscal 2024. Total sales growth will benefit from the SRS acquisition, the new stores we opened in fiscal 2024 and plan to open in fiscal 2025. And for the year, we expect SRS to deliver mid-single-digit organic growth.
考慮到這些因素,我們對 2025 財年的展望是,與 2024 財年相比,總銷售額成長將超過銷售額成長,銷售額成長約為正 2.8%,銷售額成長約為正 1%。總銷售額的成長將受益於 SRS 的收購以及我們在 2024 財年開設的新店以及計劃在 2025 財年開設的新店。我們預計 SRS 今年將實現中等個位數的有機成長。
Our gross margin is expected to be approximately 33.4%, essentially flat compared to fiscal 2024. Further, we expect operating margin of approximately 13%, and adjusted operating margin of approximately 13.4%. This primarily reflects natural deleverage from sales and continued investments across the business as well as reflecting the mix impact from the SRS acquisition.
我們的毛利率預計約為 33.4%,與 2024 財年基本持平。此外,我們預期營業利潤率約為 13%,調整後營業利潤率約為 13.4%。這主要反映了銷售和整個業務的持續投資帶來的自然去槓桿,以及反映了 SRS 收購帶來的組合影響。
Our effective tax rate is targeted approximately 24.5%. We expect net interest expense of approximately $2.2 billion. We expect our diluted earnings per share to decline approximately 3%, compared to fiscal 2024 when comparing the 52 weeks, and fiscal 2025 to the 53 weeks in fiscal 2024. And we expect our adjusted diluted earnings per share to decline approximately 2% compared to fiscal 2024. On a 52-week basis, it would be essentially flat compared to fiscal 2024.
我們的有效稅率目標約為24.5%。我們預計淨利息支出約為 22 億美元。我們預計,與 2024 財年的 52 週相比,我們的每股攤薄收益將下降約 3%,而與 2024 財年的 53 週相比,2025 財年的每股攤薄收益將下降約 3%。我們預計調整後每股攤薄收益將與 2024 財年相比下降約 2%。以 52 週計算,與 2024 財年相比基本持平。
We plan to continue investing in our business with capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of sales for fiscal 2025. We believe that we will grow market share in any environment by strengthening our competitive position with our customers and delivering the best customer experience and home improvement.
我們計劃繼續投資於我們的業務,2025財年的資本支出約佔銷售額的2.5%。我們相信,透過加強我們與客戶的競爭地位並提供最佳的客戶體驗和家居裝修,我們將在任何環境下擴大市場份額。
Before opening the call for questions, we are pleased to announce that we will be holding an investor conference on December 9, 2025, in New York City. We will share more details in the future. But for now, please hold the date.
在開始提問之前,我們很高興地宣布,我們將於 2025 年 12 月 9 日在紐約市舉辦投資者會議。我們將來會分享更多細節。但現在請保留該日期。
Thank you for your participation in today's call. And Christine, we are now ready for questions.
感謝您參加今天的電話會議。克里斯汀,現在我們可以回答問題了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Laura Ng, Morgan Stanley.
(操作員指示) 摩根士丹利的 Laura Ng。
Simeon Gutman - Analyst
Simeon Gutman - Analyst
It's Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley. My first question is on the macro housing backdrop and the ingredients to a 1% comp. So existing home sales, look like they're set to grow mid-singles. And if that's the case, home improvement demand could arguably be a little stronger than maybe a 1% comp, or whatever assumption you're using. What's your take on that?
他是摩根士丹利的西緬·古特曼。我的第一個問題是關於宏觀住房背景以及 1% 複合年增長率的要素。因此,現有房屋銷售看起來將以中期增長。如果事實確實如此,那麼家居裝修需求可能會比 1% 的同比增幅或無論您使用的假設更高一些。您對此有何看法?
I know Richard said we're not assuming any improvement in turnover. Is there anything changed about -- any change about your forecast due to people staying in their homes longer and rates being stubborn?
我知道理查說我們不認為營業額會有任何改善。由於人們在家中停留的時間更長且利率持續居高不下,您的預測有什麼變化嗎?
Edward Decker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Edward Decker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Simeon, yes, at this point, while we've seen a little life in turnover in Q4, we're not expecting meaningful increase of that 40-year low. We've likely reached the bottom of housing turnover at about 3% of units. But we're not expecting a big rebound, nor significant increases in new housing starts.
西緬,是的,目前,雖然我們看到第四季度的營業額略有回升,但我們並不認為 40 年來的最低水平會顯著增長。我們可能已經觸及住房週轉率的底部,約為 3%。但我們並不預期會大幅反彈,新屋開工數量也不會大幅增加。
However, if you just step back, I mean, if you look at our customer, they remain very healthy. We look at our customer today. We think about $110,000 average income. Those incomes have been growing. We've talked about the increase in home equity values, up 50% since the end of '19 and then wealth effect through the stock market and other investments. So our customer is very healthy.
然而,如果你退一步來看,我的意思是,如果你看看我們的客戶,他們仍然非常健康。今天我們來看看我們的客戶。我們考慮平均收入為110,000美元。這些收入一直在增長。我們討論過房屋淨值的成長,自 19 年底以來上漲了 50%,然後透過股票市場和其他投資產生了財富效應。所以我們的客戶非常健康。
And as you say, if they're staying in their homes longer, they will take on larger remodeling projects as opposed to moving, those that are locked into lower interest rates or just not wanting to get mortgages with the higher rates. But we're not anticipating a large decrease in mortgage rates. It will be more issue of consumers getting used to these higher rates.
正如你所說,如果他們在自己的家中居住的時間更長,他們會進行更大規模的改造工程而不是搬家,這些人被鎖定在較低的利率中,或者只是不想獲得較高利率的抵押貸款。但我們預計抵押貸款利率不會大幅下降。更重要的問題是消費者要如何適應更高的利率。
And to take on a larger project, it's usually financed. And that financing is through HELOCs. And we've started to see a little increase in each of cash-out refis, as well as draws on HELOCs. But there's literally trillions of dollars of equity built up in the US housing.
為了承接更大的項目,通常需要資金。而融資是透過 HELOC 進行的。我們已經開始看到現金再融資和房屋淨值信貸 (HELOC) 提款略有增加。但美國房地產確實累積了數兆美元的資產。
And as homes continue to age and people are staying in those homes and realize that we're highly unlikely to see the low interest rates we saw over the past two, three years, that they'll eventually tap that equity and do the larger remodeling projects. We're just not sure that turn comes in 2025 at a dramatically accelerated pace.
隨著房屋不斷老化,人們繼續住在這些房屋裡,並意識到我們極不可能看到過去兩三年那樣的低利率,他們最終會利用這些資產進行更大規模的改造項目。我們只是不確定這種轉變是否會在 2025 年以顯著加快的速度到來。
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And to follow up on the 1%, just to explain that, Simeon. Obviously, this is a triangulation. We look at exit run rates of the business and as we said, keep in mind that Q4, while certainly showing signs of momentum growing from Q3, still had some benefits from hurricanes that won't fully repeat in 2025. So a slight dampening of the run rate and then the assumption of continued pressure on larger projects. With the shape of the year increasing slightly through the year, which also includes the inclusion of SRS in our comp, you'll see them in our comp for the last seven months of the year.
為了跟進 1%,西緬,我來解釋一下。顯然,這是一個三角測量。我們關注的是業務的退出運行率,正如我們所說的那樣,請記住,雖然第四季度明顯顯示出從第三季度開始增長的勢頭,但仍然受益於颶風,而這種颶風在 2025 年不會完全重演。因此,運行率會略有下降,然後假設大型專案會繼續面臨壓力。隨著全年情況略有好轉,其中還包括將 SRS 納入我們的公司,您將在今年最後七個月的公司業績中看到它們。
Simeon Gutman - Analyst
Simeon Gutman - Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. The follow-up, if comps do end up being a little stronger than one, does each point flow through at this 10 points of leverage to the margin? Or is there a scenario whether it's better DIY, more Pro, more complex project? Or do you spend more? Is there a mix shift that could alter that relationship above 1?
好的。這很有幫助。後續問題是,如果可比股票最終確實比 1 強一點,那麼每個點是否都會以這 10 個點的槓桿作用流向利潤率?或者是否有這樣的情況:是更好的 DIY,更專業,還是更複雜的專案?或者說你花了多一點?是否存在混合轉變可以使該關係變為 1 以上?
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
No. I think, look, the 10 basis points is a good rough estimate of leverage from that point. You're not going to have meaningful shifts in mix -- even if mix shifts, you're not going to have meaningful -- meaningful differences in that leverage number.
不。我認為,從那時起,10 個基點是對槓桿率的一個很好的粗略估計。你不會在組合上發生有意義的變化——即使組合發生了變化,你也不會在槓桿數字上產生有意義的差異。
Operator
Operator
Christopher Horvers, JPMorgan.
摩根大通的克里斯多福‧霍弗斯 (Christopher Horvers)。
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
I wanted to go at a similar kind of question maybe on a different angle. Appliances were up, paint was up. Was that volume driven? And to what extent do you think the category was up versus Home Depot continuing to gain share? Because as you look forward, the replacement cycle dynamics should get better from 4Q levels. You'll be five years out.
我想從不同的角度來探討類似的問題。家用電器價格上漲,油漆價格也上漲。那是音量驅動的嗎?您認為該類別與家得寶 (Home Depot) 相比,市場份額持續成長的程度如何?因為展望未來,更換週期動態應該會從第四季的水平變得更好。你將會離開五年。
Ted, you've talked about in the past, every wall was painted in the US in 2020, but we're getting further from there. So doesn't that replacement part of the business further accelerate? And curious if you you're going to say like, well, X percent of the business is replacement versus Y percent, is more like big ticket remodel, which would -- we expect to continue to be an anchor?
泰德,你以前談過,2020 年美國的每面牆都會被粉刷一新,但我們距離那個目標還很遙遠。那麼,替換部分的業務不是會進一步加速嗎?我很好奇,您是否會說,嗯,X% 的業務是替換,而 Y% 更像是大型改造,我們預計哪個會繼續成為支柱?
Edward Decker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Edward Decker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Chris. Let me make a broad comment, and Billy can give some detail on particular categories. Look if we just step back and look at this quarter, we're happy with it, right. Sales exceeded our expectations and we're happy with positive comps, obviously, for the first time in two years, and particularly happy with positive transaction comps which has been negative for over three years. And as you say, the business has strengthened across many categories in many geographies. In fact, we haven't seen this broader base performance in over two years and maybe even closer to three years.
當然,克里斯。讓我做一個廣泛的評論,Billy 可以對特定類別提供一些細節。如果我們回顧一下這個季度,我們會發現我們對此感到滿意,對吧。銷售額超出了我們的預期,我們對兩年來的首次正增長感到滿意,尤其對交易額的正增長感到滿意,而三年多來交易額一直為負增長。正如您所說,我們的業務在許多地區的許多類別中都得到了加強。事實上,我們已經兩年多甚至接近三年沒有看到這種更廣泛的基礎表現了。
And if you go back, Chris, to your comment on COVID, I'd say that shift of spending back to services post COVID in the pull forward of demand during the pandemic, those have largely played out. There may be a category here and there, but I'd say that PCE shift in home improvement pull forward have largely played out. And engagement in repair and smaller updates, and decor-oriented updates, is strengthening and Billy can give some detail on the categories.
克里斯,如果您回顧一下您對 COVID 的評論,我想說,在疫情期間需求提前推動下,支出轉移到服務業的趨勢已基本實現。可能這裡或那裡都有一個類別,但我想說,個人消費支出 (PCE) 在家居裝修方面的轉變已經基本發揮出來了。並且,對修復和小規模更新以及裝飾導向更新的參與正在加強,Billy 可以詳細介紹這些類別。
William Bastek - Executive Vice President - Merchandising
William Bastek - Executive Vice President - Merchandising
Yes. Listen, as Ted mentioned, the broader-based performance I talked about the 10 of the 16 departments that posted positive comps. We had an outperformed, Chris, as you mentioned, in appliances in our gift center business, which we had record sales candidly in that -- in those areas across the store. So we had a healthy balance of transactions and unit performance, which to Ted's point, we hadn't seen in a while. With that said, still the pressure we know in finance projects.
是的。聽著,正如泰德所提到的,我談到了 16 個部門中 10 個部門的更廣泛的表現,這些部門的業績表現積極。克里斯,正如您所說,我們的禮品中心業務中的家電產品表現出色,坦率地說,我們的禮品中心業務在整個商店的這些區域中都創下了銷售記錄。因此,我們在交易和單位績效之間實現了健康的平衡,正如泰德所說,我們已經有一段時間沒有看到這種情況了。話雖如此,我們知道金融業仍有壓力。
We had great performance across many of our Pro-heavy categories, I mentioned gypsum and decking, concrete fencing and while there was some hurricane impact in there, we're pretty pleased with the broad base of performance not only across the merchandising departments, but certainly across the country. But there's just no denying the deferral that we're still seeing. We are pleased with the pull forward that we think is largely behind us at this point from a go-forward standpoint. So all those things bode well, but still the pressure in some of the more finance projects, we're still continuing to see that exist.
我們在許多專業重型類別中都表現出色,我提到了石膏和地板、混凝土圍欄,雖然這些類別受到了颶風的影響,但我們對不僅在商品銷售部門,而且在全國範圍內的廣泛表現感到非常滿意。但無可否認,我們仍在看到延期的情況。我們對這種向前邁進感到高興,我們認為從前進的角度來看,目前這種向前邁進基本上已經過去了。因此,所有這些都是好兆頭,但是,我們仍然看到一些金融項目仍然存在壓力。
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Christopher Horvers - Analyst
Got it. And then, Richard, can you talk about the monthly US comps adjusting for the for the holiday shift? There's been a lot of questions, I think, over the past five, six weeks on what's going on with the consumer. You saw F&D talk about a slowdown relative to what they saw in the fourth quarter, and they talked about weather. So can you talk about, do you think that the weather had any influence on the business in January? And any comment on exit rate?
知道了。然後,理查德,您能談談根據假期班次進行調整的美國月度業績嗎?我認為,過去五、六週以來,人們對消費者的情況提出了許多疑問。您會看到 F&D 談論相對於第四季度而言的經濟放緩,並且他們還談論了天氣。那麼您能談談,您認為天氣對一月份的業務有影響嗎?對於退出率有什麼評論嗎?
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I think that -- so the monthly progression was absolutely influenced by holiday shifts, again, to the benefit of December to the detriment of November and January. But no doubt, weather was horrible in January. We've had two years in a row of tough January, but this one was particularly tough. And so that's why we don't read a tremendous amount into it when we think about exit run rate, but no doubt, weather had an impact.
我認為——月度進展絕對受到假期變化的影響,再次,對 12 月有利,而對 11 月和 1 月不利。但毫無疑問,一月的天氣很糟。我們已經連續兩年經歷了艱難的一月,但今年尤其艱難。所以這就是為什麼我們在考慮退出運行率時不會對此進行過多的解讀,但毫無疑問,天氣確實產生了影響。
Operator
Operator
Michael Lasser, UBS.
瑞銀的麥可‧拉瑟 (Michael Lasser)。
Michael Lasser - Analyst
Michael Lasser - Analyst
What market share assumption have you embedded into your 2025 outlook? And why wouldn't it be reasonable for us to assume that Home Depot's market share gains still accelerate from here and be above where they've been historically in light of you now having SRS as well as many more capabilities given the investments that have been made over the last several years. Is that a sign that you think your DIY market share is starting to peak and that could have an impact on the overall share gains for the enterprise?
您在 2025 年展望中嵌入了哪些市佔率假設?鑑於家得寶現在擁有 SRS 以及過去幾年進行的投資所帶來的更多功能,我們為什麼不能合理地假設家得寶的市場份額增長仍將從現在開始加速並超過歷史水平。您認為這是否表明您的 DIY 市場份額開始達到頂峰,並可能對企業的整體份額成長產生影響?
Edward Decker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Edward Decker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Michael, thanks for the question. As we look at the overall market for 2025, we see it overall being flat, maybe up slightly. Those expectations have come down over the last several months. And R+1, as Richard explained, is a continuation of some of the underlying strength in the business and our initiatives that we absolutely are gaining incremental sales for us. So that's why we peg our comp growth at 1%.
邁克爾,謝謝你的提問。展望 2025 年的整體市場,我們發現整體市場將保持平穩,甚至略有上漲。過去幾個月裡,這些預期已經下降。正如理查德所解釋的那樣,R+1 是我們業務和計劃中一些潛在優勢的延續,這些優勢和舉措絕對會為我們帶來增量銷售。這就是我們將同店銷售額成長率設定為 1% 的原因。
Now if you look at the combination of what's driving our share gains for both Pro and consumer in the core, it is all the capabilities that we're putting in the marketplace. And we talked a lot about interconnected in all the investments we've made on the interconnected journey and then certainly all the investments on our Pro ecosystem. And I'll have Jordan spend a few minutes more on what we're doing on interconnected.
現在,如果您看一下推動我們在專業版和核心消費者領域份額成長的因素,就會發現是我們向市場推出的所有功能。我們討論了很多有關互聯的內容,包括我們在互聯旅程中所做的所有投資,當然還有我們在 Pro 生態系統上的所有投資。我會讓喬丹再花幾分鐘介紹一下我們在互聯互通方面所做的工作。
And then you add what we're doing with SRS. SRS will grow faster than the core and we believe they're taking share in each of their three verticals. So we're very pleased with what SRS is doing. So all that with our new stores, which are starting to add some meaningful dollars to our growth gets us to the 1% comp and 2.8% overall growth in a flat market. So we wouldn't say our share has peaked by any means in DIY or Pro.
然後加入我們使用 SRS 所做的事情。SRS 的成長速度將快於核心業務,我們相信他們將在三個垂直領域中佔有一席之地。因此我們對 SRS 所做的事情感到非常滿意。因此,我們的新店開始為我們的成長帶來一些有意義的收益,使我們在平穩的市場中實現了 1% 的年成長率和 2.8% 的整體成長率。因此,我們不會說我們的份額在 DIY 或 Pro 領域已經達到頂峰。
And then Jordan, if you chat about what we're doing to drive share in Pro and consumer with interconnect.
然後喬丹,如果你聊聊我們正在做什麼來透過互聯來推動專業版和消費者版的份額。
Jordan Broggi - Executive Vice President â Customer Experience and President â Online
Jordan Broggi - Executive Vice President â Customer Experience and President â Online
Sure. So I mean we -- Billy shared the excitement we have had on dot-com sales performance, and that's really across both the consumer and the Pro, both of them up healthily online. And it's been a combination of investments that we've made that have helped deliver that. From the site experience and really making that journey so much better from a from a browse and search perspective and finding the right product to the fulfillment Billy mentioned that we've had the fastest delivery speeds in the history of our company.
當然。所以我的意思是我們——Billy 分享了我們對網路銷售業績的興奮之情,這實際上涉及消費者和專業人士,他們都在網路上健康發展。我們所做的多項投資幫助實現了這一目標。從網站體驗來看,從瀏覽和搜尋的角度來看,確實使這趟旅程變得更好,並找到合適的產品來實現,Billy 提到,我們擁有公司歷史上最快的交付速度。
Same-day delivery, next-day delivery, whether that's concrete and lumber or whether that's a light bulb or power tool, it's been really fast. And all of those investments have come together to really drive an improvement in conversion rate on the site. And then what we see is an increased engagement across channel with more purchases that come in store. So we're really excited about the momentum there and see the investments that we've made really paying off.
當天送達、隔天送達,無論是混凝土和木材,還是燈泡或電動工具,速度都非常快。所有這些投資共同真正推動了網站轉換率的提高。然後我們看到的是跨通路的參與度增加,商店中的購買量也增加。因此,我們對那裡的發展勢頭感到非常興奮,並看到我們所做的投資確實獲得了回報。
Michael Lasser - Analyst
Michael Lasser - Analyst
My follow-up question is on what's been happening as of late. There's been a lot of focus on the impact that the government efficiency measures, and/or immigration policy implementation could have on the US consumer. How did you factor that in those considerations into the guidance?
我的後續問題是有關最近發生的事情。人們非常關注政府效率措施和/或移民政策實施對美國消費者的影響。您是如何將這些考慮納入指導中的?
And while you just indicated that weather was really the underlying cause of some of the results in January, are you seeing any evidence that these factors are having an impact on the business? There's been talk about housing inventory in the Mid-Atlantic starting to creep higher. So anything you can provide that would be very helpful.
您剛剛指出天氣確實是導致一月份部分業績下滑的根本原因,但是您是否看到任何證據表明這些因素正在對業務產生影響?有傳言稱大西洋中部的房屋庫存開始上升。因此,您提供的任何幫助都將非常有幫助。
Edward Decker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Edward Decker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Michael, I don't think we've seen anything specifically. If you tick through some of the things you mentioned in some I'd add, tax policy would be one of the most important to Home Depot is a full taxpayer. So we'd be very pleased that the corporate rate stays at 21%. Tariffs is obviously a lot of discussion on what rates would be and what countries would be impacted and what categories of goods.
邁克爾,我認為我們沒有看到任何特別的東西。如果您仔細考慮您提到的一些事情,我想補充一點,稅收政策對家得寶作為納稅人來說是最重要的政策之一。因此,我們很高興企業稅率維持在 21%。顯然,關稅問題引發了許多討論,包括稅率是多少、哪些國家會受到影響、哪些類別的商品會受到影響。
We've been through that before, and I think we have the best team to manage through any tariff environment, which would impact the industry broadly. I'd say our diversification efforts out of certain concentrations in countries has been quite good over the last six or seven years. You mentioned immigration. We've talked about having a shortage of skilled trades folks in this country for some time. We believe it's like 400,000-odd trades, folks short, and not sure how that number would change with any meaningful change in immigration.
我們以前經歷過這種情況,我認為我們擁有最好的團隊來應對任何可能對整個行業產生廣泛影響的關稅環境。我想說,過去六、七年來,我們在某些國家集中所進行的多元化努力取得了相當好的成績。您提到了移民問題。我們一直在談論這個國家缺乏技術工人的問題。我們認為這大概有 40 多萬筆交易,人們做空,而且不確定隨著移民政策發生任何重大變化,這個數字會發生怎樣的變化。
And then specifically to the government efficiency in Mid-Atlantic, no, we've not seen anything there.
然後具體到大西洋中部的政府效率,沒有,我們在那裡沒有看到任何事情。
Operator
Operator
Scot Ciccarelli, Truist.
斯科特·西卡雷利(Scot Ciccarelli),Truist。
Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst
Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst
Ann talked about $1 billion of incremental sales in the 17 markets where you start to build out complex grow capabilities. How do you actually measure that? And then what kind of ramp would you expect in those markets in '25 as you continue to phase in order management, credit expansion, et cetera, some of the other capabilities that you've discussed?
安 (Ann) 談到了在 17 個市場中開始建立複雜成長能力的 10 億美元增量銷售額。您實際上如何測量這一點?那麼,隨著您繼續分階段實施訂單管理、信貸擴張等等您已經討論過的其他一些功能,您預計這些市場在 25 年將會出現什麼樣的成長?
Ann-Marie Campbell - Senior Executive Vice President
Ann-Marie Campbell - Senior Executive Vice President
Thank you, Scot. Yes, as we mentioned that we're incredibly pleased with what we've seen so far, we're generating $1 billion and growing. So that's been fantastic. And as we mentioned as well, it's geared across all participation. The way we measure that is the incremental sales in the 17 markets versus what we see in the top 40 markets. So the $1 billion of annualized sales is that in those 17 markets, we have been outperforming other top 40 markets.
謝謝你,斯科特。是的,正如我們所提到的,我們對目前所看到的情況感到非常滿意,我們已經創造了 10 億美元的收入,而且還在成長。這真是太棒了。正如我們所提到的,它面向所有參與者。我們衡量的方式是將 17 個市場的增量銷售額與前 40 個市場的銷售額進行比較。因此,10 億美元的年銷售額意味著,在這 17 個市場中,我們的表現一直優於其他前 40 個市場。
And so when you think about 2025, we're focused on really maturing the capabilities in these 17 markets, which is really important. Not only maturing the existing capabilities, but really, really rolling out new capabilities as well. So whether it be delivery, expanding our sales force, those are key things that we'll continue to focus on. As well as new capabilities as we talk about trade credit, order management, account management. Those are opportunities that we have to continue to grow in 2025.
因此,當你想到 2025 年時,我們將專注於真正完善這 17 個市場的能力,這非常重要。不僅要完善現有的能力,而且要真正推出新的能力。因此,無論是交付還是擴大銷售隊伍,這些都是我們將繼續關注的關鍵事項。以及我們談論的貿易信用、訂單管理、帳戶管理等新功能。這些都是我們在 2025 年繼續發展的機會。
And Ted talked about SRS. And there's also an opportunity for us to really drive cross-selling opportunities across the SRS portfolio. Last but not least, we have more FDCs in the pipeline as well. We have our three FDCs under construction. We have more in the pipeline. So we're incredibly pleased with what we've seen in 2024. When we think about the 17 markets across our company, and compared to the top 40 markets, but more importantly, what we've seen with the Pro ecosystem across the country as well and making sure that we're doubling down on the opportunities that we see.
泰德 (Ted) 談到了 SRS。這也為我們提供了真正推動 SRS 產品組合交叉銷售機會的機會。最後但同樣重要的一點是,我們還有更多的 FDC 正在籌備中。我們有三個 FDC 正在建設中。我們還有更多的計劃正在籌備中。因此,我們對 2024 年的業績感到非常滿意。當我們考慮公司範圍內的 17 個市場,並與前 40 個市場進行比較時,但更重要的是,我們也看到了全國各地的 Pro 生態系統,並確保我們加倍抓住我們看到的機會。
Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst
Scot Ciccarelli - Analyst
Appreciate that. What's the biggest sticking point as you roll this out? Is it building the specialty sales force? Is it the recognition from your complex Pros, et cetera? Like what's the toughest piece that you've kind of learned that you'd have to -- what's your top the hurdle you have to clear?
非常感謝。在推行這項計畫時,最大的癥結是什麼?是在建立專業銷售團隊嗎?這是來自您複雜的專業人士等等的認可嗎?例如,您所學到的最困難的部分是什麼——您必須克服的最大障礙是什麼?
Ann-Marie Campbell - Senior Executive Vice President
Ann-Marie Campbell - Senior Executive Vice President
Yes, Scot, this is what we continue to find. This is an entire ecosystem, right? So it's not just one component of the ecosystem, right? When we talk about the outside sales, or we talk about delivery, or we talk about order management and account management, it's all of those things working in concert.
是的,斯科特,這就是我們不斷發現的。這是一個完整的生態系統,對嗎?所以它不僅僅是生態系統的一個組成部分,對嗎?當我們談論外部銷售、交付、訂單管理和帳戶管理時,所有這些事情都是協同工作的。
So what is always kind of difficult is as you roll these capabilities out and there are different levels of maturity, our focus is to refine and really perfect what we're seeing. And that takes time in a market, especially when you're building relationships. We don't want to create new relationships with our new capabilities with our Pros and that have big failure points.
因此,總是有點困難的是,當你推出這些功能並且存在不同的成熟度等級時,我們的重點是改進和真正完善我們所看到的內容。在市場中這需要時間,特別是當你建立關係的時候。我們不想與我們的專業人士建立具有新能力且存在重大失敗點的新關係。
So the difficult part is making sure that we're doubling down and moving at a speed that drives outcome, but at the same time, as we focus on perfecting within the market. So it's incredibly complex. It is really important that we do this right. And in 2024, we saw some really, really great progress, and that's what makes us excited about what we will do in 2025 and beyond.
因此,困難的部分是確保我們加倍努力並以能夠取得成果的速度前進,但同時,我們要專注於完善市場。所以它非常複雜。正確地做這件事確實非常重要。2024 年,我們看到了一些非常非常棒的進展,這讓我們對 2025 年及以後的事情感到興奮。
Operator
Operator
Karen Short, Melius Research.
凱倫·肖特(Karen Short),Melius Research。
Karen Short - Analyst
Karen Short - Analyst
So I had one question regarding guidance, and another totally related. So actually intangible in terms of operating margin guidance, so should we look at that as the right way to think about the relationship between sales growth and operating margin growth, i.e., excluding intangible impact from SRS on your guidance?
所以我有一個關於指導的問題,還有另一個完全相關的問題。因此,就營業利潤率指引而言,實際上是無形的,那麼我們是否應該將其視為思考銷售成長和營業利潤率成長之間關係的正確方式,即將 SRS 對您的指引的無形影響排除在外?
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, Karen. We believe that removing the non-cash amortization expense related to the amortization of intangible assets is the best way to look at our underlying operating margin. And so that's where we would -- we have guided for the last couple of quarters and will continue to guide on the basis of moving forward.
是的,凱倫。我們認為,消除與無形資產攤銷相關的非現金攤銷費用是查看我們的基礎營業利潤率的最佳方式。這就是我們過去幾個季度的指導方針,並將繼續在未來的基礎上繼續指導。
Karen Short - Analyst
Karen Short - Analyst
So how should we --
那我們應該如何--
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And Karen by the way, it includes -- we -- the operating margin is adjusted for all non-cash amortization expense at The Home Depot, not just that related to SRS.
順便說一下,凱倫,它包括——我們——營業利潤率是根據家得寶的所有非現金攤銷費用進行調整的,而不僅僅是與 SRS 相關的費用。
Karen Short - Analyst
Karen Short - Analyst
Okay. So how should we think about the relationship on total sales growth versus operating margin -- or operating profit growth on the way you define it?
好的。那麼,我們該如何看待總銷售額成長與營業利潤率(或依照您所定義的營業利潤成長)之間的關係?
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Leverage -- deleverage is essentially the same when you're looking at adjusted operating margin versus GAAP operating margin. So there's no change needed in the way that we've talked about leverage or deleverage in the past.
槓桿率-當您查看調整後的營業利潤率與 GAAP 營業利潤率時,去槓桿率本質上是相同的。因此,我們過去談論槓桿率或去槓桿的方式不需要改變。
Karen Short - Analyst
Karen Short - Analyst
Okay. And is 2.5% of sales, the rate -- run rate to think about on CapEx going forward?
好的。銷售額的 2.5% 是不是未來資本支出的運作率呢?
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
So historically, we've said 2% is sort of a rough expectation. We have increased that percentage really to reflect two things. Number one, obviously, we're we are happy with the investments we've made. They are generating exceptional returns, and so we're leaning into those investments.
所以從歷史上看,我們認為 2% 是一個粗略的預期。我們增加該百分比實際上是為了反映兩件事。首先,顯然我們對所做的投資感到滿意。它們正在產生卓越的回報,因此我們傾向於這些投資。
But second, a big part of that investment portfolio are our new stores. And it's worth calling our new store program out. In 2023, we announced we would build 80 stores over five years, including the year 2023. We are 25 stores into that program. So far, the results have been fantastic.
其次,投資組合中很大一部分是我們的新店。值得一提的是,我們的新商店計劃。2023 年,我們宣布將在五年內(包括 2023 年)開設 80 家門市。我們已有 25 家商店參與了此計劃。到目前為止,結果非常棒。
We're tracking ahead of expectations. So we are going to continue, and we will complete that program. This year will be the third year of the program. We'll complete it by year five, which is 2027. So that 2.5% of sales is reflective of that new store program as well as leaning into investments that are working.
我們正在超越預期。因此我們會繼續並完成這個計劃。今年將是該計劃實施的第三年。我們將在第五年,也就是 2027 年完成它。因此,2.5% 的銷售額既反映了新店計劃,也反映了有效的投資。
Operator
Operator
Steven Zaccone, Citi.
花旗銀行的史蒂文‧扎科內 (Steven Zaccone)
Steven Zaccone - Analyst
Steven Zaccone - Analyst
I actually want to follow up on Karen's question there and maybe dig into the SRS contribution a bit more. Can you help us understand how that's impacting the bottom line for 2025? As you give the organic mid-single-digit growth for the business, maybe how is the bottom line tracking versus expectations?
我實際上想跟進 Karen 的問題,並可能更深入地研究 SRS 的貢獻。您能幫助我們了解這對 2025 年的底線有何影響嗎?當您給出業務的有機中等個位數成長時,那麼底線追蹤與預期相比如何?
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Dollars to our top line from seven months of ownership. They hit that on the button, and we feel great about their P&L top to bottom. And so from -- as we discussed during the deal, we expected this to be cash accretive within the first year of ownership. We'll be coming up on that first year anniversary soon. They already contributed to top and bottom line. And so we feel really happy about that.
透過七個月的持股,我們獲得了豐厚的利潤。他們實現了這個目標,我們對他們的損益表從上到下都感到非常滿意。正如我們在交易過程中所討論的那樣,我們預計這將在所有權的第一年內實現現金增值。我們很快就要迎來一週年紀念日了。他們已經為營收和淨利潤做出了貢獻。因此我們對此感到非常高興。
Now just to be clear to make sure that everyone understands this. Obviously, we report our results on a consolidated basis. If you think about the pro forma impact of SRS, the reflection of SRS and its mix impact on The Home Depot, there's about a 40-basis-point full-year mix impact to The Home Depot. And so think about Home Depot in total being impacted by about 40 basis points, but that's a mix effect. And we'll take that all day long. They are leaders in their spaces. They're performing exceptionally well, and we're happy with that.
現在只是為了明確確保每個人都理解這一點。顯然,我們以合併方式報告我們的結果。如果您考慮 SRS 的預期影響、SRS 的反映及其對家得寶的組合影響,那麼對家得寶的全年組合影響約為 40 個基點。因此,想想家得寶 (Home Depot) 總體受到約 40 個基點的影響,但這是一種混合效應。我們會花一整天的時間處理這件事。他們都是各自領域的領導者。他們的表現非常出色,我們對此感到非常高興。
Steven Zaccone - Analyst
Steven Zaccone - Analyst
Okay. The follow-up question I had was just on maybe the pricing environment. In the past, I think you've talked about prices kind of settling. Do you feel like we're at a point now where we should see sort of a natural return to a normal environment for pricing? And then how does the potential for tariffs kind of fit into that view?
好的。我的後續問題可能只是關於定價環境。過去,我認為您曾談論過價格穩定問題。您是否覺得我們現在應該看到價格自然回歸正常的階段?那麼關稅的可能性又如何與這種觀點相符呢?
William Bastek - Executive Vice President - Merchandising
William Bastek - Executive Vice President - Merchandising
Well, thanks, Steven. It's Billy. Listen, as it relates to just the general pricing environment, and then I'll talk for a minute about tariffs. I mean, we are in a very rational market just by definition. And prices, as we've mentioned on the last couple of calls, really have settled to your point. And the promotional activity is the same as it's been kind of pre-COVID as well. So no differences in that. And as I mentioned, again, the last couple of quarters, pricing is settled into the market accordingly.
好吧,謝謝你,史蒂文。是比利。聽著,因為它只與一般的定價環境有關,然後我會談一點關稅問題。我的意思是,從定義上來說,我們處於一個非常理性的市場。正如我們在最近幾次通話中提到的那樣,價格確實已經穩定下來。促銷活動也與疫情前相同。因此這方面沒有差別。正如我所提到的,過去幾個季度,定價已經根據市場情況確定。
As it relates to tariffs, and we've spoken a little bit about it this morning. I mean, listen, we've been through this before. We'll continue to assess just how these impact our business from a go-forward standpoint. We've been focused on diversifying sourcing for several years. So we'll continue to assess that going forward. But our number one job in merchandising is to be the customer's advocate for value. We have great, great vendor relationships. And with our scale, we feel that we're as well or better positioned than anyone in the marketplace to navigate the environment going forward.
至於關稅問題,我們今天早上已經談了一些。我的意思是,聽著,我們以前經歷過這樣的事情。我們將繼續從未來的角度評估這些因素對我們的業務有何影響。多年來,我們一直致力於採購多元化。因此,我們將繼續評估這項進展。但我們在商品銷售中的首要任務是成為顧客的價值代言人。我們與供應商之間有著非常良好的關係。憑藉我們的規模,我們覺得我們比市場上的任何人都更有能力駕馭未來的環境。
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
And actually, I want to go back one question and just follow up on Steven's question. So Steven, just to put a year-over-year comparison together for you and talk about how SRS impacts year over year from an operating margin perspective. So as you see in our guidance, we're guiding to a 13.4% adjusted operating margin from 13.8%. That's a 40-basis-point decrease.
實際上,我想回顧一個問題並跟進史蒂文的問題。所以史蒂文,我只是想給你做一個同比比較,並從營業利潤率的角度談談 SRS 對同比的影響。因此,正如您在我們的指引中看到的,我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將從 13.8% 上升至 13.4%。這意味著下降了 40 個基點。
Here's how that 40 basis points breaks down. It's coincidental to the pro forma impact, but the year-over-year is different. So that 40 reflects 20 basis points of natural deleverage. And recall, we think this business levers about a 3% comp. So at a 1% comp, we're getting about 2 comp points of deleverage. So 2 times about 10 basis points per is 20 basis points.
40 個基點的具體分解如下。這與預期的影響是巧合,但同比變化有所不同。因此40反映了20個基點的自然去槓桿。回想一下,我們認為這項業務的槓桿率約為 3%。因此,在 1% 的複合年增長率下,我們將獲得約 2 個複合點的去槓桿率。因此,每 10 個基點乘以 2 就是 20 個基點。
Then the inclusion of 12 months of ownership of SRS compared to seven months of ownership is reflected in 15 basis points of mix shift. So you've got about a 15 basis point impact of that year-over-year comparison of 12 months versus seven months.
那麼,12 個月的 SRS 所有權與 7 個月的所有權相比,反映了 15 個基點的組合轉變。因此,12 個月與 7 個月的同比變化影響約為 15 個基點。
And then finally, the comparison versus a 53-week year also shifts margin by 5 basis points. So you've got 20 bps from natural deleverage. You've got 15 from SRS impact, and you've got 5 from the 53rd week comparison. Within that, I think it's worth saying, look, we are leaning into investments. We're paying for those investments through productivity. And so that's also within that operating margin guidance.
最後,與 53 週的年份相比,利潤率也會變動 5 個基點。因此,你從自然去槓桿中獲得了 20 個基點。您從 SRS 影響中獲得了 15 個,從第 53 週比較中獲得了 5 個。在這其中,我認為值得一說的是,看,我們正傾向於投資。我們透過生產力來支付這些投資。因此這也符合營業利益率指引範圍。
There's productivity inside as well as leaning into investments, and I hope that makes it a little bit more clear.
這裡面既有生產力,也有傾向於投資,我希望這能讓你更清楚地了解一點。
Operator
Operator
Seth Sigman, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的塞思‧西格曼。
Seth Sigman - Analyst
Seth Sigman - Analyst
I do want to follow up on that last point around the flow through. If you step back and look at your sales over the last several years, I think since 2019, sales were up maybe 45%. SG&A is actually up a similar percent. Along the way, there have been investments and plenty of cost pressures.
我確實想跟進有關流程的最後一點。如果回顧過去幾年的銷售情況,我認為自 2019 年以來,銷售額可能成長了 45%。銷售、一般及行政開支實際上也上漲了相似的百分比。在這過程中,我們不斷進行投資,也面臨巨大的成本壓力。
I guess the real question is, to the extent that comps start to improve here, they progress throughout 2025, are we at that point where sales should grow faster than expenses, and you can really start to see that flow through come through?
我想真正的問題是,就目前可比銷售額開始改善的程度而言,它們將在 2025 年不斷進步,我們是否已經到了銷售額增長速度快於支出的地步,並且您真的可以開始看到這種流量流入嗎?
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Seth, I would point you back to our investor conference back in 2023, right. Once this market normalizes, we would expect a base case of 3% to 4% top-line growth. We would expect -- and within that, we expect flat gross margin as kind of a base expectation. And then we do expect operating expense leverage.
塞斯,我想讓你回顧我們 2023 年的投資人會議,對吧。一旦該市場恢復正常,我們預計營收成長率將基本為 3% 至 4%。我們預期-在此範圍內,我們預期毛利率將持平,這是一種基本預期。然後我們確實預期營業費用槓桿。
And so that takes you to the earnings per share expectation of mid- to high single-digit growth, once our market has normalized and once we are back to that level of sales growth. And that view hasn't changed since 2023.
因此,一旦我們的市場恢復正常,並且我們回到銷售成長水平,每股收益預期將達到中高個位數成長。自 2023 年以來,這種觀點仍未改變。
Seth Sigman - Analyst
Seth Sigman - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then just on that point around the gross margin. You are guiding flat in '25. You still have some SRS dilution wrapping into this year. Can you talk about some of the underlying assumptions for core Home Depot and speak to the offsets that would be helping mitigate that SRS dilution?
好的。偉大的。然後就毛利率這個問題來說。您在 '25 年指導平局。今年仍會有一些 SRS 稀釋。您能否談談核心家得寶的一些基本假設,並談談有助於減輕 SRS 稀釋的抵消措施?
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Richard McPhail - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
I pointed to -- you're right about that. We still have a little bit of a lap, and so there's pressure from SRS mix. Just two great call-outs. Number one, our outstanding supply chain and merchandising teams finding productivity. And I could go on and on about it, but the benefits we've seen in supply chain productivity alone are really encouraging.
我指出——你說得對。我們還有一點點圈,所以有來自 SRS 混合的壓力。只需兩次精彩的呼喚。首先,我們優秀的供應鏈和銷售團隊正在提高生產力。我可以繼續談論這個問題,但我們僅在供應鏈生產力方面所看到的好處就已非常令人鼓舞。
And we would call out our fantastic store operations team who have now driven improvements in shrink for about 1.5 years, year over year, quarter by quarter. We expect that to continue into 2025. And so it's really a story of SRS mix being offset by supply chain productivity, some other great things the merchants are doing and our fantastic store ops team.
我們要感謝我們優秀的店鋪營運團隊,他們已經推動了損耗狀況的改善,持續了大約 1.5 年,逐年、逐季度地改善。我們預計這種情況將持續到 2025 年。所以這實際上是一個 SRS 組合被供應鏈生產力、商家正在做的其他一些偉大的事情以及我們出色的商店營運團隊所抵消的故事。
Isabel Janci - Vice President, Investor Relations & Treasurer
Isabel Janci - Vice President, Investor Relations & Treasurer
Christine, we have time for one more question.
克里斯汀,我們還有時間再問一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Zhihan Ma, Bernstein.
馬志涵,伯恩斯坦。
Zhihan Ma - Analyst
Zhihan Ma - Analyst
Just a final quick one. How does your complex Pro initiatives impact your long-term ROIC expectations, taking into account that you are extending more trade credit and potentially holding more inventory with a broader assortment from here?
最後一個簡短的回答。考慮到您正在提供更多的貿易信貸並可能持有更多庫存以及更廣泛的品種,您的複雜 Pro 計劃如何影響您的長期 ROIC 預期?
Edward Decker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
Edward Decker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer
I wouldn't expect meaningful impact on ROIC through capital investments. We've talked about driving incremental sales and profit dollar growth. That business has a different margin profile, but certainly incremental sales and profit growth. But it's really a reasonably asset-light investment. We leased the DCs. We lease trucks. We bring on sales teams that are commissioned sales forces that sort of earn their keep as they build their portfolios.
我不會期望資本投資對投資報酬率 (ROIC) 產生有意義的影響。我們已經討論過如何推動銷售額和利潤的成長。該業務的利潤率狀況有所不同,但銷售額和利潤肯定有所增長。但這確實是一項合理的輕資產投資。我們租賃了 DCs。我們租賃卡車。我們組成的銷售團隊是經過委託的銷售隊伍,他們在建立自己的產品組合時可以獲得收入。
Trade Credit, as we scaled out, we're tiny, tiny exposure at the moment. But as we build that, it's just not going to be a meaningful balance sheet item given the scale of our overall balance sheet.
貿易信貸,隨著我們的規模擴大,目前我們的敞口非常小。但是,當我們建立它時,考慮到我們整體資產負債表的規模,它將不會成為一個有意義的資產負債表項目。
Operator
Operator
Ms. Janci, I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.
詹西女士,現在我想把發言權交還給您,請您發表最後評論。
Isabel Janci - Vice President, Investor Relations & Treasurer
Isabel Janci - Vice President, Investor Relations & Treasurer
Thank you, Christine, and thank you, everybody, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you on our first-quarter earnings call in May.
謝謝克里斯汀,也謝謝大家今天的參與。我們期待在五月第一季財報電話會議上與您交談。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.
今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路。感謝您的參與,祝您有美好的一天。