Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Michael, and I will be your conference call operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Warrior Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). This call is being recorded and will be available for replay on the company's website.

午安.我叫邁克爾，今天我將擔任你們的電話會議接線生。在此，我謹代表 Warrior 公司歡迎各位參加 2025 年第三季財務業績電話會議。（操作說明）本次通話將會被錄音，並可在公司網站上回放。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Chien, Chief Accounting Officer and Controller. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給首席會計官兼財務總監布萊恩·錢 (Brian Chien) 主持。請繼續。

Good afternoon, and welcome, everyone, to Warrior's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Before we begin, let me remind you that certain statements made during this call, including statements relating to our expected future business and financial performance, may be considered forward-looking statements according to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act.

下午好，歡迎各位參加 Warrior 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。在開始之前，請允許我提醒各位，根據《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本次電話會議中作出的某些陳述，包括與我們預期未來業務和財務業績相關的陳述，可能被視為前瞻性陳述。

Forward-looking statements, by their nature, address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. These uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the company's annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC, may cause our actual future results to be materially different from those expected in our forward-looking statements.

前瞻性陳述本質上涉及不同程度的不確定事項。這些不確定因素在公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度和季度報告中有更詳細的描述，這些不確定因素可能導致我們未來的實際業績與我們在前瞻性聲明中預期的業績存在重大差異。

We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by law. For more information regarding forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's press releases and SEC filings. We will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are defined and reconciled to comparable GAAP financial measures in our third-quarter press release furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K, which is also posted on our website.

除法律另有規定外，我們不承諾更新我們的前瞻性聲明，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。有關前瞻性聲明的更多信息，請參閱本公司的新聞稿和向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。我們還將討論一些非GAAP財務指標，這些指標的定義以及與可比較GAAP財務指標的調節表已在提交給美國證券交易委員會的8-K表格第三季度新聞稿中列出，該新聞稿也已發佈在我們的網站上。

Additionally, we will be filing our Form 10-Q for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, with the SEC this afternoon. You can find additional information regarding the company on our website at www.warriormetcoal.com, which also includes a third-quarter supplemental slide deck that was posted this afternoon. Today on the call with me are Mr. Walt Scheller, Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Dale Boyles, Chief Financial Officer. After our formal remarks, we will be happy to answer any questions.

此外，我們將於今天下午向美國證券交易委員會提交截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日的第三季 10-Q 表格。您可以在我們的網站 www.warriormetcoal.com 上找到有關公司的更多信息，其中還包括今天下午發布的第三季度補充幻燈片。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有執行長沃爾特·謝勒先生和財務長戴爾·博伊爾斯先生。正式發言結束後，我們將樂意回答任何問題。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Walt.

接下來，我將把電話交給沃特。

Thanks, Brian. Hello, everyone, and thanks for taking the time to join us today to discuss our third-quarter 2025 results. I'll start by providing an overview of the quarter before Dale reviews our results in additional detail.

謝謝你，布萊恩。大家好，感謝各位今天抽出時間與我們一起討論我們2025年第三季的業績。我先概述一下本季的情況，然後再由戴爾更詳細地分析我們的業績。

We're extremely excited to share that our third quarter presented an opportunity for Warrior to showcase its strength in a number of ways. From a strong financial performance to significant operational achievements, we've been driving success in the near term while continuing to improve our long-term position and prospects. We have an exciting future ahead of us, and this is a direct result of our unwavering commitment to operational excellence and the exceptional teamwork and dedication of our employees.

我們非常高興地宣布，第三季為勇士隊提供了在多個方面展現自身實力的機會。從強勁的財務表現到顯著的營運成就，我們在短期內取得了成功，同時也不斷改善我們的長期地位和前景。我們擁有令人振奮的未來，這直接得益於我們對卓越營運的堅定承諾以及員工出色的團隊合作和奉獻精神。

First, from an operational achievement perspective, I'm thrilled to announce that in October, we started the Longwall operations at Blue Creek, which are approximately eight months ahead of schedule. This remarkable accomplishment underscores our team's exceptional execution and reflects our commitment to driving shareholder value with high-value strategic investments.

首先，從營運成果的角度來看，我很高興地宣布，我們在 10 月開始了 Blue Creek 的長壁採煤作業，比原計劃提前了大約 8 個月。這項卓越成就凸顯了我們團隊的出色執行力，也體現了我們致力於透過高價值策略投資來提升股東價值的承諾。

Second, factoring in the earlier startup of Blue Creek longwall, we now expect to produce approximately 1.8 million short tons of high-vol steelmaking coal from the Blue Creek mine, representing an additional 800,000 short tons this year or an 80% increase over our initial 2025 guidance. As a result, we've raised our full year 2025 production volume guidance by approximately 10%.

其次，考慮到 Blue Creek 長壁採煤廠提前投產，我們現在預計 Blue Creek 煤礦將生產約 180 萬短噸高揮發性煉鋼煤，比我們最初 2025 年的預期產量增加 80 萬短噸，增幅達 80%。因此，我們將 2025 年全年產量預期提高了約 10%。

Third, earlier this month, Warrior won the bidding in the federal coal lease sale of 58 million short tons of high-quality steelmaking coal reserves contiguous to our current operations. Subject to the finalization of a binding lease agreement with the Bureau of Land Management, this strategic opportunity is expected to enhance our long-term value proposition by bolstering our reserve base and extending the life of our core mining operations. I'll provide further details on these accomplishments in a few moments.

第三，本月初，Warrior 公司在聯邦煤炭租賃拍賣中勝出，獲得了與我們目前營運區域相鄰的 5,800 萬短噸優質煉鋼煤儲量。在與土地管理局最終達成具有約束力的租賃協議的前提下，這項戰略機會有望透過增強我們的儲量基礎和延長我們核心採礦業務的壽命來提升我們的長期價值主張。稍後我將詳細介紹這些成就。

From a financial performance perspective, we delivered a strong performance in the third quarter despite ongoing weak steelmaking coal market conditions. The combination of our high-quality products and strong customer relationships, supported by our variable cost model, generated impressive net income and adjusted EBITDA. We have confidence that our operational successes will continue to drive strong financial performance over the coming quarters.

從財務業績角度來看，儘管煉鋼煤市場持續疲軟，但我們在第三季仍取得了強勁的業績。憑藉高品質的產品和強大的客戶關係，以及可變成本模式的支持，我們實現了可觀的淨收入和調整後 EBITDA。我們有信心，未來幾個季度，我們營運上的成功將繼續推動強勁的財務表現。

Turning back to Blue Creek. Let me provide you some additional details on this transformational growth project. Achieving a start-up for Blue Creek's longwall operations eight months earlier than our original time line is almost unheard of in this industry; where projects are usually delayed for years and many millions of dollars over budget, particularly in an inflationary environment.

返回藍溪。讓我向您提供一些關於這個變革性成長項目的更多細節。在石油業，Blue Creek 長壁採煤作業比原計劃提前八個月啟動，這幾乎是聞所未聞的；在這個行業，項目通常會延期數年，預算超支數百萬美元，尤其是在通貨膨脹的環境下。

The success of our Blue Creek development was cumulative over the project timeline and a testament to our incredibly talented employees and partners. They provided an opportunity for us to demonstrate the strength of our talented workforce and the performance-driven culture of our organization. I want to extend my sincere thanks to all the employees and our partners for their hard work, dedication, and resilience to bring this project to fruition, approximately eight months ahead of schedule while staying on budget. These accomplishments are a direct result of their efforts and continue to drive our success as we execute our long-term growth strategy.

Blue Creek 專案的成功是整個專案週期中逐步累積的結果，也是我們才華橫溢的員工和合作夥伴的最佳證明。他們為我們提供了一個機會，讓我們能夠展現我們優秀員工隊伍的實力和我們組織以績效為導向的企業文化。我要衷心感謝所有員工和合作夥伴的辛勤工作、奉獻精神和堅韌不拔的精神，使這個專案得以提前約八個月完成，並且沒有超出預算。這些成就直接歸功於他們的努力，並將繼續推動我們成功，幫助我們執行長期成長策略。

The Blue Creek mine features world-class assets, which incorporate the most modern and latest technology available in the mining industry. It was built with the scope and scale to accommodate more than 6 million short tons of annual production of high-quality steelmaking coal and the potential to be the lowest cost mine in the world. In addition, these assets enable Warrior to scale up and expand in the future to a second longwall operation if market requirements dictate such an increase in production. Our team's sense of urgency and high performance enabled us to accelerate the start-up of Blue Creek longwall for a second time.

藍溪礦擁有世界一流的資產，融合了採礦業中最先進、最尖端的技術。該煤礦的建設規模和範圍足以容納每年超過 600 萬短噸的優質煉鋼煤產量，並有可能成為世界上成本最低的煤礦。此外，如果市場需求需要提高產量，這些資產將使 Warrior 能夠在未來擴大規模，建立第二個長壁採煤作業區。我們團隊的緊迫感和高效表現使我們能夠第二次加快藍溪長壁採煤廠的啟動。

In October, we completed key infrastructure, including the installation of the overland and clean coal belt, along with the remaining modules of the preparation plant and made significant progress on the barge loadout and other key infrastructure components.

10 月份，我們完成了關鍵基礎設施建設，包括陸上清潔煤輸送帶的安裝，以及選煤廠剩餘模組的安裝，並在駁船裝載和其他關鍵基礎設施組件方面取得了重大進展。

Financially, we dedicated another $64 million of capital expenditures in the third quarter and $171 million year-to-date on the Blue Creek project. That brings the total project to date capital expenditures to $888 million, which remains on budget. Our total project estimate remains unchanged, ranging from $995 million to $1.075 billion.

在財務方面，我們在第三季又投入了 6,400 萬美元的資本支出，今年迄今已投入 1.71 億美元用於 Blue Creek 專案。這使得該項目迄今為止的總資本支出達到 8.88 億美元，仍在預算之內。我們對整個專案的估算保持不變，範圍在 9.95 億美元至 10.75 億美元之間。

Looking ahead, we will be laser-focused in the fourth quarter on ramping up longwall production and optimizing the performance of the underground surface infrastructure. While the underground longwall operations have recently commenced, a significant amount of work remains to complete the project, which we expect will occur by the end of the first quarter in 2026. The remaining work includes completing the barge loadout, paving roads, completing storage and shop buildings, additional storage silos and final electrical installations, along with the usual assortment of final project details.

展望未來，我們將在第四季度集中精力提高長壁採煤產量並優化地下地面基礎設施的性能。雖然地下長壁開採作業最近已經開始，但要完成該專案還有大量工作要做，我們預計該專案將在 2026 年第一季末完成。剩餘的工作包括完成駁船裝載、鋪設道路、完成倉庫和商店建築、額外的儲料筒倉和最終的電氣安裝，以及各種常見的項目收尾細節。

The accelerated Blue Creek longwall start-up enables us to increase our guidance for total company production and sales volumes for 2025, as you will have seen in our earnings release. We've raised our Blue Creek production volume by 80% from 1 million short tons to 1.8 million tons. We expect to sell approximately two-thirds of the Blue Creek coal production or approximately 1.2 million tons in 2025.

正如您在我們的獲利報告中看到的那樣，Blue Creek 長壁採煤專案的加速啟動使我們能夠提高對公司 2025 年總產量和銷售額的預期。我們將藍溪水庫的產量提高了 80%，從 100 萬短噸提高到 180 萬短噸。我們預計到 2025 年將售出 Blue Creek 煤炭產量的約三分之二，約 120 萬噸。

This increase in production from Blue Creek raises our full-year outlook for production volume by approximately 10% at the midpoint of the range. This start-up marks another critical inflection point in the development of this world-class asset, representing the start of transition from capital investment to free cash flow generation.

Blue Creek 產量的增加使我們對全年產量的預期在區間中點上提高了約 10%。這家新創公司標誌著這一世界級資產發展歷程中的另一個關鍵轉折點，代表著從資本投資向自由現金流產生過渡的開始。

Turning to another growth opportunity. We learned in September that we were a successful bidder in the federal coal lease sale administered by the Bureau of Land Management. Once we enter into this lease, the acquisition will expand our footprint strategically, with the addition of an estimated 58 million short tons of high-quality steelmaking coal reserves. These reserves are adjacent to existing infrastructure, which will allow for efficient integration into our current operations and capital planning.

轉向另一個成長機會。9 月我們得知，我們成功競標了由土地管理局管理的聯邦煤炭租賃權拍賣會。一旦我們簽訂此租賃協議，此次收購將使我們的策略版圖擴大，預計新增 5,800 萬短噸優質煉鋼煤儲量。這些儲備與現有基礎設施相鄰，這將使我們能夠有效地將其整合到我們目前的營運和資本規劃中。

Also, this acquisition will allow for access to additional reserves that can further the life of both Mine 4 and Blue Creek. The total bid for the leases is approximately $47 million, which will be paid over five years. We appreciate the Bureau of Land Management's efficient review that supported the Alabama federal delegation and our local and state government officials in advancing this process. We also appreciate the Department of Interior Secretary, Doug Burgum, and the entire Trump administration for the support of mining on federal lands.

此外，此次收購將使我們能夠獲得額外的儲量，從而延長 4 號礦和藍溪礦的壽命。這些租賃權的總報價約為 4,700 萬美元，將在五年內支付。我們感謝土地管理局高效的審查工作，這為阿拉巴馬州聯邦代表團以及我們當地和州政府官員推進這一進程提供了支持。我們也要感謝內政部長道格·伯古姆以及整個川普政府對聯邦土地採礦的支持。

While there are several regulatory and administrative steps that remain before Warrior finalizes the lease agreements with the Bureau of Land Management, we are actively engaged with the relevant agencies to ensure timely progress and compliance with all requirements. We expect this process will be completed shortly after the end of the government shutdown.

雖然在 Warrior 與土地管理局最終敲定租賃協議之前，還有幾個監管和行政步驟需要完成，但我們正在積極與相關機構合作，以確保及時取得進展並遵守所有要求。我們預計這一過程將在政府停擺結束後不久完成。

Now let's turn to the steel and steelmaking coal markets during the third quarter, which provides the backdrop for our strong operational and financial results. Our markets faced headwinds from increased Chinese steel exports, subdued global demand, and oversupplied seaborne steelmaking coal markets. Nevertheless, our team's focus and resilience enabled us to achieve record quarterly sales volume.

現在讓我們來看看第三季的鋼鐵和煉鋼煤市場，這為我們強勁的營運和財務表現提供了背景。我們的市場面臨來自中國鋼鐵出口增加、全球需求疲軟以及海運煉鋼煤市場供應過剩的不利因素。儘管如此，我們團隊的專注和韌性使我們能夠實現創紀錄的季度銷售額。

The drivers underlying the weakness are the same as they have been for some time. First, exports of low-priced Chinese steel are up over 10% for the first nine months of the year compared to 2024, which was already a record year for Chinese steel exports. Second, with the exception of India, lackluster global steel demand continued because of trade uncertainty and tepid global economic activity. And third, the seaborne steelmaking coal markets remain under pressure due to strong supply as demonstrated by strong Chinese domestic steelmaking coal production and a slowdown in Chinese imports.

導致這種疲軟態勢的根本原因與一段時間以來一直如此。首先，今年前九個月中國低價鋼鐵出口量比 2024 年增加了 10% 以上，而 2024 年已經是中國鋼鐵出口創紀錄的一年。其次，除印度外，由於貿易不確定性和全球經濟活動疲軟，全球鋼鐵需求持續低迷。第三，由於中國國內煉鋼煤產量強勁，進口放緩，海運煉鋼煤市場供應仍緊張。

While there have been discussions in China of anti-involution and coal production controls combined with mine safety checks and shutdowns, those actions have fallen short in reality, while trade tensions continue to weigh heavily on global market sentiment. In addition, the European Union recently announced plans to protect the EU steel sector from the unfair impact of global steel overcapacity by limiting import volumes and doubling the level of tariffs to 50%.

儘管中國一直在討論反壟斷和煤炭生產控制，並結合礦山安全檢查和停產，但這些措施實際上並未取得預期效果，而貿易緊張局勢繼續嚴重影響全球市場情緒。此外，歐盟最近宣布了保護歐盟鋼鐵業免受全球鋼鐵產能過剩不公平影響的計劃，具體措施包括限制進口量並將關稅水平提高一倍至 50%。

These actions could lead to a recovery of steelmaking coal demand from Europe in the long term, but we do not anticipate a recovery anytime soon. Likewise, the steelmaking coal market remains oversupplied as demonstrated by the prolonged period of weak pricing.

從長遠來看，這些措施可能會使歐洲煉鋼煤需求復甦，但我們預計短期內不會出現復甦。同樣，煉鋼煤市場仍供過於求，價格長期疲軟就證明了這一點。

According to the World Steel Association monthly report, global pig iron production decreased by 1.5% for the first nine months of 2025 as compared to the prior year period. Pig iron production in China, which is the world's largest production region decreased by 1.1% for the same period. The rest of the world's pig iron production experienced a decline of 2.5% for the first nine months of 2025.

根據世界鋼鐵協會的月度報告，2025 年前九個月全球生鐵產量比去年同期下降了 1.5%。同期，全球最大的生鐵生產地區—中國的生鐵產量下降了1.1%。2025 年前九個月，世界其他地區的生鐵產量下降了 2.5%。

India remains a bright spot with a growth rate of 7% and is expected to continue growing with new blast furnace capacity expected to come online in the next year. Our strong sales volume was primarily driven by high contractual demand from our customers, combined with the strong performance of our existing mines and the additional commercial sales from our Blue Creek mine.

印度經濟仍保持強勁成長勢頭，成長率達到 7%，預計明年隨著新的高爐產能投入使用，經濟將持續成長。我們強勁的銷售量主要得益於客戶的高合約需求，以及現有礦場的良好表現和藍溪礦場的額外商業銷售。

This combination enabled Warrior to achieve a record high quarterly sales volume in the third quarter of 2.4 million short tons compared to 1.9 million in last year's same quarter, representing a 27% increase. We sold 378,000 tons of Blue Creek development steelmaking coal during the third quarter, which were contractual volumes sold primarily into Asia.

這一組合使 Warrior 在第三季度實現了創紀錄的季度銷售量，達到 240 萬短噸，而去年同期為 190 萬短噸，增長了 27%。第三季度，我們售出了 378,000 噸藍溪煉鋼煤，這些是合約規定的數量，主要銷往亞洲。

Our sales by geography for the third quarter break down as follows: 43% into Europe; 38% into Asia; and 18% in South America. The spot volume was 11% for the third quarter of 2025, which is primarily sold into Europe. For the full year, our spot volume is expected to be approximately 10% to 15% of total sales volume.

第三季依地域劃分的銷售額如下：歐洲佔 43%；亞洲佔 38%；南美洲佔 18%。2025 年第三季的現貨交易量為 11%，主要銷往歐洲。預計全年現貨銷量將佔總銷量的 10% 至 15%。

Production volume in the third quarter of 2025 was 2.2 million short tons compared to 1.9 million in the same quarter of last year, representing a 17% increase. Our existing mines continue to perform well and the continuous mining units at our Blue Creek mine produced 175,000 short tons during the third quarter, adding to the overall increase in production volume. Blue Creek production was lower than the second quarter as more time was spent on construction and development work for the longevity of the mine and the start-up of the longwall. Our coal inventory levels decreased slightly to 1.1 million tons at the end of September compared to the end of June this year.

2025 年第三季產量為 220 萬短噸，而去年同期為 190 萬短噸，成長了 17%。我們現有的礦場持續表現良好，藍溪礦場的連續採礦裝置在第三季生產了 175,000 短噸礦石，進一步促進了整體產量的成長。由於礦場長期營運和長壁採煤作業的啟動需要更多的時間用於建造和開發工作，Blue Creek 的產量低於第二季。截至9月底，我們的煤炭庫存水準略微下降至110萬噸，而今年6月底的庫存水準則為110萬噸。

I'll now ask Dale to address our third-quarter results in greater detail.

現在我將請戴爾更詳細地談談我們第三季的業績。

Thanks, Walt. Warrior was built to excel in all market conditions with high-quality steelmaking coal assets, a low-cost position globally, possessing a strong balance sheet with ample liquidity and a relentless focus on operational excellence.

謝謝你，沃特。Warrior 致力於在各種市場條件下取得卓越成就，擁有高品質的煉鋼煤資產、全球低成本優勢、強大的資產負債表和充足的流動性，並始終專注於卓越營運。

Each of these attributes were clearly demonstrated in our third-quarter results and recent accomplishments. From my vantage point, I believe few companies are able to embark on, and make continued strategic investments of over $1 billion in an organic growth project like Blue Creek without diluting shareholders with equity offerings or additional leverage. For Warrior, our ability to accomplish this is due to our incredibly talented workforce, which enables us to continuously focus on resource development and operational excellence.

這些特質在我們的第三季業績和近期成就中得到了充分體現。在我看來，很少有公司能夠在不透過股權發行或額外槓桿稀釋股東權益的情況下，啟動並持續對像 Blue Creek 這樣的有機成長項目進行超過 10 億美元的策略投資。對於 Warrior 而言，我們能夠取得這樣的成就，要歸功於我們才華橫溢的員工隊伍，這使我們能夠持續專注於資源開發和卓越營運。

Turning to market conditions we experienced this past quarter, our primary index, the PLV FOB Australia was relatively stable, averaging $166 per short ton. This average pricing has remained relatively consistent through the first and second quarters of this year. However, during the third quarter, the PLV CFR China index price recovered from its low points earlier in the year and averaged $162 per short ton. This average was over $11 per ton higher than the second quarter of this year. Although the arbitrage narrowed by the end of the third quarter, it remained closed most of the third quarter.

回顧上個季度的市場狀況，我們的主要指數－澳洲離岸價PLV相對穩定，平均價格為每短噸166美元。今年第一季和第二季度，平均價格一直保持相對穩定。然而，在第三季度，PLV CFR 中國指數價格從年初的低點回升，平均達到每短噸 162 美元。這一平均價格比今年第二季高出每噸 11 美元以上。雖然套利機會在第三季末有所縮小，但在第三季的大部分時間裡，套利機會仍然處於關閉狀態。

As for the main second-tier indices, the Australian LVHCC index price recovered from its low point in the second quarter and averaged $137 per short ton, while the US East Coast HVA index price established a low for the year and averaged $141 per short ton. As a result, we saw the relativity of the LVHCC index price compared to the PLV index price improved from 78% in the second quarter to an average 82% for the third quarter. This narrowing of the spread primarily drove our higher average net selling price in the third quarter compared to the second quarter this year.

至於主要的二線指數，澳洲LVHCC指數價格從第二季的低點回升，平均為每短噸137美元，而美國東岸HVA指數價格創下年內新低，平均為每短噸141美元。因此，我們看到LVHCC指數價格相對於PLV指數價格的相對性從第二季的78%提高到第三季的平均82%。與今年第二季相比，價差的縮小是導致我們第三季平均淨售價更高的主要原因。

On the contrary, the US East Coast High-Vol A price index recorded a decrease in relativity from 92% to 85% during the same period. We achieved a gross price realization of 83% for the third quarter compared to 93% in last year's same quarter, which was a function of relative index pricing, product mix, geography, tariffs and freight rates.

相反，同期美國東岸高波動率A股價格指數的相對值從92%下降到85%。第三季我們的毛價實現率為 83%，而去年同期為 93%，這主要取決於相對指數定價、產品組合、地理位置、關稅和運費。

The 83% achievement was 3% better than the second quarter of this year. This result was lower than our annual targeted range of 85% to 90%, primarily due to three things: first, the LVHCC index price relative to the PLV index price has widened compared to the historical relationship between these indices; second, we sold a higher mix of High-Vol A product versus premium low-vol product; and third, the higher High-Vol A volume has been sold primarily into the Pacific Basin on a CFR basis, which is net of freight cost.

這一完成率達到 83%，比今年第二季提高了 3%。這一結果低於我們 85% 至 90% 的年度目標範圍，主要原因有三：第一，LVHCC 指數價格相對於 PLV 指數價格的差距相對於這些指數的歷史關係有所擴大；第二，我們銷售的高容量 A 類產品相對於優質低容量產品的比例更高；第三，較高的高容量 A 類產品銷售主要以 CFR 銷售方式（不含盆地主要）。

As Walt noted earlier, the steelmaking coal markets continue to be pressured in the third quarter by the same factors. Let me first highlight our third quarter financial achievements compared to the second quarter of 2025. Our third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $71 million was 32% higher than the second quarter this year, primarily due for two reasons: first, our sales volumes were 6% higher, including an increase of 139,000 tons of Blue Creek coal with its inherently lower cost structure; and second, our average net selling prices were $6 per ton higher, primarily as a result of the higher High-Vol A pricing relative to PLV pricing of 82% versus 78% in the second quarter.

正如沃爾特之前指出的那樣，第三季煉鋼煤市場繼續受到相同因素的壓力。首先，讓我重點介紹一下我們第三季的財務表現與 2025 年第二季相比的成績。我們第三季調整後的 EBITDA 為 7,100 萬美元，比今年第二季成長了 32%，主要有兩個原因：首先，我們的銷售量成長了 6%，其中包括 Blue Creek 煤炭淨售價增加了 139,000 噸，其成本結構本身就較低；其次，我們的平均淨售價每噸上漲了 6 美元，這主要是因為揮發性的價格相對82%，而第二季 PLV 煤的價格為 78%。

The higher sales volumes, higher average net selling prices, and incremental Blue Creek sales volumes contributed to the higher operating cash flows of $67 million or $37 million of higher free cash flow than the second quarter of this year. Our spending for capital expenditures and mine development were a combined $30 million higher in the third quarter compared to the second quarter of this year, primarily related to the investment in Blue Creek. Excluding the Blue Creek capital expenditures and mine development investments in the third quarter, free cash flows were a positive $86 million.

更高的銷售量、更高的平均淨售價以及 Blue Creek 的增量銷售量促成了更高的經營現金流 6700 萬美元，或比今年第二季度更高的自由現金流 3700 萬美元。與今年第二季相比，我們第三季的資本支出和礦場開發支出總計增加了 3,000 萬美元，這主要與對 Blue Creek 的投資有關。如果排除第三季 Blue Creek 的資本支出和礦場開發投資，自由現金流為正 8,600 萬美元。

Now let us compare the third quarter of the current year to the prior year third quarter results. Warrior recorded net income of $37 million or $0.70 per diluted share compared to net income of $42 million or $0.80 per diluted share in the same quarter of 2024. We reported adjusted EBITDA of $71 million in the third quarter of this year compared to $78 million in the same quarter of last year. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 22% in the third quarter this year compared to 24% in the same quarter of last year.

現在讓我們將今年第三季的業績與去年第三季的業績進行比較。Warrior 錄得淨收入 3,700 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.70 美元，而 2024 年同期淨收入為 4,200 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.80 美元。今年第三季度，我們公佈的調整後 EBITDA 為 7,100 萬美元，而去年同期為 7,800 萬美元。今年第三季度，我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 22%，而去年同期為 24%。

On a per ton basis, our adjusted EBITDA margin was $30 per short ton for the third quarter this year compared to $42 in last year's third quarter. The decrease in the quarterly results was primarily driven by 21% lower average net selling prices and a 13% higher sales mix of High-Vol A product versus Premium Low-Vol product. These decreases were partially offset by 27% higher sales volume, including lower cost Blue Creek volumes and lower variable costs for transportation and royalties, plus controlling and managing our production costs.

以噸計算，我們今年第三季的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為每短噸 30 美元，而去年第三季為每短噸 42 美元。季度業績下降的主要原因是平均淨售價下降了 21%，以及高銷量 A 類產品與優質低銷量產品的銷售比例上升了 13%。這些下降部分被 27% 的銷售量成長所抵消，其中包括 Blue Creek 的低成本銷售、運輸和特許權使用費的可變成本降低，以及對生產成本的控制和管理。

Total revenues were $329 million in the third quarter of this year compared to $328 million in the same quarter of last year. The total increase of $1 million was primarily due to the 27% higher sales volume impact of $85 million, offset by the impact of a decrease in average gross selling prices of $81 million and a higher mix of High-Vol A volumes sold of $11 million. In addition, demurrage and other charges were $6 million lower compared to last year's third quarter. This resulted in an average net selling price of $136 per short ton in the third quarter compared to $172 per short ton in the third quarter of last year.

今年第三季總營收為 3.29 億美元，去年同期為 3.28 億美元。總計增加 100 萬美元，主要是由於銷售量增長 27% 至 8500 萬美元，但被平均毛售價下降 8100 萬美元以及高銷量 A 類產品銷量增加 1100 萬美元所抵消。此外，滯期費和其他費用比去年第三季減少了 600 萬美元。因此，第三季平均淨售價為每短噸 136 美元，而去年第三季為每短噸 172 美元。

Cash cost of sales was $237 million or 74% of mining revenues in the third quarter this year compared to $230 million or 72% of mining revenues in the third quarter of last year. Of the $7 million net increase in cash cost of sales, there was a $61 million increase in costs, which were attributed to the 27% increase in sales volumes, which includes the leverage of low-cost Blue Creek tons. These higher costs were offset partially by $54 million of lower costs that were driven by the lower variable transportation and royalty costs on 13% lower average steelmaking coal price indices.

今年第三季度，銷售現金成本為 2.37 億美元，佔採礦收入的 74%，去年第三季為 2.3 億美元，佔採礦收入的 72%。銷售現金成本淨增加 700 萬美元，其中成本增加了 6,100 萬美元，歸因於銷售量增加 27%，其中包括利用低成本的 Blue Creek 噸位。由於煉鋼煤平均價格指數下降 13%，運輸和特許權使用費等可變成本降低，部分抵消了這些較高的成本，從而減少了 5,400 萬美元的成本。

In addition, we rationalized and tightly managed our spending on supplies, repairs, maintenance expenses throughout the operations. Cash cost of sales per short ton, FOB port, was approximately $101 in the third quarter of this year compared to $123 in the same quarter last year. The decrease was primarily related to overall spending at the legacy mines of $11 per ton due to tightly managing our overall spending, lower variable transportation and royalty costs of $8 per ton on lower steelmaking coal prices and $4 per ton from the incremental sales of low-cost Blue Creek tons. While we were able to manage our spending tightly during the third quarter, some cash costs such as repairs and maintenance may be higher in future quarters due to potential unexpected breakdowns that would require investment to restore the equipment to a normal operating status.

此外，我們對營運過程中的物資供應、維修和維護費用進行了合理化和嚴格管理。今年第三季度，每短噸貨物的現金銷售成本（FOB 港口）約為 101 美元，而去年同期為 123 美元。下降的主要原因是，由於嚴格控制了整體支出，傳統礦山的總支出減少了 11 美元/噸；由於煉鋼煤價格下降，可變運輸和特許權使用費降低了 8 美元/噸；此外，低成本的 Blue Creek 煤的增量銷售也帶來了 4 美元/噸的收益。雖然我們在第三季度能夠嚴格控制支出，但由於可能發生意外故障，需要投資才能使設備恢復正常運作狀態，因此未來幾季的一些現金成本（例如維修和維護費用）可能會更高。

Our cash cost of production for the third quarter this year was 67% of our total cash cost per short ton compared to 66% in the same quarter last year. Overall, transportation and royalty costs were 33% of our cash cost of sales per short ton in the third quarter this year on lower average net selling prices compared to 34% in the same quarter last year. As a result of the lower average net selling price, our cash margin per short ton was $35 in the third quarter this year compared to $48 in the same quarter last year.

今年第三季度，我們的現金生產成本佔每短噸總現金成本的 67%，去年同期為 66%。今年第三季度，由於平均淨售價較低，運輸和特許權使用費佔每短噸現金銷售成本的 33%，而去年同期為 34%。由於平均淨售價較低，今年第三季我們每短噸的現金利潤為 35 美元，而去年同期為 48 美元。

SG&A expenses were $17 million and were about $6 million higher than the third quarter of last year, primarily due to higher employee-related expenses. Depreciation and depletion expenses were $44 million, which was higher than the third quarter last year, primarily due to the additional assets placed into service at Blue Creek and the higher sales volume. Our net interest income earned from cash investments was lower due to lower average cash balances and lower rates of return, combined with higher interest expense on newly leased equipment.

銷售、一般及行政費用為 1,700 萬美元，比去年第三季高出約 600 萬美元，主要原因是員工相關費用增加。折舊和損耗費用為 4,400 萬美元，高於去年第三季度，主要是由於 Blue Creek 投入使用的額外資產和更高的銷售額。由於平均現金餘額減少、回報率降低，加上新租賃設備的利息支出增加，我們從現金投資中獲得的淨利息收入減少。

We recorded an income tax benefit of approximately $14 million on pretax income of $23 million in the third quarter. Our year-to-date effective income tax rate varied from the statutory federal income tax rate of 21%, primarily due to tax benefits recognized for depletion expense, marginal gas well credits, and a foreign derived intangible income deduction, which exceeded forecasted pretax book income.

第三季度，我們在稅前收入 2,300 萬美元的基礎上，確認了約 1,400 萬美元的所得稅收益。今年迄今的實際所得稅率與 21% 的法定聯邦所得稅率有所不同，主要是由於確認的折耗費用、邊際天然氣井抵免和外國衍生無形收入扣除的稅收優惠超過了預測的稅前帳面收入。

Turning to cash flow. Free cash flow was a negative $20 million due to $105 million in operating cash flows less cash used for capital expenditures and mine development of $125 million. Capital spending totaled $83 million, which included $64 million spent on the Blue Creek project, as previously noted.

接下來談談現金流。由於營運現金流為 1.05 億美元，減去用於資本支出和礦場開發的現金 1.25 億美元，自由現金流為負 2,000 萬美元。資本支出總額為 8,300 萬美元，其中包括先前提到的 Blue Creek 專案的 6,400 萬美元。

Mine development costs for the Blue Creek project in the third quarter were $42 million and continue to be below budget as we continue to focus on cost control. Working capital decreased by $31 million during the third quarter, primarily due to lower accounts receivable and higher accrued expenses.

藍溪計畫第三季的礦場開發成本為 4,200 萬美元，由於我們繼續專注於成本控制，因此該成本繼續低於預算。第三季營運資金減少了 3,100 萬美元，主要原因是應收帳款減少和應計費用增加。

Our investment into Blue Creek is generating revenue and contributing positive operating and free cash flow to the overall company. We amended and extended our ABL facility, which increased the commitments available to be borrowed by $27 million to $143 million and extended the maturity date, giving us further financial flexibility and higher liquidity.

我們對 Blue Creek 的投資正在產生收入，並為公司整體貢獻正向的營運現金流和自由現金流。我們修改並延長了我們的資產抵押貸款融資安排，將可藉款承諾額度增加了 2,700 萬美元，達到 1.43 億美元，並延長了到期日，從而為我們提供了更大的財務靈活性和更高的流動性。

Our total available liquidity at the end of the third quarter this year was $525 million and consisted of cash and cash equivalents of $336 million, short- and long-term investments of $48 million, and $141 million available under our ABL facility.

截至今年第三季末，我們的可用流動資金總額為 5.25 億美元，其中包括現金及現金等價物 3.36 億美元、短期和長期投資 4,800 萬美元，以及根據我們的 ABL 融資安排可用的 1.41 億美元。

Let me turn to our revised outlook and guidance for the full-year 2025. As Walt previously noted and outlined in our earnings release, we have updated and increased our production sales volume guidance for the full year 2025 as a direct result of the early start-up of the longwall operations at Blue Creek. In addition, we lowered our guidance for cash cost of sales per ton, reflecting more recent actual results. While weak steelmaking coal market conditions are expected to persist for the remainder of the year, we remain optimistic about our long-term growth trajectory.

接下來，我將介紹我們對 2025 年全年的修訂展望和指導。正如沃爾特先前在我們的收益報告中指出和概述的那樣，由於藍溪長壁採煤作業提前啟動，我們已更新並提高了 2025 年全年的產量銷售量預期。此外，我們下調了每噸現金銷售成本的預期，以反映最近的實際結果。儘管預計今年剩餘時間內煉鋼煤市場疲軟的狀況仍將持續，但我們對公司的長期成長前景仍保持樂觀。

I'll now turn it back to Walt for his final comments.

現在我把麥克風交還給沃特，讓他做最後的總結發言。

Thanks, Dale. Looking ahead, we recognize persistent challenges in our customers' markets will continue to be driven by ongoing surplus in Chinese steel exports, heightened global trade tensions and subdued economic activity worldwide. However, we're hopeful that new trade agreements with key global partners will be supportive for our market and will materialize in the near term. Similarly, we expect the steelmaking coal markets to be pressured by additional supply, which is expected to come online over the next few quarters due to a combination of new capacity and the return of certain idle mines.

謝謝你，戴爾。展望未來，我們意識到，客戶市場持續面臨的挑戰將繼續受到中國鋼鐵出口持續過剩、全球貿易緊張局勢加劇以及全球經濟活動低迷的影響。然而，我們希望與主要全球夥伴達成的新貿易協定能夠對我們的市場起到支持作用，並能在近期內實現。同樣，我們預計煉鋼煤市場將受到額外供應的壓力，預計未來幾個季度，由於新增產能和某些閒置煤礦的恢復生產，新增供應將陸續上線。

We believe the pricing will remain weak and range-bound and supply rationalization will be necessary to balance market dynamics. While the steelmaking coal markets are expected to continue to be weak in the upcoming quarters, we're excited about the positive accomplishments in our business and with some of our key partners. For example, on October 13, the Alabama State Docks had its official ribbon-cutting ceremony to celebrate the completion of a multiyear project of deepening the draft and widening of the channel at the port. This project is expected to benefit both Warrior and our customers by allowing them to load heavier and larger vessels in the future.

我們認為價格將保持疲軟並維持在一定範圍內波動，需要進行供應合理化以平衡市場動態。儘管預計未來幾季煉鋼煤市場將繼續疲軟，但我們對公司業務以及與一些重要合作夥伴的積極成果感到興奮。例如，10 月 13 日，阿拉巴馬州碼頭舉行了正式的剪綵儀式，慶祝經過多年努力，港口航道加深加寬工程竣工。該項目預計將使 Warrior 和我們的客戶受益，使他們未來能夠裝載更重、更大的船舶。

In addition, several important machinery and equipment upgrades are being completed at the port over the next few quarters. These upgrades at the port are anticipated to enhance our operations and position the company for long-term success. We appreciate our long-standing partnership with the state.

此外，未來幾個季度，港口還將完成幾項重要的機械設備升級改造。預計港口的這些升級將提升我們的營運效率，並為公司的長期成功奠定基礎。我們珍惜與州政府的長期合作關係。

In conclusion, the combination of accelerated Blue Creek production and strategic reserve acquisitions significantly enhance our long-term growth strategy and provide Warrior a strong platform to meet long-term sustained global demand for premium steelmaking coal. Our world-class assets, low-cost position and disciplined capital deployment are a foundational strength. We remain focused on delivering long-term shareholder value through strategic resource development and operational excellence.

總而言之，加速 Blue Creek 煤礦生產和策略性儲量收購相結合，顯著增強了我們的長期成長策略，並為 Warrior 提供了一個強大的平台，以滿足全球對優質煉鋼煤的長期持續需求。我們擁有世界一流的資產、低成本優勢和嚴謹的資本部署，這是我們的基本優勢。我們將繼續專注於透過策略資源開發和卓越運營，為股東創造長期價值。

With that, we'd like to open the call for questions. Operator?

接下來，我們想接受大家的提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）Katja Jancic，BMO 資本市場。

First, congratulations on the early Blue Creek start-up and the quarter. And maybe starting on the Blue Creek, with the early start-up, how should we think about production next year?

首先，恭喜 Blue Creek 早期啟動和本季業績出色。或許可以從 Blue Creek 的早期啟動階段開始，我們該如何考慮明年的生產計畫？

Well, we're still -- we're working through our budget right now. But as you know, our plan was not to have started that until midyear. So naturally, that number is going to be enhanced greatly. But we're still working on that.

嗯，我們目前還在——我們正在製定預算。但正如您所知，我們的計劃是到年中才開始這項工作。所以，這個數字自然會大幅提升。但我們仍在努力解決這個問題。

I'm hesitant to give you an exact number on where we'll be. I think it's going to be, a lot of it is going to be market-driven as we get into next year as opposed to operationally driven. But we're working on that right now.

我不太願意告訴你我們具體會在哪裡。我認為，進入明年後，很多事情將由市場驅動，而不是由營運驅動。但我們正在努力解決這個問題。

And then maybe secondly, the CapEx is coming down on the Blue Creek project. Can you remind us how you're thinking about capital allocation?

其次，可能是藍溪計畫的資本支出正在下降。您能否提醒我們一下您是如何考慮資本配置的？

Yes, thanks for the question. Well, I think it would be similar to what we've done in the past when we generate the excess free cash flow above the needs of the business, and we will return cash via different methods, which will be the fixed quarterly dividend; which I expect would be higher in the future, supplement that with some cash special dividends and possibly some stock buybacks along the way, selected.

是的，謝謝你的提問。嗯，我認為這和我們過去的做法類似，當我們產生的自由現金流超過業務需求時，我們會透過不同的方式返還現金，包括固定的季度股息（我預計未來會更高）、一些現金特別股息，以及可能進行一些股票回購（視情況而定）。

Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

Nick Giles，B. Riley Securities。

Guys, I really want to commend you on this incredible achievement. I know Tuscaloosa breeds champions, but it's clearly not just football. So my question was, what does this mean from a hiring perspective? Do you still need incremental workers to ramp up here?

各位，我真的想對你們所取得的這項驚人成就表示祝賀。我知道塔斯卡盧薩盛產冠軍，但這顯然不僅限於橄欖球。所以我的問題是，從招募的角度來看，這代表什麼？這裡還需要逐步增加人手嗎？

And if sales are expected to be market-driven, would you plan to build inventory? Or would you really toggle production just on market conditions?

如果預計銷售將由市場驅動，您會計劃建立庫存嗎？還是你真的會只根據市場狀況來調整產量？

Well, I think the first part of your question on how many people, we still need more people. We're okay running at the pace we are right now, and -- but we'll continue to hire over the next year easily and probably continuing beyond that. I think next year, we'll be looking at a balance. We'll look at -- as I've said before, we really wanted to make sure that we had a certain percentage of the tons tied up before we ramped up. I'm not going to say 4.5 is the number for next year, but I think it's probably going to be closer to that type of a number for Blue Creek.

嗯，關於你問題的第一部分，也就是我們需要多少人，我認為我們仍然需要更多的人。我們目前的發展速度還可以接受，而且——在未來一年裡，我們將繼續輕鬆招聘，並且很可能會持續更長時間。我認為明年我們會尋求平衡。我們會考慮——正如我之前所說，我們真的想確保在提高產量之前，我們已經鎖定了一定比例的噸位。我不會說明年的數字是 4.5，但我認為 Blue Creek 的數字可能會更接近這個範圍。

And so, we'll be looking at cash flow. We'll be looking at what's happening in the market. We don't want to build a bunch of inventory, and we don't want to flood the market either. So we're going to be balancing all those factors to make sure we maximize the value for the company.

因此，我們將關注現金流。我們將關注市場動態。我們不想囤積大量庫存，也不想讓市場供過於求。因此，我們將權衡所有這些因素，以確保公司價值最大化。

Well, I appreciate that. And then maybe just looking to the fourth quarter here. I mean, I think if I do the math right, your guidance could imply a 20% increase in sales. Can you just walk us through what, maybe on a mine-by-mine basis, what -- how sales could shift quarter-over-quarter?

嗯，我很感激。然後或許我們可以把目光投向第四季。我的意思是，如果我的計算沒錯的話，你的指導意見可能意味著銷售額成長 20%。您能否逐一礦場為我們詳細介紹一下，銷售額如何逐季變動？

Well, I don't have that breakout by mine. But with what we said is two-thirds of that volume of Blue Creek for the year should be sold this year, 1.2 million tons. And we've sold about half of that so far through the end of the third quarter. So you're going to see a big jump just because of the Blue Creek tons there, Nick. So that's the biggest driver in the fourth quarter.

嗯，我這邊沒有出現那種爆發。但根據我們的說法，今年藍溪水產量的三分之二（120萬噸）應該會賣出。截至第三季末，我們已經售出了大約一半。所以你會看到價格大幅上漲，這都歸因於藍溪礦區的大量儲量，尼克。所以這是第四季最大的驅動因素。

Got it. Thanks for that, Dale. Maybe one last one, if I could. It's good to see you were able to tuck in such a significant amount of reserves at a reasonable cost. I think you mentioned this is relevant to Mine 4 and Blue Creek. But my question is, how much does this acquisition influence any potential decision to add another longwall to your operating footprint?

知道了。謝謝你，戴爾。如果可以的話，也許可以再來最後一個。很高興看到你能夠以合理的成本累積如此可觀的儲備金。我想你提到這跟 4 號礦井和藍溪有關。但我的問題是，此次收購會在多大程度上影響您未來是否決定增加另一塊長壁工作面？

How much capital could be required later down the road? Appreciate any color there.

未來可能需要多少資金？欣賞那裡的任何顏色。

Well, what I've said in the past is an additional longwall, you're probably looking at incremental capital probably $300 million or so because you're going to have to add three CM units, you're going to have to add another longwall, you're going to have to add modules to the preparation plant. So there's a lot of infrastructure and just a lot of build-out that would have to happen.

正如我之前所說，如果增加一條長壁採煤巷，你可能需要考慮大約 3 億美元的額外資本投入，因為你需要增加三個煤層氣處理單元，你需要增加一條長壁採煤巷，你需要為選煤廠增加模組。所以需要進行大量的基礎建設和開發工作。

In terms of making that decision, we had enough reserves without the BLM to add a second longwall if we thought the market justified it. This just makes us even more efficient because some of the places where we were going to have to skip around some coal, now we have control of it. So this is going to make us a lower cost, more efficient operation at both Mine 4 and Blue Creek as we roll forward.

就做出這個決定而言，即使沒有土地管理局的許可，我們也有足夠的儲備，如果我們認為市場需要，可以再建造一個長壁工作面。這讓我們效率更高了，因為以前我們必須繞道運輸煤炭的地方，現在我們可以自己控制煤炭運輸了。因此，隨著我們不斷推進，這將使我們在 4 號礦和藍溪礦的營運成本更低、效率更高。

Understood. Well guys, congratulations again and continue best of luck.

明白了。各位，再次恭喜你們，祝福你們一切順利。

George Eadie, UBS.

喬治伊迪，瑞銀集團。

Really impressive performance here, good set of numbers. So well done. Can I just follow up on that question before? So another longwall, is it a price decision? Like if you were guaranteed, say, 200 metric benchmark PLV, would you do it like the spreadsheet math, it clearly works when we get to sort of mid-'26 as the first longwall at Blue Creek is ramped up. How would we go about thinking about the decision for another one?

表現非常出色，數據亮眼。做得好！我可以再問一下之前的問題嗎？所以又是一座長壁工壁，這是價格因素導致的嗎？例如，如果你保證達到 200 指標基準 PLV，你會像電子表格數學那樣計算嗎？顯然，當 2026 年中期 Blue Creek 的第一條長壁煤礦開始投產時，這種方法是有效的。我們該如何考慮是否要再做一次決定？

I think the real -- what we need to do is we need to stretch this first longwall as tight as we can and see just what it's capable of. What we said is $6 million. I don't know where the top end is for that one longwall and how many CMs it takes you to support that one longwall if you're running it flat out throughout the year.

我認為真正需要做的，是盡可能拉緊第一塊長壁工作面，看看它究竟能做到什麼程度。我們說的是600萬美元。我不知道那條長壁採煤機的最高工作面是多少，也不知道如果全年全力運轉，需要多少公分的煤才能支撐這條長壁採煤機。

So the real question is going to be where is that limit? And then beyond that, what's that next longwall get you? So I think we're years away from making that decision because I think there's still so much headroom on the first longwall.

所以真正的問題是，這個極限在哪裡？那麼，再往後看，下一塊長壁採煤工作面又能帶給你什麼呢？所以我認為我們離做出那個決定還有好幾年的時間，因為我認為第一塊長壁煤礦還有很大的提升空間。

Yeah. And then maybe to Dale, you just sort of call out those three factors, discounts, more High-Vol A, more Asia sales. How do I triangulate that with the low-vol hard coking index flat quarter-on-quarter? Your realized price was up quarter-on-quarter, like that caught me. Like how do I triangulate that going forward as well, like more Blue Creek sales, more Asia sales?

是的。然後也許可以跟戴爾說，你只要指出這三個因素：折扣、更多高銷售量 A、更多亞洲銷售。如何用低波動率硬焦化指數季度環比持平來驗證這一點？你的成交價環比上漲，這讓我很驚訝。例如，我該如何進一步調整策略，例如增加 Blue Creek 的銷售額，增加亞洲地區的銷售額？

Is it likely that this was just a one-off really strong realized pricing quarter? Or how do I sort of triangulate those factors?

這是否可能只是個別季度的強勁實際定價？或者，我該如何綜合考慮這些因素呢？

Well, I don't think it's a one-off quarter. I think if you go back to my remarks, I said is, look, the increase from the second quarter to the third quarter was two things: 6% higher sales volume and a net realized price of $6 a ton higher. Well, that $6 a ton came primarily from the increase in the LVHCC during the third quarter. So that relativity rose from 78% in the second quarter to 82%.

嗯，我不認為這只是個別現象。我認為，如果你回顧我的發言，我說過，從第二季到第三季的成長有兩個原因：銷量成長了 6%，淨實現價格每噸上漲了 6 美元。嗯，每噸 6 美元的成長主要來自第三季 LVHCC 的上漲。因此，相對比例從第二季的 78% 上升到 82%。

So that spread narrowed right? So that drove that $6 a ton, which just flowed to the bottom line.

所以價差縮小了，對吧？所以這推高了每噸 6 美元的價格，直接轉換為利潤。

So, think of it that way, pick your PLV price and then pick your relativity, okay? So just for example, $200 PLV, 80% relativity, and you're going to be pretty close.

所以，你可以這樣想，先選定你的PLV價格，然後再選定你的相對性，好嗎？舉個例子，PLV 為 200 美元，相對機率為 80%，那麼結果就相當接近了。

So that relativity, that 82%, that 4% quarter-on-quarter jump is what I was talking about there, sorry, Dale, that caught me off guard, like more high-vol A sales more into Asia, like how do we think about that going forward in Q4, I guess, as well?

所以，我剛才說的就是相對增長，也就是 82% 或 4% 的季度環比增長，抱歉，戴爾，這讓我有點措手不及，就像更多高銷量 A 類產品銷往亞洲一樣，我想，我們該如何看待第四季度的情況呢？

Well, we don't break it out by geography on a forward-looking basis, but we do think that in the long term, more volume will go into Asia long-term as we ramp up Blue Creek. So that will be a gradual climb over the next year or two.

嗯，我們不會按地域進行前瞻性細分，但我們確實認為，從長遠來看，隨著 Blue Creek 的逐步投產，亞洲的銷售量將會持續成長。所以未來一兩年內，這將會是一個循序漸進的攀升過程。

Yeah. Okay. No, and just last one on pricing --

是的。好的。不，最後一個關於定價的問題。--

(multiple speakers) Yeah, I was just going to say one more thing, George, to think about there is. Customers have their different time schedules throughout the year. So that's why we might sell more into Europe in one quarter versus another quarter. So it's hard for us to forecast that into the future as to what geography it's going to go into.

（多人發言）是啊，喬治，我本來還想再說一件事，讓你好好想想。顧客一年四季都有不同的時間安排。所以這就是為什麼我們某個季度在歐洲的銷售額可能會比另一個季度高的原因。因此，我們很難預測它未來會進入哪個地理區域。

So we don't have that preciseness very far out. We know about a quarter ahead, but not too much further out than that.

所以我們無法獲得遠距離的精確數據。我們大概能預測未來四分之一的時間，但再往後就不太清楚了。

Yeah. Okay. And then just what was saying quite bearish sort of met coal prices at the start, that benchmark prices up at $197 and flat starting to now talk quite optimistic the demand outlook ex China. Any sort of color you can give.

是的。好的。然後，一開始人們對冶金煤價格持相當悲觀的態度，基準價格上漲至 197 美元並保持平穩，但現在對中國以外的需求前景卻持相當樂觀的態度。任何你能想到的顏色。

Well, I think I always try to be conservative in my expectations. And that's the way we run our company. And we make sure that we're able to respond to any positive market news, but we make sure we're prepared in the case of any negative market news.

嗯，我覺得我總是盡量保持保守的預期。這就是我們公司的經營方式。我們會確保能夠對任何利好的市場消息做出反應，同時也確保做好應對任何利空市場消息的準備。

I don't -- it's hard for me to see a reason why prices will go up or at best, they'll maintain the level they're at now, I think. But it takes one event to cause this price to shift dramatically. But I don't know what that one event is right now.

我不這麼認為——我很難看出價格上漲的理由，或者充其量，我認為價格會維持在目前的水平。但只需要一個事件就可能導致價格發生劇烈變化。但我現在還不知道那件事具體是什麼。

Yeah. It's hard to see on the demand side what the catalyst is. So then you're thinking about the supply side. And as we said in our remarks, earlier, look, there's the Blue Creek coming online next year. There's other mines that are restarting next year. So you're going to have additional supply coming on that's going to keep that pretty balanced, we think, going forward.

是的。從需求方面來看，很難看出催化劑是什麼。所以，你現在考慮的是供給面的問題。正如我們之前所說，明年藍溪水力發電廠就要投入使用了。明年還有其他礦場也將重新開工。所以，我們認為，未來會有額外的供應增加，這將使供需保持相當平衡。

So it's hard to be too optimistic right now about what the next year or two looks like. Other than we should perform well because of Blue Creek coming online and it's such a much low-cost structure, we're going to benefit from that.

所以現在很難對未來一兩年的前景抱持太高的期望。除了 Blue Creek 投產後我們應該能取得好成績，而且它的成本非常低之外，我們還會從中受益。

(Operator Instructions) Nathan Martin, Benchmark Company.

（操作說明）Nathan Martin，Benchmark 公司。

Congratulations on the early longwall startup. I just want to come back to the pricing question quickly. I think maybe what we're trying (inaudible) is how should we think about realizations versus the benchmark kind of going forward as you bring on these additional Blue Creek tons? Do you think you can get back to kind of your targeted 85% to 90% range of the benchmark?

恭喜你們早期啟動長壁採煤計畫。我只想快速地回到定價問題上來。我認為我們正在嘗試的是（聽不清楚），隨著 Blue Creek 新增噸位，我們應該如何看待未來的實際收益與基準之間的關係？你認為你能恢復到你設定的基準線85%到90%的目標範圍嗎？

Well, that's what our target is. So yeah, I think we can get there. It just depends on what the markets do. I mean we can't control that. So, my crystal ball says maybe.

嗯，這就是我們的目標。是的，我覺得我們能做到。這完全取決於市場走勢。我的意思是，我們無法控制這一點。所以，我的水晶球告訴我，也許吧。

Yeah, prices change all the time for different reasons. And it's just, I mean, if you can't predict it, I can't predict it, right, what prices will be tomorrow. So just the realizations are what they are, we're 83%. Our targeted range is 85% to 90%. We're creeping up.

是的，價格會因為各種原因隨時變動。我的意思是，如果你都無法預測，那我也無法預測，對吧，明天的價格會是多少。所以，實際結果就是這樣，我們達到了 83%。我們的目標範圍是 85% 到 90%。我們正在悄悄靠近。

It depends on what continues to happen with LVHCC pricing in the Pacific Basin. That will be a big determinant of where we get to.

這取決於太平洋盆地LVHCC定價的後續趨勢。這將是決定我們最終走向何方的重要因素。

I think said another way, we definitely think that we will get back to that 85% to 90%. The question is just when.

換句話說，我們絕對相信我們會恢復到 85% 到 90% 的水平。問題只是何時發生。

Yeah.

是的。

We can't tell you if that's going to be two quarters from now or 1.5 years from now. We don't know when that will occur.

我們無法告訴你那會是兩個季度後還是1.5年後。我們不知道這種情況何時會發生。

Makes sense. That's fair. And then as far as Blue Creek sales are concerned, Dale, I think you said that you guys were maybe initially targeting those tons towards Asia. Is that correct? And then how many Blue Creek tons have you guys been able to contract at this point with starting up the longwall early?

有道理。這很合理。至於 Blue Creek 的銷售情況，Dale，我想你說過你們最初可能打算把這些噸位銷往亞洲。是這樣嗎？那麼，在提前啟動長壁開採的情況下，你們目前已經承包了多少噸藍溪煤？

Well, the majority of the sales volume so far, yes, has gone into Asia. And right now, these tons are being shipped to really trials, right, to get confirmation of contracts. So I don't -- it's a little early with the volume that we sold to give a percentage of how much we've contracted because of these trials. So I don't want to get into that yet.

是的，到目前為止，大部分銷售額都流向了亞洲。現在，這些噸貨物正被運送到真正的試驗場進行測試，以確認合約​​的有效性。所以，現在根據我們目前的銷售量來估算我們因這些試驗而縮減的合約金額的百分比還為時過早。所以我現在不想談這個。

If we have better, and hopefully, we will have better information during our fourth quarter earnings call about that. But right now, it's a little bit too early because we only have about $1.2 million for this year.

如果我們有更好的訊息，希望我們能在第四季財報電話會議上提供更多資訊。但現在還為時過早，因為我們今年只有大約 120 萬美元的資金。

I appreciate that. And then maybe just one final one on the cost side of the equation. Good to see cash cost guidance for this year down again another $5. Just want to make sure, is there any change in your price assumption there that would have impacted that update?

我很感激。最後，或許還可以從成本方面考慮最後一個問題。很高興看到今年的現金成本預期再次下調了5美元。我想確認一下，您的價格假設是否有任何變化，從而影響了這次更新？

And then last quarter, Dale, I think you mentioned you built in some maintenance and repair costs. I think you touched on that briefly in your prepared remarks as well. Is that still the case in that range?

戴爾，上個季度，我想你提到你計入了一些維護和維修費用。我認為您在事先準備好的發言稿中也簡要地提到了這一點。在這個範圍內，情況仍然如此嗎？

Yeah, that's kind of baked into that range. And really, the price assumption hasn't changed because the PLV has averaged virtually the same amount each and every quarter this year.

是的，這在某種程度上已經包含在這個範圍內了。事實上，價格假設並沒有改變，因為今年每季的 PLV 平均值幾乎都相同。

All right, very helpful. I'll leave it there. Appreciate the time and best of luck in the fourth quarter.

好的，很有幫助。我就說到這兒吧。感謝您抽出時間，並祝您在第四季一切順利。

Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

Nick Giles，B. Riley Securities。

I just wanted to follow up on that last question on the cost side. I think guidance does still imply a slight tick up in the fourth quarter. So I wanted to see if there's anything specific that could drive that or if that's maybe just an added level of conservatism.

我只是想就成本方面最後一個問題做個後續說明。我認為，業績指引仍暗示第四季業績將略有成長。所以我想看看是否有具體因素導致了這種情況，或者這是否只是保守主義程度的提高。

Yeah. It's just baking in what if, right? As I said in my prepared remarks, we've been pretty tight on repairs and maintenance all year. Something can break, and we've got to fix it in the fourth quarter, and that's covering those kind of things.

是的。這只是在假設「如果…會怎樣」的問題上醞釀，對吧？正如我在事先準備好的演講稿中所說，我們全年都在嚴格控制維修和保養方面的開支。有些東西可能會出問題，我們需要在第四季把它修好，這就是涵蓋這類事情的內容。

And we have a little tick up and we have recently in the last couple of weeks on the prices to $196. So there could be some change there a little bit on the cost. So that's all baked into that range. And we're averaging at -- for the year-to-date, we're averaging at the bottom of the range. So a slight tick up would be very, very minor.

價格最近幾週略有上漲，達到 196 美元。所以價格方面可能會有一些小的變動。所以這些都包含在這個範圍內了。今年迄今為止，我們的平均值處於該範圍的最低點。所以，即使小幅上漲，影響也非常非常小。

Got it. I appreciate the clarification.

知道了。感謝您的澄清。

Alright. Thanks, Nick.

好吧。謝謝你，尼克。

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call over back to Mr. Scheller for any closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題了。現在我將把電話轉回給謝勒先生，請他作總結發言。

That concludes our call this afternoon. Thank you again for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Warrior.

今天下午的通話到此結束。再次感謝您今天蒞臨。感謝您對Warrior的關注。

Thank you, and that concludes today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝大家，今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。