Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Cole, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Warrior third-quarter 2024 financial results conference call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded and will be available for a replay on the company's website.

午安.我叫科爾，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此刻，我歡迎大家參加迴力2024年第三季財務業績電話會議。（操作員說明）此通話正在錄音，並將在公司網站上重播。

I would now like to turn the call over to D'Andre Wright, Vice President of External Affairs and Communications. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將電話轉給對外事務和通訊副總裁德安德烈·賴特 (D'Andre Wright)。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and welcome, everyone, to Warrior's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Before we begin, let me remind you that certain statements made during this call, including statements relating to our expected future business and financial performance, may be considered forward-looking statements according to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Forward-looking statements, by their nature, address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. These uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the company's annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC, may cause our actual future results to be materially different from those expected in our forward-looking statements.

下午好，歡迎大家參加 Warrior 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，請允許我提醒您，根據《私人證券訴訟改革法》，本次電話會議期間所做的某些陳述，包括與我們預期的未來業務和財務業績相關的陳述，可能被視為前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述就其性質而言，涉及不同程度的不確定性問題。這些不確定性在公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度和季度報告中進行了更詳細的描述，可能導致我們未來的實際結果與我們前瞻性聲明中的預期存在重大差異。

We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by law. For more information regarding forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's press release and SEC filings. We will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are defined and reconciled to comparable GAAP financial measures in our 2024 third quarter press release furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K, which is also posted on our website. Additionally, we will be filing our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, with the SEC this afternoon.

我們不承諾更新我們的前瞻性陳述，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因，除非法律要求。有關前瞻性陳述的更多信息，請參閱該公司的新聞稿和 SEC 文件。我們還將討論某些非GAAP 財務指標，這些指標在我們以8-K 表格形式向SEC 提供的2024 年第三季度新聞稿中定義並與可比較的GAAP 財務指標進行了協調，該表格也發布在我們的網站上。此外，我們將於今天下午向 SEC 提交截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日的季度的 10-Q 表格。

You can find additional information regarding the company on our website at www.warriormetcoal.com, which also includes the third quarter supplemental slide deck that was posted this afternoon. On the call with me today are Mr. Walter Scheller, Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Dale Boyles, Chief Financial Officer. After our formal remarks, we will be happy to take any questions. With that, I will now turn the call over to Walt.

您可以在我們的網站 www.warriormetcoal.com 上找到有關該公司的更多信息，其中還包括今天下午發布的第三季度補充幻燈片。今天與我通話的是執行長 Walter Scheller 先生；以及財務長 Dale Boyles 先生。在我們正式發言後，我們將很樂意回答任何問題。現在，我將把電話轉給沃特。

Thanks, D'Andre. Hello, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join us today to discuss our third quarter 2024 results. After my remarks, Dale will review our results in additional detail, then you'll have the opportunity to ask questions. We were pleased with our third quarter results despite weak global demand and high-quality steelmaking coal prices reaching a three-year low. While we wait for market conditions to improve, we are carefully managing spot opportunities and are strategically exercising patience with certain geographies.

謝謝，德安德烈。大家好，感謝您今天抽出時間加入我們討論我們的 2024 年第三季業績。在我發言後，戴爾將更詳細地審查我們的結果，然後您將有機會提出問題。儘管全球需求疲軟且優質煉鋼煤價格觸及三年來的低點，但我們對第三季業績感到滿意。在等待市場狀況改善的同時，我們正在謹慎管理現貨機會，並對某些地區保持策略性的耐心。

Despite the external market factors impacting our results, the third quarter represented a significant and positive milestone for us as we produce the first development tons from our world-class Blue Creek growth project on time and within budget. With our high-quality asset base, highly flexible cost structure and a high-performing workforce, we are well positioned to capitalize on improved global steel demand when the market turns. And at the same time, we're advancing the Blue Creek project completion with a rigorous focus on cost and execution. The third quarter turned out to be weaker than we had expected for our markets, primarily driven by a confluence of weaker demand, excess Chinese steel export into our customers' markets and ample supply of steelmaking coals.

儘管外部市場因素影響了我們的業績，但第三季對我們來說是一個重要且積極的里程碑，因為我們在預算範圍內按時從世界一流的 Blue Creek 增長項目生產了第一批開發噸產品。憑藉我們優質的資產基礎、高度靈活的成本結構和高績效的員工隊伍，我們處於有利位置，可以在市場轉變時利用全球鋼鐵需求的改善。同時，我們正在推動 Blue Creek 專案的完成，嚴格關注成本和執行。第三季的表現弱於我們對市場的預期，這主要是由於需求疲軟、中國鋼鐵向客戶市場出口過剩以及煉鋼煤炭供應充足等因素共同推動的。

The reality of higher export volumes of lower-cost Chinese steel has been a growing concern for some time, impacting all steel-producing regions across the world. As such, global steel prices have either extended their downward trend or remained at low values, challenging our customers' margins. The consequences of excess Chinese steel also impact our own markets. This is because Chinese steel production predominantly relies on domestic coals and landlocked Mongolian coals, which typically do not impact the global seaborne met coal balance.

一段時間以來，中國低成本鋼鐵出口量增加的現實日益引起人們的關注，影響了全球所有鋼鐵生產地區。因此，全球鋼材價格要麼延續下跌趨勢，要麼維持低位，對客戶的利潤構成挑戰。中國鋼鐵過剩的後果也影響了我們自己的市場。這是因為中國鋼鐵生產主要依賴國內煤炭和內陸蒙古煤炭，通常不會影響全球海運煤炭平衡。

Along with stable production from Australia, the USA and Canada, these factors have created the lowest pricing environment for steelmaking coal since June of 2021. Our primary index, the PLV FOB Australia, ended the third quarter at $186 per short ton, which was $26 lower than the end of the second quarter at $212 per short ton. During the month of September, the PLV FOB Australian Index established a low point for the year of $163 per short ton. Likewise, in September, the PLV CFR China Index also established its low point of the year at $177 per short ton.

加上澳洲、美國和加拿大產量穩定，這些因素創造了2021年6月以來煉鋼煤的最低定價環境。我們的主要指數 PLV FOB 澳洲第三季末為每短噸 186 美元，比第二季末每短噸 212 美元低 26 美元。9 月份，PLV FOB 澳洲指數創下年內低點 163 美元/短噸。同樣，9月份，PLV CFR中國指數也創下了年度低點177美元/短噸。

Similar declines were observed with the second-tier indices, although both indices displayed different levels of volatility in relation to the PLV FOB Australia Index. We achieved a consolidated gross price realization of 93% in the third quarter, which was a function of product mix, geography and freight rates. At these low prices, we believe that several producers of steelmaking coal have not only experienced significant margin erosion, but may also have experienced realizations below their total cash costs, suggesting that the current pricing environment is not sustainable for extended periods of time. While we expect steelmaking coal prices to improve slightly in the fourth quarter, we believe the pricing environment will remain under pressure due to the persistent weakness in the global steel markets and delayed infrastructure spending in India.

二級指數也出現了類似的下跌，儘管這兩個指數相對於 PLV FOB 澳洲指數顯示出不同程度的波動性。第三季我們的綜合總價格實現率為 93%，這是產品組合、地理位置和運費的函數。在如此低的價格下，我們認為，一些煉鋼用煤生產商不僅經歷了利潤率的大幅下降，而且還可能經歷了低於其總現金成本的變現，這表明當前的定價環境在較長一段時間內是不可持續的。雖然我們預計第四季度煉鋼煤炭價格將小幅改善，但由於全球鋼鐵市場持續疲軟以及印度基礎設施支出推遲，定價環境仍將面臨壓力。

According to the World Steel Association monthly report, global pig iron production decreased by 3.3% in the first nine months of 2024 as compared to the prior year period. Pig iron production in China, which is the world's largest production region, fell by 4.6% for the same period. The rest of the world's pig iron production experienced a more modest decline of 0.5% for the first nine months of the year. India remains a bright spot with a growth rate of 3% and is expected to continue growing with new blast furnace capacity coming online later this year.

根據世界鋼鐵協會月度報告，2024年前9個月全球生鐵產量年減3.3%。全球最大的生鐵生產地區中國的生鐵產量在同一時期下降了4.6%。今年前 9 個月，世界其他地區的生鐵產量出現了 0.5% 的小幅下降。印度仍然是一個亮點，成長率為 3%，預計隨著今年稍後新高爐產能的投產，印度將繼續成長。

Several other regions also experienced positive growth for the period, such as Brazil and certain European countries. However, their gains were largely offset by declining production from Japan and South Korea. Now, let me turn back to our third quarter results. Our third quarter sales volume of 1.9 million short tons was 17.5% lower than the comparable quarter last year.

其他幾個地區在此期間也出現了正向成長，例如巴西和某些歐洲國家。然而，它們的收益在很大程度上被日本和韓國產量下降所抵消。現在，讓我回顧一下我們第三季的業績。第三季銷量為 190 萬短噸，比去年同期下降 17.5%。

As I said earlier, we're carefully managing spot opportunities and strategically exercising patience with certain geographies until the market improves. Our sales by geography in the third quarter break down as follows: 44% into Europe, 41% into Asia and 15% into South America. The majority of the sales in Asia in the third quarter were to customers in Japan, China and India. As we've previously noted, demand from the Asian steel producers has been growing, resulting in higher sales to that geography.

正如我之前所說，我們正在謹慎管理現貨機會，並對某些地區保持策略性耐心，直到市場改善。第三季我們的銷售額按地區劃分如下：44% 銷往歐洲，41% 銷往亞洲，15% 銷往南美洲。第三季亞洲的大部分銷售額來自日本、中國和印度的客戶。正如我們之前指出的，亞洲鋼鐵生產商的需求一直在增長，導致該地區的銷售增加。

While sales from our traditional markets in Europe and South America remain lower, primarily due to weak spot market opportunities. Our spot volume was 23% in the third quarter of 2024, which was primarily sold into the Asian market. This percentage was significantly lower than the reported amounts for the first and second quarters of this year, as we carefully manage spot opportunities during this period of low steelmaking coal prices. For the full year, we expect our spot volume to range between 25% to 30% of total sales volume.

雖然歐洲和南美傳統市場的銷售額仍然較低，這主要是由於現貨市場機會疲軟。2024 年第三季我們的現貨量為 23%，主要銷往亞洲市場。這一百分比明顯低於今年第一季和第二季的報告金額，因為我們在煉鋼煤炭價格較低的時期謹慎管理現貨機會。我們預計全年現貨量將佔總銷量的 25% 至 30%。

Production volume in the third quarter was 1.9 million short tons compared to 2 million short tons in the same quarter of 2023, representing a 3.8% decrease. During the third quarter, we commenced continuous minor development of the first longwall panel at our world-class Blue Creek growth project, producing the first development tons of 39,000 short tons. Our coal inventory increased slightly to 915,000 short tons, which includes the Blue Creek development tons from 895,000 short tons at the end of the second quarter. During the third quarter, we spent $123 million on CapEx and mine development.

第三季產量為190萬短噸，較2023年同季的200萬短噸下降3.8%。第三季度，我們開始對世界一流的 Blue Creek 成長項目的第一塊長壁面板進行持續小規模開發，生產了第一批開發噸 39,000 短噸。我們的煤炭庫存小幅增加至 915,000 短噸，其中包括 Blue Creek 開發噸，從第二季末的 895,000 短噸增加。第三季度，我們在資本支出和礦場開發上花費了 1.23 億美元。

Of that amount, CapEx spending totaled $116 million, which included $94 million on the development of Blue Creek. Mine development spending on the Blue Creek project was $7 million during the third quarter of 2024. Now that we have started developing the first longwall panel at Blue Creek, our mine development costs will continue to grow during the remainder of the year and until the longwall starts production, which we expect to occur in the second quarter 2026. Our Blue Creek growth project continues to make excellent progress.

其中，資本支出總計 1.16 億美元，其中 9,400 萬美元用於 Blue Creek 的開發。2024 年第三季 Blue Creek 專案的礦場開發支出為 700 萬美元。現在我們已經開始在 Blue Creek 開發第一塊長壁壁板，我們的礦場開發成本將在今年剩餘時間內繼續成長，直到長壁壁開始生產，我們預計這將在 2026 年第二季開始生產。我們的 Blue Creek 成長項目持續取得出色進展。

During the third quarter, we completed the installation and commissioning of the service cage, slope belt, slope car and raw coal belt. The completion of these major components allowed us to begin development of the initial longwall panel with the first continuous miner unit. On the surface infrastructure components, we continue to make significant progress on the construction of the preparation plant, which is expected to be online in the middle of 2025. On the coal transportation components, good progress was made on the construction of the approximately 10-mile long clean coal belt structure with the first mile nearly completed.

第三季度，我們完成了服務籠、坡帶、坡車、原煤帶的安裝和調試。這些主要部件的完成使我們能夠開始開發具有第一台連續採礦機的初始長壁面板。在地面基礎設施部分，我們繼續在準備廠建設方面取得重大進展，預計於2025年中期上線。煤炭運輸部分，長約10英里的潔淨煤輸送帶結構建設進展順利，首英里已基本完工。

Steady progress continued during the third quarter on the rail and barge loadouts as well. All of these components remain on schedule. In the near term, we're focusing on increasing our headcount at Blue Creek in order to start two additional continuous miner units in the fourth quarter. Currently, we're on track to meet those goals.

第三季鐵路和駁船裝載也持續穩定進展。所有這些組件均按計劃進行。短期內，我們的重點是增加 Blue Creek 的員工人數，以便在第四季度啟動另外兩個連續採礦機裝置。目前，我們正在實現這些目標。

We are very pleased that the development for the first longwall panel started on schedule during the third quarter, as originally expected, and we're on track to produce approximately 200,000 short tons of high-vol A steelmaking coal in the second half of 2024. As we've said before, the development tons produced from the second half of this year through the first half of 2025 are expected to be sold in the second half of 2025 after the preparation plant comes online. Including the $94 million we invested during the third quarter of 2024, year-to-date development spending on Blue Creek totals $246 million. We expect to invest approximately $325 million to $375 million in 2024 on the project, inclusive of the $246 million already invested.

我們非常高興第一塊長壁壁板的開發按照最初的預期在第三季度按計劃開始，並且我們預計在 2024 年下半年生產約 200,000 短噸高揮發 A 煉鋼煤。正如我們之前所說，今年下半年至2025年上半年生產的開發噸預計在製劑工廠投產後將在2025年下半年銷售。包括我們在 2024 年第三季投資的 9,400 萬美元，年初至今 Blue Creek 的開發支出總計 2.46 億美元。我們預計到 2024 年該項目將投資約 3.25 億至 3.75 億美元，其中包括已投資的 2.46 億美元。

For the entire project to date through the end of third quarter 2024, we've invested a total of $612 million. We remain focused on tight capital spending discipline to ensure the project will be completed within our reset baseline cost estimate on the original schedule, including the longwall start-up in the second quarter 2026. We currently have sufficient liquidity on hand to complete the project within the baseline cost estimate. Blue Creek represents one of the last remaining untapped premium high-quality high-vol A coal reserves in the US, and we anticipate our coal will achieve premium prices.

截至 2024 年第三季末，整個專案的投資總額為 6.12 億美元。我們仍然專注於嚴格的資本支出紀律，以確保該專案將在我們按原計劃重置的基準成本估算範圍內完成，包括 2026 年第二季的長壁啟動。我們目前手頭上有足夠的流動資金，可以在基準成本估算內完成該專案。Blue Creek 是美國僅存的未開發優質高揮發A 煤炭儲量之一，我們預計我們的煤炭將實現溢價。

We expect incremental annualized production of 4.8 million short tons of premium high-vol A steelmaking coal after the start-up of the longwall, which will enhance and strengthen our already strong global cost curve positioning and deliver incremental profit and cash flows. I'll now ask Dale to address our third quarter results in greater detail.

我們預計，長壁開採啟動後，優質高揮發A煉鋼煤的年產量將增加480萬短噸，這將增強和加強我們業已強勁的全球成本曲線定位，並帶來增量利潤和現金流。我現在請戴爾更詳細地介紹我們第三季的業績。

Thanks, Walt. Despite the weaker global demand for steelmaking coal in the third quarter of 2024, we continue to deliver strong operational and financial performance by leveraging our high-quality assets and strong operational competencies. For the third quarter of 2024, Warrior recorded net income on a GAAP basis of $42 million or $0.80 per diluted share compared to net income of $85 million or $1.64 per diluted share in the same quarter of 2023. Non-GAAP adjusted net income for the third quarter, excluding the non-recurring business interruption expenses, was unchanged at $0.80 per diluted share.

謝謝，沃爾特。儘管2024年第三季全球煉鋼煤炭需求疲軟，但我們利用優質資產和強大的營運能力，持續實現強勁的營運和財務表現。2024 年第三季度，Warrior 按 GAAP 計算的淨利潤為 4,200 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.80 美元，而 2023 年同一季度的淨利潤為 8,500 萬美元，即稀釋後每股收益 1.64 美元。扣除非經常性業務中斷費用後，第三季非公認會計準則調整後淨利維持在稀釋每股 0.80 美元不變。

This compares to adjusted net income of $1.85 per diluted share in the same quarter of 2023. These decreases quarter-over-quarter were primarily driven by the 17.5% lower sales volume and a 7% lower average net selling price. This reduced our cash margin per ton to $48 per short ton in the third quarter of 2024 from $70 per short ton in the same quarter of last year. We reported adjusted EBITDA of $79 million in the third quarter of 2024 compared to $146 million in the same quarter of last year.

相比之下，2023 年同一季度調整後每股攤薄淨利潤為 1.85 美元。這些環比下降主要是由於銷量下降 17.5% 和平均淨售價下降 7%。這使得我們的每噸現金利潤率從去年同期的每短噸 70 美元降至 2024 年第三季的每短噸 48 美元。我們報告 2024 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 7,900 萬美元，而去年同期為 1.46 億美元。

Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 24% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to 34% in the same quarter of last year. Our adjusted EBITDA margin per ton was $42 per short ton for the third quarter of 2024, as compared to $65 per short ton in the same quarter of last year. As I previously mentioned, these decreases quarter-over-quarter were primarily driven by the 17.5% lower sales volume, a 7% lower average net selling price and slightly higher cost. Total revenues were $328 million in the third quarter of this year compared to $423 million in the third quarter of 2023.

2024 年第三季我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 24%，而去年同期為 34%。2024 年第三季度，我們調整後的每噸 EBITDA 利潤率為每短噸 42 美元，而去年同期為每短噸 65 美元。正如我之前提到的，這些環比下降主要是由於銷量下降 17.5%、平均淨售價下降 7% 以及成本略高所致。今年第三季的總營收為 3.28 億美元，而 2023 年第三季的總營收為 4.23 億美元。

This overall decrease of $96 million was primarily due to a $73 million decrease in sales volume, combined with a $23 million decrease due to the lower average net selling prices plus lower demurrage and other charges.

整體減少 9,600 萬美元，主要是由於銷量減少 7,300 萬美元，此外平均淨售價下降以及滯期費和其他費用減少導致 2,300 萬美元的減少。

As Walt noted earlier in his comments, the decrease in sales volume was primarily driven by our selectivity with spot sales and our patience in waiting for market conditions to improve in the near term. Demurrage and other charges were $3 million lower compared to the third quarter of 2023 and resulted in an average net selling price of $172 per short ton in the third quarter of 2024 compared to $185 per short ton in the same quarter of last year. Cash cost of sales in the third quarter of 2024 was $230 million or 72% of mining revenues compared to $259 million or 62% of mining revenues in the third quarter of 2023. Of the $29 million decrease in cash cost of sales, $45 million of the decrease was primarily driven by the 17.5% decrease in sales volumes and lower variable transportation and royalty costs.

正如沃爾特早些時候在評論中指出的那樣，銷量下降主要是由於我們對現貨銷售的選擇性以及我們對等待市場狀況在短期內改善的耐心。與 2023 年第三季相比，滯期費和其他費用減少了 300 萬美元，導致 2024 年第三季的平均淨售價為每短噸 172 美元，而去年同期為每短噸 185 美元。2024 年第三季的現金銷售成本為 2.3 億美元，佔礦業收入的 72%，而 2023 年第三季為 2.59 億美元，佔礦業收入的 62%。在現金銷售成本減少 2,900 萬美元中，其中 4,500 萬美元的減少主要是由於銷量下降 17.5% 以及可變運輸和特許權使用費降低。

These decreases were partially offset by $16 million of higher production costs for employee wages and incentives associated with a higher headcount and higher supply and maintenance costs. Cash cost of sales per short ton FOB port was approximately $123 in the third quarter of this year compared to $115 in the third quarter of 2023. Although higher than last year's third quarter, our third quarter cash cost per ton this year was similar to the second quarter of this year and is running slightly below the midpoint of our full year guidance. Cash cost per ton remains on track for the full year and in line with our average net selling price year-to-date.

這些下降被 1600 萬美元的員工工資生產成本上升以及與員工數量增加和供應和維護成本增加相關的激勵措施所部分抵消。今年第三季每短噸離岸港口的現金銷售成本約為 123 美元，而 2023 年第三季為 115 美元。儘管高於去年第三季度，但今年第三季每噸現金成本與今年第二季相似，略低於我們全年指引的中點。全年每噸現金成本仍保持在正常水平，並且與我們年初至今的平均淨售價一致。

As a reminder, when we established guidance for the full year of 2024 back in February, we included additional costs for hiring approximately 250 people and operating the mines at a higher capacity rate after the labor strike ended in the first half of 2023. Our cash cost of production for the third quarter of 2024 was 66% of our total cash cost per short ton compared to 62% in the same quarter last year. Overall, transportation and royalty costs were 34% of our cash cost of sales per short ton in the third quarter this year on lower average net selling prices compared to 38% in the same quarter last year. As a result of the lower average net selling price and changes in our cash cost, our cash margin per short ton was $48 in the third quarter this year compared to $70 in the same quarter of last year.

提醒一下，當我們在 2 月制定 2024 年全年指導時，我們包括了在 2023 年上半年罷工結束後僱用約 250 名員工以及以更高產能率運營礦山的額外成本。2024 年第三季我們的現金生產成本佔每短噸總現金成本的 66%，去年同期為 62%。總體而言，今年第三季度，運輸和特許權使用費占我們每短噸現金銷售成本的 34%，平均淨售價低於去年同期的 38%。由於平均淨售價較低以及現金成本的變化，今年第三季每短噸的現金利潤為 48 美元，而去年同期為 70 美元。

SG&A expenses were about $11 million or 3.5% of total revenues in the third quarter of 2024 and were slightly higher than the third quarter of last year of 2.6%. This is primarily due to an increase in employee-related compensation expenses. The interest income earned on our cash investments was lower in the third quarter of this year, primarily due to lower average cash balances and lower rates of return. Our interest expense was lower primarily due to the early retirement of debt in September of 2023 and the capitalization of interest related to the development of Blue Creek.

2024 年第三季度，SG&A 費用約為 1,100 萬美元，佔總營收的 3.5%，略高於去年第三季的 2.6%。這主要是由於與員工相關的薪酬費用增加。今年第三季度，我們的現金投資賺取的利息收入較低，主要是由於平均現金餘額較低和回報率較低。我們的利息支出較低，主要是由於 2023 年 9 月提前償還債務以及與 Blue Creek 開發相關的利息資本化。

Our low effective tax rate continues to reflect an income tax benefit for depletion expense and foreign-derived intangible income. Turning to cash flow, during the third quarter of 2024, free cash flow was a negative $61 million. This was the result of cash flows generated by operating activities of $62 million, plus cash used for capital expenditures and mine development of $123 million. During the third quarter, we invested approximately $50 million of cash into longer duration fixed income securities with maturities greater than 12 months in advance of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates.

我們的低有效稅率繼續反映了消耗費用和外國無形收入的所得稅優惠。談到現金流，2024 年第三季度，自由現金流為負 6,100 萬美元。這是由於經營活動產生的現金流量為 6,200 萬美元，加上用於資本支出和礦山開發的現金 1.23 億美元。第三季度，我們將約 5,000 萬美元現金投資於期限較長的固定收益證券，這些證券的到期日在聯準會降息之前超過 12 個月。

These amounts are reflected in the balance sheet as long-term investments and are considered a part of our total liquidity. Our total available liquidity at the end of the third quarter of 2024 was $746 million and consisted of cash and cash equivalents of $583 million, long-term investments of $50 million and $114 million available under our ABL facility. Now let's turn to our outlook and guidance for the full year 2024. After another strong quarter of operational and financial performance despite weak demand and pricing in the global markets, we have reaffirmed our outlook and guidance for the full year, as outlined in our earnings release.

這些金額作為長期投資反映在資產負債表中，並被視為我們總流動資金的一部分。截至 2024 年第三季末，我們的可用流動資金總額為 7.46 億美元，其中包括 5.83 億美元的現金和現金等價物、5000 萬美元的長期投資以及 ABL 設施下可用的 1.14 億美元。現在讓我們談談我們對 2024 年全年的展望和指導。儘管全球市場的需求和定價疲軟，但在又一個強勁的季度營運和財務業績之後，我們重申了我們在財報中概述的全年前景和指導。

While we are trending toward the midpoint and higher end of our guidance ranges on volumes, we remain cautious, especially on spot opportunities until market conditions improve. Also, as a reminder, the fourth quarter contains more holidays and fewer available production days. I'll now turn it back to Walt for his final comments.

雖然我們的交易量正趨向指導範圍的中點和高端，但我們仍保持謹慎態度，尤其是在市場狀況改善之前的現貨機會。另外，提醒一下，第四季的假期較多，可用生產天數較少。現在我將把它轉回沃爾特以徵求他的最終意見。

Thanks, Dale. We continue to expect our markets to improve over the next quarter or two, hopefully above cost curve economics, although we believe pricing may remain below averages we've seen in recent years. Improvements in demand are expected to come mainly from India, and a few select countries. China's recently announced stimulus package and actions are notable, but we're cautious in judging the potential to boost demand in our markets and we'll need time to analyze the total impact.

謝謝，戴爾。我們繼續預計我們的市場將在未來一兩個季度有所改善，希望高於成本曲線經濟學，儘管我們認為定價可能仍低於近年來的平均值。預計需求的改善主要來自印度和一些選定的國家。中國最近宣布的刺激計劃和行動引人注目，但我們在判斷提振市場需求的潛力時持謹慎態度，我們需要時間來分析整體影響。

Overall, we expect steelmaking coal supply to be somewhat tighter in the last quarter of this year, as the market feels the full impact of losing the Grosvenor supply, as Australia enters its typical wet season. In conclusion, despite near-term challenges, we're on track to continue to deliver strong operational and financial performance by leveraging our high-quality assets, strong balance sheet and best-in-class operations. With that, we'd like to open the call up for questions. Operator?

總體而言，我們預計今年最後一個季度煉鋼煤炭供應將有所收緊，因為隨著澳洲進入典型的雨季，市場感受到格羅夫納供應喪失的全面影響。總而言之，儘管近期面臨挑戰，但我們有望利用我們的優質資產、強勁的資產負債表和一流的運營，繼續實現強勁的營運和財務業績。至此，我們想開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Lucas Pipes, B. Riley Securities.

（操作員指示）Lucas Pipes，B. Riley Securities。

And good to hear about all the progress at Blue Creek and also your solid realizations during the quarter. My first question is on the commercial side. And Walt and Dale, if I heard you right, spot exposure was 23% in Q3, and you're still looking at kind of 25% to 30% in 2024. And I wondered, first, could you comment on the Q4 outlook in terms of spot pricing?

很高興聽到 Blue Creek 的所有進展以及您在本季度的紮實實現。我的第一個問題是商業方面的。Walt 和 Dale，如果我沒聽錯的話，第三季的現貨曝光率為 23%，而 2024 年您仍預計該比例為 25% 至 30%。我想知道，首先，您能否對第四季度的現貨定價前景發表評論？

And then more broadly, as you compete in Asia for business with Europe, Latin America still on the softer side. What are some of the competitive dynamics, as you kind of price or look to put in place term business? Is it against is it on the basis of the Australian PLV High-Vol A discounts to that of any sort would appreciate any thoughts you might be able to share?

更廣泛地說，當你在亞洲與歐洲競爭業務時，拉丁美洲仍然處於弱勢。當您定價或尋求定期業務時，有哪些競爭動態？是否反對？

Thanks, Lucas. Lucas, as we look out into Q4 and our spot expectations, what we're doing is, as we've said a couple of times, is that we're really carefully watching exactly where the market is and what type of market is, whether it's CFR or FOB. And the vast majority of Asian spot sales are CFR. So we're monitoring that very carefully. And while we could move more tons, we're going to be pretty careful about when and where we decide to move them because of that.

謝謝，盧卡斯。盧卡斯，當我們展望第四季度和我們的現貨預期時，正如我們多次說過的那樣，我們正在做的是，我們正在仔細觀察市場的具體位置以及市場類型，無論是 CFR 還是 FOB。絕大多數亞洲現貨銷售都是CFR。所以我們正在非常仔細地監控這一點。雖然我們可以移動更多噸，但我們將非常謹慎地決定何時何地移動它們。

I think that term business in Asia outside of the term business, we have term business in Japan. But as you look into China and others, term business is kind of difficult to come by at reasonable pricing. So right now, we're just being very careful about what we commit to and making sure that we're protecting what we think are outstanding assets and outstanding coal qualities until the market is able to recognize that value.

我認為除了亞洲的業務之外，我們在日本還有業務這個術語。但當你觀察中國和其他國家時，你會發現很難以合理的價格獲得長期業務。因此，現在，我們只是非常謹慎地對待我們的承諾，並確保我們正在保護我們認為優秀的資產和優秀的煤炭品質，直到市場能夠認識到這一價值。

Walt, this is super helpful. So on my numbers, you came in at about 90% realization in Q3 versus PLV. Is that a reasonable assumption for Q4 given your discipline on the score?

沃爾特，這非常有幫助。因此，根據我的數據，與 PLV 相比，您在第三季的實現率約為 90%。考慮到你對分數的紀律，這對第四季來說是一個合理的假設嗎？

I think you have to be really careful with it. As we've said before, we've projected that we'd be in the mid-80s to 90%. And I think when you see us up in the 90s, where we were, it's a reflection of a falling market. And I think we have to keep that in mind. If the market stays flat, I would expect the number to be a little lower than that 93%.

我認為你必須非常小心。正如我們之前所說，我們預計這一比例將在 80 年代中期至 90% 之間。我認為，當你看到我們在 20 世紀 90 年代所處的位置時，這反映了市場的下滑。我認為我們必須牢記這一點。如果市場保持平穩，我預計這個數字會略低於 93%。

I could be wrong, hopefully. And if the market goes up, I would expect that number to drop more considerably because remember, that all trails by about a month. So it's kind of difficult to really predict exactly where that will end up, but be careful with that 93% because it is a falling market.

希望我可能是錯的。如果市場上漲，我預計這個數字會下降得更大幅度，因為請記住，所有數據都會下降大約一個月。因此，很難真正準確地預測最終結果，但要小心這 93%，因為這是一個下跌的市場。

That's helpful. I'll turn over to the cost side. If I understood, Dale, right in his prepared remarks, he mentioned kind of variable costs on the transportation side. One, could you speak to the sensitivity in transportation to changes in the price? And has all of that benefit kind of flown through at this point? Or could there be more variable cost adjustments on transportation in Q4? I would appreciate your thoughts on that.

這很有幫助。我將轉向成本方面。如果我理解的話，戴爾，在他準備好的演講中，他提到了運輸方面的可變成本。第一，您能談談運輸對價格變化的敏感度嗎？現在所有這些好處都已經實現了嗎？或者第四季度運輸方面是否會有更多變動成本調整？我很感激你對此的想法。

Do you want to take that?

你想接受嗎？

Yes. So yes, transportation now resets on a 1-month lag, Lucas, not a three-month like we used to have. So there is a little bit to be gained maybe possibly in the fourth quarter, but I don't see it as significant depending on the volumes. But there could be a little upside on transportation in the fourth quarter.

是的。所以，是的，盧卡斯，交通運輸現在延遲了 1 個月，而不是像我們以前那樣延遲了 3 個月。因此，第四季可能會有一些收益，但根據銷量，我認為收益並不大。但第四季的交通運輸可能會出現一些上漲。

And more broadly on the cost side for Q4, any major moving besides that transportation, any other moving pieces to keep in mind for Q4 on the cost side?

更廣泛地說，在第四季度的成本方面，除了運輸之外，還有其他重大變化嗎？

There shouldn't be. We've had a couple of longwall moves in the third quarter. Again, we've managed to get those moves down to zero day or minimal moves and also, at the mouth of those sections, conditions get a little tougher. So we're out of that. So I don't see any major cost impacts in the fourth quarter, positive or negative.

不應該有。我們在第三季進行了幾次長壁運動。同樣，我們已經設法將這些移動減少到零日或最小移動，而且，在這些部分的入口處，情況變得更加困難。所以我們已經擺脫了這種情況。因此，我認為第四季度的成本不會受到任何重大影響，無論是正面還是負面。

Nathan Martin, The Benchmark Company.

內森馬丁，基準公司。

Maybe just following up on one of Lucas' questions. Clearly, like you guys said, markets kind of remaining depressed, you mentioned exercising some patience with sales, which I think is prudent. But how should we think about this impacting your opportunity to ship coal here in the fourth quarter? Could you anticipate maybe fourth quarter shipments actually being down sequentially if demand doesn't improve?

也許只是跟進盧卡斯的一個問題。顯然，正如你們所說，市場仍然低迷，你們提到對銷售保持一定的耐心，我認為這是謹慎的。但我們該如何看待這對你們第四季在這裡運送煤炭的機會的影響？如果需求沒有改善，您是否可以預期第四季的出貨量實際上會連續下降？

I don't believe so. I think we should be from where we expected for the fourth quarter you have to remember, again, as we said, we have fewer operating days. And I think as we look at the fourth quarter, our expectation is to land right in the heart of our full year guidance.

我不相信是這樣。我認為我們應該達到我們對第四季的預期，你必須再次記住，正如我們所說，我們的營業天數較少。我認為，當我們展望第四季時，我們的期望是成為全年指導的核心。

Okay. Well, I appreciate that. So if I say right in the middle of the full year guidance of sales, right, that would be 7.8 million tons. Is that what you're talking about for the full year?

好的。嗯，我很欣賞這一點。因此，如果我說全年銷售指引值的中間，那就是 780 萬噸。這就是你所說的全年嗎？

Yes, yes. So that would put us, say, fourth quarter could be very similar, maybe just slightly below the third quarter.

是的，是的。因此，第四季的情況可能非常相似，可能略低於第三季。

Yes. That's what I was thinking, Dale. Yes, because it looks like if you're flat, you get to about 7.9 million tons. So okay. That's very helpful. I appreciate that, guys. And then maybe just coming back to the 3Q gross price realization, the 93%. I know I asked about that last quarter.

是的。我就是這麼想的，戴爾。是的，因為看起來如果你持平的話，你會達到大約 790 萬噸。那麼好吧。這非常有幫助。我很感激，夥計們。然後也許只是回到第三季的總價格實現，即 93%。我知道我上個季度問過這個問題。

Obviously, Lucas just touched on that as well. But maybe from just the pure math of it, and I know there are several investors out there that maybe appreciate a walk through there. So when people are trying to calculate the average net price for really any given quarter, a, what's the best time period to use, so that we can get to that 93% number you guys talked about?

顯然，盧卡斯也談到了這一點。但也許僅從純粹的數學角度來看，我知道有幾位投資者可能會喜歡在那裡散步。因此，當人們試圖計算任何給定季度的平均淨價時，a，最好使用什麼時間段，以便我們能夠得到你們所說的 93% 的數字？

Well, we just take the averages of what our realization is of the PLV during that period, right? And that's really the simple math about it. You have to take out the demurrage and all those things in our average net selling price. So that's it's that simple, really.

好吧，我們只是取該時期我們實現的 PLV 的平均值，對嗎？這確實是一個簡單的數學計算。您必須在我們的平均淨售價中扣除滯期費和所有這些費用。就是這麼簡單，真的。

And you're really looking at, for instance, for the fourth quarter, you're really looking at coal pricing from September, October, November, not October, November, December because of the one-month lag. So you really need to go back to September pricing, October pricing and November pricing to figure out, where we're likely to be.

例如，對於第四季度，您實際上是在查看 9 月、10 月、11 月的煤炭定價，而不是 10 月、11 月、12 月，因為有一個月的延遲。因此，您確實需要回顧 9 月的定價、10 月的定價和 11 月的定價，以弄清楚我們可能會處於什麼位置。

Okay. And I think that might be some of the issues because if I look at, again, the one-month lag, let's say, Walt for 3Q, right? So we're looking at instead of the normal calendar, we're looking at June, July, August, I end up with an FOB Australian premium low-vol price of about $230, and it's difficult to get to that 93% realization. Maybe some of it is backing out the demurrage pieces. I don't know if there's any other things you want to add right now, or we can just take it offline.

好的。我認為這可能是一些問題，因為如果我再看一下一個月的滯後，比方說，第三季的沃爾特，對嗎？因此，我們關注的是 6 月、7 月、8 月，而不是正常的日曆，我最終得到的 FOB 澳洲溢價低波動價格約為 230 美元，很難實現 93% 的實現。也許其中一些是取消滯期費。我不知道您現在是否還想添加其他內容，或者我們可以將其離線。

Yes. Let's take it offline.

是的。讓我們將其離線。

Okay. Appreciate that. And then maybe just one final question on the cost side. You guys have said previously the full year '24 cost per ton guidance range of $125 to $135 assumes roughly a $250 to $260 per metric ton obviously premium low-vol price. Given where markets are today, call it, $200, $204, could you give us an idea of what cost per ton might look like at that price?

好的。很欣賞這一點。然後也許只是成本方面的最後一個問題。你們之前說過，24 年全年每噸成本指引範圍為 125 美元至 135 美元，假設每噸約為 250 美元至 260 美元，明顯溢價低波動價格。考慮到今天的市場狀況，稱之為 200 美元、204 美元，您能否告訴我們在這個價格下每噸的成本可能會是多少？

Well, I think we would be in the lower end of that range. If you look on a year-to-date basis, we're at $127. And if you look at the average selling price, $198 convert that to metric, then you're looking at an 88% net realization of that versus the $250. So that's why I say we're right in line today.

嗯，我認為我們將處於該範圍的下限。如果你看看今年迄今為止的價格，我們的價格是 127 美元。如果您查看平均售價（198 美元），將其轉換為公制，那麼您會發現該價格的淨實現率為 88%，而 250 美元則為 250 美元。這就是為什麼我說我們今天排隊的原因。

But if fourth quarter pricing is lower, our cost hopefully will be lower in the fourth quarter. Now it depends on the volumes, right, the volume impact. But we should be if pricing stays lower, and we don't have any upticks from here, we should be in that lower end of the range because you're going to have your volume impact, right? So if we cut back volume significantly, that could have an impact on it.

但如果第四季的定價較低，我們的成本預計在第四季降低。現在這取決於數量，對吧，數量的影響。但如果價格保持在較低水平，我們沒有任何上漲，我們應該處於該範圍的下限，因為你將會受到銷售影響，對嗎？因此，如果我們大幅削減銷量，可能會對其產生影響。

Yes. Makes sense, lower denominator.

是的。有道理，分母較小。

(Operator Instructions) Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）Katja Jancic，BMO 資本市場。

I know next year, second half of next year, you're going to start shipping or selling the Blue Creek volume. Are you already in conversations with customers about that volume?

我知道明年下半年，你們將開始運送或銷售藍溪卷。您是否已與客戶就該數量進行對話？

Yes, we are.

是的，我們是。

And what are the conversations? Are you going to be contracting that already? Or it's going to be more on the spot side?

對話內容是什麼？你已經要簽約了嗎？還是會更多在現場進行？

I think it will be the expectation of contract. I mean, these are going to, again, it's a new coal mine. Everyone is going to want to see how it works in their coke ovens. So we're going to be shipping that off to customers to try a couple of holes or a full cargo of, but we'll be placing that coal with various customers to give them a first try at it.

我認為這將是合約的期望。我的意思是，這些將再次成為一個新煤礦。每個人都想看看它在焦爐中是如何運作的。因此，我們將把這些煤炭運送給客戶，讓他們嘗試幾個孔洞或整批貨物，但我們會將這些煤炭交給不同的客戶，讓他們進行第一次嘗試。

And then this year, I think you mentioned you're going to be hiring about 250 people or you're on track to hire 250. Looking to next year, how much -- how many more people do you need to hire?

今年，我想您提到您將僱用大約 250 名員工，或者您預計將僱用 250 名員工。展望明年，您還需要雇用多少人？

I think next year for Blue Creek, we're probably going to be in. We're still doing the budgeting process, but the 100 range, I would say, something like that. I don't know for sure. But for some reason, I just feel like that's going to be around the number. But again, we're in the budgeting process right now. So I don't --.

我認為明年藍溪我們可能會加入。我們仍在進行預算流程，但我想說的是 100 的範圍，類似的東西。我不確定。但出於某種原因，我只是覺得這個數字差不多。但同樣，我們現在正在預算過程中。所以我不--.

Yes, just a swag right there.

是的，只是那裡的一個贓物。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, it may be a little more than that, but we need to finalize the budget for next year.

我的意思是，可能比這個多一點，但我們需要最終確定明年的預算。

And then is it fair to assume that some of that will put some pressure on the cost side, at least in the first half of the year?

那麼，是否可以公平地假設其中一些因素至少在今年上半年會給成本帶來一些壓力？

No, not until you sell some of that coal, all that will go to mine development.

不，除非你出售一些煤炭，否則所有這些煤炭都將用於礦山開發。

And at this time, there are no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Scheller for any closing remarks.

而此時，已經沒有其他問題了。我想將電話轉回給謝勒先生，請他發表結束語。

That concludes our call this afternoon. Thank you, again, for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Warrior.

我們今天下午的電話會議到此結束。再次感謝您今天加入我們。我們感謝您對戰士的興趣。

Thank you. And that does conclude today's conference. Thank you, all for participating. And at this time, you may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。此時，您可以斷開線路。